COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-04-19 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-04-19

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-04-19

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232021-12-282022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222021-12-282022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-182022-01-242021-12-292022-03-222021-12-292022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-03-222022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242021-12-292022-03-222022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-02-062022-02-062022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062022-03-192022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-172022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-03-212022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-202022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-192022-03-232022-02-062022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-202022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-03-232022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-24
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 1126 1275 1525 804 437 780 1774 1382 170 1253 2241 604 136 403 3961 989 266 1660 1411 1658 269 1199 256 17521 1550 3317 167 319 99 4696 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 247 916 82 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 155 2002 169 611 197 236 276 133 1418 255 1362 121 1222 456 437 192 222 2091 216 1466 568 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7754 684 304 121 62 774 72 3960 513 7900 4326 70 1426 375 1559 1550 132 862 267 303 481 896 4767 2335 1159 312 2036 1878 317 1747 663 1048 1254 885 1468 1093 1560 891 1505 446 159 1625 976 1274 72 1353 3625 1652 982 154 1007 2291 930 917 560 6120 105 1022 779 106 2871 149 6944 1464 847 1510 118 3360 1261 77 3318 175 121 197 1115 247 1188 1498 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 291 1188 1044 2486 277 131 1158 3872 1474 1689 886 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 277 2021 429 187 4514 1732 847 237 803 3519 138 1238 694 527 174 1963 580 540 467 148 3625 516 696 246 2554 147 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1347 384 825 70 1495 532 1263 164 4887 168 235 107 1141 1531 659 963 1941 1111 182 3559 222 133 1868 304 835 133 2965 448 1403 279 1790 56 4269 264 212 84 58 2223 3085 541 335 76 2466 199 236 2322 109 1632 1804 1026 61 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 294 143 118 160 147 259 75 4748 5886 138 1365 1073 4438 127 1175 8405 632 534 2347 2862 1130 1408 89 1599 148 2982 587 132 1470 763 4031 1059 875 1101 129 1007 131 2510 334 2379 333 1253 1583 3012 198 135 992 1278 3842 3631 296 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 116 2290 220 95 844 990 252 1394 1055 812 1551 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 102 1143 367 252 3811 4283 282 220 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 808 1620 922 2543 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 229 473 1307 1823 245 141 796 100 1077 2155 133 1060 2087
Days since peak 72 72 85 85 85 72 85 113 72 85 85 28 85 85 85 28 28 85 85 28 85 85 85 28 85 28 85 85 85 27 112 28 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 28 85 28 85 85 85 85 85 85 28 85 28 112 28 28 28 27 85 28 85 32 85 111 28 111 28 85 28 85 28 85 85 85 85 85 72 72 28 72 28 85 27 85 85 85 85 28 85 28 85 85 28 85 111 28 85 111 85 85 85 27 72 72 28 72 85 85 72 85 85 85 72 85 72 28 28 85 85 85 28 85 85 85 85 28 85 72 85 85 111 72 31 85 85 28 85 28 56 85 85 85 28 85 85 33 85 28 27 28 85 28 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 28 85 85 72 28 26 85 85 85 85 72 85 112 85 85 85 85 85 27 85 28 28 85 85 28 28 85 85 27 85 85 28 28 85 85 85 28 28 85 85 85 113 85 28 85 85 85 85 85 72 28 85 29 72 111 85 28 85 28 28 30 85 72 85 85 85 85 28 56 28 28 85 28 85 28 85 28 85 28 85 28 85 72 28 31 27 72 85 28 28 30 85 28 28 85 27 85 56 113 28 85 85 85 85 85 85 28 28 28 28 28 85 28 85 85 28 72 85 85 28 85 85 72 28 85 85 85 72 28 85 27 85 85 28 85 85 72 85 85 85 28 85 27 85 28 85 28 85 85 85 28 27 85 72 85 85 28 85 85 85 85 85 85 29 85 28 28 85 85 27 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 111 85 85 85 85 85 29 85 27 27 85 85 28 28 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 56 85 85 72 85 85 85 85 85 85 28 28 85 85 27 28 85 28 85 85 28 85 85
Last total 69699 77368 19284 31156 40388 35482 54378 54212 23825 80742 48298 42254 42622 66739 25877 68806 124640 88803 24710 65518 57402 39208 59925 63602 127508 80849 342852 35248 55846 48941 21183 26112 93962 20802 132753 42291 171450 48832 38384 101019 26286 40675 94754 166288 39339 107568 33302 32227 37258 32622 65627 51160 66550 42953 71177 34348 46754 102413 36076 47718 30432 46873 96928 12785 61042 61104 36596 52154 128157 119096 33678 34883 31503 40895 177520 19706 64387 7447 26256 22953 26619 156291 23596 180537 110559 16547 40281 122978 50841 37539 39830 27813 24479 85606 19728 61711 107205 104821 34987 107991 43399 52510 117894 48074 26723 41886 42636 36709 49598 37385 35963 28791 37932 104854 40872 67672 32466 44991 14334 48783 95923 43642 27914 37175 41717 60394 35641 30767 42234 125010 38914 33777 23653 25836 69088 40303 232646 42293 26828 36505 30532 89493 46495 26852 89373 48835 26412 62750 30513 82469 32100 52156 80680 32798 33537 29295 38870 88818 52088 37211 29436 66295 99913 36783 44123 93863 55818 28840 28917 44526 14741 39933 73546 44252 34962 43749 89272 59302 137564 59265 110861 46091 272456 119708 30025 94929 34630 33049 54204 174545 74598 56703 19835 20023 191797 37616 93288 16104 33052 19250 71676 23424 28227 50220 55921 47254 52387 33385 97149 27355 19951 26860 42423 49342 38795 105586 41352 106404 44024 67452 49015 28617 32135 52195 42871 35530 138136 52796 23425 68415 76983 21294 33961 78856 105681 44371 108825 45705 19983 78680 5089 51926 26117 30518 45643 73738 88149 70770 26227 51004 57007 99596 47128 28835 52979 71737 71024 21001 65855 15062 76296 28605 24254 25596 92368 38649 28597 40961 34809 11581 13928 95138 109717 30691 31521 37747 97704 29397 38656 185470 6409 95909 51446 72389 45218 38116 23259 51450 36154 96594 24015 27618 44482 28131 127732 40261 29957 45508 38949 47986 36405 53926 81113 60598 101389 35413 51822 66319 45417 30322 29645 31575 102342 70955 87400 40052 34631 98302 30890 72449 48591 68320 72693 79855 26965 29204 38789 62657 44543 41190 29102 44344 32186 61993 42660 43042 26838 18585 105363 84418 37223 29082 36733 43003 116722 92661 89306 115752 76399 47778 34716 41290 45954 25997 39198 49123 14572 35253 38278 28595 67224 33987 49558 67361 115341 149360 39512 50896 111724 35932 58780 88321 33036 34750 37742 37979 57717 35950 30732 64293
Last daily increment 117 103 17 34 61 52 60 85 34 72 55 49 41 47 35 33 127 84 23 63 66 28 63 69 123 66 222 36 36 56 4 22 94 21 171 59 131 49 55 74 17 10 94 147 59 97 31 37 44 29 61 4 62 64 89 30 57 25 38 12 33 43 116 1 48 56 40 59 171 166 55 46 46 52 228 29 89 22 12 13 18 236 27 238 80 23 34 105 48 48 33 24 5 59 22 54 113 148 40 102 64 50 89 47 52 66 45 60 60 55 46 33 43 144 53 92 23 62 16 50 69 50 22 46 59 75 60 41 28 159 5 43 28 33 86 21 259 42 28 19 39 81 42 6 70 45 47 41 30 54 38 84 51 38 38 34 47 63 76 28 21 101 83 41 59 70 73 18 29 70 10 43 59 55 45 54 117 58 127 40 58 62 253 73 34 80 43 45 76 167 60 62 32 24 157 42 71 20 32 5 43 36 35 57 43 54 53 30 62 39 3 41 7 83 43 113 47 70 8 56 60 51 31 71 31 54 146 75 52 88 98 23 32 56 140 63 88 45 17 63 6 42 2 32 67 59 120 76 1 57 50 53 53 31 48 112 7 16 55 12 63 26 33 29 100 51 29 57 38 9 23 78 86 24 66 45 101 41 34 223 19 132 38 68 77 28 31 65 30 97 35 25 56 34 162 60 36 61 38 60 44 51 84 53 76 25 59 51 73 33 31 40 100 76 112 57 31 109 36 55 50 10 62 57 33 27 53 55 60 61 25 36 39 50 59 49 3 30 69 85 39 30 11 61 122 81 67 102 77 50 37 45 53 32 39 51 23 38 42 52 109 53 76 55 118 194 51 65 114 43 65 62 28 29 5 35 50 48 36 87
Last week 882 1098 116 219 326 509 322 465 321 301 370 231 300 454 237 224 698 485 160 315 423 255 462 392 629 390 1466 216 238 350 41 192 497 110 1019 318 787 369 315 452 141 49 607 910 379 614 206 191 258 177 370 60 357 413 450 206 334 158 278 78 161 245 661 17 389 392 255 419 1014 910 286 280 235 352 2437 241 549 253 66 168 94 1484 212 1403 588 121 220 637 353 301 194 209 50 514 155 225 636 1069 316 652 714 546 596 456 252 414 537 342 319 391 511 185 417 987 307 781 188 323 131 283 416 244 179 298 346 744 314 215 162 1866 46 252 184 212 495 235 2505 251 222 167 260 494 333 52 418 270 279 327 234 360 194 431 383 218 191 202 339 428 545 225 232 1110 507 290 349 422 440 130 304 345 41 294 423 271 241 396 662 349 771 292 448 349 1645 498 260 511 317 236 323 910 323 366 137 201 839 286 463 107 289 34 368 245 288 355 166 304 324 448 527 187 31 403 50 466 270 705 308 382 66 296 525 292 250 463 261 307 1405 484 288 512 580 180 243 395 933 369 481 290 103 349 93 301 49 125 676 360 675 494 25 302 359 353 343 169 279 811 88 127 424 108 342 171 168 203 618 293 183 306 218 91 114 475 511 253 482 337 646 238 237 1429 196 848 239 454 505 499 145 468 248 622 200 178 344 238 1407 403 236 407 249 476 266 350 526 332 494 175 366 351 378 223 182 394 669 414 637 380 251 627 230 367 284 117 516 357 196 187 399 381 397 380 190 322 194 226 300 312 42 200 461 504 246 195 70 331 737 544 381 567 470 420 191 281 339 167 235 406 136 381 271 267 888 327 406 365 651 1307 314 340 726 241 431 477 253 221 70 303 410 271 241 555
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152022-01-24 -- --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-142021-10-042022-01-242021-07-152021-07-142021-10-202022-01-242021-07-202022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-06-062022-01-242021-10-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-10-192022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-12-282021-07-152021-12-292021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-10-182022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012022-01-242021-11-032021-12-282021-07-142022-01-242021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-132022-01-24 --2021-07-142022-01-242021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2022-01-242021-08-242021-06-292022-01-242021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-15 --2022-01-24 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132022-01-242021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-062021-12-282021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-122022-01-242021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-12-282021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-14 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-152021-10-142021-09-022022-01-242022-01-242021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-162022-01-242022-01-242021-07-112021-07-162022-01-242021-07-29 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-022022-01-242021-07-152021-12-282021-07-122021-09-15 --2022-01-242021-07-112022-01-242022-01-242021-12-27 --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 --2022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242021-10-182022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-08-032022-01-242021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-06-29 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-12-30 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192022-01-242021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-162022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-09-012021-08-17 --2022-01-242021-07-162021-07-16 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-152021-08-172022-01-24 --2021-10-042021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-052022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-15 --2022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-10-182022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-08-172022-01-242021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192021-08-192021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-172021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-192022-01-242022-01-24 -- --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-12-28 --2021-07-152022-01-242021-07-162021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 1599 57 3477 4582 276 70 2556 152 144 287 2285 379 3307 943 127 2250 126 962 202 293 107 478 103 4180 68 508 218 621 4 258 94 72 1302 74 2935 249 2895 1143 2214 1302 1131 115 528 101 3005 67 2422 170 1033 3801 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 1939 21 403 114 995 708 607 376 551 101 5019 122 140 1634 86 3466 64 202 400 4687 137 188 4677 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 3182 1563 61 417 105 58 1189 128 185 88 171 421 482 67 56 884 274 1519 941 95 63 1137 163 323 229 2105 817 2104 3254 61 65 146 54 151 1707 82 90 203 3914 1327 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 3609 6117 3336 301 117 11029 6320 51 213 1176 99 9205 3848 120 41 47 10177 1515 169 40 164 72 503 101 274 115 3381 49 189 31 184 1329 384 1519 5335 518 164 123 94 256 1060 1294 1824 525 291 2932 77 1179 3811 87 5264 158 839 255 1562 291 1808 118 2613 2589 315 2199 4529 297 1065 114 289 268 776 140 67 213 75 73 49 4307 1311 892 1297 1206 344 253 951 78 123 857 96 482 3240 277 202 118 768 1218 345 86 863 85 470 128 68 77 1609 106 1377 303 3022 152 4073 70 131 1783 1077 91 243 339 3812 201 428 57 145 101 890 329 3757 968 143 2555 116 92 150 92 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 422 79 5038 4407 157 313 2987 1563 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 1539 4859 4157 1188 63 397 117 1437 74 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 45 18 51 163 103 28 73 51 54 99 87 179 80 406 33 47 31 21 75 124 39 190 42 123 22 28 83 100 2 100 38 34 55 31 43 97 43 97 122 31 99 22 56 21 143 25 71 46 94 164 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 107 5 29 25 29 227 190 143 19 39 163 49 43 40 41 97 32 63 142 85 56 26 150 58 49 49 57 36 30 35 136 49 25 19 38 23 45 44 80 41 67 199 36 29 19 22 75 49 199 21 30 49 76 22 57 45 39 89 113 27 32 32 18 70 81 41 37 59 115 39 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 100 95 49 74 44 269 77 20 66 41 43 183 66 51 17 14 129 31 77 11 75 30 58 36 58 32 136 24 22 2 75 42 120 35 103 32 54 61 39 68 52 157 44 56 115 99 22 32 136 42 108 50 15 87 96 29 9 19 148 106 22 86 84 49 38 51 68 125 15 61 17 69 20 21 17 66 54 47 55 59 21 104 41 28 40 35 33 189 149 91 64 40 28 46 58 34 45 40 149 59 28 35 30 42 33 55 119 56 161 34 49 60 33 38 118 78 78 62 96 24 64 24 56 103 38 22 34 70 35 37 63 23 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 40 36 79 68 70 94 69 88 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 74 111 58 59 31 28 52 36 35 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-04-20 to 2022-04-26

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-04-19 69699 77368 19284 31156 40388 35482 54378 54212 23825 80742 48298 42254 42622 66739 25877 68806 124640 88803 24710 65518 57402 39208 59925 63602 127508 80849 342852 35248 55846 48941 21183 26112 93962 20802 132753 42291 171450 48832 38384 101019 26286 40675 94754 166288 39339 107568 33302 32227 37258 32622 65627 51160 66550 42953 71177 34348 46754 102413 36076 47718 30432 46873 96928 12785 61042 61104 36596 52154 128157 119096 33678 34883 31503 40895 177520 19706 64387 7447 26256 22953 26619 156291 23596 180537 110559 16547 40281 122978 50841 37539 39830 27813 24479 85606 19728 61711 107205 104821 34987 107991 43399 52510 117894 48074 26723 41886 42636 36709 49598 37385 35963 28791 37932 104854 40872 67672 32466 44991 14334 48783 95923 43642 27914 37175 41717 60394 35641 30767 42234 125010 38914 33777 23653 25836 69088 40303 232646 42293 26828 36505 30532 89493 46495 26852 89373 48835 26412 62750 30513 82469 32100 52156 80680 32798 33537 29295 38870 88818 52088 37211 29436 66295 99913 36783 44123 93863 55818 28840 28917 44526 14741 39933 73546 44252 34962 43749 89272 59302 137564 59265 110861 46091 272456 119708 30025 94929 34630 33049 54204 174545 74598 56703 19835 20023 191797 37616 93288 16104 33052 19250 71676 23424 28227 50220 55921 47254 52387 33385 97149 27355 19951 26860 42423 49342 38795 105586 41352 106404 44024 67452 49015 28617 32135 52195 42871 35530 138136 52796 23425 68415 76983 21294 33961 78856 105681 44371 108825 45705 19983 78680 5089 51926 26117 30518 45643 73738 88149 70770 26227 51004 57007 99596 47128 28835 52979 71737 71024 21001 65855 15062 76296 28605 24254 25596 92368 38649 28597 40961 34809 11581 13928 95138 109717 30691 31521 37747 97704 29397 38656 185470 6409 95909 51446 72389 45218 38116 23259 51450 36154 96594 24015 27618 44482 28131 127732 40261 29957 45508 38949 47986 36405 53926 81113 60598 101389 35413 51822 66319 45417 30322 29645 31575 102342 70955 87400 40052 34631 98302 30890 72449 48591 68320 72693 79855 26965 29204 38789 62657 44543 41190 29102 44344 32186 61993 42660 43042 26838 18585 105363 84418 37223 29082 36733 43003 116722 92661 89306 115752 76399 47778 34716 41290 45954 25997 39198 49123 14572 35253 38278 28595 67224 33987 49558 67361 115341 149360 39512 50896 111724 35932 58780 88321 33036 34750 37742 37979 57717 35950 30732 64293
2022-04-20 69880 77580 19310 31200 40460 35600 54440 54300 24030 80790 48410 42290 42690 66790 25920 68860 124800 88860 24750 65560 57480 39240 60030 63700 127700 80940 343200 35300 55900 49010 21190 26160 94060 20830 132900 42340 171600 48890 38430 101100 26330 40680 95020 166500 39380 107900 33320 32270 37290 32650 65700 51160 66640 43100 71360 34400 46830 102600 36140 47760 30470 46940 97020 12790 61110 61170 36670 52240 128400 119300 33730 34950 31540 40960 178700 19750 64490 7512 26270 22990 26650 156700 23660 180700 110600 16570 40310 123100 50910 37600 39870 27860 24500 85710 19740 61750 107300 105100 35060 108100 43610 52710 118000 48130 26780 41940 42730 36800 49640 37470 36070 28830 38080 105100 40940 67810 32500 45050 14360 48910 96160 43750 28000 37240 41750 60670 35690 30800 42270 125400 38920 33850 23690 25880 69230 40330 233500 42340 26880 36550 30580 89730 46630 26880 89470 48900 26440 62910 30560 82500 32140 52240 80730 32820 33580 29340 38940 88910 52220 37270 29480 66870 100000 36810 44190 93960 55910 28860 29040 44590 14750 40010 73760 44370 35020 43830 89410 59450 137700 59310 111200 46160 272800 119800 30080 95180 34700 33110 54270 174800 74680 56790 19870 20140 192000 37680 93420 16130 33140 19250 71730 23510 28300 50300 55950 47320 52440 33520 97270 27400 19970 26940 42440 49440 38860 105700 41410 106500 44030 67540 49240 28690 32190 52270 43050 35610 138700 52890 23480 68510 77100 21310 34010 78950 105900 44450 108900 45760 20010 78760 5105 52000 26150 30550 45770 74000 88240 70840 26240 51060 57210 99700 47190 28870 53060 71930 71040 21030 65930 15080 76370 28620 24290 25640 92470 38710 28630 41130 34870 11600 13940 95240 109800 30750 31700 37820 97840 29460 38690 185900 6483 96110 51500 72440 45330 38160 23300 51520 36200 96760 24040 27660 44520 28180 128100 40340 30010 45590 39000 48070 36430 54000 81190 60640 101600 35430 51910 66400 45500 30360 29750 31760 102500 71080 87730 40130 34660 98380 30940 72510 48670 68350 72810 79950 27010 29280 38860 62740 44640 41270 29150 44430 32230 62030 42770 43090 26850 18630 105400 84530 37350 29110 36750 43080 116800 92780 89470 115900 76450 47870 34760 41360 45990 26040 39260 49180 14600 35370 38330 28650 67470 34060 49760 67500 115500 149700 39540 50950 111900 35990 58860 88410 33080 34830 37750 38040 57810 36010 30760 64400
2022-04-21 70160 77900 19360 31260 40560 35760 54530 54440 24210 80850 48620 42330 42850 66880 25980 68990 125000 88950 24840 65640 57580 39290 60250 63900 128100 81140 343500 35400 55990 49150 21190 26250 94240 20870 133000 42400 171800 49010 38530 101300 26380 40710 95240 166900 39440 108200 33360 32320 37340 32700 65830 51190 66830 43240 71530 34520 46980 102700 36260 47790 30520 47060 97160 12810 61180 61310 36840 52440 128800 119700 33820 35100 31590 41050 179900 19860 64660 7586 26290 23070 26720 157400 23800 180900 110700 16610 40360 123400 51070 37700 39920 27960 24520 85860 19780 61840 107400 105700 35200 108300 43850 52910 118300 48240 26890 42000 42960 36970 49720 37640 36210 28910 38230 105500 41050 68060 32540 45110 14410 49030 96380 43860 28080 37350 41810 60960 35770 30870 42340 126000 38960 34000 23770 25960 69480 40390 234500 42420 26980 36650 30650 89960 46740 26910 89660 49020 26490 63070 30650 82570 32220 52420 80800 32860 33650 29430 39070 89090 52460 37400 29570 67410 100100 36850 44340 94180 56090 28890 29170 44690 14770 40070 73950 44480 35110 43980 89660 59580 138100 59370 111400 46300 273500 120100 30190 95420 34830 33220 54330 175200 74820 56970 19910 20220 192300 37790 93730 16170 33300 19260 71810 23600 28420 50450 56000 47420 52520 33700 97500 27480 19990 27090 42470 49630 39000 106000 41520 106700 44060 67710 49470 28840 32310 52370 43180 35750 139200 53070 23570 68740 77300 21330 34110 79120 106200 44570 109200 45820 20060 78900 5133 52180 26180 30610 45960 74180 88390 70920 26280 51150 57360 99900 47250 28940 53240 72200 71070 21080 66060 15100 76500 28650 24360 25700 92640 38830 28690 41270 34990 11640 13960 95420 109900 30880 31880 37960 98100 29560 38730 186600 6552 96510 51590 72500 45560 38280 23360 51630 36260 97100 24100 27740 44580 28270 128600 40500 30100 45750 39110 48230 36480 54120 81310 60720 101800 35460 52070 66580 45670 30420 29820 31950 102700 71310 87980 40260 34730 98490 31050 72610 48830 68410 73050 80150 27080 29350 39030 62850 44830 41420 29240 44610 32320 62080 42870 43150 26880 18740 105600 84740 37450 29140 36790 43210 116900 93030 89640 116200 76540 48040 34830 41480 46050 26110 39350 49280 14660 35500 38420 28750 67760 34190 49910 67630 115700 150300 39600 51020 112300 36090 58980 88520 33130 34900 37770 38170 57980 36120 30810 64600
2022-04-22 70390 78170 19400 31310 40640 35860 54610 54560 24310 80910 48790 42380 42970 66960 26020 69080 125200 89030 24900 65710 57680 39340 60420 64060 128500 81300 343800 35470 56060 49250 21190 26320 94380 20910 133200 42450 171900 49110 38600 101500 26410 40720 95380 167200 39490 108400 33400 32370 37390 32740 65930 51200 66980 43340 71640 34600 47100 102800 36360 47820 30560 47160 97290 12830 61260 61430 36960 52590 129200 120000 33890 35210 31630 41120 180600 19940 64800 7620 26300 23130 26770 157900 23910 181100 110800 16650 40400 123700 51190 37790 39950 28030 24530 86000 19810 61900 107500 106200 35310 108500 44000 53020 118500 48280 26980 42060 43130 37100 49750 37770 36290 28980 38330 105800 41140 68270 32590 45140 14460 49110 96520 43930 28120 37440 41860 61110 35840 30930 42390 126500 38980 34110 23830 26030 69680 40440 235100 42490 27060 36720 30710 90100 46820 26930 89810 49120 26530 63160 30720 82620 32290 52550 80860 32900 33710 29500 39170 89240 52640 37490 29640 67730 100100 36890 44450 94340 56230 28910 29240 44780 14780 40130 74060 44550 35190 44100 89870 59670 138300 59420 111600 46400 274000 120200 30280 95560 34940 33300 54390 175500 74920 57100 19930 20290 192600 37880 93960 16200 33430 19270 71860 23660 28520 50570 56040 47510 52590 33790 97690 27540 20010 27210 42500 49790 39110 106200 41610 106900 44070 67840 49610 28960 32400 52460 43260 35860 139500 53210 23640 68910 77460 21360 34190 79260 106400 44680 109400 45890 20110 79010 5156 52320 26200 30650 46120 74310 88520 71010 26300 51220 57460 100100 47310 29000 53380 72340 71090 21130 66180 15130 76600 28680 24410 25760 92790 38920 28740 41350 35080 11670 13980 95570 110100 30980 31990 38070 98310 29640 38770 187100 6588 96830 51670 72570 45730 38340 23410 51730 36320 97360 24150 27800 44630 28340 128900 40620 30180 45880 39190 48360 36520 54220 81420 60780 102000 35490 52190 66710 45800 30470 29880 32050 102900 71480 88150 40370 34780 98600 31130 72700 48950 68460 73250 80300 27140 29390 39150 62950 44970 41540 29310 44750 32380 62130 42930 43220 26900 18830 105800 84910 37520 29160 36820 43320 117000 93220 89740 116400 76610 48180 34890 41580 46100 26170 39390 49360 14700 35580 38500 28830 67920 34290 50010 67700 115900 150700 39650 51090 112600 36170 59080 88630 33190 34940 37770 38270 58120 36210 30860 64760
2022-04-23 70590 78410 19440 31360 40720 35940 54680 54660 24400 80970 48920 42420 43070 67040 26040 69160 125400 89110 24960 65770 57770 39380 60560 64190 128700 81430 344100 35540 56120 49340 21190 26380 94500 20940 133300 42510 172100 49190 38650 101600 26440 40730 95500 167400 39550 108500 33430 32410 37430 32780 66020 51210 67100 43420 71710 34680 47200 102800 36440 47840 30600 47240 97410 12840 61330 61520 37060 52720 129400 120200 33950 35300 31680 41190 181200 20000 64930 7660 26300 23180 26810 158400 23990 181300 110900 16680 40440 123900 51290 37860 39990 28090 24540 86120 19840 61950 107600 106500 35410 108600 44110 53110 118700 48330 27060 42130 43270 37210 49780 37880 36360 29030 38400 106100 41220 68450 32630 45180 14490 49190 96640 43980 28160 37510 41910 61210 35900 30980 42430 126900 39000 34200 23890 26080 69850 40480 235600 42540 27120 36780 30770 90230 46890 26930 89940 49210 26570 63240 30780 82670 32340 52670 80930 32940 33760 29560 39260 89360 52800 37570 29710 68000 100200 36930 44550 94480 56350 28930 29290 44860 14790 40170 74150 44610 35250 44200 90040 59740 138600 59470 111700 46490 274500 120400 30360 95700 35030 33380 54450 175700 75010 57220 19970 20340 192800 37950 94150 16230 33540 19270 71910 23720 28610 50670 56080 47580 52650 33840 97850 27600 20010 27310 42520 49920 39200 106400 41690 107000 44090 67940 49720 29050 32480 52540 43320 35960 139800 53330 23710 69050 77600 21380 34260 79390 106600 44770 109500 45940 20140 79100 5175 52430 26210 30690 46260 74420 88640 71090 26320 51290 57550 100200 47370 29050 53500 72440 71100 21160 66280 15150 76680 28710 24450 25810 92920 39000 28790 41430 35160 11700 13990 95700 110200 31050 32080 38160 98480 29710 38810 187600 6616 97090 51740 72630 45880 38390 23460 51820 36370 97580 24190 27850 44680 28400 129100 40720 30240 45990 39260 48470 36560 54310 81520 60850 102100 35520 52300 66820 45910 30520 29920 32130 103100 71630 88280 40450 34830 98700 31200 72780 49050 68500 73410 80420 27180 29430 39260 63040 45090 41640 29380 44860 32440 62180 42990 43270 26910 18890 105900 85050 37570 29180 36840 43420 117200 93380 89820 116600 76690 48300 34940 41670 46160 26220 39440 49440 14740 35630 38560 28900 68070 34380 50080 67770 116100 151100 39700 51150 112800 36240 59180 88730 33240 34980 37770 38360 58240 36290 30900 64910
2022-04-24 70790 78640 19470 31400 40800 36020 54750 54750 24470 81030 49050 42460 43170 67110 26100 69240 125600 89180 25010 65830 57870 39430 60690 64320 129000 81560 344400 35600 56180 49430 21190 26440 94630 20970 133500 42570 172200 49270 38710 101800 26470 40740 95600 167700 39600 108700 33460 32450 37480 32810 66110 51220 67220 43500 71790 34750 47290 102800 36510 47850 30640 47320 97530 12850 61400 61620 37160 52840 129700 120500 34010 35390 31720 41260 181700 20050 65050 7710 26300 23230 26850 158800 24070 181500 111000 16700 40480 124100 51390 37930 40020 28160 24540 86240 19860 61990 107700 106900 35500 108800 44230 53200 118900 48390 27130 42190 43400 37320 49820 37980 36470 29090 38480 106300 41300 68630 32670 45220 14530 49270 96760 44030 28200 37590 41960 61390 35960 31030 42470 127300 39010 34290 23940 26140 70010 40520 236000 42600 27190 36840 30820 90340 46950 26940 90070 49290 26610 63330 30850 82740 32400 52780 81000 32980 33810 29620 39340 89480 52960 37650 29760 68290 100300 36970 44640 94620 56470 28950 29360 44940 14790 40230 74240 44670 35320 44300 90210 59820 138800 59520 111800 46580 274900 120500 30430 95830 35110 33450 54500 176000 75100 57330 19990 20390 193000 38030 94340 16260 33640 19270 71980 23770 28690 50780 56120 47650 52720 33930 98010 27650 20010 27400 42540 50040 39290 106600 41760 107100 44100 68040 49820 29140 32550 52630 43370 36050 140200 53450 23770 69190 77740 21400 34330 79510 106800 44860 109600 46000 20170 79190 5195 52540 26220 30730 46400 74520 88760 71160 26340 51360 57640 100400 47440 29100 53610 72540 71120 21200 66380 15170 76760 28740 24490 25860 93050 39070 28840 41500 35230 11720 14010 95830 110300 31130 32160 38250 98660 29780 38850 188000 6649 97350 51800 72700 46020 38470 23500 51910 36430 97790 24230 27900 44740 28460 129300 40830 30310 46100 39330 48580 36600 54390 81620 60910 102200 35550 52410 66930 46020 30560 29970 32220 103300 71770 88420 40540 34880 98790 31270 72860 49150 68530 73570 80540 27230 29470 39360 63130 45210 41740 29440 44970 32500 62220 43050 43330 26930 18960 106000 85190 37630 29210 36860 43510 117300 93530 89910 116800 76760 48410 34990 41750 46210 26260 39480 49520 14780 35730 38620 28970 68200 34470 50170 67830 116300 151500 39740 51220 113100 36310 59280 88830 33290 35030 37780 38450 58350 36360 30940 65040
2022-04-25 70970 78860 19510 31450 40870 36090 54810 54840 24540 81100 49170 42500 43260 67190 26150 69310 125800 89260 25060 65890 57960 39470 60820 64430 129200 81670 344700 35660 56240 49510 21190 26490 94740 21000 133600 42620 172300 49350 38750 101900 26500 40750 95720 167900 39660 108900 33490 32500 37520 32840 66190 51220 67320 43600 71880 34810 47380 102900 36580 47870 30680 47390 97650 12860 61480 61710 37250 52950 129900 120700 34070 35460 31760 41330 182200 20100 65170 7745 26300 23270 26890 159200 24140 181700 111100 16730 40520 124300 51480 38000 40060 28210 24540 86350 19880 62030 107800 107200 35580 108900 44340 53290 119100 48450 27190 42250 43510 37410 49870 38070 36560 29140 38560 106600 41370 68800 32710 45260 14560 49340 96870 44090 28240 37660 42010 61500 36020 31070 42510 127700 39020 34370 23980 26190 70150 40560 236400 42640 27250 36900 30870 90470 47020 26960 90180 49360 26650 63410 30900 82790 32450 52880 81070 33010 33850 29670 39420 89600 53100 37720 29820 68530 100400 37010 44730 94750 56580 28970 29410 45020 14800 40310 74330 44740 35380 44390 90360 59900 139000 59570 112000 46660 275300 120600 30500 95960 35180 33510 54560 176200 75180 57430 20020 20440 193200 38090 94490 16290 33730 19280 72050 23830 28760 50870 56160 47720 52770 33990 98150 27700 20010 27490 42550 50150 39360 106800 41830 107200 44110 68130 49930 29230 32620 52710 43420 36130 140400 53560 23830 69310 77870 21420 34390 79610 107000 44950 109800 46060 20200 79270 5213 52640 26230 30760 46520 74640 88880 71240 26360 51420 57730 100500 47500 29140 53700 72660 71130 21230 66480 15190 76840 28760 24530 25910 93170 39150 28880 41580 35300 11740 14020 95940 110300 31200 32230 38330 98810 29840 38890 188400 6687 97570 51860 72760 46150 38520 23540 52000 36480 97980 24270 27950 44780 28510 129500 40920 30370 46200 39390 48680 36640 54470 81710 60970 102300 35580 52510 67020 46110 30610 30010 32290 103400 71900 88560 40620 34920 98890 31330 72940 49240 68560 73710 80650 27270 29510 39450 63220 45320 41830 29490 45070 32550 62270 43120 43390 26940 19010 106100 85320 37680 29230 36880 43600 117400 93670 89990 116900 76830 48520 35040 41830 46260 26310 39540 49600 14820 35800 38680 29030 68350 34550 50270 67890 116400 151900 39790 51280 113300 36370 59370 88930 33330 35080 37790 38520 58460 36430 30980 65170
2022-04-26 71150 79070 19540 31490 40940 36160 54870 54920 24590 81170 49280 42540 43340 67260 26190 69380 125900 89330 25100 65950 58050 39510 60930 64540 129400 81780 345000 35710 56290 49580 21190 26530 94850 21030 133800 42680 172500 49420 38800 102000 26530 40760 95820 168100 39710 109000 33520 32540 37560 32870 66270 51230 67420 43680 71970 34860 47470 102900 36650 47880 30720 47450 97770 12860 61550 61790 37330 53050 130200 120900 34130 35540 31810 41400 182500 20140 65280 7773 26310 23320 26920 159500 24210 181900 111200 16760 40560 124400 51570 38070 40110 28260 24550 86460 19900 62070 107800 107500 35660 109100 44440 53370 119200 48550 27260 42310 43620 37510 49950 38160 36630 29180 38610 106800 41440 68960 32750 45360 14590 49410 96960 44140 28270 37720 42050 61600 36080 31110 42540 128100 39030 34440 24030 26230 70290 40600 236700 42690 27300 36950 30920 90580 47090 26960 90290 49430 26690 63470 30950 82880 32500 52970 81130 33050 33890 29720 39500 89710 53230 37780 29870 68660 100500 37050 44810 94870 56680 28990 29470 45100 14800 40360 74400 44800 35440 44480 90510 59970 139200 59620 112100 46740 275700 120800 30560 96060 35260 33570 54610 176400 75260 57520 20050 20470 193400 38160 94650 16320 33810 19280 72130 23870 28840 50960 56210 47780 52830 34050 98290 27740 20020 27570 42570 50260 39430 106900 41900 107400 44120 68210 50030 29310 32680 52790 43460 36210 140600 53660 23890 69430 77990 21450 34450 79720 107200 45030 109900 46120 20230 79350 5230 52730 26230 30790 46650 74710 88990 71320 26370 51480 57800 100600 47550 29180 53800 72840 71150 21260 66570 15210 76910 28790 24560 25950 93280 39220 28920 41640 35360 11770 14040 96050 110400 31260 32320 38410 98960 29900 38930 188800 6719 97790 51920 72820 46270 38600 23580 52090 36530 98160 24300 27990 44830 28570 129800 41010 30420 46290 39450 48780 36680 54550 81800 61030 102400 35610 52600 67120 46200 30650 30060 32360 103600 72020 88680 40690 34960 98980 31390 73020 49320 68590 73840 80750 27310 29560 39540 63300 45420 41920 29550 45160 32600 62320 43190 43440 26950 19070 106200 85440 37750 29280 36900 43680 117500 93800 90100 117100 76900 48620 35090 41910 46320 26350 39590 49670 14850 35840 38740 29090 68510 34630 50370 67950 116600 152200 39840 51350 113500 36440 59470 89020 33380 35130 37790 38600 58560 36490 31020 65290

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-04-20 to 2022-04-26

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-04-19 69699 77368 19284 31156 40388 35482 54378 54212 23825 80742 48298 42254 42622 66739 25877 68806 124640 88803 24710 65518 57402 39208 59925 63602 127508 80849 342852 35248 55846 48941 21183 26112 93962 20802 132753 42291 171450 48832 38384 101019 26286 40675 94754 166288 39339 107568 33302 32227 37258 32622 65627 51160 66550 42953 71177 34348 46754 102413 36076 47718 30432 46873 96928 12785 61042 61104 36596 52154 128157 119096 33678 34883 31503 40895 177520 19706 64387 7447 26256 22953 26619 156291 23596 180537 110559 16547 40281 122978 50841 37539 39830 27813 24479 85606 19728 61711 107205 104821 34987 107991 43399 52510 117894 48074 26723 41886 42636 36709 49598 37385 35963 28791 37932 104854 40872 67672 32466 44991 14334 48783 95923 43642 27914 37175 41717 60394 35641 30767 42234 125010 38914 33777 23653 25836 69088 40303 232646 42293 26828 36505 30532 89493 46495 26852 89373 48835 26412 62750 30513 82469 32100 52156 80680 32798 33537 29295 38870 88818 52088 37211 29436 66295 99913 36783 44123 93863 55818 28840 28917 44526 14741 39933 73546 44252 34962 43749 89272 59302 137564 59265 110861 46091 272456 119708 30025 94929 34630 33049 54204 174545 74598 56703 19835 20023 191797 37616 93288 16104 33052 19250 71676 23424 28227 50220 55921 47254 52387 33385 97149 27355 19951 26860 42423 49342 38795 105586 41352 106404 44024 67452 49015 28617 32135 52195 42871 35530 138136 52796 23425 68415 76983 21294 33961 78856 105681 44371 108825 45705 19983 78680 5089 51926 26117 30518 45643 73738 88149 70770 26227 51004 57007 99596 47128 28835 52979 71737 71024 21001 65855 15062 76296 28605 24254 25596 92368 38649 28597 40961 34809 11581 13928 95138 109717 30691 31521 37747 97704 29397 38656 185470 6409 95909 51446 72389 45218 38116 23259 51450 36154 96594 24015 27618 44482 28131 127732 40261 29957 45508 38949 47986 36405 53926 81113 60598 101389 35413 51822 66319 45417 30322 29645 31575 102342 70955 87400 40052 34631 98302 30890 72449 48591 68320 72693 79855 26965 29204 38789 62657 44543 41190 29102 44344 32186 61993 42660 43042 26838 18585 105363 84418 37223 29082 36733 43003 116722 92661 89306 115752 76399 47778 34716 41290 45954 25997 39198 49123 14572 35253 38278 28595 67224 33987 49558 67361 115341 149360 39512 50896 111724 35932 58780 88321 33036 34750 37742 37979 57717 35950 30732 64293
2022-04-20 69840 77510 19310 31190 40430 35550 54430 54290 23880 80810 48360 42300 42680 66820 25910 68840 124700 88880 24730 65570 57470 39250 60000 63680 127600 80900 343000 35290 55890 49000 21190 26140 94060 20820 132900 42350 171600 48880 38440 101100 26310 40680 94860 166400 39400 107700 33340 32250 37310 32650 65680 51170 66600 43010 71240 34390 46810 102400 36130 47730 30450 46920 97050 12790 61100 61180 36640 52230 128300 119300 33720 34940 31540 40940 177800 19740 64480 7475 26270 22980 26640 156500 23640 180700 110600 16570 40320 123100 50890 37590 39860 27850 24480 85680 19750 61750 107300 105000 35040 108100 43530 52600 118000 48120 26770 41950 42700 36770 49630 37440 36010 28830 37980 105000 40910 67780 32500 45040 14360 48820 95990 43690 27950 37230 41770 60470 35700 30800 42250 125300 38920 33820 23680 25880 69170 40340 232900 42330 26870 36530 30570 89570 46550 26860 89440 48880 26460 62800 30550 82510 32130 52210 80740 32840 33570 29320 38930 88880 52170 37250 29470 66490 100000 36820 44190 93940 55890 28860 28960 44590 14750 39970 73610 44300 35000 43810 89360 59370 137700 59310 111000 46150 272700 119800 30070 95010 34670 33090 54260 174700 74660 56760 19860 20070 191900 37660 93340 16120 33100 19260 71710 23460 28270 50290 55950 47310 52450 33450 97230 27390 19950 26930 42430 49420 38840 105700 41410 106500 44030 67500 49080 28670 32170 52270 42920 35590 138300 52880 23470 68490 77060 21320 34000 78930 105800 44440 108900 45750 20000 78740 5104 51970 26120 30540 45740 73810 88230 70850 26230 51060 57060 99600 47180 28870 53030 71830 71030 21020 65930 15080 76350 28640 24280 25630 92450 38700 28630 41020 34860 11590 13950 95190 109800 30730 31600 37810 97800 29440 38700 185700 6447 96080 51480 72450 45300 38170 23280 51530 36190 96700 24060 27640 44550 28170 127900 40330 30000 45580 38980 48050 36460 53970 81210 60640 101500 35430 51880 66370 45500 30350 29690 31630 102400 71020 87510 40110 34680 98410 30930 72490 48650 68330 72790 79920 27000 29230 38850 62700 44620 41240 29130 44400 32220 62030 42720 43080 26840 18630 105400 84480 37260 29110 36740 43060 116800 92730 89360 115800 76460 47840 34760 41350 46010 26030 39230 49190 14590 35280 38320 28650 67340 34050 49630 67400 115400 149600 39570 50940 111800 35980 58860 88390 33080 34780 37740 38040 57800 36000 30750 64380
2022-04-21 70050 77780 19340 31230 40500 35680 54490 54390 23980 80860 48460 42350 42760 66920 25960 68910 124900 88980 24780 65670 57560 39310 60100 63790 127800 81010 343400 35350 55950 49080 21190 26190 94170 20850 133200 42420 171800 48960 38520 101200 26350 40690 95010 166600 39480 107800 33390 32300 37360 32690 65770 51180 66700 43100 71350 34440 46910 102500 36190 47750 30490 46970 97200 12790 61180 61280 36690 52350 128600 119500 33780 35010 31590 41010 178600 19810 64600 7528 26280 23010 26670 156800 23690 181000 110800 16590 40370 123200 50990 37660 39910 27910 24500 85820 19790 61800 107400 105300 35130 108300 43710 52750 118100 48250 26840 42050 42880 36850 49720 37540 36130 28870 38090 105300 40990 67950 32550 45110 14380 48890 96110 43760 28000 37290 41840 60700 35770 30850 42270 125700 38930 33900 23720 25920 69280 40400 233600 42390 26920 36580 30620 89700 46630 26870 89560 48950 26520 62890 30610 82600 32180 52310 80830 32890 33620 29380 39010 89000 52280 37330 29530 66810 100100 36880 44270 94070 55990 28890 29050 44660 14750 40040 73690 44360 35060 43910 89530 59460 137900 59380 111100 46230 273100 119900 30130 95150 34760 33150 54310 174900 74750 56870 19900 20110 192100 37730 93470 16150 33160 19260 71800 23500 28350 50370 55980 47360 52510 33580 97380 27430 19970 27020 42440 49550 38920 105900 41480 106600 44040 67560 49220 28730 32240 52360 43000 35660 138700 52990 23530 68630 77180 21360 34060 79040 106000 44530 109000 45810 20030 78830 5125 52060 26130 30570 45910 73920 88350 70960 26240 51110 57150 99800 47240 28920 53110 72010 71050 21050 66010 15100 76430 28680 24310 25680 92600 38780 28680 41110 34930 11610 13980 95310 109900 30800 31730 37870 97960 29490 38760 186100 6504 96270 51550 72560 45410 38290 23320 51630 36250 96860 24110 27690 44630 28220 128300 40440 30050 45680 39040 48140 36520 54050 81340 60760 101600 35470 51970 66470 45590 30400 29730 31760 102600 71120 87680 40190 34730 98540 30990 72580 48720 68350 72910 80010 27040 29280 38950 62780 44720 41320 29170 44490 32270 62090 42790 43140 26850 18680 105600 84610 37340 29150 36750 43130 117000 92870 89470 116000 76560 47930 34800 41420 46100 26070 39290 49280 14610 35380 38380 28710 67560 34120 49740 67490 115600 149900 39640 51020 112000 36040 58960 88480 33130 34840 37760 38120 57910 36070 30820 64510
2022-04-22 70210 77990 19370 31280 40560 35760 54540 54470 24030 80920 48540 42390 42840 67010 26000 68960 125100 89070 24810 65730 57640 39360 60190 63870 127900 81090 343700 35400 56000 49140 21190 26220 94260 20870 133400 42470 171900 49040 38580 101300 26370 40700 95130 166800 39560 108000 33430 32330 37410 32720 65840 51190 66770 43170 71420 34490 46990 102500 36250 47760 30520 47010 97330 12800 61240 61370 36740 52450 128800 119700 33830 35070 31640 41060 179000 19850 64700 7562 26290 23050 26700 157100 23730 181200 110900 16610 40420 123400 51060 37720 39950 27950 24500 85930 19830 61840 107600 105500 35190 108400 43850 52840 118200 48320 26890 42130 42970 36920 49770 37630 36210 28910 38170 105400 41050 68090 32590 45170 14400 48930 96200 43800 28040 37340 41900 60840 35830 30890 42290 126100 38940 33960 23760 25960 69370 40450 234100 42440 26970 36620 30670 89800 46700 26880 89650 49000 26570 62950 30670 82660 32220 52400 80910 32940 33660 29420 39090 89090 52390 37380 29580 67040 100200 36930 44350 94180 56080 28910 29100 44730 14760 40090 73760 44400 35110 43990 89640 59530 138000 59440 111200 46290 273400 120000 30190 95230 34820 33200 54350 175100 74810 56950 19920 20150 192300 37780 93590 16170 33220 19260 71870 23540 28410 50450 56000 47410 52570 33660 97510 27470 19970 27100 42450 49650 38970 106000 41540 106600 44050 67620 49320 28790 32290 52430 43050 35730 138900 53090 23580 68740 77280 21390 34110 79130 106100 44600 109100 45870 20060 78900 5145 52130 26140 30600 46030 74000 88450 71050 26250 51170 57220 99800 47290 28960 53170 72130 71060 21080 66090 15120 76490 28720 24340 25730 92710 38830 28710 41160 34980 11630 14000 95390 110000 30850 31810 37940 98090 29530 38810 186400 6547 96450 51600 72640 45500 38380 23350 51730 36300 97000 24150 27730 44690 28270 128600 40520 30100 45740 39080 48230 36570 54110 81450 60810 101700 35500 52050 66540 45680 30440 29780 31840 102700 71200 87800 40260 34790 98640 31040 72650 48790 68360 73020 80090 27070 29310 39020 62850 44810 41390 29200 44560 32300 62130 42840 43190 26860 18720 105600 84710 37380 29190 36760 43190 117100 92970 89540 116100 76640 48020 34840 41480 46170 26100 39320 49360 14630 35440 38430 28770 67700 34180 49820 67530 115700 150200 39700 51090 112100 36100 59050 88560 33180 34880 37760 38190 58000 36120 30860 64610
2022-04-23 70370 78190 19400 31320 40610 35840 54580 54540 24080 80980 48620 42430 42910 67100 26030 69010 125200 89140 24850 65790 57730 39410 60280 63950 128000 81170 343900 35450 56040 49200 21190 26260 94350 20900 133500 42530 172000 49110 38630 101400 26390 40700 95240 167000 39630 108100 33470 32360 37460 32750 65900 51200 66840 43240 71470 34530 47060 102500 36300 47770 30550 47060 97460 12800 61290 61450 36800 52540 128900 119800 33880 35130 31690 41120 179400 19900 64790 7600 26300 23080 26720 157400 23780 181500 111000 16630 40460 123500 51120 37770 39990 27990 24510 86030 19860 61880 107700 105800 35250 108500 43970 52920 118400 48400 26940 42210 43060 36990 49820 37700 36290 28950 38230 105600 41110 68230 32630 45220 14430 48980 96270 43850 28070 37400 41960 60940 35890 30930 42310 126400 38950 34010 23800 26000 69470 40490 234400 42480 27020 36660 30720 89890 46760 26880 89740 49050 26610 63000 30720 82730 32250 52470 80990 32990 33690 29450 39160 89170 52490 37420 29610 67250 100300 36990 44430 94270 56170 28930 29140 44790 14760 40130 73830 44440 35150 44070 89750 59580 138200 59480 111300 46360 273700 120100 30240 95320 34880 33250 54390 175200 74870 57030 19940 20190 192400 37830 93700 16190 33280 19270 71920 23570 28470 50520 56030 47460 52620 33730 97620 27510 19980 27180 42450 49740 39030 106100 41590 106700 44050 67670 49410 28850 32340 52500 43100 35790 139100 53170 23640 68840 77380 21410 34160 79220 106300 44670 109200 45920 20080 78950 5163 52190 26150 30620 46160 74070 88550 71140 26250 51210 57280 99900 47340 29000 53230 72250 71070 21100 66180 15140 76550 28750 24360 25770 92800 38880 28750 41230 35030 11650 14020 95460 110100 30900 31900 38000 98190 29570 38870 186600 6587 96620 51650 72720 45590 38460 23370 51820 36340 97130 24190 27750 44760 28310 128800 40590 30150 45820 39130 48310 36630 54170 81560 60860 101800 35540 52110 66610 45760 30480 29810 31910 102800 71280 87910 40320 34840 98740 31090 72710 48860 68370 73130 80160 27110 29350 39100 62920 44890 41470 29240 44630 32340 62170 42900 43240 26860 18760 105700 84790 37430 29220 36770 43250 117200 93070 89610 116200 76710 48100 34880 41540 46240 26140 39360 49440 14650 35480 38480 28810 67840 34240 49880 67580 115800 150500 39760 51160 112300 36160 59130 88640 33230 34920 37770 38250 58080 36170 30910 64700
2022-04-24 70530 78360 19420 31360 40680 35900 54630 54610 24130 81050 48690 42480 42970 67190 26080 69070 125300 89240 24870 65850 57810 39460 60380 64040 128200 81250 344200 35490 56080 49260 21200 26300 94430 20930 133700 42600 172200 49180 38680 101400 26420 40710 95340 167100 39700 108200 33510 32390 37500 32780 65970 51200 66910 43300 71550 34580 47130 102500 36350 47780 30580 47100 97580 12800 61360 61520 36850 52620 129200 120000 33930 35180 31720 41170 179800 19930 64880 7643 26300 23110 26750 157600 23830 181700 111100 16650 40500 123600 51190 37820 40030 28040 24510 86150 19890 61920 107800 106000 35320 108700 44080 53010 118500 48490 26990 42280 43150 37050 49880 37770 36380 28990 38290 105800 41160 68360 32660 45280 14450 49040 96360 43890 28100 37460 42010 61090 35950 30970 42330 126700 38950 34080 23840 26040 69570 40530 234800 42520 27070 36700 30760 89970 46820 26890 89820 49100 26660 63060 30760 82810 32300 52550 81070 33030 33730 29490 39220 89260 52580 37460 29650 67450 100500 37040 44500 94370 56250 28960 29190 44850 14760 40190 73920 44470 35200 44140 89890 59650 138300 59530 111400 46420 274000 120200 30290 95420 34940 33290 54430 175400 74930 57100 19960 20230 192600 37880 93800 16220 33340 19270 71990 23610 28520 50590 56060 47510 52680 33810 97730 27540 19980 27250 42460 49820 39090 106200 41650 106800 44060 67720 49500 28900 32390 52580 43160 35840 139300 53270 23680 68940 77490 21430 34200 79310 106500 44750 109300 45970 20100 79020 5183 52270 26150 30640 46270 74150 88650 71220 26260 51270 57370 100000 47400 29040 53300 72360 71070 21120 66260 15150 76640 28780 24390 25800 92910 38940 28780 41280 35080 11660 14040 95560 110200 30940 31970 38060 98310 29620 38910 186800 6629 96780 51690 72810 45670 38540 23400 51900 36390 97250 24230 27800 44830 28350 129000 40670 30190 45900 39180 48400 36690 54230 81650 60920 101900 35570 52180 66690 45840 30520 29860 32000 102900 71370 88030 40400 34890 98880 31130 72790 48920 68380 73250 80250 27140 29390 39160 63000 44960 41540 29280 44690 32380 62230 42950 43300 26870 18800 105800 84880 37480 29260 36770 43310 117400 93190 89690 116300 76800 48180 34930 41600 46310 26180 39400 49530 14670 35550 38520 28860 67970 34290 49960 67640 115900 150700 39820 51220 112400 36210 59210 88750 33270 34970 37780 38320 58170 36220 30950 64800
2022-04-25 70710 78560 19450 31400 40760 35980 54680 54690 24200 81110 48780 42520 43040 67280 26140 69130 125500 89340 24910 65920 57890 39520 60470 64120 128300 81370 344500 35540 56140 49310 21200 26340 94520 20960 133900 42670 172300 49260 38740 101600 26450 40710 95500 167300 39790 108400 33550 32430 37540 32800 66040 51210 67010 43390 71640 34630 47200 102500 36410 47780 30620 47140 97720 12810 61440 61610 36900 52710 129400 120200 33990 35240 31780 41220 180300 19990 64990 7692 26310 23140 26790 157900 23870 182000 111200 16690 40560 123800 51270 37880 40080 28090 24510 86280 19930 61960 107900 106200 35380 108900 44220 53110 118600 48600 27050 42360 43240 37120 49950 37850 36480 29030 38390 106000 41230 68480 32710 45350 14470 49090 96440 43950 28140 37510 42070 61270 36030 31000 42340 127000 38960 34150 23880 26080 69680 40580 235200 42570 27130 36740 30810 90090 46890 26890 89910 49160 26720 63130 30820 82890 32350 52630 81150 33080 33760 29540 39290 89360 52690 37520 29700 67680 100600 37090 44580 94480 56350 28980 29260 44920 14760 40270 74010 44520 35260 44230 90030 59720 138500 59590 111500 46490 274300 120400 30350 95520 35020 33340 54480 175500 75000 57190 19990 20280 192700 37950 93930 16240 33390 19270 72080 23650 28580 50670 56090 47560 52740 33880 97880 27580 19980 27330 42460 49940 39150 106400 41720 106900 44060 67770 49620 28960 32440 52660 43200 35920 139700 53360 23740 69070 77590 21460 34250 79410 106700 44820 109400 46040 20130 79100 5202 52360 26160 30670 46390 74270 88780 71320 26260 51320 57470 100100 47460 29090 53380 72500 71080 21140 66350 15180 76720 28830 24420 25850 93050 39010 28820 41340 35130 11690 14060 95660 110300 30990 32060 38120 98450 29660 38970 187100 6677 96960 51750 72890 45770 38630 23430 52000 36450 97390 24270 27850 44890 28400 129300 40750 30240 45970 39240 48490 36750 54300 81770 61010 102000 35620 52250 66760 45930 30560 29910 32090 103100 71450 88190 40480 34950 99010 31180 72880 48990 68390 73370 80330 27190 29440 39230 63100 45060 41600 29330 44760 32420 62300 43020 43380 26870 18840 105900 85000 37550 29310 36780 43370 117500 93330 89770 116500 76920 48260 34970 41660 46380 26230 39450 49610 14690 35640 38580 28920 68120 34360 50080 67700 116100 151000 39870 51310 112600 36270 59320 88850 33320 35030 37780 38380 58260 36270 31010 64890
2022-04-26 70870 78790 19480 31450 40830 36070 54730 54770 24260 81180 48860 42570 43120 67390 26180 69200 125600 89440 24950 66020 57980 39580 60560 64210 128400 81470 344800 35590 56190 49380 21200 26380 94600 20990 134100 42730 172500 49360 38820 101700 26480 40720 95630 167500 39870 108500 33600 32470 37590 32840 66120 51220 67120 43480 71750 34680 47290 102500 36470 47790 30650 47180 97850 12810 61510 61710 36960 52800 129600 120300 34040 35300 31840 41290 180800 20040 65100 7738 26320 23180 26820 158100 23920 182300 111400 16710 40610 123900 51350 37940 40130 28140 24520 86390 19970 61990 108000 106400 35450 109000 44360 53210 118700 48720 27100 42440 43370 37190 50030 37950 36580 29070 38460 106200 41310 68610 32750 45450 14500 49140 96540 44010 28180 37570 42150 61450 36090 31050 42360 127400 38960 34210 23920 26120 69780 40640 235700 42620 27180 36790 30860 90200 46980 26900 90000 49220 26770 63200 30870 82980 32390 52740 81230 33130 33800 29590 39360 89460 52790 37570 29750 67890 100700 37150 44670 94580 56440 29010 29340 44990 14770 40340 74100 44560 35310 44310 90180 59790 138700 59660 111600 46560 274700 120500 30400 95620 35080 33390 54520 175800 75070 57290 20020 20320 192900 38010 94060 16260 33450 19280 72160 23700 28640 50750 56120 47610 52790 33990 98000 27630 19980 27420 42470 50040 39200 106500 41790 107000 44070 67820 49740 29010 32510 52740 43270 35980 139900 53470 23800 69200 77690 21490 34300 79520 106800 44900 109500 46100 20160 79170 5221 52460 26170 30700 46520 74370 88910 71410 26260 51370 57570 100200 47510 29130 53460 72680 71090 21170 66430 15200 76780 28860 24450 25900 93170 39080 28860 41410 35190 11710 14080 95770 110400 31040 32160 38180 98590 29700 39030 187400 6723 97120 51800 72990 45850 38720 23460 52090 36500 97520 24310 27890 44960 28440 129600 40840 30290 46040 39300 48600 36800 54370 81880 61090 102100 35660 52330 66850 46010 30600 29950 32200 103200 71540 88350 40560 35000 99130 31230 72960 49050 68400 73480 80400 27220 29500 39310 63180 45150 41690 29370 44830 32460 62370 43080 43450 26880 18880 106000 85120 37620 29370 36780 43440 117600 93460 89870 116600 77020 48350 35020 41730 46450 26260 39510 49690 14720 35710 38630 28970 68310 34420 50210 67750 116200 151200 39940 51400 112700 36330 59420 88940 33360 35090 37790 38450 58350 36320 31070 65010

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.