COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-10-08

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	04-15	--	--	04-29	--	04-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-27	03-27	05-14	--	--	09-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-02	--	--	--	05-03	--	03-26	09-27	--	--	04-26	08-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-08	04-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	04-17	--	--	09-16	--	--	--	--	04-20	03-27	--	--	03-31	--	--	--	--	--	09-27	--	--	--	09-27	04-17	--	--	--	--	--	04-16	04-22	09-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-22	04-18	04-28	05-11	--	09-27	--	--	09-27	04-15	09-27	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	09-27	--	03-25	--	--	--	09-27	--	04-18	--	07-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	04-17	04-21	--	--	--	04-10	09-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	04-27	09-27	--	--	--	09-24	--	--	03-25	--	04-23	04-22	--	--	--	--	09-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-04	04-22	--	04-08	--	08-02	09-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-29	--	--	--	04-07	--	--	--	04-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-05	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-20	--	--	--	--	--	04-28	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	03-27	09-26	--	--	--	--	09-27	03-30	--	--	--	09-27	03-30	--	--	04-05	--	--	--	--	04-07	--	--	--	--	--	04-08	--	09-27	--	--	04-06	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-19	04-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-16	--	--	--	09-27	--
Peak daily increment	5			18		22							20	24	24			24							8				11		52	10			12	8										15	25										14			23			31					11	49			18						12				15	15						18	15	12							98	6	11	13		27			15	7	10	14						32		10				40		9		43							29		20	16				23	47									37					24	6				18			24		10	13					65										15	19		10		68	95								33				22				17												14						7								19						25			18						59		15	33					20	7				25	9			28					7						21		17			6																					11	14											10				19
Days since peak	176			162		177							11	195	147			11							189				158		196	11			165	44										183	170										158			174			22					171	195			191						11				11	174						175	169	11							16	173	163	150		11			11	176	11	150						11		197				11		173		99							158		174	170				181	11									197					164	11				14			197		168	169					11										157	169		183		67	12								162				184				186												186						169								18						163			169						12		195	12					11	192				11	192			186					184						183		11			185																					172	177											175				11
Last total	281	607	822	506	1020	1473	1094	367	1482	2956	3324	1045	1225	1133	915	809	1881	1600	14731	1008	3490	1857	614	6181	586	1801	602	11705	682	642	2774	486	1405	2511	545	2209	889	549	1097	2006	3708	2468	601	1355	576	933	1006	530	1753	1633	1058	658	994	3887	3637	807	432	532	1353	968	501	605	1685	327	6941	3156	581	612	2728	901	1153	900	476	2132	411	3344	1009	820	2356	2900	281	413	697	770	439	647	2706	984	1137	587	574	299	871	2181	859	508	796	1205	414	615	886	276	905	3062	899	780	301	790	641	1597	868	2239	634	1415	699	1673	533	1407	2185	410	1348	281	507	1818	1105	884	882	2133	890	762	2109	1196	1418	847	505	1228	1080	918	1016	2202	1230	5985	3725	2374	1668	12871	7944	491	1946	677	631	11414	2357	848	212	404	12630	659	1404	331	286	1378	297	433	829	2111	1402	497	718	990	5904	1286	2513	214	1007	611	614	476	1275	283	1299	2534	505	578	2360	3616	565	5874	1263	909	5560	1561	1968	2069	1143	906	3103	1119	2506	1381	613	1034	626	1233	458	4727	401	1024	284	3761	801	551	1052	793	211	272	4630	3915	921	504	4769	701	591	10237	2169	1210	2142	634	416	645	689	1335	191	821	785	952	494	434	831	1254	481	779	2579	1345	1027	2343	611	980	3357	1061	611	476	4002	2295	2411	840	421	4638	644	1385	763	1524	4081	552	489	367	1033	863	732	379	1025	638	865	538	489	101	1968	3557	709	511	729	3858	2921	1886	2230	3464	783	897	768	679	598	686	726	119	1779	421	703	759	1521	5235	1981	677	913	5377	623	883	2672	670	594	711	815	1178	684	2050
Last daily increment	2	5	20	2	25	15	24	7	28	60	93	30	17	10	17	34	14	16	312	33	77	38	13	112	3	55	9	255	7	6	34	6	31	83	4	15	16	11	33	50	91	65	24	21	18	13	11	6	15	59	18	15	18	78	91	23	13	12	37	7	7	9	25	12	248	87	9	6	30	22	41	5	16	33	10	62	31	11	51	55	9	9	8	16	13	9	52	13	17	2	13	8	22	49	16	7	35	69	10	2	3	7	16	45	61	13	3	7	3	16	11	54	15	28	15	40	8	27	32	6	21	7	3	34	5	7	21	33	22	10	40	12	36	8	6	23	21	14	5	26	22	143	163	29	69	420	99	7	20	8	14	452	32	7	3	9	325	18	14	2	7	20	8	6	12	67	39	8	10	27	183	22	31	1	27	40	7	23	34	3	15	76	6	22	49	75	20	387	22	13	104	43	60	24	19	30	57	17	60	40	11	15	20	32	9	109	7	25	4	82	16	6	48	9	8	9	140	69	25	3	159	15	8	252	33	19	43	10	16	15	12	38	4	8	21	14	9	10	5	26	7	29	58	18	13	25	6	18	109	25	14	5	119	100	37	15	7	100	15	20	17	14	86	12	6	11	12	13	6	5	3	18	12	6	17	5	32	99	10	5	13	101	59	37	48	92	21	11	16	14	17	10	10	6	69	16	8	13	30	168	42	15	22	159	9	16	47	9	2	6	21	23	8	66
Last week	16	60	103	24	130	44	106	37	146	348	505	175	105	66	94	162	127	123	1731	116	502	249	79	715	32	393	60	1436	55	45	221	49	200	439	34	187	106	67	280	422	576	435	88	170	79	68	73	46	111	265	99	63	102	518	539	122	43	81	241	86	44	46	159	49	1348	442	73	47	208	105	179	38	63	232	65	494	146	43	243	396	38	69	65	125	67	69	367	92	83	21	53	29	160	225	90	54	146	449	31	35	19	42	130	458	253	74	17	59	46	161	89	448	92	156	95	236	38	216	237	44	205	43	25	185	58	88	141	234	105	81	229	79	243	48	23	161	127	68	61	195	147	869	918	235	344	2674	484	32	170	77	83	2820	161	62	29	47	2291	84	94	36	36	126	33	29	64	351	153	71	58	248	1385	161	252	31	156	182	82	74	197	30	92	507	43	108	199	526	99	2599	85	89	775	198	317	132	127	130	430	93	319	248	53	79	153	228	40	742	32	182	32	579	94	56	295	57	53	46	838	359	80	22	1070	94	72	2290	204	124	292	65	69	99	77	177	26	40	151	138	46	56	76	242	41	120	337	110	72	172	67	108	644	146	75	31	712	534	196	113	40	702	70	104	69	91	589	64	33	65	98	116	77	39	28	99	82	61	83	15	251	684	77	59	64	634	353	209	265	615	124	76	95	79	57	76	63	24	417	65	47	65	192	1043	196	68	152	869	69	79	249	76	25	58	103	158	80	440
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-30	--	--	07-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																		29			20							65								38																		39											73																																																																																	75	79												24																																																																																							43																	27
Low between peaks																		1																		1																																																																																																																											0																																																																																							1

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-09 to 2020-10-15

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-08	281	607	822	506	1020	1473	1094	367	1482	2956	3324	1045	1225	1133	915	809	1881	1600	14731	1008	3490	1857	614	6181	586	1801	602	11705	682	642	2774	486	1405	2511	545	2209	889	549	1097	2006	3708	2468	601	1355	576	933	1006	530	1753	1633	1058	658	994	3887	3637	807	432	532	1353	968	501	605	1685	327	6941	3156	581	612	2728	901	1153	900	476	2132	411	3344	1009	820	2356	2900	281	413	697	770	439	647	2706	984	1137	587	574	299	871	2181	859	508	796	1205	414	615	886	276	905	3062	899	780	301	790	641	1597	868	2239	634	1415	699	1673	533	1407	2185	410	1348	281	507	1818	1105	884	882	2133	890	762	2109	1196	1418	847	505	1228	1080	918	1016	2202	1230	5985	3725	2374	1668	12871	7944	491	1946	677	631	11414	2357	848	212	404	12630	659	1404	331	286	1378	297	433	829	2111	1402	497	718	990	5904	1286	2513	214	1007	611	614	476	1275	283	1299	2534	505	578	2360	3616	565	5874	1263	909	5560	1561	1968	2069	1143	906	3103	1119	2506	1381	613	1034	626	1233	458	4727	401	1024	284	3761	801	551	1052	793	211	272	4630	3915	921	504	4769	701	591	10237	2169	1210	2142	634	416	645	689	1335	191	821	785	952	494	434	831	1254	481	779	2579	1345	1027	2343	611	980	3357	1061	611	476	4002	2295	2411	840	421	4638	644	1385	763	1524	4081	552	489	367	1033	863	732	379	1025	638	865	538	489	101	1968	3557	709	511	729	3858	2921	1886	2230	3464	783	897	768	679	598	686	726	119	1779	421	703	759	1521	5235	1981	677	913	5377	623	883	2672	670	594	711	815	1178	684	2050
2020-10-09	283	611	843	511	1042	1483	1094	375	1490	3060	3419	1067	1243	1145	931	844	1899	1608	15030	1021	3556	1891	624	6292	590	1844	615	12080	690	644	2812	495	1428	2644	551	2235	906	551	1140	2007	3810	2550	617	1356	593	942	1010	530	1758	1679	1078	670	1013	4018	3739	832	441	549	1383	982	507	612	1712	337	7164	3228	587	622	2769	923	1189	901	488	2167	422	3348	1048	827	2405	2976	289	421	705	777	444	647	2803	999	1149	588	583	300	896	2252	885	514	826	1290	421	621	886	283	911	3141	955	790	303	793	650	1617	879	2270	650	1456	713	1737	538	1407	2219	414	1377	290	511	1857	1112	900	903	2157	915	775	2116	1210	1471	855	508	1242	1080	935	1024	2234	1259	6265	3907	2399	1754	13350	8034	497	1975	681	646	11870	2380	859	217	420	13260	677	1421	338	294	1398	303	438	839	2213	1432	510	727	1019	5904	1298	2550	222	1040	640	618	492	1310	288	1316	2633	511	585	2403	3703	582	5989	1277	920	5686	1599	2048	2093	1150	932	3178	1131	2574	1419	621	1048	634	1233	472	4849	409	1052	285	3827	814	558	1105	804	221	281	4734	3990	955	507	4769	709	597	10390	2197	1235	2142	644	430	662	700	1371	195	828	805	961	499	445	841	1290	490	804	2634	1355	1036	2371	633	995	3441	1112	625	479	4105	2426	2437	856	426	4777	644	1405	777	1540	4189	552	494	377	1051	876	740	383	1030	659	877	538	504	105	2002	3666	726	514	745	3953	2987	1960	2288	3526	799	916	784	694	609	691	735	125	1864	444	711	772	1584	5349	2024	691	922	5524	651	906	2695	670	598	714	833	1239	688	2143
2020-10-10	285	614	863	516	1064	1493	1101	383	1505	3111	3513	1088	1260	1157	945	877	1917	1614	15330	1033	3623	1926	633	6401	593	1899	632	12320	698	647	2850	504	1448	2756	557	2261	921	557	1183	2049	3888	2633	635	1367	608	950	1014	533	1763	1721	1090	680	1031	4099	3841	856	449	565	1412	996	511	618	1738	346	7373	3298	593	632	2809	944	1225	904	498	2201	432	3387	1076	834	2452	3040	296	430	712	791	454	649	2856	1009	1162	590	591	303	920	2295	904	522	858	1377	427	627	888	288	919	3219	1008	800	305	795	658	1637	889	2338	666	1484	726	1773	543	1423	2244	419	1405	298	515	1890	1118	917	922	2183	931	788	2128	1224	1519	862	510	1258	1087	945	1032	2266	1286	6450	4066	2426	1801	13840	8102	503	2004	684	661	12330	2407	869	221	428	13610	694	1438	345	300	1418	307	443	849	2293	1459	523	736	1048	5970	1325	2587	231	1075	669	623	507	1345	293	1331	2734	516	598	2442	3790	599	6356	1294	930	5811	1637	2101	2115	1158	956	3250	1143	2643	1457	628	1061	644	1243	486	4950	417	1083	290	3897	825	564	1160	814	231	289	4823	4036	969	510	4815	717	603	10560	2224	1260	2153	654	443	674	711	1406	199	834	828	972	505	455	850	1326	498	826	2687	1365	1045	2399	652	1008	3536	1158	638	483	4221	2559	2454	872	431	4913	646	1423	790	1553	4294	561	499	387	1068	889	749	387	1036	680	890	544	515	108	2035	3760	741	517	758	4022	3053	2013	2345	3611	823	934	800	703	619	695	744	130	1937	466	719	784	1628	5478	2055	697	929	5653	663	922	2725	677	602	717	851	1282	693	2237
2020-10-11	287	617	884	520	1085	1502	1102	390	1518	3174	3610	1115	1278	1168	960	904	1935	1622	15640	1044	3691	1962	646	6510	596	1955	643	12560	706	651	2887	513	1467	2861	563	2287	928	562	1226	2070	3963	2718	653	1380	625	958	1019	537	1769	1764	1102	691	1047	4177	3944	881	458	582	1442	1009	515	624	1764	356	7592	3370	600	641	2849	966	1262	910	509	2237	441	3439	1102	841	2500	3114	303	438	720	805	464	653	2906	1018	1174	591	599	307	944	2333	925	528	889	1466	433	633	890	297	926	3298	1062	811	308	798	667	1658	899	2398	682	1506	740	1819	547	1439	2264	425	1433	307	520	1911	1124	934	939	2209	948	800	2150	1238	1568	870	513	1274	1087	955	1040	2298	1314	6602	4224	2454	1847	14330	8167	508	2033	688	676	12820	2433	879	225	437	13910	710	1455	352	307	1438	312	448	859	2355	1485	534	744	1077	6052	1348	2624	239	1100	703	627	522	1381	297	1347	2838	521	616	2481	3876	616	6764	1303	942	5937	1675	2140	2138	1165	979	3325	1155	2713	1497	635	1074	656	1251	499	5054	425	1118	294	3972	837	574	1217	825	241	298	4898	4085	983	513	4874	725	610	10740	2252	1284	2171	663	456	684	722	1442	203	840	852	982	511	466	860	1361	506	849	2741	1378	1054	2427	669	1020	3627	1203	651	486	4325	2706	2476	888	436	5046	650	1443	803	1568	4400	571	504	397	1084	901	758	391	1041	700	902	546	524	111	2069	3871	756	521	767	4100	3119	2065	2402	3684	840	952	816	715	629	701	753	134	2010	488	727	796	1664	5605	2095	706	936	5792	677	932	2749	681	606	720	868	1325	697	2335
2020-10-12	289	621	905	524	1107	1511	1111	398	1532	3246	3706	1146	1295	1180	974	933	1953	1629	15940	1055	3760	1999	659	6616	599	2022	654	12870	714	659	2925	522	1486	2926	568	2313	945	573	1269	2111	4092	2803	672	1402	641	965	1023	543	1774	1805	1120	702	1064	4270	4048	906	465	598	1471	1023	521	630	1789	366	7862	3441	606	650	2888	987	1300	920	519	2272	451	3494	1137	848	2548	3204	310	446	728	816	475	658	2961	1037	1186	593	607	310	968	2376	948	531	916	1559	438	638	894	307	934	3376	1115	822	310	801	675	1678	908	2469	698	1537	754	1870	552	1459	2305	430	1462	315	523	1955	1131	951	961	2235	968	812	2165	1252	1618	877	515	1291	1093	964	1048	2331	1342	6795	4410	2481	1904	14820	8237	514	2063	691	691	13340	2451	889	230	449	14340	725	1471	359	313	1457	318	452	869	2419	1509	552	752	1105	6194	1387	2660	248	1127	736	631	537	1417	301	1359	2945	526	635	2516	3962	634	7230	1321	952	6062	1713	2225	2159	1172	1001	3400	1167	2784	1536	641	1087	667	1273	512	5192	433	1148	301	4050	848	582	1276	835	251	307	5027	4141	1008	516	4962	733	617	10920	2280	1310	2206	673	468	698	733	1478	206	846	877	993	516	478	870	1397	515	871	2793	1390	1063	2454	689	1029	3733	1248	664	489	4461	2857	2507	904	440	5179	654	1461	816	1581	4504	582	508	403	1101	913	768	396	1046	721	914	550	537	113	2103	3979	770	524	779	4194	3186	2121	2459	3780	859	969	832	728	639	706	761	139	2093	510	735	808	1704	5767	2134	717	942	5961	692	948	2786	689	610	723	886	1368	701	2435
2020-10-13	291	624	926	529	1128	1520	1121	406	1547	3306	3806	1175	1313	1191	988	956	1971	1637	16250	1066	3830	2036	670	6724	603	2097	670	13180	722	662	2962	531	1504	2969	574	2339	969	584	1313	2153	4163	2891	690	1421	657	972	1027	548	1779	1847	1137	713	1080	4367	4154	931	473	615	1501	1037	528	636	1815	378	8104	3514	612	658	2928	1009	1339	924	529	2308	460	3556	1177	855	2597	3263	317	454	735	838	485	659	3004	1050	1199	594	616	312	992	2429	981	536	946	1655	444	644	897	319	941	3454	1170	832	312	804	683	1699	917	2558	714	1570	767	1917	556	1484	2330	436	1491	324	527	1983	1137	969	996	2262	996	823	2192	1265	1669	885	518	1308	1107	970	1055	2363	1370	6999	4607	2510	1974	15320	8328	520	2092	694	706	13880	2477	899	234	458	14780	741	1488	367	320	1476	323	457	879	2502	1533	567	760	1134	6329	1397	2697	257	1152	781	635	552	1455	305	1367	3056	531	651	2552	4049	652	7765	1331	963	6188	1752	2293	2181	1180	1024	3476	1179	2856	1577	648	1099	679	1291	524	5323	440	1187	308	4130	859	592	1339	845	262	316	5165	4200	1028	519	5051	741	624	11100	2309	1335	2232	682	481	715	744	1514	210	852	903	1003	522	490	880	1434	523	893	2847	1401	1071	2481	712	1051	3852	1294	677	492	4598	3016	2543	921	444	5313	663	1479	829	1588	4609	591	513	411	1118	924	777	400	1051	742	926	557	548	116	2137	4125	783	527	790	4296	3254	2183	2518	3890	883	986	848	740	650	710	770	143	2187	533	743	820	1753	5969	2166	727	947	6145	712	963	2820	702	614	726	904	1413	706	2539
2020-10-14	293	628	948	533	1150	1529	1136	413	1570	3375	3908	1195	1330	1202	1002	994	1989	1644	16570	1077	3901	2074	685	6832	606	2166	682	13470	729	665	3000	541	1523	3071	580	2366	978	596	1358	2206	4275	2983	709	1453	674	980	1031	549	1785	1891	1150	725	1097	4474	4263	957	481	633	1531	1051	540	641	1840	388	8384	3589	619	667	2967	1032	1378	930	540	2345	469	3622	1213	862	2647	3343	324	462	743	850	496	669	3050	1068	1211	596	624	322	1016	2469	1002	544	979	1755	450	650	900	326	949	3533	1228	843	314	807	691	1720	926	2634	731	1604	781	1975	560	1511	2364	441	1520	333	531	2021	1143	986	1023	2289	1009	835	2219	1279	1722	892	520	1325	1118	979	1063	2396	1399	7201	4805	2538	2038	15830	8419	526	2122	697	722	14490	2506	909	238	464	15250	756	1504	374	326	1496	329	462	889	2566	1557	584	768	1163	6444	1421	2734	266	1184	808	639	568	1493	309	1379	3172	535	666	2587	4137	671	8134	1347	974	6316	1792	2362	2203	1187	1045	3555	1191	2930	1619	654	1112	692	1319	537	5460	448	1225	313	4218	870	605	1405	855	273	324	5269	4262	1047	522	5189	750	631	11290	2338	1361	2265	691	493	728	755	1552	213	857	919	1014	528	501	890	1471	532	915	2901	1425	1080	2508	731	1062	3969	1342	690	495	4727	3184	2570	937	449	5448	669	1498	842	1602	4715	606	517	420	1135	935	786	405	1056	763	939	562	568	118	2171	4228	797	529	803	4393	3324	2239	2577	3984	902	1004	864	758	660	715	780	148	2262	556	751	832	1799	6138	2208	733	953	6308	725	979	2853	710	618	728	923	1459	710	2648
2020-10-15	295	631	971	538	1172	1538	1169	421	1592	3447	4013	1219	1348	1213	1017	1032	2008	1651	16890	1088	3974	2113	700	6942	609	2232	689	13760	737	672	3038	550	1541	3142	586	2392	991	605	1404	2252	4362	3077	729	1479	692	987	1034	555	1790	1935	1162	740	1114	4563	4375	984	488	651	1562	1065	547	647	1866	398	8669	3665	625	676	3007	1055	1420	934	550	2382	479	3699	1243	868	2698	3396	331	471	751	866	507	682	3090	1084	1223	598	632	327	1041	2518	1015	551	1011	1860	455	655	903	333	956	3614	1288	854	316	810	700	1742	935	2697	747	1635	796	2020	565	1543	2402	447	1549	343	535	2055	1149	1005	1047	2316	1031	846	2259	1293	1776	900	522	1342	1146	989	1071	2429	1429	7377	5026	2567	2105	16340	8508	532	2152	700	738	14990	2536	919	242	475	15680	772	1521	382	333	1515	334	467	898	2647	1580	592	775	1192	6662	1455	2771	276	1216	853	643	584	1532	313	1393	3293	540	683	2622	4225	690	8780	1368	986	6445	1832	2424	2224	1195	1076	3635	1203	3006	1662	660	1125	705	1369	550	5581	455	1252	315	4321	881	610	1474	866	285	333	5423	4317	1069	525	5369	758	638	11490	2367	1388	2310	700	506	742	767	1590	217	863	945	1025	534	511	901	1509	541	937	2955	1444	1088	2536	735	1082	4122	1392	703	498	4847	3363	2596	954	453	5585	687	1516	856	1615	4822	612	522	430	1152	946	796	409	1061	786	951	569	580	121	2206	4339	811	532	817	4494	3395	2274	2639	4095	920	1022	881	766	671	720	789	152	2333	580	759	845	1831	6311	2241	745	958	6479	731	995	2885	721	622	731	942	1506	714	2761

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-09 to 2020-10-15

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-08	281	607	822	506	1020	1473	1094	367	1482	2956	3324	1045	1225	1133	915	809	1881	1600	14731	1008	3490	1857	614	6181	586	1801	602	11705	682	642	2774	486	1405	2511	545	2209	889	549	1097	2006	3708	2468	601	1355	576	933	1006	530	1753	1633	1058	658	994	3887	3637	807	432	532	1353	968	501	605	1685	327	6941	3156	581	612	2728	901	1153	900	476	2132	411	3344	1009	820	2356	2900	281	413	697	770	439	647	2706	984	1137	587	574	299	871	2181	859	508	796	1205	414	615	886	276	905	3062	899	780	301	790	641	1597	868	2239	634	1415	699	1673	533	1407	2185	410	1348	281	507	1818	1105	884	882	2133	890	762	2109	1196	1418	847	505	1228	1080	918	1016	2202	1230	5985	3725	2374	1668	12871	7944	491	1946	677	631	11414	2357	848	212	404	12630	659	1404	331	286	1378	297	433	829	2111	1402	497	718	990	5904	1286	2513	214	1007	611	614	476	1275	283	1299	2534	505	578	2360	3616	565	5874	1263	909	5560	1561	1968	2069	1143	906	3103	1119	2506	1381	613	1034	626	1233	458	4727	401	1024	284	3761	801	551	1052	793	211	272	4630	3915	921	504	4769	701	591	10237	2169	1210	2142	634	416	645	689	1335	191	821	785	952	494	434	831	1254	481	779	2579	1345	1027	2343	611	980	3357	1061	611	476	4002	2295	2411	840	421	4638	644	1385	763	1524	4081	552	489	367	1033	863	732	379	1025	638	865	538	489	101	1968	3557	709	511	729	3858	2921	1886	2230	3464	783	897	768	679	598	686	726	119	1779	421	703	759	1521	5235	1981	677	913	5377	623	883	2672	670	594	711	815	1178	684	2050
2020-10-09	283	617	842	510	1044	1481	1111	374	1504	3025	3424	1069	1243	1145	931	845	1902	1618	15040	1027	3569	1899	629	6301	591	1860	612	11980	690	648	2813	494	1434	2606	551	2236	905	560	1144	2065	3811	2545	620	1381	591	944	1017	537	1769	1686	1075	669	1008	3987	3739	828	441	546	1388	980	509	613	1712	336	7186	3238	594	620	2764	920	1185	905	488	2169	421	3418	1037	827	2397	2966	287	423	707	791	452	657	2767	1000	1152	591	583	305	898	2226	875	517	822	1286	419	620	889	282	924	3141	952	792	304	798	649	1625	882	2306	650	1444	712	1716	539	1442	2229	418	1381	288	512	1852	1114	897	906	2172	912	774	2147	1211	1461	855	509	1255	1100	930	1025	2237	1256	6160	3905	2409	1739	13360	8041	497	1974	689	648	11920	2384	861	216	412	13060	673	1424	335	292	1399	303	438	839	2193	1431	508	729	1023	6129	1314	2559	218	1031	647	626	491	1309	287	1314	2633	512	594	2397	3706	586	6370	1275	923	5687	1596	2024	2094	1163	930	3180	1134	2561	1424	624	1049	655	1272	465	4858	407	1056	287	3870	820	561	1111	804	218	283	4771	3983	941	507	4969	717	602	10630	2208	1233	2184	645	429	663	702	1368	195	828	804	972	501	444	840	1295	488	803	2636	1364	1037	2376	620	999	3465	1091	624	480	4125	2400	2443	859	427	4764	661	1405	777	1539	4181	561	495	378	1049	878	745	385	1029	655	878	546	504	104	2013	3661	720	520	740	3967	2982	1932	2279	3566	803	911	784	693	612	698	737	123	1856	436	712	773	1562	5399	2019	687	938	5524	639	898	2712	680	598	720	834	1210	694	2135
2020-10-10	285	628	857	515	1065	1487	1123	379	1524	3068	3507	1091	1262	1154	946	876	1923	1637	15360	1041	3640	1941	638	6413	595	1919	624	12220	697	653	2853	504	1463	2686	556	2267	923	569	1193	2145	3898	2619	633	1403	604	953	1024	542	1783	1716	1084	678	1020	4080	3833	846	446	558	1422	992	516	619	1737	343	7403	3310	607	626	2803	935	1218	910	497	2208	429	3489	1059	832	2442	3022	292	433	716	812	462	666	2827	1013	1165	594	589	307	925	2267	890	526	849	1385	422	627	891	288	941	3227	987	803	306	805	660	1651	896	2378	667	1470	727	1753	544	1478	2262	425	1421	296	516	1879	1123	914	923	2208	927	784	2182	1224	1504	861	512	1282	1119	940	1034	2275	1278	6321	4093	2449	1783	13860	8110	502	2003	702	663	12450	2405	869	221	420	13550	686	1439	341	298	1417	307	443	848	2261	1453	519	738	1059	6408	1341	2600	224	1061	677	638	503	1342	291	1328	2728	518	606	2422	3800	601	6990	1291	936	5812	1626	2069	2111	1180	950	3266	1147	2615	1463	631	1058	686	1303	474	4969	411	1085	290	3971	834	568	1168	813	226	292	4923	4032	950	510	5129	729	615	11080	2244	1255	2224	655	439	679	714	1397	198	834	832	993	508	452	851	1336	494	823	2695	1378	1048	2398	631	1016	3583	1120	636	484	4246	2514	2465	878	433	4895	670	1420	786	1550	4277	568	501	387	1066	893	756	391	1033	670	891	555	514	105	2051	3765	731	530	750	4054	3041	1967	2327	3672	821	921	798	702	619	708	747	127	1925	450	719	782	1598	5548	2042	694	959	5657	647	912	2745	694	601	728	849	1236	706	2216
2020-10-11	287	639	874	519	1082	1492	1134	383	1543	3118	3589	1114	1280	1162	962	900	1943	1655	15670	1054	3708	1983	650	6524	599	1973	631	12440	704	660	2894	514	1488	2760	562	2297	934	577	1243	2208	3984	2693	645	1425	615	961	1032	548	1797	1749	1095	687	1033	4171	3929	864	452	570	1458	1005	521	626	1761	350	7627	3384	620	633	2843	950	1247	916	506	2245	438	3561	1079	838	2482	3093	296	443	726	833	471	675	2884	1026	1178	597	595	311	953	2309	906	532	875	1489	426	634	893	295	966	3313	1026	814	309	812	672	1675	907	2446	685	1494	742	1796	549	1506	2289	432	1460	303	519	1898	1129	930	940	2247	941	796	2218	1236	1547	866	514	1310	1134	950	1042	2312	1301	6450	4286	2489	1821	14350	8174	508	2033	712	679	12990	2426	879	225	428	14000	699	1453	347	304	1435	310	447	857	2320	1475	529	747	1096	6702	1366	2643	230	1087	709	650	512	1377	294	1341	2824	523	620	2446	3895	615	7690	1300	948	5939	1657	2107	2128	1198	970	3337	1160	2670	1507	639	1070	719	1333	483	5080	415	1117	294	4071	844	577	1226	822	235	302	5064	4077	963	513	5313	742	627	11550	2279	1276	2266	664	448	695	725	1426	202	839	858	1016	515	460	862	1381	501	838	2754	1394	1059	2417	640	1032	3695	1148	648	487	4366	2612	2488	897	438	5028	678	1434	796	1563	4373	575	506	396	1083	908	767	397	1037	686	902	564	522	107	2088	3874	742	538	756	4141	3099	2001	2364	3775	836	931	811	710	626	718	757	130	1995	465	725	791	1625	5697	2070	702	978	5783	656	921	2774	704	605	736	864	1264	718	2303
2020-10-12	290	650	892	526	1103	1498	1147	388	1563	3181	3672	1140	1299	1170	978	929	1964	1675	16000	1068	3793	2026	664	6640	603	2036	639	12710	713	668	2938	523	1514	2833	567	2327	952	588	1294	2288	4096	2772	658	1449	628	970	1042	556	1811	1785	1109	696	1046	4266	4028	883	457	582	1493	1018	528	632	1788	357	7880	3460	634	640	2883	967	1285	923	515	2284	450	3635	1103	843	2523	3179	301	454	736	854	481	685	2943	1043	1192	603	603	314	983	2351	923	537	897	1599	429	640	897	302	989	3404	1069	825	311	819	683	1701	918	2522	702	1522	757	1840	554	1543	2329	440	1501	310	523	1933	1137	948	959	2290	960	805	2254	1249	1591	871	517	1343	1152	960	1052	2348	1324	6621	4494	2532	1880	14910	8249	513	2064	723	695	13590	2445	889	230	437	14550	712	1466	353	310	1453	314	452	866	2379	1498	541	757	1158	7018	1402	2692	236	1110	741	663	523	1412	297	1354	2928	529	637	2471	3992	634	8500	1316	961	6066	1688	2175	2146	1216	990	3425	1173	2725	1551	647	1082	756	1372	492	5235	419	1148	300	4179	857	585	1288	831	242	315	5226	4133	980	516	5538	758	639	12040	2316	1297	2319	674	458	714	739	1455	205	845	888	1040	521	470	873	1429	508	856	2814	1411	1070	2446	650	1046	3825	1178	661	490	4497	2731	2513	919	443	5164	688	1449	807	1576	4475	584	511	405	1100	923	777	404	1042	703	919	572	533	109	2130	3986	753	545	765	4249	3161	2042	2413	3892	853	943	823	722	633	728	771	132	2081	480	732	801	1656	5859	2097	711	999	5960	668	932	2817	716	608	746	881	1295	732	2391
2020-10-13	291	661	909	531	1126	1503	1159	393	1587	3232	3761	1166	1317	1179	993	953	1986	1692	16330	1081	3876	2070	675	6758	608	2100	647	13010	720	673	2979	533	1538	2896	572	2357	969	598	1347	2380	4186	2851	672	1470	640	979	1050	560	1825	1822	1123	706	1058	4372	4133	902	462	595	1529	1031	535	637	1817	364	8126	3538	648	646	2923	984	1321	928	524	2325	460	3702	1128	849	2569	3246	305	464	745	881	491	692	3005	1058	1206	606	609	317	1011	2396	941	543	920	1716	432	646	900	310	1011	3497	1107	836	313	827	695	1728	932	2606	720	1551	772	1883	559	1584	2359	447	1543	318	526	1958	1146	962	989	2335	981	814	2293	1262	1636	876	519	1379	1173	969	1061	2385	1347	6786	4716	2581	1946	15490	8322	518	2094	735	710	14240	2465	897	234	444	15190	725	1481	359	316	1472	318	456	875	2451	1520	553	766	1188	7349	1427	2737	243	1137	778	675	534	1448	301	1365	3039	535	649	2495	4091	645	9330	1327	974	6196	1717	2241	2165	1234	1010	3515	1186	2780	1597	657	1091	793	1409	503	5375	423	1185	305	4273	871	594	1347	840	250	323	5405	4193	995	519	5760	772	651	12520	2352	1321	2367	684	469	732	752	1485	209	851	913	1062	530	479	885	1476	515	876	2875	1426	1081	2473	660	1064	3966	1204	674	493	4631	2831	2541	939	449	5303	700	1465	817	1585	4578	591	517	412	1118	939	788	410	1046	717	931	581	544	110	2173	4106	763	552	772	4365	3222	2079	2464	4011	871	954	835	732	642	738	781	134	2164	496	739	811	1696	6031	2124	719	1021	6142	680	945	2853	732	612	757	896	1327	745	2482
2020-10-14	293	673	923	537	1150	1509	1172	398	1617	3294	3847	1188	1336	1187	1009	987	2008	1710	16680	1095	3944	2115	686	6877	612	2163	654	13300	728	677	3024	544	1557	2970	578	2388	986	608	1401	2475	4278	2929	687	1497	652	988	1060	565	1839	1855	1135	716	1071	4480	4243	922	467	607	1565	1044	543	644	1843	371	8388	3619	661	653	2964	1002	1362	933	532	2366	468	3772	1154	855	2621	3302	310	474	754	902	501	702	3071	1072	1219	611	615	323	1042	2439	959	549	948	1841	435	652	902	317	1029	3592	1143	848	316	834	707	1755	945	2681	738	1580	788	1939	563	1629	2391	453	1586	326	530	1992	1153	979	1017	2378	995	821	2331	1275	1683	881	522	1404	1191	978	1069	2425	1371	6962	4951	2626	1985	16120	8399	524	2127	747	726	14930	2485	906	238	452	15870	738	1496	365	322	1490	322	461	884	2524	1543	564	776	1224	7697	1448	2780	249	1169	811	688	546	1485	304	1378	3149	540	659	2520	4193	657	10190	1345	987	6329	1749	2307	2182	1254	1031	3605	1199	2836	1643	666	1101	833	1447	513	5519	427	1220	309	4387	883	604	1413	850	258	331	5583	4250	1011	522	6028	785	663	13050	2390	1345	2410	694	481	752	767	1516	214	856	939	1086	535	489	895	1523	522	899	2938	1449	1092	2502	669	1079	4139	1234	686	497	4765	2966	2566	958	453	5445	707	1480	827	1596	4682	598	523	421	1136	954	798	415	1049	734	945	590	556	112	2217	4226	773	561	781	4481	3286	2121	2518	4129	884	965	847	743	650	749	792	137	2237	512	745	820	1735	6204	2150	727	1044	6318	690	958	2885	746	616	766	911	1356	758	2580
2020-10-15	296	685	940	542	1172	1514	1188	403	1642	3367	3939	1211	1355	1195	1026	1021	2030	1730	17050	1109	4021	2162	700	6996	616	2230	659	13630	735	684	3070	554	1579	3046	583	2420	1005	617	1458	2550	4375	3011	701	1522	665	997	1068	570	1853	1889	1147	729	1084	4590	4350	942	473	620	1605	1055	550	650	1869	378	8666	3702	675	659	3005	1018	1407	939	542	2407	476	3851	1178	860	2671	3364	315	485	763	925	512	712	3139	1089	1233	616	621	327	1073	2485	975	556	971	1977	438	659	904	323	1054	3692	1185	859	318	841	719	1783	960	2756	757	1611	804	1988	568	1660	2430	461	1630	334	534	2018	1158	997	1042	2431	1013	830	2372	1289	1731	886	525	1435	1214	989	1076	2463	1395	7167	5217	2677	2042	16880	8480	529	2163	758	744	15600	2506	913	242	462	16520	752	1509	371	328	1509	325	465	892	2612	1566	573	786	1258	8075	1474	2830	256	1201	849	700	557	1523	306	1392	3263	546	670	2544	4296	672	11260	1365	1001	6464	1782	2367	2200	1271	1055	3689	1212	2893	1696	676	1111	875	1496	522	5680	431	1250	312	4511	892	611	1489	860	266	342	5789	4313	1031	525	6298	799	676	13600	2428	1369	2459	704	491	769	782	1547	217	862	971	1109	542	499	907	1578	532	920	3002	1469	1104	2530	676	1099	4311	1265	699	500	4897	3091	2589	977	459	5591	716	1494	838	1608	4784	604	529	431	1155	971	809	421	1053	749	959	600	567	114	2264	4361	783	569	791	4600	3351	2155	2569	4257	897	975	860	752	657	759	804	140	2317	529	752	833	1769	6375	2173	738	1066	6489	700	973	2919	761	619	778	928	1386	770	2684

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

2020-10-13

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-08 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-10-08