COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-07-28 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-07-28

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-07-28

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-06-2112-272021-07-082021-07-062021-07-062021-06-222021-07-14 --07-212021-03-252021-07-072021-07-112021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-142021-07-112021-07-042021-07-112021-07-102021-07-072021-07-062021-07-062021-07-14 --2021-07-1112-292021-07-0812-272021-07-0712-072021-07-072021-05-102021-07-102021-01-012021-07-072021-07-072021-07-0712-272021-07-142021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-172021-07-062021-07-072021-07-122021-07-0512-302021-07-062021-06-272021-07-072021-06-202021-07-082021-07-072021-06-192021-06-292021-07-072021-07-092021-07-07 --2021-07-0710-282021-07-072021-07-06 --2021-07-172021-07-062021-07-082021-07-072021-07-142021-07-072021-07-062021-06-222021-06-202021-07-06 --2021-07-062021-07-062021-07-142021-07-072021-07-072021-07-022021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-112021-07-072021-07-052021-07-082021-07-062021-07-062021-01-022021-07-0812-212021-07-072021-07-142021-07-142021-07-0712-222021-06-212021-07-1107-212021-07-082021-07-072021-06-212021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-06-132021-07-062021-06-222021-07-062021-07-062021-07-142021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-132021-07-082021-07-042021-07-05 --2021-06-232021-07-082021-07-142021-07-112021-06-202021-07-142021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-012021-07-0610-042021-07-072021-07-082021-07-142021-07-072021-07-072021-07-092021-06-222021-07-072021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-092021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-07-142021-07-072021-07-042021-06-272021-07-112021-07-142021-07-082021-07-072021-07-042021-06-212021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-142021-07-072021-06-2012-212021-07-1712-212021-07-072021-07-082021-07-102021-07-132021-07-072021-07-102021-07-082021-07-0712-272021-07-062021-07-082021-07-062021-01-032021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-0712-2112-262021-07-082021-07-102021-07-142021-07-072021-07-062021-07-142021-07-142021-06-292021-07-1012-082021-07-082021-07-062021-07-152021-07-0712-212021-07-142021-07-072021-06-202021-07-072021-07-0712-062021-07-042021-03-182021-07-082021-07-072021-06-292021-07-072021-07-142021-07-0812-2707-212021-07-112021-07-072021-07-052021-07-08 --10-042021-07-102021-07-142021-07-072021-07-042021-07-052021-07-072021-07-142021-07-042021-07-142021-07-072021-07-082021-07-062021-07-062021-06-292021-06-222021-07-072021-07-072021-06-222021-07-142021-07-072021-01-012021-07-062021-07-172021-07-072021-07-152021-07-062021-07-142021-07-0710-042021-07-0512-272021-07-072021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-06-282021-07-082021-07-082021-07-062021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-062021-07-0612-232021-07-072021-06-272021-07-082021-07-112021-07-0707-212021-07-072021-07-142021-07-072021-07-0812-292021-07-062021-07-0612-282021-07-062021-07-072021-07-122021-07-082021-07-0710-042021-07-142021-07-062021-07-062021-07-112021-07-072021-07-122021-06-272021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-06-202021-07-072021-07-062021-07-052021-07-072021-07-102021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-142021-07-072021-07-072021-06-222021-07-082021-07-082021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-142021-07-072021-07-142021-07-072021-07-0712-062021-07-172021-07-072021-06-282021-07-072021-07-072021-07-092021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-06-212021-07-072021-07-072021-07-1210-042021-07-072021-07-062021-06-232021-07-062021-07-142021-07-072021-07-062021-07-072021-07-112021-07-072021-06-292021-07-072021-07-102021-07-102021-07-062021-07-082021-06-292021-07-072021-07-072021-07-062021-07-082021-07-05
Peak daily increment 138 102 47 109 98 84 108 115 106 120 92 60 101 55 92 260 266 47 134 149 136 202 104 177 1249 69 157 154 95 59 208 41 484 103 453 99 107 180 65 51 226 599 65 250 90 73 93 122 159 32 152 61 155 70 62 93 108 24 96 218 41 115 163 73 251 238 79 70 64 114 452 20 136 62 110 47 313 38 590 348 49 107 227 118 132 89 53 88 246 45 170 380 161 42 255 119 186 191 296 49 89 78 57 117 88 112 66 67 289 71 88 57 87 21 79 151 99 55 98 81 63 42 46 240 59 65 53 79 264 120 631 94 53 63 108 161 68 23 227 76 80 155 57 151 61 109 145 66 139 44 65 154 77 79 69 86 192 77 83 139 96 71 74 60 18 62 188 82 69 70 258 91 265 311 296 105 674 284 49 205 81 57 102 727 107 116 40 44 422 80 174 38 71 105 120 42 40 94 186 77 261 97 185 47 62 28 23 91 114 375 98 155 35 212 186 74 88 225 77 389 95 37 191 222 71 89 139 302 75 258 138 30 241 3 135 23 55 113 94 317 203 41 106 82 122 279 58 104 150 56 52 132 67 202 72 68 48 204 77 47 111 65 18 21 249 252 87 83 54 194 65 97 484 24 171 62 269 43 42 47 69 69 319 44 38 64 64 460 61 66 77 89 102 78 293 194 146 243 68 119 136 84 74 53 43 231 321 234 74 67 410 57 139 97 49 148 208 83 57 74 133 112 87 38 38 76 103 101 124 101 36 220 179 59 60 27 76 339 183 155 303 194 106 69 65 80 26 101 83 19 79 92 45 103 62 70 134 361 313 59 79 238 56 96 177 93 61 62 71 117 115 69 133
Days since peak 37 213 20 22 22 36 14 372 125 21 17 21 21 22 14 17 24 17 18 21 22 22 14 17 211 20 213 21 233 21 79 18 208 21 21 21 213 14 21 22 21 21 11 22 21 16 23 210 22 31 21 38 20 21 39 29 21 19 21 21 273 21 22 11 22 20 21 14 21 22 36 38 22 22 22 14 21 21 26 21 21 21 17 21 23 20 22 22 207 20 219 21 14 14 21 218 37 17 372 20 21 37 22 21 21 45 22 36 22 22 14 21 21 21 22 15 20 24 23 35 20 14 17 38 14 21 21 22 27 22 297 21 20 14 21 21 19 36 21 20 20 21 19 19 22 21 14 21 24 31 17 14 20 21 24 37 21 21 22 14 21 38 219 11 219 21 20 18 15 21 18 20 21 213 22 20 22 206 23 21 21 21 219 214 20 18 14 21 22 14 14 29 18 232 20 22 13 21 219 14 21 38 21 21 234 24 132 20 21 29 21 14 20 213 372 17 21 23 20 297 18 14 21 24 23 21 14 24 14 21 20 22 22 29 36 21 21 36 14 21 208 22 11 21 13 22 14 21 297 23 213 21 22 23 21 30 20 20 22 21 22 21 21 22 20 22 22 217 21 31 20 17 21 372 21 14 21 20 211 22 22 212 22 21 16 20 21 297 14 22 22 17 21 16 31 21 21 21 20 21 21 22 21 21 38 21 22 23 21 18 23 21 21 21 14 21 21 36 20 20 21 22 21 21 14 21 14 21 21 234 11 21 30 21 21 19 21 23 21 21 21 21 20 21 21 21 37 21 21 16 297 21 22 35 22 14 21 22 21 17 21 29 21 18 18 22 20 29 21 21 22 20 23
Last total 11547 8695 4118 7360 10938 5792 10795 8057 2472 18117 11141 12169 11284 14671 4979 26446 37291 27780 5705 20714 11399 11106 12763 17848 30523 26679 129825 9180 25438 14555 6539 7354 38067 6264 33835 9530 64519 13079 7758 34328 8536 14004 21870 46073 7443 30325 8469 10907 9876 13601 23768 14564 20318 8139 19210 8703 12402 29678 10935 11715 10008 9877 22102 2156 16488 16376 6030 11273 29317 29601 8082 6859 5989 11871 33014 3497 15042 395 5628 5091 6945 23487 3762 57482 32195 4124 10063 37829 11593 11276 12483 5555 6071 24175 4178 16615 33467 16077 8985 33106 5455 12721 37806 8962 3986 6338 7730 6362 11411 8619 5969 6315 7376 25575 11810 10847 7829 8285 3749 9644 33892 15050 7045 9894 7800 9540 6772 6529 7174 18990 11819 9411 4321 7203 21823 11390 59612 9447 5028 12116 7268 27542 9401 4285 27838 14693 6245 17756 6844 25783 9666 11145 24916 5882 12533 7692 8785 30917 8959 10225 7277 6363 32293 8082 7649 29594 10189 11532 4545 9038 2774 7975 20411 12148 7501 9008 25756 15216 45115 21669 32972 13318 89432 44289 6363 27652 8661 8993 9634 63080 24898 15801 4731 3858 74781 10250 30348 3741 4915 7080 19911 3395 4222 9532 14799 9438 18604 6475 25109 5821 4869 2386 12428 8478 10161 36721 11153 40733 12522 15573 8666 3492 8096 15588 8610 7042 30031 12416 3778 14540 20701 6217 8459 21446 26686 9408 39887 11764 5981 32060 146 13326 4129 12556 7969 18366 16121 18484 5289 18589 14190 37341 15235 7658 12134 15247 23094 6650 14586 3835 29538 8029 9308 5940 27152 8850 6848 10308 9197 2223 2526 33855 41415 7758 4380 6835 31566 7188 9070 57720 363 19264 17650 21328 7411 6334 6098 7869 9145 23080 2925 6362 9280 6403 25096 6982 6409 8049 11726 7491 10471 18809 20488 18054 29864 9147 10928 21868 10832 7514 7425 4904 29823 23094 26163 7201 5608 33761 6702 19659 15411 19223 15230 25680 7918 6902 5087 14598 12121 7675 4613 12465 8314 20319 10332 7263 7238 1780 35873 24353 7378 6547 8399 7073 37207 31031 29910 30820 23803 10733 9915 7496 9803 6194 10441 8535 1661 6580 11801 6091 11934 5814 8131 18985 41915 24676 6730 10744 32705 8375 11011 29630 8485 6967 13587 8148 13938 9993 7196 17218
Last daily increment 61 23 11 30 47 18 115 90 13 137 41 65 41 57 29 60 142 121 20 59 63 76 86 79 331 98 496 59 33 95 6 56 74 15 342 51 226 45 57 144 22 24 159 372 65 123 48 36 64 50 69 21 119 52 79 36 65 66 23 8 24 83 132 7 87 57 67 50 113 120 42 49 33 37 104 17 75 0 21 25 42 242 16 208 150 20 40 136 40 64 56 33 15 91 29 111 156 200 35 170 31 34 127 15 30 70 19 37 88 55 29 34 12 155 54 96 25 51 10 43 112 45 25 54 117 30 60 20 60 99 13 29 25 31 108 59 168 56 33 42 38 117 39 4 127 48 32 96 50 90 46 57 101 33 39 35 52 97 46 44 20 33 94 54 27 76 53 24 36 45 1 23 107 47 70 41 211 62 208 85 170 55 459 194 29 110 40 147 88 216 92 58 15 10 273 79 132 17 30 10 72 27 43 59 112 90 99 25 125 32 9 8 14 69 70 172 27 127 34 164 38 32 42 100 58 87 102 81 33 62 95 30 46 106 117 107 195 46 22 86 0 58 14 23 20 102 149 98 16 52 58 107 90 38 46 36 24 15 72 29 92 32 18 27 158 42 22 66 35 14 12 161 161 26 11 42 120 38 52 402 2 82 33 130 65 27 21 54 41 137 36 26 49 27 99 72 23 48 38 36 38 68 180 65 129 44 52 88 39 29 29 26 119 143 76 43 46 135 28 72 46 22 105 105 26 22 57 61 33 38 45 45 40 69 39 91 15 17 138 84 59 47 17 56 167 145 123 138 86 44 21 31 56 38 43 53 13 23 59 54 51 38 46 81 109 170 50 53 165 39 56 121 31 28 4 47 49 65 35 87
Last week 281 181 136 200 236 105 578 503 87 630 344 362 207 310 155 415 906 729 161 341 314 366 524 443 1969 584 3027 277 244 603 64 234 562 150 1600 254 1503 278 228 829 166 185 805 1628 258 735 261 243 275 251 449 157 675 298 534 208 311 378 168 131 196 537 701 45 432 391 291 258 823 763 240 263 166 273 659 73 460 35 245 193 219 1210 130 1487 920 120 229 841 296 361 281 160 255 509 158 682 1073 806 193 804 176 206 862 136 139 357 103 182 408 299 158 207 92 910 247 379 155 350 59 279 607 350 175 254 545 183 237 124 305 504 225 172 127 239 615 381 966 355 167 257 251 680 245 99 669 295 214 523 192 634 246 344 618 190 291 183 251 606 256 260 188 233 653 226 204 608 336 174 143 263 44 220 622 312 305 166 1046 340 1055 473 855 296 2453 980 168 710 205 512 528 1429 492 366 118 83 1557 411 757 90 187 62 450 162 162 299 681 462 709 128 637 156 83 84 130 336 416 947 244 759 195 838 199 222 261 610 242 321 594 402 170 496 676 173 246 559 794 432 1049 334 117 687 6 388 84 179 132 468 1003 564 164 378 320 657 569 200 288 213 223 99 458 125 614 194 143 142 832 249 143 419 161 89 84 901 902 267 117 207 679 194 263 2076 17 459 275 627 301 138 147 285 210 883 165 117 258 162 542 296 210 205 247 262 267 510 872 413 806 232 297 536 238 204 190 129 710 827 587 223 240 885 120 409 265 227 569 610 166 166 306 368 281 247 183 204 252 433 322 426 96 177 768 571 233 209 105 232 1094 728 696 891 585 257 214 187 269 189 274 281 76 165 329 223 271 213 245 562 859 1094 254 293 839 149 348 639 222 237 199 273 358 334 228 446
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-2712-2612-2707-2112-2112-26 --12-2112-2112-2712-0712-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-01-022021-01-1111-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-13 --2021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-22 --12-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-2112-2612-2212-3009-2710-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0612-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-2212-2812-2512-2212-212021-01-0312-2112-2112-3007-2107-2112-26 --12-2912-2612-2712-2112-2411-0212-2712-2812-2712-2712-2112-2512-2112-2112-2810-272021-02-2510-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-27 --12-2412-2907-2112-2412-2111-0907-2112-2607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2312-2712-2207-2112-2512-2512-2510-1710-2912-2607-2112-2112-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-2712-2812-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-2212-2907-2112-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-2806-1112-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2210-2709-2912-292021-01-0611-0211-0212-2112-2712-2711-0210-1209-2812-2712-2212-2112-3111-022021-01-0212-22 --2021-01-07 --12-2112-2112-2112-2210-1212-2112-3107-2112-2212-27 --07-2112-0712-2812-2911-0211-0312-2712-0609-24 --12-0810-1410-2612-2612-2707-2111-0112-2112-3011-0412-2111-0312-2712-212021-01-0111-0212-2911-0210-22 --12-2712-2812-2607-212021-01-0611-0211-0212-0611-0212-2912-2112-312021-01-0512-2207-2112-0610-1112-2112-2710-1912-1310-1112-1310-1812-3012-2810-1312-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3107-2112-2112-2812-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2212-2110-2512-26 --2021-01-0412-2211-0907-2112-2112-2212-202021-01-0312-2812-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-2510-2712-2207-2112-2812-2711-0112-2112-2312-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-01-0212-2612-302021-01-0412-2712-2112-2612-2112-2112-2212-2212-27 -- --12-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2212-2112-2712-2612-2112-1307-2111-0212-0707-2112-2212-2812-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-2112-3012-2611-02
Previous peak daily increment 605 366 61 88 97 285 134 82 260 170 110 176 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 128 109 277 233 271 426 1200 75 166 98 58 234 50 355 142 434 228 524 155 233 307 1167 107 508 94 186 62 72 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 354 172 194 175 111 303 292 268 58 197 249 283 59 91 71 65 1221 82 243 35 53 94 288 34 551 288 38 181 598 151 69 189 72 58 164 27 206 248 187 118 322 216 684 536 60 52 370 76 160 106 184 51 226 206 102 163 146 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 457 90 74 94 661 150 125 54 42 127 82 1697 92 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 218 59 201 57 401 172 103 338 103 106 136 120 476 101 159 52 139 442 57 115 452 143 83 239 134 44 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1522 469 104 457 71 229 71 480 274 200 90 36 2166 92 419 46 298 37 62 153 109 105 213 296 361 79 65 191 105 63 2512 85 723 190 91 23 53 137 105 55 969 105 58 123 106 41 56 277 158 121 1362 90 68 257 125 44 108 227 154 135 347 43 156 174 623 105 81 176 445 286 41 188 39 194 138 65 96 198 80 85 67 174 36 25 417 448 80 147 82 407 65 131 557 209 244 167 97 218 110 102 67 181 42 86 73 839 94 79 108 80 66 102 115 248 293 451 131 156 222 94 55 112 144 189 138 197 67 42 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 56 109 46 140 349 90 44 138 123 360 138 51 559 151 90 110 120 84 245 329 449 390 227 260 138 117 160 65 154 86 29 296 165 42 369 67 115 217 319 264 83 148 431 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 71 69 573
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 -2 -7 0 3 13 -11 2 -7 -17 -8 3 -2 9 -1 -30 -13 2 -14 -12 3 307 -1 55 -9 -14 17 2 31 -8 31 -4 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -10 -16 -1 34 3 0 8 2 -17 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 -1 -7 -11 -3 -9 -14 -3 -6 0 4 -11 -4 -9 1 1 2 -30 -1 -13 -19 -5 -8 -4 -11 -5 1 -7 0 53 -3 34 1 -28 -14 -4 -2 -3 -6 -3 -7 -3 -6 -12 -2 -5 2 -1 -5 1 -17 -6 -5 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 0 4 -5 1 -7 -5 -8 -7 2 -7 -13 -8 -2 -8 -25 -21 1 -27 -25 -2 -5 1 -12 -2 -17 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -19 -9 -1 2 -1 -27 1 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 0 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 20 2 -5 40 120 1 -18 0 -9 21 58 7 -22 0 0 27 1 -45 -13 2 -10 -3 -10 39 2 5 -15 0 -3 0 7 -10 1 15 -14 4 2 23 -5 -12 -3 -7 -7 5 -6 -16 5 1 -7 -3 -7 -4 6 -5 1 6 1 1 3 1 5 -74 37 0 0 -8 1 -1 -51 -13 -2 1 -20 -4 0 3 0 1 -6 0 -2 0 1 -14 -6 -8 2 -1 -4 -4 -20 -45 3 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -4 24 -23 3 -5 -4 -7 -11 -5 -1 2 -5 -10 2 -2 -3 -16 -2 -6 -39 -13 -2 1 -1 -4 4 -5 -7 -12 1 -4 -13 -40 3 -9 7 -8 -5 -6 -12 -3 -7 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 5 0 -18 -3 1 -18 16 -9 -22 -4 -6 -4 4 -12 -13 -5 1 -7 0 -2 1 -4 -2 -1 -12 7 6 -36 -9 -5 -68 0 -11 -19 -2 -6 2 1 0 -3 -6 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-07-29 to 2021-08-04

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-07-28 11547 8695 4118 7360 10938 5792 10795 8057 2472 18117 11141 12169 11284 14671 4979 26446 37291 27780 5705 20714 11399 11106 12763 17848 30523 26679 129825 9180 25438 14555 6539 7354 38067 6264 33835 9530 64519 13079 7758 34328 8536 14004 21870 46073 7443 30325 8469 10907 9876 13601 23768 14564 20318 8139 19210 8703 12402 29678 10935 11715 10008 9877 22102 2156 16488 16376 6030 11273 29317 29601 8082 6859 5989 11871 33014 3497 15042 395 5628 5091 6945 23487 3762 57482 32195 4124 10063 37829 11593 11276 12483 5555 6071 24175 4178 16615 33467 16077 8985 33106 5455 12721 37806 8962 3986 6338 7730 6362 11411 8619 5969 6315 7376 25575 11810 10847 7829 8285 3749 9644 33892 15050 7045 9894 7800 9540 6772 6529 7174 18990 11819 9411 4321 7203 21823 11390 59612 9447 5028 12116 7268 27542 9401 4285 27838 14693 6245 17756 6844 25783 9666 11145 24916 5882 12533 7692 8785 30917 8959 10225 7277 6363 32293 8082 7649 29594 10189 11532 4545 9038 2774 7975 20411 12148 7501 9008 25756 15216 45115 21669 32972 13318 89432 44289 6363 27652 8661 8993 9634 63080 24898 15801 4731 3858 74781 10250 30348 3741 4915 7080 19911 3395 4222 9532 14799 9438 18604 6475 25109 5821 4869 2386 12428 8478 10161 36721 11153 40733 12522 15573 8666 3492 8096 15588 8610 7042 30031 12416 3778 14540 20701 6217 8459 21446 26686 9408 39887 11764 5981 32060 146 13326 4129 12556 7969 18366 16121 18484 5289 18589 14190 37341 15235 7658 12134 15247 23094 6650 14586 3835 29538 8029 9308 5940 27152 8850 6848 10308 9197 2223 2526 33855 41415 7758 4380 6835 31566 7188 9070 57720 363 19264 17650 21328 7411 6334 6098 7869 9145 23080 2925 6362 9280 6403 25096 6982 6409 8049 11726 7491 10471 18809 20488 18054 29864 9147 10928 21868 10832 7514 7425 4904 29823 23094 26163 7201 5608 33761 6702 19659 15411 19223 15230 25680 7918 6902 5087 14598 12121 7675 4613 12465 8314 20319 10332 7263 7238 1780 35873 24353 7378 6547 8399 7073 37207 31031 29910 30820 23803 10733 9915 7496 9803 6194 10441 8535 1661 6580 11801 6091 11934 5814 8131 18985 41915 24676 6730 10744 32705 8375 11011 29630 8485 6967 13587 8148 13938 9993 7196 17218
2021-07-29 11660 8729 4137 7423 11170 5811 10890 8155 2479 18210 11210 12310 11370 14780 5015 26520 37560 27930 5742 20960 11460 11180 12960 17940 31030 26780 130800 9237 25610 14680 6549 7402 38180 6338 34180 9570 64790 13130 7813 34510 8556 14100 22030 46580 7483 30450 8516 10960 9950 13730 23940 14600 20450 8192 19330 8786 12450 29840 10960 11750 10020 9950 22240 2166 16580 16420 6076 11330 29640 29790 8136 6970 6011 11920 33190 3510 15120 399 5674 5126 7012 23850 3783 57950 32550 4150 10120 38040 11620 11550 12550 5582 6209 24360 4209 16720 33650 16300 9020 33440 5474 12740 37920 8987 4005 6400 7741 6445 11490 8666 6023 6371 7410 25760 11940 10980 7915 8354 3764 9690 34050 15170 7085 9980 7899 9577 6817 6556 7217 19080 11870 9477 4345 7263 21920 11450 60090 9530 5066 12170 7399 27680 9452 4301 27950 14760 6301 17850 6889 25910 9720 11180 25060 5916 12560 7758 8837 30990 9009 10280 7312 6399 32410 8126 7688 29800 10280 11690 4562 9086 2783 8015 20520 12220 7567 9069 25890 15290 45340 21760 33130 13540 90640 44580 6400 27850 8742 9082 9720 63440 24990 15990 4760 3953 75070 10340 30490 3766 5006 7091 20000 3413 4222 9570 14910 9520 18730 6510 25220 5851 4886 2395 12450 8545 10250 36900 11180 40860 12560 15710 8701 3492 8153 15770 8669 7095 30190 12500 3823 14750 20890 6232 8479 21640 26890 9510 40290 11890 6006 32560 147 13400 4144 12670 7982 18490 16310 18800 5321 18760 14260 37450 15350 7686 12190 15290 23190 6666 14670 3863 29660 8066 9327 5980 27370 8893 6882 10380 9225 2238 2543 34100 41710 7819 4388 6954 31960 7236 9129 58160 364 19450 17740 21470 7417 6358 6125 7927 9181 23200 2961 6404 9326 6449 25190 7036 6429 8090 11760 7549 10530 18900 20610 18150 30010 9191 10990 22100 11010 7670 7460 4925 30310 23250 26340 7257 5647 33930 6729 19740 15630 19260 15350 26050 7971 6930 5150 14780 12270 7717 4666 12510 8369 20400 10430 7345 7258 1780 36000 24550 7450 6588 8420 7123 37890 31270 30080 30980 24010 10810 9960 7534 9840 6227 10500 8625 1676 6624 11870 6132 12040 5868 8174 19090 42130 24990 6782 10810 32920 8425 11050 29870 8547 7057 13630 8216 14000 10050 7235 17260
2021-07-30 11730 8777 4175 7609 11300 5837 10990 8270 2484 18270 11350 12390 11410 14850 5071 26620 37750 28140 5806 21070 11570 11300 13070 18080 31370 26890 131400 9341 25710 14880 6559 7455 38230 6375 34480 9642 65240 13210 7867 34640 8603 14150 22120 46870 7508 30670 8594 11040 10100 13800 24020 14630 20620 8241 19530 8843 12510 29940 11030 11780 10050 10040 22440 2183 16750 16490 6126 11410 29820 29910 8221 7026 6041 12000 33320 3524 15240 399 5733 5208 7059 24120 3817 58250 32740 4200 10220 38420 11660 11700 12650 5615 6290 24470 4255 16770 33990 16470 9051 33620 5481 12780 38040 9026 4027 6471 7750 6490 11580 8726 6059 6414 7429 26050 12010 11070 7958 8471 3801 9760 34270 15240 7169 10160 7976 9653 6866 6575 7261 19150 11950 9515 4388 7384 22040 11550 60370 9591 5125 12240 7465 27900 9529 4330 28110 14860 6428 17970 6950 26070 9790 11210 25280 5954 12640 7806 8902 31080 9080 10360 7340 6434 32580 8191 7746 29930 10330 11780 4576 9126 2800 8053 20660 12330 7654 9101 26050 15390 45680 21910 33360 13660 91370 44770 6476 27990 8798 9158 9790 63710 25120 16090 4813 3998 75250 10420 30690 3834 5066 7100 20120 3432 4284 9626 15020 9610 18980 6578 25350 5899 4916 2407 12460 8631 10360 37120 11250 40980 12590 15820 8734 3572 8244 15860 8766 7122 30300 12610 3854 14870 21010 6274 8526 21760 27410 9600 40540 11960 6040 32840 152 13510 4162 12730 8012 18570 16610 18990 5377 18870 14350 37560 15590 7727 12280 15330 23250 6683 14800 3916 29710 8135 9356 6003 27520 8960 6952 10460 9263 2251 2570 34240 41890 7919 4418 7029 32220 7325 9225 58510 364 19570 17820 21550 7448 6395 6169 8004 9230 23390 3017 6428 9382 6555 25310 7090 6449 8147 11800 7651 10580 19060 20710 18310 30240 9254 11090 22230 11110 7754 7511 4961 30590 23530 26710 7295 5685 34190 6772 19860 15760 19290 15560 26280 7998 6975 5245 14870 12360 7797 4699 12550 8454 20460 10500 7461 7299 1815 36150 24660 7499 6645 8461 7186 38270 31420 30310 31240 24130 10990 10050 7598 9880 6244 10590 8672 1692 6660 11920 6176 12100 5964 8216 19230 42210 25220 6853 10900 33050 8526 11100 30020 8711 7107 13730 8329 14110 10140 7294 17310
2021-07-31 11790 8818 4204 7739 11400 5860 11080 8372 2491 18340 11460 12450 11450 14900 5117 26700 37900 28320 5857 21160 11660 11390 13150 18190 31620 27000 131800 9422 25780 15040 6569 7504 38230 6398 34730 9697 65610 13270 7910 34760 8636 14190 22180 47070 7530 30840 8657 11110 10210 13850 24100 14660 20770 8292 19690 8884 12540 30010 11080 11800 10070 10110 22600 2196 16870 16550 6172 11480 29950 29990 8290 7065 6065 12070 33420 3536 15340 399 5786 5266 7093 24330 3845 58430 32870 4238 10300 38720 11690 11790 12740 5644 6352 24560 4293 16850 34250 16580 9083 33740 5492 12810 38160 9058 4047 6536 7759 6529 11670 8779 6080 6445 7440 26290 12060 11130 7989 8565 3827 9820 34460 15290 7233 10290 8056 9710 6911 6588 7306 19210 12020 9536 4421 7477 22150 11630 60590 9642 5173 12310 7516 28070 9593 4353 28250 14950 6521 18070 7002 26220 9850 11240 25460 5990 12700 7832 8960 31170 9140 10430 7350 6468 32720 8245 7796 30040 10360 11850 4592 9170 2813 8091 20780 12420 7730 9118 26190 15480 45950 22030 33540 13730 91910 44920 6533 28070 8824 9229 9860 63910 25220 16160 4854 4024 75370 10480 30870 3882 5101 7110 20230 3451 4337 9671 15130 9690 19160 6630 25470 5938 4940 2417 12480 8707 10470 37320 11300 41100 12610 15940 8766 3636 8319 15890 8843 7160 30380 12710 3880 14950 21100 6302 8561 21860 27790 9690 40720 12000 6070 33020 156 13600 4178 12770 8035 18630 16860 19130 5422 18950 14430 37670 15770 7760 12350 15370 23300 6700 14900 3955 29720 8188 9379 6017 27600 9016 7005 10540 9295 2265 2592 34340 42030 8001 4438 7081 32420 7395 9302 58800 365 19630 17870 21620 7475 6426 6205 8071 9271 23540 3063 6440 9431 6633 25420 7142 6467 8192 11840 7731 10610 19190 20780 18440 30430 9307 11180 22320 11190 7820 7553 4989 30800 23750 26990 7321 5721 34410 6807 19960 15850 19300 15720 26420 8011 7012 5324 14920 12440 7859 4727 12590 8523 20510 10540 7560 7330 1826 36290 24740 7533 6693 8493 7241 38510 31550 30510 31450 24220 11120 10120 7649 9920 6268 10660 8696 1707 6691 11950 6216 12150 6039 8244 19360 42250 25380 6913 10980 33150 8603 11140 30110 8827 7157 13800 8419 14200 10210 7344 17360
2021-08-01 11830 8853 4229 7840 11480 5881 11170 8464 2498 18410 11560 12510 11490 14950 5156 26790 38040 28480 5903 21250 11730 11470 13240 18290 31870 27100 132200 9490 25820 15190 6579 7550 38250 6426 34950 9745 65930 13330 7945 34890 8664 14220 22210 47270 7532 31000 8713 11170 10300 13900 24160 14680 20900 8342 19840 8939 12580 30070 11120 11810 10090 10180 22750 2207 16980 16600 6216 11540 30070 30050 8350 7119 6089 12130 33540 3549 15430 401 5834 5313 7127 24570 3870 58600 32990 4270 10360 38980 11720 11860 12810 5672 6416 24630 4328 16940 34480 16730 9115 33940 5507 12840 38270 9087 4066 6597 7770 6558 11750 8828 6093 6480 7456 26500 12100 11180 8010 8646 3848 9870 34630 15340 7285 10400 8133 9757 6954 6606 7351 19260 12080 9567 4450 7555 22240 11700 60800 9690 5215 12360 7567 28230 9651 4373 28370 15030 6598 18170 7050 26350 9900 11270 25620 6023 12740 7858 9013 31250 9193 10490 7382 6501 32850 8292 7840 30130 10410 11910 4608 9205 2823 8129 20890 12490 7798 9140 26330 15550 46200 22130 33710 13810 92340 45100 6580 28140 8851 9305 9940 64140 25320 16250 4890 4054 75490 10540 31020 3919 5154 7120 20320 3468 4384 9712 15240 9770 19320 6671 25580 5972 4961 2427 12490 8777 10560 37500 11340 41220 12630 16060 8798 3689 8385 15940 8910 7201 30450 12800 3906 15040 21200 6324 8589 21940 28080 9780 40870 12050 6097 33170 158 13680 4193 12810 8052 18700 17070 19270 5461 19000 14500 37780 15920 7790 12410 15400 23330 6715 15000 3988 29750 8232 9398 6035 27680 9065 7050 10610 9325 2278 2612 34420 42150 8073 4453 7144 32590 7453 9370 59090 366 19690 17930 21720 7505 6452 6237 8133 9309 23670 3104 6456 9478 6696 25510 7192 6485 8233 11880 7799 10660 19290 20880 18550 30590 9355 11250 22430 11250 7865 7591 5014 30980 23940 27220 7344 5758 34590 6837 20050 15950 19320 15860 26540 8052 7044 5394 15000 12500 7910 4752 12630 8585 20560 10570 7650 7356 1854 36420 24830 7570 6737 8519 7291 38720 31640 30690 31630 24310 11220 10180 7694 9950 6295 10720 8740 1722 6718 11980 6255 12190 6103 8280 19470 42280 25570 6969 11050 33310 8666 11180 30200 8919 7192 13860 8497 14280 10280 7388 17400
2021-08-02 11890 8887 4253 7934 11590 5901 11260 8552 2505 18490 11650 12590 11520 15010 5195 26870 38220 28640 5946 21320 11800 11550 13360 18390 32090 27190 132700 9556 25890 15330 6588 7595 38300 6459 35190 9791 66240 13380 7994 35040 8689 14260 22350 47540 7566 31140 8766 11230 10380 13960 24270 14710 21040 8392 19970 8987 12630 30140 11150 11830 10110 10250 22890 2218 17090 16640 6260 11600 30220 30170 8408 7174 6112 12180 33660 3561 15510 404 5882 5357 7173 24770 3894 58910 33160 4301 10430 39220 11740 11970 12880 5699 6489 24720 4362 17030 34690 16870 9146 34080 5522 12860 38380 9115 4085 6658 7780 6595 11820 8876 6124 6515 7484 26700 12160 11260 8046 8725 3867 9930 34790 15400 7335 10510 8210 9802 6996 6630 7396 19360 12140 9586 4478 7630 22330 11770 61020 9764 5257 12420 7609 28380 9707 4392 28490 15100 6671 18260 7097 26480 9950 11300 25770 6057 12780 7896 9065 31320 9245 10550 7454 6533 32980 8339 7883 30250 10440 11990 4623 9255 2834 8166 21000 12570 7864 9158 26460 15630 46440 22230 33880 13890 92930 45260 6625 28270 8898 9390 10020 64410 25420 16320 4924 4087 75750 10610 31170 3954 5199 7130 20410 3485 4429 9751 15340 9850 19480 6711 25690 6005 4980 2438 12510 8846 10640 37680 11380 41340 12660 16190 8829 3740 8450 16120 8974 7245 30580 12880 3940 15160 21320 6345 8615 22060 28360 9860 41080 12100 6123 33380 160 13750 4208 12860 8069 18780 17280 19400 5499 19090 14570 37890 16060 7819 12470 15440 23370 6729 15090 4019 29820 8274 9417 6058 27760 9112 7092 10680 9354 2292 2631 34570 42320 8143 4468 7196 32790 7509 9434 59430 366 19780 17980 21860 7558 6477 6267 8194 9346 23810 3143 6462 9525 6756 25610 7242 6503 8273 11910 7864 10710 19390 20940 18660 30760 9402 11320 22550 11330 7933 7629 5037 31210 24120 27440 7369 5794 34770 6867 20130 16020 19350 15990 26700 8088 7075 5463 15070 12580 7960 4792 12660 8644 20630 10620 7738 7380 1885 36550 24990 7607 6780 8544 7341 39010 31780 30860 31810 24420 11320 10240 7738 9990 6323 10790 8764 1736 6751 12040 6294 12250 6165 8320 19590 42360 25790 7024 11120 33460 8725 11220 30320 9005 7251 13920 8572 14350 10340 7432 17440
2021-08-03 11940 8919 4275 8011 11660 5920 11350 8636 2512 18580 11730 12660 11550 15040 5231 26940 38360 28780 5986 21380 11860 11620 13460 18480 32390 27290 133100 9616 25930 15460 6598 7640 38320 6492 35480 9833 66530 13430 8043 35170 8712 14300 22460 47780 7591 31270 8816 11280 10460 14010 24340 14740 21170 8442 20100 9023 12670 30210 11170 11860 10120 10320 23020 2228 17190 16680 6304 11660 30350 30250 8462 7224 6135 12240 33770 3573 15590 407 5927 5395 7215 24980 3916 59150 33300 4328 10490 39450 11770 12030 12950 5725 6536 24800 4394 17120 34890 17010 9179 34180 5539 12890 38490 9141 4104 6718 7791 6620 11900 8923 6146 6547 7507 26890 12210 11330 8078 8796 3884 9970 34930 15450 7378 10600 8288 9842 7038 6649 7441 19450 12190 9608 4503 7697 22420 11840 61180 9810 5295 12470 7656 28510 9759 4410 28600 15160 6734 18350 7141 26610 10000 11330 25910 6089 12810 7928 9115 31400 9294 10600 7481 6566 33090 8383 7923 30360 10470 12050 4640 9297 2843 8204 21110 12640 7928 9180 26580 15700 46660 22330 34030 13940 93380 45420 6664 28360 8919 9460 10090 64670 25510 16380 4955 4107 75870 10680 31310 3983 5233 7140 20500 3502 4472 9789 15450 9930 19620 6746 25790 6036 4998 2447 12530 8912 10730 37860 11410 41460 12710 16310 8861 3787 8511 16190 9033 7291 30680 12960 3968 15250 21430 6362 8638 22160 28590 9950 41250 12130 6148 33500 161 13820 4222 12890 8083 18870 17480 19540 5534 19160 14640 38000 16190 7846 12520 15480 23420 6744 15180 4047 29840 8312 9434 6081 27870 9157 7129 10740 9382 2306 2650 34680 42470 8207 4479 7244 32970 7560 9494 59830 368 19840 18030 21950 7609 6501 6296 8252 9381 23930 3180 6472 9570 6808 25690 7291 6522 8310 11940 7923 10740 19480 21040 18760 30910 9446 11380 22650 11390 7984 7664 5058 31390 24290 27630 7392 5831 34940 6894 20210 16080 19380 16120 26800 8115 7105 5527 15120 12640 8005 4818 12700 8700 20680 10650 7822 7401 1912 36670 25060 7654 6820 8567 7389 39230 31890 31020 31980 24510 11400 10300 7778 10030 6354 10850 8790 1751 6783 12080 6331 12300 6220 8362 19700 42380 25970 7076 11180 33590 8778 11250 30420 9078 7300 13970 8641 14420 10390 7473 17480
2021-08-04 12000 8951 4296 8083 11710 5939 11440 8718 2520 18670 11810 12730 11600 15100 5266 27020 38510 28920 6025 21460 11920 11690 13550 18570 32750 27380 133700 9674 25980 15590 6608 7684 38420 6519 35780 9873 66810 13480 8085 35310 8733 14340 22620 48120 7652 31400 8865 11340 10530 14060 24410 14760 21300 8493 20220 9058 12740 30280 11190 11870 10140 10380 23150 2238 17280 16730 6348 11720 30510 30400 8514 7273 6157 12280 33880 3585 15680 410 5972 5431 7256 25210 3938 59430 33470 4355 10550 39670 11800 12120 13010 5751 6567 24910 4426 17220 35080 17190 9211 34340 5556 12910 38600 9166 4122 6777 7802 6662 11970 8969 6175 6583 7520 27080 12270 11430 8110 8866 3899 10020 35080 15510 7420 10680 8365 9880 7080 6668 7487 19540 12240 9641 4528 7761 22510 11900 61360 9865 5333 12520 7701 28650 9811 4427 28710 15230 6794 18440 7185 26740 10050 11360 26050 6122 12840 7962 9164 31470 9342 10660 7505 6598 33210 8426 7963 30450 10530 12070 4656 9339 2851 8242 21220 12700 7991 9223 26710 15770 46880 22410 34180 14000 93880 45600 6702 28480 8966 9547 10170 64880 25610 16460 4984 4126 76190 10760 31450 4010 5262 7151 20580 3519 4514 9825 15560 10010 19760 6779 25900 6066 5015 2457 12550 8977 10810 38030 11440 41580 12740 16440 8892 3832 8570 16290 9091 7339 30800 13050 4002 15330 21550 6378 8660 22260 28810 10040 41460 12200 6172 33620 162 13890 4236 12920 8097 18960 17670 19630 5567 19220 14710 38100 16310 7873 12580 15520 23460 6759 15260 4074 29960 8349 9451 6111 28030 9201 7165 10810 9409 2320 2668 34840 42650 8270 4490 7279 33070 7608 9553 60230 369 19930 18070 22070 7665 6524 6323 8309 9415 24060 3215 6499 9615 6858 25780 7341 6540 8347 11970 7980 10780 19570 21210 18850 31060 9489 11440 22750 11440 8020 7699 5079 31520 24450 27810 7436 5868 35100 6921 20290 16130 19410 16230 26950 8146 7133 5591 15200 12680 8048 4857 12740 8754 20750 10700 7905 7421 1930 36800 25150 7707 6860 8588 7437 39450 32040 31180 32140 24610 11480 10350 7817 10060 6384 10900 8848 1765 6804 12150 6369 12350 6274 8402 19810 42530 26150 7128 11250 33730 8829 11290 30560 9147 7339 14010 8708 14490 10450 7512 17530

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-07-29 to 2021-08-04

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-07-28 11547 8695 4118 7360 10938 5792 10795 8057 2472 18117 11141 12169 11284 14671 4979 26446 37291 27780 5705 20714 11399 11106 12763 17848 30523 26679 129825 9180 25438 14555 6539 7354 38067 6264 33835 9530 64519 13079 7758 34328 8536 14004 21870 46073 7443 30325 8469 10907 9876 13601 23768 14564 20318 8139 19210 8703 12402 29678 10935 11715 10008 9877 22102 2156 16488 16376 6030 11273 29317 29601 8082 6859 5989 11871 33014 3497 15042 395 5628 5091 6945 23487 3762 57482 32195 4124 10063 37829 11593 11276 12483 5555 6071 24175 4178 16615 33467 16077 8985 33106 5455 12721 37806 8962 3986 6338 7730 6362 11411 8619 5969 6315 7376 25575 11810 10847 7829 8285 3749 9644 33892 15050 7045 9894 7800 9540 6772 6529 7174 18990 11819 9411 4321 7203 21823 11390 59612 9447 5028 12116 7268 27542 9401 4285 27838 14693 6245 17756 6844 25783 9666 11145 24916 5882 12533 7692 8785 30917 8959 10225 7277 6363 32293 8082 7649 29594 10189 11532 4545 9038 2774 7975 20411 12148 7501 9008 25756 15216 45115 21669 32972 13318 89432 44289 6363 27652 8661 8993 9634 63080 24898 15801 4731 3858 74781 10250 30348 3741 4915 7080 19911 3395 4222 9532 14799 9438 18604 6475 25109 5821 4869 2386 12428 8478 10161 36721 11153 40733 12522 15573 8666 3492 8096 15588 8610 7042 30031 12416 3778 14540 20701 6217 8459 21446 26686 9408 39887 11764 5981 32060 146 13326 4129 12556 7969 18366 16121 18484 5289 18589 14190 37341 15235 7658 12134 15247 23094 6650 14586 3835 29538 8029 9308 5940 27152 8850 6848 10308 9197 2223 2526 33855 41415 7758 4380 6835 31566 7188 9070 57720 363 19264 17650 21328 7411 6334 6098 7869 9145 23080 2925 6362 9280 6403 25096 6982 6409 8049 11726 7491 10471 18809 20488 18054 29864 9147 10928 21868 10832 7514 7425 4904 29823 23094 26163 7201 5608 33761 6702 19659 15411 19223 15230 25680 7918 6902 5087 14598 12121 7675 4613 12465 8314 20319 10332 7263 7238 1780 35873 24353 7378 6547 8399 7073 37207 31031 29910 30820 23803 10733 9915 7496 9803 6194 10441 8535 1661 6580 11801 6091 11934 5814 8131 18985 41915 24676 6730 10744 32705 8375 11011 29630 8485 6967 13587 8148 13938 9993 7196 17218
2021-07-29 11600 8726 4148 7409 11010 5809 10910 8145 2485 18230 11230 12250 11330 14740 5017 26520 37460 27910 5737 20810 11460 11200 12860 17930 30890 26790 130400 9248 25500 14680 6548 7398 38160 6300 34110 9590 64870 13130 7802 34480 8575 14040 22010 46430 7492 30510 8521 10960 9930 13660 23860 14590 20450 8196 19350 8755 12450 29770 10950 11740 10050 9980 22260 2165 16580 16450 6085 11310 29520 29730 8143 6924 6034 11920 33120 3512 15130 398 5670 5127 6989 23800 3790 57720 32420 4159 10120 38010 11650 11380 12550 5592 6130 24280 4215 16720 33670 16230 9021 33320 5483 12750 37950 8985 4017 6404 7749 6398 11500 8678 5997 6358 7395 25770 11860 10930 7862 8348 3764 9710 34010 15130 7083 9970 7899 9571 6827 6553 7224 19070 11860 9454 4351 7251 21930 11460 59810 9512 5070 12170 7341 27690 9452 4298 27980 14750 6298 17870 6892 25900 9710 11210 25030 5924 12590 7730 8830 31050 9008 10290 7303 6406 32410 8132 7688 29720 10260 11570 4571 9078 2781 8013 20550 12210 7569 9055 26010 15290 45300 21760 33160 13380 89950 44500 6396 27790 8703 9089 9720 63340 24980 15890 4765 3890 75050 10330 30490 3765 4966 7090 20010 3427 4253 9586 14910 9524 18770 6499 25250 5859 4885 2402 12440 8556 10250 36900 11210 40870 12560 15720 8697 3535 8153 15700 8659 7104 30140 12500 3810 14680 20820 6250 8515 21570 26820 9494 40130 11820 6007 32220 147 13400 4146 12590 7999 18460 16370 18630 5319 18670 14260 37450 15390 7708 12190 15280 23140 6669 14670 3865 29640 8072 9329 5965 27320 8908 6887 10390 9234 2239 2542 34020 41560 7804 4399 6897 31720 7239 9139 58140 366 19390 17700 21420 7456 6362 6126 7925 9183 23300 2961 6393 9327 6450 25190 7039 6453 8102 11790 7547 10520 18880 20650 18150 30050 9196 11000 21980 10900 7569 7468 4926 30010 23270 26280 7242 5653 33910 6735 19750 15480 19270 15370 25800 7948 6939 5132 14690 12190 7729 4651 12500 8371 20400 10410 7361 7253 1804 36020 24430 7427 6594 8419 7133 37430 31190 30030 30990 23920 10810 9960 7532 9850 6230 10500 8609 1677 6605 11850 6136 11990 5860 8181 19090 42050 24890 6779 10820 32870 8419 11090 29740 8538 7015 13620 8201 14020 10050 7240 17310
2021-07-30 11650 8759 4188 7512 11090 5823 11020 8240 2497 18320 11340 12320 11390 14820 5064 26610 37660 28080 5782 20930 11570 11320 12980 18040 31230 26930 131200 9327 25570 14850 6556 7443 38310 6341 34420 9670 65310 13200 7840 34640 8632 14090 22150 46800 7548 30730 8579 11020 10010 13720 23970 14610 20600 8249 19500 8816 12510 29860 11020 11760 10110 10060 22450 2177 16680 16580 6134 11360 29740 29910 8219 6986 6094 12000 33240 3525 15260 399 5730 5204 7038 24080 3827 58020 32680 4207 10190 38230 11740 11500 12630 5626 6206 24420 4259 16820 33950 16390 9058 33530 5499 12780 38100 9011 4047 6472 7769 6438 11600 8747 6029 6393 7415 26050 11920 11020 7898 8436 3786 9780 34170 15210 7131 10070 7970 9621 6880 6581 7265 19130 11930 9503 4396 7317 22040 11560 60000 9588 5123 12230 7422 27850 9511 4316 28160 14820 6382 18000 6945 26050 9770 11290 25160 5975 12690 7770 8883 31200 9066 10360 7342 6447 32580 8196 7738 29850 10340 11610 4584 9131 2789 8064 20700 12300 7644 9097 26240 15380 45520 21870 33390 13450 90440 44670 6439 27960 8770 9143 9810 63580 25080 15970 4806 3917 75340 10410 30660 3801 5027 7098 20120 3464 4291 9661 15020 9590 18980 6527 25400 5906 4907 2419 12450 8643 10320 37090 11290 41000 12590 15860 8715 3604 8236 15820 8730 7145 30250 12600 3839 14820 20950 6304 8582 21710 27070 9559 40360 11920 6038 32420 150 13470 4165 12640 8036 18530 16660 18770 5355 18780 14340 37560 15640 7763 12270 15320 23190 6691 14760 3904 29770 8134 9363 5994 27500 8983 6929 10480 9275 2255 2563 34210 41710 7873 4415 6947 31850 7305 9223 58550 370 19540 17760 21570 7494 6388 6167 7992 9231 23600 3005 6430 9382 6522 25280 7091 6503 8159 11860 7634 10570 18990 20820 18280 30230 9250 11100 22080 10980 7635 7518 4951 30220 23550 26430 7290 5704 34140 6770 19870 15560 19310 15530 25980 7977 6987 5190 14800 12280 7812 4684 12530 8443 20490 10510 7469 7273 1838 36160 24530 7480 6649 8446 7186 37660 31360 30170 31260 24070 10900 10030 7588 9910 6264 10580 8678 1694 6630 11910 6176 12050 5916 8228 19220 42250 25120 6832 10890 32980 8463 11180 29890 8625 7073 13680 8263 14130 10150 7300 17400
2021-07-31 11690 8789 4222 7590 11150 5838 11130 8329 2505 18410 11430 12360 11430 14890 5104 26680 37820 28230 5817 21040 11650 11430 13070 18140 31520 27030 131800 9395 25620 14990 6564 7479 38440 6369 34690 9740 65700 13240 7871 34780 8681 14130 22260 47070 7598 30930 8630 11080 10080 13770 24070 14630 20730 8301 19620 8864 12550 29920 11060 11770 10160 10140 22620 2187 16760 16680 6175 11390 29920 30050 8285 7040 6145 12060 33350 3537 15360 401 5785 5260 7079 24310 3861 58230 32890 4247 10240 38430 11820 11580 12710 5657 6273 24530 4297 16910 34170 16520 9094 33710 5516 12820 38220 9035 4076 6529 7786 6475 11690 8807 6051 6423 7432 26290 11970 11090 7924 8507 3804 9840 34310 15290 7168 10140 8043 9653 6926 6600 7306 19190 11980 9542 4428 7374 22140 11640 60150 9655 5165 12290 7490 27990 9561 4333 28310 14880 6451 18110 6990 26170 9820 11350 25260 6018 12770 7799 8929 31310 9112 10420 7373 6481 32730 8253 7773 29970 10410 11640 4599 9177 2797 8111 20840 12370 7708 9122 26440 15460 45680 21960 33550 13490 90850 44800 6476 28100 8815 9198 9900 63780 25170 16030 4841 3934 75570 10480 30810 3830 5076 7106 20220 3497 4325 9722 15120 9652 19160 6549 25530 5947 4921 2433 12460 8722 10380 37270 11360 41110 12620 16000 8736 3664 8308 15910 8783 7184 30330 12680 3864 14920 21060 6344 8638 21830 27260 9623 40550 11990 6065 32580 153 13550 4182 12680 8064 18590 16910 18880 5384 18870 14420 37670 15840 7811 12340 15350 23220 6712 14840 3939 29840 8187 9391 6013 27640 9049 6962 10550 9307 2270 2580 34370 41840 7929 4428 6984 31960 7361 9295 58920 373 19660 17810 21700 7524 6412 6204 8042 9272 23860 3043 6459 9425 6582 25350 7135 6548 8206 11910 7710 10610 19090 20970 18400 30370 9297 11180 22160 11040 7686 7562 4971 30400 23790 26540 7329 5745 34330 6792 19980 15630 19340 15670 26120 8000 7026 5240 14890 12350 7882 4713 12560 8507 20570 10580 7558 7288 1857 36270 24610 7522 6694 8470 7228 37790 31520 30290 31460 24190 10970 10090 7635 9950 6298 10650 8727 1710 6652 11950 6214 12090 5961 8261 19340 42380 25320 6874 10950 33070 8495 11250 29990 8687 7125 13720 8313 14220 10230 7353 17480
2021-08-01 11720 8814 4251 7658 11190 5855 11240 8410 2515 18490 11520 12420 11480 14950 5141 26750 37960 28370 5852 21130 11730 11530 13160 18230 31820 27130 132300 9459 25660 15130 6572 7511 38540 6401 34940 9810 66060 13290 7899 34920 8725 14170 22350 47340 7631 31110 8676 11130 10140 13810 24160 14650 20860 8351 19750 8916 12590 29980 11090 11780 10200 10210 22770 2196 16830 16760 6213 11430 30090 30170 8346 7095 6191 12110 33460 3548 15460 404 5836 5317 7118 24550 3892 58440 33070 4283 10310 38610 11890 11660 12770 5685 6337 24630 4333 17000 34370 16670 9128 33910 5532 12850 38360 9060 4103 6587 7803 6505 11770 8863 6072 6458 7451 26500 12010 11150 7941 8574 3820 9900 34440 15370 7205 10210 8112 9684 6974 6622 7345 19250 12040 9583 4460 7426 22230 11710 60340 9718 5205 12340 7553 28120 9607 4349 28450 14940 6513 18220 7032 26280 9870 11410 25360 6059 12830 7828 8972 31410 9160 10480 7408 6513 32870 8305 7804 30080 10490 11670 4615 9214 2804 8156 20980 12440 7770 9151 26620 15530 45850 22050 33680 13540 91210 44960 6509 28230 8857 9256 9980 64000 25260 16100 4874 3952 75800 10550 30940 3854 5123 7114 20310 3528 4357 9779 15230 9707 19330 6574 25660 5985 4934 2448 12470 8795 10440 37430 11420 41220 12640 16130 8760 3714 8370 15990 8830 7222 30410 12770 3889 15030 21170 6379 8686 21940 27430 9685 40730 12050 6091 32730 155 13620 4199 12710 8090 18640 17140 18980 5411 18950 14490 37770 16010 7855 12390 15390 23240 6731 14910 3970 29950 8237 9416 6032 27760 9110 6995 10630 9336 2284 2598 34520 41940 7985 4439 7027 32070 7413 9361 59270 376 19760 17850 21830 7557 6435 6238 8091 9310 24100 3079 6488 9463 6636 25430 7181 6586 8250 11960 7777 10660 19170 21120 18500 30500 9341 11260 22250 11100 7729 7604 4990 30570 24010 26650 7366 5783 34510 6819 20070 15690 19370 15800 26240 8029 7062 5281 14980 12420 7946 4740 12580 8566 20650 10650 7622 7301 1883 36360 24670 7561 6735 8491 7270 37920 31640 30410 31640 24300 11040 10150 7677 9990 6331 10710 8782 1724 6676 11980 6250 12130 5999 8295 19450 42510 25540 6915 11010 33210 8522 11320 30070 8748 7169 13770 8359 14300 10300 7402 17550
2021-08-02 11780 8851 4283 7721 11270 5875 11340 8491 2525 18580 11610 12510 11520 15020 5176 26830 38170 28550 5893 21210 11830 11620 13300 18320 32110 27260 133000 9520 25740 15260 6580 7558 38680 6435 35210 9870 66410 13360 7935 35070 8766 14210 22530 47680 7684 31280 8742 11180 10210 13890 24280 14680 21000 8404 19870 8963 12640 30060 11170 11800 10240 10290 22920 2206 16920 16850 6273 11480 30270 30380 8404 7147 6235 12180 33590 3561 15560 407 5887 5393 7167 24780 3922 58810 33300 4316 10350 38790 11960 11780 12840 5715 6401 24740 4366 17110 34650 16810 9162 34080 5550 12880 38540 9089 4129 6644 7823 6549 11840 8926 6105 6504 7472 26710 12080 11240 7990 8656 3836 9960 34580 15440 7254 10300 8193 9720 7018 6655 7385 19330 12090 9619 4497 7494 22320 11780 60550 9795 5243 12390 7611 28250 9651 4364 28600 14990 6574 18330 7073 26410 9920 11510 25480 6115 12930 7866 9022 31550 9223 10540 7449 6556 33000 8353 7856 30210 10550 11720 4635 9266 2811 8200 21110 12510 7838 9196 26810 15600 46130 22130 33910 13620 91890 45160 6544 28370 8910 9315 10060 64240 25340 16190 4906 3991 76170 10630 31110 3887 5167 7124 20400 3558 4388 9838 15330 9772 19500 6602 25780 6021 4955 2464 12480 8867 10530 37600 11480 41370 12670 16260 8786 3761 8434 16140 8885 7268 30540 12850 3928 15150 21290 6422 8739 22080 27650 9748 40940 12130 6117 32930 156 13680 4215 12760 8123 18720 17360 19090 5443 19040 14560 37870 16190 7898 12470 15440 23290 6749 15010 4000 30130 8283 9455 6064 27940 9169 7037 10720 9368 2299 2617 34720 42140 8067 4451 7067 32200 7463 9424 59640 378 19880 17900 21980 7600 6460 6270 8158 9352 24320 3115 6514 9521 6686 25530 7250 6626 8293 12030 7838 10700 19250 21270 18590 30660 9382 11330 22390 11160 7791 7644 5016 30740 24220 26790 7415 5841 34760 6849 20170 15750 19400 15920 26400 8057 7110 5357 15080 12480 8006 4778 12620 8623 20740 10740 7741 7319 1915 36500 24800 7614 6786 8513 7326 38230 31790 30550 31850 24440 11110 10200 7718 10050 6365 10780 8857 1738 6703 12050 6287 12190 6054 8346 19560 42750 25760 6969 11070 33350 8566 11410 30190 8830 7225 13810 8407 14380 10380 7449 17640
2021-08-03 11830 8890 4320 7802 11340 5893 11440 8571 2537 18660 11700 12590 11560 15090 5210 26910 38350 28690 5925 21300 11940 11710 13460 18400 32420 27350 133700 9580 25810 15390 6588 7608 38840 6471 35520 9930 66750 13420 7973 35230 8807 14260 22730 48070 7735 31450 8799 11250 10290 13950 24400 14710 21130 8461 19980 9006 12680 30140 11250 11810 10300 10360 23070 2215 17010 16950 6325 11520 30480 30550 8461 7199 6277 12260 33730 3574 15660 410 5937 5446 7217 25010 3952 59130 33540 4349 10420 38970 12030 11880 12900 5743 6461 24850 4400 17220 34890 16980 9195 34230 5572 12920 38700 9115 4155 6710 7842 6594 11920 8991 6138 6552 7495 26910 12140 11310 8032 8732 3850 10020 34710 15510 7287 10370 8272 9762 7061 6688 7425 19400 12140 9659 4529 7561 22410 11850 60740 9865 5279 12440 7668 28370 9693 4380 28740 15040 6642 18430 7112 26530 9970 11590 25580 6157 12980 7903 9064 31670 9286 10600 7483 6593 33130 8403 7908 30340 10620 11760 4653 9308 2818 8244 21240 12580 7898 9243 26990 15670 46390 22220 34110 13700 92510 45330 6578 28520 8964 9375 10140 64480 25420 16290 4935 4026 76420 10700 31280 3910 5209 7133 20490 3588 4419 9905 15440 9840 19670 6627 25910 6056 4973 2481 12490 8938 10620 37770 11560 41500 12710 16400 8808 3822 8514 16260 8953 7315 30650 12930 3964 15260 21420 6470 8795 22210 27880 9812 41190 12230 6142 33130 158 13750 4231 12800 8154 18810 17580 19210 5469 19130 14630 37970 16390 7940 12550 15480 23340 6768 15110 4029 30250 8327 9481 6098 28130 9227 7066 10790 9411 2315 2638 34910 42330 8144 4463 7102 32310 7512 9487 60020 381 19990 17950 22160 7637 6486 6303 8223 9399 24540 3150 6538 9575 6735 25630 7312 6675 8344 12110 7905 10750 19340 21410 18690 30820 9421 11410 22500 11220 7852 7684 5036 30940 24430 26890 7462 5904 34940 6883 20290 15800 19430 16050 26560 8084 7144 5424 15180 12540 8066 4812 12650 8680 20840 10810 7853 7335 1941 36630 24910 7664 6833 8533 7367 38510 31930 30690 32100 24580 11160 10250 7765 10100 6398 10850 8918 1752 6728 12110 6323 12240 6100 8399 19680 42950 25970 7013 11130 33480 8604 11490 30330 8901 7274 13860 8464 14460 10470 7495 17720
2021-08-04 11890 8927 4350 7886 11390 5910 11540 8661 2545 18750 11810 12670 11610 15160 5244 27000 38550 28830 5957 21400 12030 11820 13590 18500 32730 27440 134400 9639 25880 15530 6597 7660 38990 6509 35850 10000 67090 13480 8007 35380 8846 14300 22930 48530 7792 31610 8859 11300 10370 14010 24510 14730 21270 8516 20100 9050 12740 30210 11330 11820 10360 10440 23210 2223 17090 17030 6382 11570 30690 30720 8518 7254 6319 12350 33840 3586 15780 414 5987 5534 7263 25260 3982 59480 33770 4382 10490 39140 12110 11990 12970 5780 6519 24980 4433 17330 35240 17150 9229 34420 5589 12950 38880 9137 4181 6786 7859 6649 11990 9047 6175 6607 7513 27160 12210 11410 8077 8797 3865 10080 34830 15590 7324 10450 8351 9794 7104 6723 7464 19470 12190 9706 4566 7624 22500 11910 60990 9936 5314 12490 7731 28500 9734 4395 28890 15090 6702 18530 7150 26650 10020 11670 25690 6197 13080 7941 9115 31780 9354 10650 7520 6635 33290 8465 7961 30470 10690 11800 4670 9349 2825 8288 21360 12650 7958 9290 27170 15740 46640 22300 34360 13790 93080 45510 6618 28680 9021 9437 10230 64710 25510 16400 4966 4057 76800 10780 31450 3933 5250 7142 20570 3618 4450 9976 15550 9912 19870 6648 26030 6091 4990 2492 12510 9009 10710 37930 11610 41640 12740 16530 8831 3871 8577 16360 9017 7355 30770 13010 4005 15370 21550 6526 8845 22340 28110 9875 41400 12320 6167 33320 159 13820 4247 12840 8183 18900 17800 19300 5500 19220 14700 38070 16550 7981 12640 15530 23380 6786 15200 4058 30420 8375 9507 6134 28340 9284 7098 10860 9440 2333 2658 35130 42520 8226 4472 7136 32420 7560 9548 60410 383 20090 17990 22360 7674 6509 6342 8283 9442 24760 3191 6571 9628 6784 25730 7371 6716 8392 12160 7988 10800 19420 21610 18780 31000 9460 11480 22630 11280 7906 7723 5058 31100 24680 27000 7515 5968 35120 6920 20380 15880 19460 16170 26760 8116 7179 5494 15280 12600 8136 4845 12670 8736 20930 10890 7972 7348 1969 36760 25010 7711 6877 8556 7409 38790 32090 30830 32320 24720 11250 10300 7812 10160 6432 10910 8990 1766 6753 12190 6359 12290 6143 8454 19810 43210 26180 7065 11190 33610 8635 11560 30470 8970 7325 13910 8520 14530 10560 7552 17790

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.