COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-02-26

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	12-27	12-26	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-23	12-26	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	12-28	2021-01-11	12-30	12-27	12-22	12-29	12-27	12-27	2021-01-03	2021-01-07	2021-01-01	11-15	12-28	12-21	10-29	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-13	12-27	12-28	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	12-30	12-27	11-03	12-21	12-26	12-25	12-08	12-27	12-21	12-21	2021-01-04	12-22	12-29	12-26	12-22	12-21	2021-01-02	12-21	12-21	12-31	12-26	12-27	12-28	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-30	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	2021-01-02	2021-01-12	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	12-27	12-24	12-29	12-24	12-21	11-02	12-26	10-31	12-27	12-29	12-28	12-21	12-25	12-22	12-25	12-14	12-22	2021-01-06	09-27	12-23	12-28	12-18	12-28	2021-01-04	12-27	12-26	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-22	12-13	12-27	12-14	12-28	12-21	12-29	12-27	12-28	12-24	12-25	12-21	2021-01-01	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-30	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-29	12-27	12-27	12-22	12-21	2021-01-04	12-30	2021-01-03	12-22	11-04	12-29	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-25	12-22	12-26	12-28	12-29	2021-01-03	11-04	12-28	12-08	12-27	10-25	12-26	12-21	11-04	12-21	12-30	11-03	12-21	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	12-29	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-31	2021-01-06	12-29	2021-01-02	12-29	12-21	2021-01-06	2021-01-05	12-22	12-28	12-21	12-27	12-28	12-13	12-31	12-13	10-17	12-30	12-27	12-27	12-25	2021-01-26	12-28	12-29	12-29	2021-01-03	12-21	12-27	12-29	12-24	12-27	12-30	12-25	12-27	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-28	12-26	12-25	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	12-24	12-21	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-26	12-25	10-31	12-22	12-28	12-21	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-25	12-28	12-30	12-23	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-21	12-12	12-23	12-30	12-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	12-26	12-21	10-28	12-28	12-27	12-18	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-25	12-20	12-13	12-28	12-07	12-22	12-27	12-27	12-29	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	2021-01-01	12-28	12-30	12-21	12-30	12-26	12-28
Peak daily increment	61	88	97	173	109	172	178	77	480	587	191	59	326	131	108	108	232	423	1251	74	158	66	58	158	49	485	141	441	228	107	525	155	310	317	107	505	93	189	62	123	123	141	98	255	87	149	171	173	301	90	265	52	200	250	285	60	90	71	66	244	53	95	284	35	367	289	38	183	599	151	69	188	72	246	25	249	187	118	323	539	60	53	76	160	110	52	225	102	164	146	108	54	143	589	271	95	74	75	89	73	125	53	38	122	80	92	56	180	90	449	120	220	59	201	57	398	175	103	339	101	109	135	121	477	100	156	47	443	57	115	450	138	84	134	236	275	148	71	100	296	197	190	312	429	107	379	287	104	444	71	113	731	272	200	90	37	377	90	420	29	46	297	49	62	148	118	362	79	105	63	123	85	721	23	50	159	105	50	108	59	124	122	41	55	275	158	124	225	90	44	125	126	109	154	118	201	104	174	621	83	81	171	52	187	40	133	139	56	96	199	80	86	60	175	34	26	163	450	42	82	404	65	130	243	209	245	167	98	107	101	69	180	27	42	85	82	96	78	108	80	67	102	114	245	294	455	131	151	222	93	57	112	177	132	194	66	42	201	105	320	189	181	125	55	107	46	140	321	91	44	138	123	369	138	49	11	557	153	92	107	85	258	324	452	387	228	77	139	117	159	65	154	87	30	83	42	67	115	216	219	263	83	149	432	106	139	375	106	115	96	173	71	69	186
Days since peak	61	62	61	67	61	80	67	65	62	65	136	61	65	60	46	58	61	66	59	61	61	54	50	56	103	60	67	120	66	61	61	75	61	60	63	67	62	66	58	58	61	115	67	62	63	80	61	67	67	53	66	59	62	66	67	55	67	67	57	62	61	60	59	66	66	58	60	61	61	67	63	67	67	55	45	135	61	81	62	61	64	59	64	67	116	62	118	61	59	60	67	63	66	63	74	66	51	152	65	60	70	60	53	61	62	67	61	66	67	61	67	61	66	67	67	67	66	61	61	66	66	75	61	74	60	67	59	61	60	64	63	67	56	60	61	66	60	60	63	121	67	61	61	59	58	61	60	67	61	61	89	61	61	66	67	53	58	54	66	114	59	67	67	67	66	63	66	62	60	59	54	114	60	80	61	124	62	67	114	67	58	115	67	53	61	67	56	59	67	61	60	61	61	57	51	59	55	59	67	51	52	66	60	67	61	60	75	57	75	132	58	61	61	63	31	60	59	59	54	67	61	59	64	61	58	63	61	67	66	67	60	62	63	53	66	109	64	67	68	54	60	61	66	67	74	60	62	67	62	63	118	66	60	67	117	67	65	66	61	67	81	63	60	58	65	58	53	61	67	62	67	67	76	65	58	67	66	60	66	62	67	121	60	61	70	63	67	67	66	67	61	63	68	75	60	81	66	61	61	59	59	66	66	60	61	66	61	56	60	58	67	58	62	60
Last total	2814	4834	8276	7830	9063	9542	11227	3738	22887	29526	16998	4113	17290	7828	7450	7990	13022	21794	96220	6580	17156	8871	5647	24284	4432	24645	6804	44604	10534	6301	27517	6767	13982	29495	5777	23838	5994	8945	6697	9536	16363	13374	5391	13660	6790	9766	8089	8134	15108	11606	12388	3606	8804	19755	20636	5828	4698	4106	7400	10866	3009	5045	13652	2489	35930	22444	2649	7575	30175	8140	6906	10044	4000	19188	2691	21072	11243	7656	25458	29740	2845	3909	4694	7976	5879	4336	16749	9030	8397	6465	5462	2936	7107	29180	12212	5068	6643	4812	5016	4952	7933	2986	4534	13159	7681	6208	3697	10029	5368	21730	7108	11563	4026	12541	4810	20322	7710	7301	19882	4147	8350	6111	6795	26356	6630	8006	4688	25234	5669	5472	23758	7258	7459	7118	6643	14554	8639	5586	7164	17506	11746	30964	16983	23589	9064	57330	33931	4770	21205	6224	6561	47310	18884	12449	3689	2622	49915	7565	25595	2439	3253	15687	2110	3121	6618	11801	19097	4241	5895	6698	22335	7971	34488	1915	5690	7687	6113	5242	8050	2929	9650	11659	3971	5547	17123	16481	7150	29213	8016	4715	21633	9023	9356	14066	8722	13725	12905	10487	31925	8872	5700	8916	4349	10402	2471	19846	6240	5801	4826	19037	6038	5286	6528	7562	1532	1787	21770	32396	5294	5019	23136	4551	6709	39624	14405	14582	13867	5774	4631	5497	6816	14534	1586	4615	6815	4376	5341	4512	5553	7570	4966	8368	10823	13566	14323	21919	7127	7624	16444	8291	5004	5652	19585	14721	18697	4782	3567	20924	5342	15484	13041	10540	16977	5037	5343	2865	10566	9597	5109	2815	11068	6063	17440	7867	4030	957	28052	15654	5525	4722	4840	22735	24422	24289	21338	16994	6804	7657	5679	7755	4572	7898	6084	1133	8480	4224	3849	6120	13555	27298	16311	4729	8001	23718	6562	7851	23790	5788	5079	6106	10151	6406	5156	11856
Last daily increment	6	7	15	8	16	5	19	4	16	29	49	3	24	4	14	9	28	11	175	18	17	15	11	39	16	35	8	94	10	8	30	5	9	59	5	11	6	3	12	10	25	31	16	12	11	1	8	6	21	26	7	2	11	24	38	9	4	7	9	9	6	12	9	1	83	44	0	13	23	20	23	10	7	32	2	40	20	7	51	30	7	3	5	7	11	11	39	25	12	3	13	1	4	24	12	6	20	7	7	15	7	0	21	22	23	2	8	5	6	19	9	18	4	24	13	13	5	22	17	8	14	6	8	15	12	7	6	27	14	3	29	17	14	11	4	9	10	6	20	61	8	69	16	19	12	124	94	5	16	13	8	64	38	5	0	6	96	15	17	1	5	16	3	4	8	28	28	5	7	10	37	13	25	0	7	20	3	6	25	6	7	22	10	30	29	26	7	50	15	9	33	8	9	26	9	14	20	12	26	11	12	10	3	17	5	30	6	8	5	49	9	6	14	5	7	1	41	53	4	13	21	10	1	77	23	24	18	12	0	11	26	18	1	17	11	6	2	6	5	18	5	14	23	28	9	7	6	12	42	15	10	10	45	23	31	12	9	40	6	18	16	31	26	11	5	3	33	9	13	2	7	7	18	10	1	0	15	26	5	1	7	65	34	28	13	22	14	12	4	3	5	12	10	0	9	11	4	13	11	38	29	6	13	37	5	16	27	11	7	5	28	10	16	14
Last week	26	92	134	114	202	47	136	28	136	236	350	40	114	72	155	63	173	114	1247	115	209	99	98	411	112	228	59	785	88	87	238	53	111	310	46	124	77	45	134	88	273	217	78	82	103	29	62	34	183	230	90	30	91	296	293	92	44	41	107	153	60	137	114	22	479	376	15	91	206	108	127	66	72	303	43	407	183	62	357	331	44	59	34	46	92	84	249	173	89	44	84	29	40	133	83	31	155	54	76	176	41	22	83	177	172	32	46	63	67	122	41	98	56	115	100	122	60	111	175	36	130	62	77	137	116	60	74	245	119	31	236	144	111	104	23	80	56	101	110	383	64	558	158	125	141	975	638	41	98	93	99	499	301	58	20	74	638	168	153	37	54	121	30	33	63	193	244	28	71	140	229	100	171	13	52	165	50	105	149	27	90	195	97	190	225	247	63	475	137	83	283	111	88	326	83	159	223	111	182	121	124	59	44	83	33	314	54	68	29	367	108	38	113	52	35	18	298	508	46	83	215	45	34	588	257	165	158	55	29	73	148	144	8	159	118	43	48	48	58	134	59	104	169	224	90	100	57	57	254	113	67	72	378	216	290	84	55	302	46	139	86	203	304	105	32	23	244	112	64	18	74	56	127	57	49	7	126	192	46	17	71	407	320	124	170	184	101	76	42	32	86	68	90	4	94	105	26	80	88	403	259	38	70	259	72	93	273	87	106	114	171	72	123	112
Previous peak date	--	--	10-27	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	10-28	10-18	--	--	03-23	--	10-13	10-11	10-27	10-12	--	10-29	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	10-12	10-28	--	--	--	--	10-04	09-29	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-13	--	--	10-29	10-13	--	10-19	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	11-02	--	10-03	11-02	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	11-02	--	10-18	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-29	--	--	--	--	10-20	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	10-11	10-30	10-11	--	--	--	10-21	--	--	09-27	10-25	10-17	--	--	--	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	11-01	--	--	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-27	09-29	--	10-07	09-27	11-01	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	--	09-22	10-26	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	09-26	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	11-04	08-02	--	--	09-30	--	--	10-25	--	--	--	11-03	--	10-13	--	--	11-03	10-26	--	10-13	10-13	--	10-18	--	10-12	--	--	11-02	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-19	11-01	11-03	--	09-30	--	--	09-29	11-01	--	--	--	--	--	10-28	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-21	10-13	--	10-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-09	--	--	--	10-18	10-12	--	10-25	--	10-06	--	--	--	--	10-18	10-29	--	--	11-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-25	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-20	10-17	--	10-21	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-24	--	--	10-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	10-29	--	11-03	--	10-11	--	10-06
