COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-10-16

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	04-15	10-03	--	04-29	--	04-16	--	--	--	10-04	--	10-05	--	03-27	--	10-02	--	10-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-05	--	--	10-01	--	10-05	10-05	04-26	--	--	--	10-05	10-05	--	--	10-05	10-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	05-03	10-05	--	--	--	--	09-16	10-01	--	--	--	04-20	10-02	--	--	03-30	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	10-04	--	04-17	10-04	--	--	--	--	04-16	04-22	10-05	--	10-04	--	--	--	--	09-27	--	04-28	05-11	--	--	--	--	04-18	04-15	03-30	05-11	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	--	03-25	10-05	10-03	--	--	10-04	04-18	--	07-01	--	10-04	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	04-17	04-21	--	--	--	04-10	10-04	--	--	10-03	--	10-05	10-02	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	04-27	--	10-05	10-02	10-04	09-29	--	--	--	03-27	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	09-27	10-02	--	--	10-05	--	--	10-05	--	--	05-04	04-22	10-02	--	--	10-05	09-27	--	10-04	--	--	--	--	10-04	04-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	10-04	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	--	04-18	--	10-04	--	10-02	10-02	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-05	--	04-28	10-05	--	04-22	10-05	--	--	--	--	09-27	10-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-30	10-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	10-05	09-29	10-04	04-08	10-04	10-05	--	--	04-06	--	10-02	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	--	10-05	10-04	10-03	--	--	--	--	10-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-16	--	--	--	10-05	--
Peak daily increment	5	10		18		22				70		32		24		37		33								87		284			46		44	195	12				62	97			31	52										103			13	17					30	14				11	46			18						10			10		15	27					18	15	16		31					84		11	13					14	7	10	14			72					10	46	46			6	9		43		36					29		20	16				23	49			165		90	522						521		24		9	453	43	16				10		13					59	226			9			15			15	19	79			55	86		563					67	33								17			11				6						11				21		203		14	450						19		47		25	29		18	15					56	28								7	130													14		24	14	7	21	20	37			6		128						42						19				6	90	25					48								10				14
Days since peak	184	13		170		183				12		11		203		14		11								11		11			15		11	11	173				11	11			11	11										12			166	11					30	15				179	14			200						179			12		182	12					183	177	11		12					19		171	158					181	184	200	158			12					205	11	13			12	181		107		12					166		182	178				189	12			13		11	14						11		172		11	14	12	17				203		177					19	14			11			11			165	177	14			11	19		12					12	170								11			178				12						11				181		12		14	14						11		11		171	11		177	11					19	11								200	13													11		11	17	12	191	12	11			193		14						11						11				11	12	13					11								183				11
Last total	306	673	1045	569	1318	1530	1245	435	1751	3442	4368	1258	1441	1245	1137	1053	2046	1810	17430	1194	4372	2401	748	7516	673	2375	703	13904	779	730	3160	563	1689	3573	607	2532	1069	662	1505	2534	4571	3075	780	1750	772	1023	1174	627	1945	2233	1194	740	1141	4605	4379	957	499	644	1700	1151	558	668	1857	407	8943	3932	667	679	3068	1043	1448	966	553	2584	508	4357	1285	879	2813	3495	338	496	765	945	584	743	3283	1149	1251	637	666	392	1080	2647	1004	588	1082	1520	482	665	911	322	1125	3577	1399	873	331	847	746	1864	1018	2718	777	1716	815	2055	601	1717	2530	474	1701	316	568	2168	1202	1034	1099	2564	1035	856	2495	1309	1720	922	540	1542	1291	1017	1084	2569	1476	7309	4887	2795	2256	16278	8832	537	2224	816	808	14878	2661	944	251	461	15333	884	1536	399	343	1575	331	505	907	2582	1587	584	839	1239	7088	1497	3010	275	1213	1001	701	599	1580	327	1436	3007	583	696	2693	4218	735	8698	1404	1079	6681	1785	2444	2261	1385	1202	3728	1284	2962	1773	721	1148	878	1561	517	5921	468	1417	318	4785	930	637	1519	893	259	340	5871	4584	1042	577	6154	877	682	12886	2484	1433	2606	723	520	752	857	1636	244	879	974	1088	573	540	950	1660	538	991	2963	1514	1169	2665	685	1099	4251	1306	788	521	4932	3053	2869	986	491	5618	724	1594	927	1648	4980	670	552	450	1298	1028	822	427	1092	756	1079	610	613	123	2401	4422	788	596	838	4933	3512	2209	2630	4269	1005	1019	918	791	695	802	814	148	2380	556	791	864	1811	6906	2290	777	1119	6383	711	1027	3171	749	640	830	970	1527	786	2753
Last daily increment	2	1	24	3	18	8	15	8	24	47	100	23	18	8	22	15	16	10	202	24	96	44	16	151	8	26	8	189	8	8	44	4	25	47	11	35	18	8	30	34	77	48	14	24	27	13	5	12	24	48	15	1	12	46	81	4	7	10	30	7	2	11	8	3	77	80	6	5	26	9	10	2	9	34	10	97	12	6	41	65	4	2	3	18	16	9	40	7	13	8	6	5	19	68	6	11	24	4	1	3	3	1	19	21	30	4	2	4	15	32	20	26	12	37	13	32	4	28	39	3	13	5	3	28	11	7	18	48	11	7	49	12	21	13	1	31	18	14	10	27	25	98	100	50	56	277	94	1	19	13	13	260	34	6	5	1	260	17	14	0	1	16	0	7	3	31	25	13	3	20	69	21	45	3	9	32	8	14	20	3	0	26	12	10	41	34	23	134	13	12	126	29	47	16	12	11	55	11	46	27	8	12	34	38	2	117	8	41	2	95	12	7	27	10	1	7	115	49	15	3	127	15	9	176	30	25	45	5	11	4	17	13	0	6	12	16	14	7	12	40	0	21	22	4	15	30	7	9	86	23	24	2	95	39	65	10	7	75	12	21	20	4	73	8	5	1	29	9	3	3	9	5	15	6	0	0	45	66	4	5	9	83	50	38	34	60	26	9	12	11	10	14	4	0	52	9	6	14	26	167	10	5	18	72	8	14	39	7	1	7	14	38	8	64
Last week	16	46	155	45	231	41	106	44	189	343	838	172	161	71	173	154	120	146	2042	133	669	390	105	1025	69	355	81	1617	71	67	255	64	192	760	47	241	139	80	286	379	658	469	144	248	168	67	137	78	137	440	106	57	101	522	544	103	46	70	258	139	37	36	111	45	1474	565	61	49	229	97	237	45	55	325	72	748	198	43	355	437	39	64	40	125	112	78	425	124	83	40	70	71	155	358	107	56	216	195	49	40	20	33	162	363	361	60	17	43	79	195	105	343	98	218	88	269	53	231	244	51	258	28	39	263	73	99	180	314	110	68	282	79	245	54	28	234	169	79	43	260	189	986	876	308	442	2458	700	37	181	107	139	2471	249	65	30	34	1956	190	97	48	40	147	26	53	56	348	133	61	89	174	824	160	349	44	164	300	68	88	216	33	84	346	57	84	255	448	127	1832	103	124	870	164	337	143	181	198	484	118	341	310	83	85	204	245	43	912	46	312	25	785	92	66	338	85	31	51	958	526	88	58	1011	135	62	1898	233	182	348	58	75	73	130	214	37	46	135	108	62	71	87	311	38	166	280	120	110	219	56	83	626	197	138	37	694	555	355	111	53	756	56	146	129	95	692	92	48	54	207	121	61	38	44	91	160	52	85	15	330	616	58	57	78	813	431	233	285	598	177	87	104	76	69	103	64	22	441	61	59	82	212	1267	224	62	163	738	68	105	366	59	35	82	100	249	63	522
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	07-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-29	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																					20							56			51																							40											68				49																																																																													75	80												23																										68																																																																														31
Low between peaks																												27			2																							2															1																																																																													6													0																										7

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-17 to 2020-10-23

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-16	306	673	1045	569	1318	1530	1245	435	1751	3442	4368	1258	1441	1245	1137	1053	2046	1810	17430	1194	4372	2401	748	7516	673	2375	703	13904	779	730	3160	563	1689	3573	607	2532	1069	662	1505	2534	4571	3075	780	1750	772	1023	1174	627	1945	2233	1194	740	1141	4605	4379	957	499	644	1700	1151	558	668	1857	407	8943	3932	667	679	3068	1043	1448	966	553	2584	508	4357	1285	879	2813	3495	338	496	765	945	584	743	3283	1149	1251	637	666	392	1080	2647	1004	588	1082	1520	482	665	911	322	1125	3577	1399	873	331	847	746	1864	1018	2718	777	1716	815	2055	601	1717	2530	474	1701	316	568	2168	1202	1034	1099	2564	1035	856	2495	1309	1720	922	540	1542	1291	1017	1084	2569	1476	7309	4887	2795	2256	16278	8832	537	2224	816	808	14878	2661	944	251	461	15333	884	1536	399	343	1575	331	505	907	2582	1587	584	839	1239	7088	1497	3010	275	1213	1001	701	599	1580	327	1436	3007	583	696	2693	4218	735	8698	1404	1079	6681	1785	2444	2261	1385	1202	3728	1284	2962	1773	721	1148	878	1561	517	5921	468	1417	318	4785	930	637	1519	893	259	340	5871	4584	1042	577	6154	877	682	12886	2484	1433	2606	723	520	752	857	1636	244	879	974	1088	573	540	950	1660	538	991	2963	1514	1169	2665	685	1099	4251	1306	788	521	4932	3053	2869	986	491	5618	724	1594	927	1648	4980	670	552	450	1298	1028	822	427	1092	756	1079	610	613	123	2401	4422	788	596	838	4933	3512	2209	2630	4269	1005	1019	918	791	695	802	814	148	2380	556	791	864	1811	6906	2290	777	1119	6383	711	1027	3171	749	640	830	970	1527	786	2753
2020-10-17	309	683	1067	575	1318	1540	1245	443	1794	3509	4471	1282	1449	1259	1138	1085	2066	1810	17770	1231	4425	2469	762	7692	683	2485	706	14100	779	730	3217	573	1723	3633	614	2566	1077	673	1550	2565	4671	3109	800	1793	795	1034	1174	627	1968	2294	1210	749	1157	4693	4473	965	506	657	1718	1192	574	682	1878	416	9100	4007	684	681	3107	1056	1477	969	559	2598	512	4357	1317	882	2878	3516	343	505	773	965	598	753	3349	1162	1264	642	674	400	1106	2698	1033	611	1082	1558	488	670	912	323	1161	3628	1459	879	334	854	758	1894	1036	2781	790	1789	828	2101	607	1756	2530	474	1751	321	574	2192	1214	1039	1122	2607	1054	868	2538	1320	1754	933	543	1554	1291	1035	1094	2612	1509	7443	5035	2846	2345	16710	8832	542	2245	823	822	15300	2670	955	256	468	15690	907	1552	411	349	1597	332	509	917	2639	1625	612	848	1252	7257	1523	3046	282	1213	1026	712	615	1596	333	1437	3072	594	696	2734	4296	764	9050	1419	1090	6765	1822	2501	2284	1396	1239	3742	1297	3018	1793	726	1162	880	1608	525	6033	477	1440	322	4815	952	654	1539	906	265	354	5973	4663	1056	592	6295	884	695	13220	2558	1466	2606	733	534	764	873	1656	254	882	995	1112	573	548	968	1693	554	1020	3015	1523	1184	2682	709	1114	4376	1306	808	526	5049	3087	2932	986	498	5732	736	1613	949	1664	5167	670	552	460	1319	1045	832	432	1094	756	1079	624	618	125	2447	4563	791	605	838	5012	3595	2246	2670	4388	1013	1024	926	805	712	818	820	151	2452	573	791	881	1840	6989	2328	777	1131	6454	716	1044	3276	767	644	838	987	1563	797	2785
2020-10-18	311	692	1090	581	1319	1550	1245	452	1823	3547	4574	1305	1458	1272	1145	1117	2085	1811	18120	1265	4480	2536	777	7867	693	2526	711	14320	781	733	3271	584	1757	3697	620	2598	1091	684	1588	2598	4771	3155	815	1836	818	1044	1180	627	1992	2358	1224	758	1172	4768	4565	973	512	669	1735	1229	581	694	1899	425	9280	4082	700	684	3146	1069	1507	975	566	2613	516	4380	1349	884	2944	3547	348	514	782	986	612	763	3415	1178	1277	647	681	409	1132	2751	1046	622	1088	1595	494	675	913	323	1195	3680	1520	885	337	861	770	1924	1053	2845	802	1809	841	2146	614	1796	2530	478	1801	326	580	2215	1226	1044	1145	2650	1072	880	2566	1331	1789	943	547	1580	1291	1045	1103	2654	1534	7545	5157	2898	2415	17140	8858	548	2266	828	837	15730	2700	966	261	475	16050	932	1567	422	356	1618	334	514	926	2696	1659	625	857	1266	7427	1549	3083	288	1217	1052	723	631	1611	339	1437	3135	600	703	2774	4375	794	9420	1434	1101	6849	1859	2557	2306	1408	1277	3794	1311	3074	1813	731	1177	903	1649	532	6168	486	1474	325	4885	973	664	1557	920	270	367	6039	4724	1071	605	6430	891	708	13560	2610	1497	2621	743	548	776	890	1677	264	884	1017	1135	579	555	985	1743	565	1044	3066	1532	1198	2698	717	1130	4498	1323	827	530	5166	3125	2978	987	505	5848	739	1623	971	1675	5297	670	553	470	1341	1055	841	437	1097	767	1083	636	624	127	2486	4644	794	614	839	5034	3677	2283	2696	4477	1031	1029	934	819	729	833	826	154	2526	589	792	892	1864	7111	2368	777	1149	6526	722	1060	3334	774	649	846	1005	1599	809	2820
2020-10-19	314	700	1113	587	1336	1559	1246	460	1867	3616	4678	1328	1467	1285	1163	1149	2103	1831	18480	1299	4534	2602	800	8046	703	2595	715	14600	782	736	3327	594	1791	3785	627	2637	1115	694	1642	2631	4871	3216	840	1878	842	1054	1193	636	2014	2421	1251	767	1188	4870	4657	980	519	682	1753	1264	590	706	1920	435	9490	4160	716	686	3185	1082	1539	985	572	2629	520	4435	1382	887	3011	3604	353	523	790	1006	627	784	3479	1191	1290	652	689	418	1158	2817	1074	632	1104	1633	500	681	916	325	1228	3730	1581	890	340	868	781	1954	1069	2907	815	1850	854	2192	620	1837	2550	484	1855	331	585	2262	1237	1048	1185	2694	1090	892	2606	1342	1824	954	550	1622	1295	1062	1112	2696	1567	7704	5309	2950	2490	17570	8903	553	2287	834	853	16170	2731	977	265	482	16410	955	1582	433	362	1648	336	518	935	2753	1693	644	866	1282	7599	1575	3121	295	1229	1086	735	648	1627	344	1441	3199	609	717	2814	4455	825	9790	1448	1112	6932	1898	2613	2328	1420	1316	3871	1325	3130	1834	735	1191	935	1704	540	6346	495	1525	329	4991	994	677	1576	932	275	380	6202	4813	1084	619	6603	900	720	13910	2671	1528	2655	753	562	788	907	1698	275	887	1040	1159	586	563	1004	1806	575	1069	3117	1542	1213	2715	732	1146	4620	1365	851	535	5283	3162	3032	993	511	5962	749	1641	993	1690	5487	676	555	479	1384	1077	850	442	1099	781	1101	650	629	129	2549	4754	797	623	845	5115	3761	2319	2754	4613	1056	1034	942	833	747	849	833	156	2634	606	796	915	1899	7302	2407	781	1183	6598	728	1077	3424	789	653	853	1023	1637	820	2856
2020-10-20	316	709	1136	593	1347	1568	1250	469	1896	3684	4782	1351	1475	1299	1187	1182	2122	1841	18840	1332	4588	2668	821	8225	712	2667	719	14880	784	743	3381	604	1826	3902	634	2676	1144	712	1697	2666	4971	3291	867	1921	866	1063	1201	638	2037	2486	1267	776	1204	4960	4748	988	525	694	1770	1298	599	718	1942	445	9710	4237	731	689	3223	1095	1572	993	578	2645	523	4508	1415	890	3078	3654	358	532	799	1026	641	797	3544	1207	1302	656	696	426	1184	2875	1094	643	1112	1671	506	686	922	331	1260	3780	1644	897	343	875	792	1984	1085	2971	827	1892	867	2237	626	1878	2588	489	1908	336	591	2294	1248	1053	1218	2737	1109	903	2656	1353	1859	964	553	1662	1308	1079	1121	2739	1606	7824	5479	3002	2574	18000	8948	558	2308	839	868	16610	2752	987	270	489	16770	979	1597	445	367	1676	338	522	945	2810	1724	664	874	1297	7773	1601	3158	302	1242	1125	746	665	1642	350	1450	3262	619	727	2854	4534	856	10180	1462	1123	7015	1936	2668	2349	1432	1355	3939	1338	3186	1853	740	1205	969	1761	547	6514	504	1578	333	5080	1014	690	1594	945	280	392	6364	4885	1098	634	6772	908	733	14250	2737	1558	2678	763	576	800	924	1720	285	890	1063	1182	593	571	1021	1867	585	1100	3167	1551	1228	2731	739	1163	4742	1401	873	539	5399	3198	3099	999	518	6077	761	1668	1016	1706	5649	682	560	490	1419	1104	860	447	1102	801	1120	662	636	131	2598	4873	800	632	852	5148	3846	2355	2806	4725	1081	1039	950	848	764	865	839	159	2713	622	799	935	1941	7487	2447	786	1210	6671	734	1093	3498	805	657	860	1041	1675	832	2893
2020-10-21	318	718	1159	598	1376	1577	1263	478	1948	3751	4888	1374	1484	1312	1210	1215	2140	1862	19210	1367	4642	2735	849	8408	722	2761	723	15150	789	748	3435	615	1860	4014	641	2731	1171	724	1750	2701	5072	3366	897	1965	891	1071	1218	649	2059	2552	1287	785	1220	5054	4841	995	531	707	1787	1332	610	729	1964	454	9950	4316	747	691	3262	1108	1606	1004	584	2661	527	4607	1449	892	3147	3713	362	541	808	1046	656	811	3608	1227	1315	661	704	435	1210	2925	1113	654	1147	1709	513	691	925	333	1293	3830	1708	903	346	882	803	2015	1100	3036	838	1941	880	2283	632	1919	2603	495	1964	342	596	2343	1258	1057	1247	2782	1127	915	2720	1363	1896	974	556	1698	1317	1093	1130	2781	1656	8027	5639	3055	2668	18440	9027	563	2330	845	885	17050	2799	998	274	496	17130	1004	1611	457	373	1705	340	526	954	2868	1755	682	883	1313	7948	1627	3196	309	1256	1165	757	682	1658	355	1458	3326	623	744	2894	4614	889	10570	1476	1135	7099	1974	2724	2371	1444	1395	4016	1352	3243	1873	744	1220	1008	1831	555	6677	513	1623	336	5182	1033	708	1613	958	285	404	6500	4968	1112	648	6960	916	745	14600	2812	1588	2722	774	590	812	942	1742	295	893	1086	1206	601	580	1040	1924	596	1135	3219	1561	1242	2747	753	1179	4865	1430	890	544	5517	3235	3151	1014	524	6194	778	1687	1039	1727	5860	694	570	500	1461	1126	869	452	1105	821	1134	675	642	133	2650	4982	802	641	856	5257	3933	2392	2863	4846	1100	1044	958	862	782	881	846	162	2795	639	805	958	1982	7670	2487	792	1239	6744	740	1110	3568	818	662	867	1060	1714	843	2930
2020-10-22	321	726	1184	604	1391	1586	1275	487	1982	3819	4995	1397	1493	1326	1232	1248	2159	1881	19590	1403	4697	2803	872	8595	732	2826	727	15440	797	756	3489	626	1895	4100	648	2754	1189	738	1797	2736	5174	3430	926	2008	917	1080	1234	654	2082	2621	1303	794	1236	5135	4934	1002	538	720	1804	1365	620	740	1986	464	10140	4396	762	694	3301	1121	1640	1009	591	2678	531	4673	1483	895	3217	3775	367	550	816	1066	672	823	3674	1246	1328	665	711	444	1236	3020	1135	663	1164	1747	519	696	928	337	1326	3880	1773	909	348	889	815	2046	1115	3101	850	1988	892	2329	638	1960	2619	498	2020	347	602	2380	1269	1061	1265	2827	1145	927	2775	1374	1932	984	559	1738	1337	1106	1139	2824	1694	8185	5787	3110	2758	18890	9077	568	2351	850	901	17500	2833	1009	279	503	17500	1028	1626	469	379	1732	342	531	963	2927	1785	697	892	1329	8126	1653	3234	316	1275	1200	769	700	1673	361	1469	3391	633	757	2934	4694	923	10970	1491	1147	7184	2013	2781	2393	1456	1435	4080	1366	3300	1893	749	1234	1044	1888	562	6841	523	1681	340	5264	1053	721	1631	970	290	416	6645	5044	1126	657	7113	925	758	14960	2868	1619	2753	784	604	824	960	1765	305	896	1109	1231	613	588	1058	1985	606	1172	3270	1570	1257	2764	764	1196	4989	1460	917	548	5636	3272	3210	1023	531	6311	781	1706	1062	1744	6021	697	576	510	1499	1147	878	457	1108	838	1144	688	648	135	2708	5097	805	650	862	5296	4022	2428	2920	4961	1121	1049	966	876	800	897	853	165	2873	656	811	978	2028	7833	2527	800	1266	6818	746	1126	3640	831	666	874	1079	1754	855	2967
2020-10-23	323	735	1209	610	1412	1595	1296	496	2002	3865	5105	1420	1502	1340	1253	1282	2178	1895	19980	1439	4753	2871	887	8787	742	2867	732	15640	805	765	3544	637	1930	4183	654	2797	1205	751	1836	2772	5277	3484	942	2053	944	1088	1241	665	2105	2691	1311	803	1252	5198	5028	1009	544	733	1822	1399	624	751	2009	474	10280	4478	778	696	3340	1135	1676	1012	597	2694	535	4790	1517	897	3288	3849	372	560	825	1087	688	832	3740	1260	1340	669	719	453	1263	3087	1149	672	1189	1786	525	701	930	340	1360	3930	1840	915	351	896	826	2078	1131	3167	862	2029	905	2376	645	2002	2659	503	2079	352	608	2417	1280	1065	1288	2873	1164	940	2830	1385	1970	994	563	1770	1357	1116	1148	2867	1719	8314	5910	3165	2828	19340	9172	573	2373	855	918	17960	2868	1019	283	510	17870	1053	1641	482	385	1748	344	535	972	2986	1815	711	900	1345	8304	1680	3273	323	1289	1242	780	718	1689	366	1476	3456	643	766	2975	4775	958	11380	1505	1159	7270	2053	2839	2415	1468	1475	4138	1380	3359	1913	753	1248	1078	1928	570	6963	532	1732	343	5365	1074	729	1650	983	295	429	6773	5090	1140	658	7263	933	770	15320	2896	1649	2804	794	618	836	978	1787	316	898	1132	1256	624	596	1077	2027	617	1195	3322	1580	1272	2780	768	1213	5114	1482	946	553	5756	3310	3263	1035	537	6430	792	1732	1087	1751	6107	703	582	520	1531	1160	888	462	1110	844	1162	700	655	137	2755	5177	808	659	874	5349	4113	2465	2957	5049	1147	1055	974	891	819	914	860	168	2934	673	818	988	2055	8011	2568	807	1286	6893	753	1143	3659	838	671	881	1099	1795	866	3005

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-17 to 2020-10-23

