COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-10-11

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	04-15	--	--	04-29	09-30	04-16	--	--	--	--	09-30	09-30	--	03-27	--	--	09-30	03-30	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-02	--	09-28	09-30	05-03	04-20	03-26	--	09-30	--	04-26	09-28	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-30	09-30	--	09-30	04-21	--	09-30	--	09-28	09-30	--	09-30	09-30	09-30	09-30	09-29	--	04-17	--	--	--	--	--	09-28	04-20	09-30	--	--	03-30	--	--	--	--	--	09-30	--	--	09-30	--	04-17	--	09-29	--	--	--	09-30	04-22	--	--	--	09-30	09-30	--	--	--	09-30	04-28	05-11	--	--	09-29	--	04-19	04-15	09-28	05-11	--	--	09-29	09-29	--	--	09-27	09-30	03-25	--	--	09-30	--	09-28	04-18	--	07-01	--	--	09-28	--	09-30	09-30	05-03	09-30	04-17	04-21	--	--	05-03	04-10	--	09-30	--	09-29	09-30	--	09-30	--	--	--	09-30	--	09-30	--	04-27	09-28	09-30	09-28	--	09-29	--	--	09-30	03-27	04-23	04-22	09-28	09-30	--	09-30	09-27	09-29	--	--	--	--	--	09-30	09-30	--	05-04	09-28	09-29	04-08	09-30	08-02	09-27	--	--	--	--	09-30	09-30	--	04-29	09-29	--	--	04-07	09-30	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	09-30	--	09-28	--	--	--	09-30	04-05	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	09-28	09-30	09-20	--	09-30	--	--	--	04-28	09-30	--	04-22	--	05-09	--	09-30	--	--	09-30	03-27	09-30	--	--	--	--	--	03-30	--	--	--	09-27	03-30	--	--	--	--	09-28	09-29	--	--	--	--	--	09-29	09-29	04-08	09-30	--	09-30	09-29	04-06	--	--	--	04-27	--	--	--	09-30	09-30	09-30	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-30	--	--	--	09-30	04-14	--	--	09-30	--	--	--	09-28	--	09-29	--	04-16	--	--	--	--	--
Peak daily increment	5			18	27	22					111	29		24			24	29							8		12	269	11	9	52		42		13	34							20	44		16	25		27		19	15		100	102	24	14	19		23						15	11	47			18						13			11		15		17				16	15				56	15				10	11	13			85		14	7	9	14			64	74			24	55	10			9		7	9		43			52		15	46	29	39	20	16			18	23		29		170	51		561				14		549		24	6	10	500		17			24	10	10	13	67	31		14	56	262						15	17		15	18	90	10	21	68	94					135	37		33	29			22	61				30				10		7				65	14						7						23	58	16		20				25	28		18		19		8			27	15	40						7				23	9					17	111						19	7	21	19		11	22	6				15				42	55	109							16				11	14			43				14		48		10
Days since peak	179			165	11	178					11	11		198			11	195							192		13	11	161	174	199		11		168	13							11	11		11	173		11		13	11		11	11	11	11	12		177						13	174	11			195						11			11		177		12				11	172				11	11				11	166	153			12		175	179	13	153			12	12			14	11	200			11		13	176		102			13		11	11	161	11	177	173			161	184		11		12	11		11				11		11		167	13	11	13		12			11	198	171	172	13	11		11	14	12						11	11		160	13	12	186	11	70	14					11	11		165	12			187	11				12				11		13				11	189						172						13	11	21		11				166	11		172		155		11			11	198	11						195				14	195					13	12						12	12	186	11		11	12	188				167				11	11	11							11				11	180			11				13		12		178
Last total	291	631	887	527	1098	1489	1144	394	1563	3105	3594	1092	1294	1179	963	911	1924	1665	15548	1069	3756	2028	650	6596	605	2013	628	12421	706	666	2904	504	1507	2844	562	2296	946	592	1238	2201	3974	2656	638	1466	620	960	1049	554	1818	1854	1093	686	1048	4139	3888	864	459	576	1463	1020	522	633	370	7690	3419	613	633	2845	957	1225	922	504	2277	437	3640	1105	836	2488	3073	306	442	729	822	478	671	2888	1045	1174	597	602	325	936	2302	902	533	889	1322	436	626	890	290	969	3250	1066	813	315	810	667	1676	917	2223	2412	693	1503	735	1792	552	1496	2288	428	1460	289	525	1912	1134	943	944	2252	937	790	2218	1232	1509	869	512	1320	1125	942	1045	2321	1292	6439	4107	2489	1854	14028	8206	503	2037	714	689	12645	2439	886	223	427	13535	711	1431	352	303	1429	306	458	855	2261	1459	526	755	1078	6344	1353	2660	235	1071	719	640	521	1384	296	1352	2700	529	623	2454	3805	612	7011	1308	969	5881	1626	2139	2132	1212	1019	3309	1164	2625	1495	642	1066	688	1330	485	5112	424	1129	290	4073	850	572	1209	814	232	292	4982	4108	960	524	5266	762	623	11116	2277	1255	2289	669	447	683	744	1444	209	834	850	991	515	480	869	1383	502	841	2713	1402	1060	2451	630	1027	3672	1125	656	486	4326	2569	2531	880	440	4922	670	1450	808	1552	4356	577	509	404	1102	913	762	391	1042	673	924	561	530	107	2071	3862	734	540	767	4184	3114	1991	2334	3735	851	932	816	713	632	708	754	126	1993	498	736	783	1598	5763	2080	719	962	5748	643	925	2801	693	608	754	873	1279	718	2277
Last daily increment	1	6	10	4	19	3	8	4	8	20	76	11	18	9	12	17	4	4	217	11	68	52	8	131	4	20	8	182	2	4	13	6	14	56	5	17	18	10	32	62	84	56	7	17	18	6	12	5	14	64	6	5	11	69	58	15	7	5	22	12	4	3	10	241	68	7	4	14	15	16	3	9	35	4	83	25	1	40	26	8	11	5	5	9	7	43	22	11	0	6	6	15	21	6	4	28	10	4	3	0	1	20	43	42	4	1	5	1	14	6	21	45	15	10	9	15	8	23	10	7	21	1	1	11	6	11	26	13	15	5	13	6	39	4	1	14	7	7	5	20	10	145	111	14	51	258	82	3	7	10	22	309	28	10	2	2	195	21	1	1	1	6	1	8	7	28	11	4	9	18	98	19	13	5	25	24	8	11	24	2	6	42	6	11	21	41	5	214	11	14	79	12	42	17	12	21	71	4	8	35	7	5	18	24	11	113	4	26	0	94	13	2	40	6	4	3	97	59	9	8	140	23	3	204	30	6	39	5	4	7	17	27	3	1	14	12	5	11	10	39	5	18	37	14	4	13	2	11	66	17	12	3	100	81	34	10	3	73	3	4	13	5	84	3	5	11	16	10	3	4	0	9	11	4	4	0	11	67	7	2	11	89	45	18	7	73	24	5	8	6	7	10	4	0	69	7	7	3	10	150	22	4	9	110	1	5	23	3	5	8	11	26	8	57
Last week	16	52	115	28	154	41	116	52	165	342	596	136	121	85	95	196	112	128	1773	129	538	304	81	797	37	424	52	1496	51	44	239	41	201	598	37	179	110	80	283	435	580	425	101	210	84	64	87	47	123	396	92	68	107	535	555	122	58	86	235	92	48	59	72	1505	522	67	43	216	119	179	38	69	280	61	554	192	40	264	366	46	60	66	118	86	61	369	118	83	13	53	50	141	238	83	53	171	333	39	24	13	35	120	415	328	75	26	44	46	175	100	292	411	108	181	74	253	38	207	224	40	205	33	32	189	62	91	159	246	104	65	236	83	224	50	20	175	113	60	58	228	145	925	899	235	399	2558	552	35	183	77	95	2772	176	69	26	45	2143	98	84	34	33	122	31	42	58	347	146	64	73	183	1129	151	269	34	142	220	66	91	208	32	97	436	47	103	215	460	106	2437	92	105	728	174	357	138	141	183	431	97	291	246	68	78	144	220	46	778	47	200	21	613	103	50	320	55	46	43	817	399	88	27	1110	114	66	2075	248	112	296	71	76	96	99	213	36	37	137	106	45	78	66	253	44	140	303	126	61	200	43	103	669	148	84	26	701	543	244	92	43	657	66	136	89	77	576	62	39	71	120	114	82	26	28	82	96	56	92	14	231	647	57	55	72	687	382	208	253	583	137	78	96	86	76	64	56	19	423	116	60	65	182	1103	220	83	138	838	56	88	269	66	26	80	115	184	66	470
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	07-13	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-05	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-16	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-29	--	--	03-25	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																					20							56								38																		40										73				49																				18																																																										75	75												24			24																			19																																																																	43																	27
Low between peaks																												27								1																		2														1																				0																																																										6													0			1																			0																																																																	1																	2

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-12 to 2020-10-18

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-11	291	631	887	527	1098	1489	1144	394	1563	3105	3594	1092	1294	1179	963	911	1924	1665	15548	1069	3756	2028	650	6596	605	2013	628	12421	706	666	2904	504	1507	2844	562	2296	946	592	1238	2201	3974	2656	638	1466	620	960	1049	554	1818	1854	1093	686	1048	4139	3888	864	459	576	1463	1020	522	633	370	7690	3419	613	633	2845	957	1225	922	504	2277	437	3640	1105	836	2488	3073	306	442	729	822	478	671	2888	1045	1174	597	602	325	936	2302	902	533	889	1322	436	626	890	290	969	3250	1066	813	315	810	667	1676	917	2223	2412	693	1503	735	1792	552	1496	2288	428	1460	289	525	1912	1134	943	944	2252	937	790	2218	1232	1509	869	512	1320	1125	942	1045	2321	1292	6439	4107	2489	1854	14028	8206	503	2037	714	689	12645	2439	886	223	427	13535	711	1431	352	303	1429	306	458	855	2261	1459	526	755	1078	6344	1353	2660	235	1071	719	640	521	1384	296	1352	2700	529	623	2454	3805	612	7011	1308	969	5881	1626	2139	2132	1212	1019	3309	1164	2625	1495	642	1066	688	1330	485	5112	424	1129	290	4073	850	572	1209	814	232	292	4982	4108	960	524	5266	762	623	11116	2277	1255	2289	669	447	683	744	1444	209	834	850	991	515	480	869	1383	502	841	2713	1402	1060	2451	630	1027	3672	1125	656	486	4326	2569	2531	880	440	4922	670	1450	808	1552	4356	577	509	404	1102	913	762	391	1042	673	924	561	530	107	2071	3862	734	540	767	4184	3114	1991	2334	3735	851	932	816	713	632	708	754	126	1993	498	736	783	1598	5763	2080	719	962	5748	643	925	2801	693	608	754	873	1279	718	2277
2020-10-12	293	640	904	532	1119	1494	1149	396	1596	3181	3661	1113	1316	1195	965	932	1924	1671	15890	1085	3820	2081	650	6769	611	2047	638	12640	709	674	2942	507	1540	2935	568	2321	978	592	1283	2293	4087	2711	646	1504	641	963	1053	554	1839	1921	1097	694	1057	4215	3901	881	466	588	1499	1036	543	648	379	7960	3492	625	635	2883	976	1320	928	518	2321	447	3700	1137	838	2533	3073	313	456	741	828	489	688	2945	1065	1185	600	611	329	957	2351	914	541	922	1478	439	628	894	292	1000	3344	1111	816	316	816	676	1676	932	2294	2458	709	1503	747	1816	557	1527	2353	430	1493	291	530	1962	1142	954	997	2290	945	797	2257	1242	1543	873	515	1320	1125	952	1053	2335	1314	6618	4289	2518	1910	14620	8280	504	2064	727	709	13150	2462	897	228	435	14200	734	1441	355	308	1447	308	464	864	2313	1477	529	764	1088	6618	1433	2681	244	1109	734	645	532	1419	301	1364	2767	535	641	2485	3845	629	7620	1321	989	5991	1651	2201	2154	1232	1038	3375	1182	2625	1537	642	1072	712	1386	497	5250	430	1189	291	4205	876	584	1259	823	250	299	5139	4166	995	528	5521	791	626	11660	2316	1276	2330	679	458	694	758	1471	211	836	871	1009	521	493	881	1443	510	852	2799	1418	1070	2460	647	1043	3769	1159	676	489	4456	2672	2544	895	445	4991	670	1459	831	1567	4438	595	515	434	1130	929	770	392	1043	677	942	570	535	108	2083	3904	744	544	788	4190	3175	2023	2383	3856	892	936	831	722	644	716	757	133	2107	509	744	794	1611	5968	2106	727	985	5867	653	936	2814	702	612	754	879	1322	728	2350
2020-10-13	296	648	922	537	1141	1499	1154	398	1627	3237	3728	1136	1337	1210	970	953	1936	1678	16240	1101	3884	2135	653	6938	617	2084	648	12890	711	682	2980	511	1573	3029	574	2346	1004	602	1328	2384	4202	2764	655	1534	661	966	1058	561	1860	1984	1101	701	1068	4301	3972	899	472	601	1536	1051	557	662	389	8254	3567	636	638	2921	995	1358	934	532	2363	457	3773	1170	841	2576	3084	321	470	752	834	500	699	3003	1086	1197	604	616	337	978	2390	927	550	953	1546	442	630	898	295	1031	3414	1156	819	317	822	686	1684	947	2347	2505	725	1513	759	1842	562	1559	2392	431	1527	292	534	1997	1149	965	1053	2328	963	804	2297	1253	1577	877	517	1337	1134	962	1061	2348	1336	6809	4472	2548	1990	15070	8352	505	2092	739	729	13630	2485	908	232	443	14660	756	1451	358	313	1466	310	469	874	2366	1496	532	774	1096	6836	1484	2702	254	1146	749	651	542	1454	305	1378	2836	541	658	2516	3886	646	8050	1333	1008	6102	1676	2264	2176	1253	1057	3441	1198	2648	1590	650	1079	736	1424	509	5390	437	1240	292	4328	899	593	1310	833	262	307	5305	4224	1019	532	5782	817	629	12050	2354	1296	2371	690	470	706	776	1498	214	838	892	1027	528	506	893	1500	518	879	2854	1434	1079	2470	663	1059	3886	1190	692	493	4580	2756	2581	910	451	5061	675	1469	850	1580	4520	611	520	457	1150	946	779	394	1045	682	960	578	539	109	2096	3945	754	548	804	4264	3236	2056	2424	3968	930	941	846	732	655	725	761	139	2226	520	752	805	1624	6198	2133	741	1013	6005	663	948	2828	712	616	762	885	1361	738	2428
2020-10-14	298	656	940	542	1162	1504	1159	401	1665	3298	3796	1157	1359	1225	976	974	1949	1685	16590	1117	3948	2189	662	7110	623	2118	658	13130	714	690	3019	515	1605	3124	580	2371	1022	617	1373	2477	4319	2821	664	1574	683	970	1062	563	1881	2048	1106	709	1077	4401	4050	916	479	613	1573	1066	570	676	398	8601	3642	648	640	2959	1013	1409	939	546	2408	467	3867	1202	843	2621	3121	328	484	764	840	511	715	3060	1106	1208	607	623	348	997	2434	939	558	991	1620	445	631	900	297	1062	3495	1203	823	319	827	695	1700	963	2408	2551	742	1528	771	1866	567	1591	2444	433	1559	294	539	2043	1157	976	1099	2366	972	810	2335	1263	1610	881	519	1361	1143	972	1069	2362	1358	7025	4638	2578	2067	15530	8421	507	2120	751	748	14140	2506	919	237	451	15140	777	1461	360	318	1484	312	475	883	2419	1515	535	784	1105	7041	1527	2723	263	1184	764	656	552	1489	309	1391	2904	547	676	2547	3926	664	8510	1345	1027	6212	1701	2326	2197	1273	1076	3506	1213	2668	1643	657	1085	759	1476	521	5528	444	1291	293	4454	920	601	1362	841	269	314	5447	4281	1042	535	6057	844	633	12500	2392	1316	2411	700	482	718	796	1526	216	840	913	1045	534	520	906	1556	526	911	2909	1461	1089	2480	680	1075	3985	1223	710	496	4710	2864	2616	925	456	5129	679	1478	874	1594	4601	627	525	479	1169	962	788	396	1047	687	977	587	544	110	2109	3988	764	552	824	4343	3299	2089	2467	4072	965	946	861	741	667	733	765	145	2334	532	760	816	1637	6410	2159	753	1041	6132	673	959	2844	720	619	767	891	1402	747	2515
2020-10-15	300	664	957	547	1184	1509	1164	403	1701	3372	3864	1180	1381	1239	987	995	1953	1692	16960	1133	4012	2244	670	7282	629	2154	668	13400	717	697	3057	518	1638	3222	586	2396	1041	627	1419	2572	4437	2876	672	1604	704	974	1067	565	1901	2111	1110	717	1088	4486	4124	934	485	626	1611	1080	582	689	408	8950	3718	659	643	2997	1032	1455	945	560	2451	476	3955	1236	845	2665	3144	336	497	775	846	521	725	3117	1127	1219	610	635	356	1017	2480	951	566	1034	1698	449	633	903	299	1093	3549	1251	826	320	833	704	1710	978	2456	2598	758	1542	783	1891	572	1623	2495	435	1592	296	543	2092	1164	986	1135	2405	989	818	2375	1273	1643	885	522	1382	1152	983	1077	2375	1380	7245	4826	2609	2157	16020	8490	509	2148	763	769	14660	2528	930	241	459	15580	799	1471	363	323	1502	314	481	892	2473	1534	538	793	1113	7243	1572	2745	273	1221	778	662	562	1525	314	1408	2974	552	694	2578	3967	682	9020	1357	1047	6323	1727	2388	2218	1293	1095	3571	1229	2707	1700	664	1092	783	1518	533	5661	450	1339	293	4591	944	610	1414	850	282	322	5598	4338	1070	539	6339	870	636	12860	2430	1335	2452	711	494	730	814	1555	218	842	935	1064	540	532	918	1610	534	941	2966	1481	1098	2490	695	1091	4147	1256	735	499	4840	2973	2645	939	461	5199	685	1488	901	1607	4682	644	530	503	1191	978	797	398	1048	692	995	596	549	111	2122	4029	775	557	842	4423	3363	2123	2512	4176	999	950	877	751	678	742	768	152	2453	543	768	828	1650	6627	2186	770	1062	6275	684	970	2859	729	623	768	897	1442	757	2589
2020-10-16	302	672	975	552	1206	1513	1170	405	1743	3421	3933	1202	1403	1254	989	1018	1967	1699	17340	1150	4078	2300	675	7458	635	2191	677	13620	720	705	3096	524	1671	3320	592	2422	1068	637	1465	2671	4559	2933	681	1640	726	977	1072	570	1922	2175	1115	724	1098	4569	4191	952	491	638	1648	1094	595	703	418	9370	3796	670	645	3035	1050	1483	950	573	2496	486	4033	1269	848	2710	3184	343	511	787	853	532	734	3175	1147	1230	614	643	365	1037	2522	963	575	1085	1767	452	635	905	302	1126	3625	1299	830	321	838	714	1721	994	2505	2645	774	1564	795	1917	576	1655	2541	437	1626	298	548	2151	1171	996	1191	2443	1001	825	2414	1284	1676	889	524	1414	1157	993	1085	2388	1403	7529	4982	2640	2274	16410	8560	511	2176	775	789	15080	2549	941	246	468	16010	820	1481	366	327	1521	316	486	901	2527	1553	540	803	1121	7415	1607	2767	282	1259	793	667	571	1561	318	1422	3045	558	713	2610	4008	700	9460	1369	1066	6436	1753	2452	2240	1314	1114	3637	1245	2729	1778	670	1099	808	1556	545	5783	457	1394	294	4755	965	618	1468	859	293	330	5722	4395	1099	543	6633	896	639	13140	2469	1355	2493	722	506	742	833	1584	221	844	956	1082	546	551	930	1665	541	982	3010	1502	1108	2500	711	1107	4234	1290	746	502	4974	3084	2684	954	466	5269	699	1498	935	1619	4764	661	535	538	1214	995	806	399	1050	697	1012	605	554	112	2135	4070	785	561	866	4494	3427	2156	2554	4275	1049	955	892	761	689	751	772	158	2630	556	776	839	1663	6825	2213	782	1079	6409	694	981	2874	738	627	773	903	1482	767	2673
2020-10-17	304	681	993	557	1228	1518	1175	407	1763	3456	4003	1225	1426	1269	995	1040	1967	1706	17720	1167	4144	2358	682	7640	641	2230	687	13840	723	713	3136	524	1705	3421	598	2447	1085	648	1513	2773	4684	2991	689	1661	748	981	1076	570	1942	2241	1119	732	1108	4642	4247	970	497	651	1687	1109	607	718	429	9670	3876	682	647	3074	1069	1498	956	587	2542	497	4109	1303	850	2755	3196	351	525	798	859	543	741	3234	1168	1241	617	648	373	1058	2554	976	583	1123	1809	455	637	906	304	1158	3675	1350	833	323	844	723	1721	1010	2528	2693	790	1574	806	1943	581	1688	2569	439	1660	300	552	2188	1179	1007	1219	2482	1012	832	2454	1294	1710	894	527	1430	1159	1003	1093	2402	1426	7733	5110	2671	2336	16780	8629	513	2205	787	810	15460	2571	953	251	476	16330	841	1491	369	332	1539	318	492	910	2582	1572	543	813	1129	7560	1629	2789	293	1299	808	673	581	1597	322	1439	3116	564	732	2641	4050	719	9820	1382	1086	6549	1779	2516	2262	1335	1133	3704	1253	2732	1830	674	1106	833	1589	557	5896	463	1428	295	4875	984	627	1522	868	301	338	5828	4452	1119	546	6940	922	643	13420	2508	1375	2535	733	518	754	850	1613	223	846	978	1101	552	563	942	1721	549	1008	3056	1512	1118	2510	726	1124	4319	1325	760	505	5112	3170	2710	968	471	5340	700	1508	952	1627	4847	678	541	558	1227	1011	815	401	1051	702	1030	614	559	113	2149	4111	795	566	879	4544	3494	2190	2581	4353	1080	960	908	771	701	760	776	164	2742	568	784	851	1676	7008	2241	794	1093	6486	704	993	2890	746	631	779	910	1524	777	2736
2020-10-18	307	689	1011	562	1251	1523	1180	409	1776	3488	4074	1248	1449	1283	1008	1063	1974	1713	18110	1184	4212	2417	691	7825	647	2269	697	14030	726	720	3175	529	1738	3523	604	2473	1094	656	1561	2879	4812	3051	698	1685	772	984	1081	575	1963	2310	1123	740	1118	4714	4310	988	504	665	1725	1124	619	732	439	9920	3958	693	650	3113	1087	1501	961	601	2589	507	4206	1338	853	2802	3244	358	539	810	866	554	749	3293	1189	1253	620	650	376	1078	2578	988	592	1153	1854	458	639	906	307	1192	3729	1402	836	324	849	733	1729	1026	2557	2742	807	1589	818	1969	586	1721	2589	441	1694	302	556	2199	1186	1018	1225	2522	1030	839	2494	1305	1744	898	530	1445	1168	1013	1102	2415	1449	7861	5243	2703	2366	17120	8699	515	2234	800	832	15850	2593	964	256	484	16590	863	1501	371	337	1558	320	498	920	2637	1591	546	823	1137	7708	1638	2811	303	1340	824	679	591	1634	327	1447	3189	570	750	2673	4093	737	10220	1394	1107	6663	1806	2581	2283	1357	1153	3770	1259	2751	1866	681	1113	858	1618	570	6010	470	1461	296	4976	998	636	1578	877	307	346	5937	4510	1127	550	7262	949	646	13710	2547	1395	2577	744	531	766	866	1644	226	847	1001	1120	558	575	955	1778	557	1022	3103	1526	1128	2520	742	1140	4389	1360	771	509	5253	3253	2743	983	476	5412	705	1518	961	1633	4931	696	546	559	1240	1028	825	403	1053	707	1048	622	563	114	2163	4153	805	570	879	4621	3561	2224	2596	4433	1088	965	924	781	713	769	780	171	2791	581	792	862	1690	7170	2268	799	1105	6604	715	1004	2906	755	634	786	916	1568	787	2803

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-12 to 2020-10-18

