COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-09-14 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Latin America 2021-09-14

ArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-05-272021-07-262021-02-182021-09-062021-06-012021-03-242021-06-042021-06-26 --2021-01-182021-07-292021-04-112021-09-10 --2021-06-082021-08-132021-08-232021-08-13 --2021-07-032021-06-022021-04-10 --2021-05-242021-04-092021-05-16
Peak daily increment 32516 172 105 105 2893 74830 7273 29826 1589 3070 674 3679 179 1568 734 18494 1075 2953 8699 529 5270 1699
Days since peak 110 50 208 8 105 174 102 80 239 47 156 4 98 32 22 32 73 104 157 113 158 121
Last total 5229848 19601 6053 17967 495612 21019830 1644832 4932998 496736 353887 505278 99701 515756 28234 21271 353641 76987 3516043 13025 462447 459391 2162294 34637 47363 387028 348873
Last daily increment 3017 0 69 200 577 13406 292 1435 6952 345 0 0 4299 135 93 0 536 0 675 223 51 936 649 155 155 1226
Last week 14516 566 480 716 2094 91822 2686 9801 12752 1686 1021 3634 18066 1462 147 4747 3491 50872 675 1618 329 4758 2743 1080 946 6725
Previous peak date10-1910-17 --12-032021-01-2208-0406-062021-01-162021-05-1707-2604-2408-0507-182021-06-2406-042021-02-032021-03-1810-05 --2021-01-07 --08-022021-06-0409-19 --09-08
Previous peak daily increment 14376 104 1113 2113 45351 7360 17013 2460 1408 7756 420 2699 193 177 1356 660 23278 3350 8364 281 119 1086
Low between peaks 5479 7 2 704 19228 1343 3453 400 -4346 71 424 5 553 42 2152 294 1487 4 276

Confirmed count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-15 to 2021-09-21

DateArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-09-14 5229848 19601 6053 17967 495612 21019830 1644832 4932998 496736 353887 505278 99701 515756 28234 353641 76987 3516043 13025 462447 459391 2162294 34637 47363 387028 348873
2021-09-15 5241000 19710 6053 17990 496200 21051000 1645000 4935000 499100 354100 505600 99700 520400 28230 356000 77740 3543000 13130 463400 459500 2163000 35230 47580 387100 349900
2021-09-16 5249000 19900 6126 18090 496600 21088000 1646000 4938000 501900 354300 506400 100600 524000 28530 356800 78600 3563000 13130 464100 459600 2165000 35740 47790 387300 350900
2021-09-17 5256000 20060 6198 18120 496900 21109000 1647000 4940000 504500 354700 506700 100600 528700 28550 358100 79350 3571000 13130 464600 459600 2165000 36250 47980 387400 351900
2021-09-18 5260000 20090 6269 18120 497500 21125000 1647000 4941000 504500 354900 507000 100600 532100 28850 358500 80040 3593000 13220 465000 459700 2166000 36720 48200 387500 352800
2021-09-19 5265000 20090 6340 18120 497800 21139000 1648000 4943000 504600 355100 507300 100600 533200 29020 358500 80730 3600000 13220 465200 459700 2167000 37190 48340 387700 353800
2021-09-20 5269000 20300 6411 18380 497800 21142000 1648000 4944000 506400 355300 507400 101200 533300 29100 361000 81400 3601000 13220 465300 459800 2167000 37670 48420 387800 354700
2021-09-21 5272000 20360 6482 18550 498200 21156000 1648000 4945000 511400 355600 507600 101200 537600 29250 361300 82060 3606000 13450 465600 459800 2168000 38140 48580 387900 355700

Confirmed count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-15 to 2021-09-21

DateArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-09-14 5229848 19601 6053 17967 495612 21019830 1644832 4932998 496736 353887 505278 99701 515756 28234 353641 76987 3516043 13025 462447 459391 2162294 34637 47363 387028 348873
2021-09-15 5233000 19650 6128 18120 495900 21034000 1645000 4935000 499500 354100 505400 100000 519900 28340 354600 77390 3526000 13070 462700 459500 2163000 35170 47540 387200 349700
2021-09-16 5237000 19790 6212 18230 496100 21064000 1646000 4936000 501800 354400 505900 100600 523400 28580 355400 77910 3541000 13110 463000 459500 2164000 35480 47730 387300 350500
2021-09-17 5240000 19920 6294 18290 496300 21081000 1646000 4938000 503900 354700 506000 100700 527200 28670 356500 78490 3548000 13130 463300 459500 2165000 35900 47910 387400 351200
2021-09-18 5242000 19970 6374 18340 496600 21095000 1647000 4939000 504800 354900 506200 100800 530200 28910 357100 79110 3565000 13170 463500 459600 2165000 36230 48110 387500 351900
2021-09-19 5245000 20020 6454 18390 496700 21107000 1647000 4941000 505600 355200 506400 101000 532200 29050 357500 79680 3574000 13170 463700 459600 2166000 36600 48250 387600 352600
2021-09-20 5248000 20190 6535 18550 496800 21117000 1648000 4942000 507900 355400 506600 101400 533800 29150 359200 80330 3581000 13170 463800 459600 2167000 36890 48370 387700 353200
2021-09-21 5250000 20290 6615 18660 497100 21134000 1648000 4943000 510500 355600 506800 101500 537100 29290 360000 81010 3592000 13510 464100 459600 2167000 37250 48540 387700 353800

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed