COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-28

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	04-15	04-21	08-30	04-29	04-09	04-16	04-17	04-10	09-14	09-02	04-23	03-28	04-18	03-27	05-14	04-02	04-19	03-30	09-15	09-06	09-14	09-16	04-18	09-14	04-02	04-19	04-04	09-17	05-03	04-20	03-26	03-26	03-30	08-26	04-26	03-27	05-11	09-07	04-15	--	09-15	09-16	04-08	03-28	08-31	04-08	04-21	03-29	04-17	09-07	04-16	04-03	03-30	08-06	--	05-06	05-03	05-08	--	04-17	04-11	05-03	--	04-02	--	--	--	04-20	03-27	04-03	--	03-30	03-25	03-23	04-18	04-16	04-19	05-13	09-17	03-27	04-23	04-25	04-17	04-15	04-12	04-21	04-21	04-16	04-16	04-22	04-16	04-23	03-24	03-30	03-25	03-25	04-17	09-14	04-18	04-28	05-11	03-27	--	09-14	04-16	04-19	04-15	03-30	05-11	03-28	04-05	09-16	--	04-15	04-20	03-26	03-25	04-20	03-25	04-23	--	04-25	04-18	03-26	07-01	03-23	--	03-26	04-13	04-19	03-24	05-03	09-17	04-17	04-21	03-16	03-21	05-03	04-10	09-17	04-07	--	--	08-30	03-26	--	09-14	04-13	03-25	03-25	--	09-17	04-03	04-27	03-22	03-30	--	05-24	03-27	03-23	05-04	03-25	03-27	04-23	04-22	--	04-21	05-05	03-30	09-17	--	04-29	03-25	04-20	04-18	--	04-26	03-25	04-18	05-04	04-22	--	04-08	04-10	08-02	09-17	04-20	--	04-22	09-06	09-17	03-31	--	04-29	04-14	04-14	--	04-07	03-30	--	04-10	04-08	--	03-19	04-21	--	04-20	--	05-14	--	09-10	04-13	--	04-05	05-07	04-20	09-15	09-16	04-18	04-22	--	04-21	03-26	--	04-20	--	--	05-26	03-23	04-15	04-01	04-17	03-25	04-28	04-29	03-24	04-22	03-27	05-09	--	04-26	03-21	--	04-18	03-27	08-12	04-14	03-29	--	04-15	04-14	03-30	09-15	--	04-24	04-10	03-30	09-16	04-06	04-05	08-29	07-26	--	03-21	04-07	04-15	05-12	04-14	04-22	04-02	04-13	04-17	03-25	04-11	04-17	04-06	09-14	09-16	05-13	04-27	03-25	--	09-17	09-17	03-24	09-16	03-24	04-03	04-13	04-18	08-02	05-10	04-07	04-18	09-17	--	04-19	04-14	03-17	09-14	05-03	04-15	09-02	09-17	04-14	04-14	09-16	04-15	04-16	04-15	03-29	04-20	04-13	09-14
Peak daily increment	5	8	9	18	12	22	13	6	18	14	27	27	16	24	24	8	17	29	236	10	43	15	6	95	8	20	8	132	11	9	51	7	13	11	12	38	20	11	9		58	27	6	19	8	15	25	6	19	14	16	12	12	5		9	14	7		23	8	7		4				11	49	9		18	5	19	9	35	15	11	24	33	4	7	15	8	5	11	40	12	18	15	10	6	8	25	14	8	8	18	6	11	13	4		46	7	14	7	9	14	25	13	48		32	6	21	10	12	30	6		2	9	28	43	13		24	9	11	23	29	26	20	16	15	16	18	23	11	16			12	32		56	6	37	8		221	23	24	4	5		17	24	3	4	24	10	10	13		18	12	8	27		17	43	4	12		10	6	18	15	19		10	5	68	78	7		13	9	68	21		33	18	12		22	29		9	17		15	11		7		4		10	6		14	2	3	64	53	21	7		8	8		21			15	4	7	6	17	3	25	7	15	18	5	18		8	8		17	15	7	8	12		18	7	7	44		27	14	9	85	9	28	12	16		7	7	7	11	14	10	6	21	7	11	6	9	6	23	50	10	15	9		33	19	32	55	9	12	12	8	7	8	11	2	23		11	14	19	77	37	10	13	84	8	15	27	12	10	10	6	16	10	15
Days since peak	166	160	29	152	172	165	164	171	14	26	158	184	163	185	137	179	162	182	13	22	14	12	163	14	179	162	177	11	148	161	186	186	182	33	155	185	140	21	166		13	12	173	184	28	173	160	183	164	21	165	178	182	53		145	148	143		164	170	148		179				161	185	178		182	187	189	163	165	162	138	11	185	158	156	164	166	169	160	160	165	165	159	165	158	188	182	187	187	164	14	163	153	140	185		14	165	162	166	182	140	184	176	12		166	161	186	187	161	187	158		156	163	186	89	189		186	168	162	188	148	11	164	160	196	191	148	171	11	174			29	186		14	168	187	187		11	178	154	190	182		127	185	189	147	187	185	158	159		160	146	182	11		152	187	161	163		155	187	163	147	159		173	171	57	11	161		159	22	11	181		152	167	167		174	182		171	173		193	160		161		137		18	168		176	144	161	13	12	163	159		160	186		161			125	189	166	180	164	187	153	152	188	159	185	142		155	191		163	185	47	167	183		166	167	182	13		157	171	182	12	175	176	30	64		191	174	166	139	167	159	179	168	164	187	170	164	175	14	12	138	154	187		11	11	188	12	188	178	168	163	57	141	174	163	11		162	167	195	14	148	166	26	11	167	167	12	166	165	166	183	161	168	14
Last total	249	492	638	440	785	1406	940	305	1234	2327	2523	777	1022	1033	745	553	1660	1358	11466	818	2708	1402	486	4814	538	1230	514	9037	586	569	2337	386	1084	1855	479	1890	701	443	663	1322	2669	1779	476	1068	451	810	892	446	1561	1201	896	551	838	2961	2736	624	361	407	972	838	426	532	1380	251	4824	2418	431	543	2305	721	834	828	367	1730	315	2537	785	758	1915	2274	230	301	595	560	341	523	2085	841	985	533	493	257	615	1771	688	418	565	418	373	545	850	210	690	2229	522	663	272	699	511	1309	701	1449	468	1153	545	1244	472	1042	1757	331	971	212	454	1507	1022	714	644	1711	717	638	1712	1047	985	777	460	935	861	808	927	1792	989	4481	2125	1940	1126	7835	7033	432	1601	535	482	6288	2105	752	173	321	7710	521	1241	263	220	1185	247	384	726	1502	1164	394	610	650	3445	1019	2047	163	762	343	488	348	963	243	1143	1680	427	431	2065	2642	420	1990	1109	755	4254	1234	1426	1830	935	696	2360	979	1919	980	520	913	362	834	365	3407	355	699	238	2801	634	455	599	691	142	185	3133	3233	750	459	2893	538	470	6309	1801	979	1663	516	312	482	559	1034	150	757	562	726	413	351	710	852	406	581	1895	1151	898	2001	502	787	2244	790	487	426	2750	1460	2086	654	348	3285	535	1221	650	1392	3064	455	416	264	858	714	609	317	969	497	729	443	355	75	1484	2398	598	399	611	2782	2281	1508	1778	2452	601	763	616	559	506	567	615	86	1126	272	626	638	1204	3531	1661	558	677	3873	497	748	2265	541	545	586	645	900	553	1317
Last daily increment	1	1	8	6	9	1	7	0	15	9	27	13	1	1	8	10	8	12	131	7	36	23	2	70	5	17	2	112	3	2	16	1	7	15	3	13	4	5	7	48	46	21	6	8	0	2	2	2	5	8	3	2	3	36	34	3	4	3	16	1	2	3	14	0	63	36	5	4	13	8	27	5	3	13	2	34	5	0	21	23	2	2	4	5	5	5	33	8	5	1	0	2	8	16	3	2	5	23	2	2	0	4	13	25	12	10	3	2	4	9	5	52	12	10	0	12	1	16	15	1	26	4	1	12	3	3	12	13	5	2	10	5	20	4	0	22	7	4	9	10	10	66	81	15	17	144	24	1	12	9	10	218	18	2	0	3	247	6	3	3	3	9	1	2	3	22	6	4	1	27	106	13	26	1	8	8	1	1	9	0	4	30	3	2	4	44	3	69	10	5	33	17	39	3	7	7	64	8	22	19	4	2	20	8	9	55	1	15	0	36	5	3	15	2	1	4	47	33	8	2	73	3	7	121	16	5	25	8	4	3	11	13	1	4	3	5	2	3	5	29	1	6	31	7	3	19	8	7	53	6	2	1	27	23	9	4	0	59	2	3	2	0	38	2	4	4	10	2	4	5	0	6	9	1	4	0	11	43	4	3	5	36	21	8	12	45	5	5	4	1	2	3	7	0	14	8	3	4	14	60	11	6	4	66	2	7	15	4	0	7	3	10	3	33
Last week	5	29	42	22	49	8	24	2	92	106	136	57	33	14	33	46	59	35	1028	41	178	91	26	429	10	76	17	694	17	11	119	12	46	84	8	59	26	28	43	262	261	149	26	48	19	17	29	18	40	57	29	24	15	178	188	17	18	19	74	15	16	21	134	4	400	193	55	23	83	35	101	23	15	65	7	148	31	6	132	134	8	7	16	30	22	15	145	37	18	10	6	11	28	106	42	12	31	66	9	7	7	12	73	200	37	20	12	8	43	66	27	232	42	64	25	77	15	69	69	13	103	12	20	110	20	21	47	123	33	18	123	30	131	11	4	80	28	18	18	59	46	368	363	78	85	946	227	11	61	23	50	1171	104	15	11	21	1262	25	26	9	11	44	6	7	18	141	44	9	20	97	653	59	171	9	37	36	19	23	60	5	26	228	18	23	30	380	14	243	45	34	334	77	166	37	33	46	260	31	161	74	26	13	56	59	33	295	6	84	8	211	39	17	52	14	12	17	350	235	36	14	436	35	17	548	92	83	142	16	23	26	34	56	9	9	25	29	21	13	13	105	16	45	215	35	37	91	27	44	340	47	21	7	223	167	92	22	11	410	19	25	15	25	270	9	17	12	61	15	16	11	9	30	30	10	18	3	111	258	16	30	19	208	147	83	79	282	38	24	25	10	16	18	29	4	125	23	16	15	56	374	56	17	30	413	22	36	126	34	14	27	22	67	35	115
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-28	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	--	04-12	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	04-16	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-19	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-10	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	03-25	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-17	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21
Previous peak daily increment									19	47									95			21						56						25																				38											68														25																																																													43				39		81	75																																																																																																			44																	27														25							28																							28							30
Low between peaks									1	1									10			1						27						1																				2																									1																																																													1				0			11																																																																																																			1																															1							1																							2							1

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-29 to 2020-10-05

Date	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-28	492	638	440	785	1406	940	1234	2327	2523	777	1022	1033	745	553	1660	1358	11466	818	2708	1402	486	4814	538	1230	514	9037	586	569	2337	386	1084	1855	479	1890	701	443	663	1322	2669	1779	476	1068	451	810	892	446	1561	1201	896	551	838	2961	2736	624	361	407	972	838	426	532	1380	4824	2418	431	543	2305	721	834	828	367	1730	315	2537	785	758	1915	2274	230	301	595	560	341	523	2085	841	985	533	493	257	615	1771	688	418	565	418	373	545	850	210	690	2229	522	663	272	699	511	1309	701	1449	468	1153	545	1244	472	1042	1757	331	971	212	454	1507	1022	714	644	1711	717	638	1712	1047	985	777	935	861	808	927	1792	989	4481	2125	1940	1126	7835	7033	432	1601	535	482	6288	2105	752	173	321	7710	521	1241	263	220	1185	247	384	726	1502	1164	394	610	650	3445	1019	2047	163	762	343	488	348	963	1143	1680	427	431	2065	2642	420	1990	1109	755	4254	1234	1426	1830	935	696	2360	979	1919	980	520	913	362	834	365	3407	355	699	238	2801	634	455	599	691	142	185	3133	3233	750	459	2893	538	470	6309	1801	979	1663	516	312	482	559	1034	150	757	562	726	413	351	710	852	406	581	1895	1151	898	2001	502	787	2244	790	487	426	2750	1460	2086	654	348	3285	535	1221	650	1392	3064	455	416	264	858	714	609	317	969	497	729	443	355	1484	2398	598	399	611	2782	2281	1508	1778	2452	601	763	616	559	506	567	615	1126	272	626	638	1204	3531	1661	558	677	3873	497	748	2265	541	545	586	645	900	553	1317
2020-09-29	496	645	443	791	1407	943	1238	2341	2552	784	1027	1035	749	559	1680	1365	11640	826	2740	1415	490	4947	539	1242	517	9143	588	571	2357	389	1091	1867	480	1898	705	448	669	1373	2740	1801	476	1079	456	811	894	449	1568	1212	899	554	841	2989	2764	627	363	409	991	841	428	535	1401	4887	2465	431	545	2315	725	852	828	369	1742	317	2558	789	758	1936	2291	230	302	597	564	343	525	2109	845	987	534	494	258	619	1786	690	420	570	429	375	546	851	211	708	2264	526	666	273	701	517	1318	704	1502	476	1153	549	1255	473	1052	1767	333	995	214	457	1521	1026	718	655	1727	722	641	1727	1051	1005	778	954	867	811	929	1799	995	4520	2236	1952	1140	7968	7076	433	1610	539	492	6496	2110	754	174	323	7942	526	1245	264	222	1190	247	385	728	1545	1171	395	613	668	3567	1032	2068	164	767	353	491	351	977	1156	1719	431	434	2072	2702	423	2012	1116	762	4276	1247	1489	1836	942	702	2416	983	1942	1002	523	915	378	840	371	3491	357	720	239	2832	642	459	605	693	143	187	3191	3247	756	461	3001	546	472	6414	1815	996	1700	518	315	485	563	1041	151	757	566	730	415	353	712	858	408	587	1975	1156	903	2014	506	794	2276	797	490	428	2784	1491	2099	658	350	3353	538	1225	651	1393	3106	457	418	264	865	716	611	318	970	500	733	445	357	1501	2439	601	402	614	2823	2303	1520	1790	2494	606	767	620	560	509	570	619	1146	275	628	641	1212	3593	1669	560	681	3964	500	758	2288	546	548	590	649	909	555	1329
2020-09-30	499	651	445	797	1409	947	1242	2355	2579	790	1032	1037	752	564	1698	1372	11800	833	2769	1426	494	5022	540	1253	520	9248	590	572	2378	391	1097	1878	481	1906	709	452	675	1423	2790	1821	477	1087	460	812	895	453	1575	1223	903	557	844	3030	2792	630	365	411	1007	844	431	538	1422	4949	2511	436	547	2325	729	870	834	371	1753	318	2585	792	758	1957	2308	231	304	599	568	346	527	2132	850	990	535	495	260	622	1800	692	421	574	442	376	547	854	212	726	2300	530	670	274	704	524	1326	707	1546	484	1162	553	1267	473	1061	1777	334	1018	215	460	1535	1029	723	668	1742	726	644	1741	1054	1024	780	972	873	814	931	1805	1000	4559	2344	1963	1152	8100	7121	434	1618	542	501	6717	2114	756	174	326	8171	531	1249	265	224	1195	248	386	730	1580	1177	396	616	685	3689	1043	2089	165	771	362	494	354	990	1159	1756	434	437	2078	2761	425	2055	1122	769	4300	1259	1535	1842	948	707	2469	987	1965	1018	526	918	393	846	377	3561	358	731	240	2867	650	462	612	696	144	188	3248	3262	761	462	3108	553	474	6515	1828	1014	1724	520	317	488	567	1047	153	757	570	733	417	355	714	879	409	593	2003	1161	908	2027	509	801	2339	804	492	430	2817	1527	2112	661	352	3422	540	1230	653	1398	3148	460	420	267	871	717	613	320	971	504	737	447	359	1516	2479	603	405	616	2871	2324	1532	1801	2533	611	770	623	562	512	573	622	1166	279	629	644	1220	3666	1675	561	686	4039	503	766	2310	550	552	594	653	919	556	1340
2020-10-01	502	658	448	803	1410	950	1247	2369	2604	797	1037	1039	755	569	1709	1379	11970	841	2799	1438	498	5121	541	1264	524	9351	592	574	2398	394	1104	1889	483	1914	712	456	680	1475	2833	1842	483	1097	464	812	897	456	1582	1233	906	560	847	3064	2819	632	367	413	1022	847	433	541	1443	5010	2556	441	549	2335	732	887	838	373	1765	319	2607	796	759	1977	2324	232	305	600	572	348	529	2155	854	992	537	496	261	626	1815	694	423	578	455	378	549	855	213	744	2336	534	673	275	706	530	1335	710	1593	492	1174	557	1277	473	1070	1786	336	1041	217	463	1548	1033	727	677	1756	731	647	1755	1058	1043	781	989	876	817	933	1812	1006	4598	2459	1975	1166	8234	7164	436	1626	546	511	6946	2120	758	175	328	8407	535	1253	266	226	1200	248	387	733	1621	1184	397	618	702	3815	1054	2109	166	776	371	497	357	1003	1163	1793	437	440	2085	2820	428	2100	1129	776	4324	1272	1580	1847	955	712	2522	991	1988	1030	529	920	408	852	384	3641	360	742	241	2913	658	466	618	698	145	190	3305	3278	767	464	3221	559	475	6616	1841	1034	1748	522	320	490	571	1054	154	758	573	736	419	356	716	898	411	599	2026	1166	912	2040	513	808	2409	810	495	432	2850	1560	2125	664	354	3489	542	1234	654	1402	3189	462	423	269	877	718	615	321	973	507	741	449	361	1533	2519	605	407	618	2919	2346	1544	1812	2573	615	774	626	563	515	576	625	1187	282	631	646	1227	3734	1683	563	690	4115	506	775	2332	554	555	598	657	927	558	1351
2020-10-02	505	664	450	809	1411	953	1252	2383	2629	803	1042	1041	758	574	1725	1385	12140	849	2828	1449	502	5204	543	1275	527	9453	594	576	2418	396	1110	1900	484	1921	716	461	686	1528	2879	1862	485	1105	468	813	899	459	1588	1244	909	562	850	3111	2847	635	369	415	1034	850	435	544	1465	5072	2603	442	551	2344	735	905	839	375	1776	321	2626	800	759	1997	2340	232	306	602	575	351	531	2177	858	994	538	497	262	629	1829	696	425	583	467	380	550	855	215	762	2371	538	676	276	708	535	1343	713	1623	500	1183	561	1288	473	1078	1796	337	1065	218	465	1562	1037	731	683	1771	735	650	1769	1061	1062	783	1007	881	820	935	1818	1011	4636	2577	1986	1179	8367	7209	437	1635	550	521	7150	2125	760	175	330	8644	540	1258	267	228	1205	249	388	735	1646	1190	398	621	718	3943	1065	2128	167	780	380	500	361	1015	1168	1830	440	442	2092	2879	430	2141	1135	783	4349	1284	1598	1853	961	718	2575	994	2010	1040	532	922	422	858	390	3703	361	753	242	2950	665	469	623	700	146	191	3362	3294	772	466	3336	566	477	6716	1854	1050	1772	523	322	493	575	1060	155	758	577	740	421	358	717	912	412	605	2052	1170	917	2052	516	815	2466	817	497	434	2882	1593	2138	668	356	3558	544	1238	656	1409	3229	464	425	269	883	720	617	322	974	510	745	451	362	1549	2558	608	410	621	2963	2368	1556	1824	2612	620	777	629	565	518	579	628	1207	286	633	649	1235	3792	1689	564	694	4186	509	783	2355	558	558	602	661	936	559	1362
2020-10-03	508	671	453	815	1413	956	1257	2397	2653	810	1047	1043	761	578	1741	1392	12300	856	2857	1461	506	5264	544	1286	530	9556	596	577	2439	399	1116	1911	485	1929	720	465	692	1582	2917	1882	487	1110	473	813	900	463	1595	1254	912	565	852	3141	2875	638	371	417	1052	852	437	547	1487	5133	2649	446	554	2353	738	922	842	377	1787	322	2646	803	759	2017	2356	233	307	604	579	353	533	2199	863	996	539	498	263	632	1843	698	426	587	480	381	551	855	216	780	2407	541	679	277	710	541	1351	716	1657	508	1192	565	1299	474	1087	1805	339	1088	219	468	1575	1040	735	689	1785	740	653	1783	1064	1081	784	1024	883	823	937	1824	1016	4675	2699	1997	1191	8502	7253	438	1643	553	530	7327	2131	762	175	332	8888	544	1262	268	230	1210	249	389	737	1671	1196	399	624	734	4076	1076	2148	168	785	389	503	364	1028	1172	1867	443	445	2100	2938	432	2187	1141	790	4374	1295	1643	1859	968	723	2629	998	2033	1050	535	924	437	864	396	3765	363	765	243	2984	673	473	629	702	147	192	3418	3310	778	467	3455	572	479	6818	1867	1062	1790	525	324	496	579	1067	156	758	581	743	422	360	719	928	414	611	2068	1175	921	2064	519	822	2532	823	500	436	2915	1629	2151	671	358	3626	547	1242	657	1410	3270	466	427	270	889	721	619	324	975	513	749	453	364	1564	2598	610	413	623	3003	2389	1568	1835	2651	624	781	633	566	521	582	631	1228	289	634	652	1243	3835	1696	566	698	4239	512	791	2377	562	561	605	665	945	560	1374
2020-10-04	511	677	455	821	1414	960	1263	2411	2678	816	1052	1045	764	583	1754	1398	12470	864	2886	1472	510	5318	545	1297	533	9660	597	579	2459	401	1122	1922	486	1936	724	469	697	1639	2949	1903	492	1116	477	814	902	466	1602	1265	915	568	855	3168	2902	641	373	419	1065	855	440	550	1509	5195	2697	450	556	2363	742	940	844	378	1798	324	2668	807	760	2037	2372	233	308	606	582	356	535	2222	867	998	540	499	265	635	1857	700	428	591	493	383	552	857	217	795	2444	545	682	278	713	547	1360	719	1681	516	1197	569	1310	475	1096	1815	340	1112	221	471	1589	1044	739	693	1800	744	656	1797	1067	1100	785	1041	885	826	939	1830	1022	4714	2827	2008	1204	8639	7298	439	1651	557	540	7491	2136	764	176	335	9140	548	1266	269	232	1215	250	390	739	1699	1202	400	627	750	4214	1087	2168	169	789	398	506	367	1040	1176	1904	446	448	2107	2999	435	2235	1148	797	4400	1307	1669	1865	974	728	2685	1002	2055	1058	537	927	452	870	402	3830	365	773	243	3023	680	476	635	704	148	194	3475	3327	783	469	3578	579	481	6921	1880	1074	1800	526	327	498	583	1073	157	759	584	746	424	362	721	942	415	617	2082	1179	926	2077	523	829	2586	829	502	438	2948	1660	2163	675	360	3696	549	1246	658	1414	3311	469	429	271	895	723	621	325	976	517	752	455	365	1580	2638	613	415	625	3042	2411	1580	1846	2690	629	784	636	568	524	585	634	1249	293	636	655	1250	3876	1703	567	702	4294	514	799	2400	567	565	609	669	954	562	1385
2020-10-05	514	684	458	827	1415	963	1268	2425	2703	823	1057	1047	767	588	1758	1405	12640	872	2915	1484	514	5392	546	1308	536	9764	599	581	2479	404	1129	1933	488	1944	728	473	703	1698	2993	1923	497	1124	481	815	904	469	1609	1276	918	571	858	3192	2930	644	375	421	1072	858	442	552	1531	5258	2746	455	558	2372	745	959	847	380	1809	325	2699	811	760	2057	2387	234	309	608	586	358	536	2244	871	1001	541	500	266	639	1871	703	430	595	506	385	553	858	218	806	2480	548	685	279	715	553	1368	722	1729	524	1206	572	1321	477	1104	1825	342	1137	222	473	1602	1047	744	700	1814	749	659	1811	1071	1120	787	1058	891	829	941	1837	1027	4754	2961	2019	1218	8779	7343	440	1660	561	550	7704	2141	766	176	337	9399	553	1270	270	234	1220	250	391	741	1721	1208	400	629	767	4357	1097	2187	169	793	407	509	371	1053	1182	1942	450	451	2114	3059	437	2291	1154	804	4426	1319	1716	1871	981	733	2741	1005	2078	1071	540	929	467	876	408	3882	366	787	244	3053	688	480	641	707	149	195	3533	3343	789	470	3706	586	482	7025	1894	1081	1826	528	329	501	587	1080	159	759	588	749	426	364	723	961	417	623	2104	1184	930	2089	526	836	2643	836	505	440	2981	1685	2176	678	362	3766	551	1250	660	1416	3353	471	431	273	900	724	623	326	977	520	756	457	367	1596	2678	615	418	627	3072	2433	1592	1858	2729	634	788	639	569	527	588	637	1270	297	637	657	1258	3929	1709	569	707	4362	517	807	2422	571	568	613	673	963	563	1396

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-29 to 2020-10-05

Date	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-28	492	638	440	785	1406	940	1234	2327	2523	777	1022	1033	745	553	1660	1358	11466	818	2708	1402	486	4814	538	1230	514	9037	586	569	2337	386	1084	1855	479	1890	701	443	663	1322	2669	1779	476	1068	451	810	892	446	1561	1201	896	551	838	2961	2736	624	361	407	972	838	426	532	1380	4824	2418	431	543	2305	721	834	828	367	1730	315	2537	785	758	1915	2274	230	301	595	560	341	523	2085	841	985	533	493	257	615	1771	688	418	565	418	373	545	850	210	690	2229	522	663	272	699	511	1309	701	1449	468	1153	545	1244	472	1042	1757	331	971	212	454	1507	1022	714	644	1711	717	638	1712	1047	985	777	935	861	808	927	1792	989	4481	2125	1940	1126	7835	7033	432	1601	535	482	6288	2105	752	173	321	7710	521	1241	263	220	1185	247	384	726	1502	1164	394	610	650	3445	1019	2047	163	762	343	488	348	963	1143	1680	427	431	2065	2642	420	1990	1109	755	4254	1234	1426	1830	935	696	2360	979	1919	980	520	913	362	834	365	3407	355	699	238	2801	634	455	599	691	142	185	3133	3233	750	459	2893	538	470	6309	1801	979	1663	516	312	482	559	1034	150	757	562	726	413	351	710	852	406	581	1895	1151	898	2001	502	787	2244	790	487	426	2750	1460	2086	654	348	3285	535	1221	650	1392	3064	455	416	264	858	714	609	317	969	497	729	443	355	1484	2398	598	399	611	2782	2281	1508	1778	2452	601	763	616	559	506	567	615	1126	272	626	638	1204	3531	1661	558	677	3873	497	748	2265	541	545	586	645	900	553	1317
2020-09-29	496	645	443	791	1407	944	1248	2343	2544	784	1027	1035	750	561	1670	1366	11610	825	2743	1417	491	4892	540	1243	517	9146	589	571	2355	388	1090	1868	480	1899	706	450	669	1371	2718	1802	480	1077	454	813	898	448	1567	1211	899	554	841	2989	2767	627	364	409	983	840	429	535	1398	4892	2448	440	545	2317	726	849	832	370	1741	317	2556	789	758	1935	2300	231	302	598	565	344	526	2109	845	988	534	494	259	620	1786	693	419	570	430	375	546	851	212	702	2263	528	668	274	701	517	1319	704	1490	476	1162	548	1255	475	1055	1768	332	992	214	457	1526	1024	718	655	1727	723	641	1726	1051	1004	779	949	865	810	931	1800	996	4549	2188	1954	1140	7989	7074	434	1610	540	489	6492	2119	754	174	323	7934	525	1244	265	222	1191	248	385	728	1529	1171	396	612	664	3553	1029	2070	164	767	350	491	350	973	1149	1716	429	435	2070	2700	423	2030	1117	761	4298	1247	1456	1835	941	702	2412	985	1942	995	523	915	374	842	371	3467	357	713	239	2837	640	459	607	693	144	188	3194	3271	757	461	2977	543	473	6403	1816	990	1687	519	315	486	564	1042	151	759	566	730	416	353	713	868	408	589	1941	1157	903	2016	506	795	2303	797	489	427	2785	1487	2100	658	350	3349	539	1226	652	1394	3108	456	418	266	867	716	611	319	970	501	736	445	357	1504	2435	601	402	614	2815	2304	1521	1792	2492	606	767	620	560	508	570	620	1147	277	628	640	1214	3598	1669	560	681	3949	500	754	2286	547	547	590	649	910	557	1337
2020-09-30	500	651	446	800	1408	947	1264	2359	2560	792	1032	1037	753	567	1681	1372	11810	832	2778	1430	494	4973	541	1254	520	9268	591	572	2374	391	1095	1880	481	1907	710	456	675	1420	2772	1824	482	1085	458	815	903	451	1574	1221	902	558	842	3016	2796	629	365	411	993	843	432	538	1426	4964	2481	449	548	2327	729	861	836	371	1753	318	2582	792	759	1957	2320	232	303	600	569	347	528	2127	850	990	534	495	260	623	1801	699	421	574	439	376	547	853	213	713	2306	531	671	275	704	522	1328	706	1535	483	1171	552	1266	477	1064	1778	334	1008	216	460	1545	1028	722	664	1745	727	643	1741	1055	1028	780	962	871	813	933	1806	1001	4615	2255	1966	1151	8122	7120	435	1619	543	497	6725	2133	756	175	326	8141	530	1248	266	224	1197	248	386	730	1551	1178	397	615	676	3677	1036	2094	165	772	355	495	354	982	1153	1759	432	438	2077	2769	425	2061	1123	767	4357	1257	1491	1840	948	709	2459	988	1968	1007	527	917	383	847	376	3521	358	730	240	2866	648	463	613	695	145	190	3255	3313	763	462	3073	550	475	6481	1830	1002	1710	520	318	489	569	1049	153	760	570	734	418	355	715	881	410	596	1985	1162	908	2031	508	801	2364	805	492	430	2821	1515	2113	662	351	3423	542	1230	654	1398	3154	458	421	268	874	717	613	321	970	505	739	447	359	1520	2470	603	405	616	2847	2334	1536	1803	2540	611	770	624	561	510	572	623	1169	280	629	642	1223	3671	1675	562	685	4031	502	759	2306	552	551	593	653	919	563	1351
2020-10-01	504	658	449	807	1410	951	1280	2379	2576	798	1038	1039	757	573	1688	1378	12020	839	2814	1443	501	5060	542	1265	523	9395	593	574	2394	394	1101	1892	482	1915	713	461	681	1467	2827	1847	486	1094	461	818	908	454	1582	1231	904	562	843	3038	2825	632	367	413	1003	847	434	541	1454	5034	2514	459	551	2337	733	874	839	373	1765	319	2603	796	759	1979	2337	232	303	602	573	350	530	2144	854	992	536	496	261	626	1816	705	422	579	449	378	548	854	215	725	2348	534	674	276	706	527	1336	709	1581	489	1180	556	1278	480	1074	1787	336	1024	217	462	1561	1030	726	672	1760	733	646	1756	1058	1051	781	974	874	816	934	1813	1007	4679	2323	1976	1163	8272	7164	436	1629	547	504	6969	2149	758	176	329	8353	534	1253	267	226	1202	249	387	732	1579	1185	397	617	686	3800	1043	2118	166	777	361	497	357	991	1159	1799	435	441	2083	2839	428	2092	1132	773	4417	1267	1524	1846	955	715	2497	992	1994	1017	531	919	393	854	381	3581	360	748	241	2906	656	466	619	698	146	192	3317	3358	768	464	3163	557	477	6562	1844	1015	1736	522	321	492	573	1055	154	761	574	738	420	357	716	894	411	601	2028	1167	914	2042	511	808	2432	812	495	432	2859	1541	2125	665	353	3497	544	1235	656	1402	3201	461	423	269	881	719	615	322	971	508	744	449	361	1537	2510	606	409	619	2880	2364	1552	1817	2588	616	774	627	563	513	575	627	1190	284	631	645	1231	3740	1681	563	690	4116	505	764	2330	557	554	597	658	929	569	1367
2020-10-02	507	665	452	812	1411	954	1295	2394	2592	806	1044	1042	760	579	1698	1383	12230	847	2843	1457	505	5143	543	1276	526	9518	594	575	2413	397	1106	1905	484	1923	717	466	687	1517	2883	1870	488	1102	465	820	913	457	1590	1242	906	565	845	3071	2855	635	369	415	1012	850	437	544	1481	5098	2546	465	554	2347	737	885	842	375	1777	321	2621	800	760	2002	2359	233	304	604	576	352	532	2162	859	995	538	497	263	629	1830	711	424	584	459	380	549	855	216	737	2392	537	677	277	708	533	1345	711	1626	495	1189	560	1289	483	1083	1794	338	1040	218	465	1577	1032	730	676	1778	738	649	1771	1062	1075	782	987	878	818	936	1820	1012	4737	2392	1988	1174	8415	7210	437	1637	550	513	7205	2164	761	178	331	8570	538	1258	268	228	1208	249	388	734	1602	1192	398	621	701	3928	1050	2144	167	782	366	500	361	1001	1164	1844	437	444	2090	2910	430	2125	1138	779	4478	1278	1541	1853	963	721	2538	996	2021	1028	535	921	402	859	386	3630	362	762	242	2941	663	469	625	700	147	193	3380	3393	772	465	3250	563	478	6643	1857	1027	1761	523	324	494	578	1062	155	762	577	741	422	359	718	905	413	609	2074	1172	919	2057	514	815	2490	819	498	434	2896	1568	2136	668	355	3573	548	1239	658	1408	3246	462	425	270	888	720	617	323	972	512	749	451	363	1553	2545	608	413	621	2909	2394	1566	1830	2636	621	777	631	564	515	577	631	1210	287	632	647	1239	3798	1688	564	694	4198	509	770	2351	561	558	599	663	939	575	1382
2020-10-03	511	671	454	816	1412	957	1309	2404	2608	812	1049	1044	763	583	1709	1389	12440	854	2879	1470	508	5231	544	1286	529	9640	594	576	2431	400	1111	1917	485	1931	720	472	693	1569	2939	1893	490	1107	469	822	916	460	1598	1252	908	569	846	3092	2885	637	370	417	1023	853	439	547	1509	5160	2579	473	555	2357	740	896	844	377	1789	322	2640	803	760	2024	2374	233	305	605	580	355	532	2179	863	997	539	498	264	633	1845	718	426	589	470	381	550	855	218	747	2436	540	681	278	710	538	1352	713	1671	501	1197	565	1300	486	1091	1801	340	1057	219	467	1590	1035	734	681	1794	742	651	1786	1065	1100	783	999	882	821	939	1825	1017	4801	2465	1997	1181	8548	7260	438	1646	554	519	7424	2178	763	179	333	8792	543	1262	268	230	1213	249	389	736	1618	1199	399	622	712	4062	1056	2166	168	786	371	503	364	1010	1169	1887	440	447	2096	2983	433	2154	1144	785	4539	1289	1570	1857	970	727	2596	999	2047	1037	539	923	410	866	391	3674	363	786	243	2968	671	472	630	702	148	195	3442	3434	778	467	3316	570	480	6725	1871	1037	1782	524	326	497	581	1068	157	763	582	745	424	360	719	917	415	614	2119	1177	925	2066	516	822	2550	827	501	436	2934	1591	2148	672	358	3650	549	1244	660	1411	3293	464	428	270	894	721	618	324	973	516	752	453	364	1564	2575	611	415	622	2929	2424	1580	1839	2686	626	781	634	565	517	580	634	1226	291	634	649	1248	3846	1694	565	698	4266	511	774	2370	566	562	603	667	949	581	1396
2020-10-04	515	678	456	820	1413	960	1325	2413	2624	818	1055	1046	766	587	1720	1394	12650	862	2908	1484	513	5311	545	1297	532	9765	596	578	2450	403	1116	1927	486	1940	722	476	699	1623	2996	1917	493	1115	473	824	920	463	1606	1262	910	573	848	3112	2914	640	372	419	1033	856	442	550	1536	5225	2613	481	557	2366	743	906	846	378	1802	323	2663	806	761	2047	2385	234	305	607	584	357	534	2194	867	998	540	499	266	636	1860	724	427	594	480	383	551	856	219	756	2481	543	684	279	713	543	1359	715	1717	507	1202	569	1311	489	1100	1807	342	1074	221	470	1603	1037	739	683	1809	746	653	1802	1069	1125	784	1012	885	824	940	1831	1023	4855	2536	2007	1189	8687	7298	439	1654	557	526	7653	2193	764	180	335	9022	548	1267	269	232	1218	250	390	738	1630	1206	400	625	723	4203	1061	2184	169	790	376	505	367	1019	1174	1933	443	449	2103	3057	435	2179	1151	792	4601	1300	1595	1860	977	733	2641	1003	2074	1048	543	925	420	870	396	3722	365	807	244	3000	679	475	636	705	149	196	3505	3474	783	468	3394	577	482	6809	1885	1045	1806	525	329	500	585	1075	158	764	586	749	426	362	721	927	417	619	2167	1182	931	2075	518	829	2599	834	503	438	2972	1616	2159	676	360	3730	552	1248	662	1414	3340	467	430	271	900	723	620	326	973	519	756	455	365	1576	2609	613	418	624	2948	2456	1594	1848	2737	630	784	638	566	520	582	638	1244	295	635	651	1255	3902	1700	566	702	4340	513	778	2389	570	566	606	672	959	587	1411
2020-10-05	519	685	459	825	1415	964	1342	2430	2640	825	1061	1047	769	593	1728	1400	12870	869	2947	1498	517	5398	546	1307	535	9897	598	579	2469	406	1121	1940	487	1948	724	481	705	1680	3055	1941	496	1124	477	826	925	466	1614	1273	912	576	849	3134	2944	643	374	421	1041	859	445	553	1569	5301	2649	489	559	2376	747	917	849	380	1815	324	2690	809	762	2071	2402	234	306	609	587	360	535	2212	871	1000	540	500	267	639	1875	730	428	598	491	384	552	858	220	765	2527	545	687	280	715	549	1367	717	1766	514	1209	573	1322	492	1110	1814	344	1090	222	472	1614	1040	743	688	1826	751	655	1817	1072	1151	784	1025	890	826	942	1837	1029	4918	2618	2021	1197	8823	7351	441	1663	561	533	7925	2208	767	181	337	9258	552	1273	270	234	1223	250	391	739	1649	1213	401	627	733	4351	1066	2208	170	795	380	508	371	1029	1182	1981	445	452	2110	3133	438	2212	1158	798	4665	1309	1640	1865	985	739	2692	1007	2102	1059	548	927	430	874	401	3776	366	828	244	3024	687	479	643	707	150	198	3570	3518	789	469	3483	584	483	6888	1900	1053	1835	526	331	502	590	1081	159	765	588	753	427	364	723	938	418	624	2215	1186	936	2089	521	836	2654	841	506	440	3009	1638	2169	679	362	3810	554	1253	664	1418	3388	469	432	272	907	724	622	328	974	523	760	457	366	1595	2645	616	420	626	2968	2487	1608	1861	2789	634	788	642	567	522	585	641	1259	299	636	653	1263	3964	1706	567	706	4436	515	784	2414	576	570	611	677	969	593	1428

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

2020-10-13

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-28 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-28