COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-05-11 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-05-11

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-05-11

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-02-062022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-272022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252021-12-282022-03-232022-03-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222021-12-282022-03-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242021-12-292022-03-222021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-02-062022-03-222022-04-062022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-02-062022-02-062022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-02-062022-03-192022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-142022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-02-062021-12-292022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-03-212022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-282022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-03-162022-03-262022-02-062022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-162022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-222021-12-272022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-05-042022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-04-192022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-03-222022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-242022-03-232022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-162022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-212022-01-242022-03-232022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-02-222022-01-242022-01-242022-02-062022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-05-04
Peak daily increment 3862 5285 543 1126 1275 1525 804 437 780 1774 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 134 398 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 266 1199 253 17521 1550 3317 165 319 97 205 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 79 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 153 2002 167 611 195 234 273 132 1418 251 1362 119 1222 456 433 192 2422 2091 214 270 562 4793 1173 962 949 1524 7754 684 302 56 62 774 71 3960 513 7900 4326 70 1426 372 1559 1550 131 862 267 3466 481 896 4767 2335 1159 307 2036 1878 312 1747 663 1048 1254 885 1468 1093 1560 891 1505 441 158 1625 976 1274 71 1353 3625 1652 982 152 1007 2291 930 917 560 6120 103 1022 779 105 2871 147 6944 1464 848 1510 117 3360 1261 77 3318 173 120 194 1115 3254 1188 224 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 287 1188 1044 2486 274 131 1158 3872 1474 1689 886 1209 234 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 274 2021 423 185 4514 1732 837 234 803 3519 136 1238 694 9205 172 1963 580 540 462 146 3625 516 696 246 2554 147 650 1251 1058 648 2802 1347 3381 825 68 1495 532 1263 162 4887 167 230 105 1141 1531 659 963 1941 1111 180 3559 220 131 1868 297 835 131 2965 442 1403 274 1790 56 4269 264 210 83 57 2223 3085 535 331 74 2466 197 234 2322 108 1632 1804 1026 60 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 290 142 892 158 145 51 75 4748 5886 141 1365 1073 4438 126 1175 907 632 530 2347 2862 1130 1408 87 1599 147 2982 170 863 1470 162 4031 1059 875 1101 128 1007 129 2510 3022 2379 330 1253 1583 227 196 134 992 1278 3842 3631 293 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 116 2290 3757 94 844 990 249 1394 1055 812 237 1025 2766 1234 1351 341 431 5344 3306 1034 878 102 1143 361 250 3811 4283 279 217 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 808 1620 922 2543 862 1416 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 1307 1823 241 139 796 98 1077 2155 132 129 260
Days since peak 94 94 107 107 107 94 107 135 94 107 107 107 107 107 107 49 50 107 107 107 107 107 107 50 107 50 107 107 107 47 134 49 43 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 50 107 107 107 107 107 107 50 107 50 134 48 50 50 49 107 50 107 51 107 133 50 133 107 107 50 50 50 107 107 107 107 107 94 94 50 35 49 107 49 107 107 107 107 45 107 50 107 107 50 107 133 107 107 133 107 107 107 49 94 94 50 94 107 107 94 107 107 107 94 107 94 50 49 107 107 107 50 107 107 107 107 49 107 94 107 107 133 94 53 107 107 50 107 49 78 107 107 107 48 107 107 58 107 50 49 50 107 107 107 50 107 107 107 107 107 107 50 107 107 94 50 47 107 107 107 107 94 107 134 107 107 107 107 107 48 107 50 50 107 107 50 50 107 107 47 107 107 107 48 107 107 107 50 49 107 107 107 135 107 49 107 107 107 107 107 94 107 107 51 94 133 107 50 107 49 50 51 107 94 107 107 107 107 50 78 50 50 107 50 107 50 107 50 107 50 107 44 107 94 50 56 46 94 107 50 50 56 107 50 49 107 49 107 78 135 49 107 107 107 107 107 107 50 50 107 50 50 48 50 107 107 7 94 107 107 50 107 22 94 50 107 107 107 94 50 107 45 107 50 107 107 50 94 107 107 107 50 107 46 107 107 107 50 107 107 47 48 49 107 94 107 107 46 107 107 107 107 107 107 56 107 107 49 107 107 49 107 107 107 50 107 107 107 107 133 107 107 107 107 107 51 107 49 46 107 107 50 50 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 78 107 107 94 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 107 49 50 107 50 107 107 50 50 7
Last total 71457 79320 19539 31605 40843 36290 55062 54992 24548 81522 48936 42700 43051 67531 26257 69283 126043 89817 25062 66121 58149 39740 60613 64423 128793 81620 346148 35627 56305 49596 21251 26495 94858 20999 134663 42827 172826 49460 39013 101895 26576 40793 95824 168156 39978 108790 33727 32548 37824 32917 66256 51295 67201 43712 72118 34702 47342 102743 36565 47830 30781 47390 98306 12845 61658 61750 37025 52789 130270 120748 34108 35413 31893 41404 182128 20097 65236 7843 26371 23327 26893 158814 23981 183157 111694 16767 40680 124174 51487 38090 40260 28119 24571 86625 20012 62143 108299 106626 35381 109076 44619 53397 119025 49149 27115 42469 43520 37275 50234 38025 36937 29144 38636 106620 41371 68736 32822 45687 14622 49269 96677 44115 28193 37682 42421 61610 36248 31140 42510 127909 38999 34182 23979 26191 70090 40758 237551 42767 27225 36831 31000 90481 47104 26937 90220 49326 26843 63426 30853 83212 32439 52949 81586 33191 33887 29631 39421 89655 52851 37602 29750 68485 101092 37182 44845 94754 56713 29087 29610 45070 14787 40405 74352 44770 35361 44355 90433 59942 138817 59899 111986 46652 275624 120483 30474 95916 35184 33503 54914 176312 75364 57326 20059 20346 193447 38074 94249 16304 33542 19299 72450 23835 28629 50869 56354 47868 52958 34222 98183 27687 20015 27648 42545 50185 39379 106940 41860 107228 44151 68050 49976 29082 32681 52968 43394 36110 140692 53567 23869 69350 78124 21538 34424 79485 107275 44967 109879 46170 20144 79305 5303 52553 26246 30774 46809 74535 89232 71680 26281 51644 57693 100402 47748 29131 53543 73462 71182 21236 66588 15280 76967 28950 24545 25977 93408 39185 28916 41517 35246 11756 14170 96029 110572 31327 32349 38279 99002 29875 39058 189068 6750 97254 51896 73220 45856 38975 23579 52280 36561 97719 24361 27892 45066 28630 130442 40916 30342 46107 39372 48776 36743 54725 82140 61302 102426 35780 52456 67027 45958 30694 29974 32296 103434 71746 88333 40596 35114 99652 31285 73198 49041 68464 73531 80582 27278 29523 39379 63326 45231 41750 29420 44813 32573 62546 43144 43584 26949 18901 106357 85285 37701 29461 36842 43600 117982 93636 90070 116872 77326 48428 35124 41878 46575 26258 39688 49736 14786 35918 38702 29069 68653 34434 50220 68165 116584 151463 40211 51468 113041 36373 59578 89108 33371 35213 37836 38433 58433 36476 31100 65420
Last daily increment 35 36 9 8 17 18 0 0 12 0 15 11 7 18 6 13 39 27 5 16 14 15 23 23 0 27 88 12 13 14 0 6 22 9 41 23 59 10 19 29 16 4 40 57 16 35 11 13 13 5 24 3 22 31 39 11 11 10 12 0 5 0 59 2 20 19 20 20 79 66 17 21 11 13 63 7 41 5 1 12 7 66 10 66 33 8 11 27 22 8 10 9 2 40 5 0 25 48 5 26 13 14 33 13 13 14 14 21 18 10 13 10 3 52 19 29 10 17 7 14 26 15 7 20 18 16 19 9 0 49 5 21 11 3 19 10 70 15 13 5 10 28 22 0 25 21 10 21 9 36 12 27 26 12 10 9 14 24 28 10 8 29 27 14 34 32 23 8 8 14 2 11 37 18 22 9 34 16 41 25 31 10 87 28 7 26 7 14 0 49 28 15 12 8 55 14 28 6 9 3 21 6 10 28 0 0 18 8 29 16 3 12 6 21 12 45 19 19 4 0 19 11 16 19 17 13 32 24 9 33 40 4 16 19 41 18 53 15 4 9 3 22 1 8 19 20 27 24 0 11 19 31 15 9 19 27 4 3 17 5 17 5 8 14 28 12 9 19 9 11 5 28 25 7 15 10 39 18 6 87 10 46 7 25 20 12 8 21 10 44 11 7 20 8 27 31 9 18 8 16 11 24 30 14 28 18 13 24 18 6 10 7 42 12 30 19 14 48 12 19 20 2 23 17 10 9 13 31 17 17 9 18 13 28 14 12 1 10 22 19 12 15 1 14 39 25 24 44 22 20 17 21 24 7 19 23 3 4 9 20 25 11 21 24 46 58 29 21 40 12 23 28 8 14 2 13 22 9 5 22
Last week 272 279 64 86 100 110 111 142 96 130 106 98 64 155 57 114 328 169 63 107 129 121 124 175 230 186 641 84 96 125 13 62 176 45 342 118 296 101 141 171 72 31 227 393 133 241 79 67 101 52 135 24 131 170 217 67 121 64 84 22 65 71 323 18 142 126 87 138 431 359 94 103 87 78 645 47 175 38 24 75 54 485 71 531 223 47 86 252 137 85 78 68 9 218 37 38 189 341 59 206 175 105 241 126 85 91 123 129 137 117 128 61 81 306 101 209 66 146 53 90 160 82 63 115 143 179 128 66 42 416 18 85 74 70 161 83 712 101 70 50 71 228 131 23 156 95 72 152 93 173 66 132 196 71 83 61 112 170 173 84 62 262 281 98 141 186 190 44 69 77 13 74 173 116 96 118 212 123 271 127 229 111 605 197 93 205 80 105 109 379 183 145 51 71 402 89 223 29 95 15 173 62 73 154 54 95 122 81 188 87 13 82 30 163 118 286 120 154 23 82 155 88 98 154 124 99 339 170 62 186 238 43 88 116 296 115 232 87 38 102 26 157 25 50 163 151 194 206 8 131 144 168 131 56 112 208 28 45 173 37 148 43 56 87 186 101 71 117 84 31 22 183 168 62 105 90 259 85 73 536 62 256 81 156 111 109 60 161 75 226 76 52 108 86 395 131 56 128 78 129 70 134 224 132 240 74 133 167 93 68 53 86 246 139 164 107 105 285 83 178 108 24 186 138 55 74 110 149 136 94 51 82 76 106 98 93 16 48 232 183 99 96 23 130 255 219 148 247 177 126 73 116 149 73 98 114 37 90 86 106 220 90 110 205 275 381 138 122 253 95 159 153 59 90 23 81 135 103 60 167
Previous peak date2021-09-082021-09-072021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-11-112021-06-06 --2021-09-01 --2021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-202022-01-242021-07-202022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-06-062022-01-242021-10-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-10-192022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-12-282021-07-152021-12-292021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-10-18 --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152021-08-302021-09-012022-01-242022-02-062021-12-282021-07-142022-01-242021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-132022-01-24 --2021-07-14 --2021-10-122021-08-212021-07-15 -- --2022-01-242021-08-242021-06-292022-01-242021-09-06 --2021-08-182021-08-26 --2021-07-15 --2021-08-312021-07-142021-08-302022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-15 --2022-01-24 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132022-01-242021-08-182021-09-02 --2021-10-132021-08-212021-09-062021-12-282021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-122022-01-242021-08-312021-07-15 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-12-282021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-172021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-152021-10-142021-09-022022-01-242022-01-242021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-08-312021-10-042021-10-04 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-162022-01-242022-01-242021-07-112021-07-162022-01-242021-07-29 -- --2022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-09-18 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-15 -- --2021-07-152021-09-02 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-122021-09-15 --2022-01-242021-07-112022-01-242022-01-242021-12-27 --2021-09-032021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 --2022-01-242021-12-272022-01-242022-01-242021-10-182022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-08-032022-01-242021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-12-282022-01-242021-06-29 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-12-30 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-08-312021-09-192022-01-242021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-09-012021-08-17 --2022-01-242021-07-162022-01-24 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-142021-10-152021-08-262022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-152022-01-24 -- --2022-01-242021-08-312021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-09-022021-07-152021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-10-182021-07-152022-01-24 --2021-08-172022-01-242021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-12-282021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-172021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-09-022021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- -- -- --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-12-28 --2021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Previous peak daily increment 179 224 51 115 105 89 5 97 127 120 57 3477 4581 276 70 139 152 144 287 2285 379 3307 943 127 2250 126 962 4696 293 107 478 103 176 68 508 218 621 4 258 94 72 1302 74 2935 249 2895 1143 2214 1302 1131 115 528 101 3005 67 170 1033 1466 3801 243 82 73 125 121 567 69 1939 121 403 114 995 708 607 376 551 101 5019 122 140 1634 86 64 202 400 4687 137 188 4677 133 135 183 122 100 65 157 3182 1563 61 417 105 58 1189 128 185 88 171 421 482 67 56 884 274 1519 941 95 63 1137 163 323 229 2105 817 2104 152 61 1498 65 146 54 151 1707 82 90 203 3914 1327 84 75 136 161 64 189 139 71 3609 6117 3336 301 117 11029 6320 51 213 1176 99 3848 120 41 47 10177 1515 169 40 164 72 503 101 274 115 49 189 31 184 1329 384 1519 5335 518 164 123 94 256 1060 1294 1824 525 291 2932 77 1179 3811 87 5264 158 839 255 1562 291 1808 118 2613 2589 315 2199 4529 297 1065 114 289 268 776 140 67 213 75 73 49 4307 1311 1297 1206 259 344 253 951 78 123 857 96 8405 3240 277 202 118 768 1218 345 587 763 470 128 68 77 1609 106 1377 303 200 152 4073 70 131 3012 1783 1077 91 243 339 3812 201 428 57 145 101 890 329 219 968 143 2555 116 92 150 1551 78 105 131 134 106 226 286 64 422 79 5038 4407 157 313 2987 1563 73 70 90 102 193 70 158 94 207 65 138 380 632 149 4157 1188 63 397 117 1437 1060 2087
Low between peaks 83 99 16 24 37 42 2 28 49 59 18 51 163 103 28 53 51 54 99 87 179 80 406 33 47 31 21 45 124 39 190 42 75 22 28 83 100 2 100 38 34 55 31 43 97 43 97 122 31 99 22 56 21 143 25 46 94 98 164 119 31 31 54 35 157 19 107 20 29 25 29 227 190 143 19 39 163 49 43 40 41 32 63 142 85 56 26 150 58 49 49 57 36 30 35 136 49 25 19 38 23 45 44 80 41 67 199 36 29 19 22 75 49 199 21 30 49 76 22 57 45 39 89 75 27 85 32 32 18 70 81 41 37 59 115 39 39 24 26 58 30 51 49 30 100 95 49 74 44 269 77 20 66 41 43 66 51 17 14 129 31 77 11 75 30 58 36 58 32 24 22 2 75 42 120 35 103 32 54 61 39 68 52 157 44 56 115 99 22 32 136 42 108 50 15 87 96 29 9 19 148 106 22 86 84 49 38 51 68 125 15 61 17 69 20 21 17 66 54 55 59 20 21 104 25 28 40 35 33 182 149 91 64 40 28 46 58 48 35 149 59 28 35 30 42 33 55 94 56 161 34 49 48 60 33 38 118 78 78 62 96 24 64 24 56 103 85 22 34 70 35 37 63 74 33 36 51 61 41 72 125 31 40 36 79 68 70 94 69 88 36 31 40 47 87 17 37 42 89 24 58 112 316 69 58 59 31 28 52 36 37 39

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-12 to 2022-05-18

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-05-11 71457 79320 19539 31605 40843 36290 55062 54992 24548 81522 48936 42700 43051 67531 26257 69283 126043 89817 25062 66121 58149 39740 60613 64423 128793 81620 346148 35627 56305 49596 21251 26495 94858 20999 134663 42827 172826 49460 39013 101895 26576 40793 95824 168156 39978 108790 33727 32548 37824 32917 66256 51295 67201 43712 72118 34702 47342 102743 36565 47830 30781 47390 98306 12845 61658 61750 37025 52789 130270 120748 34108 35413 31893 41404 182128 20097 65236 7843 26371 23327 26893 158814 23981 183157 111694 16767 40680 124174 51487 38090 40260 28119 24571 86625 20012 62143 108299 106626 35381 109076 44619 53397 119025 49149 27115 42469 43520 37275 50234 38025 36937 29144 38636 106620 41371 68736 32822 45687 14622 49269 96677 44115 28193 37682 42421 61610 36248 31140 42510 127909 38999 34182 23979 26191 70090 40758 237551 42767 27225 36831 31000 90481 47104 26937 90220 49326 26843 63426 30853 83212 32439 52949 81586 33191 33887 29631 39421 89655 52851 37602 29750 68485 101092 37182 44845 94754 56713 29087 29610 45070 14787 40405 74352 44770 35361 44355 90433 59942 138817 59899 111986 46652 275624 120483 30474 95916 35184 33503 54914 176312 75364 57326 20059 20346 193447 38074 94249 16304 33542 19299 72450 23835 28629 50869 56354 47868 52958 34222 98183 27687 20015 27648 42545 50185 39379 106940 41860 107228 44151 68050 49976 29082 32681 52968 43394 36110 140692 53567 23869 69350 78124 21538 34424 79485 107275 44967 109879 46170 20144 79305 5303 52553 26246 30774 46809 74535 89232 71680 26281 51644 57693 100402 47748 29131 53543 73462 71182 21236 66588 15280 76967 28950 24545 25977 93408 39185 28916 41517 35246 11756 14170 96029 110572 31327 32349 38279 99002 29875 39058 189068 6750 97254 51896 73220 45856 38975 23579 52280 36561 97719 24361 27892 45066 28630 130442 40916 30342 46107 39372 48776 36743 54725 82140 61302 102426 35780 52456 67027 45958 30694 29974 32296 103434 71746 88333 40596 35114 99652 31285 73198 49041 68464 73531 80582 27278 29523 39379 63326 45231 41750 29420 44813 32573 62546 43144 43584 26949 18901 106357 85285 37701 29461 36842 43600 117982 93636 90070 116872 77326 48428 35124 41878 46575 26258 39688 49736 14786 35918 38702 29069 68653 34434 50220 68165 116584 151463 40211 51468 113041 36373 59578 89108 33371 35213 37836 38433 58433 36476 31100 65420
2022-05-12 71510 79450 19550 31620 40870 36320 55100 55010 24590 81550 48970 42720 43070 67560 26270 69320 126100 89880 25080 66170 58180 39760 60650 64450 128800 81650 346500 35650 56330 49620 21250 26520 94890 21010 134700 42850 172900 49480 39040 102000 26590 40800 95910 168200 40010 108800 33750 32570 37850 32930 66290 51300 67240 43760 72150 34720 47380 102800 36580 47830 30800 47400 98390 12850 61700 61780 37050 52830 130400 120800 34130 35440 31910 41440 182200 20110 65270 7901 26380 23340 26910 158900 23990 183400 111800 16780 40700 124300 51510 38110 40300 28130 24580 86690 20020 62150 108300 106700 35400 109100 44650 53440 119100 49290 27130 42490 43570 37300 50270 38050 36970 29150 38710 106800 41400 68770 32840 45720 14630 49310 96700 44170 28200 37710 42470 61680 36290 31170 42520 128000 39010 34220 23990 26210 70140 40810 237800 42790 27240 36850 31020 90540 47140 26940 90280 49340 26860 63470 30870 83240 32450 52980 81620 33210 33900 29650 39450 89690 52890 37620 29760 68520 101100 37200 44870 94770 56780 29100 29720 45080 14790 40450 74400 44790 35380 44390 90500 59980 138800 59930 112100 46700 275800 120600 30490 95960 35240 33520 54930 176400 75410 57350 20070 20350 193500 38120 94300 16310 33550 19300 72500 23850 28640 50890 56360 47900 52980 34250 98250 27700 20020 27680 42550 50240 39410 107000 41890 107300 44160 68070 50090 29110 32710 53000 43410 36170 140900 53600 23880 69410 78150 21550 34450 79520 107400 44990 109900 46180 20150 79360 5306 52580 26250 30790 46840 74630 89280 71730 26280 51670 57740 100400 47780 29150 53580 73520 71190 21250 66620 15300 77000 28960 24570 26000 93480 39230 28930 41550 35260 11770 14180 96090 110700 31340 32370 38300 99060 29890 39070 189200 6763 97320 51930 73260 45880 39070 23590 52310 36580 97780 24380 27920 45090 28680 130700 40930 30360 46120 39390 48790 36760 54770 82200 61370 102500 35810 52480 67060 45980 30710 29990 32320 103500 71790 88410 40620 35140 99700 31300 73230 49060 68480 73570 80630 27310 29530 39410 63370 45260 41770 29430 44840 32590 62620 43170 43650 26950 18920 106400 85340 37750 29490 36850 43630 118000 93680 90110 116900 77390 48450 35140 41910 46610 26270 39720 49760 14800 35960 38730 29090 68720 34450 50290 68210 116600 151500 40240 51500 113100 36390 59620 89140 33390 35250 37840 38450 58460 36500 31140 65430
2022-05-13 71650 79650 19560 31670 40900 36400 55180 55030 24620 81640 49020 42760 43110 67610 26300 69360 126200 89980 25110 66210 58260 39790 60720 64520 128900 81680 346700 35680 56380 49660 21260 26540 94960 21020 134900 42880 173000 49530 39080 102000 26610 40800 95990 168300 40070 108900 33790 32590 37880 32960 66340 51310 67270 43800 72180 34740 47450 102800 36610 47840 30820 47440 98520 12850 61730 61840 37080 52900 130500 120900 34160 35470 31940 41470 182600 20140 65330 7932 26380 23370 26930 159200 24000 183500 111800 16790 40710 124300 51540 38160 40340 28150 24590 86790 20060 62180 108400 106900 35430 109200 44740 53530 119100 49370 27160 42540 43650 37340 50300 38100 37040 29170 38760 106900 41450 68840 32860 45780 14650 49330 96720 44210 28220 37740 42550 61750 36340 31180 42540 128200 39010 34240 24020 26230 70180 40850 238000 42830 27270 36890 31070 90590 47200 26950 90390 49370 26880 63500 30890 83260 32470 53010 81680 33250 33920 29680 39480 89720 52950 37660 29780 68680 101200 37210 44910 94810 56840 29120 29790 45100 14790 40480 74440 44800 35410 44430 90560 60030 138900 59990 112100 46730 275900 120600 30520 95980 35270 33550 54960 176500 75450 57380 20080 20360 193600 38150 94340 16330 33570 19300 72550 23870 28650 50920 56380 47970 53000 34300 98290 27710 20020 27780 42560 50290 39460 107000 41920 107300 44170 68120 50180 29150 32750 53070 43440 36210 141000 53660 23920 69460 78170 21580 34480 79590 107500 45040 110000 46200 20170 79410 5311 52630 26260 30820 46930 74700 89380 71790 26290 51710 57770 100500 47830 29170 53620 73720 71200 21260 66650 15310 77030 28980 24590 26020 93540 39260 28950 41600 35280 11780 14180 96140 110700 31360 32440 38350 99150 29900 39090 189400 6799 97440 51960 73340 45940 39120 23630 52360 36600 97860 24410 27930 45140 28720 130800 40970 30400 46130 39430 48820 36790 54790 82290 61420 102600 35820 52530 67110 46040 30750 30020 32360 103500 71890 88480 40660 35180 99800 31330 73260 49090 68490 73630 80700 27330 29550 39470 63410 45310 41820 29450 44900 32630 62670 43190 43690 26960 18940 106500 85380 37780 29510 36860 43680 118100 93750 90140 117000 77440 48500 35160 41950 46670 26280 39750 49810 14820 36000 38760 29130 68860 34490 50340 68250 116700 151700 40300 51550 113200 36430 59680 89180 33410 35270 37850 38480 58500 36540 31170 65440
2022-05-14 71750 79800 19570 31700 40940 36450 55240 55050 24640 81710 49060 42780 43150 67640 26330 69400 126200 90060 25140 66240 58320 39820 60770 64570 128900 81700 346900 35700 56410 49690 21260 26560 95010 21040 135000 42910 173100 49570 39110 102000 26630 40810 96060 168400 40120 108900 33830 32610 37900 32980 66370 51320 67290 43830 72200 34760 47500 102800 36630 47850 30840 47470 98630 12850 61750 61890 37120 52960 130600 121000 34190 35500 31960 41480 182800 20170 65380 7957 26390 23400 26960 159300 24020 183600 111900 16810 40730 124400 51550 38200 40360 28170 24590 86870 20080 62190 108500 107000 35460 109200 44810 53590 119200 49420 27180 42590 43710 37380 50330 38140 37100 29180 38790 107000 41490 68900 32880 45830 14670 49340 96730 44240 28240 37770 42620 61800 36390 31190 42550 128300 39010 34270 24040 26260 70220 40880 238200 42860 27300 36920 31110 90630 47250 26950 90480 49400 26900 63520 30910 83270 32500 53040 81730 33290 33940 29710 39520 89730 53000 37690 29790 68790 101200 37230 44940 94840 56890 29130 29830 45130 14790 40510 74470 44810 35430 44470 90610 60050 138900 60030 112200 46770 276000 120700 30550 96000 35300 33580 54980 176600 75470 57410 20100 20370 193700 38180 94370 16340 33590 19310 72580 23880 28670 50950 56390 48020 53030 34340 98320 27730 20030 27850 42560 50340 39500 107000 41950 107300 44170 68150 50230 29180 32790 53120 43470 36240 141100 53700 23950 69510 78200 21600 34520 79650 107600 45080 110000 46210 20180 79440 5317 52670 26270 30840 47000 74760 89460 71850 26290 51750 57790 100500 47880 29190 53650 73860 71210 21280 66680 15320 77070 29000 24600 26040 93570 39290 28970 41640 35300 11790 14190 96190 110800 31380 32490 38380 99230 29920 39110 189500 6825 97550 51990 73400 45980 39160 23650 52410 36630 97940 24430 27950 45180 28750 130900 41000 30430 46150 39460 48860 36820 54820 82360 61470 102600 35840 52580 67150 46080 30770 30040 32390 103600 71960 88530 40690 35220 99800 31350 73290 49120 68490 73680 80760 27350 29570 39520 63450 45360 41850 29470 44950 32660 62720 43220 43720 26970 18960 106600 85410 37820 29540 36860 43720 118200 93800 90150 117000 77460 48540 35170 41990 46730 26300 39770 49850 14840 36030 38790 29160 68960 34520 50380 68290 116800 151800 40350 51590 113300 36460 59740 89220 33440 35290 37850 38510 58540 36580 31190 65450
2022-05-15 71840 79940 19590 31730 40970 36500 55290 55070 24650 81770 49100 42810 43180 67670 26350 69440 126300 90130 25160 66280 58380 39850 60820 64600 128900 81720 347000 35730 56440 49710 21270 26570 95060 21050 135100 42940 173200 49610 39140 102100 26650 40810 96130 168500 40170 109000 33860 32630 37930 33000 66410 51330 67310 43870 72230 34780 47550 102800 36660 47860 30860 47490 98740 12850 61780 61940 37150 53010 130600 121000 34220 35530 31980 41490 183000 20190 65440 7982 26400 23420 26980 159500 24030 183700 111900 16820 40760 124400 51560 38240 40390 28200 24590 86950 20100 62210 108600 107100 35490 109300 44860 53640 119200 49470 27200 42630 43760 37410 50360 38170 37150 29190 38810 107100 41520 68960 32890 45880 14680 49350 96750 44260 28250 37800 42680 61860 36440 31210 42570 128500 39020 34290 24060 26280 70250 40910 238300 42890 27320 36950 31140 90670 47290 26950 90550 49420 26920 63540 30940 83290 32520 53080 81770 33320 33960 29730 39550 89740 53050 37720 29800 68880 101300 37250 44980 94870 56940 29140 29880 45150 14790 40540 74510 44820 35460 44520 90660 60090 139000 60070 112200 46800 276100 120700 30570 96020 35310 33610 55000 176700 75500 57450 20110 20380 193800 38200 94410 16360 33610 19310 72600 23880 28680 50980 56400 48060 53060 34370 98350 27740 20030 27910 42570 50380 39540 107000 41990 107400 44180 68180 50270 29220 32820 53160 43490 36270 141200 53750 23980 69570 78200 21620 34550 79700 107600 45120 110100 46220 20200 79480 5322 52710 26280 30860 47060 74820 89530 71910 26290 51770 57810 100500 47920 29220 53690 73970 71220 21290 66700 15330 77110 29020 24620 26060 93600 39310 28980 41680 35320 11800 14200 96230 110800 31400 32530 38420 99300 29940 39130 189600 6845 97650 52010 73460 46030 39200 23670 52450 36650 98020 24460 27970 45220 28770 131000 41030 30460 46160 39480 48880 36840 54850 82430 61520 102700 35860 52620 67200 46120 30800 30070 32420 103600 72030 88580 40730 35250 99900 31360 73320 49150 68500 73730 80820 27370 29590 39560 63490 45400 41890 29490 45000 32690 62760 43250 43760 26970 18980 106600 85440 37840 29560 36870 43760 118300 93850 90170 117100 77490 48580 35190 42030 46770 26310 39790 49890 14850 36060 38810 29190 69050 34550 50430 68320 116900 151900 40400 51630 113400 36490 59800 89270 33460 35310 37860 38540 58570 36610 31220 65460
2022-05-16 71920 80060 19600 31760 41000 36550 55340 55080 24690 81830 49150 42830 43210 67700 26380 69480 126400 90200 25190 66320 58430 39880 60870 64640 129000 81740 347200 35750 56470 49740 21270 26590 95100 21070 135200 42970 173300 49650 39170 102100 26670 40820 96210 168600 40210 109100 33890 32650 37950 33020 66440 51330 67340 43900 72260 34800 47600 102800 36690 47860 30890 47510 98850 12850 61800 61990 37180 53070 130700 121100 34250 35560 32010 41510 183200 20210 65490 8000 26400 23450 27000 159700 24040 183900 112000 16840 40780 124500 51580 38270 40420 28220 24600 87030 20120 62220 108700 107200 35520 109400 44910 53690 119200 49540 27230 42670 43810 37450 50400 38210 37190 29200 38830 107200 41560 69020 32910 45930 14700 49370 96780 44290 28260 37830 42740 61950 36480 31230 42580 128600 39020 34320 24080 26300 70300 40950 238600 42920 27350 36970 31170 90710 47340 26960 90630 49440 26940 63580 30960 83320 32540 53110 81810 33350 33980 29760 39580 89760 53100 37740 29810 68970 101300 37260 45020 94890 57000 29160 29950 45180 14790 40570 74560 44840 35490 44560 90730 60140 139000 60110 112300 46830 276200 120800 30600 96050 35330 33630 55020 176800 75530 57480 20120 20400 193900 38230 94460 16370 33630 19310 72630 23910 28700 51000 56410 48100 53090 34400 98380 27750 20030 27960 42570 50440 39580 107000 42030 107400 44180 68210 50330 29250 32850 53210 43510 36310 141300 53800 24000 69630 78240 21640 34580 79760 107700 45160 110100 46230 20210 79500 5328 52750 26280 30880 47110 74900 89610 71960 26300 51800 57850 100600 47960 29240 53730 74070 71220 21300 66730 15340 77150 29040 24630 26090 93640 39330 29000 41720 35340 11810 14210 96280 110900 31420 32570 38450 99360 29950 39140 189700 6864 97740 52040 73510 46070 39250 23700 52500 36670 98100 24480 27990 45260 28800 131100 41070 30490 46170 39510 48920 36870 54890 82500 61570 102800 35880 52660 67240 46160 30820 30090 32450 103600 72090 88640 40760 35280 100000 31380 73360 49190 68500 73790 80880 27380 29610 39610 63540 45450 41920 29510 45040 32720 62820 43290 43800 26980 19000 106700 85480 37880 29600 36870 43800 118400 93900 90200 117200 77530 48620 35200 42070 46820 26340 39820 49930 14870 36100 38850 29220 69140 34580 50480 68350 117000 152000 40450 51680 113500 36520 59850 89310 33490 35350 37860 38570 58590 36650 31250 65470
2022-05-17 71990 80180 19620 31790 41030 36580 55370 55100 24710 81890 49190 42850 43240 67730 26400 69510 126500 90270 25210 66360 58480 39910 60920 64670 129000 81760 347400 35780 56500 49770 21270 26610 95140 21080 135300 43000 173300 49690 39190 102100 26690 40820 96290 168700 40260 109100 33920 32680 37970 33030 66480 51340 67370 43950 72290 34820 47650 102800 36710 47860 30910 47530 98950 12850 61830 62030 37220 53120 130800 121200 34280 35590 32030 41520 183300 20230 65540 8019 26410 23470 27010 159900 24060 184000 112100 16850 40810 124500 51590 38300 40450 28240 24600 87100 20140 62230 108700 107300 35550 109400 44950 53730 119300 49570 27250 42700 43860 37480 50440 38240 37230 29210 38860 107300 41590 69090 32920 45970 14710 49390 96790 44320 28270 37860 42790 62000 36520 31240 42590 128700 39020 34360 24100 26320 70340 40980 238700 42960 27370 37000 31200 90750 47380 26960 90700 49450 26960 63600 30980 83340 32560 53150 81840 33380 33990 29780 39620 89770 53150 37770 29820 69050 101300 37280 45060 94910 57060 29170 29990 45210 14790 40600 74590 44850 35520 44600 90790 60180 139000 60140 112300 46860 276400 120800 30620 96080 35350 33660 55030 176900 75560 57520 20130 20410 194000 38260 94490 16380 33650 19310 72650 23920 28720 51020 56420 48130 53110 34440 98400 27760 20030 28000 42580 50500 39610 107100 42050 107400 44190 68230 50370 29280 32890 53250 43530 36330 141400 53850 24030 69690 78280 21660 34610 79810 107700 45200 110200 46240 20220 79530 5334 52800 26290 30890 47160 74950 89680 72020 26300 51830 57860 100600 48000 29260 53760 74160 71230 21320 66750 15350 77180 29060 24640 26110 93680 39350 29020 41750 35360 11820 14220 96350 110900 31440 32600 38490 99430 29970 39150 189800 6881 97830 52060 73570 46120 39280 23720 52540 36700 98170 24510 28010 45300 28820 131200 41100 30520 46190 39530 48950 36890 54930 82570 61610 102900 35890 52700 67280 46190 30850 30110 32480 103700 72150 88690 40800 35320 100100 31400 73380 49220 68500 73840 80930 27410 29620 39650 63580 45490 41960 29530 45080 32740 62870 43320 43840 26980 19020 106800 85510 37910 29630 36880 43840 118400 93940 90220 117300 77570 48650 35210 42110 46870 26360 39850 49970 14880 36130 38880 29240 69220 34610 50530 68380 117000 152100 40490 51720 113600 36550 59910 89360 33510 35380 37860 38590 58620 36680 31270 65480
2022-05-18 72060 80290 19640 31810 41060 36620 55410 55120 24740 81940 49230 42870 43270 67760 26420 69550 126600 90330 25230 66400 58530 39940 60970 64700 129000 81790 347500 35800 56520 49790 21280 26620 95180 21090 135400 43040 173400 49730 39210 102100 26710 40820 96350 168700 40300 109200 33940 32700 37990 33050 66510 51340 67390 44000 72320 34840 47700 102800 36740 47870 30920 47550 99050 12860 61850 62080 37250 53170 130900 121200 34300 35620 32060 41540 183500 20240 65600 8026 26410 23490 27030 160000 24080 184200 112200 16860 40830 124500 51610 38330 40480 28260 24600 87170 20160 62240 108800 107400 35570 109500 44990 53760 119300 49620 27270 42740 43910 37520 50480 38270 37280 29220 38890 107400 41630 69150 32930 46010 14730 49400 96820 44350 28280 37890 42850 62050 36560 31250 42600 128800 39020 34390 24120 26340 70390 41000 238900 42990 27390 37020 31230 90780 47430 26960 90770 49470 26980 63620 31000 83370 32580 53210 81870 33410 34010 29800 39650 89810 53200 37800 29830 69120 101400 37290 45100 94930 57110 29180 30000 45240 14790 40630 74620 44870 35540 44640 90850 60220 139000 60180 112300 46890 276500 120900 30650 96110 35370 33680 55050 177000 75590 57560 20150 20430 194100 38290 94520 16390 33670 19310 72680 23940 28740 51050 56430 48160 53140 34470 98430 27770 20030 28040 42580 50540 39640 107100 42080 107400 44190 68250 50430 29310 32920 53300 43550 36360 141500 53890 24050 69760 78320 21670 34630 79860 107800 45240 110200 46250 20230 79560 5340 52840 26290 30910 47200 74990 89750 72070 26300 51850 57890 100700 48030 29270 53800 74240 71230 21330 66780 15360 77220 29080 24650 26140 93710 39370 29040 41790 35380 11830 14230 96400 111000 31460 32630 38520 99490 29990 39170 190000 6896 97920 52090 73610 46160 39320 23740 52590 36720 98250 24530 28030 45340 28850 131300 41130 30540 46200 39550 48980 36920 54960 82640 61640 102900 35910 52740 67320 46230 30870 30140 32510 103700 72200 88750 40830 35350 100100 31410 73400 49250 68510 73900 80980 27420 29650 39690 63630 45530 41990 29550 45110 32770 62900 43350 43870 26990 19040 106800 85530 37940 29650 36880 43880 118500 93980 90240 117300 77600 48690 35230 42150 46920 26370 39880 50010 14900 36150 38900 29270 69300 34640 50570 68410 117100 152200 40530 51760 113700 36580 59960 89400 33540 35410 37860 38620 58640 36700 31290 65500

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-12 to 2022-05-18

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-05-11 71457 79320 19539 31605 40843 36290 55062 54992 24548 81522 48936 42700 43051 67531 26257 69283 126043 89817 25062 66121 58149 39740 60613 64423 128793 81620 346148 35627 56305 49596 21251 26495 94858 20999 134663 42827 172826 49460 39013 101895 26576 40793 95824 168156 39978 108790 33727 32548 37824 32917 66256 51295 67201 43712 72118 34702 47342 102743 36565 47830 30781 47390 98306 12845 61658 61750 37025 52789 130270 120748 34108 35413 31893 41404 182128 20097 65236 7843 26371 23327 26893 158814 23981 183157 111694 16767 40680 124174 51487 38090 40260 28119 24571 86625 20012 62143 108299 106626 35381 109076 44619 53397 119025 49149 27115 42469 43520 37275 50234 38025 36937 29144 38636 106620 41371 68736 32822 45687 14622 49269 96677 44115 28193 37682 42421 61610 36248 31140 42510 127909 38999 34182 23979 26191 70090 40758 237551 42767 27225 36831 31000 90481 47104 26937 90220 49326 26843 63426 30853 83212 32439 52949 81586 33191 33887 29631 39421 89655 52851 37602 29750 68485 101092 37182 44845 94754 56713 29087 29610 45070 14787 40405 74352 44770 35361 44355 90433 59942 138817 59899 111986 46652 275624 120483 30474 95916 35184 33503 54914 176312 75364 57326 20059 20346 193447 38074 94249 16304 33542 19299 72450 23835 28629 50869 56354 47868 52958 34222 98183 27687 20015 27648 42545 50185 39379 106940 41860 107228 44151 68050 49976 29082 32681 52968 43394 36110 140692 53567 23869 69350 78124 21538 34424 79485 107275 44967 109879 46170 20144 79305 5303 52553 26246 30774 46809 74535 89232 71680 26281 51644 57693 100402 47748 29131 53543 73462 71182 21236 66588 15280 76967 28950 24545 25977 93408 39185 28916 41517 35246 11756 14170 96029 110572 31327 32349 38279 99002 29875 39058 189068 6750 97254 51896 73220 45856 38975 23579 52280 36561 97719 24361 27892 45066 28630 130442 40916 30342 46107 39372 48776 36743 54725 82140 61302 102426 35780 52456 67027 45958 30694 29974 32296 103434 71746 88333 40596 35114 99652 31285 73198 49041 68464 73531 80582 27278 29523 39379 63326 45231 41750 29420 44813 32573 62546 43144 43584 26949 18901 106357 85285 37701 29461 36842 43600 117982 93636 90070 116872 77326 48428 35124 41878 46575 26258 39688 49736 14786 35918 38702 29069 68653 34434 50220 68165 116584 151463 40211 51468 113041 36373 59578 89108 33371 35213 37836 38433 58433 36476 31100 65420
2022-05-12 71520 79380 19550 31620 40870 36310 55080 55010 24570 81540 48970 42720 43070 67560 26270 69310 126100 89850 25080 66150 58200 39760 60640 64460 128800 81670 346400 35650 56330 49630 21250 26510 94890 21010 134700 42860 172900 49490 39040 102000 26590 40800 95880 168200 40000 108800 33750 32570 37850 32930 66280 51300 67240 43750 72160 34710 47370 102800 36580 47840 30800 47400 98380 12850 61690 61780 37040 52820 130300 120800 34130 35440 31910 41430 182300 20110 65280 7855 26380 23340 26910 158900 24000 183300 111700 16780 40700 124200 51510 38110 40280 28130 24580 86680 20020 62150 108300 106700 35400 109100 44650 53420 119100 49220 27130 42490 43550 37300 50260 38050 36950 29160 38660 106700 41400 68790 32840 45710 14630 49300 96720 44140 28210 37700 42450 61640 36280 31150 42520 128000 39000 34200 24000 26200 70120 40780 237700 42790 27240 36850 31020 90530 47130 26940 90260 49350 26860 63460 30870 83260 32460 52980 81630 33210 33900 29650 39450 89700 52890 37620 29760 68560 101100 37200 44880 94800 56750 29100 29640 45090 14790 40430 74390 44800 35380 44380 90470 59970 138900 59930 112000 46680 275800 120500 30490 95960 35220 33530 54930 176400 75410 57360 20070 20360 193500 38100 94290 16310 33560 19300 72490 23850 28650 50900 56360 47880 52980 34250 98240 27700 20020 27680 42550 50220 39410 107000 41890 107300 44160 68060 50020 29100 32700 53000 43420 36140 140800 53600 23880 69390 78170 21550 34440 79520 107300 45000 109900 46190 20150 79340 5309 52580 26250 30780 46850 74580 89280 71730 26280 51670 57720 100400 47770 29150 53570 73500 71190 21250 66620 15290 77000 28960 24560 26000 93450 39210 28930 41540 35260 11770 14180 96080 110600 31350 32370 38300 99060 29900 39080 189200 6763 97320 51920 73270 45890 39010 23590 52320 36580 97780 24380 27910 45090 28650 130600 40950 30360 46130 39390 48800 36760 54750 82190 61320 102500 35800 52490 67060 45980 30710 29990 32320 103500 71780 88380 40620 35140 99700 31300 73240 49070 68470 73570 80610 27300 29540 39400 63360 45260 41780 29430 44840 32590 62580 43170 43610 26950 18910 106400 85330 37720 29480 36850 43630 118000 93680 90100 116900 77370 48460 35140 41900 46610 26270 39710 49760 14790 35940 38720 29090 68690 34450 50250 68200 116600 151600 40250 51500 113100 36390 59610 89140 33390 35240 37840 38450 58460 36500 31120 65450
