COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-22 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-22

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-22

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-1504-2108-3004-2904-0904-1604-1704-1003-2803-2504-2303-2804-1803-2705-1404-0204-1803-30 --09-09 --04-1204-18 --04-0204-1904-04 --05-0304-2003-2603-2603-3004-1604-2603-2705-1109-0704-15 -- -- --04-0803-2808-3104-0804-2103-2904-1709-0704-1604-0303-3005-05 --05-0605-0305-08 --04-1704-1105-0309-1104-02 -- -- --04-2003-2704-0304-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1204-2104-2104-1604-1604-2204-1604-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-17 --04-1804-2805-1103-27 -- --04-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-05 --03-2904-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2504-23 --04-2504-1803-2607-0103-2304-1303-2604-1304-1903-2405-03 --04-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-1004-2204-07 -- --03-2503-26 --06-1404-1303-2503-2508-25 --03-2904-2703-2203-30 --05-2403-2903-2305-0403-2503-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-30 -- --04-2903-2504-2004-18 --04-2603-2504-1805-0404-22 --04-0804-1008-02 --04-2004-1404-22 -- --03-31 --04-2904-1404-14 --04-0703-3004-2104-1004-05 --03-1904-21 --04-20 --05-1404-1709-1004-1304-1404-0505-0704-20 -- --04-1804-22 --09-0803-2603-2304-2004-23 --05-2603-2304-1504-0104-1703-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2705-0904-1604-2603-21 --04-1803-2703-2704-1403-29 --04-1504-1403-30 -- --04-2404-1003-30 --04-0604-0508-2907-26 --03-2104-0704-1505-1204-1404-2204-0204-1304-1703-2504-1104-1704-0603-25 --05-1304-2703-2504-22 --03-2303-24 --03-2404-0304-1304-1808-0205-1004-0704-1804-2009-1104-1904-1403-17 --05-0304-1509-02 --04-1404-14 --04-1504-1608-3003-2904-2004-1304-21
Peak daily increment 5 8 12 18 12 22 13 6 19 47 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 30 11 21 6 8 20 8 11 9 52 7 13 25 12 38 21 13 9 6 19 9 15 25 6 19 18 16 12 12 40 9 14 7 23 8 7 30 4 11 49 9 15 18 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 34 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 15 10 6 8 25 14 8 8 6 11 13 4 7 14 7 10 14 25 13 6 33 6 21 10 12 30 6 2 9 28 43 13 7 24 9 11 23 29 20 16 16 16 18 23 43 16 39 32 75 6 37 8 10 22 24 4 5 17 24 3 4 24 10 10 13 20 18 12 8 17 43 4 12 10 6 18 15 19 10 5 68 7 25 13 21 33 18 12 22 29 14 9 17 15 11 7 4 29 12 6 7 14 2 3 21 7 8 8 69 21 18 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 18 10 8 8 17 15 44 8 12 18 7 7 27 14 9 9 28 12 16 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 21 7 11 6 9 6 25 10 15 9 28 28 32 9 12 12 8 7 8 11 2 14 4 11 14 19 37 10 12 8 15 12 10 11 6 16 10 30
Days from 100 to peak -2 21 146 19 7 18 20 -4 10 14 34 8 25 9 40 2 25 13 154 13 8 -4 25 4 30 16 15 -6 7 27 18 14 45 161 14 3 13 152 10 28 -7 26 158 23 7 3 44 34 23 37 17 12 12 173 -7 20 15 9 21 7 -21 6 6 25 25 39 24 15 1 17 16 17 3 11 26 18 21 10 15 -3 1 16 3 -3 12 18 19 35 -21 17 20 4 1 40 14 9 -6 31 7 11 -2 18 13 17 -15 19 8 90 2 7 11 10 20 9 31 16 6 0 7 32 11 21 18 15 8 85 9 12 -2 131 8 30 -30 -8 44 8 -47 -11 11 -29 11 26 3 32 38 0 27 10 -8 19 22 -10 16 17 20 4 5 132 11 24 29 7 29 16 21 13 14 25 8 15 1 3 10 21 28 156 10 10 7 -77 -10 14 13 145 -4 12 28 35 48 -12 14 1 24 -130 14 22 7 14 -14 43 13 13 -4 27 3 18 13 5 11 5 -5 29 14 -3 6 19 153 119 -10 6 3 44 15 24 -3 15 18 1 9 13 9 36 19 -3 31 7 14 -4 9 14 16 106 36 12 24 138 20 5 7 42 23 161 10 19 13 9 154 1 19 14 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 31 43 176 43 30 32 38 30 22 21 43 17 36 24 56 25 36 24 185 27 41 17 40 27 52 37 21 17 30 39 43 21 62 182 40 33 26 175 24 41 24 40 177 43 24 21 55 59 54 67 33 30 49 186 35 41 21 33 36 21 20 16 40 33 42 61 34 24 39 61 39 45 29 41 38 38 36 39 39 44 19 26 17 15 42 43 46 61 14 43 37 39 17 57 23 31 24 41 47 22 13 39 21 44 44 42 18 106 17 43 22 34 43 21 49 33 36 11 25 51 26 30 32 22 14 91 33 20 19 163 19 43 11 18 72 21 16 54 22 10 40 43 11 44 60 18 44 17 28 43 45 16 32 50 37 31 35 138 40 39 50 26 44 34 39 28 22 37 29 29 13 34 36 63 36 185 38 37 25 53 42 32 46 177 14 16 42 50 71 21 42 27 42 27 40 53 20 38 18 59 35 43 16 41 16 25 35 27 26 36 24 40 32 18 24 29 172 136 10 28 47 61 31 48 26 30 41 17 37 50 26 21 62 45 17 40 16 22 13 20 37 41 141 62 30 52 35 184 44 32 18 55 43 182 39 41 34 32 172 28 35 36 36
Last total 244 463 591 418 734 1398 913 303 1134 2216 2387 717 988 1019 712 505 1599 1319 10405 772 2523 1310 454 4364 527 1143 497 8316 568 556 2214 372 1037 1767 470 1829 672 415 615 1055 2391 1626 448 1012 432 792 862 427 1517 1138 866 526 822 2781 2535 604 343 386 895 824 409 510 1246 246 4414 2220 373 519 2219 683 727 800 352 1657 308 2377 754 751 1780 2130 220 294 577 527 318 507 1933 804 967 522 486 246 586 1659 644 404 534 351 364 539 842 197 616 2022 484 642 260 691 467 1237 674 1203 424 1087 520 1161 452 969 1683 318 865 198 433 1394 1000 690 594 1584 682 619 1581 1015 846 766 456 844 827 788 909 1728 939 4099 1751 1857 1040 6840 6801 421 1536 511 428 5061 1996 737 162 299 6424 486 1214 254 209 1137 241 376 707 1359 1119 385 590 550 2782 959 1871 152 720 305 469 323 901 237 1114 1445 409 406 2033 2253 404 1740 1063 722 3912 1155 1256 1791 902 648 2096 946 1751 903 494 902 301 772 331 3097 348 614 230 2580 595 438 545 673 129 167 2775 2985 710 445 2437 500 452 5734 1698 896 1519 499 288 456 524 977 141 746 534 697 392 338 696 748 390 533 1672 1111 860 1905 474 743 1889 738 466 418 2513 1291 1989 630 336 2866 515 1193 635 1364 2778 446 397 251 797 697 593 307 959 463 696 433 335 70 1360 2135 581 367 592 2560 2132 1422 1696 2153 561 735 589 549 490 548 585 82 993 247 610 620 1144 3113 1602 541 646 3429 474 709 2133 507 530 559 622 828 516 1201
Last daily increment 0 3 2 3 4 3 1 0 18 15 10 6 12 4 2 8 13 10 240 5 44 13 3 107 1 6 8 113 1 0 20 2 6 11 0 9 5 10 3 39 55 26 3 7 5 14 12 2 10 7 4 5 3 28 24 1 3 3 10 1 6 1 30 0 71 31 11 2 11 2 5 2 3 11 0 12 1 0 18 23 0 0 2 3 0 3 13 2 5 0 1 2 3 13 9 0 6 21 1 0 1 3 12 45 3 9 0 6 3 16 5 45 7 10 4 10 5 14 14 1 19 0 5 17 1 3 11 21 9 3 15 3 22 2 0 8 2 1 3 6 6 76 42 15 9 134 56 0 5 2 2 175 15 2 1 0 161 1 2 1 4 6 0 1 4 22 8 1 3 4 89 5 15 3 2 6 7 3 10 0 8 30 2 6 9 59 2 19 6 4 49 4 28 7 6 8 54 11 26 13 6 1 9 8 9 55 3 11 1 28 7 8 2 1 0 2 59 50 7 2 70 4 3 53 14 17 24 0 3 1 1 5 2 3 3 8 1 2 3 13 2 8 37 6 9 17 6 9 50 6 0 3 33 15 13 3 2 77 7 12 2 1 54 1 2 1 6 0 2 2 0 4 9 0 1 0 25 28 4 2 5 24 25 19 16 57 6 4 11 2 3 1 5 0 22 1 2 1 17 77 6 0 5 67 4 4 28 5 6 1 2 9 9 22
Last week 10 22 44 17 36 11 21 6 100 92 81 40 41 20 17 30 59 67 1471 42 252 80 25 602 6 62 25 713 12 11 95 26 20 83 10 54 27 28 34 173 319 159 15 48 28 24 31 24 61 72 14 22 15 136 147 18 8 13 63 25 17 17 149 3 379 219 41 10 60 20 42 12 13 84 14 114 20 1 131 99 1 10 10 24 13 11 85 22 15 9 8 6 22 89 41 9 34 46 14 7 9 6 58 273 17 32 6 31 19 52 18 219 32 37 30 69 20 63 63 10 89 9 18 88 12 30 35 96 31 14 66 19 123 10 7 55 22 15 13 43 32 363 308 75 43 767 365 7 46 23 24 1002 112 12 2 11 866 24 36 6 14 23 2 6 10 106 42 7 20 37 569 25 128 5 22 30 15 20 59 2 51 220 15 25 55 325 21 122 48 45 347 42 158 45 58 37 223 27 153 59 23 15 34 29 24 336 17 79 5 155 56 24 28 10 2 7 320 320 35 9 349 43 11 363 67 56 146 10 16 12 25 31 13 5 21 28 7 11 11 56 9 34 272 31 37 92 20 44 230 40 14 12 194 111 80 23 21 431 20 41 11 26 272 17 10 5 39 7 13 11 4 18 30 18 10 0 124 162 20 13 16 167 197 87 78 273 29 18 30 6 15 18 25 2 73 22 8 14 54 343 42 6 31 434 20 24 168 33 25 32 39 46 33 94
Days since peak 160 154 23 146 166 159 158 165 178 181 152 178 157 179 131 173 157 176 13 163 157 173 156 171 142 155 180 180 176 159 149 179 134 15 160 167 178 22 167 154 177 158 15 159 172 176 140 139 142 137 158 164 142 11 173 155 179 172 153 175 181 183 157 159 156 132 165 179 152 150 158 160 163 154 154 159 159 153 159 152 182 176 181 181 158 157 147 134 179 159 156 160 176 134 178 170 177 160 155 180 181 155 181 152 150 157 180 83 183 162 180 162 156 182 142 158 154 191 185 142 165 153 168 181 180 100 162 181 181 28 177 148 184 176 121 177 183 141 181 179 152 153 179 154 140 176 146 181 155 157 149 181 157 141 153 167 165 51 155 161 153 175 146 161 161 168 176 154 165 170 187 154 155 131 158 12 162 161 170 138 155 157 153 14 180 183 155 152 119 183 160 174 158 181 147 146 182 153 179 136 159 149 185 157 179 179 161 177 160 161 176 151 165 176 169 170 24 58 185 168 160 133 161 153 173 162 158 181 164 158 169 181 132 148 181 153 183 182 182 172 162 157 51 135 168 157 155 11 156 161 189 142 160 20 161 161 160 159 23 177 155 162 154

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-23 to 2020-09-29

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDudleyEalingEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-22 244 463 591 418 734 1398 913 303 1134 2216 2387 717 988 1019 712 505 1599 1319 10405 772 2523 1310 454 4364 527 1143 497 8316 568 556 2214 372 1037 1767 470 1829 672 415 615 1055 2391 1626 448 1012 432 792 862 427 1517 1138 866 526 822 2781 2535 604 343 386 895 824 409 510 1246 4414 2220 373 519 2219 683 727 800 352 1657 308 2377 754 1780 2130 294 577 527 318 507 1933 804 967 522 486 246 586 1659 644 404 534 351 364 539 842 197 616 2022 484 642 260 691 467 1237 674 1203 424 1087 520 1161 452 969 1683 318 865 198 433 1394 1000 690 594 1584 682 619 1581 1015 846 766 456 844 827 788 909 1728 939 4099 1751 1857 1040 6840 6801 421 1536 511 428 5061 1996 737 299 6424 486 1214 254 209 1137 376 707 1359 1119 385 590 550 2782 959 1871 720 305 469 323 901 1114 1445 409 406 2033 2253 404 1740 1063 722 3912 1155 1256 1791 902 648 2096 946 1751 903 494 902 301 772 331 3097 348 614 2580 595 438 545 673 167 2775 2985 710 445 2437 500 452 5734 1698 896 1519 499 288 456 524 977 141 534 697 392 338 696 748 390 533 1672 1111 860 1905 474 743 1889 738 466 418 2513 1291 1989 630 336 2866 515 1193 635 1364 2778 446 397 797 697 593 307 463 696 433 335 1360 2135 581 367 592 2560 2132 1422 1696 2153 561 735 589 549 490 548 585 993 247 610 620 1144 3113 1602 541 646 3429 474 709 2133 507 530 559 622 828 516 1201
2020-09-23 246 465 597 420 740 1399 916 304 1146 2224 2398 722 993 1021 714 509 1599 1334 10650 780 2571 1323 458 4456 528 1153 501 8428 570 558 2226 375 1042 1778 471 1836 676 423 621 1088 2446 1652 450 1018 436 800 870 430 1524 1149 869 526 825 2781 2560 607 345 388 903 827 411 513 1274 4477 2257 382 520 2228 685 727 802 354 1668 309 2403 757 1800 2133 295 579 530 320 509 1938 808 969 522 487 247 589 1672 648 406 538 361 366 540 842 198 626 2063 487 650 261 694 470 1244 677 1268 428 1097 524 1171 452 977 1692 319 881 199 438 1406 1003 696 600 1596 686 622 1593 1018 874 767 457 852 832 791 911 1733 943 4219 1766 1869 1046 6990 6859 422 1544 514 432 5240 2013 739 301 6603 489 1214 255 211 1141 377 709 1385 1125 386 593 558 2868 963 1888 724 311 472 326 908 1114 1458 409 409 2042 2293 406 1757 1071 722 3999 1161 1271 1798 909 652 2166 950 1771 915 499 905 308 777 337 3166 350 617 2604 604 441 550 675 168 2852 3037 716 446 2500 507 454 5748 1706 902 1545 500 290 458 528 983 142 537 700 393 340 698 756 391 538 1709 1115 864 1917 478 750 1945 744 468 421 2571 1310 2001 633 338 2935 517 1204 638 1366 2845 449 399 802 698 594 308 465 700 435 336 1360 2177 584 369 594 2582 2165 1434 1708 2218 565 738 592 551 492 551 587 1002 251 611 623 1151 3203 1608 542 650 3505 477 712 2162 510 534 563 626 836 521 1220
2020-09-24 248 468 602 423 745 1400 919 304 1157 2237 2408 728 998 1023 716 513 1599 1348 10890 789 2620 1336 461 4545 529 1163 504 8596 571 559 2238 377 1046 1788 473 1843 680 429 626 1109 2502 1679 452 1025 439 807 878 433 1530 1160 871 526 828 2798 2585 610 347 389 911 830 412 516 1301 4537 2295 391 521 2236 687 727 805 356 1678 311 2422 760 1820 2144 296 580 532 322 511 1942 812 971 522 488 248 592 1685 652 408 542 377 368 541 844 199 635 2102 490 657 261 696 472 1251 679 1332 432 1101 528 1181 452 985 1702 320 896 201 443 1418 1005 701 605 1608 690 625 1605 1020 901 769 458 860 836 795 912 1737 948 4323 1793 1879 1051 7143 6914 423 1552 518 436 5449 2029 741 303 6787 493 1214 256 213 1146 378 711 1408 1131 387 595 566 2959 966 1904 727 316 475 330 913 1121 1469 409 411 2052 2359 409 1773 1079 722 4090 1166 1298 1804 916 656 2226 953 1790 926 503 908 314 781 343 3235 351 629 2627 614 445 555 677 169 2903 3097 721 448 2582 513 455 5762 1714 907 1571 502 292 461 531 988 143 541 703 395 341 700 764 392 543 1747 1119 869 1929 481 756 1998 749 471 424 2632 1329 2013 637 340 3004 519 1213 641 1369 2907 452 401 806 699 595 309 468 703 437 337 1373 2215 586 371 596 2603 2198 1444 1718 2266 569 742 595 552 495 555 589 1011 254 613 627 1159 3291 1613 542 654 3591 479 715 2189 514 538 567 630 843 525 1237
2020-09-25 249 470 607 425 750 1402 922 305 1169 2250 2418 733 1003 1025 719 516 1608 1361 11140 797 2669 1349 464 4635 530 1173 507 8754 572 561 2250 379 1051 1799 474 1851 684 436 632 1140 2559 1706 454 1034 442 815 885 436 1537 1171 874 528 831 2822 2609 613 349 391 918 832 414 519 1327 4596 2333 400 522 2245 690 727 807 358 1688 312 2433 763 1839 2162 297 582 535 324 513 1947 816 973 523 489 249 595 1697 656 409 545 394 370 542 845 200 645 2141 493 665 262 699 475 1258 682 1379 436 1107 532 1191 452 993 1711 321 911 202 448 1429 1008 707 610 1619 694 627 1616 1022 928 770 459 867 841 798 914 1742 952 4422 1823 1891 1056 7299 6969 424 1559 521 439 5652 2045 743 306 6973 496 1214 257 215 1150 379 713 1431 1137 388 598 573 3077 970 1921 731 321 478 333 920 1127 1481 410 413 2061 2422 411 1790 1086 722 4186 1171 1327 1811 923 660 2288 956 1809 938 508 911 321 786 348 3306 353 638 2649 623 448 560 679 170 2970 3152 727 449 2662 520 457 5777 1721 913 1598 503 294 463 535 994 144 544 706 396 343 701 772 394 548 1786 1123 873 1940 485 762 2039 754 473 427 2695 1346 2025 640 342 3076 521 1222 645 1373 2981 454 403 811 700 596 310 470 706 439 338 1390 2252 589 373 598 2624 2231 1455 1730 2320 572 745 598 554 497 558 592 1019 257 614 630 1166 3375 1619 543 658 3668 482 717 2222 517 543 571 635 850 529 1255
2020-09-26 251 472 613 427 755 1403 924 306 1179 2261 2428 738 1007 1026 721 520 1617 1374 11400 806 2720 1361 468 4723 531 1182 511 8897 574 562 2260 382 1056 1809 476 1858 688 442 637 1173 2617 1733 455 1039 446 822 892 439 1543 1182 876 532 834 2836 2633 616 350 393 925 835 416 522 1353 4652 2372 409 522 2253 692 727 809 359 1698 313 2446 766 1858 2174 297 583 538 326 515 1951 820 975 523 490 250 598 1710 660 411 549 410 371 543 845 201 654 2179 495 672 263 701 478 1265 684 1428 440 1114 535 1201 452 1000 1720 322 925 203 452 1441 1011 712 615 1630 697 630 1628 1025 956 772 460 875 846 801 916 1747 956 4522 1863 1901 1061 7459 7022 425 1567 524 443 5846 2061 745 308 7165 499 1214 259 217 1154 380 715 1453 1143 389 601 581 3178 974 1936 735 326 481 336 925 1136 1492 410 415 2070 2477 414 1805 1094 722 4285 1177 1367 1817 929 664 2350 959 1827 948 512 913 328 790 354 3378 354 645 2672 633 451 564 681 171 3025 3206 732 450 2715 526 458 5791 1728 918 1625 504 295 465 538 999 145 548 708 397 345 703 779 395 553 1826 1127 877 1951 488 768 2094 759 475 430 2761 1363 2036 643 343 3148 522 1231 647 1375 3047 457 405 815 701 597 312 472 709 441 339 1404 2283 591 375 600 2644 2263 1465 1740 2382 576 748 601 556 499 561 594 1027 260 615 633 1173 3446 1624 543 662 3736 484 720 2246 520 546 574 639 857 533 1271
2020-09-27 253 474 618 429 761 1404 927 306 1190 2272 2438 744 1012 1028 723 523 1625 1387 11660 814 2772 1374 471 4812 531 1192 514 9052 575 564 2271 384 1060 1819 477 1864 691 447 643 1202 2676 1762 457 1049 449 829 899 442 1549 1193 878 537 837 2850 2657 619 352 394 932 838 417 525 1379 4709 2412 418 523 2262 694 727 810 361 1708 314 2466 769 1877 2186 298 584 540 328 517 1955 824 978 523 491 251 601 1722 664 413 553 431 373 544 847 202 664 2217 498 680 263 703 480 1272 687 1484 443 1116 539 1210 452 1008 1729 323 939 204 457 1452 1013 718 620 1642 701 633 1639 1027 984 773 460 882 850 804 917 1751 960 4614 1905 1912 1066 7622 7075 426 1574 528 446 6041 2076 746 310 7362 503 1214 260 219 1158 381 716 1474 1149 389 603 588 3307 977 1952 738 330 484 340 931 1139 1503 410 417 2080 2537 416 1821 1101 722 4386 1182 1400 1823 936 668 2414 962 1846 959 516 916 335 794 359 3452 356 649 2694 643 455 569 683 171 3068 3253 737 452 2772 533 459 5806 1735 923 1653 506 297 468 542 1005 146 551 711 399 346 705 787 396 558 1867 1130 881 1962 492 774 2129 765 478 433 2828 1380 2048 646 345 3221 524 1240 650 1379 3119 460 407 819 702 598 313 475 712 443 340 1416 2316 594 377 602 2664 2295 1475 1751 2446 579 751 604 557 502 564 596 1035 264 617 637 1180 3520 1629 544 666 3798 487 723 2263 523 550 578 643 863 537 1288
2020-09-28 255 477 623 431 766 1405 930 307 1201 2292 2448 749 1016 1030 725 527 1632 1400 11930 822 2825 1387 474 4902 532 1202 518 9224 576 565 2282 386 1065 1829 479 1871 695 453 648 1237 2736 1790 459 1056 452 837 905 445 1556 1204 881 538 840 2872 2681 622 354 396 939 840 419 528 1404 4766 2453 426 524 2270 696 727 812 363 1717 316 2482 772 1896 2204 299 586 543 330 519 1959 828 980 524 492 253 604 1734 668 414 556 448 375 545 849 203 673 2254 501 687 264 706 483 1278 689 1532 447 1122 542 1220 452 1015 1738 324 954 205 461 1464 1016 723 625 1653 704 635 1651 1029 1014 774 461 890 855 808 919 1756 965 4705 1957 1923 1071 7789 7129 427 1582 531 450 6220 2092 748 312 7565 506 1214 261 221 1163 382 718 1496 1154 390 606 596 3432 981 1968 741 335 487 343 937 1151 1515 410 419 2089 2619 418 1837 1109 722 4490 1188 1443 1830 942 672 2480 965 1864 970 521 919 342 799 365 3528 357 653 2716 652 458 574 685 172 3121 3294 743 453 2847 539 461 5820 1742 928 1681 507 299 470 545 1010 147 554 713 400 348 706 794 397 563 1908 1134 885 1972 496 781 2177 770 480 436 2897 1397 2059 649 347 3297 525 1248 653 1385 3189 463 409 823 703 599 314 477 715 445 340 1441 2352 596 379 604 2685 2327 1485 1762 2503 583 754 606 559 504 568 598 1043 267 618 640 1187 3585 1635 545 670 3873 489 725 2300 526 554 581 647 870 541 1304
2020-09-29 256 479 629 433 771 1406 933 307 1212 2305 2458 754 1021 1032 727 530 1641 1413 12200 831 2879 1399 478 4993 533 1212 521 9385 578 567 2293 388 1070 1840 480 1878 699 459 654 1277 2798 1819 461 1064 456 844 912 448 1562 1215 883 541 842 2891 2705 625 356 398 946 843 420 531 1430 4823 2494 435 525 2279 698 727 814 365 1727 317 2499 775 1915 2220 300 587 545 332 521 1963 832 982 524 493 254 606 1747 672 416 560 463 376 546 850 204 683 2292 504 695 265 708 485 1285 691 1574 451 1130 546 1230 452 1022 1747 326 968 207 466 1475 1019 729 630 1664 708 638 1662 1032 1043 776 462 897 860 811 920 1760 969 4799 2009 1933 1076 7960 7183 428 1589 534 453 6404 2108 750 315 7773 510 1214 262 223 1167 382 720 1518 1160 391 608 604 3518 984 1984 745 340 490 346 942 1159 1526 411 421 2098 2678 421 1853 1116 722 4597 1193 1472 1836 949 676 2548 968 1883 980 525 922 349 803 370 3605 359 666 2739 662 461 579 687 173 3173 3344 748 454 2920 545 462 5834 1749 933 1710 508 300 472 548 1016 148 558 716 401 350 708 802 398 568 1951 1138 888 1983 499 787 2231 775 482 439 2968 1415 2071 652 349 3374 527 1257 656 1386 3257 465 411 827 704 600 315 479 718 447 341 1460 2378 599 381 606 2705 2360 1495 1772 2564 587 757 609 561 506 571 600 1052 270 619 644 1194 3644 1640 545 674 3963 492 728 2329 529 558 585 651 877 546 1321

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-23 to 2020-09-29

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDudleyEalingEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-09-22 244 463 591 418 734 1398 913 303 1134 2216 2387 717 988 1019 712 505 1599 1319 10405 772 2523 1310 454 4364 527 1143 497 8316 568 556 2214 372 1037 1767 470 1829 672 415 615 1055 2391 1626 448 1012 432 792 862 427 1517 1138 866 526 822 2781 2535 604 343 386 895 824 409 510 1246 4414 2220 373 519 2219 683 727 800 352 1657 308 2377 754 1780 2130 294 577 527 318 507 1933 804 967 522 486 246 586 1659 644 404 534 351 364 539 842 197 616 2022 484 642 260 691 467 1237 674 1203 424 1087 520 1161 452 969 1683 318 865 198 433 1394 1000 690 594 1584 682 619 1581 1015 846 766 456 844 827 788 909 1728 939 4099 1751 1857 1040 6840 6801 421 1536 511 428 5061 1996 737 299 6424 486 1214 254 209 1137 376 707 1359 1119 385 590 550 2782 959 1871 720 305 469 323 901 1114 1445 409 406 2033 2253 404 1740 1063 722 3912 1155 1256 1791 902 648 2096 946 1751 903 494 902 301 772 331 3097 348 614 2580 595 438 545 673 167 2775 2985 710 445 2437 500 452 5734 1698 896 1519 499 288 456 524 977 141 534 697 392 338 696 748 390 533 1672 1111 860 1905 474 743 1889 738 466 418 2513 1291 1989 630 336 2866 515 1193 635 1364 2778 446 397 797 697 593 307 463 696 433 335 1360 2135 581 367 592 2560 2132 1422 1696 2153 561 735 589 549 490 548 585 993 247 610 620 1144 3113 1602 541 646 3429 474 709 2133 507 530 559 622 828 516 1201
2020-09-23 246 465 596 419 738 1399 915 303 1139 2219 2394 721 989 1020 714 506 1600 1323 10650 779 2580 1323 457 4432 528 1152 498 8455 568 557 2218 373 1041 1772 471 1832 673 418 619 1068 2439 1653 449 1017 435 793 863 429 1522 1145 867 526 824 2785 2550 606 344 387 902 827 409 512 1255 4437 2254 378 519 2224 684 729 801 353 1667 309 2398 756 1794 2134 294 578 528 319 509 1939 807 967 522 487 247 588 1669 647 406 537 353 365 539 842 198 622 2058 485 644 260 692 468 1239 675 1225 427 1093 522 1168 453 971 1687 319 872 199 435 1401 1002 694 596 1589 683 621 1591 1017 866 767 457 848 831 791 910 1731 942 4182 1786 1860 1043 6983 6850 421 1544 514 431 5208 2006 738 300 6564 490 1215 254 210 1141 377 708 1362 1122 385 591 554 2845 961 1880 723 307 471 325 904 1116 1465 411 407 2039 2283 406 1749 1068 730 3970 1159 1266 1793 905 650 2137 947 1769 906 496 904 303 774 332 3135 349 626 2594 604 440 549 674 167 2834 3030 713 446 2468 506 452 5764 1701 898 1535 500 288 459 527 982 141 537 698 393 339 696 753 391 538 1712 1114 861 1909 476 748 1938 743 468 420 2545 1301 1999 633 337 2921 515 1195 636 1365 2825 449 399 799 698 595 307 465 696 434 335 1361 2156 582 368 593 2571 2152 1426 1701 2203 563 738 590 550 492 550 586 998 250 611 621 1145 3157 1605 541 649 3512 475 710 2162 508 532 560 625 834 518 1207
