COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-03-23 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-03-23

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-03-23

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-24 --2022-03-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-162022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 1126 1275 1525 804 437 780 1774 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 3477 4581 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 2285 1199 3307 17521 1550 3317 2250 319 962 4696 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 508 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 1302 2002 2935 611 2895 1143 2214 1302 1418 1131 1362 528 1222 456 3005 192 2422 2091 1033 1466 3801 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7754 684 1939 58 774 995 3960 513 7900 4326 551 1426 5019 1559 1550 1634 862 267 3466 481 896 4767 2335 1159 4687 2036 1878 4677 1747 663 1048 1254 885 1468 1093 1560 891 1505 3182 1563 1625 976 1274 417 1353 3625 1652 982 1189 1007 2291 930 917 560 6120 482 1022 779 884 2871 1519 6951 1464 847 1510 1137 3360 1261 323 3318 2105 817 2104 1115 3254 1188 1498 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 1707 1188 1044 2486 3914 1327 1158 3872 1474 1689 886 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 3609 2021 6117 3336 4514 1732 11029 6320 803 3519 1176 1238 694 9205 3848 1963 580 540 10177 1515 3625 516 696 246 2554 503 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1347 3381 825 61 1495 532 1263 1329 4887 1519 5335 518 1141 1531 659 963 1941 1111 1060 3573 1824 525 1868 2932 835 1179 2965 3811 1403 5264 1790 839 4269 264 1562 291 1808 2223 3085 2613 2589 315 2466 2199 4529 2322 1065 1632 1775 1026 776 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 4307 1311 892 1297 1206 259 344 4748 5886 951 1365 1073 4438 857 1175 8405 632 3240 2347 2862 1130 1408 768 1599 1218 2982 587 863 1470 763 4031 1059 875 1101 1609 1007 1377 2510 3022 2379 4073 1253 1583 3012 1783 1077 992 1278 3842 3631 3812 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 890 2290 3757 968 844 990 2555 1394 1055 812 1551 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 100 1143 5038 4407 3811 4283 2987 1563 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 814 1620 922 2543 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 4157 1188 796 397 1077 2155 1437 1060 2087
Days since peak 45 45 58 58 58 45 58 86 45 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 85 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 85 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 85 58 58 58 58 58 85 58 84 58 84 58 84 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 45 45 58 8 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 84 58 58 84 58 58 58 58 45 45 58 45 58 58 45 58 58 58 45 58 45 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 45 58 58 84 45 85 58 58 58 58 58 29 58 58 58 58 58 58 85 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 45 58 58 58 58 58 58 45 58 85 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 86 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 45 58 58 7 45 84 58 58 58 58 58 86 58 45 58 58 58 58 58 29 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 45 58 85 58 45 58 58 58 83 58 58 58 58 58 58 29 86 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 45 58 58 58 58 58 45 58 58 58 58 45 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 45 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 45 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 84 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 84 58 58 58 58 58 8 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 29 58 58 45 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 85 58 58 58 58 58
Last total 63993 70160 18092 29105 37648 32553 51979 51136 21388 78575 45172 39872 40028 62460 23671 66785 118678 84489 23201 62350 53235 36887 55958 60026 122646 77208 329688 33472 54131 46268 20602 24525 90496 19643 123643 39431 164922 45846 35562 97333 24984 39930 89555 157251 36326 102080 31403 30772 34874 31505 62936 50068 63278 39666 67224 32282 43597 100164 33903 46699 29064 44931 90958 12380 57766 57763 33956 48429 119378 111670 31481 32429 29290 38751 161647 18106 60164 5839 25549 21581 25523 142688 21563 170048 105475 15427 38226 117539 47937 35381 37920 26231 23852 80751 18187 59724 101713 95480 32452 102596 38868 48929 112989 44178 24649 38259 39301 33596 46564 34312 32407 27129 35279 97537 38381 61889 30675 41669 13257 46234 92282 41579 26409 34781 38432 55022 32656 28743 40654 113617 38147 31386 22054 24224 65048 38084 216215 39980 24737 34936 28676 85309 43583 26116 85734 46371 24328 59916 28668 79087 30563 48774 77166 30440 32148 27670 36088 85273 47833 35156 27642 58679 95497 34506 41193 90182 51911 27882 26492 41424 14282 36770 69684 42106 33188 40559 84436 56271 131191 56654 106197 43238 259504 115797 27885 90535 32206 31188 51810 166947 71968 53196 18631 18287 184973 35280 88631 15226 30477 18839 68169 21301 25972 46759 54573 45133 50075 30446 91966 25665 19379 24065 41753 45055 36423 100222 38689 102951 43001 65353 44751 25795 29952 48797 39909 32877 128642 49204 21258 63229 72102 20116 31921 75680 98526 41301 104573 43293 19054 76135 4604 48805 25304 29506 41360 70426 81174 66389 25585 48930 53586 96193 44685 27271 49994 66201 69520 20009 62285 14065 73629 26963 23269 23935 87514 36339 26984 38469 32711 10794 12916 91357 105687 28559 28070 35044 92615 27526 36393 175887 5266 88672 49676 68440 41202 34227 21978 47457 33668 90454 21867 25721 41510 26183 118093 36933 28081 41869 37015 43889 34111 51318 76075 57351 96859 33642 48715 63071 42113 28300 27921 28848 97202 67554 82253 37008 31930 92744 28968 68762 45842 67168 67997 76635 25464 27520 35287 58803 41214 38063 27072 41321 30562 59671 40221 39803 26080 16679 101052 80217 34807 27295 35823 39601 110604 88314 85758 110416 72157 44505 33161 38631 42884 24679 37047 45211 13243 32649 36341 26518 61519 31347 45727 64023 110467 137303 36428 47745 105328 33914 54469 84264 31009 32409 36988 35147 54379 33820 28689 60176
Last daily increment 414 529 74 128 165 204 190 247 169 186 203 162 177 319 133 115 362 266 83 208 306 129 364 275 443 238 714 128 92 183 38 104 205 74 619 175 429 209 182 212 101 34 340 794 185 341 159 75 153 81 148 26 248 265 243 154 247 147 169 40 83 183 434 13 241 236 227 274 566 464 130 152 127 132 1060 115 213 119 18 85 68 1173 135 660 342 76 127 296 185 134 135 100 35 304 96 197 339 626 215 310 288 236 269 281 156 288 221 184 219 139 237 145 192 454 171 386 114 218 59 207 233 133 80 145 248 402 208 164 190 804 64 151 101 124 261 127 1196 170 144 105 107 260 200 35 223 192 125 175 147 223 83 256 245 166 81 104 184 216 296 124 104 554 228 131 170 188 284 55 236 242 13 227 233 112 139 201 256 249 476 174 323 222 855 256 117 267 119 121 154 526 155 212 95 115 416 136 306 58 190 31 218 158 176 256 131 163 149 211 440 93 24 168 58 257 143 352 190 192 31 195 317 228 133 137 211 180 776 218 158 433 349 73 156 221 473 223 249 153 46 139 31 222 2 61 284 223 563 259 49 129 158 209 149 116 186 398 59 67 200 67 133 105 56 81 246 154 112 174 139 53 92 248 200 132 244 215 386 118 146 516 70 489 119 207 323 293 81 277 141 502 166 118 198 170 667 196 149 233 111 342 137 169 307 221 329 105 228 217 186 154 116 187 345 197 320 207 217 309 136 213 211 65 313 207 105 105 274 240 206 214 169 237 107 141 175 237 20 133 249 285 178 117 55 251 376 258 251 348 278 248 78 189 203 72 170 241 124 203 128 110 409 181 240 212 268 886 197 214 438 157 258 272 139 151 59 202 219 106 119 320
Last week 2152 2958 606 811 1078 1211 1147 1362 1013 1043 1319 968 1199 1810 883 777 2262 1575 618 1505 1774 741 2015 1575 2343 1492 4241 660 567 960 382 563 1193 438 4016 1221 2195 1228 1109 1353 543 417 2285 4466 1123 2367 798 590 897 360 1041 579 1151 1426 1580 797 1478 1305 1088 624 641 1015 2545 210 1304 1526 1259 1623 3346 3055 864 1012 908 734 5911 705 1696 728 295 511 411 7405 922 3525 1909 380 867 2084 1070 778 758 649 373 1795 631 1175 2115 4258 1132 1776 1708 1291 1691 1902 970 1562 1439 1255 1442 1109 1485 820 1090 2720 952 2468 776 1390 397 1299 1428 823 593 847 1368 2262 1379 853 989 4348 561 1031 726 649 1411 796 6445 1069 1011 679 668 1644 1274 357 1441 1033 686 1104 688 1406 610 1330 1457 1172 423 731 1190 1415 1734 816 727 3412 1549 706 1286 1355 1693 340 1094 1473 212 1554 1500 857 800 1280 1589 1484 2542 1038 2033 1169 4899 1364 826 1889 772 726 1044 3130 955 1339 638 707 2599 799 2003 354 1303 216 1526 848 1023 1562 754 907 731 1223 2325 738 371 1213 375 1792 952 1943 989 1234 563 1121 2086 1371 787 891 1380 1077 4094 1337 754 2754 1707 461 729 1270 2568 1198 1543 815 331 895 151 1245 425 339 1686 1370 3290 1952 396 802 1110 1287 770 636 1395 2463 875 363 1490 327 862 749 349 703 1653 847 685 935 891 299 459 1377 1228 806 1401 1358 2206 720 933 3304 327 3199 652 1355 2027 1733 520 1750 832 3074 1020 746 1256 987 4106 1242 799 1536 768 1953 740 905 1922 1356 1943 745 1380 1287 1161 790 738 1136 1964 1029 1718 1146 1293 1846 842 1559 1298 592 2022 1301 534 776 1572 1438 1367 1430 1039 1474 751 1037 1058 1607 333 845 1649 1695 1052 743 532 1616 2067 1403 1486 2361 1675 1318 570 1221 1359 488 925 1715 720 1190 776 684 2346 1186 1426 1333 1755 5785 1355 1339 2806 797 1683 1349 774 1031 513 1262 1345 749 787 1776
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-052021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-152021-12-292021-12-282021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-12-272021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-29 -- --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 72 159 115 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 32 403 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 67 56 82 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 72 101 274 115 49 189 31 184 116 384 105 164 123 94 256 1294 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 143 118 343 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 303 200 152 243 70 131 87 77 91 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 329 219 85 143 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 422 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 59 18 128 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 73 35 58 22 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 27 25 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 56 26 58 49 49 57 36 30 35 6 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 199 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 57 27 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 20 36 58 32 24 22 2 75 54 120 38 54 61 39 68 157 83 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 51 19 108 49 51 68 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 17 56 25 104 38 28 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 22 58 34 40 149 59 28 35 35 42 55 94 56 65 34 49 36 27 38 118 78 85 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 30 34 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 38 36 172 70 94 86 69 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 28 31 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-03-24 to 2022-03-30

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-03-23 63993 70160 18092 29105 37648 32553 51979 51136 21388 78575 45172 39872 40028 62460 23671 66785 118678 84489 23201 62350 53235 36887 55958 60026 122646 77208 329688 33472 54131 46268 20602 24525 90496 19643 123643 39431 164922 45846 35562 97333 24984 39930 89555 157251 36326 102080 31403 30772 34874 31505 62936 50068 63278 39666 67224 32282 43597 100164 33903 46699 29064 44931 90958 12380 57766 57763 33956 48429 119378 111670 31481 32429 29290 38751 161647 18106 60164 5839 25549 21581 25523 142688 21563 170048 105475 15427 38226 117539 47937 35381 37920 26231 23852 80751 18187 59724 101713 95480 32452 102596 38868 48929 112989 44178 24649 38259 39301 33596 46564 34312 32407 27129 35279 97537 38381 61889 30675 41669 13257 46234 92282 41579 26409 34781 38432 55022 32656 28743 40654 113617 38147 31386 22054 24224 65048 38084 216215 39980 24737 34936 28676 85309 43583 26116 85734 46371 24328 59916 28668 79087 30563 48774 77166 30440 32148 27670 36088 85273 47833 35156 27642 58679 95497 34506 41193 90182 51911 27882 26492 41424 14282 36770 69684 42106 33188 40559 84436 56271 131191 56654 106197 43238 259504 115797 27885 90535 32206 31188 51810 166947 71968 53196 18631 18287 184973 35280 88631 15226 30477 18839 68169 21301 25972 46759 54573 45133 50075 30446 91966 25665 19379 24065 41753 45055 36423 100222 38689 102951 43001 65353 44751 25795 29952 48797 39909 32877 128642 49204 21258 63229 72102 20116 31921 75680 98526 41301 104573 43293 19054 76135 4604 48805 25304 29506 41360 70426 81174 66389 25585 48930 53586 96193 44685 27271 49994 66201 69520 20009 62285 14065 73629 26963 23269 23935 87514 36339 26984 38469 32711 10794 12916 91357 105687 28559 28070 35044 92615 27526 36393 175887 5266 88672 49676 68440 41202 34227 21978 47457 33668 90454 21867 25721 41510 26183 118093 36933 28081 41869 37015 43889 34111 51318 76075 57351 96859 33642 48715 63071 42113 28300 27921 28848 97202 67554 82253 37008 31930 92744 28968 68762 45842 67168 67997 76635 25464 27520 35287 58803 41214 38063 27072 41321 30562 59671 40221 39803 26080 16679 101052 80217 34807 27295 35823 39601 110604 88314 85758 110416 72157 44505 33161 38631 42884 24679 37047 45211 13243 32649 36341 26518 61519 31347 45727 64023 110467 137303 36428 47745 105328 33914 54469 84264 31009 32409 36988 35147 54379 33820 28689 60176
2022-03-24 64470 70610 18190 29230 37820 32780 52170 51350 21660 78750 45400 40030 40230 62770 23770 66870 119000 84700 23300 62560 53520 36970 56240 60210 123000 77400 330400 33590 54250 46330 20670 24620 90690 19720 124300 39560 165300 46040 35750 97520 25090 40000 89950 157900 36510 102400 31550 30880 35020 31600 63100 50170 63460 39800 67400 32430 43830 100300 34080 46700 29170 45100 91360 12400 57980 57950 34160 48690 119900 111900 31630 32600 29430 38790 162600 18310 60450 5962 25590 21660 25590 143800 21710 170400 105800 15510 38370 117900 48130 35510 38000 26340 23880 80980 18250 59900 102000 96200 32600 102900 39150 49210 113200 44620 24800 38510 39690 33810 46840 34440 32840 27270 35580 97900 38550 62220 30810 41930 13320 46370 92500 41720 26500 34920 38640 55620 32790 28870 40810 114300 38210 31570 22170 24330 65320 38210 217500 40140 24890 35040 28770 85500 43800 26170 85970 46530 24450 60090 28800 79310 30710 48860 77340 30620 32220 27800 36280 85500 48110 35270 27730 59260 95720 34620 41410 90370 52180 27950 26680 41760 14290 36990 69950 42260 33320 40780 84610 56550 131700 56810 106500 43380 260200 115900 28020 90800 32330 31310 51990 167200 72110 53410 18760 18410 185300 35440 88930 15280 30690 18870 68390 21400 26170 47030 54680 45290 50210 30680 92330 25790 19380 24270 41840 45310 36510 100600 38810 103100 43100 65520 45340 26000 30080 48920 40190 33020 129300 49370 21370 63680 72450 20130 32040 75890 98800 41490 104800 43440 19100 76290 4621 49030 25300 29550 41640 70640 81620 66660 25650 49040 53680 96410 44830 27390 50260 66750 69660 20060 62520 14110 73780 27060 23350 24060 87760 36450 27090 38620 32840 10840 12990 91580 105900 28660 28330 35260 92880 27610 36550 176200 5305 89190 49760 68700 41470 34520 22060 47740 33770 90980 22030 25870 41710 26340 118900 37140 28210 42000 37110 44210 34220 51440 76390 57600 97070 33740 48940 63190 42290 28430 28040 29120 97570 67670 82530 37160 32150 92890 29090 69020 46050 67320 68310 76830 25540 27610 35490 58870 41420 38210 27210 41410 30680 59830 40390 40130 26130 16820 101300 80330 34980 27450 35870 39880 111000 88500 85970 110800 72420 44710 33250 38830 43110 24760 37200 45480 13360 32910 36440 26630 61950 31530 46000 64200 110700 138200 36630 47930 105700 34050 54750 84420 31130 32580 37070 35350 54590 33930 28780 60280
2022-03-25 64760 71010 18290 29340 38000 32920 52380 51560 21810 78970 45620 40180 40420 63100 23860 66970 119300 84890 23360 62710 53780 37040 56550 60390 123400 77580 331000 33710 54340 46430 20750 24690 90840 19790 124800 39690 165600 46210 35920 97690 25180 40080 90300 158600 36690 102700 31680 30960 35150 31660 63270 50310 63610 39960 67600 32560 44010 100500 34250 46700 29280 45220 91670 12400 58160 58120 34320 48930 120300 112300 31780 32780 29540 38850 163400 18420 60750 6061 25610 21710 25650 144900 21830 170800 106000 15560 38520 118200 48280 35620 38090 26420 23910 81210 18330 60020 102300 96900 32740 103200 39340 49390 113500 44810 24930 38690 39920 34040 47080 34500 33100 27400 35760 98200 38700 62520 30990 42140 13380 46530 92700 41860 26560 35060 38770 55960 32910 28940 40930 114800 38260 31730 22270 24420 65570 38340 218300 40260 25040 35110 28830 85690 43980 26210 86200 46670 24580 60260 28920 79490 30820 48970 77520 30810 32280 27980 36440 85710 48350 35380 27830 59920 95970 34740 41630 90560 52420 28000 26810 42000 14290 37190 70160 42380 33440 41030 84810 56790 132100 56910 106800 43530 260900 116000 28160 91060 32450 31410 52250 167600 72220 53580 18870 18510 185600 35570 89170 15320 30910 18900 68600 21490 26400 47300 54760 45460 50320 30860 92640 25930 19380 24480 41930 45550 36600 100900 38930 103200 43230 65650 45680 26180 30200 49040 40400 33150 129800 49450 21450 64150 72730 20160 32130 76090 99100 41660 104900 43570 19120 76440 4649 49220 25300 29590 41870 70830 81970 66920 25740 49150 53780 96600 44960 27490 50470 67090 69780 20100 62750 14130 73900 27150 23400 24240 87960 36570 27190 38730 32920 10890 13050 91780 106000 28760 28500 35460 93160 27650 36700 176500 5337 89680 49860 68920 41650 34780 22120 47990 33890 91540 22180 25990 41860 26450 119900 37360 28300 42160 37210 44490 34320 51580 76680 57800 97310 33840 49120 63320 42450 28540 28140 29290 97910 67790 82760 37310 32380 93090 29170 69250 46230 67430 68610 77010 25600 27690 35590 58970 41560 38380 27310 41530 30780 59960 40520 40410 26190 16950 101500 80490 35130 27570 35890 40170 111300 88670 86160 111100 72670 44880 33340 39030 43330 24860 37310 45700 13440 33070 36540 26740 62260 31700 46220 64360 110900 139200 36780 48060 106100 34160 55040 84590 31200 32780 37140 35550 54780 34030 28880 60430
2022-03-26 65020 71430 18380 29450 38130 33030 52580 51770 21940 79170 45840 40330 40610 63410 23940 67070 119500 85100 23440 62890 54040 37120 56820 60560 123800 77770 331500 33820 54410 46530 20830 24780 91010 19860 125400 39830 165900 46340 36100 97860 25240 40150 90580 159100 36870 103100 31790 31030 35290 31710 63410 50440 63780 40100 67770 32700 44210 100600 34430 46700 29390 45370 92020 12400 58330 58300 34500 49170 120700 112600 31930 32960 29660 38920 164300 18520 61050 6168 25640 21770 25710 146000 21960 171100 106300 15610 38670 118500 48440 35720 38180 26510 23920 81440 18390 60160 102600 97600 32860 103500 39550 49540 113700 45000 25070 38890 40120 34260 47280 34590 33330 27530 35900 98600 38860 62800 31150 42340 13440 46670 92890 41960 26640 35200 38940 56250 33040 29040 41060 115400 38320 31860 22370 24510 65780 38460 218900 40400 25190 35190 28900 85860 44140 26230 86430 46810 24700 60390 29040 79680 30910 49090 77700 30990 32340 28140 36610 85890 48600 35500 27910 60520 96160 34860 41860 90740 52650 28040 26960 42200 14290 37360 70320 42480 33570 41260 84980 57000 132500 57030 107000 43650 261500 116200 28290 91290 32550 31520 52470 167900 72340 53770 18950 18610 185800 35680 89430 15370 31130 18940 68790 21570 26610 47570 54850 45620 50440 31020 92970 26070 19380 24690 42020 45770 36690 101200 39040 103300 43340 65790 45950 26370 30320 49160 40610 33290 130400 49570 21540 64610 72970 20190 32220 76280 99400 41810 105100 43700 19140 76560 4670 49390 25300 29640 42130 71000 82350 67150 25820 49250 53880 96780 45080 27590 50680 67350 69910 20140 62990 14160 74000 27220 23450 24390 88180 36690 27290 38850 33020 10940 13110 91980 106200 28850 28660 35660 93420 27710 36850 176800 5370 90180 49940 69100 41860 35050 22200 48250 34000 92070 22330 26100 42030 26570 120700 37570 28410 42280 37300 44770 34400 51680 76980 57980 97500 33940 49320 63460 42620 28650 28250 29440 98210 67910 83010 37460 32590 93280 29270 69470 46420 67500 68910 77180 25660 27770 35730 59100 41730 38520 27430 41640 30880 60070 40660 40640 26250 17090 101700 80640 35260 27670 35930 40450 111600 88840 86330 111300 72900 45070 33440 39230 43560 24950 37430 45940 13530 33220 36630 26850 62530 31880 46390 64490 111100 140100 36960 48210 106500 34280 55330 84760 31290 32970 37210 35740 54970 34120 28980 60600
2022-03-27 65340 71860 18480 29570 38270 33200 52770 51970 22090 79370 46050 40470 40800 63710 24050 67190 119900 85330 23530 63090 54310 37230 57090 60780 124100 78010 332200 33930 54510 46650 20900 24860 91190 19930 126000 39970 166300 46540 36280 98030 25340 40230 90870 159800 37050 103400 31900 31110 35420 31760 63580 50550 63940 40300 67970 32840 44420 100800 34590 46710 29500 45510 92380 12410 58510 58490 34680 49420 121200 113000 32070 33120 29790 39010 165200 18630 61330 6279 25670 21840 25770 147100 22100 171600 106600 15670 38810 118800 48610 35840 38290 26610 23950 81700 18470 60310 102900 98300 33030 103800 39770 49700 113900 45270 25210 39110 40330 34470 47470 34700 33580 27660 36060 98900 39000 63180 31290 42560 13500 46810 93090 42090 26720 35330 39120 56590 33240 29140 41190 116100 38380 32010 22480 24600 66010 38580 219700 40540 25330 35280 28980 86080 44330 26270 86660 46960 24810 60540 29160 79880 31010 49230 77910 31180 32400 28290 36780 86110 48860 35610 28020 61100 96400 34970 42070 90930 52900 28100 27120 42440 14290 37560 70530 42600 33700 41480 85200 57240 132900 57160 107300 43820 262200 116300 28430 91540 32670 31630 52660 168400 72480 53970 19060 18720 186200 35800 89740 15420 31330 18970 69000 21680 26800 47840 54940 45770 50550 31210 93310 26200 19380 24890 42100 46030 36790 101500 39180 103500 43440 65940 46270 26560 30440 49300 40850 33450 131000 49700 21640 65050 73280 20240 32320 76480 99800 41990 105300 43830 19180 76690 4687 49590 25310 29690 42390 71220 82740 67420 25890 49360 54020 96990 45230 27690 50900 67610 70040 20180 63230 14200 74120 27360 23520 24530 88410 36810 27390 38980 33130 10980 13180 92180 106400 28960 28890 35860 93730 27780 37010 177200 5419 90670 50030 69330 42090 35320 22270 48510 34120 92580 22480 26220 42210 26710 121500 37770 28520 42450 37410 45060 34490 51810 77270 58210 97730 34040 49520 63640 42780 28770 28360 29640 98540 68070 83260 37630 32800 93510 29370 69750 46610 67590 69210 77400 25740 27870 35900 59270 41910 38690 27550 41820 30990 60210 40810 40880 26300 17220 101900 80840 35420 27790 36000 40720 111900 89040 86550 111600 73150 45260 33530 39420 43770 25040 37580 46180 13630 33400 36740 26960 62880 32060 46610 64660 111400 140900 37140 48380 106900 34400 55600 84960 31390 33150 37290 35930 55170 34240 29070 60820
2022-03-28 65780 72290 18570 29690 38450 33440 52960 52170 22290 79560 46270 40620 40990 64010 24170 67330 120300 85590 23620 63280 54570 37380 57410 61070 124500 78270 333000 34040 54620 46790 20970 24940 91360 20000 126600 40140 166700 46770 36460 98260 25430 40290 91330 160600 37230 103800 32040 31230 35560 31840 63780 50660 64100 40540 68250 32970 44630 101000 34760 46760 29610 45660 92750 12420 58740 58760 34870 49660 121800 113600 32210 33290 29920 39110 166100 18750 61620 6392 25710 21910 25840 148200 22230 172100 106900 15730 38960 119200 48810 35950 38420 26710 24000 81960 18590 60460 103100 99000 33240 104200 40040 49990 114200 45600 25350 39320 40620 34670 47740 34810 33820 27790 36290 99400 39150 63620 31440 42800 13550 46980 93390 42240 26800 35460 39300 56980 33450 29250 41330 116700 38440 32200 22590 24690 66230 38710 221000 40690 25480 35370 29070 86380 44570 26390 86890 47130 24930 60770 29270 80140 31130 49410 78150 31360 32470 28430 36960 86390 49110 35730 28160 61680 96680 35080 42290 91200 53210 28150 27280 42720 14290 37900 70830 42770 33820 41700 85490 57530 133200 57300 107600 44030 263100 116600 28560 91880 32790 31740 52860 168900 72610 54170 19170 18830 186700 35930 90120 15470 31540 19000 69290 21830 26990 48100 55040 45920 50660 31400 93650 26320 19400 25090 42190 46350 36950 101700 39330 103700 43540 66090 46640 26750 30560 49460 41090 33650 131600 49850 21740 65500 73580 20300 32430 76680 100100 42200 105600 43950 19210 76860 4704 49800 25360 29750 42650 71470 83140 67790 25960 49530 54200 97250 45370 27790 51190 67990 70170 20230 63470 14240 74290 27490 23590 24670 88640 36940 27490 39120 33240 11030 13240 92440 106600 29100 29130 36060 94110 27860 37160 177700 5484 91160 50160 69570 42330 35580 22350 48780 34280 93090 22630 26370 42390 26840 122300 37980 28630 42670 37550 45350 34600 51960 77570 58450 98090 34180 49720 63900 42950 28910 28470 29860 98950 68240 83510 37860 33010 93770 29480 70050 46800 67710 69510 77630 25840 28010 36070 59480 42090 38900 27680 42040 31120 60370 40970 41160 26360 17350 102200 81100 35650 27940 36110 40990 112300 89240 86810 112100 73430 45450 33620 39620 43990 25120 37750 46430 13730 33630 36890 27070 63260 32230 46850 64900 111700 141800 37330 48550 107300 34530 55880 85160 31500 33320 37360 36120 55370 34370 29190 61070
2022-03-29 66170 72730 18670 29810 38640 33610 53140 52380 22460 79750 46490 40770 41190 64320 24290 67480 120700 85820 23710 63490 54840 37520 57730 61350 124900 78530 333700 34140 54720 46960 21040 25030 91550 20070 127100 40330 167000 47000 36640 98500 25520 40360 91760 161400 37410 104300 32160 31340 35690 31900 63970 50760 64270 40770 68550 33110 44850 101300 34930 46810 29710 45820 93140 12440 58960 58970 35060 49910 122400 114100 32350 33460 30050 39210 167000 18840 61910 6510 25750 21980 25900 149300 22370 172600 107100 15800 39100 119600 48990 36090 38550 26810 24050 82240 18700 60620 103400 99600 33420 104500 40330 50210 114600 45830 25490 39550 40890 34880 48000 34930 34040 27920 36500 99700 39300 64040 31580 43050 13610 47160 93650 42380 26890 35590 39490 57310 33630 29360 41480 117400 38510 32390 22700 24780 66430 38830 222200 40840 25620 35470 29160 86660 44780 26440 87120 47310 25040 60980 29390 80390 31230 49590 78420 31540 32530 28560 37140 86640 49370 35850 28270 62250 96970 35200 42510 91460 53480 28210 27450 43000 14300 38160 71130 42930 33950 41920 85770 57790 133600 57440 108000 44210 263900 116800 28700 92200 32940 31850 53040 169500 72750 54370 19280 18940 187100 36070 90440 15520 31740 19030 69550 21980 27180 48370 55140 46070 50780 31590 94000 26440 19430 25300 42270 46650 37100 102000 39500 103900 43640 66250 46970 26940 30680 49620 41340 33840 132200 50010 21840 65940 73910 20360 32540 76880 100500 42430 105900 44080 19250 77010 4720 49990 25400 29810 42920 71720 83560 68130 26030 49660 54370 97490 45510 27900 51420 68430 70300 20280 63710 14280 74440 27620 23660 24790 88880 37090 27600 39260 33370 11080 13310 92660 106900 29230 29350 36270 94470 27940 37310 178200 5543 91660 50300 69800 42580 35850 22420 49050 34420 93600 22790 26500 42570 26980 123100 38180 28750 42870 37700 45650 34710 52090 77870 58680 98410 34310 49930 64130 43120 29030 28580 30020 99300 68430 83770 38050 33220 94060 29600 70350 47000 67830 69820 77850 25920 28130 36260 59670 42290 39110 27820 42230 31260 60540 41130 41440 26410 17480 102500 81330 35820 28070 36210 41260 112700 89470 87090 112600 73730 45650 33710 39810 44210 25210 37920 46680 13830 33860 37030 27180 63680 32410 47100 65140 111900 142700 37520 48730 107800 34660 56150 85410 31610 33490 37440 36310 55570 34500 29320 61340
2022-03-30 66580 73180 18760 29930 38790 33870 53330 52590 22630 79950 46710 40920 41380 64620 24430 67610 121000 86040 23800 63700 55110 37630 58070 61600 125200 78760 334400 34250 54800 47110 21100 25110 91730 20150 127700 40510 167400 47200 36820 98690 25620 40430 92110 162200 37590 104600 32300 31420 35830 31970 64110 50870 64440 41010 68780 33220 45070 101400 35100 46860 29820 45980 93530 12450 59160 59210 35250 50160 122900 114500 32490 33630 30190 39340 168000 18970 62190 6629 25800 22060 25970 150400 22510 173200 107400 15870 39250 119900 49170 36200 38680 26910 24090 82530 18780 60790 103700 100300 33610 104700 40610 50440 114800 46160 25640 39780 41120 35090 48230 35050 34280 28050 36700 100200 39440 64410 31720 43270 13670 47360 93850 42510 26980 35730 39690 57750 33840 29480 41620 118100 38570 32530 22810 24880 66630 38960 223400 40990 25770 35570 29260 86910 44970 26480 87350 47480 25150 61180 29500 80610 31320 49830 78660 31720 32600 28700 37320 86860 49620 35970 28370 62820 97210 35310 42720 91680 53750 28260 27630 43230 14310 38360 71360 43040 34080 42130 86020 58020 134000 57590 108300 44410 264700 117100 28830 92470 33050 31960 53220 170000 72890 54570 19380 19050 187500 36210 90750 15570 31940 19070 69780 22110 27370 48630 55240 46210 50890 31800 94350 26570 19460 25500 42350 46900 37240 102300 39670 104100 43740 66400 47300 27130 30810 49750 41540 34000 132800 50170 21950 66380 74170 20430 32640 77080 101000 42640 106100 44210 19290 77140 4735 50180 25430 29860 43190 71930 83980 68380 26100 49780 54550 97690 45610 28000 51610 68870 70430 20320 63950 14330 74570 27720 23700 24920 89120 37230 27700 39400 33490 11130 13370 92880 107000 29350 29580 36470 94810 28030 37460 178800 5601 92150 50410 70000 42830 36130 22500 49330 34540 94100 22940 26610 42760 27130 123800 38380 28870 43090 37810 45950 34840 52250 78170 58900 98710 34420 50150 64320 43290 29150 28690 30220 99600 68620 84040 38230 33430 94370 29720 70560 47200 67900 70120 78050 26010 28240 36450 59900 42480 39330 27950 42470 31370 60710 41290 41670 26460 17610 102800 81620 35980 28190 36260 41520 113000 89700 87320 112900 73990 45850 33810 40010 44420 25290 38060 46940 13930 34050 37150 27290 64080 32590 47340 65350 112200 143600 37720 48910 108200 34790 56420 85660 31720 33660 37520 36510 55770 34610 29430 61630

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-03-24 to 2022-03-30

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-03-23 63993 70160 18092 29105 37648 32553 51979 51136 21388 78575 45172 39872 40028 62460 23671 66785 118678 84489 23201 62350 53235 36887 55958 60026 122646 77208 329688 33472 54131 46268 20602 24525 90496 19643 123643 39431 164922 45846 35562 97333 24984 39930 89555 157251 36326 102080 31403 30772 34874 31505 62936 50068 63278 39666 67224 32282 43597 100164 33903 46699 29064 44931 90958 12380 57766 57763 33956 48429 119378 111670 31481 32429 29290 38751 161647 18106 60164 5839 25549 21581 25523 142688 21563 170048 105475 15427 38226 117539 47937 35381 37920 26231 23852 80751 18187 59724 101713 95480 32452 102596 38868 48929 112989 44178 24649 38259 39301 33596 46564 34312 32407 27129 35279 97537 38381 61889 30675 41669 13257 46234 92282 41579 26409 34781 38432 55022 32656 28743 40654 113617 38147 31386 22054 24224 65048 38084 216215 39980 24737 34936 28676 85309 43583 26116 85734 46371 24328 59916 28668 79087 30563 48774 77166 30440 32148 27670 36088 85273 47833 35156 27642 58679 95497 34506 41193 90182 51911 27882 26492 41424 14282 36770 69684 42106 33188 40559 84436 56271 131191 56654 106197 43238 259504 115797 27885 90535 32206 31188 51810 166947 71968 53196 18631 18287 184973 35280 88631 15226 30477 18839 68169 21301 25972 46759 54573 45133 50075 30446 91966 25665 19379 24065 41753 45055 36423 100222 38689 102951 43001 65353 44751 25795 29952 48797 39909 32877 128642 49204 21258 63229 72102 20116 31921 75680 98526 41301 104573 43293 19054 76135 4604 48805 25304 29506 41360 70426 81174 66389 25585 48930 53586 96193 44685 27271 49994 66201 69520 20009 62285 14065 73629 26963 23269 23935 87514 36339 26984 38469 32711 10794 12916 91357 105687 28559 28070 35044 92615 27526 36393 175887 5266 88672 49676 68440 41202 34227 21978 47457 33668 90454 21867 25721 41510 26183 118093 36933 28081 41869 37015 43889 34111 51318 76075 57351 96859 33642 48715 63071 42113 28300 27921 28848 97202 67554 82253 37008 31930 92744 28968 68762 45842 67168 67997 76635 25464 27520 35287 58803 41214 38063 27072 41321 30562 59671 40221 39803 26080 16679 101052 80217 34807 27295 35823 39601 110604 88314 85758 110416 72157 44505 33161 38631 42884 24679 37047 45211 13243 32649 36341 26518 61519 31347 45727 64023 110467 137303 36428 47745 105328 33914 54469 84264 31009 32409 36988 35147 54379 33820 28689 60176
2022-03-24 64380 70710 18190 29240 37830 32780 52170 51340 21570 78760 45420 40030 40240 62790 23810 66910 119000 84740 23310 62600 53530 37010 56300 60290 123100 77460 330400 33590 54230 46410 20670 24620 90700 19720 124300 39630 165300 46060 35750 97570 25080 40000 89960 158000 36550 102500 31550 30880 35020 31580 63090 50160 63480 39910 67480 32420 43840 100400 34110 46770 29180 45100 91390 12410 57990 58020 34170 48700 119900 112100 31620 32620 29430 38880 162700 18260 60430 5964 25600 21670 25590 144000 21710 170600 105800 15510 38380 117900 48140 35510 38040 26340 23900 81040 18280 59910 102100 96200 32640 102900 39190 49170 113300 44560 24800 38530 39560 33820 46810 34480 32690 27270 35470 98000 38550 62290 30820 41910 13330 46450 92530 41720 26520 34930 38660 55470 32880 28880 40820 114300 38240 31560 22180 24330 65260 38230 217300 40150 24910 35050 28790 85590 43810 26180 85980 46550 24450 60100 28790 79350 30670 49000 77410 30640 32220 27820 36290 85520 48130 35300 27760 59300 95750 34640 41400 90400 52190 27940 26690 41720 14320 37080 69950 42250 33320 40800 84690 56520 131700 56830 106500 43430 260300 116000 28040 90860 32340 31320 52000 167400 72130 53410 18740 18410 185400 35410 88960 15290 30690 18870 68410 21460 26150 47030 54690 45290 50200 30660 92380 25800 19440 24280 41810 45350 36580 100600 38860 103200 43080 65530 45140 26030 30090 48940 40150 33050 129400 49430 21400 63680 72400 20190 32050 75890 99000 41510 104800 43430 19110 76280 4644 49030 25370 29560 41650 70660 81720 66700 25660 49070 53760 96410 44810 27380 50230 66730 69640 20070 62520 14120 73770 27090 23330 24060 87790 36470 27090 38630 32850 10850 13000 91590 105900 28690 28310 35270 92960 27640 36570 176500 5328 89220 49790 68680 41530 34540 22060 47740 33800 91010 22050 25840 41720 26350 118900 37140 28220 42120 37150 44230 34240 51460 76410 57580 97180 33760 48950 63250 42300 28440 28050 29050 97530 67730 82580 37200 32160 93030 29090 69010 46060 67250 68330 76840 25560 27640 35550 59030 41440 38290 27250 41550 30690 59870 40400 40090 26130 16820 101300 80490 34970 27420 35910 39890 110900 88560 86010 110800 72430 44740 33260 38830 43120 24770 37220 45460 13370 32860 36470 26640 61890 31540 46000 64260 110800 138300 36630 47970 105800 34050 54750 84490 31140 32570 37090 35350 54620 33940 28830 60450
2022-03-25 64720 71200 18280 29360 38010 32980 52360 51540 21730 78950 45650 40160 40440 63090 23950 67020 119400 84930 23400 62830 53800 37120 56620 60500 123400 77670 331000 33680 54310 46530 20740 24690 90870 19790 124900 39820 165600 46260 35940 97770 25180 40060 90340 158700 36750 102800 31670 30980 35150 31640 63230 50260 63630 40110 67730 32520 44060 100600 34290 46830 29300 45240 91770 12450 58180 58260 34360 48940 120400 112600 31780 32790 29560 38990 163400 18370 60700 6080 25630 21750 25660 145100 21870 171100 106100 15570 38540 118200 48300 35610 38150 26440 23950 81300 18380 60060 102400 96900 32800 103200 39450 49390 113600 44860 24950 38750 39810 34020 47040 34630 32930 27400 35610 98400 38690 62670 30960 42110 13400 46660 92750 41860 26610 35060 38850 55810 33080 29000 40960 114900 38330 31740 22290 24420 65440 38350 218200 40300 25070 35150 28890 85840 44010 26230 86210 46700 24550 60280 28900 79560 30780 49180 77630 30830 32270 27950 36480 85750 48400 35440 27880 59880 96010 34760 41610 90620 52460 27990 26860 41940 14360 37250 70190 42380 33460 41040 84900 56760 132000 56970 106900 43600 261000 116200 28180 91170 32440 31430 52190 167800 72280 53600 18850 18520 185800 35530 89240 15350 30920 18900 68640 21590 26320 47300 54780 45440 50300 30840 92730 25950 19500 24500 41860 45620 36720 100800 39000 103300 43170 65670 45470 26250 30210 49060 40360 33210 130100 49620 21530 64050 72630 20250 32140 76090 99300 41690 105000 43560 19160 76420 4681 49220 25430 29600 41910 70870 82190 66990 25730 49200 53920 96610 44910 27460 50460 67160 69780 20110 62780 14160 73890 27200 23370 24210 88010 36590 27200 38760 32970 10890 13060 91780 106100 28800 28500 35470 93280 27730 36740 177000 5382 89710 49880 68900 41830 34820 22140 48010 33920 91520 22200 25960 41910 26480 119600 37350 28340 42360 37260 44530 34360 51580 76700 57800 97490 33880 49160 63410 42470 28540 28170 29220 97850 67890 82800 37380 32400 93280 29210 69250 46270 67340 68640 77000 25630 27760 35770 59230 41630 38520 27420 41760 30810 60040 40560 40350 26190 16950 101600 80730 35130 27550 35980 40160 111200 88740 86240 111200 72680 44930 33350 39040 43350 24860 37350 45740 13470 33030 36590 26750 62210 31710 46230 64460 111000 139200 36820 48180 106200 34180 55010 84670 31240 32740 37150 35540 54830 34050 28940 60680
2022-03-26 65050 71630 18380 29480 38160 33140 52540 51720 21860 79130 45880 40300 40600 63360 24080 67130 119700 85120 23480 63030 54050 37230 56940 60700 123800 77870 331600 33780 54390 46640 20810 24760 91030 19860 125400 39990 165900 46420 36120 97970 25250 40120 90630 159300 36930 103200 31780 31050 35270 31680 63360 50360 63770 40270 67930 32630 44260 100700 34470 46890 29410 45390 92120 12490 58350 58480 34550 49160 120800 113000 31920 32950 29680 39090 164200 18480 60950 6198 25670 21830 25720 146200 22020 171500 106300 15630 38690 118500 48460 35710 38260 26540 23980 81540 18450 60210 102700 97600 32950 103400 39690 49560 113800 45130 25090 38970 40030 34220 47240 34770 33140 27520 35720 98700 38810 63010 31090 42310 13470 46830 92940 41970 26700 35180 39020 56130 33270 29110 41100 115400 38420 31880 22410 24510 65620 38470 219000 40460 25230 35240 28990 86040 44190 26260 86420 46840 24640 60420 29000 79760 30880 49360 77830 31000 32330 28070 36660 85940 48650 35570 27980 60390 96230 34880 41820 90820 52700 28030 27010 42140 14380 37420 70410 42470 33590 41260 85090 56960 132300 57100 107200 43740 261700 116400 28310 91410 32540 31540 52370 168200 72420 53800 18940 18630 186100 35640 89520 15400 31140 18930 68850 21700 26490 47550 54880 45590 50400 31020 93040 26080 19540 24710 41920 45870 36850 101100 39120 103500 43260 65820 45760 26470 30330 49170 40560 33360 130700 49790 21650 64430 72830 20310 32230 76290 99600 41850 105200 43670 19200 76540 4716 49400 25490 29650 42170 71040 82630 67250 25800 49310 54060 96800 45010 27560 50690 67580 69920 20160 63030 14200 74000 27300 23410 24330 88210 36710 27300 38890 33090 10930 13120 91950 106200 28910 28680 35660 93580 27820 36890 177400 5433 90190 49970 69100 42110 35070 22220 48270 34030 92010 22340 26060 42080 26610 120200 37550 28460 42560 37370 44840 34480 51690 76990 58000 97740 33990 49360 63560 42640 28640 28270 29380 98160 68050 82990 37540 32620 93520 29320 69460 46460 67410 68950 77170 25690 27880 35970 59430 41820 38710 27590 41930 30920 60190 40700 40580 26240 17070 101800 80940 35260 27650 36030 40400 111500 88920 86440 111600 72910 45120 33440 39220 43560 24930 37470 46010 13580 33180 36690 26850 62500 31880 46420 64620 111200 140100 37000 48370 106600 34290 55270 84850 31350 32890 37220 35720 55000 34150 29060 60900
2022-03-27 65380 72150 18480 29600 38310 33330 52720 51930 22000 79310 46110 40440 40810 63660 24210 67260 120000 85340 23580 63280 54320 37340 57250 60930 124100 78120 332200 33870 54480 46770 20880 24840 91200 19930 126000 40170 166200 46630 36310 98170 25340 40170 90940 160000 37120 103500 31900 31140 35400 31740 63510 50450 63930 40480 68160 32750 44470 100900 34650 46960 29530 45540 92520 12520 58530 58730 34740 49400 121300 113400 32070 33110 29820 39200 165100 18610 61200 6319 25700 21910 25780 147300 22170 172000 106600 15690 38850 118800 48640 35820 38370 26640 24030 81800 18540 60380 103000 98200 33120 103700 39910 49740 114100 45430 25250 39200 40250 34420 47450 34930 33340 27650 35930 99100 38950 63400 31230 42520 13530 47020 93150 42090 26800 35310 39220 56480 33510 29240 41240 116100 38510 32040 22530 24600 65810 38590 219900 40630 25390 35340 29100 86290 44400 26300 86640 47000 24730 60580 29110 79970 30980 49550 78050 31190 32390 28200 36840 86170 48920 35700 28080 60950 96480 35000 42040 91030 52960 28080 27190 42380 14400 37620 70650 42590 33720 41490 85330 57190 132700 57250 107500 43920 262400 116600 28450 91680 32660 31650 52540 168700 72580 54000 19050 18730 186500 35760 89840 15460 31350 18960 69070 21830 26640 47810 54990 45730 50510 31180 93410 26220 19570 24930 41970 46130 36980 101300 39260 103700 43340 65970 46050 26690 30450 49310 40780 33530 131300 49970 21760 64880 73060 20380 32340 76500 100000 42030 105400 43790 19250 76680 4748 49600 25550 29690 42450 71290 83110 67520 25860 49430 54230 97000 45120 27650 50900 67900 70050 20200 63280 14250 74120 27430 23460 24460 88460 36840 27410 39030 33210 10980 13180 92130 106400 29020 28880 35860 93890 27920 37040 177900 5488 90680 50060 69310 42400 35290 22290 48540 34150 92520 22490 26190 42270 26750 120900 37760 28580 42790 37490 45150 34590 51810 77280 58230 98020 34100 49570 63730 42810 28740 28380 29560 98420 68210 83250 37720 32850 93780 29440 69740 46670 67490 69270 77370 25770 28000 36200 59650 42020 38930 27760 42160 31030 60380 40870 40820 26290 17200 102000 81190 35420 27780 36100 40670 111700 89140 86670 112000 73160 45320 33530 39430 43780 25020 37610 46270 13680 33350 36810 26970 62830 32070 46650 64800 111500 141000 37210 48570 107000 34420 55530 85040 31450 33060 37290 35900 55210 34280 29170 61150
2022-03-28 65830 72680 18590 29720 38500 33600 52890 52160 22220 79490 46350 40610 41050 64010 24380 67400 120500 85570 23700 63560 54640 37480 57570 61230 124500 78390 333000 33980 54580 46910 20950 24940 91390 20020 126700 40390 166600 46870 36530 98410 25450 40250 91410 160800 37330 104000 32040 31260 35560 31810 63690 50560 64120 40750 68470 32860 44750 101100 34830 47080 29640 45700 92990 12570 58760 59020 34930 49700 121900 113900 32220 33320 29980 39330 166100 18730 61540 6442 25740 21990 25860 148500 22320 172600 106900 15750 39010 119300 48860 35930 38500 26770 24100 82100 18650 60540 103300 99000 33330 104000 40160 49960 114400 45790 25420 39480 40530 34660 47750 35100 33570 27800 36150 99600 39120 63860 31400 42770 13600 47250 93440 42240 26920 35450 39460 56890 33750 29400 41390 116700 38610 32240 22660 24690 65990 38720 221100 40820 25550 35450 29210 86610 44660 26390 86920 47170 24850 60820 29230 80260 31110 49770 78310 31390 32460 28330 37060 86470 49190 35850 28220 61530 96770 35120 42290 91310 53290 28140 27350 42660 14450 37960 70940 42770 33860 41740 85590 57490 133100 57430 107900 44130 263300 116800 28620 92070 32780 31790 52730 169200 72740 54260 19190 18860 187000 35900 90230 15520 31570 18990 69400 21980 26840 48120 55090 45880 50610 31380 93790 26370 19650 25150 42030 46480 37160 101700 39410 103900 43440 66120 46340 26900 30590 49460 41050 33730 132100 50200 21900 65360 73350 20450 32460 76760 100400 42260 105700 43930 19310 76830 4778 49810 25650 29750 42750 71550 83610 67900 25940 49590 54450 97260 45230 27750 51200 68320 70190 20280 63550 14300 74270 27560 23520 24620 88690 36980 27540 39200 33360 11040 13250 92410 106600 29140 29140 36080 94300 28040 37230 178600 5544 91210 50180 69550 42770 35540 22390 48870 34300 93070 22660 26340 42490 26940 121700 38020 28720 43080 37630 45470 34710 51950 77610 58500 98390 34240 49840 63970 42990 28870 28520 29770 98780 68380 83530 37920 33070 94060 29570 70050 46900 67610 69580 77580 25860 28160 36480 59890 42260 39200 27930 42430 31170 60570 41080 41110 26350 17330 102300 81490 35660 27940 36210 40980 112100 89370 86970 112400 73440 45520 33640 39660 44050 25120 37790 46580 13790 33570 36950 27110 63180 32260 46910 65050 111800 142000 37450 48820 107500 34580 55840 85240 31600 33290 37410 36110 55440 34420 29300 61460
2022-03-29 66240 73310 18690 29840 38680 33880 53080 52370 22440 79680 46600 40760 41270 64350 24550 67540 120900 85800 23800 63840 54930 37600 57890 61500 124800 78650 333700 34080 54670 47060 21020 25030 91580 20100 127300 40620 167000 47090 36750 98660 25560 40340 91870 161600 37530 104400 32170 31370 35700 31870 63840 50660 64280 40990 68760 32980 45000 101400 35010 47170 29760 45850 93430 12610 58980 59270 35120 49970 122400 114500 32360 33510 30140 39450 167100 18870 61860 6567 25790 22080 25940 149700 22470 173100 107200 15820 39170 119700 49060 36060 38640 26890 24160 82390 18760 60710 103700 99800 33530 104300 40440 50230 114700 46160 25590 39760 40850 34890 48030 35270 33840 27940 36370 100000 39270 64310 31550 43020 13670 47460 93700 42390 27050 35590 39690 57400 33980 29550 41530 117500 38700 32440 22780 24790 66210 38860 222500 41000 25710 35560 29330 86910 44890 26460 87200 47350 24960 61040 29340 80520 31220 49970 78570 31590 32520 28500 37280 86720 49460 36010 28340 62210 97070 35230 42520 91570 53590 28190 27550 42950 14480 38220 71210 42930 33990 41990 85840 57770 133500 57590 108200 44330 264100 117000 28790 92400 32910 31920 52910 169800 72920 54490 19300 18990 187400 36040 90580 15580 31780 19020 69690 22120 27020 48430 55200 46030 50720 31600 94170 26510 19700 25360 42080 46800 37320 102000 39570 104100 43540 66270 46780 27120 30720 49600 41280 33920 132900 50400 22030 65890 73630 20520 32590 77000 100800 42490 106000 44070 19360 76980 4809 50010 25730 29800 43050 71810 84110 68250 26020 49720 54640 97500 45340 27850 51460 68780 70330 20330 63820 14350 74410 27700 23580 24770 88930 37120 27670 39360 33500 11090 13320 92590 106800 29270 29400 36300 94670 28150 37420 179100 5601 91750 50300 69780 43110 35880 22480 49190 34440 93620 22820 26470 42720 27100 122600 38260 28840 43350 37750 45780 34830 52090 77940 58750 98730 34370 50070 64180 43170 28980 28650 29990 99120 68550 83800 38110 33290 94350 29710 70350 47140 67720 69900 77780 25930 28310 36740 60120 42470 39450 28100 42660 31310 60780 41270 41380 26410 17470 102600 81760 35860 28100 36310 41280 112400 89590 87260 112800 73720 45730 33750 39900 44310 25220 37970 46880 13900 33850 37090 27240 63610 32450 47180 65290 112000 143000 37670 49050 107900 34730 56140 85460 31730 33490 37490 36320 55670 34550 29440 61720
2022-03-30 66650 73840 18800 29970 38850 34170 53260 52570 22630 79860 46860 40920 41510 64690 24730 67680 121300 86020 23900 64100 55230 37730 58210 61770 125200 78900 334400 34180 54760 47210 21090 25110 91760 20190 127900 40830 167300 47320 36990 98910 25680 40410 92310 162400 37750 104900 32310 31480 35840 31940 64000 50760 64450 41240 69020 33100 45260 101600 35190 47280 29890 46010 93910 12650 59190 59550 35320 50230 123000 115000 32520 33690 30280 39570 168200 19030 62180 6695 25830 22160 26010 150900 22620 173700 107500 15890 39340 120100 49270 36170 38780 27010 24220 82680 18860 60880 104000 100500 33740 104500 40760 50480 115100 46600 25760 40050 41110 35120 48310 35430 34160 28090 36580 100400 39410 64770 31710 43280 13740 47700 93930 42540 27160 35730 39920 57900 34230 29700 41680 118200 38800 32620 22920 24880 66420 39000 223800 41190 25870 35670 29450 87210 45120 26540 87500 47520 25060 61260 29460 80780 31340 50210 78830 31780 32590 28660 37490 87000 49730 36150 28460 62900 97350 35350 42770 91810 53900 28240 27740 43230 14520 38470 71480 43090 34130 42240 86080 58040 133900 57750 108600 44530 264900 117300 28950 92740 33040 32050 53090 170300 73090 54740 19450 19110 187800 36190 90940 15650 32000 19060 69980 22250 27220 48740 55310 46170 50820 31840 94560 26650 19750 25580 42140 47110 37480 102300 39730 104300 43640 66430 47220 27340 30850 49750 41530 34100 133800 50610 22170 66420 73880 20590 32710 77240 101300 42720 106200 44210 19410 77120 4842 50210 25810 29850 43360 72050 84610 68580 26090 49860 54840 97730 45440 27950 51710 69270 70470 20380 64080 14400 74550 27820 23630 24910 89180 37270 27790 39510 33650 11140 13390 92790 107000 29390 29660 36520 95060 28260 37590 179700 5656 92250 50420 70010 43460 36230 22570 49510 34580 94190 22990 26610 42940 27270 123500 38510 28980 43620 37880 46100 34950 52220 78280 59030 99050 34500 50330 64400 43340 29090 28790 30240 99460 68720 84050 38310 33510 94630 29850 70650 47370 67830 70220 77970 26010 28460 36990 60350 42700 39710 28270 42910 31440 61000 41470 41640 26470 17600 102900 82050 36050 28250 36390 41590 112600 89800 87530 113200 74010 45940 33850 40130 44560 25320 38130 47190 14010 34090 37230 27370 64060 32650 47460 65530 112300 143900 37910 49290 108400 34880 56430 85680 31860 33710 37570 36530 55900 34680 29570 62010

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.