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-16	306	673	1045	569	1318	1530	1245	435	1751	3442	4368	1258	1441	1245	1137	1053	2046	1810	17430	1194	4372	2401	748	7516	673	2375	703	13904	779	730	3160	563	1689	3573	607	2532	1069	662	1505	2534	4571	3075	780	1750	772	1023	1174	627	1945	2233	1194	740	1141	4605	4379	957	499	644	1700	1151	558	668	1857	407	8943	3932	667	679	3068	1043	1448	966	553	2584	508	4357	1285	879	2813	3495	338	496	765	945	584	743	3283	1149	1251	637	666	392	1080	2647	1004	588	1082	1520	482	665	911	322	1125	3577	1399	873	331	847	746	1864	1018	2718	777	1716	815	2055	601	1717	2530	474	1701	316	568	2168	1202	1034	1099	2564	1035	856	2495	1309	1720	922	540	1542	1291	1017	1084	2569	1476	7309	4887	2795	2256	16278	8832	537	2224	816	808	14878	2661	944	251	461	15333	884	1536	399	343	1575	331	505	907	2582	1587	584	839	1239	7088	1497	3010	275	1213	1001	701	599	1580	327	1436	3007	583	696	2693	4218	735	8698	1404	1079	6681	1785	2444	2261	1385	1202	3728	1284	2962	1773	721	1148	878	1561	517	5921	468	1417	318	4785	930	637	1519	893	259	340	5871	4584	1042	577	6154	877	682	12886	2484	1433	2606	723	520	752	857	1636	244	879	974	1088	573	540	950	1660	538	991	2963	1514	1169	2665	685	1099	4251	1306	788	521	4932	3053	2869	986	491	5618	724	1594	927	1648	4980	670	552	450	1298	1028	822	427	1092	756	1079	610	613	123	2401	4422	788	596	838	4933	3512	2209	2630	4269	1005	1019	918	791	695	802	814	148	2380	556	791	864	1811	6906	2290	777	1119	6383	711	1027	3171	749	640	830	970	1527	786	2753
2020-10-17	309	681	1071	575	1342	1538	1263	444	1775	3478	4502	1281	1464	1256	1163	1083	2066	1829	17740	1220	4480	2464	762	7677	684	2457	714	14150	788	739	3206	572	1717	3652	615	2571	1084	675	1555	2587	4671	3144	803	1781	802	1035	1191	636	1967	2295	1208	749	1157	4675	4466	972	506	656	1736	1173	565	676	1872	414	9140	4026	677	687	3104	1061	1479	971	563	2633	518	4463	1320	886	2864	3550	344	507	771	966	603	751	3370	1167	1266	643	674	403	1107	2714	1021	599	1108	1539	489	670	913	327	1144	3621	1459	882	334	854	760	1896	1035	2772	792	1761	829	2095	608	1747	2553	479	1735	321	575	2199	1215	1049	1121	2612	1053	866	2546	1322	1755	931	543	1577	1313	1029	1090	2608	1508	7435	5018	2837	2313	16540	8918	542	2242	833	828	15220	2694	953	255	465	15560	906	1552	406	350	1598	334	514	915	2639	1609	596	848	1259	7198	1524	3060	281	1235	1049	713	614	1614	332	1449	3055	594	706	2734	4275	757	8890	1419	1097	6812	1814	2496	2281	1410	1234	3799	1300	3017	1821	732	1159	910	1584	523	6051	477	1462	322	4894	945	648	1557	905	264	348	5996	4648	1055	584	6302	894	694	13200	2520	1464	2652	732	534	761	877	1666	250	886	995	1106	583	550	964	1696	543	1016	3008	1532	1186	2696	696	1112	4359	1329	812	526	5034	3137	2927	998	498	5723	728	1615	946	1662	5088	682	558	456	1327	1045	831	431	1098	767	1099	618	624	124	2435	4513	796	605	847	5031	3584	2246	2666	4357	1022	1033	931	801	707	817	820	150	2432	567	801	872	1849	7080	2323	786	1140	6477	717	1044	3229	759	645	841	990	1565	798	2837
2020-10-18	311	690	1095	581	1366	1545	1279	453	1797	3515	4647	1305	1489	1270	1187	1114	2086	1850	18070	1243	4577	2537	775	7833	693	2526	724	14420	796	747	3247	583	1750	3767	622	2611	1099	690	1617	2659	4783	3224	825	1825	827	1046	1207	643	1990	2368	1220	760	1172	4762	4562	994	514	672	1771	1197	571	684	1892	422	9410	4125	688	694	3145	1079	1510	978	573	2685	530	4562	1359	894	2919	3612	351	518	780	989	623	761	3443	1189	1280	646	684	415	1138	2769	1039	606	1142	1592	497	676	915	333	1170	3689	1535	894	337	861	770	1926	1050	2837	810	1791	844	2141	615	1785	2574	487	1781	327	580	2228	1224	1066	1152	2657	1074	877	2593	1337	1797	939	547	1612	1334	1040	1098	2650	1539	7596	5175	2879	2380	16930	9008	549	2262	849	851	15690	2725	964	259	470	15860	930	1564	415	357	1623	339	522	925	2690	1635	606	862	1284	7368	1553	3109	290	1264	1108	725	628	1654	337	1462	3112	603	718	2779	4344	777	9390	1433	1118	6948	1839	2552	2300	1438	1274	3876	1318	3073	1874	743	1172	941	1612	530	6182	485	1508	325	5017	960	658	1611	918	272	357	6136	4712	1068	592	6488	915	707	13610	2555	1489	2703	743	548	776	896	1707	257	893	1019	1125	591	564	979	1744	551	1039	3059	1553	1199	2721	704	1128	4461	1354	830	531	5158	3255	2972	1014	504	5850	735	1636	966	1676	5200	693	564	469	1352	1066	843	437	1103	783	1120	627	636	126	2471	4605	806	612	857	5130	3659	2282	2701	4454	1048	1048	946	812	717	834	827	154	2508	582	809	879	1879	7273	2366	794	1166	6597	725	1059	3281	764	649	852	1012	1606	811	2935
2020-10-19	314	699	1122	587	1406	1552	1296	463	1835	3587	4794	1336	1516	1282	1216	1146	2107	1875	18410	1268	4712	2610	795	7999	703	2615	737	14710	804	757	3290	593	1786	3898	628	2651	1124	706	1684	2736	4904	3313	853	1875	854	1056	1224	657	2013	2448	1241	771	1186	4874	4667	1015	522	687	1816	1220	580	690	1915	430	9720	4230	701	702	3189	1098	1551	986	584	2740	543	4678	1400	901	2983	3698	358	530	790	1012	646	779	3522	1211	1295	652	696	427	1169	2827	1061	615	1184	1645	506	682	918	341	1201	3763	1617	907	341	869	780	1958	1066	2902	828	1833	858	2190	622	1827	2617	496	1833	332	585	2280	1235	1085	1189	2714	1094	888	2642	1351	1839	948	552	1654	1361	1053	1106	2693	1571	7781	5355	2936	2456	17460	9113	555	2294	865	872	16220	2754	976	265	478	16220	954	1580	425	364	1650	344	529	936	2755	1662	618	876	1322	7551	1583	3174	299	1294	1174	737	643	1695	342	1477	3185	612	737	2824	4423	802	9950	1449	1138	7103	1868	2624	2324	1469	1313	3959	1338	3129	1926	757	1189	976	1650	538	6369	493	1567	329	5170	975	670	1669	931	278	367	6334	4807	1085	600	6698	939	720	14060	2594	1515	2768	754	561	793	918	1748	263	900	1048	1146	600	578	995	1807	558	1063	3111	1574	1215	2754	713	1141	4580	1388	854	536	5296	3369	3021	1034	514	5978	743	1661	988	1691	5341	708	571	479	1388	1089	855	444	1109	799	1149	637	651	129	2535	4726	817	624	869	5294	3738	2326	2762	4581	1079	1063	961	827	730	850	841	158	2621	599	819	893	1915	7523	2410	805	1198	6744	737	1075	3351	777	654	865	1034	1652	824	3040
2020-10-20	316	709	1150	593	1438	1559	1317	473	1860	3656	4944	1363	1542	1299	1245	1180	2127	1899	18760	1293	4833	2685	815	8169	713	2706	747	15000	813	768	3335	603	1823	4039	635	2693	1149	724	1753	2817	5022	3411	883	1930	881	1066	1240	665	2036	2521	1257	782	1200	4980	4771	1038	529	703	1860	1244	588	698	1939	439	10040	4337	713	709	3232	1118	1589	994	595	2795	557	4802	1443	908	3046	3778	366	542	800	1035	669	791	3599	1232	1310	655	710	440	1201	2884	1082	623	1223	1701	516	690	923	349	1228	3836	1702	919	344	876	790	1990	1083	2968	845	1875	873	2238	630	1877	2671	505	1885	338	591	2319	1246	1103	1225	2770	1116	902	2694	1365	1882	956	556	1697	1390	1066	1115	2737	1606	7973	5547	2993	2548	17970	9213	561	2321	882	895	16760	2782	986	270	485	16620	979	1596	435	371	1676	349	537	946	2831	1689	631	890	1355	7732	1612	3235	308	1326	1244	751	661	1736	348	1494	3263	622	748	2869	4506	830	10580	1464	1159	7257	1897	2686	2346	1499	1354	4042	1358	3185	1977	770	1204	1012	1688	545	6552	501	1631	333	5311	993	682	1731	945	287	376	6529	4893	1099	607	6911	959	733	14520	2641	1540	2830	766	579	810	939	1790	272	907	1079	1168	608	593	1010	1866	567	1094	3163	1597	1229	2784	721	1153	4702	1422	878	541	5439	3469	3074	1053	524	6109	758	1692	1008	1710	5476	722	578	490	1421	1114	868	451	1113	817	1182	648	671	132	2586	4850	828	631	880	5442	3816	2366	2818	4698	1107	1078	976	843	742	867	851	162	2702	619	832	908	1957	7771	2455	816	1229	6887	747	1093	3415	790	658	876	1055	1699	838	3147
2020-10-21	320	718	1179	600	1479	1566	1342	482	1901	3730	5099	1391	1569	1312	1275	1222	2147	1923	19120	1318	4938	2761	837	8345	723	2813	763	15290	825	778	3382	613	1866	4193	642	2737	1175	740	1825	2919	5146	3509	912	1989	911	1076	1259	675	2059	2612	1271	794	1213	5096	4878	1061	537	719	1909	1267	596	705	1960	447	10410	4446	728	717	3276	1138	1642	1004	606	2853	573	4963	1487	915	3107	3872	374	555	811	1058	687	807	3678	1257	1324	660	721	453	1234	2942	1102	633	1270	1769	526	697	926	358	1254	3914	1793	932	347	884	799	2023	1099	3035	864	1921	887	2288	637	1927	2711	514	1939	344	596	2366	1259	1123	1262	2830	1137	917	2747	1379	1926	964	560	1739	1421	1079	1125	2787	1644	8199	5735	3060	2649	18610	9324	568	2354	901	920	17380	2813	1000	275	494	17140	1004	1617	445	379	1703	354	546	957	2908	1717	646	905	1397	7942	1643	3296	318	1363	1314	765	678	1779	355	1510	3336	631	762	2915	4590	859	11540	1480	1180	7420	1930	2748	2368	1533	1397	4129	1380	3241	2032	785	1221	1052	1751	553	6732	509	1690	338	5474	1009	697	1808	960	298	386	6735	4973	1116	614	7133	981	746	15000	2691	1565	2902	778	597	830	963	1833	281	914	1111	1192	615	608	1025	1928	576	1129	3216	1621	1249	2823	732	1167	4841	1450	900	546	5578	3601	3123	1082	531	6242	770	1720	1031	1731	5626	740	588	505	1454	1137	880	457	1119	836	1205	660	693	135	2644	4967	839	639	893	5623	3897	2407	2877	4820	1136	1093	992	863	754	884	868	165	2793	640	842	924	1997	8025	2500	830	1266	7038	760	1111	3473	805	663	888	1074	1751	851	3260
2020-10-22	322	728	1209	606	1519	1573	1368	493	1933	3816	5259	1423	1597	1326	1306	1266	2167	1949	19490	1343	5065	2840	857	8511	733	2909	775	15590	837	790	3435	624	1912	4353	649	2778	1200	759	1899	3007	5269	3605	945	2046	940	1086	1276	684	2082	2697	1288	805	1226	5197	5002	1084	545	735	1951	1291	605	713	1984	456	10750	4560	741	727	3321	1157	1690	1010	617	2910	589	5112	1531	922	3171	3974	381	566	824	1082	709	820	3758	1283	1340	665	734	466	1267	3007	1123	644	1322	1843	533	703	929	366	1282	3997	1882	945	351	891	809	2057	1115	3103	885	1967	902	2344	645	1974	2757	523	1993	349	602	2410	1271	1142	1297	2897	1158	931	2801	1394	1972	973	565	1780	1454	1092	1135	2831	1681	8459	5931	3128	2757	19310	9428	574	2395	918	945	17970	2843	1015	281	504	17570	1030	1636	456	386	1731	359	554	967	2987	1748	660	920	1440	8162	1673	3361	327	1404	1385	778	697	1823	360	1528	3413	641	785	2962	4671	891	12310	1497	1202	7584	1961	2819	2393	1565	1441	4206	1402	3298	2099	799	1239	1090	1817	561	6908	518	1749	342	5627	1027	710	1899	974	308	396	6963	5052	1134	621	7356	1003	760	15490	2741	1591	2970	789	613	849	987	1877	289	921	1145	1212	626	623	1039	1992	586	1163	3270	1644	1265	2858	742	1188	4983	1484	928	551	5723	3752	3174	1110	539	6377	783	1749	1054	1749	5768	753	597	520	1486	1161	893	463	1123	855	1232	670	713	138	2701	5116	851	651	903	5784	3980	2453	2942	4951	1164	1108	1008	880	767	902	883	169	2903	664	850	942	2041	8297	2546	845	1296	7202	772	1129	3535	818	667	901	1100	1804	864	3389
2020-10-23	325	737	1239	612	1554	1580	1394	503	1969	3891	5423	1448	1625	1342	1337	1318	2188	1973	19840	1369	5194	2921	869	8677	743	3003	786	15880	847	801	3479	634	1952	4510	657	2822	1222	777	1975	3089	5394	3698	972	2105	968	1096	1291	694	2105	2793	1300	815	1239	5312	5111	1109	552	752	1994	1314	613	721	2007	464	11100	4678	754	734	3368	1177	1732	1017	628	2966	606	5246	1572	929	3238	4073	390	578	836	1106	733	832	3825	1307	1355	668	748	479	1302	3069	1144	658	1372	1905	542	709	932	374	1315	4087	1979	958	354	899	819	2091	1134	3173	905	2015	917	2395	653	2023	2805	531	2048	355	607	2456	1282	1162	1331	2957	1180	945	2856	1409	2018	982	569	1821	1486	1104	1145	2876	1713	8675	6124	3196	2861	19920	9542	581	2427	937	971	18540	2872	1029	287	514	17990	1056	1655	467	394	1757	364	562	979	3057	1777	673	935	1482	8359	1705	3430	337	1435	1468	793	715	1868	366	1545	3497	652	800	3010	4754	924	13350	1513	1224	7762	1991	2893	2415	1598	1489	4288	1424	3356	2162	811	1258	1127	1854	568	7073	527	1815	346	5787	1044	722	1974	988	315	406	7176	5123	1149	627	7583	1025	774	15970	2781	1617	3041	801	629	871	1009	1921	296	928	1180	1233	635	642	1056	2050	595	1192	3324	1665	1278	2893	750	1209	5110	1513	956	556	5889	3923	3224	1139	548	6516	802	1783	1078	1765	5892	767	605	534	1518	1184	906	470	1129	871	1259	680	729	140	2754	5243	863	662	917	5942	4066	2500	3003	5077	1196	1123	1026	900	780	920	896	173	3003	690	862	956	2077	8527	2592	857	1324	7357	783	1148	3592	830	672	911	1124	1861	878	3512

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-16 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-10-16