COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-06-04 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Latin America 2021-06-04

ArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd) --2021-04-252021-02-1812-032021-06-012021-03-24 -- -- -- --2021-05-022021-04-112021-04-192021-05-132021-01-192021-02-032021-03-182021-01-2005-262021-01-07 --2021-04-09 --2021-05-292021-04-092021-05-16
Peak daily increment 60 106 1122 3416 74846 2043 675 1349 126 63 1356 662 16980 177 3354 8725 551 5275 1654
Days since peak 40 106 183 3 72 33 54 46 22 136 121 78 135 374 148 56 6 56 19
Last total 3915397 11930 4029 12861 383457 16841408 1411346 3518046 327979 298414 430739 74141 259954 17459 15058 241039 48638 2429631 7481 381122 368183 1976166 16009 25801 308490 239252
Last daily increment 30950 0 3 21 3000 37936 8245 30000 2200 1295 922 0 1321 83 127 657 0 2809 0 915 3481 10734 333 529 4079 1239
Last week 183134 185 17 70 16743 369808 41749 154985 13877 7888 5998 895 6117 637 930 4087 264 18128 157 3694 17570 28611 1494 2800 20318 7809
Previous peak date10-1610-17 -- --2021-01-2208-0406-062021-01-1509-142021-01-1804-2408-0507-1809-2106-0206-2809-2210-05 -- --06-2708-0208-1309-18 --09-08
Previous peak daily increment 14331 104 2113 45270 7349 18367 1226 1589 7778 420 2590 66 175 795 160 22832 155 8380 94 117 1085
Low between peaks 7 704 19228 -4305 70 423 13 6 305 50 4599 1490 4 276

Confirmed count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2021-06-05 to 2021-06-11

DateArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-06-04 3915397 383457 16841408 1411346 3518046 327979 298414 430739 74141 259954 17459 15058 241039 48638 2429631 381122 368183 1976166 16009 25801 308490 239252
2021-06-05 3949000 386100 16923000 1421000 3544000 329300 299900 432500 74300 260700 17640 15090 241800 48700 2430000 381900 371200 1980000 16220 25910 312000 240500
2021-06-06 3971000 387600 16963000 1429000 3569000 329700 301300 433800 74420 260900 17750 15090 242900 48860 2431000 382400 373900 1983000 16390 26460 314800 241500
2021-06-07 3997000 389600 16991000 1436000 3592000 335000 302300 434200 74560 260900 17790 15090 243800 48970 2431000 382900 376600 1988000 16580 26680 317800 242600
2021-06-08 4025000 391800 17063000 1442000 3611000 337300 303200 435500 74690 262200 17920 15090 244600 49050 2435000 383700 379100 1989000 16770 27080 321000 243700
2021-06-09 4053000 394200 17148000 1448000 3629000 339600 304200 436700 74830 263400 18090 15090 245300 49130 2438000 384400 381600 1998000 16960 27480 324300 244800
2021-06-10 4085000 396600 17222000 1457000 3646000 341700 305700 437800 74970 264700 18190 15090 246100 49200 2441000 385200 384000 1999000 17150 27980 327600 246000
2021-06-11 4117000 399100 17264000 1464000 3662000 343700 306800 438700 75110 265900 18260 15090 246800 49260 2443000 385900 386500 2006000 17340 28540 331000 247100

Confirmed count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2021-06-05 to 2021-06-11

DateArgentinaBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-06-04 3915397 383457 16841408 1411346 3518046 327979 298414 430739 74141 259954 17459 15058 241039 48638 2429631 381122 368183 1976166 16009 25801 308490 239252
2021-06-05 3947000 386100 16913000 1420000 3544000 328900 299800 431800 74290 260900 17580 15170 241800 48690 2432000 381700 370900 1982000 16270 26290 312400 240300
2021-06-06 3976000 388100 16951000 1426000 3566000 329900 301000 432300 74430 261300 17670 15230 242500 48770 2434000 382000 373000 1984000 16490 26860 315700 241300
2021-06-07 4004000 390200 16977000 1432000 3588000 333400 302000 432500 74570 261700 17740 15290 243100 48830 2435000 382200 375300 1988000 16690 27290 319100 242200
2021-06-08 4035000 392400 17048000 1437000 3610000 335400 303100 433200 74710 262600 17850 15360 243800 48880 2438000 382600 377700 1990000 16870 27770 322600 243200
2021-06-09 4063000 394700 17127000 1441000 3633000 337600 304200 433800 74850 263500 17980 15440 244400 48920 2441000 382900 380300 1996000 17070 28240 326100 244200
2021-06-10 4097000 396800 17198000 1448000 3655000 339700 305500 434500 74990 264300 18090 15530 244900 48960 2444000 383300 383100 1998000 17290 28740 329500 245100
2021-06-11 4132000 399000 17252000 1456000 3678000 341800 306700 435000 75130 265200 18170 15610 245500 49010 2446000 383600 385500 2001000 17560 29280 333100 246000

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed