COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-03-28 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-03-28

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-03-28

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-03-172022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-03-222022-03-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-142022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-302022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-162022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 1126 1275 1525 804 437 780 1774 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 3477 4581 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 2285 1199 3307 17521 1550 3317 2250 319 962 4696 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 508 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 1302 2002 2935 611 2895 1143 2214 1302 1418 1131 1362 117 1222 456 3005 192 2422 2091 1033 1466 3801 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7754 684 1939 124 57 774 995 3960 513 7900 4326 551 1426 5019 1559 1550 1634 862 267 3466 481 896 4767 2335 1159 4687 2036 1878 4677 1747 663 1048 1254 885 1468 1093 1560 891 1505 3182 1563 1625 976 1274 417 1353 3625 1652 982 1189 1007 2291 930 917 560 6120 482 1022 779 884 2871 1519 6944 1464 847 1510 1137 3360 1261 75 3318 2105 817 2104 1115 3254 1188 1498 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 1707 1188 1044 2486 3914 1327 1158 3872 1474 1689 886 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 3609 2021 6117 3336 4514 1732 11029 6320 803 3519 1176 1238 694 9205 3848 1963 580 540 10177 1515 3625 516 696 246 2554 503 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1347 3381 825 73 1495 532 1263 1329 4887 1519 5335 518 1141 1531 659 963 1941 1111 1060 3559 1824 525 1868 2931 835 1179 2965 3811 1403 5264 1790 839 4269 264 1562 87 1808 2223 3085 2613 2589 315 2466 2199 4529 2322 1065 1632 1804 1026 776 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 4307 1311 892 1297 1206 259 344 4748 5886 951 1365 1073 4438 857 1175 8405 632 3240 2347 2862 1130 1408 768 1599 1218 2982 587 863 1470 763 4031 1059 875 1101 1609 1007 1377 2510 3022 2379 4073 1253 1583 3012 1783 1077 992 1278 3842 3631 3812 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 116 2290 3757 968 844 990 2555 1394 1055 812 1551 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 110 1143 5038 4407 3811 4283 2987 1563 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 808 1620 922 2543 862 1416 1659 5841 3883 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 4157 1188 796 397 1077 2155 1437 1060 2087
Days since peak 50 50 63 63 63 50 63 91 50 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 90 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 90 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 90 63 63 63 63 63 90 63 11 63 89 63 89 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 50 50 63 6 13 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 89 63 63 89 63 63 63 63 50 50 63 50 63 63 50 63 63 63 50 63 50 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 50 63 63 89 50 90 63 63 63 63 63 34 63 63 63 63 63 63 14 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 50 63 63 63 63 63 63 50 63 90 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 91 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 50 63 63 7 50 89 63 63 63 63 63 91 63 50 63 63 63 63 63 34 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 50 63 7 63 50 63 63 63 88 63 63 63 63 63 63 34 91 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 50 63 63 63 63 63 50 63 63 63 63 50 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 50 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 50 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 12 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 89 63 63 63 63 63 7 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 34 63 63 50 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 90 63 63 63 63 63
Last total 65529 72152 18491 29744 38488 33322 52681 51988 22087 79195 46144 40704 40853 63786 24299 67396 120646 85752 23687 63493 54547 37553 57267 61192 123967 78368 333632 33997 54602 47072 20863 25003 91447 19954 126615 40322 166857 46749 36411 98537 25439 40275 91182 160195 37197 103866 32011 31236 35646 31807 63669 50580 64209 40708 68493 32885 44553 101202 34570 47189 29546 45483 92853 12549 58819 58837 34896 49637 121993 113922 32164 33198 29999 39370 165762 18523 61522 6285 25814 21989 25878 147156 22213 172918 106976 15786 38910 119289 48818 35982 38553 26680 24148 82133 18653 60378 103477 98431 33228 104065 40061 49871 114572 45315 25289 39347 40188 34608 47569 35177 33276 27686 36014 99554 39106 63669 31300 42736 13596 47124 93530 42201 26881 35533 39372 56537 33628 29382 41152 116714 38552 32138 22569 24674 66148 38871 220617 40752 25393 35450 29226 86641 44477 26452 86972 47199 24925 60813 29198 80196 31020 49817 78294 31212 32546 28174 36927 86410 49146 35825 28179 60723 96841 35166 42108 91344 53213 28117 27150 42479 14501 37812 70939 42798 33699 41527 85788 57315 133193 57514 107776 44155 263366 116898 28566 91974 32871 31769 52458 169337 72809 54217 18994 18849 187096 36017 90118 15505 31289 19034 69329 21951 26652 47829 54974 45739 50674 31255 93683 26169 19625 24860 42037 46357 37171 101812 39405 104093 43450 65884 46041 26677 30605 49667 40877 33714 131337 50234 21862 64942 73552 20449 32553 76629 100665 42278 105952 43998 19337 76820 4720 49758 25635 29789 42515 71452 83461 67787 25902 49474 54500 97318 45278 27808 50996 67891 70207 20299 63415 14355 74373 27547 23497 24439 88954 36976 27519 39220 33378 11029 13246 92550 106805 29219 29038 35884 94132 28164 37097 178564 5474 90878 50230 69692 42417 35365 22355 48709 34416 92525 22583 26352 42498 26833 120837 37929 28638 43007 37606 45145 34712 52123 77560 58485 98360 34213 49720 64135 43073 28904 28455 29536 98778 68540 83628 37971 32790 94377 29532 69972 46767 67690 69523 77585 25899 28060 36355 60002 42198 39113 27737 42307 31090 60490 40895 40849 26410 17249 102502 81515 35540 27796 36236 40780 112375 89535 86970 112199 73459 45495 33598 39487 43867 25057 37747 46491 13690 33377 36938 27125 63108 32178 46929 65082 111913 141228 37406 48756 107412 34523 55730 85467 31710 33155 37378 36046 55396 34455 29256 61387
Last daily increment 348 467 82 148 184 159 154 181 185 133 217 198 182 289 128 131 426 316 107 191 269 171 248 287 314 261 841 138 116 174 17 124 220 58 545 181 514 185 194 252 87 26 343 540 199 376 140 106 179 82 191 42 231 235 285 151 192 36 153 42 99 116 416 11 244 199 174 253 663 506 144 165 158 154 933 114 301 94 20 102 103 950 155 764 364 101 137 352 182 133 130 100 23 306 114 146 421 555 198 346 268 205 324 282 130 235 188 228 203 198 206 136 163 470 168 373 120 222 67 185 250 124 96 151 212 319 197 150 116 701 37 179 118 97 296 165 1018 165 149 108 135 266 160 37 310 217 145 200 126 211 103 263 225 162 111 114 167 231 283 145 118 477 294 165 208 256 306 58 159 198 9 206 254 156 150 228 345 210 504 176 333 204 930 293 146 299 139 133 151 525 185 238 69 132 419 153 352 67 168 13 255 136 137 204 87 158 155 184 393 113 30 173 25 290 176 422 155 254 42 136 308 161 135 233 197 211 604 215 126 301 357 76 144 211 563 209 296 155 73 162 29 184 21 78 232 248 492 301 19 136 212 237 151 136 207 378 77 66 235 73 170 108 60 106 368 130 99 166 155 73 71 291 246 147 198 199 345 150 149 577 38 455 111 261 260 276 75 270 189 427 127 138 233 147 611 240 116 253 144 293 140 203 308 210 340 116 204 247 214 123 117 175 333 266 348 225 157 468 114 254 227 45 307 217 95 122 244 283 191 237 125 224 118 182 160 208 34 141 331 273 204 102 28 226 437 277 253 361 335 240 85 189 226 95 117 245 94 152 119 138 364 193 281 233 314 827 198 211 431 157 265 271 150 141 42 188 223 153 126 281
Last week 1937 2518 467 766 1003 969 892 1100 867 805 1168 980 986 1626 756 702 2267 1501 547 1284 1602 783 1648 1435 1769 1370 4508 652 571 987 295 572 1145 381 3526 1056 2357 1099 1018 1380 546 374 1908 3671 1047 2091 758 533 925 382 871 534 1171 1299 1478 752 1181 1176 835 521 537 736 2304 171 1295 1278 1146 1464 3162 2707 804 905 828 750 5154 530 1542 566 273 487 423 5591 770 3527 1842 434 799 1999 1051 733 757 536 322 1682 556 853 2075 3523 982 1765 1478 1172 1809 1413 796 1358 1104 1182 1215 1003 1101 700 925 2455 889 2142 713 1274 398 1081 1447 741 548 898 1165 1912 1159 800 689 3883 454 887 600 572 1361 910 5585 920 791 611 649 1544 1083 350 1436 1010 717 1041 680 1313 527 1298 1345 928 479 599 1010 1321 1573 780 621 2584 1536 785 1072 1322 1580 292 893 1288 218 1239 1446 777 650 1167 1590 1278 2464 1000 1861 1134 4711 1356 776 1658 778 701 802 2884 971 1220 452 671 2472 856 1774 342 993 223 1346 796 840 1307 532 769 747 1016 2154 589 260 960 340 1532 884 1947 903 1299 478 728 1603 1082 770 998 1162 1007 3463 1243 761 2127 1798 402 783 1146 2603 1190 1625 858 330 811 147 1158 330 340 1432 1241 2831 1619 354 671 1051 1289 739 647 1164 2083 741 356 1316 356 867 653 283 573 1631 790 642 921 798 290 417 1413 1298 778 1207 1041 1887 747 840 2944 279 2672 652 1419 1526 1427 445 1525 889 2539 868 744 1180 816 3403 1189 702 1351 699 1584 735 973 1739 1284 1798 670 1222 1255 1138 754 639 874 1901 1182 1692 1165 1059 1940 696 1409 1128 585 1814 1141 530 631 1320 1432 1172 1254 820 1214 631 901 841 1262 348 690 1659 1562 896 611 463 1413 2143 1464 1436 2088 1575 1238 498 1026 1161 449 861 1492 565 926 714 716 1994 1001 1428 1236 1703 4738 1154 1205 2496 760 1499 1464 831 878 437 1091 1230 737 685 1513
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2021-07-162021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192021-10-102021-08-052021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-12-292021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-152021-12-282021-12-282021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-05 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-06 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-142021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-12-282021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-14 --2021-07-152021-07-162021-07-15 --2021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 -- -- --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-12-272021-09-29 --2021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-292021-12-28 --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142021-07-13 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-10-182021-07-152021-06-29 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-14 --2021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- -- --2021-07-142021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 260 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 177 72 159 115 528 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 33 403 114 708 607 376 53 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 269 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 67 56 82 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 323 229 84 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 301 117 707 51 213 80 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 72 101 274 115 49 189 31 184 116 384 105 164 123 94 256 1294 176 291 228 77 96 322 87 264 158 255 143 291 118 343 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 116 70 253 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 303 200 152 243 70 131 87 77 91 243 339 240 201 428 57 145 101 890 329 219 85 143 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 422 79 352 157 313 195 144 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 99 63 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 59 18 128 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 73 35 58 22 52 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 8 28 25 227 190 143 16 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 128 56 26 58 49 49 57 36 30 35 6 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 199 29 19 32 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 16 57 27 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 74 44 295 20 66 35 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 20 36 58 32 24 18 2 75 54 120 38 54 61 39 68 157 83 115 88 22 40 111 42 112 50 87 51 25 19 108 49 51 68 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 17 56 25 104 38 28 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 22 58 34 40 149 59 28 35 35 42 55 94 56 65 34 49 36 27 38 118 78 85 62 96 24 64 24 55 103 85 30 34 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 40 36 172 70 94 86 69 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 28 31 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-03-29 to 2022-04-04

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-03-28 65529 72152 18491 29744 38488 33322 52681 51988 22087 79195 46144 40704 40853 63786 24299 67396 120646 85752 23687 63493 54547 37553 57267 61192 123967 78368 333632 33997 54602 47072 20863 25003 91447 19954 126615 40322 166857 46749 36411 98537 25439 40275 91182 160195 37197 103866 32011 31236 35646 31807 63669 50580 64209 40708 68493 32885 44553 101202 34570 47189 29546 45483 92853 12549 58819 58837 34896 49637 121993 113922 32164 33198 29999 39370 165762 18523 61522 6285 25814 21989 25878 147156 22213 172918 106976 15786 38910 119289 48818 35982 38553 26680 24148 82133 18653 60378 103477 98431 33228 104065 40061 49871 114572 45315 25289 39347 40188 34608 47569 35177 33276 27686 36014 99554 39106 63669 31300 42736 13596 47124 93530 42201 26881 35533 39372 56537 33628 29382 41152 116714 38552 32138 22569 24674 66148 38871 220617 40752 25393 35450 29226 86641 44477 26452 86972 47199 24925 60813 29198 80196 31020 49817 78294 31212 32546 28174 36927 86410 49146 35825 28179 60723 96841 35166 42108 91344 53213 28117 27150 42479 14501 37812 70939 42798 33699 41527 85788 57315 133193 57514 107776 44155 263366 116898 28566 91974 32871 31769 52458 169337 72809 54217 18994 18849 187096 36017 90118 15505 31289 19034 69329 21951 26652 47829 54974 45739 50674 31255 93683 26169 19625 24860 42037 46357 37171 101812 39405 104093 43450 65884 46041 26677 30605 49667 40877 33714 131337 50234 21862 64942 73552 20449 32553 76629 100665 42278 105952 43998 19337 76820 4720 49758 25635 29789 42515 71452 83461 67787 25902 49474 54500 97318 45278 27808 50996 67891 70207 20299 63415 14355 74373 27547 23497 24439 88954 36976 27519 39220 33378 11029 13246 92550 106805 29219 29038 35884 94132 28164 37097 178564 5474 90878 50230 69692 42417 35365 22355 48709 34416 92525 22583 26352 42498 26833 120837 37929 28638 43007 37606 45145 34712 52123 77560 58485 98360 34213 49720 64135 43073 28904 28455 29536 98778 68540 83628 37971 32790 94377 29532 69972 46767 67690 69523 77585 25899 28060 36355 60002 42198 39113 27737 42307 31090 60490 40895 40849 26410 17249 102502 81515 35540 27796 36236 40780 112375 89535 86970 112199 73459 45495 33598 39487 43867 25057 37747 46491 13690 33377 36938 27125 63108 32178 46929 65082 111913 141228 37406 48756 107412 34523 55730 85467 31710 33155 37378 36046 55396 34455 29256 61387
2022-03-29 66060 72560 18580 29870 38650 33560 52810 52180 22370 79350 46370 40880 41040 64060 24580 67510 121000 85990 23770 63940 54820 37680 57520 61430 124300 78610 334300 34120 54700 47220 20920 25090 91680 20060 127100 40500 167200 46940 36580 98680 25550 40300 91750 160900 37380 104400 32100 31350 35790 31870 63840 50620 64410 40920 68680 33010 44770 101300 34730 47280 29680 45580 93250 12620 59040 59150 35080 49880 122600 114400 32380 33360 30140 39520 167300 18760 61800 6439 25860 22070 25950 148400 22360 173400 107300 15840 39050 119700 49010 36090 38670 26780 24210 82420 18800 60530 103800 99600 33400 104300 40430 50090 114800 45970 25430 39560 40670 34950 47960 35350 33500 27830 36340 100100 39270 64050 31420 42970 13660 47320 93810 42310 26980 35670 39570 57210 33840 29490 41280 117400 38660 32370 22680 24780 66300 38980 222400 40920 25530 35550 29350 87000 44650 26560 87250 47380 25030 61040 29310 80460 31130 50060 78520 31380 32640 28410 37100 86670 49400 35940 28290 61770 97130 35300 42310 91560 53520 28170 27450 42890 14510 37980 71180 43020 33820 41740 86100 57550 133600 57690 108200 44310 264200 117100 28710 92340 33010 31880 52650 169800 72930 54430 19170 18980 187700 36160 90660 15560 31680 19060 69660 22140 26800 48080 55080 45880 50800 31560 94070 26270 19700 25050 42090 46730 37400 102200 39600 104300 43490 66030 46720 26880 30740 49830 41160 33910 132600 50430 21970 65540 73830 20540 32670 76880 101000 42470 106200 44110 19390 77000 4745 49950 25700 29850 42780 71700 83940 68080 25960 49630 54600 97500 45410 27920 51340 68590 70340 20350 63640 14390 74510 27660 23590 24550 89190 37130 27630 39370 33510 11070 13310 92780 107000 29350 29250 36070 94450 28290 37250 179600 5521 91410 50400 69930 42870 35760 22430 48970 34540 93460 22740 26490 42700 27040 122200 38130 28740 43230 37720 45640 34830 52270 77870 58780 98800 34350 49940 64370 43260 29010 28570 29870 99100 68750 83900 38150 33200 94680 29670 70330 46970 67790 69830 77790 25980 28330 36780 60220 42430 39380 27890 42520 31220 60710 41200 41260 26470 17380 102800 81730 35740 27980 36350 41030 112800 89810 87240 112600 73790 45710 33700 39680 44120 25160 37920 46750 13860 33790 37070 27240 63480 32370 47140 65340 112200 142200 37600 49010 107800 34650 55980 85670 31720 33430 37470 36310 55610 34580 29380 61660
2022-03-30 66520 73050 18700 30000 38840 34000 52960 52460 22590 79620 46650 41040 41290 64350 24800 67610 121400 86170 23820 64230 55170 37750 57780 61650 124800 78850 335100 34220 54790 47350 20970 25190 91950 20140 127600 40690 167600 47160 36750 98840 25650 40320 92200 161700 37590 104800 32210 31450 35930 31940 64020 50680 64630 41150 68870 33120 45040 101500 34910 47400 29770 45680 93650 12670 59260 59410 35260 50070 123200 114800 32550 33560 30270 39660 168400 18940 62090 6545 25910 22140 25980 149300 22510 173900 107500 15910 39220 120000 49200 36180 38810 26890 24250 82710 18920 60740 104200 100500 33570 104600 40740 50370 115100 46420 25600 39750 41000 35210 48260 35460 33890 28020 36600 100500 39410 64460 31570 43250 13710 47500 94050 42430 27080 35810 39780 57760 34080 29610 41500 118100 38750 32550 22800 24910 66490 39100 223800 41140 25670 35640 29490 87310 44840 26640 87550 47550 25110 61240 29390 80710 31280 50320 78730 31570 32730 28580 37310 86920 49570 36060 28400 62500 97450 35410 42590 91740 53830 28230 27710 43190 14510 38110 71410 43180 33930 42010 86380 57790 133800 57880 108600 44500 265000 117400 28840 92650 33120 32000 52990 170300 73080 54620 19290 19110 188200 36320 91060 15610 31950 19090 69940 22290 27000 48420 55210 46080 50920 31800 94480 26410 19760 25330 42150 47020 37590 102500 39770 104400 43520 66250 47170 27170 30880 49940 41380 34100 133500 50570 22070 65960 74010 20640 32770 77110 101400 42660 106400 44200 19410 77150 4781 50150 25780 29890 43170 71920 84480 68410 26020 49770 54690 97690 45510 28010 51580 69070 70480 20360 63900 14450 74650 27780 23650 24730 89430 37280 27750 39500 33620 11130 13390 93020 107200 29460 29520 36260 94790 28390 37440 180300 5580 92050 50540 70170 43190 36070 22520 49260 34620 94120 22950 26620 42880 27190 123200 38360 28830 43430 37820 46020 34940 52430 78250 59020 99200 34460 50190 64610 43440 29100 28690 30130 99500 68910 84180 38310 33480 94850 29850 70600 47180 67900 70190 77990 26070 28500 37090 60430 42740 39590 28080 42720 31310 60850 41430 41530 26560 17530 103100 81960 35890 28130 36450 41310 113200 90100 87510 113000 74070 45930 33800 39890 44310 25250 38080 47020 13990 34070 37190 27340 63950 32580 47360 65580 112400 143500 37800 49240 108300 34780 56190 85810 31780 33640 37550 36530 55860 34680 29470 61980
2022-03-31 66910 73490 18810 30120 39010 34340 53090 52700 22780 79840 46900 41210 41510 64620 24960 67720 121700 86370 23880 64510 55480 37840 58020 61860 125200 79070 335800 34320 54880 47480 21030 25270 92190 20210 128100 40870 167900 47370 36920 99010 25750 40350 92560 162500 37780 105100 32290 31540 36070 32010 64200 50720 64820 41350 69060 33240 45280 101600 35080 47500 29850 45780 94040 12710 59470 59630 35440 50280 123800 115200 32690 33740 30400 39800 169500 19080 62360 6652 25960 22210 26030 150100 22660 174400 107800 15980 39370 120400 49380 36270 38920 27000 24300 83000 19020 60920 104500 101200 33740 104800 41010 50600 115300 46780 25760 39950 41240 35470 48490 35600 34200 28180 36800 100900 39560 64860 31700 43510 13770 47660 94280 42540 27180 35940 39980 58200 34300 29720 41670 118800 38830 32690 22910 25030 66650 39230 224800 41340 25800 35740 29620 87590 45030 26710 87840 47710 25210 61400 29490 80930 31410 50540 78940 31750 32810 28720 37500 87150 49770 36170 28520 63090 97740 35530 42830 91940 54080 28290 27870 43450 14520 38240 71620 43330 34040 42250 86640 57990 134100 58060 108900 44670 265700 117600 28980 92910 33250 32110 53250 170700 73210 54820 19380 19220 188700 36450 91380 15670 32170 19120 70160 22430 27170 48720 55330 46240 51040 32000 94810 26520 19800 25570 42200 47270 37760 102800 39920 104500 43550 66440 47540 27420 31020 50080 41570 34240 134300 50740 22170 66310 74230 20740 32880 77300 101700 42840 106600 44300 19440 77290 4810 50320 25860 29940 43500 72110 84990 68710 26080 49880 54810 97870 45620 28110 51800 69520 70620 20390 64140 14500 74790 27890 23700 24880 89680 37410 27860 39640 33740 11180 13450 93230 107400 29570 29770 36440 95120 28490 37610 180900 5633 92640 50670 70410 43450 36340 22600 49530 34720 94640 23120 26750 43060 27330 124000 38570 28930 43640 37930 46310 35050 52560 78590 59240 99500 34570 50420 64840 43620 29200 28810 30340 99800 69090 84430 38470 33720 95080 30010 70860 47380 68000 70520 78190 26160 28650 37360 60640 43000 39770 28260 42920 31410 61000 41610 41780 26630 17670 103300 82160 36030 28250 36520 41580 113600 90380 87720 113300 74320 46150 33900 40090 44480 25330 38230 47290 14090 34280 37310 27450 64360 32780 47560 65780 112600 144600 37990 49450 108700 34900 56420 85970 31870 33810 37610 36700 56090 34790 29570 62280
2022-04-01 67200 73920 18900 30240 39180 34610 53220 52910 22930 80030 47130 41370 41710 64890 25090 67820 122000 86580 23950 64740 55770 37950 58270 62080 125600 79250 336400 34430 54980 47620 21080 25360 92420 20270 128600 41050 168200 47570 37080 99170 25830 40370 92870 163200 37960 105500 32380 31620 36200 32070 64360 50770 64980 41510 69230 33350 45500 101700 35230 47600 29910 45870 94420 12740 59660 59840 35610 50500 124300 115600 32840 33900 30530 39910 170200 19170 62630 6750 26010 22280 26090 150800 22790 174800 108100 16030 39520 120700 49520 36370 39030 27100 24370 83280 19110 61090 104800 101800 33900 105100 41220 50820 115600 47040 25900 40150 41450 35670 48670 35740 34460 28330 36960 101300 39700 65230 31820 43740 13830 47800 94490 42650 27280 36070 40170 58530 34510 29820 41830 119500 38910 32830 23010 25130 66850 39370 225700 41520 25930 35830 29750 87820 45210 26770 88110 47870 25300 61530 29590 81110 31520 50740 79150 31920 32890 28820 37680 87340 49990 36290 28620 63540 98030 35640 43050 92130 54310 28340 28010 43650 14530 38340 71820 43460 34150 42460 86890 58170 134400 58230 109300 44820 266400 117800 29110 93140 33370 32220 53480 171200 73350 55020 19470 19310 189100 36590 91720 15720 32380 19150 70380 22570 27330 48990 55430 46390 51160 32150 95160 26630 19870 25780 42260 47490 37910 103200 40060 104700 43590 66600 47820 27640 31150 50210 41740 34400 134900 50920 22280 66620 74460 20820 32990 77490 102000 43030 106900 44410 19480 77430 4836 50510 25920 29990 43800 72310 85460 69000 26140 49980 54920 98010 45730 28210 52000 69830 70750 20430 64360 14540 74910 28010 23740 25000 89900 37530 27970 39780 33860 11220 13520 93430 107600 29690 29990 36620 95430 28600 37770 181400 5682 93170 50780 70640 43710 36550 22680 49790 34830 95080 23290 26860 43240 27440 124600 38770 29030 43850 38030 46550 35160 52700 78920 59420 99800 34670 50640 65060 43790 29300 28920 30480 100100 69270 84660 38640 33920 95320 30160 71060 47570 68090 70830 78380 26220 28780 37580 60830 43240 39970 28420 43120 31480 61140 41770 42000 26700 17800 103600 82340 36180 28340 36610 41830 113900 90640 87930 113600 74530 46350 34000 40280 44660 25410 38350 47540 14190 34450 37410 27550 64740 32960 47770 65980 112900 145600 38180 49650 109200 35020 56650 86150 31940 33970 37680 36860 56310 34900 29680 62560
2022-04-02 67440 74330 19000 30360 39340 34880 53350 53110 23040 80220 47360 41530 41910 65160 25230 67910 122300 86800 24020 64930 56050 38050 58520 62300 126000 79430 337000 34540 55070 47750 21140 25420 92640 20320 129100 41230 168500 47760 37240 99290 25900 40400 93140 163900 38140 105800 32440 31690 36340 32140 64520 50820 65120 41670 69390 33470 45720 101700 35390 47700 29960 45960 94810 12760 59800 60040 35790 50720 124700 116000 32960 34070 30670 40020 170800 19260 62900 6813 26060 22360 26150 151500 22930 175300 108300 16070 39660 120900 49660 36470 39120 27200 24410 83560 19180 61250 105100 102300 34070 105400 41410 51030 115800 47270 26050 40360 41620 35850 48850 35890 34720 28480 37090 101600 39850 65600 31940 43970 13880 47920 94680 42740 27370 36210 40370 58800 34710 29900 41970 120200 38990 32940 23120 25240 67010 39480 226400 41690 26060 35930 29870 88000 45390 26820 88370 48030 25400 61650 29680 81280 31630 50900 79360 32090 32980 28910 37860 87490 50210 36400 28730 63900 98310 35760 43270 92330 54530 28390 28130 43790 14540 38470 72010 43580 34260 42680 87090 58340 134800 58400 109500 44960 267000 118000 29240 93390 33470 32330 53700 171500 73470 55210 19540 19390 189500 36690 91990 15780 32550 19180 70560 22660 27490 49250 55530 46530 51280 32280 95360 26730 19890 25980 42310 47700 38020 103500 40180 104800 43630 66760 48060 27850 31280 50360 41900 34530 135300 51090 22380 66870 74700 20900 33100 77640 102400 43220 107000 44510 19520 77510 4860 50650 25990 30030 44080 72470 85940 69300 26200 50070 55010 98140 45840 28310 52170 70100 70890 20470 64590 14580 75030 28120 23780 25130 90110 37650 28080 39920 33990 11260 13590 93610 107800 29810 30200 36800 95740 28710 37930 181900 5730 93690 50880 70870 43950 36750 22750 50050 34940 95530 23450 26950 43430 27540 125100 38970 29140 44060 38140 46760 35270 52820 79230 59590 100000 34770 50860 65280 43970 29410 29030 30600 100300 69450 84820 38810 34100 95570 30310 71250 47760 68180 71140 78570 26290 28910 37800 61000 43480 40120 28580 43320 31570 61270 41900 42180 26770 17920 103800 82490 36310 28440 36690 42080 114300 90900 88120 113800 74760 46550 34090 40470 44810 25480 38480 47790 14260 34590 37490 27660 65110 33140 47950 66180 113100 146700 38370 49820 109600 35150 56880 86330 32020 34120 37760 37010 56520 35010 29770 62830
2022-04-03 67690 74740 19090 30490 39500 35120 53470 53310 23130 80400 47580 41690 42100 65430 25360 68040 122700 87020 24090 65160 56330 38170 58760 62530 126300 79630 337600 34650 55160 47890 21190 25510 92860 20380 129600 41410 168800 47950 37400 99430 25980 40430 93390 164500 38310 106100 32540 31770 36480 32200 64680 50860 65300 41870 69540 33590 45940 101800 35540 47790 30020 46050 95190 12780 59970 60210 35970 50940 125100 116500 33100 34230 30800 40130 171500 19330 63160 6904 26100 22430 26210 152100 23070 175800 108600 16140 39800 121200 49810 36580 39230 27290 24440 83830 19250 61410 105500 102800 34230 105600 41600 51230 116000 47460 26190 40560 41780 36030 49030 36040 34950 28620 37220 101900 40000 65970 32060 44200 13940 48060 94890 42840 27470 36340 40560 59060 34920 29990 42110 120800 39040 33070 23230 25340 67180 39610 227100 41870 26190 36030 29980 88210 45560 26850 88640 48200 25500 61770 29790 81470 31740 51060 79570 32260 33060 28980 38040 87670 50450 36520 28840 64240 98590 35870 43470 92530 54770 28440 28240 43970 14550 38540 72220 43690 34370 42890 87340 58490 135100 58570 109800 45120 267700 118100 29370 93600 33590 32440 53900 172000 73610 55410 19610 19490 189900 36800 92320 15830 32730 19200 70740 22760 27640 49500 55630 46670 51400 32420 95660 26830 19910 26170 42370 47910 38160 103800 40300 105000 43670 66910 48280 28050 31400 50500 42080 34670 135800 51280 22490 67140 74950 20980 33220 77820 102700 43400 107300 44620 19570 77640 4883 50800 26050 30090 44350 72670 86410 69580 26250 50160 55130 98290 45960 28410 52350 70390 71020 20520 64810 14630 75160 28230 23830 25240 90360 37750 28190 40070 34110 11300 13650 93820 107900 29930 30410 36980 96050 28820 38080 182400 5777 94200 50990 71100 44170 36950 22830 50300 35060 95990 23600 27070 43620 27640 125600 39170 29240 44270 38250 47010 35390 52980 79540 59780 100300 34870 51080 65500 44150 29510 29140 30730 100600 69640 85090 38980 34290 95840 30450 71470 47960 68240 71450 78760 26370 29020 38010 61210 43710 40310 28730 43520 31660 61410 42050 42360 26830 18040 104100 82680 36420 28530 36730 42330 114700 91160 88330 114100 75010 46760 34180 40660 44960 25550 38620 48040 14340 34700 37600 27770 65460 33320 48160 66360 113400 147600 38560 50000 110000 35270 57120 86520 32100 34230 37810 37160 56730 35120 29880 63100
2022-04-04 68080 75140 19180 30610 39660 35350 53590 53500 23320 80580 47790 41850 42290 65690 25480 68180 123100 87250 24170 65360 56600 38280 59010 62750 126600 79880 338400 34750 55250 48030 21240 25620 93070 20450 130100 41580 169300 48140 37560 99660 26070 40460 93770 165200 38490 106500 32680 31880 36620 32260 64830 50910 65500 42100 69820 33710 46150 101900 35690 47890 30130 46140 95580 12810 60200 60430 36150 51170 125800 116900 33220 34390 30940 40260 172500 19450 63430 7006 26150 22510 26280 153100 23200 176400 108900 16230 39940 121600 49990 36680 39360 27390 24480 84110 19360 61560 105800 103500 34390 105900 41870 51440 116300 47780 26320 40770 41990 36230 49260 36200 35180 28760 37400 102400 40150 66330 32170 44420 14000 48250 95140 42960 27560 36470 40760 59410 35120 30140 42240 121500 39090 33250 23340 25450 67440 39760 228200 42040 26320 36130 30100 88490 45740 26900 88900 48360 25600 61970 29890 81690 31840 51300 79780 32430 33140 29110 38210 87900 50680 36640 28940 64740 98860 35990 43670 92740 55080 28490 28400 44200 14570 38810 72470 43840 34490 43090 87650 58730 135400 58740 110100 45310 268600 118400 29500 93900 33720 32550 54090 172500 73770 55610 19690 19620 190200 36940 92660 15880 32880 19230 71020 22900 27790 49750 55730 46800 51520 32610 96040 26930 19950 26360 42420 48200 38320 104200 40460 105200 43710 67050 48590 28250 31530 50650 42280 34870 136400 51470 22600 67510 75200 21060 33330 78050 103200 43590 107500 44730 19620 77810 4905 51000 26120 30140 44610 72910 86870 69870 26310 50300 55340 98520 46080 28510 52580 70780 71150 20570 65030 14700 75330 28340 23880 25360 90680 37870 28300 40210 34240 11360 13720 94080 108200 30050 30620 37160 96350 28940 38240 182900 5824 94700 51100 71320 44450 37200 22910 50560 35180 96400 23760 27200 43810 27800 126300 39370 29350 44480 38360 47310 35500 53160 79850 60000 100600 34990 51290 65720 44330 29620 29250 30920 100900 69830 85420 39150 34440 96110 30580 71730 48150 68310 71750 78950 26460 29130 38230 61480 43930 40540 28880 43730 31780 61590 42220 42590 26890 18160 104400 82960 36610 28650 36790 42580 115000 91420 88580 114500 75300 46960 34270 40840 45200 25650 38750 48290 14430 34880 37730 27880 65820 33500 48420 66560 113600 148600 38750 50200 110400 35400 57360 86710 32260 34390 37870 37360 56930 35240 30000 63360

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-03-29 to 2022-04-04

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-03-28 65529 72152 18491 29744 38488 33322 52681 51988 22087 79195 46144 40704 40853 63786 24299 67396 120646 85752 23687 63493 54547 37553 57267 61192 123967 78368 333632 33997 54602 47072 20863 25003 91447 19954 126615 40322 166857 46749 36411 98537 25439 40275 91182 160195 37197 103866 32011 31236 35646 31807 63669 50580 64209 40708 68493 32885 44553 101202 34570 47189 29546 45483 92853 12549 58819 58837 34896 49637 121993 113922 32164 33198 29999 39370 165762 18523 61522 6285 25814 21989 25878 147156 22213 172918 106976 15786 38910 119289 48818 35982 38553 26680 24148 82133 18653 60378 103477 98431 33228 104065 40061 49871 114572 45315 25289 39347 40188 34608 47569 35177 33276 27686 36014 99554 39106 63669 31300 42736 13596 47124 93530 42201 26881 35533 39372 56537 33628 29382 41152 116714 38552 32138 22569 24674 66148 38871 220617 40752 25393 35450 29226 86641 44477 26452 86972 47199 24925 60813 29198 80196 31020 49817 78294 31212 32546 28174 36927 86410 49146 35825 28179 60723 96841 35166 42108 91344 53213 28117 27150 42479 14501 37812 70939 42798 33699 41527 85788 57315 133193 57514 107776 44155 263366 116898 28566 91974 32871 31769 52458 169337 72809 54217 18994 18849 187096 36017 90118 15505 31289 19034 69329 21951 26652 47829 54974 45739 50674 31255 93683 26169 19625 24860 42037 46357 37171 101812 39405 104093 43450 65884 46041 26677 30605 49667 40877 33714 131337 50234 21862 64942 73552 20449 32553 76629 100665 42278 105952 43998 19337 76820 4720 49758 25635 29789 42515 71452 83461 67787 25902 49474 54500 97318 45278 27808 50996 67891 70207 20299 63415 14355 74373 27547 23497 24439 88954 36976 27519 39220 33378 11029 13246 92550 106805 29219 29038 35884 94132 28164 37097 178564 5474 90878 50230 69692 42417 35365 22355 48709 34416 92525 22583 26352 42498 26833 120837 37929 28638 43007 37606 45145 34712 52123 77560 58485 98360 34213 49720 64135 43073 28904 28455 29536 98778 68540 83628 37971 32790 94377 29532 69972 46767 67690 69523 77585 25899 28060 36355 60002 42198 39113 27737 42307 31090 60490 40895 40849 26410 17249 102502 81515 35540 27796 36236 40780 112375 89535 86970 112199 73459 45495 33598 39487 43867 25057 37747 46491 13690 33377 36938 27125 63108 32178 46929 65082 111913 141228 37406 48756 107412 34523 55730 85467 31710 33155 37378 36046 55396 34455 29256 61387
2022-03-29 65930 72650 18580 29890 38670 33510 52840 52170 22260 79350 46340 40870 41050 64090 24460 67540 121100 86030 23780 63790 54830 37680 57560 61460 124300 78630 334500 34100 54700 47250 20910 25100 91650 20030 127300 40530 167300 46960 36610 98800 25540 40350 91620 160900 37390 104300 32140 31350 35800 31870 63850 50670 64410 40940 68800 33020 44780 101400 34720 47290 29660 45620 93280 12580 59050 59070 35090 49890 122600 114400 32310 33370 30170 39510 166800 18660 61830 6411 25860 22080 25950 148300 22360 173600 107300 15870 39050 119700 49000 36130 38700 26790 24210 82440 18760 60530 103900 99200 33410 104400 40350 50130 114900 45590 25430 39600 40430 34840 47840 35350 33500 27810 36210 100000 39270 64070 31430 42990 13670 47330 93800 42340 26990 35680 39610 56900 33820 29520 41280 117400 38620 32320 22670 24770 66390 39020 221800 40940 25560 35560 29340 86950 44670 26500 87250 47400 25060 61040 29300 80450 31130 50050 78540 31400 32630 28330 37120 86650 49400 35970 28290 61250 97150 35310 42330 91600 53500 28180 27330 42760 14520 38050 71220 42970 33820 41730 86080 57550 133700 57680 108200 44340 264200 117200 28720 92310 33020 31890 52610 169900 72980 54440 19080 18980 187600 36170 90480 15570 31510 19060 69610 22100 26800 48090 55070 45880 50810 31450 94090 26300 19680 25050 42080 46670 37350 102200 39580 104300 43530 66030 46440 26880 30750 49850 41120 33910 132000 50450 21990 65330 73880 20520 32690 76860 101100 42490 106200 44140 19390 76980 4745 49950 25690 29850 42780 71700 83980 68120 25940 49610 54710 97570 45410 27930 51230 68350 70320 20350 63660 14410 74530 27680 23560 24560 89250 37120 27630 39380 33540 11080 13320 92790 107000 29360 29240 36100 94480 28290 37260 179200 5525 91350 50370 69950 42740 35650 22440 49000 34570 93020 22730 26480 42720 26990 121500 38140 28750 43260 37730 45480 34840 52290 77910 58740 98700 34330 49940 64370 43270 29030 28580 29700 99100 68750 83960 38160 33010 94740 29670 70260 46970 67780 69860 77800 25980 28190 36630 60260 42400 39350 27890 42530 31220 60700 41060 41100 26470 17400 102800 81790 35710 27920 36310 41050 112800 89810 87260 112600 73770 45730 33690 39690 44090 25140 37900 46780 13830 33590 37060 27240 63490 32380 47190 65340 112200 142000 37620 48990 107800 34660 56010 85740 31840 33310 37450 36280 55640 34590 29400 61670
2022-03-30 66340 73180 18680 30030 38850 33760 53020 52390 22420 79540 46590 41050 41270 64410 24640 67670 121500 86280 23880 64050 55160 37810 57900 61730 124700 78910 335300 34210 54800 47410 20970 25210 91840 20110 127900 40730 167700 47190 36810 99000 25650 40420 92050 161700 37590 104700 32290 31450 35950 31950 64010 50790 64630 41210 69090 33160 45030 101700 34910 47400 29780 45780 93740 12630 59280 59340 35290 50160 123200 114900 32470 33550 30320 39640 167900 18800 62120 6527 25910 22170 26020 149500 22530 174200 107600 15940 39210 120000 49210 36260 38850 26900 24270 82760 18880 60710 104200 99900 33610 104700 40650 50350 115200 45930 25600 39880 40680 35070 48110 35520 33790 27960 36410 100500 39420 64510 31580 43250 13740 47560 94060 42490 27090 35840 39840 57340 34060 29670 41440 118200 38730 32500 22800 24880 66620 39170 223100 41130 25730 35680 29460 87260 44890 26580 87530 47580 25170 61270 29420 80720 31240 50310 78820 31600 32710 28480 37320 86930 49680 36120 28420 61860 97440 35440 42570 91830 53800 28230 27550 43060 14560 38300 71490 43130 33960 41970 86360 57830 134100 57850 108500 44540 265100 117400 28870 92660 33150 32020 52780 170400 73150 54670 19200 19110 188000 36340 90830 15630 31750 19110 69890 22250 27000 48380 55190 46030 50940 31670 94500 26440 19740 25280 42140 46980 37520 102500 39760 104500 43650 66200 46830 27150 30900 50000 41360 34100 132800 50660 22130 65820 74180 20600 32820 77090 101600 42720 106500 44280 19440 77130 4768 50180 25770 29910 43090 71940 84560 68440 26020 49750 54890 97820 45540 28030 51460 68810 70480 20400 63930 14470 74690 27810 23620 24690 89520 37270 27750 39550 33680 11130 13400 93030 107200 29490 29490 36320 94870 28410 37440 179800 5580 91910 50500 70190 43070 35950 22530 49300 34700 93590 22920 26620 42920 27160 122200 38370 28890 43520 37860 45840 34970 52450 78260 59010 99100 34460 50190 64630 43470 29160 28720 29900 99500 68940 84260 38360 33250 95030 29810 70540 47200 67900 70220 78020 26090 28330 36890 60500 42640 39600 28080 42770 31350 60880 41260 41360 26550 17560 103100 82080 35880 28060 36420 41330 113100 90070 87550 113100 74060 45950 33790 39910 44330 25230 38080 47080 13950 33800 37200 27360 63930 32580 47450 65580 112500 143100 37840 49230 108300 34820 56270 85980 31970 33500 37550 36500 55890 34710 29510 61980
2022-03-31 66720 73660 18780 30160 39030 33970 53180 52590 22590 79720 46830 41200 41470 64690 24770 67800 121900 86530 23980 64300 55450 37930 58210 61980 125000 79140 336000 34310 54900 47550 21030 25290 92040 20180 128500 40920 168100 47380 36990 99300 25740 40500 92420 162400 37790 105100 32400 31540 36100 32020 64150 50900 64850 41430 69340 33280 45250 101900 35080 47500 29890 45920 94150 12670 59500 59580 35490 50400 123700 115300 32620 33710 30460 39780 168900 18930 62400 6642 25960 22250 26090 150500 22690 174700 108000 16010 39370 120400 49390 36380 38970 27000 24330 83050 18980 60870 104600 100600 33770 105000 40940 50580 115500 46240 25750 40110 40900 35290 48320 35680 34040 28090 36590 100900 39570 64900 31720 43460 13810 47750 94320 42630 27190 36000 40040 57730 34280 29810 41590 118800 38820 32650 22910 24980 66810 39310 224200 41300 25880 35780 29580 87550 45090 26650 87790 47740 25280 61450 29530 80960 31350 50530 79070 31780 32780 28610 37500 87180 49950 36260 28530 62390 97700 35570 42790 92070 54060 28290 27700 43310 14600 38530 71740 43280 34080 42190 86620 58060 134500 58030 108900 44730 265900 117600 29010 92950 33280 32140 52930 170900 73320 54880 19290 19220 188500 36470 91110 15690 31960 19150 70120 22400 27160 48660 55300 46180 51060 31850 94870 26570 19800 25490 42200 47240 37670 102800 39910 104800 43740 66360 47160 27390 31030 50150 41560 34250 133500 50870 22270 66240 74440 20670 32940 77290 102000 42910 106800 44430 19490 77270 4789 50380 25830 29960 43380 72150 85070 68750 26090 49880 55060 98050 45660 28140 51680 69260 70640 20450 64180 14530 74840 27920 23660 24810 89790 37410 27860 39700 33810 11180 13470 93250 107400 29620 29720 36510 95180 28530 37600 180400 5629 92420 50610 70440 43340 36210 22610 49570 34840 94080 23090 26750 43130 27300 123000 38580 29010 43740 37980 46150 35090 52590 78590 59240 99400 34580 50410 64860 43660 29280 28830 30090 99800 69130 84540 38550 33470 95320 29940 70800 47400 68010 70570 78210 26180 28450 37130 60740 42860 39800 28250 42990 31460 61050 41420 41620 26620 17700 103400 82350 36030 28170 36500 41600 113500 90320 87780 113500 74310 46160 33890 40110 44530 25310 38230 47350 14070 33980 37330 27480 64290 32760 47680 65790 112800 144000 38040 49450 108800 34940 56520 86210 32100 33660 37620 36690 56110 34830 29630 62230
2022-04-01 67040 74100 18870 30300 39200 34150 53340 52770 22730 79890 47040 41340 41650 64950 24890 67920 122200 86750 24070 64520 55710 38040 58510 62200 125300 79340 336700 34410 54990 47690 21090 25380 92230 20240 129100 41100 168400 47560 37160 99500 25830 40560 92740 163000 37980 105400 32520 31630 36230 32080 64310 51010 65080 41600 69570 33390 45460 102100 35250 47590 29990 46070 94520 12700 59700 59800 35680 50630 124200 115800 32770 33880 30590 39900 169600 19040 62670 6749 26010 22340 26150 151400 22840 175200 108200 16060 39520 120800 49560 36490 39070 27090 24400 83320 19070 61030 104900 101200 33930 105300 41170 50770 115800 46500 25880 40330 41100 35480 48500 35830 34240 28210 36740 101300 39700 65260 31850 43680 13880 47910 94560 42740 27290 36130 40220 58040 34480 29940 41720 119500 38910 32800 23020 25070 67010 39450 225000 41460 26030 35880 29690 87800 45270 26710 88020 47880 25390 61610 29640 81170 31440 50730 79280 31950 32850 28720 37680 87400 50220 36390 28630 62830 97950 35700 43000 92290 54300 28330 27840 43520 14640 38720 71990 43400 34200 42400 86870 58260 134800 58170 109200 44900 266600 117800 29130 93220 33400 32250 53070 171300 73480 55070 19360 19320 188900 36610 91410 15750 32170 19190 70340 22540 27310 48910 55400 46310 51190 32010 95230 26690 19850 25690 42260 47480 37820 103000 40060 104900 43840 66510 47440 27610 31150 50280 41730 34410 134000 51060 22390 66630 74680 20730 33060 77480 102300 43110 107000 44560 19530 77400 4810 50590 25900 30010 43640 72350 85550 69030 26150 49990 55220 98250 45770 28240 51880 69610 70780 20490 64420 14580 74960 28030 23700 24930 90030 37540 27970 39840 33940 11220 13530 93470 107700 29750 29910 36680 95500 28640 37750 180800 5675 92910 50720 70670 43600 36430 22690 49830 34960 94530 23250 26870 43320 27430 123500 38780 29130 43970 38100 46440 35210 52720 78880 59440 99700 34700 50620 64980 43850 29400 28930 30210 100100 69310 84780 38740 33680 95600 30060 71030 47600 68110 70900 78390 26260 28560 37330 60960 43060 40010 28420 43180 31550 61200 41560 41840 26680 17830 103700 82580 36180 28260 36580 41840 113800 90530 88010 113800 74530 46360 33980 40280 44730 25390 38360 47610 14180 34140 37450 27600 64620 32930 47910 65970 113000 144900 38230 49640 109200 35070 56760 86410 32210 33810 37690 36860 56330 34950 29740 62470
2022-04-02 67270 74460 18960 30430 39350 34310 53500 52940 22830 80060 47250 41490 41840 65220 25020 68020 122600 86990 24150 64730 55980 38160 58800 62420 125700 79530 337300 34510 55070 47820 21150 25450 92420 20310 129700 41280 168700 47730 37340 99700 25910 40610 93030 163600 38170 105800 32630 31710 36370 32120 64430 51110 65160 41780 69790 33510 45670 102300 35390 47670 30080 46210 94900 12740 59870 60020 35880 50860 124600 116300 32900 34040 30710 40000 170400 19140 62940 6842 26060 22420 26210 152300 22990 175700 108500 16120 39660 121000 49720 36590 39180 27190 24430 83580 19150 61190 105200 101800 34080 105500 41390 50920 116100 46710 26020 40560 41270 35670 48710 35970 34440 28330 36870 101600 39810 65610 31980 43880 13950 48060 94770 42850 27380 36260 40400 58330 34690 30040 41850 120100 38990 32940 23120 25160 67190 39580 225800 41620 26180 35980 29800 88010 45440 26760 88250 48030 25500 61750 29740 81370 31530 50900 79500 32130 32920 28830 37860 87590 50480 36520 28730 63240 98210 35820 43200 92510 54550 28380 27970 43720 14660 38940 72210 43500 34320 42610 87070 58460 135200 58310 109500 45060 267300 118000 29260 93500 33510 32350 53210 171700 73630 55270 19450 19420 189200 36730 91690 15800 32360 19230 70550 22650 27470 49150 55510 46440 51310 32160 95550 26800 19880 25880 42320 47730 37950 103300 40190 105100 43930 66660 47720 27830 31260 50410 41910 34550 134500 51220 22510 67000 74910 20790 33170 77650 102700 43290 107200 44670 19580 77520 4832 50760 25930 30050 43890 72530 86040 69290 26210 50110 55350 98430 45890 28340 52090 69930 70930 20540 64680 14630 75080 28140 23740 25040 90270 37670 28080 39960 34070 11260 13590 93680 107900 29870 30100 36870 95800 28750 37910 181300 5716 93420 50820 70880 43870 36660 22770 50100 35090 95000 23410 26970 43510 27550 124100 38980 29250 44180 38200 46720 35330 52840 79180 59640 100000 34810 50810 65150 44040 29500 29040 30350 100400 69500 84980 38910 33880 95860 30180 71250 47790 68180 71230 78560 26320 28670 37540 61160 43260 40200 28580 43370 31670 61350 41700 42050 26750 17960 103900 82790 36310 28370 36650 42090 114100 90730 88220 114200 74780 46550 34070 40450 44920 25470 38480 47890 14280 34280 37550 27710 64940 33090 48120 66140 113300 145800 38430 49820 109600 35190 57010 86610 32320 33960 37760 37030 56510 35050 29850 62710
2022-04-03 67620 74870 19050 30560 39520 34490 53650 53120 22970 80230 47490 41650 42040 65520 25170 68160 122900 87190 24260 64990 56260 38280 59100 62670 126000 79770 338000 34610 55170 47960 21210 25540 92600 20380 130300 41470 169100 47940 37530 99900 26010 40670 93340 164200 38350 106100 32750 31810 36510 32180 64600 51210 65310 42000 70010 33630 45890 102400 35550 47730 30190 46340 95320 12770 60070 60250 36070 51110 125100 116700 33060 34210 30860 40120 171300 19250 63210 6944 26090 22510 26280 153400 23140 176200 108800 16180 39820 121400 49900 36710 39300 27300 24470 83860 19250 61350 105600 102500 34270 105800 41630 51090 116400 47030 26170 40800 41490 35870 48930 36150 34690 28460 37030 102000 39950 66000 32110 44090 14010 48260 95000 42970 27480 36410 40600 58680 34930 30160 41980 120700 39080 33090 23240 25250 67390 39720 226700 41800 26320 36090 29910 88270 45640 26790 88490 48200 25590 61890 29860 81590 31640 51100 79730 32300 32990 28920 38050 87820 50750 36660 28840 63760 98490 35950 43430 92730 54820 28430 28130 43960 14680 39120 72430 43630 34450 42840 87340 58670 135600 58480 109800 45240 268000 118200 29400 93760 33640 32470 53360 172100 73790 55480 19560 19540 189600 36860 92030 15860 32560 19260 70770 22770 27630 49390 55620 46580 51430 32330 95920 26920 19910 26080 42380 47980 38090 103600 40340 105300 44020 66800 48050 28050 31400 50570 42130 34710 135200 51420 22630 67420 75180 20870 33290 77860 103100 43480 107500 44810 19630 77660 4855 50950 25990 30100 44140 72770 86570 69580 26270 50230 55530 98640 46020 28440 52300 70290 71070 20580 64930 14690 75230 28280 23800 25160 90540 37800 28190 40100 34210 11310 13660 93890 108100 30000 30310 37050 96130 28860 38050 181900 5762 93900 50920 71120 44150 36900 22850 50370 35220 95510 23580 27100 43700 27690 124700 39190 29380 44410 38320 47020 35450 52990 79490 59880 100300 34930 51030 65370 44230 29610 29150 30530 100700 69690 85260 39100 34090 96150 30310 71530 48010 68270 71560 78770 26410 28800 37780 61400 43490 40420 28750 43590 31790 61530 41880 42300 26810 18100 104100 83050 36460 28490 36710 42360 114400 90980 88450 114500 75050 46760 34160 40650 45140 25560 38640 48170 14380 34440 37680 27830 65280 33290 48360 66320 113600 146600 38650 50020 110000 35330 57270 86830 32440 34120 37830 37200 56720 35180 29980 62980
2022-04-04 68030 75430 19160 30690 39730 34710 53810 53340 23180 80400 47740 41840 42270 65870 25340 68320 123400 87470 24390 65270 56610 38430 59400 62970 126300 80070 338900 34730 55290 48120 21270 25660 92810 20460 131000 41700 169500 48170 37740 100200 26110 40750 93820 165000 38550 106600 32910 31930 36680 32260 64800 51320 65510 42280 70300 33770 46170 102700 35740 47850 30330 46480 95810 12810 60330 60550 36270 51420 125800 117200 33210 34400 31030 40270 172400 19400 63550 7067 26140 22590 26360 154800 23280 176900 109200 16250 39980 121800 50120 36840 39440 27430 24540 84200 19380 61500 106000 103300 34480 106200 41960 51320 116700 47450 26340 41070 41770 36120 49240 36350 34990 28610 37250 102600 40130 66460 32260 44370 14080 48500 95310 43130 27600 36570 40850 59130 35190 30350 42120 121500 39170 33300 23390 25360 67650 39870 228000 42000 26470 36210 30040 88630 45900 26880 88770 48400 25710 62120 29980 81880 31770 51360 80010 32500 33070 29080 38270 88130 51050 36820 28990 64490 98790 36080 43670 93010 55140 28490 28320 44280 14730 39500 72700 43800 34570 43070 87660 58960 136000 58690 110200 45460 269000 118500 29560 94170 33780 32600 53510 172700 73970 55740 19680 19670 190100 37020 92430 15920 32760 19300 71100 22930 27830 49680 55720 46710 51570 32560 96350 27060 19980 26290 42440 48360 38280 104000 40530 105600 44120 66950 48470 28270 31550 50740 42390 34920 136000 51680 22770 67970 75480 20950 33420 78110 103600 43700 107800 44960 19690 77840 4875 51170 26060 30180 44470 73040 87120 69980 26350 50390 55770 98920 46140 28550 52610 70800 71210 20660 65200 14750 75410 28420 23870 25290 90870 37960 28320 40280 34370 11360 13750 94170 108300 30140 30590 37290 96550 29000 38230 182600 5817 94470 51050 71380 44530 37220 22950 50690 35380 96070 23780 27260 43940 27890 125600 39440 29510 44710 38460 47350 35580 53170 79860 60150 100700 35070 51300 65630 44440 29760 29290 30770 101100 69870 85610 39320 34290 96470 30460 71840 48250 68370 71890 79020 26520 28970 38070 61680 43760 40700 28910 43880 31920 61730 42100 42610 26880 18240 104500 83390 36690 28640 36810 42670 114800 91250 88750 115000 75370 46990 34270 40870 45420 25660 38810 48450 14490 34670 37830 27970 65730 33490 48640 66570 113900 147700 38900 50280 110600 35480 57590 87070 32600 34330 37930 37450 56980 35320 30120 63330

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.