Previous peak daily increment			82		62							29			77	72			95		163	98	55	235		135		55					71	321					57	70	159						40			131			34	117		53			62				68		293	144	20							165	29		55									31					32						55						41	129	71				25			71	31	56				65									43		52				59									360	152		86	540	254					529					611	61								73					391				51									58	68			608			256				82		102			95	43		41	42		196		63			44		67				237	232	86		183			435	113						65								24	70		76							118				183	125		31		127					177	46			90								48			138								134	58		22						91		22			320				137				38		31		65		130
Low between peaks			28		26							8			36	24			9		54	28	19	61		34		27					21	82					19	33	55						9			32			16	56		18			31				14		106	71	9							53	7		18									15					8						17						11	25	23				12			22	7	24				18									11		14				21									95	20		23	154	123					58					136	19								34					54				14									16	6			70			57				19		40			25	13		12	20		62		22			19		14				48	91	19		26			119	34						22								11	28		24							30				46	48		9		58					33	15			31								7			27								34	21		11						19		5			77				21				9		11		18		16

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-02-27 to 2021-03-05

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-26	2814	4834	8276	7830	9063	9542	11227	3738	22887	29526	16998	4113	17290	7828	7450	7990	13022	21794	96220	6580	17156	8871	5647	24284	4432	24645	6804	44604	10534	6301	27517	6767	13982	29495	5777	23838	5994	8945	6697	9536	16363	13374	5391	13660	6790	9766	8089	8134	15108	11606	12388	3606	8804	19755	20636	5828	4698	4106	7400	10866	3009	5045	13652	2489	35930	22444	2649	7575	30175	8140	6906	10044	4000	19188	2691	21072	11243	7656	25458	29740	2845	3909	4694	7976	5879	4336	16749	9030	8397	6465	5462	2936	7107	29180	12212	5068	6643	4812	5016	4952	7933	2986	4534	13159	7681	6208	3697	10029	5368	21730	7108	11563	4026	12541	4810	20322	7710	7301	19882	4147	8350	6111	6795	26356	6630	8006	4688	25234	5669	5472	23758	7258	7459	7118	6643	14554	8639	5586	7164	17506	11746	30964	16983	23589	9064	57330	33931	4770	21205	6224	6561	47310	18884	12449	3689	2622	49915	7565	25595	2439	3253	15687	2110	3121	6618	11801	19097	4241	5895	6698	22335	7971	34488	1915	5690	7687	6113	5242	8050	2929	9650	11659	3971	5547	17123	16481	7150	29213	8016	4715	21633	9023	9356	14066	8722	13725	12905	10487	31925	8872	5700	8916	4349	10402	2471	19846	6240	5801	4826	19037	6038	5286	6528	7562	1532	1787	21770	32396	5294	5019	23136	4551	6709	39624	14405	14582	13867	5774	4631	5497	6816	14534	1586	4615	6815	4376	5341	4512	5553	7570	4966	8368	10823	13566	14323	21919	7127	7624	16444	8291	5004	5652	19585	14721	18697	4782	3567	20924	5342	15484	13041	10540	16977	5037	5343	2865	10566	9597	5109	2815	11068	6063	17440	7867	4030	957	28052	15654	5525	4722	4840	22735	24422	24289	21338	16994	6804	7657	5679	7755	4572	7898	6084	8480	4224	3849	6120	13555	27298	16311	4729	8001	23718	6562	7851	23790	5788	5079	6106	10151	6406	5156	11856
2021-02-27	2818	4855	8303	7854	9132	9554	11270	3745	22950	29580	17070	4123	17320	7841	7497	8003	13060	21820	96570	6601	17180	8891	5665	24440	4447	24690	6818	44810	10550	6319	27560	6782	14020	29570	5803	23890	6007	8959	6731	9541	16450	13420	5402	13690	6833	9789	8103	8146	15150	11680	12410	3613	8823	19810	20700	5846	4709	4114	7420	10890	3012	5106	13670	2494	36030	22580	2653	7599	30230	8156	6942	10060	4014	19290	2699	21180	11350	7672	25560	29810	2861	3919	4708	7990	5890	4353	16840	9089	8435	6477	5499	2941	7118	29240	12220	5078	6670	4820	5031	4987	7941	3007	4551	13190	7719	6212	3719	10040	5403	21750	7115	11600	4036	12560	4827	20360	7732	7319	19910	4151	8376	6111	6814	26430	6655	8018	4701	25290	5691	5474	23890	7309	7464	7157	6650	14570	8645	5620	7212	17540	11770	31120	17010	23620	9117	57570	34090	4779	21250	6256	6576	47470	18940	12490	3697	2635	50090	7623	25630	2446	3267	15700	2115	3127	6650	11830	19160	4247	5908	6726	22370	7983	34560	1920	5715	7713	6129	5260	8073	2945	9699	11690	3988	5572	17230	16550	7163	29270	8067	4728	21710	9056	9383	14190	8741	13790	12940	10510	31970	8935	5722	8938	4359	10420	2479	19910	6254	5813	4829	19140	6069	5293	6551	7572	1535	1792	21910	32490	5302	5064	23190	4562	6715	39760	14480	14670	13910	5788	4639	5511	6848	14590	1588	4631	6836	4384	5352	4517	5565	7592	4992	8424	10850	13650	14350	21950	7148	7637	16520	8326	5020	5668	19690	14810	18750	4800	3571	20990	5352	15510	13040	10570	17070	5073	5356	2879	10640	9632	5131	2821	11090	6068	17500	7873	4044	959	28080	15730	5539	4728	4856	22870	24640	24350	21390	17100	6822	7669	5683	7779	4615	7916	6108	8533	4240	3855	6150	13600	27430	16370	4735	8037	23810	6572	7870	23930	5806	5084	6126	10180	6436	5175	11880
2021-02-28	2825	4868	8331	7875	9185	9558	11320	3757	23040	29670	17120	4153	17340	7862	7532	8013	13090	21870	96800	6639	17220	8943	5698	24540	4464	24720	6850	44970	10580	6373	27590	6796	14050	29620	5814	23950	6038	8982	6758	9548	16500	13510	5416	13730	6868	9802	8139	8168	15190	11730	12430	3631	8844	19850	20750	5896	4718	4131	7474	10930	3023	5146	13700	2507	36180	22680	2663	7616	30310	8173	6967	10080	4036	19350	2718	21270	11420	7685	25640	29870	2887	3937	4716	8020	5904	4388	16900	9135	8461	6486	5524	2948	7148	29330	12230	5096	6714	4829	5067	5020	7949	3017	4575	13220	7757	6216	3730	10070	5423	21770	7142	11650	4062	12580	4858	20410	7749	7350	19970	4161	8399	6114	6833	26480	6675	8032	4735	25400	5729	5475	23980	7342	7471	7180	6671	14590	8655	5698	7243	17580	11820	31240	17050	23670	9150	57760	34220	4803	21300	6288	6593	47560	19060	12510	3710	2649	50230	7662	25670	2461	3284	15720	2129	3139	6663	11860	19210	4253	5918	6792	22440	7996	34610	1925	5725	7733	6162	5290	8095	2952	9738	11750	4013	5599	17290	16600	7210	29400	8105	4744	21780	9079	9407	14260	8754	13830	13030	10540	32030	8977	5761	8954	4383	10460	2493	19970	6265	5832	4835	19230	6118	5305	6605	7584	1549	1806	22000	32530	5320	5093	23270	4588	6720	39890	14530	14730	13940	5797	4663	5533	6874	14620	1595	4651	6867	4403	5378	4527	5591	7618	5005	8458	10890	13700	14390	22000	7199	7651	16580	8353	5033	5701	19770	14860	18820	4813	3577	21040	5367	15560	13040	10610	17130	5096	5383	2885	10690	9704	5166	2837	11100	6071	17530	7882	4082	960	28120	15780	5547	4753	4877	22970	24750	24410	21420	17170	6854	7679	5701	7801	4640	7926	6130	8563	4253	3861	6167	13620	27520	16510	4761	8052	23870	6598	7888	24020	5837	5091	6170	10220	6453	5202	11910
2021-03-01	2831	4898	8367	7896	9254	9573	11360	3766	23110	29730	17190	4174	17370	7878	7571	8020	13120	21910	97100	6669	17260	8980	5724	24670	4491	24760	6872	45150	10600	6410	27640	6807	14080	29680	5825	24000	6061	8997	6793	9570	16580	13570	5428	13750	6896	9814	8164	8182	15230	11790	12450	3643	8862	19920	20820	5931	4729	4143	7512	10950	3030	5185	13730	2516	36310	22800	2670	7630	30370	8190	7010	10100	4054	19420	2732	21370	11500	7697	25730	29930	2907	3950	4731	8040	5917	4414	16950	9188	8486	6495	5546	2954	7168	29390	12250	5109	6749	4837	5093	5065	7959	3030	4595	13250	7807	6223	3744	10080	5441	21780	7160	11700	4080	12600	4882	20450	7766	7374	20020	4169	8428	6124	6848	26530	6708	8043	4758	25480	5760	5482	24070	7382	7482	7211	6682	14610	8662	5754	7283	17660	11850	31360	17080	23710	9191	57960	34370	4819	21350	6322	6609	47670	19150	12530	3718	2669	50360	7726	25710	2472	3296	15730	2138	3148	6678	11900	19260	4259	5926	6840	22490	8014	34660	1928	5739	7755	6184	5313	8116	2960	9775	11800	4034	5645	17370	16670	7240	29500	8141	4758	21850	9102	9440	14340	8773	13870	13090	10570	32070	9020	5791	8972	4400	10480	2503	20040	6273	5846	4841	19310	6156	5314	6643	7594	1559	1816	22090	32630	5333	5126	23320	4606	6724	40010	14600	14770	13980	5809	4678	5549	6919	14660	1600	4678	6893	4417	5395	4535	5610	7642	5022	8498	10920	13760	14420	22020	7235	7662	16640	8383	5054	5726	19860	14920	18880	4830	3582	21120	5379	15600	13050	10640	17200	5120	5401	2897	10750	9753	5191	2848	11120	6074	17560	7894	4108	961	28150	15830	5556	4768	4894	23060	24880	24450	21480	17260	6879	7690	5712	7817	4668	7941	6147	8592	4268	3867	6185	13640	27630	16600	4777	8077	23970	6617	7912	24110	5860	5121	6202	10250	6475	5227	11930
2021-03-02	2835	4923	8394	7910	9299	9578	11400	3773	23160	29780	17250	4189	17380	7893	7608	8023	13150	21940	97330	6694	17290	9008	5746	24760	4508	24780	6890	45300	10620	6438	27680	6817	14100	29740	5838	24040	6079	9010	6823	9573	16620	13630	5440	13780	6917	9820	8183	8193	15270	11830	12460	3652	8878	19950	20860	5957	4730	4153	7542	10980	3035	5211	13740	2522	36420	22880	2676	7657	30420	8205	7025	10120	4069	19480	2743	21450	11530	7708	25790	30000	2924	3961	4738	8056	5929	4435	17010	9219	8506	6504	5568	2959	7182	29440	12250	5119	6781	4845	5113	5105	7969	3037	4613	13280	7835	6229	3754	10100	5457	21800	7173	11730	4093	12620	4902	20480	7773	7396	20050	4175	8448	6133	6861	26570	6734	8055	4777	25550	5786	5485	24130	7411	7493	7240	6690	14630	8668	5798	7312	17710	11880	31460	17110	23750	9221	58130	34490	4832	21380	6339	6624	47780	19220	12540	3725	2682	50450	7761	25740	2480	3305	15750	2145	3155	6694	11940	19310	4264	5934	6878	22540	8028	34700	1931	5751	7778	6202	5334	8137	2971	9793	11840	4053	5674	17420	16720	7263	29580	8178	4771	21900	9123	9457	14440	8791	13910	13140	10600	32110	9048	5818	8980	4413	10500	2512	20090	6283	5859	4845	19380	6188	5322	6675	7603	1566	1824	22160	32680	5343	5149	23370	4621	6728	40100	14630	14810	14020	5816	4689	5564	6949	14690	1603	4710	6917	4428	5410	4540	5625	7664	5034	8519	10950	13800	14450	22050	7264	7673	16680	8404	5069	5747	19940	14960	18930	4849	3586	21170	5390	15630	13060	10670	17260	5144	5416	2903	10810	9793	5212	2856	11130	6078	17580	7901	4129	961	28170	15860	5569	4779	4908	23140	24990	24490	21500	17310	6900	7700	5720	7831	4692	7959	6155	8615	4283	3871	6202	13670	27700	16680	4788	8095	24020	6632	7930	24190	5880	5133	6229	10280	6492	5241	11950
2021-03-03	2840	4940	8422	7934	9340	9597	11440	3779	23210	29840	17310	4203	17400	7907	7634	8023	13180	21960	97620	6719	17320	9035	5766	24840	4519	24840	6907	45440	10640	6463	27730	6827	14120	29790	5845	24070	6096	9022	6847	9582	16670	13680	5451	13800	6942	9828	8200	8203	15300	11880	12480	3660	8895	20000	20920	5983	4734	4162	7570	11000	3039	5243	13770	2529	36520	22960	2681	7677	30460	8220	7050	10130	4083	19530	2753	21530	11620	7720	25870	30060	2940	3972	4746	8070	5940	4455	17070	9256	8519	6508	5584	2964	7196	29480	12270	5128	6811	4852	5132	5138	7983	3046	4630	13310	7858	6236	3762	10110	5473	21810	7185	11770	4106	12640	4922	20510	7781	7416	20090	4180	8466	6136	6874	26600	6753	8068	4795	25610	5811	5490	24200	7446	7500	7263	6696	14640	8674	5840	7343	17770	11900	31570	17130	23780	9247	58310	34600	4843	21410	6355	6639	47870	19290	12550	3731	2688	50530	7793	25760	2488	3315	15760	2153	3162	6709	11970	19350	4269	5936	6915	22580	8045	34730	1934	5763	7802	6219	5353	8158	2974	9816	11880	4071	5705	17480	16770	7284	29660	8199	4784	21950	9140	9476	14510	8814	13940	13180	10620	32150	9069	5844	8992	4425	10530	2520	20150	6294	5871	4848	19460	6218	5329	6704	7611	1572	1831	22240	32710	5353	5178	23420	4635	6731	40190	14690	14850	14050	5830	4700	5578	6971	14710	1606	4735	6939	4438	5423	4548	5639	7687	5045	8536	10980	13840	14470	22070	7290	7683	16740	8429	5078	5766	20000	15010	18980	4871	3590	21230	5399	15660	13070	10700	17310	5167	5430	2910	10850	9829	5232	2863	11150	6082	17610	7910	4148	964	28200	15900	5577	4789	4922	23210	25070	24530	21520	17360	6920	7711	5727	7843	4714	7980	6169	8636	4298	3876	6215	13670	27780	16750	4798	8115	24090	6645	7948	24250	5899	5158	6255	10310	6506	5257	11970
2021-03-04	2844	4955	8445	7941	9366	9602	11470	3785	23260	29880	17380	4214	17420	7919	7657	8026	13210	21990	97800	6741	17360	9057	5785	24910	4533	24860	6922	45570	10650	6484	27760	6836	14140	29840	5849	24100	6111	9033	6866	9597	16720	13730	5461	13820	6958	9833	8215	8212	15340	11910	12490	3668	8911	20030	20960	6003	4738	4170	7593	11020	3043	5266	13780	2534	36620	23020	2685	7694	30510	8235	7071	10140	4096	19580	2762	21590	11660	7731	25910	30100	2955	3982	4751	8082	5951	4473	17100	9281	8536	6513	5600	2969	7207	29530	12290	5136	6839	4860	5148	5159	7991	3048	4646	13330	7886	6243	3768	10120	5482	21830	7194	11800	4117	12660	4939	20530	7789	7435	20120	4185	8490	6138	6886	26640	6772	8076	4810	25670	5835	5492	24250	7470	7511	7280	6700	14650	8679	5876	7367	17840	11920	31650	17160	23810	9267	58470	34690	4852	21440	6367	6654	47960	19350	12560	3737	2704	50590	7813	25790	2496	3324	15770	2159	3168	6720	12000	19400	4274	5937	6946	22620	8060	34770	1937	5774	7826	6233	5371	8179	2978	9837	11910	4088	5726	17520	16810	7300	29730	8215	4796	21990	9162	9485	14550	8831	13970	13230	10640	32180	9086	5867	8996	4436	10540	2528	20200	6303	5882	4851	19500	6245	5336	6729	7619	1577	1836	22310	32720	5362	5194	23460	4646	6734	40270	14700	14870	14080	5840	4708	5590	6985	14740	1608	4756	6961	4447	5435	4556	5651	7708	5055	8553	11010	13880	14490	22080	7312	7694	16780	8448	5089	5783	20050	15040	19030	4881	3594	21270	5408	15680	13080	10730	17360	5182	5442	2915	10870	9861	5250	2869	11160	6086	17640	7918	4165	965	28220	15930	5582	4796	4936	23280	25150	24560	21540	17400	6938	7721	5732	7855	4726	7990	6178	8652	4313	3881	6227	13690	27860	16820	4806	8126	24140	6657	7958	24300	5916	5168	6277	10340	6518	5276	11990
2021-03-05	2847	4961	8460	7954	9389	9609	11500	3791	23300	29930	17420	4225	17440	7932	7675	8037	13230	22010	98000	6762	17380	9077	5802	24960	4548	24890	6935	45680	10660	6503	27790	6846	14150	29900	5855	24140	6125	9043	6879	9608	16750	13770	5471	13840	6975	9839	8228	8221	15370	11940	12510	3674	8926	20060	21000	6023	4748	4178	7615	11040	3047	5285	13800	2538	36710	23070	2689	7706	30550	8249	7092	10160	4109	19620	2770	21630	11680	7743	25970	30140	2969	3991	4758	8094	5962	4490	17150	9308	8551	6520	5613	2974	7217	29570	12300	5144	6866	4868	5163	5179	7996	3052	4662	13360	7911	6246	3776	10140	5491	21840	7203	11820	4127	12680	4956	20560	7798	7454	20150	4189	8507	6145	6898	26680	6788	8082	4824	25720	5857	5495	24280	7488	7525	7294	6704	14670	8684	5909	7385	17890	11940	31730	17180	23830	9284	58610	34790	4860	21470	6383	6669	48020	19410	12570	3742	2711	50690	7837	25820	2502	3330	15780	2164	3173	6732	12020	19440	4278	5945	6975	22660	8076	34810	1939	5782	7851	6247	5389	8200	2985	9848	11950	4105	5752	17550	16840	7315	29790	8236	4809	22030	9173	9498	14590	8842	13990	13270	10660	32210	9103	5890	9007	4446	10560	2535	20230	6311	5893	4855	19560	6272	5342	6753	7627	1582	1841	22350	32800	5370	5206	23510	4657	6737	40360	14740	14910	14100	5849	4716	5603	7007	14760	1610	4774	6982	4455	5446	4563	5662	7730	5064	8571	11030	13920	14510	22100	7333	7704	16820	8465	5098	5799	20100	15070	19080	4895	3597	21310	5417	15710	13090	10760	17390	5194	5453	2920	10900	9891	5267	2874	11170	6090	17660	7926	4180	966	28240	15960	5588	4802	4949	23350	25180	24590	21550	17420	6955	7731	5737	7866	4737	8001	6192	8665	4328	3886	6243	13700	27910	16870	4813	8137	24170	6668	7970	24330	5933	5176	6298	10370	6530	5291	12000

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-02-27 to 2021-03-05

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-02-26	2814	4834	8276	7830	9063	9542	11227	3738	22887	29526	16998	4113	17290	7828	7450	7990	13022	21794	96220	6580	17156	8871	5647	24284	4432	24645	6804	44604	10534	6301	27517	6767	13982	29495	5777	23838	5994	8945	6697	9536	16363	13374	5391	13660	6790	9766	8089	8134	15108	11606	12388	3606	8804	19755	20636	5828	4698	4106	7400	10866	3009	5045	13652	2489	35930	22444	2649	7575	30175	8140	6906	10044	4000	19188	2691	21072	11243	7656	25458	29740	2845	3909	4694	7976	5879	4336	16749	9030	8397	6465	5462	2936	7107	29180	12212	5068	6643	4812	5016	4952	7933	2986	4534	13159	7681	6208	3697	10029	5368	21730	7108	11563	4026	12541	4810	20322	7710	7301	19882	4147	8350	6111	6795	26356	6630	8006	4688	25234	5669	5472	23758	7258	7459	7118	6643	14554	8639	5586	7164	17506	11746	30964	16983	23589	9064	57330	33931	4770	21205	6224	6561	47310	18884	12449	3689	2622	49915	7565	25595	2439	3253	15687	2110	3121	6618	11801	19097	4241	5895	6698	22335	7971	34488	1915	5690	7687	6113	5242	8050	2929	9650	11659	3971	5547	17123	16481	7150	29213	8016	4715	21633	9023	9356	14066	8722	13725	12905	10487	31925	8872	5700	8916	4349	10402	2471	19846	6240	5801	4826	19037	6038	5286	6528	7562	1532	1787	21770	32396	5294	5019	23136	4551	6709	39624	14405	14582	13867	5774	4631	5497	6816	14534	1586	4615	6815	4376	5341	4512	5553	7570	4966	8368	10823	13566	14323	21919	7127	7624	16444	8291	5004	5652	19585	14721	18697	4782	3567	20924	5342	15484	13041	10540	16977	5037	5343	2865	10566	9597	5109	2815	11068	6063	17440	7867	4030	957	28052	15654	5525	4722	4840	22735	24422	24289	21338	16994	6804	7657	5679	7755	4572	7898	6084	8480	4224	3849	6120	13555	27298	16311	4729	8001	23718	6562	7851	23790	5788	5079	6106	10151	6406	5156	11856
2021-02-27	2818	4844	8287	7844	9081	9545	11240	3743	22910	29560	17060	4118	17310	7838	7476	8000	13040	21810	96370	6600	17180	8886	5660	24340	4448	24670	6811	44730	10550	6315	27530	6775	14000	29540	5786	23850	6002	8950	6717	9545	16410	13400	5403	13670	6804	9771	8098	8142	15130	11640	12400	3612	8813	19780	20670	5846	4702	4113	7414	10880	3019	5067	13660	2492	35990	22490	2652	7588	30210	8155	6925	10060	4012	19230	2698	21120	11260	7665	25510	29770	2852	3915	4700	7988	5887	4345	16780	9052	8409	6468	5473	2938	7116	29200	12220	5075	6665	4822	5023	4967	7936	2991	4548	13180	7703	6212	3704	10040	5378	21750	7117	11570	4035	12550	4825	20340	7721	7316	19900	4154	8371	6115	6807	26380	6641	8011	4694	25280	5687	5473	23800	7280	7473	7129	6652	14560	8647	5603	7176	17560	11760	31050	17000	23610	9084	57470	34010	4775	21220	6238	6574	47380	18940	12460	3693	2629	50010	7581	25620	2445	3261	15710	2114	3126	6630	11820	19140	4246	5905	6704	22380	7983	34510	1917	5697	7708	6119	5257	8074	2934	9661	11690	3986	5571	17160	16520	7163	29280	8034	4727	21680	9036	9369	14120	8730	13750	12930	10500	31960	8894	5720	8922	4357	10410	2478	19890	6248	5811	4828	19080	6054	5292	6548	7566	1540	1792	21810	32450	5300	5032	23160	4562	6714	39710	14440	14620	13890	5782	4637	5506	6835	14550	1588	4634	6827	4384	5351	4517	5562	7588	4975	8382	10850	13600	14340	21940	7139	7634	16470	8310	5011	5664	19650	14760	18740	4791	3575	20960	5348	15500	13050	10570	17020	5055	5350	2869	10600	9618	5119	2820	11080	6070	17470	7873	4040	958	28070	15690	5530	4726	4849	22790	24470	24320	21360	17020	6819	7665	5683	7761	4589	7902	6090	8495	4238	3852	6132	13570	27350	16340	4737	8013	23750	6568	7863	23830	5802	5088	6123	10180	6418	5172	11870
