COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-06

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	04-15	04-21	04-29	04-29	04-09	04-14	04-17	04-10	03-28	07-23	04-23	03-28	04-18	03-27	05-14	04-02	04-18	03-30	--	--	07-14	04-10	04-18	08-26	04-02	04-19	04-04	--	05-03	08-16	03-26	03-26	03-30	07-17	04-26	08-25	05-11	03-18	08-24	03-28	04-08	07-20	04-08	03-28	04-08	04-08	04-21	03-29	04-17	05-09	04-16	04-03	03-30	05-05	04-21	05-06	05-03	05-08	04-07	04-17	04-11	05-03	04-19	04-02	04-20	04-02	04-11	04-20	03-27	04-03	04-22	03-31	03-25	03-23	04-18	04-16	04-19	05-13	04-10	03-27	04-23	04-25	04-17	04-15	04-12	04-21	04-21	04-16	04-16	04-22	04-16	04-23	03-24	03-30	03-25	03-25	04-17	03-30	04-18	04-28	05-11	03-27	06-02	03-30	04-16	04-19	04-15	03-30	05-11	03-28	04-05	03-30	03-29	04-15	04-20	03-26	03-25	04-20	03-26	04-23	04-15	08-26	04-18	03-26	07-01	03-23	04-13	03-26	04-13	04-19	03-24	05-03	--	04-17	04-21	03-15	03-21	05-03	04-10	07-10	04-07	04-23	03-31	07-26	03-26	--	06-14	04-13	03-25	03-25	08-25	08-01	04-03	04-27	03-22	03-30	--	05-24	03-29	03-23	05-04	03-25	03-27	04-23	04-22	03-27	04-21	05-05	03-30	03-25	03-28	04-29	03-25	04-20	04-18	03-26	04-26	03-25	04-18	05-04	04-22	03-29	04-08	04-10	08-02	04-10	04-20	08-25	04-22	05-12	07-30	03-31	07-27	04-29	04-14	04-14	05-04	04-08	03-30	04-22	08-11	04-05	05-24	03-19	04-21	03-31	04-20	08-20	05-14	04-17	04-29	04-13	04-14	04-05	05-07	04-20	08-26	03-23	04-18	04-22	08-25	--	03-26	03-23	04-20	04-23	--	05-26	03-23	04-15	04-01	04-17	03-25	04-28	04-29	03-24	04-22	03-27	05-09	04-16	04-26	03-21	04-15	04-18	03-27	08-19	04-14	03-29	04-15	04-15	04-14	03-30	07-29	04-20	04-24	04-10	03-30	07-30	04-06	04-05	04-07	07-26	05-11	03-21	04-07	04-15	05-12	04-14	04-17	04-02	04-13	04-17	03-25	04-11	04-17	04-06	08-25	03-27	05-13	04-27	03-25	04-22	03-25	08-20	03-24	03-31	03-24	04-03	04-13	04-18	08-02	05-10	04-07	04-18	04-20	04-21	04-19	04-14	03-17	07-15	05-03	08-18	04-08	03-30	04-14	04-14	04-17	04-15	08-26	04-15	03-29	04-20	04-13	04-21
Peak daily increment	5	8	8	18	12	22	13	6	19	5	27	27	16	24	24	8	17	30			19	21	6	67	8	20	8		11	10	51	7	13	3	13	7	21	6	9	8	23	14	6	19	7	15	25	6	19	14	16	12	12	40	31	9	14	7	12	23	8	7	17	4	68	22	5	11	49	9	15	19	5	19	9	35	15	11	25	34	4	7	15	8	5	11	40	12	18	16	10	6	8	26	14	8	8	6	6	11	13	4	12	36	7	14	7	10	14	25	13	15	6	33	6	21	10	12	30	6	14	3	9	28	43	13	7	24	9	11	23	29		20	16	16	16	18	23	2	16	28	21	5	32		75	6	37	8	11	10	23	24	4	5		17	24	3	4	24	10	10	13	20	18	12	8	6	33	17	43	4	12	5	10	6	18	15	19	20	10	5	68	37	7	24	13	5	36	21	14	33	18	12	22	22	29	14	10	17	4	15	11	22	7	12	4	30	9	6	7	14	2	3	33	30	21	7	16		8	69	21	18		15	4	7	6	17	3	25	7	15	18	5	18	10	8	8	22	17	15	7	8	12	31	18	7	7	12	17	27	14	9	3	9	28	9	16	27	7	7	7	11	14	10	6	21	7	11	6	9	6	15	22	10	15	9	28	31	5	32	28	9	12	12	8	7	8	11	2	14	4	11	14	19	4	37	10	7	45	8	15	28	12	11	10	6	16	10	30
Days since peak	144	138	130	130	150	145	142	149	162	45	136	162	141	163	115	157	141	160			54	149	141	11	157	140	155		126	21	164	164	160	51	133	12	118	172	13	162	151	48	151	162	151	151	138	161	142	120	143	156	160	124	138	123	126	121	152	142	148	126	140	157	139	157	148	139	163	156	137	159	165	167	141	143	140	116	149	163	136	134	142	144	147	138	138	143	143	137	143	136	166	160	165	165	142	160	141	131	118	163	96	160	143	140	144	160	118	162	154	160	161	144	139	164	165	139	164	136	144	11	141	164	67	167	146	164	146	140	166	126		142	138	175	169	126	149	58	152	136	159	42	164		84	146	165	165	12	36	156	132	168	160		105	161	167	125	165	163	136	137	163	138	124	160	165	162	130	165	139	141	164	133	165	141	125	137	161	151	149	35	149	139	12	137	117	38	159	41	130	145	145	125	151	160	137	26	154	105	171	138	159	139	17	115	142	130	146	145	154	122	139	11	167	141	137	12		164	167	139	136		103	167	144	158	142	165	131	130	166	137	163	120	143	133	169	144	141	163	18	145	161	144	144	145	160	39	139	135	149	160	38	153	154	152	42	118	169	152	144	117	145	142	157	146	142	165	148	142	153	12	163	116	132	165	137	165	17	166	159	166	156	146	141	35	119	152	141	139	138	140	145	173	53	126	19	151	160	145	145	142	144	11	144	161	139	146	138
Last total	210	418	480	375	630	1375	860	292	935	1991	2213	625	897	985	674	445	1477	1203	7466	626	1959	1134	386	2823	509	966	436	6745	538	518	2002	330	924	1586	439	1704	602	338	519	696	1724	1288	415	872	358	746	817	368	1389	950	823	483	768	2488	2217	545	314	357	754	769	375	452	1013	233	3696	1802	288	493	2068	637	644	764	317	1464	282	2113	702	743	1507	1893	213	271	552	477	279	471	1748	729	927	482	470	225	536	1428	570	374	461	285	332	517	824	177	504	1485	430	590	247	648	420	1108	631	779	346	973	453	984	410	834	1522	297	704	174	391	1195	940	601	500	1369	612	562	1371	964	540	742	440	715	746	724	874	1640	858	3226	1153	1660	938	5078	5942	408	1396	448	358	3147	1788	702	154	261	4711	403	1150	235	171	1058	234	359	674	1175	1008	365	538	474	1854	891	1595	140	650	254	420	264	786	231	1009	1055	372	366	1867	1750	361	1459	958	577	3101	1059	977	1675	777	573	1562	894	1394	798	449	853	246	688	292	2426	318	398	209	2249	451	375	457	634	118	151	2028	2350	613	421	1797	385	425	4909	1557	797	1145	474	257	412	458	875	122	724	471	647	365	309	670	605	371	442	1137	1037	780	1702	409	619	1361	642	424	361	2075	1086	1777	574	298	2069	481	1112	591	1302	2122	393	361	235	714	678	557	286	940	420	642	392	316	62	1099	1789	537	332	556	2207	1759	1225	1490	1531	492	682	540	520	444	481	546	78	838	187	585	560	1015	2442	1482	523	534	2416	429	659	1738	448	466	494	548	690	443	1000
Last daily increment	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	6	8	8	3	0	0	1	8	5	2	95	3	10	5	0	24	0	10	3	58	0	1	4	3	6	8	0	3	4	3	2	9	12	12	5	2	3	2	1	0	0	5	2	1	2	7	3	1	1	2	3	1	0	1	2	2	21	15	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	2	8	8	9	5	0	1	4	0	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	4	9	1	3	1	1	3	0	1	0	2	12	2	1	0	1	4	2	3	2	0	1	1	9	0	6	5	0	5	0	0	15	5	3	3	12	4	1	6	0	1	1	0	6	6	4	0	4	3	15	9	6	0	57	18	5	3	4	0	23	2	4	0	4	31	2	0	0	0	4	0	0	4	6	1	0	4	4	18	4	9	0	0	1	5	3	4	0	4	9	3	0	6	9	0	16	1	5	14	5	6	3	3	4	10	8	11	8	0	4	0	6	1	10	1	2	1	5	3	1	3	0	0	1	23	23	3	4	2	5	1	16	1	4	16	0	3	4	0	2	0	0	3	7	0	2	2	7	0	3	6	1	2	4	6	3	18	3	0	0	11	3	5	2	1	33	0	2	15	1	23	3	3	2	0	0	3	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	13	7	4	2	2	7	12	3	9	23	3	4	5	5	0	3	1	1	2	0	2	2	3	17	4	3	4	14	0	0	25	2	2	1	3	4	0	1
Last week	7	9	12	19	24	4	13	7	51	84	72	15	23	11	14	28	18	13	827	50	91	29	11	350	2	59	20	359	5	7	55	12	33	69	5	49	24	13	40	51	112	79	14	30	11	10	12	5	22	31	15	12	12	79	56	10	17	17	22	7	2	32	22	6	149	88	13	6	58	14	13	4	10	34	5	30	37	11	65	59	1	16	13	10	10	16	32	31	14	11	8	6	27	60	13	14	14	11	10	1	10	5	11	102	15	11	3	6	13	30	16	34	5	44	18	55	3	47	57	7	42	10	3	74	20	48	20	54	13	11	68	4	46	8	7	48	46	27	5	21	18	161	63	68	18	449	186	8	40	13	34	234	45	15	3	20	333	25	17	12	12	23	5	5	17	52	29	7	36	16	132	27	91	8	14	11	22	24	18	2	48	63	10	13	62	57	14	88	14	29	123	33	44	46	28	17	99	25	81	30	8	20	9	29	4	127	5	23	8	55	27	12	24	8	2	6	171	118	35	7	79	42	12	167	25	27	125	11	10	11	16	29	7	3	17	12	6	10	17	35	12	26	67	15	17	57	29	25	72	25	17	14	72	35	62	16	7	189	10	20	23	30	152	12	10	7	21	3	27	4	4	17	17	6	12	5	67	67	20	20	17	75	61	35	57	92	17	25	19	16	12	19	9	2	36	11	13	23	47	102	75	6	28	157	17	12	94	9	33	25	16	17	7	24
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	04-16	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	03-25	--	04-14	--	--	--	--	--	03-31	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-01	--	--	--	--	03-31	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment										47											28							65						25		38																																																																																																								43				39		75						54																																				25																																	35																									44							31					48																			24							28																53
Low between peaks										1											5													1		1																																																																																																								1				0								3																																				2																																	2																									1							2					0																			1							1																2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-07 to 2020-09-13

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Daventry	Derby	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Folkestone and Hythe	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Rochdale	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Test Valley	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-06	210	418	480	375	630	860	292	935	1991	2213	625	897	985	674	445	1477	1203	7466	626	1959	1134	386	2823	966	436	6745	518	2002	330	924	1586	1704	602	338	519	696	1724	1288	415	872	358	746	817	1389	950	823	483	768	2488	2217	545	314	357	754	769	452	1013	233	3696	1802	288	493	2068	637	644	317	1464	2113	702	743	1507	1893	271	552	477	279	471	1748	729	927	482	470	225	536	1428	570	374	461	285	332	824	504	1485	430	590	648	420	1108	631	779	973	453	984	834	1522	297	704	174	1195	940	601	500	1369	612	562	1371	540	742	440	715	746	724	1640	858	3226	1153	1660	938	5078	5942	408	1396	448	358	3147	1788	702	261	4711	403	1150	235	171	1058	674	1175	1008	365	538	474	1854	891	1595	140	650	254	420	264	786	1009	1055	372	366	1867	1750	361	1459	958	577	3101	1059	977	1675	777	573	1562	894	1394	798	449	853	246	688	2426	398	209	2249	451	375	457	634	151	2028	2350	613	421	1797	385	425	4909	1557	797	1145	474	257	412	458	875	122	471	647	365	309	670	605	371	442	1137	1037	780	1702	409	619	1361	642	424	361	2075	1086	1777	574	298	2069	481	1112	591	1302	2122	393	361	235	714	557	420	642	392	316	1099	1789	537	332	556	2207	1759	1225	1490	1531	492	682	540	520	444	481	546	838	187	585	560	1015	2442	1482	523	534	2416	429	659	1738	448	466	494	548	690	443	1000
2020-09-07	211	419	481	378	631	862	293	941	1991	2219	627	899	986	675	448	1482	1206	7578	634	1960	1137	387	2836	975	438	6784	518	2008	332	928	1594	1709	604	340	524	701	1739	1297	417	878	359	747	819	1392	953	825	485	770	2501	2219	546	316	359	756	770	456	1018	234	3720	1812	289	494	2074	640	644	318	1470	2116	707	748	1517	1899	273	554	479	282	473	1751	732	928	483	471	225	540	1436	572	376	462	286	333	824	505	1500	432	591	650	424	1112	633	783	975	454	993	841	1529	298	708	176	1208	944	609	502	1375	613	563	1378	547	743	441	722	752	728	1642	861	3245	1160	1668	939	5150	5962	411	1398	449	360	3171	1793	703	263	4711	406	1152	236	172	1061	676	1182	1011	366	543	476	1866	895	1608	141	651	255	422	266	788	1016	1065	373	367	1873	1756	364	1470	959	580	3120	1063	984	1681	781	575	1575	897	1406	799	450	855	247	692	2441	401	210	2254	455	376	460	635	151	2034	2377	618	422	1807	390	427	4932	1561	800	1167	475	259	413	459	879	123	473	648	366	310	672	610	372	446	1147	1039	782	1709	412	622	1375	647	425	362	2091	1091	1785	576	299	2100	482	1115	601	1306	2147	395	362	236	716	563	422	644	393	317	1118	1799	542	335	558	2215	1765	1230	1496	1546	494	685	543	522	445	484	548	841	188	587	563	1021	2458	1491	524	538	2439	431	661	1758	449	469	497	551	691	444	1003
2020-09-08	211	420	482	381	632	863	293	946	2008	2223	629	902	988	677	452	1484	1209	7688	642	1978	1139	388	2875	984	440	6841	519	2014	333	932	1602	1714	606	341	529	707	1753	1306	419	884	360	748	820	1395	955	827	486	771	2511	2221	546	318	361	758	772	460	1022	234	3742	1822	290	495	2080	644	644	319	1476	2119	711	753	1527	1907	274	555	481	284	475	1754	736	930	484	471	226	543	1443	575	378	463	287	334	824	506	1515	434	591	652	427	1115	635	788	986	455	1001	848	1536	298	713	177	1221	948	617	504	1381	614	565	1385	553	744	441	729	757	732	1644	864	3264	1168	1676	940	5220	5981	413	1401	451	363	3193	1797	704	265	4734	409	1154	237	173	1064	678	1188	1015	368	548	477	1889	899	1620	141	651	256	424	269	790	1022	1074	374	368	1879	1762	367	1481	961	582	3138	1067	991	1687	785	577	1588	900	1418	800	450	858	249	696	2456	403	211	2259	458	377	462	636	152	2041	2401	623	422	1817	395	428	4955	1564	803	1186	476	260	415	459	883	124	474	649	368	311	674	615	374	449	1157	1041	785	1715	414	624	1387	651	427	363	2105	1096	1792	577	300	2128	483	1117	611	1306	2170	397	363	237	717	568	424	645	393	318	1129	1809	546	337	560	2223	1771	1235	1509	1561	495	687	545	523	447	487	550	844	188	588	567	1026	2473	1499	525	542	2462	432	663	1777	450	472	500	555	693	445	1005
2020-09-09	212	421	483	383	633	865	294	952	2021	2229	631	904	989	678	455	1486	1212	7801	650	1992	1141	389	2922	993	441	6903	519	2020	335	936	1610	1719	608	342	535	712	1767	1315	421	888	361	749	822	1398	958	829	488	773	2524	2224	547	321	363	760	773	464	1027	235	3764	1832	291	496	2086	647	645	320	1482	2121	716	757	1536	1916	275	557	483	287	476	1757	739	931	485	472	226	546	1450	577	380	465	289	336	826	507	1530	435	592	654	430	1119	637	792	991	456	1010	855	1543	299	717	179	1233	952	624	506	1387	616	566	1392	559	745	442	736	762	736	1646	867	3283	1176	1684	941	5290	6001	415	1403	452	365	3216	1801	705	267	4764	412	1155	238	174	1066	680	1194	1018	369	553	479	1914	902	1632	142	652	257	426	271	792	1028	1084	374	369	1885	1768	370	1492	962	585	3156	1071	998	1693	789	579	1601	903	1431	802	451	860	250	699	2471	406	212	2264	462	378	465	637	152	2048	2426	627	423	1826	400	430	4976	1568	806	1205	478	261	416	460	887	125	475	649	369	312	676	619	375	453	1167	1044	787	1722	417	627	1400	655	429	363	2119	1101	1800	579	301	2157	484	1120	620	1309	2194	399	364	237	719	574	425	647	394	320	1141	1819	550	340	563	2232	1777	1239	1517	1575	497	690	548	525	448	490	551	847	189	589	570	1032	2487	1508	526	546	2486	433	665	1795	451	475	503	558	694	446	1008
2020-09-10	213	422	483	386	633	867	295	957	2034	2233	634	906	990	680	458	1491	1216	7912	659	2002	1143	390	2964	1001	443	6970	519	2026	336	940	1618	1724	609	344	540	716	1781	1323	423	893	362	750	823	1401	960	831	489	774	2535	2226	548	323	365	762	774	467	1031	235	3785	1842	291	496	2092	650	645	321	1488	2123	720	761	1546	1925	277	559	485	289	478	1760	742	932	486	473	227	550	1456	580	383	466	290	337	827	508	1544	437	592	656	433	1122	639	796	998	457	1018	862	1550	300	721	180	1245	955	632	508	1393	617	567	1398	566	746	442	743	767	740	1647	869	3302	1185	1692	943	5358	6019	417	1405	454	368	3238	1806	706	269	4790	414	1157	238	176	1069	681	1200	1021	370	558	481	1936	906	1644	143	653	258	428	273	793	1035	1093	375	371	1891	1774	373	1502	963	587	3174	1075	1005	1698	792	581	1614	906	1443	803	452	862	251	703	2485	408	213	2269	465	379	467	638	153	2056	2450	631	424	1836	405	431	4998	1571	808	1223	479	263	417	461	891	125	477	650	370	313	677	624	376	456	1176	1046	789	1728	419	629	1412	659	430	364	2133	1106	1807	580	301	2184	485	1122	628	1316	2218	401	365	238	721	579	427	649	395	321	1153	1828	555	342	565	2240	1783	1244	1527	1588	498	693	551	526	450	492	553	850	189	591	573	1037	2502	1517	528	550	2509	435	667	1813	452	478	506	561	695	447	1011
2020-09-11	213	424	484	388	634	868	296	962	2047	2238	636	908	991	682	461	1494	1219	8025	667	2018	1146	391	3009	1010	444	7030	520	2032	337	944	1625	1729	611	345	545	721	1795	1332	426	900	363	751	825	1404	962	833	491	775	2545	2228	548	325	366	764	775	471	1036	236	3806	1851	292	497	2098	654	646	322	1494	2126	724	766	1555	1932	278	560	487	292	480	1763	745	933	487	473	228	553	1463	582	385	467	291	338	828	509	1559	439	593	658	436	1126	641	800	1003	458	1026	869	1556	301	726	182	1257	959	641	510	1399	618	568	1404	572	747	443	750	773	744	1649	872	3321	1191	1699	944	5426	6038	419	1407	455	370	3260	1810	707	271	4815	417	1159	239	177	1071	683	1206	1025	371	563	482	1955	909	1656	144	653	259	429	275	795	1040	1102	376	372	1897	1779	375	1513	965	589	3192	1079	1013	1704	796	583	1626	908	1455	805	452	864	253	707	2499	411	214	2274	468	380	470	639	153	2063	2473	636	425	1847	410	433	5019	1575	811	1242	480	264	419	462	895	126	478	651	371	315	679	628	377	460	1186	1048	792	1735	422	632	1424	663	432	365	2146	1111	1815	581	302	2210	486	1125	637	1318	2241	403	366	239	723	584	429	650	395	322	1162	1838	559	345	567	2248	1788	1249	1537	1601	499	695	553	528	451	495	555	853	190	592	576	1043	2516	1526	529	553	2532	436	669	1830	453	481	509	564	697	448	1013
2020-09-12	214	425	485	390	635	870	296	967	2056	2243	638	911	992	683	465	1497	1222	8140	675	2026	1148	393	3044	1019	446	7087	520	2038	339	947	1633	1734	613	347	550	726	1809	1340	428	902	363	752	827	1407	965	835	492	777	2553	2230	549	327	368	766	776	475	1040	236	3827	1861	293	498	2104	657	646	323	1500	2127	728	770	1565	1943	280	562	489	294	482	1766	748	935	488	474	228	556	1470	585	387	468	292	339	829	509	1574	440	593	659	439	1129	643	804	1010	459	1035	876	1563	301	730	183	1269	962	649	512	1405	619	570	1411	578	747	443	757	778	748	1651	875	3339	1200	1707	945	5494	6057	421	1409	456	373	3282	1814	708	274	4843	420	1161	240	178	1074	685	1212	1028	372	568	484	1982	913	1668	144	654	260	431	277	797	1045	1112	377	373	1904	1785	378	1523	966	591	3210	1083	1020	1710	799	585	1639	911	1468	806	453	867	254	711	2514	414	215	2279	472	382	472	640	154	2071	2497	640	425	1857	415	435	5041	1578	814	1260	481	265	420	463	899	127	479	652	372	316	681	633	378	463	1196	1050	794	1741	424	634	1437	666	433	365	2160	1116	1822	583	303	2237	487	1127	646	1318	2264	405	367	239	724	590	431	652	396	323	1170	1847	563	347	569	2255	1794	1254	1543	1615	501	698	556	529	453	498	556	856	190	594	579	1049	2530	1535	530	557	2555	437	670	1848	454	484	512	567	698	449	1016
2020-09-13	215	426	485	393	636	872	297	973	2062	2248	640	913	993	685	468	1500	1225	8257	683	2035	1150	394	3072	1027	448	7136	520	2044	340	951	1641	1739	615	348	555	731	1823	1349	430	904	364	753	828	1410	967	837	494	778	2561	2232	550	329	370	767	778	479	1045	237	3848	1870	294	499	2110	660	647	324	1506	2130	732	774	1575	1949	281	564	491	297	484	1769	752	936	489	475	229	560	1476	587	389	469	293	340	830	510	1589	442	594	661	442	1133	645	808	1012	459	1043	883	1570	302	734	184	1281	965	657	514	1411	621	571	1417	585	748	444	764	783	751	1652	877	3358	1208	1714	946	5563	6076	423	1412	458	375	3304	1819	709	276	4871	423	1162	241	179	1077	686	1218	1031	373	573	485	1995	916	1679	145	655	261	433	280	799	1050	1121	377	374	1910	1791	381	1534	968	593	3228	1087	1027	1716	803	587	1652	914	1480	807	454	869	255	714	2529	416	216	2284	475	383	474	641	154	2078	2520	645	426	1867	420	436	5062	1582	816	1279	482	267	421	464	903	128	481	652	374	317	682	638	380	466	1206	1052	796	1748	427	637	1449	670	435	366	2174	1121	1830	584	304	2264	488	1130	655	1318	2288	407	368	240	726	595	432	653	397	324	1183	1857	567	350	571	2263	1800	1258	1550	1628	502	700	558	530	454	500	558	859	191	595	582	1054	2544	1544	531	561	2578	438	672	1866	455	487	515	571	699	450	1018

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-07 to 2020-09-13

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Daventry	Derby	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Folkestone and Hythe	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Rochdale	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Test Valley	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-06	210	418	480	375	630	860	292	935	1991	2213	625	897	985	674	445	1477	1203	7466	626	1959	1134	386	2823	966	436	6745	518	2002	330	924	1586	1704	602	338	519	696	1724	1288	415	872	358	746	817	1389	950	823	483	768	2488	2217	545	314	357	754	769	452	1013	233	3696	1802	288	493	2068	637	644	317	1464	2113	702	743	1507	1893	271	552	477	279	471	1748	729	927	482	470	225	536	1428	570	374	461	285	332	824	504	1485	430	590	648	420	1108	631	779	973	453	984	834	1522	297	704	174	1195	940	601	500	1369	612	562	1371	540	742	440	715	746	724	1640	858	3226	1153	1660	938	5078	5942	408	1396	448	358	3147	1788	702	261	4711	403	1150	235	171	1058	674	1175	1008	365	538	474	1854	891	1595	140	650	254	420	264	786	1009	1055	372	366	1867	1750	361	1459	958	577	3101	1059	977	1675	777	573	1562	894	1394	798	449	853	246	688	2426	398	209	2249	451	375	457	634	151	2028	2350	613	421	1797	385	425	4909	1557	797	1145	474	257	412	458	875	122	471	647	365	309	670	605	371	442	1137	1037	780	1702	409	619	1361	642	424	361	2075	1086	1777	574	298	2069	481	1112	591	1302	2122	393	361	235	714	557	420	642	392	316	1099	1789	537	332	556	2207	1759	1225	1490	1531	492	682	540	520	444	481	546	838	187	585	560	1015	2442	1482	523	534	2416	429	659	1738	448	466	494	548	690	443	1000
2020-09-07	210	419	481	377	631	862	293	945	2004	2220	627	899	985	676	449	1482	1205	7585	632	1972	1137	387	2863	974	439	6807	519	2008	332	929	1594	1709	604	340	524	703	1738	1299	418	877	359	747	818	1391	954	826	484	770	2499	2224	546	316	359	756	770	456	1016	234	3719	1814	289	494	2074	640	646	318	1468	2116	708	746	1516	1904	272	554	478	280	473	1751	733	928	483	471	225	540	1438	572	376	462	286	333	825	505	1498	432	592	649	423	1111	633	783	979	455	992	841	1528	297	709	175	1207	944	608	502	1376	614	564	1380	545	743	440	721	753	728	1642	861	3246	1160	1669	939	5151	5966	410	1400	450	360	3182	1792	704	263	4754	406	1152	236	172	1061	677	1184	1011	366	542	476	1873	894	1608	141	651	255	423	266	789	1016	1064	373	367	1873	1757	362	1471	959	581	3118	1064	985	1680	781	576	1574	899	1404	803	450	856	247	692	2445	401	210	2256	455	377	459	635	151	2047	2370	617	422	1805	390	426	4934	1560	800	1160	475	258	414	459	879	123	473	650	366	311	673	610	372	445	1149	1039	782	1707	413	622	1372	646	425	362	2087	1091	1783	576	299	2102	483	1114	598	1304	2142	395	363	236	715	561	422	645	393	317	1112	1798	540	334	558	2216	1767	1230	1498	1549	494	685	543	524	445	485	548	842	188	587	564	1019	2455	1490	524	537	2443	431	661	1753	450	469	497	552	692	444	1003
2020-09-08	212	420	482	380	634	863	294	953	2020	2226	628	901	987	677	452	1484	1208	7696	638	1988	1140	389	2918	981	441	6863	522	2015	334	932	1604	1715	606	342	529	709	1752	1308	420	882	360	748	819	1394	956	827	486	770	2509	2231	547	317	361	759	771	460	1019	234	3737	1824	290	495	2082	643	648	319	1472	2119	711	748	1525	1912	274	556	480	281	476	1753	737	930	485	471	226	543	1445	575	377	463	288	334	826	506	1511	433	593	651	426	1115	634	787	988	458	1000	847	1535	298	713	177	1217	946	616	504	1383	615	565	1387	550	744	441	728	759	732	1644	864	3271	1166	1678	940	5217	5988	411	1406	452	363	3209	1797	705	266	4798	409	1154	237	173	1064	679	1190	1015	367	547	478	1889	898	1621	142	653	256	425	268	791	1023	1073	374	368	1879	1763	365	1481	961	584	3136	1067	992	1687	786	578	1587	902	1416	808	451	859	248	696	2462	406	211	2261	458	378	462	636	152	2071	2383	623	423	1817	395	428	4957	1564	803	1175	476	260	416	462	883	124	475	650	368	312	674	614	373	448	1160	1041	785	1714	416	625	1381	649	427	363	2095	1098	1791	578	300	2127	485	1117	601	1308	2162	398	364	236	717	565	424	647	393	318	1122	1806	542	336	560	2222	1773	1235	1509	1561	495	688	546	525	447	488	550	847	190	589	566	1026	2465	1499	525	541	2469	433	662	1762	451	473	500	556	693	445	1006
2020-09-09	212	421	483	382	636	865	295	959	2031	2232	629	904	988	679	456	1487	1211	7805	645	2000	1142	390	2974	989	442	6918	523	2023	335	935	1613	1721	609	343	533	715	1766	1318	423	887	361	749	821	1397	958	828	488	771	2521	2238	547	319	364	762	773	465	1022	235	3756	1834	290	496	2090	646	650	320	1477	2123	715	749	1534	1921	275	558	482	283	478	1756	740	931	486	472	226	547	1452	578	380	466	289	335	827	508	1524	435	595	653	429	1119	636	790	994	460	1007	855	1543	299	718	178	1227	948	624	507	1389	617	565	1394	555	745	442	735	767	736	1645	867	3295	1172	1688	942	5287	6013	412	1412	454	366	3239	1801	707	269	4845	412	1157	237	174	1066	681	1198	1018	368	553	479	1906	902	1634	142	655	257	427	270	792	1030	1080	375	370	1885	1769	368	1492	962	586	3154	1071	999	1692	791	580	1599	905	1427	812	453	861	250	699	2485	411	212	2269	461	379	465	637	153	2096	2395	626	424	1828	400	430	4979	1568	806	1190	477	261	417	464	887	125	476	651	369	313	676	618	375	451	1172	1044	788	1722	418	628	1389	652	429	364	2104	1103	1799	579	300	2152	487	1120	604	1312	2183	400	365	237	719	569	426	649	394	319	1132	1815	545	339	563	2233	1779	1240	1517	1573	497	690	548	525	448	491	552	852	191	590	569	1032	2478	1507	526	545	2494	434	664	1771	453	477	503	559	695	446	1009
2020-09-10	213	423	483	385	637	867	295	966	2044	2238	630	906	989	680	460	1492	1213	7916	651	2011	1144	391	3031	995	444	6974	525	2030	336	939	1622	1727	611	345	538	722	1779	1327	425	892	362	750	823	1400	960	829	490	772	2532	2245	548	321	366	764	774	469	1026	236	3779	1844	291	496	2098	650	651	321	1481	2126	719	750	1543	1930	277	560	484	284	480	1758	744	933	487	473	227	551	1459	581	382	467	290	336	829	509	1537	436	596	654	432	1123	637	793	1001	463	1015	861	1549	300	723	180	1237	950	632	509	1394	619	567	1401	560	745	442	742	774	740	1647	870	3317	1178	1699	943	5352	6033	413	1418	456	368	3268	1805	708	271	4890	414	1160	238	176	1069	684	1206	1022	370	559	481	1922	906	1650	143	656	258	429	272	794	1037	1087	376	371	1891	1775	371	1505	963	588	3173	1074	1008	1700	796	583	1612	908	1438	816	454	864	251	703	2501	417	212	2276	463	380	468	638	154	2118	2408	632	424	1839	404	432	5001	1572	809	1204	478	262	419	467	891	126	479	652	370	314	677	622	376	454	1184	1046	790	1727	421	631	1398	655	430	365	2112	1109	1805	581	302	2177	488	1123	607	1317	2203	402	366	237	721	573	428	651	395	320	1141	1824	547	341	565	2241	1785	1247	1527	1585	500	693	551	528	449	494	554	854	193	592	573	1038	2490	1516	527	549	2518	436	666	1781	454	480	506	563	696	447	1012
2020-09-11	214	424	484	387	639	869	296	970	2056	2244	631	908	990	682	463	1495	1215	8030	658	2023	1146	392	3088	1002	446	7023	527	2037	338	943	1630	1732	612	347	542	727	1793	1336	427	897	363	752	825	1403	962	831	491	773	2541	2252	549	322	368	767	775	474	1028	236	3798	1855	292	498	2105	653	653	322	1485	2129	723	752	1551	1937	278	561	485	286	482	1760	748	934	487	474	227	554	1466	584	383	468	292	338	830	509	1551	437	598	656	435	1126	638	796	1006	465	1023	867	1554	301	728	182	1248	952	640	512	1400	620	568	1408	564	746	443	749	781	743	1648	873	3333	1184	1707	944	5409	6051	414	1424	458	371	3293	1808	709	273	4926	417	1162	239	177	1072	686	1211	1025	371	564	482	1936	910	1662	143	658	259	430	274	796	1043	1095	376	372	1897	1781	373	1514	965	589	3191	1077	1016	1704	801	585	1624	911	1450	821	455	866	253	707	2520	422	213	2282	466	382	471	639	154	2142	2422	635	425	1850	408	434	5023	1575	811	1219	479	264	420	469	895	127	481	653	371	315	679	625	378	456	1195	1048	793	1732	423	634	1404	658	432	366	2120	1115	1811	583	303	2202	489	1126	609	1321	2222	404	367	237	723	576	430	652	396	321	1147	1833	550	343	567	2248	1790	1253	1537	1596	501	695	553	529	451	497	555	858	194	593	577	1045	2498	1524	528	552	2540	436	668	1791	455	484	509	567	698	448	1015
2020-09-12	214	425	485	389	642	871	297	974	2063	2249	632	911	991	683	466	1499	1218	8143	664	2031	1149	393	3141	1009	448	7064	529	2044	339	946	1638	1736	613	348	547	731	1806	1343	430	901	363	752	826	1406	963	832	493	773	2549	2258	550	324	370	768	777	478	1031	237	3817	1865	292	498	2112	656	655	322	1489	2131	727	753	1560	1944	280	563	487	287	484	1762	751	936	489	475	228	558	1474	587	384	469	293	339	831	510	1564	438	599	658	437	1130	639	799	1012	468	1029	871	1559	301	733	184	1257	954	648	514	1406	622	569	1415	569	746	443	756	786	747	1648	876	3350	1190	1715	945	5462	6067	414	1430	460	374	3319	1812	710	274	4967	420	1164	240	178	1075	688	1218	1029	372	568	483	1952	914	1674	144	659	260	432	276	798	1050	1103	377	373	1903	1787	376	1524	966	591	3210	1081	1022	1710	806	587	1637	913	1461	825	457	868	254	710	2530	428	214	2287	469	383	474	640	154	2161	2434	639	426	1862	413	435	5046	1579	814	1234	480	265	421	471	899	128	482	653	373	317	681	628	379	458	1207	1051	796	1737	426	637	1410	660	433	367	2128	1121	1816	584	304	2226	490	1128	612	1325	2242	406	368	238	725	580	432	654	396	322	1154	1841	552	344	569	2253	1796	1257	1546	1608	502	698	556	530	452	500	557	861	196	594	579	1050	2507	1533	529	556	2559	437	670	1795	456	487	511	571	699	449	1018
2020-09-13	215	427	485	391	643	873	298	978	2067	2255	633	913	992	685	468	1502	1220	8256	671	2038	1151	394	3191	1016	449	7103	531	2051	340	950	1646	1741	614	350	552	736	1820	1350	432	903	364	754	827	1408	965	833	495	774	2559	2264	551	325	373	769	778	483	1034	237	3831	1875	293	499	2120	659	657	323	1493	2134	730	754	1569	1950	281	564	489	289	485	1764	755	937	489	475	228	562	1480	590	386	470	294	340	832	511	1578	439	601	659	440	1133	640	802	1017	470	1037	875	1564	302	738	185	1265	955	657	516	1412	624	570	1422	574	747	444	763	792	751	1649	879	3367	1196	1721	946	5513	6078	415	1436	462	377	3347	1815	710	275	5004	423	1167	241	180	1078	690	1225	1033	373	571	484	1964	918	1685	145	661	260	434	278	800	1058	1109	378	374	1909	1793	379	1534	967	593	3228	1084	1030	1715	811	589	1650	916	1472	830	458	871	255	713	2540	434	215	2290	472	384	477	641	155	2180	2442	641	427	1873	418	437	5068	1583	817	1250	481	266	423	472	903	129	483	654	375	318	682	631	380	460	1219	1053	798	1741	428	639	1417	663	435	368	2134	1127	1821	586	304	2251	491	1131	615	1329	2261	408	370	239	726	584	433	655	397	323	1162	1849	554	346	570	2256	1802	1262	1553	1621	503	700	558	532	454	503	559	863	197	595	581	1056	2516	1541	530	559	2580	438	672	1800	457	491	513	576	700	450	1021

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

2020-10-13

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-06 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-06