COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-06 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-06

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-06

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-1504-2104-2904-2904-0904-1404-1704-1003-2803-2504-2303-2804-1803-2705-1404-0204-1803-30 -- --05-1404-1004-1808-2604-0204-1904-04 --05-0308-1603-2603-2603-3004-1604-2603-2705-1103-1808-2403-2804-0807-2004-0803-2804-0804-0804-2103-2904-1705-0904-1604-0303-3005-0504-2105-0605-0305-0804-0704-1704-1105-0304-1904-0204-2004-0204-1104-2003-2704-0304-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1204-2104-2104-1604-1604-2204-1604-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-0203-3004-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-0503-3003-2904-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2604-2304-1508-2604-1803-2607-0103-2304-1303-2604-1304-1903-2405-03 --04-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-1004-2204-0704-2303-3103-2503-26 --06-1404-1303-2503-2508-2503-3104-0304-2703-2203-30 --05-2403-2903-2305-0403-2503-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-3003-2503-2804-2903-2504-2004-1803-2604-2603-2504-1805-0404-2203-2904-0804-1008-0204-1004-2004-1404-2205-1207-3003-3107-2704-2904-1404-1405-0404-0803-3004-2208-1104-0505-2403-1904-2103-3104-2008-2005-1404-1704-2904-1304-1404-0505-0704-2008-2603-2304-1804-2203-29 --03-2603-2304-2004-23 --05-2603-2304-1504-0104-1703-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2705-0904-1604-2603-2104-1504-1803-2703-2704-1403-2904-1504-1504-1403-3004-0104-2004-2404-1003-3003-3104-0604-0504-0707-2605-1103-2104-0704-1505-1204-1404-1704-0204-1304-1703-2504-1104-1704-0603-2503-2705-1304-2703-2504-2203-2503-2303-2403-3103-2404-0304-1304-1808-0205-1004-0704-1804-2004-2104-1904-1403-1704-1505-0308-1804-0803-3004-1404-1404-1704-1508-2604-1503-2904-2004-1304-21
Peak daily increment 5 8 8 18 12 22 13 6 19 47 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 30 28 21 6 67 8 20 8 11 10 51 7 13 25 13 38 21 6 9 8 23 14 6 19 7 15 25 6 19 14 16 12 12 40 31 9 14 7 12 23 8 7 17 4 68 22 5 11 49 9 15 19 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 34 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 6 8 26 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 12 36 7 14 7 10 14 25 13 15 6 33 6 21 10 12 30 6 14 3 9 28 43 13 7 24 9 11 23 29 20 16 16 16 18 23 43 16 28 21 39 32 75 6 37 8 11 54 23 24 4 5 17 24 3 4 24 10 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 33 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 20 10 5 68 37 7 25 13 5 36 21 14 33 18 12 22 22 29 14 10 17 4 15 11 22 7 12 4 30 9 6 7 14 2 3 33 30 21 7 35 8 69 21 18 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 18 10 8 8 22 17 15 44 8 12 31 18 7 7 31 17 27 14 9 48 9 28 9 16 27 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 21 7 11 6 9 6 24 22 10 15 9 28 31 28 32 28 9 12 12 8 7 8 11 2 14 4 11 14 19 53 37 10 7 45 8 15 28 12 11 10 6 16 10 30
Days from 100 to peak -2 21 23 19 7 16 20 -4 10 14 34 8 25 9 40 2 25 13 46 11 8 155 -4 25 4 30 134 15 -6 7 27 18 14 45 -12 145 -6 16 113 3 13 7 10 28 -7 26 37 23 7 3 44 30 34 23 37 8 17 12 12 28 -7 30 15 0 20 15 9 21 7 -21 6 6 25 25 39 24 15 1 16 16 17 3 11 26 18 21 10 15 -3 1 16 3 -3 12 -6 18 19 35 -21 56 6 17 20 4 1 40 14 9 3 -6 31 7 11 -2 18 14 17 9 108 19 8 90 2 7 11 10 20 9 31 16 6 0 7 32 11 21 18 32 7 15 8 85 9 12 -2 131 15 13 30 -30 -8 44 8 -47 -11 11 -29 11 26 3 32 38 0 -12 10 27 10 -8 19 -15 22 -10 16 17 20 6 4 5 132 17 11 24 29 28 132 7 111 29 16 21 37 14 14 26 131 15 32 1 3 9 10 130 21 28 22 10 10 7 -77 -10 160 7 14 13 8 -4 12 28 35 48 -12 14 1 24 -131 14 22 7 14 -14 43 13 13 -4 19 27 3 18 13 5 24 11 5 -5 12 25 29 14 -3 9 6 19 9 119 50 -10 6 3 44 15 19 -3 15 18 1 9 13 9 7 36 19 -3 31 9 7 14 7 -4 9 14 16 106 36 12 24 -5 20 5 7 23 42 148 14 9 10 19 34 13 141 17 1 19 14 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 31 43 54 43 30 30 37 30 22 21 43 17 36 24 56 25 35 24 56 25 41 162 17 40 27 52 155 21 17 31 39 43 21 62 13 171 12 29 128 33 26 32 24 41 24 40 57 43 24 21 55 41 59 54 67 29 33 30 49 45 35 35 25 33 41 21 33 36 20 20 16 40 33 42 61 34 24 39 61 39 45 29 41 38 39 36 38 39 44 19 26 17 15 42 24 43 46 61 14 82 13 43 37 39 17 57 23 31 18 24 42 47 22 12 39 22 44 27 165 42 18 106 17 43 22 34 43 21 49 33 36 11 25 51 26 30 32 42 17 22 14 91 33 20 19 162 21 24 43 11 18 71 21 16 54 22 10 41 43 11 44 60 18 27 19 44 17 28 43 13 45 16 32 50 37 19 31 35 137 26 40 39 50 63 142 26 133 44 34 39 48 29 22 38 152 29 69 13 34 21 36 155 63 36 53 38 37 25 53 42 168 15 32 46 16 14 16 42 50 71 21 42 27 42 27 40 53 20 38 18 59 35 44 16 31 41 16 25 35 27 31 26 36 24 24 40 40 32 18 16 24 29 30 136 64 10 28 47 61 31 43 26 30 41 17 35 49 26 22 21 62 45 17 40 18 16 22 15 13 20 37 41 141 62 30 52 35 41 44 32 18 29 55 169 38 16 39 41 44 34 163 35 28 35 36 36
Last total 210 418 480 375 630 1375 860 292 935 1991 2213 625 897 985 674 445 1477 1203 7466 626 1959 1134 386 2823 509 966 436 6745 538 518 2002 330 924 1586 439 1704 602 338 519 696 1724 1288 415 872 358 746 817 368 1389 950 823 483 768 2488 2217 545 314 357 754 769 375 452 1013 233 3696 1802 288 493 2068 637 644 764 317 1464 282 2113 702 743 1507 1893 213 271 552 477 279 471 1748 729 927 482 470 225 536 1428 570 374 461 285 332 517 824 177 504 1485 430 590 247 648 420 1108 631 779 346 973 453 984 410 834 1522 297 704 174 391 1195 940 601 500 1369 612 562 1371 964 540 742 440 715 746 724 874 1640 858 3226 1153 1660 938 5078 5942 408 1396 448 358 3147 1788 702 154 261 4711 403 1150 235 171 1058 234 359 674 1175 1008 365 538 474 1854 891 1595 140 650 254 420 264 786 231 1009 1055 372 366 1867 1750 361 1459 958 577 3101 1059 977 1675 777 573 1562 894 1394 798 449 853 246 688 292 2426 318 398 209 2249 451 375 457 634 118 151 2028 2350 613 421 1797 385 425 4909 1557 797 1145 474 257 412 458 875 122 724 471 647 365 309 670 605 371 442 1137 1037 780 1702 409 619 1361 642 424 361 2075 1086 1777 574 298 2069 481 1112 591 1302 2122 393 361 235 714 678 557 286 940 420 642 392 316 62 1099 1789 537 332 556 2207 1759 1225 1490 1531 492 682 540 520 444 481 546 78 838 187 585 560 1015 2442 1482 523 534 2416 429 659 1738 448 466 494 548 690 443 1000
Last daily increment 0 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 6 8 8 3 0 0 1 8 5 2 95 3 10 5 0 24 0 10 3 58 0 1 4 3 6 8 0 3 4 3 2 9 12 12 5 2 3 2 1 0 0 5 2 1 2 7 3 1 1 2 3 1 0 1 2 2 21 15 1 1 2 0 1 0 0 2 0 2 8 8 9 5 0 1 4 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 4 9 1 3 1 1 3 0 1 0 2 12 2 1 0 1 4 2 3 2 0 1 1 9 0 6 5 0 5 0 0 15 5 3 3 12 4 1 6 0 1 1 0 6 6 4 0 4 3 15 9 6 0 57 18 5 3 4 0 23 2 4 0 4 31 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 4 6 1 0 4 4 18 4 9 0 0 1 5 3 4 0 4 9 3 0 6 9 0 16 1 5 14 5 6 3 3 4 10 8 11 8 0 4 0 6 1 10 1 2 1 5 3 1 3 0 0 1 23 23 3 4 2 5 1 16 1 4 16 0 3 4 0 2 0 0 3 7 0 2 2 7 0 3 6 1 2 4 6 3 18 3 0 0 11 3 5 2 1 33 0 2 15 1 23 3 3 2 0 0 3 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 13 7 4 2 2 7 12 3 9 23 3 4 5 5 0 3 1 1 2 0 2 2 3 17 4 3 4 14 0 0 25 2 2 1 3 4 0 1
Last week 7 9 12 19 24 4 13 7 51 84 72 15 23 11 14 28 18 13 827 50 91 29 11 350 2 59 20 359 5 7 55 12 33 69 5 49 24 13 40 51 112 79 14 30 11 10 12 5 22 31 15 12 12 79 56 10 17 17 22 7 2 32 22 6 149 88 13 6 58 14 13 4 10 34 5 30 37 11 65 59 1 16 13 10 10 16 32 31 14 11 8 6 27 60 13 14 14 11 10 1 10 5 11 102 15 11 3 6 13 30 16 34 5 44 18 55 3 47 57 7 42 10 3 74 20 48 20 54 13 11 68 4 46 8 7 48 46 27 5 21 18 161 63 68 18 449 186 8 40 13 34 234 45 15 3 20 333 25 17 12 12 23 5 5 17 52 29 7 36 16 132 27 91 8 14 11 22 24 18 2 48 63 10 13 62 57 14 88 14 29 123 33 44 46 28 17 99 25 81 30 8 20 9 29 4 127 5 23 8 55 27 12 24 8 2 6 171 118 35 7 79 42 12 167 25 27 125 11 10 11 16 29 7 3 17 12 6 10 17 35 12 26 67 15 17 57 29 25 72 25 17 14 72 35 62 16 7 189 10 20 23 30 152 12 10 7 21 3 27 4 4 17 17 6 12 5 67 67 20 20 17 75 61 35 57 92 17 25 19 16 12 19 9 2 36 11 13 23 47 102 75 6 28 157 17 12 94 9 33 25 16 17 7 24
Days since peak 144 138 130 130 150 145 142 149 162 165 136 162 141 163 115 157 141 160 115 149 141 11 157 140 155 126 21 164 164 160 143 133 163 118 172 13 162 151 48 151 162 151 151 138 161 142 120 143 156 160 124 138 123 126 121 152 142 148 126 140 157 139 157 148 139 163 156 137 159 165 167 141 143 140 116 149 163 136 134 142 144 147 138 138 143 143 137 143 136 166 160 165 165 142 160 141 131 118 163 96 160 143 140 144 160 118 162 154 160 161 144 139 164 165 139 164 136 144 11 141 164 67 167 146 164 146 140 166 126 142 138 175 169 126 149 137 152 136 159 165 164 84 146 165 165 12 159 156 132 168 160 105 161 167 125 165 163 136 137 163 138 124 160 165 162 130 165 139 141 164 133 165 141 125 137 161 151 149 35 149 139 145 137 117 38 159 41 130 145 145 125 151 160 137 26 154 105 171 138 159 139 17 115 142 130 146 145 154 122 139 11 167 141 137 161 164 167 139 136 103 167 144 158 142 165 131 130 166 137 163 120 143 133 169 144 141 163 163 145 161 144 144 145 160 158 139 135 149 160 159 153 154 152 42 118 169 152 144 117 145 142 157 146 142 165 148 142 153 165 163 116 132 165 137 165 167 166 159 166 156 146 141 35 119 152 141 139 138 140 145 173 144 126 19 151 160 145 145 142 144 11 144 161 139 146 138

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-07 to 2020-09-13

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTest ValleyThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-06 210 418 480 375 630 860 292 935 1991 2213 625 897 985 674 445 1477 1203 7466 626 1959 1134 386 2823 966 436 6745 518 2002 330 924 1586 1704 602 338 519 696 1724 1288 415 872 358 746 817 1389 950 823 483 768 2488 2217 545 314 357 754 769 452 1013 233 3696 1802 288 493 2068 637 644 317 1464 2113 702 743 1507 1893 271 552 477 279 471 1748 729 927 482 470 225 536 1428 570 374 461 285 332 824 504 1485 430 590 648 420 1108 631 779 973 453 984 834 1522 297 704 174 1195 940 601 500 1369 612 562 1371 540 742 440 715 746 724 1640 858 3226 1153 1660 938 5078 5942 408 1396 448 358 3147 1788 702 261 4711 403 1150 235 171 1058 674 1175 1008 365 538 474 1854 891 1595 140 650 254 420 264 786 1009 1055 372 366 1867 1750 361 1459 958 577 3101 1059 977 1675 777 573 1562 894 1394 798 449 853 246 688 2426 398 209 2249 451 375 457 634 151 2028 2350 613 421 1797 385 425 4909 1557 797 1145 474 257 412 458 875 122 471 647 365 309 670 605 371 442 1137 1037 780 1702 409 619 1361 642 424 361 2075 1086 1777 574 298 2069 481 1112 591 1302 2122 393 361 235 714 557 420 642 392 316 1099 1789 537 332 556 2207 1759 1225 1490 1531 492 682 540 520 444 481 546 838 187 585 560 1015 2442 1482 523 534 2416 429 659 1738 448 466 494 548 690 443 1000
