COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-05-24 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-05-24

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-05-24

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusArgyll and ButeArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252021-12-202022-03-232022-03-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222021-12-282022-03-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-03-222021-12-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-05-092022-02-062022-03-222022-04-062022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-02-062022-02-062022-03-222022-05-122022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062021-12-212022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-05-092022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-152022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-132022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-03-212022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-282022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-162022-03-262022-02-062022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-132022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-05-042022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-04-192022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-162022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-192022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-03-232022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-05-04
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 1126 1275 1525 780 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 134 398 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 266 253 17521 1550 3317 165 316 97 205 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 79 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 153 2002 167 611 195 234 273 132 1418 251 1362 119 1222 433 181 2422 2091 214 270 562 4793 1173 962 949 1524 3818 684 302 56 62 774 71 3960 513 7900 4326 70 1426 372 1559 1550 131 862 267 3466 481 4767 2335 1159 307 2036 1878 312 278 663 1048 1254 885 1468 1093 1560 891 1505 441 158 1625 976 1274 71 1353 3625 1652 982 152 1007 2291 930 917 6120 478 1022 779 105 2871 147 2415 1464 848 1510 117 3360 1261 78 3318 173 120 194 1115 3254 1188 224 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 287 1188 1044 2486 274 131 1158 3872 1474 1689 886 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 274 2021 423 185 4514 1732 837 234 803 3519 136 1238 9205 172 1963 580 540 462 146 3625 516 696 246 2554 147 650 1251 2802 1347 3381 825 67 1495 532 1263 162 4887 167 230 105 1531 659 963 1941 1111 180 3559 220 131 1868 297 835 131 2965 442 1403 274 1790 56 4269 264 210 83 57 2223 3085 535 331 73 2466 197 234 2322 108 1632 1804 1026 60 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 290 142 892 158 145 51 75 4748 5886 184 1365 1073 4438 126 1175 933 632 530 2347 2862 1130 1408 87 1599 147 2982 170 863 1470 162 4031 1059 875 1101 128 1007 129 2510 3022 2379 330 1253 1583 227 196 134 992 1278 3842 3631 293 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 116 2290 3757 94 844 990 249 1394 1055 812 237 1025 2766 1234 1351 350 431 5344 3306 1034 878 102 1143 361 250 3811 4283 279 217 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 808 1620 922 2543 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 241 139 796 98 1077 2155 132 129 284
Days since peak 107 107 120 120 120 107 107 120 120 120 120 120 62 63 120 120 120 120 120 120 63 63 120 120 120 60 155 62 56 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 63 120 120 120 120 120 120 63 120 63 147 61 63 63 62 120 63 120 64 120 63 153 120 120 63 63 63 120 120 120 120 120 15 107 63 48 62 120 62 120 120 120 120 58 120 63 120 120 63 120 146 120 120 120 120 120 62 107 107 63 12 120 120 107 120 120 120 107 120 107 63 62 120 120 120 63 120 120 120 120 62 120 107 120 120 107 154 120 120 63 120 62 15 120 120 120 61 120 120 70 120 63 62 63 120 120 120 63 120 120 120 120 120 120 63 120 120 107 63 60 120 120 120 120 107 120 147 120 120 120 120 120 61 120 63 63 120 120 63 63 120 120 60 120 120 61 120 120 120 63 62 120 120 120 148 120 62 120 120 120 107 120 120 72 107 146 120 63 120 62 63 64 107 120 120 120 120 63 91 63 63 120 63 120 63 120 63 120 63 120 57 120 107 63 69 59 107 120 63 63 72 120 63 62 120 62 120 91 148 62 120 120 120 120 120 120 63 63 120 63 63 61 63 120 120 20 107 120 120 63 120 35 107 63 120 120 120 107 63 120 58 120 63 120 120 63 107 120 120 120 63 120 59 120 120 120 63 120 120 60 61 62 120 107 120 120 59 120 120 120 120 120 120 69 120 120 62 120 120 62 120 120 120 63 120 120 120 120 156 120 120 120 120 120 64 120 62 59 120 120 63 63 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 91 120 120 107 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 62 63 120 63 120 120 63 63 20
Last total 71959 79959 19638 31739 41008 36537 24730 49197 42856 43207 67837 26368 69473 126562 90083 25172 66291 58417 39894 60871 64655 81895 347187 35776 56432 49783 21266 26590 95153 21075 135227 43084 173333 49635 39192 102266 26688 40827 96244 168792 40185 109176 33851 32698 37991 33025 66506 51332 67433 44000 72549 34807 47531 102828 36692 47856 30878 98711 12858 61855 61958 37193 53023 130918 121246 34244 35610 32057 41545 183261 20180 65520 7929 26403 23421 26963 159616 24101 183978 112061 16834 40832 124682 51680 38248 40402 28230 24599 86963 20085 108561 107181 35531 109438 44902 53652 119499 49242 27278 42639 43803 37464 50465 38211 37188 29260 38839 107169 41541 69052 32954 45927 14698 49455 97006 44294 28288 37832 42628 61999 36452 31264 128707 39019 34287 24099 26298 70367 40907 238674 42951 27338 36940 31119 90819 47301 26957 90598 49524 26952 63727 30965 83563 32565 53202 81953 33337 34020 29730 39633 89978 53125 37750 29888 69169 101575 37329 45136 95100 57029 29170 29784 45226 14799 40530 74712 44999 35503 44544 90760 60199 139244 60096 112414 46907 276643 120835 30597 96334 35333 33643 176912 75613 57606 20120 20468 194138 38208 94582 16368 33701 19317 72740 23953 28749 51113 53191 34451 98528 27825 20032 27897 42573 50435 39529 107388 42046 107563 44178 50280 29192 32818 53203 43584 36314 141326 53784 23994 69649 78505 21612 34562 79746 107815 45191 110247 46372 20210 79563 5353 52845 26263 30895 47197 74809 89574 72084 26301 51800 57942 100680 47958 29239 53770 73851 71226 21310 66922 15351 77181 29050 24613 26101 93807 39360 29008 41682 35386 11821 14239 96346 110894 31452 32539 38424 99387 30014 39214 189952 6836 97713 52031 73505 46090 39227 23708 52580 36674 98082 24516 27981 45249 28800 131090 41111 30461 46338 39494 49042 36847 54965 82520 61533 102887 35917 52661 67276 46152 30829 30062 32492 103851 72021 88657 40836 35277 100048 31402 73480 49228 68509 73823 80872 27380 29664 39580 63535 45426 41950 29514 44986 32693 62757 43323 43742 26962 19001 106791 85601 37837 29610 36867 43851 118354 93925 90385 117354 77625 48680 35280 42052 46762 26350 39854 49968 14844 36111 38842 29204 69092 34593 50442 68542 116951 152133 40409 51698 113506 36528 59868 89376 33524 35372 37866 38553 58729 36604 31234 65735
Last daily increment 27 47 6 8 17 20 15 12 9 11 22 12 14 34 17 4 7 17 10 20 23 15 60 3 10 18 0 4 21 6 42 21 33 8 9 26 7 0 37 49 13 24 5 9 10 7 15 0 10 20 26 4 11 0 5 0 6 26 0 14 16 14 15 39 36 10 18 10 8 115 5 16 11 0 5 5 45 11 51 18 3 9 31 11 16 5 15 0 30 7 22 33 10 27 27 24 40 11 7 14 32 14 16 10 21 12 22 34 10 18 7 18 2 19 21 11 7 11 11 26 13 15 42 0 4 7 8 15 13 100 12 6 13 10 26 16 0 23 6 5 24 10 27 7 13 20 19 6 7 19 19 18 6 7 60 27 12 14 22 29 7 15 12 0 14 25 10 11 15 21 17 25 13 29 15 81 21 10 31 10 11 37 18 26 3 8 48 5 21 3 10 0 26 8 7 9 6 29 21 5 0 18 0 10 11 31 13 21 0 26 5 9 9 13 9 59 11 13 22 19 6 7 11 43 17 29 12 2 23 3 29 0 12 29 14 26 28 0 14 16 22 10 4 7 24 0 8 30 0 12 3 6 5 31 8 9 14 8 6 4 27 15 9 19 13 17 8 8 52 8 34 10 18 15 23 4 16 7 25 12 3 19 8 45 12 14 20 14 20 3 18 32 17 39 10 17 9 14 6 5 10 26 10 17 19 5 29 14 12 7 0 17 15 11 11 9 17 5 23 7 19 10 11 14 9 0 9 19 22 8 9 0 20 17 26 15 24 24 14 8 14 7 8 15 13 3 17 10 7 40 16 11 19 28 42 14 14 28 7 20 11 9 11 0 15 18 5 10 25
Last week 181 262 23 51 71 103 90 105 58 67 119 55 81 225 127 40 49 126 53 107 94 109 410 53 54 72 2 45 111 30 218 124 192 74 71 146 49 13 170 265 79 137 50 50 69 50 94 15 82 134 161 36 75 22 45 7 42 142 1 70 86 70 95 235 185 55 89 62 47 -7610 31 111 43 12 35 23 332 55 325 149 21 70 197 80 69 55 55 7 142 29 110 219 64 129 104 115 203 87 53 74 117 83 102 62 113 49 88 216 57 135 59 108 23 86 143 74 35 55 84 163 91 65 319 5 35 52 41 115 66 -3595 100 44 45 48 141 79 5 140 79 49 115 45 167 45 107 156 74 50 50 98 112 122 66 45 285 175 63 117 157 123 34 63 66 6 56 133 98 63 80 128 108 164 81 166 103 393 126 54 180 59 56 244 108 127 20 50 289 58 131 27 64 6 112 49 46 89 80 111 120 56 4 113 8 99 66 187 65 116 6 134 31 61 85 74 79 279 74 49 126 167 34 60 91 229 84 153 72 14 96 26 123 6 57 151 107 143 166 4 69 94 126 87 42 99 141 15 39 144 28 81 33 20 45 161 64 43 72 60 27 26 124 131 44 85 59 138 55 63 336 34 178 50 119 97 101 59 122 44 144 62 25 77 75 274 79 53 99 51 110 36 85 169 93 196 45 82 96 69 57 43 83 176 97 122 101 71 152 44 111 78 10 103 135 49 44 100 94 68 85 48 66 41 82 65 58 1 47 174 125 55 53 6 105 138 117 134 189 122 100 65 73 72 42 68 94 22 87 46 38 198 80 100 166 143 262 70 97 193 66 118 117 55 73 8 48 105 45 59 123
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-09-012021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-202022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-06-062022-01-242021-10-082022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-10-192022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-12-282021-07-152021-12-292021-07-152022-01-242021-10-10 --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152022-01-292021-09-012022-01-242022-02-062021-12-282021-07-142022-01-242021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-132022-01-24 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-07-15 -- --2022-01-242021-08-242021-06-292022-01-242022-02-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-15 --2022-01-24 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132022-01-242021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-09-0612-272021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-122022-01-242022-02-142021-07-15 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-12-212021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-172021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-152021-10-142021-09-022022-01-242022-01-242021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-162022-01-242022-01-242021-07-112021-07-162022-01-242021-07-29 --2022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-152021-12-202021-07-122021-09-15 --2022-01-242021-07-112022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 --2022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242021-10-182022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-08-032022-01-242021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-06-29 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-12-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192022-01-242021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-09-012021-08-17 --2022-01-242021-07-162022-01-24 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-152022-01-24 -- --2022-01-242021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-10-182021-07-152022-01-24 --2021-08-172022-01-242021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-112021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-172021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-12-28 --2021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 97 127 120 57 3477 4581 276 70 139 152 144 287 2285 3307 943 127 2250 121 962 4696 293 107 478 103 176 68 508 218 621 4 258 94 72 1302 74 2935 249 2895 1143 2214 1302 1131 115 528 101 3005 68 170 1033 1466 3801 243 82 73 125 121 7727 69 1939 121 403 114 995 708 607 376 551 101 5019 122 140 1634 86 64 400 4687 137 188 4677 1747 135 183 122 100 65 157 3182 1563 61 417 105 58 1189 128 185 88 421 151 67 56 884 274 1519 7700 95 63 1137 163 322 229 2105 817 2104 152 61 1498 65 146 54 151 1707 82 90 203 3914 1327 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 3609 6117 3336 301 117 11029 6320 51 213 1176 99 3848 120 41 47 10177 1515 169 40 164 72 503 101 274 115 49 181 31 184 1329 384 1519 5335 518 164 123 94 256 1060 1294 1824 525 291 2931 77 1179 3811 87 5264 158 839 255 1562 291 1808 118 2613 2589 308 2199 4529 297 1065 114 289 268 776 140 67 213 75 73 49 4307 1311 1297 1206 259 344 253 951 78 123 857 96 8405 3240 277 202 118 768 1218 345 587 763 470 128 68 77 1609 106 1377 303 200 152 4073 70 131 3012 1783 1077 91 243 339 3812 201 428 57 145 101 890 329 219 968 143 2555 116 92 150 1551 78 105 131 131 106 226 286 64 422 79 5038 4407 157 313 2987 1563 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 4157 1188 63 397 117 1437 1060 2087
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 28 49 59 18 51 163 103 28 53 51 54 99 87 80 406 33 47 36 21 45 124 39 190 42 75 22 28 83 100 2 100 38 34 55 31 43 97 43 97 122 31 99 22 56 21 143 24 46 94 98 164 119 31 31 54 35 121 19 107 20 29 25 29 227 190 143 19 39 163 49 43 40 41 32 142 85 56 26 150 38 49 49 57 36 30 35 136 49 25 19 38 23 45 44 80 41 199 1 29 19 22 75 49 170 21 30 49 76 21 57 45 39 89 75 27 85 32 32 18 70 81 41 37 59 115 39 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 100 95 49 74 44 269 77 20 66 41 43 66 51 17 14 129 31 77 11 75 30 58 36 58 32 24 22 2 75 42 120 35 103 32 54 61 39 68 52 157 44 56 115 99 22 32 136 42 108 50 15 87 96 29 9 19 148 106 22 86 84 49 38 51 68 125 15 61 17 69 20 21 17 66 54 55 59 20 21 104 21 28 40 35 33 182 149 91 64 40 28 46 58 48 35 149 59 28 35 30 42 33 55 94 56 161 34 49 48 60 33 38 118 78 78 62 96 24 64 24 56 103 85 22 34 70 35 37 63 74 33 36 51 59 41 72 125 31 40 36 79 68 70 94 69 88 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 58 59 31 28 52 36 37 37

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-25 to 2022-05-31

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusArgyll and ButeArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFifeFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-05-24 71959 79959 19638 31739 41008 36537 24730 49197 42856 43207 67837 26368 69473 126562 90083 25172 66291 58417 39894 60871 64655 81895 347187 35776 56432 49783 26590 95153 21075 135227 43084 173333 49635 39192 102266 26688 40827 96244 168792 40185 109176 33851 32698 37991 33025 66506 51332 67433 44000 72549 34807 47531 102828 36692 47856 30878 98711 61855 61958 37193 53023 130918 121246 34244 35610 32057 41545 20180 65520 7929 26403 23421 26963 159616 24101 183978 112061 16834 40832 124682 51680 38248 40402 28230 24599 86963 20085 108561 107181 35531 109438 44902 53652 119499 49242 27278 42639 43803 37464 50465 38211 37188 29260 38839 107169 41541 69052 32954 45927 14698 49455 97006 44294 28288 37832 42628 61999 36452 31264 128707 34287 24099 26298 70367 40907 42951 27338 36940 31119 90819 47301 90598 49524 26952 63727 30965 83563 32565 53202 81953 33337 34020 29730 39633 89978 53125 37750 29888 69169 101575 37329 45136 95100 57029 29170 29784 45226 14799 40530 74712 44999 35503 44544 90760 60199 139244 60096 112414 46907 276643 120835 30597 96334 35333 33643 176912 75613 57606 20120 20468 194138 38208 94582 16368 33701 19317 72740 23953 28749 51113 53191 34451 98528 27825 27897 42573 50435 39529 107388 42046 107563 44178 50280 29192 32818 53203 43584 36314 141326 53784 23994 69649 78505 21612 34562 79746 107815 45191 110247 46372 20210 79563 5353 52845 26263 30895 47197 74809 89574 72084 51800 57942 100680 47958 29239 53770 73851 71226 21310 66922 15351 77181 29050 24613 26101 93807 39360 29008 41682 35386 11821 14239 96346 110894 31452 32539 38424 99387 30014 39214 189952 6836 97713 52031 73505 46090 39227 23708 52580 36674 98082 24516 27981 45249 28800 131090 41111 30461 46338 39494 49042 36847 54965 82520 61533 102887 35917 52661 67276 46152 30829 30062 32492 103851 72021 88657 40836 35277 100048 31402 73480 49228 68509 73823 80872 27380 29664 39580 63535 45426 41950 29514 44986 32693 62757 43323 43742 19001 106791 85601 37837 29610 36867 43851 118354 93925 90385 117354 77625 48680 35280 42052 46762 26350 39854 49968 14844 36111 38842 29204 69092 34593 50442 68542 116951 152133 40409 51698 113506 36528 59868 89376 33524 35372 37866 38553 58729 36604 31234 65735
2022-05-25 72020 80030 19640 31750 41040 36570 24750 49220 42870 43220 67880 26380 69510 126700 90120 25200 66340 58440 39910 60900 64680 81960 347400 35790 56450 49810 26610 95190 21080 135300 43110 173400 49650 39210 102300 26710 40840 96320 168900 40210 109200 33860 32720 38010 33040 66560 51340 67480 44040 72620 34820 47550 102900 36710 47860 30900 98740 61880 62000 37210 53050 131000 121300 34260 35630 32080 41580 20190 65550 7932 26410 23430 26970 159700 24110 184100 112100 16850 40850 124800 51720 38270 40420 28240 24610 87010 20090 108600 107200 35550 109500 44940 53680 119600 49260 27290 42660 43840 37480 50500 38250 37220 29270 38860 107200 41580 69080 32970 45950 14710 49480 97060 44330 28310 37850 42670 62050 36470 31270 128800 34300 24110 26310 70400 40920 42960 27350 36960 31130 90850 47330 90660 49560 26970 63780 30980 83600 32590 53240 81990 33350 34040 29740 39650 90040 53150 37770 29910 69210 101600 37360 45160 95140 57060 29180 29800 45240 14800 40550 74780 45030 35520 44560 90840 60230 139300 60130 112500 46930 276800 120900 30600 96390 35350 33660 177000 75640 57640 20140 20490 194300 38240 94610 16380 33710 19320 72790 23980 28760 51130 53220 34470 98570 27840 27910 42580 50450 39550 107500 42070 107600 44190 50320 29200 32850 53260 43620 36330 141400 53820 24010 69690 78540 21620 34580 79800 107900 45210 110300 46390 20220 79590 5358 52880 26270 30910 47240 74870 89610 72120 51820 57990 100700 48000 29250 53800 73940 71230 21320 66950 15360 77210 29060 24630 26110 93850 39380 29020 41710 35400 11830 14250 96410 111000 31460 32560 38440 99450 30030 39230 190000 6846 97760 52060 73540 46110 39250 23720 52610 36690 98120 24530 28010 45270 28820 131200 41130 30470 46360 39510 49070 36860 55000 82550 61570 102900 35940 52700 67330 46170 30840 30070 32520 103900 72050 88720 40860 35290 100100 31410 73520 49250 68520 73850 80910 27390 29690 39600 63590 45450 41980 29530 45020 32700 62800 43360 43780 19010 106900 85630 37850 29640 36880 43870 118400 93970 90430 117400 77670 48700 35300 42070 46780 26360 39880 49990 14850 36130 38860 29220 69160 34610 50480 68590 117000 152200 40430 51730 113600 36540 59890 89410 33540 35380 37870 38570 58760 36620 31250 65770
