COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-05-29 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-05-29

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-05-29

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusArgyll and ButeArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFifeFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMorayNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-232022-03-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-03-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-05-172022-02-062022-03-222022-04-062022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-02-062022-02-062022-03-222022-05-122022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-05-172022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-282022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-262022-02-062022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-05-042022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-04-192022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-05-04
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 1126 1275 1525 780 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 134 398 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 266 253 17521 1550 3317 165 97 205 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 153 2002 167 195 234 273 132 1418 1362 1222 433 2422 2091 214 270 562 4793 1173 962 949 1524 3676 684 302 56 774 71 3960 513 7900 4326 70 1426 372 1559 1550 131 862 3466 481 4767 2335 1159 307 2036 1878 312 290 663 1048 1254 885 1468 1093 1560 891 1505 441 158 1625 976 1274 71 1353 3625 1652 982 152 1007 2291 930 917 6120 1022 779 105 2871 147 1935 1464 848 1510 117 3360 1261 3318 173 120 194 1115 3254 1188 224 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 287 1188 1044 2486 274 131 1158 3872 1474 1689 886 1209 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 274 2021 423 185 4514 1732 837 234 803 3519 136 1238 9205 172 1963 580 540 462 146 3625 516 696 2554 147 650 1251 2802 1347 3381 825 1495 1263 162 4887 167 230 1531 659 963 1941 1111 180 3559 220 131 1868 297 835 131 2965 442 1403 274 1790 56 4269 264 210 57 2223 3085 535 331 2466 197 234 2322 108 1632 1804 60 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 290 142 892 158 145 51 75 4748 5886 188 1365 1073 4438 126 1175 933 632 530 2347 2862 1130 1408 87 1599 147 2982 170 863 1470 162 4031 1059 875 1101 128 1007 129 2510 3022 2379 330 1253 1583 227 196 134 992 1278 3842 3631 293 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 2290 3757 94 844 990 249 1394 1055 812 237 1025 2766 1234 1351 431 5344 3306 1034 878 1143 361 250 3811 4283 279 217 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 808 1620 922 2543 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 241 139 796 1077 2155 132 129 283
Days since peak 112 112 125 125 125 112 112 125 125 125 125 125 67 68 125 125 125 125 125 125 68 68 125 125 125 65 67 61 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 68 125 68 66 68 68 67 125 125 125 68 125 125 68 68 68 125 125 125 125 125 12 112 68 53 125 67 125 125 125 125 63 125 68 125 125 68 125 125 125 125 125 125 67 112 112 68 17 125 125 112 125 125 125 112 125 112 68 67 125 125 125 68 125 125 125 125 67 125 112 125 125 112 125 125 68 125 67 12 125 125 125 66 125 125 125 68 67 68 125 125 125 68 125 125 125 125 125 125 68 125 125 112 68 65 125 125 125 125 112 125 125 125 125 125 125 66 125 68 68 125 125 68 68 125 125 65 125 125 66 125 125 125 68 67 125 125 125 125 67 125 125 125 112 125 125 112 125 68 125 67 68 112 125 125 125 125 68 96 68 68 125 68 125 68 125 68 125 68 125 62 125 112 68 64 112 125 68 68 125 68 67 125 67 125 96 67 125 125 125 125 125 125 68 68 125 68 68 66 68 125 125 25 112 125 125 68 125 40 112 68 125 125 125 112 68 125 63 125 68 125 125 68 112 125 125 125 68 125 64 125 125 125 68 125 125 65 66 67 125 112 125 125 64 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 67 125 125 67 125 125 125 68 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 67 64 125 125 68 68 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 96 125 125 112 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 67 68 125 125 125 68 68 25
Last total 72140 80181 19665 31782 41048 36607 24784 49264 42904 43256 67933 26408 69521 126727 90136 25193 66338 58498 39925 60958 64723 81990 347456 35808 56469 49826 26622 95219 21093 135373 43134 173470 49690 39237 102375 26715 96389 168972 40240 109349 33910 32740 38049 33055 66567 67488 44130 72686 34826 47597 36755 30903 98834 61925 62002 37247 53098 131072 121381 34286 35676 32112 41590 183741 20209 65594 7980 23441 26984 159879 24134 184199 112177 16859 40872 124825 51738 38290 40438 28268 87061 20109 108636 107338 35578 109511 44979 53734 119662 49314 27308 42725 43899 37533 50534 38256 37276 29299 38914 107286 41577 69143 32985 46018 14724 49514 97103 44327 28321 37882 42698 62121 36513 31289 128957 34319 24125 26331 70461 40947 239111 43000 27387 36966 31150 90920 47359 90717 49577 26988 63838 31003 83682 32602 53256 82067 33387 34055 29780 39692 90072 53205 37789 29913 69464 101753 37365 45205 95225 57117 29193 29837 45282 40583 74839 45097 35539 44594 90846 60288 139352 60141 112551 46983 276940 120923 30647 96459 35363 33686 177093 75692 57684 20139 20495 194336 38244 94687 16389 33750 72828 23992 28790 51189 53239 34555 98662 27877 28001 50530 39588 107528 42097 107644 50398 29229 32845 53262 43645 36352 141539 53835 24033 69725 78601 21636 34607 79816 107999 45244 110366 46418 20228 79618 5367 52942 30926 47331 74891 89690 72215 51848 58032 100767 48012 29261 53828 73973 21330 67035 15367 77247 29080 24631 26134 93918 39394 29039 41743 35430 11834 14259 96441 110962 31485 32598 38484 99518 30043 39265 190225 6865 97856 52086 73591 46185 39305 23733 52679 36716 98189 24555 28000 45298 28863 131302 41195 30496 46406 39533 49126 36876 55025 82641 61618 103015 35953 52736 67324 46204 30868 30096 32564 103968 72096 88738 40883 35332 100164 31450 73570 49263 73934 80938 27410 29703 39625 63607 45481 42003 29550 45043 32743 62809 43377 43796 19030 106904 85703 37896 29650 43924 118448 94020 90476 117523 77699 48770 35324 42105 46822 26383 39904 50046 14876 36182 38889 29229 69221 34647 50507 68689 117039 152338 40485 51785 113649 36590 59962 89427 33564 35426 38592 58824 36659 31267 65819
Last daily increment 31 36 8 2 7 4 6 14 9 5 15 13 11 35 9 5 5 21 5 13 11 26 51 7 7 6 4 13 3 25 9 22 8 12 18 5 26 39 11 33 12 8 13 7 10 10 13 23 7 8 9 3 13 12 11 17 13 35 25 8 20 13 10 72 9 20 6 3 4 49 7 46 24 8 11 19 11 7 3 9 15 6 12 30 6 15 13 12 21 16 2 14 10 16 16 8 8 8 15 20 9 14 5 23 3 5 16 7 3 13 11 21 13 6 44 8 7 5 19 5 60 10 13 5 7 20 12 20 13 7 17 10 26 6 9 20 14 10 10 16 19 5 6 4 45 35 6 11 18 19 6 10 13 13 23 23 7 9 14 14 17 7 20 11 45 18 8 28 6 13 41 17 16 5 5 38 2 19 7 5 14 14 6 12 9 16 27 11 18 17 19 23 8 11 19 14 6 10 10 8 26 10 7 18 11 11 8 23 42 13 22 9 3 7 1 15 3 26 17 25 25 9 14 19 12 0 12 20 2 32 5 18 4 3 2 22 5 7 10 6 3 2 22 9 5 7 8 23 4 13 41 6 15 9 21 24 12 8 24 8 26 6 1 7 17 25 14 9 14 7 11 7 9 23 8 26 8 14 15 9 1 7 11 18 10 19 11 12 24 9 24 4 21 17 6 7 12 13 12 6 10 17 12 11 12 15 11 21 13 8 13 20 14 17 19 30 16 11 4 12 12 5 7 21 8 7 11 10 22 15 10 25 16 36 8 17 23 18 22 12 4 13 7 20 7 7 25
Last week 207 268 33 50 56 90 68 79 56 59 116 52 62 195 71 25 46 98 42 107 91 107 324 35 47 61 36 86 24 187 70 170 63 54 135 33 181 229 66 197 64 50 68 37 75 65 149 163 23 77 68 28 149 84 60 68 90 191 170 52 84 65 54 591 32 88 62 25 26 306 43 272 133 28 48 173 67 58 41 53 127 31 97 190 56 99 104 105 201 83 37 100 128 83 85 55 109 50 96 151 46 109 38 109 28 78 115 44 40 61 79 147 74 40 291 35 33 41 109 53 536 61 55 39 41 124 74 140 59 41 135 48 145 44 67 134 69 41 57 78 113 98 44 32 354 206 48 83 147 116 30 66 67 67 152 108 47 65 107 105 131 57 166 91 359 109 60 154 40 54 218 97 104 22 35 246 41 126 24 57 110 47 48 85 54 130 154 57 122 104 70 171 64 102 142 42 36 68 73 47 268 62 52 98 114 30 51 81 227 69 148 58 20 77 17 126 42 162 95 141 159 62 106 106 64 26 65 145 28 143 16 77 32 23 38 138 42 40 75 51 18 24 122 83 42 78 73 148 37 59 287 37 174 65 103 110 100 29 114 49 132 51 22 68 70 257 96 49 88 53 104 32 78 153 94 166 46 92 56 65 44 39 82 143 85 98 66 60 144 62 102 42 125 79 40 50 54 88 60 76 42 76 59 57 68 63 38 132 124 67 49 92 111 120 105 191 96 103 52 66 66 40 65 90 35 86 57 32 169 70 75 165 116 239 90 101 171 69 114 58 49 63 54 113 60 43 109
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-09-012021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-202022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-06-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-152022-01-24 --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152022-02-062021-09-012022-01-242022-02-062021-07-142022-01-242021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-132022-01-24 -- --2021-10-122021-07-15 -- --2022-01-242021-08-242021-06-292022-01-242022-02-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-15 --2022-01-24 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132022-01-242021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-09-062021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-122022-01-242022-02-222021-07-15 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-172021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-152021-10-142021-09-022022-01-242022-01-242021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-162022-01-242022-01-242021-07-112021-07-162022-01-242021-07-29 --2022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-182021-07-132021-10-19 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-152021-07-12 --2022-01-242021-07-112022-01-242022-01-242021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 --2022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242021-10-182022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-08-032022-01-242021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-06-29 --2022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-08-312022-01-242021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-09-012021-08-17 --2022-01-242021-07-162022-01-24 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-152022-01-24 -- --2022-01-242021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-10-182021-07-152022-01-24 --2021-08-172022-01-242021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-172021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 97 127 120 57 3477 4581 276 70 139 152 144 287 2285 3307 943 127 2250 962 4696 293 107 478 103 176 68 218 621 4 258 94 72 1302 74 2935 2895 1143 2214 1302 115 101 3005 170 1033 1466 3801 243 82 73 125 121 7754 69 1939 121 114 995 708 607 376 551 101 5019 122 140 1634 64 400 4687 137 188 4677 1747 135 183 122 100 65 157 3182 1563 61 417 105 58 1189 128 185 88 421 67 56 884 274 1519 6944 95 63 1137 163 229 2105 817 2104 152 61 1498 65 146 54 151 1707 82 90 203 3914 1327 84 75 136 161 189 139 71 3609 6117 3336 301 117 11029 6320 51 213 1176 99 3848 120 41 47 10177 1515 169 40 164 503 101 274 115 49 31 1329 384 1519 5335 164 123 94 256 1060 1294 1824 525 291 2931 77 1179 3811 87 5264 158 839 255 1562 1808 118 2613 2589 2199 4529 297 1065 114 289 776 140 67 213 75 73 49 4307 1311 1297 1206 259 344 253 951 78 123 857 96 8405 3240 277 202 118 768 1218 345 587 763 470 128 68 77 1609 106 1377 303 200 152 4073 70 131 3012 1783 1077 91 243 339 3812 201 428 57 145 101 329 219 968 143 2555 116 92 150 1551 78 105 131 106 226 286 64 79 5038 4407 157 313 2987 1563 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 4157 1188 63 117 1437 1060 2087
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 28 49 59 18 51 163 103 28 53 51 54 99 87 80 406 33 47 21 45 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 55 31 43 43 97 122 31 22 21 143 46 94 98 164 119 31 31 54 35 154 19 107 20 25 29 227 190 143 19 39 163 49 43 40 32 142 85 56 26 150 30 49 49 57 36 30 35 136 49 25 19 38 23 45 44 80 41 199 29 19 22 75 49 162 21 30 49 76 57 45 39 89 75 27 85 32 32 18 70 81 41 37 59 115 39 39 24 26 58 51 49 30 100 95 49 74 44 269 77 20 66 41 43 66 51 17 14 129 31 77 11 75 58 36 58 32 24 2 42 120 35 103 54 61 39 68 52 157 44 56 115 99 22 32 136 42 108 50 15 87 96 9 19 148 106 86 84 49 38 51 68 15 61 17 69 20 21 17 66 54 55 59 20 21 104 20 28 40 35 33 182 149 91 64 40 28 46 58 48 35 149 59 28 35 30 42 33 55 94 56 161 34 49 48 60 33 38 118 78 78 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 22 34 70 35 37 63 74 33 36 51 41 72 125 31 36 79 68 70 94 69 88 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 58 59 31 52 36 37 34

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-30 to 2022-06-05

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusArgyll and ButeArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFifeFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMorayNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-05-29 72140 80181 19665 31782 41048 36607 24784 49264 42904 43256 67933 26408 69521 126727 90136 25193 66338 58498 39925 60958 64723 81990 347456 35808 56469 49826 26622 95219 21093 135373 43134 173470 49690 39237 102375 26715 96389 168972 40240 109349 33910 32740 38049 33055 66567 67488 44130 72686 34826 47597 36755 30903 98834 61925 62002 37247 53098 131072 121381 34286 35676 32112 41590 183741 20209 65594 7980 23441 26984 159879 24134 184199 112177 16859 40872 124825 51738 38290 40438 28268 87061 20109 108636 107338 35578 109511 44979 53734 119662 49314 27308 42725 43899 37533 50534 38256 37276 29299 38914 107286 41577 69143 32985 46018 14724 49514 97103 44327 28321 37882 42698 62121 36513 31289 128957 34319 24125 26331 70461 40947 239111 43000 27387 36966 31150 90920 47359 90717 49577 26988 63838 31003 83682 32602 53256 82067 33387 34055 29780 39692 90072 53205 37789 29913 69464 101753 37365 45205 95225 57117 29193 29837 45282 40583 74839 45097 35539 44594 90846 60288 139352 60141 112551 46983 276940 120923 30647 96459 35363 33686 177093 75692 57684 20139 20495 194336 38244 94687 16389 33750 72828 23992 28790 51189 53239 34555 98662 27877 28001 50530 39588 107528 42097 107644 50398 29229 32845 53262 43645 36352 141539 53835 24033 69725 78601 21636 34607 79816 107999 45244 110366 46418 20228 79618 5367 52942 30926 47331 74891 89690 72215 51848 58032 100767 48012 29261 53828 73973 21330 67035 15367 77247 29080 24631 26134 93918 39394 29039 41743 35430 11834 14259 96441 110962 31485 32598 38484 99518 30043 39265 190225 6865 97856 52086 73591 46185 39305 23733 52679 36716 98189 24555 28000 45298 28863 131302 41195 30496 46406 39533 49126 36876 55025 82641 61618 103015 35953 52736 67324 46204 30868 30096 32564 103968 72096 88738 40883 35332 100164 31450 73570 49263 73934 80938 27410 29703 39625 63607 45481 42003 29550 45043 32743 62809 43377 43796 19030 106904 85703 37896 29650 43924 118448 94020 90476 117523 77699 48770 35324 42105 46822 26383 39904 50046 14876 36182 38889 29229 69221 34647 50507 68689 117039 152338 40485 51785 113649 36590 59962 89427 33564 35426 38592 58824 36659 31267 65819
2022-05-30 72190 80250 19680 31790 41060 36640 24810 49290 42920 43270 67960 26420 69540 126800 90160 25200 66350 58520 39940 60980 64750 82010 347600 35820 56480 49840 26630 95250 21100 135400 43150 173500 49710 39250 102400 26730 96420 169000 40260 109400 33920 32750 38060 33070 66590 67500 44160 72740 34830 47620 36770 30910 98870 61940 62020 37260 53120 131100 121400 34300 35690 32130 41600 183800 20220 65620 7980 23450 26990 159900 24140 184300 112200 16870 40890 124900 51750 38300 40460 28280 87090 20110 108700 107400 35590 109500 45030 53770 119700 49390 27320 42740 43920 37540 50570 38270 37310 29310 38940 107300 41590 69170 33000 46040 14730 49530 97160 44360 28340 37900 42720 62160 36520 31310 129000 34330 24140 26340 70490 40960 239300 43010 27400 36980 31160 90960 47390 90750 49590 27000 63870 31010 83730 32610 53280 82100 33400 34070 29790 39710 90100 53230 37800 29920 69500 101800 37380 45230 95260 57130 29200 29850 45300 40590 74870 45120 35550 44610 90870 60320 139400 60160 112600 47000 277000 121000 30660 96520 35370 33700 177100 75720 57710 20150 20510 194400 38260 94720 16400 33760 72870 24000 28800 51200 53270 34570 98700 27890 28030 50540 39600 107600 42110 107700 50430 29250 32860 53270 43670 36370 141600 53850 24040 69760 78630 21640 34620 79850 108000 45260 110400 46430 20230 79640 5371 52970 30940 47370 74940 89730 72250 51860 58070 100800 48030 29270 53850 74030 21340 67060 15370 77270 29090 24640 26150 93960 39410 29050 41770 35440 11840 14260 96470 111000 31500 32620 38500 99550 30050 39280 190300 6874 97900 52100 73620 46210 39330 23740 52700 36730 98220 24570 28010 45320 28880 131400 41210 30510 46430 39550 49150 36890 55040 82680 61640 103100 35970 52760 67340 46220 30880 30110 32590 104000 72120 88800 40900 35340 100200 31460 73590 49270 73960 80960 27420 29720 39640 63630 45490 42020 29560 45060 32760 62830 43380 43810 19040 106900 85740 37910 29660 43940 118500 94050 90530 117600 77720 48790 35340 42130 46840 26390 39930 50060 14880 36200 38900 29240 69280 34670 50540 68730 117100 152400 40500 51810 113700 36610 59990 89450 33580 35450 38600 58840 36670 31280 65840
2022-05-31 72270 80330 19710 31820 41090 36680 24830 49330 42950 43290 68010 26430 69580 126900 90220 25220 66370 58550 39960 61020 64780 82040 347800 35830 56500 49880 26650 95290 21120 135500 43190 173600 49740 39280 102500 26750 96460 169100 40280 109400 33940 32780 38090 33080 66630 67520 44180 72780 34840 47650 36790 30920 98920 61970 62040 37290 53160 131100 121500 34310 35720 32150 41620 183900 20240 65670 7987 23460 27010 160000 24160 184400 112300 16880 40910 125000 51780 38330 40470 28300 87160 20120 108700 107400 35610 109600 45080 53800 119800 49410 27330 42760 43960 37560 50600 38310 37340 29330 38970 107300 41620 69200 33020 46080 14740 49560 97200 44380 28360 37940 42760 62190 36540 31330 129200 34360 24160 26350 70530 40980 239600 43030 27410 36990 31180 91010 47420 90810 49630 27010 63910 31020 83770 32620 53320 82150 33420 34090 29800 39740 90160 53280 37830 29950 69570 101800 37410 45270 95310 57150 29220 29870 45320 40620 74910 45140 35570 44650 90900 60350 139500 60200 112700 47040 277100 121000 30670 96570 35390 33730 177200 75750 57750 20160 20530 194500 38290 94770 16400 33780 72920 24020 28820 51220 53320 34600 98750 27900 28050 50560 39610 107600 42150 107700 50470 29270 32880 53300 43690 36380 141700 53870 24060 69820 78700 21650 34640 79900 108100 45280 110400 46470 20240 79690 5378 53010 30950 47420 74980 89780 72310 51880 58100 100800 48070 29290 53880 74100 21350 67110 15390 77310 29100 24650 26160 94030 39420 29070 41790 35470 11850 14270 96530 111100 31520 32650 38520 99600 30080 39300 190400 6890 97970 52130 73660 46230 39370 23760 52750 36740 98290 24590 28030 45350 28900 131400 41240 30530 46470 39560 49180 36910 55080 82720 61680 103100 35990 52790 67370 46250 30900 30120 32610 104100 72170 88850 40940 35360 100200 31480 73620 49300 74000 81010 27430 29740 39670 63660 45510 42050 29570 45090 32770 62870 43390 43840 19050 107000 85800 37930 29670 43980 118500 94090 90570 117600 77770 48830 35360 42160 46870 26410 39960 50090 14890 36230 38930 29250 69340 34690 50570 68750 117100 152400 40530 51840 113800 36630 60020 89510 33600 35470 38630 58870 36690 31300 65890
2022-06-01 72330 80410 19730 31840 41120 36710 24860 49360 42970 43310 68050 26450 69610 126900 90270 25240 66390 58590 39970 61050 64820 82070 347900 35840 56510 49910 26660 95330 21130 135500 43230 173600 49770 39300 102500 26760 96490 169200 40310 109400 33950 32800 38110 33100 66670 67540 44220 72810 34860 47670 36810 30930 98970 61990 62070 37310 53190 131200 121600 34320 35740 32170 41640 184000 20250 65720 7994 23470 27020 160100 24180 184500 112300 16890 40940 125000 51800 38350 40490 28310 87210 20130 108800 107500 35640 109600 45110 53830 119800 49450 27340 42780 43990 37570 50630 38340 37370 29340 38990 107400 41640 69240 33040 46100 14760 49580 97240 44400 28370 37960 42800 62220 36560 31350 129300 34380 24180 26360 70560 41000 239700 43050 27430 37010 31200 91050 47450 90860 49660 27030 63940 31040 83810 32630 53350 82200 33440 34110 29820 39770 90210 53320 37850 29970 69650 101900 37430 45310 95360 57170 29230 29890 45340 40640 74940 45160 35590 44680 90930 60380 139600 60230 112700 47070 277300 121000 30690 96620 35400 33750 177300 75780 57790 20170 20540 194600 38310 94820 16410 33790 72950 24030 28840 51240 53350 34620 98800 27920 28070 50580 39630 107700 42180 107700 50510 29300 32900 53320 43710 36400 141800 53900 24070 69870 78760 21660 34660 79950 108200 45300 110500 46490 20250 79720 5385 53040 30970 47460 75020 89820 72360 51900 58140 100900 48100 29310 53920 74150 21360 67150 15400 77350 29120 24660 26180 94090 39440 29090 41810 35490 11860 14280 96570 111100 31530 32680 38540 99650 30100 39320 190500 6902 98040 52150 73700 46260 39400 23780 52780 36760 98350 24610 28050 45390 28920 131500 41270 30540 46500 39580 49210 36930 55120 82770 61710 103200 36010 52820 67400 46280 30920 30140 32640 104100 72210 88890 40970 35380 100300 31490 73650 49320 74040 81050 27450 29760 39700 63690 45540 42070 29590 45110 32790 62900 43400 43870 19070 107000 85850 37950 29680 44010 118600 94130 90610 117700 77810 48860 35390 42190 46890 26430 39980 50120 14890 36250 38950 29260 69390 34710 50600 68790 117200 152500 40560 51870 113800 36650 60060 89550 33620 35490 38650 58890 36700 31320 65930
2022-06-02 72390 80470 19740 31860 41140 36730 24870 49400 43000 43330 68100 26460 69640 127000 90310 25260 66420 58620 39990 61080 64850 82110 348100 35860 56530 49930 26680 95370 21140 135600 43260 173700 49800 39320 102600 26770 96520 169300 40340 109500 33970 32810 38140 33110 66700 67560 44260 72840 34870 47700 36820 30940 99030 62020 62100 37330 53230 131200 121700 34330 35770 32190 41660 184100 20260 65760 8002 23480 27030 160100 24190 184600 112300 16900 40960 125100 51830 38370 40510 28330 87260 20130 108800 107500 35660 109700 45140 53860 119900 49490 27350 42800 44030 37590 50660 38360 37390 29360 39010 107400 41660 69280 33060 46140 14770 49610 97280 44420 28380 37990 42830 62230 36570 31360 129400 34400 24190 26380 70600 41020 239900 43070 27450 37030 31220 91090 47480 90910 49680 27040 63980 31050 83850 32650 53390 82250 33460 34130 29830 39790 90250 53350 37880 29990 69720 101900 37450 45350 95410 57200 29240 29910 45370 40660 74970 45180 35600 44710 90960 60420 139700 60250 112800 47100 277400 121100 30710 96670 35410 33770 177300 75800 57820 20190 20560 194700 38330 94860 16420 33810 72990 24040 28860 51270 53390 34640 98850 27930 28090 50610 39650 107700 42200 107800 50550 29320 32910 53340 43720 36420 141900 53920 24080 69920 78810 21670 34680 79990 108300 45320 110500 46520 20250 79750 5391 53080 30980 47500 75050 89880 72410 51920 58170 100900 48120 29330 53950 74200 21370 67190 15410 77380 29130 24660 26190 94140 39450 29100 41840 35510 11860 14290 96620 111200 31550 32700 38570 99700 30120 39340 190600 6912 98110 52170 73740 46290 39430 23800 52820 36770 98410 24630 28070 45420 28930 131600 41300 30560 46540 39590 49240 36950 55150 82810 61750 103200 36030 52850 67420 46310 30940 30150 32660 104200 72250 88930 41000 35400 100300 31510 73680 49340 74070 81090 27460 29780 39730 63720 45560 42100 29600 45140 32810 62930 43420 43890 19080 107100 85890 37970 29690 44040 118600 94180 90650 117800 77840 48890 35410 42220 46920 26440 40000 50150 14900 36280 38970 29270 69430 34730 50630 68820 117200 152500 40590 51900 113900 36670 60090 89590 33640 35510 38670 58920 36720 31340 65970
2022-06-03 72450 80540 19760 31870 41170 36760 24890 49430 43020 43360 68140 26470 69670 127100 90350 25270 66440 58660 40010 61120 64880 82150 348200 35870 56540 49960 26690 95410 21150 135700 43290 173700 49820 39350 102600 26790 96550 169400 40360 109500 33980 32830 38160 33120 66730 67590 44290 72870 34880 47730 36840 30950 99080 62050 62130 37360 53260 131200 121700 34350 35790 32220 41680 184200 20280 65800 8008 23490 27050 160200 24210 184600 112400 16910 40990 125200 51850 38390 40530 28350 87310 20140 108900 107600 35680 109700 45170 53890 120000 49500 27370 42830 44060 37610 50690 38390 37410 29380 39030 107500 41680 69310 33080 46170 14780 49640 97330 44440 28400 38020 42860 62260 36590 31380 129500 34420 24210 26390 70630 41040 239900 43080 27460 37040 31240 91130 47510 90960 49710 27060 64020 31070 83890 32660 53420 82300 33480 34140 29850 39820 90300 53390 37900 30000 69790 102000 37470 45380 95460 57220 29250 29930 45390 40680 74990 45210 35620 44750 91000 60450 139700 60280 112800 47130 277500 121100 30730 96720 35430 33790 177400 75830 57860 20190 20580 194800 38350 94910 16430 33820 73030 24060 28880 51290 53420 34670 98910 27940 28110 50660 39670 107800 42230 107800 50590 29340 32930 53360 43730 36440 141900 53950 24090 69970 78860 21690 34700 80030 108300 45350 110500 46550 20260 79780 5398 53110 30990 47540 75090 89930 72460 51940 58210 101000 48150 29340 53980 74260 21380 67230 15420 77410 29150 24670 26210 94200 39470 29120 41860 35530 11870 14300 96660 111200 31560 32730 38590 99740 30140 39370 190700 6922 98170 52190 73780 46320 39450 23810 52860 36790 98460 24650 28080 45440 28950 131700 41330 30580 46570 39610 49280 36960 55180 82860 61780 103300 36050 52880 67440 46340 30960 30170 32680 104200 72280 88970 41030 35430 100400 31530 73720 49360 74120 81120 27470 29790 39750 63750 45580 42120 29620 45160 32830 62960 43440 43920 19090 107100 85940 37980 29700 44080 118700 94220 90690 117800 77880 48930 35430 42250 46950 26460 40020 50180 14910 36300 38990 29280 69490 34750 50660 68840 117200 152600 40620 51930 114000 36690 60130 89640 33670 35530 38690 58950 36740 31350 66010
2022-06-04 72500 80610 19780 31890 41190 36780 24910 49460 43040 43380 68180 26490 69700 127100 90380 25290 66470 58690 40030 61150 64920 82180 348300 35880 56550 49980 26710 95440 21160 135700 43320 173800 49850 39370 102700 26800 96570 169500 40390 109600 34000 32850 38180 33130 66760 67610 44320 72890 34890 47760 36860 30970 99140 62080 62150 37380 53290 131200 121800 34360 35820 32240 41700 184300 20280 65840 8018 23500 27060 160200 24220 184700 112400 16920 41010 125200 51880 38400 40540 28360 87360 20140 108900 107700 35700 109700 45190 53910 120000 49520 27380 42860 44100 37630 50710 38410 37440 29390 39040 107500 41700 69360 33100 46200 14780 49660 97360 44460 28410 38040 42890 62280 36610 31390 129500 34440 24220 26400 70670 41060 239900 43090 27480 37060 31260 91170 47530 91010 49730 27070 64050 31080 83930 32670 53450 82350 33500 34160 29870 39850 90340 53430 37920 30020 69870 102000 37490 45420 95500 57250 29260 29940 45420 40700 75010 45240 35640 44780 91030 60490 139800 60300 112900 47160 277600 121100 30750 96760 35450 33810 177500 75850 57890 20200 20590 194800 38370 94960 16440 33840 73060 24070 28890 51320 53450 34690 98960 27960 28140 50680 39690 107800 42250 107800 50620 29360 32950 53380 43740 36460 142000 53970 24090 70020 78900 21700 34720 80080 108400 45370 110600 46570 20270 79810 5404 53150 31000 47570 75120 89980 72510 51960 58240 101000 48170 29360 54010 74300 21390 67280 15420 77440 29160 24680 26220 94250 39490 29140 41880 35550 11880 14300 96700 111300 31580 32750 38610 99790 30150 39390 190800 6931 98230 52210 73810 46350 39480 23830 52900 36810 98520 24670 28100 45470 28970 131800 41360 30600 46600 39630 49310 36980 55200 82900 61810 103300 36070 52910 67470 46360 30980 30180 32710 104200 72320 89000 41050 35450 100400 31550 73750 49380 74160 81160 27490 29810 39780 63780 45600 42150 29630 45190 32850 62990 43450 43940 19110 107200 85980 38000 29710 44110 118700 94260 90720 117900 77920 48960 35450 42280 46970 26470 40040 50220 14920 36320 39010 29300 69520 34780 50690 68870 117300 152700 40640 51970 114000 36710 60170 89670 33690 35550 38710 58980 36750 31370 66050
2022-06-05 72550 80670 19800 31910 41210 36790 24930 49500 43060 43400 68220 26510 69730 127200 90420 25300 66490 58730 40050 61190 64950 82220 348400 35890 56560 50010 26720 95480 21170 135800 43350 173800 49880 39400 102700 26820 96590 169500 40420 109600 34020 32870 38200 33140 66790 67630 44360 72910 34900 47790 36880 30980 99190 62100 62180 37410 53330 131300 121900 34380 35840 32260 41720 184400 20300 65880 8024 23510 27070 160200 24240 184800 112500 16930 41030 125300 51900 38420 40560 28380 87410 20150 108900 107700 35720 109800 45220 53930 120100 49540 27400 42890 44130 37660 50740 38430 37460 29410 39070 107600 41720 69400 33120 46230 14790 49690 97410 44480 28430 38060 42930 62300 36640 31410 129600 34460 24240 26410 70700 41070 239900 43100 27500 37070 31270 91220 47560 91060 49760 27090 64090 31100 83980 32690 53480 82390 33520 34170 29880 39870 90390 53470 37940 30040 69940 102100 37510 45450 95550 57280 29270 29970 45440 40730 75030 45270 35660 44810 91070 60520 139900 60320 112900 47190 277700 121100 30770 96810 35460 33820 177500 75880 57930 20210 20610 194900 38390 95000 16450 33860 73100 24090 28910 51350 53480 34710 99010 27970 28160 50710 39710 107900 42280 107900 50660 29380 32970 53400 43750 36480 142100 54000 24100 70060 78950 21710 34740 80120 108500 45400 110600 46600 20270 79830 5410 53190 31010 47610 75160 90030 72550 51980 58270 101100 48200 29370 54040 74340 21390 67320 15430 77470 29170 24680 26240 94300 39510 29160 41900 35570 11880 14310 96740 111300 31590 32770 38640 99840 30170 39410 190800 6940 98300 52240 73850 46390 39510 23840 52940 36830 98570 24690 28110 45500 28990 131800 41390 30610 46640 39640 49340 37000 55230 82950 61850 103400 36090 52940 67490 46390 30990 30200 32730 104300 72350 89040 41080 35470 100500 31560 73790 49400 74200 81190 27500 29820 39810 63810 45620 42180 29650 45210 32870 63020 43480 43970 19120 107200 86030 38030 29730 44140 118800 94300 90770 118000 77950 48990 35470 42310 47000 26490 40060 50250 14930 36340 39030 29310 69570 34800 50720 68890 117300 152800 40670 52000 114100 36740 60210 89710 33710 35580 38730 59010 36770 31390 66090

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-30 to 2022-06-05

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusArgyll and ButeArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFifeFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMorayNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-05-29 72140 80181 19665 31782 41048 36607 24784 49264 42904 43256 67933 26408 69521 126727 90136 25193 66338 58498 39925 60958 64723 81990 347456 35808 56469 49826 26622 95219 21093 135373 43134 173470 49690 39237 102375 26715 96389 168972 40240 109349 33910 32740 38049 33055 66567 67488 44130 72686 34826 47597 36755 30903 98834 61925 62002 37247 53098 131072 121381 34286 35676 32112 41590 183741 20209 65594 7980 23441 26984 159879 24134 184199 112177 16859 40872 124825 51738 38290 40438 28268 87061 20109 108636 107338 35578 109511 44979 53734 119662 49314 27308 42725 43899 37533 50534 38256 37276 29299 38914 107286 41577 69143 32985 46018 14724 49514 97103 44327 28321 37882 42698 62121 36513 31289 128957 34319 24125 26331 70461 40947 239111 43000 27387 36966 31150 90920 47359 90717 49577 26988 63838 31003 83682 32602 53256 82067 33387 34055 29780 39692 90072 53205 37789 29913 69464 101753 37365 45205 95225 57117 29193 29837 45282 40583 74839 45097 35539 44594 90846 60288 139352 60141 112551 46983 276940 120923 30647 96459 35363 33686 177093 75692 57684 20139 20495 194336 38244 94687 16389 33750 72828 23992 28790 51189 53239 34555 98662 27877 28001 50530 39588 107528 42097 107644 50398 29229 32845 53262 43645 36352 141539 53835 24033 69725 78601 21636 34607 79816 107999 45244 110366 46418 20228 79618 5367 52942 30926 47331 74891 89690 72215 51848 58032 100767 48012 29261 53828 73973 21330 67035 15367 77247 29080 24631 26134 93918 39394 29039 41743 35430 11834 14259 96441 110962 31485 32598 38484 99518 30043 39265 190225 6865 97856 52086 73591 46185 39305 23733 52679 36716 98189 24555 28000 45298 28863 131302 41195 30496 46406 39533 49126 36876 55025 82641 61618 103015 35953 52736 67324 46204 30868 30096 32564 103968 72096 88738 40883 35332 100164 31450 73570 49263 73934 80938 27410 29703 39625 63607 45481 42003 29550 45043 32743 62809 43377 43796 19030 106904 85703 37896 29650 43924 118448 94020 90476 117523 77699 48770 35324 42105 46822 26383 39904 50046 14876 36182 38889 29229 69221 34647 50507 68689 117039 152338 40485 51785 113649 36590 59962 89427 33564 35426 38592 58824 36659 31267 65819
2022-05-30 72190 80240 19670 31790 41060 36630 24800 49290 42920 43270 67960 26420 69550 126800 90160 25200 66360 58520 39940 60980 64750 82020 347600 35820 56480 49840 26630 95250 21100 135400 43160 173500 49710 39250 102400 26720 96420 169000 40260 109400 33930 32750 38060 33070 66590 67510 44160 72720 34840 47620 36770 30910 98870 61940 62020 37260 53120 131100 121400 34300 35700 32130 41600 184000 20220 65620 7987 23450 26990 159900 24140 184300 112200 16870 40890 124900 51760 38310 40460 28280 87100 20120 108700 107400 35600 109500 45010 53760 119700 49390 27320 42750 43920 37550 50550 38270 37300 29310 38940 107300 41590 69170 33000 46040 14730 49530 97150 44340 28330 37900 42720 62160 36530 31300 129000 34330 24140 26340 70490 40960 239400 43020 27400 36980 31160 90950 47380 90750 49590 27000 63870 31020 83720 32620 53280 82110 33400 34070 29790 39720 90100 53230 37800 29920 69540 101800 37380 45230 95260 57150 29200 29850 45300 40600 74870 45120 35550 44610 90880 60310 139400 60160 112600 47000 277000 121000 30660 96510 35370 33700 177200 75720 57720 20150 20510 194400 38260 94720 16390 33760 72860 24000 28800 51210 53260 34580 98700 27890 28030 50550 39610 107600 42110 107700 50430 29240 32860 53280 43660 36370 141600 53850 24040 69750 78630 21650 34620 79840 108000 45260 110400 46440 20230 79640 5371 52970 30940 47370 74920 89720 72250 51870 58060 100800 48030 29270 53850 74010 21340 67070 15370 77270 29090 24640 26150 93950 39410 29050 41760 35450 11840 14260 96470 111000 31500 32620 38500 99560 30050 39280 190300 6872 97900 52110 73620 46210 39340 23750 52710 36730 98230 24570 28010 45320 28880 131400 41220 30510 46420 39550 49150 36890 55040 82680 61650 103100 35960 52760 67340 46220 30880 30110 32590 104000 72120 88770 40900 35350 100200 31460 73600 49280 73960 80960 27420 29720 39640 63630 45500 42020 29560 45060 32760 62840 43390 43810 19040 106900 85730 37910 29660 43950 118500 94040 90510 117600 77730 48790 35340 42120 46840 26390 39920 50070 14880 36200 38900 29240 69260 34660 50530 68720 117100 152400 40500 51810 113700 36610 59990 89460 33580 35440 38600 58850 36670 31280 65840
2022-05-31 72250 80310 19680 31810 41090 36660 24820 49320 42940 43300 67990 26430 69580 126800 90200 25220 66390 58550 39950 61010 64780 82050 347700 35840 56500 49870 26650 95280 21110 135500 43190 173600 49730 39270 102500 26740 96480 169100 40280 109400 33940 32770 38080 33080 66620 67530 44190 72770 34850 47640 36790 30930 98910 61960 62050 37280 53150 131200 121500 34310 35720 32150 41620 184500 20230 65660 7994 23460 27010 160000 24160 184400 112300 16880 40910 124900 51790 38330 40470 28300 87150 20120 108700 107400 35620 109600 45050 53790 119800 49440 27330 42770 43960 37570 50580 38290 37330 29330 38960 107400 41610 69200 33010 46070 14740 49550 97190 44360 28350 37910 42730 62210 36550 31320 129100 34350 24150 26350 70520 40980 239700 43040 27410 37000 31180 91000 47400 90800 49610 27010 63900 31030 83760 32630 53300 82150 33420 34080 29810 39740 90150 53270 37830 29940 69620 101800 37400 45260 95310 57180 29210 29870 45320 40620 74910 45140 35570 44640 90910 60340 139400 60180 112600 47030 277200 121000 30670 96550 35390 33720 177200 75750 57750 20160 20520 194500 38270 94770 16400 33780 72890 24010 28820 51230 53280 34610 98750 27900 28060 50580 39630 107600 42140 107700 50470 29250 32870 53300 43680 36380 141700 53880 24050 69790 78670 21660 34640 79880 108100 45290 110400 46460 20240 79670 5377 53000 30950 47410 74960 89760 72300 51880 58090 100800 48050 29290 53870 74050 21350 67110 15380 77300 29100 24640 26160 94000 39420 29060 41780 35470 11850 14270 96520 111000 31510 32650 38520 99600 30070 39300 190400 6884 97960 52130 73650 46240 39370 23760 52740 36750 98280 24580 28020 45350 28900 131500 41240 30520 46450 39560 49170 36910 55070 82720 61680 103100 35980 52790 67370 46250 30900 30120 32610 104000 72150 88810 40930 35360 100200 31480 73630 49310 74000 81000 27430 29730 39660 63660 45520 42050 29580 45090 32770 62870 43410 43830 19050 107000 85770 37930 29680 43980 118500 94090 90550 117600 77770 48820 35360 42150 46860 26410 39940 50090 14890 36220 38920 29250 69310 34680 50560 68740 117100 152500 40520 51830 113800 36630 60020 89500 33600 35460 38630 58890 36680 31300 65870
2022-06-01 72320 80390 19690 31830 41110 36690 24850 49350 42960 43320 68030 26450 69610 126900 90230 25230 66420 58580 39970 61040 64820 82090 347800 35850 56510 49890 26660 95310 21120 135600 43220 173600 49760 39290 102500 26750 96530 169200 40300 109500 33960 32790 38100 33090 66650 67560 44220 72800 34870 47670 36810 30940 98960 61990 62080 37300 53190 131200 121500 34330 35740 32170 41630 184600 20250 65700 8001 23470 27020 160100 24170 184400 112300 16890 40930 125000 51810 38340 40490 28310 87200 20130 108700 107500 35640 109600 45080 53810 119800 49500 27350 42790 43990 37590 50610 38310 37350 29340 38990 107400 41640 69230 33030 46090 14750 49570 97230 44380 28360 37930 42760 62250 36580 31330 129200 34370 24170 26360 70550 41000 239900 43060 27430 37010 31200 91030 47430 90850 49640 27030 63940 31050 83800 32650 53330 82200 33440 34100 29820 39770 90200 53300 37850 29950 69700 101900 37410 45300 95360 57220 29220 29890 45340 40640 74950 45160 35590 44660 90950 60370 139500 60210 112700 47060 277300 121000 30690 96600 35400 33740 177300 75790 57790 20170 20540 194600 38290 94820 16410 33790 72920 24020 28830 51250 53310 34630 98800 27920 28090 50610 39640 107700 42160 107700 50520 29260 32890 53320 43700 36400 141800 53900 24060 69820 78710 21660 34660 79920 108200 45310 110500 46480 20250 79700 5384 53030 30960 47450 75000 89790 72350 51900 58120 100900 48070 29300 53900 74100 21360 67140 15390 77320 29120 24650 26180 94050 39440 29070 41800 35490 11850 14280 96560 111100 31520 32670 38540 99640 30080 39320 190500 6894 98030 52150 73690 46270 39400 23770 52780 36760 98330 24600 28040 45370 28920 131500 41270 30540 46470 39570 49200 36920 55100 82760 61720 103200 36000 52820 67400 46280 30910 30140 32630 104100 72180 88860 40950 35380 100300 31490 73660 49340 74030 81030 27440 29750 39680 63690 45550 42070 29590 45120 32790 62900 43430 43850 19060 107000 85810 37950 29700 44000 118600 94120 90590 117700 77790 48850 35380 42170 46890 26420 39960 50120 14890 36240 38940 29260 69360 34700 50590 68770 117100 152500 40540 51870 113800 36650 60050 89530 33620 35480 38650 58920 36700 31320 65900
2022-06-02 72370 80460 19710 31840 41130 36720 24860 49380 42980 43350 68060 26460 69630 127000 90270 25240 66450 58620 39990 61070 64850 82120 347900 35870 56530 49900 26680 95340 21130 135600 43240 173700 49790 39300 102500 26760 96580 169200 40330 109600 33970 32810 38120 33100 66680 67580 44250 72840 34880 47690 36830 30960 99000 62010 62100 37320 53220 131300 121600 34350 35770 32190 41650 184600 20260 65730 8010 23480 27030 160200 24190 184500 112400 16890 40960 125000 51830 38360 40510 28330 87250 20140 108800 107600 35660 109700 45120 53840 119900 49590 27360 42820 44020 37610 50640 38340 37380 29350 39020 107500 41660 69270 33050 46120 14760 49600 97280 44400 28370 37950 42770 62280 36600 31340 129300 34390 24180 26370 70590 41010 240000 43080 27450 37030 31210 91070 47450 90890 49660 27040 63970 31060 83840 32660 53350 82240 33460 34110 29840 39790 90230 53340 37870 29960 69770 101900 37430 45330 95400 57250 29230 29910 45360 40670 74990 45180 35600 44690 90990 60410 139500 60230 112700 47080 277400 121100 30710 96640 35420 33760 177300 75810 57830 20180 20550 194600 38310 94860 16420 33810 72950 24030 28850 51280 53330 34660 98850 27930 28120 50640 39660 107700 42190 107800 50550 29270 32900 53340 43720 36420 141800 53930 24080 69860 78750 21670 34670 79960 108200 45340 110500 46510 20260 79720 5390 53070 30970 47490 75040 89830 72400 51920 58150 100900 48090 29320 53930 74140 21360 67180 15390 77340 29130 24660 26190 94090 39460 29090 41830 35510 11860 14280 96590 111100 31540 32700 38560 99680 30100 39340 190600 6904 98090 52170 73720 46300 39430 23790 52820 36780 98380 24610 28050 45400 28940 131600 41300 30550 46490 39590 49230 36940 55120 82800 61750 103200 36020 52850 67430 46300 30930 30150 32650 104100 72220 88900 40980 35400 100300 31510 73690 49360 74070 81060 27460 29770 39700 63720 45570 42100 29610 45150 32810 62920 43460 43870 19070 107100 85840 37980 29710 44030 118600 94160 90630 117800 77830 48880 35400 42190 46910 26430 39980 50150 14900 36260 38960 29280 69410 34710 50630 68790 117200 152600 40570 51900 113900 36680 60090 89560 33640 35500 38670 58950 36720 31330 65950
2022-06-03 72430 80530 19720 31860 41150 36740 24880 49410 43000 43370 68100 26470 69660 127100 90300 25250 66480 58650 40000 61100 64880 82160 348100 35890 56540 49920 26690 95370 21140 135700 43280 173700 49820 39320 102600 26780 96630 169300 40350 109600 33990 32830 38140 33110 66700 67600 44280 72890 34900 47720 36840 30970 99050 62040 62140 37340 53260 131300 121600 34370 35790 32210 41670 184700 20270 65770 8018 23490 27040 160200 24200 184600 112400 16900 40980 125100 51860 38380 40530 28340 87290 20150 108800 107600 35690 109700 45150 53870 119900 49600 27370 42840 44050 37630 50670 38360 37400 29370 39030 107600 41680 69310 33060 46150 14770 49620 97320 44430 28380 37960 42790 62330 36620 31350 129400 34410 24200 26380 70620 41030 240200 43100 27460 37040 31230 91100 47480 90940 49690 27060 64010 31080 83890 32680 53380 82290 33470 34130 29860 39820 90280 53380 37890 29980 69850 102000 37450 45360 95450 57290 29240 29930 45380 40690 75030 45200 35620 44710 91030 60440 139600 60250 112800 47110 277500 121100 30730 96690 35440 33780 177400 75840 57860 20190 20560 194700 38330 94910 16420 33830 72970 24050 28860 51300 53350 34680 98900 27950 28150 50680 39680 107700 42210 107800 50590 29290 32910 53360 43740 36450 141900 53950 24090 69890 78790 21680 34690 80000 108300 45370 110600 46530 20270 79740 5397 53100 30980 47530 75080 89870 72440 51930 58180 101000 48120 29330 53960 74190 21370 67220 15400 77370 29150 24660 26210 94130 39480 29100 41850 35530 11860 14290 96630 111200 31550 32720 38580 99720 30110 39360 190700 6914 98160 52200 73760 46330 39460 23800 52850 36800 98430 24630 28070 45420 28950 131700 41320 30570 46510 39600 49260 36960 55140 82850 61780 103300 36030 52880 67460 46330 30940 30170 32680 104200 72250 88940 41000 35420 100400 31520 73730 49390 74110 81100 27470 29790 39720 63750 45590 42120 29620 45170 32830 62960 43480 43890 19080 107100 85880 38000 29730 44050 118700 94200 90660 117800 77860 48910 35420 42220 46940 26440 40000 50170 14910 36280 38980 29290 69460 34730 50660 68820 117200 152700 40590 51930 113900 36700 60130 89600 33660 35520 38690 58990 36730 31350 65990
2022-06-04 72480 80600 19730 31870 41170 36770 24890 49440 43020 43400 68130 26480 69690 127100 90330 25260 66500 58690 40020 61130 64900 82200 348200 35900 56550 49940 26700 95400 21150 135800 43310 173800 49840 39340 102600 26790 96680 169300 40380 109700 34010 32840 38160 33120 66720 67620 44300 72920 34910 47750 36860 30980 99090 62050 62170 37360 53290 131400 121700 34380 35810 32230 41680 185000 20280 65800 8026 23500 27050 160300 24210 184700 112500 16910 41000 125200 51880 38390 40550 28350 87330 20160 108900 107700 35710 109800 45180 53890 120000 49670 27390 42860 44080 37650 50690 38380 37420 29380 39050 107600 41700 69350 33080 46170 14770 49640 97360 44450 28390 37980 42810 62370 36650 31370 129500 34430 24210 26390 70640 41050 240500 43110 27480 37060 31250 91140 47500 90990 49710 27070 64040 31090 83930 32690 53410 82330 33490 34140 29880 39840 90320 53410 37910 29990 69920 102100 37470 45400 95500 57320 29240 29940 45400 40710 75070 45220 35640 44740 91070 60470 139600 60260 112800 47140 277600 121100 30740 96730 35460 33790 177500 75870 57890 20200 20580 194800 38350 94950 16430 33840 73000 24060 28880 51330 53380 34700 98950 27960 28180 50710 39690 107800 42230 107800 50630 29300 32930 53370 43750 36470 142000 53980 24100 69930 78830 21690 34710 80030 108300 45400 110600 46550 20270 79770 5405 53130 30990 47560 75120 89910 72480 51950 58210 101000 48140 29350 53990 74230 21380 67260 15410 77400 29160 24670 26230 94170 39500 29120 41860 35550 11870 14300 96660 111200 31560 32750 38600 99760 30130 39380 190800 6923 98220 52220 73790 46360 39490 23810 52890 36820 98480 24640 28080 45450 28970 131800 41340 30580 46530 39620 49290 36970 55160 82890 61810 103300 36050 52900 67480 46350 30960 30180 32700 104200 72280 88970 41030 35440 100400 31540 73760 49420 74160 81130 27480 29800 39740 63780 45620 42150 29640 45200 32840 62990 43500 43910 19090 107200 85910 38020 29750 44080 118700 94230 90700 117900 77880 48940 35440 42240 46960 26460 40030 50200 14910 36300 39000 29300 69500 34750 50690 68840 117300 152800 40610 51950 114000 36720 60160 89630 33680 35540 38710 59020 36750 31370 66010
2022-06-05 72530 80670 19740 31890 41200 36790 24910 49470 43030 43430 68160 26500 69720 127200 90370 25280 66540 58730 40040 61170 64930 82240 348300 35920 56570 49950 26710 95430 21160 135800 43340 173900 49880 39350 102700 26810 96730 169400 40400 109700 34020 32860 38180 33130 66750 67640 44330 72960 34930 47770 36880 31000 99130 62080 62200 37390 53330 131400 121800 34400 35840 32250 41700 185300 20300 65840 8034 23510 27060 160400 24230 184800 112500 16920 41030 125200 51910 38410 40570 28370 87380 20170 108900 107700 35730 109800 45210 53920 120100 49710 27400 42890 44110 37670 50720 38400 37450 29400 39080 107700 41720 69380 33100 46200 14780 49660 97410 44470 28410 38000 42830 62420 36670 31380 129600 34450 24230 26400 70670 41070 240600 43140 27500 37070 31260 91190 47530 91030 49740 27080 64070 31110 83960 32710 53440 82380 33510 34160 29900 39870 90360 53450 37930 30000 69980 102100 37490 45430 95550 57360 29250 29960 45430 40740 75110 45230 35660 44770 91110 60510 139700 60290 112900 47170 277600 121200 30760 96770 35470 33810 177500 75900 57930 20210 20590 194800 38370 94990 16440 33860 73030 24070 28890 51350 53400 34720 99010 27980 28210 50750 39710 107800 42250 107900 50670 29310 32950 53400 43770 36490 142000 54000 24110 69970 78870 21700 34730 80080 108400 45430 110600 46570 20280 79790 5412 53170 31010 47600 75160 89950 72530 51960 58240 101000 48160 29360 54030 74270 21390 67300 15420 77420 29170 24670 26240 94210 39520 29130 41890 35570 11870 14310 96700 111200 31580 32770 38620 99800 30140 39400 190900 6932 98280 52230 73820 46390 39510 23830 52930 36840 98530 24660 28100 45470 28990 131800 41370 30600 46550 39630 49320 36990 55190 82930 61850 103400 36070 52930 67520 46380 30980 30200 32730 104300 72310 89020 41060 35470 100500 31550 73800 49450 74200 81160 27490 29820 39770 63810 45650 42170 29660 45230 32860 63020 43520 43930 19100 107200 85940 38040 29770 44110 118700 94270 90740 118000 77920 48970 35460 42270 46990 26470 40050 50230 14920 36310 39010 29320 69550 34770 50730 68870 117300 152800 40630 51990 114100 36750 60200 89670 33700 35560 38740 59060 36760 31390 66050

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.