2020-09-07 211 419 481 378 630 862 293 941 1991 2219 627 899 986 675 448 1482 1206 7611 634 1960 1137 387 2836 975 438 6822 518 2008 332 928 1594 1709 604 340 524 701 1739 1297 417 878 359 747 819 1392 953 825 485 770 2501 2217 546 316 359 756 770 456 1018 234 3720 1812 289 494 2074 640 644 318 1470 2116 707 748 1517 1899 273 554 479 282 473 1751 732 928 483 471 225 540 1436 572 376 462 286 333 824 505 1500 432 590 650 424 1112 633 783 975 453 993 841 1529 298 708 176 1208 944 609 502 1375 613 563 1378 548 743 441 722 752 728 1642 861 3245 1160 1668 939 5150 5962 411 1397 449 360 3171 1793 703 263 4711 406 1152 236 172 1061 676 1182 1011 366 543 476 1866 895 1608 141 650 255 422 266 788 1016 1065 373 367 1873 1756 364 1470 959 580 3120 1063 984 1681 781 575 1575 897 1406 798 449 855 247 692 2441 401 210 2254 455 376 460 635 151 2028 2377 618 422 1807 391 427 4932 1561 800 1167 475 259 413 459 879 123 473 648 366 310 672 610 372 446 1147 1039 782 1709 412 622 1375 647 425 362 2091 1091 1785 576 299 2100 482 1115 601 1302 2147 395 362 236 716 563 422 644 393 317 1118 1799 542 335 558 2215 1765 1230 1496 1546 494 685 543 522 445 484 548 841 187 587 563 1021 2458 1491 524 538 2439 431 661 1758 449 469 497 551 691 444 1003
2020-09-08 211 420 482 381 630 863 293 946 2006 2223 629 902 988 677 452 1484 1209 7761 642 1978 1139 388 2875 984 440 6923 518 2014 333 932 1602 1714 606 341 529 707 1753 1306 419 884 360 748 820 1395 955 827 486 771 2511 2218 546 318 361 758 772 460 1022 234 3742 1822 290 495 2080 644 644 319 1476 2119 711 753 1527 1907 274 555 481 284 475 1754 736 930 484 471 226 543 1443 575 378 463 287 334 824 506 1515 434 591 652 427 1115 635 788 986 453 1001 848 1536 298 713 177 1221 948 617 504 1381 614 565 1385 557 744 441 729 757 732 1644 864 3264 1168 1676 940 5220 5981 413 1398 451 363 3193 1797 704 265 4711 409 1154 237 173 1064 678 1188 1015 368 548 477 1889 899 1620 141 650 256 424 269 790 1022 1074 374 368 1879 1762 367 1481 961 582 3138 1067 991 1687 785 577 1588 900 1418 798 450 858 249 696 2456 403 211 2259 458 377 462 636 152 2028 2401 623 422 1817 398 428 4955 1564 803 1186 476 260 415 459 883 124 474 649 368 311 674 615 374 449 1157 1041 785 1715 414 624 1387 651 427 363 2105 1096 1792 577 300 2128 483 1117 611 1302 2170 397 363 237 717 568 424 645 393 318 1129 1809 546 337 560 2223 1771 1235 1509 1561 495 687 545 523 447 487 550 844 187 588 567 1026 2473 1499 525 542 2462 432 663 1777 450 472 500 555 693 445 1005
2020-09-09 212 421 483 383 630 865 294 952 2019 2229 631 904 989 678 455 1486 1212 7915 650 1992 1141 389 2922 993 441 7030 519 2020 335 936 1610 1719 608 342 535 712 1767 1315 421 888 361 749 822 1398 958 829 488 773 2524 2219 547 321 363 760 773 464 1027 235 3764 1832 291 496 2086 647 644 320 1482 2121 716 757 1536 1916 275 557 483 287 476 1757 739 931 485 472 226 546 1450 577 380 465 289 336 825 507 1530 435 591 654 430 1119 637 792 991 453 1010 855 1543 299 717 179 1233 952 624 506 1387 616 566 1392 565 745 442 736 762 736 1646 867 3283 1176 1684 941 5290 6001 415 1398 452 365 3216 1801 705 267 4729 412 1155 238 174 1066 680 1194 1018 369 553 479 1914 902 1632 142 650 257 426 271 792 1028 1084 374 369 1885 1768 370 1492 962 585 3156 1071 998 1693 789 579 1601 903 1431 798 450 860 250 699 2471 406 212 2264 462 378 465 637 152 2028 2426 627 423 1826 405 430 4976 1568 806 1205 478 261 416 460 887 125 475 649 369 312 676 619 375 453 1167 1044 787 1722 417 627 1400 655 429 363 2119 1101 1800 579 301 2157 484 1120 620 1302 2194 399 364 237 719 574 425 647 394 320 1141 1819 550 340 563 2232 1777 1239 1517 1575 497 690 548 525 448 490 551 847 187 589 570 1032 2487 1508 526 546 2486 433 665 1795 451 475 503 558 694 446 1008
2020-09-10 213 422 483 386 630 867 295 957 2032 2233 634 906 990 680 458 1491 1216 8073 659 2002 1143 390 2964 1001 443 7149 519 2026 336 940 1618 1724 609 344 540 716 1781 1323 423 893 362 750 823 1401 960 831 489 774 2535 2219 548 323 365 762 774 467 1031 235 3785 1842 291 496 2092 650 644 321 1488 2123 720 761 1546 1925 277 559 485 289 478 1760 742 932 486 473 227 550 1456 580 383 466 290 337 826 508 1544 437 591 656 433 1122 639 796 998 453 1018 862 1550 300 721 180 1245 955 632 508 1393 617 567 1398 574 746 442 743 767 740 1647 869 3302 1185 1692 943 5358 6019 417 1399 454 368 3238 1806 706 269 4754 414 1157 238 176 1069 681 1200 1021 370 558 481 1936 906 1644 143 650 258 428 273 793 1035 1093 375 371 1891 1774 373 1502 963 587 3174 1075 1005 1698 792 581 1614 906 1443 798 450 862 251 703 2485 408 213 2269 465 379 467 638 153 2028 2450 631 424 1836 411 431 4998 1571 808 1223 479 263 417 461 891 125 477 650 370 313 677 624 376 456 1176 1046 789 1728 419 629 1412 659 430 364 2133 1106 1807 580 301 2184 485 1122 628 1302 2218 401 365 238 721 579 427 649 395 321 1153 1828 555 342 565 2240 1783 1244 1527 1588 498 693 551 526 450 492 553 850 187 591 573 1037 2502 1517 528 550 2509 435 667 1813 452 478 506 561 695 447 1011
2020-09-11 213 424 484 388 630 868 296 962 2045 2238 636 908 991 682 461 1494 1219 8234 667 2018 1146 391 3009 1010 444 7261 519 2032 337 944 1625 1729 611 345 545 721 1795 1332 426 900 363 751 825 1404 962 833 491 775 2545 2219 548 325 366 764 775 471 1036 236 3806 1851 292 497 2098 654 644 322 1494 2126 724 766 1555 1932 278 560 487 292 480 1763 745 933 487 473 228 553 1463 582 385 467 291 338 827 509 1559 439 592 658 436 1126 641 800 1003 453 1026 869 1556 301 726 182 1257 959 641 510 1399 618 568 1404 583 747 443 750 773 744 1649 872 3321 1191 1699 944 5426 6038 419 1399 455 370 3260 1810 707 271 4779 417 1159 239 177 1071 683 1206 1025 371 563 482 1955 909 1656 144 650 259 429 275 795 1040 1102 376 372 1897 1779 375 1513 965 589 3192 1079 1013 1704 796 583 1626 908 1455 798 451 864 253 707 2499 411 214 2274 468 380 470 639 153 2028 2473 636 425 1847 418 433 5019 1575 811 1242 480 264 419 462 895 126 478 651 371 315 679 628 377 460 1186 1048 792 1735 422 632 1424 663 432 365 2146 1111 1815 581 302 2210 486 1125 637 1302 2241 403 366 239 723 584 429 650 395 322 1162 1838 559 345 567 2248 1788 1249 1537 1601 499 695 553 528 451 495 555 853 187 592 576 1043 2516 1526 529 553 2532 436 669 1830 453 481 509 564 697 448 1013
2020-09-12 214 425 485 390 630 870 296 967 2054 2243 638 911 992 683 465 1497 1222 8399 675 2026 1148 393 3044 1019 446 7372 519 2038 339 947 1633 1734 613 347 550 726 1809 1340 428 902 363 752 827 1407 965 835 492 777 2553 2220 549 327 368 766 776 475 1040 236 3827 1861 293 498 2104 657 644 323 1500 2127 728 770 1565 1943 280 562 489 294 482 1766 748 935 488 474 228 556 1470 585 387 468 292 339 828 509 1574 440 592 659 439 1129 643 804 1010 453 1035 876 1563 301 730 183 1269 962 649 512 1405 619 570 1411 592 747 443 757 778 748 1651 875 3339 1200 1707 945 5494 6057 421 1400 456 373 3282 1814 708 274 4808 420 1161 240 178 1074 685 1212 1028 372 568 484 1982 913 1668 144 650 260 431 277 797 1045 1112 377 373 1904 1785 378 1523 966 591 3210 1083 1020 1710 799 585 1639 911 1468 798 451 867 254 711 2514 414 215 2279 472 382 472 640 154 2028 2497 640 425 1857 425 435 5041 1578 814 1260 481 265 420 463 899 127 479 652 372 316 681 633 378 463 1196 1050 794 1741 424 634 1437 666 433 365 2160 1116 1822 583 303 2237 487 1127 646 1302 2264 405 367 239 724 590 431 652 396 323 1170 1847 563 347 569 2255 1794 1254 1543 1615 501 698 556 529 453 498 556 856 187 594 579 1049 2530 1535 530 557 2555 437 670 1848 454 484 512 567 698 449 1016
2020-09-13 215 426 485 393 630 872 297 973 2060 2248 640 913 993 685 468 1500 1225 8568 683 2035 1150 394 3072 1027 448 7475 519 2044 340 951 1641 1739 615 348 555 731 1823 1349 430 904 364 753 828 1410 967 837 494 778 2561 2220 550 329 370 767 778 479 1045 237 3848 1870 294 499 2110 660 644 324 1506 2130 732 774 1575 1949 281 564 491 297 484 1769 752 936 489 475 229 560 1476 587 389 469 293 340 829 510 1589 442 592 661 442 1133 645 808 1012 453 1043 883 1570 302 734 184 1281 965 657 514 1411 621 571 1417 601 748 444 764 783 751 1652 877 3358 1208 1714 946 5563 6076 423 1401 458 375 3304 1819 709 276 4836 423 1162 241 179 1077 686 1218 1031 373 573 485 1995 916 1679 145 650 261 433 280 799 1050 1121 377 374 1910 1791 381 1534 968 593 3228 1087 1027 1716 803 587 1652 914 1480 798 452 869 255 714 2529 416 216 2284 475 383 474 641 154 2028 2520 645 426 1867 431 436 5062 1582 816 1279 482 267 421 464 903 128 481 652 374 317 682 638 380 466 1206 1052 796 1748 427 637 1449 670 435 366 2174 1121 1830 584 304 2264 488 1130 655 1302 2288 407 368 240 726 595 432 653 397 324 1183 1857 567 350 571 2263 1800 1258 1550 1628 502 700 558 530 454 500 558 859 187 595 582 1054 2544 1544 531 561 2578 438 672 1866 455 487 515 571 699 450 1018

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-07 to 2020-09-13

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTest ValleyThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-06 210 418 480 375 630 860 292 935 1991 2213 625 897 985 674 445 1477 1203 7466 626 1959 1134 386 2823 966 436 6745 518 2002 330 924 1586 1704 602 338 519 696 1724 1288 415 872 358 746 817 1389 950 823 483 768 2488 2217 545 314 357 754 769 452 1013 233 3696 1802 288 493 2068 637 644 317 1464 2113 702 743 1507 1893 271 552 477 279 471 1748 729 927 482 470 225 536 1428 570 374 461 285 332 824 504 1485 430 590 648 420 1108 631 779 973 453 984 834 1522 297 704 174 1195 940 601 500 1369 612 562 1371 540 742 440 715 746 724 1640 858 3226 1153 1660 938 5078 5942 408 1396 448 358 3147 1788 702 261 4711 403 1150 235 171 1058 674 1175 1008 365 538 474 1854 891 1595 140 650 254 420 264 786 1009 1055 372 366 1867 1750 361 1459 958 577 3101 1059 977 1675 777 573 1562 894 1394 798 449 853 246 688 2426 398 209 2249 451 375 457 634 151 2028 2350 613 421 1797 385 425 4909 1557 797 1145 474 257 412 458 875 122 471 647 365 309 670 605 371 442 1137 1037 780 1702 409 619 1361 642 424 361 2075 1086 1777 574 298 2069 481 1112 591 1302 2122 393 361 235 714 557 420 642 392 316 1099 1789 537 332 556 2207 1759 1225 1490 1531 492 682 540 520 444 481 546 838 187 585 560 1015 2442 1482 523 534 2416 429 659 1738 448 466 494 548 690 443 1000
2020-09-07 210 419 480 377 631 861 293 938 1995 2217 626 898 985 675 445 1480 1205 7605 631 1963 1135 387 2863 969 437 6830 519 2008 330 925 1593 1708 602 339 522 700 1734 1292 417 877 358 747 818 1391 951 824 484 768 2498 2221 546 315 359 755 770 455 1015 233 3702 1809 288 493 2074 640 645 318 1467 2115 704 744 1514 1896 272 553 478 280 473 1750 732 928 482 470 225 540 1431 572 375 462 286 333 824 504 1497 431 591 649 422 1111 632 782 977 455 990 838 1528 297 708 175 1199 941 608 502 1370 612 562 1375 546 742 440 721 751 727 1641 860 3237 1157 1665 939 5107 5947 409 1400 449 360 3165 1791 702 261 4737 405 1151 236 172 1060 675 1181 1011 366 540 475 1860 894 1603 140 651 255 420 265 787 1015 1057 372 367 1872 1755 362 1467 959 578 3118 1061 985 1680 781 574 1573 895 1404 800 450 855 247 690 2434 401 209 2251 453 376 459 635 151 2041 2354 615 421 1805 389 426 4925 1560 799 1156 475 257 413 459 879 123 471 647 366 309 671 607 372 443 1146 1039 782 1705 410 622 1363 644 425 361 2078 1091 1782 575 298 2084 483 1114 593 1304 2133 395 362 235 715 560 421 643 392 317 1108 1794 539 333 558 2209 1761 1230 1497 1537 493 684 542 520 445 483 548 840 188 587 561 1019 2447 1489 524 537 2438 430 661 1741 449 469 496 551 691 444 1003
2020-09-08 211 420 481 379 633 862 293 944 2009 2223 626 901 987 677 446 1483 1208 7768 638 1977 1136 388 2918 976 438 6935 521 2015 331 927 1602 1713 603 341 526 706 1746 1298 419 882 359 748 818 1394 952 825 486 769 2508 2227 546 317 361 756 771 460 1018 233 3714 1819 289 494 2082 643 646 319 1471 2118 706 745 1522 1904 273 555 480 281 475 1752 735 929 483 470 226 543 1436 575 376 463 287 333 825 505 1510 432 592 651 425 1115 633 785 986 457 996 843 1534 298 712 177 1207 941 616 504 1374 614 563 1381 554 743 441 728 757 731 1642 863 3261 1161 1674 940 5162 5959 409 1405 451 363 3190 1796 702 262 4767 408 1153 236 173 1063 677 1188 1015 367 544 475 1870 898 1615 141 653 255 421 267 788 1022 1063 372 368 1877 1761 365 1476 961 579 3136 1063 992 1687 786 576 1586 896 1416 805 451 857 248 693 2449 406 210 2254 455 377 462 636 152 2064 2361 619 422 1817 395 428 4944 1564 802 1168 476 258 414 461 883 124 473 648 367 310 672 609 373 445 1157 1041 785 1711 412 624 1366 647 427 362 2082 1098 1789 576 299 2104 485 1117 595 1307 2152 397 363 235 717 564 423 644 393 317 1118 1802 541 335 560 2211 1766 1235 1508 1546 494 687 544 521 447 486 550 843 189 588 564 1025 2456 1498 525 541 2462 430 662 1743 450 472 498 555 691 445 1006
2020-09-09 212 421 481 381 634 864 294 950 2021 2229 627 903 988 678 449 1486 1211 7932 644 1989 1138 390 2974 983 439 7042 523 2022 332 930 1611 1719 605 342 531 712 1759 1308 421 887 359 749 821 1397 953 826 488 769 2519 2234 547 319 363 759 773 464 1021 234 3729 1829 289 495 2089 646 647 319 1476 2121 709 745 1531 1913 275 557 482 282 477 1755 739 930 483 471 226 547 1441 578 379 465 289 334 826 507 1523 433 594 652 428 1118 635 788 992 459 1003 850 1542 299 717 178 1216 942 624 506 1379 615 563 1387 561 743 441 735 764 735 1643 866 3284 1167 1684 942 5232 5978 409 1411 453 365 3215 1800 703 265 4808 411 1156 237 174 1066 680 1196 1018 368 549 476 1883 902 1627 141 654 256 421 269 790 1028 1069 373 369 1882 1767 368 1486 962 580 3154 1066 999 1692 790 579 1598 898 1427 809 452 859 250 696 2473 411 210 2261 458 377 464 637 152 2088 2370 623 422 1828 401 430 4965 1568 804 1180 477 260 416 464 887 124 474 648 368 311 673 612 374 448 1169 1044 788 1717 414 627 1372 649 429 363 2088 1103 1797 578 300 2128 487 1120 597 1311 2173 399 364 235 719 568 425 646 394 318 1128 1811 543 337 562 2218 1771 1240 1516 1557 495 689 546 521 448 489 551 846 191 590 566 1032 2465 1506 525 545 2487 431 664 1747 452 476 500 559 693 446 1009
2020-09-10 213 423 482 383 636 865 295 957 2033 2234 628 905 989 680 453 1491 1213 8100 650 2000 1140 391 3031 990 441 7153 525 2030 333 934 1620 1724 607 344 536 719 1773 1318 423 891 359 750 822 1400 954 826 490 770 2531 2241 548 320 365 761 774 468 1024 234 3747 1840 290 495 2097 650 649 321 1480 2124 712 746 1540 1922 276 558 484 283 479 1757 743 932 484 471 227 551 1447 581 380 466 290 335 828 508 1536 434 595 654 430 1122 636 791 999 462 1011 857 1548 300 722 180 1226 943 632 508 1384 617 564 1394 569 744 442 741 771 739 1645 869 3307 1173 1696 943 5297 5997 410 1417 455 368 3240 1804 703 268 4854 413 1160 238 176 1069 682 1203 1022 369 555 477 1898 906 1643 142 656 257 422 271 792 1035 1076 373 370 1888 1773 370 1497 963 582 3173 1069 1008 1700 795 581 1611 900 1438 813 454 862 251 700 2489 417 211 2268 460 378 467 638 153 2110 2379 627 422 1839 407 432 4986 1572 807 1193 478 261 417 466 891 125 477 648 369 312 674 615 376 450 1181 1046 790 1722 416 630 1378 652 430 364 2096 1109 1803 580 301 2152 488 1123 598 1315 2193 401 365 236 721 572 427 648 394 319 1137 1820 546 340 565 2225 1776 1247 1526 1569 497 692 549 523 449 492 554 849 192 592 569 1038 2476 1515 526 548 2511 432 666 1752 453 479 502 562 694 447 1012
2020-09-11 214 424 482 385 638 867 296 961 2046 2240 629 907 990 681 456 1494 1215 8274 657 2012 1142 391 3088 997 443 7257 526 2037 334 937 1628 1728 609 345 540 724 1786 1327 426 897 360 751 824 1403 956 828 491 771 2540 2247 549 322 367 763 775 473 1027 235 3766 1850 291 497 2103 653 650 322 1485 2127 716 747 1548 1929 278 560 485 285 481 1759 747 933 485 472 227 554 1455 584 381 467 291 336 829 508 1549 436 597 655 433 1125 637 794 1005 464 1018 862 1552 300 726 182 1237 944 640 511 1390 619 565 1401 576 744 443 748 777 743 1645 872 3323 1178 1704 944 5355 6016 410 1423 456 371 3265 1807 704 269 4890 416 1162 239 177 1072 684 1209 1025 370 560 478 1911 910 1655 142 658 258 423 273 794 1042 1083 374 371 1894 1779 373 1507 964 583 3191 1072 1016 1704 800 583 1623 903 1450 818 455 865 253 704 2507 422 211 2274 463 379 470 639 153 2133 2393 630 423 1850 414 433 5008 1575 810 1206 479 262 418 468 895 126 478 648 371 312 675 619 377 452 1192 1048 793 1727 419 633 1384 655 432 365 2104 1115 1809 581 302 2176 489 1126 600 1319 2212 403 366 236 722 576 429 649 395 320 1143 1829 548 342 567 2231 1782 1252 1536 1580 498 694 551 523 451 495 555 852 193 593 573 1045 2484 1523 527 552 2533 432 668 1760 454 483 505 566 695 448 1015
2020-09-12 214 425 483 387 640 869 296 965 2052 2246 630 909 991 683 459 1497 1218 8447 664 2020 1145 392 3141 1004 444 7355 528 2044 336 941 1636 1733 609 347 545 728 1800 1334 428 901 361 752 825 1406 957 829 493 771 2548 2253 549 324 370 764 777 477 1030 236 3785 1860 291 497 2111 656 652 322 1489 2129 719 748 1557 1937 279 561 487 286 483 1761 750 935 486 473 228 558 1462 587 383 468 293 337 830 509 1563 437 598 657 436 1128 638 797 1010 466 1025 867 1558 301 731 183 1246 946 648 513 1396 620 566 1408 584 745 443 755 782 747 1646 875 3339 1184 1711 945 5407 6032 411 1428 458 373 3291 1811 705 270 4931 419 1164 239 178 1074 686 1216 1029 371 564 479 1928 914 1668 143 659 259 425 275 796 1049 1092 374 372 1900 1785 375 1516 965 584 3210 1076 1022 1710 804 585 1636 905 1461 822 456 866 254 707 2518 428 212 2278 465 380 473 640 153 2151 2404 634 424 1862 422 435 5031 1579 813 1219 480 263 419 470 899 127 479 649 373 314 676 621 378 455 1204 1050 796 1732 421 636 1390 658 434 367 2112 1121 1814 583 303 2200 490 1128 602 1323 2232 405 367 237 724 580 431 651 396 321 1150 1837 550 343 568 2236 1788 1256 1545 1592 499 697 554 525 452 498 557 855 195 594 575 1050 2493 1532 528 556 2552 433 670 1765 455 487 507 570 697 449 1018
2020-09-13 214 427 484 389 641 870 297 969 2057 2251 631 911 992 684 461 1500 1220 8622 670 2027 1147 393 3191 1011 446 7451 530 2050 337 944 1644 1737 610 348 550 734 1814 1341 430 903 362 753 826 1408 959 830 495 772 2558 2259 550 325 372 765 778 482 1032 236 3799 1870 292 498 2118 659 653 323 1492 2132 723 749 1566 1942 281 562 489 287 484 1763 754 936 486 473 228 562 1468 590 384 469 294 338 831 509 1576 438 600 659 439 1131 639 800 1015 468 1032 871 1563 302 736 185 1254 948 657 515 1402 622 567 1415 592 745 444 762 788 751 1647 878 3356 1190 1717 946 5458 6043 412 1434 460 376 3319 1814 705 272 4967 422 1166 240 179 1077 688 1223 1033 372 568 480 1939 918 1678 143 660 260 426 277 798 1056 1098 375 373 1906 1791 378 1526 966 586 3228 1079 1030 1715 809 587 1649 908 1472 826 458 869 255 710 2527 434 213 2281 467 381 476 641 154 2169 2412 637 425 1873 429 437 5053 1583 815 1232 480 265 421 472 903 128 481 649 374 314 678 624 380 456 1216 1053 798 1736 423 639 1397 661 435 368 2118 1127 1819 584 304 2224 491 1131 605 1327 2251 407 368 237 725 584 433 652 396 322 1158 1845 552 345 570 2239 1794 1261 1552 1603 500 699 556 526 454 501 559 857 196 595 577 1056 2502 1540 529 559 2573 434 672 1769 456 490 509 574 698 450 1021

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.