COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-08 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-08

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-08

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-1504-2104-2904-2904-0904-1404-1704-1003-2803-2504-2303-2804-1803-2705-1404-0204-1803-30 -- -- --04-1204-18 --04-0204-1904-04 --05-0304-2003-2603-2603-3004-1604-2603-2705-1103-1804-15 --05-12 --04-0803-2804-0804-0804-2103-2904-1705-0904-1604-0303-3005-0504-2205-0605-0305-0804-0704-1704-1105-0304-1904-0204-2004-0204-1104-2003-2704-0304-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1204-2104-2104-1604-1604-2204-1604-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-0203-3004-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-0503-2903-2904-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2604-2304-15 --04-1803-2607-0108-2204-1303-2604-1304-1903-2405-03 --04-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-1004-2204-07 --03-3103-2503-26 --06-1404-1303-2503-2508-2503-3104-0304-2703-2203-30 --05-2403-2903-2305-0403-2503-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-3003-2503-2804-2903-2504-2004-1803-2604-2603-2504-1805-0404-2203-2904-0804-1008-0204-1004-2004-1404-22 --07-3103-3107-2704-2904-1404-14 --04-0703-3004-2204-1004-0505-2403-1904-21 --04-20 --05-1404-1704-2904-1304-1404-0505-0704-20 --03-2404-1804-2203-2908-2703-2603-2304-2004-23 --05-2603-2304-1504-0104-1703-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2705-09 --04-2603-2104-1504-1803-2703-27 --03-2904-1504-1504-1403-3004-0104-2004-2404-1003-3008-2804-0604-05 --07-29 --03-2104-0704-1505-1204-1404-2204-0204-1304-1703-2504-1104-1704-0603-2503-2705-1304-2703-2504-2203-2503-2303-24 --03-2404-0304-1304-1808-0205-1004-0704-1804-2004-2104-1904-1403-1704-1505-0308-1804-0803-3004-1404-1404-1704-1508-2604-1503-2904-2004-1304-21
Peak daily increment 5 8 8 18 12 22 13 6 19 47 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 30 21 6 8 20 8 11 9 51 7 13 25 12 38 21 6 9 24 6 19 7 15 25 6 19 14 16 12 12 40 31 9 14 7 12 23 8 7 17 4 68 22 5 11 49 9 15 19 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 34 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 6 8 26 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 12 36 7 14 7 10 14 25 13 15 6 32 6 21 10 12 30 6 14 9 28 43 17 7 24 9 11 23 29 20 16 16 16 18 23 43 16 22 39 32 75 6 37 8 10 55 23 24 4 5 17 24 3 4 24 10 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 33 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 20 10 5 69 37 7 25 13 35 21 14 33 18 12 22 29 14 9 17 4 15 11 7 4 30 9 6 7 14 2 3 30 21 7 35 11 8 69 21 18 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 18 8 8 22 17 15 44 12 31 18 7 7 31 17 27 14 9 57 9 28 15 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 21 7 11 6 9 6 25 22 10 15 9 28 31 28 32 9 12 12 8 7 8 11 2 14 4 11 14 19 53 37 10 7 45 8 15 28 12 11 10 6 16 10 30
Days from 100 to peak -2 21 23 19 7 16 20 -4 10 14 34 8 25 9 40 2 25 13 13 8 -4 25 4 30 16 15 -6 7 27 18 14 45 -12 14 50 3 13 7 10 28 -7 26 37 23 7 3 44 31 34 23 37 8 17 12 12 28 -7 30 15 0 20 15 9 21 7 -21 6 6 25 25 39 24 15 1 16 16 17 3 11 26 18 21 10 15 -3 1 16 3 -3 12 -6 18 19 35 -21 56 6 17 20 4 1 40 14 9 2 -6 31 7 11 -2 18 14 17 9 19 8 90 154 7 11 10 20 9 31 16 6 0 7 32 11 21 18 7 15 8 85 9 12 -2 131 15 13 30 -30 -8 44 8 -47 -11 11 -29 11 26 3 32 38 0 -12 10 27 10 -8 19 -15 22 -10 16 17 20 6 4 5 132 17 11 24 29 133 7 111 29 16 21 13 14 26 8 15 32 1 3 10 21 28 22 10 10 7 -77 -10 8 14 13 8 133 -4 12 28 35 48 -12 14 1 24 -132 14 22 7 14 -14 43 13 -4 19 27 3 18 5 24 11 5 -5 12 25 29 14 -3 159 6 19 122 -10 6 3 44 15 24 -3 15 18 1 9 13 9 7 36 19 -3 31 9 7 14 -4 9 14 16 106 36 12 24 -5 20 5 7 23 42 148 14 9 10 19 34 13 141 17 1 19 14 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 31 43 54 43 30 30 38 30 22 21 43 17 36 24 56 25 35 24 27 41 17 40 27 52 37 21 17 31 39 43 21 62 13 40 63 33 26 32 24 41 24 40 57 43 24 21 55 42 59 54 67 29 33 30 49 45 35 35 25 33 41 21 33 36 20 20 16 40 33 42 61 34 24 39 61 39 45 29 41 38 39 36 38 39 44 19 26 17 15 42 24 43 46 61 14 82 13 43 37 39 17 57 23 31 17 24 42 47 22 12 39 22 44 27 42 18 106 167 43 22 34 43 21 49 33 36 11 25 51 26 30 32 17 22 14 91 33 20 19 163 21 24 43 11 18 71 21 16 54 22 10 41 43 11 44 60 18 27 19 44 17 28 43 13 45 16 32 50 37 19 31 35 137 26 40 39 50 143 26 133 44 34 39 28 22 38 29 29 69 13 34 36 63 36 53 38 37 25 53 42 16 32 46 16 163 14 16 42 50 71 21 42 27 42 27 40 53 20 38 18 59 44 16 31 41 16 25 27 31 26 36 24 24 40 40 32 18 166 24 29 140 10 28 47 61 32 48 26 30 41 17 35 49 26 21 21 62 45 17 40 18 16 22 13 20 37 41 141 62 30 52 35 41 44 32 18 29 55 169 38 16 39 41 44 34 163 35 28 35 36 36
Last total 215 423 500 381 647 1376 867 294 953 2016 2230 631 912 990 679 450 1498 1218 7765 642 2038 1143 395 3043 509 984 445 6888 544 526 2022 333 936 1620 446 1716 614 342 532 735 1779 1331 418 896 372 751 822 373 1395 970 828 486 773 2513 2249 558 318 361 768 773 375 466 1023 235 3762 1838 295 502 2088 643 653 772 323 1486 283 2133 706 744 1541 1933 215 274 554 482 283 472 1767 740 935 498 472 227 547 1472 570 378 469 290 336 521 824 178 518 1523 438 593 249 653 421 1123 640 804 352 996 461 1012 414 862 1552 297 719 180 392 1219 956 604 507 1393 619 574 1399 972 574 742 443 729 754 740 883 1654 869 3304 1197 1690 949 5245 6038 411 1411 455 365 3252 1808 705 156 271 4845 417 1158 238 177 1067 235 362 677 1195 1027 370 546 485 1914 900 1633 143 659 259 427 274 798 233 1020 1089 375 369 1903 1768 365 1488 965 606 3197 1072 993 1699 788 589 1617 905 1439 810 450 856 246 705 295 2486 319 414 215 2291 461 380 464 641 120 152 2102 2418 623 422 1841 397 427 5002 1571 808 1183 480 262 419 467 889 123 724 476 654 369 313 671 627 371 455 1170 1047 791 1733 430 632 1416 652 428 369 2114 1108 1801 584 302 2141 484 1121 600 1315 2206 400 364 236 726 679 563 288 942 424 643 398 318 63 1130 1822 543 337 558 2243 1791 1241 1529 1610 502 686 544 526 453 498 549 78 854 194 588 566 1034 2484 1496 524 545 2511 435 667 1801 451 474 500 557 707 450 1017
Last daily increment 2 0 6 1 3 0 2 0 6 8 5 1 1 3 1 1 6 2 101 9 45 2 1 64 0 5 3 27 0 6 7 0 5 7 1 4 4 1 0 20 27 13 0 6 7 1 1 2 1 7 2 0 2 6 9 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 2 0 29 5 2 0 8 0 2 0 2 2 1 8 1 0 13 14 1 0 0 3 0 0 7 6 1 0 1 0 3 10 1 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 6 16 4 0 2 1 0 3 3 5 2 7 6 7 2 7 7 0 5 3 0 11 2 0 1 2 2 8 1 5 18 0 0 4 2 5 4 1 2 31 19 5 6 48 44 1 5 1 1 22 1 0 2 0 49 2 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 10 3 3 1 1 23 2 19 0 4 1 2 3 7 0 3 11 0 0 15 6 3 8 0 16 41 8 3 4 2 9 29 1 10 4 1 2 0 2 1 20 1 5 0 12 3 1 0 0 0 0 28 29 2 1 9 3 0 23 2 6 11 0 3 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 3 0 3 0 5 13 1 4 7 12 5 13 2 2 4 11 8 5 5 1 33 0 2 1 4 31 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 7 11 0 2 0 6 11 3 6 31 6 0 0 1 3 5 2 0 4 3 1 2 5 16 2 0 5 35 4 1 27 1 4 0 2 3 1 7
Last week 9 7 28 22 29 3 15 6 49 75 51 15 20 11 16 22 33 23 899 49 130 24 11 439 2 56 21 367 6 9 51 13 40 72 8 35 24 11 31 68 126 92 11 40 22 9 12 10 15 44 17 9 15 69 66 20 16 11 25 6 1 32 23 5 184 96 17 14 45 10 18 11 12 39 4 40 39 12 78 79 1 11 8 11 12 8 38 28 15 24 8 4 28 84 11 11 15 15 13 6 7 3 17 98 17 10 4 9 7 25 20 48 9 45 22 71 7 55 61 2 39 14 3 73 30 33 16 59 19 22 75 10 66 5 6 43 35 33 9 26 24 168 90 73 19 456 209 9 34 16 21 288 43 10 3 21 357 30 16 10 13 24 4 6 17 56 33 7 33 22 160 23 110 7 15 13 22 26 23 1 49 79 11 10 69 49 9 85 13 51 165 35 49 51 26 27 116 29 95 30 4 17 4 35 5 135 5 28 10 81 32 14 18 9 3 3 173 157 33 8 87 44 8 212 25 26 123 13 10 8 19 30 4 2 17 17 8 12 13 47 6 28 81 20 17 57 39 28 107 27 12 11 91 44 51 20 6 241 6 18 30 26 175 15 10 5 23 2 24 4 4 13 13 9 10 4 68 82 19 14 12 84 68 39 72 152 22 20 16 22 18 29 8 2 39 14 10 25 44 111 57 5 25 192 18 17 132 8 34 25 21 26 10 29
Days since peak 146 140 132 132 152 147 144 151 164 167 138 164 143 165 117 159 143 162 149 143 159 142 157 128 141 166 166 162 145 135 165 120 174 146 119 153 164 153 153 140 163 144 122 145 158 162 126 139 125 128 123 154 144 150 128 142 159 141 159 150 141 165 158 139 161 167 169 143 145 142 118 151 165 138 136 144 146 149 140 140 145 145 139 145 138 168 162 167 167 144 162 143 133 120 165 98 162 145 142 146 162 120 164 156 163 163 146 141 166 167 141 166 138 146 143 166 69 17 148 166 148 142 168 128 144 140 177 171 128 151 139 154 161 167 166 86 148 167 167 14 161 158 134 170 162 107 163 169 127 167 165 138 139 165 140 126 162 167 164 132 167 141 143 166 135 167 143 127 139 163 153 151 37 151 141 147 139 39 161 43 132 147 147 154 162 139 151 156 107 173 140 141 117 144 132 148 147 156 124 141 168 143 139 163 12 166 169 141 138 105 169 146 160 144 167 133 132 168 139 165 122 135 171 146 143 165 165 163 146 146 147 162 160 141 137 151 162 11 155 156 41 171 154 146 119 147 139 159 148 144 167 150 144 155 167 165 118 134 167 139 167 169 168 168 158 148 143 37 121 154 143 141 140 142 147 175 146 128 21 153 162 147 147 144 146 13 146 163 141 148 140

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-15

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartlepoolHastingsHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandReigate and BansteadRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTelford and WrekinTest ValleyThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-08 215 423 500 381 647 867 294 953 2016 2230 631 912 990 679 450 1498 1218 7765 642 2038 1143 395 3043 984 445 6888 544 526 2022 333 936 1620 446 1716 614 342 532 735 1779 1331 418 896 372 751 822 373 1395 970 828 486 773 2513 2249 558 318 361 768 773 466 1023 3762 1838 295 502 2088 643 653 772 323 1486 2133 706 744 1541 1933 274 554 482 283 472 1767 740 935 498 472 547 1472 570 378 469 290 336 521 824 518 1523 438 593 653 421 1123 640 804 352 996 461 1012 414 862 1552 719 180 1219 956 604 507 1393 619 574 1399 972 574 443 729 754 740 883 1654 869 3304 1197 1690 949 5245 6038 411 1411 455 365 3252 1808 705 271 4845 417 1158 238 177 1067 362 677 1195 1027 370 546 485 1914 900 1633 143 659 259 427 274 798 1020 1089 375 369 1903 1768 365 1488 965 606 3197 1072 993 1699 788 589 1617 905 1439 810 856 705 2486 414 215 2291 461 380 464 641 2102 2418 623 422 1841 397 427 5002 1571 808 1183 480 262 419 467 889 476 654 369 313 671 627 371 455 1170 1047 791 1733 430 632 1416 652 428 369 2114 1108 1801 584 302 2141 484 1121 600 1315 2206 400 364 726 563 424 643 398 318 1130 1822 543 337 558 2243 1791 1241 1529 1610 502 686 544 526 453 498 549 854 194 588 566 1034 2484 1496 545 2511 435 667 1801 451 474 500 557 707 450 1017
2020-09-09 216 424 506 383 652 868 295 959 2027 2236 634 915 991 681 453 1498 1222 7824 653 2066 1146 397 3043 996 448 6986 545 529 2029 335 941 1623 447 1722 621 344 539 751 1800 1341 420 897 375 752 824 374 1398 976 830 488 775 2533 2259 558 319 363 769 774 471 1027 3790 1849 296 502 2095 646 653 772 324 1486 2144 711 746 1553 1933 274 556 484 284 474 1771 744 937 499 473 551 1489 572 379 471 292 337 521 826 523 1541 440 594 655 423 1128 642 810 353 998 461 1022 414 868 1561 726 182 1229 956 605 509 1400 621 579 1404 974 587 444 736 760 745 884 1655 872 3366 1210 1699 949 5320 6063 413 1416 455 365 3280 1813 706 271 4898 417 1158 239 178 1070 363 679 1202 1031 371 548 487 1933 904 1650 144 663 260 427 277 801 1031 1103 376 370 1913 1775 365 1498 967 608 3221 1077 1001 1706 792 592 1646 909 1455 815 858 709 2495 423 215 2303 464 381 464 642 2163 2444 628 423 1856 401 429 5034 1575 812 1197 480 264 420 469 894 478 657 371 314 673 627 372 459 1182 1050 794 1741 437 635 1433 657 430 370 2128 1115 1809 588 303 2171 485 1124 601 1322 2256 402 365 728 567 426 645 399 319 1142 1833 545 338 560 2253 1799 1246 1533 1642 505 688 547 526 455 502 551 860 195 590 569 1040 2503 1496 549 2544 437 669 1823 452 478 500 561 707 451 1021
2020-09-10 216 426 511 385 656 870 296 964 2037 2241 636 918 993 682 456 1505 1226 7886 664 2098 1148 398 3043 1007 450 7079 546 531 2036 336 945 1627 448 1727 627 345 546 767 1821 1351 423 903 379 753 825 376 1401 982 832 489 776 2546 2270 558 321 365 769 776 475 1031 3818 1860 297 502 2102 650 653 772 324 1486 2152 714 747 1565 1940 274 557 486 285 475 1775 747 938 500 474 555 1505 575 381 473 293 338 522 828 527 1558 442 596 656 425 1132 645 816 355 1006 462 1032 415 874 1568 732 185 1240 956 607 511 1407 622 583 1408 975 600 444 744 768 749 885 1656 876 3426 1226 1708 949 5395 6086 414 1421 455 365 3309 1818 707 271 4953 417 1159 240 180 1073 364 682 1209 1036 373 551 489 1959 907 1666 145 667 261 427 280 803 1040 1117 377 372 1923 1781 365 1508 968 619 3242 1081 1009 1713 797 595 1676 912 1471 820 861 714 2525 428 215 2315 468 383 464 644 2213 2468 633 424 1871 405 430 5065 1579 815 1210 480 265 420 471 898 479 660 372 316 674 634 373 464 1193 1052 796 1748 444 639 1450 661 431 370 2142 1121 1817 592 304 2201 486 1127 604 1330 2296 405 366 730 570 427 646 400 320 1154 1844 547 338 562 2261 1806 1251 1546 1675 508 691 549 526 456 505 553 866 197 591 572 1047 2522 1496 553 2576 438 672 1844 454 482 500 565 707 452 1024
2020-09-11 217 427 517 387 661 871 296 970 2048 2246 639 921 994 684 459 1508 1229 7946 674 2136 1150 400 3043 1018 453 7167 547 533 2042 338 949 1630 449 1732 633 347 552 783 1841 1361 425 910 382 755 827 377 1404 988 835 491 778 2556 2280 558 322 367 770 777 480 1035 3846 1871 298 502 2109 653 653 772 325 1486 2159 718 749 1577 1950 274 559 488 285 477 1779 751 940 501 474 558 1522 577 382 474 294 339 522 829 531 1575 444 597 658 427 1137 647 822 356 1013 462 1042 416 881 1576 738 187 1250 956 609 514 1413 624 587 1413 976 612 445 751 774 753 886 1657 879 3474 1239 1717 949 5470 6109 416 1426 455 365 3338 1824 709 271 5008 417 1159 241 181 1076 365 684 1216 1040 374 553 491 1985 911 1682 146 671 263 427 283 805 1045 1130 378 373 1933 1788 366 1518 970 631 3264 1085 1017 1720 801 598 1705 915 1487 825 863 718 2558 432 215 2326 471 384 464 645 2266 2493 637 425 1887 409 432 5097 1583 818 1224 480 266 421 473 902 481 663 373 317 676 639 375 468 1204 1055 799 1756 451 642 1466 665 433 370 2155 1127 1825 596 305 2230 488 1129 605 1333 2338 407 368 733 574 429 648 401 322 1166 1854 549 338 565 2271 1813 1257 1564 1708 511 693 552 526 458 509 554 872 198 593 576 1053 2541 1496 557 2609 440 674 1865 455 486 500 569 707 454 1028
2020-09-12 218 428 522 389 665 872 297 976 2058 2252 641 923 996 686 463 1511 1233 8008 686 2170 1153 401 3043 1028 455 7250 548 536 2049 339 953 1633 449 1737 638 348 558 799 1860 1371 427 913 384 756 829 379 1407 994 837 492 780 2566 2290 558 323 369 770 778 484 1039 3873 1881 299 502 2115 657 653 772 326 1486 2165 721 751 1589 1961 274 561 490 286 479 1783 754 942 502 475 562 1538 579 384 476 296 340 523 830 535 1592 446 598 659 429 1141 649 827 357 1021 463 1052 416 887 1584 745 190 1260 956 610 516 1420 626 591 1417 977 625 446 758 777 758 887 1657 882 3533 1251 1725 949 5544 6131 418 1430 455 365 3368 1829 710 271 5065 417 1159 242 183 1079 366 686 1223 1044 376 555 493 2013 915 1698 146 675 264 427 285 808 1054 1143 379 374 1942 1794 366 1528 971 641 3285 1090 1024 1726 805 600 1735 918 1502 830 865 722 2579 432 215 2338 475 385 464 646 2295 2516 642 425 1902 413 433 5127 1587 821 1238 480 268 421 474 907 482 665 375 318 677 641 376 472 1215 1057 802 1763 457 645 1481 669 435 370 2168 1133 1833 599 306 2259 489 1132 607 1334 2378 409 369 735 578 431 650 402 323 1178 1865 551 339 567 2279 1820 1262 1570 1741 514 696 554 526 460 512 556 878 199 594 579 1059 2560 1496 561 2641 441 676 1885 456 490 500 572 707 455 1031
2020-09-13 219 429 527 391 669 874 298 981 2068 2257 644 926 997 688 466 1514 1237 8071 697 2204 1155 403 3043 1038 457 7333 549 538 2055 341 957 1637 450 1742 644 350 564 816 1880 1380 429 915 387 757 830 380 1409 999 839 494 781 2576 2300 558 324 371 770 780 489 1042 3900 1892 300 502 2122 660 653 772 326 1486 2170 724 752 1600 1967 275 562 492 287 481 1786 758 943 503 476 565 1553 582 385 477 297 341 523 831 539 1609 448 600 661 431 1145 651 833 358 1023 463 1062 416 893 1591 751 192 1270 956 612 518 1426 627 595 1421 978 637 446 766 784 762 888 1658 885 3583 1265 1734 949 5619 6152 420 1435 455 365 3398 1834 711 271 5124 417 1160 243 184 1081 367 689 1229 1048 377 557 495 2040 919 1714 147 678 265 427 288 810 1060 1156 379 375 1952 1800 366 1538 973 651 3306 1094 1032 1732 809 603 1766 921 1517 834 867 726 2603 436 215 2349 478 386 464 647 2332 2540 646 426 1917 417 435 5157 1591 824 1252 480 269 421 476 911 484 668 376 319 679 647 377 476 1227 1059 804 1770 463 647 1497 673 436 371 2182 1139 1840 603 307 2288 490 1135 609 1341 2419 411 370 737 582 433 651 403 324 1189 1875 552 339 569 2288 1826 1267 1578 1775 517 698 557 526 462 515 558 884 200 596 582 1065 2578 1496 565 2673 443 678 1904 457 494 500 576 707 456 1034
2020-09-14 219 430 532 392 674 875 299 986 2078 2262 646 929 998 690 469 1522 1240 8134 709 2246 1157 404 3043 1049 460 7433 550 540 2062 342 961 1640 451 1747 649 352 570 833 1900 1390 431 927 390 758 832 381 1412 1005 841 496 783 2590 2310 558 325 373 770 781 493 1046 3927 1902 301 502 2128 664 653 772 327 1486 2178 728 754 1612 1985 275 564 494 287 482 1790 761 945 504 477 569 1569 584 386 479 299 342 524 831 542 1626 450 601 662 433 1149 654 838 360 1033 463 1072 417 899 1599 757 195 1280 956 614 520 1433 629 599 1425 980 649 447 773 789 766 889 1658 888 3641 1279 1742 949 5694 6174 421 1439 455 365 3428 1839 712 271 5182 417 1160 244 185 1084 368 691 1236 1052 378 558 497 2059 922 1730 148 682 266 427 290 812 1066 1170 380 376 1961 1806 366 1547 974 666 3327 1098 1040 1739 813 605 1797 925 1533 839 869 730 2643 441 215 2360 482 387 464 648 2378 2564 651 427 1932 421 436 5188 1595 827 1266 480 271 422 478 915 485 670 377 320 681 652 378 480 1238 1062 807 1778 469 650 1512 677 438 371 2195 1146 1848 606 308 2317 491 1138 611 1342 2471 413 371 739 586 434 653 403 325 1201 1885 554 340 571 2297 1833 1272 1590 1810 520 701 559 526 464 519 560 890 201 597 585 1071 2597 1496 569 2705 445 680 1924 458 497 500 580 707 457 1037
2020-09-15 220 432 537 394 678 876 300 992 2088 2268 649 931 1000 691 472 1526 1244 8198 721 2295 1160 406 3044 1059 462 7530 551 542 2068 343 965 1643 452 1752 654 353 576 850 1920 1400 433 932 393 759 833 383 1415 1010 843 497 784 2598 2320 558 327 375 771 782 498 1050 3955 1913 302 502 2135 668 653 772 328 1486 2184 731 756 1624 1997 275 566 496 288 484 1794 765 946 505 477 573 1585 586 388 480 300 343 524 831 546 1643 452 602 663 435 1153 656 843 361 1040 464 1083 418 905 1607 763 197 1290 956 616 522 1439 630 603 1430 981 662 448 780 792 770 890 1659 892 3695 1295 1751 949 5770 6196 423 1444 456 365 3458 1844 713 271 5242 417 1160 245 187 1087 369 693 1242 1056 380 560 499 2081 926 1746 149 686 267 427 293 814 1070 1183 381 378 1971 1812 367 1557 976 680 3348 1102 1048 1745 818 608 1828 928 1549 844 872 734 2679 448 215 2371 485 389 464 649 2419 2587 656 428 1947 426 438 5218 1599 831 1280 480 272 422 479 919 487 673 379 321 682 658 379 485 1249 1064 809 1785 476 653 1528 681 440 371 2209 1152 1856 610 309 2347 492 1140 613 1346 2511 415 372 741 589 436 654 404 326 1213 1896 556 340 573 2305 1840 1277 1598 1845 523 703 562 526 466 522 561 896 202 599 588 1077 2615 1496 573 2738 446 682 1944 459 501 500 584 707 458 1040

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-15

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartlepoolHastingsHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandReigate and BansteadRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTelford and WrekinTest ValleyThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-08 215 423 500 381 647 867 294 953 2016 2230 631 912 990 679 450 1498 1218 7765 642 2038 1143 395 3043 984 445 6888 544 526 2022 333 936 1620 446 1716 614 342 532 735 1779 1331 418 896 372 751 822 373 1395 970 828 486 773 2513 2249 558 318 361 768 773 466 1023 3762 1838 295 502 2088 643 653 772 323 1486 2133 706 744 1541 1933 274 554 482 283 472 1767 740 935 498 472 547 1472 570 378 469 290 336 521 824 518 1523 438 593 653 421 1123 640 804 352 996 461 1012 414 862 1552 719 180 1219 956 604 507 1393 619 574 1399 972 574 443 729 754 740 883 1654 869 3304 1197 1690 949 5245 6038 411 1411 455 365 3252 1808 705 271 4845 417 1158 238 177 1067 362 677 1195 1027 370 546 485 1914 900 1633 143 659 259 427 274 798 1020 1089 375 369 1903 1768 365 1488 965 606 3197 1072 993 1699 788 589 1617 905 1439 810 856 705 2486 414 215 2291 461 380 464 641 2102 2418 623 422 1841 397 427 5002 1571 808 1183 480 262 419 467 889 476 654 369 313 671 627 371 455 1170 1047 791 1733 430 632 1416 652 428 369 2114 1108 1801 584 302 2141 484 1121 600 1315 2206 400 364 726 563 424 643 398 318 1130 1822 543 337 558 2243 1791 1241 1529 1610 502 686 544 526 453 498 549 854 194 588 566 1034 2484 1496 545 2511 435 667 1801 451 474 500 557 707 450 1017
2020-09-09 215 424 502 383 649 868 294 959 2027 2235 632 914 991 680 453 1499 1221 7902 648 2048 1145 397 3087 992 447 6976 545 528 2029 334 938 1630 447 1720 616 343 536 743 1788 1337 420 897 373 752 823 374 1397 972 829 487 773 2526 2255 559 319 363 769 774 469 1026 3774 1845 296 502 2095 645 655 773 324 1489 2136 708 745 1548 1933 275 555 483 284 473 1769 744 936 498 472 551 1481 572 380 470 291 337 521 825 519 1536 439 594 654 423 1126 641 807 353 1000 463 1019 414 865 1557 723 182 1228 957 606 509 1397 620 575 1403 972 578 443 735 759 742 884 1655 872 3347 1202 1699 949 5314 6042 412 1416 456 367 3279 1812 706 272 4910 419 1161 239 178 1070 363 679 1202 1030 371 550 485 1929 903 1641 144 660 260 429 276 799 1025 1096 376 370 1906 1773 367 1497 966 609 3204 1073 1000 1702 792 590 1636 907 1451 814 858 707 2519 418 216 2297 464 380 467 642 2135 2425 626 422 1850 401 428 5027 1575 810 1198 481 262 421 468 893 477 655 370 314 672 632 372 457 1181 1049 793 1736 432 634 1427 655 430 369 2122 1112 1807 585 303 2167 486 1123 602 1319 2237 401 365 727 566 426 645 398 319 1140 1829 544 339 560 2246 1795 1247 1536 1629 504 688 546 527 454 500 551 858 195 590 568 1039 2495 1501 547 2537 435 668 1807 452 477 502 561 709 451 1018
2020-09-10 216 425 503 386 652 869 295 966 2040 2241 634 917 992 681 458 1503 1223 8067 657 2068 1147 398 3156 1001 450 7089 546 530 2037 336 941 1640 447 1726 618 345 542 752 1804 1343 422 900 374 754 824 374 1400 975 831 489 774 2539 2263 559 321 365 770 776 474 1029 3794 1854 296 503 2102 648 657 773 326 1493 2140 712 746 1558 1937 276 557 485 285 475 1770 748 937 500 474 555 1490 574 381 471 293 338 521 827 520 1551 440 595 656 425 1130 642 811 354 1007 465 1029 414 871 1564 727 184 1239 958 611 511 1402 621 575 1410 973 586 444 742 767 746 885 1657 875 3399 1211 1712 949 5391 6054 412 1422 458 370 3316 1818 707 275 4987 421 1165 240 179 1073 364 681 1210 1034 372 557 487 1950 907 1659 145 662 261 430 279 800 1034 1105 377 372 1911 1780 369 1507 968 613 3216 1076 1009 1708 797 591 1660 910 1465 819 861 710 2554 424 217 2306 468 381 470 642 2173 2439 633 423 1862 405 430 5056 1579 812 1214 482 263 422 469 897 481 657 371 315 674 640 373 459 1193 1052 796 1743 435 637 1438 658 432 370 2133 1119 1813 587 304 2196 487 1127 604 1323 2273 404 366 729 570 428 647 399 320 1150 1839 546 341 563 2252 1800 1254 1547 1659 505 691 548 530 454 503 553 862 196 592 572 1045 2509 1509 551 2567 436 670 1818 453 480 504 565 711 452 1021
2020-09-11 217 427 505 389 655 871 296 972 2054 2247 635 920 993 683 461 1506 1226 8239 666 2094 1150 400 3226 1009 452 7199 547 532 2045 337 945 1650 448 1732 620 346 548 763 1820 1351 424 906 375 755 826 375 1403 977 832 491 775 2550 2272 560 322 367 772 777 479 1033 3818 1866 297 504 2110 651 660 774 327 1499 2143 717 748 1568 1944 278 558 487 286 478 1772 753 939 503 475 559 1501 577 384 474 294 339 521 828 520 1567 441 597 657 427 1134 644 815 356 1014 468 1038 415 877 1569 732 186 1251 959 616 514 1409 622 576 1418 974 594 445 750 774 750 886 1658 879 3441 1218 1723 950 5466 6072 413 1428 460 373 3354 1822 708 277 5067 424 1167 241 180 1076 365 683 1218 1038 373 563 487 1971 911 1674 145 664 262 432 281 801 1040 1115 378 374 1917 1787 371 1516 969 620 3232 1080 1017 1713 802 592 1687 913 1479 824 864 714 2593 430 219 2316 471 383 473 643 2215 2456 637 424 1874 410 432 5086 1583 816 1231 483 264 424 470 902 483 658 373 316 676 647 375 462 1206 1055 799 1750 438 640 1450 662 434 370 2143 1125 1819 589 306 2226 489 1130 607 1328 2311 406 367 731 574 430 648 399 321 1158 1849 548 343 564 2260 1806 1260 1563 1689 507 694 551 531 456 506 554 868 198 593 576 1052 2521 1518 554 2601 437 673 1829 454 483 507 569 713 453 1024
2020-09-12 218 428 507 391 658 872 297 978 2062 2253 636 923 994 685 464 1510 1229 8411 675 2120 1152 401 3299 1017 455 7307 548 534 2053 339 949 1658 449 1737 621 348 553 775 1836 1361 426 910 376 756 827 376 1406 980 834 493 776 2560 2282 561 323 369 773 779 484 1035 3846 1877 298 505 2118 655 662 775 328 1504 2147 720 749 1579 1955 279 559 489 287 479 1774 757 941 507 476 563 1511 580 385 475 296 340 522 829 521 1582 443 598 659 430 1138 645 819 357 1022 470 1047 415 883 1576 737 188 1261 961 621 517 1415 623 577 1426 974 604 446 757 779 754 887 1659 882 3491 1227 1732 951 5538 6094 414 1432 462 376 3390 1827 709 279 5148 428 1169 242 182 1079 366 685 1226 1042 375 567 488 1994 915 1688 146 665 263 435 284 803 1048 1126 378 375 1924 1793 373 1526 971 628 3253 1084 1024 1718 807 594 1712 917 1493 829 866 718 2626 434 220 2324 475 384 476 644 2247 2474 642 425 1886 415 433 5115 1588 819 1247 485 266 425 471 906 484 660 374 318 678 654 376 465 1219 1057 802 1757 441 643 1461 665 435 371 2155 1132 1825 591 306 2255 490 1132 610 1332 2350 408 368 734 578 432 651 400 322 1167 1858 550 344 566 2268 1812 1265 1571 1719 509 696 553 534 457 510 555 873 200 594 579 1057 2534 1526 558 2626 439 675 1838 455 486 509 573 715 454 1027
2020-09-13 218 429 509 394 660 874 298 983 2068 2259 638 925 996 686 467 1514 1232 8585 683 2144 1155 403 3367 1026 458 7412 548 536 2060 340 953 1666 450 1743 624 349 559 787 1853 1370 429 913 378 758 828 377 1409 983 835 494 777 2570 2290 562 325 371 774 780 489 1039 3866 1889 299 506 2125 658 665 776 329 1509 2150 724 750 1589 1960 280 561 490 287 480 1776 761 942 508 476 567 1521 582 386 477 297 341 522 830 522 1598 444 600 660 432 1142 647 823 358 1026 472 1056 416 889 1581 742 190 1271 963 625 519 1422 625 577 1433 976 613 447 764 785 758 887 1660 885 3531 1237 1739 952 5602 6111 415 1436 464 379 3426 1832 711 281 5230 431 1171 243 183 1083 367 687 1233 1046 376 570 489 2015 919 1699 147 667 264 437 287 805 1054 1135 379 376 1932 1800 375 1537 972 636 3273 1088 1031 1723 812 596 1739 920 1507 834 869 722 2654 440 220 2332 479 385 479 645 2277 2490 646 425 1899 420 435 5144 1592 822 1264 486 267 426 472 910 486 661 376 319 679 662 377 468 1231 1060 805 1761 444 647 1471 669 437 371 2165 1138 1831 593 307 2285 490 1135 613 1337 2388 410 370 736 583 434 652 400 323 1176 1867 551 346 567 2272 1819 1270 1580 1753 511 699 556 536 458 513 557 876 201 595 581 1063 2548 1534 562 2652 440 676 1849 456 490 511 577 717 455 1030
2020-09-14 219 431 511 396 663 875 299 991 2077 2265 639 928 997 688 469 1519 1234 8766 691 2174 1158 405 3436 1033 461 7525 549 538 2067 342 956 1675 451 1749 625 351 565 800 1870 1380 431 920 379 759 830 378 1412 986 836 496 777 2583 2300 562 326 373 776 782 494 1042 3885 1900 300 508 2133 662 667 777 330 1514 2154 727 752 1600 1973 282 562 492 288 482 1779 765 944 509 477 571 1532 585 387 478 299 342 523 831 523 1613 446 601 662 435 1146 648 827 360 1033 475 1065 416 898 1588 747 192 1281 966 631 522 1427 626 578 1441 977 623 448 771 792 762 888 1662 889 3574 1247 1748 953 5675 6129 416 1441 466 382 3463 1836 711 284 5314 434 1173 244 185 1086 368 689 1241 1050 377 573 492 2033 924 1712 148 669 265 439 290 807 1061 1144 380 377 1939 1807 377 1548 973 645 3294 1091 1040 1731 818 598 1763 923 1522 839 871 726 2689 449 221 2340 482 386 482 646 2309 2507 650 426 1911 425 437 5174 1596 825 1281 487 268 428 473 915 487 663 377 320 681 669 378 471 1244 1063 808 1766 447 650 1486 673 439 372 2176 1145 1837 596 308 2315 492 1138 616 1342 2424 412 371 738 587 436 654 401 324 1189 1875 553 347 569 2278 1827 1276 1589 1785 513 702 558 538 460 517 559 881 203 597 583 1068 2559 1543 565 2682 441 679 1860 457 493 513 582 719 456 1034
2020-09-15 220 432 513 398 665 876 300 998 2091 2271 640 931 998 690 472 1522 1237 8954 700 2205 1161 407 3514 1042 464 7642 549 541 2074 343 960 1684 451 1754 626 353 571 812 1887 1390 433 924 381 760 831 379 1414 989 837 498 778 2594 2309 563 327 374 778 783 499 1045 3903 1912 301 508 2141 665 670 778 331 1520 2158 730 753 1610 1980 283 564 494 289 484 1781 769 945 511 477 575 1543 588 388 479 300 343 523 832 524 1629 447 602 663 437 1150 649 832 361 1041 477 1073 417 905 1593 753 194 1292 967 636 524 1433 627 580 1449 978 633 449 779 799 767 889 1663 893 3626 1258 1757 954 5744 6149 417 1447 468 385 3495 1841 712 286 5399 438 1175 245 186 1089 369 691 1249 1054 378 576 492 2053 928 1725 149 671 266 441 293 809 1068 1155 381 378 1947 1813 379 1558 975 652 3315 1095 1047 1737 823 601 1788 927 1536 844 874 730 2725 456 222 2347 486 387 484 647 2347 2522 655 427 1923 430 439 5203 1601 828 1299 488 270 430 474 919 489 665 379 322 682 677 379 473 1257 1065 812 1772 451 654 1498 677 441 372 2187 1152 1843 598 309 2346 494 1141 619 1346 2464 414 372 740 591 438 656 402 325 1199 1883 555 349 570 2282 1834 1281 1600 1815 515 704 561 539 462 521 561 886 204 598 585 1075 2569 1551 569 2714 442 680 1869 458 497 515 586 722 457 1038

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.