COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-03-19 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-03-19

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-03-19

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-24 --2021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 1126 1275 1525 804 437 780 1774 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 3477 4582 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 2285 1199 3307 17521 1550 3317 2250 319 962 4696 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 508 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 1302 2002 2935 611 2895 1143 2214 1302 1418 1131 1362 528 1222 456 3005 192 2422 2091 1033 1466 3801 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7754 684 1939 403 774 995 3960 513 7900 4326 551 1426 5019 1559 1550 1634 862 267 3466 481 896 4767 2335 1159 4687 2036 1878 4677 1747 663 1048 1254 885 1468 1093 1560 891 1505 3182 1563 1625 976 1274 417 1353 3625 1652 982 1189 1007 2291 930 917 560 6120 482 1022 779 884 2871 1519 7271 1464 848 1510 1137 3360 1261 323 3318 2105 817 2104 1115 3254 1188 1498 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 1707 1188 1044 2486 3914 1327 1158 3872 1474 1689 886 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 3609 2021 6117 3336 4514 1732 11029 6320 803 3519 1176 1238 694 9205 3848 1963 580 540 10177 1515 3625 516 696 246 2554 503 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1348 3381 825 189 1495 532 1263 1329 4887 1519 5335 518 1141 1531 659 963 1941 1111 1060 3789 1824 525 1868 2932 835 1179 2965 3811 1403 5264 1790 839 4269 264 1562 291 1808 2223 3085 2613 2589 315 2466 2199 4529 2322 1065 1632 1892 1026 776 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 4307 1311 892 1297 1206 259 344 4748 5886 951 1365 1073 4438 857 1175 8405 632 3240 2347 2862 1130 1408 768 1599 1218 2982 587 863 1470 763 4031 1059 875 1101 1609 1007 1377 2510 3022 2379 4073 1253 1583 3012 1783 1077 992 1278 3842 3631 3812 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 890 2290 3757 968 844 990 2555 1394 1055 812 1551 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 422 1143 5038 4407 3811 4283 2987 1563 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 844 1620 922 2543 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 4157 1188 796 397 1077 2155 1437 1060 2087
Days since peak 41 41 54 54 54 41 54 82 41 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 81 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 81 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 81 54 54 54 54 54 81 54 80 54 80 54 80 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 41 41 54 81 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 80 54 54 80 54 54 54 54 41 41 54 41 54 54 41 54 54 54 41 54 41 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 41 54 54 80 41 81 54 54 54 54 54 25 54 54 54 54 54 54 81 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 41 54 54 54 54 54 54 41 54 81 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 82 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 41 54 54 81 41 80 54 54 54 54 54 82 54 41 54 54 54 54 54 25 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 41 54 81 54 41 54 54 54 79 54 54 54 54 54 54 25 82 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 41 54 54 54 54 54 41 54 54 54 54 41 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 41 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 41 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 80 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 80 54 54 54 54 54 81 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 25 54 54 41 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 81 54 54 54 54 54
Last total 62388 67996 17660 28485 36889 31670 51132 50164 20653 77810 44206 39145 39146 61147 23054 66202 117039 83272 22725 61235 51948 36305 54513 58840 120843 76100 326542 32953 53697 45546 20190 24090 89596 19308 120625 38567 163268 44914 34763 96368 24593 39495 87884 153877 35515 100386 30825 30337 34206 31227 62182 49442 62394 38595 66070 31702 42515 98784 33116 46036 28602 44201 89047 12151 56804 56670 33016 47256 116860 109406 30863 31696 28615 38219 157326 17589 58903 5290 25204 21208 25224 137349 20897 167374 104064 15149 37611 116052 47151 34767 37347 25769 23458 79445 17729 58833 100146 92338 31592 101278 37671 47982 111763 42842 23948 37113 38284 32711 45517 33485 31372 26518 34469 95566 37658 60081 30143 40671 12970 45348 91212 40985 25963 34147 37403 53360 31635 28094 39891 110491 37545 30631 21508 23730 63978 37498 211349 39190 24037 34449 28189 84095 42654 25710 84706 45608 23830 59103 28193 78053 30133 47791 76116 29602 31814 27140 35246 84250 46550 34580 27135 56253 94399 33985 40277 89195 50697 27615 25696 40280 14040 35627 68554 41488 32609 39641 83218 55220 129273 55857 104695 42360 255892 114750 27252 89203 31619 30640 51040 164631 71288 52213 18175 17779 183034 34681 87134 14984 29556 18612 67065 20665 25277 45635 54024 44451 49489 29588 90239 25146 18976 23231 41356 43759 35714 98766 37938 102033 42405 64561 43318 24816 29364 48114 38913 32073 125594 48218 20704 61182 70766 19773 31342 74728 96563 40422 103430 42684 18795 75477 4487 47884 24851 29251 40128 69390 78680 64974 25150 48342 52745 95250 44088 26796 49007 64402 68582 19735 61253 13809 72960 26388 23001 23438 86265 35726 26493 37776 32039 10564 12569 90332 104741 27959 27043 34039 91020 26978 35703 173319 5014 86381 49184 67458 39758 32996 21607 46212 33072 88203 21113 25162 40589 25439 115206 36046 27494 40734 36442 42422 33540 50623 74680 56381 95460 33108 47718 62080 41277 27706 27391 28014 95762 66749 80927 36160 30995 91324 28355 67600 44872 66542 66509 75640 25035 26956 34095 57730 40179 37039 26314 40218 30014 58908 39418 38627 25718 16066 99809 78978 34009 26760 35270 38425 109022 87225 84654 108681 70941 43563 32760 37734 41904 24339 36351 44023 12706 31793 35760 26002 59854 30484 44693 63040 109144 133096 35443 46787 103305 33326 53290 83217 30420 31654 36430 34242 53367 33254 28117 58847
Last daily increment 271 374 94 96 128 142 149 179 123 126 173 125 141 239 121 97 309 197 59 181 231 79 271 183 281 194 537 70 58 111 0 57 127 56 446 176 264 130 158 186 63 0 302 495 125 326 100 68 104 31 127 0 127 156 191 123 191 0 144 0 87 138 295 0 159 220 159 231 396 352 119 130 103 99 760 89 200 92 0 63 53 1013 114 421 232 42 128 277 153 82 105 88 0 231 74 151 279 519 125 215 261 161 204 288 138 212 205 191 186 127 208 103 132 354 99 305 117 200 50 188 163 97 66 92 138 294 174 106 106 583 0 123 95 75 150 89 800 148 156 92 79 201 154 0 177 131 88 136 106 184 89 177 193 148 48 102 169 175 213 100 96 474 199 91 190 158 233 37 131 155 0 198 174 104 115 159 164 198 271 104 233 122 586 158 106 255 93 84 138 362 131 200 77 95 307 87 274 46 159 0 211 86 169 223 99 115 81 177 267 104 0 187 0 235 107 244 101 156 0 148 297 192 104 107 199 138 477 146 96 331 162 58 78 149 287 146 217 90 30 99 21 152 0 49 222 171 366 241 0 93 131 171 86 83 206 316 0 45 223 32 86 70 38 91 216 133 80 114 101 29 47 178 146 100 172 170 297 92 111 436 37 466 77 182 272 263 68 246 111 406 119 91 159 122 551 166 93 175 91 231 79 86 257 198 245 103 184 149 159 90 90 142 251 107 175 141 175 185 103 201 158 0 261 151 54 111 185 178 171 181 134 159 91 121 127 217 0 100 172 212 117 89 0 213 236 169 172 259 219 193 82 142 182 71 127 250 88 166 89 88 331 163 178 157 199 752 180 173 370 95 268 164 100 144 0 167 137 82 108 224
Last week 2278 3128 613 705 1016 1423 1125 1237 1134 989 1508 874 1303 1870 1003 711 2168 1219 607 1487 1687 685 1918 1491 2048 1380 3974 540 534 808 302 464 968 434 3611 1224 1991 1205 1272 1329 617 327 2403 4465 1191 2346 782 612 782 367 935 478 890 1315 1592 666 1421 1025 1120 500 737 1054 2532 204 1201 1520 1126 1537 3058 2755 871 1101 831 734 6323 827 1771 683 233 508 405 7058 934 2951 1631 409 971 2213 1124 598 714 683 249 1622 616 998 1925 4329 1115 1492 1868 1348 1735 2385 938 1633 1610 1318 1482 958 1668 786 1190 2348 801 2563 901 1421 423 1316 1314 831 655 806 1275 2559 1371 790 845 4510 401 1053 797 541 1089 780 7001 1044 989 653 689 1659 1294 342 1596 937 606 1128 701 1428 672 1251 1452 1149 328 904 1260 1472 1526 845 756 3825 1551 706 1468 1343 1683 268 1236 1562 140 1633 1512 933 800 1407 1322 1532 2107 936 2064 1153 4586 1215 892 1970 682 729 1070 2853 927 1282 704 732 2541 780 2031 356 1288 115 1619 834 1168 1704 640 872 541 1262 2120 846 262 1349 293 1772 916 1706 882 1185 441 983 2476 1298 731 781 1384 996 4541 1194 768 2826 1407 397 621 1197 2245 1244 1463 710 276 800 173 1126 354 280 1921 1302 2789 2009 295 830 1047 1270 579 566 1497 2878 642 321 1611 289 744 714 314 792 1406 766 681 880 793 273 374 1222 1021 687 1406 1276 2179 613 1001 3199 298 3140 620 1333 2019 1891 508 1742 779 3232 958 743 1248 974 4924 1357 761 1450 727 1861 639 661 1915 1486 1940 711 1375 1188 1028 669 746 1237 1902 960 1526 1117 1375 1505 773 1639 1256 493 1831 1085 418 826 1448 1297 1296 1439 1043 1369 736 1113 1026 1571 268 781 1664 1578 1021 837 445 1694 1610 1147 1453 2443 1572 1252 570 1263 1442 546 911 1717 640 1361 774 751 2516 1103 1502 1358 1383 5585 1285 1357 2574 835 1679 1119 760 1099 375 1169 1271 746 732 1579
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-052021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-152021-12-29 --2021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-12-272021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 72 159 115 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 32 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 67 56 82 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 72 101 274 115 49 31 184 116 384 105 164 123 94 256 1294 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 143 118 343 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 303 200 152 243 70 131 87 77 91 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 329 219 85 143 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 59 18 128 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 73 35 58 22 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 25 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 56 26 58 49 49 57 36 30 35 6 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 199 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 57 27 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 20 36 58 32 24 2 75 54 120 38 54 61 39 68 157 83 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 51 19 108 49 51 68 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 17 56 25 104 38 28 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 22 58 34 40 149 59 28 35 35 42 55 94 56 65 34 49 36 27 38 118 78 85 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 30 34 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 36 172 70 94 86 69 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 28 31 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-03-20 to 2022-03-26

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-03-19 62388 67996 17660 28485 36889 31670 51132 50164 20653 77810 44206 39145 39146 61147 23054 66202 117039 83272 22725 61235 51948 36305 54513 58840 120843 76100 326542 32953 53697 45546 20190 24090 89596 19308 120625 38567 163268 44914 34763 96368 24593 39495 87884 153877 35515 100386 30825 30337 34206 31227 62182 49442 62394 38595 66070 31702 42515 98784 33116 46036 28602 44201 89047 12151 56804 56670 33016 47256 116860 109406 30863 31696 28615 38219 157326 17589 58903 5290 25204 21208 25224 137349 20897 167374 104064 15149 37611 116052 47151 34767 37347 25769 23458 79445 17729 58833 100146 92338 31592 101278 37671 47982 111763 42842 23948 37113 38284 32711 45517 33485 31372 26518 34469 95566 37658 60081 30143 40671 12970 45348 91212 40985 25963 34147 37403 53360 31635 28094 39891 110491 37545 30631 21508 23730 63978 37498 211349 39190 24037 34449 28189 84095 42654 25710 84706 45608 23830 59103 28193 78053 30133 47791 76116 29602 31814 27140 35246 84250 46550 34580 27135 56253 94399 33985 40277 89195 50697 27615 25696 40280 14040 35627 68554 41488 32609 39641 83218 55220 129273 55857 104695 42360 255892 114750 27252 89203 31619 30640 51040 164631 71288 52213 18175 17779 183034 34681 87134 14984 29556 18612 67065 20665 25277 45635 54024 44451 49489 29588 90239 25146 18976 23231 41356 43759 35714 98766 37938 102033 42405 64561 43318 24816 29364 48114 38913 32073 125594 48218 20704 61182 70766 19773 31342 74728 96563 40422 103430 42684 18795 75477 4487 47884 24851 29251 40128 69390 78680 64974 25150 48342 52745 95250 44088 26796 49007 64402 68582 19735 61253 13809 72960 26388 23001 23438 86265 35726 26493 37776 32039 10564 12569 90332 104741 27959 27043 34039 91020 26978 35703 173319 5014 86381 49184 67458 39758 32996 21607 46212 33072 88203 21113 25162 40589 25439 115206 36046 27494 40734 36442 42422 33540 50623 74680 56381 95460 33108 47718 62080 41277 27706 27391 28014 95762 66749 80927 36160 30995 91324 28355 67600 44872 66542 66509 75640 25035 26956 34095 57730 40179 37039 26314 40218 30014 58908 39418 38627 25718 16066 99809 78978 34009 26760 35270 38425 109022 87225 84654 108681 70941 43563 32760 37734 41904 24339 36351 44023 12706 31793 35760 26002 59854 30484 44693 63040 109144 133096 35443 46787 103305 33326 53290 83217 30420 31654 36430 34242 53367 33254 28117 58847
2022-03-20 62730 68500 17750 28590 36980 31970 51320 50370 20800 77980 44430 39260 39330 61390 23140 66280 117300 83400 22810 61430 52180 36410 54760 59050 121200 76190 327200 33040 53790 45620 20230 24160 89750 19390 121100 38700 163500 45150 34950 96500 24690 39530 88230 154500 35680 100700 30890 30420 34310 31290 62260 49500 62510 38760 66310 31800 42730 98850 33250 46040 28710 44350 89410 12180 56940 56880 33180 47510 117400 109800 31000 31860 28740 38350 158100 17740 59160 5335 25220 21280 25280 138400 21040 167800 104300 15210 37750 116300 47310 34860 37450 25870 23460 79720 17800 58990 100400 92990 31740 101500 37810 48160 112000 43200 24100 37340 38470 32880 45730 33620 31580 26610 34690 95950 37760 60550 30280 40910 13030 45470 91370 41090 26040 34270 37590 53830 31830 28210 40030 110900 37560 30790 21630 23810 64150 37590 211700 39340 24170 34540 28290 84250 42830 25710 84940 45700 23920 59310 28300 78240 30260 47990 76290 29740 31860 27280 35430 84430 46740 34700 27260 56790 94590 34100 40490 89350 50950 27670 25700 40470 14050 35840 68820 41590 32730 39850 83400 55410 129600 56000 105000 42490 256700 114900 27400 89380 31720 30750 51220 165000 71430 52410 18300 17890 183500 34740 87440 15040 29750 18620 67240 20780 25460 45900 54120 44600 49580 29780 90480 25270 18980 23430 41370 44030 35800 99000 38060 102200 42450 64720 43690 25020 29450 48240 39130 32230 126000 48370 20820 61520 71000 19840 31430 74910 96940 40590 103600 42790 18840 75610 4549 48030 24880 29300 40390 69550 79110 65180 25180 48430 52890 95410 44170 26880 49210 64400 68660 19780 61490 13850 73080 26510 23050 23570 86440 35800 26600 37910 32160 10610 12630 90510 104900 28070 27250 34210 91310 27070 35860 173800 5106 86870 49270 67560 40030 33000 21680 46480 33190 88690 21260 25310 40770 25600 116000 36250 27610 40940 36540 42680 33610 50720 74930 56560 95630 33200 47930 62240 41420 27820 27500 28230 96070 66890 81160 36340 31200 91560 28470 67820 45040 66570 66800 75830 25110 27030 34290 57970 40380 37190 26450 40410 30130 59030 39570 38750 25760 16190 100000 79170 34230 26890 35310 38640 109300 87380 84860 109000 71120 43760 32850 37930 42120 24420 36510 44280 12810 32040 35850 26110 60160 30640 44880 63160 109400 133800 35630 46960 103800 33450 53550 83420 30540 31830 36480 34400 53510 33360 28230 58970
2022-03-21 63160 69160 17840 28710 37120 32270 51570 50620 20990 78260 44650 39370 39520 61610 23270 66400 117600 83580 22880 61620 52400 36500 54950 59290 121700 76370 327900 33110 53880 45730 20270 24240 89890 19460 121500 38890 163800 45380 35110 96690 24780 39560 88650 155200 35870 101100 30990 30520 34390 31350 62400 49560 62600 38960 66590 31920 42940 99000 33350 46040 28810 44490 89760 12200 57140 57120 33360 47780 118000 110100 31150 32030 28870 38480 158400 17910 59420 5335 25230 21350 25340 139600 21200 168300 104600 15290 37890 116700 47500 34960 37560 25960 23460 79990 17910 59170 100800 93730 31920 101800 38100 48400 112300 43630 24250 37560 38700 33030 45970 33740 31830 26690 34920 96340 37850 60970 30410 41180 13100 45660 91590 41210 26100 34420 37780 54340 32030 28310 40180 111700 37560 30980 21760 23880 64350 37670 212600 39490 24260 34610 28380 84520 43060 25770 85210 45820 24020 59540 28420 78470 30390 48240 76530 29860 31910 27430 35600 84680 46900 34800 27410 57090 94820 34210 40700 89580 51240 27720 25790 40670 14050 36090 69100 41750 32860 40090 83640 55660 130000 56130 105400 42690 257400 115100 27570 89680 31840 30880 51490 165500 71560 52600 18430 18000 183900 34830 87770 15100 29960 18640 67510 20890 25670 46180 54240 44800 49670 30010 90680 25400 18980 23600 41370 44360 35910 99200 38210 102400 42500 64890 44110 25230 29530 48370 39370 32390 126200 48490 20930 61830 71250 19920 31510 75140 97350 40800 103800 42880 18880 75750 4719 48230 24930 29350 40520 69750 79610 65520 25210 48550 53070 95640 44260 26950 49490 64610 68720 19810 61700 13890 73230 26620 23110 23730 86550 35910 26720 38050 32290 10660 12680 90720 105000 28170 27490 34380 91660 27150 36030 174300 5195 87400 49390 67730 40230 33090 21750 46730 33300 89230 21420 25450 40930 25790 117000 36440 27720 41150 36670 42930 33700 50830 75140 56800 95930 33320 48140 62430 41540 27940 27610 28470 96380 67040 81430 36540 31420 91840 28580 68100 45180 66630 67110 76010 25200 27170 34500 58220 40570 37400 26580 40570 30270 59170 39710 38950 25810 16310 100300 79420 34450 27040 35380 38820 109600 87570 85110 109400 71340 43960 32930 38170 42340 24490 36690 44500 12910 32310 35980 26210 60570 30790 45120 63360 109600 134400 35800 47110 104200 33570 53850 83610 30670 32030 36510 34600 53610 33470 28360 59200
2022-03-22 63590 69750 17940 28820 37250 32570 51780 50840 21190 78490 44870 39480 39710 61840 23390 66510 118000 83760 22950 61820 52630 36600 55170 59510 122200 76540 328600 33190 53980 45850 20310 24310 90030 19530 122000 39070 164000 45590 35290 96880 24870 39590 89080 156000 36050 101400 31100 30630 34480 31410 62540 49610 62700 39160 66840 32030 43140 99140 33470 46080 28920 44640 90120 12230 57330 57360 33530 48040 118600 110500 31290 32200 29000 38600 158900 18070 59690 5335 25240 21430 25400 140700 21350 168900 104900 15350 38030 117100 47670 35070 37680 26050 23470 80230 18010 59340 101100 94430 32090 102100 38400 48670 112500 44090 24390 37780 38990 33180 46200 33860 32110 26770 35170 96710 37950 61360 30540 41410 13160 45850 91800 41340 26170 34550 37960 54920 32230 28420 40320 112400 37560 31140 21890 23960 64540 37750 213700 39640 24360 34690 28470 84760 43250 25830 85470 45960 24110 59740 28530 78710 30500 48450 76760 29980 31960 27580 35770 84910 47070 34920 27520 57510 95060 34320 40910 89790 51500 27760 25940 40870 14050 36320 69400 41900 32980 40310 83860 55900 130300 56270 105700 42860 258200 115300 27730 89960 31960 31000 51720 166000 71690 52780 18540 18100 184300 34930 88080 15150 30160 18650 67780 21000 25860 46450 54350 44970 49760 30240 90900 25520 18990 23770 41370 44620 36030 99500 38350 102500 42550 65060 44620 25430 29610 48510 39610 32550 126600 48630 21040 62150 71490 19990 31600 75340 97710 41000 104000 42980 18920 75890 4838 48400 24970 29400 40710 69970 80070 65810 25240 48670 53230 95850 44350 27030 49730 64910 68780 19850 61920 13930 73360 26730 23160 23870 86700 36050 26830 38190 32420 10700 12730 90940 105200 28270 27740 34540 92010 27230 36190 174800 5274 87890 49510 67900 40460 33300 21820 46990 33410 89740 21560 25570 41100 25960 117900 36640 27830 41360 36770 43180 33790 50960 75380 57020 96240 33420 48350 62600 41680 28030 27720 28720 96690 67170 81680 36720 31640 92110 28690 68360 45340 66710 67410 76190 25270 27290 34700 58440 40770 37620 26710 40740 30390 59330 39860 39160 25850 16430 100700 79670 34650 27190 35430 39020 109800 87770 85340 109800 71560 44150 33020 38380 42560 24560 36850 44730 13010 32570 36100 26320 61050 30940 45350 63570 109800 135000 35980 47260 104600 33690 54120 83790 30790 32220 36550 34790 53730 33590 28480 59430
2022-03-23 64010 70300 18030 28930 37360 32800 51980 51050 21350 78700 45090 39600 39890 62070 23510 66640 118300 83910 23030 62010 52850 36700 55400 59730 122600 76720 329100 33270 54060 45960 20350 24390 90180 19610 122400 39250 164300 45790 35460 97050 24970 39630 89470 156600 36220 101800 31200 30720 34580 31450 62680 49670 62820 39350 67050 32110 43350 99210 33590 46090 29020 44790 90480 12250 57480 57580 33690 48290 119000 110800 31420 32360 29130 38700 159500 18200 59940 5355 25250 21500 25460 141800 21500 169300 105100 15400 38170 117400 47850 35160 37790 26140 23470 80480 18090 59500 101400 95090 32270 102300 38630 48950 112800 44430 24540 38000 39240 33340 46410 33990 32300 26860 35400 97040 38050 61750 30680 41630 13220 46030 91960 41460 26240 34680 38140 55280 32420 28520 40460 113100 37560 31300 22010 24030 64720 37840 215100 39790 24480 34770 28560 85000 43440 25870 85710 46070 24200 59940 28640 78920 30590 48630 76970 30110 32000 27720 35940 85140 47260 35030 27620 57970 95280 34430 41110 89970 51760 27810 26090 41060 14050 36510 69660 42030 33100 40530 84040 56120 130600 56410 106100 43010 258900 115500 27890 90230 32060 31110 51920 166400 71830 52970 18660 18210 184700 35040 88390 15210 30360 18660 68030 21120 26040 46710 54450 45130 49850 30420 91130 25650 19000 23960 41370 44890 36140 99700 38470 102700 42600 65210 44920 25620 29700 48630 39810 32700 127000 48780 21150 62490 71720 20040 31680 75540 98050 41200 104200 43080 18960 76000 4929 48570 25010 29440 40930 70150 80510 66090 25280 48790 53370 96040 44450 27110 49940 65210 68850 19880 62150 13970 73470 26830 23210 24000 86860 36160 26950 38330 32540 10740 12780 91150 105300 28370 27920 34710 92320 27310 36340 175100 5331 88370 49610 68060 40700 33450 21890 47240 33530 90230 21710 25690 41280 26120 118700 36840 27940 41560 36890 43430 33870 51040 75620 57260 96510 33530 48560 62780 41810 28130 27820 28900 96960 67300 81920 36880 31840 92350 28800 68600 45500 66730 67690 76360 25330 27390 34900 58650 40960 37840 26840 40920 30490 59470 40010 39350 25900 16550 100900 79920 34800 27310 35480 39230 110100 87930 85550 110200 71760 44340 33100 38590 42770 24640 36980 44960 13100 32790 36210 26420 61430 31100 45560 63760 110000 135600 36160 47430 105000 33800 54390 83990 30910 32400 36590 34960 53860 33710 28570 59620
2022-03-24 64400 70830 18120 29030 37490 33040 52170 51260 21520 78900 45310 39710 40080 62300 23640 66760 118600 84100 23110 62210 53080 36790 55630 59960 122900 76930 329800 33350 54150 46090 20380 24460 90330 19670 122900 39420 164600 46000 35640 97240 25060 39670 89830 157300 36400 102100 31290 30820 34680 31510 62810 49730 62930 39550 67280 32220 43560 99330 33720 46130 29130 44930 90840 12280 57660 57820 33860 48530 119500 111200 31550 32520 29250 38820 160200 18340 60200 5392 25260 21570 25520 142800 21640 169700 105400 15480 38310 117700 48030 35260 37910 26240 23500 80730 18180 59650 101700 95750 32410 102500 38910 49160 113000 44820 24680 38230 39470 33510 46600 34120 32590 26950 35590 97370 38150 62150 30810 41840 13290 46210 92160 41570 26320 34800 38330 55700 32620 28630 40600 113800 37560 31460 22130 24110 64860 37930 215900 39940 24590 34860 28660 85250 43640 25960 85960 46220 24290 60120 28740 79140 30700 48880 77190 30250 32050 27860 36120 85380 47440 35150 27720 58440 95490 34550 41320 90170 52010 27860 26180 41260 14050 36750 69910 42180 33230 40750 84260 56350 131000 56540 106400 43190 259700 115700 28040 90520 32160 31230 52120 166800 71980 53170 18760 18310 185100 35140 88710 15260 30550 18670 68260 21230 26220 46970 54540 45280 49940 30610 91360 25770 19020 24150 41370 45140 36260 99900 38610 102900 42650 65370 45300 25810 29790 48760 40050 32860 127400 48920 21260 62820 71930 20120 31770 75730 98420 41380 104400 43190 19010 76120 5013 48750 25060 29490 41160 70350 80950 66370 25310 48900 53530 96250 44540 27190 50160 65510 68920 19920 62380 14010 73590 26930 23260 24130 87030 36270 27060 38460 32660 10790 12840 91330 105500 28470 28150 34880 92640 27400 36500 175700 5386 88850 49720 68230 40940 33680 21960 47500 33640 90710 21850 25800 41450 26280 119500 37040 28050 41770 37000 43680 33970 51140 75860 57440 96790 33640 48770 62980 41950 28230 27930 29090 97250 67420 82150 37050 32050 92540 28910 68870 45660 66780 67980 76540 25420 27480 35100 58870 41150 38030 26980 41090 30610 59650 40160 39560 25940 16660 101200 80160 34940 27440 35520 39440 110300 88100 85770 110500 71980 44530 33190 38790 42980 24720 37140 45200 13200 32990 36330 26530 61790 31250 45760 63980 110300 136300 36340 47600 105400 33920 54650 84190 31030 32580 36630 35140 54000 33830 28690 59850
2022-03-25 64640 71350 18210 29140 37640 33210 52360 51460 21660 79100 45530 39830 40260 62540 23750 66870 118900 84260 23190 62410 53310 36900 55860 60150 123300 77110 330400 33430 54220 46200 20420 24530 90480 19720 123400 39590 164900 46180 35820 97420 25130 39700 90180 157900 36580 102500 31390 30910 34780 31560 62950 49780 63050 39730 67490 32310 43770 99380 33860 46130 29210 45080 91210 12300 57820 58040 34020 48780 119900 111500 31690 32680 29380 38920 160900 18430 60460 5438 25280 21640 25580 143900 21790 170100 105700 15530 38450 118000 48170 35340 38000 26340 23500 80950 18280 59810 102000 96390 32550 102800 39130 49310 113300 45070 24820 38450 39660 33670 46790 34250 32800 27040 35720 97720 38260 62480 30940 42030 13350 46410 92340 41680 26390 34930 38510 56000 32810 28740 40740 114400 37560 31600 22250 24190 65030 38030 216600 40100 24710 34940 28760 85460 43820 25980 86200 46330 24380 60290 28850 79320 30790 49060 77400 30390 32100 28000 36300 85600 47630 35260 27830 58950 95730 34660 41540 90350 52240 27890 26290 41460 14050 36960 70120 42300 33350 40960 84460 56560 131300 56680 106700 43350 260300 115900 28180 90800 32250 31340 52300 167200 72120 53360 18860 18420 185400 35220 88970 15320 30740 18680 68470 21340 26400 47240 54640 45430 50030 30770 91610 25890 19020 24340 41370 45390 36370 100200 38740 103000 42700 65520 45610 26000 29880 48860 40250 33010 127800 49070 21380 63160 72120 20180 31860 75920 98720 41540 104600 43290 19050 76250 5083 48920 25080 29520 41400 70530 81380 66650 25340 49000 53650 96430 44630 27270 50360 65730 69000 19960 62610 14050 73690 27020 23300 24260 87210 36380 27170 38600 32780 10830 12890 91510 105600 28570 28330 35050 92930 27490 36650 176100 5430 89320 49810 68390 41200 33830 22030 47760 33750 91190 22000 25900 41630 26430 120000 37240 28160 41980 37090 43940 34050 51250 76110 57640 97080 33750 48980 63140 42100 28330 28040 29240 97500 67560 82390 37210 32250 92760 29020 69080 45830 66790 68270 76700 25480 27570 35300 59060 41350 38230 27110 41280 30720 59770 40320 39730 25980 16770 101400 80400 35080 27550 35540 39650 110600 88250 85970 110800 72170 44720 33280 38990 43200 24800 37270 45450 13290 33150 36440 26630 62100 31400 45940 64170 110500 137000 36520 47770 105800 34040 54920 84350 31150 32750 36670 35320 54130 33930 28790 60070
2022-03-26 64890 71860 18300 29250 37770 33370 52540 51650 21770 79300 45740 39950 40450 62780 23870 66970 119200 84450 23270 62610 53550 37000 56110 60320 123600 77300 330900 33510 54280 46300 20460 24600 90640 19770 123800 39750 165200 46300 36000 97580 25200 39740 90450 158300 36750 102800 31490 30970 34890 31600 63070 49840 63160 39880 67680 32420 43980 99400 33990 46130 29300 45230 91570 12330 57960 58240 34180 49020 120200 111900 31820 32840 29500 39010 161700 18520 60720 5488 25290 21720 25640 144900 21930 170500 105900 15580 38590 118300 48330 35420 38100 26440 23500 81170 18340 59960 102300 97030 32670 103000 39340 49440 113400 45310 24970 38680 39830 33840 46960 34380 32990 27130 35840 98040 38360 62780 31070 42220 13410 46570 92490 41780 26470 35050 38700 56280 33000 28850 40870 114900 37560 31720 22370 24260 65160 38130 217200 40250 24840 35030 28860 85640 43960 25980 86440 46470 24480 60420 28960 79490 30870 49210 77560 30530 32160 28130 36470 85780 47820 35380 27920 59460 95900 34770 41750 90500 52440 27920 26420 41650 14050 37140 70260 42400 33470 41170 84620 56740 131600 56820 106900 43470 260900 116000 28330 91020 32340 31450 52490 167600 72270 53550 18940 18530 185700 35320 89200 15370 30940 18700 68650 21460 26570 47500 54740 45580 50120 30920 91850 26020 19020 24540 41370 45590 36490 100400 38840 103100 42760 65670 45860 26190 29980 48960 40420 33150 128300 49220 21490 63500 72280 20230 31950 76110 99000 41670 104800 43400 19090 76350 5148 49050 25090 29560 41660 70700 81810 66880 25380 49110 53770 96600 44720 27360 50560 66050 69070 20010 62850 14100 73780 27100 23330 24390 87400 36490 27280 38730 32900 10870 12950 91670 105800 28680 28490 35220 93170 27580 36800 176500 5452 89790 49890 68560 41460 34120 22100 48020 33860 91670 22140 26000 41800 26590 120600 37440 28270 42190 37180 44190 34130 51340 76360 57820 97290 33850 49190 63290 42240 28420 28150 29370 97750 67690 82620 37340 32450 92950 29130 69270 46000 66800 68550 76850 25520 27690 35500 59220 41540 38400 27250 41460 30810 59920 40470 39940 26030 16890 101600 80600 35190 27640 35560 39860 110800 88420 86130 111100 72390 44900 33360 39190 43410 24880 37380 45690 13390 33290 36530 26740 62360 31550 46090 64310 110700 137700 36700 47940 106100 34160 55180 84510 31270 32920 36710 35440 54270 34010 28890 60270

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-03-20 to 2022-03-26

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-03-19 62388 67996 17660 28485 36889 31670 51132 50164 20653 77810 44206 39145 39146 61147 23054 66202 117039 83272 22725 61235 51948 36305 54513 58840 120843 76100 326542 32953 53697 45546 20190 24090 89596 19308 120625 38567 163268 44914 34763 96368 24593 39495 87884 153877 35515 100386 30825 30337 34206 31227 62182 49442 62394 38595 66070 31702 42515 98784 33116 46036 28602 44201 89047 12151 56804 56670 33016 47256 116860 109406 30863 31696 28615 38219 157326 17589 58903 5290 25204 21208 25224 137349 20897 167374 104064 15149 37611 116052 47151 34767 37347 25769 23458 79445 17729 58833 100146 92338 31592 101278 37671 47982 111763 42842 23948 37113 38284 32711 45517 33485 31372 26518 34469 95566 37658 60081 30143 40671 12970 45348 91212 40985 25963 34147 37403 53360 31635 28094 39891 110491 37545 30631 21508 23730 63978 37498 211349 39190 24037 34449 28189 84095 42654 25710 84706 45608 23830 59103 28193 78053 30133 47791 76116 29602 31814 27140 35246 84250 46550 34580 27135 56253 94399 33985 40277 89195 50697 27615 25696 40280 14040 35627 68554 41488 32609 39641 83218 55220 129273 55857 104695 42360 255892 114750 27252 89203 31619 30640 51040 164631 71288 52213 18175 17779 183034 34681 87134 14984 29556 18612 67065 20665 25277 45635 54024 44451 49489 29588 90239 25146 18976 23231 41356 43759 35714 98766 37938 102033 42405 64561 43318 24816 29364 48114 38913 32073 125594 48218 20704 61182 70766 19773 31342 74728 96563 40422 103430 42684 18795 75477 4487 47884 24851 29251 40128 69390 78680 64974 25150 48342 52745 95250 44088 26796 49007 64402 68582 19735 61253 13809 72960 26388 23001 23438 86265 35726 26493 37776 32039 10564 12569 90332 104741 27959 27043 34039 91020 26978 35703 173319 5014 86381 49184 67458 39758 32996 21607 46212 33072 88203 21113 25162 40589 25439 115206 36046 27494 40734 36442 42422 33540 50623 74680 56381 95460 33108 47718 62080 41277 27706 27391 28014 95762 66749 80927 36160 30995 91324 28355 67600 44872 66542 66509 75640 25035 26956 34095 57730 40179 37039 26314 40218 30014 58908 39418 38627 25718 16066 99809 78978 34009 26760 35270 38425 109022 87225 84654 108681 70941 43563 32760 37734 41904 24339 36351 44023 12706 31793 35760 26002 59854 30484 44693 63040 109144 133096 35443 46787 103305 33326 53290 83217 30420 31654 36430 34242 53367 33254 28117 58847
2022-03-20 62700 68510 17750 28590 37040 31860 51310 50380 20790 77980 44380 39280 39340 61440 23200 66310 117400 83470 22800 61480 52200 36410 54800 59070 121200 76330 327100 33030 53780 45670 20220 24160 89750 19380 121200 38740 163600 45120 34960 96560 24700 39520 88220 154500 35690 100800 30940 30430 34320 31270 62320 49480 62530 38810 66310 31800 42730 98880 33270 46080 28720 44350 89430 12160 56990 56920 33190 47500 117300 109800 31000 31850 28750 38330 158100 17680 59170 5392 25210 21280 25280 138400 21030 167800 104300 15210 37760 116400 47330 34860 37460 25880 23480 79690 17810 58990 100500 92920 31760 101500 37900 48140 112000 43140 24100 37340 38470 32920 45770 33630 31610 26640 34710 95940 37780 60480 30280 40890 13030 45560 91400 41120 26070 34270 37600 53700 31850 28220 40020 111000 37570 30790 21610 23810 64150 37610 212200 39350 24180 34550 28290 84330 42860 25720 84920 45760 23920 59260 28300 78270 30240 47980 76330 29770 31860 27270 35440 84480 46780 34720 27260 56720 94640 34090 40490 89390 50970 27660 25830 40490 14040 35830 68780 41610 32730 39850 83410 55460 129600 56000 105000 42520 256600 114900 27390 89500 31720 30750 51230 165100 71450 52430 18310 17880 183400 34800 87450 15040 29740 18620 67290 20780 25450 45910 54130 44590 49570 29760 90570 25280 18990 23440 41380 44040 35840 99000 38070 102200 42440 64720 43670 25010 29480 48230 39130 32230 126200 48400 20820 61560 70980 19840 31440 74930 96910 40600 103600 42790 18840 75610 4526 48050 24870 29300 40340 69620 79110 65240 25180 48460 52900 95450 44170 26890 49220 64710 68640 19780 61490 13850 73070 26510 23050 23570 86490 35850 26600 37920 32150 10610 12630 90510 104900 28060 27220 34230 91350 27070 35860 173900 5066 86870 49280 67660 40050 33190 21680 46500 33190 88700 21260 25280 40780 25580 115900 36260 27610 40950 36560 42690 33630 50730 74970 56620 95710 33220 47950 62250 41430 27810 27510 28180 96080 66870 81140 36330 31190 91540 28460 67840 45070 66590 66790 75810 25100 27080 34330 57920 40380 37250 26470 40410 30130 59080 39590 38860 25740 16170 100000 79210 34190 26900 35310 38680 109300 87410 84890 109000 71190 43750 32850 37930 42120 24430 36500 44280 12800 32000 35870 26110 60200 30660 44920 63240 109400 133900 35640 47000 103700 33450 53550 83390 30530 31830 36460 34420 53550 33370 28230 59080
2022-03-21 63090 69120 17860 28700 37210 32120 51520 50620 20990 78190 44590 39420 39550 61760 23360 66440 117800 83650 22890 61730 52480 36510 55060 59330 121600 76570 327700 33120 53870 45790 20260 24240 89910 19460 121700 38940 163900 45330 35170 96790 24800 39580 88640 155300 35880 101200 31050 30530 34440 31330 62470 49540 62680 39040 66600 31900 42980 99090 33410 46160 28840 44490 89850 12170 57180 57160 33370 47750 117900 110300 31130 32050 28890 38460 158900 17830 59470 5501 25250 21360 25350 139500 21170 168300 104600 15270 37910 116800 47530 34950 37580 25990 23520 79960 17920 59150 100800 93660 31940 101800 38190 48360 112300 43540 24260 37610 38710 33130 46020 33770 31830 26760 34930 96330 37910 60920 30440 41130 13100 45780 91660 41260 26180 34390 37820 54150 32080 28360 40180 111700 37630 30990 21740 23890 64310 37710 213100 39530 24310 34650 28390 84620 43100 25760 85180 45900 24010 59490 28410 78510 30350 48190 76570 29930 31910 27440 35640 84740 47020 34850 27390 57290 94890 34200 40720 89630 51270 27710 25970 40730 14060 36090 69010 41780 32860 40090 83630 55740 129900 56160 105300 42720 257300 115100 27560 89840 31830 30880 51440 165600 71600 52650 18440 18000 183800 34920 87800 15100 29930 18640 67580 20920 25650 46190 54230 44760 49660 29960 90950 25430 19030 23650 41410 44340 35990 99300 38210 102400 42520 64880 44110 25190 29590 48350 39370 32420 126900 48600 20940 61990 71200 19900 31540 75160 97290 40810 103900 42910 18890 75740 4586 48230 24940 29340 40550 69860 79550 65580 25230 48590 53090 95690 44260 26970 49460 65180 68740 19840 61730 13890 73200 26630 23100 23730 86680 35960 26720 38080 32290 10660 12690 90690 105100 28160 27450 34420 91700 27170 36030 174400 5127 87370 49390 67850 40360 33430 21770 46790 33320 89230 21410 25410 40980 25760 116700 36490 27740 41200 36680 42970 33730 50830 75240 56880 96020 33350 48190 62450 41580 27910 27630 28400 96400 67020 81400 36510 31410 91770 28600 68140 45280 66680 67070 75980 25170 27230 34590 58140 40600 37480 26620 40630 30260 59280 39770 39100 25780 16270 100300 79460 34400 27050 35390 38960 109500 87600 85170 109400 71440 43940 32950 38160 42380 24520 36670 44550 12890 32220 36000 26230 60570 30830 45170 63450 109600 134800 35860 47220 104100 33590 53850 83580 30660 32040 36530 34600 53740 33490 28350 59330
2022-03-22 63490 69740 17950 28800 37350 32380 51720 50830 21200 78390 44800 39540 39760 62050 23510 66550 118200 83830 22970 61970 52740 36620 55330 59570 122000 76800 328400 33200 53950 45920 20300 24310 90050 19540 122300 39130 164200 45540 35370 97010 24900 39630 89060 156000 36070 101600 31170 30640 34560 31380 62610 49610 62820 39250 66860 32000 43200 99270 33560 46260 28960 44640 90240 12190 57370 57400 33550 47980 118400 110700 31260 32220 29030 38570 159800 17980 59760 5608 25290 21430 25410 140600 21320 168800 104900 15330 38070 117100 47720 35040 37700 26090 23550 80200 18010 59320 101100 94200 32120 102000 38500 48630 112600 43990 24420 37880 38980 33330 46270 33920 32090 26880 35190 96700 38030 61340 30590 41340 13160 45990 91900 41400 26280 34530 38020 54690 32290 28490 40340 112400 37700 31160 21870 23970 64490 37840 214500 39700 24450 34740 28500 84890 43310 25820 85440 46060 24110 59690 28520 78760 30450 48370 76800 30100 31960 27580 35830 84980 47250 34990 27510 57920 95150 34310 40950 89860 51550 27750 26170 40970 14080 36310 69240 41940 32990 40320 83840 56010 130300 56300 105600 42900 258100 115300 27720 90150 31950 31010 51650 166100 71750 52850 18550 18120 184200 35030 88130 15160 30120 18650 67860 21040 25820 46470 54330 44920 49740 30170 91240 25560 19090 23870 41450 44610 36130 99600 38350 102600 42590 65040 44630 25370 29700 48470 39610 32590 127700 48790 21070 62270 71420 19950 31650 75390 97650 41010 104100 43020 18930 75870 4638 48400 24990 29390 40800 70110 79980 65870 25270 48710 53280 95910 44350 27060 49700 65680 68840 19880 61980 13930 73320 26750 23150 23880 86880 36080 26840 38220 32410 10700 12750 90900 105300 28250 27710 34610 92050 27270 36200 174900 5187 87850 49500 68060 40660 33750 21840 47080 33440 89740 21550 25520 41180 25930 117500 36710 27860 41430 36790 43240 33830 50950 75540 57120 96320 33460 48400 62630 41730 28000 27760 28640 96720 67170 81610 36690 31610 92010 28720 68420 45490 66780 67350 76150 25240 27370 34820 58340 40790 37720 26770 40840 30390 59470 39930 39340 25820 16370 100600 79710 34600 27210 35460 39220 109800 87800 85430 109800 71680 44130 33040 38380 42600 24610 36820 44810 12980 32520 36130 26350 61000 31000 45410 63670 109800 135600 36070 47440 104500 33740 54130 83760 30780 32230 36580 34780 53940 33610 28460 59580
2022-03-23 63870 70290 18040 28910 37490 32640 51910 51040 21360 78590 45010 39660 39960 62330 23660 66680 118500 84000 23040 62200 52990 36730 55600 59800 122400 77010 328900 33280 54030 46030 20340 24380 90200 19610 122800 39310 164500 45730 35570 97230 25000 39660 89450 156700 36250 102000 31280 30730 34670 31420 62740 49670 62940 39470 67100 32090 43420 99410 33710 46310 29080 44800 90650 12200 57530 57630 33730 48190 118800 111100 31390 32380 29150 38670 160900 18120 60030 5717 25300 21510 25480 141600 21460 169300 105100 15390 38220 117500 47900 35140 37820 26200 23580 80450 18100 59480 101300 94770 32300 102200 38740 48810 112900 44370 24570 38130 39220 33520 46490 34060 32330 27000 35410 97030 38140 61730 30730 41550 13220 46190 92100 41530 26380 34650 38200 55070 32500 28600 40490 113100 37740 31320 21980 24050 64650 37950 215800 39850 24580 34840 28600 85150 43510 25860 85710 46190 24200 59890 28620 78990 30550 48550 77020 30270 32010 27730 36010 85210 47470 35110 27610 58450 95390 34420 41160 90080 51820 27800 26370 41200 14090 36490 69480 42080 33120 40530 84030 56240 130600 56440 105900 43060 258800 115500 27860 90450 32050 31130 51840 166500 71890 53060 18670 18220 184500 35160 88440 15210 30310 18670 68130 21160 26000 46740 54440 45070 49830 30390 91560 25700 19120 24090 41490 44880 36260 99800 38470 102800 42640 65190 44980 25550 29800 48590 39820 32740 128400 48970 21190 62630 71630 20010 31750 75610 97990 41210 104400 43130 18980 75980 4685 48580 25040 29420 41070 70320 80410 66160 25300 48830 53440 96110 44440 27140 49910 66040 68930 19930 62220 13980 73430 26860 23190 24010 87070 36200 26940 38360 32530 10750 12800 91090 105400 28350 27920 34800 92370 27360 36370 175400 5242 88310 49610 68250 40960 33970 21930 47340 33550 90220 21700 25640 41360 26060 118300 36920 27980 41650 36910 43520 33930 51040 75810 57360 96610 33580 48620 62810 41880 28100 27870 28850 97010 67310 81810 36860 31820 92230 28840 68680 45680 66830 67630 76310 25290 27490 35030 58530 40980 37940 26930 41030 30500 59650 40100 39560 25850 16470 100800 79940 34760 27330 35520 39480 110000 87970 85670 110200 71910 44300 33130 38590 42820 24700 36950 45070 13070 32750 36250 26470 61380 31170 45640 63870 110000 136400 36270 47650 104900 33870 54380 83950 30900 32420 36600 34950 54130 33730 28560 59800
2022-03-24 64250 70880 18120 29010 37640 32900 52100 51230 21540 78780 45220 39770 40160 62600 23800 66800 118800 84190 23120 62410 53220 36840 55870 60030 122700 77240 329500 33360 54110 46150 20380 24440 90340 19680 123300 39490 164800 45930 35760 97440 25090 39700 89790 157300 36440 102300 31390 30830 34780 31470 62880 49730 63070 39660 67330 32180 43630 99560 33860 46400 29200 44950 91040 12230 57700 57860 33910 48400 119200 111500 31520 32540 29280 38780 161700 18250 60290 5829 25350 21590 25540 142600 21600 169600 105400 15460 38370 117800 48080 35220 37940 26300 23630 80680 18180 59640 101600 95350 32450 102400 39050 48980 113200 44750 24720 38360 39420 33710 46690 34200 32580 27110 35600 97350 38260 62110 30860 41750 13290 46370 92300 41650 26490 34760 38390 55500 32710 28710 40640 113800 37820 31490 22100 24130 64790 38050 216500 40000 24720 34940 28710 85390 43720 25910 85950 46330 24280 60070 28720 79220 30650 48750 77250 30420 32060 27890 36190 85450 47700 35230 27720 59060 95620 34540 41380 90290 52080 27840 26470 41410 14110 36710 69710 42220 33250 40750 84220 56470 130900 56580 106200 43230 259400 115700 28010 90740 32140 31250 52030 166900 72030 53250 18780 18330 184900 35260 88740 15270 30500 18680 68360 21290 26150 47010 54540 45220 49920 30580 91870 25830 19160 24310 41530 45150 36390 100100 38600 103000 42700 65350 45380 25730 29910 48700 40020 32900 129000 49140 21310 63010 71820 20070 31840 75820 98330 41400 104600 43230 19020 76100 4729 48750 25090 29460 41310 70510 80820 66440 25350 48940 53590 96310 44530 27230 50140 66400 69030 19970 62460 14020 73530 26970 23230 24150 87270 36300 27040 38500 32650 10790 12860 91250 105600 28440 28180 34980 92660 27450 36530 175800 5297 88770 49690 68440 41240 34240 22000 47610 33670 90710 21840 25740 41540 26210 119100 37120 28100 41860 37030 43800 34030 51120 76070 57540 96880 33690 48830 62980 42020 28200 27990 29030 97290 67450 82020 37030 32030 92430 28950 68920 45870 66900 67910 76460 25370 27610 35250 58730 41170 38130 27080 41210 30610 59840 40250 39790 25890 16570 101000 80160 34900 27460 35580 39720 110200 88140 85860 110500 72120 44480 33220 38790 43040 24780 37100 45320 13160 32960 36360 26580 61710 31320 45840 64090 110200 137200 36450 47840 105300 33990 54620 84120 31020 32590 36660 35110 54320 33840 28670 60020
2022-03-25 64590 71430 18210 29120 37790 33110 52290 51440 21710 78980 45430 39880 40340 62870 23920 66910 119100 84360 23200 62620 53460 36940 56140 60250 123100 77440 330000 33440 54180 46270 20420 24500 90490 19740 123800 39660 165100 46120 35940 97650 25180 39740 90130 158000 36630 102700 31500 30920 34880 31510 62990 49790 63190 39860 67570 32270 43850 99670 34020 46440 29310 45100 91400 12240 57850 58080 34090 48620 119700 111900 31650 32700 29410 38880 162300 18370 60560 5944 25370 21670 25610 143600 21740 170000 105600 15510 38520 118200 48240 35300 38040 26400 23640 80900 18270 59800 101900 95920 32610 102700 39320 49140 113500 45060 24860 38590 39710 33900 46900 34330 32820 27210 35760 97680 38390 62470 31000 41930 13350 46560 92490 41770 26580 34870 38580 55880 32900 28810 40790 114300 37860 31660 22210 24210 64930 38160 217100 40150 24850 35020 28810 85630 43910 25950 86180 46460 24360 60270 28820 79410 30750 48930 77460 30590 32110 28010 36370 85650 47930 35350 27830 59570 95870 34650 41590 90510 52330 27880 26610 41620 14120 36980 69930 42340 33370 40960 84410 56690 131200 56710 106500 43390 260000 115900 28150 91030 32230 31360 52210 167300 72160 53430 18880 18440 185300 35350 89010 15330 30690 18700 68580 21410 26310 47280 54640 45370 50010 30710 92190 25960 19180 24520 41570 45410 36510 100300 38720 103100 42760 65500 45700 25920 30010 48800 40230 33050 129600 49310 21430 63370 72000 20130 31940 76040 98630 41570 104700 43340 19070 76210 4770 48920 25130 29490 41550 70700 81220 66710 25380 49050 53750 96490 44620 27310 50370 66680 69130 20010 62710 14060 73630 27070 23260 24290 87450 36410 27150 38630 32770 10840 12920 91420 105700 28540 28350 35150 92960 27540 36700 176300 5348 89210 49790 68630 41530 34500 22080 47870 33790 91160 21970 25840 41720 26350 119800 37320 28220 42090 37130 44080 34130 51210 76320 57750 97160 33800 49030 63140 42170 28290 28100 29200 97560 67600 82220 37200 32240 92660 29070 69170 46070 66950 68190 76610 25430 27720 35450 58910 41350 38330 27240 41400 30730 60000 40410 39990 25930 16670 101200 80390 35060 27570 35630 39960 110400 88300 86080 110900 72330 44660 33320 38990 43260 24870 37230 45580 13250 33110 36470 26680 62040 31480 46040 64280 110400 138000 36630 48040 105600 34120 54860 84280 31120 32730 36690 35270 54500 33950 28780 60240
2022-03-26 64910 71900 18300 29230 37930 33310 52480 51620 21850 79170 45640 39990 40530 63130 24060 67020 119500 84540 23280 62840 53700 37040 56420 60470 123400 77640 330500 33520 54240 46370 20460 24570 90620 19810 124300 39840 165400 46300 36130 97850 25270 39770 90440 158600 36810 103000 31590 31000 34990 31550 63110 49850 63310 40030 67800 32370 44060 99760 34170 46470 29420 45260 91770 12270 58000 58300 34270 48830 120100 112300 31780 32860 29530 38980 163100 18480 60820 6061 25400 21740 25670 144600 21890 170400 105800 15560 38660 118500 48410 35370 38160 26500 23650 81120 18350 59960 102200 96560 32770 102900 39520 49440 113700 45280 25010 38820 39910 34090 47100 34460 33020 27320 35890 98000 38500 62830 31130 42110 13410 46710 92690 41880 26670 34980 38760 56240 33100 28930 40930 114800 37920 31810 22330 24280 65070 38260 217700 40300 24990 35110 28910 85820 44100 25970 86400 46590 24450 60420 28920 79620 30840 49090 77680 30750 32160 28150 36550 85860 48150 35480 27930 60100 96090 34760 41810 90720 52590 27920 26760 41810 14140 37180 70130 42440 33500 41190 84580 56900 131500 56840 106800 43530 260600 116100 28300 91270 32320 31470 52400 167700 72290 53630 18980 18550 185600 35440 89280 15380 30880 18710 68800 21530 26470 47540 54750 45520 50100 30860 92460 26090 19190 24740 41610 45670 36630 100500 38820 103300 42810 65660 45990 26100 30110 48900 40420 33220 130200 49470 21550 63750 72180 20180 32030 76260 98920 41750 104900 43450 19110 76320 4811 49090 25170 29530 41790 70880 81630 66980 25410 49160 53910 96680 44700 27390 50600 67170 69230 20050 62960 14110 73720 27170 23300 24420 87630 36520 27260 38770 32890 10880 12970 91570 105800 28630 28530 35330 93240 27620 36860 176700 5396 89660 49870 68810 41810 34730 22160 48140 33910 91610 22100 25940 41900 26490 120400 37530 28330 42290 37240 44350 34230 51290 76590 57950 97410 33910 49240 63310 42320 28380 28200 29370 97820 67750 82400 37360 32450 92870 29170 69410 46270 67010 68470 76750 25480 27840 35650 59100 41540 38520 27400 41580 30850 60150 40560 40200 25960 16780 101400 80600 35200 27680 35670 40200 110600 88460 86300 111200 72560 44830 33410 39190 43490 24950 37360 45850 13350 33260 36580 26790 62310 31630 46230 64430 110600 138700 36820 48230 106000 34240 55100 84430 31230 32890 36740 35420 54660 34050 28880 60460

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.