COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-16 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-07-16

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-07-16

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-1504-2104-2904-2904-0904-1604-1704-1003-2803-2504-2303-2804-1803-3005-1404-0204-1803-3003-2305-09 --04-1004-1804-0304-0204-2104-0406-1006-3004-2003-2603-2603-3004-1604-2603-2705-1103-1804-1503-2805-1204-2204-0803-2804-0804-0804-2103-2904-1705-1004-1604-0303-3005-0504-2205-0605-0305-0804-0704-1704-1105-0304-1904-0204-2004-2204-1104-2003-2704-0404-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1004-2104-2104-1504-1604-2204-1904-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-0203-3004-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-0503-2903-2904-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2504-2304-1504-2504-1803-2607-0103-2304-1303-2604-1304-1903-2405-0305-0404-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-0804-2204-0704-2303-3103-2503-2604-1406-1004-1303-2503-2504-2203-3104-0204-2703-2203-3003-3005-2403-3003-2305-0403-2703-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-2703-2503-2804-2903-2704-2004-1803-2604-2603-2504-1805-0404-2203-2904-0804-0803-2704-1004-2004-1404-2205-1204-0104-0105-1104-2904-1404-1405-0404-0803-3004-2204-0804-0805-2403-1904-2103-3104-2004-1405-1404-1704-2904-1304-1404-0505-0704-2004-0803-2404-1804-2203-2804-2003-2703-2304-2004-2303-2005-2603-2304-1504-0104-1703-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2505-0904-1604-2603-2104-1504-1803-2703-2704-1503-2904-1504-1504-1403-3004-0104-2004-2404-1003-3003-3104-0604-0504-0804-0505-1103-2104-0704-1505-1204-1204-1703-3104-1304-1703-2504-1104-1703-2503-2705-1304-2703-2504-2204-1703-2303-2403-3103-2404-1104-1304-1805-0205-1004-0804-1804-2004-2104-1804-1403-1704-1505-0304-1504-0803-3004-1404-1404-1704-1504-1604-1603-2904-2004-1404-21
Peak daily increment 5 8 8 18 12 22 13 7 19 47 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 29 96 7 21 6 34 8 20 8 56 13 9 52 7 13 25 13 38 21 6 9 8 24 10 6 19 7 15 25 6 19 14 16 12 12 40 31 9 14 7 12 23 8 7 17 4 68 22 5 11 49 9 15 18 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 34 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 6 8 25 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 12 36 7 14 7 9 14 25 13 15 6 33 6 21 10 12 29 6 14 2 9 28 57 13 7 24 9 11 23 28 6 20 16 15 16 18 23 43 16 28 21 39 32 75 73 6 37 8 4 54 23 24 4 5 50 17 24 3 4 23 11 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 33 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 20 10 5 16 37 7 25 13 5 32 21 11 33 18 12 21 22 29 14 9 17 4 15 11 22 7 8 4 30 9 6 7 14 2 3 26 30 21 7 35 8 8 69 21 18 20 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 17 10 8 8 22 17 15 43 8 12 31 18 7 7 31 17 27 14 9 48 9 28 9 15 27 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 21 8 11 6 9 25 22 10 15 9 28 31 28 32 27 9 12 12 8 6 8 11 2 14 4 11 14 19 53 37 10 7 45 8 15 28 12 10 10 6 16 10 30
Days from 100 to peak -2 21 23 19 7 18 20 -4 10 14 34 8 25 12 40 2 25 13 13 31 11 8 10 -4 27 4 81 88 16 15 -6 7 27 18 14 45 -12 14 -6 50 24 3 13 7 10 28 -7 26 38 23 7 3 44 31 34 23 37 8 17 12 13 28 -7 30 35 0 20 15 10 21 7 -22 6 6 25 25 39 24 15 1 16 16 17 1 11 26 17 21 10 18 -3 1 16 3 -3 12 -6 18 19 35 -21 56 6 17 20 4 1 40 14 9 2 -6 31 7 11 -2 18 13 17 9 -15 19 8 90 2 7 11 10 20 9 31 22 16 6 0 7 31 9 21 18 32 7 15 8 27 81 9 12 -2 6 15 12 30 -30 -8 11 44 10 -47 -11 13 -29 11 26 3 32 38 -3 -12 10 27 12 -8 19 -15 22 -10 16 17 20 6 4 3 4 17 11 24 29 28 12 8 34 29 16 21 37 14 14 26 6 18 32 1 3 9 10 2 21 28 22 10 10 7 -10 20 8 14 13 7 4 -2 12 28 35 0 48 -12 14 1 24 14 22 7 14 -16 43 13 13 -4 19 27 3 18 14 5 24 11 5 -5 12 25 29 14 -3 9 6 19 10 7 50 -10 6 3 44 13 19 -5 15 18 1 9 13 9 7 36 19 -3 31 32 7 14 7 -4 17 14 16 14 36 13 24 -5 19 5 7 23 42 23 14 9 10 19 34 13 9 18 1 19 15 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 31 43 54 43 30 32 37 29 22 22 43 17 36 27 56 25 35 24 16 63 25 41 23 17 42 28 86 109 37 21 17 30 39 43 22 62 13 40 12 63 41 33 26 32 24 41 24 40 58 43 24 21 55 42 59 55 67 29 33 30 49 45 35 35 45 33 42 21 34 36 21 20 16 40 33 42 61 34 24 39 61 39 45 27 41 38 37 36 38 42 44 19 26 17 15 42 24 43 46 61 14 82 13 43 37 39 17 57 23 31 17 24 41 47 22 12 39 21 44 27 44 42 18 104 17 43 22 34 42 21 49 50 32 36 11 25 51 24 30 32 42 17 22 14 32 87 33 20 19 41 21 23 43 11 18 21 71 22 16 54 24 10 41 43 11 44 60 15 27 19 44 19 28 43 13 45 16 32 50 37 19 30 33 17 26 41 39 50 63 22 27 56 44 34 39 49 29 22 38 27 32 69 13 34 21 36 28 63 36 53 38 37 25 53 42 29 16 32 47 15 36 15 16 42 50 8 71 21 42 27 41 27 40 53 20 38 16 59 35 44 16 31 41 16 25 36 27 31 26 35 24 24 40 40 32 18 16 24 29 31 25 64 10 28 47 61 30 43 24 30 40 17 35 49 21 21 62 45 17 40 41 16 22 15 13 28 37 41 50 62 31 52 35 41 43 32 18 29 55 44 37 16 39 41 44 34 32 36 28 35 37 36
Last total 187 349 443 324 572 1312 784 261 721 1624 1935 598 809 943 572 340 1291 1071 4970 503 1174 1032 347 1893 488 820 383 4549 482 431 1757 280 785 1299 408 1526 526 287 430 456 1300 745 326 710 312 692 690 316 1250 802 733 428 698 2221 2000 505 276 290 672 712 343 314 902 202 3335 1349 248 435 1865 509 605 693 275 1307 256 2015 609 672 1312 1574 194 217 492 411 242 387 1645 601 872 419 434 167 422 1198 480 337 410 240 299 480 737 165 455 1284 377 539 225 557 340 963 552 694 302 763 383 767 385 710 1296 269 596 130 360 959 864 478 409 1123 540 514 1081 886 335 701 422 560 567 585 849 1548 744 2240 999 1375 884 3710 4549 370 1211 397 259 2476 1490 640 132 228 3022 343 1066 160 125 944 208 325 598 961 864 327 455 321 1540 782 1299 119 594 208 357 220 727 219 902 920 337 320 1188 1580 295 1190 856 454 1903 854 510 1376 664 504 1169 781 1133 702 392 771 196 538 268 1724 292 289 186 1972 369 327 388 595 96 135 1361 1704 561 393 1538 319 369 4094 1410 652 909 441 203 361 404 747 97 709 403 591 327 275 605 518 332 385 949 939 692 1455 337 525 1197 572 373 317 1651 970 1474 527 258 1776 433 1013 524 762 1544 346 321 212 616 628 495 255 876 357 562 347 274 825 1278 468 277 469 1761 1502 1037 1177 1328 432 554 462 456 334 400 478 72 723 155 522 482 796 2147 1261 476 411 2043 353 600 1395 401 404 418 435 630 413 912
Last daily increment 0 0 1 0 0 5 3 0 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 2 1 2 19 1 29 0 0 3 0 0 0 17 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 0 2 8 5 0 1 0 1 3 0 2 3 0 0 1 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 0 6 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 5 0 0 2 3 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 19 0 1 0 3 41 0 2 0 1 1 7 2 0 0 10 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 2 0 2 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 14 1 1 1 2 4 2 0 4 11 1 1 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 24 0 2 0 6 1 0 0 0 2 0 4 16 0 0 2 0 0 8 0 0 4 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 3 1 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 1 1 3 3 3 4 1 0 4 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 2 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
Last week 0 4 3 3 2 20 6 2 8 22 18 0 7 2 8 2 20 8 115 13 107 4 2 32 1 5 2 190 25 0 7 3 8 5 1 5 2 2 3 7 15 40 1 6 0 10 21 4 16 8 4 3 8 18 17 2 5 1 2 4 1 8 3 0 7 14 2 3 5 6 3 13 3 15 1 24 3 10 6 8 2 6 2 1 4 7 1 17 3 14 3 11 2 11 3 3 2 3 3 7 6 2 7 7 2 3 0 10 0 6 2 2 1 2 5 8 1 4 8 0 3 2 2 13 47 2 2 13 5 2 11 9 14 2 0 6 3 16 0 5 4 99 4 9 2 46 248 2 11 4 3 14 66 7 1 0 63 1 4 2 2 5 1 0 3 6 5 0 3 8 9 3 22 0 3 1 3 2 3 1 2 3 6 2 55 3 2 11 7 32 22 6 25 42 2 3 9 7 12 1 1 4 0 2 1 83 2 4 1 57 3 0 2 1 4 0 15 50 0 0 17 2 5 53 3 7 17 2 2 6 4 3 1 4 1 3 2 3 2 3 0 1 1 1 15 7 2 8 3 6 2 0 13 4 5 1 0 6 3 5 4 11 11 3 1 5 15 9 1 1 16 0 8 1 2 5 15 4 3 3 66 32 16 14 7 1 6 2 7 4 1 4 0 3 8 3 5 6 14 8 1 7 5 2 4 10 1 6 1 3 3 2 3
Days since peak 92 86 78 78 98 91 90 97 110 113 84 110 89 108 63 105 89 108 115 68 97 89 104 105 86 103 36 16 87 112 112 108 91 81 111 66 120 92 110 65 85 99 110 99 99 86 109 90 67 91 104 108 72 85 71 74 69 100 90 96 74 88 105 87 85 96 87 111 103 85 107 113 115 89 91 88 64 97 111 84 82 90 92 97 86 86 92 91 85 88 84 114 108 113 113 90 108 89 79 66 111 44 108 91 88 92 108 66 110 102 109 109 92 87 112 113 87 113 84 92 82 89 112 15 115 94 112 94 88 114 74 73 90 86 123 117 74 99 85 100 84 107 113 112 93 36 94 113 113 85 107 105 80 116 108 108 53 108 115 73 111 111 84 85 111 86 72 111 113 110 78 111 87 89 112 81 113 89 73 85 109 99 99 111 97 87 93 85 65 106 106 66 78 93 93 73 99 108 85 99 99 53 119 86 107 87 93 63 90 78 94 93 102 70 87 99 114 89 85 110 87 111 115 87 84 118 51 115 92 106 90 113 79 78 114 85 113 68 91 81 117 92 89 111 111 92 109 92 92 93 108 106 87 83 97 108 107 101 102 99 102 66 117 100 92 65 95 90 107 94 90 113 96 90 113 111 64 80 113 85 90 115 114 107 114 96 94 89 75 67 99 89 87 86 89 93 121 92 74 92 99 108 93 93 90 92 91 91 109 87 93 86

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-17 to 2020-07-23

DateAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBoltonBradfordBraintreeBrentBrighton and HoveBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCamdenCanterburyCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterCorbyCounty DurhamCoventryDacorumDartfordDerbyDoncasterDoverDudleyEalingEast DevonEast NorthamptonshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneEdenEnfieldFenlandFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGraveshamGreenwichHaringeyHarrowHaveringHerefordshireHillingdonHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIslingtonKetteringKirkleesLambethLeedsLeicesterLewishamLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneManchesterMiddlesbroughNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNorth WarwickshireNorthamptonNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonReadingRedbridgeRochdaleRotherhamSalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldSloughSolihullSouth CambridgeshireSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSt AlbansStaffordStockportSunderlandSwindonTamesideTelford and WrekinTendringThanetThurrockTraffordWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWatfordWealdenWest LindseyWestminsterWiganWiltshireWindsor and MaidenheadWolverhamptonWorthing
2020-07-16 1312 784 721 1624 1935 809 572 1291 1071 4970 503 1174 1893 4549 482 1757 785 456 1300 745 710 692 690 1250 802 698 2221 2000 314 3335 1349 509 693 1307 2015 672 1312 1574 217 387 601 419 167 1198 480 737 455 1284 557 963 767 1296 959 864 1123 1081 886 335 560 585 2240 1375 3710 4549 1211 2476 1490 640 3022 961 321 1540 1299 337 1188 1190 856 454 1903 854 510 1376 1169 781 1133 1724 1972 1361 1704 1538 4094 652 909 361 692 1455 525 572 1651 1776 762 1544 616 628 876 562 1278 1761 1502 1037 1177 1328 554 456 155 796 2147 1261 411 1395 404
2020-07-17 1315 786 722 1624 1942 811 573 1297 1073 4983 505 1198 1906 4577 486 1758 786 457 1302 751 710 694 693 1252 805 699 2225 2004 316 3337 1351 510 695 1310 2020 674 1313 1578 218 389 604 421 169 1200 480 745 456 1285 558 964 768 1297 961 880 1126 1084 888 337 561 588 2258 1376 3718 4598 1212 2479 1490 641 3033 962 323 1541 1301 338 1195 1192 858 458 1908 856 515 1383 1170 782 1135 1736 1980 1364 1714 1540 4105 653 911 362 694 1456 527 573 1653 1777 764 1547 618 628 879 563 1279 1769 1502 1039 1178 1329 557 457 155 797 2149 1262 411 1397 404
2020-07-18 1318 787 723 1624 1949 812 574 1300 1074 4995 507 1224 1912 4604 490 1760 787 458 1304 756 710 695 696 1254 807 700 2226 2009 318 3338 1353 511 697 1312 2020 676 1314 1579 218 390 607 424 171 1201 481 745 457 1285 560 965 770 1299 962 891 1128 1086 889 339 562 590 2276 1378 3726 4648 1213 2483 1491 642 3043 962 325 1541 1304 340 1202 1193 859 461 1914 857 520 1390 1172 783 1137 1747 1987 1367 1724 1543 4116 655 912 363 696 1458 530 574 1655 1778 765 1549 619 628 881 564 1281 1777 1502 1040 1180 1330 559 459 155 798 2150 1264 411 1398 404
2020-07-19 1320 789 724 1627 1956 814 576 1304 1075 5007 510 1251 1913 4631 494 1761 788 459 1306 762 710 697 699 1257 810 701 2228 2013 319 3340 1355 512 699 1315 2024 678 1315 1579 219 392 610 426 173 1202 481 745 459 1286 561 966 771 1300 964 903 1131 1089 890 340 563 593 2293 1379 3733 4697 1215 2487 1492 643 3053 963 327 1541 1306 341 1209 1195 861 465 1919 859 524 1397 1173 784 1139 1759 1994 1370 1733 1545 4127 656 914 364 698 1459 532 575 1657 1779 766 1552 621 628 884 565 1282 1784 1502 1042 1181 1331 561 460 155 800 2152 1265 411 1400 404
2020-07-20 1323 790 725 1631 1962 815 577 1309 1077 5018 512 1278 1921 4657 498 1763 789 460 1308 767 712 699 701 1259 812 701 2231 2017 321 3342 1356 513 701 1318 2028 680 1316 1581 219 393 612 428 175 1204 482 746 460 1287 563 967 772 1302 965 913 1133 1091 891 342 563 595 2310 1380 3740 4746 1216 2490 1493 644 3063 964 329 1542 1308 343 1216 1196 863 468 1924 861 529 1403 1174 785 1141 1769 2002 1373 1742 1547 4138 657 916 365 701 1461 534 576 1659 1780 768 1554 622 628 886 566 1284 1792 1502 1043 1184 1332 563 461 155 801 2154 1267 411 1402 404
2020-07-21 1326 792 726 1633 1969 817 579 1311 1078 5029 514 1306 1928 4684 502 1764 790 461 1309 773 712 700 704 1261 815 702 2231 2022 322 3343 1358 514 703 1320 2034 681 1317 1583 220 395 615 430 176 1205 482 748 461 1287 564 967 774 1303 967 923 1135 1093 893 344 564 598 2328 1382 3748 4796 1217 2494 1494 645 3073 964 331 1545 1311 344 1223 1198 864 471 1930 862 534 1410 1176 786 1143 1780 2009 1377 1750 1549 4149 659 917 365 703 1462 537 576 1661 1780 769 1557 623 628 889 567 1287 1800 1502 1045 1186 1333 566 462 155 802 2156 1268 411 1403 405
2020-07-22 1328 793 727 1638 1975 818 580 1315 1080 5040 516 1334 1932 4710 505 1766 791 463 1311 778 713 702 707 1263 817 703 2235 2026 324 3345 1360 515 706 1323 2037 683 1318 1584 221 397 617 432 178 1207 483 749 463 1288 565 968 775 1304 969 934 1138 1096 894 345 565 600 2345 1383 3755 4845 1218 2498 1494 646 3083 965 333 1547 1313 345 1229 1199 866 475 1935 864 539 1416 1177 787 1145 1791 2016 1380 1759 1551 4160 660 919 366 705 1463 539 577 1663 1781 770 1559 625 628 891 567 1290 1807 1502 1047 1187 1334 568 464 155 803 2158 1269 411 1405 405
2020-07-23 1331 794 728 1639 1982 820 582 1318 1081 5052 518 1363 1935 4737 509 1767 792 464 1313 783 714 703 710 1265 820 704 2239 2031 325 3347 1362 516 708 1326 2040 685 1319 1585 221 398 620 434 180 1208 483 749 464 1289 567 969 776 1306 970 944 1140 1098 895 347 566 603 2363 1384 3763 4895 1219 2501 1495 647 3093 966 335 1549 1315 347 1236 1201 868 478 1940 865 543 1423 1178 788 1147 1802 2023 1383 1768 1554 4171 661 920 367 708 1465 541 578 1665 1782 771 1562 626 628 894 568 1293 1815 1502 1048 1190 1335 570 465 155 804 2160 1271 411 1406 405

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-17 to 2020-07-23

DateAshfordAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBasildonBassetlawBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBoltonBradfordBraintreeBrentBrighton and HoveBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCamdenCanterburyCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterCorbyCounty DurhamCoventryDacorumDartfordDerbyDoncasterDoverDudleyEalingEast DevonEast NorthamptonshireEast StaffordshireEastbourneEdenEnfieldFenlandFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGraveshamGreenwichHaringeyHarrowHaveringHerefordshireHillingdonHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIslingtonKetteringKirkleesLambethLeedsLeicesterLewishamLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneManchesterMiddlesbroughNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNorth WarwickshireNorthamptonNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPrestonReadingRedbridgeRochdaleRotherhamSalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldSloughSolihullSouth CambridgeshireSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSt AlbansStaffordStockportSunderlandSwindonTamesideTelford and WrekinTendringThanetThurrockTraffordWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWatfordWealdenWest LindseyWestminsterWiganWiltshireWindsor and MaidenheadWolverhamptonWorthing
2020-07-16 1312 784 721 1624 1935 809 572 1291 1071 4970 503 1174 1893 4549 482 1757 785 456 1300 745 710 692 690 1250 802 698 2221 2000 314 3335 1349 509 693 1307 2015 672 1312 1574 217 387 601 419 167 1198 480 737 455 1284 557 963 767 1296 959 864 1123 1081 886 335 560 585 2240 1375 3710 4549 1211 2476 1490 640 3022 961 321 1540 1299 337 1188 1190 856 454 1903 854 510 1376 1169 781 1133 1724 1972 1361 1704 1538 4094 652 909 361 692 1455 525 572 1651 1776 762 1544 616 628 876 562 1278 1761 1502 1037 1177 1328 554 456 155 796 2147 1261 411 1395 404
2020-07-17 1314 785 721 1625 1937 810 573 1292 1072 4975 505 1186 1898 4570 485 1758 786 456 1300 748 710 694 691 1251 804 698 2222 2003 315 3336 1350 510 695 1309 2016 673 1313 1575 217 388 604 422 167 1199 480 738 456 1284 558 964 768 1297 959 869 1124 1082 886 336 561 587 2257 1376 3717 4596 1212 2478 1495 640 3030 961 321 1540 1300 337 1190 1191 857 456 1906 855 515 1383 1170 781 1135 1726 1975 1365 1706 1539 4102 653 909 362 694 1456 528 572 1652 1776 762 1546 617 629 878 562 1279 1767 1505 1037 1178 1329 554 457 156 797 2147 1262 411 1396 404
2020-07-18 1316 786 722 1626 1939 812 574 1294 1073 4982 507 1203 1904 4596 488 1759 786 457 1301 754 710 695 694 1253 807 699 2222 2008 316 3338 1351 511 697 1311 2017 675 1314 1575 217 389 606 425 168 1200 481 739 457 1285 559 964 769 1298 960 874 1125 1084 887 338 561 590 2274 1378 3725 4641 1212 2481 1502 641 3040 961 322 1541 1302 338 1194 1192 859 458 1911 857 521 1390 1171 782 1137 1731 1979 1368 1709 1541 4111 654 910 362 696 1457 530 573 1654 1777 763 1548 617 630 880 563 1280 1774 1509 1038 1179 1330 555 458 156 798 2148 1263 412 1397 405
2020-07-19 1318 788 722 1629 1941 814 575 1297 1074 4990 509 1224 1908 4621 491 1761 787 458 1301 760 710 697 696 1255 809 699 2223 2012 317 3339 1352 511 699 1313 2019 677 1315 1576 218 391 609 427 168 1201 482 739 458 1286 560 965 771 1298 961 879 1127 1085 887 339 562 593 2289 1378 3730 4681 1213 2484 1509 641 3049 962 322 1541 1304 338 1200 1193 860 461 1915 858 527 1398 1172 783 1139 1739 1984 1371 1713 1543 4120 655 911 362 698 1458 532 573 1656 1777 764 1550 619 631 882 565 1281 1784 1513 1039 1181 1331 555 460 157 799 2149 1264 412 1398 406
2020-07-20 1321 789 723 1633 1943 815 576 1300 1075 4999 511 1248 1915 4646 494 1762 788 459 1302 765 712 699 700 1257 812 699 2225 2017 318 3340 1354 512 701 1316 2022 678 1315 1578 218 392 612 429 168 1202 484 740 459 1286 561 966 772 1299 962 885 1129 1086 887 341 563 596 2305 1380 3740 4733 1214 2487 1517 641 3059 962 322 1542 1307 339 1207 1194 862 463 1919 860 533 1404 1173 784 1141 1749 1994 1374 1718 1546 4130 656 913 363 700 1460 535 574 1658 1778 765 1552 620 632 885 565 1282 1793 1517 1041 1184 1332 555 461 157 800 2151 1266 413 1399 406
2020-07-21 1323 790 724 1634 1946 817 578 1302 1076 5010 513 1270 1921 4672 500 1764 789 460 1303 771 712 700 703 1259 815 700 2226 2021 319 3341 1355 513 703 1319 2027 680 1316 1580 218 394 615 431 169 1204 485 742 461 1287 563 967 773 1300 964 889 1131 1088 888 342 564 599 2324 1383 3747 4780 1215 2491 1524 642 3068 962 323 1544 1309 340 1214 1195 863 466 1924 861 539 1411 1174 785 1143 1760 1999 1378 1723 1548 4139 657 914 363 702 1461 538 575 1660 1779 766 1554 622 633 888 566 1283 1802 1521 1043 1185 1333 556 462 158 801 2152 1267 413 1400 407
2020-07-22 1326 792 725 1637 1948 819 579 1305 1077 5021 515 1294 1926 4697 504 1765 789 461 1305 777 712 702 706 1261 818 700 2229 2025 320 3342 1357 514 707 1321 2032 682 1317 1581 219 396 619 433 169 1205 485 743 462 1288 564 968 775 1301 965 897 1133 1089 888 344 564 602 2343 1384 3752 4831 1216 2494 1530 643 3078 963 323 1545 1312 340 1221 1196 865 470 1928 863 546 1419 1175 786 1145 1771 2006 1382 1727 1550 4148 657 916 364 704 1462 540 575 1662 1780 767 1557 623 634 890 567 1285 1810 1525 1044 1187 1334 556 464 159 802 2154 1268 414 1401 408
2020-07-23 1328 793 726 1639 1951 820 580 1307 1078 5032 517 1322 1932 4723 508 1766 790 462 1306 782 712 704 708 1263 821 701 2232 2030 321 3345 1358 514 709 1324 2034 683 1318 1583 219 398 623 436 169 1206 486 745 463 1288 566 968 776 1302 966 903 1136 1091 888 345 565 605 2362 1386 3758 4878 1218 2497 1537 644 3088 963 323 1546 1314 341 1228 1198 868 473 1932 865 552 1428 1176 787 1147 1783 2011 1386 1731 1552 4158 658 917 365 706 1464 543 576 1664 1781 768 1559 625 635 893 568 1286 1819 1529 1046 1188 1335 556 465 159 804 2156 1270 414 1402 409

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

    The district map is an updated version of: Districts of England (2019)

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.