COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-06-08 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-06-08

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-06-08

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-25 --2022-03-232022-03-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-05-052022-03-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-232022-01-24 --2022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-03-22 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-22 --2022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 -- --2022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-05-052022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-282022-01-242022-03-22 --2022-03-262022-01-242022-03-222022-03-22 --2022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-24 --2022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-05-042022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-04-192022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-03-232022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-05-04
Peak daily increment 543 1126 1275 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 134 398 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 266 253 17521 1550 3317 165 97 205 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 153 2002 167 2670 195 234 273 132 1418 1362 1222 433 2422 2091 214 270 562 4793 1173 962 949 1524 302 774 71 3960 513 7900 4326 70 1426 372 1559 1550 131 862 3466 481 4767 2335 1159 307 312 663 1048 885 1468 1093 891 441 158 1625 976 1274 71 1353 3625 1652 982 152 1007 930 917 1022 779 105 2871 147 1464 848 1510 117 3360 1261 3318 173 120 194 1115 3254 1188 224 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 287 1188 1044 274 131 1158 3872 1474 1689 1209 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 274 2021 423 185 4514 1732 837 234 803 3519 136 1238 9205 172 1963 580 540 462 146 3625 516 696 2554 147 650 1251 2802 3381 825 1263 162 4887 167 230 2252 659 963 1941 1111 180 220 131 1868 297 835 131 2965 442 1403 274 1790 56 4269 210 57 3085 535 331 2466 197 234 2322 108 1632 60 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 290 142 892 158 145 51 75 4748 5886 183 1073 4438 126 1175 933 530 2347 2862 1130 87 1599 147 2982 170 863 1470 162 1059 875 1101 128 1007 129 2510 3022 2379 330 1253 1583 227 196 134 992 3842 3631 293 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 2290 3757 94 844 990 249 1394 1055 812 237 1025 2766 1234 1351 431 5344 3306 1034 878 1143 361 250 3811 4283 279 217 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 1620 922 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 241 139 796 1077 2155 132 129 275
Days since peak 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 77 78 135 135 135 135 135 135 78 78 135 135 135 75 77 71 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 78 135 78 34 76 78 78 77 135 135 135 78 135 135 78 78 78 135 135 135 135 135 78 135 77 135 135 135 135 73 135 78 135 135 78 135 135 135 135 135 135 77 78 135 135 135 135 135 135 78 77 135 135 135 78 135 135 135 135 77 135 135 135 135 135 78 135 77 135 135 135 76 135 135 135 78 77 78 135 135 135 78 135 135 135 135 135 135 78 135 135 78 75 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 76 135 78 78 135 135 78 78 135 135 75 135 135 76 135 135 135 78 77 135 135 135 135 77 135 135 135 135 135 135 78 135 77 78 34 135 135 135 135 78 78 78 135 78 135 78 135 78 135 78 135 72 135 78 74 135 78 78 135 78 77 135 77 135 77 135 135 135 135 135 135 78 78 135 78 78 76 78 135 135 35 135 135 78 135 50 78 135 135 135 78 135 73 135 78 135 135 78 135 135 135 78 135 74 135 135 135 78 135 135 75 76 77 135 135 135 74 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 77 135 135 77 135 135 135 78 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 77 74 135 135 78 78 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 135 77 78 135 135 135 78 78 35
Last total 19765 31890 41185 49506 43063 43396 68218 26520 69684 127293 90341 25287 66513 58779 40034 61274 64914 82244 348326 35915 56585 49948 21279 26694 95435 21138 135828 43316 173822 49877 39400 102794 26816 40858 96826 169639 40451 109872 34005 32852 38180 33117 66752 51357 67695 44433 73146 34906 47814 102916 36911 47886 30983 99198 12865 62102 62212 37376 53325 131510 121837 34400 35891 32267 41717 65847 26432 23509 27059 160535 24243 184875 112595 16909 41032 125334 51920 38439 40554 28366 24627 87309 20186 108889 107850 35703 109802 120164 27423 42906 37759 50731 38399 29408 107715 41704 69420 33143 46262 14803 49747 97376 44476 28431 38054 42870 36717 31372 39046 34476 24194 26423 70740 41084 43109 27548 37063 31239 91296 47573 26991 91038 49756 27081 64103 31113 84007 32726 53461 82397 33567 34165 29884 39899 90325 53433 37928 30024 102186 37500 45465 95557 57400 29252 45434 14810 40743 75229 45342 35613 44746 91084 60553 139735 60307 113004 47204 277819 121269 30789 96904 35486 33774 177574 75870 57887 20200 20591 194899 38338 94964 16471 33916 19330 73136 24095 28937 51444 53407 99001 28011 20046 42598 50771 39725 107941 42242 107958 44204 29370 32941 53397 43837 36501 53997 24135 70004 78889 21697 34732 80054 108517 45473 110750 46529 20280 79812 53250 26302 30989 75081 90125 72658 26313 52007 58293 101015 48148 29326 54076 71294 21388 67325 15426 77444 29141 24703 26252 94197 39543 29190 41919 35560 11889 14315 96707 111225 31602 38636 99820 30132 39454 191008 98188 52234 73822 46385 23846 53012 36835 98562 24661 28074 45454 29022 41404 30624 46642 39654 49343 36974 55199 83073 61807 103444 36107 52950 67528 46385 30977 30193 104278 72333 88993 41080 35507 100483 31598 73818 49427 68559 74205 81146 27479 29824 39803 63795 45632 42229 29665 45182 32866 63029 43544 43964 26973 19126 107327 85966 38029 29777 36899 44154 118739 94258 90757 118021 77959 49008 35444 42325 47008 26472 40042 50270 14937 39007 29330 34830 50759 69074 117369 153061 40677 52017 114013 36743 60278 89640 33690 35558 37888 38751 59073 36758 31335 66158
Last daily increment 9 12 24 26 15 28 34 18 16 68 19 9 28 39 14 44 26 31 111 19 17 19 0 5 32 9 55 25 42 23 17 46 12 0 70 80 19 73 8 16 20 11 25 0 31 39 69 9 32 0 13 0 8 51 0 20 26 15 32 60 60 12 20 22 13 37 0 9 14 82 17 86 51 9 15 65 22 20 16 13 1 36 12 31 71 10 40 68 14 25 35 24 19 17 53 24 38 23 24 11 25 35 21 18 22 24 15 15 0 20 10 11 34 24 16 16 11 17 53 30 0 47 21 19 41 14 49 13 21 50 24 14 13 20 41 35 17 14 53 15 42 38 37 6 19 0 16 52 40 10 25 27 37 67 17 66 24 115 39 15 62 18 14 59 22 15 8 12 82 14 41 8 23 0 25 8 15 28 25 47 21 0 0 30 16 65 22 43 0 21 13 17 35 28 21 14 35 45 6 16 36 69 29 66 21 7 33 44 0 8 16 61 53 0 19 41 28 32 5 25 1 5 43 10 18 6 11 16 33 24 21 21 12 11 7 33 33 18 12 47 18 22 103 47 21 26 35 15 59 21 44 16 7 39 18 25 17 37 8 27 18 26 52 23 56 19 33 32 24 11 9 35 40 26 32 23 45 16 34 20 0 35 35 9 11 32 29 18 31 18 24 14 18 18 15 0 14 69 23 21 19 0 28 31 24 26 58 46 32 24 29 38 16 17 15 6 16 11 28 19 45 47 99 27 21 54 16 38 31 16 12 0 26 30 6 14 53
Last week 66 72 91 148 106 93 201 81 112 386 133 66 119 181 76 223 129 167 594 82 75 80 5 52 149 38 320 133 225 121 103 287 70 12 297 439 133 363 69 82 96 36 122 10 148 212 308 48 148 34 110 13 55 237 3 121 147 91 155 287 316 74 121 113 84 167 18 49 51 413 73 465 292 35 115 338 132 100 78 73 10 181 54 185 350 80 181 338 83 127 175 140 100 87 287 92 201 111 154 53 152 195 106 75 124 100 137 56 7 126 47 62 203 105 69 107 62 63 257 140 17 210 116 70 177 78 224 79 136 226 122 81 70 129 178 151 93 72 301 91 184 238 192 37 107 3 111 260 176 51 105 152 174 270 114 327 147 602 234 96 308 76 67 309 105 146 39 64 380 67 204 53 111 6 181 64 97 173 135 252 96 5 11 155 95 285 102 231 13 101 71 96 132 111 112 70 177 202 31 93 175 355 163 273 70 30 134 208 12 38 129 304 292 2 117 199 175 105 44 184 27 41 203 38 118 39 52 81 164 112 99 110 87 36 43 178 177 82 93 200 63 110 498 220 103 151 139 72 244 71 246 68 52 110 111 131 94 167 76 144 63 123 297 133 294 108 148 146 128 73 66 201 162 162 154 111 234 102 181 119 14 183 148 46 76 127 131 105 158 81 110 89 156 113 111 4 65 300 173 94 80 11 146 195 155 185 319 185 161 84 167 139 62 88 151 47 85 66 121 169 247 224 503 126 177 236 103 209 133 92 76 7 109 179 63 49 222
Previous peak date2021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-202022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-06-062022-01-242021-12-202022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-12-292021-07-152021-12-292021-07-152022-01-242021-12-21 --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152022-01-242021-12-292021-07-142022-01-242021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-132022-01-24 --2021-12-29 --2021-10-122021-07-15 -- --2022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-08-18 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-15 --2022-01-24 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132022-01-242021-08-18 --2021-10-132021-12-292021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-122022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-12-282021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-172021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-152021-10-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-10-042021-12-21 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-162022-01-242022-01-242021-07-112021-07-162022-01-242021-07-29 --2022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-12-28 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-12-212021-12-29 --2022-01-242021-07-112022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-10-182022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-08-032022-01-242021-07-162022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-12-292022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-12-21 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-12-292022-01-242021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-08-17 --2022-01-242021-07-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-142021-10-152022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-152022-01-24 -- --2022-01-242021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-10-182021-07-152022-01-24 --2021-08-172022-01-242021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-12-202021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-12-292021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-172021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-07-15 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-12-30 --2021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Previous peak daily increment 51 115 105 127 120 57 3477 4581 276 70 139 152 144 287 2285 3307 943 127 2250 316 962 4696 293 107 478 103 176 68 579 218 621 4 258 94 72 1302 74 2935 616 2895 1143 2214 1302 1225 115 567 101 3005 178 170 1033 1466 3801 243 82 73 125 121 1939 459 114 995 708 607 376 551 101 5019 122 140 1634 305 64 400 4687 4677 135 122 65 3182 1563 61 417 105 58 1189 128 88 557 67 56 884 274 1519 95 63 1137 163 373 229 2105 817 2104 152 61 1498 65 146 54 151 1707 82 90 3914 1327 84 75 161 212 189 139 71 3609 6117 3336 301 117 11029 6320 51 213 1176 99 3848 120 41 47 10177 1515 169 40 164 264 503 101 274 49 179 583 1329 384 1519 5335 522 123 94 256 1060 1824 525 291 2931 77 1179 3811 87 5264 158 839 255 1562 326 1808 2613 2589 306 2199 4529 297 1065 114 1147 776 140 67 213 75 73 49 4307 1311 1297 1206 259 344 253 951 123 857 96 8405 3240 277 202 768 1218 345 587 763 128 68 77 1609 106 1377 303 200 152 4073 70 131 3012 1783 1077 243 339 3812 201 428 57 145 101 974 329 219 968 143 2555 116 92 150 1551 78 105 131 335 106 226 286 64 470 79 5038 4407 157 313 2987 1563 73 70 90 102 193 70 94 65 138 380 632 149 4157 1188 63 399 117 1437 1060 2087
