COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-08

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	04-15	04-21	04-29	04-29	04-09	04-14	04-17	04-10	03-28	07-28	04-23	03-28	04-18	03-27	05-14	04-02	04-18	03-30	--	--	--	04-12	04-18	--	04-02	04-19	04-04	--	05-03	04-20	03-26	03-26	03-30	07-17	04-26	08-25	05-11	03-18	04-15	--	05-12	--	04-08	03-28	04-08	04-08	04-21	03-29	04-17	05-09	04-16	04-03	03-30	05-05	04-22	05-06	05-03	05-08	04-07	04-17	04-11	05-03	04-19	04-02	04-20	04-02	04-11	04-20	03-27	04-03	04-22	03-31	03-25	03-23	04-18	04-16	04-19	05-13	04-10	03-27	04-23	04-25	04-17	04-15	04-12	04-21	04-21	04-16	04-16	04-22	04-16	04-23	03-24	03-30	03-25	03-25	04-17	03-30	04-18	04-28	05-11	03-27	06-02	03-30	04-16	04-19	04-15	03-30	05-11	03-28	04-05	03-29	03-29	04-15	04-20	03-26	03-25	04-20	03-26	04-23	04-15	--	04-18	03-26	07-01	08-22	04-13	03-26	04-13	04-19	03-24	05-03	--	04-17	04-21	03-15	03-21	05-03	04-10	07-10	04-07	--	03-31	07-25	03-26	--	06-14	04-13	03-25	03-25	08-25	08-03	04-03	04-27	03-22	03-30	--	05-24	03-29	03-23	05-04	03-25	03-27	04-23	04-22	03-27	04-21	05-05	03-30	03-25	03-28	04-29	03-25	04-20	04-18	03-26	04-26	03-25	04-18	05-04	04-22	03-29	04-08	04-10	08-02	04-10	04-20	08-25	04-22	--	07-31	03-31	07-27	04-29	04-14	04-14	--	04-07	03-30	04-22	04-10	04-05	05-24	03-19	04-21	--	04-20	--	05-14	04-17	04-29	04-13	04-14	04-05	05-07	04-20	--	03-24	04-18	04-22	08-03	08-27	03-26	03-23	04-20	04-23	--	05-26	03-23	04-15	04-01	04-17	03-25	04-28	04-29	03-24	04-22	03-27	05-09	--	04-26	03-21	04-15	04-18	03-27	08-19	--	03-29	04-15	04-15	04-14	03-30	07-29	04-20	04-24	04-10	03-30	08-28	04-06	04-05	--	07-29	--	03-21	04-07	04-15	05-12	04-14	04-22	04-02	04-13	04-17	03-25	04-11	04-17	04-06	08-25	03-27	05-13	04-27	03-25	04-22	03-25	08-12	03-24	--	03-24	04-03	04-13	04-18	08-02	05-10	04-07	04-18	04-20	04-21	04-19	04-14	03-17	07-15	05-03	08-18	04-08	03-30	04-14	04-14	04-17	04-15	08-26	04-15	03-29	04-20	04-13	04-21
Peak daily increment	5	8	8	18	12	22	13	6	19	5	27	27	16	24	24	8	17	30				21	6		8	20	8		11	9	51	7	13	3	12	9	21	6	9		24		6	19	7	15	25	6	19	14	16	12	12	40	31	9	14	7	12	23	8	7	17	4	68	22	5	11	49	9	15	19	5	19	9	35	15	11	25	34	4	7	15	8	5	11	40	12	18	16	10	6	8	26	14	8	8	6	6	11	13	4	12	36	7	14	7	10	14	25	13	15	6	32	6	21	10	12	30	6	14		9	28	43	17	7	24	9	11	23	29		20	16	16	16	18	23	2	16		22	5	32		75	6	37	8	10	10	23	24	4	5		17	24	3	4	24	10	10	13	20	18	12	8	6	33	17	43	4	12	5	10	6	18	15	19	20	10	5	69	37	7	23	13		35	21	14	33	18	12		22	29	14	9	17	4	15	11		7		4	30	9	6	7	14	2	3		30	21	7	4	11	8	69	21	18		15	4	7	6	17	3	25	7	15	18	5	18		8	8	22	17	15	7		12	31	18	7	7	12	17	27	14	9	57	9	28		15		7	7	7	11	14	10	6	21	7	11	6	9	6	13	22	10	15	9	28	31	5	32		9	12	12	8	7	8	11	2	14	4	11	14	19	4	37	10	7	45	8	15	28	12	11	10	6	16	10	30
Days since peak	146	140	132	132	152	147	144	151	164	42	138	164	143	165	117	159	143	162				149	143		159	142	157		128	141	166	166	162	53	135	14	120	174	146		119		153	164	153	153	140	163	144	122	145	158	162	126	139	125	128	123	154	144	150	128	142	159	141	159	150	141	165	158	139	161	167	169	143	145	142	118	151	165	138	136	144	146	149	140	140	145	145	139	145	138	168	162	167	167	144	162	143	133	120	165	98	162	145	142	146	162	120	164	156	163	163	146	141	166	167	141	166	138	146		143	166	69	17	148	166	148	142	168	128		144	140	177	171	128	151	60	154		161	45	166		86	148	167	167	14	36	158	134	170	162		107	163	169	127	167	165	138	139	165	140	126	162	167	164	132	167	141	143	166	135	167	143	127	139	163	153	151	37	151	141	14	139		39	161	43	132	147	147		154	162	139	151	156	107	173	140		141		117	144	132	148	147	156	124	141		168	143	139	36	12	166	169	141	138		105	169	146	160	144	167	133	132	168	139	165	122		135	171	146	143	165	20		163	146	146	147	162	41	141	137	151	162	11	155	156		41		171	154	146	119	147	139	159	148	144	167	150	144	155	14	165	118	134	167	139	167	27	168		168	158	148	143	37	121	154	143	141	140	142	147	175	55	128	21	153	162	147	147	144	146	13	146	163	141	148	140
Last total	215	423	500	381	647	1376	867	294	953	2016	2230	631	912	990	679	450	1498	1218	7765	642	2038	1143	395	3043	509	984	445	6888	544	526	2022	333	936	1620	446	1716	614	342	532	735	1779	1331	418	896	372	751	822	373	1395	970	828	486	773	2513	2249	558	318	361	768	773	375	466	1023	235	3762	1838	295	502	2088	643	653	772	323	1486	283	2133	706	744	1541	1933	215	274	554	482	283	472	1767	740	935	498	472	227	547	1472	570	378	469	290	336	521	824	178	518	1523	438	593	249	653	421	1123	640	804	352	996	461	1012	414	862	1552	297	719	180	392	1219	956	604	507	1393	619	574	1399	972	574	742	443	729	754	740	883	1654	869	3304	1197	1690	949	5245	6038	411	1411	455	365	3252	1808	705	156	271	4845	417	1158	238	177	1067	235	362	677	1195	1027	370	546	485	1914	900	1633	143	659	259	427	274	798	233	1020	1089	375	369	1903	1768	365	1488	965	606	3197	1072	993	1699	788	589	1617	905	1439	810	450	856	246	705	295	2486	319	414	215	2291	461	380	464	641	120	152	2102	2418	623	422	1841	397	427	5002	1571	808	1183	480	262	419	467	889	123	724	476	654	369	313	671	627	371	455	1170	1047	791	1733	430	632	1416	652	428	369	2114	1108	1801	584	302	2141	484	1121	600	1315	2206	400	364	236	726	679	563	288	942	424	643	398	318	63	1130	1822	543	337	558	2243	1791	1241	1529	1610	502	686	544	526	453	498	549	78	854	194	588	566	1034	2484	1496	524	545	2511	435	667	1801	451	474	500	557	707	450	1017
Last daily increment	2	0	6	1	3	0	2	0	6	8	5	1	1	3	1	1	6	2	101	9	45	2	1	64	0	5	3	27	0	6	7	0	5	7	1	4	4	1	0	20	27	13	0	6	7	1	1	2	1	7	2	0	2	6	9	1	1	1	1	1	0	2	2	0	29	5	2	0	8	0	2	0	2	2	1	8	1	0	13	14	1	0	0	3	0	0	7	6	1	0	1	0	3	10	1	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	6	16	4	0	2	1	0	3	3	5	2	7	6	7	2	7	7	0	5	3	0	11	2	0	1	2	2	8	1	5	18	0	0	4	2	5	4	1	2	31	19	5	6	48	44	1	5	1	1	22	1	0	2	0	49	2	1	0	0	2	0	1	1	10	3	3	1	1	23	2	19	0	4	1	2	3	7	0	3	11	0	0	15	6	3	8	0	16	41	8	3	4	2	9	29	1	10	4	1	2	0	2	1	20	1	5	0	12	3	1	0	0	0	0	28	29	2	1	9	3	0	23	2	6	11	0	3	1	1	1	0	0	1	2	1	3	0	3	0	5	13	1	4	7	12	5	13	2	2	4	11	8	5	5	1	33	0	2	1	4	31	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	7	11	0	2	0	6	11	3	6	31	6	0	0	1	3	5	2	0	4	3	1	2	5	16	2	0	5	35	4	1	27	1	4	0	2	3	1	7
Last week	9	7	28	22	29	3	15	6	49	75	51	15	20	11	16	22	33	23	899	49	130	24	11	439	2	56	21	367	6	9	51	13	40	72	8	35	24	11	31	68	126	92	11	40	22	9	12	10	15	44	17	9	15	69	66	20	16	11	25	6	1	32	23	5	184	96	17	14	45	10	18	11	12	39	4	40	39	12	78	79	1	11	8	11	12	8	38	28	15	24	8	4	28	84	11	11	15	15	13	6	7	3	17	98	17	10	4	9	7	25	20	48	9	45	22	71	7	55	61	2	39	14	3	73	30	33	16	59	19	22	75	10	66	5	6	43	35	33	9	26	24	168	90	73	19	456	209	9	34	16	21	288	43	10	3	21	357	30	16	10	13	24	4	6	17	56	33	7	33	22	160	23	110	7	15	13	22	26	23	1	49	79	11	10	69	49	9	85	13	51	165	35	49	51	26	27	116	29	95	30	4	17	4	35	5	135	5	28	10	81	32	14	18	9	3	3	173	157	33	8	87	44	8	212	25	26	123	13	10	8	19	30	4	2	17	17	8	12	13	47	6	28	81	20	17	57	39	28	107	27	12	11	91	44	51	20	6	241	6	18	30	26	175	15	10	5	23	2	24	4	4	13	13	9	10	4	68	82	19	14	12	84	68	39	72	152	22	20	16	22	18	29	8	2	39	14	10	25	44	111	57	5	25	192	18	17	132	8	34	25	21	26	10	29
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	04-16	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	03-25	--	04-14	--	--	--	--	--	03-31	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment										47																		65						25		38																																																																																																								43				39		75						55																																				25																																	35																									44							31										30														25							28																53
Low between peaks										1																								1		1																																																																																																								1				0								3																																				2																																	2																									1							2																								1							1																2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-15

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Reigate and Banstead	Richmond upon Thames	Rochdale	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Telford and Wrekin	Test Valley	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-08	215	423	500	381	647	867	294	953	2016	2230	631	912	990	679	450	1498	1218	7765	642	2038	1143	395	3043	984	445	6888	544	526	2022	333	936	1620	446	1716	614	342	532	735	1779	1331	418	896	372	751	822	373	1395	970	828	486	773	2513	2249	558	318	361	768	773	466	1023	3762	1838	295	502	2088	643	653	772	323	1486	2133	706	744	1541	1933	274	554	482	283	472	1767	740	935	498	472	547	1472	570	378	469	290	336	521	824	518	1523	438	593	653	421	1123	640	804	352	996	461	1012	414	862	1552	719	180	1219	956	604	507	1393	619	574	1399	972	574	443	729	754	740	883	1654	869	3304	1197	1690	949	5245	6038	411	1411	455	365	3252	1808	705	271	4845	417	1158	238	177	1067	362	677	1195	1027	370	546	485	1914	900	1633	143	659	259	427	274	798	1020	1089	375	369	1903	1768	365	1488	965	606	3197	1072	993	1699	788	589	1617	905	1439	810	856	705	2486	414	215	2291	461	380	464	641	2102	2418	623	422	1841	397	427	5002	1571	808	1183	480	262	419	467	889	476	654	369	313	671	627	371	455	1170	1047	791	1733	430	632	1416	652	428	369	2114	1108	1801	584	302	2141	484	1121	600	1315	2206	400	364	726	563	424	643	398	318	1130	1822	543	337	558	2243	1791	1241	1529	1610	502	686	544	526	453	498	549	854	194	588	566	1034	2484	1496	545	2511	435	667	1801	451	474	500	557	707	450	1017
2020-09-09	216	424	506	383	652	868	295	959	2027	2236	634	915	991	681	453	1498	1222	7812	651	2057	1146	397	3043	996	448	6946	545	529	2029	335	941	1624	447	1722	621	344	539	750	1800	1341	420	897	375	752	824	374	1398	976	830	488	775	2533	2259	559	319	363	769	774	471	1027	3790	1849	296	503	2095	646	654	772	324	1488	2144	711	746	1553	1933	275	556	484	284	474	1771	744	937	499	473	551	1489	572	379	471	292	337	521	826	523	1541	440	594	655	423	1128	642	810	353	998	462	1022	414	868	1561	726	182	1229	957	606	509	1400	621	579	1404	974	586	444	736	760	745	884	1655	872	3349	1210	1699	950	5320	6063	413	1416	456	366	3280	1813	706	272	4871	419	1159	239	178	1070	363	679	1202	1031	371	548	487	1933	904	1650	144	663	260	428	277	801	1031	1103	376	370	1913	1775	366	1498	967	606	3221	1077	1001	1706	792	592	1640	909	1455	815	858	709	2486	423	215	2303	464	381	465	642	2157	2444	628	423	1856	401	429	5034	1575	812	1197	480	264	420	469	894	478	657	371	314	673	627	372	459	1182	1050	794	1741	437	635	1433	657	430	370	2128	1115	1809	588	303	2171	485	1124	601	1322	2248	402	365	728	567	426	645	399	319	1142	1833	545	338	560	2253	1799	1246	1533	1637	505	688	547	527	455	502	551	860	195	590	569	1040	2503	1499	549	2544	437	669	1823	452	478	501	561	708	451	1021
2020-09-10	216	426	511	385	656	870	296	964	2037	2241	636	918	993	682	456	1506	1226	7858	659	2078	1148	398	3101	1007	450	6994	546	531	2036	336	945	1628	448	1727	627	345	546	763	1821	1351	423	903	379	753	825	376	1401	982	832	489	776	2546	2270	559	321	365	770	776	475	1031	3818	1860	297	503	2102	650	654	772	324	1489	2152	714	747	1565	1943	276	557	486	285	475	1775	747	938	500	474	555	1505	575	381	473	293	338	522	828	527	1558	442	596	656	425	1132	645	816	355	1006	463	1032	416	874	1568	732	184	1240	958	608	511	1407	622	583	1408	975	597	444	744	768	749	885	1656	876	3390	1226	1708	951	5395	6086	414	1421	456	367	3309	1818	707	273	4897	420	1159	240	180	1073	364	682	1209	1036	373	551	489	1959	907	1666	145	667	261	429	280	803	1040	1117	377	372	1923	1781	367	1508	968	615	3242	1081	1009	1713	797	595	1662	912	1471	820	861	714	2502	427	216	2315	468	383	466	644	2199	2468	633	424	1871	405	430	5065	1579	815	1210	481	265	420	471	898	479	660	372	316	674	631	373	464	1193	1052	796	1748	444	639	1450	661	431	370	2142	1121	1817	592	304	2201	486	1127	604	1330	2279	405	366	730	570	427	646	400	320	1154	1844	547	338	562	2261	1806	1251	1546	1662	508	691	549	527	456	505	553	866	197	591	572	1047	2522	1502	553	2576	438	672	1844	454	482	502	565	709	452	1024
2020-09-11	217	427	517	387	661	871	296	970	2048	2246	639	921	994	684	459	1509	1229	7906	668	2103	1150	400	3132	1018	453	7036	547	533	2042	338	949	1633	449	1732	633	347	552	777	1841	1361	425	910	382	755	827	377	1404	988	835	491	778	2556	2280	560	322	367	771	777	480	1035	3846	1871	298	504	2109	653	655	773	325	1491	2159	718	749	1577	1953	276	559	488	285	477	1779	751	940	501	474	558	1522	577	382	474	294	339	522	829	531	1575	444	597	658	427	1137	647	822	356	1013	464	1042	417	881	1576	738	186	1250	960	610	514	1413	624	587	1413	976	608	445	751	774	753	886	1657	879	3418	1239	1717	951	5470	6109	416	1426	457	368	3338	1824	709	274	4922	422	1160	241	181	1076	365	684	1216	1040	374	553	491	1985	911	1682	146	671	263	430	283	805	1045	1130	378	373	1933	1788	368	1518	970	624	3264	1085	1017	1720	801	598	1684	915	1487	825	863	718	2521	429	216	2326	471	384	468	645	2243	2493	637	425	1887	409	432	5097	1583	818	1224	481	266	421	473	902	481	663	373	317	676	633	375	468	1204	1055	799	1756	451	642	1466	665	433	370	2155	1127	1825	596	305	2230	488	1129	605	1333	2310	407	368	733	574	429	648	401	322	1166	1854	549	339	565	2271	1813	1257	1564	1688	511	693	552	528	458	509	554	872	198	593	576	1053	2541	1505	557	2609	440	674	1865	455	486	503	569	710	454	1028
2020-09-12	218	428	522	389	665	872	297	976	2058	2252	641	923	996	686	463	1512	1233	7951	676	2124	1153	401	3152	1028	455	7067	548	536	2049	339	953	1636	449	1737	638	348	558	790	1860	1371	427	913	384	756	829	379	1407	994	837	492	780	2566	2290	560	323	369	772	778	484	1039	3873	1881	299	504	2115	657	656	774	326	1493	2165	721	751	1589	1964	277	561	490	286	479	1783	754	942	502	475	562	1538	579	384	476	296	340	523	830	535	1592	446	598	659	429	1141	649	827	357	1021	465	1052	417	887	1584	745	188	1260	961	613	516	1420	626	591	1417	977	618	446	758	777	758	887	1658	882	3455	1251	1725	952	5544	6131	418	1430	457	369	3368	1829	710	276	4946	424	1160	242	183	1079	366	686	1223	1044	376	555	493	2013	915	1698	146	675	264	431	285	808	1054	1143	379	374	1942	1794	369	1528	971	630	3285	1090	1024	1726	805	600	1705	918	1502	830	865	722	2526	429	217	2338	475	385	469	646	2263	2516	642	425	1902	413	433	5127	1587	821	1238	482	268	422	474	907	482	665	375	318	677	633	376	472	1215	1057	802	1763	457	645	1481	669	435	371	2168	1133	1833	599	306	2259	489	1132	607	1334	2339	409	369	735	578	431	650	402	323	1178	1865	551	339	567	2279	1820	1262	1570	1712	514	696	554	529	460	512	556	878	199	594	579	1059	2560	1508	561	2641	441	676	1885	456	490	504	572	711	455	1031
2020-09-13	219	429	527	391	669	874	298	981	2068	2257	644	926	997	688	466	1516	1237	7996	684	2145	1155	403	3201	1038	457	7097	549	538	2055	341	957	1640	450	1742	644	350	564	803	1880	1380	429	915	387	757	830	380	1409	999	839	494	781	2576	2300	561	324	371	773	780	489	1042	3900	1892	300	505	2122	660	657	774	326	1495	2170	724	752	1600	1970	278	562	492	287	481	1786	758	943	503	476	565	1553	582	385	477	297	341	523	831	539	1609	448	600	661	431	1145	651	833	358	1023	466	1062	417	893	1591	751	190	1270	962	615	518	1426	627	595	1421	978	627	446	766	784	762	888	1659	885	3482	1265	1734	952	5619	6152	420	1435	458	370	3398	1834	711	277	4971	425	1161	243	184	1081	367	689	1229	1048	377	557	495	2040	919	1714	147	678	265	432	288	810	1060	1156	379	375	1952	1800	370	1538	973	637	3306	1094	1032	1732	809	603	1727	921	1517	834	867	726	2534	432	217	2349	478	386	470	647	2290	2540	646	426	1917	417	435	5157	1591	824	1252	482	269	422	476	911	484	668	376	319	679	634	377	476	1227	1059	804	1770	463	647	1497	673	436	371	2182	1139	1840	603	307	2288	490	1135	609	1341	2367	411	370	737	582	433	651	403	324	1189	1875	552	340	569	2288	1826	1267	1578	1737	517	698	557	530	462	515	558	884	200	596	582	1065	2578	1510	565	2673	443	678	1904	457	494	505	576	711	456	1034
2020-09-14	219	430	532	392	674	875	299	986	2078	2262	646	929	998	690	469	1523	1240	8041	693	2173	1157	404	3249	1049	460	7142	550	540	2062	342	961	1644	451	1747	649	352	570	817	1900	1390	431	927	390	758	832	381	1412	1005	841	496	783	2590	2310	561	325	373	774	781	493	1046	3927	1902	301	505	2128	664	657	776	327	1497	2178	728	754	1612	1988	279	564	494	287	482	1790	761	945	504	477	569	1569	584	386	479	299	342	524	831	542	1626	450	601	662	433	1149	654	838	360	1033	467	1072	418	899	1599	757	192	1280	964	617	520	1433	629	599	1425	980	637	447	773	789	766	889	1659	888	3517	1279	1742	952	5694	6174	421	1439	458	371	3428	1839	712	278	4995	427	1161	244	185	1084	368	691	1236	1052	378	558	497	2059	922	1730	148	682	266	433	290	812	1066	1170	380	376	1961	1806	370	1547	974	648	3327	1098	1040	1739	813	605	1748	925	1533	839	869	730	2558	435	217	2360	482	387	471	648	2325	2564	651	427	1932	421	436	5188	1595	827	1266	483	271	423	478	915	485	670	377	320	681	635	378	480	1238	1062	807	1778	469	650	1512	677	438	371	2195	1146	1848	606	308	2317	491	1138	611	1342	2407	413	371	739	586	434	653	403	325	1201	1885	554	340	571	2297	1833	1272	1590	1762	520	701	559	531	464	519	560	890	201	597	585	1071	2597	1513	569	2705	445	680	1924	458	497	506	580	712	457	1037
2020-09-15	220	432	537	394	678	876	300	992	2088	2268	649	931	1000	691	472	1527	1244	8087	702	2206	1160	406	3377	1059	462	7183	551	542	2068	343	965	1648	452	1752	654	353	576	831	1920	1400	433	932	393	759	833	383	1415	1010	843	497	784	2598	2320	562	327	375	774	782	498	1050	3955	1913	302	506	2135	668	658	776	328	1499	2184	731	756	1624	1999	280	566	496	288	484	1794	765	946	505	477	573	1585	586	388	480	300	343	524	831	546	1643	452	602	663	435	1153	656	843	361	1040	467	1083	419	905	1607	763	194	1290	965	620	522	1439	630	603	1430	981	648	448	780	792	770	890	1660	892	3546	1295	1751	953	5770	6196	423	1444	459	372	3458	1844	713	279	5020	428	1162	245	187	1087	369	693	1242	1056	380	560	499	2081	926	1746	149	686	267	434	293	814	1070	1183	381	378	1971	1812	371	1557	976	658	3348	1102	1048	1745	818	608	1771	928	1549	844	872	734	2577	441	218	2371	485	389	472	649	2355	2587	656	428	1947	426	438	5218	1599	831	1280	483	272	423	479	919	487	673	379	321	682	638	379	485	1249	1064	809	1785	476	653	1528	681	440	371	2209	1152	1856	610	309	2347	492	1140	613	1346	2434	415	372	741	589	436	654	404	326	1213	1896	556	340	573	2305	1840	1277	1598	1788	523	703	562	532	466	522	561	896	202	599	588	1077	2615	1516	573	2738	446	682	1944	459	501	507	584	713	458	1040

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-09 to 2020-09-15

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Reigate and Banstead	Richmond upon Thames	Rochdale	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Telford and Wrekin	Test Valley	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-08	215	423	500	381	647	867	294	953	2016	2230	631	912	990	679	450	1498	1218	7765	642	2038	1143	395	3043	984	445	6888	544	526	2022	333	936	1620	446	1716	614	342	532	735	1779	1331	418	896	372	751	822	373	1395	970	828	486	773	2513	2249	558	318	361	768	773	466	1023	3762	1838	295	502	2088	643	653	772	323	1486	2133	706	744	1541	1933	274	554	482	283	472	1767	740	935	498	472	547	1472	570	378	469	290	336	521	824	518	1523	438	593	653	421	1123	640	804	352	996	461	1012	414	862	1552	719	180	1219	956	604	507	1393	619	574	1399	972	574	443	729	754	740	883	1654	869	3304	1197	1690	949	5245	6038	411	1411	455	365	3252	1808	705	271	4845	417	1158	238	177	1067	362	677	1195	1027	370	546	485	1914	900	1633	143	659	259	427	274	798	1020	1089	375	369	1903	1768	365	1488	965	606	3197	1072	993	1699	788	589	1617	905	1439	810	856	705	2486	414	215	2291	461	380	464	641	2102	2418	623	422	1841	397	427	5002	1571	808	1183	480	262	419	467	889	476	654	369	313	671	627	371	455	1170	1047	791	1733	430	632	1416	652	428	369	2114	1108	1801	584	302	2141	484	1121	600	1315	2206	400	364	726	563	424	643	398	318	1130	1822	543	337	558	2243	1791	1241	1529	1610	502	686	544	526	453	498	549	854	194	588	566	1034	2484	1496	545	2511	435	667	1801	451	474	500	557	707	450	1017
2020-09-09	216	424	505	383	651	869	294	959	2029	2237	633	915	991	681	454	1503	1222	7883	649	2062	1146	398	3112	993	448	6951	545	529	2030	335	941	1632	447	1721	619	343	537	750	1799	1346	420	902	376	752	824	374	1397	976	830	487	774	2526	2259	561	319	363	773	774	471	1026	3789	1851	297	504	2095	645	656	774	324	1493	2141	709	745	1553	1946	275	556	484	284	473	1773	745	938	499	473	551	1486	572	381	472	292	338	522	825	523	1539	440	594	655	423	1128	642	811	354	1003	464	1020	415	872	1563	726	182	1230	961	607	509	1401	621	578	1407	974	585	444	735	760	745	885	1658	872	3339	1212	1702	953	5326	6074	412	1417	457	367	3292	1814	708	275	4895	421	1161	239	178	1070	363	679	1204	1032	372	550	488	1936	904	1650	144	662	261	431	277	802	1025	1102	376	371	1915	1775	367	1501	966	616	3227	1077	1000	1705	792	594	1640	909	1453	815	858	710	2512	419	216	2306	465	382	467	643	2139	2441	627	423	1854	402	428	5032	1575	812	1201	481	264	421	469	893	478	657	370	315	672	633	372	461	1183	1049	794	1744	438	636	1434	656	430	371	2129	1115	1811	587	303	2171	486	1123	603	1320	2244	402	366	729	566	426	645	400	319	1143	1834	545	339	560	2258	1801	1247	1539	1639	505	688	546	528	456	503	551	860	196	590	569	1040	2502	1501	550	2544	437	669	1823	453	477	502	561	711	452	1022
2020-09-10	217	426	508	386	655	870	295	968	2042	2243	634	918	993	683	458	1509	1225	8007	655	2075	1149	399	3186	1001	451	7015	547	531	2038	336	945	1642	448	1727	621	345	543	760	1815	1357	422	907	378	754	826	375	1400	980	831	489	775	2539	2269	562	321	365	775	776	476	1030	3816	1863	298	506	2103	648	658	775	326	1499	2147	713	747	1564	1955	277	557	485	285	475	1776	749	939	501	474	555	1497	574	382	473	293	339	523	827	525	1555	442	596	657	425	1132	644	816	355	1010	467	1030	416	880	1571	731	184	1241	963	612	512	1408	624	580	1415	975	592	445	742	768	750	887	1660	876	3370	1223	1714	954	5403	6098	414	1423	459	370	3329	1820	709	278	4941	425	1165	240	180	1073	364	681	1212	1036	373	556	491	1958	908	1668	145	664	262	433	280	805	1034	1113	377	372	1923	1782	369	1513	968	622	3248	1081	1009	1713	797	597	1657	912	1468	821	861	715	2532	425	217	2318	468	383	471	644	2167	2460	633	424	1866	407	430	5062	1580	815	1219	482	266	423	471	897	482	659	371	316	674	638	373	464	1196	1052	797	1751	442	640	1449	660	432	372	2141	1122	1818	590	305	2200	487	1127	607	1325	2269	404	367	732	570	428	647	400	320	1153	1844	547	341	563	2268	1809	1254	1551	1661	508	691	548	532	457	507	553	864	198	592	573	1046	2517	1510	554	2574	438	672	1837	454	481	505	565	714	453	1026
2020-09-11	218	427	510	389	659	872	296	974	2056	2249	636	921	994	684	461	1513	1228	8135	661	2092	1152	401	3254	1010	454	7073	547	533	2046	338	950	1653	449	1733	624	347	548	769	1832	1367	425	914	380	755	828	377	1403	984	833	491	776	2550	2278	563	322	367	778	777	481	1033	3841	1875	299	508	2111	651	661	777	327	1505	2151	718	749	1574	1965	278	559	487	287	478	1779	754	941	505	475	559	1509	577	384	476	295	340	523	828	526	1570	444	597	658	427	1136	646	821	356	1018	469	1040	417	888	1577	737	186	1253	965	617	514	1415	625	582	1424	976	599	446	750	775	754	888	1662	879	3390	1232	1726	955	5478	6123	415	1429	461	373	3367	1824	710	281	4988	429	1168	241	181	1077	365	683	1220	1040	374	563	492	1979	912	1683	145	666	263	436	283	807	1040	1123	378	374	1931	1789	372	1523	970	628	3269	1085	1017	1718	802	600	1675	916	1482	826	864	719	2556	429	219	2329	472	385	474	645	2198	2482	638	425	1878	412	432	5091	1584	819	1237	484	267	425	473	902	484	660	373	317	676	643	375	467	1208	1055	800	1758	446	643	1463	663	434	373	2153	1129	1824	593	306	2230	489	1130	610	1330	2294	407	368	734	574	430	648	401	321	1161	1854	549	343	564	2278	1816	1260	1567	1682	510	694	551	534	459	510	554	870	199	593	578	1053	2531	1519	557	2609	439	674	1852	455	484	508	569	717	454	1029
2020-09-12	219	429	513	391	662	874	297	980	2064	2256	637	924	995	686	464	1517	1231	8261	666	2104	1154	402	3321	1018	457	7127	548	535	2053	339	953	1662	450	1739	626	348	554	778	1848	1377	427	917	382	756	829	377	1406	987	834	493	777	2560	2287	565	324	369	780	779	486	1036	3870	1886	300	509	2118	655	664	778	329	1510	2155	721	750	1585	1976	280	560	489	288	479	1782	758	943	508	476	563	1519	580	385	477	296	341	524	829	527	1585	445	599	660	430	1140	647	826	358	1025	472	1048	417	894	1583	742	187	1263	969	622	517	1421	627	584	1432	977	606	447	757	780	758	889	1663	883	3417	1242	1735	956	5551	6145	416	1433	464	376	3403	1829	711	283	5035	432	1169	242	183	1080	366	685	1227	1044	376	567	493	2001	916	1698	146	668	264	439	286	809	1048	1135	379	375	1938	1795	374	1532	971	633	3289	1089	1024	1723	807	602	1690	919	1496	831	866	723	2572	432	220	2337	475	386	477	646	2218	2501	643	425	1891	416	433	5120	1588	822	1255	485	268	426	474	906	485	662	374	319	678	647	376	471	1221	1057	803	1765	451	647	1476	667	435	374	2164	1135	1830	595	307	2259	490	1132	613	1335	2320	409	370	736	578	432	651	402	322	1170	1863	551	345	566	2287	1823	1265	1575	1702	512	696	553	536	461	514	556	875	201	594	580	1058	2544	1528	561	2634	441	676	1862	456	488	511	573	720	455	1033
2020-09-13	219	430	515	394	664	875	298	985	2070	2262	639	927	997	687	468	1521	1233	8387	671	2116	1157	404	3385	1026	460	7177	548	538	2060	341	957	1671	450	1744	628	350	560	787	1865	1386	429	920	383	758	830	378	1409	990	836	494	778	2570	2296	566	325	371	781	780	491	1039	3889	1898	301	510	2126	658	666	779	330	1516	2158	725	752	1595	1980	281	561	491	289	480	1784	761	945	510	476	567	1529	582	386	479	297	342	524	831	529	1601	446	600	662	432	1144	649	831	359	1030	475	1057	418	900	1588	747	189	1273	972	627	520	1428	629	585	1440	978	613	448	764	786	762	890	1665	886	3434	1253	1741	957	5614	6162	417	1438	466	380	3439	1834	713	285	5082	436	1171	243	184	1083	367	687	1235	1048	377	570	495	2023	920	1709	147	669	265	441	289	811	1054	1144	380	376	1946	1802	376	1543	972	638	3310	1093	1031	1728	812	605	1706	923	1510	836	869	726	2584	436	221	2346	479	387	480	647	2238	2517	647	426	1903	421	435	5149	1593	825	1275	486	270	427	475	910	487	664	376	320	679	651	377	474	1234	1060	806	1769	455	650	1488	671	437	374	2174	1141	1836	598	307	2289	490	1135	616	1340	2344	411	371	739	583	434	652	403	323	1180	1872	554	346	567	2291	1831	1270	1583	1726	514	699	556	539	462	518	557	879	203	595	582	1064	2558	1536	564	2660	442	678	1875	457	491	513	577	722	457	1036
2020-09-14	220	432	517	396	667	877	299	993	2079	2268	640	930	998	689	470	1526	1236	8520	676	2132	1160	406	3447	1033	463	7233	549	540	2068	342	961	1680	451	1750	630	351	566	796	1881	1396	432	927	385	759	832	379	1412	994	837	496	778	2583	2306	567	327	373	783	782	496	1042	3908	1909	302	512	2134	662	669	781	331	1521	2162	728	754	1606	1994	283	563	493	290	482	1786	765	946	511	477	571	1541	585	388	480	299	343	525	831	530	1617	448	601	663	435	1148	650	836	361	1037	477	1066	418	909	1595	753	191	1283	975	633	522	1434	631	587	1448	980	619	449	771	793	766	890	1667	890	3454	1263	1750	957	5688	6181	418	1443	468	383	3476	1839	714	288	5130	439	1173	244	186	1086	368	689	1243	1052	378	573	497	2040	924	1721	148	671	266	443	292	814	1061	1153	381	378	1954	1808	378	1554	973	643	3330	1096	1040	1735	818	607	1721	926	1524	842	871	731	2602	443	221	2354	483	388	483	649	2257	2534	651	427	1915	426	437	5179	1597	828	1293	487	271	429	476	915	488	666	378	322	681	653	378	476	1247	1063	809	1774	459	653	1503	674	439	375	2185	1148	1842	600	308	2320	492	1138	620	1345	2367	413	372	741	587	436	654	404	324	1192	1880	556	347	569	2297	1838	1276	1593	1747	516	702	558	541	464	522	559	883	204	597	584	1070	2569	1545	568	2690	443	680	1886	458	495	515	582	725	458	1040
2020-09-15	221	433	520	398	669	878	300	1001	2094	2274	641	933	999	691	473	1529	1238	8657	681	2148	1163	408	3526	1042	465	7292	549	543	2075	344	964	1690	452	1756	632	353	572	806	1898	1406	435	931	387	760	833	381	1414	997	838	498	779	2594	2315	568	328	376	785	783	501	1046	3926	1921	303	513	2142	665	671	782	332	1527	2166	731	755	1617	2001	285	565	494	291	484	1789	770	948	513	478	575	1552	588	389	481	300	344	525	832	532	1632	449	603	665	437	1152	651	840	362	1044	480	1075	419	916	1600	758	192	1294	977	638	525	1440	632	588	1456	981	626	450	779	799	771	892	1668	893	3480	1274	1759	958	5757	6200	419	1449	470	386	3508	1844	714	290	5178	443	1175	245	187	1089	370	692	1251	1057	380	576	498	2060	928	1734	149	673	267	445	295	816	1068	1164	382	379	1962	1815	381	1565	975	647	3351	1100	1047	1741	823	610	1735	929	1539	847	874	734	2620	450	222	2361	487	389	486	649	2283	2549	656	428	1928	431	439	5209	1601	831	1310	489	272	431	477	919	489	667	379	323	683	658	379	479	1260	1065	812	1780	463	657	1517	678	441	376	2197	1155	1848	602	309	2351	494	1141	623	1349	2392	415	373	743	591	438	656	405	325	1202	1888	558	349	570	2302	1845	1281	1603	1767	518	704	561	542	466	525	561	889	206	598	586	1076	2579	1554	571	2721	444	682	1898	459	498	517	586	728	459	1044

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

2020-10-13

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-08 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-08