U.S. Flu Forecasts --- 2009 Week 36 (version b, 10 September)

Regional Influenza Activity for week 36 (ending 12 September)

Week 36


Color coding is based on region-specific baselines.
Green and yellow: below baseline; orange: between baseline and 1.5 times baseline;
red: above 1.5 times baseline; dark red: above 3 times baseline; very dark red: above 6 times baseline.

1 Summary for week 36 (ending 12 September)

2 Current Influenza Activity

3 Expected Influenza Activity

Historically, there tends to be an increase in ILI% after Labor Day (when schools start; week 36 this year). However, this is normally offset by declines in the week before and afterwards.

4 Flu Season Forecasts of Influenza Activity

The one-year ahead forecasts use the average nowcasts for week 35 and 36 as the starting point for forecasting. Then two assumptions are used to capture pandemic flu activity:

If these assumptions hold, very high levels of ILI% should be expected.

5 References

6 Archive


The results reported here are based on forecast, and are therefore uncertain. These results are my personal opinion, based on extensive modeling, and not endorsed by either the CDC or Google.

Jurgen A. Doornik, University of Oxford, UK