COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-10-01

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	04-15	--	--	04-29	--	04-16	04-17	04-10	--	08-26	--	03-28	--	03-27	05-14	--	04-18	03-30	--	--	09-20	--	--	--	04-02	--	04-04	--	05-03	04-20	03-26	03-26	--	--	04-26	03-27	05-11	09-07	--	--	--	--	--	03-28	04-08	04-08	04-21	03-29	04-17	--	04-16	04-03	03-30	--	--	05-06	05-03	--	--	04-17	04-11	05-03	--	04-02	--	--	--	04-20	03-27	--	--	03-30	--	--	04-18	--	04-19	05-13	--	--	04-23	04-25	04-17	--	04-12	--	--	04-16	04-16	04-22	04-16	04-23	--	03-30	03-25	03-25	--	--	04-18	04-28	05-11	03-27	--	--	--	04-19	04-15	03-30	--	03-28	04-05	--	--	04-15	--	--	03-25	--	03-25	04-23	--	--	04-18	03-26	07-01	03-23	--	--	04-13	04-19	--	05-03	--	04-17	04-21	--	03-25	05-03	04-10	08-30	04-07	--	--	09-04	--	--	09-12	04-13	03-25	--	--	--	04-03	04-27	03-22	--	--	05-24	03-29	--	--	03-25	03-27	04-23	04-22	--	04-21	05-05	03-30	--	--	--	09-20	04-20	--	--	04-26	03-25	04-18	05-04	04-22	--	04-08	--	08-02	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-29	04-14	04-14	--	04-07	--	--	04-10	04-08	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	05-14	--	09-10	04-13	--	04-05	--	--	--	--	04-18	04-22	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	09-20	--	--	--	--	03-25	04-28	--	--	04-22	03-26	05-09	--	04-26	--	--	04-18	03-27	08-12	04-14	03-29	--	--	04-14	03-30	--	--	04-24	04-10	03-30	--	04-06	04-05	08-29	07-26	--	03-21	04-07	04-15	--	04-14	04-14	04-02	04-13	04-17	03-25	04-11	--	04-06	--	--	05-13	04-27	--	--	--	09-18	09-02	--	09-20	04-03	04-13	04-18	08-02	05-10	04-07	04-18	--	--	04-19	04-14	--	--	05-03	04-15	--	--	04-14	04-14	--	04-15	04-16	04-15	--	--	--	--
Peak daily increment	5			18		22	13	6		13		27		24	24		17	30			54				8		8		11	9	51	7			12	38	20	11						19	7	15	25	6	19		16	12	12			9	13			23	8	7		4				11	49			18			9		15	11			4	7	15		5			12	18	15	10	6		25	14	8			6	11	13	4				14	7	9		25	13			33			10		30	6			9	28	43	13			9	11		29		20	16		16	18	23	7	16			12			56	6	37				23	24	4			17	24			24	10	10	13		18	12	8				43	4			10	6	18	15	19		10		68		7							33	18	12		22			9	17					7		4		10	6		14					21	7			8					15					3	25			18	5	19		8			17	15	7	8	12			7	7			27	14	9		9	28	10	16		7	7	7		14	10	6	21	7	11	6		6			10	15				22	12		12	12	12	8	7	8	11	2			11	14			37	10			8	15		12	10	10
Days since peak	169			155		168	167	174		36		187		188	140		166	185			11				182		180		151	164	189	189			158	188	143	24						187	176	176	163	186	167		168	181	185			148	151			167	173	151		182				164	188			185			166		165	141			161	159	167		172			168	168	162	168	161		185	190	190			166	156	143	188				165	169	185		187	179			169			190		190	161			166	189	92	192			171	165		151		167	163		190	151	174	32	177			27			19	171	190				181	157	193			130	186			190	188	161	162		163	149	185				11	164			158	190	166	150	162		176		60		164							155	170	170		177			174	176					164		140		21	171		179					166	162			188					11					190	156			162	189	145		158			166	188	50	170	186			170	185			160	174	185		178	179	33	67		194	177	169		170	170	182	171	167	190	173		178			141	157				13	29		11	181	171	166	60	144	177	166			165	170			151	169			170	170		169	168	169
Last total	262	533	690	469	855	1421	966	319	1314	2514	2718	846	1087	1054	799	605	1718	1437	12581	864	2914	1539	513	5259	547	1323	528	9902	612	590	2472	416	1158	1991	499	1984	760	461	758	1502	2998	1940	498	1137	478	846	921	471	1621	1315	941	580	869	3249	2979	656	380	435	1066	861	449	546	1474	268	5375	2623	479	554	2440	771	936	850	389	1845	336	2727	837	768	2058	2424	234	324	612	612	356	565	2272	876	1028	553	506	266	668	1890	741	439	626	588	380	566	863	225	748	2495	602	687	277	722	573	1381	744	1698	521	1224	582	1386	486	1146	1872	345	1094	227	467	1596	1036	764	698	1811	755	666	1815	1099	1128	788	473	1025	918	835	946	1941	1044	4924	2612	2068	1247	9474	7336	442	1716	578	523	7931	2165	771	181	342	9690	548	1279	283	243	1225	259	395	751	1678	1216	415	642	716	4246	1088	2175	170	821	398	512	377	1027	249	1175	1922	445	453	2121	2968	442	2757	1158	797	4651	1336	1594	1901	993	737	2577	1007	2099	1087	544	937	432	943	403	3819	364	801	249	3050	673	481	701	710	153	207	3599	3465	811	473	3443	581	493	7327	1919	1048	1800	551	336	520	594	1120	160	769	608	783	438	368	735	966	423	634	2154	1210	937	2108	532	841	2582	871	518	438	3121	1670	2174	696	368	3722	549	1256	676	1423	3372	475	438	288	914	728	630	326	986	519	768	459	389	79	1637	2737	622	434	646	3076	2486	1620	1897	2731	639	801	644	585	528	592	640	92	1282	317	642	672	1287	4003	1729	593	735	4341	528	781	2386	578	560	631	684	973	584	1493
Last daily increment	2	8	6	3	8	5	10	6	19	56	41	13	10	3	12	14	11	24	217	11	50	36	5	101	1	13	3	199	6	8	37	6	13	34	6	16	14	3	24	27	66	46	5	12	7	3	9	5	13	34	7	10	3	56	53	8	5	7	28	1	6	4	13	4	147	54	7	2	21	6	29	3	5	22	3	56	12	3	24	40	0	6	2	13	7	8	46	10	5	2	5	1	19	29	8	10	6	20	2	2	4	1	19	50	15	7	1	7	12	15	14	63	10	15	9	28	1	14	31	1	33	5	4	18	4	15	14	36	7	3	31	14	32	3	0	22	13	11	1	35	17	132	134	31	30	441	67	1	26	8	8	359	14	6	1	8	391	8	6	7	5	9	1	5	4	56	8	4	11	13	222	16	30	0	18	13	8	8	19	0	7	49	3	3	16	75	8	289	13	7	111	25	32	13	10	4	51	5	39	39	5	6	9	34	3	114	2	23	1	75	12	6	31	5	2	4	132	49	14	3	114	6	5	299	32	15	30	4	4	7	10	16	1	2	18	9	5	7	9	38	3	17	58	17	6	22	10	17	72	16	6	1	83	46	27	9	5	117	1	9	7	8	57	5	3	7	15	4	7	3	5	3	8	5	2	1	34	110	5	5	9	58	51	21	20	74	5	10	6	4	3	5	5	2	36	14	3	14	20	115	10	7	15	80	11	7	24	10	3	10	11	11	7	45
Last week	10	50	65	36	84	18	34	14	104	218	237	88	76	24	73	68	79	88	1360	60	262	174	31	557	15	116	22	1096	31	26	172	31	90	158	22	108	68	28	110	320	411	218	38	79	33	41	36	29	68	128	55	34	38	353	324	38	26	30	116	27	29	19	97	17	689	274	68	17	165	65	153	27	27	145	22	259	57	9	181	204	8	23	23	68	24	51	262	48	51	22	14	15	68	157	57	30	77	203	11	24	13	18	83	331	102	36	10	26	79	86	51	327	71	92	42	174	18	132	134	14	178	24	19	132	25	60	72	131	49	35	142	65	183	14	8	129	65	30	33	169	74	579	608	157	156	2023	362	18	128	54	53	2032	99	22	9	30	2498	35	45	23	25	57	14	14	32	234	69	25	36	110	1091	89	188	13	68	69	31	34	89	9	38	327	21	30	67	460	28	907	68	54	478	131	228	82	66	43	366	40	222	144	32	28	101	135	53	520	14	133	14	330	56	29	126	23	17	31	591	307	79	16	692	56	32	1260	153	88	191	43	34	52	50	105	14	18	58	67	36	22	34	164	22	72	320	76	45	125	40	75	477	99	37	13	444	290	129	54	22	571	18	49	31	32	403	21	24	29	87	19	30	17	20	34	49	20	41	5	177	419	32	43	40	350	240	131	142	355	51	46	39	26	28	32	36	6	199	59	25	40	107	577	92	41	70	573	33	45	154	54	14	62	46	91	36	228
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-21	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	03-25	--	04-14	06-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	03-23	03-23	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment										45																		65																										40											73																																																																											43				39		81	75																																																																																																			43																	31																					28	31
Low between peaks										1																																																																																																																																		1				0			12																																																																																																			1																																						1	1

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-02 to 2020-10-08

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-01	262	533	690	469	855	1421	966	319	1314	2514	2718	846	1087	1054	799	605	1718	1437	12581	864	2914	1539	513	5259	547	1323	528	9902	612	590	2472	416	1158	1991	499	1984	760	461	758	1502	2998	1940	498	1137	478	846	921	471	1621	1315	941	580	869	3249	2979	656	380	435	1066	861	449	546	1474	268	5375	2623	479	554	2440	771	936	850	389	1845	336	2727	837	768	2058	2424	234	324	612	612	356	565	2272	876	1028	553	506	266	668	1890	741	439	626	588	380	566	863	225	748	2495	602	687	277	722	573	1381	744	1698	521	1224	582	1386	486	1146	1872	345	1094	227	467	1596	1036	764	698	1811	755	666	1815	1099	1128	788	473	1025	918	835	946	1941	1044	4924	2612	2068	1247	9474	7336	442	1716	578	523	7931	2165	771	181	342	9690	548	1279	283	243	1225	259	395	751	1678	1216	415	642	716	4246	1088	2175	170	821	398	512	377	1027	249	1175	1922	445	453	2121	2968	442	2757	1158	797	4651	1336	1594	1901	993	737	2577	1007	2099	1087	544	937	432	943	403	3819	364	801	249	3050	673	481	701	710	153	207	3599	3465	811	473	3443	581	493	7327	1919	1048	1800	551	336	520	594	1120	160	769	608	783	438	368	735	966	423	634	2154	1210	937	2108	532	841	2582	871	518	438	3121	1670	2174	696	368	3722	549	1256	676	1423	3372	475	438	288	914	728	630	326	986	519	768	459	389	1637	2737	622	434	646	3076	2486	1620	1897	2731	639	801	644	585	528	592	640	92	1282	317	642	672	1287	4003	1729	593	735	4341	528	781	2386	578	560	631	684	973	584	1493
2020-10-02	264	535	698	473	874	1423	970	322	1335	2557	2759	861	1095	1057	811	605	1723	1448	12830	874	2958	1567	516	5354	549	1330	531	10090	615	593	2500	420	1176	2019	505	1991	772	465	768	1570	3044	1979	503	1137	483	848	928	475	1636	1335	947	581	871	3302	3032	660	383	446	1083	865	453	549	1507	270	5524	2663	493	556	2462	774	949	850	396	1864	338	2759	843	769	2058	2450	235	329	615	624	359	565	2301	882	1032	555	508	268	682	1910	752	446	626	610	382	570	863	227	778	2537	618	693	278	726	592	1395	755	1765	536	1234	589	1422	489	1160	1897	346	1127	231	470	1613	1039	771	708	1851	761	670	1843	1111	1160	788	474	1044	930	840	950	1974	1055	5018	2741	2096	1265	9750	7393	444	1739	584	535	8290	2184	774	182	349	10120	553	1285	288	247	1232	262	397	756	1727	1225	419	646	738	4486	1101	2204	171	828	419	516	382	1042	249	1182	1977	448	453	2131	3045	446	2808	1169	816	4741	1356	1655	1911	1002	744	2636	1012	2139	1120	551	940	446	947	408	3913	366	823	250	3111	682	485	709	713	156	207	3707	3495	824	475	3594	589	499	7457	1949	1088	1818	556	341	520	601	1135	162	771	610	794	446	374	743	994	424	646	2206	1223	944	2141	537	851	2654	889	522	440	3198	1711	2191	705	371	3834	552	1262	680	1425	3385	478	441	291	938	730	633	328	988	523	777	462	395	1679	2825	626	440	654	3119	2531	1635	1907	2802	648	807	649	588	531	596	645	92	1314	328	648	677	1304	4137	1739	599	742	4386	532	788	2432	584	564	637	684	978	591	1532
2020-10-03	265	540	705	476	887	1425	974	325	1345	2596	2800	875	1104	1060	821	607	1733	1458	13090	883	2990	1594	518	5448	550	1336	535	10270	618	595	2527	424	1189	2046	510	1997	781	469	785	1636	3087	2017	507	1144	487	849	935	479	1650	1354	953	583	872	3354	3084	664	386	455	1098	869	456	552	1540	271	5657	2703	507	559	2482	776	961	853	401	1883	341	2794	849	770	2059	2481	236	334	617	636	362	566	2343	887	1037	557	509	269	694	1928	762	452	629	628	384	573	864	229	791	2579	633	700	280	729	610	1410	764	1831	549	1252	596	1456	492	1174	1921	347	1159	234	473	1629	1042	778	717	1888	767	674	1868	1123	1193	789	475	1063	938	843	954	2005	1065	5113	2870	2121	1283	10080	7447	445	1760	590	546	8660	2202	777	183	355	10560	559	1291	292	251	1238	265	398	760	1776	1233	422	650	760	4732	1113	2233	172	838	434	520	386	1055	250	1188	2030	451	456	2139	3122	449	2971	1178	833	4827	1374	1690	1919	1011	750	2697	1016	2178	1152	556	943	460	971	413	3990	368	845	252	3165	691	489	728	716	159	210	3800	3533	837	477	3685	596	504	7654	1978	1103	1840	561	347	522	607	1149	163	772	623	804	453	379	750	1025	425	658	2258	1234	950	2171	541	860	2726	905	526	443	3272	1759	2207	713	374	3943	555	1268	683	1428	3426	480	444	296	954	733	636	330	990	527	785	464	400	1695	2891	629	447	662	3156	2574	1657	1915	2872	657	812	653	590	534	600	649	92	1346	339	653	681	1320	4204	1749	605	747	4435	536	795	2458	590	567	643	690	984	598	1570
2020-10-04	266	546	712	480	902	1427	978	329	1353	2640	2841	889	1112	1063	832	613	1744	1467	13340	893	3026	1621	522	5542	551	1342	538	10450	621	598	2554	428	1201	2072	515	2004	792	473	803	1702	3131	2056	512	1155	491	851	941	483	1663	1372	958	584	874	3411	3137	669	388	463	1117	872	459	555	1573	272	5771	2744	521	561	2503	779	973	856	407	1902	343	2833	854	771	2064	2507	236	338	620	648	365	569	2384	893	1041	559	510	271	708	1947	772	457	633	653	385	576	866	231	807	2621	649	706	281	732	629	1423	773	1896	562	1263	604	1490	495	1190	1943	348	1192	238	476	1646	1045	784	727	1925	773	678	1892	1133	1226	789	477	1082	947	847	959	2037	1076	5195	3005	2146	1298	10480	7502	447	1781	596	558	9040	2220	780	184	360	11020	564	1296	296	255	1245	268	399	764	1826	1241	425	655	781	4986	1126	2262	174	846	450	524	390	1069	250	1194	2083	454	457	2149	3198	452	3179	1188	849	4914	1392	1729	1928	1020	756	2761	1021	2219	1185	562	946	475	992	418	4073	369	867	253	3232	700	493	749	719	162	212	3893	3564	849	479	3796	604	509	7876	2007	1124	1861	566	352	528	614	1164	165	774	632	814	460	384	757	1054	426	671	2311	1244	957	2201	546	868	2801	923	530	445	3348	1804	2223	722	376	4056	558	1274	686	1432	3461	483	447	300	974	735	639	331	992	531	794	467	405	1717	2963	632	453	670	3209	2619	1678	1924	2944	666	817	657	593	538	603	653	93	1379	349	659	685	1336	4288	1759	611	753	4490	541	802	2482	596	570	648	696	990	606	1609
2020-10-05	268	552	719	483	916	1428	982	332	1369	2680	2881	903	1120	1066	842	621	1751	1476	13600	902	3061	1648	525	5634	553	1348	541	10640	624	600	2580	431	1212	2098	519	2010	801	477	815	1770	3193	2095	517	1168	496	853	948	486	1676	1390	964	585	875	3464	3189	672	391	471	1132	876	462	558	1607	274	5916	2784	535	563	2522	781	985	861	413	1921	345	2875	859	772	2077	2547	237	342	622	660	367	575	2425	898	1046	561	512	273	720	1964	783	463	636	675	387	579	867	233	825	2664	663	712	282	735	648	1437	782	1961	574	1277	611	1524	498	1207	1965	348	1226	241	479	1661	1048	790	741	1962	779	681	1914	1144	1260	790	478	1101	958	851	963	2068	1087	5298	3143	2170	1320	10820	7554	448	1802	602	569	9440	2237	782	185	365	11480	569	1302	300	259	1251	270	401	768	1877	1249	428	658	803	5250	1139	2291	175	857	466	527	394	1082	251	1201	2136	457	459	2157	3273	455	3317	1202	865	4999	1408	1773	1936	1028	763	2824	1025	2259	1217	567	949	489	1011	422	4158	371	889	254	3291	708	497	768	721	164	216	3990	3603	861	481	3932	611	514	8055	2036	1138	1888	570	357	531	621	1178	167	775	640	823	467	389	764	1092	427	683	2365	1255	963	2230	550	877	2875	939	533	447	3422	1858	2238	730	379	4169	560	1279	689	1437	3507	486	450	304	992	737	642	333	994	535	802	469	410	1747	3035	635	458	677	3261	2663	1705	1932	3016	675	822	662	595	541	607	657	93	1407	360	664	689	1350	4370	1768	617	757	4568	544	808	2520	601	574	653	702	996	613	1647
2020-10-06	270	558	726	487	932	1430	986	335	1381	2726	2921	917	1129	1069	852	624	1762	1485	13870	912	3115	1676	528	5728	554	1354	544	10820	627	603	2606	434	1222	2124	524	2015	810	481	832	1840	3250	2135	521	1178	500	855	954	490	1689	1407	970	587	877	3537	3241	676	393	478	1143	879	465	561	1641	275	6061	2825	549	566	2542	783	997	865	418	1940	347	2905	865	773	2086	2585	238	346	625	672	370	581	2472	903	1050	563	513	274	733	1981	793	468	644	696	389	582	870	235	848	2707	678	718	283	738	668	1451	790	2027	586	1285	618	1558	502	1230	1987	349	1260	245	482	1677	1051	797	756	2000	784	685	1934	1154	1295	790	479	1120	968	855	967	2099	1098	5403	3287	2194	1338	11250	7607	450	1822	608	581	9850	2255	785	187	370	11970	574	1307	304	263	1257	272	402	772	1929	1257	431	662	825	5529	1151	2320	176	868	486	530	399	1095	251	1207	2189	460	460	2166	3350	458	3530	1211	881	5086	1423	1810	1944	1036	769	2888	1030	2299	1250	573	952	505	1041	427	4262	373	911	255	3336	717	501	785	724	167	220	4094	3641	873	484	4091	618	519	8269	2065	1156	1917	574	362	536	627	1193	168	777	646	832	475	393	770	1118	428	695	2420	1266	969	2259	554	885	2952	952	537	449	3498	1919	2254	738	381	4286	563	1285	693	1440	3574	489	453	307	1006	739	644	334	995	539	810	471	415	1767	3098	638	464	684	3318	2707	1734	1940	3089	684	827	666	597	543	610	661	93	1456	371	669	693	1365	4481	1777	623	762	4629	548	814	2552	607	577	658	710	1001	620	1687
2020-10-07	272	564	733	490	950	1432	990	338	1398	2774	2963	931	1137	1071	862	633	1780	1494	14140	921	3156	1704	531	5822	556	1360	547	11020	629	605	2633	438	1232	2149	528	2020	819	485	855	1913	3311	2175	526	1197	504	856	960	494	1702	1424	975	588	878	3605	3295	680	395	485	1165	883	468	565	1677	276	6206	2866	565	568	2561	784	1010	871	424	1959	349	2940	870	773	2103	2616	238	350	627	684	373	592	2519	909	1055	565	514	276	746	1999	804	474	653	719	390	585	872	237	858	2750	693	723	284	741	688	1464	799	2094	599	1303	625	1593	505	1247	2009	349	1296	248	485	1693	1054	803	769	2038	790	689	1955	1164	1331	791	480	1139	981	858	971	2130	1109	5519	3438	2218	1363	11690	7660	451	1843	613	592	10280	2273	787	188	375	12480	578	1313	308	267	1263	275	403	776	1983	1265	434	666	847	5824	1164	2350	177	883	497	534	403	1108	251	1213	2243	463	461	2174	3428	462	3792	1225	897	5175	1439	1848	1952	1045	775	2954	1034	2341	1284	579	955	520	1071	432	4366	375	934	257	3409	725	505	818	727	170	225	4194	3688	884	486	4256	626	524	8517	2094	1168	1943	579	367	545	634	1208	170	778	660	842	482	398	777	1149	429	708	2477	1280	975	2288	558	894	3032	967	541	451	3576	1980	2269	746	384	4406	566	1290	696	1449	3612	492	456	313	1018	741	647	336	997	543	818	474	420	1795	3174	642	470	691	3378	2752	1770	1947	3165	693	831	670	600	546	614	665	93	1492	382	674	696	1380	4581	1786	628	766	4714	552	821	2581	612	581	664	719	1007	627	1728
2020-10-08	274	570	739	493	955	1434	994	341	1420	2815	3005	945	1146	1074	872	654	1790	1504	14420	931	3203	1732	537	5917	557	1366	550	11210	632	607	2659	441	1242	2175	533	2026	827	489	873	1989	3378	2217	530	1207	508	858	967	498	1715	1441	981	589	880	3658	3350	684	398	492	1186	886	471	568	1713	278	6351	2908	580	570	2581	786	1022	875	429	1979	351	2976	875	774	2124	2649	239	354	629	696	376	600	2561	914	1059	566	516	277	759	2016	814	479	660	741	392	588	875	239	871	2795	708	729	286	744	709	1478	808	2163	611	1318	632	1629	508	1258	2031	350	1332	251	488	1708	1057	809	781	2077	795	692	1975	1174	1368	792	482	1159	991	862	976	2160	1120	5646	3596	2242	1386	12150	7714	453	1864	619	604	10730	2290	790	189	380	13010	583	1318	312	271	1270	277	405	780	2038	1273	436	669	869	6135	1176	2380	178	898	507	537	407	1122	252	1219	2298	466	466	2183	3506	465	4066	1238	914	5265	1454	1880	1961	1053	781	3022	1038	2383	1319	584	958	535	1100	437	4483	376	958	258	3480	734	509	841	729	172	228	4303	3745	896	488	4390	633	530	8784	2124	1178	1977	583	373	551	641	1223	171	779	673	851	489	403	784	1178	430	721	2535	1294	981	2317	563	902	3113	979	544	454	3655	2030	2284	754	387	4530	569	1296	699	1455	3674	494	459	318	1031	743	650	338	999	547	827	476	425	1822	3261	645	475	699	3440	2799	1785	1955	3242	702	836	674	602	549	618	669	93	1531	394	680	700	1395	4686	1795	634	771	4795	556	827	2608	618	584	669	727	1013	634	1770

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-02 to 2020-10-08

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-01	262	533	690	469	855	1421	966	319	1314	2514	2718	846	1087	1054	799	605	1718	1437	12581	864	2914	1539	513	5259	547	1323	528	9902	612	590	2472	416	1158	1991	499	1984	760	461	758	1502	2998	1940	498	1137	478	846	921	471	1621	1315	941	580	869	3249	2979	656	380	435	1066	861	449	546	1474	268	5375	2623	479	554	2440	771	936	850	389	1845	336	2727	837	768	2058	2424	234	324	612	612	356	565	2272	876	1028	553	506	266	668	1890	741	439	626	588	380	566	863	225	748	2495	602	687	277	722	573	1381	744	1698	521	1224	582	1386	486	1146	1872	345	1094	227	467	1596	1036	764	698	1811	755	666	1815	1099	1128	788	473	1025	918	835	946	1941	1044	4924	2612	2068	1247	9474	7336	442	1716	578	523	7931	2165	771	181	342	9690	548	1279	283	243	1225	259	395	751	1678	1216	415	642	716	4246	1088	2175	170	821	398	512	377	1027	249	1175	1922	445	453	2121	2968	442	2757	1158	797	4651	1336	1594	1901	993	737	2577	1007	2099	1087	544	937	432	943	403	3819	364	801	249	3050	673	481	701	710	153	207	3599	3465	811	473	3443	581	493	7327	1919	1048	1800	551	336	520	594	1120	160	769	608	783	438	368	735	966	423	634	2154	1210	937	2108	532	841	2582	871	518	438	3121	1670	2174	696	368	3722	549	1256	676	1423	3372	475	438	288	914	728	630	326	986	519	768	459	389	1637	2737	622	434	646	3076	2486	1620	1897	2731	639	801	644	585	528	592	640	92	1282	317	642	672	1287	4003	1729	593	735	4341	528	781	2386	578	560	631	684	973	584	1493
2020-10-02	264	542	700	474	866	1424	972	322	1335	2554	2758	860	1098	1059	810	618	1731	1451	12830	874	2952	1569	517	5353	549	1340	532	10080	616	594	2502	422	1171	2019	503	2002	773	465	777	1556	3070	1978	504	1149	484	852	928	475	1633	1337	948	585	873	3316	3035	662	383	441	1086	865	454	549	1498	271	5498	2673	489	557	2467	781	957	854	393	1869	339	2760	848	770	2087	2460	235	328	615	624	360	573	2312	884	1035	556	509	268	682	1915	751	445	638	636	382	570	865	228	764	2551	617	693	278	726	584	1396	754	1754	533	1239	589	1417	489	1167	1894	348	1123	231	470	1615	1039	775	707	1838	762	671	1843	1110	1161	790	474	1047	931	842	950	1971	1056	5026	2732	2096	1274	9830	7396	444	1740	586	535	8320	2181	776	183	347	10140	554	1286	288	247	1233	261	398	756	1714	1227	420	650	738	4457	1104	2208	172	834	410	518	383	1042	250	1182	1981	448	455	2133	3050	447	2949	1167	807	4746	1357	1630	1915	1003	744	2633	1013	2140	1113	550	941	447	966	410	3907	366	822	251	3110	683	486	725	714	155	211	3708	3503	823	475	3579	589	498	7564	1946	1067	1832	556	341	527	603	1137	162	771	617	795	443	372	740	993	427	648	2212	1223	945	2133	539	853	2663	889	524	440	3201	1718	2193	705	371	3829	553	1263	680	1431	3428	479	442	292	930	731	635	328	989	524	777	462	395	1671	2818	627	441	654	3129	2531	1640	1921	2795	647	809	650	589	532	597	645	93	1317	327	646	679	1307	4104	1742	598	747	4439	535	789	2414	586	563	639	692	987	591	1531
2020-10-03	265	548	708	478	875	1426	976	323	1353	2577	2792	873	1108	1062	818	626	1744	1460	13080	881	2989	1593	521	5446	550	1355	535	10220	618	597	2526	426	1177	2040	505	2015	779	470	790	1623	3139	2013	508	1156	488	857	934	478	1644	1350	954	590	876	3371	3083	666	386	445	1100	869	457	552	1528	272	5607	2720	501	559	2487	789	976	858	396	1888	342	2790	853	771	2112	2487	235	330	617	632	363	576	2344	889	1040	558	510	270	690	1934	762	448	646	669	383	573	866	230	777	2608	628	698	280	729	595	1409	760	1813	543	1253	595	1439	493	1182	1909	350	1151	233	473	1633	1043	781	714	1861	768	674	1864	1118	1193	791	475	1064	938	845	955	1991	1066	5115	2840	2114	1290	10120	7451	446	1755	592	543	8680	2199	779	185	351	10570	559	1293	291	250	1240	262	399	759	1750	1236	422	653	755	4669	1116	2242	173	842	420	521	387	1055	251	1188	2039	452	460	2141	3136	450	3069	1175	815	4831	1373	1668	1923	1013	752	2697	1019	2176	1133	555	944	464	984	418	3979	368	846	253	3154	691	490	741	716	158	215	3798	3551	833	477	3680	597	502	7752	1969	1081	1859	560	345	532	608	1151	164	773	626	803	448	375	744	1014	429	658	2269	1232	952	2149	542	862	2740	903	528	442	3265	1762	2208	712	375	3930	555	1270	683	1435	3491	481	445	294	942	734	637	330	990	529	784	464	399	1688	2870	631	446	657	3169	2571	1658	1938	2854	656	814	655	591	535	600	649	94	1344	334	649	682	1320	4182	1752	602	754	4520	538	795	2436	592	567	644	698	1000	598	1561
2020-10-04	266	555	718	482	883	1428	980	324	1366	2604	2826	885	1119	1064	826	637	1756	1469	13340	888	3027	1618	527	5540	552	1370	538	10390	621	599	2551	430	1184	2060	507	2028	785	474	804	1689	3208	2048	513	1167	492	861	939	481	1654	1364	959	595	878	3423	3130	670	389	450	1116	873	461	555	1552	274	5708	2768	514	561	2508	796	994	862	399	1907	344	2826	859	772	2139	2511	236	332	620	640	366	580	2373	895	1046	560	511	271	698	1954	773	450	656	706	385	575	868	233	791	2663	639	704	281	732	608	1423	765	1874	553	1264	599	1463	496	1200	1923	352	1180	235	476	1651	1045	786	722	1882	775	678	1885	1125	1225	793	477	1081	944	848	959	2012	1076	5190	2956	2133	1306	10410	7494	448	1773	597	552	9070	2216	782	186	354	11020	564	1299	293	253	1246	264	400	762	1785	1245	424	658	775	4885	1127	2274	174	850	431	525	391	1067	251	1194	2090	455	463	2149	3224	454	3205	1184	823	4913	1388	1709	1931	1022	761	2751	1024	2212	1152	561	948	481	997	426	4053	370	867	254	3211	699	493	758	719	160	218	3891	3590	843	479	3800	605	505	7948	1992	1096	1885	565	349	539	614	1165	165	775	632	811	453	377	747	1034	432	666	2330	1241	959	2165	546	870	2821	918	532	444	3330	1803	2223	719	377	4032	559	1276	686	1440	3552	484	448	298	957	736	640	332	992	533	790	467	402	1712	2925	634	452	662	3212	2611	1675	1954	2915	664	819	660	593	539	603	654	94	1372	340	651	684	1332	4263	1762	607	762	4605	542	802	2458	599	570	650	704	1015	605	1593
2020-10-05	268	562	728	487	896	1429	985	326	1382	2633	2860	897	1130	1066	833	651	1766	1479	13600	896	3069	1642	532	5638	553	1388	541	10600	624	601	2576	434	1190	2084	510	2040	792	480	817	1757	3281	2085	519	1178	496	866	946	485	1664	1380	965	599	880	3484	3178	674	391	454	1131	876	464	558	1581	275	5819	2816	525	565	2528	804	1016	866	402	1927	346	2866	864	773	2169	2549	237	334	623	648	369	583	2407	901	1053	563	512	273	706	1973	785	452	664	749	387	578	870	235	805	2719	650	709	283	735	621	1436	770	1936	564	1277	604	1489	500	1222	1941	353	1209	237	479	1669	1049	792	735	1904	781	682	1905	1132	1258	794	478	1101	953	851	965	2032	1086	5287	3085	2156	1328	10710	7547	449	1793	603	562	9500	2234	785	188	357	11490	569	1305	296	256	1253	265	402	766	1831	1253	426	662	798	5116	1139	2308	176	859	442	527	395	1079	252	1201	2154	458	468	2156	3313	457	3352	1198	830	4996	1404	1757	1940	1031	769	2814	1029	2247	1170	567	950	498	1012	433	4141	372	889	255	3264	708	498	776	722	163	221	3989	3634	854	481	3938	613	509	8144	2015	1111	1918	569	353	545	622	1180	167	776	637	819	456	380	751	1058	434	674	2391	1250	966	2186	550	879	2915	932	536	445	3396	1848	2236	726	380	4137	562	1282	689	1445	3621	486	451	301	972	738	643	334	993	538	800	470	406	1741	2980	637	459	667	3270	2652	1695	1972	2987	672	823	665	596	542	607	659	95	1399	347	653	687	1346	4346	1771	613	769	4714	545	809	2488	606	574	657	710	1029	612	1626
2020-10-06	270	569	736	491	905	1431	989	327	1402	2662	2888	910	1141	1069	841	659	1779	1488	13860	904	3129	1667	536	5737	555	1404	544	10780	626	604	2600	438	1196	2106	512	2053	799	486	831	1828	3355	2119	522	1188	500	871	952	489	1674	1396	971	604	882	3542	3228	678	394	458	1145	880	468	561	1609	276	5937	2865	538	567	2546	811	1036	870	405	1947	348	2894	870	774	2197	2582	238	337	626	659	372	588	2437	905	1060	565	514	274	714	1993	796	454	675	800	389	581	871	239	821	2781	661	715	284	738	632	1449	775	2005	574	1287	609	1514	504	1245	1957	355	1238	239	481	1684	1052	797	745	1926	789	686	1926	1140	1292	795	480	1118	961	854	970	2052	1096	5387	3208	2177	1342	11020	7611	451	1808	610	571	9930	2251	787	190	360	11980	575	1312	299	259	1259	266	403	769	1871	1262	428	665	809	5355	1151	2340	177	868	454	531	400	1091	253	1208	2213	461	470	2164	3404	460	3490	1208	838	5083	1420	1797	1947	1040	778	2879	1034	2283	1192	573	953	516	1029	441	4243	374	916	256	3305	716	502	791	725	165	225	4087	3684	866	483	4090	621	513	8345	2039	1125	1950	573	357	551	628	1194	169	778	642	827	462	382	754	1076	437	683	2464	1259	974	2202	553	888	2996	947	539	447	3466	1902	2250	733	384	4245	565	1288	692	1449	3696	489	454	303	986	741	646	336	994	543	809	472	412	1767	3033	641	464	670	3319	2694	1715	1989	3058	681	828	669	598	545	610	663	96	1435	355	656	691	1361	4439	1781	618	777	4821	548	816	2515	611	577	662	717	1043	619	1657
2020-10-07	271	576	746	495	916	1433	993	328	1425	2693	2925	923	1152	1072	849	667	1794	1497	14140	912	3179	1693	542	5838	556	1420	547	10970	629	605	2626	442	1202	2129	513	2066	807	492	845	1903	3430	2155	526	1201	504	876	958	492	1684	1410	975	609	884	3602	3279	682	396	462	1162	884	472	565	1638	278	6054	2915	552	569	2565	818	1054	874	409	1968	350	2927	876	775	2228	2608	238	338	629	666	375	593	2466	911	1065	567	515	276	721	2012	808	457	683	841	391	584	873	241	836	2845	672	721	286	741	644	1462	780	2077	585	1299	615	1536	508	1261	1973	357	1269	241	484	1705	1055	803	756	1957	795	689	1949	1147	1327	796	481	1137	968	857	973	2073	1107	5500	3348	2197	1358	11330	7672	452	1826	615	580	10390	2268	790	192	362	12480	580	1318	301	262	1266	267	404	772	1909	1271	430	668	821	5607	1163	2369	178	878	464	535	404	1104	254	1215	2276	465	474	2171	3499	463	3632	1218	846	5179	1437	1843	1953	1050	787	2940	1039	2318	1213	579	956	535	1040	450	4342	375	944	258	3353	725	507	809	728	167	229	4191	3737	877	485	4252	629	516	8549	2062	1138	1977	577	361	556	635	1208	171	779	650	836	464	385	758	1097	440	693	2533	1269	981	2221	557	896	3084	962	543	449	3531	1948	2264	740	386	4356	569	1294	695	1454	3763	492	457	307	994	743	648	337	994	548	816	474	415	1797	3089	644	468	674	3369	2736	1741	2004	3136	689	833	674	600	548	613	666	96	1465	362	658	694	1375	4536	1791	623	784	4942	552	823	2540	618	580	667	724	1059	627	1690
2020-10-08	273	582	755	499	924	1435	998	330	1450	2722	2960	936	1163	1075	856	679	1805	1505	14420	920	3228	1719	550	5943	558	1436	551	11180	632	608	2652	446	1206	2150	516	2078	812	498	858	1981	3508	2193	530	1210	508	881	966	497	1693	1425	980	614	886	3658	3329	686	399	466	1178	887	475	568	1679	279	6182	2966	566	573	2584	826	1074	878	411	1987	352	2958	881	776	2260	2635	239	340	632	672	378	597	2494	917	1071	568	517	277	729	2032	820	459	689	885	393	586	875	243	851	2914	683	726	287	744	656	1475	784	2155	596	1313	620	1554	512	1275	1989	359	1300	243	487	1724	1057	809	766	1982	802	691	1970	1154	1362	797	483	1156	975	860	977	2094	1117	5613	3490	2215	1377	11660	7727	454	1842	621	588	10880	2288	792	194	365	13020	585	1324	304	265	1272	268	406	775	1958	1280	432	673	834	5875	1175	2404	180	887	475	538	408	1116	254	1221	2338	468	480	2179	3595	467	3779	1232	854	5273	1450	1891	1960	1059	796	2995	1044	2355	1234	585	958	554	1054	457	4448	377	973	259	3408	734	510	827	731	169	232	4298	3797	884	487	4404	637	520	8765	2086	1153	2008	581	365	562	641	1223	173	781	656	844	467	388	762	1116	442	701	2606	1278	988	2239	560	905	3178	977	547	451	3602	1989	2278	746	390	4470	572	1300	698	1459	3837	494	460	310	1003	746	651	339	996	553	824	477	418	1830	3152	647	475	679	3423	2779	1760	2023	3215	697	838	679	601	551	617	672	97	1497	369	660	698	1388	4638	1800	626	791	5053	556	830	2570	625	584	672	730	1075	635	1725

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

2020-10-13

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-01 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-10-01