COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-05-19 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Latin America 2022-05-19

ArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-132022-01-092022-05-052022-01-172022-01-142022-01-282022-02-082022-01-152022-05-102022-01-142022-01-152022-02-142022-02-082022-01-162022-01-172022-02-162022-01-142022-04-072021-08-192022-05-112022-01-242022-01-192022-01-182022-05-062022-01-202022-01-25
Peak daily increment 112478 942 572 814 10699 182433 36050 30553 4539 6246 8554 8311 3374 925 494 8075 1352 21585 166 3046 8637 47146 944 488 11003 2156
Days since peak 126 130 14 122 125 111 100 124 9 125 124 94 100 123 122 92 125 42 273 8 115 120 121 13 119 114
Last total 9135308 34060 78138 58332 906743 30701900 3623889 6099111 877533 581044 873609 162089 854891 64082 30734 424771 133538 5752441 18491 821500 649929 3574182 80240 156940 908078 523174
Last daily increment 0 49 371 117 281 0 6939 3795 0 383 1067 0 817 62 9 0 288 0 0 3842 0 -1556 0 613 0 55
Last week 33989 230 2293 436 749 37161 27921 3795 11369 708 1341 0 3014 310 21 324 1558 6789 0 18277 211 2666 232 3469 5538 253
Previous peak date2021-06-052021-07-262022-01-192021-10-142021-06-102021-09-182021-11-132021-06-262022-01-252021-06-052021-06-292021-11-062021-08-242021-09-1806-042021-08-132021-08-232022-01-1905-262022-01-142021-06-082021-06-052021-09-152021-12-092021-06-062021-10-05
Previous peak daily increment 25322 172 826 370 2614 92852 2476 29569 6209 1203 1229 1196 3774 232 180 1515 759 43483 175 10293 2669 3719 485 788 3221 1476
Low between peaks 898 -2 84 -8 287 2340 968 1351 283 163 197 8 203 31 4 5 27 2342 -26 189 -154 60 16 234 95 69

Confirmed count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-20 to 2022-05-26

DateArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2022-05-19 9135308 34060 78138 58332 906743 30701900 3623889 6099111 877533 581044 873609 854891 64082 424771 133538 5752441 821500 649929 3574182 80240 156940 908078 523174
2022-05-20 9138000 34090 78550 58480 906800 30746000 3627000 6101000 877500 581100 873600 855300 64130 425000 133700 5752000 824700 650000 3575000 80240 157100 909900 523200
2022-05-21 9138000 34090 78950 58540 906800 30768000 3631000 6102000 877500 581100 873700 855800 64150 425000 134000 5752000 826900 650000 3575000 80240 158000 910800 523200
2022-05-22 9138000 34090 79330 58600 906800 30776000 3635000 6105000 877500 581100 873700 855800 64190 425100 134200 5752000 829600 650000 3576000 80240 158400 911800 523300
2022-05-23 9143000 34100 79700 58690 906800 30788000 3638000 6107000 877500 581100 873900 855800 64220 425300 134400 5756000 832100 650300 3576000 80240 158600 912800 523300
2022-05-24 9143000 34120 80070 58760 906900 30797000 3640000 6109000 877700 581100 873900 856400 64260 425400 134600 5756000 834700 650300 3576000 80240 159100 913700 523300
2022-05-25 9143000 34140 80440 58820 907000 30801000 3644000 6111000 880600 581200 873900 857000 64300 425400 134700 5756000 837400 650300 3577000 80240 159500 914600 523400
2022-05-26 9143000 34160 80810 58910 907100 30806000 3650000 6113000 881000 581300 874800 857800 64340 425500 134900 5756000 840200 650400 3577000 80240 160100 915600 523400

Confirmed count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-20 to 2022-05-26

DateArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2022-05-19 9135308 34060 78138 58332 906743 30701900 3623889 6099111 877533 581044 873609 854891 64082 424771 133538 5752441 821500 649929 3574182 80240 156940 908078 523174
2022-05-20 9135000 34080 78510 58450 906800 30717000 3629000 6100000 879000 581200 874200 855500 64130 424800 133800 5753000 825500 650000 3575000 80260 157100 909000 523200
2022-05-21 9136000 34100 78940 58500 906900 30733000 3633000 6100000 879600 581200 874400 856000 64170 424900 134000 5753000 828400 650000 3575000 80290 158000 909800 523200
2022-05-22 9147000 34120 79270 58550 907000 30739000 3637000 6101000 880100 581300 874400 856000 64210 424900 134200 5753000 830900 650000 3575000 80320 158400 910600 523300
2022-05-23 9150000 34140 79590 58620 907000 30749000 3640000 6101000 880700 581300 874600 856100 64240 425000 134700 5757000 833300 650100 3576000 80350 158700 911300 523300
2022-05-24 9150000 34160 80010 58710 907100 30757000 3643000 6101000 882000 581400 874700 856600 64280 425200 134900 5758000 835700 650200 3576000 80440 159100 913700 523300
2022-05-25 9150000 34190 80400 58770 907200 30771000 3646000 6102000 885700 581500 874700 856900 64330 425200 135100 5758000 839700 650200 3577000 80490 159600 914500 523400
2022-05-26 9151000 34220 80920 58840 907300 30790000 3650000 6102000 886400 581500 875000 857500 64370 425200 135300 5758000 842200 650300 3577000 80540 160200 915200 523400

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed