COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-04-03 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-04-03

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-04-03

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-03-222022-03-252022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-272021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232021-12-282022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242021-12-292022-03-222021-12-292022-03-262022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-03-222022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-03-222021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-03-232022-02-062022-01-242022-03-222022-02-062022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062022-03-192022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-242022-03-242022-01-242022-03-142022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-03-252022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-232022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-212022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-02-222022-03-222022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-152022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-03-232022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-232022-03-272022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-03-222022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-03-262022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-262022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-22
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 133 177 1525 804 437 780 1774 1382 1599 1253 2241 151 3477 389 3961 989 2556 291 1411 1658 259 1199 3307 17521 108 3317 164 319 962 4696 641 659 1427 8814 207 928 238 916 76 3217 6862 1115 3849 131 1160 1302 2002 164 611 2895 228 267 1302 1418 240 1362 113 1222 456 424 192 216 253 206 267 3801 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7754 684 299 121 59 774 69 3960 151 7900 4326 71 1426 365 1559 1550 1634 862 267 3466 104 896 4767 2335 183 4687 2036 1878 304 1747 663 259 1254 216 239 1093 1560 891 1505 436 156 1625 976 1274 70 1353 3625 140 982 1189 221 2291 226 917 560 6120 97 1022 779 104 2871 1519 6944 1464 847 111 116 283 1261 75 3318 2105 122 191 112 3254 1188 223 244 867 1796 839 1224 4135 284 1188 122 2486 269 1327 1158 231 1474 1689 886 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 3609 2021 416 182 4514 194 822 230 803 3519 1176 122 694 507 169 1963 580 119 456 145 3625 516 696 246 2554 145 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1347 3381 825 66 1495 532 1263 1329 4887 1519 222 102 1141 1531 216 963 1941 228 177 3559 217 130 1868 2931 835 129 2965 434 1403 5264 1790 839 4269 264 206 80 1808 2223 3085 524 2589 72 2466 193 227 2322 107 1632 1804 1026 60 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 4307 141 892 155 142 49 72 4748 5886 951 1365 213 4438 857 1175 8405 632 523 112 2862 1130 1408 85 1599 1218 2982 167 129 208 159 4031 1059 875 1101 125 1007 1377 2510 327 242 324 1253 1583 232 1783 131 992 1278 3842 3631 3812 194 216 4460 131 2652 1725 890 330 3757 94 844 990 2555 1394 1055 812 231 1025 2766 1234 257 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 99 1143 5038 4407 252 4283 2987 213 1301 1098 1167 804 157 1077 245 808 1620 922 2543 189 247 228 5841 3883 989 1539 453 134 1823 4157 133 796 91 1077 2155 129 128 281
Days since peak 56 56 69 12 9 56 69 97 56 69 69 69 69 69 11 69 12 69 69 69 12 69 69 12 69 69 69 12 69 7 96 69 69 69 12 69 69 12 69 10 69 13 69 69 69 69 11 69 69 69 11 96 69 12 12 69 69 12 69 13 69 95 12 95 8 12 12 12 69 69 69 69 69 69 56 56 12 56 12 69 11 69 11 69 69 7 69 12 69 69 69 69 95 69 12 95 69 69 12 69 56 56 11 56 69 12 56 12 11 69 56 69 56 12 11 69 69 69 12 69 69 12 69 69 12 56 12 69 95 56 15 69 69 12 69 69 40 69 69 12 10 10 69 20 69 69 7 9 11 69 69 10 12 69 69 69 69 69 10 69 12 56 12 69 69 12 69 69 56 69 96 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 10 12 69 11 12 12 69 69 69 7 69 11 10 69 69 12 10 10 69 69 69 97 69 11 69 69 69 69 69 56 69 69 13 56 95 69 69 69 69 12 13 69 56 12 69 69 12 11 40 12 10 69 69 69 12 69 12 69 69 69 69 69 56 12 19 69 56 69 12 69 13 69 12 11 69 11 69 40 97 11 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 12 69 11 11 11 12 69 69 69 56 12 69 69 69 69 56 11 7 69 69 56 12 69 69 69 12 11 12 12 56 69 69 69 12 69 69 69 12 12 11 69 69 9 69 11 69 56 69 69 69 11 12 69 12 69 69 95 8 69 10 69 69 69 69 69 69 12 69 69 69 12 95 69 69 69 69 69 13 69 69 69 12 69 69 12 69 69 69 69 11 69 69 40 69 69 56 12 12 12 69 69 69 69 8 11 69 69 11 69 12 69 69 12 12 12
Last total 66945 73950 18802 30271 39197 34063 53300 52691 22702 79765 46971 41336 41555 64975 24967 68009 122344 87025 24107 64334 55722 38218 58320 62196 125197 79412 337403 34429 55074 47827 21074 25457 92487 20307 129070 41153 168662 47591 37195 99603 25799 40512 92664 162927 38017 105424 32518 31649 36308 32113 64435 50936 65143 41557 69648 33532 45447 101924 35111 47464 29917 45908 94548 12707 59681 59738 35631 50683 124453 116067 32763 33897 30600 39896 169701 18930 62660 6636 26059 22356 26187 151063 22791 175740 108481 16087 39487 120784 49641 36537 39087 27078 24332 83542 19084 60907 105008 100937 33907 105649 41157 50764 115962 46301 25836 40385 40993 35467 48420 35991 34228 28114 36646 101532 39803 65227 31773 43707 13886 47859 94574 42792 27291 36202 40397 57897 34423 29973 41621 119489 38799 32752 23035 25132 67299 39413 224888 41473 25962 35873 29763 87803 45324 26710 87989 47897 25475 61670 29649 81146 31461 50704 79327 31898 32919 28633 37648 87357 50331 36396 28657 62665 98074 35798 42932 92352 54287 28393 27782 43313 14633 38720 72045 43381 34189 42403 87102 58119 134985 58256 109097 44879 267094 117988 29126 93219 33530 32252 53043 171583 73562 55259 19328 19298 189143 36642 91502 15723 32017 19161 70340 22570 27226 48828 55341 46262 51319 31997 95086 26666 19826 25567 42257 47581 37819 103290 40213 105076 43798 66446 47234 27488 31227 50551 41802 34420 133593 51181 22449 66402 75005 20788 33127 77445 102609 43084 107210 44644 19577 77542 4817 50632 25870 30073 43640 72375 85600 69069 26093 50081 55516 98281 45984 28191 51858 69250 70688 20559 64440 14648 75139 27948 23772 24902 90305 37619 27976 39837 33955 11252 13512 93579 107926 29803 29933 36669 95495 28636 37717 181014 5710 92995 50730 70779 43582 36442 22754 49785 35117 94291 23177 26900 43278 27356 123237 38804 29151 44057 38088 46321 35374 52813 79061 59324 99649 34726 50598 65022 43960 29488 28945 30216 100196 69538 85096 38748 33629 95887 30083 71078 47552 67976 70817 78599 26322 28503 37386 61127 43122 39962 28364 43203 31562 61133 41648 41772 26673 17770 103762 82650 36248 28340 36513 41720 114147 90744 87982 113663 74685 46400 34040 40218 44719 25414 38391 47571 14059 34015 37461 27683 64508 32872 47920 66065 113241 144601 38305 49633 109264 35078 56970 86550 32219 33787 37559 36836 56265 35056 29836 62474
Last daily increment 164 220 32 74 109 73 95 102 72 77 112 84 89 144 75 55 186 153 32 75 166 71 110 108 198 91 443 58 61 82 2 56 109 42 275 96 220 106 80 95 30 7 156 294 105 176 55 30 75 38 94 5 123 87 111 74 93 10 65 4 36 64 199 8 113 91 81 132 285 264 66 64 66 61 498 45 138 49 15 38 36 440 69 400 213 39 67 137 90 59 67 51 9 157 53 80 173 299 82 217 128 104 157 155 81 131 111 111 87 85 120 51 70 233 81 214 50 127 29 78 93 52 50 78 125 175 95 57 57 349 5 61 55 59 146 45 499 83 73 38 56 123 105 3 101 82 69 89 49 95 52 113 102 91 44 45 91 100 160 53 43 265 142 81 106 91 136 33 71 94 7 121 109 62 49 117 167 84 231 97 131 69 390 143 60 117 71 51 79 253 87 120 50 61 224 78 141 29 80 6 116 63 75 138 55 79 87 98 181 69 2 100 2 151 76 188 87 98 0 85 139 90 83 136 93 74 307 112 61 146 182 42 72 96 231 89 125 91 28 66 13 97 2 38 120 98 224 148 1 68 99 109 94 51 80 186 13 31 94 45 94 41 33 49 144 96 59 65 67 24 47 124 157 70 112 104 152 54 74 248 31 253 64 128 134 152 42 126 101 173 76 64 93 57 289 112 66 124 62 136 87 92 175 91 118 54 81 106 107 69 61 73 163 142 185 86 88 195 51 101 92 5 149 121 61 45 132 122 106 91 73 80 59 75 91 92 3 60 124 123 74 63 6 103 198 128 105 146 158 106 38 94 106 36 61 125 40 84 60 57 184 87 113 112 164 399 109 121 240 60 158 136 51 67 5 104 112 70 72 130
Last week 1408 1787 304 509 700 725 621 703 602 573 798 614 679 1164 626 574 1654 1237 396 804 1126 647 995 983 1229 1007 3588 424 460 740 152 448 985 338 2354 798 1764 798 765 1035 333 195 1410 2545 810 1497 492 375 646 301 735 284 917 826 1119 615 871 515 519 227 360 425 1613 123 850 814 680 983 2358 2040 588 661 579 513 3912 395 1090 350 175 355 305 3729 544 2793 1481 298 559 1426 791 553 523 389 147 1389 416 528 1498 2346 670 1524 1082 888 1350 978 537 1013 799 817 801 791 943 418 630 1930 693 1505 448 958 277 719 1004 559 391 660 973 1347 770 569 471 2749 188 595 405 446 1139 530 4242 653 555 413 519 1128 826 199 983 686 541 807 446 927 410 855 1015 671 371 432 686 906 1109 541 441 1924 1193 617 791 966 1047 269 628 813 101 861 1069 560 483 840 1277 778 1757 722 1255 704 3553 1051 537 1199 627 461 586 2165 703 955 317 441 1924 608 1346 210 687 98 978 590 549 945 367 523 637 734 1377 477 153 700 168 1169 634 1459 774 928 294 561 1179 782 609 870 857 694 2253 921 584 1359 1442 334 566 789 1923 787 1238 636 231 675 96 819 172 274 1112 897 2005 1216 146 564 948 907 697 379 824 1349 405 253 971 289 729 387 267 435 1300 631 449 605 560 218 257 969 1063 560 889 728 1330 454 592 2163 230 2005 491 1044 1091 1057 379 1048 696 1656 556 530 767 505 2392 859 496 976 464 1120 631 681 1462 795 1261 495 828 857 865 550 472 669 1345 994 1406 767 765 1487 523 1059 764 241 1250 967 409 425 972 1081 889 831 582 876 452 630 709 869 211 499 1221 1089 663 523 204 877 1737 1143 968 1402 1209 891 427 706 806 351 606 1046 336 629 507 546 1392 657 968 932 1273 3182 862 864 1748 544 1188 1024 493 590 154 774 832 595 569 1042
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162022-01-242022-01-242021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142022-01-242021-07-142021-10-202022-01-242021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-06-062022-01-242021-10-16 --2021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142022-01-242021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152022-01-242021-10-192021-10-102022-01-242022-01-24 -- --2021-12-282021-07-152021-12-292021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-10-182022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012022-01-242021-11-032021-12-282021-07-142022-01-242021-08-172022-01-242021-07-102021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2022-01-242021-08-212021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-07-152021-08-242021-06-292022-01-242021-09-06 --2022-01-242021-08-262022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-15 --2022-01-24 -- --2022-01-242021-07-132021-07-142022-01-242021-09-022022-01-242021-10-132021-08-212021-09-062021-12-282021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-12-282021-07-15 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-172021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-09-022022-01-24 --2021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-112021-07-162021-07-152022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-152022-01-242021-12-27 --2021-09-032022-01-242021-07-152021-07-112022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242021-10-182021-07-122021-07-142022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-08-032021-07-152021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-12-28 --2021-06-29 --2022-01-24 --2021-12-30 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192022-01-242021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 --2022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-142021-09-012022-01-24 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262022-01-24 -- --2021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-052022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142021-07-132022-01-242022-01-242021-07-132022-01-242021-07-152021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-07-152022-01-24 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-152022-01-242021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-14 --2022-01-242021-07-142021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072022-01-242021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 --2022-01-242022-01-24 -- --2022-01-242021-07-152021-12-28 --2021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 1126 1275 89 5 97 127 120 604 4581 276 70 139 1660 144 287 2285 379 176 943 1550 127 2250 126 202 4741 107 478 1557 4180 68 508 218 621 4 258 1176 72 97 74 2935 249 177 1143 2214 1131 115 528 101 3005 67 2422 2091 1033 1466 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 1939 21 403 114 995 708 513 607 376 551 101 5019 122 140 92 86 481 202 400 1159 269 137 188 4677 133 1048 183 885 1468 100 65 157 3182 1563 61 417 1652 58 110 1007 185 929 88 171 421 482 67 56 884 274 123 941 95 1510 1137 3360 323 229 817 2104 1115 152 61 1498 3091 65 146 54 151 1707 82 1044 203 3914 84 3872 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 6117 3336 301 1732 11029 6320 51 213 80 1238 9205 3848 120 41 540 10177 1515 169 40 164 72 503 101 274 115 49 189 31 184 116 384 105 5335 518 164 659 94 256 1111 1060 1294 1824 525 291 228 77 1179 3811 87 264 158 255 1562 291 118 2613 315 2199 4529 297 1065 114 289 268 776 140 67 213 75 73 49 1311 1297 1206 259 344 253 94 78 1073 96 482 3240 2347 277 202 118 768 345 587 863 1470 763 470 128 68 77 1609 106 303 3022 2379 4073 70 131 3012 87 1077 91 243 339 240 1010 929 428 904 145 101 2290 219 968 143 137 116 92 150 1551 78 105 1351 134 106 226 286 64 422 79 352 3811 313 195 1563 73 70 90 1352 193 70 158 94 207 862 1416 1659 380 632 149 4859 1307 1188 63 397 117 1437 1060 2087
Low between peaks 83 99 16 38 57 42 2 28 49 59 51 163 103 28 53 95 54 99 87 179 71 406 34 33 47 31 75 221 39 190 75 119 22 28 83 100 2 100 40 34 44 31 43 97 73 94 118 91 22 56 21 143 25 71 85 93 98 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 107 5 28 25 29 227 54 190 143 19 39 163 49 43 39 41 35 63 142 69 128 56 26 150 58 101 49 63 68 36 30 35 136 48 25 19 48 23 49 86 80 64 41 67 199 36 29 19 22 75 54 199 21 36 49 112 22 57 39 89 40 75 27 85 104 32 32 18 70 81 41 34 59 115 39 97 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 95 49 74 51 269 77 20 66 35 39 183 66 51 17 47 129 31 77 11 75 30 58 36 58 32 24 22 2 75 54 120 38 103 32 54 36 39 68 84 52 157 44 56 115 88 22 32 136 42 112 50 87 95 29 19 148 22 83 84 49 38 51 68 125 15 61 17 69 20 21 17 54 55 53 20 21 104 38 28 79 33 189 149 50 91 64 40 28 58 48 45 63 35 149 59 28 35 30 42 55 119 80 161 34 49 48 36 33 38 118 78 85 79 87 96 52 64 24 117 85 22 34 55 35 37 63 74 33 36 81 61 41 72 125 31 40 36 172 111 94 86 88 36 31 40 59 87 17 37 42 89 76 97 113 112 316 69 111 53 59 31 28 52 36 37 95

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-04-04 to 2022-04-10

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-04-03 66945 73950 18802 30271 39197 34063 53300 52691 22702 79765 46971 41336 41555 64975 24967 68009 122344 87025 24107 64334 55722 38218 58320 62196 125197 79412 337403 34429 55074 47827 21074 25457 92487 20307 129070 41153 168662 47591 37195 99603 25799 40512 92664 162927 38017 105424 32518 31649 36308 32113 64435 50936 65143 41557 69648 33532 45447 101924 35111 47464 29917 45908 94548 12707 59681 59738 35631 50683 124453 116067 32763 33897 30600 39896 169701 18930 62660 6636 26059 22356 26187 151063 22791 175740 108481 16087 39487 120784 49641 36537 39087 27078 24332 83542 19084 60907 105008 100937 33907 105649 41157 50764 115962 46301 25836 40385 40993 35467 48420 35991 34228 28114 36646 101532 39803 65227 31773 43707 13886 47859 94574 42792 27291 36202 40397 57897 34423 29973 41621 119489 38799 32752 23035 25132 67299 39413 224888 41473 25962 35873 29763 87803 45324 26710 87989 47897 25475 61670 29649 81146 31461 50704 79327 31898 32919 28633 37648 87357 50331 36396 28657 62665 98074 35798 42932 92352 54287 28393 27782 43313 14633 38720 72045 43381 34189 42403 87102 58119 134985 58256 109097 44879 267094 117988 29126 93219 33530 32252 53043 171583 73562 55259 19328 19298 189143 36642 91502 15723 32017 19161 70340 22570 27226 48828 55341 46262 51319 31997 95086 26666 19826 25567 42257 47581 37819 103290 40213 105076 43798 66446 47234 27488 31227 50551 41802 34420 133593 51181 22449 66402 75005 20788 33127 77445 102609 43084 107210 44644 19577 77542 4817 50632 25870 30073 43640 72375 85600 69069 26093 50081 55516 98281 45984 28191 51858 69250 70688 20559 64440 14648 75139 27948 23772 24902 90305 37619 27976 39837 33955 11252 13512 93579 107926 29803 29933 36669 95495 28636 37717 181014 5710 92995 50730 70779 43582 36442 22754 49785 35117 94291 23177 26900 43278 27356 123237 38804 29151 44057 38088 46321 35374 52813 79061 59324 99649 34726 50598 65022 43960 29488 28945 30216 100196 69538 85096 38748 33629 95887 30083 71078 47552 67976 70817 78599 26322 28503 37386 61127 43122 39962 28364 43203 31562 61133 41648 41772 26673 17770 103762 82650 36248 28340 36513 41720 114147 90744 87982 113663 74685 46400 34040 40218 44719 25414 38391 47571 14059 34015 37461 27683 64508 32872 47920 66065 113241 144601 38305 49633 109264 35078 56970 86550 32219 33787 37559 36836 56265 35056 29836 62474
2022-04-04 67240 74300 18830 30380 39340 34350 53400 52800 22840 79860 47060 41470 41630 65220 25220 68120 122700 87240 24190 64520 55950 38330 58420 62400 125300 79850 338100 34520 55160 47960 21120 25540 92660 20370 130200 41310 169000 47760 37550 99800 25870 40680 92990 163300 38170 105700 32620 31730 36430 32170 64580 51010 65300 42000 70120 33630 45890 102200 35240 47580 29950 45980 94880 12740 59860 59810 35700 50890 125300 116500 32880 34230 30870 40000 170800 18990 62890 6713 26190 22430 26250 153300 23080 176200 108800 16150 39540 121000 49730 36640 39300 27130 24490 83760 19270 60960 105300 102300 34260 105900 41470 50950 116200 46510 25890 40840 41130 35870 48900 36140 34380 28210 36830 101900 39930 65540 31840 44080 13940 47990 95010 43030 27500 36330 40750 58170 34860 30230 41710 120000 38820 33100 23310 25220 67490 39520 226100 41800 26080 35920 29860 88290 45470 26890 88100 48040 25570 61830 29740 81300 31550 51090 79530 32240 32980 28680 37710 87460 50560 36510 28900 63130 98300 35910 43000 92550 54380 28440 27940 43500 14730 39240 72500 43660 34290 42570 87330 58310 135300 58400 109300 44950 267800 118200 29410 93820 33640 32350 53130 172000 73710 55640 19380 19530 189500 36760 91770 15740 32170 19190 70820 22810 27350 48900 55400 46410 51430 32190 95380 26710 19980 25700 42270 48130 37950 103600 40350 105300 43870 66540 47510 27860 31340 50700 41970 34480 134200 51360 22560 66720 75260 20850 33230 77580 103000 43170 107400 44760 19620 77670 4829 50990 26060 30120 43810 72520 86000 69320 26280 50190 55810 98390 46100 28280 51930 69660 70720 20610 64540 14700 75270 28220 23820 24940 90540 37740 28070 40120 34070 11340 13570 93770 108100 29910 30130 37090 95770 28730 37780 181500 5793 93900 50830 70980 44210 36650 22830 49890 35240 94470 23300 27110 43360 27470 123600 38970 29250 44530 38190 46920 35480 52940 79330 59410 100200 34830 50670 65200 44120 29590 29030 30360 100500 69710 85480 39100 33790 96160 30190 71170 47620 68000 71070 78780 26400 28780 37840 61330 43300 40040 28420 43380 31800 61270 41950 42260 26720 17870 104300 83140 36580 28420 36760 42270 114400 90950 88140 114400 74920 46580 34080 40310 44890 25450 38670 47660 14280 34170 37570 27790 64830 33230 48360 66480 113500 145300 38390 50020 109600 35190 57200 86750 32330 33930 37790 37190 56440 35170 29940 62690
2022-04-05 67630 74770 18900 30550 39580 34560 53520 52930 22950 79980 47230 41680 41760 65690 25410 68300 123200 87510 24350 64960 56360 38480 58590 62810 125500 80170 338900 34660 55280 48150 21250 25630 92870 20480 131000 41620 169400 48080 37820 100100 25900 40780 93230 163800 38460 105900 32820 31890 36620 32250 64800 51210 65490 42270 70450 33740 46190 102200 35540 47630 30040 46090 95550 12810 60160 59950 35800 51280 125900 117200 33090 34450 31040 40170 171700 19070 63370 6768 26260 22550 26350 154700 23280 176800 109100 16230 39630 121300 49850 36770 39460 27210 24570 84080 19390 61050 105800 103200 34480 106100 41700 51130 116700 46680 25970 41150 41310 36110 49200 36370 34560 28430 36980 102400 40120 66200 31940 44360 14050 48100 95310 43210 27640 36510 41030 58410 35140 30380 41830 120700 38890 33300 23460 25340 67700 39720 227200 42010 26330 36010 30030 88610 45580 26980 88260 48270 25700 61980 29910 81440 31710 51330 79900 32480 33050 28780 37830 87630 50930 36730 29050 63550 98700 36060 43150 92900 54530 28510 28070 43930 14780 39550 72850 43850 34500 42940 87600 58420 135800 58650 109500 45040 268800 118500 29600 94220 33790 32550 53260 172800 73960 55910 19460 19670 190100 36940 92280 15770 32510 19240 71140 22980 27650 49050 55470 46680 51530 32340 95930 26780 20070 25870 42310 48480 38170 103900 40540 105600 44050 66660 47740 28130 31500 50850 42080 34560 134700 51650 22740 67510 75530 20940 33380 77760 103500 43330 107800 44920 19700 77860 4852 51230 26170 30180 44070 72660 86710 69840 26370 50390 56030 98510 46280 28420 52090 69950 70830 20690 64700 14760 75430 28390 23890 25020 90860 37910 28250 40310 34280 11400 13670 94070 108300 30070 30290 37340 96340 28890 37880 182400 5857 94580 50990 71300 44590 36820 22950 50070 35400 94800 23570 27250 43470 27750 124200 39310 29450 44830 38390 47290 35610 53070 79780 59560 100600 35010 50790 65510 44350 29740 29100 30480 100900 69920 85770 39320 34150 96450 30390 71310 47740 68080 71550 79030 26490 28940 38130 61620 43640 40170 28520 43750 31960 61580 42150 42580 26830 18060 104700 83470 36800 28520 36890 42610 114700 91210 88300 114900 75280 46870 34140 40480 45000 25490 38880 47800 14410 34320 37770 27960 65110 33470 48640 66740 113800 146800 38500 50300 110300 35400 57580 87000 32530 34020 37920 37430 56770 35340 30100 63120
2022-04-06 67960 75170 18950 30700 39770 34720 53630 53060 23020 80100 47370 41860 41870 66060 25570 68460 123700 87760 24480 65290 56680 38620 58730 63120 125600 80450 339700 34780 55380 48310 21340 25720 93060 20570 131700 41850 169800 48340 38010 100400 25950 40850 93430 164300 38690 106100 32970 32020 36770 32320 64980 51350 65660 42510 70700 33850 46430 102300 35770 47660 30100 46190 96060 12870 60410 60080 35890 51590 126400 117700 33260 34630 31170 40320 172500 19140 63720 6795 26310 22660 26430 155800 23410 177400 109400 16310 39710 121400 49970 36890 39590 27280 24620 84350 19460 61120 106100 103800 34670 106400 41880 51290 117000 46820 26040 41420 41460 36320 49430 36560 34730 28600 37100 102800 40280 66690 32020 44590 14140 48200 95550 43370 27750 36660 41270 58620 35360 30530 41940 121200 38930 33480 23580 25450 67900 39880 228000 42190 26520 36080 30160 88910 45700 27060 88400 48460 25810 62120 30050 81540 31830 51540 80200 32670 33110 28870 37930 87770 51240 36900 29170 63870 99000 36190 43270 93180 54660 28560 28180 44250 14820 39800 73120 44010 34660 43210 87860 58550 136200 58840 109700 45120 269700 118700 29750 94550 33920 32700 53360 173400 74150 56130 19520 19780 190600 37090 92690 15800 32760 19280 71410 23100 27870 49180 55540 46900 51640 32450 96370 26840 20130 26020 42330 48770 38350 104300 40710 105800 44190 66770 47940 28340 31640 51010 42160 34640 135100 51890 22890 68080 75800 21010 33510 77930 103900 43460 108100 45060 19760 78020 4871 51440 26250 30240 44280 72770 87280 70240 26440 50550 56220 98630 46430 28540 52210 70200 70910 20750 64840 14810 75570 28500 23950 25090 91140 38060 28390 40460 34450 11450 13750 94310 108500 30200 30420 37560 96770 29020 37970 183100 5914 95040 51120 71560 44900 36950 23040 50220 35550 95070 23770 27360 43570 27950 124700 39570 29600 45080 38540 47580 35730 53200 80140 59680 101000 35160 50900 65760 44550 29870 29160 30580 101300 70110 86020 39510 34410 96730 30550 71430 47850 68140 71920 79240 26580 29070 38370 61870 43900 40280 28600 44030 32090 61820 42330 42820 26910 18210 105000 83770 36960 28590 36980 42860 114900 91450 88410 115400 75570 47100 34200 40620 45100 25530 39030 47920 14500 34440 37920 28110 65320 33660 48900 66960 114100 147900 38610 50520 110800 35560 57890 87230 32690 34090 38000 37620 57030 35490 30240 63450
2022-04-07 68250 75520 19000 30820 39940 34900 53730 53170 23090 80220 47490 42010 41970 66370 25690 68600 124100 87990 24590 65560 56960 38750 58870 63380 125700 80640 340400 34890 55470 48450 21410 25800 93240 20640 132100 42060 170200 48550 38160 100700 25990 40900 93550 164700 38880 106300 33110 32120 36910 32380 65150 51460 65820 42690 70940 33960 46600 102400 35940 47670 30160 46270 96490 12910 60620 60190 35980 51850 126800 118200 33400 34760 31290 40440 173200 19200 64030 6805 26360 22740 26500 156600 23520 177900 109700 16380 39780 121600 50080 37010 39700 27350 24670 84610 19550 61170 106500 104300 34800 106600 42050 51440 117300 46970 26110 41620 41600 36500 49620 36730 34880 28730 37230 103200 40430 67110 32100 44750 14210 48260 95750 43480 27840 36800 41440 58840 35530 30640 42040 121700 38960 33610 23660 25540 68090 40010 228800 42320 26680 36150 30280 89150 45790 27120 88550 48630 25910 62220 30160 81620 31940 51730 80450 32800 33180 28940 38020 87910 51500 37050 29250 64270 99300 36320 43380 93440 54800 28620 28300 44500 14840 39980 73300 44130 34790 43440 88100 58630 136600 59020 109800 45200 270500 118900 29850 94800 34040 32830 53460 173900 74320 56310 19580 19870 191100 37220 93030 15830 32970 19320 71610 23230 28050 49300 55610 47070 51740 32580 96740 26910 20160 26150 42350 48990 38510 104600 40860 106100 44290 66870 48130 28480 31760 51150 42200 34720 135500 52090 23020 68540 76050 21080 33620 78080 104300 43580 108400 45190 19810 78160 4888 51600 26300 30290 44480 72880 87770 70570 26490 50690 56370 98760 46570 28640 52320 70460 70960 20810 64970 14860 75710 28570 24000 25160 91400 38190 28510 40580 34600 11490 13820 94540 108700 30320 30540 37700 97140 29140 38050 183700 5959 95430 51240 71800 45120 37060 23130 50370 35680 95310 23930 27460 43670 28110 125100 39790 29740 45260 38670 47810 35840 53320 80460 59800 101300 35290 51000 65980 44740 29990 29200 30700 101700 70290 86230 39660 34630 97010 30680 71550 47940 68180 72240 79440 26660 29180 38570 62100 44130 40380 28680 44270 32180 62010 42460 43030 26980 18340 105200 83970 37090 28650 37050 43070 115200 91680 88500 115700 75840 47310 34250 40740 45180 25580 39160 48050 14590 34550 38060 28230 65490 33790 49100 67150 114300 148800 38710 50680 111200 35700 58160 87450 32830 34170 38050 37780 57250 35620 30360 63730
2022-04-08 68530 75860 19050 30940 40100 35020 53830 53280 23170 80340 47610 42160 42070 66660 25780 68730 124500 88220 24690 65820 57230 38870 59000 63640 125800 80810 341000 34990 55570 48600 21470 25880 93420 20710 132600 42250 170500 48750 38290 100900 26010 40930 93670 165100 39070 106400 33230 32230 37050 32440 65310 51560 65990 42830 71120 34060 46770 102400 36110 47690 30220 46350 96910 12950 60830 60300 36060 52100 127300 118700 33540 34890 31400 40560 173900 19260 64310 6830 26390 22830 26570 157400 23620 178400 110000 16440 39850 121700 50190 37120 39790 27410 24710 84860 19630 61230 106800 104800 34930 106900 42200 51590 117600 47180 26180 41800 41740 36640 49760 36890 35030 28860 37370 103600 40580 67500 32180 44930 14280 48340 95930 43580 27910 36930 41570 59100 35670 30740 42130 122200 38990 33730 23740 25640 68280 40150 229600 42430 26830 36210 30390 89350 45870 27160 88690 48790 26020 62310 30270 81740 32050 51870 80700 32920 33240 29010 38110 88040 51760 37190 29340 64540 99500 36440 43490 93680 54930 28670 28410 44750 14870 40150 73460 44240 34920 43650 88340 58710 137000 59180 109900 45290 271300 119200 29960 95030 34160 32960 53550 174400 74490 56480 19640 19950 191500 37350 93370 15850 33160 19350 71810 23320 28210 49420 55680 47240 51850 32710 97100 26970 20200 26280 42370 49190 38660 104900 41010 106300 44390 66970 48370 28630 31890 51300 42240 34800 136000 52300 23150 68970 76310 21150 33740 78230 104700 43700 108600 45320 19870 78300 4904 51740 26340 30340 44670 72980 88240 70890 26530 50820 56520 98890 46700 28740 52440 70720 71010 20870 65110 14910 75850 28660 24060 25220 91650 38320 28620 40700 34740 11520 13890 94760 108900 30440 30650 37830 97490 29240 38130 184200 5993 95770 51360 72030 45340 37180 23210 50510 35810 95540 24090 27570 43770 28260 125500 40000 29860 45420 38790 48000 35950 53450 80770 59910 101500 35410 51100 66180 44910 30100 29250 30840 102000 70470 86460 39790 34840 97280 30810 71680 48040 68220 72550 79630 26730 29260 38720 62320 44350 40490 28760 44500 32260 62190 42580 43190 27040 18460 105400 84160 37230 28700 37090 43250 115400 91900 88590 116000 76100 47510 34310 40860 45270 25620 39260 48170 14650 34690 38190 28360 65680 33900 49270 67310 114600 149700 38820 50850 111600 35840 58430 87660 32960 34240 38090 37910 57460 35740 30480 64000
2022-04-09 68800 76180 19090 31050 40250 35100 53920 53380 23170 80460 47710 42290 42150 66930 25870 68860 124800 88440 24790 66040 57480 38990 59120 63860 125900 80930 341700 35090 55650 48740 21530 25960 93600 20780 132900 42430 170800 48940 38370 101100 26030 40950 93690 165500 39240 106500 33350 32320 37180 32500 65460 51640 66150 42940 71240 34160 46870 102400 36260 47690 30270 46430 97280 12990 61020 60400 36150 52320 127500 119100 33670 34960 31490 40670 174300 19320 64570 6830 26410 22910 26640 157800 23690 178900 110300 16500 39920 121800 50300 37220 39850 27470 24720 85090 19680 61270 107100 105100 35010 107100 42300 51670 117900 47220 26240 41920 41870 36740 49860 37050 35170 28970 37430 104000 40710 67850 32250 45060 14340 48380 96060 43640 27950 37060 41670 59200 35770 30810 42220 122700 39010 33800 23800 25720 68480 40270 230000 42510 26970 36280 30500 89500 45910 27170 88830 48940 26120 62360 30370 81800 32140 51970 80930 33000 33300 29070 38190 88170 51990 37320 29390 64710 99800 36550 43590 93900 55060 28720 28460 44960 14880 40250 73570 44300 35030 43840 88570 58730 137400 59340 110000 45370 272000 119400 30030 95200 34280 33070 53630 174800 74650 56600 19690 20000 191900 37480 93670 15880 33330 19380 71930 23400 28360 49530 55750 47390 51950 32770 97420 27020 20210 26400 42380 49330 38800 105100 41150 106500 44470 67060 48450 28720 32000 51450 42250 34880 136200 52490 23260 69330 76560 21210 33850 78380 105000 43810 108900 45450 19920 78430 4920 51850 26360 30390 44840 73020 88670 71170 26540 50950 56640 99010 46830 28830 52540 70840 71050 20920 65240 14970 75980 28710 24110 25270 91900 38450 28730 40780 34870 11550 13950 94960 109100 30550 30710 37910 97790 29350 38210 184700 6020 96020 51470 72240 45470 37210 23290 50650 35940 95750 24220 27630 43860 28390 125900 40190 29970 45540 38910 48140 36060 53570 81050 60020 101600 35530 51200 66370 45080 30210 29260 30890 102300 70640 86620 39890 35020 97550 30930 71800 48140 68240 72830 79820 26800 29310 38820 62540 44540 40590 28830 44700 32320 62360 42680 43290 27090 18570 105600 84300 37300 28720 37110 43350 115700 92120 88660 116200 76340 47700 34370 40970 45290 25660 39350 48290 14690 34730 38300 28470 65780 33980 49390 67400 114800 150500 38920 50960 112000 35960 58670 87870 33090 34260 38100 38000 57650 35860 30590 64240
2022-04-10 69060 76500 19130 31160 40400 35190 54020 53490 23260 80580 47820 42430 42240 67180 25960 68980 125200 88660 24880 66240 57720 39110 59240 64080 126000 81080 342400 35180 55740 48880 21580 26040 93770 20850 133200 42600 171200 49110 38480 101400 26080 40970 93860 165900 39400 106700 33460 32410 37310 32550 65610 51720 66310 43060 71360 34260 47000 102400 36390 47690 30310 46500 97640 13020 61210 60500 36240 52540 127900 119600 33790 35050 31580 40780 174700 19380 64820 6886 26430 22980 26710 158400 23770 179400 110500 16560 39990 122100 50400 37320 39940 27530 24740 85330 19750 61320 107400 105400 35120 107300 42480 51790 118200 47380 26310 42070 41990 36860 49990 37200 35310 29080 37490 104400 40850 68190 32330 45190 14400 48510 96210 43720 28010 37180 41810 59350 35900 30890 42300 123200 39030 33890 23860 25810 68670 40390 230500 42610 27090 36340 30600 89670 46070 27170 88970 49080 26210 62470 30470 81950 32230 52100 81150 33110 33370 29130 38280 88300 52230 37440 29460 64980 100000 36670 43690 94120 55190 28770 28530 45160 14890 40380 73710 44390 35140 44030 88800 58860 137700 59490 110200 45450 272700 119600 30110 95360 34390 33170 53720 175300 74800 56740 19750 20070 192300 37600 93960 15910 33490 19410 72090 23470 28490 49640 55820 47530 52060 32870 97740 27080 20220 26520 42400 49500 38930 105400 41290 106700 44550 67160 48590 28810 32110 51590 42360 34960 136500 52670 23370 69680 76810 21270 33950 78520 105400 43920 109100 45570 19970 78560 4934 51970 26370 30440 45010 73190 89090 71440 26550 51060 56760 99140 46950 28920 52640 71030 71080 20980 65360 15020 76110 28780 24150 25330 92140 38570 28830 40870 34990 11580 14010 95170 109300 30660 30880 38030 98090 29440 38280 185200 6054 96330 51570 72450 45630 37410 23370 50780 36060 95960 24360 27710 43960 28520 126300 40370 30080 45690 39020 48320 36170 53690 81330 60120 101800 35630 51300 66560 45250 30320 29340 30970 102500 70820 86800 39990 35190 97820 31040 71920 48230 68270 73090 80000 26880 29370 38970 62740 44730 40690 28900 44890 32390 62510 42800 43420 27140 18670 105700 84460 37400 28810 37120 43480 115900 92330 88840 116400 76580 47880 34420 41080 45440 25700 39430 48410 14740 34800 38420 28580 66070 34100 49540 67510 115100 151200 39020 51110 112400 36080 58910 88070 33200 34370 38130 38120 57840 35980 30690 64480

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-04-04 to 2022-04-10

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-04-03 66945 73950 18802 30271 39197 34063 53300 52691 22702 79765 46971 41336 41555 64975 24967 68009 122344 87025 24107 64334 55722 38218 58320 62196 125197 79412 337403 34429 55074 47827 21074 25457 92487 20307 129070 41153 168662 47591 37195 99603 25799 40512 92664 162927 38017 105424 32518 31649 36308 32113 64435 50936 65143 41557 69648 33532 45447 101924 35111 47464 29917 45908 94548 12707 59681 59738 35631 50683 124453 116067 32763 33897 30600 39896 169701 18930 62660 6636 26059 22356 26187 151063 22791 175740 108481 16087 39487 120784 49641 36537 39087 27078 24332 83542 19084 60907 105008 100937 33907 105649 41157 50764 115962 46301 25836 40385 40993 35467 48420 35991 34228 28114 36646 101532 39803 65227 31773 43707 13886 47859 94574 42792 27291 36202 40397 57897 34423 29973 41621 119489 38799 32752 23035 25132 67299 39413 224888 41473 25962 35873 29763 87803 45324 26710 87989 47897 25475 61670 29649 81146 31461 50704 79327 31898 32919 28633 37648 87357 50331 36396 28657 62665 98074 35798 42932 92352 54287 28393 27782 43313 14633 38720 72045 43381 34189 42403 87102 58119 134985 58256 109097 44879 267094 117988 29126 93219 33530 32252 53043 171583 73562 55259 19328 19298 189143 36642 91502 15723 32017 19161 70340 22570 27226 48828 55341 46262 51319 31997 95086 26666 19826 25567 42257 47581 37819 103290 40213 105076 43798 66446 47234 27488 31227 50551 41802 34420 133593 51181 22449 66402 75005 20788 33127 77445 102609 43084 107210 44644 19577 77542 4817 50632 25870 30073 43640 72375 85600 69069 26093 50081 55516 98281 45984 28191 51858 69250 70688 20559 64440 14648 75139 27948 23772 24902 90305 37619 27976 39837 33955 11252 13512 93579 107926 29803 29933 36669 95495 28636 37717 181014 5710 92995 50730 70779 43582 36442 22754 49785 35117 94291 23177 26900 43278 27356 123237 38804 29151 44057 38088 46321 35374 52813 79061 59324 99649 34726 50598 65022 43960 29488 28945 30216 100196 69538 85096 38748 33629 95887 30083 71078 47552 67976 70817 78599 26322 28503 37386 61127 43122 39962 28364 43203 31562 61133 41648 41772 26673 17770 103762 82650 36248 28340 36513 41720 114147 90744 87982 113663 74685 46400 34040 40218 44719 25414 38391 47571 14059 34015 37461 27683 64508 32872 47920 66065 113241 144601 38305 49633 109264 35078 56970 86550 32219 33787 37559 36836 56265 35056 29836 62474
2022-04-04 67220 74280 18870 30370 39360 34220 53400 52820 22860 79870 47160 41490 41700 65220 25120 68130 122700 87270 24200 64500 55990 38340 58530 62430 125400 79660 338100 34530 55170 47960 21110 25560 92670 20370 129700 41330 169100 47770 37360 99800 25870 40570 92980 163500 38190 105800 32630 31750 36440 32180 64610 50990 65320 41780 69910 33650 45660 102100 35250 47520 29990 45990 94910 12740 59890 59920 35760 50930 125100 116500 32880 34060 30740 40020 170500 19000 62930 6716 26120 22430 26260 152100 22920 176400 108800 16160 39630 121100 49800 36640 39220 27160 24390 83810 19200 61020 105300 101600 34090 106000 41410 50920 116200 46500 25950 40620 41140 35700 48640 36140 34380 28220 36770 101900 39950 65610 31860 43920 13940 48000 94830 42920 27390 36320 40620 58160 34640 30130 41700 120000 38860 32930 23160 25210 67540 39530 225800 41650 26080 35950 29870 88080 45480 26790 88200 48050 25580 61850 29750 81320 31570 50950 79530 32070 32980 28730 37810 87560 50610 36520 28790 63050 98320 35910 43100 92570 54510 28440 27900 43520 14680 39010 72280 43530 34290 42590 87390 58280 135400 58410 109300 45040 267900 118300 29270 93520 33650 32360 53140 172000 73720 55490 19390 19430 189600 36770 91800 15770 32160 19190 70600 22700 27370 49040 55410 46360 51420 32140 95410 26760 19900 25690 42290 47880 37980 103600 40360 105300 43860 66540 47450 27650 31350 50740 41980 34570 134100 51370 22560 66690 75290 20850 33230 77610 103100 43230 107400 44780 19630 77690 4836 50820 25930 30140 43860 72570 86000 69370 26160 50200 55750 98500 46110 28280 52010 69530 70770 20620 64620 14700 75300 28060 23830 25000 90580 37730 28070 39980 34080 11310 13570 93830 108200 29910 30130 36860 95800 28750 37830 181600 5759 93530 50830 71010 43880 36690 22830 49980 35260 94650 23330 27040 43450 27480 123700 38990 29270 44330 38210 46590 35490 52960 79350 59480 99900 34830 50760 65230 44140 29610 29050 30350 100500 69720 85420 38950 33800 96180 30190 71280 47720 68030 71070 78790 26410 28630 37650 61360 43310 40130 28480 43380 31690 61270 41830 42000 26700 17880 104100 82940 36440 28430 36600 41990 114500 90990 88190 114000 74950 46590 34120 40370 44900 25480 38520 47750 14160 34150 37570 27790 64800 33050 48180 66300 113500 145300 38490 49850 109700 35200 57240 86770 32340 33910 37620 37030 56460 35180 29950 62710
2022-04-05 67570 74710 18960 30510 39540 34380 53520 52950 23020 79980 47380 41660 41900 65540 25280 68290 123100 87570 24310 64770 56290 38470 58830 62720 125700 79930 339000 34650 55280 48120 21180 25660 92880 20450 130400 41550 169500 48010 37570 100100 25950 40650 93340 164200 38410 106100 32770 31850 36590 32260 64790 51110 65530 41990 70200 33790 45900 102300 35460 47610 30090 46090 95360 12790 60120 60130 35950 51200 125700 117100 33040 34250 30880 40150 171400 19100 63260 6816 26180 22520 26340 153200 23070 177000 109100 16240 39790 121500 49970 36770 39350 27260 24450 84110 19310 61170 105700 102100 34270 106300 41680 51140 116600 46720 26090 40880 41300 35920 48870 36320 34580 28360 36910 102400 40130 66070 31970 44170 14020 48190 95110 43070 27500 36480 40860 58480 34870 30270 41800 120700 38940 33090 23290 25320 67770 39690 226900 41820 26270 36060 29990 88360 45670 26860 88450 48230 25690 62050 29870 81560 31680 51150 79800 32280 33060 28860 37990 87810 50900 36660 28910 63440 98620 36040 43310 92840 54740 28510 28050 43800 14710 39280 72580 43680 34430 42820 87680 58490 135800 58590 109700 45220 268700 118500 29430 93860 33790 32500 53250 172600 73910 55720 19460 19560 190100 36920 92170 15820 32370 19230 70860 22860 27570 49290 55480 46490 51550 32310 95790 26880 19960 25870 42360 48180 38140 103900 40550 105600 43960 66650 47740 27870 31480 50920 42200 34730 134600 51600 22700 67140 75620 20930 33360 77810 103500 43430 107700 44920 19690 77850 4859 51040 26010 30210 44140 72810 86510 69730 26230 50350 55970 98720 46260 28390 52230 69860 70930 20680 64850 14770 75470 28180 23890 25110 90890 37890 28200 40140 34240 11360 13640 94080 108400 30050 30340 37080 96180 28870 37990 182200 5814 94100 50960 71270 44190 36950 22920 50240 35410 95110 23510 27170 43650 27650 124200 39210 29400 44590 38360 46910 35620 53110 79710 59700 100300 34960 50970 65460 44340 29730 29170 30480 100900 69940 85750 39150 34050 96500 30330 71520 47920 68120 71420 79030 26500 28750 37900 61610 43550 40340 28650 43620 31810 61480 42000 42250 26770 18020 104400 83220 36620 28560 36690 42260 114900 91280 88450 114400 75260 46810 34210 40560 45100 25570 38680 48000 14260 34310 37720 27930 65170 33240 48420 66540 113800 146300 38700 50090 110100 35350 57530 87030 32480 34070 37710 37240 56680 35320 30090 63000
2022-04-06 67910 75100 19030 30640 39700 34540 53620 53070 23140 80100 47570 41810 42070 65820 25420 68430 123500 87830 24400 65000 56560 38600 59090 62960 126000 80190 339800 34750 55380 48280 21250 25750 93080 20530 130900 41740 169900 48200 37750 100300 26030 40700 93670 164800 38600 106400 32890 31940 36730 32330 64950 51210 65710 42200 70440 33910 46110 102400 35620 47680 30190 46180 95770 12830 60330 60330 36130 51450 126200 117500 33170 34410 31010 40280 172200 19180 63530 6902 26230 22610 26420 154100 23200 177600 109400 16300 39930 121800 50150 36890 39480 27350 24490 84420 19390 61310 106100 102600 34440 106600 41920 51320 116900 46930 26200 41110 41450 36110 49080 36480 34750 28480 37050 102800 40270 66460 32080 44390 14080 48360 95330 43220 27590 36630 41080 58760 35060 30400 41890 121300 39020 33240 23400 25420 68010 39820 227700 41980 26430 36160 30100 88630 45860 26930 88690 48400 25810 62240 29980 81750 31780 51350 80060 32450 33130 28970 38150 88030 51160 36800 29010 63790 98900 36170 43490 93070 54970 28560 28180 44020 14750 39500 72840 43820 34550 43020 87940 58690 136200 58770 110000 45390 269500 118700 29560 94150 33920 32610 53360 173100 74090 55930 19530 19660 190600 37070 92490 15870 32550 19260 71100 22980 27720 49510 55550 46600 51680 32460 96140 26990 20010 26020 42410 48440 38290 104200 40730 105800 44050 66750 47980 28060 31610 51070 42390 34880 135100 51800 22830 67530 75890 20990 33480 78010 103900 43610 108000 45050 19750 78000 4881 51240 26070 30250 44390 72990 86970 70040 26290 50480 56150 98950 46410 28490 52410 70160 71050 20740 65070 14830 75620 28280 23940 25210 91160 38020 28300 40280 34380 11410 13700 94310 108600 30180 30530 37280 96520 28980 38140 182700 5867 94560 51090 71500 44460 37190 23000 50470 35550 95530 23660 27270 43830 27790 124700 39410 29530 44820 38480 47190 35740 53260 80030 59900 100600 35070 51160 65670 44530 29860 29280 30610 101200 70140 86030 39330 34260 96810 30460 71760 48100 68200 71730 79240 26590 28860 38110 61840 43760 40530 28790 43840 31920 61650 42160 42440 26840 18140 104700 83490 36760 28670 36760 42490 115200 91520 88660 114800 75530 47010 34310 40740 45280 25650 38820 48230 14360 34460 37840 28050 65480 33410 48650 66760 114100 147200 38900 50300 110600 35490 57810 87270 32610 34210 37760 37420 56890 35450 30200 63260
2022-04-07 68170 75440 19110 30760 39840 34670 53720 53180 23260 80220 47750 41940 42220 66070 25540 68540 123800 88040 24490 65210 56800 38720 59330 63170 126200 80370 340400 34850 55470 48410 21300 25830 93250 20590 131400 41920 170200 48370 37890 100500 26100 40750 93920 165300 38770 106700 33000 32030 36850 32380 65090 51300 65870 42370 70680 34040 46290 102600 35770 47730 30270 46260 96130 12860 60490 60510 36290 51670 126600 118000 33300 34540 31130 40380 172900 19250 63780 6980 26270 22690 26480 154900 23320 178000 109700 16350 40060 122000 50290 37000 39590 27440 24530 84690 19480 61430 106400 103100 34580 106900 42140 51480 117200 47110 26320 41320 41580 36290 49240 36630 34900 28580 37170 103100 40400 66810 32180 44560 14150 48480 95530 43330 27680 36740 41250 59030 35240 30510 41980 121800 39080 33370 23490 25500 68180 39940 228500 42110 26570 36250 30210 88850 46010 26980 88890 48530 25900 62380 30080 81910 31860 51530 80280 32600 33200 29070 38290 88210 51390 36920 29090 64120 99130 36290 43650 93280 55180 28610 28300 44220 14770 39680 73050 43940 34660 43210 88150 58840 136600 58910 110300 45520 270100 118900 29670 94380 34040 32720 53460 173500 74230 56120 19600 19750 190900 37170 92740 15910 32720 19290 71280 23110 27860 49710 55620 46710 51810 32590 96440 27100 20040 26170 42460 48660 38420 104500 40860 106000 44130 66850 48200 28230 31720 51210 42530 35000 135500 51990 22950 67870 76120 21060 33590 78170 104200 43770 108200 45170 19790 78120 4902 51410 26110 30300 44620 73160 87390 70310 26340 50590 56310 99120 46540 28580 52560 70440 71170 20790 65280 14880 75750 28370 23990 25310 91400 38140 28400 40400 34500 11450 13760 94500 108800 30290 30700 37440 96780 29080 38270 183200 5914 94990 51190 71710 44700 37400 23080 50680 35680 95900 23800 27370 43990 27900 125200 39590 29640 45000 38580 47450 35850 53370 80320 60060 100900 35180 51320 65840 44700 29960 29370 30730 101400 70330 86260 39500 34450 97080 30570 71960 48270 68260 72020 79410 26650 28950 38310 62050 43950 40680 28930 44030 32020 61790 42290 42630 26890 18250 105000 83680 36880 28770 36820 42690 115500 91730 88840 115100 75730 47190 34390 40890 45440 25710 38940 48430 14440 34590 37940 28150 65730 33540 48840 66940 114300 148000 39060 50470 110900 35610 58040 87460 32720 34330 37810 37570 57070 35550 30300 63460
2022-04-08 68460 75770 19190 30870 40000 34780 53820 53300 23390 80340 47950 42080 42380 66310 25670 68660 124200 88310 24580 65410 57050 38850 59570 63400 126500 80570 341100 34950 55550 48510 21350 25910 93430 20650 132000 42090 170500 48550 38050 100700 26170 40800 94250 166000 38960 107000 33110 32120 36980 32440 65240 51370 66030 42540 70890 34150 46500 102700 35930 47810 30350 46350 96490 12900 60660 60700 36440 51870 127100 118400 33430 34690 31270 40490 173500 19310 64030 7057 26310 22770 26540 155700 23430 178500 110000 16410 40200 122300 50440 37120 39690 27520 24580 84960 19570 61550 106700 103700 34740 107100 42370 51650 117400 47300 26430 41530 41710 36460 49410 36790 35040 28680 37280 103500 40530 67190 32280 44770 14210 48650 95750 43440 27760 36880 41420 59330 35420 30620 42070 122400 39140 33520 23600 25590 68390 40070 229200 42250 26700 36340 30320 89060 46190 27030 89090 48660 26010 62530 30190 82120 31950 51690 80500 32760 33270 29160 38460 88410 51660 37050 29190 64410 99370 36410 43850 93500 55370 28660 28410 44450 14810 39900 73270 44060 34770 43400 88410 59030 136900 59060 110600 45670 270900 119100 29790 94650 34160 32830 53560 173900 74380 56310 19680 19840 191300 37300 93020 15960 32880 19320 71500 23230 28010 49940 55690 46820 51930 32730 96740 27210 20090 26320 42510 48910 38560 104800 41000 106100 44200 66950 48390 28390 31840 51350 42680 35130 136000 52170 23070 68180 76360 21120 33690 78330 104600 43950 108500 45290 19840 78250 4921 51590 26180 30350 44840 73350 87780 70590 26400 50720 56470 99280 46660 28670 52740 70740 71280 20840 65470 14930 75880 28470 24030 25400 91660 38270 28500 40530 34630 11490 13820 94700 109000 30420 30880 37610 97110 29180 38410 183600 5960 95430 51290 71950 44960 37590 23160 50900 35800 96250 23950 27480 44160 28010 125600 39780 29760 45200 38700 47690 35970 53500 80610 60230 101100 35300 51490 66020 44890 30080 29460 30860 101700 70520 86490 39670 34630 97370 30690 72160 48440 68350 72310 79590 26740 29050 38490 62270 44150 40870 29060 44230 32110 61940 42440 42820 26940 18360 105200 83890 37040 28850 36880 42910 115800 91910 89020 115500 75950 47390 34480 41060 45610 25780 39060 48620 14530 34700 38060 28260 66030 33690 49060 67130 114600 148800 39230 50650 111300 35730 58290 87660 32830 34450 37860 37730 57250 35660 30420 63680
2022-04-09 68680 76060 19250 30990 40120 34880 53920 53410 23470 80460 48110 42210 42510 66530 25770 68760 124500 88540 24650 65590 57280 38960 59800 63590 126700 80740 341800 35030 55620 48630 21390 25990 93600 20710 132400 42260 170800 48710 38190 100900 26240 40840 94440 166500 39120 107300 33210 32190 37110 32480 65360 51450 66160 42700 71090 34270 46670 102900 36060 47880 30420 46430 96820 12920 60820 60870 36600 52070 127500 118800 33550 34820 31370 40590 174100 19370 64270 7131 26360 22850 26590 156300 23540 179000 110200 16460 40310 122600 50580 37220 39800 27600 24620 85210 19650 61660 107000 104100 34880 107400 42570 51770 117700 47440 26530 41720 41840 36610 49580 36910 35180 28780 37370 103800 40630 67510 32370 44940 14270 48790 95930 43530 27830 37000 41570 59540 35560 30720 42150 122900 39200 33640 23680 25680 68560 40210 229800 42370 26830 36430 30420 89270 46330 27080 89280 48780 26110 62670 30280 82300 32030 51830 80700 32920 33340 29240 38600 88590 51870 37170 29270 64660 99590 36520 44020 93690 55580 28700 28520 44630 14830 40100 73480 44160 34870 43560 88590 59200 137300 59190 110800 45820 271400 119300 29890 94900 34260 32930 53650 174300 74520 56480 19730 19940 191600 37400 93270 16010 33030 19350 71690 23340 28150 50120 55760 46920 52050 32850 97040 27300 20120 26460 42560 49100 38680 105000 41120 106300 44260 67040 48560 28540 31950 51490 42830 35270 136400 52330 23180 68470 76580 21170 33790 78490 104900 44090 108700 45400 19890 78350 4942 51750 26220 30390 45060 73500 88140 70820 26440 50820 56600 99450 46780 28750 52930 70970 71380 20880 65660 14970 76000 28550 24070 25480 91890 38390 28600 40640 34750 11530 13880 94850 109200 30540 31020 37750 97360 29270 38530 184000 6005 95770 51390 72160 45170 37780 23230 51120 35930 96580 24060 27560 44310 28130 126000 39950 29860 45370 38790 47910 36080 53620 80880 60410 101400 35390 51640 66170 45050 30180 29550 30950 101900 70700 86720 39810 34810 97650 30790 72360 48590 68420 72590 79750 26790 29140 38650 62450 44310 41020 29190 44400 32210 62080 42570 42970 26980 18460 105400 84080 37160 28940 36940 43090 116100 92120 89200 115800 76150 47570 34560 41200 45750 25850 39180 48820 14600 34790 38160 28360 66250 33820 49240 67300 114900 149400 39390 50820 111600 35840 58520 87860 32940 34570 37920 37870 57410 35760 30530 63880
2022-04-10 68940 76400 19330 31100 40280 34990 54020 53530 23570 80580 48280 42360 42690 66830 25900 68890 124900 88770 24750 65860 57530 39080 60030 63820 126900 80960 342400 35120 55720 48780 21450 26070 93780 20770 133000 42440 171100 48890 38360 101100 26320 40890 94730 167100 39290 107700 33330 32280 37240 32530 65500 51540 66330 42920 71310 34390 46860 103000 36200 47960 30520 46510 97210 12950 61010 61110 36780 52320 127900 119200 33670 34970 31510 40690 174800 19430 64520 7211 26390 22930 26660 157300 23660 179500 110500 16530 40430 122900 50750 37330 39910 27700 24670 85470 19730 61770 107300 104600 35030 107700 42780 51910 118000 47620 26650 41940 41970 36800 49790 37070 35320 28890 37480 104200 40760 67880 32470 45130 14330 48970 96150 43640 27930 37140 41760 59770 35780 30830 42240 123400 39260 33770 23780 25760 68760 40330 230400 42530 26980 36530 30520 89510 46510 27110 89510 48940 26210 62820 30380 82520 32130 52010 80920 33050 33410 29320 38760 88810 52100 37290 29370 64940 99850 36640 44170 93910 55830 28750 28620 44830 14860 40320 73720 44290 34980 43750 88830 59410 137600 59350 111100 45970 272100 119500 30010 95170 34380 33030 53750 174800 74680 56680 19790 20040 192000 37520 93590 16050 33190 19380 71910 23450 28310 50310 55830 47020 52180 32980 97370 27400 20150 26600 42600 49380 38810 105300 41260 106500 44350 67140 48740 28720 32070 51640 43030 35410 136800 52520 23280 68910 76850 21240 33900 78680 105300 44280 108900 45530 19940 78470 4964 51920 26270 30450 45270 73720 88600 71130 26480 50940 56770 99640 46910 28860 53130 71230 71490 20930 65900 15030 76140 28670 24120 25560 92150 38510 28700 40780 34880 11570 13940 95050 109400 30650 31190 37940 97680 29370 38670 184500 6050 96220 51500 72360 45430 38000 23310 51380 36060 97020 24210 27680 44480 28270 126400 40130 29970 45600 38900 48180 36200 53760 81160 60620 101600 35510 51860 66360 45220 30290 29660 31060 102300 70890 86980 39960 34990 97930 30910 72600 48760 68490 72870 79940 26860 29250 38870 62660 44510 41240 29320 44610 32310 62250 42730 43180 27040 18570 105600 84320 37290 29050 37000 43310 116400 92360 89440 116200 76410 47750 34640 41360 45960 25930 39330 49080 14680 34890 38280 28480 66580 33980 49470 67480 115100 150300 39570 51030 112100 35960 58770 88090 33070 34720 37980 38050 57610 35880 30640 64130

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.