2022-05-13 71610 79460 19570 31650 40890 36350 55110 55030 24590 81590 49000 42740 43100 67600 26280 69340 126200 89900 25100 66180 58250 39790 60670 64510 128900 81710 346600 35670 56350 49650 21260 26530 94940 21020 134800 42880 173000 49520 39080 102000 26610 40800 95930 168300 40040 108900 33780 32590 37870 32950 66310 51310 67260 43780 72200 34730 47410 102800 36600 47840 30810 47420 98450 12850 61720 61820 37070 52860 130400 120900 34150 35470 31940 41450 182500 20130 65330 7862 26380 23360 26930 159000 24020 183400 111800 16790 40720 124300 51550 38130 40310 28150 24580 86730 20040 62160 108400 106800 35420 109200 44700 53460 119100 49270 27150 42520 43580 37330 50300 38070 36990 29180 38690 106800 41420 68830 32860 45750 14650 49320 96760 44160 28230 37730 42480 61690 36310 31170 42530 128100 39010 34230 24010 26220 70160 40810 237900 42810 27260 36870 31050 90590 47160 26950 90320 49380 26880 63500 30890 83300 32480 53010 81680 33230 33920 29670 39470 89750 52930 37650 29780 68670 101200 37220 44910 94860 56800 29110 29670 45120 14790 40450 74420 44820 35410 44420 90510 60010 138900 59970 112100 46710 275900 120600 30520 96010 35240 33550 54950 176500 75450 57400 20080 20380 193600 38120 94350 16320 33580 19300 72540 23860 28660 50930 56380 47920 53010 34280 98300 27720 20020 27730 42560 50260 39440 107000 41910 107300 44160 68090 50070 29110 32720 53030 43440 36170 140900 53640 23900 69440 78220 21560 34470 79560 107400 45030 110000 46210 20170 79370 5319 52620 26260 30800 46910 74630 89330 71770 26290 51700 57760 100500 47800 29160 53600 73580 71200 21260 66660 15300 77030 28980 24570 26020 93500 39230 28950 41570 35290 11780 14180 96120 110700 31370 32410 38330 99120 29920 39100 189300 6782 97400 51950 73320 45920 39050 23610 52360 36600 97840 24390 27920 45120 28680 130700 40980 30380 46160 39410 48840 36780 54780 82240 61360 102500 35820 52520 67110 46020 30730 30010 32340 103500 71830 88430 40650 35170 99800 31330 73280 49100 68480 73610 80660 27310 29560 39430 63400 45290 41810 29450 44870 32620 62610 43190 43640 26960 18920 106500 85370 37750 29500 36850 43650 118100 93730 90140 117000 77410 48490 35160 41940 46640 26280 39740 49800 14800 35960 38740 29120 68750 34480 50290 68230 116700 151700 40290 51530 113200 36420 59660 89180 33410 35260 37850 38480 58510 36530 31140 65480
2022-05-14 71690 79530 19580 31670 40910 36380 55140 55050 24620 81630 49030 42770 43130 67640 26300 69380 126300 89950 25120 66220 58290 39810 60710 64560 128900 81760 346700 35690 56370 49680 21260 26550 94990 21030 134900 42910 173000 49560 39110 102100 26620 40810 95990 168400 40070 109000 33800 32600 37900 32960 66340 51310 67290 43800 72240 34750 47450 102800 36630 47850 30830 47430 98520 12850 61750 61860 37090 52900 130500 121000 34180 35490 31960 41470 182700 20150 65370 7870 26380 23380 26940 159100 24030 183500 111900 16800 40740 124400 51580 38160 40330 28170 24580 86780 20050 62170 108500 106900 35450 109200 44760 53490 119200 49320 27170 42550 43620 37360 50320 38110 37020 29200 38710 106900 41450 68890 32880 45780 14660 49340 96800 44190 28250 37760 42510 61730 36340 31190 42530 128200 39010 34250 24030 26240 70200 40840 238100 42840 27280 36890 31070 90640 47190 26950 90370 49400 26900 63530 30910 83340 32490 53040 81740 33250 33940 29690 39500 89790 52970 37680 29790 68760 101300 37240 44950 94920 56850 29120 29690 45140 14790 40470 74460 44830 35430 44450 90540 60030 139000 60000 112200 46740 276000 120600 30540 96060 35270 33580 54970 176600 75490 57440 20100 20400 193700 38140 94410 16330 33600 19310 72570 23880 28680 50960 56400 47940 53030 34310 98360 27730 20020 27770 42560 50310 39470 107100 41940 107400 44170 68110 50110 29130 32750 53060 43460 36200 141000 53680 23920 69480 78260 21570 34490 79590 107500 45060 110000 46240 20180 79390 5328 52650 26260 30810 46970 74670 89380 71820 26290 51730 57790 100500 47820 29180 53630 73640 71200 21270 66700 15310 77060 28990 24580 26040 93540 39260 28970 41590 35320 11780 14190 96150 110700 31390 32450 38360 99180 29940 39130 189400 6799 97480 51980 73360 45960 39080 23630 52400 36620 97900 24410 27940 45160 28710 130800 41010 30400 46190 39430 48870 36800 54810 82290 61400 102600 35840 52550 67140 46050 30750 30030 32370 103600 71870 88470 40670 35200 99800 31350 73320 49130 68480 73660 80700 27320 29570 39460 63440 45320 41840 29470 44900 32640 62650 43210 43670 26960 18940 106500 85410 37780 29520 36860 43680 118200 93770 90180 117100 77450 48530 35180 41970 46670 26300 39760 49830 14810 35980 38760 29140 68810 34500 50320 68260 116700 151800 40320 51570 113200 36450 59700 89220 33430 35280 37850 38510 58550 36550 31160 65520
2022-05-15 71760 79610 19600 31700 40940 36410 55170 55080 24640 81670 49070 42800 43160 67680 26320 69420 126400 90000 25140 66260 58330 39840 60750 64610 128900 81810 346900 35710 56400 49710 21270 26560 95040 21040 135000 42950 173100 49600 39130 102100 26640 40810 96050 168500 40100 109000 33820 32630 37930 32970 66370 51320 67320 43840 72280 34770 47480 102800 36650 47850 30850 47450 98600 12850 61790 61900 37110 52950 130600 121100 34200 35520 31980 41490 182800 20170 65420 7879 26390 23400 26960 159200 24060 183600 111900 16810 40770 124400 51610 38180 40360 28190 24580 86840 20060 62180 108500 107000 35480 109300 44800 53520 119300 49360 27200 42590 43650 37380 50360 38130 37060 29210 38740 106900 41470 68940 32910 45820 14680 49370 96850 44220 28270 37780 42540 61790 36370 31210 42540 128300 39010 34270 24050 26260 70240 40860 238300 42860 27310 36910 31100 90700 47230 26950 90420 49430 26920 63570 30930 83380 32520 53070 81800 33270 33960 29720 39540 89830 53010 37700 29810 68830 101300 37260 44990 94970 56900 29130 29720 45170 14800 40500 74500 44850 35450 44490 90600 60060 139100 60030 112200 46770 276200 120700 30570 96110 35300 33610 54990 176600 75530 57470 20110 20420 193800 38160 94470 16340 33630 19310 72610 23890 28700 50990 56410 47970 53060 34330 98420 27750 20030 27810 42560 50360 39500 107200 41970 107400 44170 68130 50150 29140 32780 53090 43490 36230 141100 53730 23940 69540 78300 21590 34520 79640 107500 45100 110100 46260 20190 79420 5337 52690 26260 30830 47020 74720 89440 71870 26290 51750 57830 100600 47850 29200 53660 73710 71210 21280 66750 15320 77100 29010 24590 26060 93580 39280 29000 41620 35340 11790 14200 96190 110700 31410 32480 38380 99240 29960 39150 189600 6815 97560 52000 73410 45990 39120 23650 52450 36650 97970 24430 27960 45190 28730 130900 41050 30430 46220 39450 48910 36820 54840 82350 61450 102600 35860 52590 67180 46080 30770 30050 32390 103600 71920 88510 40700 35230 99900 31370 73370 49160 68490 73710 80740 27340 29600 39490 63480 45360 41870 29490 44940 32660 62680 43240 43690 26970 18950 106600 85460 37810 29540 36860 43710 118200 93830 90220 117100 77490 48560 35200 42000 46710 26320 39790 49870 14810 36000 38790 29160 68860 34520 50360 68290 116800 151900 40350 51600 113300 36480 59750 89260 33450 35300 37850 38540 58590 36580 31180 65570
2022-05-16 71840 79700 19610 31720 40970 36440 55190 55100 24670 81710 49100 42820 43190 67720 26330 69460 126500 90050 25160 66300 58370 39870 60790 64660 129000 81870 347100 35730 56420 49750 21270 26580 95090 21060 135100 42980 173200 49640 39170 102200 26660 40810 96100 168600 40140 109100 33850 32650 37950 32990 66410 51320 67350 43880 72340 34790 47520 102800 36670 47850 30870 47470 98680 12860 61820 61940 37140 52990 130700 121200 34230 35550 32000 41510 183100 20180 65470 7887 26390 23420 26980 159300 24080 183800 112000 16820 40790 124500 51650 38210 40390 28210 24590 86900 20080 62190 108600 107100 35500 109400 44860 53550 119300 49420 27220 42620 43700 37410 50400 38170 37090 29240 38770 107000 41510 68980 32930 45860 14690 49400 96910 44250 28290 37810 42580 61870 36410 31230 42550 128400 39020 34300 24070 26280 70290 40890 238500 42890 27330 36940 31130 90770 47260 26960 90480 49460 26940 63620 30950 83440 32540 53110 81860 33300 33980 29740 39560 89890 53060 37730 29830 68940 101400 37290 45030 95030 56950 29140 29770 45200 14800 40530 74560 44870 35480 44530 90690 60110 139100 60070 112300 46800 276300 120700 30600 96170 35320 33630 55010 176800 75580 57520 20130 20440 193800 38190 94540 16350 33650 19310 72660 23910 28720 51030 56430 47990 53090 34360 98490 27770 20030 27850 42570 50400 39540 107200 42000 107500 44180 68150 50210 29160 32810 53130 43510 36270 141200 53770 23960 69590 78360 21610 34540 79690 107600 45140 110100 46290 20200 79460 5345 52730 26270 30840 47070 74790 89490 71920 26290 51790 57870 100700 47880 29220 53700 73810 71210 21290 66790 15330 77130 29020 24600 26080 93630 39310 29020 41650 35370 11800 14210 96240 110800 31430 32520 38410 99310 29980 39170 189700 6830 97640 52030 73460 46030 39160 23670 52500 36670 98040 24440 27980 45230 28760 131100 41090 30450 46250 39480 48950 36840 54870 82400 61500 102700 35880 52630 67220 46110 30790 30070 32420 103700 71970 88570 40740 35260 100000 31390 73420 49200 68490 73770 80780 27350 29620 39520 63530 45400 41900 29510 44980 32690 62720 43270 43720 26970 18960 106700 85500 37840 29570 36870 43740 118300 93890 90280 117200 77550 48600 35230 42040 46740 26340 39820 49900 14820 36030 38810 29190 68930 34540 50400 68320 116900 152000 40390 51640 113400 36510 59800 89310 33470 35330 37860 38560 58640 36600 31210 65600
2022-05-17 71930 79790 19630 31740 41000 36490 55220 55110 24710 81750 49140 42850 43220 67770 26340 69490 126600 90110 25180 66340 58410 39900 60830 64720 129000 81920 347200 35750 56440 49780 21270 26600 95140 21080 135300 43020 173300 49690 39200 102200 26670 40820 96170 168700 40180 109200 33880 32670 37980 33000 66450 51330 67380 43920 72390 34810 47570 102800 36700 47860 30890 47480 98770 12860 61860 61990 37170 53030 130800 121300 34250 35580 32030 41540 183300 20210 65530 7896 26400 23440 27000 159400 24100 183900 112100 16830 40820 124600 51700 38240 40430 28230 24590 86970 20100 62190 108700 107200 35530 109400 44920 53590 119400 49480 27240 42660 43740 37440 50450 38200 37140 29260 38810 107100 41540 69040 32950 45910 14700 49430 96970 44280 28310 37830 42610 61940 36440 31250 42560 128500 39020 34330 24090 26300 70330 40920 238800 42920 27350 36970 31160 90840 47300 26960 90540 49490 26960 63670 30980 83500 32560 53150 81920 33320 34000 29770 39600 89950 53110 37760 29840 69080 101500 37310 45080 95090 57000 29160 29810 45230 14800 40570 74600 44900 35500 44570 90750 60160 139200 60110 112400 46830 276500 120800 30620 96250 35340 33660 55030 176900 75630 57570 20140 20450 193900 38210 94600 16360 33680 19310 72700 23930 28750 51060 56440 48010 53120 34400 98560 27790 20030 27890 42570 50460 39580 107300 42030 107500 44180 68170 50270 29180 32830 53160 43540 36300 141400 53820 23980 69640 78420 21620 34570 79740 107700 45170 110200 46320 20210 79490 5354 52760 26270 30860 47120 74840 89550 71980 26290 51820 57920 100700 47910 29230 53740 73910 71220 21310 66830 15340 77160 29040 24620 26110 93690 39340 29040 41680 35400 11810 14220 96290 110900 31450 32570 38440 99380 30000 39200 189800 6846 97730 52060 73500 46070 39210 23690 52550 36690 98110 24460 28000 45260 28790 131200 41130 30470 46280 39510 48990 36870 54910 82460 61550 102800 35910 52670 67260 46140 30810 30090 32450 103800 72020 88630 40760 35290 100000 31410 73470 49240 68490 73820 80830 27370 29650 39550 63570 45440 41930 29530 45010 32710 62770 43310 43750 26980 18980 106700 85550 37880 29600 36870 43780 118400 93950 90340 117300 77600 48640 35250 42080 46790 26350 39860 49940 14830 36060 38840 29210 68990 34570 50450 68350 116900 152100 40420 51680 113500 36540 59850 89360 33490 35350 37860 38600 58680 36630 31230 65630
2022-05-18 72020 79860 19640 31770 41020 36530 55240 55130 24750 81790 49170 42880 43250 67810 26360 69530 126700 90160 25200 66380 58460 39930 60870 64770 129000 81980 347400 35770 56470 49810 21270 26620 95190 21090 135400 43060 173400 49730 39230 102300 26690 40830 96240 168800 40210 109300 33900 32690 38020 33020 66490 51330 67410 43960 72440 34840 47610 102800 36720 47860 30910 47500 98860 12860 61900 62040 37190 53080 131000 121300 34280 35610 32060 41560 183400 20230 65580 7902 26400 23450 27020 159500 24120 184100 112100 16840 40850 124700 51740 38270 40460 28250 24590 87030 20120 62200 108700 107300 35560 109500 44970 53630 119500 49540 27270 42690 43780 37470 50500 38240 37180 29270 38840 107200 41570 69100 32980 45960 14720 49470 97030 44320 28330 37860 42650 62000 36470 31280 42570 128600 39020 34360 24110 26310 70390 40950 239000 42950 27370 36990 31180 90900 47340 26960 90600 49530 26990 63710 31000 83550 32590 53190 81980 33350 34010 29790 39630 90010 53150 37790 29850 69190 101600 37330 45120 95160 57060 29170 29840 45260 14800 40600 74650 44920 35530 44610 90790 60200 139300 60140 112500 46860 276700 120900 30650 96320 35370 33690 55050 177000 75670 57610 20160 20480 194000 38240 94670 16370 33700 19310 72750 23950 28770 51100 56460 48030 53150 34420 98630 27800 20030 27930 42580 50510 39620 107300 42060 107600 44190 68190 50330 29190 32860 53200 43570 36330 141500 53860 24000 69700 78470 21640 34600 79780 107800 45210 110300 46340 20220 79530 5364 52810 26280 30870 47170 74890 89610 72030 26300 51850 57960 100800 47940 29250 53780 73990 71220 21320 66890 15360 77190 29060 24630 26130 93740 39370 29060 41710 35430 11820 14240 96340 110900 31490 32610 38470 99450 30020 39230 190000 6861 97820 52100 73550 46110 39260 23710 52600 36720 98180 24480 28030 45300 28820 131300 41170 30490 46320 39530 49030 36890 54950 82520 61600 102800 35930 52720 67300 46170 30830 30110 32480 103800 72070 88680 40800 35320 100100 31430 73520 49270 68500 73880 80870 27390 29670 39580 63620 45470 41970 29560 45050 32740 62800 43340 43780 26980 18990 106800 85600 37920 29620 36880 43810 118400 94000 90400 117400 77660 48670 35280 42120 46820 26370 39890 49980 14830 36080 38860 29230 69060 34600 50500 68380 117000 152300 40460 51720 113600 36580 59900 89400 33520 35380 37860 38630 58730 36660 31260 65710

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.