COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-03-14 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-03-14

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-03-14

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-24 --2021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 1126 1275 1525 804 437 780 1774 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 3477 4582 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 2285 1199 3307 17521 1550 3317 2250 319 962 4696 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 508 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 1302 2002 2935 611 2895 1143 2214 1302 1418 1131 1362 528 1222 456 3005 192 2422 2091 1033 1466 3801 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7754 684 1939 403 774 995 3960 513 7900 4326 551 1426 5019 1559 1550 1634 862 267 3466 481 896 4767 2335 1159 4687 2036 1878 4677 1747 663 1048 1254 885 1468 1093 1560 891 1505 3182 1563 1625 976 1274 417 1353 3625 1653 982 1189 1007 2291 930 917 560 6120 482 1022 779 884 2871 1519 7106 1464 848 1510 1137 3360 1261 323 3318 2105 817 2104 1115 3254 1188 1498 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4136 1707 1188 1044 2486 3914 1327 1158 3872 1474 1689 886 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 3609 2021 6117 3336 4514 1732 11029 6320 803 3519 1176 1238 694 9205 3848 1963 580 540 10177 1515 3625 516 696 246 2554 503 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1348 3381 825 189 1495 532 1263 1329 4887 1519 5335 518 1141 1531 659 963 1941 1111 1060 3709 1824 526 1868 2932 835 1179 2965 3811 1403 5264 1790 839 4269 264 1562 291 1808 2223 3085 2613 2589 315 2466 2199 4529 2322 1065 1632 1932 1026 776 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 4307 1311 892 1297 1206 259 344 4748 5886 951 1365 1073 4438 857 1175 8405 632 3240 2347 2862 1130 1408 768 1599 1218 2982 587 863 1470 763 4031 1059 875 1101 1609 1007 1377 2510 3022 2379 4073 1253 1583 3012 1783 1077 992 1278 3842 3631 3812 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 890 2290 3757 968 844 990 2555 1394 1055 812 1551 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 422 1143 5038 4407 3811 4284 2987 1563 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 836 1620 922 2543 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 4157 1188 796 397 1077 2155 1437 1060 2087
Days since peak 36 36 49 49 49 36 49 77 36 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 76 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 76 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 76 49 49 49 49 49 76 49 75 49 75 49 75 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 36 36 49 76 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 75 49 49 75 49 49 49 49 36 36 49 36 49 49 36 49 49 49 36 49 36 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 36 49 49 75 36 76 49 49 49 49 49 20 49 49 49 49 49 49 76 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 36 49 49 49 49 49 49 36 49 76 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 77 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 36 49 49 76 36 75 49 49 49 49 49 77 49 36 49 49 49 49 49 20 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 36 49 76 49 36 49 49 49 74 49 49 49 49 49 49 20 77 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 36 49 49 49 49 49 36 49 49 49 49 36 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 36 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 36 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 75 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 75 49 49 49 49 49 76 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 20 49 49 36 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 76 49 49 49 49 49
Last total 60575 65451 17173 27912 36054 30561 50280 49187 19739 77044 42985 38433 38083 59663 22228 65613 115228 82218 22216 60022 50568 35728 52920 57635 119253 74963 323069 32515 53254 44875 19947 23709 88804 18947 117686 37575 161621 43927 33713 95262 24090 39244 85911 150220 34562 98479 30170 29832 33570 30931 61393 49054 61645 37511 64781 31144 41359 97985 32219 45633 27996 43343 86987 11991 55823 55418 32118 46043 114341 107103 30138 30824 27934 37618 152191 16939 57447 4735 25005 20801 24902 131460 20148 164933 102702 14813 36821 114242 46229 34264 36753 25216 23252 78119 17233 58037 98574 88832 30684 100019 36138 46891 110357 40907 23186 35774 36976 31653 44298 32663 30005 25877 33498 93575 37019 57981 29422 39507 12633 44260 90156 40295 25434 33494 36357 51311 30534 27469 39220 106833 37225 29805 20859 23285 63085 36832 205742 38355 23223 33906 27630 82740 41615 25419 83408 44817 23313 58199 27622 76876 29605 46735 74912 28664 31558 26432 34235 83042 45256 33884 26534 53100 93098 33412 39078 88108 49328 27389 24703 38996 13944 34347 67304 40732 31964 38506 82106 53972 127458 55080 102988 41419 251930 113764 26529 87593 31042 30027 50211 162249 70509 51160 17610 17156 180994 34014 85524 14689 28508 18520 65748 19988 24338 44246 53501 43772 49054 28574 88533 24467 18753 22136 41127 42355 34958 97390 37202 101056 42057 63783 41306 23738 28743 47466 37768 31278 121989 47221 20075 58893 69622 19437 30840 73748 94741 39406 102207 42105 18576 74813 4351 46975 24547 29017 38630 68323 76374 63386 24904 47661 51910 94210 43606 26334 47841 62101 68052 19475 59935 13574 72343 25799 22751 22797 85047 35080 25941 37066 31419 10337 12252 89290 103883 27357 25889 32998 89206 26459 34877 170495 4771 83819 48674 66303 38097 31445 21188 44794 32439 85539 20312 24565 39551 24640 111279 34963 26870 39569 35860 40900 33009 50063 73065 55188 93867 32537 46610 61088 40402 27157 26767 27014 94182 65986 79704 35270 29873 90100 27734 66276 43849 66138 65025 74725 24672 26289 32908 56690 39139 35851 25466 39118 29426 57990 38566 37333 25504 15400 98448 77651 33198 26088 34934 37053 107655 86281 83484 106680 69639 42534 32304 36731 40767 23894 35611 42604 12165 30705 35110 25388 57807 29584 43451 61890 107963 128522 34390 45662 101169 32650 51962 82290 29795 30761 36138 33267 52316 32630 27520 57519
Last daily increment 469 595 130 135 192 318 271 259 223 221 295 170 246 388 189 125 370 190 107 285 332 122 335 297 455 260 570 103 93 140 60 91 177 75 699 237 351 229 230 232 117 76 445 827 242 458 128 107 151 73 144 92 148 239 321 111 272 231 224 99 142 196 477 44 227 284 231 327 550 461 153 239 159 137 1203 177 334 131 35 105 84 1192 187 523 271 75 184 417 207 101 122 139 45 303 124 199 368 852 210 252 339 265 336 451 177 296 322 261 272 138 308 147 220 371 164 476 183 266 86 236 263 146 132 156 235 514 272 170 174 861 82 232 150 99 202 115 1411 213 178 110 131 322 258 54 306 148 92 232 130 261 145 198 257 217 73 197 252 270 242 153 156 705 257 133 279 262 321 44 247 293 44 357 276 186 156 284 216 296 308 171 372 216 667 237 173 377 109 120 239 499 157 242 145 113 511 124 426 60 242 23 313 158 239 324 117 190 110 252 418 173 39 254 65 372 167 334 148 223 96 204 467 224 128 135 256 203 937 202 140 552 265 63 120 220 434 238 253 137 57 136 38 221 52 46 427 254 489 426 50 154 213 245 100 106 333 585 114 62 308 57 129 133 68 156 211 124 134 173 173 48 63 183 175 95 254 236 380 97 182 572 55 587 116 194 359 340 92 327 149 583 160 147 214 177 1002 274 138 289 146 345 111 105 307 304 370 141 273 203 157 122 130 239 346 200 307 236 257 286 158 322 234 95 353 173 66 163 267 261 280 257 197 275 148 201 183 279 55 118 329 258 214 174 109 325 255 211 291 457 274 227 115 261 308 103 180 306 99 276 128 141 470 206 276 225 210 1030 238 232 442 164 356 198 136 212 93 197 224 129 138 274
Last week 2394 3443 582 568 837 1658 1251 1334 1114 1117 1336 678 1157 1702 761 600 1906 986 520 1307 1367 601 1509 1400 2393 1300 2733 492 417 696 273 352 828 432 3141 1059 1624 1163 1132 1173 551 315 2247 4045 1148 2105 614 536 660 275 744 419 715 1196 1399 464 1310 1058 886 495 667 967 2265 213 1009 1398 1113 1336 2400 2340 691 1008 765 588 6353 887 1617 618 240 449 359 5371 835 2203 1290 316 857 1926 1042 400 643 615 264 1295 510 1000 1547 3448 990 1097 1683 1409 1590 2237 877 1407 1686 1124 1244 777 1719 641 1247 1818 687 2169 857 1098 372 1082 1174 706 618 633 1150 2779 1211 715 942 4280 439 1023 662 454 791 583 7068 937 773 550 603 1375 1228 367 1409 769 457 1087 571 1290 536 1007 1250 940 264 928 1100 1288 1224 746 662 3767 1350 626 1262 1232 1556 255 1202 1211 172 1361 1404 825 736 1386 997 1371 1596 818 1770 971 3418 1053 880 1677 504 661 1238 2528 824 1222 702 619 2051 583 1776 330 1041 109 1382 714 949 1576 613 965 478 1289 1771 822 256 1307 292 1697 724 1447 664 1044 417 1005 2420 936 581 559 1181 969 4912 961 696 2321 1111 298 569 1226 1835 1101 1253 612 280 606 231 1028 331 211 1862 1203 2208 1755 309 706 969 1096 446 474 1451 2740 716 251 1351 244 561 643 268 832 1039 643 632 834 712 277 319 911 823 509 1431 1049 1841 500 952 2628 311 2591 565 1062 1704 1742 455 1622 697 2710 781 561 1025 825 5264 1273 680 1354 644 1535 519 445 1576 1343 1624 687 1315 1008 809 511 650 1290 1628 702 1182 1014 1169 1136 654 1464 1186 479 1521 796 339 706 1232 1095 1154 1239 893 1164 723 948 936 1235 259 526 1469 1346 1031 790 462 1415 1145 958 1380 2155 1319 988 537 1235 1417 525 852 1558 484 1465 638 636 2408 941 1252 1131 1103 4587 1122 1132 2022 723 1391 866 649 1134 400 961 1006 648 590 1285
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-052021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-152021-12-29 --2021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-12-272021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 72 159 115 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 33 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 67 56 82 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 72 101 274 115 49 31 184 116 384 105 164 123 94 256 1294 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 143 118 343 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 303 200 152 243 70 131 87 77 91 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 329 219 85 143 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 59 18 128 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 73 35 58 22 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 25 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 56 26 58 49 49 57 36 30 35 6 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 199 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 57 27 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 20 36 58 32 24 2 75 54 120 38 54 61 39 68 157 83 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 51 19 108 49 51 68 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 17 56 25 104 38 28 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 22 58 34 40 149 59 28 35 35 42 55 94 56 65 34 49 36 27 38 118 78 85 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 30 34 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 36 172 70 94 86 69 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 28 31 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-03-15 to 2022-03-21

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-03-14 60575 65451 17173 27912 36054 30561 50280 49187 19739 77044 42985 38433 38083 59663 22228 65613 115228 82218 22216 60022 50568 35728 52920 57635 119253 74963 323069 32515 53254 44875 19947 23709 88804 18947 117686 37575 161621 43927 33713 95262 24090 39244 85911 150220 34562 98479 30170 29832 33570 30931 61393 49054 61645 37511 64781 31144 41359 97985 32219 45633 27996 43343 86987 11991 55823 55418 32118 46043 114341 107103 30138 30824 27934 37618 152191 16939 57447 4735 25005 20801 24902 131460 20148 164933 102702 14813 36821 114242 46229 34264 36753 25216 23252 78119 17233 58037 98574 88832 30684 100019 36138 46891 110357 40907 23186 35774 36976 31653 44298 32663 30005 25877 33498 93575 37019 57981 29422 39507 12633 44260 90156 40295 25434 33494 36357 51311 30534 27469 39220 106833 37225 29805 20859 23285 63085 36832 205742 38355 23223 33906 27630 82740 41615 25419 83408 44817 23313 58199 27622 76876 29605 46735 74912 28664 31558 26432 34235 83042 45256 33884 26534 53100 93098 33412 39078 88108 49328 27389 24703 38996 13944 34347 67304 40732 31964 38506 82106 53972 127458 55080 102988 41419 251930 113764 26529 87593 31042 30027 50211 162249 70509 51160 17610 17156 180994 34014 85524 14689 28508 18520 65748 19988 24338 44246 53501 43772 49054 28574 88533 24467 18753 22136 41127 42355 34958 97390 37202 101056 42057 63783 41306 23738 28743 47466 37768 31278 121989 47221 20075 58893 69622 19437 30840 73748 94741 39406 102207 42105 18576 74813 4351 46975 24547 29017 38630 68323 76374 63386 24904 47661 51910 94210 43606 26334 47841 62101 68052 19475 59935 13574 72343 25799 22751 22797 85047 35080 25941 37066 31419 10337 12252 89290 103883 27357 25889 32998 89206 26459 34877 170495 4771 83819 48674 66303 38097 31445 21188 44794 32439 85539 20312 24565 39551 24640 111279 34963 26870 39569 35860 40900 33009 50063 73065 55188 93867 32537 46610 61088 40402 27157 26767 27014 94182 65986 79704 35270 29873 90100 27734 66276 43849 66138 65025 74725 24672 26289 32908 56690 39139 35851 25466 39118 29426 57990 38566 37333 25504 15400 98448 77651 33198 26088 34934 37053 107655 86281 83484 106680 69639 42534 32304 36731 40767 23894 35611 42604 12165 30705 35110 25388 57807 29584 43451 61890 107963 128522 34390 45662 101169 32650 51962 82290 29795 30761 36138 33267 52316 32630 27520 57519
2022-03-15 60960 66000 17260 28010 36190 30840 50490 49400 19910 77220 43190 38550 38270 59940 22360 65700 115500 82380 22300 60230 50800 35830 53170 57860 119600 75070 323500 32600 53330 45000 19990 23780 88950 19020 118200 37750 161900 44120 33900 95430 24170 39280 86260 150900 34750 98800 30270 29920 33670 30980 61520 49110 61770 37650 64940 31220 41570 97990 32390 45670 28110 43500 87360 12020 55990 55630 32300 46260 114700 107500 30270 30990 28060 37720 153700 17090 57710 4888 25020 20880 24950 132400 20290 165300 103000 14870 36970 114500 46400 34340 36860 25310 23250 78340 17320 58200 98900 89490 30850 100200 36390 47110 110700 41340 23330 36000 37220 31840 44460 32790 30200 25980 33780 93880 37150 58330 29560 39600 12700 44420 90320 40410 25490 33620 36530 51870 30730 27590 39360 107500 37300 29980 20970 23360 63250 36930 205900 38540 23350 34000 27730 82930 41860 25480 83610 44940 23380 58380 27720 77070 29720 46930 75110 28820 31600 26580 34410 83260 45460 34010 26660 53640 93320 33520 39330 88320 49590 27430 24860 39210 13960 34460 67300 40860 32090 38740 82250 54170 127700 55210 103200 41580 252500 114000 26680 87790 31120 30140 50400 162700 70650 51350 17700 17260 181400 34110 85830 14740 28670 18530 65950 20070 24520 44500 53590 43930 49150 28880 88830 24600 18750 22330 41170 42620 35080 97620 37300 101200 42080 63940 41770 23900 28830 47520 37930 31440 122800 47390 20180 59330 69800 19490 30930 73930 95090 39620 102400 42200 18620 74910 4516 47170 24590 29050 38850 68500 76730 63690 24970 47780 52070 94400 43680 26420 48080 62430 68170 19520 60170 13600 72450 25900 22790 22940 85210 35210 26040 37170 31530 10390 12300 89440 104000 27460 26170 33170 89510 26540 35030 170900 4833 84300 48760 66470 38370 31670 21260 45060 32560 85970 20440 24680 39720 24780 112000 35170 26980 39790 35970 41140 33090 50130 73300 55410 93870 32650 46820 61240 40530 27240 26870 27230 94480 66140 79890 35440 30060 90280 27840 66520 44030 66210 65280 74860 24730 26410 33140 56900 39360 36040 25600 39310 29540 58150 38660 37540 25560 15490 98660 77870 33330 26210 35000 37280 107900 86450 83670 107100 69850 42700 32370 36930 41000 23980 35730 42850 12240 30940 35220 25500 58120 29740 43690 62100 108100 129300 34580 45850 101500 32770 52200 82440 29920 30910 36200 33410 52520 32740 27620 57740
2022-03-16 61300 66530 17320 28070 36290 31110 50660 49610 20000 77400 43340 38620 38400 60120 22450 65720 115800 82500 22370 60370 50940 35900 53350 58030 120100 75250 323500 32660 53380 45110 20000 23830 89060 19080 118500 37880 162100 44290 34030 95470 24250 39280 86550 151300 34890 99100 30350 30000 33740 31000 61620 49110 61870 37820 65160 31280 41750 98070 32530 45710 28180 43640 87650 12020 56100 55780 32430 46400 115000 107800 30380 31120 28160 37790 154800 17230 57910 5012 25050 20930 24950 133000 20390 165500 103200 14910 37080 114800 46540 34380 36950 25380 23270 78490 17380 58350 99100 90010 30960 100400 36590 47310 110900 41700 23450 36180 37320 31950 44620 32910 30410 26050 33970 94130 37190 58590 29670 39750 12740 44590 90500 40490 25580 33730 36660 52360 30860 27670 39420 108000 37370 30120 21050 23430 63360 37000 206600 38680 23440 34070 27800 83140 42050 25550 83620 45020 23430 58570 27790 77280 29810 47090 75260 28920 31600 26710 34540 83450 45640 34110 26760 53820 93510 33600 39520 88490 49810 27470 24870 39370 13990 34630 67440 40990 32190 38920 82280 54390 127900 55310 103200 41720 253000 114100 26800 88040 31180 30240 50560 163000 70760 51480 17790 17340 181700 34180 86040 14790 28760 18530 66180 20170 24660 44690 53670 44070 49240 29150 89040 24710 18790 22410 41180 42790 35150 97780 37360 101200 42080 64110 42150 24020 28890 47520 38110 31570 123600 47530 20260 59690 69880 19530 31010 73970 95380 39790 102600 42280 18650 74970 4616 47320 24590 29080 38850 68700 76960 63890 25040 47870 52230 94560 43740 26480 48250 62430 68280 19550 60370 13600 72530 25980 22820 23060 85320 35310 26120 37270 31610 10440 12350 89570 104100 27540 26430 33300 89760 26610 35170 171200 4920 84720 48770 66590 38570 31910 21320 45270 32660 86270 20520 24730 39870 24900 112000 35300 27080 39960 36070 41310 33140 50140 73470 55560 94000 32740 46970 61350 40620 27300 26980 27440 94740 66270 80080 35550 30180 90350 27930 66720 44140 66230 65450 74970 24770 26490 33340 57060 39550 36180 25690 39450 29620 58280 38780 37670 25610 15540 98670 78050 33500 26330 35000 37420 108000 86580 83880 107500 69990 42820 32370 37070 41160 24040 35840 43030 12300 31180 35320 25590 58130 29860 43860 62300 108300 129700 34720 45990 101800 32860 52350 82550 30010 31100 36260 33510 52670 32830 27690 57900
2022-03-17 61660 67070 17390 28140 36400 31370 50840 49810 20120 77580 43500 38710 38560 60330 22550 65770 116100 82640 22440 60540 51120 35990 53560 58230 120500 75440 323700 32720 53430 45230 20030 23890 89190 19150 118800 38020 162300 44460 34190 95570 24320 39290 86850 151900 35050 99400 30440 30080 33820 31040 61730 49110 61980 38010 65360 31340 41930 98190 32680 45770 28270 43780 87970 12020 56230 55960 32590 46570 115300 108100 30490 31250 28260 37870 156100 17380 58140 5121 25080 21000 24960 133700 20510 165800 103400 14960 37200 115100 46690 34440 37050 25450 23300 78680 17450 58500 99400 90550 31090 100600 36820 47520 111200 42100 23580 36370 37490 32090 44790 33020 30640 26140 34160 94400 37270 58880 29790 39900 12790 44770 90700 40580 25660 33830 36800 52840 31010 27770 39510 108600 37440 30270 21140 23500 63490 37080 207400 38830 23550 34150 27880 83380 42250 25620 83730 45130 23490 58750 27870 77490 29910 47260 75430 29040 31610 26830 34680 83640 45820 34220 26870 54150 93710 33690 39730 88680 50040 27510 24950 39540 14010 34840 67580 41130 32290 39120 82370 54610 128200 55410 103300 41870 253500 114300 26930 88300 31250 30340 50730 163400 70880 51630 17910 17430 182000 34270 86290 14830 28880 18540 66370 20280 24810 44910 53750 44220 49320 29420 89280 24830 18820 22540 41200 42990 35250 97970 37440 101300 42080 64280 42530 24150 28960 47520 38290 31710 124400 47690 20350 60060 70000 19580 31090 74090 95680 39970 102700 42360 18690 75050 4681 47480 24610 29110 38950 68890 77240 64130 25100 47970 52400 94740 43810 26550 48440 62500 68390 19590 60580 13600 72620 26060 22850 23190 85450 35410 26210 37400 31700 10490 12390 89710 104300 27630 26650 33440 90030 26690 35310 171600 4993 85140 48820 66730 38800 32190 21380 45500 32760 86610 20620 24810 40020 25020 112300 35460 27180 40140 36170 41510 33200 50170 73660 55740 94190 32840 47140 61480 40720 27370 27070 27630 95010 66410 80270 35680 30320 90470 28030 66930 44280 66270 65650 75090 24820 26580 33540 57240 39750 36330 25800 39610 29720 58420 38930 37830 25660 15610 98770 78240 33650 26450 35000 37590 108200 86720 84090 107900 70160 42950 32380 37230 41350 24110 35960 43230 12370 31410 35420 25680 58290 29990 44050 62520 108500 130300 34870 46150 102200 32960 52540 82680 30120 31270 36320 33630 52840 32930 27770 58090
2022-03-18 62010 67600 17460 28220 36520 31540 51020 50010 20260 77760 43680 38810 38720 60560 22660 65840 116400 82780 22520 60710 51300 36080 53770 58420 120800 75610 324000 32800 53490 45340 20060 23950 89320 19220 119200 38170 162500 44630 34350 95700 24400 39310 87160 152400 35220 99700 30530 30170 33900 31070 61850 49140 62090 38170 65530 31410 42120 98290 32830 45820 28370 43920 88290 12020 56380 56150 32740 46740 115600 108400 30600 31390 28370 37950 157000 17480 58370 5236 25110 21060 24990 134500 20630 166200 103600 15010 37330 115400 46840 34500 37150 25540 23330 78860 17530 58650 99700 91090 31230 100800 37050 47730 111400 42320 23700 36570 37680 32240 44960 33140 30790 26220 34330 94680 37360 59180 29920 40050 12850 44930 90880 40680 25740 33940 36950 53210 31170 27860 39620 109200 37510 30420 21230 23570 63620 37160 208400 38990 23650 34240 27970 83560 42450 25680 83870 45230 23550 58940 27950 77650 30010 47430 75610 29170 31630 26970 34820 83850 46010 34330 26980 54550 93920 33780 39940 88880 50280 27550 25060 39720 14040 35020 67710 41250 32400 39320 82480 54800 128400 55530 103500 42020 254000 114400 27060 88540 31330 30440 50900 163800 71000 51790 18000 17530 182300 34350 86550 14880 29000 18550 66570 20360 24950 45130 53840 44360 49410 29630 89530 24950 18840 22690 41230 43200 35340 98160 37530 101500 42080 64430 42750 24280 29040 47520 38470 31860 125100 47840 20440 60430 70140 19630 31170 74230 95990 40150 102900 42450 18730 75130 4739 47640 24640 29140 39110 69040 77530 64390 25160 48070 52560 94920 43880 26620 48650 62700 68500 19630 60790 13620 72710 26150 22880 23320 85600 35520 26300 37520 31800 10540 12440 89860 104400 27720 26800 33580 90300 26770 35450 172000 5057 85560 48880 66880 39030 32370 21450 45730 32870 86970 20720 24890 40180 25140 112800 35620 27280 40330 36280 41700 33260 50220 73860 55930 94380 32940 47320 61620 40830 27440 27170 27780 95270 66540 80430 35820 30480 90610 28120 67150 44440 66330 65860 75210 24870 26680 33740 57420 39940 36500 25910 39770 29820 58570 39050 38000 25710 15680 98910 78440 33790 26560 35040 37770 108400 86870 84300 108200 70340 43090 32420 37400 41540 24180 36080 43450 12430 31580 35520 25780 58500 30120 44240 62720 108600 130900 35030 46320 102500 33060 52730 82810 30220 31390 36380 33750 53000 33030 27850 58280
2022-03-19 62370 68130 17540 28310 36630 31730 51210 50220 20400 77950 43860 38900 38880 60800 22770 65920 116700 82930 22590 60900 51480 36170 53980 58620 121200 75770 324300 32870 53550 45460 20090 24010 89460 19280 119600 38320 162700 44810 34510 95850 24470 39340 87480 153000 35380 100000 30630 30250 33990 31110 61960 49170 62200 38320 65710 31470 42320 98370 32970 45860 28460 44060 88630 12040 56520 56340 32900 46930 115900 108700 30710 31540 28480 38040 158000 17580 58600 5308 25140 21130 25030 135200 20740 166500 103800 15050 37460 115700 47000 34560 37250 25620 23350 79060 17600 58800 99900 91630 31370 101000 37280 47930 111700 42560 23830 36760 37890 32390 45120 33260 30980 26310 34480 94960 37460 59490 30040 40190 12900 45070 91070 40790 25810 34050 37100 53600 31340 27960 39740 109800 37580 30570 21330 23640 63760 37250 208900 39150 23760 34320 28050 83720 42650 25740 84020 45340 23620 59080 28040 77850 30100 47600 75800 29300 31660 27100 34970 84050 46200 34440 27090 54980 94130 33870 40150 89080 50520 27580 25170 39900 14060 35180 67810 41360 32510 39530 82600 54990 128600 55640 103700 42170 254600 114600 27190 88750 31400 30540 51070 164100 71120 51950 18080 17620 182600 34440 86810 14930 29130 18550 66760 20450 25100 45350 53940 44510 49500 29850 89790 25070 18860 22850 41270 43420 35450 98360 37610 101600 42080 64590 43040 24410 29110 47540 38640 32000 125600 47990 20530 60800 70280 19670 31260 74380 96290 40330 103100 42550 18770 75210 4795 47810 24670 29170 39280 69200 77830 64640 25220 48180 52700 95110 43950 26700 48850 62920 68610 19670 61000 13640 72790 26240 22910 23450 85750 35620 26390 37630 31900 10580 12490 90010 104500 27810 26980 33730 90580 26850 35600 172400 5120 85980 48950 67020 39260 32580 21520 45970 32970 87340 20830 24980 40340 25270 113300 35800 27380 40520 36380 41910 33330 50280 74070 56120 94560 33040 47510 61760 40950 27510 27260 27930 95540 66680 80530 35960 30630 90760 28220 67370 44590 66380 66070 75340 24920 26780 33940 57600 40120 36660 26030 39930 29920 58720 39170 38170 25760 15750 99070 78640 33930 26670 35080 37960 108600 87020 84500 108600 70530 43240 32470 37570 41740 24250 36180 43660 12500 31740 35620 25880 58740 30260 44430 62870 108800 131600 35200 46490 102800 33160 52930 82950 30330 31520 36440 33880 53170 33130 27940 58470
2022-03-20 62730 68670 17610 28390 36760 31950 51390 50420 20560 78140 44040 39000 39050 61040 22880 66010 117000 83080 22670 61090 51680 36260 54210 58830 121600 75990 324700 32940 53610 45580 20130 24070 89600 19350 120100 38480 163000 44990 34680 96010 24580 39370 87800 153500 35550 100400 30720 30340 34080 31150 62080 49220 62320 38520 65910 31550 42510 98500 33120 45930 28560 44210 88970 12060 56670 56540 33060 47120 116200 109000 30830 31690 28600 38130 159100 17700 58840 5413 25170 21200 25070 136100 20870 166800 104100 15100 37590 116000 47170 34620 37360 25710 23380 79260 17680 58960 100200 92180 31520 101100 37520 48140 112000 42880 23970 36970 38110 32550 45340 33380 31220 26410 34650 95250 37560 59810 30170 40360 12960 45250 91250 40890 25920 34160 37250 54040 31510 28070 39870 110400 37650 30720 21430 23710 63890 37340 209800 39310 23870 34410 28140 83950 42860 25810 84200 45460 23680 59240 28120 78050 30200 47770 75990 29440 31700 27230 35130 84270 46390 34560 27200 55450 94350 33970 40360 89280 50760 27620 25310 40090 14080 35370 68010 41470 32620 39740 82740 55210 128900 55760 103900 42320 255100 114800 27320 89000 31470 30650 51240 164500 71240 52120 18200 17710 182900 34530 87090 14980 29270 18570 66950 20560 25250 45580 54030 44660 49590 30110 90060 25190 18890 23030 41300 43660 35550 98570 37710 101700 42080 64740 43360 24550 29200 47580 38830 32150 126400 48150 20630 61170 70440 19720 31340 74540 96600 40520 103300 42640 18820 75300 4843 47980 24700 29200 39470 69410 78150 64910 25280 48290 52870 95290 44030 26770 49070 63200 68720 19710 61220 13670 72880 26340 22950 23580 85900 35730 26480 37770 32000 10630 12530 90160 104700 27900 27190 33890 90860 26930 35750 172800 5179 86400 49020 67180 39510 32830 21580 46210 33080 87730 20940 25070 40500 25400 113900 35980 27490 40720 36490 42120 33410 50340 74280 56320 94790 33140 47700 61900 41060 27590 27360 28110 95810 66820 80710 36110 30790 90920 28320 67600 44760 66440 66300 75470 24970 26890 34150 57780 40310 36830 26150 40100 30030 58870 39330 38350 25810 15820 99250 78840 34090 26800 35130 38160 108700 87170 84730 109000 70720 43390 32540 37750 41940 24330 36310 43890 12570 31930 35730 25980 59010 30400 44630 63070 109000 132200 35360 46660 103100 33270 53140 83090 30430 31680 36500 34010 53340 33230 28030 58670
2022-03-21 63090 69200 17690 28480 36880 32250 51580 50630 20720 78330 44230 39100 39220 61290 23000 66100 117300 83240 22750 61280 51880 36350 54430 59040 122000 76220 325000 33020 53670 45690 20160 24130 89740 19420 120500 38640 163200 45170 34850 96180 24670 39400 88130 154100 35730 100800 30820 30420 34180 31190 62200 49260 62440 38730 66170 31620 42710 98680 33260 46020 28660 44350 89310 12080 56820 56740 33230 47310 116600 109400 30940 31840 28720 38220 159800 17870 59090 5547 25200 21270 25120 136900 20990 167200 104300 15150 37730 116400 47330 34690 37460 25800 23420 79460 17760 59110 100500 92730 31660 101400 37760 48350 112300 43300 24100 37180 38340 32720 45550 33500 31510 26500 34860 95540 37660 60130 30300 40570 13010 45450 91490 41000 26030 34270 37420 54490 31680 28170 40000 111000 37720 30880 21530 23790 64030 37430 210900 39470 23990 34500 28240 84230 43060 25860 84390 45570 23750 59450 28210 78290 30300 47940 76180 29580 31740 27370 35290 84480 46590 34670 27310 55940 94560 34070 40570 89490 51010 27660 25450 40280 14110 35630 68230 41650 32740 39950 82880 55460 129200 55880 104100 42470 255700 114900 27460 89310 31550 30750 51420 164900 71370 52290 18320 17800 183300 34610 87370 15030 29420 18580 67210 20690 25400 45820 54130 44810 49680 30290 90340 25320 18920 23210 41340 43890 35660 98780 37800 101900 42080 64890 43780 24690 29280 47640 39050 32300 127200 48310 20730 61550 70590 19770 31430 74720 96910 40700 103500 42740 18860 75390 4880 48150 24740 29230 39680 69630 78470 65190 25340 48400 53020 95480 44100 26850 49290 63480 68830 19750 61450 13700 72970 26440 22980 23710 86060 35840 26580 37920 32100 10670 12580 90310 104800 27980 27430 34040 91150 27010 35890 173200 5237 86830 49100 67340 39760 33100 21650 46460 33190 88120 21050 25160 40660 25520 114500 36160 27590 40930 36600 42340 33480 50410 74490 56520 95110 33250 47890 62050 41180 27670 27470 28330 96080 66950 80910 36260 30960 91080 28420 67830 44920 66500 66520 75600 25020 26990 34350 57970 40500 37010 26270 40270 30140 59030 39490 38540 25860 15900 99440 79050 34270 26940 35180 38360 108900 87330 84990 109400 70910 43540 32600 37930 42150 24400 36460 44110 12640 32190 35830 26080 59300 30540 44830 63250 109200 132900 35540 46830 103500 33390 53350 83230 30540 31880 36580 34140 53510 33340 28120 58880

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-03-15 to 2022-03-21

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-03-14 60575 65451 17173 27912 36054 30561 50280 49187 19739 77044 42985 38433 38083 59663 22228 65613 115228 82218 22216 60022 50568 35728 52920 57635 119253 74963 323069 32515 53254 44875 19947 23709 88804 18947 117686 37575 161621 43927 33713 95262 24090 39244 85911 150220 34562 98479 30170 29832 33570 30931 61393 49054 61645 37511 64781 31144 41359 97985 32219 45633 27996 43343 86987 11991 55823 55418 32118 46043 114341 107103 30138 30824 27934 37618 152191 16939 57447 4735 25005 20801 24902 131460 20148 164933 102702 14813 36821 114242 46229 34264 36753 25216 23252 78119 17233 58037 98574 88832 30684 100019 36138 46891 110357 40907 23186 35774 36976 31653 44298 32663 30005 25877 33498 93575 37019 57981 29422 39507 12633 44260 90156 40295 25434 33494 36357 51311 30534 27469 39220 106833 37225 29805 20859 23285 63085 36832 205742 38355 23223 33906 27630 82740 41615 25419 83408 44817 23313 58199 27622 76876 29605 46735 74912 28664 31558 26432 34235 83042 45256 33884 26534 53100 93098 33412 39078 88108 49328 27389 24703 38996 13944 34347 67304 40732 31964 38506 82106 53972 127458 55080 102988 41419 251930 113764 26529 87593 31042 30027 50211 162249 70509 51160 17610 17156 180994 34014 85524 14689 28508 18520 65748 19988 24338 44246 53501 43772 49054 28574 88533 24467 18753 22136 41127 42355 34958 97390 37202 101056 42057 63783 41306 23738 28743 47466 37768 31278 121989 47221 20075 58893 69622 19437 30840 73748 94741 39406 102207 42105 18576 74813 4351 46975 24547 29017 38630 68323 76374 63386 24904 47661 51910 94210 43606 26334 47841 62101 68052 19475 59935 13574 72343 25799 22751 22797 85047 35080 25941 37066 31419 10337 12252 89290 103883 27357 25889 32998 89206 26459 34877 170495 4771 83819 48674 66303 38097 31445 21188 44794 32439 85539 20312 24565 39551 24640 111279 34963 26870 39569 35860 40900 33009 50063 73065 55188 93867 32537 46610 61088 40402 27157 26767 27014 94182 65986 79704 35270 29873 90100 27734 66276 43849 66138 65025 74725 24672 26289 32908 56690 39139 35851 25466 39118 29426 57990 38566 37333 25504 15400 98448 77651 33198 26088 34934 37053 107655 86281 83484 106680 69639 42534 32304 36731 40767 23894 35611 42604 12165 30705 35110 25388 57807 29584 43451 61890 107963 128522 34390 45662 101169 32650 51962 82290 29795 30761 36138 33267 52316 32630 27520 57519
2022-03-15 61030 66040 17260 28010 36200 30870 50500 49420 19940 77250 43190 38540 38280 59950 22360 65730 115600 82370 22300 60250 50800 35820 53160 57870 119700 75170 323600 32590 53320 44990 19990 23780 88950 19020 118200 37760 161900 44120 33900 95460 24190 39290 86320 150900 34750 98900 30280 29930 33690 30980 61520 49120 61770 37720 65010 31230 41580 98170 32370 45720 28110 43500 87360 12020 56000 55650 32290 46260 114800 107500 30240 31000 28070 37710 153500 17110 57720 4864 25040 20870 24960 132300 20280 165400 103000 14870 36960 114600 46400 34330 36870 25310 23290 78340 17320 58210 98800 89420 30850 100200 36410 47180 110700 41350 23330 36010 37320 31840 44510 32800 30290 25990 33750 93880 37130 58350 29570 39680 12700 44440 90380 40410 25540 33610 36560 51860 30730 27600 39370 107600 37300 29990 20970 23360 63240 36930 207300 38520 23350 34000 27730 82990 41820 25470 83630 44950 23390 58400 27720 77120 29720 46920 75120 28820 31610 26580 34420 83250 45460 34020 26640 53790 93340 33520 39250 88320 49620 27430 24950 39210 13970 34560 67520 40890 32080 38730 82290 54200 127700 55220 103300 41580 252600 114000 26680 87880 31140 30150 50420 162700 70640 51360 17730 17260 181400 34120 85860 14750 28670 18530 66010 20100 24500 44510 53600 43940 49130 28820 88850 24610 18780 22350 41170 42640 35090 97660 37310 101200 42120 63950 41840 23890 28840 47570 37970 31460 122900 47410 20190 59260 69830 19490 30940 73970 95070 39600 102500 42210 18620 74930 4415 47150 24600 29050 39000 68540 76720 63700 24940 47790 52100 94440 43680 26410 48120 62580 68160 19520 60170 13620 72430 25900 22800 22950 85220 35190 26050 37210 31550 10380 12310 89470 104100 27440 26130 33180 89530 26550 35030 171000 4827 84280 48790 66470 38370 31810 21260 45070 32550 85960 20430 24690 39740 24790 112300 35180 26980 39790 35960 41160 33100 50160 73320 55410 94150 32650 46830 61260 40530 27240 26880 27290 94470 66120 79920 35430 30060 90320 27850 66530 44050 66220 65290 74860 24730 26410 33130 56880 39340 36060 25610 39330 29550 58160 38710 37540 25550 15490 98730 77880 33360 26230 35020 37280 107900 86460 83730 107100 69860 42690 32390 36940 41000 23980 35760 42840 12240 31010 35220 25500 58300 29740 43670 62100 108100 129300 34590 45860 101500 32790 52210 82460 29900 30930 36210 33420 52470 32740 27630 57760
2022-03-16 61390 66560 17330 28070 36290 31120 50690 49630 20080 77440 43350 38620 38430 60160 22460 65820 115800 82510 22370 60430 50960 35890 53340 58050 120000 75360 323900 32650 53380 45080 20020 23830 89070 19080 118600 37890 162200 44270 34050 95630 24270 39330 86650 151400 34890 99200 30360 30010 33770 31010 61640 49160 61870 37890 65220 31280 41750 98300 32470 45790 28200 43650 87670 12030 56110 55840 32430 46430 115100 107700 30320 31120 28170 37790 154400 17240 57930 4981 25070 20930 25000 132900 20360 165600 103100 14910 37070 114900 46550 34380 36960 25390 23330 78520 17390 58370 99000 89830 30980 100300 36630 47360 110900 41680 23450 36200 37530 31970 44660 32910 30540 26070 33930 94150 37210 58650 29690 39820 12740 44600 90550 40520 25620 33690 36690 52260 30870 27680 39500 108200 37360 30130 21060 23430 63340 37010 208200 38620 23430 34080 27800 83200 41970 25520 83800 45060 23450 58580 27790 77330 29800 47050 75310 28930 31630 26710 34560 83450 45620 34120 26730 54270 93540 33600 39380 88510 49830 27470 25080 39370 13990 34700 67710 41010 32170 38910 82430 54390 127900 55330 103500 41720 253100 114100 26810 88120 31200 30250 50610 163100 70730 51520 17820 17350 181600 34200 86090 14790 28760 18540 66220 20190 24620 44690 53700 44090 49180 29010 89100 24710 18830 22540 41210 42820 35170 97860 37400 101400 42170 64110 42210 24000 28910 47640 38130 31590 123600 47550 20270 59540 69980 19530 31020 74130 95330 39740 102700 42300 18660 75010 4484 47280 24640 29080 39240 68730 76990 63910 24980 47880 52220 94600 43740 26460 48320 62890 68250 19550 60360 13640 72510 25980 22830 23060 85350 35270 26130 37320 31640 10410 12350 89610 104200 27500 26340 33310 89770 26620 35170 171300 4886 84590 48860 66600 38590 32010 21330 45290 32650 86290 20520 24750 39880 24890 112800 35330 27070 39960 36050 41330 33160 50220 73510 55580 94360 32740 47000 61390 40630 27310 26980 27470 94690 66220 80080 35550 30180 90450 27950 66740 44200 66290 65460 74970 24770 26500 33290 57020 39490 36230 25710 39480 29640 58310 38840 37680 25570 15540 98920 78080 33510 26350 35080 37450 108000 86600 83940 107300 70010 42820 32440 37110 41170 24060 35870 43030 12290 31240 35310 25590 58550 29870 43830 62250 108300 129800 34750 46020 101800 32890 52380 82580 29980 31100 36260 33550 52600 32830 27690 57940
2022-03-17 61770 67120 17400 28130 36410 31380 50880 49830 20240 77630 43520 38710 38580 60370 22560 65910 116100 82650 22440 60600 51140 35970 53520 58240 120400 75560 324300 32710 53430 45190 20050 23870 89190 19130 118900 38040 162400 44430 34200 95800 24330 39360 86960 152000 35040 99500 30440 30090 33870 31040 61750 49200 61980 38050 65420 31350 41930 98460 32580 45860 28280 43790 87980 12050 56250 56030 32570 46590 115400 108100 30410 31250 28270 37870 155500 17380 58150 5094 25110 20980 25030 133600 20460 165900 103300 14960 37200 115100 46680 34430 37060 25470 23370 78690 17450 58530 99200 90250 31100 100500 36870 47550 111100 42040 23580 36390 37760 32110 44820 33020 30780 26150 34100 94400 37290 58920 29820 39950 12790 44750 90730 40620 25690 33780 36840 52670 31020 27770 39640 108800 37410 30270 21140 23490 63440 37090 208900 38730 23520 34160 27880 83410 42140 25580 84000 45160 23520 58740 27860 77520 29880 47170 75500 29040 31670 26850 34700 83640 45790 34230 26820 54830 93750 33680 39530 88700 50060 27500 25250 39530 14020 34890 67880 41140 32270 39100 82570 54600 128200 55430 103700 41860 253500 114300 26930 88360 31270 30350 50800 163400 70840 51670 17920 17440 181900 34270 86330 14830 28860 18550 66410 20280 24730 44880 53800 44240 49240 29200 89330 24810 18870 22740 41240 43020 35270 98060 37480 101500 42220 64270 42580 24110 28980 47710 38300 31710 124400 47690 20360 59830 70130 19580 31100 74300 95600 39880 102800 42380 18700 75090 4544 47420 24690 29110 39500 68910 77260 64130 25020 47960 52350 94750 43800 26520 48530 63240 68350 19590 60550 13670 72590 26070 22860 23180 85490 35350 26220 37430 31730 10440 12400 89740 104300 27570 26550 33440 90010 26690 35300 171600 4943 84930 48940 66730 38810 32270 21390 45500 32750 86640 20620 24820 40020 25010 113500 35490 27170 40140 36140 41510 33230 50280 73700 55770 94590 32840 47170 61530 40740 27370 27070 27660 94920 66320 80230 35690 30310 90590 28040 66940 44370 66360 65650 75080 24820 26590 33450 57170 39630 36380 25820 39630 29740 58450 38970 37850 25600 15590 99110 78270 33650 26460 35140 37620 108200 86730 84130 107600 70190 42950 32500 37270 41360 24130 35980 43220 12340 31480 35400 25680 58840 29990 43990 62420 108400 130300 34890 46170 102100 32990 52570 82720 30080 31260 36310 33670 52730 32920 27780 58110
2022-03-18 62120 67620 17470 28210 36520 31580 51070 50030 20380 77830 43690 38790 38730 60580 22650 66010 116400 82780 22510 60770 51310 36050 53710 58410 120800 75740 324700 32770 53490 45280 20090 23920 89300 19200 119300 38180 162600 44580 34360 95960 24400 39400 87270 152500 35180 99700 30530 30170 33940 31080 61840 49250 62080 38210 65590 31410 42110 98580 32680 45920 28370 43940 88280 12070 56370 56210 32720 46750 115700 108400 30500 31380 28370 37940 156200 17490 58360 5206 25140 21040 25080 134200 20550 166200 103500 15000 37310 115400 46820 34480 37150 25550 23400 78860 17530 58680 99400 90670 31230 100600 37070 47750 111400 42310 23690 36570 37960 32240 44990 33120 30990 26220 34300 94640 37370 59180 29940 40080 12830 44900 90900 40720 25770 33860 36970 53000 31160 27850 39780 109400 37470 30410 21230 23550 63540 37160 209800 38840 23610 34230 27960 83590 42280 25630 84180 45260 23580 58910 27930 77690 29960 47310 75670 29160 31700 26960 34830 83810 45960 34330 26900 55290 93960 33760 39680 88880 50270 27530 25420 39670 14040 35050 68050 41240 32370 39280 82710 54770 128400 55540 103900 41980 254000 114400 27050 88590 31350 30440 50990 163700 70950 51820 18000 17520 182200 34350 86560 14880 28970 18570 66600 20360 24850 45080 53900 44400 49310 29350 89580 24920 18900 22940 41280 43220 35360 98240 37570 101700 42270 64420 42850 24220 29050 47770 38460 31840 125000 47810 20450 60110 70270 19620 31180 74470 95830 40010 103000 42470 18730 75180 4602 47560 24730 29140 39730 69070 77540 64340 25050 48050 52490 94900 43860 26570 48720 63600 68450 19620 60750 13700 72660 26150 22890 23300 85620 35440 26300 37540 31820 10480 12440 89870 104400 27640 26700 33570 90250 26760 35430 172000 4996 85260 49020 66870 39030 32470 21450 45710 32840 86960 20700 24890 40160 25120 114100 35640 27260 40320 36230 41700 33300 50340 73890 55940 94810 32930 47340 61660 40840 27440 27160 27810 95130 66430 80370 35810 30440 90730 28140 67140 44520 66410 65850 75190 24870 26670 33600 57320 39770 36530 25930 39780 29830 58580 39100 38000 25630 15650 99300 78450 33780 26560 35190 37800 108300 86860 84320 107900 70330 43090 32570 37430 41550 24210 36090 43420 12390 31660 35500 25760 59130 30110 44140 62590 108600 130800 35030 46320 102400 33090 52750 82840 30160 31380 36360 33800 52870 33010 27850 58290
2022-03-19 62470 68140 17540 28280 36610 31790 51260 50200 20520 78030 43840 38860 38850 60760 22740 66070 116600 82890 22560 60930 51460 36120 53910 58570 121200 75880 324900 32820 53530 45350 20120 23960 89400 19250 119700 38290 162800 44710 34490 96100 24460 39420 87490 152900 35320 100000 30590 30220 34010 31100 61920 49290 62160 38330 65770 31460 42260 98650 32780 45970 28440 44080 88550 12090 56470 56360 32860 46890 116000 108600 30590 31490 28460 38010 157000 17600 58540 5313 25170 21100 25130 134800 20650 166500 103700 15040 37420 115600 46950 34520 37240 25620 23420 79010 17580 58840 99600 91040 31340 100800 37310 47960 111500 42570 23800 36730 38150 32360 45120 33220 31200 26290 34460 94860 37440 59410 30030 40190 12880 45010 91050 40800 25840 33940 37090 53310 31290 27920 39920 110000 37540 30520 21310 23610 63610 37230 210500 38940 23700 34300 28030 83730 42410 25670 84350 45340 23630 59030 28000 77860 30030 47410 75820 29260 31740 27060 34960 83970 46120 34430 26980 55700 94120 33850 39810 89040 50460 27560 25500 39810 14060 35170 68190 41330 32460 39450 82820 54920 128600 55630 104200 42090 254400 114500 27140 88760 31400 30520 51160 164000 71030 51950 18070 17600 182400 34400 86750 14920 29090 18580 66750 20440 24960 45260 54010 44550 49370 29500 89780 25010 18910 23140 41320 43400 35430 98370 37630 101800 42310 64580 43130 24340 29120 47810 38590 31960 125600 47930 20540 60400 70380 19660 31250 74630 96020 40120 103100 42550 18770 75250 4658 47670 24760 29160 39960 69210 77820 64510 25090 48140 52590 95040 43920 26630 48890 63900 68550 19650 60950 13720 72710 26220 22910 23400 85730 35510 26380 37640 31900 10510 12470 89980 104500 27690 26870 33690 90430 26820 35550 172200 5048 85570 49070 66970 39220 32690 21500 45910 32920 87250 20790 24950 40290 25210 114600 35790 27340 40470 36320 41890 33360 50390 74070 56080 94980 33010 47480 61770 40940 27490 27240 27960 95320 66530 80480 35920 30580 90850 28210 67310 44660 66460 66060 75280 24910 26760 33740 57450 39900 36650 26040 39910 29920 58690 39200 38130 25660 15710 99450 78600 33900 26650 35230 37950 108400 86970 84490 108200 70480 43210 32630 37580 41710 24250 36180 43620 12450 31810 35570 25840 59340 30220 44260 62680 108700 131300 35160 46450 102600 33190 52900 82940 30240 31490 36410 33890 52980 33080 27910 58450
2022-03-20 62800 68630 17610 28350 36730 31980 51450 50410 20640 78230 44010 38940 39000 60960 22840 66170 116900 83040 22640 61110 51630 36210 54110 58750 121500 76070 325300 32890 53580 45450 20160 24000 89520 19300 120000 38420 163000 44870 34650 96240 24540 39450 87750 153400 35480 100300 30670 30290 34100 31140 62030 49340 62250 38480 65950 31530 42420 98740 32890 46030 28550 44230 88850 12110 56580 56550 33020 47050 116200 108900 30680 31610 28560 38080 157600 17700 58750 5426 25190 21160 25170 135500 20760 166700 103800 15080 37550 115900 47080 34580 37330 25700 23450 79180 17640 59000 99800 91440 31470 100900 37520 48160 111800 42850 23920 36900 38340 32490 45290 33330 31400 26380 34600 95110 37520 59680 30150 40330 12930 45170 91210 40900 25940 34030 37230 53650 31440 27990 40060 110500 37600 30650 21400 23670 63700 37310 211100 39060 23800 34380 28120 83930 42570 25700 84540 45440 23690 59180 28080 78030 30110 47510 76000 29370 31780 27180 35090 84160 46300 34530 27060 56050 94330 33940 39960 89220 50670 27590 25650 39960 14070 35290 68380 41420 32570 39650 82950 55120 128800 55730 104400 42220 254900 114700 27260 88970 31460 30620 51360 164400 71130 52100 18160 17670 182600 34480 86990 14960 29210 18590 66930 20530 25060 45450 54110 44700 49440 29650 90010 25120 18930 23350 41360 43610 35520 98540 37700 101900 42360 64730 43400 24460 29190 47880 38750 32080 126300 48050 20620 60710 70510 19700 31330 74810 96250 40250 103200 42630 18800 75320 4713 47800 24790 29180 40190 69390 78120 64710 25120 48220 52700 95210 43990 26690 49070 64220 68650 19680 61150 13750 72770 26320 22930 23500 85860 35580 26460 37760 31980 10530 12510 90100 104600 27740 27010 33830 90660 26900 35680 172600 5104 85920 49140 67100 39450 32880 21560 46120 33010 87620 20890 25020 40430 25310 115200 35930 27450 40630 36420 42090 33430 50450 74250 56260 95160 33110 47650 61890 41060 27550 27330 28090 95530 66650 80610 36060 30730 90990 28290 67510 44830 66510 66270 75400 24960 26860 33900 57610 40070 36790 26160 40060 30020 58830 39330 38300 25690 15770 99600 78760 34040 26760 35270 38110 108600 87110 84680 108500 70640 43350 32690 37740 41880 24320 36290 43800 12510 32050 35670 25920 59600 30330 44390 62810 108900 131900 35310 46600 102900 33290 53070 83070 30320 31630 36460 34010 53110 33170 27980 58640
2022-03-21 63160 69220 17690 28430 36840 32240 51640 50650 20830 78430 44200 39030 39160 61170 22950 66280 117200 83190 22700 61280 51810 36300 54320 58950 121900 76260 325700 32960 53640 45550 20190 24050 89640 19370 120400 38570 163200 45050 34820 96410 24620 39490 88100 153900 35640 100600 30750 30380 34190 31180 62150 49390 62360 38660 66160 31600 42610 98870 33010 46110 28640 44370 89190 12140 56710 56730 33170 47230 116500 109200 30780 31760 28660 38170 158400 17840 58980 5543 25220 21230 25230 136100 20860 167100 104000 15130 37680 116200 47250 34640 37430 25790 23470 79370 17720 59160 100000 91900 31620 101100 37760 48340 112000 43230 24050 37100 38590 32640 45470 33440 31670 26460 34770 95420 37600 59990 30280 40480 12980 45350 91420 41010 26020 34120 37390 54050 31590 28080 40210 111200 37660 30800 21500 23740 63800 37400 211900 39180 23900 34470 28210 84180 42740 25760 84750 45540 23760 59370 28160 78230 30190 47620 76190 29500 31820 27310 35240 84380 46490 34640 27160 56610 94560 34030 40150 89440 50910 27620 25780 40130 14100 35470 68570 41560 32670 39850 83100 55350 129000 55840 104600 42370 255400 114800 27380 89230 31540 30720 51560 164700 71250 52260 18250 17750 182900 34560 87250 15010 29330 18600 67150 20630 25180 45670 54210 44860 49510 29830 90280 25240 18960 23550 41400 43820 35620 98770 37800 102000 42410 64880 43760 24580 29270 47950 38920 32220 127000 48200 20720 61020 70650 19750 31430 74980 96520 40410 103400 42720 18850 75420 4767 47930 24830 29210 40450 69590 78410 64940 25160 48320 52820 95380 44060 26750 49270 64600 68750 19720 61360 13770 72860 26400 22960 23630 86000 35670 26550 37880 32080 10570 12560 90230 104700 27820 27250 33960 90910 26980 35820 173000 5163 86270 49220 67250 39680 33070 21630 46360 33110 87960 20980 25100 40590 25430 115900 36100 27550 40820 36520 42280 33510 50520 74440 56450 95390 33210 47820 62030 41170 27630 27430 28250 95760 66770 80780 36200 30880 91150 28400 67740 45000 66580 66480 75530 25010 26950 34070 57790 40220 36960 26270 40220 30110 59000 39460 38470 25720 15830 99780 78940 34190 26880 35330 38290 108800 87240 84900 108800 70800 43510 32770 37920 42080 24400 36400 44010 12570 32260 35770 26020 59870 30450 44540 62970 109100 132400 35470 46770 103200 33410 53280 83210 30420 31800 36520 34140 53260 33270 28050 58840

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.