COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-04-25 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-04-25

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-04-25

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-03-242022-03-252022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-03-232022-03-232022-03-232022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252021-12-282022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-03-232021-12-282022-03-252022-03-222022-03-232022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242021-12-292022-03-222021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-02-062022-02-062022-03-222022-02-062022-03-232022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242021-12-292022-03-242022-03-232021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-02-062022-02-062022-03-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-232022-02-062022-01-242022-03-232021-12-292022-02-062022-03-192022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-252022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-03-232022-01-242022-03-142022-01-242022-03-252022-03-232022-03-252022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-252022-03-252022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-232022-03-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-03-232022-03-272022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-232022-01-242022-03-212022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-03-212022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-02-222022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-03-242022-01-242022-03-282022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-162022-03-252022-02-062022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-03-162022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-242022-03-232022-03-232022-03-232022-03-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-162022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-03-282022-03-262022-03-232022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-242022-03-222022-03-232022-03-23
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 137 178 1525 804 437 780 1774 1382 167 1253 309 154 135 398 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 326 266 1199 254 17521 1550 3317 168 319 98 4696 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 80 3217 6862 1115 3849 134 1160 153 2002 167 611 200 234 274 132 1418 257 1362 119 1222 456 433 192 2422 2091 214 270 563 4793 1173 962 949 128 7754 684 302 121 64 774 72 3960 513 7900 4326 70 1426 372 1559 1550 132 862 267 303 106 896 4767 2335 1159 308 2036 1878 313 1747 663 1048 1254 885 1468 183 1560 891 1505 441 159 1625 976 1274 71 1353 3625 1652 982 154 226 2291 930 144 560 6120 103 1022 779 105 2871 149 6944 1464 848 1510 119 288 1261 77 3318 174 120 195 1115 246 1188 225 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 288 1188 1044 2486 274 134 1158 238 1474 1689 886 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 278 250 426 185 4514 199 838 238 803 3519 139 1238 694 524 173 229 580 540 463 147 3625 516 696 246 2554 148 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1347 381 825 68 1495 532 1263 162 4887 168 230 105 1141 1531 659 137 1941 1111 180 3559 220 131 1868 300 835 131 2965 442 209 277 1790 57 4269 264 210 83 58 2223 3085 539 331 74 2466 197 235 2322 110 1632 1804 1026 60 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 293 143 117 159 147 53 75 4748 5886 136 1365 1073 4438 126 1175 8405 632 530 2347 2862 1130 1408 87 1599 149 2982 170 131 1470 162 4031 1059 875 1101 128 1007 131 2510 3022 2379 332 1253 1583 232 199 136 992 1278 3842 3631 297 198 929 4460 135 2652 1725 116 2290 3757 95 844 990 249 1394 1055 812 237 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 102 1143 364 256 259 4283 279 217 1301 1098 1167 804 161 1077 245 808 133 922 2543 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 244 139 796 98 1077 225 132 130 287
Days since peak 78 78 91 32 31 78 91 119 78 91 91 31 91 33 33 33 33 91 91 91 91 91 33 34 91 33 91 91 91 31 118 31 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 33 91 91 91 91 33 91 31 91 33 118 31 34 33 33 91 33 91 35 91 117 34 117 91 91 34 34 33 91 91 91 91 33 78 78 34 78 33 91 30 91 91 91 91 29 91 34 91 91 33 91 117 32 33 117 91 91 91 33 78 78 32 78 91 91 78 91 91 31 78 91 78 34 33 91 91 91 34 91 91 91 91 31 33 78 91 33 117 78 37 91 91 34 91 31 62 91 91 91 32 33 91 42 91 31 33 31 91 33 91 32 91 91 91 91 91 91 32 91 91 78 31 31 91 31 91 91 78 91 118 91 91 91 91 91 31 33 32 34 91 33 33 29 91 91 31 91 91 33 32 32 91 91 32 32 91 91 91 119 91 33 91 91 91 91 91 78 33 91 35 78 117 91 34 91 33 34 35 91 78 91 31 91 91 33 62 34 33 91 30 91 34 91 34 33 32 91 28 91 78 34 40 31 78 91 33 34 40 91 34 33 91 33 91 62 119 31 91 91 91 91 91 91 31 32 33 33 33 32 34 91 91 32 78 91 91 31 91 91 78 33 91 91 91 78 34 91 31 91 34 33 91 34 78 91 91 91 33 91 30 91 91 91 33 91 91 31 32 33 91 78 91 91 31 33 91 91 33 91 91 40 91 91 32 91 91 33 91 91 91 34 91 91 91 91 117 91 91 91 91 91 35 91 28 30 33 91 34 34 91 91 91 91 33 91 91 62 33 91 78 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 33 34 91 34 91 32 34 33 33
Last total 70435 78256 19366 31334 40549 35841 54641 54560 24137 81055 48573 42412 42798 67039 26050 68947 125066 89244 24854 65779 57700 39402 60168 63898 128043 81092 343969 35393 56015 49151 21209 26271 94276 20863 133512 42475 171965 49050 38618 101327 26401 40708 95162 166935 39598 108024 33464 32339 37466 32733 65850 51207 66807 43209 71517 34499 46948 102528 36288 47750 30579 47102 97390 12801 61225 61324 36759 52390 128938 119681 33832 35097 31644 41102 179533 19895 64693 7659 26293 23095 26710 157285 23748 181479 110995 16637 40454 123388 51048 37756 39982 27918 24522 85967 19856 61938 107649 105516 35136 108430 43968 52956 118287 48500 26863 42132 43073 36905 49818 37654 36427 28925 38272 105491 41072 68094 32617 45226 14437 48957 96184 43806 28018 37362 41994 60953 35880 30895 42352 126387 38944 33930 23773 25961 69502 40468 234764 42446 26981 36630 30706 89813 46721 26876 89688 49006 26578 62973 30600 82711 32218 52485 80990 32958 33661 29431 39093 89121 52384 37350 29570 67221 100294 36926 44360 94177 56136 28935 29195 44754 14757 40132 73839 44437 35085 43949 89758 59525 138015 59468 111234 46303 273625 119871 30189 95258 34865 33206 54519 175143 74848 56896 19920 20135 192343 37787 93594 16186 33225 19260 71942 23591 28381 50456 56120 47471 52615 33812 97544 27472 19970 27203 42468 49665 38978 106103 41517 106646 44070 67694 49434 28824 32351 52476 43059 35740 139354 53036 23602 68762 77434 21402 34136 79105 106287 44600 109184 45878 20023 78930 5188 52139 26174 30613 46175 74018 88588 71067 26245 51222 57253 99879 47361 28957 53202 72483 71088 21093 66083 15147 76553 28771 24351 25735 92831 38869 28709 41172 34988 11638 14003 95462 110024 30878 31886 37967 98163 29537 38806 187423 6540 96410 51634 72720 45468 38480 23386 51734 36318 97016 24150 27716 44713 28308 128949 40506 30101 45732 39103 48314 36528 54220 81493 60906 101730 35542 52035 66567 45638 30455 29782 31913 102756 71237 87768 40265 34799 98796 31041 72689 48727 68366 73011 80130 27088 29318 39037 62887 44816 41411 29229 44525 32319 62222 42823 43256 26875 18709 105671 84722 37390 29208 36771 43248 117215 93035 89576 116129 76721 48015 34859 41503 46175 26076 39352 49356 14674 35587 38439 28765 67848 34163 49830 67610 115771 150124 39755 51099 112212 36086 59054 88635 33176 34898 37770 38153 57970 36138 30898 64605
Last daily increment 121 145 16 22 24 67 33 50 48 50 28 27 23 53 24 14 62 45 18 34 46 25 25 49 69 32 159 20 29 39 5 15 46 13 112 18 97 33 46 41 13 5 58 101 36 77 30 19 31 16 40 4 32 41 53 15 29 19 22 5 16 23 74 0 37 42 21 36 108 98 18 27 26 25 306 32 50 25 2 19 10 139 26 150 64 17 36 46 28 32 28 18 4 61 13 37 86 112 22 78 80 72 67 63 19 28 58 19 42 45 54 18 46 106 26 67 23 41 11 24 52 18 9 39 57 86 43 14 17 186 5 26 18 15 59 22 330 25 20 26 31 46 31 3 38 36 33 33 14 32 20 70 43 26 18 14 28 38 36 18 23 145 67 25 45 50 42 23 36 35 1 28 47 30 26 24 73 38 75 28 57 36 157 60 32 53 44 34 42 91 37 21 15 20 94 29 55 10 26 2 33 23 27 32 41 44 42 55 65 21 0 52 7 55 24 93 24 44 10 40 65 36 29 47 27 40 189 38 27 59 69 28 26 33 94 34 55 32 10 44 12 27 1 16 65 39 56 49 5 32 47 33 35 24 35 114 9 9 32 5 56 21 8 20 62 37 18 37 25 8 12 48 40 40 58 37 81 20 22 145 29 78 30 54 30 54 18 37 22 66 18 14 31 27 211 34 20 37 24 56 23 51 62 43 55 10 26 30 37 16 11 48 71 34 57 31 25 86 39 34 16 8 46 50 26 22 31 44 30 38 17 32 28 42 29 27 5 21 54 55 28 21 8 24 76 45 39 63 54 37 30 29 33 10 26 45 6 55 22 28 86 16 38 31 66 138 39 35 77 27 57 49 23 18 4 21 39 32 24 51
Last week 624 747 72 164 159 300 262 348 273 314 245 154 171 292 169 137 416 347 134 220 298 178 233 295 536 230 1066 150 166 207 21 144 308 61 742 183 502 212 229 300 105 32 401 641 248 441 155 106 203 110 213 39 249 251 321 150 194 111 194 30 123 229 458 10 223 208 156 231 755 571 138 185 137 198 1737 162 302 186 35 132 96 988 150 923 428 89 169 399 199 211 150 99 42 345 116 227 428 672 145 433 473 367 381 365 140 240 350 193 210 268 356 133 289 622 194 415 150 236 97 171 252 158 101 177 269 481 239 126 118 1231 30 151 117 122 412 161 1749 150 152 125 170 309 223 23 298 166 158 213 112 230 113 324 299 154 125 133 221 291 280 137 127 790 361 142 233 306 311 93 234 227 15 186 284 178 129 190 475 203 441 191 354 203 1029 332 161 312 217 156 316 568 246 189 83 105 537 170 300 82 170 10 256 166 149 232 195 209 226 343 375 115 16 301 44 320 181 507 163 234 44 244 381 203 159 279 177 210 982 239 167 330 449 104 175 243 602 222 349 172 64 240 93 200 48 91 449 268 429 290 18 202 244 264 233 118 220 588 63 86 225 85 251 139 94 135 354 217 110 206 178 59 70 318 306 177 329 216 442 134 142 839 127 498 164 317 243 304 122 279 161 415 130 96 229 170 1012 236 139 219 146 323 123 284 373 272 319 128 208 231 218 127 128 275 401 282 366 201 168 492 149 225 136 45 315 262 109 112 244 229 266 221 124 174 131 188 157 207 29 124 294 299 167 124 37 243 474 362 257 361 315 233 142 207 218 79 146 232 92 273 148 169 564 176 256 241 422 751 255 193 476 154 271 314 135 127 27 168 241 183 164 296
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162022-01-242022-01-242021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-202022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-06-062022-01-242021-10-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-10-192022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-12-282021-07-152021-12-292021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-10-18 --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192022-01-242021-08-302021-09-012022-01-242021-11-032021-12-282021-07-142022-01-242021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-132022-01-24 --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2022-01-242021-08-242021-06-292022-01-242021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-152022-01-242021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-15 --2022-01-24 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132022-01-242022-01-242021-09-02 --2022-01-242021-08-212021-09-062021-12-282021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-122022-01-242021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-12-282021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-152021-10-142021-09-022022-01-242022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-112021-07-162022-01-242021-07-29 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-022022-01-242021-07-152021-12-282021-07-122021-09-15 --2022-01-242021-07-112022-01-242022-01-242021-12-27 --2021-09-032021-11-222022-01-242021-07-11 --2022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242021-10-182022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-06-29 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-12-30 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192022-01-242021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-162022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-09-012021-08-17 --2022-01-242021-07-162021-07-16 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-10-152021-07-132022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-10-182021-07-152022-01-24 --2021-08-172022-01-242021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072022-01-242021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022022-01-24 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-12-28 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 1126 1275 89 5 97 127 1599 2241 604 3477 4581 276 70 139 152 144 1658 2285 379 3307 943 127 2250 126 962 202 293 107 478 103 176 68 508 218 621 4 258 1176 72 1302 74 2935 249 2895 1143 2214 1302 1131 115 528 101 3005 67 170 1033 1466 3801 243 82 73 125 1524 567 69 1939 21 403 114 995 708 607 376 551 101 5019 122 140 1634 86 3466 481 202 400 4687 137 188 4677 133 135 183 122 1093 100 65 157 3182 1563 61 417 105 58 1189 1007 185 917 171 421 482 67 56 884 274 1519 941 95 63 1137 3360 323 229 2105 817 2104 3254 61 1498 65 146 54 151 1707 82 90 203 3914 1327 84 3872 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 3609 2021 6117 3336 301 1732 11029 6320 51 213 1176 99 9205 3848 1963 41 47 10177 1515 169 40 164 72 503 101 274 115 3381 49 189 31 184 1329 384 1519 5335 518 164 123 963 256 1060 1294 1824 525 291 2932 77 1179 3811 1403 5264 158 839 255 1562 291 1808 118 2613 2589 315 2199 4529 297 1065 114 289 268 776 140 67 213 75 73 49 4307 1311 892 1297 1206 259 344 253 951 78 123 857 96 482 3240 277 202 118 768 1218 345 587 863 763 470 128 68 77 1609 106 1377 303 200 152 4073 70 131 3012 1783 1077 91 243 339 3812 1010 201 428 904 145 101 890 329 219 968 143 2555 116 92 150 1551 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 422 79 5038 4407 3811 313 2987 1563 73 70 90 1352 193 70 158 1620 207 65 138 380 632 149 4157 1188 63 397 2155 1437 1060 2087
Low between peaks 83 99 16 38 57 42 2 28 49 45 113 51 51 163 103 28 53 51 54 98 87 179 80 406 33 47 31 21 75 124 39 190 42 75 22 28 83 100 2 100 40 34 55 31 43 97 43 97 122 31 99 22 56 21 143 25 46 94 98 164 119 31 31 54 36 157 19 107 5 29 25 29 227 190 143 19 39 163 49 43 40 41 97 35 63 142 85 56 26 150 58 49 49 57 51 36 30 35 136 49 25 19 38 23 45 86 80 57 67 199 36 29 19 22 75 49 199 21 30 49 112 22 57 45 39 89 113 27 85 32 32 18 70 81 41 37 59 115 39 39 97 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 100 83 95 49 74 51 269 77 20 66 41 43 183 66 88 17 14 129 31 77 11 75 30 58 36 58 32 136 24 22 2 75 42 120 35 103 32 54 61 41 68 52 157 44 56 115 99 22 32 136 86 108 50 15 87 96 29 9 19 148 106 22 86 84 49 38 51 68 125 15 61 17 69 20 21 17 66 54 47 55 59 20 21 104 41 28 40 35 33 189 149 91 64 40 28 46 58 48 45 35 149 59 28 35 30 42 33 55 94 56 161 34 49 48 60 33 38 118 78 78 79 62 96 52 64 24 56 103 85 22 34 70 35 37 63 74 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 40 36 79 68 111 94 69 88 36 31 40 59 87 17 37 35 89 24 58 112 316 69 58 59 31 28 86 36 37 95

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-04-26 to 2022-05-02

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-04-25 70435 78256 19366 31334 40549 35841 54641 54560 24137 81055 48573 42412 42798 67039 26050 68947 125066 89244 24854 65779 57700 39402 60168 63898 128043 81092 343969 35393 56015 49151 21209 26271 94276 20863 133512 42475 171965 49050 38618 101327 26401 40708 95162 166935 39598 108024 33464 32339 37466 32733 65850 51207 66807 43209 71517 34499 46948 102528 36288 47750 30579 47102 97390 12801 61225 61324 36759 52390 128938 119681 33832 35097 31644 41102 179533 19895 64693 7659 26293 23095 26710 157285 23748 181479 110995 16637 40454 123388 51048 37756 39982 27918 24522 85967 19856 61938 107649 105516 35136 108430 43968 52956 118287 48500 26863 42132 43073 36905 49818 37654 36427 28925 38272 105491 41072 68094 32617 45226 14437 48957 96184 43806 28018 37362 41994 60953 35880 30895 42352 126387 38944 33930 23773 25961 69502 40468 234764 42446 26981 36630 30706 89813 46721 26876 89688 49006 26578 62973 30600 82711 32218 52485 80990 32958 33661 29431 39093 89121 52384 37350 29570 67221 100294 36926 44360 94177 56136 28935 29195 44754 14757 40132 73839 44437 35085 43949 89758 59525 138015 59468 111234 46303 273625 119871 30189 95258 34865 33206 54519 175143 74848 56896 19920 20135 192343 37787 93594 16186 33225 19260 71942 23591 28381 50456 56120 47471 52615 33812 97544 27472 19970 27203 42468 49665 38978 106103 41517 106646 44070 67694 49434 28824 32351 52476 43059 35740 139354 53036 23602 68762 77434 21402 34136 79105 106287 44600 109184 45878 20023 78930 5188 52139 26174 30613 46175 74018 88588 71067 26245 51222 57253 99879 47361 28957 53202 72483 71088 21093 66083 15147 76553 28771 24351 25735 92831 38869 28709 41172 34988 11638 14003 95462 110024 30878 31886 37967 98163 29537 38806 187423 6540 96410 51634 72720 45468 38480 23386 51734 36318 97016 24150 27716 44713 28308 128949 40506 30101 45732 39103 48314 36528 54220 81493 60906 101730 35542 52035 66567 45638 30455 29782 31913 102756 71237 87768 40265 34799 98796 31041 72689 48727 68366 73011 80130 27088 29318 39037 62887 44816 41411 29229 44525 32319 62222 42823 43256 26875 18709 105671 84722 37390 29208 36771 43248 117215 93035 89576 116129 76721 48015 34859 41503 46175 26076 39352 49356 14674 35587 38439 28765 67848 34163 49830 67610 115771 150124 39755 51099 112212 36086 59054 88635 33176 34898 37770 38153 57970 36138 30898 64605
2022-04-26 70580 78440 19380 31370 40570 35910 54690 54610 24260 81120 48610 42450 42850 67100 26100 69040 125200 89290 24890 65870 57740 39440 60200 63950 128100 81220 344400 35430 56050 49180 21210 26330 94370 20870 133700 42500 172200 49080 38660 101500 26410 40720 95270 167100 39650 108300 33500 32420 37500 32760 65900 51220 66920 43280 71650 34550 46990 102600 36330 47760 30650 47150 97480 12810 61240 61370 36790 52430 129000 119800 33870 35140 31680 41220 179900 19930 64730 7752 26300 23120 26720 157500 23790 181800 111200 16650 40480 123500 51190 37790 40020 27940 24530 86040 19870 61980 107800 105600 35200 108500 44070 53050 118500 48660 26890 42210 43150 36950 49900 37700 36540 28950 38420 105800 41120 68210 32650 45290 14460 49070 96240 43880 28030 37410 42050 61250 35910 30930 42370 126700 38960 33960 23790 25980 69670 40540 235700 42470 27020 36660 30750 89980 46760 26890 89770 49060 26610 63040 30610 82870 32240 52560 81040 32990 33690 29450 39140 89220 52450 37390 29590 67410 100400 36960 44430 94230 56290 28960 29350 44790 14760 40200 73880 44500 35120 43980 89940 59620 138100 59510 111400 46440 274200 120000 30210 95380 34930 33240 54580 175300 74910 56940 19960 20200 192500 37910 93710 16200 33280 19260 72020 23640 28410 50480 56150 47500 52650 33880 97680 27490 19990 27300 42480 49820 39020 106300 41580 106700 44080 67750 49520 28870 32370 52550 43080 35840 140000 53070 23640 68850 77570 21420 34170 79160 106500 44650 109400 45910 20040 79030 5204 52190 26180 30640 46280 74080 88680 71140 26250 51270 57350 99900 47420 28990 53280 72790 71100 21110 66110 15200 76610 28800 24400 25750 93050 38940 28740 41220 35020 11650 14020 95520 110200 30910 31950 38000 98280 29550 38830 188000 6571 96560 51690 72780 45550 38620 23420 51790 36350 97080 24190 27770 44770 28360 129500 40570 30130 45760 39140 48350 36560 54350 81600 60990 101900 35590 52090 66620 45700 30490 29810 31960 102900 71300 87970 40300 34840 98920 31080 72830 48780 68410 73070 80180 27120 29330 39060 63020 44880 41460 29270 44550 32380 62290 42860 43350 26880 18730 105800 84790 37490 29260 36800 43290 117300 93110 89680 116300 76930 48060 34890 41530 46200 26130 39400 49430 14680 35740 38480 28800 68030 34200 49890 67640 115900 150200 39800 51220 112300 36120 59120 88710 33270 34950 37790 38180 58020 36180 30960 64650
2022-04-27 70890 78850 19410 31440 40620 36070 54750 54670 24370 81240 48690 42510 42960 67230 26190 69110 125300 89400 24950 65930 57790 39520 60300 64030 128300 81290 344800 35500 56080 49250 21220 26370 94560 20900 133900 42570 172400 49150 38730 101600 26430 40740 95360 167300 39740 108400 33550 32460 37560 32820 65970 51240 66980 43320 71730 34660 47080 102600 36400 47790 30700 47220 97620 12820 61290 61440 36830 52570 129200 119900 33960 35240 31740 41290 180800 20020 64800 7821 26330 23150 26740 157900 23880 182000 111300 16680 40520 123600 51280 37840 40060 27980 24550 86190 19900 62040 108000 105900 35330 108600 44340 53260 118600 48750 26950 42390 43340 37050 49950 37760 36790 28990 38530 105900 41230 68480 32690 45440 14510 49140 96290 43950 28060 37470 42150 61420 35970 31000 42410 127300 38970 33980 23840 26020 69790 40590 236300 42540 27080 36690 30830 90060 46880 26900 89920 49160 26650 63090 30640 82970 32300 52630 81120 33040 33770 29490 39240 89300 52600 37470 29630 67760 100600 37020 44550 94320 56390 29000 29450 44860 14780 40260 73930 44540 35190 44060 90070 59690 138300 59560 111500 46520 274500 120200 30250 95450 34990 33290 54670 175500 74970 57040 19990 20240 192600 37990 93790 16220 33390 19280 72090 23680 28440 50520 56180 47520 52710 34040 97780 27520 20000 27470 42490 49920 39090 106500 41620 106800 44110 67840 49610 28950 32430 52680 43120 35900 140500 53150 23710 68930 77670 21440 34230 79290 106600 44730 109500 45970 20050 79090 5224 52230 26210 30680 46530 74140 88930 71280 26270 51360 57410 100000 47520 29060 53350 73000 71140 21150 66200 15230 76660 28830 24430 25790 93140 38990 28780 41300 35090 11660 14050 95580 110300 30960 32050 38080 98480 29590 38880 188300 6653 96880 51730 72880 45740 38700 23470 51910 36420 97230 24260 27810 44860 28400 129900 40690 30170 45830 39190 48420 36620 54440 81770 61050 102000 35630 52260 66720 45830 30570 29890 32020 102900 71410 88090 40390 34950 99150 31120 72910 48900 68440 73220 80230 27200 29350 39140 63110 45030 41570 29350 44630 32420 62340 42930 43420 26890 18760 105800 84850 37560 29290 36810 43390 117500 93270 89740 116400 77060 48120 34960 41600 46270 26160 39430 49560 14720 35830 38500 28840 68390 34290 49950 67660 116100 150500 39840 51280 112600 36160 59240 88870 33330 34980 37800 38210 58130 36240 31000 64770
2022-04-28 71130 79140 19430 31490 40660 36190 54810 54720 24450 81340 48750 42560 43040 67330 26260 69170 125300 89490 25000 66010 57840 39580 60380 64090 128500 81360 345100 35550 56120 49300 21230 26420 94710 20920 134100 42620 172600 49210 38780 101700 26450 40760 95450 167400 39820 108600 33590 32510 37610 32860 66020 51260 67040 43360 71820 34740 47150 102700 36460 47820 30740 47290 97740 12830 61340 61500 36870 52660 129300 120000 34040 35310 31790 41350 181500 20090 64850 7871 26340 23180 26750 158200 23940 182100 111400 16700 40560 123700 51340 37890 40090 28010 24560 86310 19930 62090 108100 106100 35430 108700 44530 53410 118800 48860 27000 42520 43490 37120 49990 37810 36970 29020 38630 106100 41310 68680 32720 45550 14550 49200 96350 44000 28090 37530 42230 61600 36010 31050 42440 127800 38980 34020 23880 26050 69910 40640 236900 42600 27130 36730 30900 90150 46960 26900 90050 49250 26690 63140 30670 83070 32340 52690 81180 33080 33820 29520 39310 89370 52710 37530 29660 68040 100700 37070 44650 94390 56490 29030 29540 44910 14790 40320 73990 44570 35240 44120 90200 59760 138400 59600 111600 46600 274900 120400 30290 95540 35040 33330 54750 175600 75030 57120 20020 20270 192700 38070 93880 16240 33470 19280 72140 23710 28480 50550 56210 47540 52760 34150 97870 27550 20010 27610 42500 50020 39150 106600 41660 106800 44120 67910 49690 29020 32470 52790 43150 35960 140900 53220 23760 69010 77780 21460 34280 79390 106800 44800 109600 46020 20070 79150 5242 52290 26230 30710 46710 74210 89110 71390 26290 51430 57460 100100 47600 29110 53410 73190 71170 21180 66250 15270 76710 28870 24460 25820 93210 39040 28820 41370 35140 11670 14080 95640 110400 31010 32140 38140 98650 29630 38910 188700 6710 97130 51770 72970 45880 38790 23510 52010 36470 97340 24310 27830 44940 28450 130200 40780 30200 45880 39230 48480 36670 54530 81920 61130 102100 35650 52380 66790 45920 30630 29940 32070 103000 71510 88210 40460 35030 99340 31160 72980 48990 68460 73340 80280 27260 29370 39200 63180 45140 41650 29420 44690 32460 62400 42980 43480 26890 18790 105900 84910 37640 29330 36830 43470 117700 93390 89790 116600 77170 48180 35010 41650 46330 26180 39460 49670 14740 35920 38530 28870 68670 34350 50000 67700 116200 150600 39890 51350 112800 36210 59340 88990 33380 35010 37820 38250 58220 36290 31050 64860
2022-04-29 71320 79380 19450 31540 40700 36290 54860 54780 24500 81430 48810 42610 43110 67410 26320 69230 125400 89560 25040 66060 57890 39640 60450 64140 128600 81420 345300 35600 56150 49340 21230 26450 94820 20940 134300 42670 172700 49260 38830 101700 26470 40770 95530 167600 39890 108700 33630 32540 37660 32900 66070 51280 67080 43390 71900 34810 47220 102700 36510 47830 30780 47340 97850 12840 61380 61560 36900 52740 129500 120100 34090 35380 31840 41400 182000 20140 64910 7905 26350 23210 26770 158400 24000 182300 111500 16720 40600 123800 51410 37930 40120 28040 24570 86410 19950 62130 108300 106300 35510 108800 44680 53530 118800 48940 27050 42630 43600 37180 50020 37860 37120 29050 38690 106200 41380 68850 32750 45640 14580 49240 96420 44050 28120 37580 42300 61730 36060 31100 42460 128200 38980 34040 23920 26070 70000 40680 237400 42650 27170 36760 30950 90230 47040 26910 90160 49320 26730 63190 30690 83130 32370 52750 81230 33120 33870 29550 39380 89430 52810 37590 29690 68270 100800 37110 44740 94450 56570 29060 29600 44960 14790 40360 74040 44600 35280 44180 90310 59820 138600 59640 111700 46650 275100 120500 30320 95590 35080 33370 54810 175700 75090 57180 20040 20300 192800 38130 93990 16260 33540 19290 72210 23740 28520 50570 56230 47570 52800 34250 97930 27570 20020 27720 42510 50110 39210 106700 41690 106900 44140 67980 49750 29080 32510 52880 43170 36030 141200 53270 23810 69030 77860 21480 34330 79480 106900 44870 109700 46060 20080 79200 5259 52330 26250 30740 46860 74280 89270 71490 26300 51490 57500 100100 47670 29160 53470 73300 71190 21200 66300 15300 76730 28900 24480 25840 93270 39080 28860 41430 35190 11690 14100 95700 110500 31050 32220 38200 98800 29650 38940 188900 6756 97330 51800 73050 46000 38860 23550 52090 36520 97440 24360 27850 45010 28480 130500 40870 30240 45920 39270 48530 36720 54590 82040 61180 102200 35670 52470 66860 46010 30690 29990 32120 103100 71590 88300 40520 35090 99490 31200 73030 49070 68470 73440 80330 27310 29400 39250 63240 45230 41720 29480 44740 32490 62450 43030 43540 26900 18820 106000 84980 37690 29360 36840 43530 117800 93490 89810 116700 77250 48240 35050 41700 46380 26210 39480 49770 14760 35960 38550 28910 68890 34410 50070 67720 116300 150800 39940 51410 113000 36250 59430 89090 33420 35030 37820 38280 58280 36330 31090 64930
2022-04-30 71510 79610 19470 31590 40740 36390 54910 54830 24560 81530 48860 42650 43180 67490 26380 69290 125500 89630 25080 66110 57950 39690 60510 64200 128700 81480 345500 35650 56180 49380 21240 26480 94940 20960 134500 42710 172800 49310 38870 101800 26490 40780 95630 167700 39950 108900 33670 32570 37700 32930 66120 51290 67110 43430 71980 34870 47280 102700 36560 47850 30810 47390 97970 12840 61450 61620 36940 52820 129700 120200 34150 35440 31890 41440 182500 20190 64970 7936 26360 23240 26780 158700 24050 182300 111600 16740 40630 123800 51470 37970 40160 28070 24580 86510 19970 62170 108400 106500 35580 109000 44830 53650 118900 49020 27090 42740 43710 37250 50040 37910 37260 29080 38760 106400 41440 69010 32780 45730 14610 49300 96510 44110 28140 37630 42370 61850 36100 31140 42480 128600 38990 34060 23950 26100 70080 40710 237700 42690 27210 36790 31000 90290 47110 26910 90260 49390 26760 63250 30710 83190 32410 52820 81290 33170 33910 29570 39440 89500 52910 37640 29720 68500 100900 37150 44820 94500 56650 29080 29640 45010 14800 40400 74110 44610 35330 44230 90460 59900 138700 59690 111700 46710 275400 120600 30350 95690 35130 33410 54880 175800 75150 57250 20070 20340 192900 38180 94070 16280 33600 19300 72240 23770 28550 50600 56260 47590 52850 34340 97970 27590 20020 27820 42520 50180 39260 106800 41710 106900 44150 68030 49820 29130 32550 52960 43200 36070 141600 53320 23860 69120 77940 21500 34370 79570 107000 44930 109700 46100 20100 79250 5277 52390 26260 30760 47010 74360 89410 71580 26310 51540 57540 100100 47730 29200 53530 73420 71210 21230 66340 15310 76780 28930 24490 25870 93310 39110 28900 41490 35230 11710 14120 95760 110500 31090 32290 38250 98930 29680 38980 189100 6798 97530 51850 73130 46110 38930 23590 52180 36560 97540 24410 27860 45070 28530 130600 40950 30270 45970 39310 48590 36760 54640 82170 61240 102300 35700 52560 66930 46090 30730 30040 32170 103200 71670 88440 40580 35160 99650 31240 73050 49140 68490 73530 80390 27350 29440 39300 63300 45320 41790 29530 44790 32530 62500 43080 43590 26900 18840 106000 85090 37740 29390 36850 43580 118000 93580 89850 116800 77310 48290 35090 41750 46430 26230 39510 49860 14780 36010 38590 28940 69100 34470 50120 67740 116500 151000 39990 51470 113100 36290 59520 89190 33470 35060 37830 38320 58350 36380 31120 65000
2022-05-01 71670 79810 19490 31630 40770 36470 54960 54870 24600 81620 48920 42690 43240 67560 26430 69340 125600 89700 25120 66160 58000 39740 60560 64240 128800 81520 345800 35690 56210 49420 21240 26500 95030 20980 134700 42750 172900 49350 38910 101900 26500 40790 95670 167800 40020 109000 33700 32600 37730 32960 66160 51300 67150 43450 72030 34930 47340 102700 36600 47860 30840 47430 98070 12850 61500 61670 36980 52880 129800 120300 34200 35500 31930 41470 182900 20230 65020 7961 26370 23260 26800 159000 24100 182400 111700 16760 40670 123900 51500 38010 40200 28090 24580 86610 20000 62210 108600 106600 35650 109100 44950 53740 119000 49090 27130 42830 43810 37300 50070 37950 37380 29110 38810 106500 41500 69150 32810 45810 14640 49340 96560 44140 28170 37680 42430 61960 36140 31170 42500 128900 39000 34080 23980 26130 70150 40740 238000 42730 27250 36820 31050 90340 47170 26910 90360 49450 26790 63260 30730 83240 32440 52870 81330 33210 33950 29600 39500 89540 52990 37680 29750 68700 101000 37180 44900 94550 56710 29110 29680 45060 14800 40430 74150 44610 35370 44280 90570 59940 138800 59730 111800 46760 275600 120700 30380 95740 35160 33440 54940 175900 75190 57310 20090 20360 193000 38220 94130 16300 33660 19300 72270 23790 28590 50620 56290 47610 52890 34420 98020 27610 20020 27920 42530 50250 39310 106900 41730 107000 44160 68090 49850 29190 32580 53040 43220 36110 141900 53370 23910 69150 78020 21520 34410 79650 107100 44980 109800 46130 20110 79280 5294 52430 26270 30790 47130 74410 89540 71670 26320 51590 57570 100100 47800 29240 53570 73520 71230 21250 66370 15340 76820 28960 24510 25900 93350 39140 28930 41550 35280 11720 14150 95800 110600 31130 32360 38290 99060 29710 39010 189300 6834 97710 51890 73200 46210 38990 23620 52260 36600 97630 24450 27870 45140 28560 130800 41020 30310 46010 39350 48640 36800 54700 82280 61290 102400 35720 52640 66990 46160 30780 30080 32220 103300 71750 88520 40630 35210 99780 31280 73080 49200 68490 73610 80440 27390 29470 39340 63350 45400 41850 29580 44830 32550 62550 43130 43640 26900 18870 106100 85140 37780 29410 36860 43630 118100 93660 89870 116900 77370 48350 35120 41790 46470 26240 39530 49940 14800 36040 38600 28980 69280 34520 50160 67750 116600 151100 40040 51520 113300 36330 59600 89270 33500 35070 37830 38350 58400 36420 31150 65060
2022-05-02 71830 80000 19510 31670 40810 36550 55000 54920 24650 81710 48970 42720 43300 67620 26480 69370 125700 89760 25160 66220 58060 39790 60620 64290 128900 81560 346000 35730 56240 49450 21250 26530 95130 21000 134800 42800 173000 49390 38950 101900 26530 40800 95790 167900 40080 109100 33740 32630 37770 32990 66200 51310 67200 43520 72080 34980 47390 102700 36650 47870 30860 47480 98180 12850 61550 61730 37020 52940 129900 120300 34250 35550 31970 41500 183300 20270 65070 7992 26380 23290 26820 159200 24140 182700 111800 16770 40710 123900 51530 38050 40240 28120 24590 86700 20020 62240 108700 106800 35710 109200 45070 53840 119100 49180 27170 42920 43890 37360 50140 38000 37500 29140 38880 106700 41560 69290 32840 45880 14660 49370 96630 44170 28190 37720 42500 62070 36180 31200 42520 129200 39000 34130 24000 26150 70240 40780 238400 42770 27290 36850 31100 90400 47230 26910 90450 49510 26830 63300 30750 83270 32470 52950 81380 33250 33980 29620 39550 89590 53070 37730 29770 68900 101100 37220 44980 94600 56790 29130 29730 45100 14810 40490 74230 44640 35410 44330 90640 60000 138900 59770 111800 46810 275800 120800 30410 95810 35210 33480 54990 176000 75230 57370 20110 20400 193100 38250 94210 16310 33720 19300 72310 23830 28630 50640 56310 47640 52930 34490 98150 27630 20020 28010 42540 50330 39360 107000 41780 107100 44170 68140 49940 29240 32610 53120 43240 36160 142000 53410 23950 69250 78100 21540 34450 79730 107200 45040 109900 46160 20120 79340 5311 52480 26280 30810 47250 74480 89660 71760 26330 51630 57620 100200 47860 29280 53630 73670 71240 21270 66400 15350 76900 28990 24530 25920 93420 39170 28960 41600 35320 11730 14170 95880 110700 31170 32430 38340 99180 29730 39030 189300 6867 97880 51940 73270 46310 39060 23660 52340 36650 97720 24490 27910 45200 28590 131100 41100 30340 46050 39390 48690 36840 54760 82390 61360 102400 35740 52710 67050 46230 30820 30120 32270 103400 71830 88600 40680 35260 99920 31320 73130 49260 68500 73690 80490 27420 29490 39380 63430 45470 41910 29630 44870 32590 62610 43180 43700 26910 18890 106200 85210 37820 29450 36860 43680 118200 93740 89920 117000 77430 48400 35160 41840 46520 26270 39580 50020 14820 36100 38640 29010 69460 34560 50220 67780 116700 151300 40090 51580 113400 36370 59680 89350 33540 35120 37840 38380 58450 36460 31190 65120

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-04-26 to 2022-05-02

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-04-25 70435 78256 19366 31334 40549 35841 54641 54560 24137 81055 48573 42412 42798 67039 26050 68947 125066 89244 24854 65779 57700 39402 60168 63898 128043 81092 343969 35393 56015 49151 21209 26271 94276 20863 133512 42475 171965 49050 38618 101327 26401 40708 95162 166935 39598 108024 33464 32339 37466 32733 65850 51207 66807 43209 71517 34499 46948 102528 36288 47750 30579 47102 97390 12801 61225 61324 36759 52390 128938 119681 33832 35097 31644 41102 179533 19895 64693 7659 26293 23095 26710 157285 23748 181479 110995 16637 40454 123388 51048 37756 39982 27918 24522 85967 19856 61938 107649 105516 35136 108430 43968 52956 118287 48500 26863 42132 43073 36905 49818 37654 36427 28925 38272 105491 41072 68094 32617 45226 14437 48957 96184 43806 28018 37362 41994 60953 35880 30895 42352 126387 38944 33930 23773 25961 69502 40468 234764 42446 26981 36630 30706 89813 46721 26876 89688 49006 26578 62973 30600 82711 32218 52485 80990 32958 33661 29431 39093 89121 52384 37350 29570 67221 100294 36926 44360 94177 56136 28935 29195 44754 14757 40132 73839 44437 35085 43949 89758 59525 138015 59468 111234 46303 273625 119871 30189 95258 34865 33206 54519 175143 74848 56896 19920 20135 192343 37787 93594 16186 33225 19260 71942 23591 28381 50456 56120 47471 52615 33812 97544 27472 19970 27203 42468 49665 38978 106103 41517 106646 44070 67694 49434 28824 32351 52476 43059 35740 139354 53036 23602 68762 77434 21402 34136 79105 106287 44600 109184 45878 20023 78930 5188 52139 26174 30613 46175 74018 88588 71067 26245 51222 57253 99879 47361 28957 53202 72483 71088 21093 66083 15147 76553 28771 24351 25735 92831 38869 28709 41172 34988 11638 14003 95462 110024 30878 31886 37967 98163 29537 38806 187423 6540 96410 51634 72720 45468 38480 23386 51734 36318 97016 24150 27716 44713 28308 128949 40506 30101 45732 39103 48314 36528 54220 81493 60906 101730 35542 52035 66567 45638 30455 29782 31913 102756 71237 87768 40265 34799 98796 31041 72689 48727 68366 73011 80130 27088 29318 39037 62887 44816 41411 29229 44525 32319 62222 42823 43256 26875 18709 105671 84722 37390 29208 36771 43248 117215 93035 89576 116129 76721 48015 34859 41503 46175 26076 39352 49356 14674 35587 38439 28765 67848 34163 49830 67610 115771 150124 39755 51099 112212 36086 59054 88635 33176 34898 37770 38153 57970 36138 30898 64605
2022-04-26 70570 78450 19390 31370 40590 35910 54680 54620 24200 81110 48630 42450 42840 67100 26080 68980 125200 89330 24880 65850 57760 39440 60210 63960 128100 81160 344200 35420 56050 49200 21210 26300 94350 20880 133700 42520 172100 49100 38670 101400 26420 40720 95240 167100 39650 108100 33500 32370 37510 32760 65900 51210 66880 43260 71590 34530 47000 102500 36320 47750 30610 47130 97490 12800 61240 61380 36790 52450 129100 119800 33870 35140 31680 41160 179900 19930 64760 7696 26300 23120 26720 157500 23780 181700 111100 16650 40500 123500 51100 37800 40010 27940 24530 86030 19880 61970 107700 105600 35180 108500 44080 53030 118400 48580 26900 42190 43150 36950 49870 37700 36490 28950 38340 105600 41120 68170 32640 45280 14460 49000 96250 43850 28040 37410 42050 61070 35940 30920 42370 126600 38950 33960 23800 25980 69590 40510 235200 42480 27010 36650 30750 89890 46760 26880 89750 49040 26610 63010 30620 82770 32250 52560 81040 32990 33690 29470 39140 89180 52450 37380 29590 67370 100400 36960 44420 94240 56210 28960 29270 44810 14760 40160 73880 44480 35120 44000 89860 59570 138100 59520 111300 46370 273900 119900 30230 95330 34910 33250 54570 175300 74900 56950 19940 20160 192500 37830 93670 16200 33260 19260 71990 23620 28410 50500 56150 47510 52650 33880 97630 27490 19970 27260 42470 49740 39010 106200 41560 106700 44080 67740 49510 28860 32410 52530 43080 35800 139600 53100 23640 68850 77520 21430 34170 79170 106400 44650 109300 45920 20030 78990 5205 52180 26180 30640 46280 74080 88690 71140 26250 51270 57300 99900 47400 28980 53250 72640 71100 21110 66140 15160 76610 28800 24380 25770 92970 38920 28740 41220 35030 11650 14020 95520 110100 30920 31960 38020 98250 29570 38840 187800 6570 96530 51680 72790 45530 38540 23410 51800 36350 97120 24180 27740 44760 28340 129200 40560 30130 45790 39130 48370 36560 54280 81570 60960 101800 35570 52090 66620 45690 30490 29810 31970 102800 71290 87860 40310 34830 98880 31080 72750 48770 68380 73090 80190 27120 29340 39090 62950 44880 41460 29260 44570 32350 62270 42870 43310 26880 18730 105700 84780 37430 29240 36780 43290 117300 93110 89640 116200 76800 48060 34900 41550 46230 26100 39390 49400 14690 35650 38480 28810 67960 34200 49900 67640 115900 150300 39790 51160 112300 36120 59120 88700 33220 34930 37780 38190 58030 36180 30930 64670
2022-04-27 70740 78680 19410 31400 40630 36000 54720 54680 24280 81170 48690 42500 42900 67180 26120 69020 125300 89430 24910 65910 57820 39490 60290 64030 128200 81230 344500 35460 56080 49250 21220 26340 94440 20900 133800 42570 172200 49160 38730 101500 26440 40720 95330 167200 39720 108200 33530 32400 37560 32790 65960 51220 66940 43320 71650 34570 47050 102600 36370 47760 30650 47180 97610 12810 61290 61440 36830 52540 129200 119900 33920 35200 31720 41210 180400 19970 64840 7745 26310 23140 26750 157700 23820 181900 111200 16670 40530 123600 51160 37840 40040 27970 24530 86130 19900 62000 107900 105800 35230 108600 44220 53140 118500 48650 26930 42270 43250 37000 49920 37770 36590 28990 38410 105800 41180 68290 32680 45330 14490 49040 96310 43900 28080 37450 42100 61170 36000 30960 42390 127000 38950 34000 23840 26010 69670 40560 235600 42520 27050 36690 30800 89960 46830 26890 89840 49090 26650 63060 30650 82840 32280 52610 81120 33030 33730 29510 39210 89260 52530 37430 29620 67540 100500 37000 44480 94330 56280 28980 29330 44870 14770 40210 73940 44520 35160 44060 89970 59620 138200 59560 111400 46420 274100 120000 30270 95400 34960 33280 54620 175400 74960 57010 19960 20200 192600 37870 93740 16220 33310 19270 72040 23650 28440 50560 56180 47550 52710 33960 97740 27520 19980 27340 42480 49810 39060 106300 41610 106800 44090 67780 49600 28900 32460 52600 43120 35850 139800 53180 23690 68950 77600 21450 34210 79250 106500 44710 109400 45970 20050 79060 5222 52220 26190 30660 46420 74140 88800 71210 26260 51330 57360 100000 47450 29020 53300 72770 71110 21130 66220 15180 76670 28830 24410 25810 93060 38970 28770 41270 35070 11660 14040 95600 110200 30960 32020 38080 98370 29620 38880 188100 6615 96670 51720 72860 45610 38610 23440 51880 36390 97240 24210 27770 44830 28390 129500 40630 30160 45860 39170 48450 36590 54350 81650 61030 101900 35600 52170 66680 45760 30520 29850 32030 102900 71350 87950 40380 34880 99000 31120 72820 48830 68390 73190 80240 27160 29360 39160 63010 44950 41520 29290 44640 32390 62320 42910 43350 26890 18760 105800 84840 37470 29270 36790 43360 117400 93190 89710 116300 76890 48130 34940 41610 46300 26130 39420 49460 14720 35720 38520 28850 68110 34260 49950 67670 116000 150500 39840 51210 112400 36170 59200 88790 33260 34960 37780 38240 58110 36220 30970 64760
2022-04-28 70910 78900 19430 31440 40680 36090 54760 54750 24340 81240 48770 42540 42960 67260 26160 69070 125400 89510 24940 65990 57890 39530 60370 64110 128300 81300 344700 35500 56130 49310 21220 26380 94530 20920 134000 42630 172400 49220 38790 101600 26470 40730 95430 167400 39780 108400 33570 32440 37600 32820 66020 51230 67000 43380 71730 34620 47120 102600 36420 47770 30690 47220 97740 12810 61360 61510 36870 52620 129400 120100 33970 35260 31760 41260 180800 20020 64930 7787 26320 23160 26770 157900 23850 182100 111300 16690 40570 123700 51220 37890 40080 28010 24540 86220 19930 62030 108000 106000 35290 108700 44360 53250 118600 48750 26970 42340 43350 37070 49980 37830 36690 29030 38490 105900 41240 68420 32720 45400 14510 49090 96390 43940 28110 37480 42160 61300 36050 31000 42400 127300 38960 34040 23880 26040 69770 40600 236100 42560 27090 36720 30840 90040 46890 26890 89940 49140 26690 63120 30690 82910 32320 52680 81200 33070 33770 29550 39270 89350 52610 37470 29660 67750 100600 37040 44550 94420 56360 29000 29400 44930 14770 40260 74000 44560 35200 44130 90080 59680 138400 59610 111500 46480 274400 120100 30310 95510 35010 33320 54670 175600 75020 57080 19990 20230 192700 37920 93820 16240 33350 19270 72120 23690 28480 50620 56200 47580 52760 34060 97850 27550 19980 27410 42490 49900 39100 106400 41660 106800 44090 67830 49700 28940 32500 52670 43160 35900 140000 53250 23730 69050 77700 21480 34250 79330 106700 44770 109500 46020 20070 79120 5240 52270 26200 30690 46550 74220 88920 71300 26260 51380 57420 100100 47500 29050 53360 72920 71120 21160 66300 15200 76730 28870 24430 25860 93160 39020 28800 41320 35120 11670 14060 95680 110300 31000 32100 38130 98490 29650 38920 188300 6655 96820 51760 72930 45690 38690 23460 51970 36430 97360 24240 27800 44890 28430 129800 40700 30200 45930 39210 48520 36630 54420 81750 61110 102000 35630 52250 66740 45820 30560 29890 32100 103000 71410 88040 40440 34930 99100 31160 72890 48890 68400 73280 80300 27190 29390 39220 63070 45030 41580 29330 44700 32420 62370 42960 43400 26890 18780 105900 84920 37530 29300 36790 43430 117600 93290 89780 116400 76970 48200 34990 41670 46380 26150 39460 49530 14740 35800 38560 28890 68260 34320 50020 67730 116100 150800 39890 51270 112600 36210 59280 88870 33300 35000 37790 38290 58180 36260 31010 64850
2022-04-29 71050 79090 19460 31480 40720 36160 54800 54800 24380 81300 48830 42580 43020 67330 26200 69120 125500 89590 24970 66040 57960 39570 60440 64180 128400 81380 344900 35530 56160 49350 21230 26410 94600 20930 134200 42680 172500 49280 38830 101600 26490 40730 95510 167500 39840 108500 33600 32470 37640 32850 66070 51240 67050 43430 71790 34650 47170 102600 36460 47780 30720 47250 97860 12810 61400 61570 36910 52690 129600 120200 34020 35300 31790 41310 181200 20060 65010 7824 26320 23190 26790 158200 23890 182300 111400 16700 40610 123800 51280 37930 40110 28040 24550 86310 19950 62060 108100 106200 35340 108800 44470 53330 118700 48810 27010 42410 43430 37120 50020 37880 36770 29060 38550 106000 41280 68530 32750 45450 14540 49130 96460 43980 28150 37520 42210 61400 36110 31030 42420 127600 38960 34080 23910 26060 69840 40640 236400 42600 27130 36750 30890 90120 46950 26890 90030 49180 26730 63170 30720 82970 32350 52740 81280 33110 33800 29590 39330 89420 52680 37510 29690 67900 100700 37080 44610 94500 56430 29020 29440 45000 14770 40300 74060 44600 35240 44180 90180 59730 138500 59650 111600 46520 274700 120200 30350 95570 35060 33360 54720 175700 75080 57130 20010 20260 192900 37960 93910 16250 33400 19270 72190 23720 28520 50680 56230 47620 52810 34120 97940 27580 19980 27480 42490 49970 39140 106500 41710 106900 44100 67870 49770 28980 32540 52720 43190 35950 140200 53320 23770 69130 77780 21500 34290 79400 106800 44830 109500 46070 20090 79170 5257 52310 26210 30700 46660 74290 89030 71380 26260 51430 57480 100100 47550 29080 53410 73030 71130 21170 66370 15220 76780 28900 24450 25890 93250 39060 28830 41370 35160 11680 14070 95750 110400 31030 32160 38180 98590 29690 38960 188500 6690 96950 51800 73010 45760 38750 23490 52050 36470 97470 24270 27830 44950 28460 130000 40760 30240 45980 39250 48590 36670 54470 81830 61160 102000 35660 52310 66800 45880 30590 29920 32160 103100 71480 88120 40490 34980 99200 31190 72950 48940 68410 73380 80360 27220 29420 39280 63130 45090 41640 29360 44750 32450 62420 43000 43450 26900 18800 106000 84990 37570 29330 36800 43490 117700 93380 89830 116500 77040 48260 35030 41720 46440 26170 39490 49590 14760 35840 38600 28920 68380 34360 50090 67770 116200 151000 39940 51320 112700 36250 59340 88950 33340 35030 37800 38340 58250 36300 31050 64920
2022-04-30 71180 79260 19480 31520 40760 36220 54840 54850 24430 81370 48890 42610 43060 67400 26230 69160 125600 89670 25000 66090 58020 39610 60510 64230 128500 81440 345200 35570 56190 49390 21230 26440 94670 20950 134300 42720 172600 49350 38880 101700 26520 40740 95610 167600 39900 108600 33630 32490 37680 32880 66130 51240 67100 43490 71860 34690 47210 102600 36510 47790 30750 47290 97960 12810 61470 61630 36950 52760 129700 120300 34060 35350 31830 41360 181600 20090 65080 7865 26330 23210 26810 158300 23920 182500 111500 16720 40650 123900 51330 37970 40140 28060 24550 86380 19970 62090 108200 106300 35390 108900 44580 53400 118800 48870 27040 42460 43490 37160 50050 37930 36840 29090 38610 106200 41340 68620 32780 45500 14560 49170 96530 44030 28170 37550 42250 61490 36160 31070 42430 127900 38960 34110 23940 26090 69910 40680 236800 42640 27170 36780 30930 90180 46990 26900 90100 49220 26760 63220 30750 83020 32380 52790 81330 33150 33830 29620 39380 89490 52760 37550 29720 68040 100700 37130 44670 94570 56490 29040 29470 45050 14780 40340 74140 44630 35280 44230 90290 59790 138600 59690 111600 46560 274900 120300 30390 95670 35090 33390 54770 175800 75120 57190 20030 20300 193000 37990 93980 16270 33440 19280 72230 23750 28550 50730 56260 47650 52860 34180 98020 27600 19990 27540 42490 50030 39180 106600 41740 107000 44110 67910 49830 29020 32580 52780 43220 35990 140500 53400 23810 69220 77850 21510 34330 79470 106900 44880 109600 46110 20100 79210 5274 52370 26220 30720 46760 74350 89120 71440 26270 51470 57530 100200 47600 29110 53460 73150 71140 21190 66430 15240 76820 28930 24460 25920 93320 39100 28860 41410 35190 11690 14080 95810 110400 31070 32210 38230 98680 29720 39000 188700 6720 97070 51840 73070 45810 38810 23510 52120 36500 97570 24290 27850 45000 28500 130200 40810 30270 46030 39290 48680 36700 54520 81910 61210 102100 35690 52380 66850 45940 30620 29950 32210 103200 71540 88230 40540 35020 99300 31220 73000 48980 68420 73470 80410 27240 29460 39330 63190 45150 41700 29400 44810 32480 62460 43040 43490 26900 18820 106000 85070 37610 29360 36800 43540 117800 93460 89890 116600 77090 48320 35060 41770 46490 26200 39530 49640 14780 35890 38630 28950 68530 34410 50140 67790 116300 151100 39980 51380 112800 36290 59400 89020 33380 35070 37810 38380 58320 36330 31080 65010
2022-05-01 71310 79450 19500 31560 40800 36310 54880 54900 24480 81430 48950 42640 43120 67470 26260 69200 125700 89740 25020 66160 58080 39650 60580 64290 128500 81490 345400 35600 56220 49430 21240 26470 94740 20960 134500 42760 172700 49410 38920 101800 26540 40740 95690 167700 39960 108700 33660 32520 37710 32900 66170 51250 67150 43550 71930 34730 47260 102600 36550 47790 30780 47330 98070 12820 61530 61690 36990 52830 129900 120400 34110 35400 31860 41410 182000 20120 65150 7910 26340 23240 26830 158500 23960 182700 111600 16740 40690 124000 51380 38010 40180 28100 24550 86460 19990 62120 108300 106500 35440 109000 44690 53500 118900 48950 27080 42530 43570 37200 50110 37980 36930 29120 38670 106300 41390 68740 32810 45550 14590 49210 96610 44060 28200 37590 42290 61600 36210 31100 42450 128200 38970 34150 23970 26120 69980 40710 237200 42670 27210 36810 30970 90260 47050 26900 90170 49260 26790 63280 30780 83080 32410 52840 81400 33200 33860 29650 39430 89570 52830 37580 29760 68210 100800 37170 44730 94640 56560 29050 29530 45100 14780 40380 74220 44650 35320 44280 90390 59840 138700 59730 111700 46610 275200 120400 30420 95760 35140 33430 54820 175900 75170 57240 20050 20330 193100 38020 94040 16280 33480 19280 72310 23780 28590 50790 56290 47680 52900 34250 98110 27630 19990 27610 42500 50100 39220 106700 41780 107000 44110 67950 49920 29070 32620 52840 43250 36030 140700 53480 23850 69300 77920 21530 34370 79540 107100 44930 109700 46150 20120 79260 5294 52410 26220 30740 46870 74420 89200 71510 26270 51520 57580 100300 47650 29140 53500 73290 71150 21210 66500 15260 76880 28960 24480 25960 93410 39140 28890 41450 35230 11710 14100 95880 110500 31110 32280 38280 98780 29760 39040 188900 6752 97210 51880 73150 45880 38890 23530 52200 36540 97670 24320 27880 45050 28530 130500 40870 30310 46080 39330 48750 36740 54570 81980 61270 102200 35720 52440 66910 46000 30650 29990 32270 103300 71610 88310 40600 35070 99400 31260 73050 49030 68430 73560 80470 27280 29490 39380 63250 45210 41750 29430 44860 32500 62510 43080 43540 26910 18850 106100 85130 37640 29390 36810 43590 117900 93540 89960 116700 77160 48380 35090 41820 46550 26220 39570 49700 14800 35950 38670 28990 68680 34450 50190 67820 116300 151300 40030 51440 112900 36330 59470 89100 33420 35100 37810 38420 58390 36360 31110 65080
2022-05-02 71500 79650 19520 31590 40860 36410 54920 54960 24550 81500 49020 42690 43170 67550 26300 69250 125900 89820 25040 66220 58150 39700 60670 64360 128600 81580 345700 35640 56270 49500 21240 26500 94820 20980 134700 42830 172900 49490 38970 101900 26570 40750 95810 167900 40020 108800 33700 32560 37760 32930 66240 51250 67200 43630 72000 34770 47320 102600 36590 47800 30820 47360 98190 12820 61600 61760 37040 52900 130100 120500 34160 35450 31900 41470 182400 20170 65250 7956 26340 23260 26850 158700 24000 183000 111700 16760 40730 124100 51440 38060 40210 28130 24560 86560 20020 62150 108400 106600 35490 109200 44830 53620 119000 49040 27120 42590 43670 37260 50190 38040 37030 29160 38750 106500 41440 68870 32850 45620 14610 49270 96680 44100 28230 37640 42350 61720 36260 31130 42470 128700 38970 34200 24010 26140 70060 40760 237600 42710 27250 36840 31020 90350 47120 26900 90260 49320 26830 63340 30810 83150 32450 52920 81480 33240 33890 29690 39490 89660 52910 37620 29800 68400 100900 37210 44800 94730 56640 29080 29590 45160 14780 40450 74310 44690 35360 44340 90490 59910 138800 59780 111800 46670 275500 120500 30470 95850 35190 33470 54860 176100 75230 57310 20070 20370 193200 38080 94130 16300 33530 19280 72380 23820 28630 50850 56310 47720 52960 34330 98250 27650 19990 27680 42500 50170 39260 106900 41840 107100 44120 67990 50020 29110 32660 52920 43290 36080 140900 53550 23890 69400 78010 21560 34410 79620 107200 45000 109700 46200 20140 79320 5311 52460 26230 30770 47030 74500 89310 71600 26270 51570 57650 100300 47700 29170 53560 73450 71160 21230 66580 15270 76950 29000 24500 26000 93520 39190 28920 41500 35270 11720 14120 95970 110600 31150 32350 38340 98910 29800 39080 189100 6795 97340 51930 73230 45960 38970 23560 52290 36590 97790 24350 27920 45110 28570 130800 40940 30350 46150 39380 48830 36780 54650 82070 61340 102300 35750 52510 66980 46060 30690 30030 32340 103400 71680 88410 40670 35120 99520 31300 73140 49080 68450 73650 80540 27320 29520 39440 63320 45280 41820 29470 44920 32540 62570 43130 43600 26910 18870 106200 85210 37690 29430 36820 43650 118000 93630 90050 116900 77240 48440 35130 41870 46620 26250 39620 49770 14820 36040 38720 29030 68840 34510 50270 67860 116500 151500 40070 51500 113000 36380 59550 89200 33460 35160 37820 38470 58460 36400 31150 65190

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.