COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-11-29 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-11-29

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-11-29

AdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)11-0410-2110-2511-0810-21 -- --10-31 --11-0810-1310-04 --11-0310-2410-1911-05 --11-0311-0210-1810-1110-2410-1211-1610-2610-2510-24 --10-1511-08 --10-1210-3011-01 --11-0311-0310-0409-2710-2510-2911-0210-0510-2411-1510-25 --11-0110-1311-0711-0110-2510-2810-3110-2210-2711-0310-1110-1710-2610-3111-0210-3010-0311-0311-0410-1811-1011-1811-04 --11-0110-2511-0210-1910-2711-1611-0211-0409-3011-0111-0111-0311-0810-2510-3011-0211-0311-1510-2010-2611-0511-0911-1011-0310-1109-2711-0111-03 -- --10-1110-2810-1111-1711-03 --10-30 --10-2909-2710-2410-1711-0310-12 --10-2211-0810-2111-0311-1511-0511-0811-02 --10-2211-0411-0111-0411-1010-2910-11 --04-2111-0410-1311-0310-2511-0110-1310-2709-2910-2110-0709-2711-0211-09 --11-01 --09-2911-08 --11-0510-2409-2210-21 --11-0111-16 --11-0810-3111-0811-03 --10-2111-0209-2709-2611-01 --11-0310-1910-2511-0311-0111-0711-1311-0111-0311-0311-0110-2810-3111-1109-3011-0111-0210-2011-0110-1111-1111-0211-0310-1310-25 --11-0310-2611-0110-1310-1311-0110-2211-1010-12 --10-2211-0111-0710-0910-1111-0411-0210-2110-2911-0111-0509-3011-0311-0309-2910-3111-0210-3111-0111-0710-2810-2110-3111-0111-02 --11-0911-0211-0410-3010-1311-0310-2511-0311-0311-0310-1211-0111-0610-0910-3110-3111-0410-1810-1211-0110-2510-2911-0111-0111-04 --11-0110-1810-2911-0110-2110-2810-0511-0311-04 --11-03 -- --10-25 --11-0510-1311-0911-0111-0210-2211-02 --11-0110-2010-1910-2910-2111-1811-0310-2510-2910-3010-0511-1810-2410-1310-2010-2111-0811-0311-0210-04 --11-0411-0210-3010-2110-3011-0210-1110-3110-06
Peak daily increment 8 29 79 41 64 19 96 191 28 34 75 73 37 600 60 163 99 54 235 52 135 21 443 50 99 71 320 25 37 31 57 70 159 140 45 47 51 67 40 49 132 32 26 34 124 142 54 23 14 62 32 22 19 63 20 291 136 20 30 87 29 51 26 164 29 252 55 55 245 116 16 36 27 37 102 30 220 74 29 18 33 16 25 101 41 26 55 75 26 19 41 126 71 38 23 27 32 71 32 55 42 61 65 65 15 71 14 39 132 45 42 95 50 22 76 27 59 16 52 34 27 29 278 47 357 152 72 85 541 245 13 59 528 87 7 14 605 60 26 20 15 10 31 88 26 32 55 391 83 20 51 159 26 48 103 20 85 116 34 55 87 127 27 611 66 39 261 47 64 61 78 80 101 36 92 41 38 41 42 17 200 19 63 201 42 28 66 18 7 16 245 228 79 28 184 35 30 435 109 73 91 22 18 24 65 138 11 26 73 37 31 26 70 34 75 84 74 42 61 34 30 118 81 56 19 183 125 188 32 30 153 25 48 64 177 46 18 15 87 21 18 19 23 46 114 138 20 18 24 252 157 74 136 59 25 22 44 18 28 26 8 91 41 22 24 62 340 84 30 38 137 32 135 36 15 30 46 65 40 130
Days since peak 25 39 35 21 39 29 21 47 56 26 36 41 24 26 27 42 49 36 48 13 34 35 36 45 21 48 30 28 26 26 56 63 35 31 27 55 36 14 35 28 47 22 28 35 32 29 38 33 26 49 43 34 29 27 30 57 26 25 42 19 11 25 28 35 27 41 33 13 27 25 60 28 28 26 21 35 30 27 26 14 40 34 24 20 19 26 49 63 28 26 49 32 49 12 26 30 31 63 36 43 26 48 38 21 39 26 14 24 21 27 38 25 28 25 19 31 49 222 25 47 26 35 28 47 33 61 39 53 63 27 20 28 61 21 24 36 68 39 28 13 21 29 21 26 39 27 63 64 28 26 41 35 26 28 22 16 28 26 26 28 32 29 18 60 28 27 40 28 49 18 27 26 47 35 26 34 28 47 47 28 38 19 48 38 28 22 51 49 25 27 39 31 28 24 60 26 26 61 29 27 29 28 22 32 39 29 28 27 20 27 25 30 47 26 35 26 26 26 48 28 23 51 29 29 25 42 48 28 35 31 28 28 25 28 42 31 28 39 32 55 26 25 26 35 24 47 20 28 27 38 27 28 40 41 31 39 11 26 35 31 30 55 11 36 47 40 39 21 26 27 56 25 27 30 39 30 27 49 29 54
Last total 572 1442 3497 1370 3565 2385 2752 1013 4644 7074 10512 1981 3777 2443 3643 3627 3306 4899 40433 3131 9697 5249 2510 15153 2079 7237 1464 29241 1567 1632 6537 1544 4082 15387 1423 5129 2298 1842 3351 4633 9758 8095 1890 3579 2641 2750 2632 1493 3608 6340 2399 1566 2284 9044 9001 2704 1247 1110 3744 2266 1181 1232 3751 965 19325 8726 1317 1470 6160 1992 3365 2493 1290 7834 1239 11905 3234 2240 10575 7958 642 1552 1518 2085 3540 1662 9837 3597 2166 1221 1660 909 1958 6246 2492 1298 2907 2654 1396 1269 1824 822 2467 7808 3461 2207 1075 2496 1612 4402 2137 4703 1718 3737 2044 4373 1335 3591 4920 976 3968 690 1745 6610 2487 1873 2361 6221 2505 1558 5540 2028 3829 1814 973 3601 2597 1886 2056 10428 3275 19253 7829 5562 4175 35822 17651 983 4272 2656 3072 24093 5879 3050 501 933 31175 2957 6490 1137 909 3459 684 810 1876 5625 3843 1307 1846 2949 15752 4471 7306 885 2883 5206 1515 2136 4788 645 4138 6811 1780 2324 5609 8505 1709 17004 3449 2451 14836 3370 4781 4476 4014 4400 7211 2731 7652 4553 2018 2110 2025 2931 984 12711 1063 3302 856 11021 2095 1695 3309 1558 480 734 13402 12421 2891 1537 10554 2120 1573 25505 5759 3923 5937 1497 1221 1394 2994 6222 603 1839 2411 2120 1469 1487 1754 3629 1491 3565 5790 3947 2538 4888 1769 1989 7652 3933 2617 1163 10554 7627 9401 1983 1398 11078 1348 3318 4520 3957 10459 2207 1149 959 4208 1643 1514 1001 4097 1504 3069 1804 1937 425 6780 8726 1330 1131 1537 13622 9467 5408 5389 8229 3093 2009 1650 1701 1386 1770 1675 408 4624 1780 1436 1560 4048 16596 5088 1739 2407 10026 1611 2145 8165 1885 1076 1884 2455 3365 2045 5659
Last daily increment 0 5 15 6 23 35 36 2 75 83 42 6 69 22 24 20 21 45 246 15 41 27 12 46 20 28 20 147 11 7 60 23 12 74 20 51 11 20 15 16 24 41 5 23 20 36 1 11 27 29 27 5 11 56 31 19 6 10 20 18 1 8 17 6 95 48 14 1 55 11 13 32 12 37 8 70 13 36 68 50 8 6 6 22 21 10 43 23 12 9 6 1 17 97 31 13 19 25 17 7 30 1 7 34 12 21 13 39 7 45 15 22 9 14 12 55 13 16 58 3 30 5 6 90 17 22 7 62 6 4 35 4 15 19 0 37 12 11 10 52 27 112 9 33 20 134 72 2 29 23 24 58 53 81 7 3 89 12 208 6 9 39 6 5 16 25 46 17 2 19 40 31 76 7 13 29 14 34 30 5 32 26 13 6 49 58 11 57 48 9 35 23 29 43 9 18 20 23 107 12 9 12 11 13 4 68 12 20 12 55 9 38 7 8 8 2 39 89 13 6 32 14 14 78 18 49 31 9 5 7 14 52 11 11 28 13 9 17 10 24 13 23 28 18 21 33 27 13 21 31 10 12 21 36 69 9 7 49 14 43 94 37 34 9 6 3 22 8 4 6 74 15 32 25 7 5 68 18 16 13 6 64 96 81 43 35 16 21 6 11 7 15 5 2 15 26 3 6 19 69 33 11 9 20 18 16 65 8 2 8 23 17 5 11
Last week 19 54 185 77 170 195 208 51 473 506 353 37 501 153 180 128 141 435 2070 174 371 191 106 471 281 269 101 1036 132 65 452 122 130 656 139 415 92 139 126 215 304 411 65 207 167 331 69 133 198 205 164 94 87 393 282 115 52 64 190 130 25 63 114 33 785 486 69 46 403 118 202 210 82 344 49 516 131 285 749 466 39 110 67 156 307 105 440 223 93 50 63 15 106 442 198 77 105 111 93 82 202 54 84 244 131 202 117 327 62 331 124 146 57 148 98 323 137 108 291 51 220 46 96 631 109 131 58 390 88 65 365 81 147 135 36 206 128 102 100 504 257 846 129 268 150 1032 765 58 273 139 299 395 435 546 30 42 801 129 1327 71 70 310 35 31 110 203 322 95 53 177 407 252 690 73 99 257 90 188 289 49 268 318 99 128 296 433 124 427 231 121 400 151 209 336 139 186 207 189 783 159 133 109 77 144 38 447 101 169 91 442 120 145 91 53 23 39 316 714 101 100 199 94 133 753 225 356 265 92 60 58 114 338 32 106 177 66 107 80 64 200 137 170 272 148 214 261 104 121 203 241 173 75 285 325 729 59 82 364 81 247 663 256 263 120 66 37 236 83 56 79 531 83 274 245 68 55 535 201 104 67 62 564 578 484 275 221 120 137 60 131 72 97 70 24 103 200 35 54 185 545 289 87 118 157 156 143 560 58 20 84 175 111 100 112
Previous peak date -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-05 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-20 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-03 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --04-1406-14 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --08-02 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --05-11 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Previous peak daily increment 56 40 68 29 75 75 68 27
Low between peaks 27 2 1 1 6 16 7 2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-11-30 to 2020-12-06

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-11-29 572 1442 3497 1370 3565 2385 2752 1013 4644 7074 10512 1981 3777 2443 3643 3627 3306 4899 40433 3131 9697 5249 2510 15153 2079 7237 1464 29241 1567 1632 6537 1544 4082 15387 1423 5129 2298 1842 3351 4633 9758 8095 1890 3579 2641 2750 2632 1493 3608 6340 2399 1566 2284 9044 9001 2704 1247 1110 3744 2266 1181 1232 3751 965 19325 8726 1317 1470 6160 1992 3365 2493 1290 7834 1239 11905 3234 2240 10575 7958 642 1552 1518 2085 3540 1662 9837 3597 2166 1221 1660 909 1958 6246 2492 1298 2907 2654 1396 1269 1824 822 2467 7808 3461 2207 1075 2496 1612 4402 2137 4703 1718 3737 2044 4373 1335 3591 4920 976 3968 690 1745 6610 2487 1873 2361 6221 2505 1558 5540 2028 3829 1814 973 3601 2597 1886 2056 10428 3275 19253 7829 5562 4175 35822 17651 983 4272 2656 3072 24093 5879 3050 501 933 31175 2957 6490 1137 909 3459 684 810 1876 5625 3843 1307 1846 2949 15752 4471 7306 885 2883 5206 1515 2136 4788 645 4138 6811 1780 2324 5609 8505 1709 17004 3449 2451 14836 3370 4781 4476 4014 4400 7211 2731 7652 4553 2018 2110 2025 2931 984 12711 1063 3302 856 11021 2095 1695 3309 1558 480 734 13402 12421 2891 1537 10554 2120 1573 25505 5759 3923 5937 1497 1221 1394 2994 6222 603 1839 2411 2120 1469 1487 1754 3629 1491 3565 5790 3947 2538 4888 1769 1989 7652 3933 2617 1163 10554 7627 9401 1983 1398 11078 1348 3318 4520 3957 10459 2207 1149 959 4208 1643 1514 1001 4097 1504 3069 1804 1937 425 6780 8726 1330 1131 1537 13622 9467 5408 5389 8229 3093 2009 1650 1701 1386 1770 1675 408 4624 1780 1436 1560 4048 16596 5088 1739 2407 10026 1611 2145 8165 1885 1076 1884 2455 3365 2045 5659
2020-11-30 577 1453 3510 1381 3595 2416 2805 1025 4765 7158 10630 1987 3864 2468 3656 3669 3334 4974 40750 3169 9760 5261 2518 15330 2140 7363 1479 29470 1605 1643 6680 1565 4100 15530 1443 5193 2305 1886 3414 4670 9900 8155 1901 3647 2651 2817 2749 1515 3641 6370 2427 1584 2313 9067 9038 2727 1251 1120 3805 2286 1188 1245 3785 970 19430 8764 1330 1473 6234 2013 3403 2572 1301 7907 1252 12020 3251 2284 10620 8149 650 1616 1528 2113 3607 1678 9920 3612 2186 1234 1665 925 1977 6396 2549 1312 2916 2675 1401 1284 1864 853 2485 7857 3533 2241 1093 2574 1622 4529 2159 4712 1723 3769 2136 4424 1361 3618 4975 979 3999 700 1757 6723 2498 1898 2379 6294 2514 1572 5658 2038 3862 1874 981 3640 2649 1905 2077 10510 3315 19480 7873 5614 4197 36070 17700 994 4321 2671 3120 24170 5997 3160 507 941 31380 2987 6851 1152 949 3502 691 816 1899 5653 3914 1320 1851 2962 15820 4488 7406 900 2889 5253 1524 2154 4833 652 4160 6880 1794 2333 5626 8535 1732 17080 3498 2531 15010 3379 4878 4554 4100 4418 7318 2772 7799 4572 2042 2127 2037 2982 993 12870 1080 3328 911 11080 2118 1720 3338 1567 485 746 13520 12590 2909 1555 10660 2140 1597 25630 5778 4026 5959 1512 1234 1399 3005 6300 608 1857 2445 2127 1552 1508 1761 3661 1516 3590 5848 3969 2572 4957 1791 2011 7675 3982 2628 1176 10680 7680 9540 2011 1415 11120 1363 3358 4580 3969 10570 2216 1161 968 4256 1655 1517 1016 4202 1522 3147 1842 1944 429 6951 8820 1347 1143 1547 13700 9524 5538 5406 8305 3108 2030 1663 1729 1415 1788 1680 413 4643 1810 1439 1571 4062 16710 5149 1746 2431 10110 1635 2169 8377 1892 1082 1893 2488 3391 2069 5679
2020-12-01 582 1463 3523 1392 3605 2446 2841 1038 4848 7241 10680 1992 3953 2493 3669 3687 3362 5050 40950 3208 9800 5272 2526 15440 2218 7434 1494 29650 1634 1653 6771 1586 4116 15630 1463 5258 2313 1910 3437 4708 9960 8214 1911 3679 2661 2876 2801 1538 3674 6400 2455 1602 2321 9091 9076 2750 1255 1131 3837 2305 1195 1258 3820 975 19520 8805 1343 1477 6309 2034 3442 2607 1312 7976 1265 12130 3266 2327 10670 8226 658 1635 1538 2142 3678 1695 9990 3628 2206 1248 1669 930 1996 6479 2577 1326 2924 2697 1406 1300 1902 864 2505 7903 3559 2275 1111 2653 1631 4599 2180 4722 1728 3803 2160 4473 1386 3641 5029 982 4027 711 1768 6836 2508 1923 2395 6367 2522 1587 5734 2048 3896 1906 989 3680 2677 1924 2098 10590 3356 19640 7894 5666 4220 36230 17760 1005 4371 2684 3169 24240 6064 3244 513 949 31470 3017 7128 1167 968 3545 698 822 1922 5678 3983 1333 1856 2966 15870 4505 7542 916 2896 5296 1532 2172 4876 660 4182 6951 1807 2343 5643 8566 1756 17150 3547 2560 15070 3388 4925 4614 4130 4435 7362 2805 7948 4591 2067 2144 2047 3011 1003 12930 1097 3355 923 11140 2142 1744 3342 1574 489 758 13590 12710 2926 1574 10710 2154 1622 25730 5799 4097 5979 1528 1248 1403 3015 6342 613 1876 2478 2135 1580 1529 1768 3692 1541 3611 5907 3992 2607 5009 1813 2034 7694 4033 2639 1190 10730 7728 9670 2018 1433 11160 1378 3398 4644 3982 10630 2225 1174 977 4301 1670 1521 1032 4309 1540 3199 1880 1950 434 7038 8853 1365 1155 1556 13770 9581 5633 5424 8333 3122 2051 1676 1758 1430 1806 1686 418 4655 1841 1441 1582 4076 16720 5213 1752 2456 10150 1658 2194 8482 1899 1089 1900 2520 3412 2093 5697
2020-12-02 587 1473 3536 1404 3614 2476 2882 1050 4940 7323 10730 1998 4043 2518 3682 3709 3390 5126 41060 3246 9870 5284 2534 15550 2271 7503 1508 29810 1669 1664 6859 1607 4133 15740 1482 5321 2321 1934 3471 4746 10020 8283 1921 3723 2672 2939 2843 1560 3707 6428 2483 1620 2333 9118 9113 2772 1259 1141 3868 2325 1203 1271 3854 979 19610 8846 1356 1480 6382 2055 3480 2644 1322 8045 1278 12220 3281 2369 10730 8318 666 1658 1547 2170 3747 1711 10070 3645 2226 1262 1674 935 2015 6551 2613 1339 2932 2718 1412 1315 1939 873 2523 7949 3577 2309 1129 2732 1641 4669 2201 4732 1733 3835 2185 4523 1412 3665 5083 985 4056 721 1780 6949 2519 1949 2411 6439 2530 1602 5798 2058 3930 1931 997 3718 2700 1943 2118 10660 3396 19790 7913 5717 4242 36390 17810 1016 4421 2698 3217 24310 6155 3353 519 957 31580 3046 7412 1182 982 3588 704 828 1944 5704 4049 1346 1860 2989 15930 4524 7676 930 2903 5341 1542 2191 4919 667 4206 7020 1821 2352 5664 8597 1779 17230 3595 2577 15140 3398 4980 4676 4160 4452 7401 2838 8098 4610 2092 2161 2059 3035 1012 13010 1114 3381 934 11190 2165 1769 3342 1582 494 769 13660 12810 2942 1593 10750 2165 1646 25820 5819 4164 5999 1543 1262 1408 3025 6409 618 1894 2511 2143 1616 1550 1774 3724 1566 3634 5965 4014 2640 5055 1834 2056 7715 4082 2650 1203 10780 7778 9810 2022 1451 11200 1393 3438 4702 3998 10690 2234 1187 986 4347 1688 1525 1047 4411 1557 3260 1917 1957 438 7147 8887 1382 1167 1565 13840 9638 5729 5441 8364 3137 2071 1689 1786 1445 1824 1692 423 4671 1871 1444 1593 4091 16740 5274 1758 2480 10200 1681 2218 8589 1905 1095 1908 2552 3439 2117 5716
2020-12-03 592 1482 3549 1415 3625 2506 2913 1063 5005 7405 10760 2003 4135 2543 3694 3725 3418 5203 41170 3285 9920 5296 2541 15640 2311 7569 1523 29970 1680 1674 6934 1628 4149 15870 1502 5385 2329 1955 3507 4784 10060 8336 1931 3759 2682 2990 2892 1583 3739 6456 2511 1639 2339 9145 9150 2793 1263 1151 3895 2344 1210 1284 3889 984 19700 8888 1369 1484 6456 2077 3519 2686 1332 8114 1291 12280 3296 2412 10780 8391 674 1679 1556 2198 3819 1728 10150 3662 2247 1276 1679 936 2034 6630 2643 1353 2940 2739 1418 1330 1975 884 2542 7995 3595 2342 1147 2814 1650 4726 2222 4741 1737 3868 2208 4571 1438 3687 5136 988 4085 731 1791 7061 2529 1974 2427 6512 2537 1616 5866 2068 3964 1953 1005 3757 2724 1963 2139 10730 3436 19950 7929 5769 4264 36560 17870 1027 4471 2711 3266 24360 6234 3462 524 965 31660 3076 7704 1197 997 3631 711 834 1967 5728 4113 1358 1865 3008 15990 4542 7782 946 2910 5384 1551 2209 4962 674 4229 7092 1834 2362 5684 8629 1803 17300 3643 2598 15200 3407 5029 4737 4196 4467 7450 2871 8249 4629 2117 2177 2069 3056 1022 13050 1131 3407 958 11220 2189 1792 3342 1590 498 781 13720 12940 2958 1612 10790 2183 1670 25900 5840 4219 6017 1559 1275 1412 3034 6472 622 1912 2545 2152 1645 1571 1780 3755 1591 3654 6025 4036 2674 5092 1856 2078 7735 4132 2661 1216 10820 7826 9950 2022 1469 11240 1408 3477 4761 4013 10750 2243 1200 995 4392 1698 1529 1063 4515 1575 3304 1955 1963 443 7239 8912 1399 1178 1574 13910 9695 5814 5458 8401 3152 2092 1703 1815 1459 1841 1697 428 4684 1901 1447 1605 4105 16810 5338 1764 2505 10240 1704 2243 8688 1910 1101 1916 2584 3454 2142 5734
2020-12-04 597 1492 3562 1427 3637 2536 2944 1075 5058 7487 10800 2008 4229 2568 3706 3753 3446 5281 41300 3324 10000 5307 2549 15760 2344 7623 1537 30130 1701 1685 7005 1649 4165 15970 1522 5450 2337 1982 3539 4822 10090 8394 1942 3785 2693 3052 2944 1606 3773 6485 2539 1658 2353 9172 9187 2815 1267 1161 3930 2363 1217 1298 3925 988 19790 8930 1382 1488 6531 2099 3559 2721 1343 8183 1304 12340 3311 2454 10830 8474 682 1696 1565 2226 3892 1744 10230 3679 2267 1290 1683 936 2053 6702 2691 1366 2947 2760 1423 1346 2011 897 2562 8042 3616 2376 1165 2898 1659 4778 2244 4751 1742 3901 2223 4621 1464 3710 5190 992 4113 741 1803 7175 2539 1999 2443 6586 2544 1631 5918 2078 3998 1976 1014 3796 2743 1982 2160 10810 3476 20060 7944 5821 4286 36760 17930 1038 4521 2724 3315 24420 6306 3589 530 973 31770 3106 8001 1213 1009 3675 718 840 1991 5752 4177 1370 1869 3026 16050 4561 7889 961 2917 5427 1560 2228 5005 681 4253 7165 1847 2371 5704 8660 1827 17370 3692 2623 15250 3417 5092 4788 4236 4483 7489 2898 8403 4648 2143 2194 2080 3085 1032 13180 1148 3434 978 11290 2212 1816 3352 1598 503 793 13760 13100 2974 1631 10830 2192 1694 26030 5860 4285 6035 1574 1289 1416 3043 6520 627 1931 2578 2161 1676 1592 1786 3787 1617 3675 6085 4058 2709 5137 1877 2101 7755 4183 2672 1229 10850 7875 10090 2022 1487 11280 1424 3516 4821 4028 10810 2252 1213 1005 4437 1710 1533 1079 4621 1593 3354 1993 1969 448 7345 8955 1416 1190 1583 13980 9751 5905 5475 8430 3166 2113 1716 1845 1469 1859 1703 433 4695 1932 1449 1616 4120 16820 5402 1770 2530 10280 1727 2267 8803 1916 1108 1924 2616 3468 2167 5752
2020-12-05 602 1501 3575 1438 3637 2567 2960 1088 5104 7570 10820 2013 4325 2594 3719 3762 3474 5359 41300 3364 10040 5319 2556 15820 2382 7660 1552 30210 1719 1695 7056 1670 4180 16020 1543 5514 2345 1998 3558 4861 10110 8428 1952 3802 2704 3098 2976 1628 3806 6513 2566 1677 2360 9198 9224 2837 1271 1171 3951 2382 1224 1311 3960 992 19880 8972 1395 1491 6606 2121 3598 2746 1353 8253 1318 12380 3326 2497 10890 8530 690 1709 1575 2255 3966 1761 10310 3696 2288 1304 1688 939 2072 6762 2716 1380 2955 2781 1428 1361 2047 903 2581 8088 3626 2410 1183 2984 1668 4818 2265 4760 1747 3935 2235 4670 1490 3734 5244 995 4142 752 1814 7290 2550 2025 2459 6659 2552 1646 5962 2088 4033 2001 1022 3836 2758 2002 2181 10880 3517 20170 7951 5873 4308 36850 17980 1049 4573 2737 3364 24450 6362 3682 536 981 31800 3137 8228 1228 1016 3720 724 846 2014 5777 4240 1382 1873 3032 16110 4580 7970 977 2924 5471 1570 2247 5048 688 4277 7238 1860 2380 5724 8692 1851 17450 3742 2636 15270 3427 5130 4832 4258 4499 7516 2919 8561 4667 2169 2210 2091 3096 1042 13220 1165 3460 989 11310 2236 1840 3354 1605 507 806 13790 13150 2990 1651 10850 2193 1719 26070 5881 4329 6054 1590 1303 1421 3053 6550 631 1949 2612 2170 1697 1614 1792 3818 1642 3696 6145 4080 2743 5161 1899 2124 7774 4234 2683 1242 10870 7924 10230 2022 1505 11320 1439 3556 4881 4043 10840 2261 1226 1014 4483 1722 1537 1094 4727 1611 3383 2031 1976 453 7392 8979 1433 1202 1592 14060 9809 5986 5493 8446 3181 2133 1730 1874 1477 1877 1709 439 4707 1962 1452 1627 4135 16820 5466 1776 2555 10300 1750 2292 8858 1922 1114 1931 2649 3483 2192 5771
2020-12-06 607 1511 3588 1449 3648 2598 2993 1101 5196 7653 10880 2018 4424 2619 3731 3785 3503 5437 41490 3404 10070 5330 2564 15860 2406 7696 1566 30340 1729 1706 7109 1691 4196 16100 1563 5579 2353 2020 3573 4900 10160 8475 1962 3826 2715 3135 2977 1652 3839 6541 2594 1696 2375 9226 9261 2858 1275 1181 3972 2401 1231 1325 3996 997 19970 9014 1408 1495 6682 2143 3638 2776 1363 8322 1331 12440 3341 2540 10940 8587 698 1725 1584 2284 4041 1778 10390 3713 2309 1318 1693 943 2091 6849 2744 1394 2962 2802 1434 1377 2083 908 2601 8134 3640 2445 1202 3074 1677 4863 2287 4770 1751 3968 2249 4719 1517 3757 5298 998 4170 763 1825 7405 2560 2052 2475 6733 2559 1661 6003 2098 4067 2014 1030 3875 2773 2022 2203 10950 3558 20270 7964 5925 4330 36990 18040 1060 4625 2750 3414 24500 6421 3775 542 990 31920 3167 8525 1244 1028 3765 731 852 2038 5801 4303 1395 1877 3054 16160 4598 8048 993 2931 5514 1579 2266 5091 695 4301 7311 1873 2390 5744 8724 1875 17520 3792 2651 15320 3436 5150 4873 4275 4516 7542 2941 8721 4686 2195 2227 2101 3110 1052 13270 1182 3487 1010 11370 2260 1864 3357 1613 512 818 13830 13220 3007 1671 10880 2207 1744 26160 5902 4377 6072 1606 1317 1425 3062 6604 636 1968 2646 2180 1707 1635 1799 3850 1668 3717 6205 4102 2777 5197 1921 2147 7794 4285 2695 1256 10910 7972 10370 2029 1523 11360 1454 3596 4943 4059 10880 2270 1239 1023 4529 1729 1541 1111 4835 1629 3415 2070 1982 458 7458 9005 1450 1214 1601 14130 9866 6096 5510 8478 3196 2154 1744 1904 1482 1895 1714 444 4723 1993 1454 1638 4150 16860 5530 1782 2580 10320 1774 2317 8928 1928 1121 1939 2681 3500 2217 5789

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-11-30 to 2020-12-06

DateAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCarlisleCastle PointCentral BedfordshireCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyColchesterCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDerbyDerbyshire DalesDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyEalingEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast NorthamptonshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFarehamFenlandFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnIpswichIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMiddlesbroughMilton KeynesMole ValleyNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOxfordPendlePeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest LancashireWest LindseyWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2020-11-29 572 1442 3497 1370 3565 2385 2752 1013 4644 7074 10512 1981 3777 2443 3643 3627 3306 4899 40433 3131 9697 5249 2510 15153 2079 7237 1464 29241 1567 1632 6537 1544 4082 15387 1423 5129 2298 1842 3351 4633 9758 8095 1890 3579 2641 2750 2632 1493 3608 6340 2399 1566 2284 9044 9001 2704 1247 1110 3744 2266 1181 1232 3751 965 19325 8726 1317 1470 6160 1992 3365 2493 1290 7834 1239 11905 3234 2240 10575 7958 642 1552 1518 2085 3540 1662 9837 3597 2166 1221 1660 909 1958 6246 2492 1298 2907 2654 1396 1269 1824 822 2467 7808 3461 2207 1075 2496 1612 4402 2137 4703 1718 3737 2044 4373 1335 3591 4920 976 3968 690 1745 6610 2487 1873 2361 6221 2505 1558 5540 2028 3829 1814 973 3601 2597 1886 2056 10428 3275 19253 7829 5562 4175 35822 17651 983 4272 2656 3072 24093 5879 3050 501 933 31175 2957 6490 1137 909 3459 684 810 1876 5625 3843 1307 1846 2949 15752 4471 7306 885 2883 5206 1515 2136 4788 645 4138 6811 1780 2324 5609 8505 1709 17004 3449 2451 14836 3370 4781 4476 4014 4400 7211 2731 7652 4553 2018 2110 2025 2931 984 12711 1063 3302 856 11021 2095 1695 3309 1558 480 734 13402 12421 2891 1537 10554 2120 1573 25505 5759 3923 5937 1497 1221 1394 2994 6222 603 1839 2411 2120 1469 1487 1754 3629 1491 3565 5790 3947 2538 4888 1769 1989 7652 3933 2617 1163 10554 7627 9401 1983 1398 11078 1348 3318 4520 3957 10459 2207 1149 959 4208 1643 1514 1001 4097 1504 3069 1804 1937 425 6780 8726 1330 1131 1537 13622 9467 5408 5389 8229 3093 2009 1650 1701 1386 1770 1675 408 4624 1780 1436 1560 4048 16596 5088 1739 2407 10026 1611 2145 8165 1885 1076 1884 2455 3365 2045 5659
2020-11-30 575 1448 3521 1391 3600 2414 2794 1021 4743 7175 10570 1987 3862 2466 3668 3653 3328 4971 40740 3159 9760 5274 2531 15250 2135 7286 1479 29410 1605 1639 6620 1564 4096 15500 1442 5192 2315 1871 3372 4665 9820 8148 1900 3624 2663 2825 2658 1519 3634 6368 2425 1579 2298 9105 9041 2722 1253 1121 3783 2287 1184 1241 3773 969 19450 8790 1329 1476 6228 2009 3393 2539 1300 7873 1248 12000 3248 2289 10670 8074 649 1577 1530 2108 3590 1680 9880 3628 2180 1237 1669 912 1974 6336 2529 1311 2928 2673 1408 1285 1856 836 2479 7841 3485 2236 1089 2569 1620 4471 2155 4723 1726 3759 2070 4426 1358 3616 4987 982 3995 698 1756 6722 2503 1897 2369 6284 2516 1572 5605 2037 3855 1839 979 3640 2620 1901 2076 10490 3312 19400 7855 5612 4199 36030 17780 991 4328 2671 3120 24160 5955 3177 507 941 31310 2977 6772 1146 928 3508 693 815 1894 5651 3896 1321 1853 2977 15800 4507 7424 895 2898 5249 1530 2166 4825 653 4179 6866 1792 2343 5661 8566 1728 17070 3492 2476 14910 3389 4823 4549 4037 4432 7250 2759 7777 4570 2035 2128 2035 2960 990 12830 1079 3326 881 11080 2112 1722 3326 1566 484 741 13460 12530 2904 1552 10600 2134 1594 25610 5790 3988 5981 1509 1232 1404 3009 6277 608 1855 2461 2133 1495 1506 1762 3662 1508 3597 5833 3967 2569 4952 1786 2006 7682 3972 2639 1175 10610 7666 9520 2000 1413 11130 1363 3355 4631 3988 10520 2223 1161 965 4242 1656 1521 1012 4193 1520 3127 1843 1950 434 6906 8773 1348 1144 1545 13710 9560 5516 5435 8267 3110 2029 1659 1736 1398 1786 1685 412 4646 1806 1444 1574 4076 16690 5140 1750 2427 10060 1651 2170 8270 1891 1079 1897 2484 3384 2062 5675
2020-12-01 579 1454 3551 1406 3633 2442 2831 1032 4829 7265 10630 1991 3958 2491 3699 3665 3355 5050 41140 3195 9820 5301 2554 15330 2197 7339 1491 29570 1633 1649 6714 1585 4118 15600 1461 5261 2333 1897 3388 4703 9870 8206 1917 3656 2689 2889 2684 1542 3664 6395 2449 1597 2308 9174 9075 2736 1263 1130 3817 2307 1188 1254 3801 972 19570 8873 1339 1486 6307 2032 3430 2583 1311 7935 1258 12110 3266 2341 10800 8160 657 1598 1542 2133 3657 1697 9950 3669 2200 1251 1680 916 1991 6423 2562 1322 2949 2692 1421 1298 1893 848 2500 7883 3509 2272 1106 2636 1627 4543 2174 4746 1737 3788 2097 4472 1387 3636 5042 989 4026 708 1775 6825 2523 1919 2377 6354 2529 1587 5677 2048 3889 1864 988 3683 2644 1922 2095 10540 3352 19530 7877 5661 4223 36190 17930 1002 4369 2691 3176 24220 6028 3263 512 950 31460 3002 7032 1158 947 3558 700 820 1915 5679 3955 1332 1862 2999 15860 4553 7560 909 2917 5296 1546 2196 4877 660 4228 6932 1809 2367 5717 8644 1751 17150 3534 2503 14970 3412 4857 4606 4055 4472 7285 2792 7909 4589 2057 2147 2046 2989 997 12910 1095 3353 892 11160 2136 1744 3345 1574 487 750 13520 12670 2920 1571 10630 2150 1616 25730 5838 4052 6031 1523 1244 1415 3025 6315 611 1871 2495 2147 1514 1527 1769 3699 1532 3630 5887 3987 2601 5004 1804 2027 7714 4021 2665 1187 10660 7717 9660 2013 1428 11190 1379 3393 4758 4024 10560 2245 1174 973 4283 1670 1531 1028 4290 1539 3180 1886 1961 443 6994 8803 1364 1153 1553 13800 9650 5601 5482 8299 3125 2048 1671 1774 1412 1802 1698 417 4659 1837 1450 1585 4109 16770 5206 1765 2450 10090 1676 2194 8373 1897 1085 1909 2512 3399 2084 5698
2020-12-02 584 1460 3581 1421 3665 2470 2870 1044 4928 7354 10690 1994 4054 2514 3730 3681 3382 5128 41520 3231 9870 5328 2576 15410 2247 7385 1504 29710 1669 1659 6806 1605 4141 15690 1479 5330 2351 1923 3407 4739 9920 8267 1934 3695 2714 2956 2705 1568 3693 6421 2475 1615 2318 9242 9111 2750 1273 1139 3850 2327 1192 1266 3827 975 19690 8957 1351 1494 6386 2054 3468 2628 1322 7999 1269 12190 3284 2394 10930 8258 665 1621 1556 2159 3720 1712 10000 3711 2220 1264 1690 919 2008 6508 2598 1335 2967 2711 1433 1318 1930 859 2518 7926 3531 2308 1122 2707 1634 4615 2193 4769 1747 3818 2124 4519 1417 3655 5088 996 4056 718 1793 6941 2546 1943 2386 6423 2541 1599 5744 2060 3923 1885 997 3725 2668 1943 2115 10590 3392 19670 7896 5706 4244 36340 18070 1013 4417 2712 3232 24280 6108 3376 517 960 31590 3027 7298 1170 964 3609 708 825 1935 5703 4013 1343 1872 3035 15910 4598 7696 923 2937 5340 1562 2226 4930 671 4273 7000 1826 2393 5773 8722 1774 17220 3579 2529 15040 3435 4896 4666 4072 4512 7317 2823 8041 4607 2079 2162 2056 3012 1005 13000 1112 3380 905 11230 2160 1763 3362 1582 491 758 13570 12780 2941 1590 10660 2166 1639 25850 5886 4115 6081 1538 1257 1425 3039 6370 615 1887 2538 2162 1539 1547 1776 3734 1556 3657 5940 4005 2632 5051 1821 2048 7745 4069 2692 1198 10710 7769 9780 2026 1447 11250 1394 3431 4904 4060 10590 2269 1187 979 4322 1685 1541 1044 4388 1558 3238 1926 1970 453 7099 8827 1380 1163 1563 13890 9750 5690 5530 8331 3140 2068 1683 1804 1425 1818 1707 423 4675 1869 1458 1599 4141 16850 5272 1777 2471 10120 1701 2217 8478 1904 1090 1921 2541 3416 2106 5719
2020-12-03 588 1466 3609 1436 3695 2498 2904 1056 5003 7441 10740 1997 4153 2536 3761 3695 3409 5207 41890 3267 9930 5356 2594 15490 2294 7426 1516 29860 1680 1669 6890 1627 4163 15790 1498 5399 2367 1946 3428 4776 9960 8323 1953 3730 2740 3015 2727 1591 3722 6447 2500 1633 2327 9312 9143 2764 1283 1149 3880 2348 1196 1278 3854 977 19800 9042 1362 1499 6466 2077 3505 2676 1332 8057 1279 12260 3304 2446 11060 8340 673 1643 1568 2184 3787 1725 10060 3753 2240 1274 1701 920 2026 6596 2632 1346 2985 2730 1446 1332 1967 871 2535 7968 3553 2344 1138 2775 1641 4684 2212 4792 1758 3849 2151 4566 1446 3673 5137 1003 4086 728 1811 7054 2567 1966 2395 6492 2554 1611 5812 2071 3957 1906 1006 3767 2692 1964 2135 10640 3432 19800 7915 5753 4265 36480 18210 1025 4457 2732 3288 24330 6185 3486 522 966 31700 3052 7562 1182 981 3661 715 830 1956 5728 4070 1354 1881 3067 15970 4643 7807 938 2955 5388 1578 2256 4983 681 4320 7069 1843 2417 5830 8801 1797 17290 3623 2555 15110 3458 4929 4726 4090 4552 7353 2855 8173 4626 2102 2179 2067 3033 1012 13070 1129 3407 928 11290 2184 1784 3380 1591 495 765 13620 12900 2961 1608 10680 2183 1662 25960 5934 4174 6132 1552 1270 1435 3054 6416 618 1903 2573 2176 1559 1568 1782 3766 1578 3684 5994 4021 2665 5087 1838 2068 7773 4117 2719 1210 10760 7819 9910 2036 1461 11310 1408 3470 5041 4097 10630 2292 1199 986 4362 1697 1552 1060 4476 1577 3288 1968 1984 463 7184 8848 1395 1172 1569 13950 9850 5766 5578 8364 3155 2087 1695 1826 1438 1834 1721 428 4687 1901 1463 1609 4175 16940 5338 1792 2494 10140 1725 2246 8572 1911 1096 1936 2570 3431 2128 5739
2020-12-04 594 1472 3635 1453 3726 2526 2939 1068 5086 7525 10800 2000 4252 2560 3793 3723 3436 5286 42340 3303 9980 5383 2612 15570 2338 7462 1529 30010 1703 1678 6977 1648 4186 15870 1517 5469 2385 1976 3446 4821 10020 8379 1971 3761 2767 3082 2752 1618 3752 6473 2524 1652 2337 9375 9179 2777 1292 1158 3910 2368 1200 1291 3887 979 19920 9127 1373 1505 6546 2102 3543 2725 1340 8110 1293 12320 3322 2501 11200 8444 681 1664 1580 2209 3851 1747 10110 3795 2260 1288 1712 920 2043 6684 2674 1362 3008 2749 1459 1351 2005 886 2553 8010 3576 2381 1155 2847 1647 4752 2231 4815 1769 3886 2177 4614 1477 3693 5199 1010 4117 738 1836 7172 2592 1991 2403 6563 2568 1626 5878 2083 3991 1925 1016 3810 2715 1986 2158 10690 3473 19920 7935 5818 4283 36670 18350 1036 4502 2753 3346 24390 6263 3621 529 975 31850 3077 7868 1194 998 3716 723 836 1977 5757 4131 1365 1891 3097 16020 4702 7923 952 2974 5437 1595 2287 5036 689 4368 7136 1860 2443 5887 8880 1820 17370 3665 2582 15190 3481 4969 4777 4108 4591 7390 2886 8308 4644 2125 2196 2078 3063 1019 13160 1146 3434 949 11370 2208 1807 3399 1600 499 772 13650 13070 2980 1627 10710 2198 1685 26110 5983 4239 6182 1566 1283 1444 3067 6457 621 1919 2609 2191 1586 1591 1788 3792 1602 3708 6059 4043 2697 5136 1855 2089 7801 4166 2745 1222 10810 7871 10040 2048 1477 11360 1424 3507 5164 4134 10670 2315 1213 996 4401 1710 1562 1077 4597 1596 3346 2014 1992 475 7297 8889 1412 1183 1578 14070 9950 5867 5625 8401 3169 2106 1707 1860 1453 1850 1734 434 4698 1934 1469 1622 4207 17020 5404 1806 2517 10170 1742 2273 8691 1918 1101 1950 2599 3444 2150 5771
2020-12-05 598 1479 3662 1466 3750 2555 2968 1080 5167 7592 10860 2004 4361 2581 3825 3734 3464 5368 42700 3341 10020 5411 2627 15640 2381 7490 1542 30140 1722 1687 7065 1670 4208 15940 1535 5541 2399 2002 3470 4853 10060 8432 1989 3781 2793 3141 2771 1637 3782 6497 2547 1669 2346 9434 9210 2792 1302 1167 3935 2388 1204 1304 3912 982 20000 9214 1384 1511 6628 2124 3581 2768 1349 8167 1304 12380 3340 2551 11330 8517 689 1684 1589 2235 3911 1757 10170 3838 2280 1304 1722 923 2061 6771 2709 1372 3025 2769 1472 1364 2043 898 2568 8053 3597 2418 1172 2921 1654 4819 2250 4838 1780 3914 2203 4658 1510 3708 5246 1016 4148 749 1852 7285 2613 2013 2412 6632 2581 1637 5942 2095 4026 1952 1026 3854 2737 2007 2178 10730 3514 20020 7952 5858 4296 36790 18480 1048 4543 2774 3405 24430 6332 3716 534 982 31940 3102 8104 1206 1014 3771 730 841 1999 5779 4196 1376 1901 3116 16080 4748 8002 967 2994 5485 1611 2318 5091 703 4412 7198 1877 2467 5945 8960 1844 17440 3712 2609 15240 3504 4998 4819 4125 4626 7420 2915 8438 4664 2148 2210 2089 3075 1027 13220 1163 3462 974 11420 2233 1825 3418 1608 503 779 13690 13140 2997 1644 10740 2214 1708 26220 6033 4297 6231 1580 1296 1451 3082 6498 624 1935 2641 2205 1608 1611 1794 3822 1625 3732 6113 4059 2730 5164 1872 2110 7825 4216 2768 1235 10850 7920 10150 2058 1490 11430 1438 3545 5359 4171 10710 2337 1226 1008 4440 1721 1573 1094 4687 1616 3391 2058 2000 486 7367 8908 1428 1191 1584 14150 10060 5950 5673 8434 3182 2126 1720 1892 1466 1866 1744 439 4709 1968 1474 1631 4238 17110 5472 1818 2539 10180 1767 2295 8782 1923 1106 1961 2628 3458 2173 5793
2020-12-06 602 1485 3689 1479 3774 2584 3001 1092 5236 7662 10920 2006 4465 2601 3858 3746 3492 5439 43090 3378 10050 5440 2643 15700 2424 7509 1555 30260 1735 1696 7146 1692 4232 15990 1551 5613 2412 2026 3488 4886 10110 8488 2008 3810 2820 3193 2784 1657 3812 6520 2574 1687 2355 9491 9240 2806 1312 1177 3957 2409 1208 1317 3937 985 20090 9301 1395 1517 6711 2147 3620 2817 1358 8225 1314 12430 3360 2600 11470 8580 697 1707 1599 2261 3972 1767 10230 3881 2301 1315 1732 926 2078 6863 2743 1382 3041 2788 1486 1374 2083 911 2585 8096 3620 2456 1189 2985 1661 4892 2269 4861 1791 3942 2230 4704 1543 3724 5287 1022 4179 760 1870 7380 2630 2036 2421 6704 2593 1648 6006 2107 4061 1974 1035 3899 2760 2029 2196 10770 3556 20110 7969 5907 4312 36870 18600 1059 4572 2795 3464 24460 6404 3795 539 987 32060 3128 8364 1219 1033 3821 739 846 2020 5800 4256 1387 1911 3140 16140 4793 8102 981 3013 5529 1628 2349 5146 712 4456 7258 1895 2489 6004 9041 1867 17510 3755 2635 15310 3527 5022 4857 4140 4673 7454 2942 8570 4683 2172 2221 2100 3088 1035 13280 1181 3490 997 11470 2258 1844 3435 1616 507 785 13720 13210 3012 1661 10770 2230 1732 26340 6084 4356 6279 1595 1309 1460 3096 6535 627 1952 2678 2220 1620 1635 1800 3850 1649 3754 6168 4076 2763 5193 1889 2132 7849 4266 2792 1247 10900 7973 10270 2067 1502 11490 1454 3580 5540 4209 10730 2360 1239 1014 4476 1731 1584 1111 4806 1636 3435 2099 2009 494 7421 8931 1443 1199 1590 14220 10160 6033 5718 8468 3195 2145 1732 1920 1477 1882 1753 445 4719 2002 1478 1637 4269 17160 5540 1829 2561 10180 1780 2318 8851 1928 1112 1972 2657 3472 2197 5815

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.