COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-05-03 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-05-03

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-05-03

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252021-12-282022-03-232022-03-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222021-12-282022-03-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242021-12-292022-03-222021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-03-222022-02-062022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-02-062022-02-062022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062022-03-192022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-142022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-03-212022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-282022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-162022-03-262022-02-062022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-162022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-04-192022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-162022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-03-232022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-24
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 1126 1275 1525 804 437 780 1774 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 134 398 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 266 1199 253 17521 1550 3317 165 319 97 205 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 79 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 153 2002 167 611 195 234 273 132 1418 251 1362 119 1222 456 433 192 2422 2091 214 270 562 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7753 684 302 121 62 774 71 3960 513 7900 4326 70 1426 372 1559 1550 131 862 267 3466 481 896 4767 2335 1159 307 2036 1878 312 1747 663 1048 1254 885 1468 1093 1560 891 1505 441 158 1625 976 1274 71 1353 3625 1652 982 152 1007 2291 930 917 560 6120 103 1022 779 105 2871 147 6944 1464 848 1510 117 3360 1261 77 3318 173 120 194 1115 3254 1188 224 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 287 1188 1044 2486 274 131 1158 3872 1474 1689 886 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 274 2021 423 185 4514 1732 837 234 803 3519 136 1238 694 9205 172 1963 580 540 462 146 3625 516 696 246 2554 147 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1347 3381 825 68 1495 532 1263 162 4887 167 230 105 1141 1531 659 963 1941 1111 180 3559 220 131 1868 297 835 131 2965 442 1403 274 1790 56 4269 264 210 83 57 2223 3085 535 331 74 2466 197 234 2322 108 1632 1804 1026 60 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 290 142 892 158 145 51 75 4748 5886 136 1365 1073 4438 126 1175 863 632 530 2347 2862 1130 1408 87 1599 147 2982 170 863 1470 162 4031 1059 875 1101 128 1007 129 2510 3022 2379 330 1253 1583 227 196 134 992 1278 3842 3631 293 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 116 2290 3757 94 844 990 249 1394 1055 812 237 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 102 1143 361 250 3811 4283 279 217 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 808 1620 922 2543 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 241 139 796 98 1077 2155 132 129 2087
Days since peak 86 86 99 99 99 86 99 127 86 99 99 99 99 99 99 41 42 99 99 99 99 99 99 42 99 42 99 99 99 39 126 41 35 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 42 99 99 99 99 99 99 42 99 42 126 40 42 42 41 99 42 99 43 99 125 42 125 99 99 42 42 42 99 99 99 99 99 86 86 42 86 41 99 41 99 99 99 99 37 99 42 99 99 42 99 125 99 99 125 99 99 99 41 86 86 42 86 99 99 86 99 99 99 86 99 86 42 41 99 99 99 42 99 99 99 99 41 99 86 99 99 125 86 45 99 99 42 99 41 70 99 99 99 40 99 99 50 99 42 41 42 99 99 99 42 99 99 99 99 99 99 42 99 99 86 42 39 99 99 99 99 86 99 126 99 99 99 99 99 40 99 42 42 99 99 42 42 99 99 39 99 99 99 40 99 99 99 42 41 99 99 99 127 99 41 99 99 99 99 99 86 99 99 43 86 125 99 42 99 41 42 43 99 86 99 99 99 99 42 70 42 42 99 42 99 42 99 42 99 42 99 36 99 86 42 48 38 86 99 42 42 48 99 42 41 99 41 99 70 127 41 99 99 99 99 99 99 42 42 99 42 42 40 42 99 99 42 86 99 99 42 99 14 86 42 99 99 99 86 42 99 37 99 42 99 99 42 86 99 99 99 42 99 38 99 99 99 42 99 99 39 40 41 99 86 99 99 38 99 99 99 99 99 99 48 99 99 41 99 99 41 99 99 99 42 99 99 99 99 125 99 99 99 99 99 43 99 41 38 99 99 42 42 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 70 99 99 86 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 41 42 99 42 99 99 42 42 99
Last total 71006 78921 19446 31486 40711 36126 54883 54784 24393 81328 48754 42561 42944 67301 26177 69111 125545 89572 24964 65969 57908 39577 60417 64193 128444 81361 344966 35504 56165 49401 21226 26399 94600 20934 134129 42657 172409 49303 38810 101630 26488 40746 95483 167581 39797 108439 33610 32450 37657 32842 66064 51255 67016 43473 71827 34613 47169 102651 36438 47791 30684 47280 97852 12814 61454 61565 36894 52580 129660 120247 33977 35249 31780 41273 180964 20019 64989 7784 26332 23214 26816 158109 23880 182343 111371 16704 40552 123798 51305 37948 40138 28025 24550 86310 19953 62071 108032 106117 35295 108794 44341 53215 118670 48850 26998 42335 43334 37103 50025 37864 36718 29063 38510 106041 41233 68434 32724 45463 14537 49130 96428 43984 28104 37527 42223 61346 36074 31039 42436 127326 38975 34070 23874 26084 69853 40638 236349 42617 27126 36757 30881 90158 46927 26905 89973 49182 26720 63200 30730 82978 32336 52754 81310 33088 33770 29543 39263 89397 52625 37486 29670 67907 100701 37060 44626 94474 56442 29015 29399 44958 14770 40294 74091 44586 35230 44170 90137 59762 138443 59700 111663 46492 274715 120189 30340 95596 35040 33368 54745 175733 75100 57111 19991 20252 192891 37953 93935 16261 33408 19282 72198 23733 28522 50656 56258 47714 52791 34074 97906 27571 19992 27470 42498 49945 39191 106546 41700 106977 44113 67917 49711 28968 32551 52734 43219 35963 140165 53323 23767 69079 77804 21473 34305 79315 106862 44798 109560 46053 20087 79150 5264 52332 26213 30700 46570 74306 88934 71393 26266 51451 57479 100146 47572 29052 53385 73049 71141 21175 66348 15221 76769 28880 24467 25855 93150 39042 28822 41358 35143 11700 14057 95751 110312 31001 32176 38146 98622 29664 38949 188296 6663 96889 51760 72949 45692 38754 23491 52048 36449 97403 24266 27805 44913 28500 129808 40723 30243 45921 39261 48576 36648 54536 81828 61126 102093 35673 52254 66792 45827 30593 29899 32162 103100 71521 88095 40441 34952 99259 31157 72948 48891 68418 73254 80375 27188 29430 39220 63106 45046 41592 29345 44704 32465 62401 42995 43429 26922 18823 106020 85016 37561 29330 36811 43422 117651 93341 89856 116492 77064 48245 35020 41713 46370 26162 39537 49564 14736 35780 38583 28939 68298 34312 50049 67867 116229 150877 39990 51298 112661 36243 59361 88902 33282 35055 37805 38308 58243 36325 31017 64870
Last daily increment 44 67 9 22 20 19 23 26 34 44 22 21 16 32 13 13 68 57 14 29 11 16 34 45 71 41 134 15 17 37 0 17 43 17 74 17 70 41 32 29 15 8 52 106 28 53 19 11 24 13 32 4 21 38 38 16 38 17 20 3 22 27 72 0 37 25 17 22 104 88 18 22 24 27 166 13 47 7 8 12 16 107 20 130 53 9 9 60 48 29 28 13 5 58 15 23 75 75 26 41 46 31 47 31 17 27 36 35 28 39 29 14 28 94 27 51 14 43 23 21 33 19 15 18 39 51 19 21 17 95 4 19 10 20 50 33 201 23 19 16 17 42 33 6 31 29 21 29 24 35 12 38 39 18 13 16 22 32 30 21 11 85 60 15 27 36 47 17 20 27 2 18 43 20 23 32 46 34 57 46 53 22 125 43 14 53 18 23 40 84 40 39 8 12 105 22 50 8 23 4 37 25 28 28 20 42 32 24 40 18 0 33 6 38 25 63 26 38 2 32 31 23 22 33 18 23 85 45 15 36 44 9 22 24 80 21 57 23 9 28 7 30 3 14 45 31 56 49 2 36 33 43 32 8 35 81 19 9 34 6 28 16 13 12 46 17 13 31 24 16 7 42 37 18 26 15 65 23 27 136 5 57 21 35 30 41 13 51 22 48 14 22 31 21 103 44 15 31 22 34 17 50 45 29 49 20 35 34 33 16 12 13 45 47 51 28 27 58 12 35 28 5 20 41 25 11 22 23 32 31 11 18 9 20 25 13 3 19 48 35 25 28 6 20 53 42 46 52 45 30 19 35 23 11 24 26 3 26 17 23 57 18 20 30 53 105 32 24 60 21 38 35 18 18 2 22 45 22 15 36
Last week 354 404 55 95 97 168 169 142 158 207 104 97 95 188 84 102 323 229 80 115 142 121 169 208 265 178 676 68 84 175 12 81 217 56 433 122 305 172 139 215 62 28 235 456 136 275 106 85 129 74 148 29 139 192 207 78 159 81 92 28 77 131 343 8 172 164 99 128 503 410 97 103 90 111 865 73 212 57 27 81 71 562 89 648 249 44 66 278 175 122 103 72 20 231 71 95 256 432 117 249 236 160 259 215 100 149 170 129 142 151 175 109 151 385 110 229 76 164 77 114 154 118 54 109 166 243 138 99 65 565 16 106 81 95 236 126 964 122 103 93 119 254 129 19 183 123 98 153 89 190 84 180 223 84 88 74 118 188 166 95 65 449 296 91 170 193 233 51 122 143 7 111 173 94 104 150 251 170 290 164 285 130 715 206 92 242 113 116 149 392 181 163 40 98 397 105 229 53 124 17 184 98 96 132 97 188 134 164 264 67 15 160 20 194 167 299 135 218 29 157 154 99 137 176 105 161 503 228 102 224 257 47 115 137 403 135 279 119 47 144 43 129 22 64 246 197 241 215 9 163 146 179 141 57 132 371 38 65 168 53 148 73 82 83 230 129 89 136 108 50 32 205 202 84 191 128 331 89 104 622 64 317 93 152 150 185 73 215 91 277 79 63 142 109 531 162 92 138 114 180 80 217 230 155 240 99 141 149 133 95 86 138 238 202 216 122 96 330 80 169 114 27 164 174 83 79 117 145 162 130 75 123 95 118 125 113 34 90 238 201 113 91 26 119 287 210 194 249 229 161 106 143 140 54 130 144 43 124 102 122 281 99 157 166 298 522 172 137 325 121 224 162 76 101 26 109 188 138 77 188
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-202022-01-242021-07-202022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-06-062022-01-242021-10-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-10-192022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-12-282021-07-152021-12-292021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-10-18 --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012022-01-242021-11-032021-12-282021-07-142022-01-242021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-132022-01-24 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2022-01-242021-08-242021-06-292022-01-242021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-15 --2022-01-24 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132022-01-242021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-062021-12-282021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-122022-01-242021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-12-282021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-172021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-152021-10-142021-09-022022-01-242022-01-242021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-162022-01-242022-01-242021-07-112021-07-162022-01-242021-07-29 -- --2022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-122021-09-15 --2022-01-242021-07-112022-01-242022-01-242021-12-27 --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 --2022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242021-10-182022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-08-032022-01-242021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-06-29 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-12-30 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192022-01-242021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-09-012021-08-17 --2022-01-242021-07-162022-01-24 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-152022-01-24 -- --2022-01-242021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-10-182021-07-152022-01-24 --2021-08-172022-01-242021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-172021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-12-28 --2021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-08
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 3477 4581 276 70 139 152 144 287 2285 379 3307 943 127 2250 126 962 4696 293 107 478 103 176 68 508 218 621 4 258 94 72 1302 74 2935 249 2895 1143 2214 1302 1131 115 528 101 3005 67 170 1033 1466 3801 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 1939 21 403 114 995 708 607 376 551 101 5019 122 140 1634 86 64 202 400 4687 137 188 4677 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 3182 1563 61 417 105 58 1189 128 185 88 171 421 482 67 56 884 274 1519 941 95 63 1137 163 323 229 2105 817 2104 152 61 1498 65 146 54 151 1707 82 90 203 3914 1327 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 3609 6117 3336 301 117 11029 6320 51 213 1176 99 3848 120 41 47 10177 1515 169 40 164 72 503 101 274 115 49 189 31 184 1329 384 1519 5335 518 164 123 94 256 1060 1294 1824 525 291 2931 77 1179 3811 87 5264 158 839 255 1562 291 1808 118 2613 2589 315 2199 4529 297 1065 114 289 268 776 140 67 213 75 73 49 4307 1311 1297 1206 259 344 253 951 78 123 857 96 8405 3240 277 202 118 768 1218 345 587 763 470 128 68 77 1609 106 1377 303 200 152 4073 70 131 3012 1783 1077 91 243 339 3812 201 428 57 145 101 890 329 219 968 143 2555 116 92 150 1551 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 422 79 5038 4407 157 313 2987 1563 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 4157 1188 63 397 117 1437 1060 138
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 59 18 51 163 103 28 53 51 54 99 87 179 80 406 33 47 31 21 45 124 39 190 42 75 22 28 83 100 2 100 38 34 55 31 43 97 43 97 122 31 99 22 56 21 143 25 46 94 98 164 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 107 5 29 25 29 227 190 143 19 39 163 49 43 40 41 32 63 142 85 56 26 150 58 49 49 57 36 30 35 136 49 25 19 38 23 45 44 80 41 67 199 36 29 19 22 75 49 199 21 30 49 76 22 57 45 39 89 75 27 85 32 32 18 70 81 41 37 59 115 39 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 100 95 49 74 44 269 77 20 66 41 43 66 51 17 14 129 31 77 11 75 30 58 36 58 32 24 22 2 75 42 120 35 103 32 54 61 39 68 52 157 44 56 115 99 22 32 136 42 108 50 15 87 96 29 9 19 148 106 22 86 84 49 38 51 68 125 15 61 17 69 20 21 17 66 54 55 59 20 21 104 41 28 40 35 33 182 149 91 64 40 28 46 58 48 35 149 59 28 35 30 42 33 55 94 56 161 34 49 48 60 33 38 118 78 78 62 96 24 64 24 56 103 85 22 34 70 35 37 63 74 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 40 36 79 68 70 94 69 88 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 58 59 31 28 52 36 37 59

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-04 to 2022-05-10

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-05-03 71006 78921 19446 31486 40711 36126 54883 54784 24393 81328 48754 42561 42944 67301 26177 69111 125545 89572 24964 65969 57908 39577 60417 64193 128444 81361 344966 35504 56165 49401 21226 26399 94600 20934 134129 42657 172409 49303 38810 101630 26488 40746 95483 167581 39797 108439 33610 32450 37657 32842 66064 51255 67016 43473 71827 34613 47169 102651 36438 47791 30684 47280 97852 12814 61454 61565 36894 52580 129660 120247 33977 35249 31780 41273 180964 20019 64989 7784 26332 23214 26816 158109 23880 182343 111371 16704 40552 123798 51305 37948 40138 28025 24550 86310 19953 62071 108032 106117 35295 108794 44341 53215 118670 48850 26998 42335 43334 37103 50025 37864 36718 29063 38510 106041 41233 68434 32724 45463 14537 49130 96428 43984 28104 37527 42223 61346 36074 31039 42436 127326 38975 34070 23874 26084 69853 40638 236349 42617 27126 36757 30881 90158 46927 26905 89973 49182 26720 63200 30730 82978 32336 52754 81310 33088 33770 29543 39263 89397 52625 37486 29670 67907 100701 37060 44626 94474 56442 29015 29399 44958 14770 40294 74091 44586 35230 44170 90137 59762 138443 59700 111663 46492 274715 120189 30340 95596 35040 33368 54745 175733 75100 57111 19991 20252 192891 37953 93935 16261 33408 19282 72198 23733 28522 50656 56258 47714 52791 34074 97906 27571 19992 27470 42498 49945 39191 106546 41700 106977 44113 67917 49711 28968 32551 52734 43219 35963 140165 53323 23767 69079 77804 21473 34305 79315 106862 44798 109560 46053 20087 79150 5264 52332 26213 30700 46570 74306 88934 71393 26266 51451 57479 100146 47572 29052 53385 73049 71141 21175 66348 15221 76769 28880 24467 25855 93150 39042 28822 41358 35143 11700 14057 95751 110312 31001 32176 38146 98622 29664 38949 188296 6663 96889 51760 72949 45692 38754 23491 52048 36449 97403 24266 27805 44913 28500 129808 40723 30243 45921 39261 48576 36648 54536 81828 61126 102093 35673 52254 66792 45827 30593 29899 32162 103100 71521 88095 40441 34952 99259 31157 72948 48891 68418 73254 80375 27188 29430 39220 63106 45046 41592 29345 44704 32465 62401 42995 43429 26922 18823 106020 85016 37561 29330 36811 43422 117651 93341 89856 116492 77064 48245 35020 41713 46370 26162 39537 49564 14736 35780 38583 28939 68298 34312 50049 67867 116229 150877 39990 51298 112661 36243 59361 88902 33282 35055 37805 38308 58243 36325 31017 64870
2022-05-04 71100 79090 19460 31520 40740 36180 54900 54810 24480 81370 48780 42590 42960 67350 26220 69170 125700 89630 24980 66110 57950 39610 60470 64230 128500 81460 345300 35520 56200 49440 21230 26410 94650 20950 134200 42690 172600 49350 38840 101700 26550 40750 95540 167600 39820 108600 33640 32460 37670 32860 66100 51260 67110 43490 71950 34630 47200 102700 36460 47800 30700 47310 97930 12820 61490 61610 36920 52620 129900 120300 34000 35270 31800 41310 181200 20040 65020 7921 26340 23230 26830 158200 23890 182400 111500 16710 40570 123800 51360 37990 40190 28040 24560 86350 19970 62090 108100 106200 35320 108900 44440 53260 118800 48960 27010 42350 43360 37130 50100 37920 36760 29080 38640 106200 41270 68510 32730 45510 14550 49140 96510 44030 28120 37540 42260 61520 36110 31060 42450 127500 38980 34150 23890 26100 70000 40680 237100 42650 27150 36780 30930 90240 46970 26910 90020 49210 26740 63260 30750 83060 32360 52870 81360 33100 33800 29580 39290 89560 52650 37510 29680 67960 100800 37080 44650 94530 56460 29030 29460 44990 14770 40310 74180 44650 35260 44210 90300 59830 138500 59740 111700 46510 274800 120200 30360 95680 35070 33400 54770 175900 75180 57150 20020 20270 193000 38020 94050 16270 33440 19280 72240 23790 28550 50690 56270 47750 52810 34120 98040 27590 20000 27510 42500 50010 39230 106600 41750 107100 44120 67950 49940 28980 32580 52780 43240 36040 140700 53360 23790 69190 77840 21490 34320 79360 107000 44820 109600 46080 20100 79210 5277 52390 26220 30720 46640 74390 89020 71450 26270 51480 57580 100200 47600 29080 53440 73140 71160 21190 66370 15230 76860 28900 24470 25870 93210 39100 28840 41390 35170 11720 14070 95790 110400 31030 32230 38170 98720 29690 38970 188500 6681 96980 51790 73000 45710 38830 23510 52090 36470 97450 24290 27830 44950 28580 130300 40760 30270 45950 39270 48620 36670 54620 81870 61230 102200 35700 52320 66840 45870 30620 29910 32220 103100 71570 88140 40470 34980 99400 31170 73000 48920 68440 73280 80410 27200 29470 39250 63210 45090 41620 29360 44740 32540 62480 43010 43530 26930 18840 106200 85120 37610 29370 36830 43440 117700 93370 89930 116600 77210 48290 35040 41750 46410 26180 39580 49600 14750 35910 38610 28970 68380 34340 50160 67930 116300 150900 40030 51330 112700 36280 59400 88930 33300 35100 37810 38340 58280 36350 31070 64910
2022-05-05 71400 79480 19480 31580 40770 36330 54920 54860 24540 81460 48820 42650 43000 67430 26310 69230 125800 89800 25030 66220 58070 39680 60560 64300 128700 81520 345600 35550 56250 49490 21240 26430 94770 20960 134400 42760 172700 49400 38900 101800 26590 40760 95600 167700 39860 108700 33680 32480 37680 32880 66130 51280 67180 43520 72040 34640 47250 102700 36480 47810 30760 47380 98060 12820 61520 61690 36970 52700 130000 120300 34030 35300 31860 41340 182000 20120 65060 8002 26350 23280 26860 158500 23920 182500 111600 16730 40600 123900 51410 38050 40230 28060 24570 86440 20010 62110 108200 106400 35350 109000 44710 53320 118900 49040 27030 42380 43440 37190 50160 38010 36820 29120 38740 106300 41330 68650 32770 45580 14560 49160 96560 44070 28150 37570 42330 61650 36170 31070 42480 127800 38990 34210 23910 26140 70100 40720 237700 42690 27190 36820 31010 90310 47040 26920 90120 49250 26770 63310 30770 83130 32410 52940 81440 33140 33860 29650 39320 89670 52680 37560 29700 68080 100800 37110 44680 94630 56500 29070 29510 45020 14780 40340 74240 44680 35300 44280 90410 59890 138700 59790 111800 46540 274900 120300 30390 95760 35100 33440 54790 176100 75240 57220 20040 20310 193100 38070 94140 16280 33490 19290 72280 23840 28600 50720 56280 47790 52840 34270 98150 27640 20010 27640 42520 50070 39270 106700 41800 107100 44140 67990 50100 29020 32600 52850 43290 36100 141000 53410 23840 69290 77890 21540 34350 79450 107200 44850 109700 46140 20120 79270 5306 52440 26240 30730 46850 74470 89200 71560 26270 51520 57640 100300 47640 29130 53490 73380 71190 21230 66400 15240 76950 28960 24500 25890 93270 39150 28880 41450 35210 11730 14080 95850 110500 31080 32330 38200 98930 29710 38980 188600 6733 97170 51820 73100 45750 38900 23560 52130 36490 97520 24320 27850 45020 28630 130700 40840 30320 45980 39280 48720 36710 54700 81920 61330 102300 35730 52450 66940 45940 30670 29930 32380 103200 71660 88200 40500 35040 99500 31200 73060 48980 68470 73340 80450 27220 29500 39340 63280 45170 41650 29400 44800 32590 62560 43030 43600 26940 18870 106300 85190 37650 29410 36840 43460 117900 93460 89980 116700 77320 48370 35080 41800 46480 26190 39620 49680 14790 35990 38630 29020 68660 34390 50250 67980 116300 151000 40090 51370 112900 36340 59450 88970 33320 35130 37820 38400 58350 36390 31110 64980
2022-05-06 71610 79750 19510 31630 40810 36440 54940 54900 24580 81530 48860 42700 43040 67500 26380 69270 125900 89920 25070 66300 58160 39730 60640 64350 128800 81570 345800 35580 56300 49540 21250 26450 94860 20980 134600 42810 172800 49450 38940 101900 26620 40770 95660 167800 39900 108900 33720 32500 37690 32900 66160 51290 67220 43550 72100 34660 47290 102700 36500 47830 30790 47430 98180 12820 61550 61760 37010 52770 130100 120400 34060 35330 31910 41370 182600 20180 65110 8061 26360 23320 26880 158700 23940 182700 111700 16740 40620 123900 51450 38110 40260 28080 24580 86520 20040 62140 108200 106600 35380 109100 44900 53370 118900 49100 27050 42410 43500 37240 50210 38080 36870 29150 38810 106300 41380 68770 32800 45650 14580 49170 96610 44100 28170 37600 42390 61740 36220 31080 42500 128000 38990 34260 23930 26170 70170 40760 238100 42740 27220 36860 31080 90370 47100 26930 90200 49290 26790 63350 30800 83170 32450 53000 81510 33170 33900 29710 39350 89750 52720 37590 29710 68180 100900 37130 44710 94700 56530 29100 29540 45050 14790 40360 74280 44710 35340 44340 90500 59950 138800 59830 111800 46550 275000 120300 30420 95810 35120 33480 54820 176200 75270 57270 20050 20330 193200 38110 94230 16300 33530 19290 72320 23870 28640 50760 56300 47830 52860 34380 98220 27670 20010 27730 42530 50110 39310 106700 41830 107200 44150 68020 50200 29040 32630 52920 43330 36150 141300 53450 23870 69360 77940 21570 34370 79530 107300 44890 109700 46190 20140 79310 5327 52480 26260 30750 47010 74530 89340 71660 26280 51560 57680 100300 47680 29170 53540 73560 71210 21250 66420 15250 77000 29010 24510 25920 93310 39180 28910 41500 35250 11750 14090 95900 110600 31120 32410 38230 99090 29740 39000 188700 6770 97310 51850 73180 45790 38950 23600 52170 36520 97580 24360 27870 45070 28670 130900 40900 30360 46020 39290 48800 36750 54750 81970 61390 102400 35740 52550 67020 46000 30710 29950 32500 103200 71730 88240 40530 35090 99600 31230 73090 49030 68480 73390 80490 27240 29530 39400 63350 45240 41690 29430 44850 32640 62610 43050 43660 26950 18890 106400 85250 37690 29440 36850 43490 118100 93530 90020 116800 77390 48440 35110 41850 46540 26200 39650 49750 14820 36040 38660 29070 68850 34430 50320 68020 116400 151100 40140 51410 113000 36400 59500 89000 33350 35160 37820 38450 58410 36420 31140 65030
2022-05-07 71770 79960 19530 31680 40840 36520 54950 54930 24610 81590 48900 42740 43070 67550 26440 69310 126000 90010 25100 66370 58240 39770 60720 64390 128900 81620 345900 35600 56340 49580 21250 26470 94930 20990 134700 42860 172900 49500 38970 101900 26650 40780 95730 167800 39930 109000 33750 32510 37710 32920 66190 51300 67250 43570 72130 34680 47340 102700 36520 47840 30830 47470 98280 12830 61570 61820 37050 52830 130200 120400 34090 35360 31950 41390 183000 20220 65160 8097 26370 23350 26910 158900 23960 182700 111700 16750 40650 124000 51470 38150 40290 28100 24580 86590 20070 62150 108300 106800 35420 109200 45040 53420 119000 49160 27080 42440 43540 37280 50260 38150 36910 29170 38850 106400 41430 68880 32820 45710 14590 49170 96630 44130 28190 37620 42440 61800 36270 31100 42520 128200 38990 34300 23940 26200 70240 40790 238400 42780 27250 36890 31130 90420 47160 26930 90270 49320 26820 63380 30820 83200 32490 53040 81560 33200 33940 29750 39380 89820 52760 37630 29730 68270 100900 37150 44750 94770 56560 29130 29580 45090 14790 40380 74310 44730 35370 44390 90570 59990 138900 59870 111900 46580 275100 120400 30450 95850 35140 33520 54840 176300 75300 57330 20070 20350 193200 38130 94290 16310 33570 19300 72340 23900 28680 50800 56320 47870 52890 34460 98280 27690 20020 27810 42530 50160 39350 106800 41860 107200 44160 68050 50280 29070 32660 52970 43360 36190 141400 53500 23910 69440 77990 21600 34390 79600 107400 44920 109800 46220 20160 79330 5345 52510 26270 30770 47120 74590 89460 71740 26280 51590 57710 100300 47710 29200 53570 73710 71230 21280 66440 15250 77050 29040 24520 25940 93340 39200 28940 41550 35290 11770 14100 95950 110600 31160 32480 38270 99220 29770 39010 188800 6799 97440 51880 73250 45830 38980 23630 52220 36540 97650 24390 27890 45130 28700 131000 40960 30390 46060 39310 48870 36780 54790 82020 61430 102400 35760 52640 67090 46050 30740 29970 32590 103300 71790 88270 40570 35130 99800 31250 73120 49080 68480 73450 80530 27260 29550 39460 63390 45300 41730 29460 44900 32670 62650 43070 43710 26950 18920 106500 85290 37720 29470 36850 43510 118200 93570 90060 116900 77450 48500 35130 41900 46590 26200 39690 49810 14840 36090 38680 29110 69000 34470 50370 68050 116500 151200 40190 51460 113100 36440 59560 89030 33370 35180 37830 38500 58450 36450 31160 65070
2022-05-08 71920 80150 19550 31720 40880 36600 54970 54960 24660 81660 48940 42770 43100 67600 26500 69350 126100 90100 25130 66450 58310 39820 60790 64440 129000 81660 346200 35620 56370 49620 21260 26500 94990 21010 134800 42910 173000 49560 39010 102000 26670 40780 95800 167900 39970 109000 33790 32530 37720 32940 66220 51310 67290 43630 72180 34700 47380 102700 36540 47840 30860 47510 98390 12830 61590 61880 37090 52890 130300 120500 34120 35400 31980 41410 183400 20260 65200 8155 26380 23380 26930 159100 23980 182800 111800 16760 40670 124100 51500 38200 40330 28120 24590 86660 20100 62170 108400 106900 35450 109300 45180 53470 119000 49240 27100 42470 43590 37330 50320 38210 36960 29200 38900 106500 41470 68980 32830 45760 14610 49190 96660 44170 28210 37650 42500 61850 36320 31110 42540 128400 39000 34360 23960 26230 70310 40830 238700 42820 27280 36920 31180 90460 47220 26930 90350 49350 26840 63400 30840 83260 32520 53110 81620 33230 33980 29800 39420 89880 52800 37660 29740 68360 101000 37170 44790 94830 56590 29150 29620 45130 14800 40420 74350 44750 35410 44440 90650 60040 138900 59910 111900 46620 275200 120500 30480 95890 35160 33560 54860 176400 75330 57380 20090 20370 193300 38160 94360 16320 33610 19300 72350 23930 28720 50850 56340 47900 52920 34540 98340 27720 20020 27870 42540 50200 39390 106800 41900 107300 44160 68090 50340 29100 32690 53030 43380 36240 141600 53550 23940 69510 78040 21630 34420 79670 107500 44960 109800 46260 20170 79370 5362 52550 26280 30780 47230 74640 89580 71810 26280 51620 57740 100400 47740 29230 53620 73840 71250 21300 66460 15260 77110 29080 24540 25960 93380 39230 28970 41590 35320 11780 14110 96010 110700 31190 32550 38300 99350 29800 39030 189000 6827 97570 51920 73320 45870 39000 23660 52270 36570 97730 24420 27920 45180 28720 131200 41010 30430 46100 39320 48940 36810 54840 82080 61490 102500 35780 52720 67150 46110 30780 29990 32670 103300 71860 88320 40600 35170 99900 31270 73160 49120 68490 73500 80560 27280 29580 39520 63440 45360 41760 29500 44950 32700 62700 43100 43750 26960 18940 106500 85340 37760 29490 36860 43540 118300 93620 90080 117000 77500 48560 35150 41950 46650 26220 39720 49870 14870 36090 38690 29150 69130 34500 50410 68080 116500 151300 40240 51500 113200 36490 59610 89050 33400 35210 37840 38550 58500 36480 31190 65110
2022-05-09 72050 80300 19570 31760 40910 36670 54980 54990 24700 81720 48970 42810 43130 67650 26540 69390 126200 90180 25160 66510 58380 39860 60850 64480 129000 81710 346300 35640 56400 49650 21260 26520 95050 21030 135000 42960 173100 49610 39040 102000 26700 40790 95880 167900 40010 109200 33820 32540 37730 32960 66250 51320 67320 43670 72220 34720 47420 102700 36570 47850 30880 47540 98500 12830 61630 61930 37130 52950 130400 120500 34150 35430 32020 41430 183700 20290 65250 8192 26380 23410 26950 159300 24000 182900 111900 16770 40690 124100 51530 38240 40360 28140 24590 86730 20120 62190 108400 107100 35480 109400 45290 53510 119100 49290 27120 42500 43620 37370 50370 38260 37000 29220 38940 106600 41510 69080 32850 45820 14620 49200 96700 44210 28230 37670 42550 61920 36370 31130 42560 128600 39000 34400 23980 26250 70390 40860 238900 42860 27310 36950 31230 90500 47270 26940 90410 49370 26870 63430 30870 83300 32560 53160 81670 33260 34010 29840 39450 89960 52840 37700 29750 68450 101000 37190 44820 94880 56640 29160 29640 45160 14800 40450 74390 44770 35440 44490 90730 60100 139000 59950 112000 46640 275200 120500 30510 95930 35180 33590 54880 176600 75360 57440 20100 20390 193400 38200 94440 16340 33650 19300 72380 23960 28750 50890 56360 47930 52950 34600 98410 27740 20020 27930 42540 50240 39430 106900 41940 107300 44170 68110 50400 29120 32730 53080 43410 36280 141700 53590 23970 69600 78090 21650 34440 79730 107500 44990 109900 46290 20190 79400 5378 52590 26290 30800 47320 74710 89690 71880 26280 51650 57770 100400 47770 29260 53660 73960 71260 21320 66480 15270 77160 29110 24550 25980 93420 39260 29000 41640 35360 11790 14120 96070 110700 31220 32610 38330 99460 29820 39040 189200 6851 97690 51960 73380 45910 39030 23680 52320 36590 97800 24450 27940 45230 28750 131300 41070 30460 46150 39330 49010 36840 54890 82130 61540 102600 35790 52790 67210 46150 30810 30010 32740 103300 71920 88360 40640 35210 100000 31280 73190 49160 68500 73560 80600 27300 29600 39570 63500 45420 41800 29520 45000 32730 62740 43120 43800 26970 18960 106600 85390 37790 29520 36860 43570 118400 93660 90130 117100 77570 48610 35180 41990 46700 26240 39750 49930 14890 36110 38720 29180 69240 34540 50470 68110 116600 151300 40290 51550 113300 36530 59660 89070 33420 35240 37840 38590 58540 36510 31220 65150
2022-05-10 72170 80450 19590 31790 40940 36730 55000 55020 24740 81790 49010 42840 43160 67690 26590 69420 126300 90260 25180 66540 58450 39900 60910 64520 129100 81740 346500 35660 56430 49690 21260 26540 95100 21040 135100 43000 173200 49660 39070 102000 26720 40790 95960 168000 40050 109200 33850 32570 37740 32970 66280 51320 67360 43730 72260 34740 47470 102800 36590 47850 30910 47580 98600 12830 61650 61990 37170 53000 130500 120600 34180 35460 32050 41460 184000 20310 65300 8200 26390 23430 26980 159500 24020 183100 112000 16780 40720 124300 51580 38280 40400 28160 24590 86790 20140 62210 108500 107200 35520 109500 45400 53550 119100 49340 27150 42540 43660 37410 50410 38320 37050 29240 38980 106800 41550 69170 32860 45870 14640 49230 96740 44240 28240 37690 42600 62020 36410 31140 42570 128700 39000 34420 24010 26280 70440 40900 239200 42900 27340 36980 31280 90550 47320 26940 90480 49400 26900 63460 30890 83330 32590 53220 81710 33290 34040 29880 39480 89970 52880 37730 29760 68540 101100 37210 44860 94930 56710 29180 29680 45200 14800 40480 74420 44790 35470 44550 90810 60160 139100 59990 112000 46680 275400 120600 30530 95990 35220 33620 54900 176700 75400 57490 20120 20420 193500 38230 94520 16350 33680 19310 72410 23990 28790 50940 56390 47970 52970 34650 98450 27750 20020 27980 42550 50310 39470 106900 41980 107300 44180 68140 50460 29140 32760 53120 43430 36320 141900 53640 24010 69660 78140 21670 34470 79800 107600 45020 109900 46320 20200 79450 5392 52640 26300 30810 47400 74770 89790 71950 26280 51680 57810 100400 47800 29290 53710 74070 71280 21330 66500 15280 77200 29140 24570 26010 93470 39280 29030 41680 35390 11810 14130 96120 110800 31250 32660 38360 99560 29850 39060 189300 6873 97800 51990 73440 45950 39100 23710 52380 36620 97870 24470 27970 45280 28780 131500 41120 30500 46190 39340 49070 36870 54950 82180 61590 102700 35800 52860 67270 46200 30840 30030 32810 103400 71980 88450 40680 35250 100100 31300 73230 49210 68500 73610 80640 27320 29630 39620 63550 45470 41840 29550 45040 32760 62780 43150 43840 26970 18990 106700 85430 37830 29560 36870 43600 118500 93690 90170 117200 77610 48670 35200 42040 46750 26260 39790 49980 14910 36140 38750 29220 69340 34580 50530 68140 116700 151400 40340 51590 113400 36570 59710 89100 33450 35270 37840 38630 58580 36540 31250 65190

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-04 to 2022-05-10

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-05-03 71006 78921 19446 31486 40711 36126 54883 54784 24393 81328 48754 42561 42944 67301 26177 69111 125545 89572 24964 65969 57908 39577 60417 64193 128444 81361 344966 35504 56165 49401 21226 26399 94600 20934 134129 42657 172409 49303 38810 101630 26488 40746 95483 167581 39797 108439 33610 32450 37657 32842 66064 51255 67016 43473 71827 34613 47169 102651 36438 47791 30684 47280 97852 12814 61454 61565 36894 52580 129660 120247 33977 35249 31780 41273 180964 20019 64989 7784 26332 23214 26816 158109 23880 182343 111371 16704 40552 123798 51305 37948 40138 28025 24550 86310 19953 62071 108032 106117 35295 108794 44341 53215 118670 48850 26998 42335 43334 37103 50025 37864 36718 29063 38510 106041 41233 68434 32724 45463 14537 49130 96428 43984 28104 37527 42223 61346 36074 31039 42436 127326 38975 34070 23874 26084 69853 40638 236349 42617 27126 36757 30881 90158 46927 26905 89973 49182 26720 63200 30730 82978 32336 52754 81310 33088 33770 29543 39263 89397 52625 37486 29670 67907 100701 37060 44626 94474 56442 29015 29399 44958 14770 40294 74091 44586 35230 44170 90137 59762 138443 59700 111663 46492 274715 120189 30340 95596 35040 33368 54745 175733 75100 57111 19991 20252 192891 37953 93935 16261 33408 19282 72198 23733 28522 50656 56258 47714 52791 34074 97906 27571 19992 27470 42498 49945 39191 106546 41700 106977 44113 67917 49711 28968 32551 52734 43219 35963 140165 53323 23767 69079 77804 21473 34305 79315 106862 44798 109560 46053 20087 79150 5264 52332 26213 30700 46570 74306 88934 71393 26266 51451 57479 100146 47572 29052 53385 73049 71141 21175 66348 15221 76769 28880 24467 25855 93150 39042 28822 41358 35143 11700 14057 95751 110312 31001 32176 38146 98622 29664 38949 188296 6663 96889 51760 72949 45692 38754 23491 52048 36449 97403 24266 27805 44913 28500 129808 40723 30243 45921 39261 48576 36648 54536 81828 61126 102093 35673 52254 66792 45827 30593 29899 32162 103100 71521 88095 40441 34952 99259 31157 72948 48891 68418 73254 80375 27188 29430 39220 63106 45046 41592 29345 44704 32465 62401 42995 43429 26922 18823 106020 85016 37561 29330 36811 43422 117651 93341 89856 116492 77064 48245 35020 41713 46370 26162 39537 49564 14736 35780 38583 28939 68298 34312 50049 67867 116229 150877 39990 51298 112661 36243 59361 88902 33282 35055 37805 38308 58243 36325 31017 64870
2022-05-04 71060 78990 19460 31510 40730 36150 54920 54810 24430 81380 48780 42590 42970 67340 26200 69140 125600 89620 24980 66020 57940 39610 60450 64240 128500 81400 345100 35530 56190 49430 21230 26410 94650 20950 134200 42680 172500 49330 38840 101700 26500 40750 95530 167700 39830 108500 33630 32460 37690 32860 66090 51260 67060 43500 71880 34630 47210 102700 36460 47790 30710 47310 97930 12820 61490 61590 36920 52620 129800 120300 34000 35270 31800 41300 181100 20030 65040 7802 26340 23240 26830 158200 23900 182500 111400 16710 40570 123800 51350 37980 40160 28040 24560 86360 19970 62090 108100 106200 35320 108900 44370 53240 118700 48900 27020 42370 43380 37130 50050 37900 36750 29080 38550 106100 41270 68470 32750 45490 14550 49150 96480 44010 28120 37550 42260 61390 36100 31060 42450 127400 38980 34100 23890 26110 69910 40670 236500 42640 27150 36780 30910 90200 46960 26910 90020 49210 26740 63240 30750 83040 32350 52800 81360 33110 33790 29570 39290 89450 52670 37510 29680 67960 100800 37080 44660 94520 56480 29030 29420 44980 14770 40310 74140 44610 35260 44210 90200 59800 138500 59730 111700 46510 274900 120300 30360 95670 35060 33390 54780 175800 75160 57160 20000 20270 193000 37980 93990 16270 33430 19290 72230 23750 28550 50680 56280 47750 52820 34090 97970 27590 19990 27520 42500 49990 39220 106600 41730 107000 44120 67950 49770 29000 32580 52760 43240 36000 140300 53360 23790 69130 77840 21490 34330 79350 107000 44820 109600 46080 20100 79180 5275 52370 26220 30710 46640 74350 88990 71440 26270 51480 57520 100200 47600 29070 53420 73110 71150 21190 66390 15230 76800 28900 24480 25870 93180 39070 28840 41390 35170 11710 14070 95780 110400 31020 32200 38170 98690 29680 38970 188400 6675 96970 51780 72980 45730 38810 23510 52090 36470 97470 24280 27820 44950 28540 130000 40760 30260 45960 39280 48630 36670 54590 81890 61170 102200 35690 52290 66820 45860 30610 29920 32180 103100 71560 88140 40460 34980 99320 31180 72990 48920 68430 73290 80410 27200 29450 39260 63150 45090 41620 29360 44740 32490 62440 43020 43460 26930 18840 106100 85050 37590 29350 36810 43450 117700 93380 89910 116600 77130 48280 35040 41750 46400 26180 39560 49600 14750 35810 38600 28970 68350 34340 50090 67910 116300 151000 40020 51330 112700 36270 59410 88940 33300 35080 37810 38330 58290 36350 31040 64910
2022-05-05 71220 79180 19480 31540 40760 36230 54950 54840 24480 81430 48820 42620 43010 67400 26230 69180 125700 89710 25010 66070 58010 39640 60490 64300 128600 81460 345400 35560 56220 49480 21230 26430 94730 20960 134400 42730 172600 49380 38880 101800 26530 40760 95590 167800 39870 108600 33660 32490 37720 32870 66120 51270 67110 43540 71940 34650 47250 102700 36490 47810 30740 47340 98020 12820 61530 61640 36940 52670 129900 120400 34020 35300 31830 41330 181600 20070 65100 7830 26350 23270 26850 158400 23920 182600 111500 16730 40600 123900 51400 38010 40190 28060 24560 86430 19990 62120 108200 106300 35350 108900 44490 53300 118800 48970 27040 42410 43470 37170 50080 37940 36820 29110 38620 106200 41310 68560 32780 45540 14570 49180 96540 44050 28140 37570 42300 61480 36150 31080 42460 127700 38980 34130 23910 26130 69980 40700 236900 42680 27170 36800 30940 90270 47000 26920 90090 49240 26760 63290 30770 83100 32380 52850 81430 33140 33820 29600 39320 89510 52730 37540 29700 68120 100800 37100 44710 94590 56540 29050 29470 45020 14780 40350 74190 44650 35280 44260 90280 59850 138600 59770 111800 46550 275000 120300 30390 95760 35100 33430 54810 176000 75220 57210 20020 20300 193100 38010 94070 16290 33460 19290 72280 23780 28580 50710 56310 47780 52850 34180 98060 27610 20000 27590 42510 50040 39260 106700 41760 107100 44130 67980 49850 29020 32600 52800 43270 36040 140600 53400 23810 69190 77920 21510 34360 79410 107100 44870 109700 46120 20110 79230 5295 52400 26230 30730 46750 74410 89060 71510 26270 51520 57560 100300 47640 29090 53460 73240 71160 21210 66440 15250 76860 28940 24500 25900 93240 39110 28870 41440 35200 11720 14080 95840 110400 31050 32270 38200 98780 29700 39000 188500 6699 97070 51810 73040 45770 38870 23540 52150 36490 97540 24300 27840 44990 28580 130200 40810 30290 46000 39310 48680 36690 54640 81950 61240 102200 35720 52350 66870 45900 30640 29940 32250 103200 71620 88200 40490 35010 99410 31200 73040 48960 68440 73340 80460 27220 29480 39300 63200 45140 41650 29390 44780 32520 62490 43050 43490 26930 18850 106200 85110 37620 29380 36820 43490 117800 93460 89970 116600 77190 48320 35080 41790 46450 26200 39600 49640 14760 35860 38630 29000 68480 34370 50140 67940 116400 151100 40060 51370 112800 36310 59460 88990 33320 35100 37820 38370 58340 36390 31070 64970
2022-05-06 71340 79310 19490 31570 40780 36290 54990 54870 24510 81490 48860 42650 43050 67450 26250 69210 125800 89780 25040 66120 58060 39670 60540 64360 128600 81500 345500 35580 56250 49510 21240 26460 94790 20970 134500 42760 172700 49420 38910 101800 26550 40770 95650 167900 39900 108700 33690 32520 37750 32890 66160 51280 67140 43580 71990 34680 47290 102700 36510 47810 30770 47360 98100 12820 61560 61700 36970 52720 130000 120500 34050 35330 31860 41360 181900 20100 65160 7852 26360 23290 26870 158500 23940 182700 111600 16740 40630 124000 51440 38040 40220 28080 24570 86500 20010 62140 108200 106400 35380 109000 44590 53340 118900 49030 27070 42440 43530 37210 50120 37970 36870 29140 38670 106300 41350 68630 32810 45580 14580 49200 96600 44080 28160 37600 42340 61560 36180 31100 42470 127800 38990 34160 23930 26150 70040 40730 237200 42710 27200 36830 30980 90330 47030 26920 90160 49270 26780 63340 30790 83160 32400 52900 81490 33170 33840 29630 39350 89570 52780 37570 29720 68230 100900 37120 44750 94660 56590 29070 29490 45060 14780 40380 74230 44670 35310 44300 90350 59890 138700 59810 111900 46580 275200 120400 30420 95820 35130 33460 54830 176000 75270 57260 20030 20320 193200 38040 94140 16300 33490 19290 72330 23800 28610 50740 56340 47800 52880 34230 98130 27630 20000 27650 42520 50100 39290 106700 41790 107100 44140 68000 49910 29050 32620 52840 43290 36080 140800 53450 23840 69250 77980 21530 34390 79460 107200 44910 109700 46160 20120 79270 5312 52430 26230 30740 46850 74460 89130 71560 26280 51560 57600 100300 47670 29120 53500 73340 71170 21230 66490 15260 76900 28970 24510 25920 93290 39140 28890 41470 35230 11730 14090 95880 110500 31080 32320 38230 98860 29720 39020 188600 6721 97170 51850 73090 45810 38930 23560 52200 36520 97610 24320 27860 45030 28610 130400 40850 30320 46040 39330 48740 36710 54680 82000 61290 102300 35740 52390 66910 45940 30660 29960 32290 103300 71670 88250 40520 35040 99490 31220 73080 49000 68450 73400 80500 27240 29500 39340 63250 45180 41680 29420 44820 32550 62530 43080 43530 26940 18870 106200 85160 37650 29400 36830 43520 117900 93520 90020 116700 77240 48360 35100 41830 46490 26210 39630 49690 14770 35900 38660 29030 68570 34390 50190 67980 116400 151200 40100 51410 112900 36340 59520 89040 33340 35130 37820 38400 58390 36420 31090 65010
2022-05-07 71450 79420 19510 31590 40810 36330 55020 54890 24540 81540 48890 42680 43080 67490 26280 69250 125900 89840 25060 66160 58110 39710 60580 64400 128700 81550 345700 35610 56270 49540 21240 26470 94850 20980 134600 42800 172800 49460 38940 101900 26560 40770 95700 168000 39940 108800 33720 32530 37770 32910 66190 51280 67180 43610 72040 34700 47330 102700 36540 47810 30790 47390 98180 12820 61600 61740 37000 52770 130100 120600 34070 35360 31890 41380 182100 20130 65210 7866 26360 23320 26890 158700 23970 182900 111700 16750 40660 124100 51480 38070 40250 28100 24570 86560 20020 62160 108300 106600 35410 109100 44670 53370 119000 49080 27090 42480 43590 37240 50160 38000 36910 29160 38700 106400 41380 68680 32840 45610 14590 49220 96640 44110 28180 37620 42370 61630 36230 31120 42490 128000 38990 34190 23950 26180 70090 40760 237500 42740 27220 36850 31010 90400 47070 26930 90220 49300 26800 63380 30810 83200 32430 52940 81550 33200 33860 29650 39390 89620 52840 37600 29730 68350 101000 37140 44800 94720 56640 29080 29520 45090 14780 40410 74280 44690 35340 44340 90410 59930 138800 59840 112000 46620 275400 120500 30440 95890 35160 33490 54860 176100 75320 57310 20050 20330 193200 38070 94200 16310 33520 19290 72370 23820 28640 50780 56370 47830 52910 34270 98210 27650 20000 27700 42520 50150 39320 106800 41820 107200 44150 68030 49960 29080 32650 52870 43320 36120 140900 53490 23860 69310 78040 21550 34410 79510 107300 44950 109800 46190 20130 79300 5328 52460 26240 30750 46920 74520 89190 71620 26280 51590 57640 100400 47700 29140 53540 73420 71180 21240 66540 15270 76940 28990 24520 25940 93330 39170 28910 41510 35260 11740 14090 95930 110500 31110 32370 38270 98930 29750 39050 188800 6738 97270 51880 73140 45850 38970 23580 52250 36550 97680 24340 27880 45070 28640 130600 40880 30350 46080 39360 48800 36730 54720 82060 61330 102300 35770 52440 66950 45980 30690 29990 32330 103300 71720 88300 40550 35070 99570 31250 73120 49040 68460 73450 80540 27250 29530 39380 63290 45230 41720 29440 44860 32570 62570 43110 43560 26940 18880 106300 85210 37680 29430 36830 43550 117900 93570 90070 116800 77290 48400 35130 41870 46530 26230 39660 49730 14790 35930 38680 29060 68660 34420 50230 68000 116500 151400 40130 51440 113000 36370 59570 89090 33370 35150 37820 38430 58440 36440 31120 65060
2022-05-08 71530 79520 19530 31620 40840 36380 55050 54920 24580 81590 48930 42710 43120 67550 26300 69290 126000 89900 25090 66210 58160 39740 60620 64450 128800 81600 345900 35630 56300 49570 21250 26500 94910 20990 134700 42840 172800 49510 38970 102000 26580 40780 95770 168100 39980 108900 33740 32560 37800 32930 66230 51290 67220 43670 72110 34720 47370 102700 36560 47820 30820 47410 98270 12830 61630 61790 37030 52820 130200 120700 34100 35390 31920 41410 182400 20150 65270 7896 26370 23340 26910 158800 23990 183000 111700 16770 40690 124200 51510 38110 40270 28120 24580 86620 20040 62180 108400 106700 35450 109200 44730 53410 119000 49130 27120 42520 43650 37270 50200 38040 36960 29190 38750 106500 41420 68730 32870 45640 14610 49260 96700 44140 28200 37660 42410 61680 36260 31140 42500 128200 38990 34220 23970 26200 70140 40790 237700 42770 27250 36880 31050 90450 47110 26930 90280 49340 26830 63410 30830 83260 32450 53000 81610 33230 33890 29690 39420 89680 52890 37620 29750 68440 101000 37170 44850 94780 56690 29090 29550 45130 14780 40450 74320 44710 35370 44380 90490 59970 138900 59880 112000 46650 275500 120500 30470 95950 35190 33510 54880 176200 75370 57360 20060 20360 193300 38090 94270 16330 33550 19300 72410 23840 28670 50810 56390 47860 52940 34310 98280 27670 20010 27750 42530 50200 39350 106900 41850 107200 44150 68050 50010 29100 32680 52910 43340 36150 141100 53540 23890 69370 78100 21570 34440 79570 107400 44980 109800 46220 20140 79340 5345 52500 26240 30770 47000 74570 89280 71670 26280 51620 57680 100400 47740 29160 53580 73530 71190 21260 66590 15290 76980 29020 24550 25970 93390 39210 28940 41550 35290 11750 14110 95980 110600 31130 32410 38300 99000 29770 39080 189000 6756 97360 51910 73190 45890 39010 23600 52300 36570 97750 24360 27900 45110 28660 130700 40930 30370 46120 39380 48850 36760 54760 82120 61390 102400 35800 52490 67000 46020 30710 30010 32380 103400 71770 88360 40580 35100 99650 31270 73170 49070 68460 73510 80590 27270 29550 39420 63340 45270 41750 29470 44900 32600 62620 43150 43600 26950 18900 106300 85260 37710 29450 36840 43590 118000 93640 90120 116900 77340 48440 35160 41910 46570 26240 39690 49770 14800 35950 38710 29080 68740 34450 50280 68020 116600 151500 40170 51480 113100 36410 59620 89140 33390 35170 37830 38460 58490 36470 31140 65100
2022-05-09 71660 79690 19540 31650 40870 36450 55080 54950 24630 81640 48980 42740 43150 67600 26330 69330 126100 89960 25110 66260 58220 39770 60670 64510 128800 81670 346100 35660 56330 49610 21250 26520 94980 21000 134900 42880 172900 49560 39010 102000 26610 40780 95860 168200 40030 109000 33770 32580 37840 32940 66270 51300 67260 43720 72170 34750 47410 102700 36590 47820 30840 47440 98360 12830 61670 61840 37060 52870 130300 120800 34130 35430 31950 41440 182800 20180 65320 7924 26370 23370 26930 159000 24020 183100 111800 16780 40730 124300 51560 38140 40310 28140 24580 86690 20060 62200 108500 106800 35480 109300 44840 53470 119100 49210 27140 42560 43710 37310 50260 38080 37010 29210 38810 106600 41460 68830 32900 45700 14620 49310 96770 44180 28220 37690 42460 61780 36310 31170 42510 128300 39000 34260 23990 26220 70200 40820 238100 42800 27280 36910 31080 90530 47150 26930 90350 49370 26850 63470 30860 83320 32480 53060 81680 33260 33910 29720 39460 89760 52950 37650 29770 68590 101100 37190 44900 94850 56750 29110 29590 45160 14780 40490 74380 44740 35400 44420 90570 60030 139000 59910 112100 46690 275700 120600 30500 96030 35220 33550 54910 176300 75420 57410 20090 20380 193400 38130 94350 16340 33580 19300 72470 23870 28690 50850 56420 47880 52980 34380 98370 27690 20010 27810 42530 50260 39390 107000 41890 107300 44160 68080 50070 29130 32710 52960 43370 36200 141300 53580 23920 69430 78180 21590 34470 79630 107500 45020 109900 46260 20160 79380 5360 52540 26250 30780 47070 74640 89350 71740 26280 51660 57730 100500 47780 29180 53620 73640 71190 21270 66640 15300 77030 29050 24560 25990 93450 39240 28960 41590 35320 11750 14120 96040 110700 31160 32480 38340 99090 29790 39110 189200 6775 97470 51960 73240 45940 39070 23630 52360 36600 97840 24380 27920 45150 28700 130900 40970 30400 46160 39410 48910 36790 54810 82190 61450 102500 35830 52530 67050 46060 30730 30040 32430 103500 71830 88430 40610 35130 99740 31300 73230 49110 68470 73570 80640 27290 29580 39460 63390 45320 41800 29500 44950 32630 62670 43190 43630 26950 18920 106400 85320 37750 29480 36850 43630 118100 93700 90190 117000 77400 48480 35190 41950 46620 26260 39720 49820 14810 36000 38740 29120 68820 34480 50340 68050 116600 151600 40210 51530 113200 36440 59670 89200 33420 35200 37840 38500 58540 36510 31180 65160
2022-05-10 71810 79850 19560 31670 40910 36530 55110 54980 24670 81700 49020 42770 43190 67650 26360 69370 126300 90050 25140 66310 58270 39810 60730 64570 128900 81730 346300 35680 56360 49650 21250 26550 95040 21020 135000 42930 173100 49610 39040 102100 26630 40790 95930 168300 40070 109100 33810 32610 37870 32970 66320 51300 67310 43770 72250 34770 47460 102800 36620 47830 30870 47460 98460 12830 61700 61900 37100 52920 130500 120900 34160 35460 31980 41470 183100 20220 65410 7945 26380 23390 26950 159100 24040 183300 111900 16800 40760 124400 51620 38180 40350 28170 24590 86770 20080 62220 108500 106900 35520 109400 44950 53520 119200 49270 27170 42600 43770 37350 50310 38120 37070 29240 38870 106700 41490 68970 32930 45760 14630 49350 96840 44220 28240 37720 42500 61890 36350 31190 42520 128500 39000 34280 24010 26240 70270 40850 238500 42830 27310 36930 31120 90600 47200 26940 90420 49410 26880 63520 30880 83370 32510 53120 81740 33290 33930 29750 39490 89810 53010 37690 29790 68730 101200 37220 44960 94930 56820 29140 29640 45200 14790 40540 74440 44780 35430 44470 90660 60080 139100 59960 112200 46730 276000 120600 30530 96100 35270 33580 54930 176500 75480 57450 20110 20400 193500 38170 94430 16350 33610 19300 72520 23900 28720 50890 56450 47910 53020 34440 98450 27720 20010 27860 42540 50340 39430 107000 41920 107400 44170 68100 50140 29160 32740 53010 43400 36240 141400 53620 23950 69500 78260 21620 34500 79690 107600 45080 110000 46290 20170 79440 5378 52580 26250 30800 47150 74710 89420 71810 26280 51710 57780 100600 47820 29210 53670 73780 71200 21290 66690 15310 77080 29080 24580 26020 93520 39280 28990 41620 35360 11760 14130 96090 110700 31190 32550 38370 99180 29820 39140 189400 6799 97570 52000 73300 45980 39130 23650 52420 36630 97920 24400 27940 45190 28730 131200 41020 30430 46210 39440 48970 36810 54870 82250 61510 102600 35860 52590 67100 46100 30760 30070 32490 103500 71890 88500 40650 35160 99820 31330 73290 49150 68480 73630 80700 27310 29610 39500 63440 45370 41840 29530 44990 32660 62730 43220 43670 26950 18930 106500 85380 37790 29510 36860 43670 118200 93780 90250 117100 77470 48520 35220 41990 46670 26280 39760 49870 14820 36070 38770 29150 68950 34500 50400 68080 116700 151700 40240 51570 113300 36480 59730 89260 33440 35240 37840 38530 58600 36550 31210 65210

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.