COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-05-05 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Latin America 2021-05-05

ArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-04-292021-04-252021-02-1812-032021-01-222021-03-242021-04-052021-04-29 --2021-01-182021-04-232021-04-112021-04-22 --2021-01-232021-02-032021-03-182021-01-2005-262021-01-072021-04-172021-03-252021-01-10 --2021-04-092021-04-05
Peak daily increment 23521 58 106 1122 2113 74847 7095 17622 1589 1958 657 1320 63 1356 662 16981 177 3354 2553 8679 81 5314 1391
Days since peak 6 10 76 153 103 42 30 6 107 12 24 13 102 91 48 105 344 118 18 41 115 26 30
Last total 3071496 10576 3915 12680 310572 14930183 1222949 2934611 260535 268561 393048 69997 231289 13829 13149 216964 46194 2355985 6989 365975 288974 1818689 10696 12105 209867 202578
Last daily increment 24079 0 31 5 1588 73295 3885 14806 2555 491 1806 270 1194 173 14 1131 107 3021 0 356 2307 0 73 399 2921 771
Last week 116553 227 77 34 8741 339505 31958 92677 12153 2347 12359 799 5042 723 132 5888 780 15051 91 1757 12109 35350 410 1607 14133 6192
Previous peak date10-1910-17 -- --07-1708-0406-062021-01-1609-1807-2604-2408-0507-1809-2106-0406-2809-2210-05 -- -- --08-0208-1409-18 --09-08
Previous peak daily increment 14378 104 1578 45270 7349 17013 1284 1405 7778 420 2590 66 177 795 160 22833 8380 89 144 1085
Low between peaks 5479 7 93 19229 1343 3454 400 -4305 79 423 6 305 50 4599 1490 1 276

Confirmed count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-06 to 2021-05-12

DateArgentinaBahamasBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-05-05 3071496 10576 310572 14930183 1222949 2934611 260535 268561 393048 69997 231289 13829 216964 46194 2355985 365975 288974 1818689 10696 12105 209867 202578
2021-05-06 3102000 10640 310800 14989000 1232000 2955000 263000 269100 394700 70070 233600 13910 217900 46320 2361000 366300 292000 1832000 10760 12520 213700 203600
2021-05-07 3129000 10710 312300 15060000 1240000 2973000 265100 269600 396300 70200 235400 14070 218100 46590 2365000 366600 294000 1847000 10830 12840 217000 205100
2021-05-08 3146000 10770 314100 15125000 1246000 2989000 267100 270000 398300 70330 236500 14180 218600 46790 2369000 366900 296100 1851000 10900 13160 219600 206400
2021-05-09 3158000 10820 314300 15153000 1253000 3004000 268900 270600 400200 70460 236700 14270 219300 46950 2370000 367100 297500 1860000 10970 13450 221500 207500
2021-05-10 3174000 10870 316100 15181000 1258000 3016000 270700 270900 400700 70600 236900 14300 220000 47100 2371000 367300 299400 1864000 11030 13660 223400 208600
2021-05-11 3198000 10920 316600 15248000 1261000 3030000 272400 271200 402700 70730 238000 14380 220700 47230 2374000 367600 301500 1867000 11090 13920 225700 209700
2021-05-12 3220000 10970 318000 15318000 1265000 3045000 274100 271600 404500 70860 239300 14540 221600 47360 2377000 368000 303600 1870000 11150 14200 228500 210800

Confirmed count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-06 to 2021-05-12

DateArgentinaBahamasBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-05-05 3071496 10576 310572 14930183 1222949 2934611 260535 268561 393048 69997 231289 13829 216964 46194 2355985 365975 288974 1818689 10696 12105 209867 202578
2021-05-06 3096000 10610 311100 14985000 1229000 2950000 262700 269000 395400 70150 232600 13960 217900 46320 2359000 366200 291400 1822000 10770 12420 212700 203500
2021-05-07 3121000 10670 312300 15048000 1236000 2967000 264300 269400 396800 70270 233900 14100 218600 46470 2362000 366400 293400 1833000 10840 12640 215300 204600
2021-05-08 3141000 10730 313700 15109000 1242000 2983000 265900 269800 398300 70390 234900 14210 219400 46620 2365000 366600 295300 1838000 10900 12850 217800 205600
2021-05-09 3157000 10780 314000 15134000 1249000 2999000 267400 270200 399700 70510 235300 14320 220200 46730 2367000 366800 296900 1845000 10960 13080 219900 206500
2021-05-10 3176000 10840 315000 15160000 1254000 3014000 268900 270600 400400 70630 235900 14390 221000 46850 2369000 366900 298800 1850000 11020 13210 222000 207400
2021-05-11 3200000 10890 315600 15230000 1258000 3029000 270400 271000 401400 70750 236900 14480 221800 46940 2372000 367100 301000 1854000 11080 13400 224300 208300
2021-05-12 3222000 10950 316500 15298000 1262000 3045000 271800 271400 402600 70860 238100 14600 222600 47010 2375000 367300 303100 1861000 11140 13620 227000 209200

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed