COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-12-23 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Latin America 2021-12-23

ArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-12-152021-10-182021-10-262021-10-142021-06-102021-09-18 --2021-06-262021-09-062021-11-132021-12-162021-11-062021-08-242021-09-182021-06-082021-08-132021-08-232021-08-112021-10-192021-06-292021-11-152021-12-072021-09-152021-12-132021-10-282021-10-05
Peak daily increment 5586 170 347 370 2614 92852 29569 2470 1083 600 1526 3774 232 179 1515 759 18310 141 1107 163 1610 485 761 232 1476
Days since peak 8 66 58 70 196 96 180 108 40 7 47 121 96 198 132 122 134 65 177 38 16 99 10 56 79
Last total 5428957 23380 27486 31444 570876 22230943 1796232 5115194 568860 412685 538218 121661 624866 38998 25945 378685 92279 3940401 17442 485512 465028 2271549 51542 87980 406127 442431
Last daily increment 13456 140 178 57 1909 3774 1482 2475 0 422 0 38 322 32 4 0 53 3319 0 719 235 2052 24 928 446 253
Last week 46667 385 360 198 10192 17212 7123 11925 322 1419 2089 224 1417 247 38 0 307 13136 51 2835 932 11369 181 4143 2228 2033
Previous peak date2021-06-052021-07-262021-07-1112-03 --2021-06-16 -- -- --2021-06-052021-07-292021-09-09 --2021-06-2406-042021-02-03 -- --05-26 --2021-06-082021-06-052021-06-052021-06-052021-06-06 --
Previous peak daily increment 25322 172 36 1113 72652 1203 3070 454 196 177 1356 145 2669 3719 261 365 3221
Low between peaks 898 28 7 2 17910 245 175 124 58 5 553 4 22 786 77 170 95

Confirmed count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2021-12-24 to 2021-12-30

DateArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-12-23 5428957 23380 27486 570876 22230943 1796232 5115194 568860 412685 538218 121661 624866 38998 92279 3940401 485512 465028 2271549 87980 406127 442431
2021-12-24 5440000 23470 27550 571700 22233000 1797000 5117000 569100 412900 539400 121800 625300 39070 92290 3943000 486600 465400 2272000 88840 406600 442900
2021-12-25 5448000 23520 27730 573400 22234000 1800000 5120000 569100 413100 539400 121900 625700 39130 92330 3945000 487100 465700 2274000 89710 406900 443700
2021-12-26 5455000 23580 27850 574000 22234000 1801000 5122000 569100 413400 539800 122300 625800 39200 92340 3948000 487800 466000 2275000 90300 407300 444200
2021-12-27 5463000 23640 27940 574000 22236000 1803000 5124000 569100 413600 540700 122300 625800 39220 92400 3949000 488400 466300 2275000 90660 407700 444700
2021-12-28 5471000 23710 28030 576600 22239000 1804000 5125000 569400 413800 541400 122400 626200 39260 92430 3950000 489100 466600 2277000 91430 408100 445100
2021-12-29 5479000 23770 28100 577000 22241000 1805000 5127000 569400 414000 541500 122400 626500 39300 92500 3953000 490100 466800 2278000 91930 408400 445500
2021-12-30 5488000 23850 28170 578600 22244000 1806000 5129000 569500 414200 541600 122400 626800 39340 92540 3956000 490500 467000 2280000 92700 408800 445900

Confirmed count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2021-12-24 to 2021-12-30

DateArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2021-12-23 5428957 23380 27486 570876 22230943 1796232 5115194 568860 412685 538218 121661 624866 38998 92279 3940401 485512 465028 2271549 87980 406127 442431
2021-12-24 5439000 23470 27570 572500 22233000 1797000 5117000 568900 413000 538700 121700 625100 39020 92330 3941000 486400 465100 2273000 88710 406500 442800
2021-12-25 5446000 23500 27660 574500 22235000 1799000 5119000 568900 413200 538700 121800 625400 39060 92380 3943000 486500 465200 2276000 89550 406700 443300
2021-12-26 5451000 23530 27710 575300 22235000 1800000 5121000 568900 413400 539000 122100 625400 39120 92400 3946000 486900 465300 2277000 90080 406900 443700
2021-12-27 5457000 23600 27770 575600 22237000 1801000 5122000 568900 413500 539900 122100 625400 39140 92450 3947000 487100 465600 2277000 90380 407200 444000
2021-12-28 5464000 23640 27870 577800 22241000 1803000 5124000 569200 413700 540600 122300 625800 39180 92480 3947000 487500 465700 2279000 91250 407500 444400
2021-12-29 5470000 23690 27970 578700 22244000 1804000 5125000 569200 413900 540900 122300 626100 39240 92530 3951000 487900 465800 2280000 91900 407700 444800
2021-12-30 5477000 23720 28050 580000 22246000 1805000 5127000 569200 414100 541500 122400 626400 39290 92560 3954000 488300 465900 2281000 92650 408000 445100

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed