COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-05-17 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-05-17

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-05-17

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252021-12-282022-03-232022-03-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222021-12-282022-03-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242021-12-292022-03-222021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-03-222022-04-062022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-02-062022-02-062022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062022-03-192022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-142022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-202022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-03-212022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-282022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-162022-03-262022-02-062022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-162022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-05-042022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-04-192022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-162022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-03-232022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-05-04
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 1126 1275 1525 804 437 780 1774 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 134 398 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 266 1199 253 17521 1550 3317 165 319 97 205 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 79 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 153 2002 167 611 195 234 273 132 1418 251 1362 119 1222 456 433 192 2422 2091 214 270 562 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7754 684 302 56 62 774 71 3960 513 7900 4326 70 1426 372 1559 1550 131 862 267 3466 481 896 4767 2335 1159 307 2036 1878 312 1747 663 1048 1254 885 1468 1093 1560 891 1505 441 158 1625 976 1274 71 1353 3625 1652 982 152 1007 2291 930 917 560 6120 103 1022 779 105 2871 147 6944 1464 848 1510 117 3360 1261 77 3318 173 120 194 1115 3254 1188 224 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 287 1188 1044 2486 274 131 1158 3872 1474 1689 886 1209 231 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 274 2021 423 185 4514 1732 837 234 803 3519 136 1238 694 9205 172 1963 580 540 462 146 3625 516 696 246 2554 147 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1347 3381 825 68 1495 532 1263 162 4887 167 230 105 1141 1531 659 963 1941 1111 180 3559 220 131 1868 297 835 131 2965 442 1403 274 1790 56 4269 264 210 83 57 2223 3085 535 331 74 2466 197 234 2322 108 1632 1804 1026 60 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 290 142 892 158 145 51 75 4748 5886 184 1365 1073 4438 126 1175 968 632 530 2347 2862 1130 1408 87 1599 147 2982 170 863 1470 162 4031 1059 875 1101 128 1007 129 2510 3022 2379 330 1253 1583 227 196 134 992 1278 3842 3631 293 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 116 2290 3757 94 844 990 249 1394 1055 812 237 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 102 1143 361 250 3811 4283 279 217 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 808 1620 922 2543 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 241 139 796 98 1077 2155 132 129 263
Days since peak 100 100 113 113 113 100 113 141 100 113 113 113 113 113 113 55 56 113 113 113 113 113 113 56 113 56 113 113 113 53 140 55 49 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 56 113 113 113 113 113 113 56 113 56 140 54 56 56 55 113 56 113 57 113 139 56 139 113 113 56 56 56 113 113 113 113 113 100 100 56 41 55 113 55 113 113 113 113 51 113 56 113 113 56 113 139 113 113 139 113 113 113 55 100 100 56 100 113 113 100 113 113 113 100 113 100 56 55 113 113 113 56 113 113 113 113 55 113 100 113 113 139 100 59 113 113 56 113 55 84 113 113 113 54 113 113 64 113 56 55 56 113 113 113 56 113 113 113 113 113 113 56 113 113 100 56 53 113 113 113 113 100 113 148 113 113 113 113 113 54 113 56 56 113 113 56 56 113 113 53 113 113 113 54 113 113 113 56 55 113 113 113 141 113 55 113 113 113 113 113 100 113 113 57 100 139 113 56 113 55 56 57 113 100 113 113 113 113 56 84 56 56 113 56 113 56 113 56 113 56 113 50 113 100 56 62 52 100 113 56 56 62 113 56 55 113 55 113 84 141 55 113 113 113 113 113 113 56 56 113 56 56 54 56 113 113 13 100 113 113 56 113 28 100 56 113 113 113 100 56 113 51 113 56 113 113 56 100 113 113 113 56 113 52 113 113 113 56 113 113 53 54 55 113 100 113 113 52 113 113 113 113 113 113 62 113 113 55 113 113 55 113 113 113 56 113 113 113 113 139 113 113 113 113 113 57 113 55 52 113 113 56 56 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 84 113 113 100 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 113 55 56 113 56 113 113 56 56 13
Last total 71722 79641 19605 31676 40923 36411 55278 55258 24627 81728 49058 42790 43130 67693 26304 69381 126289 89938 25122 66224 58263 39827 60739 64539 129239 81754 346679 35710 56365 49695 21260 26540 95013 21035 134953 42942 173094 49548 39110 102085 26630 40812 96024 168470 40085 109013 33790 32632 37903 32967 66387 51312 67337 43841 72345 34763 47441 102799 36638 47847 30825 47529 98545 12856 61764 61863 37106 52913 130617 121022 34180 35506 31983 41489 184612 20143 65385 7879 26387 23374 26933 159216 24040 183603 111880 16806 40749 124438 51583 38168 40335 28171 24584 86785 20050 62253 108425 106918 35454 109274 44773 53514 119249 50159 27207 42549 43669 37368 50341 38133 37056 29199 38736 106902 41468 68887 32885 45802 14670 49352 96833 44203 28246 37768 42529 61806 36341 31193 42599 128329 39013 34242 24033 26246 70234 40836 239085 42841 27283 36885 31060 90643 47204 26948 90417 49419 26892 63579 30906 83376 32514 53079 81765 33253 33960 29673 39508 89833 52980 37673 29826 68825 101359 37250 44993 94918 56880 29131 29707 45144 14792 40466 74535 44881 35428 44449 90607 60062 139046 60000 112213 46784 276151 120683 30529 96122 35263 33571 55167 176616 75481 57448 20094 20411 193793 38138 94417 16337 33628 19309 72604 23895 28695 51003 56457 48071 53078 34318 98377 27756 20025 27769 42562 50316 39455 107161 41970 107424 44168 68243 50127 29149 32743 53098 43490 36227 140987 53693 23935 69493 78310 21575 34489 79622 107522 45086 110061 46281 20189 79450 5325 52689 26255 30827 47019 74677 89397 71890 26295 51719 57817 100532 47846 29189 53647 73676 71204 21265 66748 15310 77087 29008 24582 26046 93609 39279 28955 41604 35313 11789 14208 96197 110736 31394 32426 38354 99212 29945 39136 189522 6797 97486 51973 73355 45969 39102 23642 52429 36620 97915 24440 27946 45155 28711 130766 41015 30400 46225 39431 48911 36802 54857 82324 61420 102638 35855 52568 67161 46061 30761 30010 32398 103639 71905 88509 40719 35191 99865 31349 73346 49127 68494 73697 80709 27321 29602 39468 63423 45340 41846 29461 44906 32638 62651 43239 43666 26959 18941 106584 85446 37774 29540 36859 43724 118180 93782 90224 117115 77482 48555 35205 41968 46673 26306 39780 49857 14816 36011 38781 29152 68869 34503 50328 68349 116776 151809 40326 51582 113272 36446 59729 89224 33445 35286 37856 38494 58599 36550 31162 65589
Last daily increment 40 62 9 13 15 11 27 46 13 32 16 15 18 38 12 14 39 30 10 18 23 15 21 25 65 21 81 10 4 15 1 10 28 5 31 18 33 16 17 31 6 2 36 54 14 37 14 16 18 10 21 2 24 20 40 12 13 13 10 7 8 18 37 1 18 18 10 23 55 51 18 13 15 12 129 12 24 6 2 7 8 61 9 76 31 9 13 44 13 23 10 11 3 27 7 12 17 41 13 33 24 15 45 15 14 11 30 19 25 11 12 11 15 49 14 28 15 23 6 17 27 15 5 14 16 31 20 13 14 73 4 12 7 7 13 9 108 13 5 10 11 29 13 3 46 11 7 25 11 24 12 18 29 11 11 10 15 39 17 19 9 59 33 11 15 29 26 5 12 19 0 11 32 17 13 14 34 22 30 24 52 11 79 40 6 29 15 12 32 37 20 19 6 16 71 15 42 6 16 1 37 11 16 21 6 39 19 16 33 7 1 23 3 15 17 40 26 37 1 23 18 10 9 18 23 18 38 14 4 29 32 4 10 22 42 11 31 15 8 12 2 21 3 12 31 30 28 45 1 12 20 21 18 2 17 41 5 8 23 6 18 8 2 11 34 21 5 14 10 3 7 35 26 14 13 8 40 10 11 57 4 36 7 22 17 29 10 23 13 32 12 6 17 7 52 21 8 18 11 22 9 19 37 18 39 12 21 23 16 12 6 17 38 25 30 17 12 38 10 27 15 2 34 28 9 11 15 17 21 23 7 10 10 10 23 14 2 3 44 33 8 13 4 21 30 22 23 43 30 24 18 20 7 8 16 22 5 20 12 20 27 12 15 26 30 57 13 17 38 14 18 20 14 12 4 9 42 16 17 29
Last week 249 294 65 70 79 104 139 192 72 144 120 88 79 159 47 92 238 120 55 98 112 83 118 116 314 129 509 82 58 95 9 45 151 35 277 113 260 88 96 185 50 18 197 308 105 211 63 80 78 49 128 15 135 126 213 60 95 52 71 16 37 99 234 11 103 107 78 122 342 272 71 87 87 83 1656 44 148 30 16 46 40 399 59 438 182 39 68 250 93 77 74 52 13 157 38 83 124 285 72 191 137 110 220 615 91 72 138 92 103 108 111 55 95 277 96 150 62 115 48 77 148 82 50 86 102 180 92 51 64 386 13 59 54 54 144 78 1092 73 57 54 57 151 95 11 184 89 49 147 53 156 69 125 176 61 72 42 86 171 126 70 73 317 258 66 147 161 162 44 89 73 5 61 172 108 66 92 173 119 223 97 210 117 468 197 54 196 75 68 172 292 114 116 35 64 341 63 168 33 83 7 149 57 64 127 67 132 118 90 189 68 8 112 17 130 75 218 110 187 13 143 137 66 60 130 96 114 268 125 63 142 180 34 65 133 244 118 179 111 45 144 18 135 9 52 188 131 162 208 13 74 119 124 98 56 103 186 20 29 153 30 120 53 35 68 192 93 39 87 66 31 37 166 157 63 68 70 198 69 75 428 42 230 75 132 111 122 60 146 59 193 77 54 86 77 302 97 57 112 59 134 58 128 182 109 199 73 108 129 103 67 36 94 201 155 175 123 77 212 64 144 85 30 163 125 42 74 84 94 107 95 41 92 62 94 92 74 9 39 213 155 70 79 15 120 196 141 143 233 152 127 80 88 95 47 90 116 30 83 76 83 201 65 104 169 188 340 114 110 227 70 146 116 74 70 19 60 165 72 61 167
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-202022-01-242021-07-202022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-06-062022-01-242021-10-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-10-192022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-12-282021-07-152021-12-292021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-10-18 --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012022-01-242022-02-062021-12-282021-07-142022-01-242021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-132022-01-24 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2022-01-242021-08-242021-06-292022-01-242021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-15 --2022-01-24 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132022-01-242021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-062021-12-282021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-122022-01-242021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-12-282021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-172021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-152021-10-142021-09-022022-01-242022-01-242021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-09-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-162022-01-242022-01-242021-07-112021-07-162022-01-242021-07-29 -- --2022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-122021-09-15 --2022-01-242021-07-112022-01-242022-01-242021-12-27 --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 --2022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242021-10-182022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-08-032022-01-242021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-06-29 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-12-30 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192022-01-242021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-09-012021-08-17 --2022-01-242021-07-162022-01-24 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-152022-01-24 -- --2022-01-242021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-10-182021-07-152022-01-24 --2021-08-172022-01-242021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-172021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-12-28 --2021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 3477 4581 276 70 139 152 144 287 2285 379 3307 943 127 2250 126 962 4696 293 107 478 103 176 68 508 218 621 4 258 94 72 1302 74 2935 249 2895 1143 2214 1302 1131 115 528 101 3005 67 170 1033 1466 3801 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 1939 121 403 114 995 708 607 376 551 101 5019 122 140 1634 86 64 202 400 4687 137 188 4677 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 3182 1563 61 417 105 58 1189 128 185 88 171 421 482 67 56 884 274 1519 941 95 63 1137 163 323 229 2105 817 2104 152 61 1498 65 146 54 151 1707 82 90 203 3914 1327 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 3609 6117 3336 301 117 11029 6320 51 213 1176 99 3848 120 41 47 10177 1515 169 40 164 72 503 101 274 115 49 189 31 184 1329 384 1519 5335 518 164 123 94 256 1060 1294 1824 525 291 2931 77 1179 3811 87 5264 158 839 255 1562 291 1808 118 2613 2589 315 2199 4529 297 1065 114 289 268 776 140 67 213 75 73 49 4307 1311 1297 1206 259 344 253 951 78 123 857 96 8405 3240 277 202 118 768 1218 345 587 763 470 128 68 77 1609 106 1377 303 200 152 4073 70 131 3012 1783 1077 91 243 339 3812 201 428 57 145 101 890 329 219 968 143 2555 116 92 150 1551 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 422 79 5038 4407 157 313 2987 1563 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 4157 1188 63 397 117 1437 1060 2087
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 59 18 51 163 103 28 53 51 54 99 87 179 80 406 33 47 31 21 45 124 39 190 42 75 22 28 83 100 2 100 38 34 55 31 43 97 43 97 122 31 99 22 56 21 143 25 46 94 98 164 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 107 20 29 25 29 227 190 143 19 39 163 49 43 40 41 32 63 142 85 56 26 150 58 49 49 57 36 30 35 136 49 25 19 38 23 45 44 80 41 67 199 36 29 19 22 75 49 199 21 30 49 76 22 57 45 39 89 75 27 85 32 32 18 70 81 41 37 59 115 39 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 100 95 49 74 44 269 77 20 66 41 43 66 51 17 14 129 31 77 11 75 30 58 36 58 32 24 22 2 75 42 120 35 103 32 54 61 39 68 52 157 44 56 115 99 22 32 136 42 108 50 15 87 96 29 9 19 148 106 22 86 84 49 38 51 68 125 15 61 17 69 20 21 17 66 54 55 59 20 21 104 22 28 40 35 33 182 149 91 64 40 28 46 58 48 35 149 59 28 35 30 42 33 55 94 56 161 34 49 48 60 33 38 118 78 78 62 96 24 64 24 56 103 85 22 34 70 35 37 63 74 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 40 36 79 68 70 94 69 88 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 58 59 31 28 52 36 37 39

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-18 to 2022-05-24

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-05-17 71722 79641 19605 31676 40923 36411 55278 55258 24627 81728 49058 42790 43130 67693 26304 69381 126289 89938 25122 66224 58263 39827 60739 64539 129239 81754 346679 35710 56365 49695 21260 26540 95013 21035 134953 42942 173094 49548 39110 102085 26630 40812 96024 168470 40085 109013 33790 32632 37903 32967 66387 51312 67337 43841 72345 34763 47441 102799 36638 47847 30825 47529 98545 12856 61764 61863 37106 52913 130617 121022 34180 35506 31983 41489 184612 20143 65385 7879 26387 23374 26933 159216 24040 183603 111880 16806 40749 124438 51583 38168 40335 28171 24584 86785 20050 62253 108425 106918 35454 109274 44773 53514 119249 50159 27207 42549 43669 37368 50341 38133 37056 29199 38736 106902 41468 68887 32885 45802 14670 49352 96833 44203 28246 37768 42529 61806 36341 31193 42599 128329 39013 34242 24033 26246 70234 40836 239085 42841 27283 36885 31060 90643 47204 26948 90417 49419 26892 63579 30906 83376 32514 53079 81765 33253 33960 29673 39508 89833 52980 37673 29826 68825 101359 37250 44993 94918 56880 29131 29707 45144 40466 74535 44881 35428 44449 90607 60062 139046 60000 112213 46784 276151 120683 30529 96122 35263 33571 55167 176616 75481 57448 20094 20411 193793 38138 94417 16337 33628 19309 72604 23895 28695 51003 56457 48071 53078 34318 98377 27756 20025 27769 42562 50316 39455 107161 41970 107424 44168 68243 50127 29149 32743 53098 43490 36227 140987 53693 23935 69493 78310 21575 34489 79622 107522 45086 110061 46281 20189 79450 5325 52689 26255 30827 47019 74677 89397 71890 26295 51719 57817 100532 47846 29189 53647 73676 71204 21265 66748 15310 77087 29008 24582 26046 93609 39279 28955 41604 35313 11789 14208 96197 110736 31394 32426 38354 99212 29945 39136 189522 6797 97486 51973 73355 45969 39102 23642 52429 36620 97915 24440 27946 45155 28711 130766 41015 30400 46225 39431 48911 36802 54857 82324 61420 102638 35855 52568 67161 46061 30761 30010 32398 103639 71905 88509 40719 35191 99865 31349 73346 49127 68494 73697 80709 27321 29602 39468 63423 45340 41846 29461 44906 32638 62651 43239 43666 26959 18941 106584 85446 37774 29540 36859 43724 118180 93782 90224 117115 77482 48555 35205 41968 46673 26306 39780 49857 14816 36011 38781 29152 68869 34503 50328 68349 116776 151809 40326 51582 113272 36446 59729 89224 33445 35286 37856 38494 58599 36550 31162 65589
2022-05-18 71790 79710 19620 31700 40940 36450 55310 55290 24660 81760 49080 42810 43150 67730 26330 69410 126400 89960 25140 66240 58290 39850 60770 64570 129300 81820 346800 35730 56390 49710 21260 26550 95040 21050 135000 42970 173200 49570 39130 102100 26650 40820 96080 168600 40110 109100 33800 32650 37920 32980 66420 51320 67370 43900 72380 34780 47470 102800 36650 47860 30840 47550 98600 12860 61790 61900 37130 52940 130700 121100 34200 35530 32000 41510 184700 20160 65420 7897 26400 23390 26940 159300 24050 183700 111900 16820 40770 124500 51610 38190 40370 28180 24590 86830 20060 62270 108500 107000 35470 109300 44830 53570 119300 50200 27220 42580 43690 37390 50390 38160 37110 29210 38760 107000 41490 68920 32890 45860 14680 49390 96890 44240 28270 37790 42560 61870 36370 31230 42610 128500 39020 34260 24050 26260 70260 40850 239400 42850 27290 36910 31070 90720 47240 26960 90460 49440 26910 63620 30920 83430 32530 53100 81800 33270 33970 29690 39530 89870 53010 37690 29840 68890 101400 37270 45020 94960 56910 29140 29710 45160 40510 74580 44910 35450 44470 90650 60110 139100 60030 112300 46810 276200 120700 30550 96190 35280 33590 55200 176700 75520 57480 20110 20420 193900 38160 94460 16340 33650 19310 72650 23920 28710 51030 56470 48100 53100 34350 98430 27770 20030 27790 42570 50380 39480 107200 41990 107500 44180 68270 50170 29160 32750 53130 43520 36240 141100 53720 23950 69530 78350 21590 34510 79650 107600 45110 110100 46300 20200 79480 5331 52720 26260 30840 47060 74720 89440 71930 26300 51730 57870 100600 47870 29210 53670 73760 71210 21270 66780 15320 77120 29020 24590 26060 93640 39300 28970 41640 35330 11800 14220 96240 110800 31410 32460 38380 99260 29960 39150 189600 6808 97540 51990 73390 45990 39110 23650 52480 36640 97960 24450 27960 45180 28730 130900 41040 30410 46250 39450 48940 36820 54890 82360 61450 102700 35870 52590 67190 46080 30780 30020 32440 103700 71950 88560 40740 35210 99900 31370 73380 49150 68500 73730 80740 27330 29620 39490 63450 45360 41860 29470 44930 32650 62680 43280 43680 26960 18950 106700 85490 37820 29570 36860 43750 118200 93830 90280 117200 77500 48580 35220 41990 46700 26320 39790 49890 14820 36040 38800 29180 68940 34520 50360 68400 116800 151900 40340 51610 113300 36460 59760 89260 33460 35330 37860 38510 58630 36570 31170 65620
2022-05-19 71890 79780 19630 31740 40950 36480 55340 55310 24680 81790 49110 42840 43170 67780 26360 69450 126500 89990 25150 66270 58350 39890 60820 64620 129300 81870 346900 35760 56410 49730 21270 26580 95100 21060 135200 43000 173300 49590 39170 102200 26670 40830 96120 168700 40140 109100 33810 32670 37970 33010 66460 51330 67410 43940 72420 34800 47520 102800 36680 47860 30870 47570 98700 12860 61850 61960 37160 52970 130800 121200 34230 35560 32020 41540 184900 20180 65480 7906 26400 23410 26970 159400 24070 183800 112000 16830 40790 124600 51660 38220 40400 28210 24600 86910 20080 62280 108500 107100 35500 109400 44870 53620 119400 50340 27250 42620 43730 37420 50420 38190 37150 29240 38790 107000 41530 68980 32910 45900 14700 49420 96940 44270 28280 37820 42600 61910 36410 31250 42630 128600 39020 34290 24070 26290 70300 40890 239900 42870 27300 36940 31090 90780 47270 26960 90510 49480 26950 63660 30950 83470 32560 53140 81870 33290 33990 29720 39570 89930 53070 37720 29850 68960 101500 37300 45080 95010 56950 29160 29720 45190 40550 74610 44940 35480 44520 90710 60150 139200 60050 112300 46840 276400 120800 30570 96260 35320 33630 55220 176800 75580 57530 20120 20440 194000 38190 94540 16350 33680 19320 72700 23940 28740 51070 56500 48130 53130 34390 98500 27790 20030 27810 42570 50420 39530 107300 42030 107500 44190 68300 50220 29180 32770 53170 43530 36250 141200 53790 23970 69600 78410 21600 34550 79690 107700 45140 110200 46330 20210 79520 5339 52760 26270 30860 47100 74770 89500 71990 26300 51760 57900 100600 47900 29230 53700 73820 71220 21290 66830 15330 77160 29030 24620 26090 93690 39330 29000 41670 35370 11810 14220 96300 110800 31430 32480 38410 99370 29980 39190 189800 6820 97630 52030 73450 46010 39140 23670 52550 36660 98020 24470 27980 45220 28780 131000 41090 30420 46290 39490 48980 36840 54930 82420 61500 102800 35900 52640 67240 46110 30810 30030 32470 103700 72020 88600 40760 35250 100000 31400 73430 49190 68510 73780 80780 27360 29640 39520 63510 45390 41900 29490 44970 32680 62720 43310 43720 26970 18980 106700 85570 37860 29590 36870 43780 118300 93910 90330 117200 77530 48630 35250 42030 46730 26340 39820 49930 14830 36070 38830 29220 69000 34540 50390 68430 116900 152000 40360 51650 113400 36500 59830 89310 33480 35360 37870 38550 58680 36620 31190 65660
2022-05-20 71960 79840 19650 31770 40970 36510 55380 55330 24700 81830 49140 42870 43200 67840 26380 69480 126600 90020 25170 66300 58400 39920 60860 64670 129400 81910 347100 35780 56440 49760 21270 26610 95140 21080 135300 43040 173300 49620 39200 102200 26680 40830 96150 168800 40180 109200 33820 32680 38010 33030 66500 51330 67440 43980 72450 34820 47560 102900 36710 47870 30890 47590 98780 12860 61900 62010 37180 53000 130900 121300 34250 35600 32050 41560 185000 20200 65540 7913 26410 23430 26990 159500 24090 184000 112100 16840 40810 124700 51700 38250 40420 28230 24600 86980 20100 62300 108600 107200 35530 109500 44910 53650 119500 50370 27270 42660 43770 37450 50450 38220 37180 29270 38810 107100 41560 69030 32920 45940 14720 49450 96980 44290 28300 37860 42640 61960 36440 31270 42640 128700 39020 34320 24100 26320 70330 40920 240100 42890 27320 36970 31110 90830 47300 26960 90560 49510 26980 63700 30980 83510 32580 53180 81930 33310 34010 29740 39610 89980 53110 37750 29870 69020 101600 37320 45120 95060 57000 29180 29740 45220 40570 74630 44970 35510 44570 90770 60190 139200 60080 112400 46870 276600 120900 30590 96310 35360 33660 55250 177000 75630 57570 20140 20450 194100 38210 94610 16360 33710 19320 72740 23960 28760 51110 56530 48160 53160 34420 98560 27810 20040 27840 42580 50470 39570 107400 42060 107500 44200 68320 50250 29210 32790 53210 43550 36270 141300 53840 23990 69670 78460 21620 34590 79730 107800 45180 110300 46360 20220 79560 5346 52800 26270 30870 47150 74810 89570 72040 26300 51780 57940 100700 47920 29250 53730 73860 71230 21310 66880 15350 77200 29040 24640 26110 93730 39360 29020 41700 35400 11820 14230 96350 110900 31440 32510 38450 99460 29990 39210 190000 6832 97710 52070 73500 46040 39160 23680 52610 36690 98090 24490 28000 45250 28820 131100 41130 30430 46320 39510 49010 36870 54970 82470 61540 102800 35920 52690 67290 46140 30830 30050 32500 103800 72070 88640 40780 35280 100100 31420 73480 49220 68520 73830 80830 27380 29660 39540 63560 45420 41930 29510 45010 32710 62750 43330 43740 26980 18990 106800 85630 37880 29610 36880 43810 118300 93980 90380 117300 77560 48670 35270 42070 46760 26360 39840 49960 14840 36080 38860 29250 69050 34570 50420 68460 117000 152200 40380 51690 113500 36530 59880 89350 33510 35380 37870 38580 58720 36660 31210 65700
2022-05-21 72030 79910 19660 31800 40990 36530 55410 55360 24710 81870 49170 42900 43220 67890 26400 69520 126700 90050 25190 66320 58440 39950 60910 64710 129400 81950 347200 35800 56460 49780 21270 26630 95190 21090 135400 43070 173400 49650 39220 102300 26700 40840 96170 169000 40210 109300 33840 32700 38040 33040 66540 51340 67480 44010 72470 34840 47600 102900 36740 47870 30920 47610 98870 12870 61940 62060 37210 53040 131000 121400 34280 35630 32070 41590 185000 20220 65590 7919 26410 23450 27000 159500 24110 184100 112100 16850 40840 124700 51740 38270 40450 28250 24600 87040 20110 62310 108700 107300 35560 109500 44930 53670 119500 50370 27300 42700 43800 37480 50480 38250 37210 29290 38830 107100 41590 69080 32940 45970 14730 49480 97020 44310 28320 37890 42680 61980 36480 31290 42660 128900 39030 34350 24120 26340 70370 40950 240200 42910 27330 36990 31120 90890 47320 26960 90620 49550 27000 63730 31000 83550 32600 53220 81980 33330 34030 29760 39640 90040 53160 37770 29890 69090 101600 37350 45170 95110 57040 29190 29770 45250 40600 74650 44990 35530 44610 90820 60220 139300 60100 112400 46890 276700 120900 30610 96360 35380 33680 55270 177100 75680 57620 20150 20470 194200 38230 94670 16360 33740 19320 72780 23980 28780 51140 56560 48190 53190 34430 98630 27820 20040 27860 42590 50510 39600 107400 42090 107600 44210 68350 50290 29230 32810 53250 43550 36290 141400 53890 24010 69720 78510 21630 34610 79770 107800 45210 110300 46390 20240 79590 5353 52840 26280 30890 47190 74840 89630 72100 26300 51800 57980 100800 47950 29280 53760 73910 71230 21320 66930 15360 77240 29060 24660 26130 93780 39390 29040 41720 35430 11830 14240 96410 111000 31460 32530 38470 99530 30010 39240 190200 6843 97780 52100 73550 46070 39180 23700 52670 36710 98150 24510 28020 45280 28850 131200 41170 30440 46360 39540 49050 36890 55010 82530 61580 102900 35950 52730 67330 46170 30850 30060 32530 103900 72130 88670 40800 35310 100200 31450 73530 49250 68520 73870 80870 27400 29680 39570 63610 45450 41960 29520 45050 32730 62790 43350 43770 26980 19010 106800 85690 37920 29630 36880 43840 118400 94040 90420 117400 77590 48710 35300 42110 46790 26370 39860 50000 14840 36100 38880 29280 69100 34590 50440 68490 117000 152300 40400 51730 113600 36560 59940 89400 33530 35410 37870 38610 58770 36690 31230 65740
2022-05-22 72100 79980 19680 31830 41010 36560 55440 55390 24730 81910 49210 42920 43250 67940 26420 69560 126700 90090 25210 66360 58490 39980 60950 64760 129400 82000 347300 35830 56480 49800 21280 26650 95230 21100 135500 43110 173500 49670 39250 102400 26720 40840 96210 169100 40250 109300 33850 32720 38070 33060 66570 51350 67520 44050 72520 34860 47650 102900 36760 47870 30940 47630 98950 12870 61980 62110 37240 53070 131000 121400 34310 35660 32100 41610 185100 20240 65640 7925 26410 23470 27020 159600 24130 184200 112200 16860 40860 124800 51780 38300 40470 28270 24610 87100 20130 62320 108700 107400 35590 109600 44980 53700 119600 50380 27320 42730 43840 37520 50520 38280 37230 29310 38860 107200 41620 69140 32960 46010 14750 49510 97060 44340 28340 37920 42720 62010 36510 31310 42670 129000 39030 34380 24140 26360 70410 40980 240300 42930 27350 37020 31140 90950 47360 26970 90670 49580 27030 63770 31020 83600 32620 53250 82040 33350 34050 29780 39670 90090 53210 37800 29900 69150 101700 37370 45210 95170 57080 29200 29790 45290 40630 74680 45020 35560 44650 90870 60270 139400 60130 112500 46920 276900 121000 30640 96430 35410 33710 55300 177200 75720 57660 20160 20490 194300 38260 94740 16370 33760 19320 72830 23990 28810 51180 56580 48210 53210 34450 98690 27840 20040 27880 42590 50550 39640 107500 42120 107600 44210 68370 50320 29250 32830 53290 43570 36310 141400 53930 24020 69780 78560 21640 34640 79820 107900 45250 110400 46420 20250 79630 5360 52880 26280 30900 47230 74880 89690 72150 26310 51820 58020 100800 47980 29300 53800 73930 71240 21330 66980 15370 77280 29070 24670 26160 93830 39420 29060 41750 35460 11840 14250 96460 111000 31480 32550 38500 99610 30030 39270 190300 6853 97860 52130 73600 46100 39230 23710 52730 36740 98210 24530 28040 45320 28880 131300 41210 30460 46400 39570 49090 36910 55040 82580 61620 102900 35970 52770 67370 46200 30870 30080 32560 103900 72180 88720 40820 35340 100200 31480 73580 49290 68530 73930 80910 27420 29700 39600 63650 45480 41990 29540 45080 32760 62820 43380 43800 26990 19030 106900 85750 37950 29640 36880 43880 118400 94110 90470 117500 77620 48740 35320 42140 46830 26390 39890 50040 14850 36120 38910 29310 69160 34620 50480 68520 117100 152400 40430 51770 113600 36590 59990 89440 33550 35430 37880 38640 58810 36720 31240 65780
2022-05-23 72170 80050 19690 31850 41030 36590 55460 55420 24750 81960 49240 42950 43280 67990 26440 69590 126800 90120 25220 66390 58530 40010 60990 64800 129500 82050 347400 35850 56500 49820 21280 26670 95270 21120 135600 43140 173500 49700 39270 102400 26730 40850 96250 169200 40280 109400 33870 32740 38100 33070 66610 51350 67550 44090 72550 34880 47680 102900 36780 47870 30960 47640 99030 12870 62020 62160 37270 53110 131100 121500 34330 35690 32120 41640 185300 20250 65690 7931 26420 23490 27040 159700 24150 184400 112300 16870 40890 124900 51820 38320 40490 28290 24610 87160 20140 62340 108800 107500 35610 109600 45020 53730 119700 50450 27350 42770 43870 37550 50560 38310 37270 29330 38880 107300 41650 69190 32980 46040 14760 49540 97130 44370 28350 37940 42750 62050 36540 31340 42680 129100 39030 34410 24160 26380 70440 41000 240600 42950 27360 37040 31160 91010 47400 26970 90730 49610 27050 63820 31040 83660 32640 53290 82090 33370 34070 29800 39700 90150 53250 37820 29920 69240 101800 37400 45260 95220 57130 29210 29810 45320 40660 74710 45050 35580 44680 90930 60300 139500 60150 112600 46950 277000 121000 30660 96490 35440 33730 55330 177200 75760 57700 20170 20500 194400 38280 94800 16380 33790 19320 72880 24020 28830 51220 56610 48240 53240 34480 98760 27850 20040 27910 42590 50600 39670 107600 42150 107600 44220 68390 50370 29270 32840 53330 43590 36340 141500 53980 24030 69840 78610 21660 34670 79860 108000 45280 110400 46440 20260 79660 5367 52920 26280 30910 47270 74920 89750 72200 26310 51840 58060 100900 48010 29320 53830 73970 71240 21340 67030 15380 77320 29090 24680 26180 93880 39450 29080 41780 35490 11850 14260 96510 111100 31500 32580 38530 99670 30050 39300 190400 6864 97940 52160 73640 46130 39260 23730 52780 36760 98270 24550 28060 45350 28910 131400 41240 30480 46440 39590 49120 36930 55080 82630 61660 103000 36000 52810 67410 46230 30890 30090 32590 104000 72230 88760 40840 35370 100300 31500 73630 49320 68530 73980 80950 27430 29720 39630 63690 45510 42020 29560 45120 32780 62860 43410 43830 26990 19040 107000 85810 37980 29670 36890 43920 118500 94170 90530 117500 77660 48780 35350 42180 46860 26410 39910 50080 14860 36140 38930 29340 69220 34640 50520 68550 117200 152500 40450 51810 113700 36620 60040 89490 33570 35460 37880 38670 58850 36750 31260 65830
2022-05-24 72230 80120 19710 31880 41050 36620 55490 55440 24780 82000 49280 42980 43310 68040 26460 69620 126900 90150 25240 66420 58570 40040 61030 64850 129500 82100 347500 35870 56520 49840 21280 26690 95320 21130 135700 43180 173600 49730 39290 102500 26750 40850 96280 169300 40310 109500 33880 32760 38130 33090 66650 51350 67590 44130 72590 34900 47720 102900 36810 47880 30970 47660 99110 12870 62060 62200 37300 53150 131200 121600 34350 35720 32150 41660 185400 20270 65740 7937 26420 23500 27050 159700 24170 184500 112300 16880 40920 125000 51850 38350 40520 28310 24610 87220 20150 62350 108800 107600 35640 109700 45060 53760 119800 50490 27370 42810 43900 37580 50600 38340 37300 29350 38910 107300 41680 69250 33000 46080 14770 49580 97180 44400 28370 37970 42790 62090 36580 31360 42690 129200 39030 34430 24180 26400 70480 41030 240800 42980 27380 37060 31180 91070 47430 26970 90790 49640 27070 63860 31060 83710 32670 53330 82150 33400 34090 29820 39730 90200 53300 37850 29940 69330 101900 37420 45300 95280 57170 29220 29840 45350 40680 74750 45090 35610 44720 90980 60350 139500 60170 112700 46980 277100 121100 30680 96550 35470 33750 55350 177300 75800 57740 20190 20520 194400 38300 94860 16390 33820 19330 72940 24040 28850 51260 56640 48260 53270 34510 98830 27870 20040 27930 42600 50640 39700 107600 42180 107700 44220 68410 50420 29290 32860 53360 43610 36360 141600 54020 24050 69890 78660 21670 34700 79910 108100 45320 110500 46470 20270 79690 5374 52960 26280 30920 47310 74970 89810 72260 26310 51860 58100 100900 48030 29340 53870 74040 71250 21360 67080 15390 77350 29100 24700 26200 93930 39480 29100 41810 35510 11860 14270 96560 111100 31520 32610 38560 99740 30070 39320 190600 6874 98020 52180 73680 46170 39300 23740 52840 36780 98330 24570 28080 45380 28940 131500 41280 30490 46470 39610 49160 36960 55110 82680 61700 103100 36020 52850 67450 46270 30910 30110 32620 104000 72280 88810 40860 35400 100400 31520 73680 49350 68530 74030 80980 27450 29740 39670 63730 45530 42050 29580 45150 32800 62890 43450 43860 26990 19060 107000 85860 38000 29690 36890 43950 118600 94220 90580 117600 77690 48820 35370 42210 46900 26430 39940 50120 14870 36170 38950 29370 69270 34670 50560 68580 117200 152700 40480 51840 113800 36650 60090 89530 33590 35490 37880 38700 58900 36780 31280 65870

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-18 to 2022-05-24

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-05-17 71722 79641 19605 31676 40923 36411 55278 55258 24627 81728 49058 42790 43130 67693 26304 69381 126289 89938 25122 66224 58263 39827 60739 64539 129239 81754 346679 35710 56365 49695 21260 26540 95013 21035 134953 42942 173094 49548 39110 102085 26630 40812 96024 168470 40085 109013 33790 32632 37903 32967 66387 51312 67337 43841 72345 34763 47441 102799 36638 47847 30825 47529 98545 12856 61764 61863 37106 52913 130617 121022 34180 35506 31983 41489 184612 20143 65385 7879 26387 23374 26933 159216 24040 183603 111880 16806 40749 124438 51583 38168 40335 28171 24584 86785 20050 62253 108425 106918 35454 109274 44773 53514 119249 50159 27207 42549 43669 37368 50341 38133 37056 29199 38736 106902 41468 68887 32885 45802 14670 49352 96833 44203 28246 37768 42529 61806 36341 31193 42599 128329 39013 34242 24033 26246 70234 40836 239085 42841 27283 36885 31060 90643 47204 26948 90417 49419 26892 63579 30906 83376 32514 53079 81765 33253 33960 29673 39508 89833 52980 37673 29826 68825 101359 37250 44993 94918 56880 29131 29707 45144 40466 74535 44881 35428 44449 90607 60062 139046 60000 112213 46784 276151 120683 30529 96122 35263 33571 55167 176616 75481 57448 20094 20411 193793 38138 94417 16337 33628 19309 72604 23895 28695 51003 56457 48071 53078 34318 98377 27756 20025 27769 42562 50316 39455 107161 41970 107424 44168 68243 50127 29149 32743 53098 43490 36227 140987 53693 23935 69493 78310 21575 34489 79622 107522 45086 110061 46281 20189 79450 5325 52689 26255 30827 47019 74677 89397 71890 26295 51719 57817 100532 47846 29189 53647 73676 71204 21265 66748 15310 77087 29008 24582 26046 93609 39279 28955 41604 35313 11789 14208 96197 110736 31394 32426 38354 99212 29945 39136 189522 6797 97486 51973 73355 45969 39102 23642 52429 36620 97915 24440 27946 45155 28711 130766 41015 30400 46225 39431 48911 36802 54857 82324 61420 102638 35855 52568 67161 46061 30761 30010 32398 103639 71905 88509 40719 35191 99865 31349 73346 49127 68494 73697 80709 27321 29602 39468 63423 45340 41846 29461 44906 32638 62651 43239 43666 26959 18941 106584 85446 37774 29540 36859 43724 118180 93782 90224 117115 77482 48555 35205 41968 46673 26306 39780 49857 14816 36011 38781 29152 68869 34503 50328 68349 116776 151809 40326 51582 113272 36446 59729 89224 33445 35286 37856 38494 58599 36550 31162 65589
2022-05-18 71790 79710 19620 31690 40940 36440 55310 55290 24650 81760 49080 42810 43150 67730 26320 69410 126400 89970 25130 66250 58290 39850 60770 64570 129300 81790 346800 35730 56380 49720 21260 26550 95050 21050 135000 42970 173200 49570 39130 102100 26650 40820 96070 168500 40110 109100 33800 32650 37930 32980 66420 51320 67360 43870 72390 34780 47470 102800 36660 47850 30840 47550 98610 12860 61790 61890 37120 52940 130700 121100 34200 35530 32000 41510 184700 20160 65430 7886 26390 23390 26950 159300 24050 183700 111900 16810 40770 124500 51610 38190 40350 28180 24590 86830 20060 62260 108500 107000 35470 109300 44810 53540 119300 50180 27230 42570 43700 37390 50370 38150 37080 29210 38750 107000 41490 68920 32900 45830 14680 49370 96880 44230 28260 37790 42550 61850 36360 31210 42610 128400 39020 34260 24050 26260 70260 40850 239200 42860 27300 36900 31070 90680 47230 26950 90470 49440 26910 63610 30920 83420 32530 53110 81810 33270 33980 29690 39530 89870 53010 37690 29840 68910 101400 37270 45030 94960 56910 29140 29720 45160 40490 74570 44900 35450 44470 90650 60090 139100 60030 112300 46810 276300 120700 30540 96170 35280 33590 55200 176700 75520 57480 20110 20430 193900 38150 94460 16340 33650 19310 72640 23910 28710 51030 56470 48100 53100 34340 98420 27770 20030 27810 42570 50350 39480 107200 42000 107500 44170 68270 50170 29160 32760 53120 43510 36250 141000 53720 23950 69530 78350 21590 34510 79660 107600 45110 110100 46300 20200 79470 5330 52720 26260 30840 47060 74710 89430 71930 26300 51730 57850 100600 47870 29200 53670 73730 71210 21270 66780 15320 77110 29020 24590 26060 93640 39300 28970 41630 35330 11800 14220 96230 110800 31410 32450 38370 99260 29960 39150 189600 6807 97540 51990 73390 45990 39130 23660 52460 36640 97970 24460 27960 45180 28730 130800 41050 30410 46250 39440 48940 36820 54880 82370 61450 102700 35870 52590 67190 46080 30780 30020 32420 103700 71940 88550 40740 35210 99900 31370 73380 49150 68500 73740 80740 27330 29620 39490 63460 45370 41870 29470 44930 32650 62690 43260 43680 26960 18950 106600 85480 37790 29560 36860 43750 118200 93810 90260 117200 77510 48580 35230 42000 46700 26320 39800 49880 14820 36030 38800 29170 68920 34520 50360 68380 116800 151900 40350 51610 113300 36470 59760 89260 33460 35310 37860 38510 58640 36560 31180 65630
2022-05-19 71850 79770 19630 31710 40960 36470 55330 55320 24670 81790 49120 42830 43170 67770 26330 69440 126400 90010 25150 66280 58340 39880 60800 64610 129300 81840 347000 35750 56400 49740 21260 26570 95100 21060 135100 43000 173200 49590 39160 102200 26660 40820 96130 168600 40140 109100 33820 32670 37950 32990 66450 51320 67400 43900 72430 34800 47500 102800 36680 47860 30860 47560 98680 12860 61820 61930 37150 52980 130800 121200 34230 35560 32020 41530 185100 20170 65480 7890 26390 23400 26960 159400 24070 183800 112000 16820 40790 124600 51630 38210 40380 28200 24590 86890 20070 62270 108500 107100 35500 109400 44840 53580 119400 50340 27250 42590 43730 37410 50400 38180 37110 29230 38780 107000 41520 68960 32920 45870 14700 49390 96920 44250 28270 37810 42580 61890 36390 31230 42620 128500 39020 34290 24070 26280 70300 40880 239700 42880 27320 36920 31090 90720 47260 26950 90510 49470 26930 63650 30950 83460 32550 53140 81860 33290 33990 29710 39560 89920 53050 37710 29850 68980 101500 37290 45070 95010 56960 29150 29730 45190 40510 74610 44920 35470 44510 90700 60120 139200 60060 112300 46830 276400 120800 30560 96220 35310 33610 55220 176800 75560 57520 20120 20440 194000 38170 94510 16350 33670 19310 72670 23920 28730 51060 56480 48130 53130 34360 98470 27790 20030 27850 42570 50390 39510 107300 42030 107500 44180 68290 50210 29180 32780 53150 43530 36280 141100 53760 23960 69580 78400 21600 34530 79690 107600 45140 110200 46330 20210 79500 5335 52750 26260 30850 47090 74770 89480 71990 26300 51760 57880 100600 47890 29220 53700 73790 71220 21280 66820 15330 77140 29030 24600 26090 93690 39320 28990 41650 35350 11810 14230 96280 110800 31440 32470 38390 99320 29980 39180 189700 6817 97610 52020 73440 46020 39170 23670 52510 36660 98030 24470 27980 45210 28750 130900 41080 30430 46270 39470 48960 36840 54910 82420 61490 102700 35900 52630 67230 46110 30800 30040 32440 103700 71980 88600 40770 35240 100000 31390 73420 49190 68510 73780 80780 27350 29640 39510 63500 45400 41900 29490 44960 32680 62720 43290 43710 26960 18960 106700 85520 37820 29580 36870 43770 118300 93860 90310 117200 77550 48620 35250 42020 46730 26330 39820 49910 14830 36050 38820 29190 68970 34540 50390 68410 116900 152000 40380 51640 113400 36490 59810 89290 33480 35330 37860 38540 58670 36590 31200 65670
2022-05-20 71910 79830 19650 31730 40990 36490 55360 55340 24690 81820 49150 42860 43200 67810 26340 69470 126500 90050 25170 66320 58380 39900 60840 64640 129400 81880 347100 35770 56420 49770 21270 26580 95140 21070 135200 43030 173300 49620 39180 102200 26680 40820 96180 168700 40170 109200 33840 32690 37980 33010 66480 51330 67430 43930 72470 34820 47530 102800 36700 47860 30880 47580 98750 12870 61850 61970 37170 53020 130800 121300 34250 35590 32050 41540 185300 20190 65530 7892 26400 23420 26980 159500 24080 183900 112000 16830 40810 124600 51660 38230 40400 28220 24590 86940 20080 62280 108600 107100 35520 109400 44880 53600 119400 50390 27270 42620 43760 37430 50420 38200 37140 29250 38800 107100 41550 69000 32940 45900 14710 49410 96970 44270 28290 37840 42600 61940 36420 31240 42630 128600 39020 34310 24090 26290 70340 40900 239800 42900 27330 36930 31110 90760 47290 26960 90560 49500 26950 63690 30970 83500 32570 53170 81910 33310 34010 29730 39590 89970 53090 37740 29860 69050 101500 37310 45110 95070 57000 29160 29760 45210 40540 74650 44940 35500 44550 90740 60150 139200 60080 112400 46860 276500 120800 30580 96260 35330 33630 55240 176900 75600 57560 20130 20460 194000 38190 94570 16360 33690 19320 72700 23930 28750 51090 56500 48150 53150 34380 98530 27800 20030 27890 42580 50430 39540 107300 42050 107600 44180 68310 50250 29190 32800 53180 43550 36300 141200 53810 23970 69630 78440 21600 34550 79730 107700 45180 110200 46350 20220 79530 5340 52790 26270 30860 47130 74810 89520 72030 26300 51790 57910 100700 47910 29240 53740 73840 71220 21290 66870 15340 77170 29050 24610 26110 93730 39350 29000 41680 35380 11810 14230 96320 110900 31460 32490 38420 99380 30000 39200 189900 6826 97680 52050 73480 46050 39200 23690 52550 36680 98090 24490 27990 45240 28770 131000 41110 30440 46300 39490 48990 36860 54940 82470 61520 102800 35920 52670 67270 46140 30820 30050 32470 103800 72010 88640 40790 35270 100000 31410 73460 49220 68510 73830 80810 27360 29660 39530 63530 45430 41930 29500 44990 32700 62750 43310 43730 26970 18980 106700 85560 37840 29600 36870 43800 118300 93910 90350 117300 77590 48650 35270 42050 46760 26350 39850 49930 14840 36070 38840 29220 69020 34560 50420 68430 116900 152100 40410 51670 113500 36520 59850 89330 33500 35350 37870 38560 58720 36610 31210 65710
2022-05-21 71970 79890 19660 31750 41010 36510 55380 55360 24700 81850 49180 42880 43220 67850 26350 69510 126600 90090 25180 66350 58410 39930 60870 64680 129400 81920 347300 35790 56430 49790 21270 26600 95180 21080 135300 43060 173400 49650 39210 102300 26690 40830 96230 168800 40200 109300 33860 32700 38000 33020 66500 51330 67450 43950 72500 34840 47570 102800 36730 47860 30890 47590 98820 12870 61880 62010 37200 53060 130900 121300 34280 35620 32070 41560 185400 20200 65570 7897 26400 23430 26990 159600 24100 184000 112100 16840 40840 124700 51690 38250 40430 28230 24590 86990 20090 62290 108600 107200 35540 109500 44910 53630 119500 50410 27290 42650 43790 37460 50440 38230 37170 29270 38820 107200 41570 69040 32960 45930 14720 49430 97000 44300 28300 37860 42630 61980 36450 31260 42640 128700 39020 34330 24110 26310 70370 40920 239900 42930 27350 36950 31130 90810 47310 26960 90610 49520 26970 63720 30990 83540 32590 53190 81960 33330 34030 29740 39620 90010 53140 37760 29880 69120 101600 37330 45150 95110 57050 29170 29780 45230 40560 74690 44960 35520 44580 90780 60180 139300 60110 112400 46890 276600 120900 30600 96310 35350 33660 55270 176900 75630 57600 20140 20480 194100 38210 94620 16370 33710 19320 72740 23950 28770 51130 56510 48180 53180 34400 98590 27820 20030 27930 42580 50470 39560 107400 42080 107600 44180 68330 50280 29210 32820 53200 43570 36330 141300 53840 23990 69670 78480 21610 34570 79770 107700 45210 110200 46380 20230 79560 5345 52820 26270 30870 47170 74840 89560 72080 26300 51810 57940 100700 47940 29250 53760 73890 71220 21300 66910 15350 77200 29060 24620 26130 93770 39370 29020 41700 35400 11820 14240 96360 110900 31480 32520 38440 99430 30020 39230 190000 6837 97750 52080 73520 46080 39240 23700 52590 36700 98150 24500 28010 45270 28790 131100 41140 30460 46320 39510 49020 36880 54970 82520 61550 102800 35940 52700 67300 46160 30830 30070 32490 103800 72050 88680 40820 35290 100100 31430 73500 49250 68510 73880 80840 27380 29680 39550 63570 45470 41950 29520 45020 32720 62780 43340 43750 26970 18990 106800 85600 37870 29620 36870 43830 118400 93950 90390 117400 77620 48680 35290 42080 46800 26360 39870 49960 14840 36090 38860 29240 69070 34580 50450 68460 117000 152200 40440 51700 113500 36550 59900 89360 33530 35370 37870 38590 58760 36630 31230 65750
2022-05-22 72020 79950 19680 31770 41030 36540 55410 55380 24720 81880 49210 42900 43250 67890 26370 69540 126700 90130 25200 66390 58450 39960 60910 64720 129500 81970 347400 35810 56450 49820 21270 26610 95220 21090 135400 43100 173400 49680 39230 102300 26710 40830 96290 168900 40230 109300 33880 32720 38030 33030 66540 51330 67480 43990 72550 34860 47600 102800 36750 47860 30910 47610 98900 12870 61920 62050 37220 53100 131000 121400 34300 35640 32090 41580 185600 20210 65620 7903 26400 23450 27010 159700 24120 184100 112100 16850 40860 124700 51730 38270 40450 28250 24600 87050 20100 62300 108700 107300 35580 109600 44950 53650 119500 50450 27310 42670 43820 37480 50480 38250 37200 29290 38840 107200 41600 69080 32980 45960 14740 49460 97050 44330 28320 37890 42650 62020 36480 31280 42650 128800 39030 34360 24120 26330 70410 40950 240100 42950 27370 36970 31150 90870 47350 26960 90660 49550 26990 63750 31010 83580 32610 53230 82010 33350 34050 29760 39650 90060 53180 37780 29890 69180 101700 37350 45190 95170 57100 29180 29810 45250 40590 74730 44980 35550 44620 90830 60220 139300 60130 112500 46920 276800 120900 30620 96370 35370 33680 55290 177000 75670 57640 20160 20500 194200 38230 94680 16370 33730 19320 72780 23960 28780 51160 56530 48200 53200 34420 98650 27840 20030 27960 42580 50510 39600 107400 42110 107600 44190 68350 50310 29220 32840 53240 43590 36360 141300 53890 24000 69720 78520 21630 34590 79810 107800 45240 110300 46400 20240 79590 5351 52860 26270 30890 47210 74890 89610 72130 26300 51830 57980 100800 47960 29270 53800 73930 71230 21310 66960 15360 77230 29080 24640 26150 93810 39390 29040 41730 35420 11830 14250 96400 110900 31500 32540 38470 99490 30040 39250 190100 6846 97820 52100 73560 46110 39280 23720 52640 36720 98210 24520 28030 45300 28810 131200 41170 30470 46350 39530 49050 36900 55000 82560 61590 102900 35960 52740 67340 46190 30850 30090 32510 103900 72100 88730 40840 35320 100200 31450 73550 49290 68520 73930 80880 27390 29700 39580 63610 45500 41980 29540 45050 32740 62810 43370 43770 26970 19000 106800 85640 37900 29640 36870 43860 118400 93990 90430 117400 77660 48710 35310 42110 46830 26380 39900 49990 14850 36110 38890 29250 69120 34600 50490 68490 117000 152300 40470 51740 113600 36580 59940 89400 33550 35400 37870 38620 58790 36660 31240 65800
2022-05-23 72080 80020 19700 31790 41060 36570 55430 55410 24740 81920 49250 42930 43280 67930 26380 69580 126800 90170 25220 66430 58490 39990 60950 64770 129500 82030 347600 35830 56470 49850 21270 26630 95270 21110 135500 43140 173500 49720 39260 102400 26730 40840 96360 169000 40260 109400 33900 32750 38060 33040 66580 51340 67520 44030 72600 34880 47640 102900 36770 47870 30930 47620 98980 12870 61950 62090 37250 53140 131100 121500 34320 35670 32120 41610 185900 20220 65670 7908 26410 23460 27020 159800 24130 184300 112200 16860 40890 124800 51770 38290 40480 28280 24600 87110 20120 62310 108700 107400 35610 109600 45000 53680 119600 50600 27340 42710 43860 37510 50530 38290 37230 29310 38870 107300 41630 69130 33000 46000 14750 49480 97120 44360 28340 37910 42680 62060 36510 31300 42660 128900 39030 34380 24150 26350 70450 40980 240400 42970 27390 36990 31170 90930 47380 26960 90710 49580 27010 63800 31030 83630 32640 53270 82080 33370 34070 29780 39680 90120 53230 37810 29910 69270 101800 37380 45230 95220 57150 29200 29830 45280 40610 74780 45000 35570 44650 90890 60270 139400 60160 112500 46960 276900 121000 30640 96430 35400 33710 55310 177100 75720 57680 20170 20520 194300 38260 94750 16380 33750 19320 72820 23980 28810 51190 56540 48220 53230 34440 98710 27860 20040 27990 42590 50560 39640 107500 42140 107700 44190 68370 50360 29240 32860 53270 43610 36390 141400 53930 24020 69780 78570 21640 34620 79860 107900 45280 110400 46430 20250 79610 5357 52900 26270 30900 47240 74950 89660 72190 26300 51870 58020 100800 47990 29290 53840 73980 71230 21320 67000 15370 77270 29100 24650 26180 93870 39420 29060 41750 35450 11840 14260 96450 111000 31520 32570 38490 99550 30060 39280 190300 6856 97900 52140 73600 46150 39320 23730 52680 36750 98280 24540 28050 45330 28840 131300 41210 30490 46380 39550 49090 36930 55030 82620 61630 103000 35980 52780 67390 46220 30870 30110 32540 104000 72140 88790 40880 35350 100200 31470 73600 49320 68520 73980 80930 27410 29720 39600 63660 45540 42020 29560 45080 32760 62850 43400 43800 26970 19010 106900 85700 37920 29670 36880 43890 118500 94050 90490 117500 77720 48750 35330 42140 46870 26400 39920 50020 14860 36140 38920 29280 69180 34620 50540 68520 117100 152400 40500 51780 113700 36610 59990 89450 33570 35420 37880 38650 58840 36680 31270 65860
2022-05-24 72140 80090 19710 31810 41080 36600 55460 55440 24770 81950 49280 42960 43310 67980 26400 69620 126900 90220 25240 66470 58540 40010 60980 64810 129600 82090 347700 35850 56490 49880 21270 26650 95310 21120 135600 43170 173600 49750 39290 102400 26750 40840 96420 169100 40300 109500 33920 32770 38080 33060 66610 51340 67550 44070 72650 34900 47680 102900 36800 47870 30960 47640 99060 12870 61990 62130 37270 53190 131200 121600 34350 35710 32150 41630 186100 20240 65720 7915 26410 23480 27040 159900 24150 184400 112300 16880 40920 124900 51810 38320 40510 28300 24600 87180 20130 62320 108800 107500 35630 109700 45040 53700 119700 50660 27360 42740 43890 37540 50570 38320 37260 29330 38890 107400 41660 69190 33020 46040 14760 49510 97180 44390 28360 37940 42710 62120 36540 31320 42670 129000 39030 34420 24170 26360 70490 41000 240600 43000 27420 37010 31190 91000 47420 26970 90760 49610 27030 63850 31050 83680 32660 53300 82140 33390 34090 29810 39710 90180 53270 37840 29920 69350 101800 37400 45280 95280 57210 29210 29860 45300 40650 74820 45030 35600 44690 90950 60310 139500 60200 112600 46990 277100 121000 30660 96500 35420 33730 55340 177200 75760 57740 20190 20540 194400 38280 94820 16390 33770 19320 72870 23990 28830 51230 56560 48240 53260 34460 98770 27880 20040 28030 42590 50610 39680 107500 42170 107700 44190 68390 50410 29260 32890 53310 43640 36410 141500 53980 24030 69830 78620 21650 34640 79900 108000 45310 110400 46450 20270 79640 5364 52940 26280 30910 47290 75000 89710 72250 26310 51900 58060 100900 48020 29310 53870 74050 71240 21340 67050 15380 77300 29110 24660 26200 93920 39450 29080 41780 35470 11840 14270 96500 111100 31540 32590 38520 99620 30080 39300 190400 6868 97980 52160 73640 46190 39360 23750 52730 36770 98350 24560 28080 45370 28860 131400 41240 30510 46420 39570 49120 36950 55060 82670 61680 103000 36000 52830 67430 46250 30890 30120 32560 104000 72180 88840 40900 35380 100300 31490 73650 49360 68520 74040 80970 27430 29750 39630 63700 45580 42050 29580 45110 32780 62880 43440 43830 26980 19020 107000 85750 37950 29700 36880 43920 118600 94110 90540 117600 77770 48790 35350 42180 46910 26420 39950 50050 14860 36160 38940 29300 69230 34640 50580 68560 117100 152500 40520 51820 113800 36640 60040 89490 33590 35450 37880 38680 58880 36710 31290 65900

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.