2022-05-26 72100 80110 19650 31780 41060 36600 24780 49260 42910 43250 67910 26400 69540 126700 90180 25210 66370 58470 39920 60940 64740 82000 347600 35820 56480 49860 26630 95260 21100 135400 43140 173500 49680 39260 102400 26720 40840 96380 169000 40240 109200 33880 32740 38050 33050 66590 51340 67520 44070 72660 34840 47580 102900 36740 47870 30920 98780 61900 62030 37240 53090 131000 121300 34290 35660 32110 41610 20210 65610 7939 26410 23440 26990 159800 24130 184200 112200 16860 40870 124800 51750 38300 40450 28260 24610 87090 20100 108700 107300 35570 109600 45010 53720 119600 49390 27320 42680 43870 37520 50530 38290 37250 29280 38880 107300 41610 69140 32990 46000 14730 49500 97100 44360 28330 37880 42700 62110 36510 31290 128900 34330 24130 26320 70470 40950 42990 27370 36980 31160 90880 47360 90710 49590 27000 63820 30990 83650 32610 53280 82050 33370 34060 29770 39680 90100 53200 37790 29930 69270 101700 37380 45210 95190 57120 29200 29820 45270 14810 40570 74820 45060 35550 44580 90900 60260 139400 60160 112600 46970 276900 121000 30610 96460 35370 33690 177200 75670 57680 20150 20510 194400 38260 94640 16380 33720 19320 72820 24010 28790 51170 53260 34500 98630 27850 27930 42590 50480 39590 107500 42110 107700 44190 50360 29210 32870 53310 43640 36360 141500 53840 24030 69760 78610 21640 34600 79840 108000 45250 110400 46420 20240 79630 5364 52910 26270 30920 47290 74920 89640 72180 51840 58010 100800 48030 29270 53820 74010 71240 21330 66980 15380 77260 29080 24630 26130 93910 39410 29040 41740 35420 11840 14250 96460 111000 31480 32590 38470 99490 30050 39260 190100 6865 97850 52090 73580 46150 39290 23730 52660 36710 98200 24550 28030 45300 28840 131300 41170 30480 46390 39520 49110 36890 55020 82600 61610 103000 35960 52740 67380 46210 30870 30090 32550 103900 72120 88770 40890 35330 100100 31430 73560 49280 68530 73920 80950 27410 29710 39630 63640 45500 42010 29540 45040 32720 62820 43370 43820 19010 106900 85660 37870 29660 36890 43900 118500 94000 90490 117500 77700 48740 35320 42110 46800 26380 39900 50030 14860 36160 38890 29250 69220 34630 50520 68620 117000 152300 40460 51760 113700 36570 59920 89460 33560 35400 37880 38600 58800 36640 31270 65820
2022-05-27 72170 80190 19660 31810 41080 36630 24790 49290 42930 43270 67930 26410 69570 126800 90230 25230 66400 58500 39940 60980 64780 82040 347700 35840 56500 49900 26640 95310 21110 135500 43170 173600 49700 39290 102400 26740 40850 96440 169100 40280 109300 33900 32760 38090 33060 66620 51350 67540 44100 72710 34870 47610 102900 36760 47870 30930 98810 61930 62070 37260 53130 131100 121400 34310 35690 32130 41630 20230 65660 7942 26420 23460 27010 159900 24150 184200 112300 16870 40900 124800 51780 38320 40480 28280 24610 87150 20110 108700 107400 35600 109600 45060 53750 119700 49470 27340 42710 43900 37550 50550 38310 37280 29300 38900 107400 41640 69200 33010 46040 14750 49530 97150 44380 28340 37910 42730 62160 36540 31300 129100 34360 24150 26340 70530 40980 43000 27390 36990 31180 90900 47370 90750 49620 27020 63850 31000 83700 32630 53310 82100 33390 34080 29780 39710 90140 53240 37810 29950 69340 101800 37390 45250 95240 57170 29210 29840 45300 14810 40590 74860 45090 35570 44600 90960 60280 139500 60190 112600 47000 277000 121000 30630 96510 35390 33710 177200 75690 57710 20160 20520 194400 38280 94670 16390 33730 19330 72840 24020 28810 51200 53290 34520 98690 27870 27950 42590 50510 39630 107600 42140 107800 44200 50390 29230 32890 53340 43650 36380 141500 53870 24040 69820 78670 21650 34630 79870 108100 45280 110400 46450 20250 79660 5371 52920 26280 30930 47340 74950 89660 72240 51870 58030 100800 48050 29290 53840 74060 71250 21340 67010 15380 77290 29100 24640 26140 93960 39440 29060 41770 35430 11860 14260 96500 111100 31500 32620 38500 99530 30070 39280 190200 6879 97920 52120 73620 46180 39320 23740 52710 36720 98270 24570 28050 45340 28860 131400 41210 30490 46410 39540 49140 36910 55040 82630 61640 103000 35970 52770 67420 46240 30890 30100 32570 104000 72170 88820 40920 35350 100200 31450 73580 49320 68530 73970 80990 27430 29720 39660 63670 45540 42030 29560 45070 32740 62850 43380 43840 19020 107000 85690 37880 29680 36890 43920 118600 94030 90530 117600 77730 48780 35340 42140 46830 26400 39920 50060 14870 36190 38910 29280 69270 34650 50560 68660 117100 152400 40490 51790 113700 36600 59950 89500 33580 35420 37880 38620 58850 36660 31280 65840
2022-05-28 72230 80260 19670 31830 41100 36660 24820 49330 42960 43300 67950 26430 69590 126900 90280 25240 66430 58540 39960 61020 64830 82080 347700 35860 56520 49930 26650 95350 21130 135600 43200 173600 49720 39320 102500 26750 40850 96490 169200 40310 109300 33920 32770 38120 33070 66640 51350 67570 44130 72740 34890 47640 102900 36790 47870 30950 98840 61960 62100 37290 53170 131200 121400 34330 35710 32150 41650 20250 65700 7950 26420 23470 27030 160000 24170 184300 112300 16880 40920 124900 51810 38340 40500 28290 24610 87210 20130 108800 107400 35620 109700 45100 53780 119700 49510 27370 42740 43930 37580 50570 38340 37310 29310 38920 107400 41660 69250 33030 46070 14760 49560 97180 44400 28350 37940 42760 62200 36560 31320 129200 34380 24170 26350 70580 41000 43020 27410 37000 31200 90930 47380 90790 49640 27050 63880 31010 83740 32640 53340 82160 33410 34100 29800 39740 90180 53280 37840 29960 69400 101900 37410 45280 95300 57210 29220 29860 45330 14810 40610 74900 45110 35600 44620 91000 60290 139500 60210 112700 47030 277100 121100 30640 96550 35410 33730 177300 75720 57740 20170 20540 194500 38300 94710 16400 33750 19330 72860 24040 28830 51220 53320 34540 98750 27880 27970 42600 50540 39660 107600 42170 107800 44200 50420 29240 32910 53370 43660 36410 141600 53890 24060 69870 78720 21660 34650 79900 108100 45310 110500 46470 20260 79690 5378 52940 26280 30940 47380 74990 89670 72290 51890 58040 100900 48070 29310 53850 74100 71260 21350 67030 15390 77320 29120 24640 26160 94010 39470 29080 41790 35440 11870 14270 96530 111100 31510 32650 38530 99560 30090 39310 190300 6891 97990 52140 73660 46210 39350 23750 52750 36740 98330 24590 28070 45370 28880 131500 41240 30500 46430 39550 49170 36930 55060 82670 61670 103000 35970 52790 67440 46270 30900 30120 32590 104000 72220 88850 40950 35380 100200 31460 73600 49350 68530 74020 81020 27450 29740 39680 63710 45580 42060 29580 45090 32750 62880 43390 43870 19030 107000 85720 37900 29700 36900 43940 118600 94070 90570 117600 77770 48810 35360 42170 46860 26420 39950 50090 14880 36210 38940 29300 69320 34670 50590 68680 117100 152500 40520 51820 113800 36630 59970 89540 33600 35430 37880 38650 58890 36670 31300 65890
2022-05-29 72290 80320 19680 31850 41120 36690 24840 49360 42980 43320 67970 26450 69620 127000 90330 25260 66460 58580 39970 61060 64870 82130 347900 35890 56540 49960 26670 95390 21140 135600 43230 173700 49740 39360 102500 26770 40850 96550 169200 40340 109400 33940 32790 38150 33090 66670 51360 67600 44170 72800 34900 47670 102900 36810 47880 30960 98860 61990 62130 37320 53200 131200 121400 34360 35740 32170 41670 20260 65750 7956 26430 23480 27040 160000 24190 184400 112400 16890 40950 124900 51840 38370 40520 28310 24610 87270 20140 108800 107500 35650 109700 45140 53810 119800 49560 27390 42760 43970 37610 50590 38360 37340 29330 38940 107500 41680 69300 33050 46110 14770 49590 97230 44430 28370 37960 42790 62250 36590 31330 129300 34410 24190 26370 70620 41030 43030 27430 37020 31220 90970 47400 90840 49670 27070 63920 31020 83780 32660 53380 82210 33430 34120 29810 39760 90220 53320 37860 29980 69470 101900 37440 45320 95350 57260 29230 29880 45350 14810 40630 74940 45130 35620 44650 91060 60310 139600 60230 112700 47060 277200 121100 30660 96610 35440 33760 177400 75740 57780 20180 20550 194600 38320 94740 16410 33770 19330 72880 24060 28850 51250 53340 34570 98810 27890 28000 42600 50570 39690 107700 42200 107800 44200 50460 29260 32930 53390 43680 36430 141700 53920 24080 69930 78780 21670 34670 79940 108200 45350 110500 46500 20270 79720 5384 52960 26280 30950 47420 75030 89690 72340 51900 58060 100900 48100 29320 53870 74150 71260 21360 67060 15400 77350 29140 24660 26180 94060 39490 29090 41820 35450 11880 14280 96560 111100 31530 32680 38560 99600 30110 39330 190400 6903 98070 52160 73700 46250 39380 23770 52790 36760 98390 24610 28090 45400 28900 131600 41280 30510 46450 39570 49200 36950 55080 82700 61710 103100 35990 52830 67470 46300 30920 30140 32620 104100 72260 88900 40980 35410 100300 31470 73630 49380 68540 74070 81050 27460 29760 39710 63750 45610 42080 29590 45110 32760 62900 43410 43900 19040 107100 85750 37910 29720 36900 43960 118700 94110 90610 117700 77810 48850 35390 42200 46880 26430 39970 50130 14890 36240 38960 29330 69370 34700 50620 68710 117100 152600 40550 51860 113900 36650 60000 89570 33620 35450 37890 38680 58930 36690 31320 65930
2022-05-30 72350 80390 19690 31870 41150 36710 24870 49400 43010 43350 67990 26470 69650 127000 90370 25280 66490 58610 39990 61100 64910 82170 348000 35910 56560 49990 26680 95430 21150 135700 43260 173800 49770 39390 102600 26780 40860 96600 169300 40370 109400 33950 32810 38180 33100 66700 51360 67630 44210 72850 34920 47690 102900 36830 47880 30980 98890 62010 62170 37340 53240 131300 121500 34380 35770 32190 41690 20280 65790 7960 26430 23490 27050 160100 24210 184500 112400 16900 40970 124900 51880 38390 40540 28330 24610 87330 20150 108900 107600 35670 109800 45170 53830 119900 49580 27410 42790 44000 37640 50610 38390 37370 29340 38970 107600 41700 69350 33070 46150 14780 49610 97290 44460 28390 37990 42820 62310 36620 31360 129300 34430 24210 26380 70670 41050 43050 27450 37040 31240 91010 47420 90890 49690 27090 63960 31040 83830 32680 53410 82260 33450 34130 29830 39790 90270 53360 37880 29990 69530 102000 37460 45360 95400 57310 29240 29890 45380 14810 40660 74990 45170 35640 44680 91120 60330 139700 60250 112800 47090 277300 121100 30670 96670 35460 33780 177400 75770 57830 20190 20570 194700 38340 94780 16420 33780 19330 72900 24080 28870 51270 53370 34590 98870 27900 28020 42600 50600 39710 107700 42220 107900 44200 50500 29270 32950 53420 43690 36450 141800 53960 24100 69990 78830 21680 34690 79990 108300 45380 110600 46520 20280 79740 5391 52980 26280 30960 47460 75070 89730 72390 51920 58080 101000 48130 29340 53890 74210 71270 21370 67080 15410 77380 29150 24660 26190 94110 39520 29110 41840 35460 11890 14290 96600 111200 31550 32700 38580 99650 30120 39360 190500 6913 98130 52190 73730 46280 39410 23780 52840 36780 98450 24630 28100 45430 28930 131700 41310 30520 46470 39590 49240 36970 55110 82730 61740 103100 35990 52860 67500 46320 30940 30150 32640 104100 72300 88940 41010 35430 100300 31480 73650 49410 68540 74120 81090 27480 29770 39740 63790 45640 42110 29610 45140 32770 62940 43420 43930 19050 107100 85780 37930 29740 36910 43980 118700 94130 90660 117800 77850 48880 35410 42230 46910 26450 39990 50170 14900 36260 38980 29350 69420 34720 50660 68740 117200 152700 40580 51890 113900 36680 60020 89610 33640 35470 37890 38700 58970 36710 31340 65970
2022-05-31 72400 80460 19700 31890 41170 36740 24890 49430 43030 43380 68010 26490 69670 127100 90410 25290 66520 58650 40010 61130 64950 82210 348100 35930 56580 50010 26700 95460 21160 135800 43290 173800 49800 39420 102600 26800 40860 96660 169400 40400 109500 33970 32830 38200 33110 66720 51360 67660 44250 72910 34940 47720 102900 36850 47880 31000 98910 62040 62200 37370 53280 131400 121500 34400 35790 32210 41700 20290 65830 7968 26430 23500 27070 160200 24220 184600 112500 16910 41000 125000 51910 38410 40570 28350 24620 87380 20160 108900 107700 35700 109800 45210 53860 120000 49600 27430 42820 44040 37670 50630 38410 37390 29360 38990 107600 41720 69400 33090 46180 14790 49650 97330 44480 28400 38010 42850 62350 36650 31380 129400 34450 24220 26390 70710 41070 43060 27460 37060 31260 91070 47430 90940 49710 27110 64000 31050 83880 32700 53450 82310 33480 34150 29850 39820 90310 53400 37910 30010 69600 102100 37480 45400 95450 57350 29250 29910 45410 14810 40690 75040 45190 35660 44700 91150 60340 139700 60270 112800 47120 277400 121200 30690 96730 35480 33790 177500 75790 57870 20200 20590 194700 38360 94840 16430 33800 19330 72930 24100 28890 51290 53390 34610 98930 27910 28040 42610 50640 39740 107800 42250 107900 44200 50540 29290 32970 53440 43710 36480 141900 53980 24120 70040 78880 21690 34710 80020 108300 45410 110600 46550 20290 79770 5398 53010 26280 30980 47500 75110 89750 72440 51940 58100 101000 48150 29350 53900 74270 71270 21380 67110 15420 77410 29170 24670 26210 94160 39540 29130 41860 35480 11900 14290 96640 111200 31560 32730 38610 99680 30140 39380 190600 6923 98200 52210 73770 46320 39440 23790 52880 36800 98510 24650 28110 45460 28950 131800 41340 30530 46490 39610 49280 36990 55140 82760 61780 103100 36000 52900 67520 46350 30960 30170 32660 104200 72340 88990 41040 35460 100400 31490 73660 49440 68540 74170 81120 27490 29790 39770 63820 45670 42140 29630 45170 32780 62970 43440 43950 19060 107200 85820 37960 29760 36910 44000 118800 94170 90700 117800 77900 48910 35430 42260 46940 26460 40020 50200 14910 36290 39000 29370 69470 34750 50690 68760 117200 152800 40610 51920 114000 36700 60040 89640 33660 35500 37890 38720 59000 36730 31360 66010

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-25 to 2022-05-31

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusArgyll and ButeArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFifeFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-05-24 71959 79959 19638 31739 41008 36537 24730 49197 42856 43207 67837 26368 69473 126562 90083 25172 66291 58417 39894 60871 64655 81895 347187 35776 56432 49783 26590 95153 21075 135227 43084 173333 49635 39192 102266 26688 40827 96244 168792 40185 109176 33851 32698 37991 33025 66506 51332 67433 44000 72549 34807 47531 102828 36692 47856 30878 98711 61855 61958 37193 53023 130918 121246 34244 35610 32057 41545 20180 65520 7929 26403 23421 26963 159616 24101 183978 112061 16834 40832 124682 51680 38248 40402 28230 24599 86963 20085 108561 107181 35531 109438 44902 53652 119499 49242 27278 42639 43803 37464 50465 38211 37188 29260 38839 107169 41541 69052 32954 45927 14698 49455 97006 44294 28288 37832 42628 61999 36452 31264 128707 34287 24099 26298 70367 40907 42951 27338 36940 31119 90819 47301 90598 49524 26952 63727 30965 83563 32565 53202 81953 33337 34020 29730 39633 89978 53125 37750 29888 69169 101575 37329 45136 95100 57029 29170 29784 45226 14799 40530 74712 44999 35503 44544 90760 60199 139244 60096 112414 46907 276643 120835 30597 96334 35333 33643 176912 75613 57606 20120 20468 194138 38208 94582 16368 33701 19317 72740 23953 28749 51113 53191 34451 98528 27825 27897 42573 50435 39529 107388 42046 107563 44178 50280 29192 32818 53203 43584 36314 141326 53784 23994 69649 78505 21612 34562 79746 107815 45191 110247 46372 20210 79563 5353 52845 26263 30895 47197 74809 89574 72084 51800 57942 100680 47958 29239 53770 73851 71226 21310 66922 15351 77181 29050 24613 26101 93807 39360 29008 41682 35386 11821 14239 96346 110894 31452 32539 38424 99387 30014 39214 189952 6836 97713 52031 73505 46090 39227 23708 52580 36674 98082 24516 27981 45249 28800 131090 41111 30461 46338 39494 49042 36847 54965 82520 61533 102887 35917 52661 67276 46152 30829 30062 32492 103851 72021 88657 40836 35277 100048 31402 73480 49228 68509 73823 80872 27380 29664 39580 63535 45426 41950 29514 44986 32693 62757 43323 43742 19001 106791 85601 37837 29610 36867 43851 118354 93925 90385 117354 77625 48680 35280 42052 46762 26350 39854 49968 14844 36111 38842 29204 69092 34593 50442 68542 116951 152133 40409 51698 113506 36528 59868 89376 33524 35372 37866 38553 58729 36604 31234 65735
2022-05-25 72010 80020 19650 31750 41030 36560 24750 49220 42870 43220 67870 26380 69500 126600 90110 25180 66320 58440 39910 60900 64680 81930 347300 35790 56450 49800 26600 95180 21080 135300 43110 173400 49650 39210 102300 26700 40830 96290 168900 40210 109200 33860 32710 38010 33030 66530 51330 67450 44030 72590 34820 47550 102800 36710 47860 30890 98750 61880 61980 37210 53050 131000 121300 34260 35630 32070 41560 20190 65550 7936 26410 23430 26970 159700 24110 184000 112100 16840 40850 124700 51700 38260 40420 28240 24600 87000 20090 108600 107200 35550 109500 44930 53680 119500 49260 27290 42660 43830 37480 50490 38230 37210 29270 38860 107200 41560 69080 32970 45950 14710 49470 97040 44320 28300 37850 42650 62030 36470 31280 128800 34300 24110 26310 70390 40920 42970 27350 36950 31130 90850 47320 90640 49550 26960 63760 30980 83590 32580 53220 81990 33350 34030 29740 39660 90010 53150 37760 29900 69230 101600 37350 45160 95140 57060 29180 29800 45240 14800 40550 74750 45020 35520 44560 90800 60230 139300 60120 112500 46930 276700 120900 30610 96370 35340 33660 177000 75640 57640 20130 20480 194200 38220 94620 16370 33710 19320 72760 23960 28760 51130 53210 34470 98560 27840 27920 42580 50460 39540 107400 42060 107600 44180 50310 29200 32840 53230 43600 36330 141400 53810 24010 69680 78530 21620 34580 79780 107900 45220 110300 46390 20220 79580 5358 52880 26260 30910 47230 74840 89610 72120 51810 57970 100700 47980 29250 53800 73890 71230 21320 66960 15360 77200 29060 24620 26110 93840 39380 29020 41700 35400 11830 14250 96380 110900 31470 32560 38440 99420 30030 39230 190000 6845 97760 52050 73530 46110 39250 23720 52610 36690 98120 24530 27990 45270 28820 131200 41130 30470 46360 39510 49070 36860 54990 82560 61560 102900 35930 52680 67300 46170 30840 30070 32510 103900 72050 88690 40860 35290 100100 31420 73510 49250 68510 73850 80900 27390 29680 39600 63560 45450 41970 29530 45010 32700 62790 43350 43760 19010 106800 85630 37850 29630 36870 43870 118400 93950 90420 117400 77650 48710 35290 42070 46780 26360 39870 49990 14850 36120 38860 29220 69140 34610 50470 68570 117000 152200 40430 51720 113600 36550 59900 89410 33540 35390 37870 38570 58760 36610 31250 65770
2022-05-26 72070 80090 19660 31770 41050 36590 24770 49260 42890 43250 67910 26390 69530 126700 90150 25200 66340 58480 39930 60930 64720 81970 347400 35810 56470 49820 26620 95220 21100 135400 43140 173500 49680 39230 102300 26710 40840 96340 168900 40230 109300 33880 32730 38030 33050 66560 51340 67480 44050 72620 34840 47580 102800 36730 47860 30910 98800 61900 62010 37230 53080 131000 121300 34280 35660 32090 41580 20200 65600 7942 26410 23440 26990 159800 24130 184100 112200 16850 40870 124800 51720 38280 40440 28260 24610 87060 20100 108600 107300 35570 109500 44970 53700 119600 49340 27310 42680 43860 37510 50520 38260 37240 29290 38870 107300 41590 69120 32990 45980 14720 49490 97090 44340 28310 37870 42670 62080 36500 31290 128900 34320 24130 26320 70430 40940 42990 27370 36970 31150 90890 47350 90690 49570 26980 63790 30990 83640 32600 53250 82040 33370 34050 29760 39680 90060 53190 37790 29920 69300 101700 37370 45200 95190 57100 29190 29820 45260 14800 40570 74790 45040 35540 44590 90840 60260 139300 60140 112500 46960 276900 120900 30630 96420 35370 33680 177100 75670 57680 20140 20500 194300 38240 94660 16380 33730 19320 72790 23980 28780 51160 53240 34500 98610 27850 27940 42580 50480 39570 107500 42090 107600 44180 50350 29220 32850 53260 43620 36350 141500 53830 24020 69720 78580 21630 34600 79820 107900 45240 110300 46410 20230 79610 5364 52910 26270 30920 47280 74890 89640 72170 51830 58010 100800 48000 29270 53830 73920 71230 21330 67000 15370 77230 29080 24630 26130 93890 39390 29040 41720 35420 11830 14250 96420 111000 31480 32590 38460 99470 30040 39250 190100 6858 97830 52070 73570 46140 39270 23730 52650 36700 98180 24550 28010 45300 28830 131200 41160 30490 46380 39520 49090 36880 55010 82610 61590 103000 35950 52710 67340 46200 30860 30090 32530 103900 72080 88740 40880 35310 100100 31430 73540 49280 68520 73900 80940 27410 29700 39620 63600 45480 42000 29540 45040 32720 62820 43370 43780 19020 106900 85670 37870 29640 36870 43900 118500 93990 90460 117500 77680 48730 35320 42090 46800 26370 39880 50020 14860 36140 38880 29240 69190 34630 50500 68600 117000 152300 40450 51750 113600 36570 59930 89450 33560 35410 37870 38590 58790 36630 31260 65810
2022-05-27 72120 80160 19670 31790 41070 36620 24780 49290 42910 43270 67940 26400 69560 126800 90190 25210 66380 58510 39940 60960 64750 82000 347600 35830 56480 49840 26630 95260 21110 135400 43170 173500 49710 39250 102400 26730 40840 96390 169000 40260 109300 33900 32750 38050 33060 66590 51340 67510 44080 72660 34850 47600 102800 36750 47860 30920 98850 61930 62050 37250 53120 131100 121400 34300 35680 32120 41590 20210 65640 7947 26410 23450 27000 159900 24140 184200 112200 16860 40900 124800 51750 38300 40460 28270 24610 87100 20110 108700 107300 35590 109600 45000 53730 119700 49390 27330 42700 43880 37530 50550 38280 37260 29300 38900 107400 41610 69160 33010 46010 14730 49520 97130 44360 28330 37890 42690 62120 36520 31300 129000 34340 24140 26330 70460 40960 43010 27380 36990 31170 90920 47370 90730 49600 26990 63820 31010 83680 32610 53280 82080 33390 34070 29780 39710 90100 53230 37810 29930 69370 101700 37380 45240 95230 57130 29200 29840 45290 14800 40580 74820 45060 35560 44610 90880 60290 139400 60160 112600 46990 277000 121000 30650 96460 35390 33700 177100 75700 57710 20150 20510 194300 38260 94700 16390 33750 19320 72820 23990 28800 51190 53270 34520 98660 27870 27970 42580 50520 39590 107500 42110 107700 44190 50380 29230 32870 53280 43640 36380 141500 53860 24030 69760 78620 21640 34620 79850 108000 45270 110400 46430 20240 79630 5370 52940 26270 30930 47320 74920 89680 72210 51850 58030 100800 48030 29280 53860 73970 71240 21340 67030 15380 77260 29090 24630 26150 93930 39420 29050 41740 35440 11840 14260 96460 111000 31500 32610 38480 99510 30060 39270 190200 6869 97900 52100 73610 46170 39300 23750 52690 36720 98230 24560 28020 45330 28860 131300 41190 30500 46400 39540 49120 36900 55030 82660 61620 103000 35970 52740 67380 46230 30880 30100 32560 104000 72120 88780 40900 35340 100200 31450 73580 49310 68520 73950 80970 27420 29710 39650 63630 45510 42020 29550 45060 32740 62850 43390 43800 19030 106900 85700 37890 29660 36870 43930 118500 94030 90500 117500 77710 48760 35340 42120 46830 26390 39900 50050 14860 36160 38890 29260 69230 34650 50530 68620 117100 152400 40470 51780 113700 36590 59970 89480 33580 35430 37870 38610 58830 36640 31280 65840
2022-05-28 72170 80220 19690 31810 41090 36640 24800 49320 42940 43300 67970 26420 69590 126800 90220 25230 66410 58540 39960 60990 64780 82040 347700 35850 56500 49860 26640 95290 21120 135500 43200 173600 49730 39270 102400 26750 40840 96440 169100 40290 109400 33910 32760 38070 33070 66610 51340 67530 44100 72690 34870 47630 102800 36770 47860 30930 98890 61950 62080 37280 53150 131100 121500 34320 35710 32140 41610 20230 65680 7955 26410 23460 27010 159900 24160 184300 112300 16870 40920 124900 51770 38320 40480 28290 24610 87140 20120 108700 107400 35610 109600 45030 53750 119700 49430 27350 42730 43910 37550 50570 38300 37280 29310 38920 107400 41640 69200 33020 46040 14740 49540 97170 44380 28340 37910 42710 62160 36550 31310 129000 34360 24160 26340 70490 40980 43030 27400 37000 31180 90960 47400 90780 49620 27010 63850 31020 83720 32630 53310 82130 33410 34090 29790 39740 90140 53270 37830 29940 69440 101800 37400 45270 95280 57170 29210 29860 45310 14800 40610 74850 45070 35580 44640 90920 60320 139500 60180 112600 47020 277000 121000 30660 96510 35410 33720 177200 75730 57740 20160 20520 194400 38280 94750 16400 33760 19320 72850 24000 28810 51220 53290 34540 98710 27880 28000 42590 50550 39610 107600 42130 107700 44190 50420 29240 32890 53300 43660 36400 141600 53880 24040 69800 78660 21650 34630 79890 108000 45300 110400 46460 20250 79660 5377 52970 26270 30940 47360 74960 89720 72260 51870 58060 100800 48050 29300 53890 74000 71240 21340 67070 15380 77290 29110 24640 26170 93970 39440 29060 41760 35460 11850 14260 96480 111100 31510 32630 38500 99540 30080 39290 190300 6879 97970 52120 73640 46200 39330 23760 52730 36740 98280 24580 28040 45350 28870 131400 41210 30520 46430 39550 49150 36910 55050 82700 61660 103100 35980 52770 67410 46260 30890 30120 32580 104000 72150 88810 40930 35360 100200 31470 73620 49340 68520 73990 81000 27430 29730 39670 63660 45540 42050 29570 45090 32750 62880 43410 43820 19040 107000 85730 37910 29680 36870 43960 118500 94060 90530 117600 77750 48790 35360 42150 46850 26400 39930 50070 14870 36180 38910 29280 69280 34670 50560 68650 117100 152400 40490 51810 113700 36620 60010 89520 33600 35440 37870 38630 58860 36660 31300 65880
2022-05-29 72220 80290 19700 31830 41120 36670 24820 49360 42960 43330 68010 26430 69620 126900 90260 25240 66440 58580 39980 61020 64820 82090 347800 35870 56520 49880 26650 95330 21130 135600 43240 173600 49760 39290 102500 26760 40840 96490 169200 40320 109400 33930 32780 38090 33080 66640 51350 67560 44140 72730 34890 47650 102900 36790 47870 30950 98950 61980 62110 37300 53190 131200 121500 34340 35730 32160 41620 20240 65720 7962 26420 23470 27020 160000 24180 184400 112300 16880 40950 125000 51800 38340 40500 28300 24610 87190 20130 108800 107500 35640 109700 45070 53780 119800 49490 27370 42750 43950 37580 50600 38330 37300 29330 38940 107500 41660 69250 33040 46070 14750 49560 97210 44400 28350 37930 42730 62200 36580 31330 129100 34380 24180 26350 70520 41000 43050 27420 37020 31200 91010 47430 90820 49650 27030 63880 31040 83750 32650 53340 82170 33430 34110 29810 39760 90180 53310 37850 29960 69500 101900 37420 45310 95330 57210 29220 29880 45330 14810 40630 74890 45090 35610 44660 90960 60350 139500 60200 112700 47040 277100 121000 30680 96560 35420 33740 177300 75760 57780 20170 20540 194500 38300 94790 16410 33780 19330 72880 24010 28830 51250 53320 34560 98760 27900 28030 42590 50580 39630 107600 42150 107700 44190 50460 29260 32900 53320 43680 36430 141700 53910 24050 69840 78700 21660 34650 79930 108100 45340 110400 46480 20260 79680 5384 53010 26270 30950 47400 75000 89760 72310 51880 58090 100900 48070 29320 53920 74040 71250 21350 67110 15390 77310 29120 24650 26180 94010 39460 29080 41790 35490 11850 14270 96520 111100 31530 32650 38530 99590 30090 39320 190400 6889 98040 52140 73670 46230 39360 23780 52770 36760 98340 24590 28050 45380 28890 131500 41240 30530 46460 39560 49180 36930 55070 82750 61690 103100 36000 52800 67440 46290 30910 30130 32610 104100 72190 88860 40960 35380 100300 31480 73660 49370 68520 74040 81040 27440 29750 39690 63690 45570 42070 29590 45120 32770 62910 43440 43840 19050 107000 85760 37930 29700 36880 43980 118600 94100 90570 117600 77780 48820 35370 42170 46880 26420 39950 50100 14880 36190 38930 29290 69340 34690 50600 68680 117200 152500 40510 51850 113800 36640 60040 89550 33620 35470 37880 38660 58900 36670 31320 65920
2022-05-30 72300 80360 19720 31840 41150 36700 24840 49400 42980 43360 68050 26440 69650 127000 90290 25260 66480 58620 40010 61060 64860 82140 347900 35890 56540 49910 26670 95370 21140 135700 43270 173700 49790 39310 102500 26780 40850 96550 169200 40350 109500 33950 32800 38110 33090 66680 51350 67590 44180 72790 34910 47690 102900 36810 47870 30970 99010 62010 62150 37320 53230 131300 121600 34360 35760 32180 41650 20250 65770 7968 26420 23490 27040 160100 24190 184500 112400 16890 40970 125000 51840 38360 40530 28320 24610 87240 20140 108800 107600 35660 109800 45120 53810 119800 49590 27390 42780 43990 37610 50630 38360 37340 29350 38970 107500 41690 69290 33070 46110 14760 49580 97280 44430 28370 37950 42760 62250 36600 31350 129200 34400 24200 26370 70560 41020 43080 27430 37040 31220 91050 47460 90870 49670 27040 63930 31060 83810 32670 53380 82230 33450 34120 29830 39800 90230 53350 37870 29970 69590 101900 37440 45350 95390 57260 29230 29900 45350 14810 40660 74940 45120 35630 44690 91020 60390 139600 60230 112700 47080 277300 121100 30700 96620 35440 33760 177300 75790 57830 20190 20560 194600 38320 94850 16410 33800 19330 72920 24020 28850 51280 53350 34580 98820 27920 28060 42590 50630 39660 107700 42190 107800 44190 50510 29270 32920 53350 43700 36460 141700 53950 24060 69890 78750 21670 34670 79970 108200 45380 110500 46510 20270 79720 5390 53050 26270 30960 47440 75050 89800 72360 51900 58130 100900 48100 29340 53950 74090 71250 21360 67160 15400 77350 29140 24660 26210 94060 39490 29100 41810 35510 11860 14280 96560 111100 31540 32680 38550 99630 30110 39340 190500 6900 98110 52170 73710 46270 39390 23800 52810 36780 98400 24610 28070 45410 28920 131600 41270 30550 46490 39580 49210 36960 55100 82800 61730 103200 36030 52830 67480 46310 30930 30150 32630 104100 72220 88910 40990 35410 100300 31500 73700 49410 68530 74090 81080 27460 29770 39720 63730 45610 42100 29610 45150 32790 62950 43470 43860 19060 107100 85810 37960 29730 36880 44020 118700 94140 90620 117700 77830 48860 35400 42200 46910 26430 39970 50140 14880 36210 38960 29310 69400 34710 50640 68710 117200 152600 40530 51880 113900 36670 60090 89600 33650 35490 37880 38680 58940 36690 31340 65960
2022-05-31 72350 80440 19730 31860 41170 36730 24860 49430 43000 43390 68090 26460 69690 127100 90340 25270 66520 58660 40030 61090 64900 82180 348100 35910 56550 49930 26680 95410 21150 135800 43310 173800 49820 39330 102600 26800 40850 96610 169300 40380 109600 33970 32830 38140 33100 66710 51350 67620 44210 72840 34930 47720 102900 36830 47870 30990 99070 62040 62190 37350 53270 131400 121600 34390 35790 32210 41670 20270 65810 7976 26420 23500 27050 160200 24210 184600 112400 16900 41000 125100 51870 38380 40550 28340 24610 87300 20150 108900 107600 35690 109800 45160 53840 119900 49620 27410 42810 44020 37640 50670 38380 37360 29360 39000 107600 41710 69350 33090 46140 14770 49610 97330 44450 28390 37970 42780 62310 36630 31360 129300 34430 24220 26380 70600 41040 43100 27450 37060 31240 91110 47490 90930 49700 27060 63970 31080 83860 32690 53410 82290 33470 34140 29850 39820 90290 53390 37900 29990 69670 102000 37460 45390 95440 57310 29240 29930 45380 14810 40680 74980 45140 35650 44720 91060 60430 139700 60250 112800 47110 277400 121100 30720 96680 35470 33780 177400 75830 57870 20200 20580 194700 38340 94910 16420 33820 19330 72970 24040 28870 51320 53380 34610 98880 27940 28090 42590 50660 39680 107700 42220 107800 44190 50550 29290 32940 53380 43730 36480 141800 53980 24080 69930 78800 21680 34690 80020 108200 45410 110500 46540 20280 79750 5398 53080 26270 30980 47480 75090 89850 72420 51920 58160 101000 48120 29350 53990 74150 71250 21370 67200 15410 77380 29150 24670 26230 94120 39520 29120 41840 35540 11870 14290 96610 111200 31560 32710 38570 99680 30120 39360 190600 6911 98180 52200 73750 46310 39430 23810 52860 36800 98460 24630 28090 45440 28940 131700 41300 30560 46510 39600 49240 36980 55130 82850 61770 103300 36050 52870 67510 46340 30940 30170 32660 104200 72260 88960 41020 35430 100300 31520 73750 49440 68530 74140 81110 27470 29800 39740 63770 45640 42130 29630 45180 32810 62990 43500 43880 19070 107200 85850 37980 29750 36880 44050 118700 94190 90670 117800 77870 48890 35420 42230 46940 26450 40000 50170 14890 36240 38980 29340 69450 34730 50670 68730 117300 152700 40550 51910 113900 36700 60130 89640 33670 35510 37880 38710 58980 36710 31360 66020

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.