COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-04-09 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-04-09

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-04-09

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-172022-01-242022-03-152022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-03-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062022-03-172022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-142022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-152022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-03-152022-03-262022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-142022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-282022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-162022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-152022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 1126 1275 1525 804 437 780 1774 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 3477 385 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 2285 1199 3307 17521 1550 3317 2250 319 92 4696 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4179 916 78 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 146 2002 2934 611 187 1143 2214 1302 1418 247 1362 117 1222 456 3005 192 2422 2091 1033 1466 3801 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7754 684 1939 121 59 774 995 3960 513 7900 4326 68 1426 5019 1559 1550 1634 862 267 3466 481 896 4767 2335 1159 292 2036 1878 4677 1747 663 1048 1254 885 1468 1093 1560 891 1505 3182 151 1625 976 1274 417 1353 3625 1652 982 1189 1007 2291 930 917 560 6120 100 1022 779 101 2871 1519 6944 1464 847 1510 1137 3360 1261 78 3318 2105 114 2104 1115 3254 1188 1498 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 1707 1188 1044 2486 3914 126 1158 3872 1474 1689 886 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 260 2021 6117 178 4514 1732 809 226 803 3519 130 1238 694 9205 3848 1963 580 540 10177 1515 3625 516 696 246 2554 142 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1347 3381 825 64 1495 532 1263 1329 4887 1519 220 104 1141 1531 659 963 1941 1111 1060 3559 212 525 1868 283 835 126 2965 423 1403 265 1790 839 4269 264 1562 83 55 2223 3085 2613 2589 75 2466 191 225 2322 103 1632 1804 1026 58 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 277 137 892 1297 1206 259 344 4748 210 951 1365 1073 4438 857 1175 8405 632 3240 2347 2862 1130 1408 768 1599 140 2982 587 863 1470 763 4031 1059 875 1101 1609 1007 124 2510 3022 2379 4073 1253 1583 220 189 126 992 1278 3842 3631 282 191 929 4460 904 2652 1725 116 2290 3757 89 844 990 2555 1394 1055 812 1551 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 102 1143 5037 236 3811 4283 2987 1563 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 808 1620 922 2543 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 227 1188 796 95 1077 2155 1437 1060 2087
Days since peak 62 62 75 75 75 62 75 103 62 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 18 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 102 18 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 25 75 75 75 75 75 75 18 75 75 102 18 75 75 75 75 23 75 25 75 101 75 101 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 62 62 75 62 25 75 75 75 75 75 75 13 75 75 75 75 75 75 101 75 75 101 75 75 75 13 62 62 75 62 75 75 62 75 75 75 62 75 62 75 17 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 62 75 75 101 62 23 75 75 18 75 75 46 75 75 75 75 75 75 26 75 75 13 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 62 75 18 75 75 75 75 62 75 102 75 75 75 75 75 16 75 75 18 75 75 18 18 75 75 18 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 103 75 18 75 75 75 75 75 62 75 75 19 62 101 75 75 75 75 18 25 75 62 75 75 75 75 75 46 18 75 75 18 75 18 75 18 75 18 75 75 75 62 75 25 14 62 75 75 75 26 75 18 17 75 17 75 46 103 17 75 75 75 75 75 75 18 18 75 75 75 75 75 75 12 75 62 75 75 75 75 75 62 75 75 75 75 62 75 75 17 75 75 75 75 75 62 75 75 75 75 75 14 75 75 75 75 75 75 15 18 18 75 62 75 75 13 18 75 75 75 75 75 24 75 75 18 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 101 75 75 75 75 75 25 75 75 17 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 46 75 75 62 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 18 75 75 19 75 75 75 75 75
Last total 68125 75408 19041 30712 39744 34638 53801 53376 23216 80265 47630 41787 42069 65847 25431 68407 123388 87917 24429 64851 56585 38698 59083 62875 126327 80135 340044 34850 55393 48347 21113 25765 93133 20569 130890 41686 169991 48166 37771 100227 26014 40572 93636 164553 38642 106455 32918 31892 36761 32332 64966 51035 65826 42211 70353 33922 46090 102104 35586 47571 30111 46385 95722 12750 60325 60369 36082 51360 126134 117445 33163 34367 31056 40329 173245 19305 63427 6955 26135 22654 26407 153543 23180 177966 109479 16294 39862 121826 50194 36982 39455 27417 24392 84567 19405 61281 106026 102842 34421 106686 42157 51536 116830 47207 26258 41103 41734 36043 49023 36596 35009 28421 37230 103034 40312 66323 32113 44334 14085 48300 95199 43218 27585 36627 41022 59037 35005 30350 41933 121884 38841 33289 23308 25472 68122 39861 228348 41852 26362 36191 30089 88619 45836 26765 88669 48347 25900 62162 30062 81801 31756 51398 79997 32344 33202 28919 38213 88041 51158 36783 28997 64254 98976 36257 43471 93087 55022 28605 28350 43879 14671 39362 72739 43780 34509 43050 88072 58659 136154 58723 109979 45483 269563 118773 29534 94047 34055 32598 53591 172971 74078 56006 19593 19631 190293 37078 92416 15899 32500 19194 70986 22958 27686 49503 55639 46682 51780 32602 96138 26988 19875 26171 42318 48476 38300 104277 40724 105749 43882 66912 48082 28050 31643 51269 42344 34945 135639 51884 22886 67393 75937 21009 33523 78109 104030 43718 107925 45155 19760 78079 4923 51287 25976 30273 44477 72992 86894 69860 26152 50464 56249 98975 46544 28498 52429 70358 70833 20780 65081 14869 75679 28237 23974 25193 91213 38093 28264 40390 34377 11409 13724 94283 108741 30231 30667 37163 96511 28963 38194 183081 6025 94374 51051 71555 44343 37236 22999 50552 35640 95393 23606 27242 43855 27726 125305 39506 29514 44736 38497 47127 35907 53281 80070 59891 100462 35077 51156 65650 44672 29909 29284 30836 101119 70206 86182 39319 34136 97070 30459 71774 48039 68107 71706 79175 26609 28823 38069 61913 43772 40524 28728 43750 31847 61505 42135 42418 26735 18164 104560 83474 36747 28716 36594 42341 115394 91637 88621 114671 75489 46993 34340 40749 45310 25694 38767 48311 14331 34588 37811 28074 65688 33396 48703 66693 114189 146880 38867 50237 110447 35441 57887 87398 32592 34273 37608 37381 56945 35488 30268 63296
Last daily increment 147 147 28 36 55 55 54 83 46 48 63 47 44 94 39 37 127 88 32 51 93 39 72 67 120 70 239 49 39 47 0 33 55 37 166 55 111 61 63 51 20 0 95 157 63 127 31 30 50 26 56 0 57 61 55 39 47 0 52 0 24 48 130 0 56 73 43 59 195 147 45 55 47 43 375 29 93 33 0 25 22 278 37 237 107 22 37 92 50 47 46 42 0 100 42 41 96 193 57 92 115 74 88 74 44 74 70 66 66 66 90 42 54 171 59 122 26 67 19 46 72 49 39 53 51 107 63 42 26 308 0 74 34 46 72 58 332 39 33 30 27 90 55 0 81 53 54 35 53 59 33 68 66 55 29 28 63 61 80 37 38 174 93 44 75 70 89 16 52 57 0 61 56 41 43 60 108 49 128 27 76 68 259 90 34 80 53 35 42 125 44 80 24 28 119 36 101 25 57 0 59 37 60 79 32 42 52 61 111 28 0 69 0 86 47 103 50 58 0 39 88 52 58 71 63 55 229 82 49 126 89 14 43 84 153 79 76 44 13 37 7 61 0 23 92 62 126 71 0 41 67 73 65 24 58 106 0 28 73 21 45 35 15 48 80 51 23 62 34 17 23 74 70 37 66 42 90 36 51 224 34 135 19 69 60 80 15 80 48 116 45 25 59 42 209 82 49 68 31 78 69 44 115 50 81 33 56 47 65 46 45 69 107 72 125 53 54 111 42 81 52 0 105 59 35 35 66 76 55 66 32 56 30 36 52 61 0 27 67 93 54 35 0 61 138 83 67 96 84 68 35 61 50 25 36 78 42 76 35 34 129 61 84 58 97 235 63 60 115 46 83 65 30 53 0 67 70 43 51 66
Last week 1174 1444 231 401 540 574 502 684 507 501 634 443 499 864 464 358 1026 882 310 513 856 473 751 666 1131 704 2588 420 318 514 37 303 633 258 1753 527 1314 567 570 614 207 56 960 1605 611 1013 396 233 447 217 527 92 672 644 688 384 633 161 433 98 191 477 1162 36 642 625 449 664 1670 1356 389 443 450 425 3517 370 761 316 73 282 219 2467 385 2200 997 203 369 1026 547 442 366 328 59 1007 319 374 1006 1853 505 1029 985 766 847 898 415 708 728 574 587 592 771 304 579 1467 499 1071 339 625 182 430 608 405 288 423 612 1123 576 371 312 2371 41 530 262 334 817 438 3419 371 397 316 308 784 501 54 661 441 421 476 412 636 286 688 664 439 281 285 554 636 820 380 338 1567 890 457 525 718 722 211 567 561 36 625 678 386 318 633 959 521 1156 454 868 589 2400 770 401 810 521 340 549 1341 500 732 264 333 1134 426 900 176 481 33 630 384 460 666 298 421 458 599 1028 315 42 603 60 882 472 983 507 636 67 466 838 557 412 706 524 525 2014 702 427 982 918 220 394 651 1408 624 714 509 182 521 106 642 77 188 827 607 1289 783 50 370 722 630 555 306 568 1101 139 219 620 220 534 287 202 288 892 467 284 549 413 156 206 697 782 408 725 493 993 322 468 1978 315 1357 315 761 756 786 239 753 518 1093 425 330 570 366 2052 686 361 669 396 794 521 460 1000 554 798 344 551 622 708 414 334 611 915 661 1083 569 502 1162 368 678 485 122 880 568 286 313 670 775 647 561 362 531 277 360 477 642 55 395 782 809 489 366 70 616 1231 869 621 992 793 589 299 525 586 276 368 736 271 561 345 390 1163 517 770 614 930 2261 557 596 1163 359 907 814 365 457 46 537 672 429 428 803
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2022-01-242021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192022-01-242021-08-052021-07-16 -- --2021-12-282021-07-152021-12-292021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-152021-11-032021-12-282021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2022-01-242021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-052022-01-24 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-062021-12-282021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-12-282021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 --2022-01-242021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152022-01-24 --2021-10-142022-01-242021-07-152021-07-162022-01-242022-01-242021-07-112021-07-162022-01-242021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-152022-01-242021-12-27 --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-12-272022-01-24 --2021-10-182022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-08-032022-01-242021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-292021-12-282022-01-242021-06-29 --2021-07-15 --2021-12-30 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192022-01-242021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152022-01-242021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-10-182021-07-152022-01-24 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- --2022-01-242021-07-142021-07-152021-12-28 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 4581 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 962 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 508 218 621 4 258 94 72 1302 74 160 249 2895 72 159 1131 115 528 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 21 403 114 708 607 376 551 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 4687 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 1563 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 482 67 56 884 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 323 229 817 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 1327 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 3609 316 3336 301 117 11029 6320 51 213 1176 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 503 101 274 115 49 189 31 184 116 384 105 5335 518 164 123 94 256 1294 1824 291 2931 77 1179 3811 87 5264 158 255 143 291 1808 118 343 315 2199 4529 297 1065 114 289 268 776 140 67 213 75 73 49 4307 1311 116 70 253 5886 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 1218 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 1377 303 200 152 243 70 131 3012 1783 1077 91 243 339 3812 1010 201 428 57 145 101 890 329 219 968 143 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 422 79 352 4407 157 313 195 144 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 4157 99 63 397 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 59 18 163 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 21 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 28 83 100 2 100 38 34 55 31 68 97 43 35 58 99 22 56 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 5 29 25 227 190 143 19 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 85 56 26 58 49 49 57 36 30 35 6 49 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 199 36 29 19 22 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 22 57 39 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 100 143 49 74 44 269 77 20 66 41 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 58 36 58 32 24 22 2 75 54 120 38 103 32 54 61 39 68 157 44 115 99 22 32 136 42 108 50 87 51 29 9 19 108 22 86 84 49 38 51 68 125 15 61 17 69 20 21 17 66 54 56 25 104 56 38 28 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 22 46 58 34 40 149 59 28 35 35 42 33 55 94 56 65 34 49 48 60 33 38 118 78 78 79 62 96 24 64 24 56 103 85 22 34 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 40 36 172 68 70 94 86 69 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 58 28 31 28 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-04-10 to 2022-04-16

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-04-09 68125 75408 19041 30712 39744 34638 53801 53376 23216 80265 47630 41787 42069 65847 25431 68407 123388 87917 24429 64851 56585 38698 59083 62875 126327 80135 340044 34850 55393 48347 21113 25765 93133 20569 130890 41686 169991 48166 37771 100227 26014 40572 93636 164553 38642 106455 32918 31892 36761 32332 64966 51035 65826 42211 70353 33922 46090 102104 35586 47571 30111 46385 95722 12750 60325 60369 36082 51360 126134 117445 33163 34367 31056 40329 173245 19305 63427 6955 26135 22654 26407 153543 23180 177966 109479 16294 39862 121826 50194 36982 39455 27417 24392 84567 19405 61281 106026 102842 34421 106686 42157 51536 116830 47207 26258 41103 41734 36043 49023 36596 35009 28421 37230 103034 40312 66323 32113 44334 14085 48300 95199 43218 27585 36627 41022 59037 35005 30350 41933 121884 38841 33289 23308 25472 68122 39861 228348 41852 26362 36191 30089 88619 45836 26765 88669 48347 25900 62162 30062 81801 31756 51398 79997 32344 33202 28919 38213 88041 51158 36783 28997 64254 98976 36257 43471 93087 55022 28605 28350 43879 14671 39362 72739 43780 34509 43050 88072 58659 136154 58723 109979 45483 269563 118773 29534 94047 34055 32598 53591 172971 74078 56006 19593 19631 190293 37078 92416 15899 32500 19194 70986 22958 27686 49503 55639 46682 51780 32602 96138 26988 19875 26171 42318 48476 38300 104277 40724 105749 43882 66912 48082 28050 31643 51269 42344 34945 135639 51884 22886 67393 75937 21009 33523 78109 104030 43718 107925 45155 19760 78079 4923 51287 25976 30273 44477 72992 86894 69860 26152 50464 56249 98975 46544 28498 52429 70358 70833 20780 65081 14869 75679 28237 23974 25193 91213 38093 28264 40390 34377 11409 13724 94283 108741 30231 30667 37163 96511 28963 38194 183081 6025 94374 51051 71555 44343 37236 22999 50552 35640 95393 23606 27242 43855 27726 125305 39506 29514 44736 38497 47127 35907 53281 80070 59891 100462 35077 51156 65650 44672 29909 29284 30836 101119 70206 86182 39319 34136 97070 30459 71774 48039 68107 71706 79175 26609 28823 38069 61913 43772 40524 28728 43750 31847 61505 42135 42418 26735 18164 104560 83474 36747 28716 36594 42341 115394 91637 88621 114671 75489 46993 34340 40749 45310 25694 38767 48311 14331 34588 37811 28074 65688 33396 48703 66693 114189 146880 38867 50237 110447 35441 57887 87398 32592 34273 37608 37381 56945 35488 30268 63296
2022-04-10 68370 75710 19090 30750 39840 34750 53880 53470 23280 80350 47740 41870 42160 66000 25500 68520 123600 88100 24460 65020 56740 38790 59200 63010 126500 80290 340600 34900 55460 48430 21120 25830 93270 20610 131200 41790 170300 48260 37870 100300 26060 40580 93720 164900 38740 106700 32990 31920 36830 32380 65050 51040 66140 42370 70480 33960 46180 102200 35660 47590 30120 46470 95940 12760 60490 60490 36170 51500 126600 117700 33230 34430 31140 40400 174100 19360 63570 6999 26150 22680 26550 154000 23240 178900 109700 16340 39940 121900 50310 37070 39540 27480 24420 84670 19460 61310 106200 103200 34520 106800 42320 51670 117100 47470 26330 41250 41920 36140 49170 36650 35150 28470 37310 103200 40360 66530 32170 44440 14120 48380 95330 43290 27630 36700 41130 59380 35110 30390 41980 122300 38870 33340 23360 25500 68510 39930 229000 41910 26430 36240 30150 88790 45920 26770 88820 48430 25940 62280 30120 81970 31810 51520 80110 32420 33260 28980 38300 88170 51310 36840 29060 64550 99100 36330 43570 93190 55190 28650 28490 43980 14680 39450 72910 43820 34570 43160 88520 58680 136400 58810 110100 45620 270100 118900 29600 94100 34120 32660 53680 173300 74210 56130 19670 19730 190400 37170 92570 15930 32560 19200 71130 23050 27750 49630 55700 46750 51880 32700 96400 27050 19880 26270 42330 48710 38390 104500 40840 105900 43890 66990 48390 28140 31720 51520 42440 35090 136300 52000 22950 67570 76140 21030 33590 78230 104300 43810 108100 45250 19800 78180 4942 51460 25990 30320 44610 73200 87120 70000 26160 50520 56550 99130 46650 28550 52600 70570 70850 20820 65150 14910 75940 28290 24010 25240 91310 38160 28320 40480 34460 11440 13740 94460 109100 30270 30790 37260 96690 29010 38270 183300 6069 94630 51140 71680 44460 37430 23040 50680 35730 95590 23670 27340 43960 27810 126000 39620 29590 44840 38560 47250 36010 53570 80250 60060 100700 35140 51250 65770 44730 29950 29350 30940 101300 70350 86380 39430 34230 97300 30520 71940 48130 68120 71860 79290 26640 28900 38170 62100 43870 40640 28800 43840 31960 61570 42210 42570 26740 18210 104700 83640 36840 28770 36610 42430 115700 91810 88820 114700 75690 47100 34390 40840 45410 25740 38890 48450 14370 34730 37930 28140 65860 33490 48840 66790 114300 147300 38960 50340 110700 35510 58060 87560 32650 34330 37620 37470 57050 35560 30360 63440
2022-04-11 68720 76160 19190 30830 39990 34960 54000 53600 23380 80500 47900 42000 42300 66240 25610 68630 123900 88550 24530 65190 56970 39010 59400 63240 126800 80470 341200 34970 55530 48540 21150 25990 93610 20670 131600 41980 170600 48400 38010 100500 26120 40600 93970 165400 38880 106900 33090 31980 36930 32490 65180 51060 66370 42540 70640 34040 46300 102300 35790 47640 30150 46600 96280 12800 60660 60660 36320 51730 127100 118000 33320 34520 31250 40480 175000 19460 63800 7059 26200 22730 26670 154800 23340 179700 109900 16400 40060 122100 50450 37280 39640 27600 24450 84850 19540 61390 106500 103700 34660 107000 42520 51830 117300 47740 26430 41470 42100 36270 49360 36760 35380 28520 37420 103400 40450 66840 32260 44610 14170 48480 95470 43380 27690 36810 41290 59680 35270 30490 42090 122900 38910 33460 23440 25560 68820 40020 229700 42020 26550 36310 30240 88980 46040 26800 89060 48540 26000 62410 30200 82130 31880 51690 80280 32540 33380 29120 38440 88330 51550 36930 29160 65080 99300 36430 43720 93310 55380 28740 28640 44150 14690 39610 73090 43900 34670 43320 88890 58790 136700 58950 110300 45800 270700 119100 29710 94280 34200 32740 53830 173700 74320 56290 19750 19820 190700 37260 92770 15960 32650 19210 71290 23150 27810 49810 55800 46850 52080 32870 96630 27160 19910 26400 42350 48960 38530 104700 40950 106100 43930 67140 48650 28280 31820 51730 42580 35250 136900 52150 23040 67860 76640 21080 33690 78400 104500 43920 108200 45470 19890 78300 4981 51640 26020 30420 44780 73370 87510 70230 26180 50600 56820 99300 46840 28630 52780 70840 70920 20920 65250 15000 76160 28370 24050 25310 91500 38220 28400 40610 34590 11520 13790 94640 109400 30350 30960 37420 96990 29080 38370 183600 6117 95030 51230 71850 44680 37590 23100 50870 35850 95930 23770 27420 44120 27920 126600 39790 29690 45000 38650 47470 36200 53760 80500 60230 100900 35220 51390 65980 44840 30020 29430 31090 101500 70660 86590 39600 34400 97810 30610 72130 48280 68160 72100 79460 26700 29000 38330 62300 44030 40830 28940 43970 32050 61670 42300 42760 26760 18270 105000 83860 36970 28840 36660 42590 116200 92210 89020 115000 75880 47260 34440 40980 45570 25810 39000 48690 14440 34870 38040 28220 66110 33640 49010 66920 114500 148000 39100 50500 111100 35610 58310 87950 32720 34450 37650 37610 57200 35650 30460 63680
2022-04-12 69010 76530 19260 30900 40120 35120 54100 53710 23480 80620 48030 42120 42420 66450 25710 68710 124100 88880 24580 65320 57170 39170 59570 63420 127100 80610 341700 35030 55600 48640 21170 26110 93860 20720 132000 42130 170800 48520 38130 100600 26170 40620 94170 165900 39010 107200 33180 32030 37020 32570 65280 51070 66570 42710 70790 34110 46410 102300 35890 47670 30190 46710 96570 12820 60800 60820 36440 51920 127500 118300 33400 34600 31350 40570 175800 19540 63990 7109 26230 22770 26770 155500 23420 180300 110000 16460 40170 122300 50550 37430 39720 27690 24460 85010 19610 61430 106700 104100 34780 107200 42710 51970 117400 47960 26510 41660 42280 36390 49500 36850 35560 28580 37530 103600 40530 67100 32340 44750 14210 48550 95580 43480 27740 36900 41430 59970 35410 30530 42170 123400 38930 33560 23510 25600 69050 40100 230500 42110 26640 36380 30310 89160 46140 26810 89260 48630 26060 62510 30270 82280 31940 51810 80420 32640 33480 29230 38560 88460 51750 37010 29240 65500 99500 36510 43840 93420 55520 28800 28800 44290 14700 39740 73240 43960 34760 43460 89160 58880 136900 59060 110500 45940 271100 119300 29810 94420 34270 32820 53960 174000 74420 56440 19800 19900 190900 37340 92940 15990 32730 19220 71420 23240 27870 49970 55880 46940 52230 33010 96840 27250 19920 26510 42360 49180 38650 104900 41060 106200 43950 67260 48870 28400 31900 51910 42690 35380 137400 52290 23110 68100 76990 21120 33770 78550 104700 44030 108300 45630 19960 78390 5011 51780 26040 30490 44940 73540 87830 70430 26200 50670 57010 99420 46990 28700 52930 71110 70970 20990 65330 15070 76310 28450 24080 25370 91660 38310 28480 40720 34700 11580 13830 94780 109700 30410 31110 37550 97240 29130 38460 183900 6163 95360 51300 72010 44850 37770 23150 51040 35950 96210 23860 27490 44260 28000 127100 39940 29780 45140 38730 47640 36340 53900 80730 60380 101100 35290 51510 66150 44940 30080 29500 31220 101700 70900 86760 39740 34530 98190 30680 72260 48400 68190 72300 79600 26750 29080 38460 62450 44160 40980 29050 44080 32130 61760 42390 42900 26780 18330 105200 84020 37090 28920 36690 42720 116700 92500 89180 115200 76030 47390 34490 41110 45700 25860 39090 48890 14500 35000 38130 28300 66320 33770 49150 67020 114700 148600 39220 50640 111400 35700 58530 88240 32790 34540 37670 37730 57340 35740 30540 63870
2022-04-13 69270 76860 19320 30950 40230 35260 54190 53810 23550 80740 48160 42220 42520 66620 25790 68830 124300 89140 24630 65460 57340 39310 59720 63580 127300 80760 342100 35090 55660 48740 21180 26210 94060 20770 132300 42270 171000 48630 38240 100700 26210 40630 94350 166300 39130 107400 33260 32100 37100 32630 65370 51080 66740 42850 70940 34170 46510 102400 35970 47700 30230 46810 96830 12840 60980 60960 36540 52080 127900 118500 33480 34680 31440 40640 176500 19610 64160 7151 26250 22810 26840 156000 23500 180800 110100 16500 40260 122500 50660 37550 39790 27770 24480 85150 19670 61470 106900 104500 34890 107300 42880 52110 117600 48140 26590 41820 42410 36500 49630 36930 35730 28620 37640 103800 40590 67340 32410 44880 14240 48620 95680 43570 27790 36990 41550 60200 35540 30620 42240 123800 38950 33650 23580 25640 69260 40190 231000 42190 26730 36440 30380 89310 46240 26860 89440 48720 26110 62650 30330 82410 32000 51980 80550 32740 33560 29310 38670 88570 51920 37090 29310 65860 99700 36590 43960 93520 55680 28860 28910 44420 14710 39850 73370 44020 34830 43580 89400 58980 137200 59160 110700 46080 271700 119400 29890 94530 34340 32890 54060 174300 74520 56570 19860 19990 191300 37450 93070 16020 32810 19230 71530 23340 27940 50100 55950 47020 52360 33140 97100 27330 19950 26610 42370 49390 38750 105200 41180 106300 43970 67360 49050 28510 31980 52050 42800 35500 137800 52410 23180 68320 77280 21150 33850 78690 104800 44130 108500 45770 20020 78480 5036 51980 26050 30550 45090 73690 88100 70600 26210 50740 57150 99550 47120 28770 53060 71310 71000 21050 65400 15130 76450 28510 24120 25420 91790 38390 28540 40830 34800 11630 13860 94890 109900 30470 31240 37660 97450 29190 38540 184200 6206 95660 51390 72140 45010 37930 23200 51190 36050 96460 23940 27560 44380 28090 127600 40070 29860 45250 38800 47800 36470 54040 80930 60520 101300 35350 51620 66290 45020 30140 29570 31340 101900 71100 86900 39870 34650 98510 30750 72390 48510 68230 72480 79730 26790 29150 38580 62640 44280 41120 29150 44190 32210 61840 42470 43030 26790 18380 105400 84170 37190 28980 36710 42830 117000 92740 89310 115400 76190 47510 34540 41220 45820 25910 39170 49060 14540 35110 38210 28370 66520 33880 49350 67160 114900 149000 39330 50760 111700 35780 58720 88470 32850 34620 37680 37840 57460 35810 30630 64030
2022-04-14 69530 77170 19390 31010 40340 35400 54280 53910 23610 80860 48280 42320 42630 66800 25870 68900 124500 89390 24670 65580 57510 39430 59860 63730 127500 80860 342500 35140 55720 48820 21200 26300 94250 20810 132600 42390 171200 48740 38340 100700 26260 40640 94530 166600 39240 107600 33340 32130 37170 32690 65460 51090 66880 42970 71140 34230 46610 102500 36060 47720 30270 46900 97080 12860 61090 61090 36650 52240 128300 118700 33550 34760 31530 40720 177200 19680 64320 7186 26270 22840 26920 156600 23570 181200 110200 16550 40350 122600 50760 37670 39860 27850 24500 85290 19730 61510 107100 104900 35000 107500 43050 52240 117700 48310 26670 41980 42530 36600 49740 37000 35890 28670 37720 104000 40660 67580 32470 45000 14280 48690 95750 43650 27840 37070 41670 60400 35660 30680 42300 124300 38970 33750 23640 25680 69420 40260 232000 42260 26810 36500 30450 89430 46340 26880 89610 48800 26160 62730 30390 82520 32050 52090 80670 32830 33630 29400 38770 88680 52090 37160 29380 66210 99800 36670 44070 93630 55800 28910 29010 44540 14710 39950 73480 44070 34910 43710 89610 59060 137400 59260 111000 46190 272100 119500 29970 94640 34400 32950 54170 174500 74590 56700 19910 20040 191500 37520 93160 16050 32880 19230 71620 23420 28010 50240 56020 47090 52480 33260 97260 27400 20000 26720 42380 49550 38850 105300 41300 106400 43980 67450 49200 28610 32060 52170 42900 35600 138200 52530 23260 68530 77550 21180 33930 78830 105000 44230 108600 45890 20070 78560 5060 52090 26070 30610 45230 73840 88360 70770 26220 50800 57300 99650 47240 28830 53180 71510 71030 21100 65470 15190 76560 28570 24150 25480 91920 38490 28610 40930 34890 11670 13890 95010 110000 30530 31370 37770 97670 29240 38630 184500 6250 95960 51450 72280 45160 38080 23240 51340 36150 96700 24020 27640 44500 28160 127900 40210 29940 45360 38870 47950 36590 54150 81120 60640 101500 35400 51730 66430 45110 30190 29640 31460 102000 71290 87040 39990 34770 98810 30810 72500 48620 68250 72660 79850 26830 29220 38690 62780 44390 41250 29240 44290 32270 61910 42550 43160 26800 18430 105500 84300 37290 29030 36740 42940 117400 92960 89430 115600 76330 47640 34580 41330 45940 25970 39250 49230 14590 35170 38280 28440 66720 34000 49480 67240 115000 149500 39440 50890 112000 35850 58910 88690 32910 34710 37700 37950 57570 35890 30730 64190
2022-04-15 69770 77460 19440 31050 40440 35520 54360 54010 23650 80980 48400 42420 42730 66960 25950 68950 124700 89610 24710 65650 57670 39550 60000 63870 127700 80940 342700 35190 55780 48910 21200 26370 94410 20860 133000 42510 171300 48840 38440 100800 26300 40650 94660 167000 39350 107700 33410 32160 37240 32750 65540 51100 66960 43050 71210 34280 46710 102500 36140 47740 30290 46990 97320 12870 61160 61220 36750 52390 128500 119000 33620 34830 31620 40770 177700 19750 64480 7205 26290 22870 26980 157100 23640 181500 110300 16590 40440 122700 50820 37770 39910 27920 24500 85420 19780 61540 107300 105200 35100 107600 43210 52370 117800 48420 26750 42120 42620 36700 49820 37070 36040 28710 37770 104100 40720 67800 32530 45120 14320 48730 95800 43710 27880 37150 41780 60540 35770 30710 42350 124700 38970 33820 23690 25720 69530 40320 232400 42340 26890 36550 30520 89520 46440 26880 89780 48880 26210 62760 30450 82590 32110 52180 80780 32910 33700 29470 38870 88750 52250 37230 29450 66540 100000 36740 44180 93730 55900 28960 29080 44660 14720 40050 73550 44110 34980 43830 89730 59110 137600 59350 111100 46260 272400 119600 30040 94710 34440 33010 54260 174700 74660 56830 19940 20090 191600 37580 93230 16080 32950 19240 71690 23450 28080 50360 56080 47160 52590 33370 97390 27460 20000 26820 42390 49660 38940 105400 41340 106400 43990 67540 49290 28710 32130 52260 42990 35680 138400 52650 23320 68720 77790 21210 34000 78970 105000 44330 108700 46000 20120 78600 5082 52180 26080 30660 45370 73950 88600 70930 26230 50860 57390 99730 47360 28880 53270 71630 71050 21150 65550 15240 76640 28630 24160 25530 92040 38530 28670 41020 34980 11710 13920 95060 110100 30580 31500 37870 97860 29290 38710 184700 6293 96230 51500 72410 45290 38180 23280 51490 36240 96920 24090 27680 44610 28210 128200 40330 30010 45470 38940 48080 36700 54220 81310 60720 101600 35440 51830 66560 45190 30240 29700 31570 102100 71450 87110 40100 34870 99080 30880 72570 48720 68250 72830 79960 26870 29260 38800 62880 44500 41370 29330 44380 32310 61970 42620 43250 26810 18480 105600 84390 37380 29050 36750 43040 117700 93160 89520 115700 76420 47750 34620 41430 46060 26010 39310 49390 14640 35230 38340 28510 66910 34100 49580 67290 115200 150000 39550 51000 112300 35930 59090 88870 32970 34770 37700 38050 57680 35960 30780 64330
2022-04-16 70000 77750 19500 31100 40540 35640 54440 54100 23720 81090 48520 42510 42820 67110 26020 69000 124900 89820 24750 65720 57820 39650 60130 64010 127800 81010 343200 35250 55840 48990 21210 26450 94560 20900 133300 42630 171500 48950 38540 100900 26330 40650 94810 167300 39460 107900 33480 32190 37310 32800 65620 51100 67040 43120 71260 34330 46810 102500 36210 47760 30330 47080 97560 12880 61200 61340 36850 52540 128600 119200 33690 34910 31700 40800 178100 19810 64640 7246 26310 22900 26980 157600 23710 181800 110500 16630 40520 122800 50870 37870 39960 27990 24510 85550 19830 61570 107500 105600 35200 107800 43370 52490 117900 48510 26820 42270 42700 36800 49890 37140 36190 28760 37840 104300 40780 68020 32590 45240 14350 48780 95880 43760 27930 37220 41890 60690 35880 30740 42400 125100 38970 33900 23750 25750 69630 40380 232600 42410 26960 36610 30580 89610 46530 26880 89940 48960 26260 62790 30520 82660 32160 52240 80890 33000 33760 29540 38970 88810 52400 37300 29520 66850 100100 36810 44290 93830 55990 29010 29140 44770 14720 40140 73620 44160 35050 43950 89860 59210 137800 59440 111200 46330 272600 119700 30120 94810 34510 33070 54350 174900 74700 56950 19980 20120 191800 37620 93340 16110 33030 19240 71750 23490 28140 50490 56140 47230 52700 33470 97470 27530 20000 26920 42400 49750 39030 105500 41390 106500 44010 67630 49420 28800 32210 52340 43080 35740 138700 52770 23390 68910 78010 21240 34070 79100 105200 44440 108800 46110 20160 78670 5103 52240 26090 30700 45510 74030 88840 71080 26240 50920 57460 99790 47470 28940 53330 71760 71070 21200 65620 15280 76710 28690 24190 25580 92160 38570 28730 41110 35070 11750 13950 95180 110300 30630 31620 37970 98050 29340 38790 184900 6336 96500 51540 72540 45430 38270 23330 51620 36330 97140 24170 27710 44720 28250 128500 40460 30080 45570 39000 48220 36810 54290 81490 60780 101700 35470 51940 66690 45270 30290 29770 31680 102200 71610 87270 40210 34980 99330 30940 72650 48820 68250 73000 80070 26900 29300 38910 62960 44600 41490 29410 44480 32350 62030 42700 43320 26820 18530 105700 84470 37470 29110 36750 43130 118000 93340 89570 115900 76500 47870 34670 41540 46160 26040 39360 49540 14680 35310 38380 28570 67090 34200 49660 67330 115300 150400 39650 51120 112500 36010 59260 89050 33030 34840 37700 38150 57780 36040 30830 64470

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-04-10 to 2022-04-16

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-04-09 68125 75408 19041 30712 39744 34638 53801 53376 23216 80265 47630 41787 42069 65847 25431 68407 123388 87917 24429 64851 56585 38698 59083 62875 126327 80135 340044 34850 55393 48347 21113 25765 93133 20569 130890 41686 169991 48166 37771 100227 26014 40572 93636 164553 38642 106455 32918 31892 36761 32332 64966 51035 65826 42211 70353 33922 46090 102104 35586 47571 30111 46385 95722 12750 60325 60369 36082 51360 126134 117445 33163 34367 31056 40329 173245 19305 63427 6955 26135 22654 26407 153543 23180 177966 109479 16294 39862 121826 50194 36982 39455 27417 24392 84567 19405 61281 106026 102842 34421 106686 42157 51536 116830 47207 26258 41103 41734 36043 49023 36596 35009 28421 37230 103034 40312 66323 32113 44334 14085 48300 95199 43218 27585 36627 41022 59037 35005 30350 41933 121884 38841 33289 23308 25472 68122 39861 228348 41852 26362 36191 30089 88619 45836 26765 88669 48347 25900 62162 30062 81801 31756 51398 79997 32344 33202 28919 38213 88041 51158 36783 28997 64254 98976 36257 43471 93087 55022 28605 28350 43879 14671 39362 72739 43780 34509 43050 88072 58659 136154 58723 109979 45483 269563 118773 29534 94047 34055 32598 53591 172971 74078 56006 19593 19631 190293 37078 92416 15899 32500 19194 70986 22958 27686 49503 55639 46682 51780 32602 96138 26988 19875 26171 42318 48476 38300 104277 40724 105749 43882 66912 48082 28050 31643 51269 42344 34945 135639 51884 22886 67393 75937 21009 33523 78109 104030 43718 107925 45155 19760 78079 4923 51287 25976 30273 44477 72992 86894 69860 26152 50464 56249 98975 46544 28498 52429 70358 70833 20780 65081 14869 75679 28237 23974 25193 91213 38093 28264 40390 34377 11409 13724 94283 108741 30231 30667 37163 96511 28963 38194 183081 6025 94374 51051 71555 44343 37236 22999 50552 35640 95393 23606 27242 43855 27726 125305 39506 29514 44736 38497 47127 35907 53281 80070 59891 100462 35077 51156 65650 44672 29909 29284 30836 101119 70206 86182 39319 34136 97070 30459 71774 48039 68107 71706 79175 26609 28823 38069 61913 43772 40524 28728 43750 31847 61505 42135 42418 26735 18164 104560 83474 36747 28716 36594 42341 115394 91637 88621 114671 75489 46993 34340 40749 45310 25694 38767 48311 14331 34588 37811 28074 65688 33396 48703 66693 114189 146880 38867 50237 110447 35441 57887 87398 32592 34273 37608 37381 56945 35488 30268 63296
2022-04-10 68290 75620 19080 30780 39820 34700 53870 53470 23280 80340 47720 41850 42150 65980 25490 68470 123600 88060 24480 64930 56690 38770 59200 62970 126500 80230 340500 34920 55450 48420 21120 25820 93250 20610 131100 41760 170200 48260 37850 100300 26040 40570 93740 164800 38730 106600 32960 31920 36820 32370 65050 51040 65960 42300 70410 34000 46160 102100 35640 47570 30140 46440 95900 12760 60410 60450 36160 51460 126400 117600 33230 34430 31110 40380 173700 19350 63540 6998 26130 22700 26450 153900 23240 178400 109700 16320 39920 121900 50270 37040 39510 27470 24390 84740 19450 61350 106200 103100 34490 106800 42280 51630 117000 47330 26330 41200 41840 36120 49100 36700 35110 28460 37290 103200 40410 66480 32160 44410 14120 48360 95280 43260 27630 36690 41110 59190 35100 30400 41990 122200 38850 33350 23350 25550 68270 39920 228700 41920 26420 36230 30130 88720 45920 26750 88770 48420 25970 62220 30120 81890 31800 51490 80080 32410 33260 28960 38290 88130 51270 36830 29040 64490 99100 36320 43550 93180 55140 28640 28420 43950 14670 39440 72850 43820 34560 43150 88240 58720 136300 58790 110100 45560 269900 118900 29590 94120 34120 32640 53670 173200 74170 56100 19640 19680 190400 37140 92550 15930 32570 19200 71080 23000 27750 49600 55690 46740 51870 32680 96320 27040 19880 26260 42330 48600 38360 104400 40790 105900 43880 66980 48190 28130 31710 51400 42420 35020 136000 51980 22940 67540 76120 21050 33580 78210 104200 43800 108000 45250 19790 78150 4940 51380 25970 30310 44600 73100 87070 69970 26150 50520 56350 99080 46640 28540 52510 70500 70850 20820 65180 14910 75790 28280 24000 25240 91370 38160 28310 40440 34440 11440 13760 94390 108900 30310 30760 37230 96640 29010 38260 183300 6061 94570 51100 71670 44450 37350 23030 50670 35720 95550 23660 27290 43930 27780 125600 39600 29570 44830 38550 47250 36000 53390 80210 59990 100600 35120 51230 65720 44790 29980 29340 30920 101300 70330 86370 39390 34210 97280 30500 71880 48110 68110 71850 79270 26650 28860 38170 62020 43860 40600 28780 43820 31900 61560 42200 42500 26740 18210 104700 83590 36810 28760 36590 42420 115600 91760 88720 114800 75620 47080 34380 40830 45400 25730 38820 48420 14370 34670 37870 28120 65850 33470 48800 66770 114300 147200 38950 50330 110600 35490 58010 87530 32630 34330 37610 37460 57030 35560 30330 63390
2022-04-11 68550 75930 19130 30890 39960 34830 53960 53600 23390 80440 47870 41980 42270 66190 25610 68580 123800 88340 24560 65080 56890 38910 59340 63150 126700 80430 341300 35020 55530 48540 21140 25930 93490 20660 131600 41900 170600 48400 37970 100500 26100 40590 93990 165100 38860 106900 33060 31980 36940 32440 65210 51070 66150 42460 70590 34120 46300 102200 35740 47600 30180 46500 96180 12780 60580 60600 36260 51650 126800 118000 33320 34530 31220 40470 174500 19420 63730 7049 26160 22770 26520 154500 23320 179000 110000 16380 40020 122200 50410 37160 39610 27550 24420 85010 19530 61420 106400 103500 34620 107100 42460 51780 117200 47560 26410 41360 41980 36250 49280 36860 35290 28530 37420 103600 40560 66750 32240 44550 14150 48460 95460 43360 27700 36780 41260 59430 35230 30510 42060 122700 38870 33460 23420 25650 68510 40010 229400 42030 26500 36310 30210 88930 46030 26780 88960 48540 26070 62370 30210 82060 31870 51670 80260 32500 33340 29050 38430 88320 51470 36930 29140 64840 99300 36430 43670 93360 55320 28700 28530 44090 14690 39640 73040 43920 34630 43300 88540 58850 136700 58930 110300 45700 270500 119200 29680 94350 34250 32740 53770 173600 74290 56280 19710 19770 190800 37250 92800 15960 32660 19220 71260 23100 27840 49740 55750 46820 52010 32810 96550 27120 19910 26370 42340 48830 38480 104700 40920 106100 43920 67060 48400 28230 31800 51580 42550 35140 136400 52160 23030 67740 76420 21110 33670 78380 104600 43930 108200 45390 19850 78300 4966 51530 26000 30380 44750 73260 87390 70180 26170 50620 56580 99270 46790 28630 52660 70730 70890 20880 65320 14970 75960 28340 24050 25310 91660 38260 28380 40580 34550 11480 13820 94620 109100 30420 30910 37360 96910 29100 38360 183900 6107 94900 51200 71840 44640 37520 23090 50840 35830 95800 23750 27380 44060 27870 126100 39750 29660 44990 38650 47410 36150 53540 80430 60130 100800 35210 51380 65890 44960 30090 29420 31050 101500 70530 86680 39520 34320 97610 30580 72070 48250 68140 72050 79450 26740 28960 38320 62230 44020 40750 28870 43960 31970 61670 42320 42670 26760 18290 104900 83800 36950 28850 36630 42570 116000 92030 88910 115000 75820 47220 34440 40960 45550 25800 38930 48590 14410 34790 37960 28210 66100 33580 48990 66910 114600 147700 39080 50480 110900 35590 58210 87790 32730 34450 37640 37580 57210 35650 30440 63590
2022-04-12 68780 76250 19180 30990 40070 34960 54050 53710 23500 80550 47990 42090 42380 66360 25720 68680 124100 88580 24640 65190 57060 39030 59480 63300 126900 80600 342000 35110 55600 48660 21150 26010 93680 20710 131900 42020 170900 48530 38080 100600 26140 40610 94210 165500 38980 107100 33140 32030 37030 32500 65340 51090 66320 42610 70770 34220 46420 102200 35830 47620 30230 46560 96430 12800 60720 60730 36360 51790 127200 118300 33400 34620 31310 40560 175200 19490 63900 7099 26180 22840 26570 154900 23390 179500 110200 16420 40100 122400 50520 37280 39690 27630 24440 85240 19600 61490 106700 103800 34720 107400 42650 51930 117400 47740 26490 41500 42130 36360 49410 37000 35440 28580 37540 103900 40690 66970 32310 44700 14190 48550 95630 43460 27760 36870 41380 59680 35340 30590 42130 123200 38880 33560 23470 25730 68710 40100 230200 42110 26580 36370 30290 89130 46140 26790 89110 48640 26160 62480 30280 82220 31930 51810 80410 32590 33410 29140 38540 88470 51650 37010 29220 65170 99500 36530 43780 93520 55460 28750 28670 44200 14700 39780 73200 44000 34700 43420 88780 58970 137000 59030 110500 45820 271000 119400 29760 94530 34360 32820 53870 173900 74410 56430 19750 19840 191000 37350 93010 15990 32740 19240 71400 23180 27910 49870 55810 46890 52130 32940 96770 27200 19930 26480 42360 49020 38580 104900 41040 106200 43940 67140 48590 28330 31890 51740 42670 35250 136800 52300 23120 67910 76690 21160 33750 78520 104900 44060 108400 45520 19910 78430 4989 51660 26030 30430 44910 73420 87660 70360 26180 50690 56750 99420 46920 28700 52790 70940 70920 20930 65450 15020 76100 28400 24100 25370 91890 38370 28450 40690 34650 11520 13870 94800 109300 30510 31050 37460 97140 29180 38460 184300 6153 95190 51270 72000 44790 37690 23140 51000 35940 96030 23830 27460 44190 27950 126500 39890 29730 45120 38740 47550 36270 53660 80640 60270 101000 35290 51500 66030 45120 30190 29500 31170 101700 70710 86930 39640 34410 97900 30660 72230 48360 68170 72230 79600 26820 29040 38450 62400 44160 40880 28950 44070 32040 61770 42400 42790 26780 18370 105100 83980 37070 28950 36640 42710 116300 92270 89070 115200 76000 47340 34510 41060 45670 25850 39020 48740 14450 34900 38040 28280 66330 33690 49150 67040 114800 148200 39200 50610 111200 35670 58390 88020 32810 34530 37650 37690 57360 35740 30540 63750
2022-04-13 69040 76550 19230 31080 40180 35070 54130 53820 23590 80650 48100 42200 42480 66530 25810 68780 124300 88790 24700 65300 57240 39150 59610 63440 127100 80770 342600 35200 55660 48770 21160 26080 93850 20760 132300 42140 171200 48640 38190 100800 26190 40620 94400 165800 39100 107300 33240 32080 37120 32550 65470 51110 66480 42740 70920 34320 46540 102200 35920 47650 30270 46620 96660 12810 60870 60860 36450 51930 127500 118500 33480 34710 31390 40650 175800 19560 64040 7143 26200 22900 26620 155400 23460 180000 110400 16460 40180 122600 50650 37370 39780 27690 24450 85480 19660 61560 106900 104200 34830 107600 42820 52090 117600 47910 26560 41630 42260 36450 49520 37120 35570 28640 37660 104200 40800 67170 32390 44820 14230 48640 95780 43560 27810 36970 41510 59880 35440 30680 42190 123600 38890 33660 23530 25800 68910 40180 230800 42200 26650 36440 30360 89300 46250 26810 89270 48740 26250 62610 30360 82360 31990 51970 80570 32670 33480 29210 38650 88610 51820 37080 29290 65460 99700 36630 43880 93680 55620 28800 28760 44310 14710 39910 73350 44080 34770 43550 89000 59090 137300 59130 110700 45940 271600 119500 29830 94690 34460 32890 53960 174200 74530 56560 19820 19920 191300 37460 93200 16020 32830 19250 71530 23270 27980 49990 55870 46960 52240 33050 96980 27270 19950 26580 42370 49210 38670 105100 41170 106400 43950 67220 48760 28420 31980 51880 42780 35360 137200 52450 23200 68080 76920 21220 33830 78660 105200 44180 108600 45640 19950 78540 5011 51810 26050 30470 45060 73550 87930 70520 26190 50770 56890 99590 47030 28770 52900 71120 70940 20990 65580 15070 76230 28450 24150 25440 92110 38470 28510 40780 34740 11560 13920 94960 109500 30610 31190 37550 97340 29250 38540 184700 6202 95460 51350 72150 44940 37840 23190 51150 36040 96250 23900 27530 44300 28020 127000 40020 29800 45240 38810 47710 36390 53780 80830 60400 101200 35360 51610 66180 45270 30280 29560 31280 101900 70880 87140 39750 34510 98160 30740 72360 48460 68190 72410 79750 26890 29090 38570 62590 44300 40980 29020 44190 32100 61860 42500 42900 26800 18430 105300 84140 37170 29020 36660 42830 116600 92470 89200 115400 76170 47460 34570 41180 45790 25900 39090 48880 14490 35000 38110 28350 66580 33790 49330 67180 115000 148600 39320 50730 111500 35750 58560 88220 32880 34610 37660 37800 57520 35820 30630 63940
2022-04-14 69260 76840 19270 31170 40280 35180 54210 53920 23680 80750 48220 42300 42580 66700 25890 68880 124600 88980 24780 65430 57400 39250 59740 63590 127200 80910 343300 35280 55740 48870 21160 26170 94020 20800 132600 42250 171500 48750 38300 100900 26240 40640 94600 166100 39210 107600 33310 32140 37220 32610 65600 51130 66670 42870 71130 34410 46660 102300 35990 47670 30310 46690 96910 12820 61000 60990 36540 52080 127900 118800 33550 34800 31500 40730 176500 19620 64200 7188 26220 22950 26680 155800 23530 180500 110700 16520 40250 122900 50770 37480 39860 27760 24470 85710 19720 61620 107100 104500 34930 107900 42990 52220 117800 48050 26640 41760 42380 36570 49640 37250 35690 28700 37760 104500 40940 67370 32460 44940 14260 48730 95940 43640 27870 37060 41650 60090 35550 30770 42250 124000 38900 33760 23580 25870 69080 40250 231600 42280 26720 36500 30420 89460 46340 26840 89430 48850 26350 62720 30430 82490 32050 52100 80720 32750 33550 29280 38750 88750 51970 37170 29350 65740 99900 36730 43990 93840 55760 28850 28860 44420 14730 40030 73480 44150 34830 43670 89270 59190 137500 59250 110900 46050 272100 119700 29910 94860 34570 32970 54050 174500 74640 56740 19860 19970 191600 37540 93370 16050 32910 19260 71650 23340 28050 50110 55930 47030 52350 33160 97190 27330 19990 26690 42380 49360 38760 105300 41280 106600 43980 67300 48920 28510 32070 52020 42890 35460 137600 52620 23290 68250 77150 21270 33910 78790 105600 44310 108700 45760 19990 78670 5033 51920 26060 30530 45210 73710 88230 70690 26210 50850 57070 99730 47150 28840 53010 71320 70960 21040 65710 15130 76360 28500 24190 25500 92340 38570 28570 40910 34830 11590 13960 95160 109700 30690 31320 37650 97520 29340 38640 185200 6250 95740 51430 72290 45080 37970 23240 51310 36140 96460 23970 27630 44420 28090 127300 40150 29860 45380 38900 47860 36500 53910 81020 60520 101400 35430 51730 66310 45410 30370 29620 31400 102100 71040 87400 39850 34600 98410 30810 72500 48580 68210 72580 79890 26960 29150 38690 62740 44430 41100 29090 44320 32160 61950 42610 43020 26820 18500 105500 84290 37270 29080 36680 42950 116900 92700 89340 115600 76340 47580 34640 41280 45910 25960 39180 49030 14530 35080 38190 28430 66770 33890 49470 67300 115300 149000 39420 50850 111700 35830 58730 88410 32970 34710 37680 37910 57660 35900 30720 64100
2022-04-15 69460 77110 19320 31250 40370 35300 54290 54010 23760 80860 48330 42400 42670 66840 25970 68960 124800 89170 24840 65520 57550 39360 59880 63730 127400 81050 343900 35360 55800 48980 21170 26250 94190 20840 133000 42350 171800 48860 38380 101100 26290 40650 94780 166400 39330 107800 33380 32190 37300 32660 65700 51140 66810 42960 71280 34490 46780 102300 36070 47680 30360 46750 97130 12830 61100 61110 36630 52220 128200 119100 33640 34880 31590 40800 177000 19670 64340 7228 26240 23010 26730 156200 23600 180900 110900 16550 40340 123100 50860 37570 39930 27820 24480 85920 19780 61680 107300 104800 35020 108100 43150 52340 118000 48180 26710 41880 42490 36660 49730 37370 35820 28750 37840 104800 41050 67540 32530 45050 14290 48810 96070 43720 27920 37130 41740 60270 35650 30830 42300 124400 38910 33840 23640 25940 69250 40340 232300 42360 26790 36570 30500 89610 46450 26860 89580 48940 26430 62820 30500 82610 32100 52220 80860 32830 33610 29330 38850 88870 52140 37240 29410 66000 100100 36820 44100 93990 55890 28890 28950 44510 14760 40140 73620 44210 34900 43790 89490 59290 137800 59340 111100 46140 272600 119900 29980 95020 34670 33040 54130 174800 74750 56880 19890 20030 191900 37630 93530 16080 32990 19270 71780 23400 28120 50230 55990 47100 52460 33260 97390 27400 20000 26800 42390 49500 38850 105500 41370 106700 43990 67370 49080 28600 32150 52130 42970 35560 137900 52750 23370 68400 77390 21320 33990 78910 105800 44420 108900 45860 20040 78770 5054 52030 26060 30570 45360 73850 88480 70840 26210 50920 57240 99870 47250 28900 53110 71500 70980 21090 65830 15170 76470 28560 24220 25560 92550 38650 28630 41000 34920 11620 14000 95310 109900 30780 31440 37730 97700 29400 38720 185500 6296 95990 51500 72440 45220 38100 23290 51450 36240 96660 24040 27700 44530 28140 127700 40270 29930 45490 38980 47990 36610 54010 81190 60610 101500 35500 51840 66430 45540 30470 29690 31480 102200 71190 87640 39960 34690 98640 30880 72630 48680 68220 72750 80030 27010 29210 38800 62910 44550 41210 29170 44430 32210 62030 42700 43120 26830 18570 105600 84430 37380 29150 36690 43050 117200 92880 89470 115800 76470 47710 34700 41380 46030 26010 39250 49160 14570 35160 38260 28490 66960 33970 49600 67400 115500 149400 39530 50970 111900 35900 58890 88590 33040 34790 37690 38020 57790 35980 30800 64230
2022-04-16 69640 77330 19350 31340 40440 35390 54370 54100 23810 80960 48420 42480 42740 66960 26040 69030 125000 89400 24880 65590 57670 39470 60010 63840 127600 81150 344400 35430 55860 49070 21180 26310 94350 20880 133200 42450 172100 48950 38460 101200 26330 40660 94910 166600 39440 107900 33440 32220 37390 32700 65810 51150 66930 43040 71370 34590 46870 102400 36150 47690 30390 46820 97320 12840 61180 61210 36730 52330 128400 119300 33710 34960 31670 40850 177400 19720 64460 7271 26250 23070 26760 156500 23670 181400 111100 16590 40410 123200 50950 37660 39980 27870 24480 86120 19830 61740 107500 105100 35100 108400 43280 52440 118200 48280 26770 41990 42580 36740 49790 37490 35930 28790 37920 105100 41130 67700 32580 45150 14330 48880 96200 43770 27960 37200 41830 60430 35730 30890 42360 124800 38910 33910 23690 26010 69440 40410 232600 42420 26860 36620 30570 89740 46540 26860 89700 49010 26510 62890 30570 82720 32140 52310 80990 32910 33680 29380 38930 88970 52300 37310 29460 66200 100300 36910 44200 94130 56010 28930 29010 44590 14760 40230 73740 44260 34960 43900 89710 59360 138100 59420 111300 46220 273000 120100 30040 95140 34770 33100 54210 175000 74830 57000 19930 20070 192000 37710 93680 16110 33070 19280 71860 23460 28170 50330 56040 47170 52560 33350 97540 27460 20010 26900 42400 49610 38920 105700 41460 106800 44000 67450 49210 28690 32230 52260 43050 35640 138100 52870 23440 68530 77590 21360 34070 79020 106100 44520 109000 45960 20080 78890 5075 52130 26070 30620 45510 73950 88660 70970 26220 50980 57370 99980 47370 28960 53200 71640 71000 21120 65950 15220 76600 28600 24260 25610 92740 38730 28690 41070 34990 11650 14040 95470 110100 30870 31530 37810 97850 29470 38790 185900 6339 96230 51560 72580 45330 38200 23340 51580 36330 96830 24090 27760 44620 28180 127900 40370 30000 45590 39040 48110 36720 54140 81350 60690 101600 35560 51920 66520 45690 30540 29740 31560 102400 71370 87830 40050 34780 98930 30940 72730 48770 68230 72930 80160 27080 29240 38890 63060 44660 41290 29240 44510 32260 62100 42770 43180 26830 18630 105800 84540 37460 29220 36690 43130 117500 93090 89580 116000 76610 47830 34750 41460 46120 26050 39320 49280 14610 35220 38310 28550 67110 34050 49690 67460 115700 149700 39620 51060 112100 35970 59030 88780 33110 34860 37690 38100 57900 36040 30870 64330

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.