COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-10-30 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2021-10-30

Slideshow of forecasts 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how we lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2021-10-30

Aberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-08-312021-08-302021-07-082021-09-142021-09-252021-08-262021-07-11 --2021-08-242021-09-012021-07-072021-09-272021-10-172021-10-172021-10-032021-07-082021-07-082021-07-042021-09-212021-10-192021-10-182021-07-062021-10-162021-10-122021-07-122021-07-0712-292021-09-1912-272021-07-082021-10-082021-10-032021-05-102021-07-062021-01-012021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-10-112021-07-072021-07-072021-10-172021-07-072021-07-072021-10-162021-07-062021-07-072021-07-072021-07-052021-07-072021-07-062021-10-172021-09-282021-07-282021-07-082021-10-042021-10-142021-10-042021-07-072021-08-292021-07-072021-08-102021-10-18 --2021-08-302021-10-122021-10-122021-10-122021-10-032021-10-122021-10-142021-10-192021-10-162021-10-042021-08-222021-08-242021-10-10 --2021-09-092021-10-182021-08-302021-08-102021-10-162021-07-022021-07-072021-10-122021-07-072021-07-072021-10-172021-10-102021-10-162021-09-242021-09-192021-09-292021-10-042021-08-132021-07-07 --2021-08-032021-07-072021-08-162021-06-212021-07-082021-08-29 --2021-10-112021-08-18 --2021-07-072021-10-032021-06-132021-10-022021-08-222021-07-062021-10-182021-10-192021-07-072021-10-192021-10-032021-10-042021-07-092021-07-072021-07-052021-07-062021-08-102021-08-25 --2021-10-102021-08-132021-08-292021-09-082021-07-072021-10-162021-10-192021-10-172021-07-072021-08-232021-10-182021-10-182021-07-082021-07-072021-07-082021-10-122021-09-132021-07-062021-10-082021-10-192021-07-072021-09-132021-07-092021-10-112021-10-052021-07-072021-09-252021-07-052021-08-162021-10-192021-07-082021-09-192021-07-072021-10-112021-08-252021-07-072021-10-172021-10-162021-10-102021-10-032021-06-232021-08-232021-10-042021-09-262021-10-102021-07-072021-07-102021-09-172021-10-172021-07-072021-10-192021-10-0412-272021-07-072021-07-082021-07-072021-01-032021-10-172021-07-082021-09-282021-07-212021-09-0112-262021-10-122021-10-182021-10-17 --2021-07-082021-08-102021-07-102021-09-132021-10-1612-082021-07-082021-10-162021-10-162021-07-072021-08-112021-08-102021-07-072021-08-252021-07-072021-10-112021-10-142021-09-272021-09-072021-10-182021-07-062021-07-032021-10-042021-07-302021-10-162021-08-162021-08-262021-10-192021-10-032021-07-052021-10-122021-10-112021-08-222021-09-212021-10-182021-10-162021-10-172021-10-152021-09-132021-10-042021-10-192021-10-112021-07-072021-09-252021-10-172021-07-072021-10-162021-06-222021-10-132021-07-072021-06-222021-10-032021-07-072021-01-012021-10-092021-07-062021-10-122021-10-172021-10-172021-10-092021-10-112021-08-232021-09-112021-10-172021-10-182021-07-062021-07-052021-10-172021-06-282021-10-17 --2021-09-142021-10-122021-07-072021-10-172021-10-032021-10-102021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0612-23 --2021-06-282021-10-122021-10-132021-07-0807-212021-09-152021-10-172021-07-062021-10-112021-08-182021-10-102021-10-172021-09-192021-10-112021-08-09 --2021-10-042021-09-242021-08-232021-10-082021-10-042021-10-132021-10-172021-10-192021-10-192021-06-272021-07-072021-07-072021-07-072021-10-16 --2021-10-192021-09-132021-10-092021-10-162021-08-252021-07-072021-07-062021-07-042021-09-262021-10-062021-07-052021-10-162021-10-192021-07-072021-09-262021-10-122021-07-072021-06-222021-07-082021-10-18 --2021-07-062021-10-162021-10-162021-08-112021-07-072021-10-122021-07-072021-07-072021-10-192021-08-092021-07-072021-09-272021-10-162021-10-16 --2021-10-162021-07-062021-07-072021-07-092021-07-062021-07-072021-10-192021-07-07 --2021-10-172021-09-292021-07-072021-10-112021-10-132021-08-252021-07-07 --2021-08-252021-10-132021-10-192021-07-072021-07-072021-10-122021-10-162021-10-102021-06-292021-10-102021-10-102021-07-072021-07-072021-10-162021-09-132021-10-152021-10-172021-10-032021-10-042021-07-05
Peak daily increment 179 225 51 98 122 88 100 97 199 127 120 83 198 66 93 260 276 69 147 156 144 296 120 378 177 1250 90 157 159 124 74 208 42 484 107 478 103 92 175 68 118 218 619 107 258 94 72 97 74 161 240 175 72 159 97 62 407 115 190 100 102 282 128 188 200 98 356 258 100 106 123 107 567 69 144 102 81 72 714 111 606 377 47 104 230 126 92 103 85 84 169 63 202 400 47 272 137 184 189 133 116 183 122 103 112 93 157 296 95 158 61 145 33 110 145 105 58 110 128 185 87 171 420 121 67 106 75 174 123 941 178 114 63 113 163 96 95 230 123 67 157 87 152 76 154 143 92 146 54 114 151 165 82 88 203 197 87 139 170 144 71 137 159 70 114 189 84 139 116 246 116 306 311 301 117 705 284 56 213 96 99 121 727 135 145 45 442 96 169 41 162 106 124 77 79 101 119 114 274 115 197 66 99 48 184 164 116 384 111 155 190 141 164 71 96 231 91 102 622 186 57 287 238 47 91 192 283 109 264 131 46 255 30 131 143 57 113 191 343 207 109 104 128 135 113 73 121 289 267 57 148 66 213 77 69 49 116 65 116 88 34 47 253 255 94 83 195 70 104 482 25 221 106 277 200 119 62 120 87 368 86 136 81 470 122 77 132 93 189 84 303 200 152 243 72 143 141 102 60 91 243 339 242 110 204 428 100 157 101 285 328 219 83 60 106 116 120 166 92 78 103 105 131 127 61 226 272 95 77 112 352 191 158 312 195 141 73 109 89 102 193 50 158 94 207 74 156 138 382 642 154 113 243 92 162 185 99 78 77 105 139 112 90 138
Days since peak 60 61 114 46 35 65 111 67 59 115 33 13 13 27 114 114 118 39 11 12 116 14 18 110 115 305 41 307 114 22 27 173 116 302 115 115 115 19 115 115 13 115 115 14 116 115 115 117 115 116 13 32 94 114 26 16 26 115 62 115 81 12 61 18 18 18 27 18 16 11 14 26 69 67 20 51 12 61 81 14 120 115 18 115 115 13 20 14 36 41 31 26 78 115 88 115 75 131 114 62 19 73 115 27 139 28 69 116 12 11 115 11 27 26 113 115 117 116 81 66 20 78 62 52 115 14 11 13 115 68 12 12 114 115 114 18 47 116 22 11 115 47 113 19 25 115 35 117 75 11 114 41 115 19 66 115 13 14 20 27 129 68 26 34 20 115 112 43 13 115 11 26 307 115 114 115 300 13 114 32 101 59 308 18 12 13 114 81 112 47 14 326 114 14 14 115 80 81 115 66 115 19 16 33 53 12 116 119 26 92 14 75 65 11 27 117 18 19 69 39 12 14 13 15 47 26 11 19 115 35 13 115 14 130 17 115 130 27 115 302 21 116 18 13 13 21 19 68 49 13 12 116 117 13 124 13 46 18 115 13 27 20 115 116 116 311 124 18 17 114 466 45 13 116 19 73 20 13 41 19 82 26 36 68 22 26 17 13 11 11 125 115 115 115 14 11 47 21 14 66 115 116 118 34 24 117 14 11 115 34 18 115 130 114 12 116 14 14 80 115 18 115 115 11 82 115 33 14 14 14 116 115 113 116 115 11 115 13 31 115 19 17 66 115 66 17 11 115 115 18 14 20 123 20 20 115 115 14 47 15 13 27 26 117
Last total 20844 21153 6731 13614 17867 10442 19462 16547 6996 33086 17780 19905 16404 25809 8504 32839 51959 43635 10375 27885 19871 18004 24391 26128 51752 34934 173607 15720 30595 23102 11151 12132 47818 9188 52736 14875 90169 19171 14007 44513 11496 21856 34840 69127 13253 41342 14186 14862 15423 17120 31888 27866 33273 12958 26225 15162 16981 52094 16317 23892 13433 18766 35616 5605 25935 24837 12414 18260 50942 47707 13530 11976 11613 18128 58140 6846 24062 1061 12298 9400 11922 57142 7761 82949 50128 6965 15338 51181 19658 17031 17451 10738 12565 37779 7929 27352 51757 34803 12732 49033 12874 21461 50785 16218 8739 13933 15079 11813 18616 16141 11021 11380 13775 43727 17756 21118 11647 16399 6123 16556 44088 19760 10620 16022 14677 18769 12110 12164 16835 40959 19662 12847 8322 11643 32122 17692 97177 15338 10298 16551 12288 36220 15740 10909 35724 22258 10346 24522 12377 34000 13663 20941 34288 11383 16859 11001 14975 39654 18803 15230 13110 15545 43619 15220 14167 41182 19722 14836 9601 16540 6127 15408 27370 16812 14818 15572 41036 22467 68097 29570 43452 19958 131355 61662 9659 36711 14800 14287 18447 84763 34881 22824 7134 6537 96208 17341 40083 6256 12148 11120 27386 7749 8715 15796 24261 17397 25874 11493 37421 9340 9440 5221 23980 16348 16401 50299 18192 51045 22415 25860 16915 8688 13662 23509 14568 13430 55854 22421 6793 25117 33171 9625 14779 34307 43525 16054 53471 20079 9422 42036 552 19739 11785 16334 13569 31439 31049 29523 12127 25484 22052 47338 22183 12499 19415 27044 39394 10112 22908 5959 38852 11619 12458 8820 43918 15788 10416 16969 13487 4152 5144 45742 56119 13460 9184 14382 45005 12095 14746 86238 763 35338 24356 32676 15975 12427 9498 15424 15193 37339 7182 10882 17069 11157 46020 13439 10984 14453 17228 16182 16110 25970 33530 24934 38775 13690 19438 31611 18578 13710 11586 10169 46696 32255 39606 14087 12275 46514 11353 28157 19519 36695 28721 38342 12242 10662 11922 25307 18035 14078 9398 17174 12682 26962 16170 15021 13969 5412 45171 38534 13359 10581 17939 13146 56111 44872 38551 42475 34824 18746 14179 13154 15815 10925 15671 16269 4663 13393 17259 11476 23610 10748 16314 25667 56226 52556 13545 18309 46796 13031 19733 42438 12322 11540 19948 13843 21571 16766 12472 25514
Last daily increment 76 118 25 44 58 50 74 99 30 133 119 57 56 103 43 72 169 142 52 90 90 43 163 76 167 87 375 39 72 56 35 38 91 20 233 72 220 68 45 76 24 39 111 261 86 96 63 32 51 33 65 63 72 50 55 42 41 155 58 91 38 75 206 39 64 103 74 56 179 165 76 70 67 52 110 26 104 13 26 69 29 277 52 253 156 35 81 113 113 50 69 45 30 107 45 63 124 251 29 157 69 42 110 53 79 72 44 68 69 65 32 47 19 170 76 97 35 101 31 90 99 53 28 54 50 62 72 30 69 129 45 23 59 32 113 50 141 83 54 53 30 62 66 59 55 86 47 57 33 64 59 105 91 76 50 28 60 93 101 45 41 124 94 51 82 92 88 31 26 62 17 59 40 34 47 70 131 78 179 60 66 59 367 119 49 69 46 51 81 140 87 99 42 50 172 37 94 21 66 13 65 34 54 117 65 71 50 38 136 41 26 45 45 99 46 131 57 66 60 77 34 54 60 63 71 64 135 82 45 107 175 29 32 107 160 59 99 73 26 65 2 50 109 28 28 120 126 97 44 67 45 121 75 43 92 44 59 49 85 32 106 42 44 41 191 67 30 56 51 20 39 101 119 45 31 55 118 44 81 235 11 143 95 98 90 35 29 96 56 211 42 57 68 32 135 65 52 53 62 95 68 89 133 86 64 45 137 105 79 40 44 37 157 95 82 71 97 152 62 120 83 57 139 96 35 44 73 105 61 73 60 36 37 56 58 76 69 31 66 91 52 47 95 69 169 135 76 77 110 83 50 87 82 26 46 85 50 31 61 58 85 46 100 29 176 299 74 81 128 62 80 98 61 52 28 67 94 44 67 75
Last week 660 1048 226 359 452 401 689 692 314 939 851 457 417 974 294 448 1200 1017 382 715 714 398 1201 675 1214 662 2665 378 424 503 359 320 702 197 1720 515 1639 555 503 681 238 547 1008 1930 605 811 389 311 383 263 727 1044 696 314 433 345 361 1836 377 787 360 524 1489 269 580 784 622 480 1467 1283 567 550 527 442 1137 269 780 94 353 439 248 2017 423 1980 1185 226 540 770 698 444 471 337 376 790 267 424 1103 1903 257 1123 431 462 850 429 494 635 319 513 605 544 260 298 206 1415 534 781 285 715 189 515 773 409 311 443 495 465 473 323 496 1234 540 244 486 391 941 385 1205 690 531 429 265 556 409 491 498 620 381 472 311 506 402 803 692 510 396 288 556 715 784 378 446 636 812 470 767 779 641 220 180 598 231 531 455 285 332 637 852 594 1488 491 612 434 2769 1141 290 501 351 362 637 1119 784 746 256 314 1338 328 779 188 673 230 532 403 364 789 493 447 512 265 1097 375 421 260 709 792 427 1152 452 576 760 604 400 410 445 528 504 453 1132 517 344 1048 1338 253 304 912 1424 511 898 533 243 549 93 328 712 247 291 853 1103 744 476 552 520 765 614 316 587 410 939 294 752 207 788 344 316 268 1258 402 318 460 396 144 242 694 869 475 360 548 1044 360 506 1960 39 1059 523 757 700 287 257 676 427 1581 298 427 553 300 954 489 334 513 497 898 469 655 994 634 485 345 923 781 531 491 316 275 1097 776 903 534 766 1104 473 762 505 908 1259 844 248 314 604 834 506 612 606 380 357 523 483 649 601 260 510 932 454 407 843 535 1302 873 580 718 752 659 368 569 510 260 347 702 289 237 409 475 708 386 795 370 1064 2365 644 569 1050 382 733 786 428 414 476 437 778 463 452 800
Previous peak date07-2107-2112-272021-07-062021-07-0607-2112-2112-2607-2112-2112-2112-2712-0812-2112-2312-2812-2310-1312-2712-232021-07-072021-01-1111-0212-2110-0712-2211-0212-2710-1310-1312-072021-01-0710-1511-1311-0212-2110-2412-2212-2712-2712-1412-0612-2811-0212-2512-2112-2612-2212-3012-3010-2712-0710-2812-2112-2712-2612-0812-0712-2712-0812-2112-2212-21 --11-0212-222021-08-1012-252021-07-0712-212021-07-0612-2112-212021-07-0707-2107-2112-26 --12-292021-07-0612-2712-2912-2411-0212-272021-07-0712-2712-2712-212021-07-0612-2112-212021-07-062021-01-022021-02-2510-0110-1412-2712-0712-2607-2107-2112-2707-2112-252021-08-1007-2112-2712-2111-0907-212021-07-0607-2110-3112-2712-3012-2812-2112-2612-2212-2512-2112-222021-01-06 --07-2112-2612-2712-2207-2112-2512-182021-07-072021-07-062021-07-0412-2607-212021-07-0712-2812-2112-2112-2712-212021-01-0512-2212-272021-07-0712-2112-2112-2112-2812-2712-2812-2112-2312-1312-2712-1312-2912-222021-07-04 --12-2812-3012-2212-2612-212021-01-0107-2112-28 --12-2712-2212-2812-2812-2511-0112-2110-2709-2912-292021-01-0611-0211-0212-2112-272021-07-0711-0212-2109-2812-2712-2212-212021-07-0711-022021-01-0212-222021-07-052021-07-07 --12-212021-08-0912-2212-2212-2112-2112-3107-2112-2212-2712-0607-2112-0712-2812-2911-022021-07-0712-2712-0612-2707-212021-08-092021-07-0710-2612-2612-2107-2111-0112-212021-07-072021-07-042021-07-052021-07-0712-272021-07-062021-01-0211-022021-07-0811-0210-22 --12-2712-0512-2607-212021-01-0611-0211-0212-2811-0212-2912-212021-07-072021-01-0512-2207-2112-0612-2812-2112-2710-1912-1010-1112-1310-1812-3012-2810-1312-252021-01-262021-01-0211-0212-2910-3107-212021-08-0912-3112-2912-2211-02 --12-3012-2512-2512-2107-2112-2112-2112-282021-07-07 --2021-07-0712-2211-0907-2112-2112-2212-202021-07-072021-07-0712-2712-2212-2112-1412-2812-2612-2112-2512-252021-07-0712-2207-2112-2812-2711-0112-212021-07-0812-2212-2712-2112-0712-0212-2510-182021-01-0212-262021-08-092021-01-0312-272021-07-0712-2612-2112-1912-2212-2312-2712-06 --12-2112-2712-2212-2612-0812-2111-0112-2712-2712-1512-2511-0212-2112-2512-2112-2712-262021-07-072021-08-0907-2111-0212-0707-2112-2212-2312-2210-1612-2912-2212-2212-2812-2712-2212-2712-3112-2812-2512-3112-212021-07-062021-07-0811-02
Previous peak daily increment 616 365 61 115 105 295 134 84 119 260 170 110 171 178 78 477 589 189 58 326 152 110 271 233 262 426 1226 75 166 98 95 58 234 50 363 142 434 228 107 524 155 233 307 1197 107 508 94 186 62 122 160 211 137 99 256 87 148 353 172 194 175 107 303 294 268 65 197 270 283 82 91 71 121 1272 83 243 35 115 94 285 34 553 288 53 181 598 151 140 189 72 86 246 27 206 248 193 118 322 226 710 536 308 64 135 383 87 160 106 191 65 235 204 102 163 147 107 56 146 593 273 97 74 475 90 73 94 687 150 125 56 82 274 82 1766 95 56 180 92 451 119 34 377 219 84 201 57 401 172 103 338 101 106 136 120 476 101 159 73 442 57 116 452 143 83 248 134 237 275 148 70 100 283 198 349 153 428 107 1449 479 104 456 79 230 102 480 273 200 90 47 2237 92 419 40 71 298 72 61 153 186 105 213 302 361 79 62 66 191 105 63 2429 105 723 190 212 192 84 93 137 105 51 1007 105 58 203 228 77 96 277 322 121 1343 158 68 257 125 44 108 230 154 139 354 41 150 174 623 297 81 176 459 286 52 188 39 194 139 65 96 212 80 85 67 174 36 25 406 450 81 152 137 403 65 131 573 209 244 167 97 226 111 102 69 345 47 86 72 876 95 79 108 92 107 102 115 247 293 450 131 156 219 94 77 112 149 189 138 197 66 69 206 105 331 189 270 181 172 56 109 143 138 352 92 44 138 122 360 139 51 101 559 151 90 110 122 84 250 329 449 390 227 259 138 119 160 65 154 88 70 307 166 42 376 67 115 217 319 265 83 148 430 106 138 377 106 115 176 95 173 120 74 594
Low between peaks 0 -1 -3 24 40 0 3 -26 5 -11 2 -7 -16 -8 3 -2 9 -2 -28 51 2 -14 -12 9 3 303 -1 55 -10 0 -14 17 2 23 -8 31 -4 -5 -39 -11 1 -1 -18 -8 -8 -10 -16 -1 3 3 1 8 2 -18 -6 -64 5 -9 2 -2 3 -1 -7 -11 21 -3 129 -14 31 -6 0 35 -11 -4 -9 1 25 2 -33 -1 -13 -20 16 -8 -4 -11 43 1 -7 41 2 -3 11 2 -14 -4 -48 -3 -6 -2 49 -3 -12 -2 -5 30 -1 -5 1 -18 -6 -5 0 -4 -80 -12 1 0 -4 0 4 -5 1 -7 19 32 75 2 -7 19 -8 -2 -8 -25 -21 1 -27 -25 27 -5 1 -12 -2 -17 5 2 -1 -8 -12 -20 -9 -1 33 -27 1 -1 12 -5 3 -2 -7 -5 -5 -5 -3 -3 -12 -3 27 21 2 -5 41 120 1 -18 35 -8 2 58 7 -22 0 27 1 -45 11 31 2 20 -3 -10 6 2 5 -15 0 -3 0 0 1 -11 1 15 38 4 2 8 -8 32 39 -3 -7 -6 -7 5 -6 54 88 22 41 -3 111 -4 5 50 1 6 1 1 3 1 5 -74 37 0 0 -8 1 45 -52 -13 -2 1 0 -3 0 3 0 1 -6 -2 0 1 -14 -6 -8 2 -1 -4 -4 -44 3 -6 23 -28 4 -3 -10 -2 -3 -4 -12 56 -5 -4 -7 -11 -5 -1 35 42 -10 2 -2 -3 -17 -2 -40 -13 27 1 -1 -3 4 -5 -7 25 1 -4 -13 -41 3 -9 7 -8 -5 34 -3 37 -4 -9 2 -6 -11 -1 1 5 0 -18 -3 -18 16 -8 -23 -4 -6 -4 4 -13 -5 1 42 17 -2 1 -2 -1 -11 7 5 -37 -9 -5 -69 0 -11 -20 -2 -5 2 1 0 44 35 -48

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2021-10-31 to 2021-11-06

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-10-30 20844 21153 6731 13614 17867 10442 19462 16547 6996 33086 17780 19905 16404 25809 8504 32839 51959 43635 10375 27885 19871 18004 24391 26128 51752 34934 173607 15720 30595 23102 11151 12132 47818 9188 52736 14875 90169 19171 14007 44513 11496 21856 34840 69127 13253 41342 14186 14862 15423 17120 31888 27866 33273 12958 26225 15162 16981 52094 16317 23892 13433 18766 35616 5605 25935 24837 12414 18260 50942 47707 13530 11976 11613 18128 58140 6846 24062 1061 12298 9400 11922 57142 7761 82949 50128 6965 15338 51181 19658 17031 17451 10738 12565 37779 7929 27352 51757 34803 12732 49033 12874 21461 50785 16218 8739 13933 15079 11813 18616 16141 11021 11380 13775 43727 17756 21118 11647 16399 6123 16556 44088 19760 10620 16022 14677 18769 12110 12164 16835 40959 19662 12847 8322 11643 32122 17692 97177 15338 10298 16551 12288 36220 15740 10909 35724 22258 10346 24522 12377 34000 13663 20941 34288 11383 16859 11001 14975 39654 18803 15230 13110 15545 43619 15220 14167 41182 19722 14836 9601 16540 6127 15408 27370 16812 14818 15572 41036 22467 68097 29570 43452 19958 131355 61662 9659 36711 14800 14287 18447 84763 34881 22824 7134 6537 96208 17341 40083 6256 12148 11120 27386 7749 8715 15796 24261 17397 25874 11493 37421 9340 9440 5221 23980 16348 16401 50299 18192 51045 22415 25860 16915 8688 13662 23509 14568 13430 55854 22421 6793 25117 33171 9625 14779 34307 43525 16054 53471 20079 9422 42036 552 19739 11785 16334 13569 31439 31049 29523 12127 25484 22052 47338 22183 12499 19415 27044 39394 10112 22908 5959 38852 11619 12458 8820 43918 15788 10416 16969 13487 4152 5144 45742 56119 13460 9184 14382 45005 12095 14746 86238 763 35338 24356 32676 15975 12427 9498 15424 15193 37339 7182 10882 17069 11157 46020 13439 10984 14453 17228 16182 16110 25970 33530 24934 38775 13690 19438 31611 18578 13710 11586 10169 46696 32255 39606 14087 12275 46514 11353 28157 19519 36695 28721 38342 12242 10662 11922 25307 18035 14078 9398 17174 12682 26962 16170 15021 13969 5412 45171 38534 13359 10581 17939 13146 56111 44872 38551 42475 34824 18746 14179 13154 15815 10925 15671 16269 4663 13393 17259 11476 23610 10748 16314 25667 56226 52556 13545 18309 46796 13031 19733 42438 12322 11540 19948 13843 21571 16766 12472 25514
