COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-04-12 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-04-12

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-04-12

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-172022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-282022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-172022-01-242022-03-152022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-03-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062022-03-172022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-142022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-152022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-03-162022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-162022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-282022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-162022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-152022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-162022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 1126 1275 1525 804 437 780 1774 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 3477 390 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 2285 1199 3307 17521 1550 3317 2250 319 93 4696 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 79 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 1302 2002 2935 611 188 1143 2214 1302 1418 254 1362 120 1222 456 3005 192 2422 2091 1033 1466 3801 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7754 684 1939 121 60 774 995 3960 513 7900 4326 68 1426 5019 1559 1550 1634 862 267 3466 481 896 4767 2335 1159 295 2036 1878 4677 1747 663 1048 1254 885 1468 1093 1560 891 1505 3182 151 1625 976 1274 417 1353 3625 1652 982 1189 1007 2291 930 917 560 6120 104 1022 779 101 2871 1519 6944 1464 847 1510 1137 3360 1261 78 3318 2105 114 2104 1115 3254 1188 1498 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 1707 1188 1044 2486 3914 1327 1158 3872 1474 1689 886 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 3609 2021 6117 181 4514 1732 821 6320 803 3519 132 1238 694 9205 3848 1963 580 540 10177 1515 3625 516 696 246 2554 144 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1347 3381 825 64 1495 532 1263 1329 4887 1519 5335 106 1141 1531 659 963 1941 1111 1060 3559 215 525 1868 288 835 128 2965 429 1403 268 1790 839 4269 264 1562 85 1808 2223 3085 2613 2589 75 2466 192 4529 2322 1065 1632 1804 1026 776 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 4307 139 892 1297 1206 259 344 4748 209 951 1365 1073 4438 857 1175 8405 632 3240 2347 2862 1130 1408 768 1599 143 2982 587 863 1470 763 4031 1059 875 1101 1609 1007 123 2510 3022 2379 4073 1253 1583 221 1783 1077 992 1278 3842 3631 284 194 929 4460 904 2652 1725 118 2290 3757 91 844 990 2555 1394 1055 812 1551 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 102 1143 5037 239 3811 4283 2987 1563 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 808 1620 922 2543 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 230 1188 796 94 1077 2155 1437 1060 2087
Days since peak 65 65 78 78 78 65 78 106 65 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 21 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 105 21 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 26 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 105 21 78 78 78 78 26 78 28 78 104 78 104 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 65 65 78 65 28 78 78 78 78 78 78 21 78 78 78 78 78 78 104 78 78 104 78 78 78 20 65 65 78 65 78 78 65 78 78 78 65 78 65 78 20 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 65 78 78 104 65 26 78 78 21 78 78 49 78 78 78 78 78 78 29 78 78 16 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 65 78 78 78 78 78 78 65 78 105 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 21 78 78 21 78 78 78 21 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 106 78 21 78 78 78 78 78 65 78 78 22 65 104 78 78 78 78 78 28 78 65 78 78 78 78 78 49 21 78 78 21 78 21 78 21 78 21 78 78 78 65 78 27 78 65 78 78 78 27 78 21 78 78 78 78 49 106 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 21 78 78 78 78 78 78 15 78 65 78 78 78 78 78 65 78 78 78 78 65 78 78 20 78 78 78 78 78 65 78 78 78 78 78 17 78 78 78 78 78 78 18 78 78 78 65 78 78 16 21 78 78 78 78 78 27 78 78 21 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 104 78 78 78 78 78 28 78 78 20 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 49 78 78 65 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 78 21 78 78 27 78 78 78 78 78
Last total 68743 76177 19130 30908 40013 34921 54000 53683 23458 80396 47869 41979 42292 66196 25609 68566 123866 88247 24536 65158 56909 38906 59393 63145 126780 80426 341171 34997 55564 48549 21142 25898 93400 20684 131580 41924 170510 48415 38005 100526 26125 40626 94054 165247 38898 106880 33070 32021 36949 32421 65207 51099 66148 42488 70683 34103 46374 102250 35772 47640 30253 46584 96166 12768 60584 60642 36295 51679 126996 118023 33347 34553 31236 40507 174908 19450 63769 7163 26189 22765 26510 154617 23349 178917 109895 16397 40033 122274 50432 37198 39615 27577 24429 85008 19553 61445 106484 103570 34629 107233 42621 51898 117237 47568 26434 41413 42068 36315 49247 36935 35406 28576 37490 103712 40527 66792 32247 44614 14182 48470 95459 43369 27692 36847 41318 59582 35288 30519 42044 123008 38867 33485 23445 25597 68511 40029 229968 42013 26559 36321 30235 88943 46112 26800 88903 48513 26083 62391 30245 82069 31892 51682 80251 32541 33327 29075 38479 88339 51476 36945 29161 65086 99343 36456 43723 93394 55315 28690 28587 44130 14700 39595 73070 43945 34685 43314 88517 58901 136683 58943 110337 45698 270594 119142 29726 94352 34284 32776 53813 173542 74239 56292 19677 19783 190840 37286 92772 15985 32724 19216 71263 23145 27893 49809 55730 46879 52021 32912 96550 27143 19920 26414 42373 48806 38492 104781 40978 105994 43958 67097 48448 28280 31850 51636 42562 35177 136645 52235 23096 67802 76328 21092 33675 78407 104612 43944 108278 45373 19863 78284 4986 51567 26068 30366 44916 73312 87380 70220 26202 50662 56586 99206 46737 28641 52644 70857 70935 20860 65357 14937 75916 28406 24068 25362 91666 38312 28387 40612 34555 11483 13796 94605 109145 30401 30992 37363 96975 29118 38380 183846 6189 94926 51179 71877 44642 37568 23103 50908 35857 95877 23773 27403 44081 27863 126213 39791 29684 45025 38665 47448 36090 53534 80495 60212 100821 35213 51402 65917 44969 30062 29429 31152 101581 70470 86660 39608 34337 97573 30624 72036 48264 68203 72093 79446 26743 29000 38333 62213 44080 40761 28882 43980 31969 61736 42321 42674 26796 18351 104859 83851 36938 28857 36662 42622 115868 92046 88894 115109 75847 47291 34494 40959 45566 25812 38938 48631 14423 34845 37966 28278 66264 33613 49082 66956 114610 147830 39139 50501 110921 35655 58262 87769 32749 34487 37672 37601 57236 35635 30459 63651
Last daily increment 153 244 28 46 89 82 72 104 72 57 76 54 76 120 47 45 132 102 27 80 105 73 118 88 152 79 312 43 56 76 2 39 68 27 175 64 157 82 73 72 29 12 122 196 72 127 56 27 66 34 69 14 119 88 119 48 83 25 55 8 27 65 133 2 85 76 68 89 237 157 55 50 57 60 534 51 96 62 10 26 27 322 44 294 137 19 53 121 80 64 44 39 6 115 36 42 131 181 70 150 150 129 140 111 49 91 99 85 62 92 127 50 69 208 70 140 27 115 28 42 91 38 33 49 87 160 76 51 44 363 8 42 39 40 121 64 492 39 42 33 39 99 75 4 69 51 64 75 51 72 33 99 74 37 32 41 81 66 93 55 42 236 98 53 84 85 91 27 85 74 5 64 88 50 55 77 137 70 163 75 94 73 286 109 64 88 66 59 75 174 50 78 27 50 188 51 114 17 98 8 75 55 67 95 36 76 74 100 112 52 9 78 9 102 49 146 104 59 10 70 114 84 69 93 59 72 298 92 59 114 116 31 54 93 163 57 110 67 34 66 9 79 1 31 129 90 140 110 4 48 110 52 68 36 47 162 21 23 87 20 60 36 35 52 144 66 38 65 51 21 20 97 111 55 107 62 127 45 59 230 61 163 32 103 89 100 34 109 56 145 54 40 67 42 253 101 50 87 50 114 46 75 149 74 99 43 73 79 98 56 49 90 120 97 151 91 62 136 48 74 76 14 108 82 30 55 78 98 87 83 42 69 40 46 49 78 5 40 82 116 46 54 6 74 146 95 83 116 96 90 44 59 74 29 55 94 32 81 44 63 201 61 129 72 114 284 100 72 135 87 100 99 44 72 19 58 95 48 46 123
Last week 1068 1314 180 326 465 490 379 586 428 405 489 361 429 692 329 289 901 672 226 495 657 390 593 534 904 544 2005 298 313 393 36 254 489 216 1369 423 974 485 443 507 202 66 784 1293 502 846 295 227 348 183 423 75 578 522 552 324 537 166 343 81 234 377 907 21 506 526 386 573 1522 1120 335 359 370 356 2966 285 651 336 64 199 189 2004 325 1788 800 178 316 825 441 399 306 291 43 817 284 309 828 1468 418 937 876 646 722 682 350 569 602 530 448 552 653 299 474 1253 412 913 256 529 179 349 494 314 236 378 532 952 517 304 223 2112 34 431 242 274 668 344 2874 319 341 248 270 618 482 46 498 337 356 390 348 491 268 545 506 374 231 249 450 542 628 319 292 1440 718 368 478 586 561 162 459 476 33 461 560 314 306 509 831 439 930 384 655 433 1974 642 359 623 436 311 420 1052 353 575 172 266 976 377 696 175 408 28 512 315 411 590 205 352 396 528 830 281 48 475 68 649 372 875 426 480 82 381 676 446 372 612 412 437 1795 645 392 814 727 161 324 523 1115 483 628 413 172 387 97 516 96 167 779 573 953 652 68 340 620 464 408 252 426 890 129 158 536 158 432 286 165 278 754 403 229 429 335 145 156 597 695 315 621 369 835 273 366 1582 306 1077 240 629 558 614 183 677 438 900 341 272 438 285 1683 548 326 565 305 627 389 437 837 532 633 262 446 500 538 310 276 557 835 522 918 498 408 970 315 507 408 125 744 481 229 297 542 588 544 457 277 433 227 366 397 502 65 334 560 684 386 267 85 506 956 724 514 825 682 533 259 411 496 224 309 616 203 495 286 355 1018 425 674 490 772 1852 487 507 882 351 723 632 287 381 78 457 534 318 360 635
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-14 --2022-01-242021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-20 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-06-062021-07-162021-10-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-142021-10-192022-01-242021-08-052021-07-16 -- --2021-12-282021-07-152021-12-292021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-10-18 --2021-07-142021-10-18 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012021-07-152021-11-032021-12-282021-07-14 --2021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-132021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2022-01-242021-08-242021-06-29 --2021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302021-06-052022-01-24 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-07-142021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-062021-12-282021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-122021-07-142021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-12-282021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-172021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162021-07-152021-07-152021-10-142021-09-02 -- --2021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-142022-01-242021-07-152021-07-162022-01-24 --2021-07-112021-07-162022-01-242021-07-29 -- -- --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-292021-08-182021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-122021-09-15 --2021-07-142021-07-112021-07-15 --2021-12-27 --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 -- --2021-12-272022-01-24 --2021-10-182022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-08-032022-01-242021-07-16 --2021-07-15 --2021-06-292021-12-28 --2021-06-29 --2021-07-15 --2021-12-30 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192021-06-062021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-16 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152022-01-242021-07-142021-09-012021-08-17 -- --2021-07-162021-07-16 --2021-07-14 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-07-152021-08-17 -- --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-142021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-10-182021-07-152022-01-24 --2021-08-172021-07-152021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-172021-07-142021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- --2022-01-242021-07-142021-07-152021-12-28 --2021-07-152021-07-142021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 4581 276 70 139 152 144 287 379 176 943 127 159 126 962 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 508 218 621 4 258 94 72 97 74 160 249 2895 72 159 1131 115 528 101 227 67 170 203 269 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 142 21 403 114 708 607 376 551 101 229 122 140 92 86 64 202 400 4687 137 188 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 15 1563 61 22 105 58 110 128 185 88 171 421 482 67 56 884 274 123 941 95 63 113 163 323 229 817 156 152 61 65 146 54 151 87 82 90 203 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 247 316 3336 301 117 11029 51 213 1176 99 120 41 47 448 96 169 40 164 72 503 101 274 115 49 189 31 184 116 384 105 518 164 123 94 256 1294 1824 291 2931 77 1179 3811 87 5264 158 255 143 291 118 343 315 2199 297 114 289 268 40 140 67 213 75 73 49 1311 116 70 253 5886 94 78 123 96 482 169 277 202 118 49 1218 345 86 85 470 128 68 77 92 106 1377 303 200 152 243 70 131 3012 87 77 91 243 339 3812 1010 201 428 57 145 101 890 329 219 968 143 137 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 422 79 352 4407 157 313 195 144 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 4157 99 63 397 117 120 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 59 18 163 103 28 53 51 54 99 179 71 406 33 65 31 21 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 28 83 100 2 100 38 34 44 31 68 97 43 35 58 99 22 56 21 92 25 46 68 129 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 64 5 29 25 227 190 143 19 39 112 49 43 39 41 32 63 142 85 56 26 58 49 49 57 36 30 35 6 49 25 7 38 23 49 44 80 41 67 199 36 29 19 22 75 54 199 21 30 40 76 22 57 39 54 75 27 32 32 18 70 38 41 37 59 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 107 143 49 74 44 269 20 66 41 43 51 17 14 164 48 77 11 75 30 58 36 58 32 24 22 2 75 54 120 38 32 54 61 39 68 157 44 115 99 22 32 136 42 108 50 87 51 29 19 108 22 86 49 51 68 125 18 61 17 69 20 21 17 54 56 25 104 56 38 28 40 33 189 80 91 64 40 22 46 58 34 40 149 59 28 35 35 42 33 55 94 56 65 34 49 48 36 27 38 118 78 78 79 62 96 24 64 24 56 103 85 22 34 55 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 40 36 172 68 70 94 86 69 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 58 28 31 28 52 43 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-04-13 to 2022-04-19

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-04-12 68743 76177 19130 30908 40013 34921 54000 53683 23458 80396 47869 41979 42292 66196 25609 68566 123866 88247 24536 65158 56909 38906 59393 63145 126780 80426 341171 34997 55564 48549 21142 25898 93400 20684 131580 41924 170510 48415 38005 100526 26125 40626 94054 165247 38898 106880 33070 32021 36949 32421 65207 51099 66148 42488 70683 34103 46374 102250 35772 47640 30253 46584 96166 12768 60584 60642 36295 51679 126996 118023 33347 34553 31236 40507 174908 19450 63769 7163 26189 22765 26510 154617 23349 178917 109895 16397 40033 122274 50432 37198 39615 27577 24429 85008 19553 61445 106484 103570 34629 107233 42621 51898 117237 47568 26434 41413 42068 36315 49247 36935 35406 28576 37490 103712 40527 66792 32247 44614 14182 48470 95459 43369 27692 36847 41318 59582 35288 30519 42044 123008 38867 33485 23445 25597 68511 40029 229968 42013 26559 36321 30235 88943 46112 26800 88903 48513 26083 62391 30245 82069 31892 51682 80251 32541 33327 29075 38479 88339 51476 36945 29161 65086 99343 36456 43723 93394 55315 28690 28587 44130 14700 39595 73070 43945 34685 43314 88517 58901 136683 58943 110337 45698 270594 119142 29726 94352 34284 32776 53813 173542 74239 56292 19677 19783 190840 37286 92772 15985 32724 19216 71263 23145 27893 49809 55730 46879 52021 32912 96550 27143 19920 26414 42373 48806 38492 104781 40978 105994 43958 67097 48448 28280 31850 51636 42562 35177 136645 52235 23096 67802 76328 21092 33675 78407 104612 43944 108278 45373 19863 78284 4986 51567 26068 30366 44916 73312 87380 70220 26202 50662 56586 99206 46737 28641 52644 70857 70935 20860 65357 14937 75916 28406 24068 25362 91666 38312 28387 40612 34555 11483 13796 94605 109145 30401 30992 37363 96975 29118 38380 183846 6189 94926 51179 71877 44642 37568 23103 50908 35857 95877 23773 27403 44081 27863 126213 39791 29684 45025 38665 47448 36090 53534 80495 60212 100821 35213 51402 65917 44969 30062 29429 31152 101581 70470 86660 39608 34337 97573 30624 72036 48264 68203 72093 79446 26743 29000 38333 62213 44080 40761 28882 43980 31969 61736 42321 42674 26796 18351 104859 83851 36938 28857 36662 42622 115868 92046 88894 115109 75847 47291 34494 40959 45566 25812 38938 48631 14423 34845 37966 28278 66264 33613 49082 66956 114610 147830 39139 50501 110921 35655 58262 87769 32749 34487 37672 37601 57236 35635 30459 63651
2022-04-13 69020 76570 19160 30970 40150 35150 54060 53790 23590 80480 47960 42040 42370 66320 25720 68680 124100 88440 24570 65250 57060 38970 59510 63370 127000 80630 341900 35050 55640 48710 21150 25940 93500 20750 131800 42060 170800 48520 38080 100700 26170 40640 94290 165600 38990 107100 33220 32060 37050 32470 65300 51110 66250 42600 70860 34190 46460 102300 35840 47740 30290 46660 96300 12770 60750 60850 36360 51770 127400 118200 33410 34620 31310 40610 175400 19560 63870 7261 26210 22800 26550 155100 23410 179500 110100 16440 40090 122600 50590 37250 39710 27650 24450 85220 19660 61490 106600 103800 34800 107500 42790 52100 117500 47990 26500 41510 42280 36410 49370 37020 35590 28620 37630 104000 40590 67030 32290 44780 14210 48580 95630 43480 27730 36920 41410 60030 35390 30610 42070 123500 38880 33590 23490 25650 68710 40110 231000 42070 26610 36370 30280 89080 46220 26830 88990 48650 26150 62530 30300 82270 31950 51920 80410 32600 33370 29100 38570 88480 51580 37000 29240 65520 99600 36530 43810 93600 55500 28730 28800 44210 14710 39830 73250 44050 34740 43410 88710 59050 136900 59030 110600 45860 271300 119400 29790 94530 34390 32840 53880 173900 74320 56410 19810 19830 191200 37390 92980 16010 32780 19230 71430 23280 27970 49910 55780 46940 52110 33020 96740 27190 19920 26510 42380 48980 38620 105000 41140 106100 43970 67170 48630 28360 31920 51910 42700 35310 137000 52340 23160 67940 76460 21150 33740 78500 104800 44090 108500 45450 19900 78390 5004 51730 26090 30470 45090 73450 87550 70420 26210 50730 56690 99400 46980 28690 52790 70990 70950 20900 65460 14960 76000 28450 24170 25430 91800 38430 28440 40700 34610 11500 13830 94700 109600 30460 31150 37450 97210 29160 38440 184200 6230 95150 51280 72050 44780 37780 23140 51020 35990 96050 23830 27500 44170 27910 126600 39890 29740 45130 38770 47550 36210 53710 80650 60350 101000 35310 51500 66080 45040 30160 29480 31340 101800 70650 86830 39720 34420 98230 30680 72240 48330 68330 72220 79550 26810 29090 38410 62380 44180 40890 28920 44060 32050 61820 42400 42820 26800 18400 105100 84050 37060 28950 36680 42690 116100 92240 89030 115300 76070 47380 34540 41020 45660 25850 39040 48740 14470 35080 38060 28340 66550 33680 49320 67100 115000 148200 39230 50580 111300 35720 58390 87900 32820 34560 37680 37730 57340 35750 30580 63870
2022-04-14 69240 76840 19200 31060 40240 35300 54140 53950 23670 80640 48080 42110 42470 66480 25790 68760 124300 88590 24630 65370 57300 39060 59590 63510 127300 80740 342400 35110 55710 48790 21160 26010 93650 20780 132200 42140 171000 48600 38160 100800 26220 40660 94480 165800 39110 107300 33310 32110 37120 32520 65380 51140 66380 42680 70980 34250 46570 102400 35920 47790 30330 46780 96470 12790 60870 60980 36460 51880 127700 118500 33500 34720 31440 40700 176000 19640 63990 7341 26250 22840 26590 156000 23490 179900 110300 16470 40170 122800 50710 37320 39770 27780 24460 85370 19750 61550 106800 104200 34910 107700 42940 52240 117700 48250 26580 41650 42430 36520 49470 37100 35710 28680 37710 104300 40660 67240 32360 44890 14250 48660 95750 43560 27790 37010 41550 60310 35560 30680 42150 123800 38890 33680 23550 25710 68840 40240 231600 42160 26680 36430 30350 89180 46300 26840 89120 48730 26230 62620 30370 82390 32020 52070 80540 32690 33430 29160 38680 88600 51720 37090 29290 65870 99700 36630 43900 93740 55600 28770 28940 44320 14740 39960 73370 44120 34790 43550 88880 59130 137100 59150 110700 45950 271700 119500 29880 94660 34480 32910 53950 174200 74440 56590 19890 19900 191500 37460 93110 16040 32840 19250 71530 23370 28100 50020 55880 47000 52310 33090 97060 27250 19930 26600 42400 49090 38700 105100 41240 106100 44000 67320 48750 28460 32010 52100 42790 35400 137500 52470 23250 68120 76570 21190 33840 78610 105000 44200 108600 45550 19930 78470 5035 51840 26110 30540 45230 73570 87820 70590 26230 50780 56790 99500 47140 28780 52890 71100 70990 20990 65590 15000 76080 28520 24230 25510 91910 38510 28530 40830 34700 11530 13890 94810 109900 30530 31280 37590 97360 29210 38520 184500 6282 95500 51350 72190 45020 37910 23200 51150 36080 96300 23920 27570 44290 27980 127200 40020 29800 45220 38830 47700 36280 53830 80850 60530 101100 35370 51640 66190 45100 30230 29550 31470 102000 70780 87040 39810 34560 98670 30760 72360 48400 68420 72390 79630 26860 29170 38520 62500 44310 40980 28970 44180 32100 61940 42510 42940 26810 18470 105200 84200 37160 29000 36700 42780 116200 92400 89120 115500 76230 47480 34600 41100 45780 25900 39100 48880 14530 35220 38120 28410 66740 33770 49480 67210 115300 148600 39340 50690 111500 35800 58580 88010 32940 34650 37700 37830 57470 35820 30670 63990
2022-04-15 69410 77080 19230 31140 40320 35410 54200 54080 23740 80770 48190 42180 42560 66620 25830 68810 124500 88690 24680 65480 57510 39140 59680 63630 127600 80840 342800 35160 55760 48870 21170 26070 93780 20810 132500 42210 171200 48680 38240 100900 26260 40680 94650 166000 39220 107500 33370 32150 37170 32540 65450 51150 66500 42740 71060 34300 46660 102400 36000 47830 30380 46870 96640 12800 60940 61100 36550 51990 127900 118800 33570 34810 31540 40760 176600 19690 64100 7399 26280 22880 26630 156700 23560 180100 110500 16500 40250 123000 50790 37360 39820 27890 24470 85500 19810 61610 107000 104500 35000 107800 43080 52350 117800 48440 26660 41780 42530 36630 49530 37180 35800 28730 37790 104500 40720 67400 32430 44980 14280 48730 95860 43620 27840 37100 41670 60530 35700 30720 42210 124100 38910 33750 23600 25770 68950 40350 232100 42240 26750 36490 30410 89250 46370 26860 89230 48790 26300 62700 30430 82480 32060 52200 80630 32760 33480 29210 38780 88700 51850 37160 29330 66130 99900 36710 44000 93870 55700 28790 29050 44430 14750 40060 73460 44180 34850 43670 88990 59200 137200 59250 110800 46020 272100 119600 29960 94770 34550 32970 54020 174300 74540 56750 19940 19950 191700 37530 93230 16070 32900 19270 71630 23430 28210 50130 55960 47060 52450 33140 97320 27300 19930 26690 42410 49170 38770 105200 41310 106200 44020 67430 48860 28550 32090 52230 42850 35470 138000 52590 23320 68280 76640 21220 33920 78710 105100 44290 108700 45640 19970 78520 5061 51920 26120 30590 45340 73680 88050 70720 26240 50830 56870 99600 47240 28850 52970 71180 71010 21060 65710 15040 76140 28580 24270 25590 92000 38580 28600 40950 34780 11550 13930 94880 110100 30590 31380 37710 97520 29260 38600 184700 6317 95800 51410 72320 45210 38020 23250 51270 36170 96510 24000 27630 44400 28040 127600 40130 29850 45280 38900 47830 36340 53930 81040 60620 101200 35430 51770 66280 45160 30280 29610 31560 102100 70870 87230 39880 34670 98980 30830 72460 48480 68480 72550 79700 26880 29220 38620 62590 44420 41070 29010 44280 32150 62010 42600 43030 26810 18530 105300 84310 37230 29040 36720 42860 116300 92510 89190 115600 76340 47580 34650 41170 45890 25950 39160 49010 14590 35350 38170 28480 66910 33840 49620 67280 115500 149000 39450 50800 111600 35870 58740 88080 33040 34730 37720 37900 57590 35880 30730 64090
2022-04-16 69570 77250 19260 31210 40380 35500 54260 54200 23790 80880 48290 42250 42640 66750 25870 68870 124700 88780 24730 65580 57690 39210 59750 63710 127800 80930 343200 35210 55800 48930 21170 26120 93890 20840 132800 42270 171300 48740 38320 101000 26290 40700 94780 166100 39320 107600 33420 32190 37230 32570 65540 51170 66610 42780 71130 34370 46750 102400 36070 47850 30420 46960 96800 12810 60980 61200 36620 52090 128100 119100 33640 34890 31630 40810 177100 19730 64210 7450 26300 22920 26670 157300 23630 180400 110700 16530 40320 123200 50860 37410 39870 27970 24470 85650 19860 61650 107200 104800 35070 107900 43190 52430 118000 48570 26730 41890 42640 36730 49600 37260 35870 28770 37850 104700 40790 67540 32490 45050 14310 48780 95960 43680 27890 37180 41770 60690 35820 30760 42240 124400 38920 33820 23660 25820 69030 40450 232500 42310 26810 36540 30470 89310 46420 26860 89320 48850 26370 62750 30490 82540 32100 52280 80720 32830 33520 29250 38870 88780 51970 37230 29370 66330 100000 36790 44090 93980 55790 28800 29120 44520 14770 40160 73520 44230 34910 43790 89110 59260 137300 59340 110800 46080 272400 119700 30030 94860 34620 33030 54080 174500 74640 56890 19980 20010 191800 37580 93350 16090 32960 19290 71680 23480 28310 50230 56020 47120 52580 33200 97550 27350 19960 26780 42420 49240 38820 105300 41370 106200 44030 67530 48960 28640 32170 52330 42900 35530 138300 52710 23390 68430 76730 21260 33990 78810 105300 44370 108800 45720 19990 78590 5083 51980 26130 30620 45450 73750 88260 70810 26250 50880 56950 99700 47320 28910 53030 71260 71030 21120 65830 15070 76190 28630 24300 25660 92130 38650 28670 41050 34850 11570 13970 95000 110200 30650 31450 37810 97620 29310 38670 185000 6345 96070 51450 72420 45380 38110 23300 51390 36220 96710 24070 27670 44500 28100 128100 40240 29910 45310 38930 47940 36410 54010 81210 60690 101300 35480 51880 66330 45230 30350 29670 31640 102300 70960 87410 39930 34770 99220 30900 72540 48550 68530 72700 79750 26920 29270 38710 62660 44530 41130 29060 44380 32190 62070 42690 43100 26820 18590 105300 84420 37250 29090 36720 42950 116400 92630 89240 115700 76440 47670 34700 41240 45990 26000 39200 49130 14640 35460 38210 28550 67050 33910 49730 67340 115700 149400 39540 50890 111700 35950 58890 88160 33130 34810 37730 37970 57710 35920 30790 64160
2022-04-17 69750 77480 19300 31280 40480 35600 54320 54310 23830 81000 48400 42310 42730 66880 25930 68940 124900 88970 24770 65680 57860 39280 59870 63830 128000 81040 343600 35270 55850 49000 21180 26170 94000 20870 133100 42360 171500 48820 38390 101000 26330 40710 94900 166400 39420 107800 33490 32240 37300 32610 65630 51180 66720 42850 71210 34430 46830 102400 36150 47860 30460 47040 96960 12810 61060 61320 36690 52200 128300 119300 33710 34960 31720 40880 177600 19780 64330 7511 26330 22960 26700 157900 23690 180800 110800 16570 40390 123400 50950 37490 39930 28060 24480 85790 19920 61700 107300 105000 35160 108200 43330 52530 118100 48750 26800 42010 42750 36830 49680 37340 35940 28820 37920 105000 40850 67730 32540 45140 14340 48830 96080 43730 27940 37250 41870 60900 35940 30800 42280 124800 38930 33890 23710 25880 69190 40540 233000 42390 26870 36600 30530 89390 46500 26860 89420 48910 26430 62840 30550 82630 32160 52390 80820 32890 33570 29290 38970 88890 52080 37290 29420 66620 100100 36870 44190 94070 55900 28840 29200 44620 14780 40260 73610 44270 34960 43900 89310 59340 137500 59430 110900 46160 272800 119900 30100 94950 34690 33100 54150 174700 74740 57020 20030 20060 192000 37640 93490 16120 33030 19300 71770 23550 28400 50320 56090 47170 52690 33260 97780 27400 19960 26860 42430 49350 38900 105500 41460 106300 44050 67620 49110 28720 32240 52470 42970 35610 138700 52830 23460 68570 76890 21290 34070 78900 105500 44460 108900 45800 20020 78650 5105 52080 26130 30670 45580 73860 88460 70920 26260 50940 57070 99800 47420 28970 53130 71400 71050 21170 65940 15100 76290 28690 24340 25720 92260 38710 28730 41150 34920 11590 14010 95100 110400 30710 31560 37910 97780 29360 38750 185300 6387 96330 51510 72530 45540 38230 23350 51500 36290 96910 24140 27740 44600 28150 128500 40350 29960 45400 38990 48060 36490 54140 81380 60790 101400 35540 51990 66440 45300 30400 29720 31740 102400 71100 87580 40010 34870 99520 30960 72660 48630 68560 72850 79860 26970 29330 38800 62780 44640 41240 29100 44480 32250 62150 42780 43200 26820 18650 105400 84550 37280 29140 36730 43030 116700 92810 89330 115800 76570 47770 34760 41320 46090 26040 39260 49250 14690 35560 38270 28620 67210 33980 49850 67420 115900 149800 39640 50990 111900 36020 59040 88320 33210 34900 37730 38070 57820 35980 30850 64290
2022-04-18 69960 77740 19330 31340 40580 35710 54380 54420 23920 81110 48500 42380 42810 67000 26010 69010 125100 89080 24810 65780 58020 39350 59970 63950 128200 81160 344000 35320 55930 49080 21180 26210 94110 20910 133400 42450 171700 48920 38460 101100 26370 40720 95070 166500 39520 108000 33550 32280 37370 32640 65720 51190 66820 42930 71300 34490 46910 102500 36210 47880 30500 47120 97120 12820 61140 61440 36760 52300 128600 119500 33780 35040 31810 40940 178100 19830 64440 7586 26350 22990 26740 158400 23760 181200 111000 16600 40460 123500 51040 37560 39990 28140 24480 85960 19970 61740 107500 105300 35250 108400 43480 52660 118200 48940 26870 42120 42880 36920 49770 37420 36050 28860 38000 105200 40910 67910 32600 45220 14370 48890 96180 43790 27980 37330 41960 61110 36060 30860 42310 125100 38930 33970 23760 25920 69320 40630 233600 42460 26930 36650 30580 89490 46580 26860 89500 48990 26500 62930 30610 82710 32210 52510 80930 32960 33610 29330 39060 89010 52200 37360 29470 66910 100300 36950 44280 94220 56030 28870 29290 44710 14790 40370 73710 44320 35020 44010 89470 59420 137700 59510 111000 46250 273200 120000 30180 95050 34770 33160 54210 174900 74820 57150 20080 20120 192200 37730 93630 16140 33090 19310 71850 23620 28490 50420 56140 47230 52790 33330 97990 27440 19960 26950 42440 49470 38980 105700 41540 106300 44060 67700 49230 28810 32320 52600 43040 35700 139100 52940 23520 68710 77020 21310 34140 78990 105700 44550 109100 45870 20050 78730 5125 52190 26130 30710 45710 73990 88650 71060 26270 51010 57200 99900 47500 29030 53230 71520 71070 21210 66060 15120 76380 28740 24370 25790 92430 38790 28790 41250 34990 11610 14040 95220 110600 30760 31670 38010 97950 29410 38820 185600 6433 96570 51570 72650 45690 38340 23390 51600 36390 97100 24210 27810 44690 28210 128800 40460 30010 45480 39060 48180 36560 54240 81540 60880 101500 35590 52100 66540 45370 30460 29780 31850 102600 71190 87750 40120 34960 99810 31030 72780 48700 68610 72990 79960 27020 29410 38890 62890 44740 41330 29150 44570 32300 62220 42870 43310 26830 18700 105500 84700 37340 29190 36750 43110 116800 92970 89410 115900 76700 47860 34810 41390 46190 26090 39300 49360 14730 35680 38330 28680 67400 34050 50010 67490 116100 150200 39740 51090 112100 36090 59190 88440 33290 34970 37740 38150 57930 36040 30930 64430
2022-04-19 70150 78010 19370 31400 40680 35800 54430 54530 24000 81210 48600 42440 42890 67110 26080 69090 125300 89210 24850 65880 58180 39420 60110 64060 128400 81290 344400 35370 56000 49180 21190 26260 94210 20940 133600 42540 171900 49030 38530 101200 26410 40740 95240 166700 39620 108200 33610 32320 37460 32680 65800 51210 66920 43030 71430 34560 46990 102500 36280 47900 30540 47200 97280 12820 61240 61530 36830 52400 128900 119800 33850 35120 31890 41010 178600 19880 64550 7651 26370 23030 26780 158900 23820 181600 111200 16630 40520 123700 51140 37630 40050 28210 24490 86110 20030 61780 107700 105600 35330 108600 43650 52790 118400 49040 26940 42230 43000 37020 49860 37500 36190 28910 38100 105400 40970 68080 32660 45340 14400 48940 96310 43860 28030 37400 42060 61270 36170 30920 42340 125500 38940 34030 23810 25970 69460 40710 234200 42520 26990 36700 30640 89610 46660 26870 89590 49070 26560 63030 30670 82790 32260 52610 81040 33020 33660 29370 39150 89130 52310 37420 29530 67200 100400 37020 44370 94350 56150 28910 29390 44800 14800 40470 73810 44380 35080 44120 89630 59490 138000 59590 111200 46350 273600 120100 30250 95150 34850 33220 54260 175200 74910 57280 20120 20170 192400 37800 93810 16170 33160 19320 71930 23690 28580 50510 56190 47280 52890 33430 98200 27490 19970 27030 42450 49620 39050 105900 41660 106400 44070 67770 49360 28890 32390 52710 43110 35780 139400 53050 23590 68840 77190 21350 34200 79080 105900 44630 109200 45950 20080 78830 5145 52300 26150 30750 45860 74110 88830 71200 26270 51090 57330 100000 47590 29080 53310 71740 71090 21250 66170 15150 76470 28790 24410 25850 92590 38870 28850 41340 35050 11630 14080 95360 110700 30820 31780 38100 98120 29460 38890 185900 6485 96810 51620 72780 45830 38470 23430 51710 36470 97290 24270 27860 44790 28260 129200 40560 30060 45590 39140 48290 36620 54310 81700 60970 101600 35650 52200 66650 45440 30520 29830 31940 102800 71300 87910 40240 35050 99930 31090 72900 48770 68630 73140 80090 27060 29470 38980 63030 44850 41430 29200 44660 32350 62300 42950 43410 26830 18760 105600 84840 37450 29260 36750 43200 117000 93110 89500 116000 76840 47950 34860 41460 46290 26130 39360 49480 14780 35760 38400 28750 67600 34120 50160 67570 116300 150500 39840 51180 112300 36160 59330 88580 33370 35050 37750 38240 58040 36110 31000 64580

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-04-13 to 2022-04-19

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-04-12 68743 76177 19130 30908 40013 34921 54000 53683 23458 80396 47869 41979 42292 66196 25609 68566 123866 88247 24536 65158 56909 38906 59393 63145 126780 80426 341171 34997 55564 48549 21142 25898 93400 20684 131580 41924 170510 48415 38005 100526 26125 40626 94054 165247 38898 106880 33070 32021 36949 32421 65207 51099 66148 42488 70683 34103 46374 102250 35772 47640 30253 46584 96166 12768 60584 60642 36295 51679 126996 118023 33347 34553 31236 40507 174908 19450 63769 7163 26189 22765 26510 154617 23349 178917 109895 16397 40033 122274 50432 37198 39615 27577 24429 85008 19553 61445 106484 103570 34629 107233 42621 51898 117237 47568 26434 41413 42068 36315 49247 36935 35406 28576 37490 103712 40527 66792 32247 44614 14182 48470 95459 43369 27692 36847 41318 59582 35288 30519 42044 123008 38867 33485 23445 25597 68511 40029 229968 42013 26559 36321 30235 88943 46112 26800 88903 48513 26083 62391 30245 82069 31892 51682 80251 32541 33327 29075 38479 88339 51476 36945 29161 65086 99343 36456 43723 93394 55315 28690 28587 44130 14700 39595 73070 43945 34685 43314 88517 58901 136683 58943 110337 45698 270594 119142 29726 94352 34284 32776 53813 173542 74239 56292 19677 19783 190840 37286 92772 15985 32724 19216 71263 23145 27893 49809 55730 46879 52021 32912 96550 27143 19920 26414 42373 48806 38492 104781 40978 105994 43958 67097 48448 28280 31850 51636 42562 35177 136645 52235 23096 67802 76328 21092 33675 78407 104612 43944 108278 45373 19863 78284 4986 51567 26068 30366 44916 73312 87380 70220 26202 50662 56586 99206 46737 28641 52644 70857 70935 20860 65357 14937 75916 28406 24068 25362 91666 38312 28387 40612 34555 11483 13796 94605 109145 30401 30992 37363 96975 29118 38380 183846 6189 94926 51179 71877 44642 37568 23103 50908 35857 95877 23773 27403 44081 27863 126213 39791 29684 45025 38665 47448 36090 53534 80495 60212 100821 35213 51402 65917 44969 30062 29429 31152 101581 70470 86660 39608 34337 97573 30624 72036 48264 68203 72093 79446 26743 29000 38333 62213 44080 40761 28882 43980 31969 61736 42321 42674 26796 18351 104859 83851 36938 28857 36662 42622 115868 92046 88894 115109 75847 47291 34494 40959 45566 25812 38938 48631 14423 34845 37966 28278 66264 33613 49082 66956 114610 147830 39139 50501 110921 35655 58262 87769 32749 34487 37672 37601 57236 35635 30459 63651
2022-04-13 68960 76430 19160 30970 40100 35030 54070 53790 23540 80470 47950 42040 42370 66330 25680 68630 124000 88380 24570 65240 57040 38980 59490 63260 126900 80550 341600 35050 55620 48640 21150 25940 93490 20730 131800 42010 170700 48500 38090 100600 26150 40640 94200 165500 38990 107000 33150 32050 37020 32450 65280 51110 66250 42580 70780 34170 46470 102300 35830 47670 30280 46640 96330 12770 60690 60750 36360 51780 127300 118200 33410 34620 31300 40580 175400 19510 63870 7214 26200 22800 26540 154900 23400 179300 110000 16430 40090 122400 50530 37260 39680 27630 24440 85180 19600 61490 106600 103800 34720 107400 42770 52040 117400 47720 26490 41520 42180 36400 49320 37020 35540 28630 37590 103900 40580 66960 32290 44720 14210 48530 95550 43440 27730 36910 41410 59770 35370 30580 42090 123400 38870 33560 23480 25640 68650 40090 230500 42070 26610 36370 30290 89050 46200 26820 88990 48580 26150 62470 30300 82170 31930 51810 80360 32600 33370 29120 38570 88440 51590 37000 29220 65340 99500 36530 43800 93520 55440 28720 28680 44210 14710 39690 73170 44010 34740 43410 88650 59000 136900 59020 110500 45790 271000 119300 29780 94450 34360 32830 53890 173700 74320 56390 19730 19840 191100 37360 92910 16010 32790 19220 71350 23210 27970 49910 55770 46940 52110 33000 96700 27190 19930 26500 42380 48930 38560 105000 41080 106100 43970 67170 48560 28350 31920 51760 42640 35270 137000 52340 23160 67940 76460 21130 33730 78510 104800 44040 108400 45450 19890 78360 5004 51680 26080 30410 45050 73400 87540 70350 26210 50720 56670 99300 46840 28690 52720 70980 70950 20900 65450 14970 75990 28440 24110 25420 91810 38390 28430 40690 34620 11500 13820 94690 109300 30470 31110 37430 97130 29160 38450 184100 6241 95120 51230 72000 44750 37690 23140 51020 35940 96030 23830 27450 44160 27910 126500 39900 29740 45110 38730 47560 36170 53620 80650 60300 100900 35260 51490 66020 45080 30120 29470 31260 101700 70590 86780 39700 34400 97810 30680 72130 48340 68230 72220 79530 26790 29040 38420 62340 44180 40840 28930 44060 32020 61790 42390 42760 26800 18400 105000 83980 37000 28910 36670 42700 116000 92170 88970 115300 75980 47390 34540 41040 45640 25850 38990 48730 14450 34940 38020 28340 66480 33690 49230 67050 114800 148100 39230 50590 111100 35730 58400 87890 32810 34540 37690 37680 57350 35700 30520 63790
2022-04-14 69150 76690 19190 31040 40180 35130 54140 53890 23610 80560 48060 42110 42450 66470 25740 68710 124200 88540 24620 65360 57180 39080 59580 63370 127100 80650 342000 35110 55680 48710 21150 25990 93620 20770 132100 42100 171000 48600 38180 100700 26200 40650 94360 165800 39100 107200 33210 32110 37080 32500 65350 51130 66380 42670 70910 34230 46580 102300 35890 47690 30330 46700 96510 12780 60800 60850 36430 51890 127600 118500 33470 34690 31390 40660 176000 19570 63990 7252 26210 22850 26580 155300 23460 179600 110200 16460 40160 122600 50630 37340 39740 27690 24440 85330 19660 61530 106800 104100 34810 107600 42920 52160 117600 47870 26560 41640 42290 36490 49410 37110 35660 28670 37680 104200 40670 67130 32350 44820 14240 48600 95660 43510 27770 36980 41520 59950 35460 30640 42140 123800 38880 33650 23530 25690 68780 40170 231100 42120 26670 36420 30350 89170 46280 26830 89120 48660 26210 62560 30370 82280 31990 51910 80490 32660 33430 29170 38650 88560 51720 37070 29260 65610 99700 36610 43890 93650 55540 28770 28770 44290 14710 39780 73280 44060 34800 43520 88820 59070 137100 59110 110600 45880 271400 119400 29850 94580 34440 32880 53960 174000 74410 56530 19770 19880 191300 37430 93040 16040 32850 19230 71450 23270 28050 50010 55830 47000 52230 33090 96880 27240 19930 26590 42390 49060 38640 105100 41180 106200 43980 67240 48670 28420 31990 51910 42710 35350 137300 52440 23230 68070 76610 21160 33810 78610 105000 44150 108500 45540 19930 78450 5026 51780 26090 30450 45190 73530 87730 70490 26220 50790 56790 99400 46960 28740 52810 71120 70970 20950 65560 15010 76080 28500 24150 25470 91950 38480 28480 40780 34690 11530 13860 94800 109500 30530 31220 37500 97280 29210 38520 184400 6284 95360 51300 72120 44860 37810 23180 51150 36030 96190 23890 27510 44260 27960 126900 40010 29800 45210 38790 47670 36260 53700 80820 60450 101100 35320 51590 66120 45180 30180 29520 31370 101900 70730 86960 39800 34480 98050 30740 72230 48420 68260 72360 79630 26830 29100 38520 62470 44280 40920 28980 44150 32060 61890 42480 42850 26810 18460 105100 84100 37100 28960 36690 42780 116200 92330 89070 115400 76110 47490 34590 41120 45740 25900 39050 48850 14480 35010 38080 28410 66650 33760 49350 67150 114900 148400 39310 50690 111300 35790 58540 88030 32870 34610 37700 37770 57450 35770 30600 63910
2022-04-15 69320 76920 19230 31100 40260 35230 54210 53970 23670 80650 48150 42170 42530 66590 25800 68770 124400 88670 24670 65440 57310 39160 59670 63480 127300 80750 342400 35170 55730 48800 21160 26040 93730 20810 132300 42180 171100 48680 38250 100900 26240 40650 94500 166000 39200 107400 33270 32150 37140 32530 65430 51140 66480 42750 71000 34290 46680 102300 35960 47700 30370 46760 96680 12790 60880 60950 36500 51990 127800 118700 33540 34760 31460 40710 176400 19620 64110 7283 26220 22890 26620 155600 23520 179900 110400 16490 40230 122800 50700 37410 39790 27750 24450 85480 19710 61570 107000 104300 34890 107800 43060 52270 117700 47980 26620 41740 42370 36580 49480 37190 35760 28720 37750 104400 40740 67280 32400 44910 14270 48660 95750 43570 27820 37050 41610 60100 35550 30680 42180 124100 38880 33720 23570 25740 68890 40240 231500 42180 26730 36470 30400 89280 46370 26840 89230 48720 26270 62620 30430 82370 32040 52020 80600 32730 33480 29220 38730 88660 51850 37130 29310 65850 99800 36690 43980 93780 55640 28800 28850 44370 14730 39860 73390 44120 34850 43620 88960 59140 137200 59190 110800 45950 271800 119500 29920 94700 34510 32940 54030 174200 74490 56640 19800 19930 191500 37490 93170 16070 32910 19230 71540 23320 28120 50110 55880 47060 52340 33160 97050 27290 19940 26670 42400 49160 38710 105300 41240 106300 43990 67310 48780 28490 32050 52010 42770 35420 137500 52540 23300 68190 76740 21200 33870 78720 105200 44240 108600 45620 19960 78520 5047 51870 26100 30490 45320 73630 87900 70620 26230 50850 56890 99500 47060 28790 52890 71240 70980 20990 65660 15040 76160 28540 24180 25520 92070 38540 28530 40850 34760 11550 13880 94900 109600 30590 31320 37580 97430 29250 38600 184600 6326 95580 51360 72240 44970 37920 23220 51270 36110 96350 23940 27570 44340 28000 127200 40110 29850 45300 38850 47770 36350 53770 80980 60520 101200 35380 51670 66220 45270 30240 29580 31450 102000 70850 87110 39880 34560 98260 30800 72320 48500 68270 72500 79710 26870 29140 38610 62590 44380 40990 29040 44230 32100 61950 42550 42930 26820 18500 105200 84210 37190 29000 36700 42860 116400 92460 89170 115600 76220 47580 34640 41190 45840 25940 39110 48950 14510 35080 38130 28470 66810 33830 49460 67220 115100 148700 39390 50790 111500 35860 58690 88150 32930 34670 37710 37850 57550 35830 30660 64020
2022-04-16 69500 77130 19260 31160 40330 35310 54270 54050 23720 80730 48240 42230 42600 66710 25850 68820 124600 88800 24710 65510 57430 39230 59760 63580 127500 80830 342800 35230 55780 48860 21160 26080 93830 20850 132600 42250 171300 48760 38320 100900 26260 40660 94620 166200 39300 107500 33320 32180 37210 32560 65490 51150 66550 42810 71070 34350 46760 102300 36020 47710 30400 46810 96850 12790 60950 61030 36570 52090 128000 118900 33600 34830 31530 40770 176900 19660 64220 7320 26230 22930 26660 155900 23580 180200 110500 16520 40290 122900 50770 37470 39840 27800 24450 85620 19760 61600 107100 104600 34960 108000 43190 52350 117800 48060 26680 41840 42460 36660 49540 37270 35870 28760 37820 104500 40800 67430 32450 45000 14300 48720 95840 43620 27860 37110 41690 60230 35640 30730 42220 124400 38890 33790 23610 25780 68990 40300 231900 42230 26790 36520 30460 89380 46440 26840 89340 48780 26330 62670 30480 82450 32080 52090 80700 32790 33530 29270 38810 88750 51970 37190 29350 66060 99900 36770 44070 93890 55740 28830 28910 44440 14730 39940 73480 44160 34910 43720 89080 59200 137400 59250 110900 46020 272100 119600 29970 94790 34580 32990 54100 174300 74570 56740 19830 19960 191600 37550 93290 16090 32970 19240 71610 23370 28190 50210 55920 47110 52440 33230 97190 27340 19950 26760 42410 49250 38770 105400 41300 106400 44000 67380 48880 28560 32120 52110 42830 35490 137800 52640 23360 68330 76860 21220 33930 78820 105300 44330 108700 45690 19990 78580 5067 51940 26120 30520 45450 73710 88050 70720 26240 50910 56970 99600 47150 28840 52950 71360 71000 21030 65770 15060 76230 28590 24210 25570 92190 38610 28580 40920 34810 11570 13910 94990 109700 30640 31400 37640 97560 29290 38670 184900 6368 95790 51410 72370 45070 38010 23260 51380 36180 96510 23990 27600 44430 28050 127400 40210 29910 45370 38900 47870 36440 53830 81130 60590 101300 35420 51750 66290 45370 30290 29630 31530 102100 70970 87240 39960 34630 98440 30860 72410 48570 68290 72640 79790 26900 29180 38680 62700 44460 41060 29090 44300 32140 62010 42620 43000 26820 18550 105300 84310 37240 29050 36700 42930 116600 92580 89250 115700 76330 47680 34690 41260 45920 25980 39150 49050 14540 35160 38180 28520 66950 33900 49560 67270 115200 149000 39470 50880 111600 35920 58820 88260 32990 34730 37710 37930 57640 35880 30710 64100
2022-04-17 69680 77340 19300 31220 40420 35380 54340 54140 23770 80820 48340 42310 42680 66850 25910 68910 124800 88950 24740 65600 57570 39310 59860 63690 127600 80950 343300 35290 55840 48950 21170 26140 93960 20890 132800 42350 171500 48850 38400 101100 26300 40660 94730 166400 39400 107700 33370 32220 37280 32600 65590 51150 66690 42910 71160 34420 46860 102400 36080 47720 30440 46870 97030 12800 61050 61130 36640 52210 128200 119100 33670 34900 31600 40830 177300 19700 64350 7367 26240 22970 26700 156300 23640 180600 110700 16560 40360 123100 50870 37540 39920 27860 24460 85780 19820 61640 107300 104800 35050 108200 43320 52440 118000 48190 26750 41950 42560 36750 49620 37360 35970 28800 37880 104800 40910 67600 32500 45090 14340 48770 95960 43680 27900 37190 41790 60400 35740 30780 42250 124800 38890 33870 23660 25850 69160 40370 232300 42300 26850 36560 30520 89520 46530 26840 89450 48860 26390 62760 30540 82560 32130 52180 80810 32860 33580 29320 38890 88870 52100 37250 29400 66290 100100 36840 44150 94010 55860 28860 28980 44520 14730 40000 73590 44200 34970 43830 89290 59290 137600 59340 111000 46100 272500 119800 30030 94910 34650 33040 54160 174600 74660 56860 19870 20010 191800 37620 93450 16120 33030 19240 71730 23430 28260 50310 55970 47170 52530 33310 97400 27380 19950 26840 42410 49370 38850 105600 41400 106500 44010 67440 49000 28620 32190 52240 42910 35570 138100 52750 23430 68470 77020 21260 34000 78940 105600 44420 108900 45770 20030 78660 5089 52050 26130 30560 45570 73830 88220 70840 26240 50980 57090 99800 47250 28890 53050 71550 71010 21070 65870 15100 76350 28640 24250 25620 92340 38680 28630 41000 34880 11600 13940 95130 109900 30700 31500 37720 97720 29340 38740 185200 6406 96020 51470 72480 45180 38130 23310 51500 36260 96680 24050 27670 44510 28100 127800 40310 29970 45470 38960 47990 36520 53960 81280 60680 101400 35480 51830 66400 45460 30340 29680 31610 102300 71100 87450 40050 34710 98670 30910 72540 48660 68300 72780 79910 26950 29230 38780 62840 44560 41150 29150 44390 32190 62080 42700 43090 26830 18590 105400 84440 37310 29100 36710 43020 116800 92750 89380 115900 76470 47780 34740 41340 46010 26030 39220 49160 14570 35230 38250 28580 67100 33970 49680 67360 115400 149400 39560 50980 111800 35990 58960 88420 33050 34780 37720 38020 57740 35950 30790 64230
2022-04-18 69900 77600 19330 31280 40530 35490 54400 54240 23870 80910 48450 42390 42770 67000 25990 69010 125000 89110 24810 65700 57710 39400 59960 63820 127800 81120 343800 35350 55920 49040 21170 26210 94100 20940 133200 42450 171800 48970 38500 101200 26350 40670 94940 166600 39510 107900 33440 32270 37370 32640 65690 51160 66840 43030 71310 34480 46970 102400 36150 47730 30480 46930 97250 12800 61170 61240 36710 52340 128600 119400 33740 34990 31690 40900 177900 19760 64500 7422 26250 23010 26750 156600 23700 181000 110900 16600 40430 123300 50990 37620 39990 27920 24470 85970 19870 61680 107500 105100 35140 108400 43490 52570 118200 48360 26810 42080 42690 36850 49730 37460 36100 28850 37990 105000 41020 67780 32560 45200 14370 48840 96100 43750 27960 37280 41920 60630 35830 30860 42290 125200 38900 33960 23710 25900 69330 40450 232900 42380 26910 36630 30580 89680 46630 26850 89600 48950 26470 62890 30610 82700 32190 52320 80940 32930 33630 29380 38990 89010 52230 37330 29460 66560 100300 36920 44250 94170 56000 28900 29060 44610 14740 40120 73730 44280 35030 43940 89510 59380 137900 59450 111100 46210 273000 120000 30110 95080 34740 33110 54240 174900 74770 57010 19930 20090 192100 37710 93630 16150 33090 19240 71860 23500 28350 50430 56020 47220 52630 33410 97590 27450 19960 26930 42420 49550 38940 105800 41500 106600 44020 67500 49170 28690 32260 52420 43010 35680 138500 52880 23500 68600 77200 21290 34070 79080 105800 44530 109100 45870 20070 78770 5111 52180 26150 30620 45710 73980 88430 71000 26250 51060 57260 99900 47360 28950 53160 71740 71020 21110 65980 15140 76470 28690 24300 25680 92540 38760 28690 41100 34960 11630 13970 95280 110100 30770 31620 37810 97920 29410 38820 185500 6452 96240 51550 72610 45310 38260 23350 51640 36370 96850 24110 27750 44610 28160 128100 40430 30030 45610 39030 48100 36610 54040 81460 60790 101600 35550 51950 66530 45570 30410 29750 31730 102500 71210 87680 40150 34780 98880 30980 72680 48760 68310 72920 80030 27010 29320 38890 62980 44680 41260 29200 44490 32250 62170 42790 43190 26840 18640 105600 84620 37410 29170 36720 43120 117100 92950 89510 116000 76640 47890 34800 41430 46120 26080 39300 49280 14600 35330 38320 28660 67300 34060 49840 67470 115600 149700 39660 51100 112000 36070 59130 88590 33120 34910 37730 38110 57860 36030 30880 64380
2022-04-19 70110 77900 19360 31340 40620 35610 54460 54330 23970 81010 48550 42460 42860 67140 26080 69100 125200 89270 24860 65800 57860 39480 60070 63940 127900 81260 344300 35410 55980 49140 21170 26260 94230 20980 133400 42550 172000 49080 38600 101400 26390 40680 95120 166900 39610 108100 33510 32320 37450 32690 65780 51170 66970 43160 71470 34540 47070 102400 36220 47750 30520 46990 97450 12800 61290 61340 36780 52460 128900 119600 33800 35060 31760 40980 178500 19830 64630 7477 26260 23050 26800 157000 23750 181400 111100 16630 40500 123500 51090 37700 40060 27980 24470 86140 19930 61720 107700 105400 35220 108600 43650 52700 118400 48520 26880 42200 42840 36940 49840 37550 36260 28890 38100 105300 41110 67950 32620 45320 14400 48920 96240 43840 28010 37360 42020 60870 35910 30920 42320 125600 38900 34040 23750 25950 69480 40530 233500 42440 26970 36690 30640 89850 46720 26850 89730 49030 26530 63000 30670 82840 32250 52420 81070 33000 33680 29460 39080 89140 52360 37400 29520 66880 100400 37000 44350 94310 56130 28950 29190 44690 14740 40210 73870 44340 35090 44050 89680 59470 138100 59530 111300 46310 273500 120100 30180 95230 34820 33170 54310 175200 74870 57140 19970 20150 192300 37770 93810 16180 33150 19250 71980 23580 28420 50540 56060 47280 52720 33530 97780 27510 19960 27020 42430 49720 39020 106000 41600 106800 44030 67570 49330 28760 32330 52550 43100 35770 138800 52980 23570 68720 77380 21330 34140 79220 106000 44640 109200 45960 20100 78860 5132 52290 26170 30670 45870 74120 88610 71150 26260 51130 57400 100000 47450 29000 53260 71960 71030 21150 66090 15170 76560 28740 24340 25740 92700 38850 28750 41200 35030 11650 14000 95410 110300 30830 31750 37890 98100 29460 38900 185800 6500 96480 51620 72740 45420 38410 23400 51760 36460 97020 24160 27810 44710 28210 128500 40550 30090 45720 39090 48220 36700 54120 81650 60900 101700 35610 52050 66640 45670 30470 29820 31840 102700 71330 87880 40250 34860 99070 31040 72820 48840 68330 73070 80150 27050 29380 38990 63120 44780 41350 29260 44580 32300 62260 42870 43270 26840 18690 105800 84760 37540 29250 36730 43210 117300 93120 89650 116200 76790 48000 34860 41510 46230 26140 39380 49400 14630 35430 38380 28730 67510 34140 49990 67570 115800 150000 39750 51210 112200 36150 59290 88750 33190 34990 37750 38200 57970 36100 30950 64520

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.