Low between peaks 16 24 37 49 59 18 51 163 103 28 53 51 54 99 87 80 406 33 47 21 45 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 55 31 43 5 43 97 122 31 22 21 143 46 94 98 164 119 31 31 54 35 107 25 29 227 190 143 19 39 163 49 43 40 32 142 85 150 49 57 30 136 49 25 19 38 23 45 44 41 29 19 22 75 49 21 30 49 76 57 45 39 89 75 27 85 32 32 18 70 81 41 37 115 39 39 24 58 51 49 30 100 95 49 74 44 269 77 20 66 41 43 66 51 17 14 129 31 77 11 75 58 36 58 24 42 120 35 103 3 61 39 68 52 44 56 115 99 22 32 136 42 108 50 15 87 96 9 148 106 86 84 49 38 51 15 61 17 69 20 21 17 66 54 55 59 20 21 104 20 40 35 33 182 149 91 64 28 46 58 48 35 59 28 35 30 42 33 55 94 56 161 34 49 48 60 33 118 78 78 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 22 34 70 35 37 63 74 33 36 51 41 72 125 31 36 79 68 70 94 69 88 36 31 40 47 87 17 42 24 58 112 316 69 58 59 31 52 36 37 36

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-06-09 to 2022-06-15

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-06-08 19765 31890 41185 49506 43063 43396 68218 26520 69684 127293 90341 25287 66513 58779 40034 61274 64914 82244 348326 35915 56585 49948 26694 95435 21138 135828 43316 173822 49877 39400 102794 26816 40858 96826 169639 40451 109872 34005 32852 38180 33117 66752 51357 67695 44433 73146 34906 47814 102916 36911 47886 30983 99198 62102 62212 37376 53325 131510 121837 34400 35891 32267 41717 65847 26432 23509 27059 160535 24243 184875 112595 16909 41032 125334 51920 38439 40554 28366 24627 87309 20186 108889 107850 35703 109802 120164 27423 42906 37759 50731 38399 29408 107715 41704 69420 33143 46262 14803 49747 97376 44476 28431 38054 42870 36717 31372 39046 34476 24194 26423 70740 41084 43109 27548 37063 31239 91296 47573 26991 91038 49756 27081 64103 31113 84007 32726 53461 82397 33567 34165 29884 39899 90325 53433 37928 30024 102186 37500 45465 95557 57400 29252 45434 40743 75229 45342 35613 44746 91084 60553 139735 60307 113004 47204 277819 121269 30789 96904 35486 33774 177574 75870 57887 20200 20591 194899 38338 94964 16471 33916 19330 73136 24095 28937 51444 53407 99001 28011 42598 50771 39725 107941 42242 107958 44204 29370 32941 53397 43837 36501 53997 24135 70004 78889 21697 34732 80054 108517 45473 110750 46529 20280 79812 53250 26302 30989 75081 90125 72658 52007 58293 101015 48148 29326 54076 71294 21388 67325 15426 77444 29141 24703 26252 94197 39543 29190 41919 35560 11889 14315 96707 111225 31602 38636 99820 30132 39454 191008 98188 52234 73822 46385 23846 53012 36835 98562 24661 28074 45454 29022 41404 30624 46642 39654 49343 36974 55199 83073 61807 103444 36107 52950 67528 46385 30977 30193 104278 72333 88993 41080 35507 100483 31598 73818 49427 68559 74205 81146 27479 29824 39803 63795 45632 42229 29665 45182 32866 63029 43544 43964 19126 107327 85966 38029 29777 36899 44154 118739 94258 90757 118021 77959 49008 35444 42325 47008 26472 40042 50270 14937 39007 29330 34830 50759 69074 117369 153061 40677 52017 114013 36743 60278 89640 33690 35558 37888 38751 59073 36758 31335 66158
2022-06-09 19770 31900 41200 49530 43080 43420 68240 26530 69690 127300 90370 25300 66510 58810 40050 61310 64930 82240 348400 35930 56600 49960 26700 95450 21140 135900 43340 173900 49910 39410 102800 26820 41220 96880 169700 40470 109900 34020 32850 38190 33130 66770 51450 67700 44430 73150 34920 47840 103900 36930 48320 30990 99240 62100 62250 37390 53350 131500 121900 34410 35910 32280 41720 65880 26670 23520 27060 160600 24250 184900 112600 16920 41040 125400 51920 38460 40560 28380 24840 87340 20190 108900 107900 35720 109800 120200 27440 42940 37790 50740 38410 29420 107700 41720 69450 33170 46290 14810 49760 97380 44500 28440 38080 42890 36740 31380 39390 34490 24200 26430 70770 41100 43120 27570 37070 31250 91330 47610 27230 91080 49770 27090 64100 31130 84050 32740 53460 82430 33590 34180 29900 39920 90330 53460 37940 30030 102200 37510 45490 95590 57430 29260 45450 40740 75260 45370 35620 44760 91100 60590 139800 60330 113000 47210 277800 121300 30810 96950 35490 33790 177600 75890 57910 20200 20590 194900 38340 94960 16480 33930 19480 73140 24100 28950 51470 53430 99030 28020 42980 50770 39740 108000 42240 108000 44280 29380 32950 53410 43870 36500 54020 24150 70010 78890 21700 34750 80080 108600 45500 110800 46540 20290 79810 53280 26540 31000 75100 90180 72710 52030 58330 101000 48170 29330 54100 71960 21400 67370 15430 77460 29150 24700 26260 94220 39540 29210 41940 35570 11890 14320 96720 111200 31610 38650 99850 30140 39470 191000 98230 52230 73850 46410 23860 53060 36850 98600 24670 28070 45480 29020 41430 30640 46670 39660 49370 36990 55200 83130 61810 103500 36130 52970 67550 46410 30990 30200 104300 72360 89010 41100 35520 100500 31610 73840 49450 69200 74240 81170 27490 29830 39820 63800 45650 42260 29680 45200 32880 63030 43560 43970 19140 107400 85970 38050 29780 37230 44170 118800 94280 90760 118100 77990 49030 35460 42350 47040 26470 40050 50300 14940 39010 29340 34850 50790 69120 117400 153100 40700 52050 114100 36760 60320 89660 33700 35570 38220 38770 59110 36770 31340 66200
2022-06-10 19780 31910 41210 49540 43080 43450 68240 26540 69700 127400 90390 25300 66530 58820 40060 61350 64940 82250 348400 35930 56610 49970 26710 95460 21150 135900 43350 173900 49940 39420 102900 26820 41220 96940 169800 40480 110000 34030 32860 38200 33140 66790 53270 67700 44450 73160 34920 47870 103900 36930 48320 30990 99260 62110 62280 37400 53360 131600 121900 34420 35920 32290 41730 65890 26670 23520 27060 160700 24260 184900 112700 16920 41040 125400 51930 38460 40570 28380 24840 87360 20200 109000 108000 35730 109900 120300 27440 42970 37820 50750 38420 29440 107800 41730 69460 33180 46300 14810 49780 97390 44520 28440 38110 42900 36750 31380 39390 34510 24210 26440 70810 41120 43150 27580 37080 31260 91370 47640 27230 91100 49770 27100 64110 31150 84090 32740 53480 82430 33610 34180 29900 39930 90340 53470 37950 30030 102300 37510 45490 95630 57470 29270 45460 40740 75310 45400 35640 44770 91130 60620 139800 60340 113100 47230 277900 121300 30830 96990 35500 33800 177600 75900 57930 20210 20600 195000 38360 94980 16480 33940 19480 73140 24110 28950 51470 53440 99060 28020 42980 50790 39750 108000 42260 108000 45850 29380 32960 53430 43890 36510 54030 24150 70030 78910 21710 34750 80090 108600 45500 110800 46560 20290 79840 53300 26540 31010 75120 90230 72760 52040 58360 101100 48180 29340 54140 71960 21400 67410 15430 77480 29160 24710 26270 94240 39550 29230 41940 35580 11890 14320 96740 111300 31620 38650 99860 30150 39470 191100 98270 52250 73870 46420 23860 53100 36850 98620 24680 28090 45510 29030 41440 30640 46700 39670 49380 36990 55220 83180 61840 103600 36140 52980 67560 46410 31000 30210 104300 72370 89040 41100 35530 100500 31630 73870 49450 69200 74280 81200 27500 29830 39830 63820 45660 42290 29680 45210 32900 63050 43560 43980 19140 107400 86000 38070 29790 37230 44180 118800 94290 90770 118200 78020 49040 35460 42380 47060 26480 40060 50330 14950 39020 29350 34850 50820 69160 117400 153200 40700 52080 114100 36760 60350 89670 33710 35580 38220 38770 59140 36780 31360 66230
2022-06-11 19780 31920 41220 49570 43080 43470 68260 26550 69730 127500 90420 25310 66550 58840 40070 61390 64950 82270 348500 35940 56620 49980 26720 95470 21160 136000 43370 174000 49970 39420 102900 26840 41220 97010 169800 40490 110100 34040 32870 38200 33150 66820 54340 67710 44480 73190 34940 47900 103900 36940 48320 31000 99290 62120 62320 37420 53380 131600 121900 34440 35940 32300 41730 65910 26670 23530 27070 160700 24270 185000 112800 16930 41050 125500 51940 38470 40590 28400 24840 87400 20200 109000 108100 35750 109900 120300 27450 43010 37850 50770 38440 29450 107800 41740 69490 33200 46320 14820 49800 97410 44550 28440 38140 42920 36760 31390 39390 34540 24230 26450 70840 41150 43170 27600 37090 31270 91400 47670 27230 91130 49780 27110 64130 31170 84140 32750 53500 82450 33640 34190 29910 39950 90350 53500 37960 30040 102300 37520 45510 95670 57510 29280 45480 40750 75350 45430 35650 44790 91160 60660 139800 60350 113100 47250 277900 121300 30850 97040 35520 33810 177700 75920 57960 20210 20610 195000 38370 95000 16490 33950 19480 73170 24120 28960 51470 53450 99100 28030 42980 50820 39770 108100 42270 108000 46770 29380 32970 53450 43910 36530 54040 24160 70060 78920 21720 34760 80110 108700 45510 110900 46570 20300 79850 53340 26540 31030 75150 90290 72810 52060 58400 101100 48190 29360 54170 71960 21410 67450 15440 77510 29170 24710 26270 94260 39560 29250 41960 35600 11900 14330 96780 111300 31630 38660 99880 30160 39470 191200 98310 52260 73900 46440 23870 53140 36870 98650 24700 28100 45540 29050 41460 30650 46720 39670 49400 37000 55240 83240 61860 103600 36160 52990 67570 46430 31010 30220 104300 72390 89070 41110 35540 100600 31640 73900 49470 69200 74320 81220 27510 29850 39840 63850 45680 42320 29690 45220 32920 63070 43560 44000 19150 107500 86010 38090 29810 37230 44190 118800 94310 90790 118200 78060 49060 35460 42420 47080 26490 40070 50370 14950 39030 29360 34860 50850 69210 117500 153300 40720 52120 114100 36770 60390 89680 33730 35600 38220 38770 59170 36800 31370 66260
2022-06-12 19790 31940 41240 49590 43090 43500 68270 26560 69750 127600 90450 25320 66580 58870 40080 61430 64960 82290 348700 35950 56630 49990 26730 95490 21160 136000 43400 174000 50000 39430 102900 26850 41220 97080 169900 40520 110100 34060 32890 38210 33160 66840 55060 67730 44520 73220 34950 47940 103900 36960 48320 31020 99330 62130 62350 37440 53400 131600 121900 34450 35960 32310 41750 65940 26670 23540 27080 160800 24280 185100 112800 16940 41060 125500 51960 38490 40610 28410 24840 87430 20210 109100 108200 35770 109900 120400 27460 43040 37890 50800 38450 29460 107900 41760 69520 33220 46350 14820 49820 97430 44580 28440 38160 42940 36780 31390 39390 34560 24240 26460 70880 41180 43190 27620 37110 31280 91440 47700 27230 91170 49790 27120 64150 31190 84180 32770 53530 82470 33660 34200 29930 39970 90370 53520 37980 30040 102400 37530 45530 95700 57560 29290 45500 40770 75390 45460 35670 44810 91200 60700 139800 60370 113200 47280 278000 121400 30870 97090 35530 33830 177800 75930 57990 20220 20620 195100 38380 95030 16490 33960 19480 73190 24130 28970 51480 53470 99140 28040 42980 50850 39780 108100 42290 108000 47390 29390 32990 53470 43940 36550 54070 24170 70100 78950 21730 34780 80140 108800 45530 110900 46580 20300 79880 53380 26540 31040 75180 90350 72860 52080 58430 101100 48210 29370 54210 71960 21420 67480 15450 77530 29180 24720 26290 94290 39570 29270 41980 35610 11910 14340 96810 111300 31640 38680 99900 30170 39480 191300 98360 52280 73930 46460 23880 53180 36880 98690 24710 28110 45570 29070 41480 30660 46750 39680 49420 37010 55260 83290 61890 103700 36190 53020 67600 46450 31020 30230 104400 72420 89110 41130 35560 100600 31660 73930 49490 69200 74360 81250 27520 29860 39860 63880 45700 42350 29700 45240 32940 63100 43580 44020 19160 107500 86030 38110 29820 37230 44200 118900 94320 90810 118300 78100 49090 35470 42450 47110 26500 40100 50400 14960 39050 29370 34880 50880 69250 117500 153300 40740 52150 114200 36780 60430 89690 33740 35620 38220 38790 59200 36810 31380 66290
2022-06-13 19800 31950 41260 49620 43100 43530 68290 26570 69790 127600 90480 25330 66610 58900 40100 61480 64970 82320 348800 35970 56650 50000 26750 95500 21170 136100 43420 174100 50030 39440 103000 26870 41220 97150 170000 40540 110200 34080 32910 38220 33170 66870 55680 67750 44550 73260 34960 47970 103900 36980 48320 31030 99380 62160 62390 37460 53430 131700 121900 34470 35980 32330 41760 65980 26670 23550 27100 160900 24290 185200 112900 16940 41070 125600 51980 38510 40620 28420 24840 87470 20220 109100 108200 35790 110000 120400 27480 43080 37920 50840 38470 29480 107900 41770 69560 33240 46370 14830 49840 97470 44620 28450 38190 42970 36810 31400 39390 34590 24250 26470 70920 41210 43210 27640 37120 31300 91480 47740 27230 91220 49800 27130 64180 31200 84220 32780 53570 82490 33690 34210 29940 40000 90400 53560 38000 30050 102400 37530 45550 95730 57600 29290 45520 40790 75440 45490 35690 44830 91250 60730 139800 60390 113200 47310 278100 121400 30890 97140 35550 33850 177900 75950 58020 20230 20640 195200 38400 95050 16500 33980 19480 73220 24150 28990 51500 53490 99170 28040 42980 50880 39800 108200 42320 108000 47930 29410 33000 53490 43960 36580 54090 24180 70150 78980 21740 34790 80170 108800 45550 111000 46600 20310 79900 53420 26540 31050 75220 90410 72920 52090 58470 101200 48230 29380 54240 71960 21420 67520 15460 77560 29200 24730 26300 94320 39590 29290 42000 35630 11910 14340 96860 111400 31660 38690 99920 30190 39490 191400 98420 52310 73960 46490 23890 53230 36900 98740 24730 28120 45600 29090 41500 30670 46770 39690 49450 37030 55290 83350 61930 103800 36210 53040 67620 46470 31040 30250 104400 72450 89160 41150 35580 100600 31670 73950 49510 69200 74410 81290 27530 29890 39880 63910 45720 42380 29710 45260 32970 63140 43590 44050 19170 107600 86060 38140 29840 37230 44220 118900 94340 90840 118400 78130 49110 35480 42480 47140 26520 40120 50440 14970 39070 29390 34900 50920 69300 117500 153400 40760 52190 114200 36800 60470 89710 33760 35640 38220 38810 59230 36830 31400 66330
2022-06-14 19810 31970 41280 49650 43110 43560 68310 26590 69820 127700 90520 25340 66640 58930 40120 61520 64990 82350 348900 35980 56660 50010 26760 95520 21180 136200 43450 174100 50070 39460 103000 26880 41220 97230 170100 40570 110300 34090 32940 38230 33180 66890 56120 67770 44600 73300 34980 48000 103900 37000 48320 31050 99440 62170 62430 37480 53460 131800 122000 34490 36010 32350 41770 66010 26670 23560 27110 161000 24310 185300 112900 16950 41090 125600 52000 38530 40640 28440 24840 87510 20230 109100 108300 35810 110000 120500 27490 43110 37960 50870 38490 29490 108000 41790 69600 33260 46400 14840 49870 97500 44640 28460 38220 42990 36830 31410 39390 34610 24270 26480 70960 41230 43230 27670 37140 31310 91510 47770 27230 91260 49820 27140 64210 31220 84280 32800 53610 82510 33710 34230 29960 40020 90430 53590 38020 30060 102500 37540 45580 95770 57660 29300 45540 40810 75500 45520 35700 44860 91290 60780 139800 60400 113300 47340 278200 121500 30910 97200 35570 33860 177900 75970 58060 20250 20660 195300 38420 95090 16510 34000 19480 73260 24170 29000 51510 53510 99210 28050 42980 50920 39820 108200 42350 108100 48310 29420 33020 53510 43980 36600 54120 24200 70200 79010 21750 34810 80210 108900 45580 111000 46610 20320 79930 53460 26540 31060 75270 90480 72970 52110 58510 101200 48250 29390 54280 71960 21430 67550 15470 77590 29210 24740 26320 94340 39600 29310 42020 35650 11920 14350 96910 111400 31670 38710 99940 30200 39500 191500 98470 52340 74000 46520 23910 53280 36920 98790 24740 28140 45630 29120 41530 30690 46800 39700 49480 37040 55320 83410 61970 103900 36240 53070 67640 46490 31050 30260 104400 72480 89200 41180 35600 100700 31690 73980 49540 69200 74450 81320 27550 29910 39910 63950 45750 42410 29730 45290 32990 63180 43610 44080 19180 107700 86090 38160 29860 37230 44240 119000 94360 90870 118400 78170 49140 35490 42520 47180 26530 40150 50480 14980 39090 29400 34920 50960 69350 117600 153500 40790 52230 114300 36820 60520 89720 33780 35670 38220 38830 59260 36850 31420 66370
2022-06-15 19830 31980 41300 49680 43120 43590 68330 26610 69850 127800 90550 25350 66680 58970 40140 61570 65000 82370 349000 36000 56670 50020 26770 95540 21190 136200 43480 174200 50100 39470 103100 26900 41220 97300 170100 40590 110400 34110 32960 38240 33190 66920 56490 67790 44640 73350 34990 48040 103900 37020 48320 31070 99490 62190 62470 37500 53490 131800 122000 34510 36030 32370 41780 66050 26670 23570 27130 161100 24320 185400 113000 16960 41110 125700 52010 38540 40670 28460 24840 87550 20240 109200 108400 35830 110100 120500 27510 43150 37990 50900 38520 29500 108100 41810 69640 33270 46440 14850 49890 97530 44660 28460 38250 43020 36860 31430 39390 34640 24280 26500 71000 41250 43250 27690 37150 31330 91550 47810 27230 91310 49830 27160 64240 31240 84310 32810 53640 82540 33740 34240 29980 40050 90460 53620 38040 30070 102500 37550 45620 95800 57700 29310 45570 40840 75530 45540 35720 44880 91330 60820 139900 60420 113300 47380 278300 121500 30930 97240 35600 33880 178000 75990 58090 20260 20670 195400 38440 95120 16520 34020 19480 73280 24190 29020 51530 53540 99240 28060 42980 50960 39840 108300 42370 108100 48630 29440 33030 53530 44010 36630 54140 24210 70250 79050 21760 34830 80250 109000 45610 111100 46620 20320 79970 53510 26540 31070 75300 90540 73030 52130 58540 101200 48270 29410 54310 71960 21440 67590 15480 77620 29220 24750 26330 94370 39620 29330 42040 35670 11930 14360 96950 111400 31690 38730 99970 30220 39520 191600 98530 52370 74030 46550 23920 53330 36930 98840 24760 28150 45660 29140 41560 30710 46820 39710 49510 37060 55350 83470 62000 103900 36250 53100 67670 46520 31060 30280 104500 72510 89250 41210 35630 100700 31700 74000 49560 69200 74500 81350 27560 29930 39930 63990 45770 42450 29750 45310 33010 63210 43630 44100 19190 107700 86110 38190 29880 37230 44250 119000 94380 90900 118500 78200 49180 35500 42550 47210 26550 40170 50520 14990 39120 29420 34950 50990 69390 117600 153500 40810 52270 114400 36840 60570 89740 33800 35690 38220 38850 59290 36860 31440 66400

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-06-09 to 2022-06-15

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-06-08 19765 31890 41185 49506 43063 43396 68218 26520 69684 127293 90341 25287 66513 58779 40034 61274 64914 82244 348326 35915 56585 49948 26694 95435 21138 135828 43316 173822 49877 39400 102794 26816 40858 96826 169639 40451 109872 34005 32852 38180 33117 66752 51357 67695 44433 73146 34906 47814 102916 36911 47886 30983 99198 62102 62212 37376 53325 131510 121837 34400 35891 32267 41717 65847 26432 23509 27059 160535 24243 184875 112595 16909 41032 125334 51920 38439 40554 28366 24627 87309 20186 108889 107850 35703 109802 120164 27423 42906 37759 50731 38399 29408 107715 41704 69420 33143 46262 14803 49747 97376 44476 28431 38054 42870 36717 31372 39046 34476 24194 26423 70740 41084 43109 27548 37063 31239 91296 47573 26991 91038 49756 27081 64103 31113 84007 32726 53461 82397 33567 34165 29884 39899 90325 53433 37928 30024 102186 37500 45465 95557 57400 29252 45434 40743 75229 45342 35613 44746 91084 60553 139735 60307 113004 47204 277819 121269 30789 96904 35486 33774 177574 75870 57887 20200 20591 194899 38338 94964 16471 33916 19330 73136 24095 28937 51444 53407 99001 28011 42598 50771 39725 107941 42242 107958 44204 29370 32941 53397 43837 36501 53997 24135 70004 78889 21697 34732 80054 108517 45473 110750 46529 20280 79812 53250 26302 30989 75081 90125 72658 52007 58293 101015 48148 29326 54076 71294 21388 67325 15426 77444 29141 24703 26252 94197 39543 29190 41919 35560 11889 14315 96707 111225 31602 38636 99820 30132 39454 191008 98188 52234 73822 46385 23846 53012 36835 98562 24661 28074 45454 29022 41404 30624 46642 39654 49343 36974 55199 83073 61807 103444 36107 52950 67528 46385 30977 30193 104278 72333 88993 41080 35507 100483 31598 73818 49427 68559 74205 81146 27479 29824 39803 63795 45632 42229 29665 45182 32866 63029 43544 43964 19126 107327 85966 38029 29777 36899 44154 118739 94258 90757 118021 77959 49008 35444 42325 47008 26472 40042 50270 14937 39007 29330 34830 50759 69074 117369 153061 40677 52017 114013 36743 60278 89640 33690 35558 37888 38751 59073 36758 31335 66158
2022-06-09 19780 31900 41200 49530 43080 43420 68250 26530 69700 127400 90370 25300 66530 58810 40050 61310 64940 82270 348400 35930 56600 49960 26700 95460 21150 135900 43340 173900 49900 39420 102800 26830 45500 96880 169700 40470 109900 34020 32860 38200 33130 66770 48780 67720 44460 73190 34920 47840 117300 36930 53700 30990 99240 62120 62240 37390 53350 131600 121900 34410 35910 32290 41730 65880 26530 23520 27070 160600 24260 184900 112600 16920 41050 125400 51940 38460 40570 28380 27040 87350 20200 108900 107900 35720 109800 120200 27440 42930 37790 50760 38420 29420 107800 41720 69450 33160 46290 14810 49770 97410 44500 28440 38070 42890 36740 31380 43400 34490 24210 26430 70770 41100 43120 27570 37080 31250 91340 47600 27120 91080 49780 27090 64130 31130 84050 32740 53480 82440 33590 34180 29900 39920 90350 53460 37940 30040 102200 37520 45500 95600 57430 29260 45450 40760 75270 45370 35620 44770 91120 60590 139800 60330 113100 47220 277900 121300 30810 96960 35500 33790 177600 75890 57910 20210 20600 195000 38350 95000 16480 33930 21220 73160 24100 28950 51470 53420 99040 28030 47190 50800 39740 108000 42260 108000 42040 29380 32950 53420 43860 36520 54020 24150 70030 78920 21700 34750 80080 108600 45500 110800 46540 20290 79830 53290 26080 31000 75110 90180 72710 52020 58330 101100 48170 29340 54110 80200 21400 67360 15430 77460 29150 24710 26270 94230 39560 29210 41940 35580 11890 14320 96740 111300 31610 38650 99900 30150 39470 191100 98230 52250 73850 46410 23860 53050 36850 98610 24670 28080 45480 29040 41430 30640 46670 39670 49370 36990 55220 83120 61830 103500 36130 52980 67550 46410 30990 30210 104300 72360 89020 41110 35530 100500 31620 73850 49450 77500 74240 81170 27490 29840 39820 63820 45650 42260 29680 45200 32880 63050 43570 43980 19140 107400 85990 38050 29790 41100 44180 118800 94280 90780 118100 77990 49040 35460 42350 47030 26480 40060 50290 14940 39020 29340 34850 50790 69110 117400 153200 40700 52040 114100 36760 60320 89660 33710 35570 38780 38770 59100 36770 31350 66200
2022-06-10 19780 31910 41220 49560 43090 43440 68280 26550 69720 127400 90390 25310 66560 58840 40060 61340 64970 82300 348500 35940 56610 49980 26710 95480 21150 135900 43360 173900 49920 39430 102900 26840 59700 96920 169800 40490 110000 34030 32870 38210 33130 66790 49010 67740 44490 73230 34930 47870 158500 36940 70600 31000 99280 62140 62260 37410 53370 131600 121900 34430 35930 32300 41750 65900 32230 23520 27080 160700 24270 185000 112700 16920 41070 125500 51960 38470 40590 28390 34790 87380 20200 109000 108000 35740 109900 120300 27450 42950 37810 50780 38430 29440 107800 41740 69480 33180 46310 14820 49800 97440 44510 28450 38090 42900 36760 31390 56800 34510 24220 26440 70810 41120 43140 27580 37090 31260 91380 47620 32980 91110 49790 27100 64150 31140 84090 32760 53500 82480 33610 34190 29910 39940 90390 53490 37960 30040 102300 37530 45520 95640 57460 29270 45470 40780 75310 45390 35640 44790 91150 60620 139800 60340 113100 47250 278000 121300 30820 97000 35520 33800 177700 75920 57940 20220 20610 195000 38360 95030 16480 33940 27160 73180 24110 28960 51490 53440 99090 28040 55210 50830 39760 108000 42280 108000 42230 29390 32960 53430 43880 36540 54040 24150 70060 78950 21710 34760 80110 108600 45520 110800 46560 20290 79850 53310 26950 31010 75130 90220 72760 52040 58360 101100 48180 29350 54140 107300 21400 67390 15440 77490 29160 24720 26280 94260 39570 29220 41960 35590 11900 14330 96760 111300 31630 38670 99900 30160 39490 191200 98280 52270 73880 46440 23870 53090 36870 98640 24680 28100 45500 29050 41450 30650 46690 39680 49390 37000 55230 83170 61860 103500 36140 53000 67580 46420 31000 30220 104300 72380 89050 41120 35540 100600 31630 73880 49470 103200 74280 81200 27500 29850 39840 63840 45670 42290 29690 45220 32900 63080 43580 44000 19140 107400 86030 38070 29810 53500 44200 118800 94320 90820 118100 78020 49060 35480 42370 47050 26490 40070 50320 14950 39030 29350 34870 50830 69140 117400 153200 40710 52080 114100 36780 60350 89690 33720 35580 48270 38780 59130 36780 31360 66230
2022-06-11 19790 31930 41230 49590 43110 43460 68310 26560 69750 127500 90420 25320 66580 58860 40080 61380 64990 82330 348600 35950 56620 49990 26720 95510 21160 136000 43390 174000 49950 39440 102900 26850 74500 96970 169800 40510 110100 34050 32890 38230 33140 66820 49140 67750 44520 73270 34940 47900 203700 36960 88500 31020 99320 62160 62300 37420 53400 131600 122000 34440 35950 32320 41760 65930 38050 23530 27090 160700 24280 185100 112700 16930 41090 125500 51980 38480 40600 28400 42800 87410 20210 109000 108000 35760 109900 120300 27460 42970 37840 50800 38450 29450 107900 41760 69520 33190 46340 14830 49820 97480 44530 28460 38110 42920 36780 31400 70900 34540 24230 26450 70840 41140 43150 27600 37100 31280 91420 47640 39020 91150 49820 27120 64180 31160 84130 32770 53520 82520 33630 34200 29930 39960 90420 53520 37970 30060 102300 37540 45540 95690 57490 29280 45490 40800 75350 45410 35650 44810 91180 60650 139900 60360 113200 47270 278100 121400 30840 97050 35530 33810 177700 75940 57970 20220 20620 195100 38380 95070 16490 33960 33150 73210 24120 28980 51510 53450 99140 28050 61950 50860 39780 108100 42290 108100 42350 29400 32980 53450 43890 36560 54060 24160 70090 78980 21720 34780 80140 108700 45550 110900 46580 20300 79870 53350 27820 31010 75160 90270 72800 52060 58390 101100 48190 29360 54170 136400 21410 67430 15440 77520 29170 24720 26290 94290 39590 29240 41980 35610 11900 14330 96790 111300 31640 38690 99900 30170 39510 191300 98330 52290 73910 46460 23880 53130 36880 98680 24700 28110 45520 29070 41470 30660 46720 39690 49410 37010 55250 83220 61890 103600 36160 53020 67600 46450 31010 30230 104400 72410 89090 41140 35560 100600 31650 73910 49490 130800 74310 81220 27510 29860 39850 63870 45700 42310 29700 45240 32910 63110 43600 44020 19150 107500 86060 38090 29820 66600 44220 118800 94350 90860 118200 78050 49080 35490 42400 47080 26500 40090 50340 14950 39050 29360 34880 50860 69170 117500 153300 40730 52110 114200 36800 60390 89720 33740 35590 58070 38800 59170 36800 31370 66260
2022-06-12 19800 31940 41260 49620 43130 43480 68340 26570 69780 127600 90450 25330 66620 58900 40090 61410 65020 82370 348800 35970 56640 50010 26740 95540 21160 136100 43410 174000 49980 39460 103000 26870 89100 97030 169900 40540 110100 34070 32900 38250 33150 66840 49230 67780 44560 73320 34950 47930 249400 36980 106200 31030 99370 62180 62330 37440 53430 131700 122000 34460 35970 32340 41780 65970 42820 23540 27100 160800 24290 185200 112800 16940 41110 125600 52010 38500 40620 28420 50550 87460 20220 109000 108100 35780 110000 120400 27470 43000 37870 50830 38470 29460 107900 41780 69560 33210 46370 14830 49850 97520 44560 28480 38130 42940 36810 31420 84700 34560 24240 26460 70870 41150 43170 27620 37120 31290 91470 47670 43960 91190 49840 27130 64210 31170 84170 32790 53550 82560 33650 34210 29950 39990 90460 53550 37990 30070 102400 37560 45570 95740 57530 29280 45510 40830 75390 45440 35670 44830 91220 60690 139900 60380 113200 47300 278200 121400 30860 97100 35550 33830 177800 75970 58000 20230 20640 195100 38390 95130 16500 33970 38920 73250 24140 28990 51530 53470 99190 28060 68440 50890 39800 108100 42310 108100 42430 29410 32990 53460 43910 36580 54080 24170 70130 79010 21730 34790 80170 108700 45580 110900 46590 20310 79900 53380 28560 31020 75200 90320 72860 52080 58420 101200 48210 29370 54210 165400 21420 67460 15450 77540 29180 24730 26310 94330 39610 29260 42000 35630 11910 14340 96830 111400 31650 38710 100000 30180 39530 191300 98390 52310 73940 46490 23890 53180 36900 98740 24710 28120 45540 29090 41500 30670 46740 39710 49440 37030 55270 83270 61920 103600 36180 53050 67630 46470 31030 30250 104400 72440 89130 41160 35580 100600 31670 73950 49520 158400 74350 81260 27520 29880 39870 63900 45720 42340 29720 45270 32930 63140 43620 44040 19160 107500 86090 38110 29840 79400 44250 118900 94390 90890 118300 78090 49110 35500 42440 47110 26520 40110 50380 14960 39070 29380 34900 50900 69210 117500 153400 40750 52150 114200 36830 60430 89750 33760 35610 66450 38820 59200 36810 31380 66300
2022-06-13 19820 31960 41280 49640 43150 43510 68380 26590 69810 127600 90480 25340 66640 58940 40110 61450 65050 82420 348900 35980 56650 50020 26750 95570 21170 136100 43440 174100 50010 39480 103000 26880 104300 97080 170000 40570 110200 34080 32920 38260 33160 66870 49370 67800 44590 73360 34970 47960 298100 37000 124700 31040 99410 62210 62360 37460 53460 131700 122100 34480 36000 32360 41790 66000 47680 23550 27110 160900 24300 185300 112900 16940 41140 125600 52040 38530 40640 28430 58520 87500 20230 109100 108200 35800 110000 120500 27490 43030 37900 50860 38490 29480 108000 41790 69600 33230 46400 14840 49880 97580 44590 28490 38150 42960 36830 31430 99000 34580 24250 26470 70910 41170 43190 27640 37130 31310 91520 47700 49020 91240 49860 27140 64250 31190 84220 32810 53580 82610 33670 34220 29970 40020 90500 53580 38020 30080 102500 37570 45610 95800 57570 29290 45540 40860 75430 45470 35680 44860 91260 60720 140000 60400 113300 47330 278300 121500 30890 97170 35560 33850 177900 76000 58040 20250 20650 195200 38410 95170 16510 33990 44800 73290 24150 29010 51560 53490 99250 28080 73780 50930 39820 108200 42340 108100 42550 29430 33010 53480 43940 36600 54110 24180 70170 79040 21740 34810 80210 108800 45610 111000 46610 20310 79920 53420 29180 31040 75240 90360 72910 52100 58460 101200 48230 29380 54240 196100 21420 67500 15460 77570 29200 24740 26330 94370 39630 29280 42020 35650 11910 14350 96860 111400 31670 38730 100000 30190 39550 191500 98440 52330 73970 46520 23910 53220 36920 98790 24720 28130 45570 29110 41530 30690 46770 39730 49460 37050 55300 83320 61960 103700 36200 53080 67660 46490 31040 30270 104500 72470 89170 41190 35600 100700 31690 73990 49550 187600 74400 81290 27530 29900 39900 63940 45740 42370 29740 45300 32950 63170 43650 44060 19170 107600 86120 38130 29850 92600 44270 118900 94420 90930 118300 78130 49140 35520 42470 47130 26530 40130 50410 14970 39090 29390 34920 50940 69240 117600 153500 40770 52180 114300 36850 60470 89780 33770 35630 75080 38850 59240 36830 31400 66340
2022-06-14 19830 31970 41300 49680 43170 43530 68410 26600 69840 127700 90520 25350 66680 58970 40130 61480 65090 82460 349000 36000 56660 50040 26760 95590 21180 136200 43470 174100 50040 39500 103100 26900 117600 97130 170100 40600 110300 34100 32940 38280 33170 66890 50020 67830 44630 73400 34980 47990 341100 37020 140900 31060 99460 62240 62400 37480 53500 131800 122100 34500 36030 32380 41810 66040 51300 23560 27120 161000 24320 185400 112900 16950 41160 125700 52070 38540 40660 28450 65480 87540 20240 109100 108200 35830 110100 120500 27500 43050 37930 50890 38510 29500 108000 41810 69640 33250 46430 14850 49910 97620 44610 28510 38170 42980 36860 31450 111600 34600 24270 26490 70940 41190 43200 27660 37150 31320 91570 47730 52790 91290 49890 27160 64290 31210 84260 32820 53610 82660 33700 34240 29980 40040 90550 53620 38040 30090 102500 37590 45640 95850 57610 29300 45560 40880 75470 45500 35700 44890 91290 60760 140000 60420 113300 47360 278400 121500 30910 97230 35580 33860 177900 76030 58070 20260 20670 195300 38430 95220 16520 34010 49900 73330 24170 29030 51580 53510 99300 28090 79000 50960 39840 108200 42360 108200 43100 29440 33020 53500 43960 36620 54130 24200 70210 79080 21750 34820 80250 108900 45640 111000 46630 20320 79940 53460 30080 31050 75280 90400 72960 52120 58490 101300 48240 29390 54270 223100 21430 67540 15470 77590 29210 24740 26340 94410 39650 29300 42040 35670 11920 14360 96900 111400 31680 38760 100000 30210 39570 191600 98500 52360 74000 46560 23920 53260 36940 98840 24740 28150 45590 29130 41560 30710 46800 39740 49490 37060 55320 83370 61990 103800 36220 53110 67680 46520 31060 30280 104500 72500 89210 41210 35620 100700 31710 74030 49570 213100 74440 81310 27540 29920 39920 63970 45770 42400 29750 45320 32970 63210 43670 44090 19180 107600 86160 38160 29870 104200 44300 119000 94460 90980 118400 78170 49170 35540 42500 47160 26540 40150 50440 14980 39110 29410 34950 50970 69280 117600 153600 40800 52220 114300 36880 60510 89820 33790 35650 81800 38870 59280 36840 31420 66380
2022-06-15 19840 31990 41320 49710 43190 43560 68440 26610 69860 127800 90550 25360 66710 59010 40140 61520 65120 82500 349100 36010 56680 50050 26770 95620 21190 136300 43500 174200 50070 39510 103200 26910 130200 97180 170100 40620 110400 34120 32960 38300 33180 66920 50800 67850 44660 73450 35000 48020 382900 37040 156600 31070 99510 62260 62420 37500 53530 131900 122200 34520 36060 32400 41830 66080 54910 23570 27130 161000 24330 185400 113000 16960 41180 125800 52090 38560 40680 28460 72240 87580 20250 109200 108300 35850 110100 120600 27510 43080 37950 50910 38520 29510 108100 41830 69670 33270 46460 14860 49940 97660 44620 28520 38190 43000 36890 31460 123600 34630 24280 26500 70970 41210 43220 27680 37170 31340 91620 47750 56580 91330 49910 27170 64330 31220 84300 32840 53630 82700 33720 34250 30000 40070 90590 53650 38060 30100 102600 37610 45670 95900 57650 29310 45580 40910 75510 45520 35710 44910 91330 60790 140100 60440 113400 47390 278500 121500 30930 97280 35600 33880 178000 76060 58110 20270 20680 195300 38440 95260 16530 34020 54700 73360 24180 29050 51610 53530 99350 28110 84100 51000 39860 108300 42380 108200 43770 29450 33040 53510 43980 36640 54160 24210 70250 79110 21760 34840 80280 108900 45660 111100 46650 20330 79960 53490 31610 31050 75320 90460 73010 52140 58520 101300 48260 29410 54300 249000 21440 67580 15480 77610 29220 24750 26360 94460 39670 29320 42060 35690 11930 14360 96930 111500 31700 38780 100100 30220 39600 191700 98560 52390 74030 46590 23930 53300 36960 98890 24750 28160 45620 29150 41590 30720 46830 39760 49520 37080 55340 83420 62020 103800 36240 53140 67710 46540 31070 30300 104600 72530 89250 41230 35650 100800 31730 74060 49600 237900 74480 81340 27550 29940 39940 64000 45790 42430 29770 45350 32980 63230 43690 44100 19190 107700 86190 38180 29900 115500 44330 119000 94500 91020 118500 78200 49200 35560 42530 47190 26560 40180 50470 14980 39120 29420 34970 51000 69300 117600 153700 40820 52250 114400 36900 60560 89850 33810 35670 87330 38900 59310 36860 31430 66420

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.