COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-05-13 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Latin America 2021-05-13

ArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-04-142021-04-252021-02-1812-032021-01-222021-03-242021-04-10 -- --2021-01-182021-05-042021-04-112021-04-13 --2021-01-232021-02-032021-03-182021-01-2005-262021-01-072021-04-172021-04-09 -- --2021-04-092021-04-05
Peak daily increment 23311 58 106 1122 2113 74847 7211 1589 2003 665 1319 63 1356 662 16981 177 3354 2680 8725 5275 1368
Days since peak 29 18 84 161 111 50 33 115 9 32 30 110 99 56 113 352 126 26 34 34 38
Last total 3242103 11024 3959 12709 324868 15433989 1266601 3067879 279926 274319 405783 70915 238787 14845 13255 222992 47020 2375115 7086 369455 307457 1865639 11572 14814 231901 211838
Last daily increment 26531 58 2 2 2290 74592 6153 19160 3039 822 1151 0 1105 186 28 0 98 3632 0 525 2568 0 145 397 3799 890
Last week 123969 251 28 23 10678 351540 30823 99253 14440 4361 8895 660 5091 772 91 4662 592 13241 97 2693 13224 41182 639 2094 15755 6657
Previous peak date10-1910-17 -- --07-1708-0406-062021-01-1609-1407-2604-2408-0507-1809-2106-0406-2809-2210-05 -- -- --08-0208-1309-18 --09-08
Previous peak daily increment 14378 104 1578 45270 7349 17013 1226 1405 7778 420 2590 77 177 795 160 22833 8379 94 144 1085
Low between peaks 5479 7 93 19229 1343 400 -4305 70 423 6 305 50 4599 1490 276

Confirmed count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2021-05-14 to 2021-05-20

DateArgentinaBahamasBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-05-13 3242103 11024 324868 15433989 1266601 3067879 279926 274319 405783 70915 238787 14845 222992 47020 2375115 369455 307457 1865639 11572 14814 231901 211838
2021-05-14 3261000 11080 324900 15495000 1275000 3084000 280800 274300 409700 71050 240600 14980 224000 47120 2379000 369500 309800 1873000 11700 15270 234500 212900
2021-05-15 3276000 11140 327100 15553000 1282000 3100000 280800 274500 411800 71160 242100 15110 225100 47310 2383000 369700 312000 1888000 11790 15690 237100 214200
2021-05-16 3286000 11200 327100 15584000 1289000 3115000 280800 275200 413200 71290 242400 15240 226000 47460 2384000 370000 313400 1894000 11890 15990 238800 215400
2021-05-17 3301000 11250 328200 15606000 1295000 3130000 284900 275600 414500 71410 242800 15350 226900 47580 2385000 370200 315200 1896000 11990 16030 240700 216500
2021-05-18 3327000 11300 329300 15674000 1300000 3145000 286300 275900 415500 71520 244000 15470 227800 47700 2388000 370500 317500 1899000 12090 16310 243400 217500
2021-05-19 3350000 11350 331300 15747000 1304000 3160000 289300 276500 417300 71640 245400 15580 228600 47810 2390000 371000 319900 1907000 12190 16780 245800 218600
2021-05-20 3374000 11390 333300 15814000 1309000 3175000 292100 277200 418800 71760 246400 15690 229500 47910 2394000 371400 322300 1909000 12290 17180 249100 219600

Confirmed count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2021-05-14 to 2021-05-20

DateArgentinaBahamasBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-05-13 3242103 11024 324868 15433989 1266601 3067879 279926 274319 405783 70915 238787 14845 222992 47020 2375115 369455 307457 1865639 11572 14814 231901 211838
2021-05-14 3264000 11080 325900 15509000 1273000 3085000 282100 274900 407200 71050 239800 14980 223700 47120 2378000 369800 309800 1872000 11690 15240 234600 212800
2021-05-15 3281000 11120 327700 15567000 1278000 3101000 283000 275300 408800 71160 240700 15090 224600 47260 2381000 370000 311700 1884000 11770 15650 236900 213700
2021-05-16 3295000 11160 328000 15598000 1284000 3116000 283900 275900 409900 71270 241000 15200 225500 47360 2382000 370200 313300 1890000 11850 15950 238700 214600
2021-05-17 3312000 11230 328900 15621000 1289000 3132000 287200 276400 410900 71380 241300 15310 226300 47450 2384000 370400 315000 1892000 11920 16110 240700 215500
2021-05-18 3334000 11270 329600 15687000 1292000 3147000 288700 276800 411800 71490 242100 15410 227100 47520 2386000 370600 317100 1896000 12000 16410 243200 216400
2021-05-19 3356000 11320 330700 15753000 1296000 3162000 290700 277200 413100 71610 243000 15520 227900 47580 2389000 370800 319200 1902000 12070 16840 245500 217200
2021-05-20 3377000 11370 332100 15814000 1301000 3177000 292800 277700 414500 71720 243700 15630 228700 47680 2391000 371000 321400 1905000 12160 17240 248300 218000

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed