COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-02-20 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Latin America 2022-02-20

ArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-202022-01-092022-01-192022-01-172022-01-142022-01-282022-02-142022-01-152022-01-252022-01-142022-01-182022-02-142022-01-072022-01-162022-01-172022-02-162022-01-142022-01-192021-08-192022-01-142022-01-242022-01-202022-01-182021-12-092022-01-202022-01-25
Peak daily increment 112562 997 826 814 10698 175007 36079 30553 6454 6246 8730 7478 2267 925 467 8065 1352 45555 167 10292 10229 51547 978 788 11129 2059
Days since peak 31 42 32 34 37 23 6 36 26 37 33 6 44 35 34 4 37 32 185 37 27 31 33 73 31 26
Last total 8827504 33052 53698 56079 889511 28218180 2851382 6047042 783437 571856 808925 147786 757588 62656 30226 404764 127610 5413425 17895 750760 634780 3496009 77716 123721 815704 510553
Last daily increment 4450 28 190 0 467 40813 32136 3381 0 304 0 0 988 18 64 0 94 5714 0 1625 0 5021 30 564 3337 0
Last week 79903 102 1803 561 4507 665913 198669 23785 16917 2154 9785 0 21631 391 243 12890 447 120719 104 7906 8425 46297 513 2826 33148 4606
Previous peak date2021-06-052021-10-182021-10-262021-10-142021-06-102021-09-182021-11-132021-06-262021-09-062021-06-052021-06-292021-11-062021-08-242021-09-182021-06-232021-08-132021-08-232021-08-1105-262021-06-292021-06-082021-06-052021-09-152021-06-052021-06-062021-10-05
Previous peak daily increment 25322 184 347 370 2614 92851 2476 29569 2470 1203 1229 1386 3774 232 153 1515 759 18310 176 1107 2668 3718 485 365 3221 1476
Low between peaks 898 -2 41 -8 287 2340 968 1351 -225 163 197 21 203 31 3 5 27 617 -35 129 -154 60 16 170 95 69

Confirmed count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2022-02-21 to 2022-02-27

DateArgentinaBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2022-02-20 8827504 53698 56079 889511 28218180 2851382 6047042 783437 571856 808925 757588 62656 30226 404764 127610 5413425 750760 634780 3496009 77716 123721 815704 510553
2022-02-21 8850000 53970 56860 890300 28329000 2884000 6052000 797300 572000 812400 758900 62750 30370 404800 127800 5448000 752300 636100 3503000 77850 124700 819800 511700
2022-02-22 8869000 54330 57420 894500 28594000 2914000 6060000 803900 572700 821900 762600 63270 30490 405000 128200 5476000 761200 643400 3539000 78430 125400 824700 514900
2022-02-23 8884000 54630 57740 896800 28788000 2945000 6066000 808900 573000 828200 767000 63580 30540 407300 128600 5511000 766600 647900 3561000 78790 125700 829300 517100
2022-02-24 8905000 54910 57970 898200 28945000 2976000 6072000 813200 573300 833000 771100 63790 30600 408000 128800 5533000 770100 650900 3575000 79040 126400 833500 518700
2022-02-25 8926000 55170 58180 899400 29092000 3008000 6077000 817300 573500 837400 774400 63970 30660 408000 129000 5557000 773100 653600 3588000 79260 127100 837800 520200
2022-02-26 8927000 55420 58180 900100 29220000 3041000 6082000 817300 573600 840900 777800 64100 30660 408000 129200 5595000 775200 655500 3597000 79420 127600 841900 521400
2022-02-27 8927000 55670 58180 900600 29340000 3073000 6087000 817300 573800 844200 778500 64200 30690 408000 129400 5599000 776900 657200 3604000 79560 128100 846000 522600

Confirmed count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2022-02-21 to 2022-02-27

DateArgentinaBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2022-02-20 8827504 53698 56079 889511 28218180 2851382 6047042 783437 571856 808925 757588 62656 30226 404764 127610 5413425 750760 634780 3496009 77716 123721 815704 510553
2022-02-21 8834000 53900 56450 890900 28261000 2883000 6049000 792900 572200 812700 758100 62740 30290 404900 127600 5418000 752900 637800 3505000 77860 124200 819700 511400
2022-02-22 8842000 54320 56910 894800 28417000 2912000 6052000 799700 572800 816400 761900 62920 30350 405200 127800 5431000 757700 641500 3519000 78090 124700 825300 512900
2022-02-23 8849000 54650 57210 897700 28566000 2944000 6056000 805000 573300 819600 766300 63060 30370 409700 127900 5460000 761000 644500 3528000 78290 124900 830900 514100
2022-02-24 8859000 54950 57430 900100 28704000 2979000 6059000 809700 573800 823800 770600 63170 30410 410000 127900 5478000 763500 648200 3537000 78460 125600 836200 515200
2022-02-25 8874000 55260 57710 902400 28865000 3017000 6063000 815400 574200 826500 774400 63250 30460 410000 128200 5503000 765700 650300 3543000 78620 126300 842400 516200
2022-02-26 8877000 55530 57800 904500 29008000 3054000 6067000 816300 574600 829100 778100 63350 30470 410200 128300 5544000 766800 652300 3550000 78740 127100 847400 517200
2022-02-27 8880000 55770 58020 906500 29059000 3091000 6070000 817800 575300 831700 779200 63420 30500 410600 128500 5550000 770100 654300 3556000 78850 127600 851400 518200

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed