COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-07-28

	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	2021-06-21	12-27	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-06-22	2021-07-14	--	07-21	2021-03-25	2021-07-07	2021-07-11	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-14	2021-07-11	2021-07-04	2021-07-11	2021-07-10	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-14	--	2021-07-11	12-29	2021-07-08	12-27	2021-07-07	12-07	2021-07-07	2021-05-10	2021-07-10	2021-01-01	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	12-27	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-17	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-12	2021-07-05	12-30	2021-07-06	2021-06-27	2021-07-07	2021-06-20	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-06-19	2021-06-29	2021-07-07	2021-07-09	2021-07-07	--	2021-07-07	10-28	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	--	2021-07-17	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-06-22	2021-06-20	2021-07-06	--	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-02	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-11	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-01-02	2021-07-08	12-21	2021-07-07	2021-07-14	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	12-22	2021-06-21	2021-07-11	07-21	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-06-21	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-13	2021-07-06	2021-06-22	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-13	2021-07-08	2021-07-04	2021-07-05	--	2021-06-23	2021-07-08	2021-07-14	2021-07-11	2021-06-20	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-01	2021-07-06	10-04	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-09	2021-06-22	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-09	2021-07-09	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-06-27	2021-07-11	2021-07-14	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-06-21	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-06-20	12-21	2021-07-17	12-21	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-10	2021-07-13	2021-07-07	2021-07-10	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	12-27	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-01-03	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	12-21	12-26	2021-07-08	2021-07-10	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-14	2021-07-14	2021-06-29	2021-07-10	12-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-15	2021-07-07	12-21	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-06-20	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	12-06	2021-07-04	2021-03-18	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-06-29	2021-07-07	2021-07-14	2021-07-08	12-27	07-21	2021-07-11	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-08	--	10-04	2021-07-10	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-04	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-14	2021-07-04	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-06-29	2021-06-22	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-22	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-01-01	2021-07-06	2021-07-17	2021-07-07	2021-07-15	2021-07-06	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	10-04	2021-07-05	12-27	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-06-28	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	12-23	2021-07-07	2021-06-27	2021-07-08	2021-07-11	2021-07-07	07-21	2021-07-07	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	12-29	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	12-28	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-12	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	10-04	2021-07-14	2021-07-06	2021-07-06	2021-07-11	2021-07-07	2021-07-12	2021-06-27	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-20	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-10	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-22	2021-07-08	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	12-06	2021-07-17	2021-07-07	2021-06-28	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-09	2021-07-07	2021-07-05	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-08	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-06-21	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-12	10-04	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-06-23	2021-07-06	2021-07-14	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-07	2021-07-11	2021-07-07	2021-06-29	2021-07-07	2021-07-10	2021-07-10	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-06-29	2021-07-07	2021-07-07	2021-07-06	2021-07-08	2021-07-05
Peak daily increment	138	102	47	109	98	84	108		115	106	120	92	60	101	55	92	260	266	47	134	149	136	202	104		177	1249	69	157	154	95	59	208	41	484	103	453	99	107	180	65	51	226	599	65	250	90	73	93	122	159	32	152	61	155	70	62	93	108	24	96		218	41	115	163		73	251	238	79	70	64	114	452	20	136		62	110	47	313	38	590	348	49	107	227	118	132	89	53	88	246	45	170	380	161	42	255	119	186	191	296	49	89	78	57	117	88	112	66	67	289	71	88	57	87	21	79	151	99	55	98		81	63	42	46	240	59	65	53	79	264	120	631	94	53	63	108	161	68	23	227	76	80	155	57	151	61	109	145	66	139	44	65	154	77	79	69	86	192	77	83	139	96	71	74	60	18	62	188	82	69	70	258	91	265	311	296	105	674	284	49	205	81	57	102	727	107	116	40	44	422	80	174	38	71	105	120	42	40	94	186	77	261	97	185	47	62	28	23	91	114	375	98	155	35	212	186	74	88	225	77		389	95	37	191	222	71	89	139	302	75	258	138	30	241	3	135	23	55	113	94	317	203	41	106	82	122	279	58	104	150	56	52	132	67	202	72	68	48	204	77	47	111	65	18	21	249	252	87	83	54	194	65	97	484	24	171	62	269	43	42	47	69	69	319	44	38	64	64	460	61	66	77	89	102	78	293	194	146	243	68	119	136	84	74	53	43	231	321	234	74	67	410	57	139	97	49	148	208	83	57	74	133	112	87	38	38	76	103	101	124	101	36	220	179	59	60	27	76	339	183	155	303	194	106	69	65	80	26	101	83	19	79	92	45	103	62	70	134	361	313	59	79	238	56	96	177	93	61	62	71	117	115	69	133
Days since peak	37	213	20	22	22	36	14		372	125	21	17	21	21	22	14	17	24	17	18	21	22	22	14		17	211	20	213	21	233	21	79	18	208	21	21	21	213	14	21	22	21	21	11	22	21	16	23	210	22	31	21	38	20	21	39	29	21	19	21		21	273	21	22		11	22	20	21	14	21	22	36	38	22		22	22	14	21	21	26	21	21	21	17	21	23	20	22	22	207	20	219	21	14	14	21	218	37	17	372	20	21	37	22	21	21	45	22	36	22	22	14	21	21	21	22	15	20	24	23		35	20	14	17	38	14	21	21	22	27	22	297	21	20	14	21	21	19	36	21	20	20	21	19	19	22	21	14	21	24	31	17	14	20	21	24	37	21	21	22	14	21	38	219	11	219	21	20	18	15	21	18	20	21	213	22	20	22	206	23	21	21	21	219	214	20	18	14	21	22	14	14	29	18	232	20	22	13	21	219	14	21	38	21	21	234	24	132	20	21	29	21	14	20	213	372	17	21	23	20		297	18	14	21	24	23	21	14	24	14	21	20	22	22	29	36	21	21	36	14	21	208	22	11	21	13	22	14	21	297	23	213	21	22	23	21	30	20	20	22	21	22	21	21	22	20	22	22	217	21	31	20	17	21	372	21	14	21	20	211	22	22	212	22	21	16	20	21	297	14	22	22	17	21	16	31	21	21	21	20	21	21	22	21	21	38	21	22	23	21	18	23	21	21	21	14	21	21	36	20	20	21	22	21	21	14	21	14	21	21	234	11	21	30	21	21	19	21	23	21	21	21	21	20	21	21	21	37	21	21	16	297	21	22	35	22	14	21	22	21	17	21	29	21	18	18	22	20	29	21	21	22	20	23
Last total	11547	8695	4118	7360	10938	5792	10795	8057	2472	18117	11141	12169	11284	14671	4979	26446	37291	27780	5705	20714	11399	11106	12763	17848	30523	26679	129825	9180	25438	14555	6539	7354	38067	6264	33835	9530	64519	13079	7758	34328	8536	14004	21870	46073	7443	30325	8469	10907	9876	13601	23768	14564	20318	8139	19210	8703	12402	29678	10935	11715	10008	9877	22102	2156	16488	16376	6030	11273	29317	29601	8082	6859	5989	11871	33014	3497	15042	395	5628	5091	6945	23487	3762	57482	32195	4124	10063	37829	11593	11276	12483	5555	6071	24175	4178	16615	33467	16077	8985	33106	5455	12721	37806	8962	3986	6338	7730	6362	11411	8619	5969	6315	7376	25575	11810	10847	7829	8285	3749	9644	33892	15050	7045	9894	7800	9540	6772	6529	7174	18990	11819	9411	4321	7203	21823	11390	59612	9447	5028	12116	7268	27542	9401	4285	27838	14693	6245	17756	6844	25783	9666	11145	24916	5882	12533	7692	8785	30917	8959	10225	7277	6363	32293	8082	7649	29594	10189	11532	4545	9038	2774	7975	20411	12148	7501	9008	25756	15216	45115	21669	32972	13318	89432	44289	6363	27652	8661	8993	9634	63080	24898	15801	4731	3858	74781	10250	30348	3741	4915	7080	19911	3395	4222	9532	14799	9438	18604	6475	25109	5821	4869	2386	12428	8478	10161	36721	11153	40733	12522	15573	8666	3492	8096	15588	8610	7042	30031	12416	3778	14540	20701	6217	8459	21446	26686	9408	39887	11764	5981	32060	146	13326	4129	12556	7969	18366	16121	18484	5289	18589	14190	37341	15235	7658	12134	15247	23094	6650	14586	3835	29538	8029	9308	5940	27152	8850	6848	10308	9197	2223	2526	33855	41415	7758	4380	6835	31566	7188	9070	57720	363	19264	17650	21328	7411	6334	6098	7869	9145	23080	2925	6362	9280	6403	25096	6982	6409	8049	11726	7491	10471	18809	20488	18054	29864	9147	10928	21868	10832	7514	7425	4904	29823	23094	26163	7201	5608	33761	6702	19659	15411	19223	15230	25680	7918	6902	5087	14598	12121	7675	4613	12465	8314	20319	10332	7263	7238	1780	35873	24353	7378	6547	8399	7073	37207	31031	29910	30820	23803	10733	9915	7496	9803	6194	10441	8535	1661	6580	11801	6091	11934	5814	8131	18985	41915	24676	6730	10744	32705	8375	11011	29630	8485	6967	13587	8148	13938	9993	7196	17218
Last daily increment	61	23	11	30	47	18	115	90	13	137	41	65	41	57	29	60	142	121	20	59	63	76	86	79	331	98	496	59	33	95	6	56	74	15	342	51	226	45	57	144	22	24	159	372	65	123	48	36	64	50	69	21	119	52	79	36	65	66	23	8	24	83	132	7	87	57	67	50	113	120	42	49	33	37	104	17	75	0	21	25	42	242	16	208	150	20	40	136	40	64	56	33	15	91	29	111	156	200	35	170	31	34	127	15	30	70	19	37	88	55	29	34	12	155	54	96	25	51	10	43	112	45	25	54	117	30	60	20	60	99	13	29	25	31	108	59	168	56	33	42	38	117	39	4	127	48	32	96	50	90	46	57	101	33	39	35	52	97	46	44	20	33	94	54	27	76	53	24	36	45	1	23	107	47	70	41	211	62	208	85	170	55	459	194	29	110	40	147	88	216	92	58	15	10	273	79	132	17	30	10	72	27	43	59	112	90	99	25	125	32	9	8	14	69	70	172	27	127	34	164	38	32	42	100	58	87	102	81	33	62	95	30	46	106	117	107	195	46	22	86	0	58	14	23	20	102	149	98	16	52	58	107	90	38	46	36	24	15	72	29	92	32	18	27	158	42	22	66	35	14	12	161	161	26	11	42	120	38	52	402	2	82	33	130	65	27	21	54	41	137	36	26	49	27	99	72	23	48	38	36	38	68	180	65	129	44	52	88	39	29	29	26	119	143	76	43	46	135	28	72	46	22	105	105	26	22	57	61	33	38	45	45	40	69	39	91	15	17	138	84	59	47	17	56	167	145	123	138	86	44	21	31	56	38	43	53	13	23	59	54	51	38	46	81	109	170	50	53	165	39	56	121	31	28	4	47	49	65	35	87
Last week	281	181	136	200	236	105	578	503	87	630	344	362	207	310	155	415	906	729	161	341	314	366	524	443	1969	584	3027	277	244	603	64	234	562	150	1600	254	1503	278	228	829	166	185	805	1628	258	735	261	243	275	251	449	157	675	298	534	208	311	378	168	131	196	537	701	45	432	391	291	258	823	763	240	263	166	273	659	73	460	35	245	193	219	1210	130	1487	920	120	229	841	296	361	281	160	255	509	158	682	1073	806	193	804	176	206	862	136	139	357	103	182	408	299	158	207	92	910	247	379	155	350	59	279	607	350	175	254	545	183	237	124	305	504	225	172	127	239	615	381	966	355	167	257	251	680	245	99	669	295	214	523	192	634	246	344	618	190	291	183	251	606	256	260	188	233	653	226	204	608	336	174	143	263	44	220	622	312	305	166	1046	340	1055	473	855	296	2453	980	168	710	205	512	528	1429	492	366	118	83	1557	411	757	90	187	62	450	162	162	299	681	462	709	128	637	156	83	84	130	336	416	947	244	759	195	838	199	222	261	610	242	321	594	402	170	496	676	173	246	559	794	432	1049	334	117	687	6	388	84	179	132	468	1003	564	164	378	320	657	569	200	288	213	223	99	458	125	614	194	143	142	832	249	143	419	161	89	84	901	902	267	117	207	679	194	263	2076	17	459	275	627	301	138	147	285	210	883	165	117	258	162	542	296	210	205	247	262	267	510	872	413	806	232	297	536	238	204	190	129	710	827	587	223	240	885	120	409	265	227	569	610	166	166	306	368	281	247	183	204	252	433	322	426	96	177	768	571	233	209	105	232	1094	728	696	891	585	257	214	187	269	189	274	281	76	165	329	223	271	213	245	562	859	1094	254	293	839	149	348	639	222	237	199	273	358	334	228	446
Previous peak date	07-21	07-21	12-27	12-26	12-27	07-21	12-21	12-26	--	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-07	12-21	12-23	12-28	12-23	10-13	12-27	12-23	2021-01-02	2021-01-11	11-02	12-21	10-07	12-22	11-02	12-27	10-13	10-13	--	2021-01-07	10-15	11-13	11-02	12-21	10-24	12-22	--	12-27	12-14	12-06	12-28	11-02	12-25	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-30	09-27	10-27	12-07	10-28	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-08	12-06	12-27	12-08	12-21	12-22	12-21	--	11-02	12-22	12-28	12-25	12-22	12-21	2021-01-03	12-21	12-21	12-30	07-21	07-21	12-26	--	12-29	12-26	12-27	12-21	12-24	11-02	12-27	12-28	12-27	12-27	12-21	12-25	12-21	12-21	12-28	10-27	2021-02-25	10-01	10-14	12-27	12-07	12-26	07-21	07-21	12-27	--	12-24	12-29	07-21	12-24	12-21	11-09	07-21	12-26	07-21	10-31	12-27	12-30	12-28	12-21	12-26	12-22	12-25	12-21	12-22	2021-01-06	--	07-21	12-23	12-27	12-22	07-21	12-25	12-25	12-25	10-17	10-29	12-26	07-21	12-21	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-27	12-21	2021-01-05	12-22	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-28	12-27	12-28	12-21	12-23	12-13	12-27	12-13	12-29	12-22	12-29	07-21	12-28	12-30	12-22	12-26	12-21	2021-01-01	07-21	12-28	06-11	12-27	12-22	12-28	12-28	12-25	11-01	12-22	10-27	09-29	12-29	2021-01-06	11-02	11-02	12-21	12-27	12-27	11-02	10-12	09-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-31	11-02	2021-01-02	12-22	--	2021-01-07	--	12-21	12-21	12-21	12-22	10-12	12-21	12-31	07-21	12-22	12-27	--	07-21	12-07	12-28	12-29	11-02	11-03	12-27	12-06	09-24	--	12-08	10-14	10-26	12-26	12-27	07-21	11-01	12-21	12-30	11-04	12-21	11-03	12-27	12-21	2021-01-01	11-02	12-29	11-02	10-22	--	12-27	12-28	12-26	07-21	2021-01-06	11-02	11-02	12-06	11-02	12-29	12-21	12-31	2021-01-05	12-22	07-21	12-06	10-11	12-21	12-27	10-19	12-13	10-11	12-13	10-18	12-30	12-28	10-13	12-25	2021-01-26	2021-01-02	11-02	12-29	10-31	07-21	12-21	12-28	12-29	12-22	11-02	--	12-30	12-25	12-25	12-21	07-21	12-22	12-21	10-25	12-26	--	2021-01-04	12-22	11-09	07-21	12-21	12-22	12-20	2021-01-03	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-21	12-14	12-28	12-26	12-21	12-25	12-25	10-27	12-22	07-21	12-28	12-27	11-01	12-21	12-23	12-22	12-27	12-21	12-07	12-02	12-25	10-18	2021-01-02	12-26	12-30	2021-01-04	12-27	12-21	12-26	12-21	12-21	12-22	12-22	12-27	--	--	12-21	12-27	12-22	12-26	12-08	12-21	11-01	12-27	12-27	12-15	12-25	11-02	12-21	12-22	12-21	12-27	12-26	12-21	12-13	07-21	11-02	12-07	07-21	12-22	12-28	12-22	10-16	12-29	12-22	12-22	12-28	12-27	12-22	12-27	12-31	12-28	12-25	12-31	12-21	12-30	12-26	11-02
Previous peak daily increment	605	366	61	88	97	285	134	82		260	170	110	176	178	78	477	589	189	58	326	128	109	277	233	271	426	1200	75	166	98		58	234	50	355	142	434	228		524	155	233	307	1167	107	508	94	186	62	72	160	211	137	99	256	87	148	354	172	194	175	111	303		292	268	58	197	249	283	59	91	71	65	1221	82	243		35	53	94	288	34	551	288	38	181	598	151	69	189	72	58	164	27	206	248	187	118	322	216	684	536		60	52	370	76	160	106	184	51	226	206	102	163	146	107	56	146	593	273	97	74		457	90	74	94	661	150	125	54	42	127	82	1697	92	56	180	92	451	119	34	377	218	59	201	57	401	172	103	338	103	106	136	120	476	101	159	52	139	442	57	115	452	143	83	239	134	44	237	275	148	70	100	283	198	349	153	428	107	1522	469	104	457	71	229	71	480	274	200	90	36	2166	92	419		46		298	37	62	153	109	105	213	296	361	79		65	191	105	63	2512	85	723	190	91		23	53	137	105	55	969	105	58	123	106	41	56	277	158	121	1362	90	68	257		125	44	108	227	154	135	347	43	156	174	623	105	81	176	445	286	41	188	39	194	138	65	96	198	80	85	67	174	36	25	417	448	80	147	82	407	65	131	557		209	244	167	97	218	110	102	67	181		42	86	73	839	94	79	108	80	66	102	115	248	293	451	131	156	222	94	55	112	144	189	138	197	67	42	206	105	331	189	270	181	172	56	109	46	140	349	90	44	138	123	360	138	51			559	151	90	110	120	84	245	329	449	390	227	260	138	117	160	65	154	86	29	296	165	42	369	67	115	217	319	264	83	148	431	106	138	377	106	115	176	95	173	71	69	573
Low between peaks	0	-1	-3	-2	-7	0	3			13	-11	2	-7	-17	-8	3	-2	9	-1	-30	-13	2	-14	-12		3	307	-1	55	-9		-14	17	2	31	-8	31	-4		-39	-11	1	-1	-18	-8	-8	-10	-16	-1	34	3	0	8	2	-17	-6	-64	5	-9	2	-2		-1		-7	-11		-3	-9	-14	-3	-6	0	4	-11	-4	-9		1	1	2	-30	-1	-13	-19	-5	-8	-4	-11	-5	1	-7	0	53	-3	34	1	-28	-14	-4	-2	-3	-6		-3	-7	-3	-6	-12	-2	-5	2	-1	-5	1	-17	-6	-5	0	-4	-80	-12	1	0		-4	0	0	4	-5	1	-7	-5	-8	-7	2	-7	-13	-8	-2	-8	-25	-21	1	-27	-25	-2	-5	1	-12	-2	-17	5	2	-1	-8	-12	-19	-9	-1	2	-1	-27	1	-1	12	-5	3	-2	-7	0	-5	-5	-5	-3	-3	-12	-3	27	20	2	-5	40	120	1	-18	0	-9	21	58	7	-22	0	0	27	1	-45		-13		2	-10	-3	-10	39	2	5	-15	0	-3		0	7	-10	1	15	-14	4	2	23		-5	-12	-3	-7		-7	5	-6	-16	5	1	-7	-3	-7	-4	6	-5	1	6		1	1	3	1	5	-74	37	0	0	-8	1	-1	-51	-13	-2	1	-20	-4	0	3	0	1	-6	0	-2	0	1	-14	-6	-8	2	-1	-4	-4	-20	-45	3	-6	23		-28	4	-3	-10	-2	-3	-4	24	-23		3	-5	-4	-7	-11	-5	-1	2	-5	-10	2	-2	-3	-16	-2	-6	-39	-13	-2	1	-1	-4	4	-5	-7	-12	1	-4	-13	-40	3	-9	7	-8	-5	-6	-12	-3	-7	-4	-9	2	-6	-11	-1			5	0	-18	-3	1	-18	16	-9	-22	-4	-6	-4	4	-12	-13	-5	1	-7	0	-2	1	-4	-2	-1	-12	7	6	-36	-9	-5	-68	0	-11	-19	-2	-6	2	1	0	-3	-6	-48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-29 to 2021-08-04

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-07-28	11547	8695	4118	7360	10938	5792	10795	8057	2472	18117	11141	12169	11284	14671	4979	26446	37291	27780	5705	20714	11399	11106	12763	17848	30523	26679	129825	9180	25438	14555	6539	7354	38067	6264	33835	9530	64519	13079	7758	34328	8536	14004	21870	46073	7443	30325	8469	10907	9876	13601	23768	14564	20318	8139	19210	8703	12402	29678	10935	11715	10008	9877	22102	2156	16488	16376	6030	11273	29317	29601	8082	6859	5989	11871	33014	3497	15042	395	5628	5091	6945	23487	3762	57482	32195	4124	10063	37829	11593	11276	12483	5555	6071	24175	4178	16615	33467	16077	8985	33106	5455	12721	37806	8962	3986	6338	7730	6362	11411	8619	5969	6315	7376	25575	11810	10847	7829	8285	3749	9644	33892	15050	7045	9894	7800	9540	6772	6529	7174	18990	11819	9411	4321	7203	21823	11390	59612	9447	5028	12116	7268	27542	9401	4285	27838	14693	6245	17756	6844	25783	9666	11145	24916	5882	12533	7692	8785	30917	8959	10225	7277	6363	32293	8082	7649	29594	10189	11532	4545	9038	2774	7975	20411	12148	7501	9008	25756	15216	45115	21669	32972	13318	89432	44289	6363	27652	8661	8993	9634	63080	24898	15801	4731	3858	74781	10250	30348	3741	4915	7080	19911	3395	4222	9532	14799	9438	18604	6475	25109	5821	4869	2386	12428	8478	10161	36721	11153	40733	12522	15573	8666	3492	8096	15588	8610	7042	30031	12416	3778	14540	20701	6217	8459	21446	26686	9408	39887	11764	5981	32060	146	13326	4129	12556	7969	18366	16121	18484	5289	18589	14190	37341	15235	7658	12134	15247	23094	6650	14586	3835	29538	8029	9308	5940	27152	8850	6848	10308	9197	2223	2526	33855	41415	7758	4380	6835	31566	7188	9070	57720	363	19264	17650	21328	7411	6334	6098	7869	9145	23080	2925	6362	9280	6403	25096	6982	6409	8049	11726	7491	10471	18809	20488	18054	29864	9147	10928	21868	10832	7514	7425	4904	29823	23094	26163	7201	5608	33761	6702	19659	15411	19223	15230	25680	7918	6902	5087	14598	12121	7675	4613	12465	8314	20319	10332	7263	7238	1780	35873	24353	7378	6547	8399	7073	37207	31031	29910	30820	23803	10733	9915	7496	9803	6194	10441	8535	1661	6580	11801	6091	11934	5814	8131	18985	41915	24676	6730	10744	32705	8375	11011	29630	8485	6967	13587	8148	13938	9993	7196	17218
2021-07-29	11660	8729	4137	7423	11170	5811	10890	8155	2479	18210	11210	12310	11370	14780	5015	26520	37560	27930	5742	20960	11460	11180	12960	17940	31030	26780	130800	9237	25610	14680	6549	7402	38180	6338	34180	9570	64790	13130	7813	34510	8556	14100	22030	46580	7483	30450	8516	10960	9950	13730	23940	14600	20450	8192	19330	8786	12450	29840	10960	11750	10020	9950	22240	2166	16580	16420	6076	11330	29640	29790	8136	6970	6011	11920	33190	3510	15120	399	5674	5126	7012	23850	3783	57950	32550	4150	10120	38040	11620	11550	12550	5582	6209	24360	4209	16720	33650	16300	9020	33440	5474	12740	37920	8987	4005	6400	7741	6445	11490	8666	6023	6371	7410	25760	11940	10980	7915	8354	3764	9690	34050	15170	7085	9980	7899	9577	6817	6556	7217	19080	11870	9477	4345	7263	21920	11450	60090	9530	5066	12170	7399	27680	9452	4301	27950	14760	6301	17850	6889	25910	9720	11180	25060	5916	12560	7758	8837	30990	9009	10280	7312	6399	32410	8126	7688	29800	10280	11690	4562	9086	2783	8015	20520	12220	7567	9069	25890	15290	45340	21760	33130	13540	90640	44580	6400	27850	8742	9082	9720	63440	24990	15990	4760	3953	75070	10340	30490	3766	5006	7091	20000	3413	4222	9570	14910	9520	18730	6510	25220	5851	4886	2395	12450	8545	10250	36900	11180	40860	12560	15710	8701	3492	8153	15770	8669	7095	30190	12500	3823	14750	20890	6232	8479	21640	26890	9510	40290	11890	6006	32560	147	13400	4144	12670	7982	18490	16310	18800	5321	18760	14260	37450	15350	7686	12190	15290	23190	6666	14670	3863	29660	8066	9327	5980	27370	8893	6882	10380	9225	2238	2543	34100	41710	7819	4388	6954	31960	7236	9129	58160	364	19450	17740	21470	7417	6358	6125	7927	9181	23200	2961	6404	9326	6449	25190	7036	6429	8090	11760	7549	10530	18900	20610	18150	30010	9191	10990	22100	11010	7670	7460	4925	30310	23250	26340	7257	5647	33930	6729	19740	15630	19260	15350	26050	7971	6930	5150	14780	12270	7717	4666	12510	8369	20400	10430	7345	7258	1780	36000	24550	7450	6588	8420	7123	37890	31270	30080	30980	24010	10810	9960	7534	9840	6227	10500	8625	1676	6624	11870	6132	12040	5868	8174	19090	42130	24990	6782	10810	32920	8425	11050	29870	8547	7057	13630	8216	14000	10050	7235	17260
2021-07-30	11730	8777	4175	7609	11300	5837	10990	8270	2484	18270	11350	12390	11410	14850	5071	26620	37750	28140	5806	21070	11570	11300	13070	18080	31370	26890	131400	9341	25710	14880	6559	7455	38230	6375	34480	9642	65240	13210	7867	34640	8603	14150	22120	46870	7508	30670	8594	11040	10100	13800	24020	14630	20620	8241	19530	8843	12510	29940	11030	11780	10050	10040	22440	2183	16750	16490	6126	11410	29820	29910	8221	7026	6041	12000	33320	3524	15240	399	5733	5208	7059	24120	3817	58250	32740	4200	10220	38420	11660	11700	12650	5615	6290	24470	4255	16770	33990	16470	9051	33620	5481	12780	38040	9026	4027	6471	7750	6490	11580	8726	6059	6414	7429	26050	12010	11070	7958	8471	3801	9760	34270	15240	7169	10160	7976	9653	6866	6575	7261	19150	11950	9515	4388	7384	22040	11550	60370	9591	5125	12240	7465	27900	9529	4330	28110	14860	6428	17970	6950	26070	9790	11210	25280	5954	12640	7806	8902	31080	9080	10360	7340	6434	32580	8191	7746	29930	10330	11780	4576	9126	2800	8053	20660	12330	7654	9101	26050	15390	45680	21910	33360	13660	91370	44770	6476	27990	8798	9158	9790	63710	25120	16090	4813	3998	75250	10420	30690	3834	5066	7100	20120	3432	4284	9626	15020	9610	18980	6578	25350	5899	4916	2407	12460	8631	10360	37120	11250	40980	12590	15820	8734	3572	8244	15860	8766	7122	30300	12610	3854	14870	21010	6274	8526	21760	27410	9600	40540	11960	6040	32840	152	13510	4162	12730	8012	18570	16610	18990	5377	18870	14350	37560	15590	7727	12280	15330	23250	6683	14800	3916	29710	8135	9356	6003	27520	8960	6952	10460	9263	2251	2570	34240	41890	7919	4418	7029	32220	7325	9225	58510	364	19570	17820	21550	7448	6395	6169	8004	9230	23390	3017	6428	9382	6555	25310	7090	6449	8147	11800	7651	10580	19060	20710	18310	30240	9254	11090	22230	11110	7754	7511	4961	30590	23530	26710	7295	5685	34190	6772	19860	15760	19290	15560	26280	7998	6975	5245	14870	12360	7797	4699	12550	8454	20460	10500	7461	7299	1815	36150	24660	7499	6645	8461	7186	38270	31420	30310	31240	24130	10990	10050	7598	9880	6244	10590	8672	1692	6660	11920	6176	12100	5964	8216	19230	42210	25220	6853	10900	33050	8526	11100	30020	8711	7107	13730	8329	14110	10140	7294	17310
2021-07-31	11790	8818	4204	7739	11400	5860	11080	8372	2491	18340	11460	12450	11450	14900	5117	26700	37900	28320	5857	21160	11660	11390	13150	18190	31620	27000	131800	9422	25780	15040	6569	7504	38230	6398	34730	9697	65610	13270	7910	34760	8636	14190	22180	47070	7530	30840	8657	11110	10210	13850	24100	14660	20770	8292	19690	8884	12540	30010	11080	11800	10070	10110	22600	2196	16870	16550	6172	11480	29950	29990	8290	7065	6065	12070	33420	3536	15340	399	5786	5266	7093	24330	3845	58430	32870	4238	10300	38720	11690	11790	12740	5644	6352	24560	4293	16850	34250	16580	9083	33740	5492	12810	38160	9058	4047	6536	7759	6529	11670	8779	6080	6445	7440	26290	12060	11130	7989	8565	3827	9820	34460	15290	7233	10290	8056	9710	6911	6588	7306	19210	12020	9536	4421	7477	22150	11630	60590	9642	5173	12310	7516	28070	9593	4353	28250	14950	6521	18070	7002	26220	9850	11240	25460	5990	12700	7832	8960	31170	9140	10430	7350	6468	32720	8245	7796	30040	10360	11850	4592	9170	2813	8091	20780	12420	7730	9118	26190	15480	45950	22030	33540	13730	91910	44920	6533	28070	8824	9229	9860	63910	25220	16160	4854	4024	75370	10480	30870	3882	5101	7110	20230	3451	4337	9671	15130	9690	19160	6630	25470	5938	4940	2417	12480	8707	10470	37320	11300	41100	12610	15940	8766	3636	8319	15890	8843	7160	30380	12710	3880	14950	21100	6302	8561	21860	27790	9690	40720	12000	6070	33020	156	13600	4178	12770	8035	18630	16860	19130	5422	18950	14430	37670	15770	7760	12350	15370	23300	6700	14900	3955	29720	8188	9379	6017	27600	9016	7005	10540	9295	2265	2592	34340	42030	8001	4438	7081	32420	7395	9302	58800	365	19630	17870	21620	7475	6426	6205	8071	9271	23540	3063	6440	9431	6633	25420	7142	6467	8192	11840	7731	10610	19190	20780	18440	30430	9307	11180	22320	11190	7820	7553	4989	30800	23750	26990	7321	5721	34410	6807	19960	15850	19300	15720	26420	8011	7012	5324	14920	12440	7859	4727	12590	8523	20510	10540	7560	7330	1826	36290	24740	7533	6693	8493	7241	38510	31550	30510	31450	24220	11120	10120	7649	9920	6268	10660	8696	1707	6691	11950	6216	12150	6039	8244	19360	42250	25380	6913	10980	33150	8603	11140	30110	8827	7157	13800	8419	14200	10210	7344	17360
2021-08-01	11830	8853	4229	7840	11480	5881	11170	8464	2498	18410	11560	12510	11490	14950	5156	26790	38040	28480	5903	21250	11730	11470	13240	18290	31870	27100	132200	9490	25820	15190	6579	7550	38250	6426	34950	9745	65930	13330	7945	34890	8664	14220	22210	47270	7532	31000	8713	11170	10300	13900	24160	14680	20900	8342	19840	8939	12580	30070	11120	11810	10090	10180	22750	2207	16980	16600	6216	11540	30070	30050	8350	7119	6089	12130	33540	3549	15430	401	5834	5313	7127	24570	3870	58600	32990	4270	10360	38980	11720	11860	12810	5672	6416	24630	4328	16940	34480	16730	9115	33940	5507	12840	38270	9087	4066	6597	7770	6558	11750	8828	6093	6480	7456	26500	12100	11180	8010	8646	3848	9870	34630	15340	7285	10400	8133	9757	6954	6606	7351	19260	12080	9567	4450	7555	22240	11700	60800	9690	5215	12360	7567	28230	9651	4373	28370	15030	6598	18170	7050	26350	9900	11270	25620	6023	12740	7858	9013	31250	9193	10490	7382	6501	32850	8292	7840	30130	10410	11910	4608	9205	2823	8129	20890	12490	7798	9140	26330	15550	46200	22130	33710	13810	92340	45100	6580	28140	8851	9305	9940	64140	25320	16250	4890	4054	75490	10540	31020	3919	5154	7120	20320	3468	4384	9712	15240	9770	19320	6671	25580	5972	4961	2427	12490	8777	10560	37500	11340	41220	12630	16060	8798	3689	8385	15940	8910	7201	30450	12800	3906	15040	21200	6324	8589	21940	28080	9780	40870	12050	6097	33170	158	13680	4193	12810	8052	18700	17070	19270	5461	19000	14500	37780	15920	7790	12410	15400	23330	6715	15000	3988	29750	8232	9398	6035	27680	9065	7050	10610	9325	2278	2612	34420	42150	8073	4453	7144	32590	7453	9370	59090	366	19690	17930	21720	7505	6452	6237	8133	9309	23670	3104	6456	9478	6696	25510	7192	6485	8233	11880	7799	10660	19290	20880	18550	30590	9355	11250	22430	11250	7865	7591	5014	30980	23940	27220	7344	5758	34590	6837	20050	15950	19320	15860	26540	8052	7044	5394	15000	12500	7910	4752	12630	8585	20560	10570	7650	7356	1854	36420	24830	7570	6737	8519	7291	38720	31640	30690	31630	24310	11220	10180	7694	9950	6295	10720	8740	1722	6718	11980	6255	12190	6103	8280	19470	42280	25570	6969	11050	33310	8666	11180	30200	8919	7192	13860	8497	14280	10280	7388	17400
2021-08-02	11890	8887	4253	7934	11590	5901	11260	8552	2505	18490	11650	12590	11520	15010	5195	26870	38220	28640	5946	21320	11800	11550	13360	18390	32090	27190	132700	9556	25890	15330	6588	7595	38300	6459	35190	9791	66240	13380	7994	35040	8689	14260	22350	47540	7566	31140	8766	11230	10380	13960	24270	14710	21040	8392	19970	8987	12630	30140	11150	11830	10110	10250	22890	2218	17090	16640	6260	11600	30220	30170	8408	7174	6112	12180	33660	3561	15510	404	5882	5357	7173	24770	3894	58910	33160	4301	10430	39220	11740	11970	12880	5699	6489	24720	4362	17030	34690	16870	9146	34080	5522	12860	38380	9115	4085	6658	7780	6595	11820	8876	6124	6515	7484	26700	12160	11260	8046	8725	3867	9930	34790	15400	7335	10510	8210	9802	6996	6630	7396	19360	12140	9586	4478	7630	22330	11770	61020	9764	5257	12420	7609	28380	9707	4392	28490	15100	6671	18260	7097	26480	9950	11300	25770	6057	12780	7896	9065	31320	9245	10550	7454	6533	32980	8339	7883	30250	10440	11990	4623	9255	2834	8166	21000	12570	7864	9158	26460	15630	46440	22230	33880	13890	92930	45260	6625	28270	8898	9390	10020	64410	25420	16320	4924	4087	75750	10610	31170	3954	5199	7130	20410	3485	4429	9751	15340	9850	19480	6711	25690	6005	4980	2438	12510	8846	10640	37680	11380	41340	12660	16190	8829	3740	8450	16120	8974	7245	30580	12880	3940	15160	21320	6345	8615	22060	28360	9860	41080	12100	6123	33380	160	13750	4208	12860	8069	18780	17280	19400	5499	19090	14570	37890	16060	7819	12470	15440	23370	6729	15090	4019	29820	8274	9417	6058	27760	9112	7092	10680	9354	2292	2631	34570	42320	8143	4468	7196	32790	7509	9434	59430	366	19780	17980	21860	7558	6477	6267	8194	9346	23810	3143	6462	9525	6756	25610	7242	6503	8273	11910	7864	10710	19390	20940	18660	30760	9402	11320	22550	11330	7933	7629	5037	31210	24120	27440	7369	5794	34770	6867	20130	16020	19350	15990	26700	8088	7075	5463	15070	12580	7960	4792	12660	8644	20630	10620	7738	7380	1885	36550	24990	7607	6780	8544	7341	39010	31780	30860	31810	24420	11320	10240	7738	9990	6323	10790	8764	1736	6751	12040	6294	12250	6165	8320	19590	42360	25790	7024	11120	33460	8725	11220	30320	9005	7251	13920	8572	14350	10340	7432	17440
2021-08-03	11940	8919	4275	8011	11660	5920	11350	8636	2512	18580	11730	12660	11550	15040	5231	26940	38360	28780	5986	21380	11860	11620	13460	18480	32390	27290	133100	9616	25930	15460	6598	7640	38320	6492	35480	9833	66530	13430	8043	35170	8712	14300	22460	47780	7591	31270	8816	11280	10460	14010	24340	14740	21170	8442	20100	9023	12670	30210	11170	11860	10120	10320	23020	2228	17190	16680	6304	11660	30350	30250	8462	7224	6135	12240	33770	3573	15590	407	5927	5395	7215	24980	3916	59150	33300	4328	10490	39450	11770	12030	12950	5725	6536	24800	4394	17120	34890	17010	9179	34180	5539	12890	38490	9141	4104	6718	7791	6620	11900	8923	6146	6547	7507	26890	12210	11330	8078	8796	3884	9970	34930	15450	7378	10600	8288	9842	7038	6649	7441	19450	12190	9608	4503	7697	22420	11840	61180	9810	5295	12470	7656	28510	9759	4410	28600	15160	6734	18350	7141	26610	10000	11330	25910	6089	12810	7928	9115	31400	9294	10600	7481	6566	33090	8383	7923	30360	10470	12050	4640	9297	2843	8204	21110	12640	7928	9180	26580	15700	46660	22330	34030	13940	93380	45420	6664	28360	8919	9460	10090	64670	25510	16380	4955	4107	75870	10680	31310	3983	5233	7140	20500	3502	4472	9789	15450	9930	19620	6746	25790	6036	4998	2447	12530	8912	10730	37860	11410	41460	12710	16310	8861	3787	8511	16190	9033	7291	30680	12960	3968	15250	21430	6362	8638	22160	28590	9950	41250	12130	6148	33500	161	13820	4222	12890	8083	18870	17480	19540	5534	19160	14640	38000	16190	7846	12520	15480	23420	6744	15180	4047	29840	8312	9434	6081	27870	9157	7129	10740	9382	2306	2650	34680	42470	8207	4479	7244	32970	7560	9494	59830	368	19840	18030	21950	7609	6501	6296	8252	9381	23930	3180	6472	9570	6808	25690	7291	6522	8310	11940	7923	10740	19480	21040	18760	30910	9446	11380	22650	11390	7984	7664	5058	31390	24290	27630	7392	5831	34940	6894	20210	16080	19380	16120	26800	8115	7105	5527	15120	12640	8005	4818	12700	8700	20680	10650	7822	7401	1912	36670	25060	7654	6820	8567	7389	39230	31890	31020	31980	24510	11400	10300	7778	10030	6354	10850	8790	1751	6783	12080	6331	12300	6220	8362	19700	42380	25970	7076	11180	33590	8778	11250	30420	9078	7300	13970	8641	14420	10390	7473	17480
2021-08-04	12000	8951	4296	8083	11710	5939	11440	8718	2520	18670	11810	12730	11600	15100	5266	27020	38510	28920	6025	21460	11920	11690	13550	18570	32750	27380	133700	9674	25980	15590	6608	7684	38420	6519	35780	9873	66810	13480	8085	35310	8733	14340	22620	48120	7652	31400	8865	11340	10530	14060	24410	14760	21300	8493	20220	9058	12740	30280	11190	11870	10140	10380	23150	2238	17280	16730	6348	11720	30510	30400	8514	7273	6157	12280	33880	3585	15680	410	5972	5431	7256	25210	3938	59430	33470	4355	10550	39670	11800	12120	13010	5751	6567	24910	4426	17220	35080	17190	9211	34340	5556	12910	38600	9166	4122	6777	7802	6662	11970	8969	6175	6583	7520	27080	12270	11430	8110	8866	3899	10020	35080	15510	7420	10680	8365	9880	7080	6668	7487	19540	12240	9641	4528	7761	22510	11900	61360	9865	5333	12520	7701	28650	9811	4427	28710	15230	6794	18440	7185	26740	10050	11360	26050	6122	12840	7962	9164	31470	9342	10660	7505	6598	33210	8426	7963	30450	10530	12070	4656	9339	2851	8242	21220	12700	7991	9223	26710	15770	46880	22410	34180	14000	93880	45600	6702	28480	8966	9547	10170	64880	25610	16460	4984	4126	76190	10760	31450	4010	5262	7151	20580	3519	4514	9825	15560	10010	19760	6779	25900	6066	5015	2457	12550	8977	10810	38030	11440	41580	12740	16440	8892	3832	8570	16290	9091	7339	30800	13050	4002	15330	21550	6378	8660	22260	28810	10040	41460	12200	6172	33620	162	13890	4236	12920	8097	18960	17670	19630	5567	19220	14710	38100	16310	7873	12580	15520	23460	6759	15260	4074	29960	8349	9451	6111	28030	9201	7165	10810	9409	2320	2668	34840	42650	8270	4490	7279	33070	7608	9553	60230	369	19930	18070	22070	7665	6524	6323	8309	9415	24060	3215	6499	9615	6858	25780	7341	6540	8347	11970	7980	10780	19570	21210	18850	31060	9489	11440	22750	11440	8020	7699	5079	31520	24450	27810	7436	5868	35100	6921	20290	16130	19410	16230	26950	8146	7133	5591	15200	12680	8048	4857	12740	8754	20750	10700	7905	7421	1930	36800	25150	7707	6860	8588	7437	39450	32040	31180	32140	24610	11480	10350	7817	10060	6384	10900	8848	1765	6804	12150	6369	12350	6274	8402	19810	42530	26150	7128	11250	33730	8829	11290	30560	9147	7339	14010	8708	14490	10450	7512	17530

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-29 to 2021-08-04

Date	Aberdeen City	Aberdeenshire	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Angus	Antrim and Newtownabbey	Ards and North Down	Argyll and Bute	Armagh City and Banbridge and Craigavon	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Belfast	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Blaenau Gwent	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Bridgend	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Caerphilly	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Cardiff	Carlisle	Carmarthenshire	Castle Point	Causeway Coast and Glens	Central Bedfordshire	Ceredigion	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	City of Edinburgh	Clackmannanshire	Colchester	Comhairle nan Eilean Siar	Conwy	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Denbighshire	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Derry City and Strabane	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Dumfries and Galloway	Dundee City	Ealing	East Ayrshire	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Dunbartonshire	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Lothian	East Northamptonshire	East Renfrewshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Falkirk	Fareham	Fenland	Fermanagh and Omagh	Fife	Flintshire	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Glasgow City	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Gwynedd	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Highland	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Inverclyde	Ipswich	Isle of Anglesey	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Lisburn and Castlereagh	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merthyr Tydfil	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Mid Ulster	Mid and East Antrim	Middlesbrough	Midlothian	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	Monmouthshire	Moray	Neath Port Talbot	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	Newport	Newry and Mourne and Down	North Ayrshire	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lanarkshire	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Orkney Islands	Oxford	Pembrokeshire	Pendle	Perth and Kinross	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Powys	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Renfrewshire	Rhondda Cynon Taf	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Scottish Borders	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shetland Islands	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Ayrshire	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Lanarkshire	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stirling	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swansea	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torfaen	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of Glamorgan	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Dunbartonshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Lothian	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wrexham	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2021-07-28	11547	8695	4118	7360	10938	5792	10795	8057	2472	18117	11141	12169	11284	14671	4979	26446	37291	27780	5705	20714	11399	11106	12763	17848	30523	26679	129825	9180	25438	14555	6539	7354	38067	6264	33835	9530	64519	13079	7758	34328	8536	14004	21870	46073	7443	30325	8469	10907	9876	13601	23768	14564	20318	8139	19210	8703	12402	29678	10935	11715	10008	9877	22102	2156	16488	16376	6030	11273	29317	29601	8082	6859	5989	11871	33014	3497	15042	395	5628	5091	6945	23487	3762	57482	32195	4124	10063	37829	11593	11276	12483	5555	6071	24175	4178	16615	33467	16077	8985	33106	5455	12721	37806	8962	3986	6338	7730	6362	11411	8619	5969	6315	7376	25575	11810	10847	7829	8285	3749	9644	33892	15050	7045	9894	7800	9540	6772	6529	7174	18990	11819	9411	4321	7203	21823	11390	59612	9447	5028	12116	7268	27542	9401	4285	27838	14693	6245	17756	6844	25783	9666	11145	24916	5882	12533	7692	8785	30917	8959	10225	7277	6363	32293	8082	7649	29594	10189	11532	4545	9038	2774	7975	20411	12148	7501	9008	25756	15216	45115	21669	32972	13318	89432	44289	6363	27652	8661	8993	9634	63080	24898	15801	4731	3858	74781	10250	30348	3741	4915	7080	19911	3395	4222	9532	14799	9438	18604	6475	25109	5821	4869	2386	12428	8478	10161	36721	11153	40733	12522	15573	8666	3492	8096	15588	8610	7042	30031	12416	3778	14540	20701	6217	8459	21446	26686	9408	39887	11764	5981	32060	146	13326	4129	12556	7969	18366	16121	18484	5289	18589	14190	37341	15235	7658	12134	15247	23094	6650	14586	3835	29538	8029	9308	5940	27152	8850	6848	10308	9197	2223	2526	33855	41415	7758	4380	6835	31566	7188	9070	57720	363	19264	17650	21328	7411	6334	6098	7869	9145	23080	2925	6362	9280	6403	25096	6982	6409	8049	11726	7491	10471	18809	20488	18054	29864	9147	10928	21868	10832	7514	7425	4904	29823	23094	26163	7201	5608	33761	6702	19659	15411	19223	15230	25680	7918	6902	5087	14598	12121	7675	4613	12465	8314	20319	10332	7263	7238	1780	35873	24353	7378	6547	8399	7073	37207	31031	29910	30820	23803	10733	9915	7496	9803	6194	10441	8535	1661	6580	11801	6091	11934	5814	8131	18985	41915	24676	6730	10744	32705	8375	11011	29630	8485	6967	13587	8148	13938	9993	7196	17218
2021-07-29	11600	8726	4148	7409	11010	5809	10910	8145	2485	18230	11230	12250	11330	14740	5017	26520	37460	27910	5737	20810	11460	11200	12860	17930	30890	26790	130400	9248	25500	14680	6548	7398	38160	6300	34110	9590	64870	13130	7802	34480	8575	14040	22010	46430	7492	30510	8521	10960	9930	13660	23860	14590	20450	8196	19350	8755	12450	29770	10950	11740	10050	9980	22260	2165	16580	16450	6085	11310	29520	29730	8143	6924	6034	11920	33120	3512	15130	398	5670	5127	6989	23800	3790	57720	32420	4159	10120	38010	11650	11380	12550	5592	6130	24280	4215	16720	33670	16230	9021	33320	5483	12750	37950	8985	4017	6404	7749	6398	11500	8678	5997	6358	7395	25770	11860	10930	7862	8348	3764	9710	34010	15130	7083	9970	7899	9571	6827	6553	7224	19070	11860	9454	4351	7251	21930	11460	59810	9512	5070	12170	7341	27690	9452	4298	27980	14750	6298	17870	6892	25900	9710	11210	25030	5924	12590	7730	8830	31050	9008	10290	7303	6406	32410	8132	7688	29720	10260	11570	4571	9078	2781	8013	20550	12210	7569	9055	26010	15290	45300	21760	33160	13380	89950	44500	6396	27790	8703	9089	9720	63340	24980	15890	4765	3890	75050	10330	30490	3765	4966	7090	20010	3427	4253	9586	14910	9524	18770	6499	25250	5859	4885	2402	12440	8556	10250	36900	11210	40870	12560	15720	8697	3535	8153	15700	8659	7104	30140	12500	3810	14680	20820	6250	8515	21570	26820	9494	40130	11820	6007	32220	147	13400	4146	12590	7999	18460	16370	18630	5319	18670	14260	37450	15390	7708	12190	15280	23140	6669	14670	3865	29640	8072	9329	5965	27320	8908	6887	10390	9234	2239	2542	34020	41560	7804	4399	6897	31720	7239	9139	58140	366	19390	17700	21420	7456	6362	6126	7925	9183	23300	2961	6393	9327	6450	25190	7039	6453	8102	11790	7547	10520	18880	20650	18150	30050	9196	11000	21980	10900	7569	7468	4926	30010	23270	26280	7242	5653	33910	6735	19750	15480	19270	15370	25800	7948	6939	5132	14690	12190	7729	4651	12500	8371	20400	10410	7361	7253	1804	36020	24430	7427	6594	8419	7133	37430	31190	30030	30990	23920	10810	9960	7532	9850	6230	10500	8609	1677	6605	11850	6136	11990	5860	8181	19090	42050	24890	6779	10820	32870	8419	11090	29740	8538	7015	13620	8201	14020	10050	7240	17310
2021-07-30	11650	8759	4188	7512	11090	5823	11020	8240	2497	18320	11340	12320	11390	14820	5064	26610	37660	28080	5782	20930	11570	11320	12980	18040	31230	26930	131200	9327	25570	14850	6556	7443	38310	6341	34420	9670	65310	13200	7840	34640	8632	14090	22150	46800	7548	30730	8579	11020	10010	13720	23970	14610	20600	8249	19500	8816	12510	29860	11020	11760	10110	10060	22450	2177	16680	16580	6134	11360	29740	29910	8219	6986	6094	12000	33240	3525	15260	399	5730	5204	7038	24080	3827	58020	32680	4207	10190	38230	11740	11500	12630	5626	6206	24420	4259	16820	33950	16390	9058	33530	5499	12780	38100	9011	4047	6472	7769	6438	11600	8747	6029	6393	7415	26050	11920	11020	7898	8436	3786	9780	34170	15210	7131	10070	7970	9621	6880	6581	7265	19130	11930	9503	4396	7317	22040	11560	60000	9588	5123	12230	7422	27850	9511	4316	28160	14820	6382	18000	6945	26050	9770	11290	25160	5975	12690	7770	8883	31200	9066	10360	7342	6447	32580	8196	7738	29850	10340	11610	4584	9131	2789	8064	20700	12300	7644	9097	26240	15380	45520	21870	33390	13450	90440	44670	6439	27960	8770	9143	9810	63580	25080	15970	4806	3917	75340	10410	30660	3801	5027	7098	20120	3464	4291	9661	15020	9590	18980	6527	25400	5906	4907	2419	12450	8643	10320	37090	11290	41000	12590	15860	8715	3604	8236	15820	8730	7145	30250	12600	3839	14820	20950	6304	8582	21710	27070	9559	40360	11920	6038	32420	150	13470	4165	12640	8036	18530	16660	18770	5355	18780	14340	37560	15640	7763	12270	15320	23190	6691	14760	3904	29770	8134	9363	5994	27500	8983	6929	10480	9275	2255	2563	34210	41710	7873	4415	6947	31850	7305	9223	58550	370	19540	17760	21570	7494	6388	6167	7992	9231	23600	3005	6430	9382	6522	25280	7091	6503	8159	11860	7634	10570	18990	20820	18280	30230	9250	11100	22080	10980	7635	7518	4951	30220	23550	26430	7290	5704	34140	6770	19870	15560	19310	15530	25980	7977	6987	5190	14800	12280	7812	4684	12530	8443	20490	10510	7469	7273	1838	36160	24530	7480	6649	8446	7186	37660	31360	30170	31260	24070	10900	10030	7588	9910	6264	10580	8678	1694	6630	11910	6176	12050	5916	8228	19220	42250	25120	6832	10890	32980	8463	11180	29890	8625	7073	13680	8263	14130	10150	7300	17400
2021-07-31	11690	8789	4222	7590	11150	5838	11130	8329	2505	18410	11430	12360	11430	14890	5104	26680	37820	28230	5817	21040	11650	11430	13070	18140	31520	27030	131800	9395	25620	14990	6564	7479	38440	6369	34690	9740	65700	13240	7871	34780	8681	14130	22260	47070	7598	30930	8630	11080	10080	13770	24070	14630	20730	8301	19620	8864	12550	29920	11060	11770	10160	10140	22620	2187	16760	16680	6175	11390	29920	30050	8285	7040	6145	12060	33350	3537	15360	401	5785	5260	7079	24310	3861	58230	32890	4247	10240	38430	11820	11580	12710	5657	6273	24530	4297	16910	34170	16520	9094	33710	5516	12820	38220	9035	4076	6529	7786	6475	11690	8807	6051	6423	7432	26290	11970	11090	7924	8507	3804	9840	34310	15290	7168	10140	8043	9653	6926	6600	7306	19190	11980	9542	4428	7374	22140	11640	60150	9655	5165	12290	7490	27990	9561	4333	28310	14880	6451	18110	6990	26170	9820	11350	25260	6018	12770	7799	8929	31310	9112	10420	7373	6481	32730	8253	7773	29970	10410	11640	4599	9177	2797	8111	20840	12370	7708	9122	26440	15460	45680	21960	33550	13490	90850	44800	6476	28100	8815	9198	9900	63780	25170	16030	4841	3934	75570	10480	30810	3830	5076	7106	20220	3497	4325	9722	15120	9652	19160	6549	25530	5947	4921	2433	12460	8722	10380	37270	11360	41110	12620	16000	8736	3664	8308	15910	8783	7184	30330	12680	3864	14920	21060	6344	8638	21830	27260	9623	40550	11990	6065	32580	153	13550	4182	12680	8064	18590	16910	18880	5384	18870	14420	37670	15840	7811	12340	15350	23220	6712	14840	3939	29840	8187	9391	6013	27640	9049	6962	10550	9307	2270	2580	34370	41840	7929	4428	6984	31960	7361	9295	58920	373	19660	17810	21700	7524	6412	6204	8042	9272	23860	3043	6459	9425	6582	25350	7135	6548	8206	11910	7710	10610	19090	20970	18400	30370	9297	11180	22160	11040	7686	7562	4971	30400	23790	26540	7329	5745	34330	6792	19980	15630	19340	15670	26120	8000	7026	5240	14890	12350	7882	4713	12560	8507	20570	10580	7558	7288	1857	36270	24610	7522	6694	8470	7228	37790	31520	30290	31460	24190	10970	10090	7635	9950	6298	10650	8727	1710	6652	11950	6214	12090	5961	8261	19340	42380	25320	6874	10950	33070	8495	11250	29990	8687	7125	13720	8313	14220	10230	7353	17480
2021-08-01	11720	8814	4251	7658	11190	5855	11240	8410	2515	18490	11520	12420	11480	14950	5141	26750	37960	28370	5852	21130	11730	11530	13160	18230	31820	27130	132300	9459	25660	15130	6572	7511	38540	6401	34940	9810	66060	13290	7899	34920	8725	14170	22350	47340	7631	31110	8676	11130	10140	13810	24160	14650	20860	8351	19750	8916	12590	29980	11090	11780	10200	10210	22770	2196	16830	16760	6213	11430	30090	30170	8346	7095	6191	12110	33460	3548	15460	404	5836	5317	7118	24550	3892	58440	33070	4283	10310	38610	11890	11660	12770	5685	6337	24630	4333	17000	34370	16670	9128	33910	5532	12850	38360	9060	4103	6587	7803	6505	11770	8863	6072	6458	7451	26500	12010	11150	7941	8574	3820	9900	34440	15370	7205	10210	8112	9684	6974	6622	7345	19250	12040	9583	4460	7426	22230	11710	60340	9718	5205	12340	7553	28120	9607	4349	28450	14940	6513	18220	7032	26280	9870	11410	25360	6059	12830	7828	8972	31410	9160	10480	7408	6513	32870	8305	7804	30080	10490	11670	4615	9214	2804	8156	20980	12440	7770	9151	26620	15530	45850	22050	33680	13540	91210	44960	6509	28230	8857	9256	9980	64000	25260	16100	4874	3952	75800	10550	30940	3854	5123	7114	20310	3528	4357	9779	15230	9707	19330	6574	25660	5985	4934	2448	12470	8795	10440	37430	11420	41220	12640	16130	8760	3714	8370	15990	8830	7222	30410	12770	3889	15030	21170	6379	8686	21940	27430	9685	40730	12050	6091	32730	155	13620	4199	12710	8090	18640	17140	18980	5411	18950	14490	37770	16010	7855	12390	15390	23240	6731	14910	3970	29950	8237	9416	6032	27760	9110	6995	10630	9336	2284	2598	34520	41940	7985	4439	7027	32070	7413	9361	59270	376	19760	17850	21830	7557	6435	6238	8091	9310	24100	3079	6488	9463	6636	25430	7181	6586	8250	11960	7777	10660	19170	21120	18500	30500	9341	11260	22250	11100	7729	7604	4990	30570	24010	26650	7366	5783	34510	6819	20070	15690	19370	15800	26240	8029	7062	5281	14980	12420	7946	4740	12580	8566	20650	10650	7622	7301	1883	36360	24670	7561	6735	8491	7270	37920	31640	30410	31640	24300	11040	10150	7677	9990	6331	10710	8782	1724	6676	11980	6250	12130	5999	8295	19450	42510	25540	6915	11010	33210	8522	11320	30070	8748	7169	13770	8359	14300	10300	7402	17550
2021-08-02	11780	8851	4283	7721	11270	5875	11340	8491	2525	18580	11610	12510	11520	15020	5176	26830	38170	28550	5893	21210	11830	11620	13300	18320	32110	27260	133000	9520	25740	15260	6580	7558	38680	6435	35210	9870	66410	13360	7935	35070	8766	14210	22530	47680	7684	31280	8742	11180	10210	13890	24280	14680	21000	8404	19870	8963	12640	30060	11170	11800	10240	10290	22920	2206	16920	16850	6273	11480	30270	30380	8404	7147	6235	12180	33590	3561	15560	407	5887	5393	7167	24780	3922	58810	33300	4316	10350	38790	11960	11780	12840	5715	6401	24740	4366	17110	34650	16810	9162	34080	5550	12880	38540	9089	4129	6644	7823	6549	11840	8926	6105	6504	7472	26710	12080	11240	7990	8656	3836	9960	34580	15440	7254	10300	8193	9720	7018	6655	7385	19330	12090	9619	4497	7494	22320	11780	60550	9795	5243	12390	7611	28250	9651	4364	28600	14990	6574	18330	7073	26410	9920	11510	25480	6115	12930	7866	9022	31550	9223	10540	7449	6556	33000	8353	7856	30210	10550	11720	4635	9266	2811	8200	21110	12510	7838	9196	26810	15600	46130	22130	33910	13620	91890	45160	6544	28370	8910	9315	10060	64240	25340	16190	4906	3991	76170	10630	31110	3887	5167	7124	20400	3558	4388	9838	15330	9772	19500	6602	25780	6021	4955	2464	12480	8867	10530	37600	11480	41370	12670	16260	8786	3761	8434	16140	8885	7268	30540	12850	3928	15150	21290	6422	8739	22080	27650	9748	40940	12130	6117	32930	156	13680	4215	12760	8123	18720	17360	19090	5443	19040	14560	37870	16190	7898	12470	15440	23290	6749	15010	4000	30130	8283	9455	6064	27940	9169	7037	10720	9368	2299	2617	34720	42140	8067	4451	7067	32200	7463	9424	59640	378	19880	17900	21980	7600	6460	6270	8158	9352	24320	3115	6514	9521	6686	25530	7250	6626	8293	12030	7838	10700	19250	21270	18590	30660	9382	11330	22390	11160	7791	7644	5016	30740	24220	26790	7415	5841	34760	6849	20170	15750	19400	15920	26400	8057	7110	5357	15080	12480	8006	4778	12620	8623	20740	10740	7741	7319	1915	36500	24800	7614	6786	8513	7326	38230	31790	30550	31850	24440	11110	10200	7718	10050	6365	10780	8857	1738	6703	12050	6287	12190	6054	8346	19560	42750	25760	6969	11070	33350	8566	11410	30190	8830	7225	13810	8407	14380	10380	7449	17640
2021-08-03	11830	8890	4320	7802	11340	5893	11440	8571	2537	18660	11700	12590	11560	15090	5210	26910	38350	28690	5925	21300	11940	11710	13460	18400	32420	27350	133700	9580	25810	15390	6588	7608	38840	6471	35520	9930	66750	13420	7973	35230	8807	14260	22730	48070	7735	31450	8799	11250	10290	13950	24400	14710	21130	8461	19980	9006	12680	30140	11250	11810	10300	10360	23070	2215	17010	16950	6325	11520	30480	30550	8461	7199	6277	12260	33730	3574	15660	410	5937	5446	7217	25010	3952	59130	33540	4349	10420	38970	12030	11880	12900	5743	6461	24850	4400	17220	34890	16980	9195	34230	5572	12920	38700	9115	4155	6710	7842	6594	11920	8991	6138	6552	7495	26910	12140	11310	8032	8732	3850	10020	34710	15510	7287	10370	8272	9762	7061	6688	7425	19400	12140	9659	4529	7561	22410	11850	60740	9865	5279	12440	7668	28370	9693	4380	28740	15040	6642	18430	7112	26530	9970	11590	25580	6157	12980	7903	9064	31670	9286	10600	7483	6593	33130	8403	7908	30340	10620	11760	4653	9308	2818	8244	21240	12580	7898	9243	26990	15670	46390	22220	34110	13700	92510	45330	6578	28520	8964	9375	10140	64480	25420	16290	4935	4026	76420	10700	31280	3910	5209	7133	20490	3588	4419	9905	15440	9840	19670	6627	25910	6056	4973	2481	12490	8938	10620	37770	11560	41500	12710	16400	8808	3822	8514	16260	8953	7315	30650	12930	3964	15260	21420	6470	8795	22210	27880	9812	41190	12230	6142	33130	158	13750	4231	12800	8154	18810	17580	19210	5469	19130	14630	37970	16390	7940	12550	15480	23340	6768	15110	4029	30250	8327	9481	6098	28130	9227	7066	10790	9411	2315	2638	34910	42330	8144	4463	7102	32310	7512	9487	60020	381	19990	17950	22160	7637	6486	6303	8223	9399	24540	3150	6538	9575	6735	25630	7312	6675	8344	12110	7905	10750	19340	21410	18690	30820	9421	11410	22500	11220	7852	7684	5036	30940	24430	26890	7462	5904	34940	6883	20290	15800	19430	16050	26560	8084	7144	5424	15180	12540	8066	4812	12650	8680	20840	10810	7853	7335	1941	36630	24910	7664	6833	8533	7367	38510	31930	30690	32100	24580	11160	10250	7765	10100	6398	10850	8918	1752	6728	12110	6323	12240	6100	8399	19680	42950	25970	7013	11130	33480	8604	11490	30330	8901	7274	13860	8464	14460	10470	7495	17720
2021-08-04	11890	8927	4350	7886	11390	5910	11540	8661	2545	18750	11810	12670	11610	15160	5244	27000	38550	28830	5957	21400	12030	11820	13590	18500	32730	27440	134400	9639	25880	15530	6597	7660	38990	6509	35850	10000	67090	13480	8007	35380	8846	14300	22930	48530	7792	31610	8859	11300	10370	14010	24510	14730	21270	8516	20100	9050	12740	30210	11330	11820	10360	10440	23210	2223	17090	17030	6382	11570	30690	30720	8518	7254	6319	12350	33840	3586	15780	414	5987	5534	7263	25260	3982	59480	33770	4382	10490	39140	12110	11990	12970	5780	6519	24980	4433	17330	35240	17150	9229	34420	5589	12950	38880	9137	4181	6786	7859	6649	11990	9047	6175	6607	7513	27160	12210	11410	8077	8797	3865	10080	34830	15590	7324	10450	8351	9794	7104	6723	7464	19470	12190	9706	4566	7624	22500	11910	60990	9936	5314	12490	7731	28500	9734	4395	28890	15090	6702	18530	7150	26650	10020	11670	25690	6197	13080	7941	9115	31780	9354	10650	7520	6635	33290	8465	7961	30470	10690	11800	4670	9349	2825	8288	21360	12650	7958	9290	27170	15740	46640	22300	34360	13790	93080	45510	6618	28680	9021	9437	10230	64710	25510	16400	4966	4057	76800	10780	31450	3933	5250	7142	20570	3618	4450	9976	15550	9912	19870	6648	26030	6091	4990	2492	12510	9009	10710	37930	11610	41640	12740	16530	8831	3871	8577	16360	9017	7355	30770	13010	4005	15370	21550	6526	8845	22340	28110	9875	41400	12320	6167	33320	159	13820	4247	12840	8183	18900	17800	19300	5500	19220	14700	38070	16550	7981	12640	15530	23380	6786	15200	4058	30420	8375	9507	6134	28340	9284	7098	10860	9440	2333	2658	35130	42520	8226	4472	7136	32420	7560	9548	60410	383	20090	17990	22360	7674	6509	6342	8283	9442	24760	3191	6571	9628	6784	25730	7371	6716	8392	12160	7988	10800	19420	21610	18780	31000	9460	11480	22630	11280	7906	7723	5058	31100	24680	27000	7515	5968	35120	6920	20380	15880	19460	16170	26760	8116	7179	5494	15280	12600	8136	4845	12670	8736	20930	10890	7972	7348	1969	36760	25010	7711	6877	8556	7409	38790	32090	30830	32320	24720	11250	10300	7812	10160	6432	10910	8990	1766	6753	12190	6359	12290	6143	8454	19810	43210	26180	7065	11190	33610	8635	11560	30470	8970	7325	13910	8520	14530	10560	7552	17790

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-07-28 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-07-28