2021-02-28	2822	4853	8302	7861	9111	9550	11270	3751	22940	29590	17110	4128	17320	7851	7504	8010	13060	21830	96550	6625	17200	8907	5676	24420	4465	24700	6820	44880	10560	6338	27550	6786	14010	29580	5792	23880	6015	8957	6740	9552	16470	13450	5412	13690	6827	9778	8110	8154	15160	11680	12410	3619	8822	19820	20710	5872	4709	4122	7437	10900	3032	5097	13670	2499	36070	22550	2658	7597	30250	8165	6945	10070	4025	19280	2706	21180	11290	7673	25570	29810	2860	3925	4705	8004	5894	4360	16830	9080	8421	6472	5486	2941	7129	29230	12230	5081	6691	4833	5036	4991	7940	2996	4560	13210	7731	6213	3713	10050	5388	21760	7128	11590	4047	12570	4842	20360	7732	7333	19930	4160	8392	6121	6820	26400	6658	8017	4709	25320	5710	5475	23840	7301	7483	7138	6661	14570	8656	5634	7184	17600	11780	31150	17020	23630	9103	57620	34100	4786	21240	6256	6589	47440	19000	12470	3698	2643	50130	7608	25640	2453	3271	15730	2120	3132	6643	11850	19180	4252	5919	6732	22420	7995	34540	1920	5705	7732	6129	5277	8093	2936	9680	11730	4007	5597	17200	16560	7181	29370	8060	4737	21730	9052	9385	14160	8739	13770	12980	10510	31990	8919	5745	8931	4370	10420	2486	19930	6256	5823	4833	19150	6077	5296	6577	7572	1549	1799	21860	32510	5307	5046	23190	4576	6720	39810	14490	14650	13910	5787	4647	5514	6855	14580	1591	4654	6846	4395	5360	4523	5577	7606	4986	8395	10880	13640	14360	21960	7156	7642	16510	8329	5019	5679	19710	14790	18770	4801	3582	21000	5357	15520	13060	10600	17080	5073	5358	2873	10640	9648	5132	2827	11090	6078	17490	7878	4054	959	28080	15710	5532	4735	4861	22860	24510	24340	21380	17050	6837	7670	5693	7769	4611	7908	6109	8509	4254	3855	6141	13580	27390	16400	4747	8023	23780	6585	7874	23870	5816	5093	6141	10210	6428	5193	11890
2021-03-01	2826	4871	8324	7886	9168	9559	11290	3757	22970	29630	17170	4139	17330	7865	7533	8021	13090	21850	96770	6648	17240	8927	5696	24520	4487	24740	6832	45030	10580	6360	27590	6797	14020	29640	5799	23900	6031	8963	6769	9568	16530	13500	5421	13700	6846	9785	8126	8165	15190	11730	12420	3626	8830	19880	20760	5894	4717	4129	7462	10920	3044	5127	13700	2504	36170	22630	2663	7607	30290	8175	6975	10080	4040	19340	2714	21270	11330	7682	25640	29870	2868	3937	4716	8017	5901	4383	16870	9117	8437	6479	5500	2944	7140	29250	12240	5089	6723	4843	5052	5030	7948	3005	4573	13230	7765	6216	3726	10060	5400	21780	7137	11600	4057	12590	4859	20380	7743	7357	19960	4166	8414	6131	6833	26430	6686	8022	4725	25370	5735	5480	23880	7328	7496	7157	6668	14580	8665	5660	7206	17660	11800	31260	17050	23660	9135	57800	34240	4795	21260	6276	6605	47520	19060	12480	3704	2661	50260	7650	25670	2460	3281	15750	2125	3138	6656	11890	19220	4258	5933	6769	22460	8010	34570	1923	5716	7758	6140	5295	8112	2941	9701	11760	4026	5636	17240	16600	7195	29460	8088	4748	21780	9071	9405	14220	8750	13800	13020	10530	32020	8945	5768	8942	4381	10440	2494	20000	6263	5834	4839	19210	6098	5301	6603	7580	1557	1805	21910	32630	5316	5064	23220	4589	6727	39910	14540	14680	13930	5794	4655	5524	6891	14600	1593	4678	6871	4404	5371	4530	5587	7629	5000	8422	10900	13690	14370	21980	7172	7651	16560	8348	5035	5691	19790	14840	18810	4814	3594	21060	5368	15550	13070	10630	17150	5095	5365	2880	10680	9673	5147	2833	11100	6086	17510	7885	4068	960	28100	15740	5537	4743	4869	22930	24570	24360	21420	17090	6854	7675	5699	7776	4633	7917	6125	8529	4270	3858	6155	13600	27470	16460	4757	8035	23840	6600	7889	23920	5838	5112	6164	10240	6443	5214	11910
2021-03-02	2830	4889	8342	7903	9205	9565	11310	3763	22990	29670	17220	4146	17350	7877	7560	8031	13110	21870	96960	6670	17270	8947	5713	24590	4505	24770	6842	45180	10600	6378	27620	6807	14040	29690	5810	23910	6044	8969	6795	9576	16580	13540	5431	13720	6864	9789	8141	8176	15220	11760	12430	3633	8838	19930	20800	5914	4721	4136	7485	10950	3054	5152	13710	2509	36250	22690	2667	7620	30320	8186	6991	10090	4051	19390	2722	21340	11350	7691	25690	29930	2875	3945	4721	8028	5907	4399	16910	9143	8451	6488	5517	2947	7149	29270	12250	5096	6754	4853	5067	5067	7954	3010	4586	13260	7790	6219	3736	10070	5413	21790	7144	11620	4067	12600	4875	20400	7753	7374	19980	4171	8435	6142	6844	26450	6710	8028	4738	25410	5755	5484	23920	7352	7510	7174	6674	14590	8674	5684	7223	17710	11810	31360	17070	23680	9156	57970	34350	4803	21270	6291	6622	47610	19120	12480	3708	2674	50360	7679	25690	2467	3289	15770	2130	3143	6670	11920	19260	4264	5945	6793	22500	8023	34600	1926	5725	7785	6148	5313	8131	2951	9712	11800	4045	5664	17280	16640	7208	29550	8119	4760	21830	9090	9418	14320	8763	13840	13060	10540	32050	8967	5792	8950	4392	10450	2501	20050	6272	5844	4845	19280	6118	5306	6627	7587	1564	1810	21970	32710	5323	5079	23250	4600	6733	40000	14580	14710	13960	5799	4663	5535	6917	14630	1594	4705	6895	4412	5382	4535	5597	7653	5011	8439	10930	13720	14390	22000	7186	7659	16600	8366	5047	5704	19860	14880	18850	4830	3602	21110	5375	15570	13080	10660	17200	5117	5371	2884	10730	9696	5159	2839	11110	6094	17530	7890	4079	961	28120	15760	5545	4749	4879	23000	24620	24380	21450	17130	6870	7681	5706	7782	4653	7929	6136	8546	4286	3861	6170	13610	27510	16510	4763	8046	23880	6615	7900	23970	5852	5123	6185	10260	6456	5230	11930
2021-03-03	2833	4903	8363	7930	9241	9578	11330	3769	23020	29720	17280	4158	17360	7889	7586	8038	13130	21890	97200	6691	17290	8966	5730	24670	4519	24830	6853	45320	10620	6396	27670	6817	14050	29740	5819	23930	6056	8974	6819	9588	16630	13590	5441	13730	6886	9795	8158	8184	15240	11810	12440	3639	8846	19980	20870	5933	4729	4142	7503	10970	3064	5181	13730	2514	36320	22760	2671	7632	30360	8198	7016	10100	4065	19440	2730	21410	11400	7700	25760	29980	2882	3954	4727	8039	5915	4416	16960	9177	8463	6494	5532	2951	7158	29290	12260	5102	6779	4863	5085	5097	7960	3019	4597	13280	7812	6222	3745	10080	5427	21800	7150	11640	4076	12620	4891	20420	7762	7393	20010	4177	8455	6150	6856	26470	6730	8036	4752	25460	5778	5487	23960	7381	7522	7184	6680	14600	8685	5707	7240	17760	11830	31460	17090	23700	9177	58140	34450	4811	21280	6305	6636	47690	19170	12490	3713	2681	50470	7710	25710	2473	3297	15790	2135	3149	6683	11950	19300	4269	5955	6825	22540	8037	34630	1928	5737	7810	6157	5331	8151	2954	9727	11840	4064	5693	17320	16690	7221	29630	8137	4772	21880	9107	9431	14380	8779	13860	13100	10560	32080	8988	5815	8962	4402	10460	2509	20100	6281	5854	4847	19350	6137	5310	6652	7593	1572	1816	22030	32790	5328	5096	23290	4611	6738	40090	14640	14740	13980	5809	4670	5546	6938	14650	1596	4728	6910	4420	5390	4542	5608	7667	5020	8458	10960	13760	14400	22010	7199	7666	16650	8387	5057	5716	19920	14920	18890	4849	3608	21160	5384	15590	13100	10680	17260	5137	5378	2889	10760	9719	5170	2844	11120	6102	17550	7897	4090	963	28130	15790	5550	4755	4888	23070	24670	24400	21470	17150	6885	7687	5711	7791	4672	7944	6155	8563	4302	3864	6178	13620	27560	16560	4769	8057	23920	6627	7913	24000	5864	5139	6206	10290	6469	5245	11940
2021-03-04	2836	4917	8380	7951	9277	9586	11350	3775	23050	29740	17340	4168	17380	7900	7612	8049	13160	21910	97440	6712	17320	8983	5745	24760	4535	24870	6863	45470	10630	6418	27700	6826	14070	29790	5827	23950	6066	8980	6842	9600	16680	13640	5449	13740	6907	9802	8168	8194	15270	11850	12450	3645	8854	20030	20920	5952	4738	4148	7522	10990	3074	5211	13750	2519	36430	22820	2675	7645	30390	8209	7040	10110	4078	19500	2737	21470	11430	7709	25820	30010	2890	3962	4732	8051	5925	4433	17000	9210	8479	6499	5551	2954	7166	29320	12270	5109	6806	4873	5100	5121	7968	3025	4608	13300	7840	6225	3759	10090	5441	21820	7157	11650	4085	12650	4906	20430	7772	7413	20030	4183	8477	6158	6868	26500	6753	8043	4767	25500	5799	5493	24000	7409	7538	7199	6685	14610	8695	5729	7258	17810	11840	31560	17110	23730	9197	58340	34570	4818	21290	6319	6652	47770	19220	12510	3717	2697	50580	7740	25730	2480	3306	15800	2140	3154	6697	12000	19340	4274	5970	6859	22570	8053	34650	1931	5749	7837	6167	5348	8171	2958	9750	11880	4082	5719	17360	16730	7233	29710	8160	4783	21930	9128	9444	14430	8793	13890	13150	10570	32110	9006	5837	8968	4411	10470	2516	20150	6290	5864	4854	19410	6156	5314	6674	7602	1579	1821	22100	32850	5335	5113	23330	4621	6744	40190	14690	14770	14010	5817	4677	5555	6960	14680	1597	4750	6932	4427	5398	4548	5618	7684	5036	8481	10980	13800	14410	22020	7212	7675	16690	8404	5069	5728	19990	14970	18930	4862	3620	21220	5393	15610	13110	10710	17310	5159	5384	2894	10800	9740	5183	2850	11120	6109	17580	7904	4101	964	28150	15820	5555	4760	4896	23140	24730	24420	21490	17190	6900	7694	5717	7798	4692	7954	6171	8583	4319	3867	6195	13640	27620	16620	4775	8067	23960	6643	7920	24050	5877	5148	6224	10310	6482	5265	11960
2021-03-05	2840	4931	8394	7973	9306	9594	11370	3780	23070	29770	17390	4173	17390	7911	7637	8064	13180	21920	97660	6732	17340	9005	5762	24840	4551	24910	6875	45620	10650	6434	27730	6836	14090	29840	5837	23970	6075	8986	6862	9613	16730	13680	5459	13750	6930	9809	8177	8206	15290	11890	12460	3652	8862	20090	20970	5970	4749	4154	7538	11010	3084	5241	13770	2523	36520	22890	2679	7657	30430	8219	7062	10120	4089	19560	2745	21540	11470	7719	25880	30060	2897	3970	4739	8061	5934	4453	17040	9240	8496	6507	5568	2958	7174	29340	12280	5114	6837	4883	5118	5149	7974	3031	4621	13320	7867	6226	3772	10100	5455	21830	7163	11670	4094	12660	4920	20450	7782	7431	20040	4190	8497	6167	6878	26520	6776	8049	4782	25540	5819	5497	24040	7433	7553	7214	6690	14620	8704	5751	7278	17850	11850	31660	17130	23750	9217	58510	34690	4829	21310	6338	6667	47840	19270	12520	3722	2708	50710	7775	25750	2486	3314	15820	2144	3160	6712	12020	19380	4279	5984	6887	22610	8067	34680	1933	5760	7864	6178	5366	8191	2966	9765	11910	4101	5745	17400	16760	7246	29790	8190	4795	21970	9144	9456	14480	8805	13930	13180	10590	32150	9031	5860	8979	4421	10480	2523	20190	6299	5874	4859	19490	6176	5318	6697	7607	1585	1825	22160	32950	5340	5127	23360	4631	6750	40290	14740	14810	14040	5823	4684	5562	6983	14710	1599	4773	6952	4435	5408	4554	5629	7705	5051	8500	11010	13850	14430	22040	7224	7683	16740	8421	5078	5740	20060	15010	18960	4877	3628	21260	5401	15630	13130	10740	17370	5177	5390	2899	10840	9762	5198	2855	11130	6117	17600	7909	4113	965	28160	15850	5561	4765	4904	23240	24780	24440	21520	17220	6914	7701	5724	7803	4710	7965	6188	8600	4335	3870	6208	13660	27670	16690	4781	8077	23990	6663	7928	24090	5889	5157	6243	10340	6496	5282	11980

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-02-26 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-02-26