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Hackney	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-11	291	631	887	527	1098	1489	1144	394	1563	3105	3594	1092	1294	1179	963	911	1924	1665	15548	1069	3756	2028	650	6596	605	2013	628	12421	706	666	2904	504	1507	2844	562	2296	946	592	1238	2201	3974	2656	638	1466	620	960	1049	554	1818	1854	1093	686	1048	4139	3888	864	459	576	1463	1020	522	633	370	7690	3419	613	633	2845	957	1225	922	504	2277	437	3640	1105	836	2488	3073	306	442	729	822	478	671	2888	1045	1174	597	602	325	936	2302	902	533	889	1322	436	626	890	290	969	3250	1066	813	315	810	667	1676	917	2223	2412	693	1503	735	1792	552	1496	2288	428	1460	289	525	1912	1134	943	944	2252	937	790	2218	1232	1509	869	512	1320	1125	942	1045	2321	1292	6439	4107	2489	1854	14028	8206	503	2037	714	689	12645	2439	886	223	427	13535	711	1431	352	303	1429	306	458	855	2261	1459	526	755	1078	6344	1353	2660	235	1071	719	640	521	1384	296	1352	2700	529	623	2454	3805	612	7011	1308	969	5881	1626	2139	2132	1212	1019	3309	1164	2625	1495	642	1066	688	1330	485	5112	424	1129	290	4073	850	572	1209	814	232	292	4982	4108	960	524	5266	762	623	11116	2277	1255	2289	669	447	683	744	1444	209	834	850	991	515	480	869	1383	502	841	2713	1402	1060	2451	630	1027	3672	1125	656	486	4326	2569	2531	880	440	4922	670	1450	808	1552	4356	577	509	404	1102	913	762	391	1042	673	924	561	530	107	2071	3862	734	540	767	4184	3114	1991	2334	3735	851	932	816	713	632	708	754	126	1993	498	736	783	1598	5763	2080	719	962	5748	643	925	2801	693	608	754	873	1279	718	2277
2020-10-12	294	639	904	533	1120	1494	1160	401	1586	3171	3677	1112	1314	1189	976	942	1933	1683	15830	1085	3849	2079	662	6730	610	2072	636	12650	714	674	2941	510	1539	2938	567	2322	967	603	1286	2274	4081	2718	650	1499	635	970	1062	562	1835	1913	1105	693	1062	4233	3964	883	466	588	1502	1035	531	641	380	7951	3497	624	639	2878	975	1259	929	513	2315	445	3729	1133	839	2532	3133	312	455	740	837	488	683	2945	1064	1187	602	614	331	959	2336	914	539	916	1394	441	630	893	297	992	3318	1118	823	318	815	674	1695	931	2268	2478	710	1528	748	1824	557	1531	2324	434	1494	292	529	1948	1143	960	968	2289	955	800	2252	1243	1543	875	514	1344	1142	951	1055	2352	1312	6595	4256	2528	1909	14520	8291	507	2062	726	707	13100	2461	898	227	436	13890	727	1440	358	308	1445	309	464	864	2309	1477	537	765	1131	6538	1385	2704	242	1096	754	651	533	1416	300	1366	2773	535	640	2481	3866	627	7670	1321	986	5990	1649	2201	2152	1231	1046	3381	1177	2657	1531	650	1078	712	1372	493	5274	430	1162	293	4183	866	580	1261	822	239	298	5140	4176	978	529	5432	783	632	11500	2310	1271	2338	677	458	698	760	1476	213	838	876	1008	522	495	881	1429	508	858	2763	1418	1069	2480	637	1041	3774	1146	673	489	4441	2667	2561	897	445	5016	678	1465	821	1562	4449	588	515	415	1123	928	771	396	1047	684	944	569	543	109	2104	3950	744	548	778	4282	3174	2026	2373	3830	874	942	830	726	642	717	764	128	2070	515	746	790	1620	5959	2109	732	980	5911	652	938	2839	702	612	765	890	1310	729	2354
2020-10-13	296	649	923	538	1146	1501	1175	408	1612	3234	3772	1137	1335	1203	993	973	1954	1702	16140	1102	3947	2132	673	6865	616	2151	646	12920	723	682	2985	519	1573	3033	574	2354	989	614	1343	2358	4188	2791	666	1535	650	981	1074	570	1855	1966	1118	704	1079	4332	4066	905	473	603	1548	1050	538	649	391	8211	3583	636	646	2921	995	1293	936	522	2360	456	3814	1163	845	2573	3188	318	466	752	858	497	694	3010	1082	1202	604	621	337	986	2378	929	548	942	1481	446	636	896	305	1015	3399	1175	834	321	823	684	1722	947	2326	2556	729	1558	762	1869	563	1573	2362	442	1534	298	534	1974	1154	976	1001	2334	977	812	2295	1257	1582	882	517	1374	1166	962	1066	2385	1339	6756	4445	2576	1976	15110	8374	513	2097	740	724	13680	2483	908	232	445	14390	743	1455	366	314	1467	313	470	874	2377	1502	549	777	1162	6804	1413	2746	248	1121	795	664	546	1455	306	1381	2862	542	659	2512	3947	646	8450	1334	1003	6121	1681	2263	2175	1254	1074	3457	1194	2711	1574	660	1091	744	1415	502	5426	436	1205	297	4290	883	590	1326	832	250	307	5317	4236	994	533	5643	801	645	11960	2346	1291	2389	687	471	718	775	1511	218	844	906	1031	530	507	895	1478	516	879	2822	1438	1081	2512	649	1059	3903	1173	686	493	4569	2771	2594	916	453	5134	691	1485	833	1574	4554	598	521	427	1143	947	785	402	1051	700	960	579	557	111	2144	4059	755	557	788	4396	3239	2065	2423	3944	898	955	848	740	653	729	773	132	2145	535	756	802	1652	6183	2144	746	1007	6086	665	952	2877	716	615	778	907	1347	741	2447
2020-10-14	299	658	943	543	1174	1508	1195	415	1647	3305	3867	1163	1356	1215	1009	1007	1975	1723	16460	1120	4028	2186	690	6997	622	2236	656	13180	731	689	3031	527	1607	3135	580	2386	1004	628	1402	2445	4297	2865	683	1576	664	991	1088	576	1875	2020	1131	715	1093	4444	4173	927	481	618	1590	1066	547	658	400	8500	3673	649	653	2965	1014	1331	943	532	2406	467	3917	1193	852	2618	3255	324	478	764	879	509	710	3075	1101	1216	606	629	345	1015	2421	944	558	974	1574	452	641	899	312	1035	3483	1234	845	325	830	694	1751	964	2387	2629	749	1591	777	1916	568	1615	2407	449	1575	305	538	2009	1164	993	1028	2379	991	824	2338	1271	1621	889	520	1402	1189	973	1075	2420	1366	6940	4635	2623	2037	15700	8459	519	2132	754	743	14310	2506	922	237	454	14920	759	1472	373	320	1488	317	476	884	2442	1527	561	789	1196	7069	1440	2791	255	1151	834	678	559	1495	311	1395	2951	549	677	2543	4028	665	9270	1348	1020	6254	1714	2326	2198	1277	1103	3536	1211	2766	1618	670	1106	776	1466	511	5579	443	1246	300	4414	900	601	1393	843	259	317	5484	4301	1010	536	5889	820	657	12480	2383	1311	2443	696	485	736	792	1547	223	850	932	1055	537	521	908	1525	524	903	2882	1464	1092	2543	661	1074	4034	1200	701	497	4696	2886	2625	936	458	5254	701	1507	847	1588	4659	612	527	440	1161	966	798	408	1055	716	978	590	577	113	2186	4165	767	567	801	4521	3306	2105	2474	4057	919	968	865	757	664	740	783	137	2212	556	764	813	1686	6385	2179	757	1034	6249	677	966	2915	727	619	788	926	1381	754	2547
2020-10-15	301	667	963	548	1200	1515	1219	423	1679	3391	3965	1188	1378	1228	1026	1048	1992	1744	16790	1138	4111	2241	706	7134	627	2327	666	13460	739	697	3079	536	1642	3242	586	2418	1022	639	1464	2529	4400	2937	700	1612	680	1002	1100	583	1895	2077	1144	727	1108	4544	4280	949	488	634	1634	1080	556	666	411	8798	3764	662	661	3009	1033	1369	951	542	2451	478	4013	1225	858	2666	3320	330	489	776	901	519	720	3139	1119	1231	609	642	352	1044	2465	958	568	1011	1672	457	645	902	319	1057	3565	1300	857	328	837	704	1778	981	2447	2700	769	1624	791	1963	574	1654	2450	457	1617	311	543	2044	1171	1010	1050	2426	1014	836	2382	1286	1661	895	524	1435	1212	984	1084	2452	1393	7127	4841	2669	2111	16350	8548	526	2167	768	762	14940	2529	933	242	465	15410	775	1487	381	326	1510	321	482	894	2514	1552	569	800	1231	7342	1472	2844	262	1181	877	690	574	1535	314	1412	3042	555	698	2575	4112	685	10200	1363	1037	6389	1748	2391	2219	1301	1134	3611	1228	2823	1664	680	1120	810	1511	519	5729	449	1286	303	4537	917	608	1463	854	270	327	5660	4368	1033	540	6113	839	670	12960	2420	1331	2496	705	499	755	807	1584	227	856	960	1079	545	532	921	1574	531	927	2944	1485	1103	2576	669	1090	4190	1226	719	501	4829	3005	2651	955	465	5377	714	1527	862	1602	4764	622	534	455	1181	985	813	414	1058	732	996	600	594	115	2232	4279	778	576	813	4643	3372	2147	2526	4173	943	980	883	769	675	752	794	143	2294	577	773	828	1718	6596	2215	774	1061	6426	688	981	2954	736	623	798	945	1417	766	2644
2020-10-16	304	677	984	555	1223	1522	1234	430	1712	3451	4065	1212	1400	1240	1044	1087	2013	1764	17120	1153	4195	2297	715	7278	633	2399	676	13730	746	705	3125	545	1678	3336	592	2450	1041	649	1528	2623	4501	3006	716	1650	696	1014	1110	589	1914	2136	1155	737	1123	4641	4380	972	496	650	1677	1094	564	675	422	9103	3857	676	667	3054	1053	1402	957	551	2494	489	4089	1253	864	2712	3373	336	499	786	923	530	730	3208	1138	1246	613	651	358	1073	2508	974	577	1043	1773	463	651	904	327	1081	3652	1356	868	332	844	714	1806	997	2509	2764	789	1656	806	2010	579	1691	2491	464	1659	317	547	2078	1179	1027	1076	2473	1031	846	2427	1301	1702	902	527	1469	1233	996	1092	2485	1421	7309	5038	2714	2180	16880	8627	532	2203	783	782	15540	2549	945	247	475	15940	791	1500	389	331	1531	325	488	904	2588	1577	580	812	1263	7605	1495	2897	268	1207	921	702	587	1577	317	1427	3136	562	715	2606	4196	705	11100	1376	1054	6526	1782	2454	2240	1325	1165	3688	1245	2879	1713	689	1133	846	1555	528	5872	456	1326	306	4663	933	618	1533	864	279	334	5822	4424	1054	544	6327	856	683	13430	2458	1351	2549	715	512	772	823	1622	231	862	986	1104	552	548	935	1614	539	949	3003	1506	1115	2608	681	1106	4295	1257	731	505	4964	3127	2681	975	471	5502	729	1548	877	1615	4871	631	540	469	1202	1005	827	420	1063	749	1014	610	606	117	2272	4399	790	585	824	4741	3441	2189	2576	4288	963	993	902	783	687	764	805	146	2383	599	782	837	1751	6774	2251	785	1085	6586	700	996	2987	747	627	809	964	1454	778	2747
2020-10-17	306	687	1005	560	1247	1528	1247	438	1732	3498	4167	1236	1423	1251	1062	1124	2030	1784	17450	1171	4268	2355	725	7413	638	2484	686	14010	753	713	3172	554	1712	3432	598	2484	1061	659	1595	2718	4599	3080	732	1681	711	1024	1120	593	1934	2193	1167	747	1137	4741	4473	995	503	666	1718	1110	572	683	433	9397	3950	689	674	3098	1072	1439	962	562	2542	501	4162	1284	870	2757	3427	343	508	797	946	541	741	3275	1155	1261	616	657	364	1103	2552	989	588	1075	1877	468	657	906	334	1100	3737	1414	880	335	851	725	1833	1014	2569	2834	809	1688	821	2055	585	1730	2528	472	1703	323	551	2109	1188	1046	1096	2519	1044	858	2472	1316	1744	908	530	1496	1252	1007	1100	2518	1450	7471	5240	2755	2236	17510	8686	537	2240	798	800	16220	2572	955	252	484	16530	807	1513	397	337	1554	329	494	914	2667	1603	591	825	1297	7887	1527	2939	276	1237	964	715	601	1619	321	1443	3227	569	732	2639	4283	726	12210	1388	1071	6666	1816	2513	2258	1350	1195	3770	1262	2934	1761	696	1141	882	1599	539	6003	462	1362	309	4776	949	625	1604	873	290	344	5972	4461	1069	548	6572	872	696	13910	2496	1372	2604	725	526	790	838	1660	235	868	1014	1129	559	561	950	1671	547	970	3063	1526	1126	2634	694	1120	4444	1284	741	508	5098	3251	2706	994	477	5631	737	1568	891	1627	4980	638	547	481	1221	1024	842	426	1066	766	1030	621	618	120	2308	4493	801	595	835	4816	3508	2227	2620	4402	984	1006	920	791	698	777	815	150	2453	622	790	845	1785	6960	2287	793	1112	6707	710	1010	3021	758	630	820	980	1487	791	2836
2020-10-18	308	697	1026	565	1269	1535	1258	445	1752	3557	4272	1264	1445	1262	1081	1158	2050	1804	17790	1188	4336	2414	736	7547	644	2573	696	14290	760	720	3221	563	1745	3536	604	2517	1073	669	1665	2815	4698	3160	748	1717	727	1035	1131	599	1954	2240	1178	758	1150	4837	4580	1019	511	682	1766	1126	579	691	443	9672	4045	703	682	3143	1089	1473	967	572	2589	513	4252	1315	877	2796	3504	349	520	808	969	552	753	3342	1173	1276	619	662	370	1135	2595	1005	598	1106	1996	474	663	908	342	1126	3825	1476	892	339	859	735	1861	1031	2632	2903	831	1717	836	2106	590	1772	2567	481	1748	330	555	2127	1196	1063	1115	2567	1062	871	2518	1331	1787	914	534	1523	1272	1019	1109	2554	1479	7605	5453	2800	2281	18170	8750	544	2277	813	821	16880	2594	967	256	494	17000	824	1527	406	344	1576	334	500	925	2738	1629	601	837	1337	8189	1555	2981	283	1263	1012	728	615	1663	324	1457	3323	576	752	2671	4371	747	13390	1401	1089	6810	1852	2571	2279	1375	1225	3849	1279	2991	1804	705	1154	921	1646	548	6136	469	1403	312	4892	964	636	1688	884	303	354	6126	4499	1080	552	6801	890	710	14450	2535	1392	2660	735	541	809	851	1700	238	874	1046	1155	568	573	965	1719	555	987	3132	1546	1138	2659	706	1135	4576	1313	750	512	5238	3371	2734	1016	483	5762	747	1587	902	1640	5091	646	553	491	1240	1045	856	432	1070	783	1045	632	630	122	2346	4607	815	605	843	4910	3578	2268	2665	4520	1001	1019	939	801	710	790	826	154	2511	646	798	857	1819	7145	2324	801	1139	6857	722	1023	3049	769	634	830	998	1524	804	2950

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

2020-10-13

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-11 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-10-11