COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-09-22

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date	04-15	04-21	08-30	04-29	04-09	04-16	04-17	04-10	03-28	03-25	04-23	03-28	04-18	03-27	05-14	04-02	04-18	03-30	--	09-09	--	04-12	04-18	--	04-02	04-19	04-04	--	05-03	04-20	03-26	03-26	03-30	04-16	04-26	03-27	05-11	09-07	04-15	--	--	--	04-08	03-28	08-31	04-08	04-21	03-29	04-17	09-07	04-16	04-03	03-30	05-05	--	05-06	05-03	05-08	--	04-17	04-11	05-03	09-11	04-02	--	--	--	04-20	03-27	04-03	04-22	03-31	03-25	03-23	04-18	04-16	04-19	05-13	04-10	03-27	04-23	04-25	04-17	04-15	04-12	04-21	04-21	04-16	04-16	04-22	04-16	04-23	03-24	03-30	03-25	03-25	04-17	--	04-18	04-28	05-11	03-27	--	--	04-16	04-19	04-15	03-30	05-11	03-28	04-05	--	03-29	04-15	04-20	03-26	03-25	04-20	03-25	04-23	--	04-25	04-18	03-26	07-01	03-23	04-13	03-26	04-13	04-19	03-24	05-03	--	04-17	04-21	03-15	03-21	05-03	04-10	04-22	04-07	--	--	03-25	03-26	--	06-14	04-13	03-25	03-25	08-25	--	03-29	04-27	03-22	03-30	--	05-24	03-29	03-23	05-04	03-25	03-27	04-23	04-22	03-27	04-21	05-05	03-30	--	--	04-29	03-25	04-20	04-18	--	04-26	03-25	04-18	05-04	04-22	--	04-08	04-10	08-02	--	04-20	04-14	04-22	--	--	03-31	--	04-29	04-14	04-14	--	04-07	03-30	04-21	04-10	04-05	--	03-19	04-21	--	04-20	--	05-14	04-17	09-10	04-13	04-14	04-05	05-07	04-20	--	--	04-18	04-22	--	09-08	03-26	03-23	04-20	04-23	--	05-26	03-23	04-15	04-01	04-17	03-25	04-28	04-29	03-24	04-22	03-27	05-09	04-16	04-26	03-21	--	04-18	03-27	03-27	04-14	03-29	--	04-15	04-14	03-30	--	--	04-24	04-10	03-30	--	04-06	04-05	08-29	07-26	--	03-21	04-07	04-15	05-12	04-14	04-22	04-02	04-13	04-17	03-25	04-11	04-17	04-06	03-25	--	05-13	04-27	03-25	04-22	--	03-23	03-24	--	03-24	04-03	04-13	04-18	08-02	05-10	04-07	04-18	04-20	09-11	04-19	04-14	03-17	--	05-03	04-15	09-02	--	04-14	04-14	--	04-15	04-16	08-30	03-29	04-20	04-13	04-21
Peak daily increment	5	8	12	18	12	22	13	6	19	47	27	27	16	24	24	8	17	30		11		21	6		8	20	8		11	9	52	7	13	25	12	38	21	13	9				6	19	9	15	25	6	19	18	16	12	12	40		9	14	7		23	8	7	30	4				11	49	9	15	18	5	19	9	35	15	11	25	34	4	7	15	8	5	11	40	12	18	15	10	6	8	25	14	8	8		6	11	13	4			7	14	7	10	14	25	13		6	33	6	21	10	12	30	6		2	9	28	43	13	7	24	9	11	23	29		20	16	16	16	18	23	43	16			39	32		75	6	37	8	10		22	24	4	5		17	24	3	4	24	10	10	13	20	18	12	8			17	43	4	12		10	6	18	15	19		10	5	68		7	25	13			21		33	18	12		22	29	14	9	17		15	11		7		4	29	12	6	7	14	2	3			21	7		8	8	69	21	18		15	4	7	6	17	3	25	7	15	18	5	18	10	8	8		17	15	44	8	12		18	7	7			27	14	9		9	28	12	16		7	7	7	11	14	10	6	21	7	11	6	9	6	25		10	15	9	28		28	32		9	12	12	8	7	8	11	2	14	4	11	14	19		37	10	12		8	15		12	10	11	6	16	10	30
Days from 100 to peak	-2	21	146	19	7	18	20	-4	10	14	34	8	25	9	40	2	25	13		154		13	8		-4	25	4		30	16	15	-6	7	27	18	14	45	161	14				3	13	152	10	28	-7	26	158	23	7	3	44		34	23	37		17	12	12	173	-7				20	15	9	21	7	-21	6	6	25	25	39	24	15	1	17	16	17	3	11	26	18	21	10	15	-3	1	16	3	-3	12		18	19	35	-21			17	20	4	1	40	14	9		-6	31	7	11	-2	18	13	17		-15	19	8	90	2	7	11	10	20	9	31		16	6	0	7	32	11	21	18			15	8		85	9	12	-2	131		8	30	-30	-8		44	8	-47	-11	11	-29	11	26	3	32	38	0			27	10	-8	19		22	-10	16	17	20		4	5	132		11	24	29			7		29	16	21		13	14	25	8	15		1	3		10		21	28	156	10	10	7	-77	-10			14	13		145	-4	12	28	35		48	-12	14	1	24	-130	14	22	7	14	-14	43	13	13	-4		27	3	18	13	5		11	5	-5			29	14	-3		6	19	153	119		-10	6	3	44	15	24	-3	15	18	1	9	13		9		36	19	-3	31		7	14		-4	9	14	16	106	36	12		24	138	20	5	7		42	23	161		10	19		13	9	154	1	19	14	21
Days from peak/2 to peak	31	43	176	43	30	32	38	30	22	21	43	17	36	24	56	25	36	24		185		27	41		17	40	27		52	37	21	17	30	39	43	21	62	182	40				33	26	175	24	41	24	40	177	43	24	21	55		59	54	67		33	30	49	186	35				41	21	33	36	21	20	16	40	33	42	61	34	24	39	61	39	45	29	41	38	38	36	39	39	44	19	26	17	15	42		43	46	61	14			43	37	39	17	57	23	31		24	41	47	22	13	39	21	44		44	42	18	106	17	43	22	34	43	21	49		33	36	11	25	51	26	30	32			22	14		91	33	20	19	163		19	43	11	18		72	21	16	54	22	10	40	43	11	44	60	18			44	17	28	43		45	16	32	50	37		31	35	138		40	39	50			26		44	34	39		28	22	37	29	29		13	34		36		63	36	185	38	37	25	53	42			32	46		177	14	16	42	50		71	21	42	27	42	27	40	53	20	38	18	59	35	43	16		41	16	25	35	27		26	36	24			40	32	18		24	29	172	136		10	28	47	61	31	48	26	30	41	17	37	50	26	21		62	45	17	40		16	22		13	20	37	41	141	62	30	52	35	184	44	32	18		55	43	182		39	41		34	32	172	28	35	36	36
Last total	244	463	591	418	734	1398	913	303	1134	2216	2387	717	988	1019	712	505	1599	1319	10405	772	2523	1310	454	4364	527	1143	497	8316	568	556	2214	372	1037	1767	470	1829	672	415	615	1055	2391	1626	448	1012	432	792	862	427	1517	1138	866	526	822	2781	2535	604	343	386	895	824	409	510	1246	246	4414	2220	373	519	2219	683	727	800	352	1657	308	2377	754	751	1780	2130	220	294	577	527	318	507	1933	804	967	522	486	246	586	1659	644	404	534	351	364	539	842	197	616	2022	484	642	260	691	467	1237	674	1203	424	1087	520	1161	452	969	1683	318	865	198	433	1394	1000	690	594	1584	682	619	1581	1015	846	766	456	844	827	788	909	1728	939	4099	1751	1857	1040	6840	6801	421	1536	511	428	5061	1996	737	162	299	6424	486	1214	254	209	1137	241	376	707	1359	1119	385	590	550	2782	959	1871	152	720	305	469	323	901	237	1114	1445	409	406	2033	2253	404	1740	1063	722	3912	1155	1256	1791	902	648	2096	946	1751	903	494	902	301	772	331	3097	348	614	230	2580	595	438	545	673	129	167	2775	2985	710	445	2437	500	452	5734	1698	896	1519	499	288	456	524	977	141	746	534	697	392	338	696	748	390	533	1672	1111	860	1905	474	743	1889	738	466	418	2513	1291	1989	630	336	2866	515	1193	635	1364	2778	446	397	251	797	697	593	307	959	463	696	433	335	70	1360	2135	581	367	592	2560	2132	1422	1696	2153	561	735	589	549	490	548	585	82	993	247	610	620	1144	3113	1602	541	646	3429	474	709	2133	507	530	559	622	828	516	1201
Last daily increment	0	3	2	3	4	3	1	0	18	15	10	6	12	4	2	8	13	10	240	5	44	13	3	107	1	6	8	113	1	0	20	2	6	11	0	9	5	10	3	39	55	26	3	7	5	14	12	2	10	7	4	5	3	28	24	1	3	3	10	1	6	1	30	0	71	31	11	2	11	2	5	2	3	11	0	12	1	0	18	23	0	0	2	3	0	3	13	2	5	0	1	2	3	13	9	0	6	21	1	0	1	3	12	45	3	9	0	6	3	16	5	45	7	10	4	10	5	14	14	1	19	0	5	17	1	3	11	21	9	3	15	3	22	2	0	8	2	1	3	6	6	76	42	15	9	134	56	0	5	2	2	175	15	2	1	0	161	1	2	1	4	6	0	1	4	22	8	1	3	4	89	5	15	3	2	6	7	3	10	0	8	30	2	6	9	59	2	19	6	4	49	4	28	7	6	8	54	11	26	13	6	1	9	8	9	55	3	11	1	28	7	8	2	1	0	2	59	50	7	2	70	4	3	53	14	17	24	0	3	1	1	5	2	3	3	8	1	2	3	13	2	8	37	6	9	17	6	9	50	6	0	3	33	15	13	3	2	77	7	12	2	1	54	1	2	1	6	0	2	2	0	4	9	0	1	0	25	28	4	2	5	24	25	19	16	57	6	4	11	2	3	1	5	0	22	1	2	1	17	77	6	0	5	67	4	4	28	5	6	1	2	9	9	22
Last week	10	22	44	17	36	11	21	6	100	92	81	40	41	20	17	30	59	67	1471	42	252	80	25	602	6	62	25	713	12	11	95	26	20	83	10	54	27	28	34	173	319	159	15	48	28	24	31	24	61	72	14	22	15	136	147	18	8	13	63	25	17	17	149	3	379	219	41	10	60	20	42	12	13	84	14	114	20	1	131	99	1	10	10	24	13	11	85	22	15	9	8	6	22	89	41	9	34	46	14	7	9	6	58	273	17	32	6	31	19	52	18	219	32	37	30	69	20	63	63	10	89	9	18	88	12	30	35	96	31	14	66	19	123	10	7	55	22	15	13	43	32	363	308	75	43	767	365	7	46	23	24	1002	112	12	2	11	866	24	36	6	14	23	2	6	10	106	42	7	20	37	569	25	128	5	22	30	15	20	59	2	51	220	15	25	55	325	21	122	48	45	347	42	158	45	58	37	223	27	153	59	23	15	34	29	24	336	17	79	5	155	56	24	28	10	2	7	320	320	35	9	349	43	11	363	67	56	146	10	16	12	25	31	13	5	21	28	7	11	11	56	9	34	272	31	37	92	20	44	230	40	14	12	194	111	80	23	21	431	20	41	11	26	272	17	10	5	39	7	13	11	4	18	30	18	10	0	124	162	20	13	16	167	197	87	78	273	29	18	30	6	15	18	25	2	73	22	8	14	54	343	42	6	31	434	20	24	168	33	25	32	39	46	33	94
Days since peak	160	154	23	146	166	159	158	165	178	181	152	178	157	179	131	173	157	176		13		163	157		173	156	171		142	155	180	180	176	159	149	179	134	15	160				167	178	22	167	154	177	158	15	159	172	176	140		139	142	137		158	164	142	11	173				155	179	172	153	175	181	183	157	159	156	132	165	179	152	150	158	160	163	154	154	159	159	153	159	152	182	176	181	181	158		157	147	134	179			159	156	160	176	134	178	170		177	160	155	180	181	155	181	152		150	157	180	83	183	162	180	162	156	182	142		158	154	191	185	142	165	153	168			181	180		100	162	181	181	28		177	148	184	176		121	177	183	141	181	179	152	153	179	154	140	176			146	181	155	157		149	181	157	141	153		167	165	51		155	161	153			175		146	161	161		168	176	154	165	170		187	154		155		131	158	12	162	161	170	138	155			157	153		14	180	183	155	152		119	183	160	174	158	181	147	146	182	153	179	136	159	149	185		157	179	179	161	177		160	161	176			151	165	176		169	170	24	58		185	168	160	133	161	153	173	162	158	181	164	158	169	181		132	148	181	153		183	182		182	172	162	157	51	135	168	157	155	11	156	161	189		142	160	20		161	161		160	159	23	177	155	162	154

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-09-23 to 2020-09-29

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dudley	Ealing	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-22	244	463	591	418	734	1398	913	303	1134	2216	2387	717	988	1019	712	505	1599	1319	10405	772	2523	1310	454	4364	527	1143	497	8316	568	556	2214	372	1037	1767	470	1829	672	415	615	1055	2391	1626	448	1012	432	792	862	427	1517	1138	866	526	822	2781	2535	604	343	386	895	824	409	510	1246	4414	2220	373	519	2219	683	727	800	352	1657	308	2377	754	1780	2130	294	577	527	318	507	1933	804	967	522	486	246	586	1659	644	404	534	351	364	539	842	197	616	2022	484	642	260	691	467	1237	674	1203	424	1087	520	1161	452	969	1683	318	865	198	433	1394	1000	690	594	1584	682	619	1581	1015	846	766	456	844	827	788	909	1728	939	4099	1751	1857	1040	6840	6801	421	1536	511	428	5061	1996	737	299	6424	486	1214	254	209	1137	376	707	1359	1119	385	590	550	2782	959	1871	720	305	469	323	901	1114	1445	409	406	2033	2253	404	1740	1063	722	3912	1155	1256	1791	902	648	2096	946	1751	903	494	902	301	772	331	3097	348	614	2580	595	438	545	673	167	2775	2985	710	445	2437	500	452	5734	1698	896	1519	499	288	456	524	977	141	534	697	392	338	696	748	390	533	1672	1111	860	1905	474	743	1889	738	466	418	2513	1291	1989	630	336	2866	515	1193	635	1364	2778	446	397	797	697	593	307	463	696	433	335	1360	2135	581	367	592	2560	2132	1422	1696	2153	561	735	589	549	490	548	585	993	247	610	620	1144	3113	1602	541	646	3429	474	709	2133	507	530	559	622	828	516	1201
2020-09-23	246	465	597	420	740	1399	916	304	1146	2224	2398	722	993	1021	714	509	1599	1334	10650	780	2571	1323	458	4456	528	1153	501	8428	570	558	2226	375	1042	1778	471	1836	676	423	621	1088	2446	1652	450	1018	436	800	870	430	1524	1149	869	526	825	2781	2560	607	345	388	903	827	411	513	1274	4477	2257	382	520	2228	685	727	802	354	1668	309	2403	757	1800	2133	295	579	530	320	509	1938	808	969	522	487	247	589	1672	648	406	538	361	366	540	842	198	626	2063	487	650	261	694	470	1244	677	1268	428	1097	524	1171	452	977	1692	319	881	199	438	1406	1003	696	600	1596	686	622	1593	1018	874	767	457	852	832	791	911	1733	943	4219	1766	1869	1046	6990	6859	422	1544	514	432	5240	2013	739	301	6603	489	1214	255	211	1141	377	709	1385	1125	386	593	558	2868	963	1888	724	311	472	326	908	1114	1458	409	409	2042	2293	406	1757	1071	722	3999	1161	1271	1798	909	652	2166	950	1771	915	499	905	308	777	337	3166	350	617	2604	604	441	550	675	168	2852	3037	716	446	2500	507	454	5748	1706	902	1545	500	290	458	528	983	142	537	700	393	340	698	756	391	538	1709	1115	864	1917	478	750	1945	744	468	421	2571	1310	2001	633	338	2935	517	1204	638	1366	2845	449	399	802	698	594	308	465	700	435	336	1360	2177	584	369	594	2582	2165	1434	1708	2218	565	738	592	551	492	551	587	1002	251	611	623	1151	3203	1608	542	650	3505	477	712	2162	510	534	563	626	836	521	1220
2020-09-24	248	468	602	423	745	1400	919	304	1157	2237	2408	728	998	1023	716	513	1599	1348	10890	789	2620	1336	461	4545	529	1163	504	8596	571	559	2238	377	1046	1788	473	1843	680	429	626	1109	2502	1679	452	1025	439	807	878	433	1530	1160	871	526	828	2798	2585	610	347	389	911	830	412	516	1301	4537	2295	391	521	2236	687	727	805	356	1678	311	2422	760	1820	2144	296	580	532	322	511	1942	812	971	522	488	248	592	1685	652	408	542	377	368	541	844	199	635	2102	490	657	261	696	472	1251	679	1332	432	1101	528	1181	452	985	1702	320	896	201	443	1418	1005	701	605	1608	690	625	1605	1020	901	769	458	860	836	795	912	1737	948	4323	1793	1879	1051	7143	6914	423	1552	518	436	5449	2029	741	303	6787	493	1214	256	213	1146	378	711	1408	1131	387	595	566	2959	966	1904	727	316	475	330	913	1121	1469	409	411	2052	2359	409	1773	1079	722	4090	1166	1298	1804	916	656	2226	953	1790	926	503	908	314	781	343	3235	351	629	2627	614	445	555	677	169	2903	3097	721	448	2582	513	455	5762	1714	907	1571	502	292	461	531	988	143	541	703	395	341	700	764	392	543	1747	1119	869	1929	481	756	1998	749	471	424	2632	1329	2013	637	340	3004	519	1213	641	1369	2907	452	401	806	699	595	309	468	703	437	337	1373	2215	586	371	596	2603	2198	1444	1718	2266	569	742	595	552	495	555	589	1011	254	613	627	1159	3291	1613	542	654	3591	479	715	2189	514	538	567	630	843	525	1237
2020-09-25	249	470	607	425	750	1402	922	305	1169	2250	2418	733	1003	1025	719	516	1608	1361	11140	797	2669	1349	464	4635	530	1173	507	8754	572	561	2250	379	1051	1799	474	1851	684	436	632	1140	2559	1706	454	1034	442	815	885	436	1537	1171	874	528	831	2822	2609	613	349	391	918	832	414	519	1327	4596	2333	400	522	2245	690	727	807	358	1688	312	2433	763	1839	2162	297	582	535	324	513	1947	816	973	523	489	249	595	1697	656	409	545	394	370	542	845	200	645	2141	493	665	262	699	475	1258	682	1379	436	1107	532	1191	452	993	1711	321	911	202	448	1429	1008	707	610	1619	694	627	1616	1022	928	770	459	867	841	798	914	1742	952	4422	1823	1891	1056	7299	6969	424	1559	521	439	5652	2045	743	306	6973	496	1214	257	215	1150	379	713	1431	1137	388	598	573	3077	970	1921	731	321	478	333	920	1127	1481	410	413	2061	2422	411	1790	1086	722	4186	1171	1327	1811	923	660	2288	956	1809	938	508	911	321	786	348	3306	353	638	2649	623	448	560	679	170	2970	3152	727	449	2662	520	457	5777	1721	913	1598	503	294	463	535	994	144	544	706	396	343	701	772	394	548	1786	1123	873	1940	485	762	2039	754	473	427	2695	1346	2025	640	342	3076	521	1222	645	1373	2981	454	403	811	700	596	310	470	706	439	338	1390	2252	589	373	598	2624	2231	1455	1730	2320	572	745	598	554	497	558	592	1019	257	614	630	1166	3375	1619	543	658	3668	482	717	2222	517	543	571	635	850	529	1255
2020-09-26	251	472	613	427	755	1403	924	306	1179	2261	2428	738	1007	1026	721	520	1617	1374	11400	806	2720	1361	468	4723	531	1182	511	8897	574	562	2260	382	1056	1809	476	1858	688	442	637	1173	2617	1733	455	1039	446	822	892	439	1543	1182	876	532	834	2836	2633	616	350	393	925	835	416	522	1353	4652	2372	409	522	2253	692	727	809	359	1698	313	2446	766	1858	2174	297	583	538	326	515	1951	820	975	523	490	250	598	1710	660	411	549	410	371	543	845	201	654	2179	495	672	263	701	478	1265	684	1428	440	1114	535	1201	452	1000	1720	322	925	203	452	1441	1011	712	615	1630	697	630	1628	1025	956	772	460	875	846	801	916	1747	956	4522	1863	1901	1061	7459	7022	425	1567	524	443	5846	2061	745	308	7165	499	1214	259	217	1154	380	715	1453	1143	389	601	581	3178	974	1936	735	326	481	336	925	1136	1492	410	415	2070	2477	414	1805	1094	722	4285	1177	1367	1817	929	664	2350	959	1827	948	512	913	328	790	354	3378	354	645	2672	633	451	564	681	171	3025	3206	732	450	2715	526	458	5791	1728	918	1625	504	295	465	538	999	145	548	708	397	345	703	779	395	553	1826	1127	877	1951	488	768	2094	759	475	430	2761	1363	2036	643	343	3148	522	1231	647	1375	3047	457	405	815	701	597	312	472	709	441	339	1404	2283	591	375	600	2644	2263	1465	1740	2382	576	748	601	556	499	561	594	1027	260	615	633	1173	3446	1624	543	662	3736	484	720	2246	520	546	574	639	857	533	1271
2020-09-27	253	474	618	429	761	1404	927	306	1190	2272	2438	744	1012	1028	723	523	1625	1387	11660	814	2772	1374	471	4812	531	1192	514	9052	575	564	2271	384	1060	1819	477	1864	691	447	643	1202	2676	1762	457	1049	449	829	899	442	1549	1193	878	537	837	2850	2657	619	352	394	932	838	417	525	1379	4709	2412	418	523	2262	694	727	810	361	1708	314	2466	769	1877	2186	298	584	540	328	517	1955	824	978	523	491	251	601	1722	664	413	553	431	373	544	847	202	664	2217	498	680	263	703	480	1272	687	1484	443	1116	539	1210	452	1008	1729	323	939	204	457	1452	1013	718	620	1642	701	633	1639	1027	984	773	460	882	850	804	917	1751	960	4614	1905	1912	1066	7622	7075	426	1574	528	446	6041	2076	746	310	7362	503	1214	260	219	1158	381	716	1474	1149	389	603	588	3307	977	1952	738	330	484	340	931	1139	1503	410	417	2080	2537	416	1821	1101	722	4386	1182	1400	1823	936	668	2414	962	1846	959	516	916	335	794	359	3452	356	649	2694	643	455	569	683	171	3068	3253	737	452	2772	533	459	5806	1735	923	1653	506	297	468	542	1005	146	551	711	399	346	705	787	396	558	1867	1130	881	1962	492	774	2129	765	478	433	2828	1380	2048	646	345	3221	524	1240	650	1379	3119	460	407	819	702	598	313	475	712	443	340	1416	2316	594	377	602	2664	2295	1475	1751	2446	579	751	604	557	502	564	596	1035	264	617	637	1180	3520	1629	544	666	3798	487	723	2263	523	550	578	643	863	537	1288
2020-09-28	255	477	623	431	766	1405	930	307	1201	2292	2448	749	1016	1030	725	527	1632	1400	11930	822	2825	1387	474	4902	532	1202	518	9224	576	565	2282	386	1065	1829	479	1871	695	453	648	1237	2736	1790	459	1056	452	837	905	445	1556	1204	881	538	840	2872	2681	622	354	396	939	840	419	528	1404	4766	2453	426	524	2270	696	727	812	363	1717	316	2482	772	1896	2204	299	586	543	330	519	1959	828	980	524	492	253	604	1734	668	414	556	448	375	545	849	203	673	2254	501	687	264	706	483	1278	689	1532	447	1122	542	1220	452	1015	1738	324	954	205	461	1464	1016	723	625	1653	704	635	1651	1029	1014	774	461	890	855	808	919	1756	965	4705	1957	1923	1071	7789	7129	427	1582	531	450	6220	2092	748	312	7565	506	1214	261	221	1163	382	718	1496	1154	390	606	596	3432	981	1968	741	335	487	343	937	1151	1515	410	419	2089	2619	418	1837	1109	722	4490	1188	1443	1830	942	672	2480	965	1864	970	521	919	342	799	365	3528	357	653	2716	652	458	574	685	172	3121	3294	743	453	2847	539	461	5820	1742	928	1681	507	299	470	545	1010	147	554	713	400	348	706	794	397	563	1908	1134	885	1972	496	781	2177	770	480	436	2897	1397	2059	649	347	3297	525	1248	653	1385	3189	463	409	823	703	599	314	477	715	445	340	1441	2352	596	379	604	2685	2327	1485	1762	2503	583	754	606	559	504	568	598	1043	267	618	640	1187	3585	1635	545	670	3873	489	725	2300	526	554	581	647	870	541	1304
2020-09-29	256	479	629	433	771	1406	933	307	1212	2305	2458	754	1021	1032	727	530	1641	1413	12200	831	2879	1399	478	4993	533	1212	521	9385	578	567	2293	388	1070	1840	480	1878	699	459	654	1277	2798	1819	461	1064	456	844	912	448	1562	1215	883	541	842	2891	2705	625	356	398	946	843	420	531	1430	4823	2494	435	525	2279	698	727	814	365	1727	317	2499	775	1915	2220	300	587	545	332	521	1963	832	982	524	493	254	606	1747	672	416	560	463	376	546	850	204	683	2292	504	695	265	708	485	1285	691	1574	451	1130	546	1230	452	1022	1747	326	968	207	466	1475	1019	729	630	1664	708	638	1662	1032	1043	776	462	897	860	811	920	1760	969	4799	2009	1933	1076	7960	7183	428	1589	534	453	6404	2108	750	315	7773	510	1214	262	223	1167	382	720	1518	1160	391	608	604	3518	984	1984	745	340	490	346	942	1159	1526	411	421	2098	2678	421	1853	1116	722	4597	1193	1472	1836	949	676	2548	968	1883	980	525	922	349	803	370	3605	359	666	2739	662	461	579	687	173	3173	3344	748	454	2920	545	462	5834	1749	933	1710	508	300	472	548	1016	148	558	716	401	350	708	802	398	568	1951	1138	888	1983	499	787	2231	775	482	439	2968	1415	2071	652	349	3374	527	1257	656	1386	3257	465	411	827	704	600	315	479	718	447	341	1460	2378	599	381	606	2705	2360	1495	1772	2564	587	757	609	561	506	571	600	1052	270	619	644	1194	3644	1640	545	674	3963	492	728	2329	529	558	585	651	877	546	1321

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-09-23 to 2020-09-29

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dudley	Ealing	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-09-22	244	463	591	418	734	1398	913	303	1134	2216	2387	717	988	1019	712	505	1599	1319	10405	772	2523	1310	454	4364	527	1143	497	8316	568	556	2214	372	1037	1767	470	1829	672	415	615	1055	2391	1626	448	1012	432	792	862	427	1517	1138	866	526	822	2781	2535	604	343	386	895	824	409	510	1246	4414	2220	373	519	2219	683	727	800	352	1657	308	2377	754	1780	2130	294	577	527	318	507	1933	804	967	522	486	246	586	1659	644	404	534	351	364	539	842	197	616	2022	484	642	260	691	467	1237	674	1203	424	1087	520	1161	452	969	1683	318	865	198	433	1394	1000	690	594	1584	682	619	1581	1015	846	766	456	844	827	788	909	1728	939	4099	1751	1857	1040	6840	6801	421	1536	511	428	5061	1996	737	299	6424	486	1214	254	209	1137	376	707	1359	1119	385	590	550	2782	959	1871	720	305	469	323	901	1114	1445	409	406	2033	2253	404	1740	1063	722	3912	1155	1256	1791	902	648	2096	946	1751	903	494	902	301	772	331	3097	348	614	2580	595	438	545	673	167	2775	2985	710	445	2437	500	452	5734	1698	896	1519	499	288	456	524	977	141	534	697	392	338	696	748	390	533	1672	1111	860	1905	474	743	1889	738	466	418	2513	1291	1989	630	336	2866	515	1193	635	1364	2778	446	397	797	697	593	307	463	696	433	335	1360	2135	581	367	592	2560	2132	1422	1696	2153	561	735	589	549	490	548	585	993	247	610	620	1144	3113	1602	541	646	3429	474	709	2133	507	530	559	622	828	516	1201
2020-09-23	246	465	596	419	738	1399	915	303	1139	2219	2394	721	989	1020	714	506	1600	1323	10650	779	2580	1323	457	4432	528	1152	498	8455	568	557	2218	373	1041	1772	471	1832	673	418	619	1068	2439	1653	449	1017	435	793	863	429	1522	1145	867	526	824	2785	2550	606	344	387	902	827	409	512	1255	4437	2254	378	519	2224	684	729	801	353	1667	309	2398	756	1794	2134	294	578	528	319	509	1939	807	967	522	487	247	588	1669	647	406	537	353	365	539	842	198	622	2058	485	644	260	692	468	1239	675	1225	427	1093	522	1168	453	971	1687	319	872	199	435	1401	1002	694	596	1589	683	621	1591	1017	866	767	457	848	831	791	910	1731	942	4182	1786	1860	1043	6983	6850	421	1544	514	431	5208	2006	738	300	6564	490	1215	254	210	1141	377	708	1362	1122	385	591	554	2845	961	1880	723	307	471	325	904	1116	1465	411	407	2039	2283	406	1749	1068	730	3970	1159	1266	1793	905	650	2137	947	1769	906	496	904	303	774	332	3135	349	626	2594	604	440	549	674	167	2834	3030	713	446	2468	506	452	5764	1701	898	1535	500	288	459	527	982	141	537	698	393	339	696	753	391	538	1712	1114	861	1909	476	748	1938	743	468	420	2545	1301	1999	633	337	2921	515	1195	636	1365	2825	449	399	799	698	595	307	465	696	434	335	1361	2156	582	368	593	2571	2152	1426	1701	2203	563	738	590	550	492	550	586	998	250	611	621	1145	3157	1605	541	649	3512	475	710	2162	508	532	560	625	834	518	1207
2020-09-24	248	467	601	421	742	1400	918	304	1152	2228	2405	726	991	1021	715	507	1603	1327	10910	788	2632	1336	460	4533	528	1162	501	8622	569	558	2227	375	1047	1780	472	1839	675	422	624	1091	2499	1682	451	1024	439	794	864	432	1527	1155	869	527	825	2797	2570	608	345	388	909	829	410	515	1266	4478	2294	386	520	2232	686	733	804	354	1679	310	2419	760	1811	2143	295	579	530	321	511	1946	811	968	523	488	248	590	1682	649	407	541	357	367	540	843	199	630	2106	487	647	261	693	470	1242	675	1259	431	1098	525	1177	455	975	1695	319	882	200	437	1415	1004	700	600	1599	685	624	1603	1019	889	768	457	855	835	794	912	1734	947	4265	1835	1864	1047	7126	6901	422	1551	518	434	5384	2018	739	302	6723	494	1217	255	211	1145	377	709	1369	1127	386	593	561	2917	964	1896	727	309	473	328	909	1120	1498	412	407	2047	2332	408	1766	1074	741	4039	1164	1284	1797	910	654	2178	948	1788	909	497	907	305	777	334	3207	350	643	2616	615	442	554	676	167	2891	3092	717	447	2526	512	453	5809	1707	899	1562	501	290	460	531	988	142	540	699	394	341	697	759	392	542	1758	1118	864	1916	478	755	1989	749	470	423	2587	1313	2009	637	338	2986	515	1197	638	1367	2878	451	401	802	698	596	308	467	698	436	336	1367	2183	583	370	594	2590	2180	1436	1709	2250	566	741	591	551	494	554	586	1006	254	612	626	1151	3213	1610	542	654	3608	476	711	2193	510	536	562	629	842	521	1217
2020-09-25	250	469	607	423	747	1401	922	304	1162	2239	2415	730	993	1023	717	509	1607	1331	11180	797	2683	1349	463	4630	529	1172	504	8781	569	560	2238	377	1052	1790	474	1846	678	425	629	1120	2554	1710	452	1033	442	795	865	436	1532	1166	870	528	827	2817	2591	611	347	389	913	833	411	518	1278	4525	2334	392	521	2241	689	736	806	356	1691	311	2434	763	1828	2155	296	580	532	324	513	1954	816	970	524	488	249	592	1695	653	410	546	361	369	541	843	199	639	2153	489	650	262	695	472	1247	676	1290	435	1104	529	1187	458	982	1701	321	891	201	439	1429	1006	705	605	1612	687	625	1614	1021	912	769	458	862	840	797	914	1738	951	4348	1885	1872	1053	7268	6963	422	1559	522	438	5566	2030	741	303	6887	498	1220	256	212	1149	378	711	1376	1133	386	596	567	3002	967	1911	730	311	476	331	915	1125	1532	414	408	2055	2389	410	1783	1080	751	4110	1169	1306	1802	915	657	2225	948	1808	914	499	910	309	781	335	3286	352	658	2638	626	445	559	678	168	2957	3148	721	448	2586	518	454	5857	1714	902	1589	502	292	463	535	994	143	544	700	395	343	699	766	393	547	1806	1124	868	1926	481	761	2027	755	473	426	2630	1326	2020	640	340	3058	516	1200	640	1370	2935	454	402	807	699	598	309	469	701	438	336	1376	2211	586	371	595	2611	2208	1446	1722	2300	569	744	591	552	497	557	588	1013	257	613	629	1159	3269	1615	543	660	3698	477	712	2229	515	540	564	634	850	525	1228
2020-09-26	252	471	613	425	751	1402	924	305	1174	2249	2425	735	996	1024	719	512	1614	1335	11450	807	2731	1362	467	4737	530	1181	507	8929	570	561	2249	379	1056	1800	475	1853	680	429	634	1150	2607	1741	454	1039	446	796	866	439	1537	1176	872	530	828	2834	2612	613	348	390	923	835	412	521	1295	4575	2375	399	521	2248	690	740	807	357	1702	313	2447	766	1845	2167	297	581	534	326	514	1962	819	972	524	489	250	594	1707	657	411	550	366	371	543	844	200	648	2199	491	653	262	697	474	1253	678	1321	439	1111	532	1196	460	988	1708	322	901	202	442	1440	1008	710	610	1624	690	627	1626	1024	936	770	459	870	842	800	916	1742	955	4431	1939	1881	1056	7415	7021	423	1567	526	442	5742	2042	742	304	7054	502	1224	257	214	1153	379	713	1384	1138	387	599	573	3095	971	1929	733	313	479	334	920	1131	1565	416	409	2064	2445	412	1799	1087	762	4190	1175	1340	1805	921	662	2280	950	1828	919	501	912	314	785	337	3330	353	675	2661	637	447	563	679	168	3020	3205	726	449	2639	525	455	5904	1722	906	1620	503	294	465	538	999	143	548	702	397	344	700	774	394	551	1855	1128	872	1935	483	767	2076	761	476	429	2676	1339	2029	644	343	3131	517	1203	642	1372	2993	457	404	811	700	600	309	472	703	440	337	1387	2239	588	373	597	2630	2236	1457	1731	2353	572	747	592	553	499	560	590	1020	261	614	631	1165	3323	1620	544	664	3773	479	714	2262	518	544	566	638	857	529	1239
2020-09-27	253	473	619	427	756	1403	927	305	1186	2258	2435	740	1000	1026	721	515	1621	1339	11730	816	2780	1376	470	4822	531	1190	510	9081	570	562	2261	382	1062	1809	476	1860	683	433	639	1180	2660	1771	455	1047	449	798	867	441	1542	1187	873	533	830	2848	2632	616	349	391	933	838	413	524	1308	4629	2417	405	522	2255	692	745	809	359	1713	314	2466	769	1863	2178	297	583	536	328	515	1970	823	974	526	490	251	597	1720	661	412	553	372	372	544	845	201	657	2245	493	656	263	699	477	1259	679	1353	444	1115	536	1207	463	995	1715	323	911	203	444	1452	1012	715	615	1636	694	629	1638	1026	961	771	460	877	847	804	917	1745	960	4506	1995	1890	1058	7557	7057	424	1575	530	445	5918	2056	744	307	7226	506	1228	258	216	1157	380	714	1393	1144	387	601	580	3195	974	1945	736	316	481	337	926	1136	1601	418	410	2072	2504	414	1816	1094	773	4270	1181	1363	1810	928	666	2325	951	1849	925	503	915	319	788	339	3387	355	688	2685	649	450	568	681	169	3077	3256	733	450	2690	531	456	5952	1729	910	1648	504	295	467	542	1005	144	552	704	398	346	702	782	395	556	1904	1131	876	1942	486	773	2117	767	478	432	2721	1353	2039	647	345	3206	518	1207	643	1375	3048	460	406	815	701	602	310	474	706	442	338	1397	2264	590	375	598	2647	2264	1468	1741	2412	576	750	593	555	501	563	592	1027	265	615	634	1172	3373	1625	544	671	3845	481	717	2292	520	547	568	642	865	533	1251
2020-09-28	255	476	624	429	761	1404	930	306	1197	2273	2445	745	1004	1027	723	519	1626	1344	12010	825	2828	1389	474	4921	531	1200	513	9243	572	564	2272	384	1067	1820	477	1867	686	436	644	1211	2716	1801	457	1055	453	800	868	444	1548	1199	875	535	831	2863	2652	618	351	392	941	841	415	527	1323	4681	2460	412	524	2263	694	750	811	360	1725	315	2484	772	1882	2194	298	585	538	330	517	1977	827	976	527	491	252	600	1733	666	414	557	378	374	545	846	202	665	2291	495	660	264	701	479	1265	680	1387	449	1122	539	1216	465	1003	1722	324	921	204	446	1462	1016	721	620	1648	698	633	1649	1028	986	772	461	885	852	807	918	1749	964	4577	2055	1902	1062	7706	7113	424	1583	534	449	6098	2069	747	309	7403	510	1232	258	218	1162	381	716	1406	1150	388	603	585	3296	978	1963	740	319	484	339	932	1142	1635	420	412	2080	2568	416	1835	1100	785	4352	1186	1389	1815	935	670	2375	953	1871	931	504	917	324	792	341	3454	357	699	2704	660	454	573	683	169	3135	3300	739	451	2755	538	458	6000	1737	914	1678	505	297	469	546	1010	144	555	706	399	348	703	791	396	561	1951	1134	880	1952	489	780	2172	772	481	435	2766	1368	2049	650	346	3284	519	1212	645	1378	3105	463	408	820	702	604	311	477	709	444	338	1412	2290	592	376	599	2666	2293	1479	1752	2468	579	753	594	557	504	567	594	1034	269	616	638	1179	3427	1631	545	676	3932	483	720	2331	524	551	572	646	873	537	1263
2020-09-29	257	478	630	431	765	1406	933	306	1207	2283	2455	749	1008	1028	725	522	1631	1349	12300	835	2881	1403	479	5021	532	1209	517	9401	572	565	2283	386	1074	1830	479	1874	689	442	649	1244	2777	1830	459	1064	457	802	870	447	1554	1210	876	537	832	2878	2672	621	352	393	949	844	417	530	1339	4729	2501	420	525	2271	696	754	813	362	1736	317	2506	775	1900	2206	299	586	541	333	519	1985	831	978	528	492	253	602	1746	670	415	561	384	376	546	846	204	674	2336	497	663	264	704	481	1270	681	1418	453	1128	543	1226	467	1010	1728	325	932	205	448	1474	1020	726	626	1661	702	636	1661	1031	1011	773	462	893	857	810	920	1752	969	4660	2113	1912	1067	7856	7170	425	1590	538	453	6281	2082	749	311	7583	515	1235	259	220	1166	381	717	1418	1156	388	605	590	3395	981	1978	743	321	487	342	938	1149	1669	422	413	2089	2625	418	1851	1107	796	4428	1192	1406	1818	942	674	2432	955	1892	937	506	920	328	795	343	3509	358	716	2726	672	457	578	685	170	3199	3354	743	452	2817	544	459	6049	1745	918	1712	506	299	472	549	1016	145	558	708	401	349	705	798	397	566	2001	1138	884	1959	491	786	2220	779	483	438	2815	1383	2060	653	348	3362	520	1216	647	1380	3165	466	410	824	703	606	312	479	713	446	339	1423	2316	595	377	601	2683	2322	1489	1762	2528	582	756	595	559	506	570	595	1043	273	617	641	1187	3474	1636	545	680	4039	485	722	2366	527	555	574	650	881	542	1274

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-09-22 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-09-22