2020-09-24 248 467 601 421 742 1400 918 304 1152 2228 2405 726 991 1021 715 507 1603 1327 10910 788 2632 1336 460 4533 528 1162 501 8622 569 558 2227 375 1047 1780 472 1839 675 422 624 1091 2499 1682 451 1024 439 794 864 432 1527 1155 869 527 825 2797 2570 608 345 388 909 829 410 515 1266 4478 2294 386 520 2232 686 733 804 354 1679 310 2419 760 1811 2143 295 579 530 321 511 1946 811 968 523 488 248 590 1682 649 407 541 357 367 540 843 199 630 2106 487 647 261 693 470 1242 675 1259 431 1098 525 1177 455 975 1695 319 882 200 437 1415 1004 700 600 1599 685 624 1603 1019 889 768 457 855 835 794 912 1734 947 4265 1835 1864 1047 7126 6901 422 1551 518 434 5384 2018 739 302 6723 494 1217 255 211 1145 377 709 1369 1127 386 593 561 2917 964 1896 727 309 473 328 909 1120 1498 412 407 2047 2332 408 1766 1074 741 4039 1164 1284 1797 910 654 2178 948 1788 909 497 907 305 777 334 3207 350 643 2616 615 442 554 676 167 2891 3092 717 447 2526 512 453 5809 1707 899 1562 501 290 460 531 988 142 540 699 394 341 697 759 392 542 1758 1118 864 1916 478 755 1989 749 470 423 2587 1313 2009 637 338 2986 515 1197 638 1367 2878 451 401 802 698 596 308 467 698 436 336 1367 2183 583 370 594 2590 2180 1436 1709 2250 566 741 591 551 494 554 586 1006 254 612 626 1151 3213 1610 542 654 3608 476 711 2193 510 536 562 629 842 521 1217
2020-09-25 250 469 607 423 747 1401 922 304 1162 2239 2415 730 993 1023 717 509 1607 1331 11180 797 2683 1349 463 4630 529 1172 504 8781 569 560 2238 377 1052 1790 474 1846 678 425 629 1120 2554 1710 452 1033 442 795 865 436 1532 1166 870 528 827 2817 2591 611 347 389 913 833 411 518 1278 4525 2334 392 521 2241 689 736 806 356 1691 311 2434 763 1828 2155 296 580 532 324 513 1954 816 970 524 488 249 592 1695 653 410 546 361 369 541 843 199 639 2153 489 650 262 695 472 1247 676 1290 435 1104 529 1187 458 982 1701 321 891 201 439 1429 1006 705 605 1612 687 625 1614 1021 912 769 458 862 840 797 914 1738 951 4348 1885 1872 1053 7268 6963 422 1559 522 438 5566 2030 741 303 6887 498 1220 256 212 1149 378 711 1376 1133 386 596 567 3002 967 1911 730 311 476 331 915 1125 1532 414 408 2055 2389 410 1783 1080 751 4110 1169 1306 1802 915 657 2225 948 1808 914 499 910 309 781 335 3286 352 658 2638 626 445 559 678 168 2957 3148 721 448 2586 518 454 5857 1714 902 1589 502 292 463 535 994 143 544 700 395 343 699 766 393 547 1806 1124 868 1926 481 761 2027 755 473 426 2630 1326 2020 640 340 3058 516 1200 640 1370 2935 454 402 807 699 598 309 469 701 438 336 1376 2211 586 371 595 2611 2208 1446 1722 2300 569 744 591 552 497 557 588 1013 257 613 629 1159 3269 1615 543 660 3698 477 712 2229 515 540 564 634 850 525 1228
2020-09-26 252 471 613 425 751 1402 924 305 1174 2249 2425 735 996 1024 719 512 1614 1335 11450 807 2731 1362 467 4737 530 1181 507 8929 570 561 2249 379 1056 1800 475 1853 680 429 634 1150 2607 1741 454 1039 446 796 866 439 1537 1176 872 530 828 2834 2612 613 348 390 923 835 412 521 1295 4575 2375 399 521 2248 690 740 807 357 1702 313 2447 766 1845 2167 297 581 534 326 514 1962 819 972 524 489 250 594 1707 657 411 550 366 371 543 844 200 648 2199 491 653 262 697 474 1253 678 1321 439 1111 532 1196 460 988 1708 322 901 202 442 1440 1008 710 610 1624 690 627 1626 1024 936 770 459 870 842 800 916 1742 955 4431 1939 1881 1056 7415 7021 423 1567 526 442 5742 2042 742 304 7054 502 1224 257 214 1153 379 713 1384 1138 387 599 573 3095 971 1929 733 313 479 334 920 1131 1565 416 409 2064 2445 412 1799 1087 762 4190 1175 1340 1805 921 662 2280 950 1828 919 501 912 314 785 337 3330 353 675 2661 637 447 563 679 168 3020 3205 726 449 2639 525 455 5904 1722 906 1620 503 294 465 538 999 143 548 702 397 344 700 774 394 551 1855 1128 872 1935 483 767 2076 761 476 429 2676 1339 2029 644 343 3131 517 1203 642 1372 2993 457 404 811 700 600 309 472 703 440 337 1387 2239 588 373 597 2630 2236 1457 1731 2353 572 747 592 553 499 560 590 1020 261 614 631 1165 3323 1620 544 664 3773 479 714 2262 518 544 566 638 857 529 1239
2020-09-27 253 473 619 427 756 1403 927 305 1186 2258 2435 740 1000 1026 721 515 1621 1339 11730 816 2780 1376 470 4822 531 1190 510 9081 570 562 2261 382 1062 1809 476 1860 683 433 639 1180 2660 1771 455 1047 449 798 867 441 1542 1187 873 533 830 2848 2632 616 349 391 933 838 413 524 1308 4629 2417 405 522 2255 692 745 809 359 1713 314 2466 769 1863 2178 297 583 536 328 515 1970 823 974 526 490 251 597 1720 661 412 553 372 372 544 845 201 657 2245 493 656 263 699 477 1259 679 1353 444 1115 536 1207 463 995 1715 323 911 203 444 1452 1012 715 615 1636 694 629 1638 1026 961 771 460 877 847 804 917 1745 960 4506 1995 1890 1058 7557 7057 424 1575 530 445 5918 2056 744 307 7226 506 1228 258 216 1157 380 714 1393 1144 387 601 580 3195 974 1945 736 316 481 337 926 1136 1601 418 410 2072 2504 414 1816 1094 773 4270 1181 1363 1810 928 666 2325 951 1849 925 503 915 319 788 339 3387 355 688 2685 649 450 568 681 169 3077 3256 733 450 2690 531 456 5952 1729 910 1648 504 295 467 542 1005 144 552 704 398 346 702 782 395 556 1904 1131 876 1942 486 773 2117 767 478 432 2721 1353 2039 647 345 3206 518 1207 643 1375 3048 460 406 815 701 602 310 474 706 442 338 1397 2264 590 375 598 2647 2264 1468 1741 2412 576 750 593 555 501 563 592 1027 265 615 634 1172 3373 1625 544 671 3845 481 717 2292 520 547 568 642 865 533 1251
2020-09-28 255 476 624 429 761 1404 930 306 1197 2273 2445 745 1004 1027 723 519 1626 1344 12010 825 2828 1389 474 4921 531 1200 513 9243 572 564 2272 384 1067 1820 477 1867 686 436 644 1211 2716 1801 457 1055 453 800 868 444 1548 1199 875 535 831 2863 2652 618 351 392 941 841 415 527 1323 4681 2460 412 524 2263 694 750 811 360 1725 315 2484 772 1882 2194 298 585 538 330 517 1977 827 976 527 491 252 600 1733 666 414 557 378 374 545 846 202 665 2291 495 660 264 701 479 1265 680 1387 449 1122 539 1216 465 1003 1722 324 921 204 446 1462 1016 721 620 1648 698 633 1649 1028 986 772 461 885 852 807 918 1749 964 4577 2055 1902 1062 7706 7113 424 1583 534 449 6098 2069 747 309 7403 510 1232 258 218 1162 381 716 1406 1150 388 603 585 3296 978 1963 740 319 484 339 932 1142 1635 420 412 2080 2568 416 1835 1100 785 4352 1186 1389 1815 935 670 2375 953 1871 931 504 917 324 792 341 3454 357 699 2704 660 454 573 683 169 3135 3300 739 451 2755 538 458 6000 1737 914 1678 505 297 469 546 1010 144 555 706 399 348 703 791 396 561 1951 1134 880 1952 489 780 2172 772 481 435 2766 1368 2049 650 346 3284 519 1212 645 1378 3105 463 408 820 702 604 311 477 709 444 338 1412 2290 592 376 599 2666 2293 1479 1752 2468 579 753 594 557 504 567 594 1034 269 616 638 1179 3427 1631 545 676 3932 483 720 2331 524 551 572 646 873 537 1263
2020-09-29 257 478 630 431 765 1406 933 306 1207 2283 2455 749 1008 1028 725 522 1631 1349 12300 835 2881 1403 479 5021 532 1209 517 9401 572 565 2283 386 1074 1830 479 1874 689 442 649 1244 2777 1830 459 1064 457 802 870 447 1554 1210 876 537 832 2878 2672 621 352 393 949 844 417 530 1339 4729 2501 420 525 2271 696 754 813 362 1736 317 2506 775 1900 2206 299 586 541 333 519 1985 831 978 528 492 253 602 1746 670 415 561 384 376 546 846 204 674 2336 497 663 264 704 481 1270 681 1418 453 1128 543 1226 467 1010 1728 325 932 205 448 1474 1020 726 626 1661 702 636 1661 1031 1011 773 462 893 857 810 920 1752 969 4660 2113 1912 1067 7856 7170 425 1590 538 453 6281 2082 749 311 7583 515 1235 259 220 1166 381 717 1418 1156 388 605 590 3395 981 1978 743 321 487 342 938 1149 1669 422 413 2089 2625 418 1851 1107 796 4428 1192 1406 1818 942 674 2432 955 1892 937 506 920 328 795 343 3509 358 716 2726 672 457 578 685 170 3199 3354 743 452 2817 544 459 6049 1745 918 1712 506 299 472 549 1016 145 558 708 401 349 705 798 397 566 2001 1138 884 1959 491 786 2220 779 483 438 2815 1383 2060 653 348 3362 520 1216 647 1380 3165 466 410 824 703 606 312 479 713 446 339 1423 2316 595 377 601 2683 2322 1489 1762 2528 582 756 595 559 506 570 595 1043 273 617 641 1187 3474 1636 545 680 4039 485 722 2366 527 555 574 650 881 542 1274

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.