COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-08-05 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-08-05

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-08-05

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date04-1504-2104-2904-2904-0904-1404-1704-1003-2803-2504-2303-2804-1803-3005-1404-0204-1803-3003-2305-0905-1404-1004-1804-0304-0204-2304-0405-0305-0304-2003-2603-2603-3004-1604-2603-2705-1103-1804-1503-2805-12 --04-0803-2804-0804-0804-2103-2904-1705-0904-1604-0303-3005-0504-2205-0605-0305-0804-0704-1704-1105-0304-1904-0204-2004-2204-1104-2003-2704-0404-2203-3103-2503-2304-1804-1604-1905-1304-1003-2704-2304-2504-1704-1504-1004-2104-2104-1504-1604-2204-1904-2303-2403-3003-2503-2504-1703-3004-1804-2805-1103-2706-0203-3004-1604-1904-1503-3005-1103-2804-0503-2903-2904-1504-2003-2603-2504-2003-2504-2304-1504-2504-1803-2607-0103-2304-1303-2604-1304-1903-2405-0305-0404-1704-2103-1503-2105-0304-0804-2204-0704-2303-3103-2503-2604-1406-1404-1303-2503-2504-2203-3104-0204-2703-2203-3003-3005-2403-2903-2305-0403-2703-2704-2304-2203-2704-2105-0503-2703-2503-2804-2903-2704-2004-1803-2604-2603-2504-1805-0404-2203-2904-0804-0803-2704-1004-2004-1404-2205-1204-0103-31 --04-2904-1404-1405-0404-0803-3004-2204-1004-0805-2403-1904-2103-3104-2004-1405-1404-1704-2904-1304-1404-0505-0704-2004-0803-2404-1804-2203-2804-2003-2703-2304-2004-2303-2005-2603-2304-1504-0104-1703-2504-2804-2903-2404-2203-2505-0904-1604-2603-2104-1504-1803-2703-2704-1403-2904-1504-1504-1403-3004-0104-2004-2404-1003-3003-3104-0604-0504-08 --05-1103-2104-0704-1505-1204-1204-2103-3104-1304-1703-2504-1104-1703-2503-2705-1304-2703-2504-2204-1703-2303-2403-3103-2404-1104-1304-1805-0205-1004-0704-1804-2004-2104-1804-1403-1704-1505-0304-1504-0803-3004-1404-1404-1704-1504-1604-1603-2904-2004-1404-21
Peak daily increment 5 8 8 18 12 22 13 7 19 47 27 27 16 24 24 8 17 29 96 7 27 21 6 34 8 20 8 55 11 9 51 7 13 25 13 38 21 6 9 8 24 6 19 7 15 25 6 19 14 16 12 12 40 31 9 13 7 12 23 8 7 17 4 68 22 5 11 49 9 15 18 5 19 9 35 15 11 25 34 4 7 15 8 5 11 40 12 18 16 10 6 8 26 14 8 8 6 6 11 13 4 12 36 7 14 7 9 14 25 13 15 6 33 6 21 10 12 29 6 14 2 9 28 42 13 7 24 9 11 23 28 6 20 16 15 16 18 23 43 16 28 21 39 32 75 75 6 37 8 4 55 23 24 4 5 50 17 24 3 4 23 11 10 13 20 18 12 8 6 33 17 43 4 12 5 10 6 18 15 19 20 10 5 16 37 7 25 13 5 32 21 33 18 12 22 22 29 14 9 17 4 15 11 22 7 8 4 30 9 6 7 14 2 3 26 30 21 7 35 8 8 69 21 18 20 15 4 7 6 17 3 25 7 15 18 5 17 10 8 8 22 17 15 44 8 12 31 18 7 7 31 17 27 14 9 48 9 28 9 28 7 7 7 11 14 10 6 21 7 11 6 9 25 22 10 15 9 28 31 28 32 28 9 12 12 8 6 8 11 2 14 4 11 14 19 53 37 10 7 45 8 15 28 12 10 10 6 16 10 30
Days from 100 to peak -2 21 23 19 7 16 20 -4 10 14 34 8 25 12 40 2 25 13 13 31 46 11 8 10 -4 29 4 43 30 16 15 -6 7 27 18 14 45 -12 14 -6 50 3 13 7 10 28 -7 26 37 23 7 3 44 31 34 23 37 8 17 12 13 28 -7 30 35 0 20 15 10 21 7 -21 6 6 25 25 39 24 15 1 16 16 17 1 11 26 17 21 10 18 -3 1 16 3 -3 12 -6 18 19 35 -21 56 6 17 20 4 1 40 14 9 2 -6 31 7 11 -2 18 13 17 9 -15 19 8 90 2 7 11 10 20 9 31 22 16 6 0 7 31 9 21 18 32 7 15 8 27 85 9 12 -2 6 15 12 30 -30 -8 11 44 9 -47 -11 13 -29 11 26 3 32 38 -3 -12 10 27 12 -8 19 -15 22 -10 16 17 20 6 4 3 4 17 11 24 29 28 12 7 29 16 21 37 14 14 26 8 18 32 1 3 9 10 2 21 28 22 10 10 7 -74 -10 20 8 14 13 7 4 -2 12 28 35 0 48 -12 14 1 24 14 22 7 14 -16 43 13 13 -4 19 27 3 18 13 5 24 11 5 -5 12 25 29 14 -3 9 6 19 10 50 -10 6 3 44 13 23 -5 15 18 1 9 13 9 7 36 19 -3 31 32 7 14 7 -4 17 14 16 14 36 12 24 -5 19 5 7 23 42 23 14 9 10 19 34 13 9 18 1 19 15 21
Days from peak/2 to peak 31 43 54 43 30 30 38 29 22 21 43 17 36 27 56 25 35 24 16 63 56 25 41 23 17 44 27 49 52 37 21 17 30 39 43 21 62 13 40 12 63 33 26 32 24 41 24 40 57 43 24 21 55 42 59 55 67 29 33 30 49 45 36 35 45 33 42 21 34 36 21 20 16 40 33 42 61 34 24 39 61 39 45 27 41 38 37 36 38 42 44 19 26 17 15 42 24 43 46 61 14 82 13 43 37 39 17 57 23 31 17 24 41 47 22 12 39 21 44 27 44 42 18 107 17 43 22 34 42 21 49 50 33 36 11 25 51 24 30 32 42 17 22 14 32 91 33 20 19 41 21 23 43 11 18 21 71 21 16 54 24 10 41 43 11 44 60 15 27 19 44 19 28 43 13 45 16 32 50 37 19 31 33 17 26 41 39 50 63 22 26 44 34 39 48 29 22 38 29 32 69 13 34 21 36 28 63 36 53 38 37 25 53 42 29 16 32 47 15 36 15 16 42 50 8 71 21 42 27 41 27 40 53 20 38 16 59 35 44 16 31 41 16 25 35 27 31 26 35 24 24 41 40 32 18 16 24 29 31 64 10 28 47 60 30 47 24 30 41 17 35 49 21 21 62 45 17 40 41 16 22 15 13 28 37 41 50 62 30 52 35 41 43 32 18 29 55 44 37 16 39 41 44 34 32 36 28 35 37 36
Last total 190 371 453 333 579 1357 801 271 773 1704 2013 601 838 953 603 357 1378 1110 5400 521 1511 1058 356 2061 497 841 391 5321 512 442 1814 289 820 1350 416 1548 545 296 436 517 1397 959 344 731 331 717 747 330 1288 856 762 437 713 2274 2060 515 285 298 689 733 355 342 939 217 3368 1468 252 462 1898 537 614 728 286 1342 264 2040 622 697 1343 1647 195 227 504 421 253 417 1658 632 891 453 445 201 436 1234 493 340 422 250 302 499 775 166 471 1302 386 546 232 601 355 1006 564 713 317 801 400 811 394 734 1334 274 622 138 371 1017 892 493 444 1166 567 524 1151 913 409 715 423 594 594 616 857 1577 760 2555 1033 1444 898 3941 5141 379 1256 412 281 2621 1606 669 141 231 3460 357 1102 195 136 972 211 330 611 1003 894 333 465 368 1561 798 1351 122 608 218 365 225 739 223 919 932 349 336 1360 1595 305 1245 905 503 2302 915 653 1488 679 517 1281 808 1187 711 395 787 208 559 272 1944 300 303 189 2071 392 340 399 603 100 136 1529 1924 562 395 1585 323 379 4343 1446 689 948 449 216 377 419 771 98 715 427 615 331 282 619 538 340 400 958 965 712 1501 343 546 1220 589 381 327 1813 992 1519 532 271 1799 442 1041 552 973 1687 353 333 215 635 658 500 259 916 369 587 365 284 897 1479 493 288 487 1908 1569 1066 1245 1354 445 588 472 475 366 413 498 74 767 160 540 497 840 2205 1317 484 425 2080 371 611 1495 415 415 440 451 640 414 927
Last daily increment 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 18 0 10 0 0 6 0 1 0 41 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 4 8 0 2 0 0 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 1 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 6 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 4 1 2 0 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 0 0 0 3 2 1 2 2 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 2 0 4 0 0 2 16 2 2 3 13 29 0 3 0 3 10 2 0 0 0 26 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 14 3 0 0 2 3 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 8 0 0 4 0 1 34 1 7 4 0 2 8 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 7 0 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 6 3 0 0 3 0 0 6 0 6 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 13 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 9 8 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 2 0 2 6 0 0 0 14 1 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 3 2 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Last week 0 9 1 3 2 5 8 4 10 17 17 0 4 0 6 5 20 2 118 5 91 9 2 62 1 7 0 218 3 1 6 1 5 4 4 8 4 3 0 23 48 68 0 7 3 2 15 1 8 16 10 0 2 20 15 2 2 2 8 1 3 10 8 3 9 34 0 1 6 6 1 4 3 8 1 9 3 8 2 31 0 2 0 1 0 9 2 8 2 2 2 6 1 7 4 0 7 1 0 1 12 0 5 9 3 5 0 5 12 11 4 9 11 12 4 9 4 2 9 2 5 2 2 16 6 9 11 12 10 3 35 8 20 3 0 9 5 9 3 1 7 91 14 27 8 78 140 0 8 4 10 51 24 4 1 0 131 2 0 4 3 10 1 1 1 30 14 1 2 25 9 2 12 0 4 2 1 1 3 0 5 4 0 3 59 3 0 20 20 11 141 3 59 15 1 4 42 5 15 0 1 8 4 6 1 57 0 1 1 27 14 5 4 2 0 1 53 43 0 0 11 2 2 33 2 17 13 1 5 1 6 8 0 2 10 8 1 3 4 14 0 4 2 2 1 7 2 5 15 4 2 2 51 8 23 0 3 14 3 6 3 63 46 6 1 0 3 5 1 1 6 2 0 2 1 16 33 3 2 4 45 18 11 27 11 0 5 1 1 16 7 4 1 10 3 7 3 13 22 12 3 5 6 7 3 31 1 2 7 2 2 0 3
Days since peak 112 106 98 98 118 113 110 117 130 133 104 130 109 128 83 125 109 128 135 88 83 117 109 124 125 104 123 94 94 107 132 132 128 111 101 131 86 140 112 130 85 119 130 119 119 106 129 110 88 111 124 128 92 105 91 94 89 120 110 116 94 108 125 107 105 116 107 131 123 105 127 133 135 109 111 108 84 117 131 104 102 110 112 117 106 106 112 111 105 108 104 134 128 133 133 110 128 109 99 86 131 64 128 111 108 112 128 86 130 122 129 129 112 107 132 133 107 133 104 112 102 109 132 35 135 114 132 114 108 134 94 93 110 106 143 137 94 119 105 120 104 127 133 132 113 52 114 133 133 105 127 125 100 136 128 128 73 129 135 93 131 131 104 105 131 106 92 131 133 130 98 131 107 109 132 101 133 109 93 105 129 119 119 131 117 107 113 105 85 126 127 98 113 113 93 119 128 105 117 119 73 139 106 127 107 113 83 110 98 114 113 122 90 107 119 134 109 105 130 107 131 135 107 104 138 71 135 112 126 110 133 99 98 134 105 133 88 111 101 137 112 109 131 131 113 129 112 112 113 128 126 107 103 117 128 127 121 122 119 86 137 120 112 85 115 106 127 114 110 133 116 110 133 131 84 100 133 105 110 135 134 127 134 116 114 109 95 87 120 109 107 106 109 113 141 112 94 112 119 128 113 113 110 112 111 111 129 107 113 106

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-06 to 2020-08-12

DateAllerdaleAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBassetlawBedfordBirminghamBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBrentBromleyBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCamdenCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChorleyCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCroydonDacorumDerbyDoncasterDoverEalingEast NorthamptonshireEast StaffordshireEdenEnfieldErewashFolkestone and HytheGatesheadGreat YarmouthGreenwichHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHaringeyHarrowHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIslingtonKetteringKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLincolnLiverpoolLutonManchesterMertonMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNorthamptonNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamPendlePeterboroughPrestonRedbridgeReigate and BansteadRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRotherhamRugbySalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldSloughSolihullSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth RibbleSouthwarkSt. HelensStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentSunderlandSuttonSwindonTamesideTamworthThanetTower HamletsTraffordWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest LancashireWest OxfordshireWestminsterWiganWiltshireWirralWokingWolverhamptonWychavon
2020-08-05 371 801 773 1704 2013 603 1378 5400 1511 1058 2061 841 5321 1814 1548 517 1397 959 731 747 1288 856 762 2274 2060 689 342 939 3368 1468 1898 537 1342 2040 697 1647 417 632 201 1234 422 775 1302 355 1006 713 317 801 811 1334 1017 892 493 444 1166 567 1151 913 409 594 616 760 2555 1033 1444 898 3941 5141 1256 281 2621 1606 3460 972 1003 894 368 1561 1351 1360 1245 905 503 2302 653 1488 1281 1187 787 559 1944 2071 392 1529 1924 1585 4343 689 948 419 771 427 615 538 1501 1220 1813 992 1519 1799 1041 973 1687 353 916 897 1479 1908 1569 1066 1245 1354 366 413 767 540 840 2205 1317 2080 371 1495 440
2020-08-06 372 801 776 1712 2016 605 1385 5421 1540 1059 2061 842 5359 1816 1549 520 1397 971 732 750 1290 859 763 2275 2063 690 343 941 3370 1474 1899 538 1344 2042 698 1647 418 633 202 1236 423 775 1303 355 1008 715 319 802 813 1336 1020 893 495 446 1168 568 1153 914 412 596 617 761 2570 1033 1447 899 3952 5167 1258 282 2628 1609 3483 973 1012 894 373 1561 1354 1369 1248 907 505 2325 662 1493 1295 1190 788 560 1954 2076 393 1542 1934 1587 4353 691 950 420 772 428 616 540 1503 1222 1821 993 1524 1800 1042 996 1694 353 918 900 1493 1915 1572 1068 1245 1354 369 415 769 541 842 2208 1320 2082 372 1500 441
2020-08-07 373 801 779 1715 2020 606 1391 5441 1555 1060 2069 843 5396 1819 1550 523 1397 984 734 752 1292 861 765 2277 2065 691 345 943 3371 1479 1901 540 1346 2043 699 1647 420 634 204 1237 423 775 1304 356 1010 718 320 806 815 1338 1022 894 496 447 1170 570 1155 915 416 597 618 761 2584 1033 1451 899 3962 5193 1260 283 2635 1612 3505 974 1020 894 377 1562 1356 1378 1250 909 506 2347 672 1497 1307 1192 789 561 1964 2080 394 1555 1943 1589 4364 693 952 420 773 429 617 542 1505 1224 1828 994 1528 1802 1043 1019 1700 354 919 903 1498 1922 1575 1069 1250 1354 372 417 771 542 844 2211 1322 2083 372 1505 442
2020-08-08 374 802 782 1718 2023 608 1393 5462 1572 1061 2078 844 5433 1821 1551 526 1397 997 735 755 1294 864 766 2279 2068 693 346 944 3373 1485 1902 541 1347 2044 700 1652 421 635 205 1239 424 775 1305 356 1012 720 322 809 817 1339 1025 895 498 449 1172 571 1158 915 419 599 619 762 2599 1034 1454 900 3972 5219 1262 284 2642 1615 3527 975 1028 894 381 1563 1358 1386 1253 911 508 2370 682 1502 1320 1195 790 562 1974 2085 395 1568 1953 1591 4375 695 954 421 774 430 618 544 1507 1226 1835 995 1533 1803 1045 1044 1707 354 921 906 1505 1929 1578 1070 1252 1354 374 420 773 542 846 2214 1325 2085 373 1509 443
2020-08-09 375 802 785 1723 2026 610 1394 5482 1584 1062 2084 845 5468 1824 1552 528 1397 1011 736 758 1295 866 767 2280 2071 694 347 946 3374 1490 1904 542 1349 2044 701 1656 423 637 207 1241 424 776 1306 356 1014 722 324 809 819 1341 1028 896 499 450 1174 572 1160 916 422 600 620 763 2613 1035 1457 901 3982 5245 1264 285 2649 1618 3549 977 1036 894 385 1563 1361 1394 1256 913 510 2391 700 1506 1331 1197 790 563 1984 2089 396 1580 1963 1592 4385 697 955 422 775 431 619 546 1509 1227 1842 996 1538 1804 1046 1069 1713 354 923 909 1510 1936 1580 1072 1254 1354 377 422 775 543 848 2216 1327 2086 374 1514 444
2020-08-10 376 802 787 1726 2030 612 1402 5501 1600 1064 2097 846 5504 1827 1553 531 1397 1025 736 761 1297 869 769 2288 2073 695 348 948 3375 1495 1905 544 1351 2044 703 1661 424 638 208 1243 425 778 1306 357 1016 724 325 811 821 1343 1030 898 501 452 1176 573 1162 917 426 602 621 763 2627 1039 1460 901 3991 5272 1266 286 2655 1621 3571 978 1043 894 389 1565 1363 1403 1258 914 511 2413 714 1511 1343 1199 791 564 1994 2094 397 1592 1973 1594 4396 698 957 422 776 432 620 548 1511 1229 1849 997 1542 1805 1047 1093 1719 355 924 912 1522 1942 1583 1073 1261 1354 379 424 777 544 850 2219 1330 2088 374 1518 445
2020-08-11 377 802 790 1728 2033 613 1405 5521 1616 1065 2108 847 5540 1829 1554 534 1397 1039 738 763 1299 871 770 2289 2076 696 349 949 3377 1501 1907 545 1352 2045 704 1663 426 639 210 1244 425 780 1307 357 1018 726 327 811 823 1345 1033 899 502 453 1178 575 1164 918 429 603 622 764 2641 1041 1464 902 4001 5298 1268 287 2662 1624 3593 979 1051 894 393 1565 1365 1411 1261 916 513 2435 734 1515 1354 1202 792 565 2004 2098 398 1604 1983 1596 4406 700 959 423 777 433 621 550 1513 1231 1856 998 1547 1806 1048 1118 1725 355 926 915 1527 1949 1586 1075 1265 1354 382 426 779 545 852 2222 1332 2089 375 1523 446
2020-08-12 379 803 793 1730 2036 615 1407 5541 1630 1066 2115 848 5576 1832 1555 537 1397 1053 739 766 1301 874 772 2292 2078 697 350 951 3378 1506 1908 546 1354 2048 705 1670 428 640 211 1246 426 781 1308 357 1020 728 329 813 825 1346 1035 900 503 455 1179 576 1167 919 432 605 624 765 2655 1043 1467 902 4011 5324 1270 288 2668 1627 3615 980 1059 894 398 1568 1368 1419 1263 918 515 2457 747 1520 1366 1204 792 566 2013 2103 399 1616 1993 1598 4417 702 961 424 778 434 622 551 1515 1232 1863 999 1552 1807 1050 1143 1731 355 928 918 1534 1956 1589 1076 1267 1354 384 428 781 545 854 2225 1335 2091 376 1527 447

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-06 to 2020-08-12

DateAllerdaleAylesbury ValeBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBassetlawBedfordBirminghamBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBoltonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBradfordBrentBromleyBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCamdenCarlisleCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChorleyCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCounty DurhamCoventryCroydonDacorumDerbyDoncasterDoverEalingEast NorthamptonshireEast StaffordshireEdenEnfieldErewashFolkestone and HytheGatesheadGreat YarmouthGreenwichHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHaringeyHarrowHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIslingtonKetteringKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewishamLincolnLiverpoolLutonManchesterMertonMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewhamNorthamptonNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamPendlePeterboroughPrestonRedbridgeReigate and BansteadRichmond upon ThamesRochdaleRotherhamRugbySalfordSandwellSeftonSheffieldSloughSolihullSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth RibbleSouthwarkSt. HelensStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentSunderlandSuttonSwindonTamesideTamworthThanetTower HamletsTraffordWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest LancashireWest OxfordshireWestminsterWiganWiltshireWirralWokingWolverhamptonWychavon
2020-08-05 371 801 773 1704 2013 603 1378 5400 1511 1058 2061 841 5321 1814 1548 517 1397 959 731 747 1288 856 762 2274 2060 689 342 939 3368 1468 1898 537 1342 2040 697 1647 417 632 201 1234 422 775 1302 355 1006 713 317 801 811 1334 1017 892 493 444 1166 567 1151 913 409 594 616 760 2555 1033 1444 898 3941 5141 1256 281 2621 1606 3460 972 1003 894 368 1561 1351 1360 1245 905 503 2302 653 1488 1281 1187 787 559 1944 2071 392 1529 1924 1585 4343 689 948 419 771 427 615 538 1501 1220 1813 992 1519 1799 1041 973 1687 353 916 897 1479 1908 1569 1066 1245 1354 366 413 767 540 840 2205 1317 2080 371 1495 440
2020-08-06 372 801 775 1709 2016 604 1381 5414 1527 1059 2065 841 5347 1815 1548 520 1401 972 731 749 1289 858 762 2276 2062 689 342 940 3369 1473 1899 538 1344 2040 697 1647 419 633 202 1235 422 776 1302 355 1007 714 318 803 812 1335 1020 893 494 445 1167 568 1154 914 411 595 617 760 2567 1034 1448 898 3952 5168 1258 281 2627 1609 3484 973 1004 895 371 1561 1352 1365 1247 907 504 2314 659 1493 1285 1189 788 560 1953 2073 393 1539 1932 1586 4351 690 948 419 771 427 616 539 1502 1221 1819 993 1520 1799 1042 982 1693 353 917 899 1484 1909 1572 1066 1246 1355 367 413 769 540 842 2208 1319 2082 371 1498 441
2020-08-07 373 802 777 1711 2019 606 1386 5433 1541 1060 2072 842 5384 1818 1549 523 1405 987 732 751 1291 861 763 2278 2065 691 343 941 3371 1480 1901 539 1345 2041 698 1648 420 634 203 1237 422 777 1303 356 1009 715 319 805 814 1336 1022 894 494 447 1168 570 1158 915 414 597 617 760 2583 1035 1451 898 3962 5190 1260 282 2635 1613 3509 974 1005 896 375 1562 1354 1372 1250 910 505 2335 664 1496 1288 1191 788 561 1962 2076 393 1549 1940 1587 4362 690 949 420 772 429 617 540 1503 1222 1826 994 1521 1800 1043 994 1698 353 918 902 1489 1913 1575 1067 1250 1355 369 414 771 541 844 2211 1322 2083 372 1503 441
2020-08-08 373 804 779 1714 2022 607 1389 5452 1558 1061 2080 842 5420 1820 1550 526 1410 1003 733 753 1292 864 764 2280 2068 692 344 943 3372 1486 1902 540 1347 2042 699 1651 421 635 204 1239 423 779 1304 357 1011 716 320 808 816 1337 1024 897 495 449 1170 571 1163 916 417 598 618 761 2595 1037 1454 898 3974 5215 1262 282 2642 1617 3534 975 1007 898 377 1563 1356 1380 1252 913 506 2357 673 1499 1293 1194 789 562 1971 2079 394 1557 1947 1588 4373 691 951 421 773 430 618 542 1505 1224 1833 995 1523 1801 1044 1005 1704 353 919 904 1494 1918 1578 1067 1252 1356 371 415 772 541 846 2214 1325 2085 372 1506 442
2020-08-09 374 804 782 1717 2026 609 1392 5471 1571 1063 2088 842 5457 1823 1551 530 1416 1022 733 755 1294 866 765 2282 2070 692 345 944 3373 1492 1903 541 1349 2042 699 1654 422 636 206 1241 423 781 1305 357 1013 716 321 809 817 1338 1025 898 496 450 1171 573 1167 917 420 600 619 761 2606 1038 1459 898 3982 5232 1263 283 2649 1621 3558 977 1009 899 380 1563 1358 1389 1255 915 507 2380 688 1503 1298 1196 790 562 1978 2082 395 1566 1954 1590 4383 692 952 421 774 430 619 543 1506 1225 1841 996 1524 1801 1045 1017 1710 353 920 906 1498 1923 1581 1068 1255 1357 372 415 773 542 848 2215 1327 2086 372 1509 442
2020-08-10 375 805 784 1720 2029 611 1398 5491 1588 1064 2098 843 5494 1825 1552 532 1421 1041 734 758 1295 868 766 2287 2073 693 346 947 3375 1499 1905 543 1350 2042 700 1659 424 637 207 1243 424 782 1306 358 1015 717 322 811 819 1340 1028 900 496 452 1173 574 1171 918 423 601 620 761 2622 1040 1464 898 3992 5259 1265 284 2658 1625 3586 978 1012 900 385 1564 1360 1398 1258 918 508 2403 698 1508 1303 1199 790 563 1988 2087 396 1575 1962 1591 4394 693 954 422 775 431 620 544 1508 1226 1848 997 1526 1802 1046 1029 1717 354 922 907 1506 1929 1584 1069 1260 1358 374 416 776 543 850 2217 1330 2087 373 1512 443
2020-08-11 376 806 787 1723 2032 613 1402 5510 1606 1065 2107 844 5532 1829 1553 535 1427 1060 735 760 1297 871 767 2289 2075 694 347 948 3376 1505 1907 544 1352 2043 701 1661 425 638 208 1245 424 785 1307 359 1017 718 323 812 821 1341 1031 901 497 454 1175 576 1176 919 426 603 621 762 2636 1041 1469 899 4003 5282 1267 285 2665 1629 3613 979 1015 902 388 1565 1363 1406 1262 920 509 2427 708 1514 1308 1201 791 564 1997 2091 397 1584 1971 1593 4405 694 956 423 776 432 621 545 1510 1228 1855 998 1528 1803 1048 1041 1724 354 924 909 1514 1935 1587 1070 1262 1359 376 416 778 543 852 2219 1332 2088 373 1515 444
2020-08-12 377 807 792 1727 2035 614 1406 5529 1626 1066 2114 845 5569 1832 1554 538 1433 1079 735 763 1298 875 767 2291 2078 695 348 950 3378 1511 1908 545 1354 2045 702 1664 427 639 210 1247 425 787 1307 360 1018 719 325 814 823 1342 1033 904 498 456 1177 577 1180 920 429 604 623 762 2649 1043 1472 899 4019 5311 1269 285 2674 1632 3641 980 1017 903 390 1566 1365 1415 1264 923 510 2450 719 1519 1314 1204 792 565 2007 2096 398 1595 1980 1595 4416 696 958 424 777 434 622 546 1512 1229 1863 999 1529 1805 1049 1053 1731 354 925 912 1524 1941 1590 1071 1265 1360 378 417 781 544 855 2221 1335 2091 374 1519 444

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

    The district map is an updated version of: Districts of England (2019)

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.