COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-10-05

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	04-15	--	--	04-29	--	04-16	09-24	--	09-22	--	--	03-28	--	03-27	--	--	--	08-23	09-24	--	--	--	--	--	04-02	--	04-05	--	05-03	04-20	03-26	--	--	--	04-26	08-26	--	09-07	--	--	--	--	--	09-23	--	04-08	04-21	--	04-17	--	--	04-03	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	04-17	04-10	05-03	09-23	--	--	--	--	04-20	03-27	--	--	03-30	09-24	09-24	--	--	--	05-13	--	--	--	--	04-17	--	--	09-24	--	04-16	04-16	04-22	04-16	04-23	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	04-18	04-28	05-11	--	--	--	--	04-18	04-15	03-30	09-23	03-28	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	04-18	03-30	07-01	--	09-24	--	--	04-19	--	05-03	--	04-17	04-21	--	--	05-03	04-10	--	--	--	--	08-27	--	--	06-14	09-24	03-25	--	--	--	04-03	04-27	03-22	--	09-24	05-24	09-24	--	--	03-25	03-27	04-23	04-22	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-04	04-22	--	04-08	--	08-02	09-23	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	04-29	04-14	--	--	04-07	--	--	04-10	04-05	--	--	09-22	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-05	--	09-24	--	--	04-18	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	09-23	--	09-20	--	--	--	--	03-25	04-28	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-18	03-27	09-22	--	--	--	09-24	--	03-30	--	--	08-09	--	03-30	--	09-24	04-05	--	07-26	--	--	04-07	--	--	--	09-24	--	04-13	--	--	--	09-21	04-06	09-24	--	--	04-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-26	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	04-19	04-14	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	04-14	--	--	04-16	--	--	--	--	--
Peak daily increment	5			18		22	14		23			27		24				5	278						8		8		11	9	52				12	8		9						23		15	25		19			12					14			23	7	7	31					11	49			18	10	33				11					15			11		12	18	15	10	6			14				6	11	13					14	7	10	15	25							10						9	28	43		19			11		29		20	16			18	23					13			75	7	37				23	24	4		506	17	24			24	10	10	13			12												15	19		10		68	95			13					33	18			22			9	17			13		7							14		15			21	7						21		17					3	25			18							17	15	27				32		7			9		9		12	28		16			7				14		21				21	6	46			15								12			7						11	14			37					15			10
Days since peak	173			159		172	11		13			191		192				43	11						186		183		155	168	193				162	40		28						12		180	167		171			185					155			171	178	155	12					168	192			189	11	11				145					171			11		172	172	166	172	165			194				170	160	147					170	173	189	12	191							194						170	189	96		11			169		155		171	167			155	178					39			113	11	194				185	161	197		11	134	11			194	192	165	166			153												154	166		180		64	12			166					159	174			181			178	183			13		168							183		11			170	166						12		15					194	160			166							170	192	13				11		189			57		189		11	183		71			181				11		175				14	182	11			161								193			64						169	174			155					174			172
Last total	273	573	765	493	938	1445	1024	341	1387	2727	2979	952	1170	1089	859	708	1803	1526	13713	933	3195	1714	566	5793	567	1572	571	10869	654	614	2636	457	1299	2213	523	2104	832	504	940	1749	3376	2218	530	1230	533	886	960	503	1689	1439	991	611	930	3588	3311	730	401	483	1225	918	468	574	1580	292	6112	2872	542	587	2611	830	1041	877	430	1982	373	3058	910	789	2216	2662	259	374	656	695	383	604	2504	922	1086	580	544	275	782	2039	804	474	707	943	395	598	876	252	843	2816	725	733	287	753	613	1492	812	1990	579	1311	651	1519	511	1278	2031	387	1247	251	489	1706	1066	840	780	1979	822	719	1969	1144	1271	815	491	1132	1000	879	979	2089	1137	5488	3187	2231	1438	11374	7636	468	1843	635	590	9746	2258	815	195	378	11314	607	1340	314	267	1299	274	413	794	1911	1301	455	677	886	5186	1198	2368	196	914	489	570	428	1167	264	1242	2253	475	509	2229	3337	500	4429	1209	859	5137	1441	1764	1979	1059	830	2872	1058	2310	1241	571	982	540	1081	436	4317	376	925	265	3436	746	520	869	755	184	247	4151	3702	865	493	4124	641	553	8901	2022	1132	1981	595	367	581	642	1220	169	796	705	879	467	398	797	1123	456	698	2402	1270	992	2232	576	917	2991	973	566	459	3596	2011	2277	777	394	4240	598	1309	712	1464	3760	514	469	327	977	793	675	360	1009	577	813	498	433	89	1822	3195	670	484	690	3470	2719	1760	2059	3132	708	846	715	619	553	637	692	103	1541	379	672	713	1400	4619	1846	635	818	4867	581	829	2521	626	581	667	752	1088	644	1791
Last daily increment	2	7	18	4	14	6	13	2	15	45	63	35	23	1	9	21	13	23	295	11	84	39	14	134	7	56	7	202	12	6	32	4	26	41	3	18	20	11	36	72	123	68	6	11	16	8	12	10	14	23	12	2	8	80	73	16	5	8	42	13	6	3	18	4	200	56	13	5	34	12	31	8	6	26	13	65	23	6	37	45	5	16	9	14	2	8	60	16	12	7	11	3	23	28	11	2	15	76	6	0	5	9	24	70	33	8	0	5	7	27	11	73	12	16	25	26	5	30	31	9	35	2	2	32	5	13	11	28	14	8	27	9	36	4	4	22	17	7	7	37	16	142	124	36	56	427	64	4	25	8	12	411	9	11	7	9	381	15	8	9	7	20	8	1	11	44	15	11	7	87	230	30	40	6	17	24	12	6	40	4	6	79	7	14	21	91	15	413	10	17	149	26	51	12	18	13	89	11	37	31	2	11	32	26	9	149	3	27	6	87	15	8	32	4	5	5	156	67	11	3	160	16	14	380	20	12	60	7	7	14	12	20	1	6	26	26	6	9	12	43	7	18	55	13	13	26	4	14	104	25	19	5	135	96	32	24	3	104	8	14	4	5	117	12	5	3	17	14	12	6	5	9	13	8	14	0	34	123	10	5	8	98	64	31	31	97	15	12	7	7	3	7	16	0	66	7	9	6	19	178	24	13	17	144	11	6	40	12	4	7	16	30	19	60
Last week	14	61	97	30	106	33	74	30	114	311	338	125	101	45	81	122	115	121	1602	90	360	224	64	686	21	280	50	1318	51	36	229	55	171	276	33	162	108	47	230	324	500	350	48	126	72	52	54	41	95	175	62	40	72	467	456	87	27	55	210	62	31	33	129	31	1000	349	80	35	230	72	157	32	51	183	47	417	95	27	221	288	24	54	49	106	33	61	323	67	65	32	43	13	150	194	76	47	108	486	17	38	19	26	116	421	152	56	9	42	54	134	89	389	84	122	88	195	29	170	204	44	209	31	26	147	38	105	103	205	76	60	207	68	201	29	16	158	111	65	38	235	120	787	817	219	250	2701	429	32	172	73	84	2508	124	52	15	49	2499	69	73	44	34	97	19	26	52	317	109	54	47	204	1314	152	228	28	125	109	75	60	174	18	77	417	34	64	137	505	69	2150	74	87	688	151	243	106	84	99	395	64	288	209	39	51	131	193	49	706	15	163	21	529	86	51	235	53	35	50	764	336	78	26	908	71	72	2126	156	106	240	53	36	79	65	135	14	34	123	124	34	42	74	221	38	89	356	91	71	164	60	102	549	132	63	27	630	442	151	102	29	692	51	70	48	59	493	50	39	53	85	72	56	34	31	61	61	42	52	8	247	649	63	56	66	517	326	194	218	528	83	59	79	42	35	58	65	14	322	81	37	63	155	833	139	54	108	715	69	60	180	67	27	57	85	142	75	383
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-30	03-23	--	07-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	04-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-24	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																		29	95		20							65								38																		40											73																																																																															39		81																																																																																																				43									27								30
Low between peaks																		1	10																	1																																																																																																												0																																																																																																						1									1

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-06 to 2020-10-12

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-05	273	573	765	493	938	1445	1024	341	1387	2727	2979	952	1170	1089	859	708	1803	1526	13713	933	3195	1714	566	5793	567	1572	571	10869	654	614	2636	457	1299	2213	523	2104	832	504	940	1749	3376	2218	530	1230	533	886	960	503	1689	1439	991	611	930	3588	3311	730	401	483	1225	918	468	574	1580	292	6112	2872	542	587	2611	830	1041	877	430	1982	373	3058	910	789	2216	2662	259	374	656	695	383	604	2504	922	1086	580	544	275	782	2039	804	474	707	943	395	598	876	252	843	2816	725	733	287	753	613	1492	812	1990	579	1311	651	1519	511	1278	2031	387	1247	251	489	1706	1066	840	780	1979	822	719	1969	1144	1271	815	491	1132	1000	879	979	2089	1137	5488	3187	2231	1438	11374	7636	468	1843	635	590	9746	2258	815	195	378	11314	607	1340	314	267	1299	274	413	794	1911	1301	455	677	886	5186	1198	2368	196	914	489	570	428	1167	264	1242	2253	475	509	2229	3337	500	4429	1209	859	5137	1441	1764	1979	1059	830	2872	1058	2310	1241	571	982	540	1081	436	4317	376	925	265	3436	746	520	869	755	184	247	4151	3702	865	493	4124	641	553	8901	2022	1132	1981	595	367	581	642	1220	169	796	705	879	467	398	797	1123	456	698	2402	1270	992	2232	576	917	2991	973	566	459	3596	2011	2277	777	394	4240	598	1309	712	1464	3760	514	469	327	977	793	675	360	1009	577	813	498	433	89	1822	3195	670	484	690	3470	2719	1760	2059	3132	708	846	715	619	553	637	692	103	1541	379	672	713	1400	4619	1846	635	818	4867	581	829	2521	626	581	667	752	1088	644	1791
2020-10-06	274	587	770	497	945	1448	1034	344	1411	2796	3050	977	1197	1096	884	729	1820	1557	13970	944	3251	1750	576	5940	570	1623	576	11190	662	618	2667	462	1333	2316	528	2130	852	510	1000	1846	3500	2286	536	1255	547	892	968	508	1701	1461	1001	616	941	3733	3414	740	404	493	1259	929	472	578	1603	296	6326	2937	558	595	2649	842	1074	877	437	2013	382	3129	929	793	2290	2693	261	385	663	709	397	612	2603	930	1099	584	551	277	809	2070	816	479	707	1035	397	600	876	263	868	2886	757	750	288	758	623	1511	830	2080	592	1324	669	1559	515	1279	2092	387	1294	257	493	1727	1070	855	796	2016	847	725	2012	1153	1318	819	493	1166	1030	888	986	2142	1160	5636	3314	2259	1492	12100	7697	473	1871	638	596	10220	2270	824	197	380	11750	615	1343	321	274	1315	279	415	801	1969	1322	463	692	930	5420	1198	2434	204	947	518	577	436	1202	266	1251	2338	480	518	2259	3418	510	4776	1219	872	5266	1467	1866	1995	1070	845	2978	1067	2360	1270	572	993	576	1151	443	4493	378	951	269	3519	755	526	872	764	189	255	4353	3760	869	496	4392	652	564	9150	2053	1146	2028	604	374	598	658	1251	171	799	713	903	475	400	809	1179	465	724	2466	1283	1009	2239	576	938	3165	999	579	462	3745	2120	2311	784	398	4395	607	1318	718	1464	3873	520	473	327	1003	805	683	366	1014	584	825	507	443	90	1856	3320	678	487	699	3619	2773	1791	2109	3226	716	861	719	625	557	643	708	104	1629	399	678	717	1440	4769	1868	644	835	5049	594	838	2549	636	585	668	765	1118	658	1864
2020-10-07	277	600	773	502	968	1451	1044	347	1433	2868	3120	1000	1222	1103	908	749	1840	1586	14210	954	3312	1786	586	6084	572	1681	581	11500	670	621	2697	468	1367	2400	532	2156	876	517	1060	1942	3619	2354	543	1277	560	898	976	513	1713	1483	1012	622	951	3852	3513	749	408	503	1302	939	475	582	1625	301	6516	3000	573	602	2687	854	1107	885	443	2043	391	3201	950	797	2353	2736	264	395	671	723	407	620	2689	937	1112	587	557	279	835	2100	827	484	722	1313	399	602	879	268	881	2955	787	764	290	762	634	1530	849	2164	604	1337	685	1599	519	1297	2133	392	1340	262	497	1747	1074	870	812	2054	860	731	2052	1163	1359	823	495	1200	1059	897	993	2193	1182	5812	3443	2287	1545	12780	7756	478	1898	642	602	10710	2282	833	199	382	12220	622	1347	328	281	1330	283	416	808	2019	1343	471	704	978	5661	1210	2469	213	980	534	593	445	1235	268	1260	2423	484	526	2286	3498	523	5272	1229	885	5391	1492	1921	2010	1081	856	3069	1075	2408	1299	574	1003	612	1199	450	4661	380	978	275	3622	764	532	916	772	193	263	4530	3817	873	499	4621	662	576	9560	2083	1160	2071	612	381	619	673	1280	173	802	736	927	482	408	820	1221	474	750	2528	1302	1025	2247	579	964	3293	1024	591	464	3890	2228	2341	806	402	4542	616	1326	724	1474	3966	527	477	332	1020	817	691	371	1018	591	836	515	452	91	1890	3445	686	489	716	3743	2827	1823	2164	3321	727	875	724	631	561	648	720	104	1696	418	684	722	1476	4931	1889	653	850	5224	605	847	2577	646	589	674	779	1147	671	1936
2020-10-08	279	613	777	506	982	1454	1054	350	1454	2950	3190	1023	1249	1110	932	768	1855	1615	14450	964	3378	1822	601	6230	574	1739	585	11810	678	624	2727	473	1410	2509	537	2182	896	523	1110	2042	3741	2423	549	1295	574	904	983	517	1724	1504	1022	627	962	3958	3614	757	411	512	1340	949	479	586	1647	305	6727	3065	589	609	2725	865	1141	889	449	2072	400	3285	971	801	2408	2799	266	405	678	737	416	628	2768	944	1124	590	564	281	862	2130	839	490	727	1563	402	605	883	274	904	3024	817	778	291	766	644	1549	868	2248	616	1350	702	1639	523	1300	2180	397	1388	267	500	1766	1078	885	829	2091	878	737	2090	1172	1400	827	497	1234	1085	906	1000	2247	1204	6019	3576	2315	1601	13560	7815	483	1926	645	609	11220	2294	841	200	384	12610	629	1350	335	288	1345	286	418	814	2088	1364	478	718	1012	5912	1219	2520	221	1018	555	605	454	1269	270	1269	2511	488	535	2311	3578	537	5774	1238	897	5517	1516	1967	2025	1091	876	3163	1083	2459	1329	576	1012	650	1261	457	4853	382	1005	278	3732	774	537	949	780	198	271	4733	3874	877	501	4839	673	587	9960	2114	1174	2116	620	388	634	688	1310	175	804	761	951	489	414	831	1271	482	777	2591	1321	1040	2254	584	990	3417	1049	602	467	4040	2332	2372	823	405	4698	624	1333	730	1484	4059	534	481	333	1041	829	699	377	1023	599	847	524	461	92	1924	3603	695	493	732	3871	2882	1853	2212	3416	737	888	728	637	565	653	733	105	1774	439	690	727	1508	5095	1910	661	866	5381	616	855	2604	656	593	686	799	1176	685	2012
2020-10-09	280	626	780	510	998	1457	1064	354	1476	3020	3260	1046	1274	1116	956	784	1875	1643	14690	974	3438	1858	614	6377	576	1796	590	12130	686	627	2758	479	1440	2596	542	2207	914	529	1167	2146	3863	2492	555	1316	587	909	990	522	1735	1524	1032	632	972	4081	3714	766	414	521	1372	958	482	590	1668	309	6928	3131	605	616	2762	875	1176	893	456	2102	409	3358	989	804	2460	2843	269	414	685	752	425	636	2843	951	1136	593	570	282	890	2160	850	495	733	1812	404	607	885	278	923	3093	846	791	293	770	654	1567	886	2329	628	1363	718	1680	527	1314	2225	407	1436	272	504	1785	1082	900	845	2128	899	742	2127	1181	1442	832	499	1268	1116	914	1007	2300	1226	6199	3712	2342	1653	14270	7872	487	1953	647	616	11740	2306	849	202	385	12990	636	1354	341	294	1359	290	420	821	2176	1385	485	729	1030	6171	1235	2578	229	1044	582	618	463	1303	272	1277	2601	492	545	2335	3658	557	6296	1247	910	5643	1539	2019	2039	1102	893	3256	1091	2509	1359	578	1021	690	1314	463	5024	384	1032	279	3843	784	543	986	788	202	279	4902	3930	881	504	5072	683	598	10340	2144	1188	2157	628	396	648	703	1339	177	807	778	974	495	422	842	1311	491	803	2655	1335	1055	2262	584	1013	3537	1075	613	470	4191	2444	2401	843	409	4853	633	1340	736	1490	4161	540	485	337	1066	840	707	382	1027	607	858	533	469	92	1958	3725	703	496	741	3989	2937	1884	2259	3513	748	902	733	643	568	658	745	106	1846	460	696	731	1543	5241	1931	668	880	5528	627	863	2631	666	597	691	818	1205	698	2088
2020-10-10	282	638	782	514	1028	1460	1073	357	1497	3063	3332	1070	1300	1123	981	805	1889	1671	14940	984	3499	1896	623	6527	578	1856	594	12450	693	630	2788	485	1479	2678	546	2232	932	535	1220	2255	3988	2563	562	1332	601	914	997	527	1746	1544	1043	637	983	4188	3817	773	417	530	1404	967	486	594	1690	313	7111	3198	622	622	2800	885	1212	895	462	2131	418	3427	1002	808	2523	2891	271	423	692	767	434	644	2919	958	1149	596	577	284	919	2190	862	500	752	1812	406	610	886	283	930	3163	875	805	294	775	665	1585	904	2411	639	1377	735	1723	531	1342	2260	410	1486	278	507	1805	1085	915	862	2167	912	747	2164	1190	1485	836	501	1303	1141	922	1013	2354	1249	6380	3854	2370	1694	14990	7930	492	1981	650	622	12280	2317	858	204	386	13360	642	1357	348	301	1374	293	422	827	2225	1406	493	737	1066	6442	1248	2615	237	1081	603	630	472	1337	274	1286	2694	496	554	2358	3739	572	6897	1257	922	5771	1561	2059	2053	1112	906	3352	1099	2560	1389	580	1030	732	1354	470	5197	386	1059	283	3938	794	548	1021	796	207	287	5083	3986	885	507	5228	694	610	10740	2175	1202	2195	637	403	662	718	1370	179	809	805	998	502	426	853	1343	499	831	2720	1347	1070	2269	590	1035	3651	1100	624	472	4348	2576	2430	859	412	5014	641	1348	742	1496	4264	547	489	341	1091	852	715	387	1032	615	870	541	478	93	1992	3824	711	499	757	4101	2994	1915	2319	3612	762	915	737	649	572	663	752	106	1926	482	702	735	1578	5364	1952	675	894	5685	637	872	2657	676	601	691	831	1235	712	2167
2020-10-11	284	651	785	518	1040	1462	1083	360	1518	3115	3406	1093	1327	1129	1005	819	1904	1699	15180	994	3563	1934	636	6681	580	1914	599	12780	701	633	2818	490	1515	2777	551	2258	943	541	1275	2370	4118	2636	568	1349	614	920	1005	531	1757	1564	1053	642	993	4282	3922	781	419	538	1443	977	489	598	1712	318	7303	3266	639	629	2838	895	1249	901	468	2161	427	3493	1014	811	2566	2955	273	433	699	782	442	653	2990	964	1161	599	583	286	948	2220	873	505	763	1956	408	612	888	290	954	3233	906	818	296	779	675	1604	913	2495	651	1390	752	1766	535	1349	2287	415	1539	283	511	1824	1089	931	878	2206	926	752	2201	1199	1529	840	503	1340	1160	931	1020	2410	1272	6537	4002	2397	1729	15650	7988	497	2008	652	629	12860	2329	866	205	387	13650	649	1360	355	307	1389	296	424	833	2273	1427	500	746	1094	6726	1259	2662	245	1107	625	643	481	1373	275	1294	2791	500	565	2381	3820	585	7579	1266	935	5903	1583	2081	2068	1122	921	3451	1106	2613	1421	582	1039	776	1391	477	5350	388	1088	287	4035	804	553	1052	803	212	296	5236	4042	889	510	5411	705	621	11200	2206	1217	2236	645	411	673	734	1401	180	812	828	1023	509	432	864	1378	508	860	2787	1359	1085	2277	592	1058	3745	1126	634	475	4511	2683	2460	877	416	5181	650	1355	748	1508	4357	554	493	347	1108	864	722	392	1036	623	881	550	486	94	2026	3933	719	502	767	4209	3052	1947	2355	3715	774	929	741	655	575	668	759	107	2000	506	708	740	1606	5490	1973	682	909	5824	648	881	2684	686	605	691	846	1265	726	2250
2020-10-12	286	664	788	522	1049	1465	1093	363	1539	3161	3481	1116	1354	1135	1031	842	1918	1727	15430	1004	3639	1973	647	6838	582	1970	603	13120	709	636	2849	496	1515	2780	556	2283	963	547	1304	2490	4252	2711	575	1363	629	925	1012	536	1768	1584	1064	647	1004	4366	4031	789	422	547	1472	986	493	602	1734	322	7514	3336	656	636	2876	905	1287	907	475	2191	436	3540	1035	815	2582	3017	275	442	706	797	451	661	3051	971	1174	602	589	288	979	2250	885	511	777	2085	410	615	891	298	974	3304	937	831	297	783	685	1622	917	2582	663	1403	770	1810	539	1375	2303	425	1593	288	514	1843	1093	946	895	2246	939	758	2238	1209	1575	844	505	1377	1174	939	1027	2468	1295	6668	4156	2425	1767	16160	8046	502	2036	655	636	13460	2341	874	207	389	14060	655	1363	362	313	1404	299	426	840	2322	1449	507	752	1171	7024	1305	2705	253	1122	649	653	491	1409	277	1303	2891	504	575	2403	3903	598	8272	1276	948	6038	1605	2135	2082	1132	934	3554	1114	2666	1453	584	1048	823	1422	483	5493	390	1118	291	4123	814	559	1085	811	216	304	5357	4099	893	512	5605	716	633	11610	2237	1231	2293	653	419	686	751	1432	182	814	850	1048	516	440	875	1422	517	889	2856	1370	1100	2284	598	1068	3859	1152	645	477	4680	2794	2489	898	419	5354	658	1362	755	1512	4464	560	497	351	1123	876	730	397	1041	631	892	559	495	95	2061	4034	728	505	768	4308	3110	1978	2385	3820	786	942	746	660	579	673	768	108	2070	530	714	744	1627	5635	1994	689	923	5974	658	889	2711	697	608	699	861	1297	740	2335

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-06 to 2020-10-12

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-05	273	573	765	493	938	1445	1024	341	1387	2727	2979	952	1170	1089	859	708	1803	1526	13713	933	3195	1714	566	5793	567	1572	571	10869	654	614	2636	457	1299	2213	523	2104	832	504	940	1749	3376	2218	530	1230	533	886	960	503	1689	1439	991	611	930	3588	3311	730	401	483	1225	918	468	574	1580	292	6112	2872	542	587	2611	830	1041	877	430	1982	373	3058	910	789	2216	2662	259	374	656	695	383	604	2504	922	1086	580	544	275	782	2039	804	474	707	943	395	598	876	252	843	2816	725	733	287	753	613	1492	812	1990	579	1311	651	1519	511	1278	2031	387	1247	251	489	1706	1066	840	780	1979	822	719	1969	1144	1271	815	491	1132	1000	879	979	2089	1137	5488	3187	2231	1438	11374	7636	468	1843	635	590	9746	2258	815	195	378	11314	607	1340	314	267	1299	274	413	794	1911	1301	455	677	886	5186	1198	2368	196	914	489	570	428	1167	264	1242	2253	475	509	2229	3337	500	4429	1209	859	5137	1441	1764	1979	1059	830	2872	1058	2310	1241	571	982	540	1081	436	4317	376	925	265	3436	746	520	869	755	184	247	4151	3702	865	493	4124	641	553	8901	2022	1132	1981	595	367	581	642	1220	169	796	705	879	467	398	797	1123	456	698	2402	1270	992	2232	576	917	2991	973	566	459	3596	2011	2277	777	394	4240	598	1309	712	1464	3760	514	469	327	977	793	675	360	1009	577	813	498	433	89	1822	3195	670	484	690	3470	2719	1760	2059	3132	708	846	715	619	553	637	692	103	1541	379	672	713	1400	4619	1846	635	818	4867	581	829	2521	626	581	667	752	1088	644	1791
2020-10-06	275	582	779	498	954	1450	1035	344	1405	2774	3034	978	1190	1096	873	729	1820	1546	13970	945	3264	1751	575	5908	571	1622	578	11100	662	619	2668	464	1327	2262	527	2129	848	512	983	1814	3470	2280	535	1246	545	894	969	509	1703	1464	1003	617	940	3680	3389	743	405	493	1259	929	473	579	1605	296	6297	2928	557	593	2645	843	1068	883	435	2010	382	3119	926	793	2255	2717	263	384	664	715	388	615	2564	931	1098	585	551	277	804	2068	816	480	724	1030	398	603	879	260	866	2887	749	742	288	758	622	1513	823	2066	591	1328	664	1551	516	1311	2065	393	1286	255	492	1728	1071	851	795	2012	839	729	1999	1154	1307	819	494	1157	1018	887	987	2120	1154	5622	3319	2267	1478	11820	7705	472	1868	645	603	10180	2275	823	198	384	11780	617	1349	320	272	1314	278	415	802	1964	1318	463	685	930	5433	1219	2406	201	935	511	582	436	1196	266	1253	2334	480	517	2249	3426	510	4842	1219	871	5260	1466	1806	1995	1072	847	2952	1068	2351	1277	576	990	566	1117	444	4455	378	959	269	3508	758	528	902	761	190	255	4293	3756	879	496	4317	652	563	9220	2046	1149	2028	603	375	592	651	1243	171	801	725	899	476	404	808	1161	463	715	2459	1283	1004	2253	583	931	3103	994	576	463	3709	2098	2300	793	398	4354	607	1319	718	1471	3863	522	474	333	993	805	683	366	1013	588	825	504	442	90	1857	3299	680	492	698	3563	2771	1790	2095	3223	721	855	726	625	557	645	702	104	1610	389	678	720	1431	4767	1867	643	835	5007	591	838	2549	637	585	673	765	1113	658	1853
2020-10-07	277	592	793	504	973	1453	1044	348	1427	2820	3088	996	1206	1102	886	753	1837	1563	14240	956	3317	1786	582	6012	573	1662	583	11340	669	623	2704	472	1349	2306	531	2152	866	519	1025	1881	3549	2335	543	1267	553	901	976	514	1714	1484	1011	623	948	3766	3465	753	409	501	1286	938	477	583	1629	300	6460	2986	572	597	2680	855	1096	889	441	2039	388	3172	940	796	2296	2753	266	390	670	731	392	626	2615	939	1109	589	556	279	827	2100	829	486	747	1147	400	609	882	263	880	2958	772	750	290	763	635	1531	833	2134	604	1349	674	1592	520	1342	2092	398	1324	260	496	1753	1075	864	812	2045	849	735	2029	1164	1342	822	496	1186	1036	895	992	2149	1170	5749	3473	2303	1513	12270	7770	477	1895	655	617	10660	2292	829	200	389	12350	625	1361	325	277	1327	281	419	808	2012	1335	469	693	961	5709	1239	2441	205	953	527	593	446	1219	268	1263	2413	485	524	2264	3519	518	5285	1230	880	5366	1491	1854	2010	1084	860	3019	1077	2393	1308	582	996	593	1147	453	4574	381	986	273	3592	769	536	939	769	195	265	4419	3814	894	499	4524	662	572	9540	2072	1168	2066	610	382	609	663	1264	173	804	741	917	481	410	816	1194	467	729	2523	1298	1014	2278	592	945	3219	1017	586	465	3812	2177	2320	809	401	4482	614	1328	724	1480	3944	527	479	340	1005	814	689	370	1017	598	835	509	448	91	1896	3385	688	500	705	3655	2823	1823	2133	3315	732	864	735	632	562	650	712	106	1662	403	682	727	1459	4896	1887	650	848	5155	598	848	2575	648	589	681	776	1137	667	1911
2020-10-08	279	601	805	510	985	1456	1054	351	1446	2874	3141	1014	1223	1108	900	777	1853	1580	14500	966	3373	1822	594	6130	576	1701	589	11600	676	627	2740	480	1373	2357	535	2174	882	525	1066	1949	3628	2391	550	1284	561	907	984	519	1725	1507	1021	630	955	3842	3540	762	412	509	1313	945	482	587	1653	304	6632	3047	586	602	2715	865	1128	893	447	2068	392	3239	955	798	2332	2811	269	397	679	747	398	634	2663	948	1119	593	561	281	849	2132	842	493	758	1269	402	614	885	268	898	3030	794	759	291	768	648	1550	844	2207	617	1371	684	1625	524	1360	2128	404	1364	265	499	1773	1080	877	829	2086	861	741	2058	1175	1377	826	498	1211	1052	902	998	2178	1187	5908	3634	2336	1551	12760	7836	481	1922	665	631	11160	2311	835	202	395	12890	634	1371	330	281	1340	284	422	814	2080	1350	475	703	986	6000	1256	2486	208	973	545	604	455	1242	270	1274	2493	489	532	2278	3614	527	5774	1241	889	5476	1515	1895	2024	1096	877	3084	1085	2436	1340	588	1002	620	1186	462	4715	383	1015	275	3684	780	542	977	777	200	274	4561	3865	907	503	4724	673	582	9870	2098	1187	2106	618	388	621	673	1285	176	807	761	934	487	416	825	1231	475	743	2588	1313	1024	2301	600	961	3333	1040	596	467	3919	2251	2340	822	407	4614	621	1336	730	1488	4029	532	484	346	1019	824	696	375	1021	607	845	515	455	92	1934	3485	695	508	714	3745	2876	1852	2167	3410	740	872	745	637	566	656	722	108	1718	418	688	738	1484	5027	1907	658	862	5282	608	858	2601	659	592	691	789	1160	678	1973
2020-10-09	281	611	818	515	1000	1459	1064	355	1464	2919	3195	1031	1239	1114	913	799	1870	1595	14780	977	3427	1859	605	6250	578	1746	594	11840	681	630	2776	488	1393	2404	540	2197	896	532	1110	2021	3705	2450	558	1302	570	914	991	524	1737	1531	1030	636	960	3936	3618	771	416	517	1338	953	487	591	1680	308	6802	3108	602	607	2750	877	1155	898	452	2096	398	3300	969	801	2370	2853	271	403	685	764	403	643	2708	955	1130	596	567	283	872	2163	855	499	774	1391	404	618	887	271	916	3103	817	767	293	773	661	1570	854	2278	629	1387	695	1658	528	1389	2161	410	1404	269	503	1797	1084	891	846	2120	879	747	2087	1186	1413	829	500	1239	1071	909	1004	2208	1203	6043	3799	2368	1588	13240	7906	485	1948	675	648	11670	2329	844	204	400	13420	642	1383	336	285	1353	287	425	820	2155	1366	481	712	1010	6299	1278	2531	212	990	565	616	464	1266	272	1285	2583	494	540	2292	3710	536	6294	1251	898	5583	1537	1938	2039	1107	892	3154	1094	2478	1373	595	1009	648	1220	471	4837	385	1044	276	3778	794	550	1018	784	204	284	4693	3916	919	506	4932	685	591	10210	2124	1206	2145	625	395	633	683	1306	178	810	778	953	492	423	835	1266	481	758	2655	1327	1034	2327	607	975	3445	1063	605	470	4026	2332	2359	837	411	4749	632	1345	736	1495	4117	537	489	352	1034	832	703	379	1024	616	856	521	462	93	1972	3573	702	517	720	3826	2928	1884	2201	3503	750	881	755	642	571	662	733	109	1776	432	693	746	1512	5150	1926	663	876	5404	618	868	2624	669	596	699	801	1185	688	2035
2020-10-10	283	620	829	520	1015	1463	1074	358	1482	2944	3247	1049	1255	1120	927	823	1887	1608	15050	988	3484	1896	611	6373	580	1783	599	12040	686	634	2809	496	1414	2446	544	2219	909	538	1153	2096	3780	2504	564	1318	578	921	998	528	1748	1547	1038	642	967	4009	3692	781	420	525	1363	961	491	595	1703	311	6965	3169	618	611	2784	887	1182	901	457	2125	403	3349	981	804	2406	2895	274	408	691	778	407	650	2752	962	1141	599	571	285	895	2196	869	504	792	1443	406	622	889	275	931	3177	838	775	295	778	675	1588	864	2347	640	1401	704	1689	532	1416	2180	416	1446	274	506	1820	1089	905	864	2157	888	753	2117	1196	1450	832	502	1262	1086	916	1010	2234	1220	6162	3965	2393	1615	13720	7964	490	1974	686	662	12170	2347	850	206	405	13960	649	1396	340	289	1366	289	428	826	2196	1380	487	718	1037	6613	1298	2577	216	1009	583	625	474	1289	274	1294	2673	498	548	2307	3809	543	6807	1261	908	5691	1560	1983	2050	1119	907	3232	1103	2521	1402	601	1013	678	1244	480	4946	387	1071	279	3861	806	555	1053	790	210	295	4829	3967	928	509	5088	695	601	10560	2151	1225	2182	633	401	643	692	1328	180	813	795	971	498	428	845	1298	484	771	2724	1339	1044	2346	615	987	3543	1086	611	472	4135	2421	2374	850	415	4889	639	1353	742	1501	4205	542	493	358	1048	842	710	384	1027	626	865	527	468	94	2003	3654	708	526	726	3890	2980	1911	2235	3599	762	889	764	645	575	667	740	111	1828	448	697	751	1536	5266	1946	667	890	5535	623	877	2650	680	600	702	811	1206	698	2093
2020-10-11	284	630	842	525	1025	1466	1083	362	1502	2979	3300	1066	1272	1125	942	839	1903	1624	15330	999	3537	1934	619	6482	583	1815	605	12250	692	637	2845	504	1432	2489	547	2243	915	544	1199	2175	3854	2562	570	1335	586	927	1005	532	1759	1565	1046	648	973	4084	3766	790	423	533	1388	969	495	599	1725	314	7139	3231	633	615	2819	897	1210	906	462	2154	408	3398	992	806	2440	2940	277	413	697	790	412	657	2796	970	1151	601	575	288	919	2228	883	510	808	1522	408	626	890	279	948	3253	863	784	297	783	688	1605	872	2422	653	1419	712	1721	537	1437	2196	420	1489	278	509	1843	1092	917	882	2191	896	758	2147	1207	1488	835	504	1285	1098	923	1015	2262	1236	6260	4132	2421	1637	14200	8015	494	2000	694	677	12720	2365	856	208	409	14500	657	1406	346	293	1379	292	431	833	2241	1397	493	723	1066	6952	1314	2625	221	1025	602	635	481	1314	275	1302	2765	502	557	2321	3911	551	7391	1271	917	5793	1584	2028	2061	1131	922	3295	1111	2564	1434	608	1018	710	1269	490	5042	389	1098	281	3942	815	562	1088	797	214	305	4949	4016	939	512	5280	706	611	10930	2178	1244	2220	640	407	656	700	1350	182	816	810	990	505	433	854	1329	488	781	2794	1352	1054	2360	622	998	3663	1110	616	474	4241	2494	2392	861	420	5035	646	1361	748	1508	4291	547	498	364	1062	849	717	388	1029	636	874	532	473	95	2035	3741	715	534	732	3953	3032	1939	2259	3690	772	898	773	649	580	673	749	112	1882	464	701	756	1552	5383	1966	671	901	5646	629	886	2675	690	603	708	823	1229	708	2158
2020-10-12	286	640	856	531	1039	1469	1092	366	1520	3014	3349	1085	1290	1130	955	865	1920	1641	15620	1010	3595	1973	625	6602	585	1854	610	12500	698	640	2882	512	1444	2510	551	2266	926	551	1239	2260	3943	2618	578	1353	593	934	1014	536	1770	1588	1054	655	978	4169	3847	800	427	542	1413	976	500	604	1749	318	7322	3297	649	620	2855	908	1246	911	467	2183	413	3451	1008	809	2474	2989	279	419	704	804	418	663	2842	978	1161	605	580	290	944	2262	896	515	821	1618	410	630	892	284	966	3331	890	792	298	788	702	1624	880	2496	667	1436	722	1757	541	1465	2215	426	1532	283	513	1866	1096	929	901	2224	908	763	2178	1218	1526	838	507	1315	1112	930	1022	2292	1253	6367	4323	2455	1663	14690	8075	499	2027	703	692	13260	2384	862	210	413	15100	665	1417	351	298	1393	295	435	839	2296	1413	499	728	1103	7324	1334	2674	225	1037	623	645	489	1339	277	1309	2869	507	564	2335	4014	559	8056	1282	926	5900	1606	2094	2073	1143	937	3375	1120	2608	1469	614	1023	748	1295	499	5163	392	1124	283	4021	826	567	1132	804	219	315	5072	4071	953	514	5508	717	621	11300	2206	1264	2263	648	414	668	711	1372	185	819	825	1008	510	438	865	1371	492	793	2866	1366	1065	2382	630	1007	3802	1135	622	477	4358	2574	2410	872	424	5185	653	1370	754	1514	4382	551	503	370	1076	858	724	393	1032	645	886	537	479	95	2073	3828	721	544	736	4032	3087	1969	2287	3791	783	906	782	654	584	678	759	114	1933	481	705	760	1571	5508	1986	677	914	5796	634	896	2704	701	607	717	835	1252	719	2226

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

2020-10-13

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-05 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-10-05