COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-10-20 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Latin America 2021-10-20

ArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-05-272021-07-26 --2021-10-042021-06-012021-09-182021-06-042021-06-262021-09-192021-01-182021-07-292021-09-092021-08-242021-09-192021-06-082021-08-132021-08-232021-08-18 --2021-07-032021-06-022021-04-092021-09-172021-05-242021-04-092021-05-16
Peak daily increment 32513 172 186 2893 109476 7273 29826 2518 1589 3111 498 3774 237 179 1515 763 18308 1075 2948 8725 489 529 5275 1698
Days since peak 146 86 16 141 32 138 116 31 275 83 41 57 31 134 68 58 63 109 140 194 33 149 194 157
Last total 5275984 22092 13934 24948 508166 21680488 1674226 4984751 554604 373040 514087 110188 591460 34726 23406 373206 87723 3767758 16241 470855 460615 2192205 47477 54623 391522 396477
Last daily increment 1218 44 381 180 1032 15609 1228 1224 943 963 0 0 1474 118 82 0 56 5069 0 460 33 1034 193 218 164 1254
Last week 5981 512 1829 1186 3009 68251 8310 7708 4470 4909 1061 307 6847 594 579 1345 1001 23184 504 1286 314 4837 1616 1231 947 7734
Previous peak date10-1910-172021-02-1812-032021-01-222021-03-2406-062021-01-162021-05-1707-2604-242021-04-1107-182021-06-2406-042021-02-032021-03-1810-05 --2021-01-07 --08-022021-06-0809-19 --09-08
Previous peak daily increment 14378 104 87 1122 2113 74845 7348 17013 2464 1405 7778 675 2590 194 177 1356 662 22832 3354 8380 262 119 1085
Low between peaks 5479 7 2 704 16636 1343 3454 1145 400 -4305 33 423 58 5 553 42 2145 294 1490 77 4 276

Confirmed count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2021-10-21 to 2021-10-27

DateArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-10-20 5275984 22092 13934 24948 508166 21680488 1674226 4984751 554604 373040 514087 110188 591460 34726 23406 373206 87723 3767758 16241 470855 460615 2192205 47477 54623 391522 396477
2021-10-21 5277000 22090 14230 25240 508200 21701000 1676000 4986000 557400 373400 514600 111800 595100 35040 23410 373900 87850 3780000 16740 470900 460700 2193000 47770 54790 391600 398000
2021-10-22 5278000 22140 14550 25270 508800 21719000 1677000 4988000 559300 373900 514800 112000 598000 35210 23410 374400 88190 3788000 16850 471300 460800 2194000 48070 55010 391600 399500
2021-10-23 5279000 22150 14860 25270 508900 21732000 1678000 4990000 559700 374600 514900 112100 599800 35420 23480 374700 88430 3792000 16920 471400 460800 2195000 48350 55190 391700 400900
2021-10-24 5279000 22150 15170 25270 509200 21739000 1680000 4991000 559800 375200 515100 112100 600900 35540 23500 374700 88620 3795000 17020 471600 460900 2195000 48620 55390 391800 402200
2021-10-25 5280000 22420 15480 25500 509600 21747000 1681000 4992000 562300 376000 515300 112100 600900 35610 23580 375100 88800 3798000 17170 471700 461000 2196000 48900 55530 391900 403500
2021-10-26 5281000 22460 15800 25730 509800 21758000 1682000 4993000 563000 376600 516100 112100 601600 35690 23790 375900 88940 3801000 17170 471800 461000 2196000 49170 55660 392100 404900
2021-10-27 5282000 22520 16120 25940 510600 21771000 1683000 4994000 564000 377400 516300 112400 603200 35820 23870 376100 89080 3806000 17190 472100 461100 2197000 49450 55850 392200 406200

Confirmed count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2021-10-21 to 2021-10-27

DateArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-10-20 5275984 22092 13934 24948 508166 21680488 1674226 4984751 554604 373040 514087 110188 591460 34726 23406 373206 87723 3767758 16241 470855 460615 2192205 47477 54623 391522 396477
2021-10-21 5277000 22140 14280 25300 508400 21696000 1676000 4986000 555400 373800 514500 110900 593000 34850 23490 373400 87870 3773000 16270 471000 460700 2193000 47760 54810 391600 397600
2021-10-22 5278000 22180 14600 25500 508800 21711000 1677000 4987000 556400 374500 514600 111200 594700 34950 23540 373600 88070 3779000 16300 471100 460700 2194000 48020 55010 391700 398700
2021-10-23 5279000 22200 14920 25580 508900 21722000 1678000 4989000 556700 375200 514700 111400 595800 35090 23600 373800 88240 3782000 16320 471200 460700 2194000 48280 55190 391800 399600
2021-10-24 5279000 22220 15220 25660 509100 21728000 1680000 4990000 556800 375900 514800 111600 596600 35180 23660 374000 88380 3786000 16350 471300 460700 2195000 48540 55370 391800 400600
2021-10-25 5280000 22360 15530 25850 509400 21735000 1681000 4991000 558100 376600 514900 111700 596900 35260 23730 374300 88510 3789000 16410 471400 460800 2195000 48800 55510 391800 401500
2021-10-26 5280000 22390 15860 26100 509500 21749000 1682000 4992000 558800 377200 515200 111900 598100 35360 23820 374800 88600 3793000 16660 471500 460800 2196000 49060 55650 391900 402400
2021-10-27 5281000 22410 16180 26370 509900 21759000 1683000 4993000 559700 377800 515300 112300 599400 35480 23890 375100 88700 3799000 16710 471600 460800 2197000 49330 55820 391900 403200

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed