COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-07-03 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Latin America 2021-07-03

ArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-05-272021-04-252021-02-1812-032021-06-022021-03-242021-06-04 --2021-05-172021-01-182021-04-232021-04-112021-06-242021-06-242021-06-082021-02-032021-03-182021-01-2005-262021-01-072021-06-022021-04-092021-06-042021-05-242021-04-092021-05-16
Peak daily increment 32514 60 106 1122 2983 74846 7289 2464 1589 2035 675 1429 204 165 1356 662 16980 177 3354 2997 8725 262 529 5275 1698
Days since peak 37 69 135 212 31 101 29 47 166 71 83 9 9 25 150 107 164 403 177 31 85 29 40 85 48
Last total 4526473 12735 4082 13343 444090 18742025 1566461 4324230 371206 328376 462142 79790 301189 20305 18658 266918 50242 2537457 8178 407330 427542 2057554 22203 33313 372178 276395
Last daily increment 14034 0 0 0 1206 54556 3848 26928 0 815 985 1024 2285 74 0 1744 0 6265 0 1317 1224 0 140 160 761 1190
Last week 121226 268 7 206 10155 321427 19358 165514 10201 5598 7806 1218 9594 428 695 7290 237 31665 258 6664 9212 11497 954 1115 6312 6760
Previous peak date10-1910-17 -- --2021-01-2208-0406-062021-01-1609-1407-2604-2408-0507-1809-2106-0406-2809-2210-05 -- -- --08-0208-1409-19 --09-08
Previous peak daily increment 14378 104 2113 45270 7348 17013 1226 1405 7778 420 2590 66 177 795 160 22832 8380 89 119 1085
Low between peaks 5479 7 704 19228 1343 308 400 -4305 70 423 13 5 305 50 4599 1490 1 4 276

Confirmed count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-04 to 2021-07-10

DateArgentinaBahamasBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-07-03 4526473 12735 13343 444090 18742025 1566461 4324230 371206 328376 462142 79790 301189 20305 18658 266918 50242 2537457 8178 407330 427542 2057554 22203 33313 372178 276395
2021-07-04 4543000 12740 13350 446000 18845000 1571000 4358000 371500 329500 462900 79790 301800 20450 18780 267900 50290 2537000 8179 408400 429000 2065000 22360 33520 373700 277600
2021-07-05 4561000 12760 13350 449200 18897000 1574000 4382000 374800 330500 463600 79930 301900 20490 18940 268100 50360 2537000 8182 409200 430300 2068000 22520 33910 374700 278800
2021-07-06 4585000 12830 13350 451600 18972000 1576000 4406000 376500 331300 464700 80090 302900 20560 19080 268600 50410 2541000 8423 410500 431800 2069000 22680 34210 376000 280000
2021-07-07 4608000 12830 13350 453700 19038000 1578000 4432000 378200 332200 465800 80260 304000 20630 19200 269300 50460 2545000 8423 411700 433100 2072000 22830 34460 377300 281200
2021-07-08 4630000 12920 13350 455600 19106000 1580000 4458000 379700 333200 466600 80430 306300 20730 19310 270100 50510 2550000 8423 412900 434300 2077000 22990 34700 378200 282300
2021-07-09 4649000 12930 13360 457400 19172000 1584000 4486000 381200 334300 468500 80610 308600 20810 19430 271000 50550 2555000 8423 414100 435300 2079000 23140 34910 378800 283400
2021-07-10 4663000 12930 13370 459100 19224000 1588000 4513000 381200 335200 469400 80790 310400 20890 19530 271900 50600 2559000 8423 415200 436600 2079000 23290 35110 379900 284600

Confirmed count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-04 to 2021-07-10

DateArgentinaBahamasBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-07-03 4526473 12735 13343 444090 18742025 1566461 4324230 371206 328376 462142 79790 301189 20305 18658 266918 50242 2537457 8178 407330 427542 2057554 22203 33313 372178 276395
2021-07-04 4539000 12750 13360 445500 18775000 1570000 4353000 371800 329200 463000 80320 302500 20400 18730 268100 50270 2542000 8184 408200 428600 2060000 22340 33450 372900 277500
2021-07-05 4554000 12770 13370 446900 18812000 1573000 4381000 374100 330000 463500 80480 303200 20460 18870 268800 50310 2544000 8185 408600 429900 2062000 22470 33650 373700 278400
2021-07-06 4574000 12820 13380 448100 18881000 1576000 4409000 375400 330700 464100 80640 304300 20530 19000 269500 50340 2548000 8359 409400 431400 2063000 22600 33840 374800 279200
2021-07-07 4593000 12840 13400 449400 18942000 1577000 4437000 376800 331600 464800 80750 305400 20600 19120 270300 50360 2553000 8360 410100 432700 2065000 22740 34040 375900 280000
2021-07-08 4614000 12880 13410 450500 19018000 1580000 4465000 378100 332500 465100 80870 307100 20680 19250 271100 50390 2557000 8360 410700 433900 2069000 22870 34220 376900 280800
2021-07-09 4631000 12910 13430 451500 19101000 1584000 4493000 379400 333400 466100 80990 308500 20770 19380 271900 50420 2561000 8360 411300 435400 2072000 23010 34420 378300 281600
2021-07-10 4648000 12920 13450 452400 19178000 1588000 4522000 380000 334400 466600 81100 309900 20850 19500 272700 50440 2565000 8360 411900 436700 2073000 23150 34640 379300 282400

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed