COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-08-04 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Latin America 2021-08-04

ArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-05-27 --2021-02-1812-032021-06-012021-03-242021-06-042021-06-262021-05-172021-01-182021-04-232021-04-11 --2021-06-242021-06-08 --2021-07-252021-01-20 --2021-07-052021-06-022021-04-102021-06-052021-05-242021-04-092021-05-16
Peak daily increment 32516 105 1113 2893 74829 7273 29826 2460 1589 2035 674 193 179 167 16926 1080 2953 8699 261 529 5270 1699
Days since peak 69 167 244 64 133 61 39 79 198 103 115 41 57 10 196 30 63 116 60 72 117 80
Last total 4975616 15124 4433 14331 476097 20026533 1619183 4815063 412918 343186 489089 87498 377446 22643 20307 303387 53639 2901094 9853 438781 453794 2119068 25614 39345 381994 309218
Last daily increment 13736 113 11 47 832 40716 726 7084 1795 336 1387 0 4399 0 0 2815 96 20685 0 1037 427 2416 65 183 141 766
Last week 69691 579 68 217 4139 187164 5895 48234 7712 2007 3416 1439 15312 271 230 8826 1135 90997 383 5236 2099 10473 396 1098 807 5421
Previous peak date10-1910-16 -- --2021-01-2208-0406-062021-01-1609-1407-2604-2408-0507-1809-2106-042021-02-032021-03-1810-05 --2021-01-07 --08-0208-1309-19 --09-08
Previous peak daily increment 14376 107 2113 45351 7360 17013 1225 1408 7756 420 2699 66 177 1260 660 23278 3350 8364 89 119 1086
Low between peaks 5479 704 19228 1343 3453 262 400 -4346 71 13 5 41 4595 294 1487 1 4 276

Confirmed count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2021-08-05 to 2021-08-11

DateArgentinaBahamasBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-08-04 4975616 15124 14331 476097 20026533 1619183 4815063 412918 343186 489089 87498 377446 22643 20307 303387 53639 2901094 9853 438781 453794 2119068 25614 39345 381994 309218
2021-08-05 4996000 15330 14360 477900 20055000 1622000 4830000 414000 343700 490300 87860 379600 22790 20350 304800 53680 2909000 9940 440100 455000 2120000 25690 39600 382400 310500
2021-08-06 5013000 15470 14370 478300 20096000 1624000 4842000 415300 344200 491100 88090 382300 22900 20370 306300 53680 2916000 9960 441100 455600 2120000 25840 39860 382700 311600
2021-08-07 5026000 15620 14390 479800 20120000 1625000 4852000 415400 344600 491800 88320 384900 23010 20400 307500 53680 2931000 9980 442200 456100 2123000 25950 40090 382900 312700
2021-08-08 5034000 15770 14410 480100 20132000 1627000 4863000 415400 345000 492200 88540 385800 23030 20440 308600 53680 2935000 10020 443000 456600 2125000 26040 40200 382900 313600
2021-08-09 5046000 15910 14440 480700 20136000 1628000 4872000 415700 345400 492400 88770 386300 23040 20480 309600 53680 2939000 10100 443400 457100 2126000 26120 40290 383100 314600
2021-08-10 5062000 16060 14460 481400 20156000 1629000 4880000 419600 345700 492700 89000 389000 23120 20520 310500 53680 2956000 10500 444200 457600 2127000 26200 40400 383300 315500
2021-08-11 5074000 16210 14500 482300 20199000 1629000 4887000 421100 345900 493400 89240 392800 23140 20570 311300 53680 2974000 10500 445200 458000 2129000 26270 40590 383400 316400

Confirmed count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2021-08-05 to 2021-08-11

DateArgentinaBahamasBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-08-04 4975616 15124 14331 476097 20026533 1619183 4815063 412918 343186 489089 87498 377446 22643 20307 303387 53639 2901094 9853 438781 453794 2119068 25614 39345 381994 309218
2021-08-05 4989000 15210 14380 476900 20064000 1621000 4822000 414700 343500 490000 87680 380400 22710 20360 304800 53790 2920000 9880 439600 454200 2121000 25700 39540 382200 310000
2021-08-06 5001000 15310 14410 477200 20113000 1622000 4830000 415800 343800 490500 87940 383000 22780 20400 305900 53910 2932000 9880 440300 454400 2121000 25780 39770 382300 310800
2021-08-07 5010000 15410 14430 478000 20145000 1623000 4837000 416200 344100 490700 88140 385400 22860 20440 306600 54020 2948000 9880 441000 454600 2123000 25860 39980 382500 311600
2021-08-08 5019000 15450 14460 478200 20162000 1624000 4845000 416600 344300 490900 88350 386800 22890 20480 307300 54180 2956000 9900 441500 454800 2124000 25920 40120 382600 312200
2021-08-09 5029000 15570 14490 478600 20173000 1625000 4852000 417100 344600 491100 88560 388000 22930 20530 308300 54250 2963000 9910 441800 455100 2126000 25990 40260 382700 312900
2021-08-10 5042000 15690 14520 479200 20208000 1626000 4860000 419200 344800 491400 88850 390300 22990 20580 308900 54350 2977000 10200 442500 455500 2127000 26050 40400 382900 313500
2021-08-11 5054000 15810 14550 479700 20254000 1626000 4867000 420200 345100 491500 89120 392900 23030 20620 309700 54460 2991000 10200 443100 455800 2128000 26110 40590 383100 314100

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed