COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-22

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	04-15	04-21	08-30	04-29	04-09	04-16	04-17	04-10	03-28	09-01	04-23	03-28	04-18	03-27	05-14	04-02	04-18	03-30	--	09-09	--	09-10	04-18	--	04-02	04-19	04-04	--	05-03	04-20	03-26	03-26	03-30	08-26	04-26	08-31	05-11	09-07	04-15	--	--	--	04-08	03-28	08-31	04-08	04-21	03-29	04-17	09-07	04-16	04-03	03-30	05-05	--	05-06	05-03	05-08	--	04-17	04-11	05-03	09-11	04-02	--	--	--	04-20	03-27	04-03	04-22	03-31	03-25	03-23	04-18	04-16	04-19	05-13	04-10	03-27	04-23	04-25	04-17	04-15	04-12	04-21	04-21	04-16	04-16	04-22	04-16	04-23	03-24	03-30	03-25	03-25	04-17	--	04-18	04-28	05-11	03-27	--	--	04-16	04-19	04-15	03-30	05-11	03-28	04-05	--	03-29	04-15	04-20	03-26	03-25	04-20	03-25	04-23	--	04-25	04-18	03-26	07-01	03-23	04-13	03-26	04-13	04-19	03-24	05-03	--	04-17	04-21	03-15	03-21	05-03	04-10	08-30	04-07	--	--	09-04	03-26	--	06-14	04-13	03-25	03-25	08-25	--	03-29	04-27	03-22	03-30	--	05-24	03-29	03-23	05-04	03-25	03-27	04-23	04-22	03-27	04-21	05-05	03-30	--	--	04-29	03-25	04-20	04-18	--	04-26	03-25	04-18	05-04	04-22	--	04-08	04-10	08-02	--	04-20	09-08	04-22	--	--	03-31	--	04-29	04-14	04-14	--	04-07	03-30	04-21	04-10	04-05	--	03-19	04-21	--	04-20	--	05-14	04-17	09-10	04-13	04-14	04-05	05-07	04-20	--	--	04-18	04-22	--	09-08	03-26	03-23	04-20	04-23	--	05-26	03-23	04-15	04-01	04-17	03-25	04-28	04-29	03-24	04-22	03-27	05-09	04-16	04-26	03-21	--	04-18	03-27	08-12	04-14	03-29	--	04-15	04-14	03-30	--	--	04-24	04-10	03-30	--	04-06	04-05	08-29	07-26	--	03-21	04-07	04-15	05-12	04-14	04-22	04-02	04-13	04-17	03-25	04-11	04-17	04-06	08-30	--	05-13	04-27	03-25	04-22	--	08-03	03-24	--	03-24	04-03	04-13	04-18	08-02	05-10	04-07	04-18	04-20	09-11	04-19	04-14	03-17	--	05-03	04-15	09-02	--	04-14	04-14	--	04-15	04-16	08-30	03-29	04-20	04-13	09-09
Peak daily increment	5	8	12	18	12	22	13	6	19	14	27	27	16	24	24	8	17	30		11		17	6		8	20	8		11	9	52	7	13	11	12	7	21	13	9				6	19	9	15	25	6	19	18	16	12	12	40		9	14	7		23	8	7	30	4				11	49	9	15	18	5	19	9	35	15	11	25	34	4	7	15	8	5	11	40	12	18	15	10	6	8	25	14	8	8		6	11	13	4			7	14	7	10	14	25	13		6	33	6	21	10	12	30	6		2	9	28	43	13	7	24	9	11	23	29		20	16	16	16	18	23	10	16			12	32		75	6	37	8	10		22	24	4	5		17	24	3	4	24	10	10	13	20	18	12	8			17	43	4	12		10	6	18	15	19		10	5	68		7	17	13			21		33	18	12		22	29	14	9	17		15	11		7		4	29	12	6	7	14	2	3			21	7		8	8	69	21	18		15	4	7	6	17	3	25	7	15	18	5	18	10	8	8		17	15	7	8	12		18	7	7			27	14	9		9	28	12	16		7	7	7	11	14	10	6	21	7	11	6	9	6	13		10	15	9	28		5	32		9	12	12	8	7	8	11	2	14	4	11	14	19		37	10	12		8	15		12	10	11	6	16	10	14
Days since peak	160	154	23	146	166	159	158	165	178	21	152	178	157	179	131	173	157	176		13		12	157		173	156	171		142	155	180	180	176	27	149	22	134	15	160				167	178	22	167	154	177	158	15	159	172	176	140		139	142	137		158	164	142	11	173				155	179	172	153	175	181	183	157	159	156	132	165	179	152	150	158	160	163	154	154	159	159	153	159	152	182	176	181	181	158		157	147	134	179			159	156	160	176	134	178	170		177	160	155	180	181	155	181	152		150	157	180	83	183	162	180	162	156	182	142		158	154	191	185	142	165	23	168			18	180		100	162	181	181	28		177	148	184	176		121	177	183	141	181	179	152	153	179	154	140	176			146	181	155	157		149	181	157	141	153		167	165	51		155	14	153			175		146	161	161		168	176	154	165	170		187	154		155		131	158	12	162	161	170	138	155			157	153		14	180	183	155	152		119	183	160	174	158	181	147	146	182	153	179	136	159	149	185		157	179	41	161	177		160	161	176			151	165	176		169	170	24	58		185	168	160	133	161	153	173	162	158	181	164	158	169	23		132	148	181	153		50	182		182	172	162	157	51	135	168	157	155	11	156	161	189		142	160	20		161	161		160	159	23	177	155	162	13
Last total	244	463	591	418	734	1398	913	303	1134	2216	2387	717	988	1019	712	505	1599	1319	10405	772	2523	1310	454	4364	527	1143	497	8316	568	556	2214	372	1037	1767	470	1829	672	415	615	1055	2391	1626	448	1012	432	792	862	427	1517	1138	866	526	822	2781	2535	604	343	386	895	824	409	510	1246	246	4414	2220	373	519	2219	683	727	800	352	1657	308	2377	754	751	1780	2130	220	294	577	527	318	507	1933	804	967	522	486	246	586	1659	644	404	534	351	364	539	842	197	616	2022	484	642	260	691	467	1237	674	1203	424	1087	520	1161	452	969	1683	318	865	198	433	1394	1000	690	594	1584	682	619	1581	1015	846	766	456	844	827	788	909	1728	939	4099	1751	1857	1040	6840	6801	421	1536	511	428	5061	1996	737	162	299	6424	486	1214	254	209	1137	241	376	707	1359	1119	385	590	550	2782	959	1871	152	720	305	469	323	901	237	1114	1445	409	406	2033	2253	404	1740	1063	722	3912	1155	1256	1791	902	648	2096	946	1751	903	494	902	301	772	331	3097	348	614	230	2580	595	438	545	673	129	167	2775	2985	710	445	2437	500	452	5734	1698	896	1519	499	288	456	524	977	141	746	534	697	392	338	696	748	390	533	1672	1111	860	1905	474	743	1889	738	466	418	2513	1291	1989	630	336	2866	515	1193	635	1364	2778	446	397	251	797	697	593	307	959	463	696	433	335	70	1360	2135	581	367	592	2560	2132	1422	1696	2153	561	735	589	549	490	548	585	82	993	247	610	620	1144	3113	1602	541	646	3429	474	709	2133	507	530	559	622	828	516	1201
Last daily increment	0	3	2	3	4	3	1	0	18	15	10	6	12	4	2	8	13	10	240	5	44	13	3	107	1	6	8	113	1	0	20	2	6	11	0	9	5	10	3	39	55	26	3	7	5	14	12	2	10	7	4	5	3	28	24	1	3	3	10	1	6	1	30	0	71	31	11	2	11	2	5	2	3	11	0	12	1	0	18	23	0	0	2	3	0	3	13	2	5	0	1	2	3	13	9	0	6	21	1	0	1	3	12	45	3	9	0	6	3	16	5	45	7	10	4	10	5	14	14	1	19	0	5	17	1	3	11	21	9	3	15	3	22	2	0	8	2	1	3	6	6	76	42	15	9	134	56	0	5	2	2	175	15	2	1	0	161	1	2	1	4	6	0	1	4	22	8	1	3	4	89	5	15	3	2	6	7	3	10	0	8	30	2	6	9	59	2	19	6	4	49	4	28	7	6	8	54	11	26	13	6	1	9	8	9	55	3	11	1	28	7	8	2	1	0	2	59	50	7	2	70	4	3	53	14	17	24	0	3	1	1	5	2	3	3	8	1	2	3	13	2	8	37	6	9	17	6	9	50	6	0	3	33	15	13	3	2	77	7	12	2	1	54	1	2	1	6	0	2	2	0	4	9	0	1	0	25	28	4	2	5	24	25	19	16	57	6	4	11	2	3	1	5	0	22	1	2	1	17	77	6	0	5	67	4	4	28	5	6	1	2	9	9	22
Last week	10	22	44	17	36	11	21	6	100	92	81	40	41	20	17	30	59	67	1471	42	252	80	25	602	6	62	25	713	12	11	95	26	20	83	10	54	27	28	34	173	319	159	15	48	28	24	31	24	61	72	14	22	15	136	147	18	8	13	63	25	17	17	149	3	379	219	41	10	60	20	42	12	13	84	14	114	20	1	131	99	1	10	10	24	13	11	85	22	15	9	8	6	22	89	41	9	34	46	14	7	9	6	58	273	17	32	6	31	19	52	18	219	32	37	30	69	20	63	63	10	89	9	18	88	12	30	35	96	31	14	66	19	123	10	7	55	22	15	13	43	32	363	308	75	43	767	365	7	46	23	24	1002	112	12	2	11	866	24	36	6	14	23	2	6	10	106	42	7	20	37	569	25	128	5	22	30	15	20	59	2	51	220	15	25	55	325	21	122	48	45	347	42	158	45	58	37	223	27	153	59	23	15	34	29	24	336	17	79	5	155	56	24	28	10	2	7	320	320	35	9	349	43	11	363	67	56	146	10	16	12	25	31	13	5	21	28	7	11	11	56	9	34	272	31	37	92	20	44	230	40	14	12	194	111	80	23	21	431	20	41	11	26	272	17	10	5	39	7	13	11	4	18	30	18	10	0	124	162	20	13	16	167	197	87	78	273	29	18	30	6	15	18	25	2	73	22	8	14	54	343	42	6	31	434	20	24	168	33	25	32	39	46	33	94
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-12	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	04-16	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	03-25	--	04-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21
Previous peak daily increment										47												21						65						25		38																													68																																																																											43				39		81																																										25																																																										44																	30														25							28																														30
Low between peaks										1												1												1		1																																																																																																								1				0																																												2																																																										1																															1							1																														1

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-23 to 2020-09-29

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dudley	Ealing	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-22	244	463	591	418	734	1398	913	303	1134	2216	2387	717	988	1019	712	505	1599	1319	10405	772	2523	1310	454	4364	527	1143	497	8316	568	556	2214	372	1037	1767	470	1829	672	415	615	1055	2391	1626	448	1012	432	792	862	427	1517	1138	866	526	822	2781	2535	604	343	386	895	824	409	510	1246	4414	2220	373	519	2219	683	727	800	352	1657	308	2377	754	1780	2130	294	577	527	318	507	1933	804	967	522	486	246	586	1659	644	404	534	351	364	539	842	197	616	2022	484	642	260	691	467	1237	674	1203	424	1087	520	1161	452	969	1683	318	865	198	433	1394	1000	690	594	1584	682	619	1581	1015	846	766	456	844	827	788	909	1728	939	4099	1751	1857	1040	6840	6801	421	1536	511	428	5061	1996	737	299	6424	486	1214	254	209	1137	376	707	1359	1119	385	590	550	2782	959	1871	720	305	469	323	901	1114	1445	409	406	2033	2253	404	1740	1063	722	3912	1155	1256	1791	902	648	2096	946	1751	903	494	902	301	772	331	3097	348	614	2580	595	438	545	673	167	2775	2985	710	445	2437	500	452	5734	1698	896	1519	499	288	456	524	977	141	534	697	392	338	696	748	390	533	1672	1111	860	1905	474	743	1889	738	466	418	2513	1291	1989	630	336	2866	515	1193	635	1364	2778	446	397	797	697	593	307	463	696	433	335	1360	2135	581	367	592	2560	2132	1422	1696	2153	561	735	589	549	490	548	585	993	247	610	620	1144	3113	1602	541	646	3429	474	709	2133	507	530	559	622	828	516	1201
2020-09-23	246	465	597	420	740	1399	916	304	1146	2224	2398	722	993	1021	714	509	1599	1334	10620	780	2565	1323	458	4456	528	1153	501	8393	570	558	2226	375	1042	1778	471	1836	676	423	621	1090	2443	1648	450	1018	436	800	870	430	1524	1149	869	526	825	2781	2560	607	345	388	903	827	411	513	1274	4477	2250	382	520	2228	685	728	802	354	1668	309	2403	757	1800	2133	295	579	530	320	509	1938	808	969	523	487	247	589	1672	648	406	538	358	366	540	842	198	625	2061	487	650	261	694	470	1244	677	1272	428	1097	524	1171	452	977	1692	319	881	199	438	1406	1003	696	600	1596	686	622	1593	1018	875	767	457	852	832	791	911	1733	943	4206	1766	1869	1046	6972	6859	422	1544	514	432	5247	2013	739	301	6590	489	1215	255	211	1141	377	709	1385	1125	386	593	556	2872	963	1888	724	311	472	326	908	1114	1458	410	409	2042	2289	406	1757	1071	724	3984	1161	1269	1798	909	652	2161	950	1771	915	499	905	307	777	337	3158	350	616	2604	604	441	550	675	168	2848	3031	716	446	2498	507	454	5750	1706	902	1542	500	290	458	528	983	142	537	700	393	340	698	756	391	538	1708	1115	864	1917	478	750	1944	744	468	421	2561	1310	2001	633	338	2932	517	1204	638	1366	2838	449	399	802	698	594	308	465	700	435	336	1360	2170	584	369	594	2582	2165	1434	1708	2215	565	738	592	551	492	551	587	1002	251	611	623	1151	3198	1608	542	650	3500	477	712	2156	510	534	563	626	836	521	1220
2020-09-24	248	468	602	423	745	1400	919	304	1157	2237	2408	728	998	1023	716	513	1604	1348	10840	789	2607	1336	461	4545	529	1163	504	8520	571	559	2238	377	1046	1788	473	1843	680	429	626	1113	2495	1669	452	1025	439	807	878	433	1530	1160	871	528	828	2802	2585	610	347	389	911	830	412	516	1301	4537	2279	390	521	2236	687	730	805	356	1678	311	2422	760	1820	2144	296	580	532	322	511	1942	812	971	523	488	248	592	1685	652	408	542	370	368	541	844	199	633	2098	490	657	261	696	472	1251	679	1338	432	1101	528	1181	452	985	1702	320	896	201	443	1418	1005	701	605	1608	690	625	1605	1020	903	769	458	860	836	795	912	1737	948	4292	1793	1879	1051	7103	6914	423	1552	518	436	5460	2029	741	303	6755	493	1217	256	213	1146	378	711	1408	1131	387	595	562	2966	966	1904	727	316	475	330	913	1121	1470	410	411	2052	2350	409	1773	1079	727	4053	1166	1293	1804	916	656	2213	953	1790	926	503	908	313	781	343	3216	351	627	2627	614	445	555	677	169	2894	3083	721	448	2577	513	455	5765	1714	907	1566	502	292	461	531	988	143	541	703	395	341	700	764	392	543	1745	1119	869	1929	481	756	1995	749	471	424	2606	1329	2013	637	340	2996	519	1213	641	1369	2889	452	401	806	699	595	309	468	703	437	337	1377	2200	586	371	596	2603	2198	1444	1718	2260	569	742	595	552	495	555	589	1011	254	613	627	1159	3275	1613	542	654	3578	479	715	2175	514	538	567	630	843	525	1237
2020-09-25	249	470	607	425	750	1402	922	305	1169	2250	2418	733	1003	1025	719	516	1613	1361	11060	797	2649	1349	464	4635	530	1173	507	8635	572	561	2250	379	1051	1799	474	1851	684	436	632	1145	2548	1691	454	1034	442	815	885	436	1537	1171	874	530	831	2825	2609	613	349	391	918	832	414	519	1327	4596	2310	398	522	2245	690	732	807	358	1688	312	2433	763	1839	2162	297	582	535	324	513	1947	816	973	524	489	249	595	1697	656	409	545	385	370	542	845	200	641	2133	493	665	262	699	475	1258	682	1388	436	1107	532	1191	453	993	1711	321	911	202	448	1429	1008	707	610	1619	694	627	1616	1022	931	770	459	867	841	798	914	1742	952	4374	1822	1891	1056	7235	6969	424	1559	521	439	5669	2045	743	306	6920	496	1218	257	215	1150	379	713	1431	1137	388	598	567	3086	970	1921	731	321	478	333	920	1127	1482	411	413	2061	2407	411	1790	1086	729	4127	1171	1319	1811	923	660	2267	956	1809	938	508	911	319	786	348	3276	353	635	2649	623	448	560	679	170	2955	3131	727	449	2651	520	457	5782	1721	913	1589	503	294	463	535	994	144	544	706	396	343	701	772	394	548	1783	1123	873	1940	485	762	2034	754	473	427	2655	1346	2025	640	342	3062	521	1222	645	1373	2953	454	403	811	700	596	310	470	706	439	338	1395	2228	589	373	598	2624	2231	1455	1730	2311	572	745	598	554	497	558	592	1019	257	614	630	1166	3347	1619	543	658	3649	482	717	2200	517	543	571	635	850	529	1255
2020-09-26	251	472	613	427	755	1403	924	306	1179	2261	2428	738	1007	1026	721	520	1622	1374	11280	806	2691	1361	468	4723	531	1182	511	8729	574	562	2260	382	1056	1809	476	1858	688	442	637	1180	2600	1713	455	1039	446	822	892	439	1543	1182	876	534	834	2840	2633	616	350	393	925	835	416	522	1353	4652	2339	406	522	2253	692	733	809	359	1698	313	2446	766	1858	2174	297	583	538	326	515	1951	820	975	525	490	250	598	1710	660	411	549	398	371	543	845	201	649	2167	495	672	263	701	478	1265	684	1441	440	1114	535	1201	455	1000	1720	322	925	203	452	1441	1011	712	615	1630	697	630	1628	1025	960	772	460	875	846	801	916	1747	956	4454	1862	1901	1061	7368	7022	425	1567	524	443	5868	2061	745	308	7087	499	1219	259	217	1154	380	715	1453	1143	389	601	572	3189	974	1936	735	326	481	336	925	1136	1492	412	415	2070	2454	414	1805	1094	732	4200	1177	1356	1817	929	664	2320	959	1827	948	512	913	325	790	354	3334	354	641	2672	633	451	564	681	171	3004	3175	732	450	2699	526	458	5798	1728	918	1612	504	295	465	538	999	145	548	708	397	345	703	779	395	553	1821	1127	877	1951	488	768	2085	759	475	430	2703	1363	2036	643	343	3128	522	1231	647	1375	3006	457	405	815	701	597	312	472	709	441	339	1408	2249	591	375	600	2644	2263	1465	1740	2368	576	748	601	556	499	561	594	1027	260	615	633	1173	3404	1624	543	662	3707	484	720	2215	520	546	574	639	857	533	1271
2020-09-27	253	474	618	429	761	1404	927	306	1190	2272	2438	744	1012	1028	723	523	1630	1387	11500	814	2734	1374	471	4812	531	1192	514	8834	575	564	2271	384	1060	1819	477	1864	691	447	643	1210	2654	1735	457	1049	449	829	899	442	1549	1193	878	539	837	2854	2657	619	352	394	932	838	417	525	1379	4709	2369	414	523	2262	694	735	810	361	1708	314	2466	769	1877	2186	298	584	540	328	517	1955	824	978	525	491	251	601	1722	664	413	553	416	373	544	847	202	657	2201	498	680	263	703	480	1272	687	1500	443	1116	539	1210	457	1008	1729	323	939	204	457	1452	1013	718	620	1642	701	633	1639	1027	989	773	460	882	850	804	917	1751	960	4525	1902	1912	1066	7503	7075	426	1574	528	446	6068	2076	746	310	7258	503	1221	260	219	1158	381	716	1474	1149	389	603	577	3319	977	1952	738	330	484	340	931	1139	1503	412	417	2080	2507	416	1821	1101	735	4275	1182	1385	1823	936	668	2374	962	1846	959	516	916	330	794	359	3394	356	645	2694	643	455	569	683	171	3041	3213	737	452	2751	533	459	5813	1735	923	1636	506	297	468	542	1005	146	551	711	399	346	705	787	396	558	1860	1130	881	1962	492	774	2117	765	478	433	2752	1380	2048	646	345	3196	524	1240	650	1379	3064	460	407	819	702	598	313	475	712	443	340	1420	2271	594	377	602	2664	2295	1475	1751	2427	579	751	604	557	502	564	596	1035	264	617	637	1180	3464	1629	544	666	3760	487	723	2224	523	550	578	643	863	537	1288
2020-09-28	255	477	623	431	766	1405	930	307	1201	2292	2448	749	1016	1030	725	527	1637	1400	11730	822	2777	1387	474	4902	532	1202	518	8954	576	565	2282	386	1065	1829	479	1871	695	453	648	1246	2709	1757	459	1056	452	837	905	445	1556	1204	881	541	840	2876	2681	622	354	396	939	840	419	528	1404	4766	2400	421	524	2270	696	737	812	363	1717	316	2482	772	1896	2204	299	586	543	330	519	1959	828	980	526	492	253	604	1734	668	414	556	429	375	545	849	203	665	2235	501	687	264	706	483	1278	689	1552	447	1122	542	1220	458	1015	1738	324	954	205	461	1464	1016	723	625	1653	704	635	1651	1029	1019	774	461	890	855	808	919	1756	965	4594	1954	1923	1071	7641	7129	427	1582	531	450	6254	2092	748	312	7433	506	1222	261	221	1163	382	718	1496	1154	390	606	583	3447	981	1968	741	335	487	343	937	1151	1514	413	419	2089	2579	418	1837	1109	737	4351	1188	1424	1830	942	672	2430	965	1864	970	521	919	337	799	365	3454	357	648	2716	652	458	574	685	172	3086	3245	743	453	2819	539	461	5829	1742	928	1660	507	299	470	545	1010	147	554	713	400	348	706	794	397	563	1899	1134	885	1972	496	781	2163	770	480	436	2801	1397	2059	649	347	3264	525	1248	653	1385	3121	463	409	823	703	599	314	477	715	445	340	1445	2297	596	379	604	2685	2327	1485	1762	2480	583	754	606	559	504	568	598	1043	267	618	640	1187	3514	1635	545	670	3827	489	725	2251	526	554	581	647	870	541	1304
2020-09-29	256	479	629	433	771	1406	933	307	1212	2305	2458	754	1021	1032	727	530	1646	1413	11970	831	2822	1399	478	4993	533	1212	521	9063	578	567	2293	388	1070	1840	480	1878	699	459	654	1289	2765	1780	461	1064	456	844	912	448	1562	1215	883	544	842	2895	2705	625	356	398	946	843	420	531	1430	4823	2431	429	525	2279	698	738	814	365	1727	317	2499	775	1915	2220	300	587	545	332	521	1963	832	982	527	493	254	606	1747	672	416	560	442	376	546	850	204	673	2269	504	695	265	708	485	1285	691	1598	451	1130	546	1230	462	1022	1747	326	968	207	466	1475	1019	729	630	1664	708	638	1662	1032	1050	776	462	897	860	811	920	1760	969	4666	2006	1933	1076	7781	7183	428	1589	534	453	6445	2108	750	315	7613	510	1223	262	223	1167	382	720	1518	1160	391	608	588	3535	984	1984	745	340	490	346	942	1159	1525	414	421	2098	2631	421	1853	1116	740	4428	1193	1449	1836	949	676	2487	968	1883	980	525	922	343	803	370	3517	359	660	2739	662	461	579	687	173	3131	3284	748	454	2886	545	462	5845	1749	933	1685	508	300	472	548	1016	148	558	716	401	350	708	802	398	568	1940	1138	888	1983	499	787	2213	775	482	439	2852	1415	2071	652	349	3335	527	1257	656	1386	3174	465	411	827	704	600	315	479	718	447	341	1465	2312	599	381	606	2705	2360	1495	1772	2535	587	757	609	561	506	571	600	1052	270	619	644	1194	3558	1640	545	674	3907	492	728	2271	529	558	585	651	877	546	1321

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-23 to 2020-09-29

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dudley	Ealing	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-22	244	463	591	418	734	1398	913	303	1134	2216	2387	717	988	1019	712	505	1599	1319	10405	772	2523	1310	454	4364	527	1143	497	8316	568	556	2214	372	1037	1767	470	1829	672	415	615	1055	2391	1626	448	1012	432	792	862	427	1517	1138	866	526	822	2781	2535	604	343	386	895	824	409	510	1246	4414	2220	373	519	2219	683	727	800	352	1657	308	2377	754	1780	2130	294	577	527	318	507	1933	804	967	522	486	246	586	1659	644	404	534	351	364	539	842	197	616	2022	484	642	260	691	467	1237	674	1203	424	1087	520	1161	452	969	1683	318	865	198	433	1394	1000	690	594	1584	682	619	1581	1015	846	766	456	844	827	788	909	1728	939	4099	1751	1857	1040	6840	6801	421	1536	511	428	5061	1996	737	299	6424	486	1214	254	209	1137	376	707	1359	1119	385	590	550	2782	959	1871	720	305	469	323	901	1114	1445	409	406	2033	2253	404	1740	1063	722	3912	1155	1256	1791	902	648	2096	946	1751	903	494	902	301	772	331	3097	348	614	2580	595	438	545	673	167	2775	2985	710	445	2437	500	452	5734	1698	896	1519	499	288	456	524	977	141	534	697	392	338	696	748	390	533	1672	1111	860	1905	474	743	1889	738	466	418	2513	1291	1989	630	336	2866	515	1193	635	1364	2778	446	397	797	697	593	307	463	696	433	335	1360	2135	581	367	592	2560	2132	1422	1696	2153	561	735	589	549	490	548	585	993	247	610	620	1144	3113	1602	541	646	3429	474	709	2133	507	530	559	622	828	516	1201
2020-09-23	246	466	597	420	739	1400	916	304	1148	2231	2398	723	995	1022	714	510	1609	1329	10640	779	2575	1323	457	4465	528	1152	501	8433	570	557	2230	375	1041	1777	471	1837	675	421	620	1089	2447	1650	450	1018	436	798	868	429	1525	1148	868	529	824	2803	2562	607	345	388	905	827	412	512	1268	4478	2254	381	520	2228	685	733	802	354	1669	310	2398	756	1800	2146	295	578	531	319	509	1944	807	969	523	487	247	589	1673	650	406	539	360	366	539	844	198	626	2069	487	647	261	695	470	1246	677	1244	429	1094	524	1171	455	979	1692	319	881	199	436	1406	1002	694	601	1599	687	621	1593	1018	868	767	457	853	831	791	911	1734	944	4185	1802	1869	1047	6974	6861	422	1544	514	432	5239	2010	740	300	6566	490	1220	255	212	1141	377	709	1376	1126	386	592	556	2879	963	1889	724	311	472	326	910	1121	1476	411	410	2042	2312	407	1760	1072	729	3968	1161	1284	1798	911	653	2140	951	1773	913	499	904	307	776	336	3166	350	628	2604	604	443	549	675	168	2843	3038	715	447	2498	507	454	5788	1708	905	1537	500	290	459	528	982	143	537	702	393	340	698	757	391	540	1715	1116	866	1920	477	750	1937	744	468	420	2543	1307	2002	634	338	2938	518	1201	637	1368	2826	449	399	803	698	595	309	465	700	435	336	1377	2163	584	370	595	2584	2162	1438	1708	2205	566	738	594	550	492	550	588	1005	250	611	621	1153	3172	1609	542	651	3510	476	713	2163	511	535	564	626	836	522	1217
2020-09-24	248	468	603	422	744	1401	919	304	1164	2243	2408	728	999	1024	717	514	1614	1335	10870	788	2619	1336	460	4567	529	1162	505	8553	571	559	2242	378	1047	1788	472	1844	678	425	625	1117	2502	1673	452	1025	440	800	871	432	1532	1159	870	531	825	2823	2583	610	346	389	913	830	413	515	1284	4532	2284	389	521	2236	687	738	805	356	1681	311	2419	760	1818	2157	295	580	533	321	511	1953	811	971	524	488	248	592	1685	654	407	543	365	368	540	845	199	633	2113	489	651	261	697	473	1252	679	1282	434	1099	528	1181	457	988	1701	321	892	200	439	1420	1004	700	606	1610	691	624	1605	1020	893	768	458	861	835	794	913	1738	948	4252	1851	1879	1051	7093	6916	423	1551	518	435	5417	2025	741	302	6701	494	1224	256	214	1145	378	711	1389	1132	387	595	560	2962	967	1908	727	314	475	329	916	1127	1506	413	412	2051	2361	409	1777	1079	738	4023	1167	1304	1803	918	657	2175	954	1794	919	502	907	311	779	339	3228	352	646	2627	615	446	554	677	169	2893	3089	720	448	2553	514	455	5835	1715	910	1561	501	292	460	531	988	144	541	705	394	342	700	764	392	544	1759	1121	870	1931	480	757	1984	750	470	423	2576	1322	2012	637	340	3001	519	1206	639	1371	2869	451	401	808	699	597	310	468	704	437	337	1391	2182	586	372	597	2606	2190	1450	1718	2248	569	742	597	551	495	554	591	1014	254	612	626	1160	3219	1614	542	656	3599	478	716	2187	515	538	567	631	844	526	1229
2020-09-25	250	471	608	425	749	1402	922	305	1176	2255	2418	733	1004	1026	719	517	1621	1342	11100	797	2660	1349	463	4664	530	1172	508	8665	572	560	2253	380	1052	1799	474	1851	681	430	630	1145	2551	1695	454	1034	444	803	873	436	1538	1170	872	533	827	2844	2605	612	348	390	919	833	415	518	1300	4585	2315	394	522	2244	689	743	806	357	1693	312	2434	763	1836	2171	296	581	536	324	514	1962	816	973	525	489	250	594	1698	658	410	549	370	369	541	846	200	641	2156	491	654	262	699	475	1258	680	1314	438	1105	531	1191	460	995	1707	322	903	201	441	1433	1006	705	611	1623	695	626	1616	1023	918	769	458	869	840	797	915	1742	952	4316	1900	1889	1057	7210	6977	424	1559	522	439	5600	2039	742	303	6839	498	1228	257	216	1150	379	712	1400	1138	387	599	564	3049	970	1922	730	317	478	332	922	1132	1538	415	414	2059	2410	411	1793	1086	747	4079	1172	1323	1809	924	661	2215	956	1815	926	504	910	315	784	341	3293	354	661	2650	626	450	559	678	170	2952	3135	724	449	2606	520	456	5883	1723	915	1583	502	293	463	535	994	145	544	707	395	343	701	771	393	549	1805	1126	874	1941	482	763	2019	756	473	426	2608	1336	2022	640	343	3065	523	1211	641	1374	2917	454	403	812	700	599	311	470	708	439	338	1404	2200	589	373	598	2627	2218	1462	1732	2293	572	745	599	552	497	557	593	1021	257	614	629	1167	3263	1619	543	662	3681	480	718	2215	520	542	570	635	852	530	1241
2020-09-26	252	473	614	427	752	1403	925	305	1187	2264	2428	737	1008	1027	721	520	1629	1347	11330	807	2699	1362	467	4770	531	1181	511	8762	572	561	2264	383	1056	1808	475	1858	683	434	635	1175	2598	1720	455	1040	447	805	876	439	1544	1180	873	536	828	2860	2628	615	349	391	929	836	417	521	1318	4636	2345	400	523	2251	691	748	808	359	1704	314	2447	766	1854	2184	297	582	538	326	515	1970	820	975	526	490	251	597	1711	663	411	553	375	371	543	846	201	648	2197	493	658	263	701	478	1264	681	1348	443	1111	535	1201	463	1001	1714	323	914	202	443	1445	1008	710	616	1635	698	628	1628	1025	943	770	459	876	842	800	916	1745	957	4380	1953	1898	1060	7330	7035	425	1567	526	443	5778	2052	744	305	6978	502	1234	258	218	1154	380	714	1412	1144	388	601	567	3136	973	1941	734	320	480	335	928	1139	1567	417	416	2067	2456	413	1810	1093	756	4139	1178	1352	1813	931	666	2263	958	1836	932	507	912	318	787	344	3324	355	678	2672	637	452	564	680	170	3008	3180	729	450	2650	527	458	5931	1730	919	1609	504	295	465	538	999	146	548	709	397	345	703	780	395	554	1851	1130	878	1950	485	770	2064	762	476	429	2641	1351	2032	644	346	3129	524	1215	643	1376	2963	457	405	817	701	601	312	472	710	441	339	1415	2217	591	375	600	2646	2246	1473	1741	2341	576	748	601	553	499	560	596	1030	261	615	631	1174	3303	1625	544	666	3747	482	721	2238	523	546	572	639	860	534	1252
2020-09-27	253	476	620	429	758	1404	927	306	1199	2274	2439	742	1012	1029	723	523	1636	1353	11560	816	2737	1376	471	4856	532	1191	514	8862	573	563	2276	385	1062	1817	476	1865	686	438	641	1205	2645	1744	457	1048	451	808	878	441	1551	1191	875	540	830	2875	2649	618	351	392	939	839	419	524	1332	4689	2376	406	524	2259	693	753	810	360	1716	315	2466	769	1872	2195	298	584	540	328	516	1978	823	977	527	491	252	599	1724	667	412	556	381	373	544	848	202	654	2239	495	661	263	703	480	1270	683	1383	448	1116	539	1211	466	1008	1721	324	926	203	446	1456	1012	715	621	1647	702	630	1639	1028	970	771	460	884	847	804	918	1749	961	4434	2009	1907	1062	7444	7071	426	1575	530	446	5956	2065	746	307	7121	506	1238	258	220	1158	380	715	1422	1150	388	603	572	3229	977	1957	737	324	483	338	934	1144	1599	419	417	2076	2506	415	1827	1099	765	4199	1184	1370	1817	938	670	2301	961	1857	938	509	915	322	791	346	3366	357	692	2697	649	455	568	682	171	3058	3219	736	451	2694	533	459	5979	1738	924	1632	505	297	467	542	1005	146	552	712	398	347	704	788	396	558	1898	1134	882	1958	488	777	2102	768	478	433	2674	1365	2041	647	348	3195	525	1220	645	1380	3008	460	407	821	702	603	313	475	713	443	340	1426	2232	593	376	601	2663	2274	1484	1751	2396	579	751	602	555	502	563	598	1038	265	616	634	1180	3340	1630	544	673	3810	485	723	2259	525	550	576	643	867	539	1264
2020-09-28	255	478	626	431	762	1406	930	306	1210	2289	2449	747	1016	1030	725	527	1641	1358	11810	825	2776	1389	475	4955	532	1200	518	8970	574	564	2287	388	1067	1828	477	1872	689	441	646	1237	2695	1767	459	1056	455	811	881	444	1557	1203	876	541	831	2890	2670	620	352	393	948	842	420	527	1348	4741	2408	411	526	2267	695	758	812	361	1727	316	2485	772	1891	2211	298	586	543	330	517	1986	827	978	529	492	253	602	1737	671	414	560	386	375	545	849	204	661	2280	497	665	264	706	482	1276	684	1419	452	1122	542	1221	468	1016	1727	325	937	204	448	1466	1016	721	627	1659	706	633	1651	1030	997	772	461	892	852	807	919	1753	966	4486	2069	1919	1067	7564	7128	426	1583	534	450	6139	2078	748	309	7268	510	1243	259	222	1162	381	717	1435	1156	389	605	575	3325	980	1974	741	327	485	340	940	1150	1631	421	419	2084	2560	417	1845	1106	774	4259	1189	1391	1823	945	674	2343	963	1878	944	512	917	326	794	349	3418	359	703	2716	660	459	574	684	172	3108	3252	742	452	2751	540	460	6027	1746	929	1655	506	299	469	546	1011	147	555	714	399	348	706	797	397	563	1943	1137	886	1968	490	783	2153	774	481	436	2707	1380	2052	650	349	3264	526	1225	647	1383	3053	463	409	826	702	605	314	477	716	445	340	1441	2247	596	378	602	2682	2303	1494	1762	2446	582	754	604	557	504	567	600	1046	269	616	638	1187	3380	1635	545	678	3887	487	726	2288	529	554	580	647	875	543	1277
2020-09-29	257	481	631	433	766	1407	933	307	1221	2298	2459	751	1020	1031	727	531	1646	1363	12050	835	2818	1403	479	5054	533	1210	521	9073	575	566	2298	390	1074	1838	479	1879	692	447	651	1270	2750	1789	460	1064	459	814	883	447	1563	1214	877	543	832	2905	2690	623	353	395	956	845	422	530	1364	4789	2438	419	527	2275	696	763	814	363	1738	318	2506	775	1909	2223	299	587	545	333	520	1994	831	981	529	492	254	604	1750	676	415	563	391	377	546	849	205	667	2321	499	669	265	708	484	1281	685	1453	457	1129	546	1230	471	1022	1734	326	948	206	450	1478	1021	726	632	1672	710	637	1663	1033	1024	773	462	899	857	810	921	1756	970	4546	2127	1929	1071	7685	7185	427	1590	538	454	6326	2091	750	311	7417	515	1245	260	224	1166	382	719	1446	1162	390	607	578	3418	984	1989	744	330	489	343	946	1157	1661	423	421	2093	2607	419	1861	1112	784	4315	1195	1404	1826	951	678	2392	965	1900	951	515	920	330	798	351	3460	360	722	2738	672	462	579	686	173	3165	3293	746	454	2804	547	461	6076	1753	934	1684	507	301	472	550	1016	148	558	717	401	350	707	804	398	569	1992	1141	890	1975	493	790	2197	780	483	439	2743	1395	2062	654	350	3333	527	1229	649	1384	3102	466	411	830	703	607	315	479	719	447	341	1452	2263	598	379	604	2699	2332	1505	1772	2501	586	757	606	559	507	570	601	1056	273	618	641	1195	3415	1640	545	682	3985	489	728	2314	532	558	582	651	883	548	1289

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

2020-10-13

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-22 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-22