COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-05-27 Latin American Countries


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Latin America 2022-05-27

ArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHaitiHondurasJamaicaMexicoNicaraguaPanamaParaguayPeruSurinameTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-132022-01-092022-05-052022-01-172022-01-142022-01-282022-02-082022-01-15 --2022-01-142022-01-152022-02-142022-02-082022-01-162022-01-172022-02-162022-01-142022-04-072021-08-192022-05-182022-01-242022-01-192022-01-182022-05-142022-01-202022-01-25
Peak daily increment 112478 942 638 814 10699 182433 36050 30553 6246 8554 7430 3374 925 494 8075 1352 21585 166 3738 8637 47146 913 497 11003 2156
Days since peak 134 138 22 130 133 119 108 132 133 132 102 108 131 130 100 133 50 281 9 123 128 129 13 127 122
Last total 9178795 34572 80038 59049 908383 30921145 3675085 6103455 891038 582693 876009 162755 859311 64521 30781 425113 135663 5759773 18491 847375 650661 3578364 80416 160493 916388 523540
Last daily increment 0 91 178 100 425 40633 9223 0 0 500 0 0 682 29 0 0 0 0 0 3678 378 457 0 335 0 96
Last week 43487 360 1590 630 1159 158732 38092 4344 13505 1540 2400 666 2935 293 35 342 1759 7332 0 19255 378 3073 176 2613 8310 274
Previous peak date2021-06-052021-07-262022-01-192021-10-142021-06-102021-09-182021-11-132021-06-262022-01-252021-06-052021-06-292021-11-062021-08-242021-09-1806-042021-08-132021-08-232022-01-1905-262022-01-142021-06-082021-06-052021-09-212021-12-092021-06-062021-10-05
Previous peak daily increment 25322 172 826 370 2614 92852 2476 29569 6209 1203 1229 1526 3774 232 180 1515 759 43483 175 10293 2669 3719 480 788 3221 1476
Low between peaks 898 -2 84 -8 287 2340 968 1351 163 197 5 203 31 4 5 27 2342 -26 136 -154 60 16 234 95 69

Confirmed count forecast Latin America (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-28 to 2022-06-03

DateArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2022-05-27 9178795 34572 80038 59049 908383 30921145 3675085 6103455 891038 582693 876009 162755 859311 64521 425113 135663 5759773 847375 650661 3578364 160493 916388 523540
2022-05-28 9183000 34600 80280 59050 908500 30921000 3675000 6104000 891000 582800 876000 162900 859900 64570 425200 135900 5761000 850500 650700 3579000 161300 916700 523600
2022-05-29 9188000 34600 80850 59050 908500 30933000 3675000 6104000 891000 582800 876500 162900 859900 64630 425200 136000 5761000 851200 650700 3579000 161600 916700 523600
2022-05-30 9189000 34600 81260 59090 908500 30941000 3675000 6104000 891000 582800 876600 163000 859900 64690 425300 136200 5767000 852900 650700 3580000 161900 916900 523600
2022-05-31 9189000 34600 81600 59190 908500 30962000 3676000 6104000 891800 582800 876600 163100 860400 64740 425400 136400 5767000 855100 650700 3580000 162500 917100 523700
2022-06-01 9189000 34600 81910 59260 908500 30976000 3680000 6104000 898800 582800 876600 163200 861100 64790 425500 136600 5767000 857400 650700 3580000 162900 917400 523700
2022-06-02 9189000 34600 82180 59340 908600 30996000 3686000 6104000 898900 582800 877500 163200 861800 64840 425500 136800 5767000 860100 650700 3581000 163300 917600 523700
2022-06-03 9189000 34600 82440 59420 908700 31031000 3693000 6104000 898900 582900 877700 163300 862400 64890 425500 137000 5767000 862800 651200 3581000 163600 917900 523800

Confirmed count average forecast Latin America (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-28 to 2022-06-03

DateArgentinaBahamasBarbadosBelizeBoliviaBrazilChileColombiaCosta RicaDominican RepublicEcuadorEl SalvadorGuatemalaGuyanaHondurasJamaicaMexicoPanamaParaguayPeruTrinidad and TobagoUruguayVenezuela
2022-05-27 9178795 34572 80038 59049 908383 30921145 3675085 6103455 891038 582693 876009 162755 859311 64521 425113 135663 5759773 847375 650661 3578364 160493 916388 523540
2022-05-28 9180000 34630 80170 59090 908600 30933000 3682000 6104000 891100 582900 876200 162900 859900 64570 425100 135700 5760000 850400 650700 3579000 161200 916600 523600
2022-05-29 9202000 34670 80570 59100 908600 30949000 3686000 6104000 892500 583000 876500 162900 860000 64620 425200 136000 5760000 852400 650700 3579000 161500 917500 523600
2022-05-30 9204000 34700 80790 59180 908700 30959000 3689000 6104000 893900 583100 876700 162900 860000 64660 425200 136200 5766000 854500 650700 3580000 161800 918400 523700
2022-05-31 9205000 34740 81130 59290 908800 30979000 3692000 6104000 898600 583200 876800 162900 860600 64710 425300 136500 5766000 857000 650700 3580000 162400 922000 523700
2022-06-01 9205000 34770 81480 59370 909000 30990000 3697000 6104000 904500 583300 876900 162900 861100 64780 425400 136600 5766000 860800 650800 3580000 162800 923200 523700
2022-06-02 9206000 34820 81840 59440 909100 31003000 3703000 6105000 906600 583400 877400 163100 861800 64840 425400 136800 5766000 863900 650800 3581000 163300 923800 523800
2022-06-03 9206000 34860 82100 59500 909200 31028000 3709000 6105000 908200 583500 877600 163100 862600 64900 425400 137100 5767000 867000 651000 3581000 163600 924700 523800

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed