COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-06-21 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2022-06-21

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2022-06-21

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-25 --2022-03-232022-03-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-22 --2022-03-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-232022-01-24 --2022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-03-22 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-22 --2022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-06-132022-03-232022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-03-222022-06-132022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-01-242022-01-242022-03-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 -- --2022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-232022-03-22 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-282022-01-242022-03-22 --2022-03-262022-01-242022-03-222022-03-22 --2022-01-242022-03-222022-03-232022-01-242022-03-232022-01-24 --2022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-03-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-05-042022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-04-192022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-272022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-03-252022-03-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-03-232022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-03-232022-03-262022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-06-142022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-06-132022-01-242022-03-232022-03-222022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-03-222022-03-222022-05-04
Peak daily increment 543 1126 1275 1382 1599 1253 2241 604 134 398 3961 989 2556 1660 1411 1658 266 253 17521 1550 3317 165 97 205 641 4741 1427 8814 1557 928 4180 916 3217 6862 1115 3849 1176 1160 153 2002 167 195 234 273 132 1418 1362 1222 433 2422 2091 214 270 562 4793 1173 962 949 1524 302 774 71 3960 513 7900 4326 70 1426 372 1559 1550 131 862 3466 481 4767 2335 21 307 312 663 1048 885 1468 1093 891 441 158 1625 976 1274 71 1353 3625 1652 982 152 1007 930 917 1022 779 105 2871 147 1464 847 1510 117 3360 1261 3318 173 120 194 22 3254 1188 224 3091 867 1796 839 1224 4135 287 1188 1044 274 131 1158 3872 1474 1689 1209 1017 2632 1024 1191 1252 274 2021 423 185 4514 1732 837 234 803 3519 136 1238 9205 172 1963 580 540 462 146 3625 516 696 2554 147 650 1251 2802 3381 825 1263 162 4887 167 230 659 963 1941 1111 180 220 131 1868 297 835 131 2965 442 1403 274 1790 56 4269 210 57 3085 535 331 2466 197 234 2322 108 1632 60 2082 507 3955 966 1232 765 290 142 892 158 145 51 75 4748 5886 183 1073 4438 126 1175 933 530 2347 2862 1130 87 1599 147 2982 170 863 1470 162 1059 875 1101 128 1007 129 2510 3022 2379 330 1253 1583 227 196 134 992 3842 3631 293 1010 929 4460 904 2652 1725 2290 3757 94 844 990 249 1394 1055 812 237 1025 2766 1234 1351 431 5344 3306 1034 878 1143 361 250 3811 4283 279 217 1301 1098 1167 804 1352 1077 245 1620 922 862 34 1659 5841 3884 989 1539 4859 32 1823 241 139 796 1077 2155 132 129 275
Days since peak 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 90 91 148 148 148 148 148 148 91 91 148 148 148 88 90 84 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 91 148 91 89 91 91 90 148 148 148 91 148 148 91 91 91 148 148 148 148 148 91 148 90 148 148 148 148 86 148 91 148 148 91 148 148 148 148 148 8 90 91 148 148 148 148 148 148 91 90 148 148 148 91 148 148 148 148 90 148 148 148 148 148 91 148 90 148 148 148 89 148 148 148 91 90 91 8 148 148 91 148 148 148 148 148 148 91 148 148 91 88 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 89 148 91 91 148 148 91 91 148 148 88 148 148 89 148 148 148 91 90 148 148 148 148 90 148 148 148 148 148 148 91 148 90 91 148 148 148 148 91 91 91 148 91 148 91 148 91 148 91 148 85 148 91 87 148 91 91 148 91 90 148 90 148 90 148 148 148 148 148 148 91 91 148 91 91 89 91 148 148 48 148 148 91 148 63 91 148 148 148 91 148 86 148 91 148 148 91 148 148 148 91 148 87 148 148 148 91 148 148 88 89 90 148 148 148 87 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 90 148 148 90 148 148 148 91 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 90 87 148 148 91 91 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 148 7 148 148 148 148 148 148 8 148 90 91 148 148 148 91 91 48
Last total 19961 32116 41507 50051 43345 43817 68789 26756 70003 128430 90861 25548 66936 59465 40339 61904 65423 82888 350389 36194 56856 50269 21313 26904 95996 21285 136871 43780 174775 50256 39823 103605 27007 40927 97756 171081 40932 111034 34312 33082 38559 33278 67202 51428 68117 45107 73960 35145 48326 103077 37200 47950 31199 100133 12880 62554 62725 37680 53852 132634 122834 34677 36384 32618 42023 66433 26498 23700 27231 162218 24482 186670 113387 17055 41381 126447 52378 38728 40839 28600 24690 87864 20414 109550 109062 36006 110512 121128 27742 43296 38276 51195 38708 29654 108650 42045 70170 33400 46780 14969 50175 98007 44847 28684 38341 43315 37176 31595 39092 34820 24420 26640 71449 41346 43457 27852 37301 31477 92099 48042 27017 91776 50174 27349 64673 31360 84687 32967 53939 83086 33946 34371 30111 40340 90913 54027 38234 30279 103170 37817 45989 96333 57939 29404 45767 14845 41164 76004 45863 35874 45138 91551 61178 140576 60692 113977 47593 279799 122037 31083 97825 35771 34032 178958 76355 58378 20339 20821 196153 38539 95618 16654 34224 19354 73802 24337 29208 51962 53747 99662 28292 20069 42654 51347 40057 108887 42565 108640 44243 29680 33199 53813 44259 36823 54410 24430 70698 79646 21880 35028 80523 109619 45976 111423 46823 20396 80227 53893 26329 31142 75550 90982 73367 26350 52400 58808 101598 48524 29516 54523 71445 21546 68006 15573 77834 29376 24862 26507 94752 39920 29442 42408 35865 12051 14470 97378 111840 31821 38963 100609 30382 39822 192710 99088 52597 74356 46829 24053 53752 37175 99579 24959 28326 45888 29396 41917 30903 47200 39959 49841 37244 55609 84000 62258 104447 36400 53482 68041 46832 31270 30427 105159 72844 89658 41585 35857 101317 31949 74472 49844 68646 74841 81685 27637 30114 40219 64234 46045 42757 29904 45582 33153 63452 43935 44306 27007 19304 108209 86583 38393 30026 36973 44707 119446 94790 91439 119075 78581 49522 35747 42827 47499 26700 40372 50833 15131 39344 29623 35205 51232 69812 118151 154753 41165 52499 114883 37120 61044 90146 33967 35881 37924 39174 59590 37039 31576 66895
Last daily increment 17 28 27 40 32 43 50 23 37 128 54 30 52 72 34 61 75 52 225 31 35 29 1 15 67 14 94 64 102 29 43 82 29 8 90 153 62 97 51 23 40 24 47 3 50 87 83 25 54 13 38 10 18 83 0 51 62 39 43 126 119 15 48 32 36 68 11 25 20 177 20 184 91 20 32 131 51 33 36 22 10 64 22 80 131 34 78 102 26 47 40 45 32 26 88 29 78 24 61 14 35 54 38 25 27 44 51 32 5 44 24 26 98 19 39 20 26 24 82 47 3 61 40 19 49 26 49 14 45 86 35 24 20 41 67 49 38 22 92 29 49 75 80 18 41 4 66 71 44 32 50 56 61 93 32 102 39 197 70 29 80 35 22 137 50 61 16 23 128 25 78 30 38 3 69 21 30 46 29 61 23 1 6 71 36 103 41 56 4 44 25 43 44 39 48 36 70 78 24 26 50 117 48 71 29 11 31 69 2 13 54 107 68 1 32 50 54 47 17 40 27 19 66 16 36 23 19 30 68 33 29 42 36 15 18 75 58 21 38 59 37 31 153 96 42 62 41 8 66 43 111 38 23 52 36 60 32 62 27 25 27 34 105 42 96 30 53 51 36 41 25 101 57 70 45 39 96 19 55 34 10 75 47 12 28 49 53 40 47 15 41 25 45 37 37 1 9 67 66 28 18 6 60 71 63 48 80 68 49 36 55 56 30 35 66 18 40 32 40 39 74 97 193 53 51 103 34 75 52 26 35 2 50 41 35 28 76
Last week 83 117 162 244 156 232 297 118 185 593 289 143 243 353 163 316 286 327 1089 152 150 152 16 114 299 83 533 262 532 206 211 384 108 53 472 725 273 585 165 116 199 91 238 39 243 362 397 128 278 97 170 40 112 496 10 249 270 163 290 599 552 142 222 174 180 299 45 115 98 891 121 931 430 98 189 552 238 165 154 132 44 305 114 380 645 168 381 474 167 215 267 235 152 113 477 184 384 138 291 75 219 310 183 136 139 215 247 130 30 178 107 119 361 129 194 141 116 122 382 228 15 357 207 137 275 116 340 116 236 346 219 106 108 252 318 299 162 140 436 180 253 386 312 86 167 21 230 364 251 138 220 254 303 458 215 485 187 1012 378 143 430 155 143 765 264 263 87 132 653 106 359 96 169 14 336 140 137 259 144 364 140 16 37 294 166 454 186 321 20 164 123 206 208 168 206 159 366 401 102 153 240 556 257 340 148 55 215 339 20 74 259 443 325 23 200 260 307 220 115 190 103 86 336 72 222 132 98 142 300 190 142 232 148 58 88 352 329 106 174 421 145 192 833 469 187 315 241 98 375 196 548 161 141 220 205 287 135 290 174 252 155 194 477 249 477 152 276 276 232 158 120 490 299 376 265 172 434 149 324 218 53 335 267 82 144 225 259 196 264 130 203 151 218 193 154 28 92 406 325 188 124 36 290 360 303 327 488 320 255 167 258 279 137 163 294 110 168 156 202 242 366 414 888 264 248 496 177 412 269 125 155 21 228 261 171 135 388
Previous peak date2021-07-162021-07-142021-07-142021-07-152021-10-05 -- --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-142021-10-042021-07-142021-07-152021-07-142021-10-202022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-06-062022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-202021-07-152021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-07-152021-07-152021-06-072021-07-142021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-12-292022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-12-292021-07-152021-12-292021-07-152022-01-242021-12-29 --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-142021-08-172021-10-192021-07-152022-01-242021-12-292021-07-142022-01-242021-08-17 --2021-07-102021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-132022-01-24 --2021-12-29 --2021-10-122021-07-15 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-08-18 --2021-07-15 --2021-07-142022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-15 --2022-01-24 -- --2021-07-152021-07-132022-01-242021-08-18 --2021-10-132021-12-292021-07-152021-07-142022-01-242021-07-122022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-12-282021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-172021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-132021-08-24 --2021-07-162022-01-242021-07-152021-10-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-14 -- --2021-06-292021-10-042021-12-29 --2021-07-15 --2021-09-252021-07-152022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-162022-01-242022-01-242021-07-112021-07-162022-01-242021-07-29 --2022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-182021-07-132021-10-192021-12-28 --2022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-12-292021-12-29 --2022-01-242021-07-112022-01-242022-01-242021-12-292021-11-222021-07-152021-07-11 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-10-182022-01-242021-07-142022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-08-032022-01-242021-07-162022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-12-292022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-12-30 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-12-292022-01-242021-07-162021-07-142021-07-132021-07-152021-06-292021-07-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242022-01-242021-07-15 --2022-01-242021-08-17 --2022-01-242021-07-162022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-142021-10-152022-01-24 --2022-01-242021-07-152022-01-24 -- --2022-01-242021-10-182021-07-162021-07-142022-01-242021-07-152022-01-242021-07-052021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24 --2021-07-152021-07-142022-01-24 --2021-10-152021-07-132021-07-152021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-10-182021-07-152022-01-24 --2021-08-172022-01-242021-07-142021-07-152021-10-192022-01-242021-07-15 --2021-07-152021-07-152021-12-292021-11-232021-07-152021-10-05 --2021-07-152021-12-292021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242021-07-172021-07-142022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-07-15 --2021-10-072021-07-152021-10-182021-08-172021-07-15 --2021-07-152022-01-242021-07-152021-07-152021-10-192021-10-19 -- --2022-01-24 --2022-01-242022-01-242021-07-152021-12-30 --2021-07-152022-01-242022-01-242022-01-24
Previous peak daily increment 51 115 105 127 120 57 3477 4581 276 70 139 152 144 287 2285 3307 943 127 2250 372 962 4696 293 107 478 103 176 68 586 218 621 4 258 94 72 1302 74 2935 705 2895 1143 2214 1302 1240 115 573 101 3005 206 170 1033 1466 3801 243 82 73 125 121 1939 463 114 995 708 607 376 551 101 5019 122 140 1634 308 64 400 1159 4687 4677 135 122 65 3182 1563 61 417 105 58 1189 128 88 565 67 56 884 274 1519 95 63 1137 163 376 229 2105 817 2104 1115 152 61 1498 65 146 54 151 1707 82 90 3914 1327 84 75 161 224 189 139 71 3609 6117 3336 301 117 11029 6320 51 213 1176 99 3848 120 41 47 10177 1515 169 40 164 267 503 101 274 49 211 590 1329 384 1519 5335 595 123 94 256 1060 1824 525 291 2931 77 1179 3811 87 5264 158 839 255 1562 286 1808 2613 2589 344 2199 4529 297 1065 114 1162 776 140 67 213 75 73 49 4307 1311 1297 1206 259 344 253 951 123 857 96 8405 3240 277 202 768 1218 345 587 763 128 68 77 1609 106 1377 303 200 152 4073 70 131 3012 1783 1077 243 339 3812 201 428 57 145 101 987 329 219 968 143 2555 116 92 150 1551 78 105 131 384 106 226 286 64 475 79 5038 4407 157 313 2987 1563 73 70 90 102 193 70 94 65 1416 138 380 632 149 1307 4157 1188 63 404 117 1437 1060 2087
Low between peaks 16 24 37 49 59 18 51 163 103 28 53 51 54 99 87 80 406 33 47 21 45 124 39 190 42 75 22 83 100 2 100 38 34 55 31 43 43 97 122 31 22 21 143 46 94 98 164 119 31 31 54 35 107 25 29 227 190 143 19 39 163 49 43 40 32 142 10 85 150 49 57 30 136 49 25 19 38 23 45 44 41 29 19 22 75 49 21 30 49 76 57 45 39 89 7 75 27 85 32 32 18 70 81 41 37 115 39 39 24 58 51 49 30 100 95 49 74 44 269 77 20 66 41 43 66 51 17 14 129 31 77 11 75 58 36 58 24 42 120 35 103 61 39 68 52 44 56 115 99 22 32 136 42 108 50 15 87 96 9 148 106 86 84 49 38 51 15 61 17 69 20 21 17 66 54 55 59 20 21 104 20 40 35 33 182 149 91 64 28 46 58 48 35 59 28 35 30 42 33 55 94 56 161 34 49 48 60 33 118 78 78 62 96 24 64 24 103 85 22 34 70 35 37 63 74 33 36 51 41 72 125 31 36 79 68 70 94 69 88 36 31 40 47 87 17 42 24 14 58 112 316 69 10 58 59 31 52 36 37 36

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2022-06-22 to 2022-06-28

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-06-21 19961 32116 41507 50051 43345 43817 68789 26756 70003 128430 90861 25548 66936 59465 40339 61904 65423 82888 350389 36194 56856 50269 21313 26904 95996 21285 136871 43780 174775 50256 39823 103605 27007 40927 97756 171081 40932 111034 34312 33082 38559 33278 67202 51428 68117 45107 73960 35145 48326 103077 37200 47950 31199 100133 12880 62554 62725 37680 53852 132634 122834 34677 36384 32618 42023 66433 26498 23700 27231 162218 24482 186670 113387 17055 41381 126447 52378 38728 40839 28600 24690 87864 20414 109550 109062 36006 110512 121128 27742 43296 38276 51195 38708 29654 108650 42045 70170 33400 46780 14969 50175 98007 44847 28684 38341 43315 37176 31595 39092 34820 24420 26640 71449 41346 43457 27852 37301 31477 92099 48042 27017 91776 50174 27349 64673 31360 84687 32967 53939 83086 33946 34371 30111 40340 90913 54027 38234 30279 103170 37817 45989 96333 57939 29404 45767 14845 41164 76004 45863 35874 45138 91551 61178 140576 60692 113977 47593 279799 122037 31083 97825 35771 34032 178958 76355 58378 20339 20821 196153 38539 95618 16654 34224 19354 73802 24337 29208 51962 53747 99662 28292 20069 42654 51347 40057 108887 42565 108640 44243 29680 33199 53813 44259 36823 54410 24430 70698 79646 21880 35028 80523 109619 45976 111423 46823 20396 80227 53893 26329 31142 75550 90982 73367 26350 52400 58808 101598 48524 29516 54523 71445 21546 68006 15573 77834 29376 24862 26507 94752 39920 29442 42408 35865 12051 14470 97378 111840 31821 38963 100609 30382 39822 192710 99088 52597 74356 46829 24053 53752 37175 99579 24959 28326 45888 29396 41917 30903 47200 39959 49841 37244 55609 84000 62258 104447 36400 53482 68041 46832 31270 30427 105159 72844 89658 41585 35857 101317 31949 74472 49844 68646 74841 81685 27637 30114 40219 64234 46045 42757 29904 45582 33153 63452 43935 44306 27007 19304 108209 86583 38393 30026 36973 44707 119446 94790 91439 119075 78581 49522 35747 42827 47499 26700 40372 50833 15131 39344 29623 35205 51232 69812 118151 154753 41165 52499 114883 37120 61044 90146 33967 35881 37924 39174 59590 37039 31576 66895
2022-06-22 19980 32130 41540 50100 43370 43860 68810 26790 70040 128500 90920 25570 66990 59520 40370 61960 65490 82950 350600 36220 56880 50310 22400 26920 96050 21300 137000 43830 174900 50260 39860 103700 27030 43100 97840 171200 40980 111100 34360 33100 38600 33280 67250 54200 68160 45170 74020 35170 48370 109000 37230 50500 31210 100200 13440 62590 62770 37710 53900 132700 122900 34690 36420 32660 42060 66480 27800 23720 27250 162400 24500 186900 113500 17070 41420 126500 52420 38750 40870 28630 25900 87920 20440 109600 109200 36040 110600 121200 27780 43340 38310 51200 38730 29680 108700 42070 70240 33410 46830 14980 50190 98040 44860 28700 38370 43350 37220 31620 41100 34850 24440 26660 71530 41370 43480 27880 37330 31500 92140 48070 28300 91820 50200 27370 64710 31380 84730 32980 53990 83160 33980 34390 30140 40380 90980 54080 38260 30300 103200 37840 46030 96410 58000 29420 45790 15500 41230 76060 45890 35900 45170 91590 61200 140700 60730 114000 47640 279800 122100 31110 97890 35800 34060 179000 76400 58430 20360 20840 196300 38570 95650 16680 34250 20300 73860 24370 29220 52010 53780 99700 28320 21000 44900 51410 40090 108900 42600 108700 46600 29710 33220 53850 44280 36850 54460 24460 70760 79720 21900 35060 80550 109700 46020 111500 46850 20410 80260 53930 26330 31150 75580 91090 73430 27600 52430 58840 101700 48560 29540 54540 75500 21560 68060 15590 77880 29400 24880 26530 94810 39950 29460 42450 35880 12060 14490 97440 111900 31840 38990 100700 30410 39850 192800 99170 52610 74410 46860 24070 53810 37210 99700 24990 28350 45940 29430 41970 30920 47240 39990 49900 37270 55640 84090 62310 104500 36400 53530 68080 46870 31300 30450 105200 72900 89710 41620 35890 101400 31970 74490 49880 72400 74900 81730 27650 30150 40250 64280 46080 42780 29920 45590 33170 63450 43950 44310 28400 19320 108300 86630 38430 30050 38900 44750 119500 94840 91490 119100 78620 49560 35780 42880 47550 26730 40380 50890 15150 39370 29650 35240 51270 69840 118200 154900 41210 52500 115000 37150 61110 90200 33990 35880 40000 39210 59630 37070 31600 66970
2022-06-23 20000 32130 41570 50160 43370 43890 68840 26820 70070 128600 90980 25600 67040 59580 40400 62030 65540 83000 350800 36250 56900 50340 55700 26940 96090 21310 137100 43870 175000 50280 39890 103700 27040 113900 97910 171300 41030 111200 34400 33120 38630 33280 67290 146400 68200 45230 74080 35200 48380 313000 37260 135500 31230 100300 32090 62630 62820 37740 53940 132800 123000 34690 36440 32690 42090 66520 70700 23740 27270 162500 24510 187100 113500 17090 41450 126600 52460 38750 40890 28660 65400 87970 20460 109700 109300 36070 110700 121300 27810 43380 38340 51220 38750 29690 108800 42090 70300 33410 46870 14990 50220 98080 44890 28720 38390 43390 37250 31650 108300 34850 24460 26670 71590 41390 43510 27900 37350 31510 92180 48100 72300 91890 50240 27380 64750 31400 84780 33000 54030 83230 34010 34400 30170 40420 91040 54130 38270 30330 103300 37860 46070 96490 58060 29430 45810 37500 41280 76120 45920 35910 45200 91640 61240 140800 60770 114100 47680 280000 122100 31120 97960 35830 34080 179200 76440 58480 20370 20860 196400 38590 95710 16690 34250 50100 73920 24390 29220 52050 53810 99800 28340 52200 119100 51460 40120 109000 42630 108700 124100 29720 33240 53890 44300 36870 54500 24490 70780 79780 21910 35080 80580 109800 46070 111500 46870 20410 80280 53980 29700 31170 75610 91170 73490 70400 52450 58870 101700 48590 29560 54560 209800 21560 68120 15610 77910 29420 24900 26540 94850 39980 29470 42500 35900 12060 14510 97490 112000 31860 39010 100800 30430 39870 192900 99250 52640 74460 46880 24080 53840 37240 99700 25000 28380 45980 29460 42010 30940 47270 40020 49950 37300 55680 84160 62360 104600 36400 53570 68130 46920 31320 30470 105300 72940 89770 41650 35930 101500 31990 74530 49900 200600 74960 81750 27670 30180 40290 64330 46110 42810 29920 45630 33180 63470 43970 44320 72200 19330 108400 86690 38460 30060 101900 44790 119600 94890 91550 119200 78660 49590 35800 42920 47590 26750 40390 50940 15150 39390 29670 35280 51310 69900 118300 155100 41240 52520 115100 37190 61170 90250 34000 35890 104800 39240 59660 37090 31630 67040
2022-06-24 20010 32140 41600 50210 43380 43930 68870 26850 70110 128700 91040 25620 67090 59640 40420 62090 65600 83050 351000 36280 56920 50370 88000 26960 96130 21330 137200 43910 175000 50310 39920 103800 27060 185500 97990 171400 41070 111300 34440 33140 38670 33280 67330 241100 68250 45290 74140 35220 48410 532000 37290 222800 31250 100300 49840 62670 62870 37770 53990 132900 123100 34690 36470 32720 42120 66560 113400 23760 27290 162600 24530 187200 113600 17100 41490 126700 52500 38760 40920 28690 104500 88020 20480 109700 109400 36100 110800 121300 27840 43420 38370 51250 38780 29710 108900 42110 70360 33420 46910 15010 50260 98130 44920 28740 38410 43420 37280 31670 176100 34870 24480 26680 71660 41420 43530 27920 37370 31520 92240 48130 116100 91940 50280 27400 64790 31410 84850 33020 54090 83300 34050 34420 30190 40470 91100 54190 38290 30350 103400 37890 46100 96560 58120 29450 45840 58500 41320 76180 45960 35930 45230 91690 61270 140900 60800 114200 47720 280100 122200 31150 98010 35860 34110 179200 76480 58530 20390 20880 196500 38620 95750 16700 34260 78800 73960 24410 29230 52100 53840 99900 28360 82500 194400 51520 40150 109100 42660 108800 203000 29740 33250 53930 44330 36900 54540 24530 70830 79850 21930 35110 80620 109900 46120 111600 46900 20410 80310 54020 31720 31180 75660 91250 73550 112800 52470 58900 101800 48630 29580 54580 350400 21570 68170 15620 77940 29440 24910 26560 94890 40010 29490 42540 35910 12070 14530 97550 112000 31870 39040 100800 30450 39900 193000 99330 52660 74510 46910 24100 53890 37270 99800 25030 28400 46030 29490 42050 30950 47300 40050 49980 37320 55710 84240 62410 104600 36400 53620 68180 46960 31350 30490 105400 72990 89840 41690 35960 101600 32010 74570 49930 334800 75020 81780 27690 30200 40330 64370 46150 42850 29930 45650 33190 63480 44000 44350 115600 19350 108400 86740 38490 30090 165700 44830 119700 94950 91600 119300 78710 49620 35830 42970 47630 26770 40420 50990 15160 39420 29700 35310 51360 69950 118300 155200 41270 52550 115100 37230 61230 90300 34020 35900 170100 39280 59700 37120 31650 67120
2022-06-25 20030 32160 41630 50260 43400 43970 68910 26870 70140 128700 91090 25630 67140 59700 40450 62150 65660 83110 351200 36310 56950 50400 112200 26980 96180 21340 137300 43950 175100 50330 39950 103800 27080 239900 98070 171500 41120 111400 34480 33150 38700 33290 67370 313900 68290 45350 74210 35250 48450 705000 37320 289800 31260 100400 63050 62710 62920 37800 54030 133000 123200 34690 36500 32750 42150 66610 145900 23780 27310 162700 24540 187400 113700 17120 41520 126800 52540 38770 40950 28720 134000 88080 20500 109800 109500 36130 110800 121400 27870 43460 38400 51270 38800 29740 109000 42140 70430 33430 46960 15020 50290 98180 44950 28760 38440 43460 37320 31690 227900 34900 24510 26700 71730 41440 43550 27950 37390 31540 92290 48160 149600 92000 50310 27420 64830 31430 84900 33040 54130 83370 34080 34430 30210 40510 91160 54240 38310 30370 103400 37920 46150 96640 58180 29460 45870 74200 41370 76230 46000 35950 45270 91730 61310 140900 60830 114300 47760 280200 122200 31170 98080 35890 34130 179400 76520 58580 20400 20910 196600 38640 95810 16720 34280 100100 74020 24430 29250 52140 53860 99900 28390 105200 251900 51580 40190 109100 42690 108900 263400 29770 33280 53960 44350 36930 54570 24550 70880 79920 21950 35140 80650 110000 46170 111600 46930 20420 80340 54070 33000 31190 75700 91330 73610 145000 52490 58930 101800 48660 29600 54590 459400 21580 68220 15630 77970 29470 24930 26580 94940 40040 29510 42570 35930 12080 14550 97600 112100 31890 39070 100900 30480 39930 193200 99420 52690 74560 46940 24120 53940 37300 99900 25050 28420 46080 29530 42100 30970 47330 40080 50030 37350 55740 84320 62450 104700 36410 53670 68220 47000 31380 30520 105500 73040 89890 41720 35990 101600 32030 74600 49960 438900 75080 81820 27700 30230 40360 64410 46190 42890 29950 45690 33210 63490 44020 44370 148400 19360 108500 86800 38530 30100 214400 44870 119700 95010 91660 119400 78750 49660 35860 43020 47680 26800 40440 51050 15180 39440 29720 35350 51400 69990 118400 155400 41310 52580 115200 37260 61290 90350 34040 35920 219700 39320 59740 37150 31680 67190
2022-06-26 20050 32170 41660 50320 43420 44010 68950 26900 70170 128800 91150 25660 67180 59760 40480 62210 65720 83170 351400 36340 56970 50430 135300 27000 96220 21360 137400 44000 175200 50360 39990 103900 27100 292800 98160 171700 41170 111500 34520 33180 38740 33300 67410 385100 68340 45400 74280 35270 48490 875000 37340 355500 31280 100500 75730 62750 62970 37830 54080 133100 123300 34700 36530 32780 42180 66660 177400 23800 27330 162800 24560 187600 113800 17130 41560 126900 52580 38790 40980 28750 162600 88130 20520 109900 109700 36160 110900 121500 27900 43510 38440 51300 38830 29760 109100 42170 70500 33440 47010 15030 50330 98220 44980 28780 38470 43490 37360 31710 278300 34920 24530 26720 71790 41470 43580 27970 37420 31560 92370 48190 182200 92070 50340 27430 64870 31450 84970 33060 54180 83440 34120 34450 30250 40550 91230 54300 38330 30400 103500 37940 46190 96720 58240 29470 45900 89300 41430 76290 46040 35980 45300 91790 61350 141000 60870 114300 47800 280400 122300 31200 98160 35920 34160 179500 76560 58640 20420 20930 196700 38660 95880 16740 34300 120500 74070 24460 29260 52180 53890 100000 28410 127000 307900 51630 40220 109200 42730 108900 322400 29790 33300 53990 44390 36960 54610 24580 70940 79990 21970 35170 80700 110000 46220 111700 46960 20430 80370 54120 34120 31200 75740 91410 73670 176300 52520 58970 101900 48700 29620 54620 566400 21600 68270 15650 78010 29490 24930 26600 95000 40070 29530 42620 35950 12080 14570 97650 112100 31910 39100 101000 30500 39960 193300 99510 52720 74620 46980 24130 54000 37340 100000 25080 28450 46120 29560 42150 30990 47370 40120 50080 37380 55780 84400 62500 104800 36430 53720 68260 47050 31410 30540 105500 73090 89960 41760 36030 101700 32050 74650 49990 541300 75140 81850 27720 30260 40400 64460 46230 42940 29970 45730 33220 63510 44050 44410 180000 19380 108600 86860 38570 30130 261900 44920 119800 95070 91720 119500 78800 49710 35880 43070 47730 26820 40460 51110 15190 39470 29750 35390 51450 70040 118400 155500 41350 52610 115300 37300 61360 90400 34060 35950 267800 39360 59780 37170 31700 67270
2022-06-27 20070 32190 41690 50370 43450 44050 69000 26930 70200 129000 91200 25690 67230 59830 40510 62270 65770 83240 351600 36360 56990 50460 146300 27020 96270 21380 137500 44050 175300 50400 40030 104000 27130 317800 98260 171800 41220 111700 34560 33200 38770 33320 67450 419100 68390 45490 74370 35300 48530 958000 37380 387000 31300 100500 81950 62800 63030 37860 54130 133200 123300 34710 36570 32820 42210 66710 192900 23820 27350 163000 24580 187800 113900 17150 41590 127000 52620 38810 41010 28780 176500 88190 20540 110000 109800 36190 111000 121600 27940 43550 38480 51340 38860 29780 109200 42200 70580 33460 47060 15050 50390 98290 45010 28810 38490 43540 37400 31740 302300 34950 24550 26740 71860 41490 43620 28000 37450 31580 92460 48220 198300 92140 50390 27460 64940 31480 85040 33090 54230 83520 34160 34460 30270 40600 91310 54350 38360 30420 103600 37980 46240 96800 58310 29490 45930 96700 41480 76360 46090 36000 45340 91840 61400 141100 60910 114400 47840 280600 122400 31220 98270 35950 34180 179600 76610 58690 20430 20950 196800 38690 95960 16760 34330 130000 74130 24480 29280 52230 53920 100100 28430 137500 334500 51690 40250 109300 42760 109000 350500 29820 33330 54040 44420 36990 54660 24620 71000 80060 21980 35190 80770 110200 46260 111800 46980 20440 80400 54190 34860 31210 75790 91510 73730 191600 52550 59030 102000 48750 29640 54650 617300 21610 68330 15670 78040 29520 24950 26620 95050 40100 29560 42660 35960 12100 14590 97720 112200 31940 39130 101000 30530 40000 193400 99600 52760 74670 47010 24150 54060 37370 100000 25110 28470 46170 29600 42200 31010 47400 40160 50140 37400 55810 84480 62550 104800 36450 53780 68330 47090 31430 30560 105600 73140 90030 41810 36070 101800 32070 74690 50030 590300 75210 81890 27740 30290 40450 64520 46270 42990 29990 45770 33240 63540 44080 44450 195200 19400 108600 86920 38610 30160 284800 44960 119900 95130 91800 119600 78860 49750 35910 43120 47780 26840 40490 51160 15210 39500 29780 35420 51520 70100 118500 155700 41400 52670 115400 37340 61420 90450 34080 35980 290600 39400 59830 37200 31730 67340
2022-06-28 20090 32210 41730 50420 43470 44090 69040 26960 70240 129100 91250 25720 67280 59890 40540 62330 65830 83300 351800 36390 57010 50490 152100 27040 96310 21390 137600 44090 175400 50440 40070 104100 27150 331000 98360 171900 41270 111800 34600 33230 38810 33340 67490 437300 68430 45550 74440 35320 48580 1001000 37410 404100 31320 100600 85470 62850 63080 37900 54190 133300 123400 34730 36610 32850 42250 66770 201600 23840 27370 163100 24600 187900 114000 17170 41630 127100 52670 38830 41040 28800 184200 88250 20560 110000 109900 36230 111100 121700 27970 43600 38520 51380 38890 29810 109300 42230 70650 33480 47110 15060 50430 98360 45050 28830 38520 43580 37440 31770 315300 34980 24570 26760 71930 41520 43650 28030 37470 31610 92540 48260 207400 92210 50430 27480 64990 31500 85100 33110 54280 83590 34200 34480 30290 40640 91360 54410 38390 30440 103700 38010 46280 96880 58370 29500 45970 100800 41530 76440 46140 36030 45380 91900 61450 141200 60930 114500 47880 280800 122400 31250 98360 35990 34210 179700 76650 58740 20450 20970 196900 38710 96040 16780 34350 135000 74180 24500 29310 52270 53950 100100 28460 143300 348700 51750 40290 109400 42790 109000 365500 29850 33350 54080 44460 37020 54700 24650 71060 80130 22000 35220 80830 110300 46310 111800 47010 20450 80440 54240 35460 31220 75850 91580 73790 200100 52570 59060 102000 48790 29660 54680 644200 21620 68380 15680 78070 29540 24960 26640 95110 40140 29580 42710 35980 12110 14610 97780 112200 31960 39170 101100 30560 40030 193500 99690 52800 74730 47060 24160 54120 37400 100100 25130 28500 46220 29630 42250 31030 47440 40190 50180 37430 55850 84560 62600 104900 36470 53830 68380 47140 31460 30590 105700 73190 90100 41850 36100 101900 32090 74740 50070 616400 75280 81930 27750 30320 40490 64570 46310 43040 30010 45810 33260 63590 44120 44480 203300 19410 108700 86990 38640 30180 297400 45000 119900 95190 91860 119700 78930 49790 35940 43170 47830 26870 40530 51220 15220 39530 29800 35460 51560 70160 118600 155900 41440 52730 115500 37370 61480 90500 34100 36020 302600 39440 59880 37230 31760 67410

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2022-06-22 to 2022-06-28

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2022-06-21 19961 32116 41507 50051 43345 43817 68789 26756 70003 128430 90861 25548 66936 59465 40339 61904 65423 82888 350389 36194 56856 50269 21313 26904 95996 21285 136871 43780 174775 50256 39823 103605 27007 40927 97756 171081 40932 111034 34312 33082 38559 33278 67202 51428 68117 45107 73960 35145 48326 103077 37200 47950 31199 100133 12880 62554 62725 37680 53852 132634 122834 34677 36384 32618 42023 66433 26498 23700 27231 162218 24482 186670 113387 17055 41381 126447 52378 38728 40839 28600 24690 87864 20414 109550 109062 36006 110512 121128 27742 43296 38276 51195 38708 29654 108650 42045 70170 33400 46780 14969 50175 98007 44847 28684 38341 43315 37176 31595 39092 34820 24420 26640 71449 41346 43457 27852 37301 31477 92099 48042 27017 91776 50174 27349 64673 31360 84687 32967 53939 83086 33946 34371 30111 40340 90913 54027 38234 30279 103170 37817 45989 96333 57939 29404 45767 14845 41164 76004 45863 35874 45138 91551 61178 140576 60692 113977 47593 279799 122037 31083 97825 35771 34032 178958 76355 58378 20339 20821 196153 38539 95618 16654 34224 19354 73802 24337 29208 51962 53747 99662 28292 20069 42654 51347 40057 108887 42565 108640 44243 29680 33199 53813 44259 36823 54410 24430 70698 79646 21880 35028 80523 109619 45976 111423 46823 20396 80227 53893 26329 31142 75550 90982 73367 26350 52400 58808 101598 48524 29516 54523 71445 21546 68006 15573 77834 29376 24862 26507 94752 39920 29442 42408 35865 12051 14470 97378 111840 31821 38963 100609 30382 39822 192710 99088 52597 74356 46829 24053 53752 37175 99579 24959 28326 45888 29396 41917 30903 47200 39959 49841 37244 55609 84000 62258 104447 36400 53482 68041 46832 31270 30427 105159 72844 89658 41585 35857 101317 31949 74472 49844 68646 74841 81685 27637 30114 40219 64234 46045 42757 29904 45582 33153 63452 43935 44306 27007 19304 108209 86583 38393 30026 36973 44707 119446 94790 91439 119075 78581 49522 35747 42827 47499 26700 40372 50833 15131 39344 29623 35205 51232 69812 118151 154753 41165 52499 114883 37120 61044 90146 33967 35881 37924 39174 59590 37039 31576 66895
2022-06-22 19980 32140 41540 50100 43370 43860 68830 26780 70040 128500 90910 25570 66990 59530 40370 61960 65480 82960 350600 36220 56880 50290 25680 26920 96050 21300 137000 43830 174900 50290 39860 103700 27030 50100 97840 171200 40980 111100 34350 33100 38590 33290 67250 63400 68160 45180 74040 35170 48370 129400 37230 59000 31220 100200 15330 62600 62780 37710 53900 132700 122900 34700 36430 32650 42050 66490 32100 23720 27250 162400 24500 186800 113500 17070 41420 126600 52420 38750 40870 28620 29850 87920 20440 109600 109200 36040 110600 121200 27770 43330 38320 51230 38740 29680 108700 42080 70240 33430 46820 14980 50210 98070 44880 28710 38370 43360 37220 31620 47800 34860 24440 26660 71520 41370 43490 27880 37320 31500 92170 48090 32740 91840 50210 27370 64730 31380 84750 32990 53980 83160 33980 34390 30130 40380 90970 54080 38270 30300 103300 37850 46030 96400 57990 29420 45800 17730 41210 76070 45910 35900 45180 91600 61230 140700 60730 114100 47630 280000 122100 31110 97910 35810 34060 179100 76400 58420 20360 20840 196300 38560 95690 16670 34250 23270 73870 24360 29230 52010 53780 99700 28320 24150 52300 51400 40090 109000 42600 108700 54300 29710 33220 53850 44290 36860 54450 24460 70760 79720 21900 35060 80570 109700 46020 111500 46850 20410 80260 53950 36100 31160 75600 91070 73430 31920 52440 58860 101700 48560 29530 54560 88800 21560 68070 15590 77870 29400 24880 26530 94810 39950 29470 42450 35890 12070 14490 97450 111900 31840 38990 100700 30410 39850 192900 99180 52630 74410 46870 24070 53820 37210 99700 24990 28350 45930 29430 41970 30930 47250 39990 49880 37270 55650 84090 62310 104500 36420 53530 68090 46870 31300 30450 105200 72900 89730 41640 35890 101400 31980 74530 49880 85200 74910 81730 27650 30140 40260 64280 46090 42800 29920 45620 33180 63490 43970 44330 32740 19320 108300 86640 38430 30050 45200 44760 119500 94850 91500 119200 78640 49570 35780 42870 47550 26730 40400 50880 15150 39380 29650 35240 51280 69860 118200 154900 41210 52540 115000 37150 61120 90200 33990 35910 46400 39220 59640 37070 31610 66970
2022-06-23 20000 32150 41570 50150 43390 43900 68880 26800 70070 128600 90960 25600 67040 59590 40400 62020 65520 83010 350800 36250 56900 50310 34590 26950 96090 21320 137100 43860 174900 50330 39890 103700 27050 69500 97920 171400 41020 111200 34370 33130 38620 33300 67280 88800 68190 45230 74100 35190 48410 186900 37260 82400 31240 100300 20260 62640 62820 37730 53950 132800 123000 34720 36470 32680 42080 66540 43720 23730 27260 162500 24520 187000 113500 17080 41450 126600 52460 38770 40890 28640 40520 87980 20450 109700 109300 36060 110600 121300 27800 43370 38360 51260 38760 29700 108800 42110 70300 33440 46870 15000 50240 98120 44910 28730 38390 43390 37250 31640 66100 34880 24460 26670 71580 41390 43520 27900 37350 31520 92230 48120 44670 91910 50240 27390 64770 31400 84800 33010 54020 83210 34010 34410 30150 40420 91020 54130 38290 30320 103300 37870 46080 96460 58030 29430 45830 23560 41250 76140 45940 35920 45210 91640 61280 140700 60760 114100 47660 280100 122200 31130 97980 35830 34080 179200 76440 58460 20370 20860 196400 38580 95740 16680 34270 31210 73920 24380 29250 52050 53810 99800 28340 32480 72600 51460 40110 109000 42630 108800 75500 29730 33240 53880 44330 36880 54490 24480 70810 79780 21920 35080 80610 109800 46060 111500 46880 20410 80290 54010 59100 31170 75650 91140 73500 43480 52460 58900 101700 48590 29550 54600 126100 21570 68130 15600 77900 29420 24890 26550 94860 39980 29490 42490 35920 12080 14500 97500 112000 31860 39020 100800 30430 39880 193000 99260 52670 74460 46900 24090 53870 37240 99800 25010 28380 45970 29460 42010 30950 47290 40020 49930 37300 55680 84150 62360 104600 36450 53570 68130 46910 31330 30470 105300 72940 89790 41670 35920 101500 32010 74580 49910 120900 74960 81780 27670 30160 40290 64330 46120 42840 29940 45650 33200 63530 44000 44350 44580 19330 108400 86690 38460 30070 62400 44800 119600 94890 91560 119300 78690 49610 35810 42910 47590 26750 40420 50930 15160 39410 29680 35270 51320 69920 118300 155100 41250 52570 115000 37190 61180 90250 34020 35930 64000 39250 59670 37090 31630 67020
2022-06-24 20010 32170 41600 50200 43410 43940 68930 26820 70100 128700 91010 25620 67080 59640 40420 62070 65570 83060 351000 36280 56930 50340 42410 26960 96130 21330 137200 43900 175000 50360 39920 103800 27060 86900 97990 171500 41060 111300 34390 33140 38650 33310 67320 112000 68230 45270 74160 35220 48450 241500 37280 103800 31260 100400 24550 62670 62870 37760 54000 132900 123100 34740 36510 32710 42110 66590 54140 23750 27280 162600 24540 187100 113600 17100 41480 126700 52500 38790 40920 28660 50020 88030 20470 109700 109400 36090 110700 121400 27820 43390 38400 51300 38790 29720 108900 42140 70360 33460 46900 15010 50280 98180 44940 28750 38420 43420 37290 31660 82800 34910 24480 26690 71630 41420 43540 27930 37370 31540 92280 48170 55400 91960 50280 27410 64820 31420 84860 33040 54070 83270 34050 34420 30180 40460 91070 54190 38310 30340 103400 37900 46120 96530 58080 29440 45850 28650 41280 76200 45980 35940 45250 91690 61330 140800 60790 114200 47690 280300 122200 31150 98040 35850 34100 179300 76480 58510 20380 20890 196500 38600 95790 16700 34290 38130 73970 24400 29270 52100 53840 99900 28360 39830 91000 51500 40140 109100 42660 108800 94900 29750 33260 53920 44360 36910 54530 24510 70860 79840 21930 35110 80650 109900 46110 111600 46900 20420 80330 54060 84500 31180 75690 91200 73550 53830 52490 58940 101800 48620 29570 54630 160900 21580 68190 15610 77930 29450 24900 26580 94900 40010 29510 42530 35950 12090 14510 97550 112000 31880 39040 100800 30450 39910 193100 99340 52700 74500 46940 24110 53930 37270 99800 25030 28400 46010 29490 42050 30970 47330 40040 49980 37320 55710 84230 62400 104700 36470 53620 68180 46960 31350 30490 105400 72980 89850 41720 35950 101500 32030 74640 49950 154000 75020 81820 27680 30190 40330 64370 46160 42880 29950 45690 33220 63560 44030 44380 55140 19350 108400 86740 38490 30090 78000 44850 119600 94940 91610 119300 78740 49650 35830 42950 47640 26770 40450 50970 15180 39430 29700 35300 51360 69970 118300 155200 41280 52600 115100 37220 61250 90290 34040 35940 80000 39290 59720 37110 31650 67080
2022-06-25 20030 32180 41630 50250 43430 43980 68980 26830 70130 128800 91050 25640 67130 59700 40450 62120 65610 83110 351100 36300 56940 50360 49240 26980 96180 21340 137300 43940 175100 50400 39950 103900 27080 102500 98060 171600 41100 111400 34420 33160 38680 33320 67350 132900 68260 45320 74210 35240 48490 291500 37310 123100 31270 100400 28280 62710 62910 37790 54050 133000 123200 34760 36540 32750 42130 66640 63400 23770 27300 162800 24560 187300 113700 17110 41510 126800 52540 38810 40950 28680 58420 88080 20490 109800 109500 36120 110800 121400 27850 43430 38440 51340 38820 29740 109000 42170 70430 33490 46950 15030 50310 98240 44970 28770 38440 43460 37330 31670 97500 34940 24500 26700 71670 41440 43570 27960 37390 31560 92340 48200 64980 92020 50310 27440 64860 31440 84920 33060 54110 83330 34080 34440 30200 40500 91130 54240 38340 30370 103500 37920 46170 96600 58120 29450 45880 33090 41320 76260 46010 35970 45280 91730 61380 140900 60820 114300 47710 280400 122300 31180 98110 35870 34130 179400 76520 58550 20400 20910 196600 38620 95850 16710 34310 44130 74030 24420 29290 52140 53870 99900 28370 46260 107500 51550 40170 109200 42690 108900 112200 29780 33290 53940 44380 36940 54560 24530 70920 79900 21950 35130 80690 110000 46150 111700 46930 20430 80360 54110 109900 31190 75740 91270 73610 63030 52520 58980 101800 48650 29590 54660 192200 21590 68240 15620 77960 29460 24920 26600 94950 40040 29530 42560 35970 12090 14520 97600 112100 31900 39070 100900 30470 39940 193300 99420 52730 74550 46980 24120 53990 37300 99900 25060 28430 46040 29520 42090 30990 47380 40070 50020 37350 55740 84290 62440 104800 36490 53660 68220 47000 31370 30510 105500 73030 89900 41760 35980 101600 32060 74690 49990 184000 75070 81860 27690 30220 40360 64410 46200 42920 29970 45730 33250 63600 44060 44400 64460 19360 108500 86800 38530 30110 92000 44890 119700 95000 91670 119400 78780 49690 35860 43000 47680 26790 40480 51020 15190 39460 29720 35330 51400 70010 118400 155300 41320 52640 115200 37250 61310 90340 34070 35960 94100 39330 59760 37130 31670 67140
2022-06-26 20050 32200 41660 50300 43450 44010 69030 26850 70170 128900 91100 25660 67170 59760 40480 62180 65660 83180 351300 36330 56970 50380 53820 27000 96230 21350 137400 43990 175200 50440 39990 103900 27090 113000 98150 171700 41150 111500 34440 33180 38710 33330 67400 147100 68300 45370 74270 35270 48540 325600 37330 136200 31290 100500 30830 62750 62960 37810 54100 133100 123300 34790 36580 32780 42160 66700 69740 23780 27310 162900 24580 187400 113700 17120 41550 126900 52580 38830 40980 28700 64140 88140 20510 109900 109600 36150 110900 121500 27880 43460 38480 51380 38850 29760 109100 42200 70490 33510 46990 15040 50350 98290 45000 28790 38470 43490 37370 31690 107600 34970 24520 26720 71730 41470 43600 27990 37420 31580 92420 48240 71560 92090 50350 27460 64900 31470 84980 33080 54150 83400 34120 34460 30220 40540 91190 54300 38370 30390 103600 37950 46220 96660 58180 29470 45910 36120 41360 76320 46050 35990 45320 91780 61430 141000 60850 114400 47760 280600 122300 31210 98190 35910 34150 179500 76560 58600 20410 20930 196700 38640 95920 16720 34340 48130 74080 24440 29320 52190 53900 100000 28400 50620 118600 51600 40200 109200 42720 108900 123900 29800 33310 53970 44420 36970 54600 24550 70980 79960 21960 35160 80740 110100 46210 111700 46950 20440 80390 54160 135400 31200 75780 91350 73680 69310 52550 59030 101900 48680 29610 54710 213500 21610 68300 15630 78000 29490 24930 26620 95000 40080 29550 42600 36000 12110 14530 97660 112100 31920 39100 101000 30490 39970 193400 99510 52760 74600 47020 24140 54050 37330 100000 25080 28450 46080 29560 42140 31020 47420 40090 50070 37370 55770 84370 62480 104800 36520 53710 68260 47040 31400 30540 105500 73070 89970 41800 36010 101700 32090 74750 50030 204400 75130 81910 27710 30250 40390 64450 46240 42970 29990 45770 33280 63640 44100 44440 70760 19380 108600 86850 38560 30140 101500 44940 119800 95040 91730 119500 78840 49730 35880 43040 47730 26820 40500 51070 15210 39490 29750 35370 51440 70060 118500 155500 41360 52680 115300 37290 61380 90390 34090 35990 103600 39370 59810 37160 31690 67210
2022-06-27 20070 32220 41690 50350 43480 44060 69080 26880 70200 129000 91150 25690 67210 59830 40510 62230 65710 83250 351500 36350 56990 50420 55930 27020 96280 21370 137500 44030 175300 50480 40030 104000 27110 117800 98230 171800 41190 111700 34470 33210 38750 33340 67440 153700 68340 45430 74340 35290 48590 341500 37360 142400 31320 100600 32080 62790 63010 37840 54160 133200 123400 34810 36620 32820 42180 66760 72820 23800 27330 163000 24610 187600 113800 17130 41580 127000 52620 38860 41010 28720 66880 88190 20530 109900 109700 36190 110900 121600 27910 43500 38520 51430 38880 29780 109200 42240 70570 33540 47040 15060 50390 98360 45040 28810 38490 43530 37410 31710 112200 35010 24550 26740 71790 41500 43630 28010 37440 31610 92500 48280 74800 92160 50390 27490 64960 31490 85040 33110 54200 83470 34150 34480 30240 40580 91250 54350 38400 30410 103600 37980 46270 96740 58230 29480 45950 37590 41410 76390 46090 36010 45360 91830 61470 141000 60890 114500 47790 280800 122400 31240 98280 35930 34180 179700 76600 58650 20430 20950 196800 38660 96000 16730 34360 49940 74140 24460 29340 52230 53940 100100 28420 52680 123800 51660 40230 109300 42750 109000 129400 29830 33330 54010 44460 37000 54640 24580 71050 80020 21980 35190 80800 110200 46260 111800 46980 20450 80430 54220 156500 31210 75830 91420 73740 72350 52590 59090 101900 48710 29630 54760 223300 21620 68360 15640 78040 29510 24940 26650 95050 40110 29580 42640 36030 12120 14550 97710 112200 31940 39130 101000 30510 40010 193600 99600 52790 74650 47070 24160 54120 37360 100100 25100 28480 46130 29590 42190 31050 47460 40120 50120 37400 55810 84450 62530 104900 36550 53760 68320 47080 31420 30560 105600 73120 90030 41840 36040 101700 32130 74820 50080 213900 75190 81950 27720 30280 40430 64500 46280 43020 30020 45810 33300 63670 44140 44470 73700 19390 108700 86910 38600 30160 106000 44990 119800 95100 91810 119600 78900 49780 35910 43090 47780 26840 40530 51120 15220 39520 29780 35400 51500 70120 118500 155600 41410 52720 115400 37330 61450 90440 34120 36010 108000 39410 59860 37180 31720 67270
2022-06-28 20090 32240 41730 50410 43500 44100 69130 26900 70240 129200 91190 25720 67260 59890 40540 62290 65760 83310 351700 36380 57010 50450 57240 27040 96330 21380 137600 44070 175400 50520 40060 104100 27130 120700 98320 171900 41240 111800 34500 33240 38780 33350 67480 157800 68370 45480 74410 35310 48630 351400 37390 146300 31340 100700 32910 62830 63070 37870 54210 133300 123500 34840 36670 32850 42210 66820 74850 23820 27350 163200 24630 187700 113900 17150 41620 127100 52660 38880 41040 28740 68660 88250 20550 110000 109800 36230 111000 121700 27940 43540 38570 51480 38910 29810 109200 42270 70640 33560 47090 15070 50430 98420 45080 28840 38520 43560 37450 31740 115200 35040 24570 26750 71850 41520 43670 28040 37470 31630 92580 48330 76950 92230 50430 27510 65010 31510 85110 33130 54250 83530 34180 34500 30270 40620 91310 54410 38430 30430 103700 38010 46320 96820 58270 29490 45980 38560 41450 76450 46140 36040 45410 91880 61530 141100 60930 114600 47830 281000 122500 31270 98370 35960 34200 179800 76640 58700 20440 20980 196900 38680 96060 16750 34380 51050 74190 24480 29370 52280 53970 100100 28440 54000 127000 51720 40250 109400 42780 109100 132800 29850 33350 54050 44490 37030 54680 24600 71110 80080 21990 35220 80850 110300 46310 111800 47010 20460 80470 54270 176900 31220 75880 91500 73820 74330 52620 59130 102000 48740 29650 54810 229300 21630 68430 15660 78070 29540 24950 26670 95100 40140 29600 42690 36060 12130 14560 97770 112300 31960 39170 101100 30530 40040 193700 99690 52830 74700 47110 24180 54190 37390 100200 25130 28510 46170 29620 42230 31070 47510 40150 50170 37420 55850 84530 62580 105000 36580 53810 68370 47130 31450 30580 105700 73170 90090 41890 36080 101800 32160 74880 50120 219900 75260 82000 27740 30310 40470 64540 46320 43060 30040 45850 33330 63720 44180 44500 75570 19410 108800 86960 38630 30190 108900 45030 119900 95150 91870 119700 78960 49830 35940 43140 47830 26860 40570 51180 15240 39550 29800 35440 51540 70180 118600 155800 41450 52770 115500 37370 61520 90490 34150 36040 110700 39450 59910 37210 31740 67330

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.