COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-02 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-02

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-02

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-1504-2104-2904-2904-0904-1604-1704-1003-2803-2504-2303-2804-1803-2705-1404-0204-1803-3003-2305-0905-1404-1204-18 --04-0204-1904-0405-0305-0308-1603-2603-2603-3004-1604-2603-2705-1103-1804-1503-2805-1207-2004-0803-2804-0804-0804-2103-2904-1705-0904-1604-0303-3005-0504-2105-0605-0305-0804-0704-1704-1108-1704-1904-0204-2004-0204-1104-2003-2704-0304-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1204-2104-2104-1604-1604-2204-1604-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-0203-3004-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-0503-2903-2904-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2604-2304-1508-2204-1803-2607-0103-2304-1303-2604-1304-1903-2405-0305-0404-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-1004-2204-0704-2303-2903-2503-2604-1406-1404-1303-2503-2504-2103-3104-0304-2703-2203-3003-3005-2403-2903-2305-0403-2503-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-3003-2503-2804-2903-2504-2004-1803-2604-2603-2504-1805-0404-2203-2904-0804-1008-0304-1008-2004-1404-2205-1207-3003-3107-2704-2904-1404-1405-0404-0803-3004-2208-1104-0505-2403-1904-2103-3104-2008-2205-1404-1704-2904-1304-1404-0505-0704-2004-0803-2404-1804-2203-2904-2003-2603-2304-2004-2303-2005-2603-2304-1504-0104-1703-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2705-0904-1604-2603-2104-1504-1803-2703-2704-1403-2904-1504-1504-1403-3004-0104-2004-2404-1003-3003-3104-0604-0504-0807-2605-1103-2104-0704-1505-1204-1404-2204-0204-1304-1703-2504-1104-1703-2503-2705-1304-2703-2504-2203-2503-2303-2403-3103-2404-0304-1304-1808-0205-0404-0704-1804-2004-2104-1904-1403-1704-1505-0308-1804-0803-3004-1404-1404-1704-1504-1604-1503-2904-2004-1304-21
Peak daily increment 5 8 8 18 12 22 13 6 19 47 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 30 96 7 28 21 6 8 20 8 56 11 11 51 7 13 25 13 38 21 6 9 8 24 14 6 19 7 15 25 6 19 14 16 12 12 40 31 9 14 7 12 23 8 7 17 4 68 22 5 11 49 9 15 19 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 34 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 6 8 26 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 12 36 7 14 7 10 14 25 13 15 6 32 6 21 10 12 30 6 14 3 9 28 44 13 7 24 9 11 23 29 6 20 16 16 16 18 23 43 16 28 21 39 32 75 75 6 37 8 4 55 23 24 4 5 50 17 24 3 4 24 10 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 33 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 20 10 5 65 37 8 25 13 5 33 21 14 33 18 12 22 22 29 14 10 17 4 15 11 22 7 11 4 30 9 6 7 14 2 3 26 30 21 7 35 8 8 69 21 18 20 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 18 10 8 8 22 17 15 44 8 12 31 18 7 7 31 17 27 14 9 48 9 28 9 16 27 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 21 7 11 6 9 25 22 10 15 9 28 31 28 32 27 9 12 12 8 7 7 11 2 14 4 11 14 19 53 37 10 7 45 8 15 28 12 10 10 6 16 10 30
Days from 100 to peak -2 21 23 19 7 18 20 -4 10 14 34 8 25 9 40 2 25 13 13 31 46 13 8 -4 25 4 43 30 134 15 -6 7 27 18 14 45 -12 14 -6 50 113 3 13 7 10 28 -7 26 37 23 7 3 44 30 34 23 37 8 17 12 118 28 -7 30 15 0 20 15 9 21 7 -21 6 6 25 25 39 24 15 1 16 16 17 3 11 26 18 21 10 15 -3 1 16 3 -3 12 -6 18 19 35 -21 56 6 17 20 4 1 40 14 9 2 -6 31 7 11 -2 18 14 17 9 104 19 8 90 2 7 11 10 20 9 31 22 16 6 0 7 32 11 21 18 32 5 15 8 27 85 9 12 -2 5 15 13 30 -30 -8 11 44 8 -47 -11 11 -29 11 26 3 32 38 0 -12 10 27 10 -8 19 -15 22 -10 16 17 20 6 4 5 133 17 133 24 29 28 132 7 111 29 16 21 37 14 14 26 131 15 32 1 3 9 10 132 21 28 22 10 10 7 -77 -10 20 8 14 13 8 4 -4 12 28 35 0 48 -12 14 1 24 -130 14 22 7 14 -14 43 13 13 -4 19 27 3 18 13 5 24 11 5 -5 12 25 29 14 -3 9 6 19 10 119 50 -10 6 3 44 15 24 -3 15 18 1 9 13 9 7 36 19 -3 31 9 7 14 7 -4 9 14 16 106 30 12 24 -5 20 5 7 23 42 148 14 9 10 19 34 13 9 17 1 19 14 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 31 43 54 43 30 32 38 30 22 21 43 17 36 24 56 25 35 24 16 63 56 27 41 17 40 27 48 52 155 21 17 31 39 43 21 62 13 40 12 63 128 33 26 32 24 41 24 40 57 43 24 21 55 41 59 54 67 29 32 30 155 45 35 35 25 33 41 21 33 36 20 20 16 40 33 42 61 34 24 39 61 39 45 29 41 38 38 36 38 39 44 19 26 17 15 42 24 43 46 61 14 82 13 43 37 39 17 57 23 31 17 24 42 47 22 12 39 22 44 27 161 42 18 106 17 43 22 34 43 21 49 50 33 36 11 25 51 26 30 32 42 15 22 14 32 91 33 20 19 40 21 24 43 11 18 21 71 21 16 54 22 10 41 43 11 44 60 18 27 19 44 17 28 43 13 45 16 32 50 37 19 31 35 139 26 161 39 50 63 142 26 133 44 34 39 48 29 22 38 152 29 69 13 34 21 36 157 63 36 53 38 37 25 53 42 29 16 32 46 16 36 14 16 42 50 8 71 21 42 27 42 27 40 53 20 38 18 59 35 44 16 31 41 16 25 35 27 31 26 36 24 24 40 40 32 18 16 24 29 31 136 64 10 28 47 60 31 48 26 30 41 17 35 49 21 21 62 45 17 40 18 16 22 15 13 20 37 41 141 56 30 52 35 41 44 32 18 29 55 169 38 16 39 41 44 34 32 35 28 35 36 36
Last total 204 411 468 359 608 1373 849 286 898 1925 2157 612 880 978 662 420 1457 1192 6770 584 1902 1110 376 2563 507 921 419 6469 533 511 1960 318 892 1537 435 1666 580 329 493 655 1637 1224 401 844 347 739 808 364 1376 920 806 473 755 2425 2173 535 299 344 737 761 374 431 996 229 3561 1735 277 487 2025 625 632 761 309 1432 277 2085 666 731 1454 1840 213 256 541 469 268 456 1722 705 917 472 464 221 515 1377 559 364 447 274 323 515 816 176 497 1416 418 580 242 641 408 1090 617 753 341 938 438 936 407 794 1484 294 674 164 388 1134 923 565 485 1328 599 550 1316 959 503 735 433 671 710 702 870 1621 842 3106 1095 1601 923 4703 5792 400 1366 436 333 2939 1754 689 151 244 4460 379 1138 225 162 1040 231 355 658 1137 982 362 508 460 1745 867 1518 133 637 244 402 243 770 230 968 1006 364 355 1818 1713 351 1379 951 550 3007 1031 938 1636 754 560 1480 872 1333 776 442 838 241 664 289 2331 314 384 202 2203 426 366 438 627 116 147 1904 2246 582 414 1730 350 411 4761 1534 778 1044 463 251 401 444 857 116 722 456 636 360 300 655 577 359 419 1081 1023 766 1663 389 599 1300 620 409 353 2014 1060 1728 559 292 1887 474 1097 565 1284 2005 384 353 229 693 675 534 283 936 404 631 389 306 1037 1733 520 318 541 2138 1712 1196 1444 1451 479 662 523 503 429 466 541 76 807 176 572 537 977 2364 1422 515 516 2290 413 649 1657 439 436 472 531 675 436 982
Last daily increment 1 0 0 3 1 2 1 0 6 7 8 1 4 0 1 2 1 2 54 2 10 3 0 43 0 2 1 29 0 1 5 0 1 9 0 8 2 0 5 2 13 7 1 1 0 1 3 0 5 1 0 1 0 7 4 0 1 3 1 1 0 4 2 0 9 12 2 0 9 2 0 1 0 3 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 2 0 2 0 1 3 2 2 0 2 1 1 5 2 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 2 14 1 0 0 0 2 9 1 2 0 2 2 2 0 4 14 3 9 0 0 4 0 10 1 9 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 3 7 2 0 1 2 10 4 6 2 24 11 1 6 0 7 18 3 1 0 1 38 1 4 0 2 2 1 0 1 10 3 0 4 0 13 1 11 1 0 1 2 2 1 1 2 6 0 1 6 8 1 6 0 1 10 1 0 3 2 1 6 2 10 2 0 1 4 2 0 17 0 3 1 6 1 2 1 0 0 0 25 2 1 0 5 2 1 8 1 8 13 0 4 0 2 4 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 5 1 3 10 4 2 4 3 0 4 9 3 6 1 0 5 1 3 0 8 13 1 0 0 0 0 6 1 0 0 2 2 1 4 6 3 3 2 2 2 5 4 9 3 3 2 0 0 2 2 0 2 0 0 0 5 18 9 0 6 11 1 2 8 0 2 1 3 2 0 1
Last week 2 5 0 9 7 4 5 3 36 54 30 6 16 8 5 8 17 31 352 13 74 4 6 241 2 33 11 285 2 18 40 4 20 50 3 25 8 10 26 28 54 44 8 20 1 7 7 19 20 5 5 8 4 46 31 3 3 17 9 7 3 17 14 4 52 55 3 4 40 15 10 4 7 13 6 10 8 8 37 29 2 5 7 9 2 8 16 27 5 2 2 2 16 27 18 11 5 4 4 2 5 5 5 59 8 7 0 15 16 35 9 13 9 32 16 27 2 17 45 7 27 5 1 34 7 44 11 37 7 5 42 3 18 7 1 14 30 12 3 5 20 106 21 32 6 221 92 5 27 8 19 88 26 1 2 4 215 5 11 4 5 18 6 10 14 46 14 10 10 9 55 11 40 2 6 3 6 6 8 2 24 29 5 3 34 44 22 30 8 5 113 13 36 33 35 11 46 11 46 24 7 19 11 18 2 85 1 48 1 31 5 6 15 4 3 3 108 47 7 3 48 10 7 114 21 19 35 0 9 7 9 25 4 1 8 5 14 4 6 10 6 4 60 3 12 34 21 14 22 9 4 8 36 32 33 5 3 26 9 17 4 24 80 10 8 4 4 2 19 7 3 6 12 5 3 42 55 7 7 7 24 31 25 46 34 6 7 18 7 2 17 13 0 12 6 8 11 27 48 31 4 19 91 5 14 29 6 7 6 27 10 2 18
Days since peak 140 134 126 126 146 139 138 145 158 161 132 158 137 159 111 153 137 156 163 116 111 143 137 153 136 151 122 122 17 160 160 156 139 129 159 114 168 140 158 113 44 147 158 147 147 134 157 138 116 139 152 156 120 134 119 122 117 148 138 144 16 136 153 135 153 144 135 159 152 133 155 161 163 137 139 136 112 145 159 132 130 138 140 143 134 134 139 139 133 139 132 162 156 161 161 138 156 137 127 114 159 92 156 139 136 140 156 114 158 150 157 157 140 135 160 161 135 160 132 140 11 137 160 63 163 142 160 142 136 162 122 121 138 134 171 165 122 145 133 148 132 157 161 160 141 80 142 161 161 134 155 152 128 164 156 156 101 157 163 121 161 159 132 133 159 134 120 156 161 158 126 161 135 137 160 129 161 137 121 133 157 147 145 30 145 13 141 133 113 34 155 37 126 141 141 121 147 156 133 22 150 101 167 134 155 135 11 111 138 126 142 141 150 118 135 147 162 137 133 157 135 160 163 135 132 166 99 163 140 154 138 161 127 126 162 133 159 116 139 129 165 140 137 159 159 141 157 140 140 141 156 154 135 131 145 156 155 149 150 147 38 114 165 148 140 113 141 133 153 142 138 161 144 138 161 159 112 128 161 133 161 163 162 155 162 152 142 137 31 121 148 137 135 134 136 141 169 140 122 15 147 156 141 141 138 140 139 140 157 135 142 134

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-03 to 2020-09-09

DateArunAshfieldBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBolsoverBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBrecklandBrentBrighton and HoveBristolBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCheltenhamCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChilternChorleyColchesterCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHounslowHyndburnIpswichIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonManchesterMedwayMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamRunnymedeRushcliffeSalfordSandwellScarboroughSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth KestevenSouth NorfolkSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth TynesideSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTest ValleyTewkesburyThree RiversThurrockTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreYork
2020-09-02 359 608 898 1925 2157 612 880 978 420 1457 1192 6770 584 1902 376 2563 921 419 6469 511 1960 892 1537 1666 580 329 493 655 1637 1224 401 844 739 808 364 1376 473 2425 2173 344 737 761 431 996 3561 1735 2025 625 632 309 1432 277 2085 666 731 1454 1840 541 469 456 1722 705 515 1377 559 364 1416 418 580 641 408 1090 617 753 341 938 438 936 794 1484 294 674 1134 923 565 485 1328 599 1316 503 735 671 710 702 842 3106 1095 1601 923 4703 5792 1366 436 333 2939 1754 4460 1138 1040 231 355 658 1137 982 362 508 460 1745 867 1518 637 402 243 770 968 1006 1818 1713 351 1379 951 3007 1031 938 1636 754 560 1480 872 1333 776 442 838 241 664 2331 384 2203 366 438 1904 2246 582 1730 350 411 4761 1534 778 1044 251 401 444 857 456 360 655 577 359 1081 766 1663 389 599 1300 620 353 2014 1060 1728 1887 474 1097 1284 2005 384 353 534 283 404 631 1037 1733 520 318 541 2138 1712 1196 1444 1451 479 662 523 503 466 541 807 176 572 537 977 2364 1422 516 2290 649 1657 439 436 472 531 675 982
2020-09-03 360 609 903 1931 2161 613 882 979 422 1460 1195 6817 587 1913 377 2613 921 420 6506 512 1965 895 1544 1671 581 331 498 659 1646 1231 403 852 740 809 364 1379 474 2425 2177 346 738 762 436 998 3569 1743 2030 639 633 310 1435 277 2085 668 732 1458 1855 543 471 457 1724 708 518 1383 561 365 1425 419 581 642 410 1094 619 754 342 943 440 941 796 1490 295 679 1135 924 573 487 1335 600 1322 506 736 674 714 705 845 3123 1095 1607 924 4734 5807 1370 437 335 2951 1759 4494 1140 1043 232 356 660 1142 985 364 510 462 1746 868 1524 638 403 244 771 974 1014 1818 1718 353 1384 953 3027 1034 945 1641 759 562 1486 874 1338 781 443 840 242 668 2346 388 2207 367 440 1917 2256 583 1736 350 412 4774 1537 780 1059 252 402 445 861 457 361 656 579 360 1091 768 1669 391 601 1303 621 354 2019 1065 1735 1890 475 1100 1312 2016 384 353 538 284 405 633 1040 1742 521 319 543 2144 1717 1201 1455 1454 480 664 525 504 472 543 808 176 573 538 982 2377 1426 520 2304 651 1662 440 437 473 534 676 984
2020-09-04 361 609 907 1943 2165 614 884 980 424 1464 1198 6863 589 1924 378 2663 921 421 6543 513 1970 898 1551 1675 582 332 503 663 1655 1238 405 857 740 810 365 1382 476 2430 2181 347 740 763 440 1000 3576 1751 2035 642 633 311 1437 278 2089 669 732 1462 1858 544 473 459 1727 711 521 1388 564 366 1432 421 582 642 412 1097 621 755 343 950 441 945 799 1496 295 684 1135 925 580 488 1341 601 1327 509 736 677 719 709 848 3140 1095 1613 925 4762 5821 1374 438 336 2962 1763 4527 1141 1045 233 357 662 1147 987 365 512 463 1755 868 1529 638 405 244 773 977 1021 1818 1723 355 1389 954 3046 1038 953 1646 763 563 1492 877 1343 785 445 842 242 671 2360 393 2210 368 441 1930 2266 584 1741 350 414 4786 1541 783 1070 254 403 445 864 458 362 658 580 361 1100 770 1675 393 603 1305 622 355 2024 1070 1742 1893 476 1102 1316 2027 384 353 541 284 407 634 1043 1750 522 320 545 2150 1722 1205 1465 1458 482 666 527 505 478 545 809 177 574 539 986 2389 1430 524 2318 652 1667 440 437 474 537 677 986
2020-09-05 362 610 912 1947 2169 615 886 981 426 1466 1201 6909 592 1935 378 2715 921 422 6580 514 1975 900 1558 1679 583 333 508 667 1663 1245 406 861 741 812 366 1385 477 2437 2185 349 741 764 445 1002 3583 1759 2040 645 634 312 1440 278 2089 671 733 1466 1863 545 475 460 1729 713 524 1393 566 367 1441 422 583 643 414 1101 622 757 344 955 443 950 801 1502 296 688 1135 927 587 490 1348 602 1332 511 737 680 723 712 851 3157 1097 1619 926 4791 5835 1378 439 338 2973 1768 4561 1143 1048 234 357 664 1152 990 367 513 465 1762 869 1535 639 406 245 774 980 1028 1818 1728 358 1394 956 3065 1041 960 1651 768 565 1499 879 1348 790 446 844 243 675 2374 397 2214 369 443 1943 2275 584 1747 350 415 4799 1544 785 1082 255 404 446 868 459 363 659 581 361 1110 772 1681 395 605 1308 623 356 2028 1074 1749 1896 477 1104 1317 2038 384 353 544 285 408 635 1047 1759 523 322 547 2156 1727 1210 1475 1460 483 668 529 506 484 546 811 177 575 540 991 2400 1434 527 2331 654 1672 441 438 475 540 678 988
2020-09-06 363 611 916 1951 2172 616 887 982 428 1466 1204 6954 594 1946 379 2768 921 423 6616 515 1980 903 1565 1683 584 334 512 671 1671 1252 408 863 742 813 367 1388 478 2442 2189 351 742 765 449 1003 3591 1767 2045 647 634 312 1442 278 2090 672 733 1470 1870 547 476 462 1731 716 527 1398 568 368 1448 423 584 643 416 1104 624 758 344 959 445 954 803 1508 297 693 1135 928 594 491 1354 603 1337 514 738 682 727 716 854 3173 1100 1625 927 4819 5849 1382 439 340 2984 1772 4593 1144 1050 235 358 667 1157 993 368 515 467 1767 870 1541 640 407 246 775 984 1035 1818 1733 360 1399 957 3084 1044 967 1655 773 566 1505 881 1353 794 447 845 243 678 2387 401 2218 370 445 1955 2285 585 1752 350 416 4811 1547 787 1093 257 405 447 871 460 364 660 583 362 1119 774 1687 396 607 1310 624 357 2033 1079 1755 1899 478 1106 1322 2048 384 354 547 286 409 637 1050 1767 523 323 549 2162 1732 1214 1478 1463 484 670 531 507 489 548 812 178 576 541 995 2411 1437 531 2344 655 1677 442 439 477 543 679 990
2020-09-07 364 611 921 1960 2176 617 889 983 430 1467 1207 6998 596 1956 380 2822 921 425 6652 516 1985 906 1571 1687 585 336 516 675 1680 1259 410 867 743 814 367 1391 480 2448 2193 352 744 766 453 1005 3598 1774 2050 647 634 313 1445 278 2092 674 734 1474 1877 548 478 463 1734 718 530 1404 570 369 1456 425 585 644 418 1107 626 759 345 963 447 959 805 1513 297 697 1135 930 601 493 1360 605 1342 517 738 685 731 719 857 3190 1102 1631 928 4846 5862 1386 440 341 2996 1776 4626 1145 1052 235 359 669 1162 995 370 517 468 1770 871 1546 640 408 246 777 987 1041 1819 1737 362 1404 958 3103 1048 975 1660 777 568 1511 884 1357 799 448 847 244 682 2400 405 2221 371 446 1967 2294 586 1757 350 417 4823 1550 790 1104 258 406 448 875 461 365 662 584 363 1128 776 1693 398 609 1312 625 358 2038 1084 1762 1902 479 1109 1326 2058 384 354 551 286 410 638 1053 1776 524 324 551 2168 1736 1219 1483 1466 485 672 533 508 495 550 813 178 577 543 1000 2422 1441 534 2357 657 1682 442 440 478 546 680 992
2020-09-08 364 612 925 1973 2179 617 890 984 431 1468 1210 7043 599 1967 381 2877 921 426 6689 517 1990 909 1578 1692 586 337 521 679 1688 1266 412 871 743 816 368 1394 481 2456 2197 354 745 767 458 1007 3605 1782 2054 650 635 314 1447 279 2093 675 735 1477 1882 549 480 464 1736 721 533 1409 573 370 1463 426 586 645 420 1110 628 760 346 969 448 963 807 1519 298 701 1135 931 608 494 1366 606 1348 519 739 688 735 723 860 3206 1106 1636 929 4874 5876 1390 441 343 3007 1780 4658 1147 1055 236 360 671 1167 998 371 518 470 1780 872 1552 641 410 247 778 991 1048 1820 1742 364 1409 960 3121 1051 982 1665 782 570 1517 886 1362 803 450 849 244 685 2414 409 2225 372 448 1980 2304 586 1762 350 418 4836 1553 792 1115 259 407 448 878 462 367 663 585 364 1138 778 1699 400 610 1314 626 359 2042 1088 1768 1905 480 1111 1328 2069 384 354 554 287 411 639 1056 1785 525 325 552 2175 1741 1223 1493 1468 486 675 535 508 501 551 814 178 578 544 1004 2434 1444 538 2370 658 1687 443 440 479 549 681 994
2020-09-09 365 613 930 1981 2182 618 892 985 433 1469 1214 7088 601 1977 382 2933 921 427 6725 518 1995 911 1585 1696 587 338 525 683 1696 1273 413 872 744 817 369 1397 483 2461 2201 355 746 769 462 1009 3613 1790 2059 653 635 315 1449 279 2095 676 735 1481 1887 551 482 466 1738 724 536 1414 575 371 1471 427 587 645 422 1113 630 761 347 971 450 967 809 1525 299 705 1135 933 614 496 1372 607 1353 522 740 691 740 726 863 3223 1109 1642 930 4902 5890 1394 442 344 3018 1784 4691 1148 1057 237 361 673 1171 1001 373 520 472 1791 873 1557 641 411 248 779 993 1054 1821 1746 366 1414 961 3140 1054 990 1670 787 571 1522 888 1367 808 451 850 245 689 2427 413 2228 373 449 1992 2313 587 1767 350 420 4848 1556 794 1126 261 408 449 882 463 368 665 586 364 1147 780 1705 402 612 1317 627 360 2047 1093 1775 1908 481 1113 1336 2079 384 354 557 288 413 641 1059 1793 526 326 554 2181 1746 1228 1498 1471 487 677 537 509 506 553 815 179 579 545 1009 2445 1448 541 2383 660 1692 444 441 480 552 682 996

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-03 to 2020-09-09

DateArunAshfieldBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBolsoverBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBrecklandBrentBrighton and HoveBristolBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCheltenhamCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChilternChorleyColchesterCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHounslowHyndburnIpswichIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonManchesterMedwayMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherhamRunnymedeRushcliffeSalfordSandwellScarboroughSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth KestevenSouth NorfolkSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth TynesideSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTest ValleyTewkesburyThree RiversThurrockTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreYork
2020-09-02 359 608 898 1925 2157 612 880 978 420 1457 1192 6770 584 1902 376 2563 921 419 6469 511 1960 892 1537 1666 580 329 493 655 1637 1224 401 844 739 808 364 1376 473 2425 2173 344 737 761 431 996 3561 1735 2025 625 632 309 1432 277 2085 666 731 1454 1840 541 469 456 1722 705 515 1377 559 364 1416 418 580 641 408 1090 617 753 341 938 438 936 794 1484 294 674 1134 923 565 485 1328 599 1316 503 735 671 710 702 842 3106 1095 1601 923 4703 5792 1366 436 333 2939 1754 4460 1138 1040 231 355 658 1137 982 362 508 460 1745 867 1518 637 402 243 770 968 1006 1818 1713 351 1379 951 3007 1031 938 1636 754 560 1480 872 1333 776 442 838 241 664 2331 384 2203 366 438 1904 2246 582 1730 350 411 4761 1534 778 1044 251 401 444 857 456 360 655 577 359 1081 766 1663 389 599 1300 620 353 2014 1060 1728 1887 474 1097 1284 2005 384 353 534 283 404 631 1037 1733 520 318 541 2138 1712 1196 1444 1451 479 662 523 503 466 541 807 176 572 537 977 2364 1422 516 2290 649 1657 439 436 472 531 675 982
2020-09-03 359 608 900 1932 2158 612 881 979 423 1461 1195 6794 586 1906 377 2609 922 420 6494 513 1965 894 1540 1667 580 330 495 657 1640 1228 403 847 739 809 365 1377 474 2426 2175 345 738 762 434 997 3568 1740 2027 631 633 309 1434 277 2085 667 731 1456 1846 543 470 457 1723 707 518 1381 561 364 1421 419 581 642 410 1091 618 753 342 943 440 939 795 1486 294 675 1139 924 567 486 1329 600 1319 505 735 674 714 705 844 3117 1095 1609 923 4731 5800 1369 437 333 2946 1755 4483 1139 1042 232 356 659 1139 984 363 509 461 1746 869 1521 637 402 243 771 971 1007 1821 1715 353 1384 952 3022 1033 945 1640 758 562 1484 874 1335 779 443 839 242 667 2337 387 2204 366 439 1906 2256 582 1734 350 412 4772 1537 779 1046 252 402 444 859 456 361 656 577 359 1089 768 1666 390 600 1301 620 353 2015 1062 1731 1889 474 1098 1290 2011 386 354 535 284 405 631 1041 1743 521 318 542 2145 1714 1201 1452 1452 479 663 524 504 469 542 807 176 573 537 982 2366 1423 517 2296 650 1659 440 436 473 534 675 983
2020-09-04 359 609 902 1942 2159 613 882 979 425 1465 1198 6834 588 1913 378 2660 924 421 6528 515 1970 898 1547 1670 581 331 498 660 1647 1234 405 852 740 811 366 1380 476 2429 2178 346 739 763 437 998 3577 1747 2031 635 633 310 1437 278 2088 669 732 1461 1849 544 472 459 1724 710 521 1387 564 365 1426 420 582 643 412 1093 619 754 343 949 442 944 796 1489 294 677 1143 924 571 487 1332 601 1322 506 736 677 717 709 847 3131 1096 1617 923 4764 5811 1373 438 334 2957 1757 4514 1140 1044 233 357 661 1143 986 365 510 462 1752 873 1526 638 403 243 773 973 1009 1826 1718 355 1389 952 3038 1036 952 1646 762 564 1490 876 1337 783 444 841 242 670 2350 392 2207 367 441 1914 2264 583 1739 351 413 4785 1540 779 1048 253 403 444 863 458 363 657 578 360 1099 770 1670 391 602 1302 621 354 2017 1066 1736 1892 475 1100 1296 2022 387 354 536 284 406 632 1046 1753 521 319 544 2149 1717 1207 1461 1454 480 665 526 505 472 544 807 177 574 539 987 2369 1424 521 2305 652 1662 440 437 473 538 676 984
2020-09-05 360 609 904 1946 2160 613 883 980 427 1468 1201 6879 590 1920 379 2710 926 422 6565 518 1976 900 1553 1674 581 332 501 663 1654 1240 407 855 740 812 367 1382 477 2435 2182 347 740 764 441 1000 3585 1754 2035 639 634 310 1439 278 2088 670 732 1465 1853 544 474 459 1725 713 524 1392 567 365 1431 421 583 645 415 1096 620 754 344 954 444 948 798 1494 295 678 1147 925 574 488 1337 602 1327 509 736 680 721 712 850 3146 1097 1621 924 4793 5821 1375 439 334 2968 1758 4545 1141 1046 234 358 663 1147 989 367 512 463 1758 876 1531 638 404 244 774 976 1011 1830 1721 358 1394 953 3055 1039 959 1651 767 565 1496 879 1340 787 445 842 243 673 2359 397 2210 368 443 1923 2273 583 1744 352 414 4798 1543 781 1050 254 404 444 866 459 364 658 579 361 1108 772 1674 392 604 1303 622 354 2020 1070 1740 1895 475 1102 1300 2033 389 355 538 285 407 632 1050 1759 522 319 545 2153 1721 1210 1469 1456 481 667 528 506 475 545 808 177 574 541 991 2372 1426 524 2314 654 1665 441 438 474 542 676 986
2020-09-06 360 609 908 1949 2162 614 884 981 428 1471 1204 6923 593 1929 379 2758 929 423 6601 520 1981 903 1559 1678 582 333 503 667 1662 1247 409 858 741 812 368 1385 479 2440 2186 349 740 765 444 1001 3590 1762 2040 644 635 311 1442 279 2089 671 733 1469 1860 546 476 460 1726 715 527 1397 569 366 1437 422 584 647 417 1099 621 755 345 959 445 953 799 1498 295 680 1151 926 578 490 1341 603 1332 511 736 683 726 716 853 3163 1098 1625 924 4820 5829 1378 440 335 2980 1760 4574 1143 1048 235 358 665 1152 992 368 513 464 1764 880 1535 639 405 244 776 978 1013 1835 1725 360 1398 954 3072 1042 966 1655 772 567 1502 881 1343 790 447 845 244 675 2371 402 2212 368 444 1933 2278 583 1749 352 416 4811 1547 782 1052 255 405 445 870 460 365 660 579 362 1118 774 1678 393 606 1304 623 354 2023 1073 1744 1898 476 1104 1305 2043 391 356 539 286 409 633 1053 1766 523 320 546 2156 1725 1214 1476 1458 481 669 529 506 479 547 808 178 575 541 996 2376 1427 527 2322 655 1668 442 438 475 546 677 988
2020-09-07 361 609 913 1956 2164 614 885 981 430 1473 1207 6968 595 1939 380 2804 932 424 6638 523 1986 905 1566 1682 583 334 506 671 1670 1253 410 863 741 813 370 1387 480 2446 2190 350 741 766 448 1003 3598 1770 2045 647 636 312 1444 279 2090 673 734 1473 1869 548 477 461 1728 718 531 1403 572 366 1443 423 585 648 420 1102 623 755 346 964 447 957 802 1502 296 681 1155 928 583 491 1345 604 1337 513 737 687 731 720 856 3177 1099 1631 924 4850 5845 1382 441 335 2991 1762 4607 1144 1051 236 359 667 1157 994 370 514 464 1769 883 1541 640 406 245 777 980 1016 1840 1729 363 1404 954 3089 1046 974 1660 776 569 1508 884 1346 794 448 846 245 678 2384 407 2216 369 446 1946 2286 584 1755 353 417 4824 1550 784 1055 256 406 446 873 460 366 661 580 362 1128 775 1682 394 608 1306 624 355 2026 1078 1749 1901 477 1106 1309 2054 393 357 541 287 410 634 1058 1771 524 320 548 2160 1729 1218 1483 1460 482 671 531 507 482 549 809 178 576 543 1000 2380 1428 531 2335 657 1671 443 439 476 550 678 991
2020-09-08 362 610 917 1965 2166 615 887 982 433 1475 1210 7014 598 1949 381 2855 935 425 6674 525 1991 908 1574 1686 583 336 509 675 1677 1259 412 868 742 814 372 1390 481 2451 2194 352 743 768 451 1005 3605 1778 2050 652 636 312 1447 279 2091 674 734 1477 1876 549 479 463 1729 720 534 1408 575 367 1449 424 586 650 422 1104 624 756 347 969 449 961 804 1508 296 683 1160 929 587 493 1350 605 1341 516 737 690 735 724 859 3197 1102 1638 925 4885 5858 1386 442 336 3003 1765 4639 1145 1053 236 360 669 1162 997 372 515 465 1777 887 1547 640 408 245 779 983 1020 1844 1733 365 1408 956 3106 1049 981 1664 781 571 1514 886 1351 799 450 848 247 681 2396 412 2218 370 447 1960 2295 585 1760 354 418 4836 1553 786 1058 257 407 446 877 461 366 662 581 363 1137 777 1686 395 610 1308 625 355 2029 1082 1754 1904 478 1108 1317 2065 394 358 543 287 411 636 1062 1776 525 321 549 2163 1733 1223 1493 1463 483 673 533 508 486 550 810 178 576 544 1006 2384 1430 534 2347 659 1675 443 440 477 554 679 993
2020-09-09 363 610 921 1972 2169 615 888 982 437 1478 1213 7059 600 1957 381 2909 939 426 6711 528 1996 911 1580 1690 584 337 512 678 1685 1265 414 871 743 815 373 1393 483 2455 2198 353 743 769 455 1007 3613 1786 2055 656 637 313 1449 279 2092 676 735 1482 1884 551 481 465 1730 723 537 1414 577 368 1455 425 587 652 425 1107 625 756 348 973 451 966 806 1512 297 685 1164 930 591 494 1355 606 1346 519 738 693 739 728 862 3210 1103 1645 925 4916 5868 1390 444 337 3014 1767 4671 1147 1056 237 361 671 1168 1000 373 517 466 1783 890 1552 641 409 246 780 985 1022 1849 1738 368 1414 957 3123 1052 989 1668 786 573 1520 889 1355 803 451 849 248 684 2410 417 2221 370 449 1972 2301 585 1766 354 420 4849 1556 788 1061 259 408 447 881 462 367 664 583 364 1147 780 1691 397 612 1310 626 356 2033 1086 1759 1907 478 1110 1326 2077 396 359 545 288 412 637 1065 1785 526 322 552 2167 1737 1228 1502 1465 483 674 534 508 489 552 810 179 577 545 1011 2389 1432 538 2357 661 1679 444 440 478 558 679 994

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.