2021-10-31 20880 21290 6765 13680 17920 10490 19570 16650 6996 33240 17910 19960 16510 25970 8553 32910 52360 43810 10430 28010 20000 18060 24610 26250 51950 35040 174100 15780 30640 23180 11200 12190 47930 9237 52910 14960 90440 19260 14090 44590 11540 21950 35000 69420 13340 41470 14260 14910 15480 17140 31960 28050 33330 13010 26300 15220 17030 52650 16380 24120 13470 18880 35850 5655 26050 24990 12510 18340 51210 47930 13620 11980 11710 18210 58310 6887 24190 1072 12370 9472 11940 57500 7847 83240 50390 7006 15450 51310 19770 17160 17530 10800 12630 37850 7978 27420 51890 34820 12770 49290 12880 21530 50940 16280 8821 14020 15130 11810 18720 16230 11080 11420 13840 43930 17830 21250 11710 16530 6152 16650 44210 19810 10670 16090 14750 18850 12180 12200 16910 41210 19740 12870 8403 11690 32200 17760 97400 15440 10390 16630 12340 36310 15820 10970 35800 22360 10410 24590 12430 34090 13730 21070 34400 11460 16890 11020 15070 39800 18880 15300 13180 15640 43750 15290 14290 41420 19910 14880 9625 16650 6167 15510 27440 16860 14850 15670 41120 22570 68350 29650 43510 20040 132000 61770 9707 36800 14850 14340 18540 85000 35000 22990 7178 6582 96470 17360 40210 6282 12270 11170 27470 7810 8782 15910 24330 17480 25960 11500 37590 9398 9520 5259 24110 16450 16470 50420 18280 51140 22510 25960 16970 8753 13740 23590 14650 13510 56030 22490 6816 25320 33320 9668 14830 34560 43810 16130 53550 20170 9464 42160 555 19790 11910 16380 13620 31690 31220 29650 12280 25570 22150 47470 22280 12560 19520 27150 39570 10160 23030 5998 39010 11680 12500 8834 44170 15860 10470 17050 13550 4176 5186 45880 56320 13530 9236 14500 45110 12160 14840 86580 767 35520 24480 32810 16050 12460 9538 15540 15270 37580 7235 10920 17170 11210 46170 13540 11050 14550 17310 16340 16190 26060 33700 25030 38820 13750 19580 31750 18680 13790 11640 10260 46890 32370 39760 14180 12390 46620 11430 28250 19590 36870 28900 38500 12280 10710 11990 25440 18170 14170 9400 17230 12740 27090 16260 15110 14080 5455 45260 38690 13440 10650 18080 13240 56360 45090 38640 42600 34960 18860 14240 13250 15880 10970 15720 16370 4710 13430 17350 11560 23720 10810 16460 25760 56430 52940 13670 18410 46990 13110 19870 42580 12420 11610 20020 14000 21680 16950 12550 25630
2021-11-01 20970 21390 6788 13790 17980 10540 19660 16770 7013 33440 18050 20030 16590 26180 8643 32960 52670 44090 10490 28140 20180 18130 25000 26410 52200 35120 174600 15840 30720 23310 11300 12300 48070 9287 53130 15030 90910 19360 14190 44700 11610 22090 35200 69770 13430 41590 14390 14970 15550 17180 32060 28350 33390 13060 26380 15280 17100 53190 16470 24310 13510 18990 36150 5704 26160 25180 12630 18460 51750 48250 13720 12020 11860 18360 58500 6924 24360 1072 12460 9546 11950 58090 8002 83600 50630 7064 15560 51450 19880 17270 17630 10930 12750 37910 8068 27500 52070 34990 12820 49550 12950 21630 51090 16350 8913 14120 15190 11840 18860 16360 11140 11480 13900 44140 17910 21460 11760 16690 6182 16800 44340 19870 10720 16150 14800 18970 12260 12240 17010 41500 19830 12910 8527 11730 32360 17860 97670 15560 10500 16720 12440 36420 15950 11080 35870 22510 10460 24650 12510 34190 13770 21260 34520 11560 16890 11070 15150 39980 19020 15390 13300 15760 43880 15390 14430 41630 20080 14920 9666 16900 6235 15660 27510 16920 14900 15790 41270 22690 68760 29750 43630 20130 132600 61970 9760 36890 14900 14390 18650 85260 35130 23150 7221 6620 96760 17380 40340 6315 12450 11240 27550 7905 8884 16010 24430 17570 26050 11520 37750 9458 9650 5304 24350 16560 16570 50490 18440 51240 22680 26090 17040 8819 13870 23670 14740 13650 56240 22610 6862 25740 33540 9722 14920 34800 44080 16210 53680 20340 9515 42320 573 19880 12080 16440 13710 31930 31420 29830 12430 25660 22310 47600 22380 12670 19650 27250 39900 10220 23190 6033 39170 11760 12560 8879 44460 15960 10530 17190 13620 4215 5230 46060 56530 13610 9287 14730 45280 12240 14940 86970 767 35780 24590 32990 16150 12520 9604 15660 15360 37840 7290 11000 17380 11310 46360 13720 11160 14700 17410 16560 16270 26110 33930 25120 38900 13840 19690 31890 18800 13930 11700 10340 47190 32460 40030 14310 12510 46790 11550 28320 19620 37160 29110 38690 12360 10760 12010 25610 18290 14260 9620 17250 12800 27210 16360 15170 14240 5522 45370 38980 13550 10710 18300 13370 56660 45300 38740 42740 35220 19030 14300 13390 15950 11020 15790 16500 4759 13470 17430 11680 23850 10900 16650 25850 56640 53380 13840 18540 47210 13240 20080 42740 12510 11680 20100 14120 21770 17080 12660 25780
2021-11-02 21060 21500 6815 13870 18040 10580 19760 16870 7048 33620 18180 20090 16670 26380 8713 33020 52960 44320 10550 28240 20340 18190 25310 26540 52420 35210 175100 15900 30780 23410 11370 12380 48180 9326 53350 15110 91280 19460 14290 44780 11660 22210 35390 70070 13520 41710 14490 15020 15620 17230 32160 28610 33450 13100 26460 15320 17150 53580 16550 24480 13540 19070 36410 5753 26260 25360 12740 18570 52170 48530 13810 12070 11980 18480 58700 6962 24510 1072 12520 9617 11960 58560 8124 83930 50860 7114 15670 51580 19990 17360 17710 11020 12840 37960 8138 27570 52230 35150 12860 49740 13010 21700 51220 16430 8999 14210 15240 11860 18980 16470 11190 11520 13950 44350 18010 21630 11810 16840 6211 16920 44470 19920 10770 16210 14850 19070 12320 12250 17090 41730 19920 12940 8630 11770 32480 17950 97910 15670 10600 16810 12510 36520 16060 11180 35940 22640 10510 24710 12570 34290 13820 21420 34630 11650 16910 11090 15240 40140 19120 15460 13400 15860 44010 15480 14560 41790 20230 14970 9694 17080 6289 15790 27580 16980 14940 15900 41390 22790 69090 29840 43710 20190 133200 62130 9810 36970 14950 14450 18740 85430 35260 23270 7264 6660 97010 17400 40460 6344 12610 11300 27630 7983 8968 16110 24510 17660 26140 11560 37910 9518 9750 5344 24550 16670 16650 50580 18570 51340 22810 26200 17110 8884 13970 23750 14830 13760 56410 22700 6901 26060 33740 9770 14990 34980 44330 16290 53800 20470 9561 42430 588 19950 12220 16490 13780 32110 31610 29990 12530 25750 22440 47740 22480 12750 19760 27330 40160 10270 23330 6068 39300 11830 12610 8917 44660 16040 10580 17300 13690 4246 5272 46170 56690 13680 9338 14900 45440 12310 15040 87310 767 36000 24680 33150 16220 12570 9658 15770 15440 38080 7343 11070 17530 11390 46520 13860 11240 14830 17500 16760 16360 26180 34130 25200 38970 13920 19810 32000 18870 14040 11760 10400 47450 32560 40240 14420 12640 46960 11650 28410 19660 37400 29310 38840 12410 10810 12050 25760 18390 14350 9790 17290 12860 27320 16450 15240 14380 5578 45460 39200 13640 10780 18480 13480 56860 45460 38830 42860 35420 19180 14360 13490 16020 11060 15840 16610 4805 13520 17520 11790 23970 10980 16770 25920 56820 53800 13990 18650 47400 13340 20260 42880 12610 11740 20170 14210 21870 17190 12760 25910
2021-11-03 21150 21630 6844 13950 18090 10630 19860 16970 7069 33780 18320 20140 16730 26560 8772 33080 53230 44520 10610 28360 20480 18250 25580 26640 52640 35300 175600 15960 30840 23510 11430 12450 48290 9364 53590 15190 91600 19550 14380 44890 11710 22310 35560 70330 13610 41840 14580 15070 15680 17270 32280 28830 33510 13150 26540 15400 17200 53930 16620 24620 13580 19160 36650 5801 26350 25520 12840 18660 52510 48770 13900 12130 12090 18580 58870 7001 24640 1074 12590 9687 11980 58980 8229 84290 51090 7158 15780 51700 20100 17440 17790 11100 12920 38020 8197 27640 52370 35290 12910 49950 13070 21780 51360 16500 9081 14300 15300 11880 19100 16560 11230 11570 13990 44560 18100 21780 11870 16980 6239 17020 44590 19980 10820 16270 14920 19150 12380 12270 17170 41930 20000 12980 8722 11810 32610 18020 98120 15770 10690 16890 12570 36620 16150 11250 36010 22750 10560 24770 12630 34380 13880 21560 34740 11730 16930 11140 15330 40290 19280 15530 13490 15950 44130 15560 14680 41930 20360 15000 9718 17230 6335 15900 27640 17030 14980 16000 41510 22900 69390 29930 43810 20270 133700 62290 9856 37060 14990 14500 18840 85610 35380 23390 7305 6702 97230 17420 40580 6371 12750 11350 27710 8054 9043 16210 24580 17730 26230 11590 38080 9575 9840 5383 24710 16770 16720 50690 18680 51440 22930 26310 17180 8948 14060 23830 14910 13850 56570 22790 6953 26320 33950 9814 15060 35130 44580 16370 53940 20580 9603 42550 600 20010 12350 16540 13840 32270 31800 30130 12620 25840 22560 47860 22580 12830 19870 27410 40380 10320 23460 6103 39450 11900 12670 8957 44870 16110 10640 17400 13770 4274 5313 46300 56840 13750 9387 15040 45600 12370 15130 87660 767 36200 24770 33290 16260 12610 9705 15890 15520 38320 7394 11150 17670 11460 46670 13980 11320 14940 17580 16930 16440 26250 34320 25290 39040 13990 19930 32140 18960 14130 11810 10450 47660 32660 40420 14520 12750 47110 11740 28490 19720 37610 29490 38980 12460 10860 12100 25910 18490 14440 9940 17330 12920 27410 16520 15320 14500 5627 45550 39390 13730 10840 18640 13580 57100 45620 38920 42990 35590 19310 14420 13590 16080 11110 15900 16720 4851 13550 17580 11880 24080 11050 16890 25990 57010 54190 14130 18750 47580 13430 20410 43000 12690 11810 20240 14300 21970 17290 12840 26030
2021-11-04 21230 21750 6875 14020 18140 10680 19960 17060 7077 33940 18440 20200 16800 26730 8830 33140 53500 44710 10660 28490 20620 18300 25840 26740 52840 35390 176000 16010 30900 23600 11490 12520 48400 9401 53820 15260 91910 19640 14460 45000 11760 22420 35720 70680 13700 41960 14660 15120 15740 17310 32390 29050 33570 13200 26610 15450 17250 54260 16690 24760 13620 19250 36890 5849 26440 25670 12930 18750 52830 49010 13990 12210 12200 18670 59050 7040 24780 1081 12660 9758 11990 59370 8330 84590 51280 7202 15880 51830 20210 17510 17870 11180 13000 38080 8254 27710 52510 35400 12950 50140 13120 21860 51490 16580 9164 14370 15350 11880 19210 16660 11270 11610 14030 44760 18190 21930 11920 17110 6266 17120 44710 20040 10860 16340 14980 19240 12440 12300 17250 42120 20090 13020 8811 11860 32730 18090 98330 15870 10790 16960 12630 36710 16240 11320 36080 22860 10620 24840 12690 34470 13940 21700 34860 11810 16950 11180 15420 40440 19400 15600 13570 16040 44260 15640 14810 42080 20460 15040 9737 17380 6380 16010 27710 17080 15020 16090 41620 23000 69670 30010 43890 20340 134100 62430 9902 37140 15040 14550 18940 85810 35500 23520 7346 6744 97460 17430 40710 6398 12890 11400 27790 8122 9117 16320 24660 17800 26310 11630 38240 9632 9930 5421 24880 16870 16790 50810 18780 51530 23040 26410 17250 9011 14150 23900 15000 13950 56740 22860 6998 26570 34150 9858 15120 35300 44820 16440 54070 20690 9644 42620 612 20070 12480 16590 13900 32430 31960 30270 12720 25930 22670 47990 22670 12890 19970 27480 40590 10370 23580 6138 39600 11960 12710 8988 45070 16190 10690 17490 13830 4302 5354 46420 56980 13830 9437 15170 45760 12440 15220 87960 767 36390 24860 33430 16330 12650 9751 16000 15590 38550 7446 11210 17790 11520 46810 14090 11390 15050 17660 17100 16500 26330 34500 25390 39110 14050 20060 32270 19060 14230 11870 10500 47880 32770 40600 14620 12870 47270 11820 28580 19780 37810 29670 39130 12510 10910 12160 26040 18560 14530 10070 17380 12980 27480 16610 15400 14620 5674 45640 39570 13820 10900 18800 13680 57340 45770 39010 43120 35750 19430 14470 13670 16150 11150 15950 16820 4896 13580 17640 11970 24190 11110 17010 26050 57160 54570 14260 18860 47760 13510 20560 43140 12780 11880 20310 14370 22070 17370 12930 26160
2021-11-05 21320 21890 6906 14080 18190 10730 20060 17140 7098 34100 18570 20250 16870 26900 8881 33210 53730 44890 10720 28590 20750 18360 26070 26830 53000 35490 176400 16070 30970 23680 11540 12580 48510 9423 54020 15340 92200 19720 14540 45110 11800 22520 35880 70930 13780 42080 14740 15170 15800 17340 32500 29260 33600 13250 26680 15490 17320 54540 16750 24890 13660 19320 37130 5897 26510 25820 13030 18830 53120 49240 14080 12270 12300 18760 59220 7079 24900 1090 12720 9828 12000 59740 8421 84900 51450 7242 15990 51950 20320 17570 17940 11240 13070 38150 8306 27770 52640 35520 12990 50290 13180 21930 51630 16650 9246 14440 15400 11910 19310 16740 11310 11650 14060 44960 18270 22070 11960 17240 6293 17210 44830 20100 10910 16400 15050 19320 12500 12310 17330 42290 20160 13060 8894 11900 32840 18160 98500 15980 10880 17040 12690 36800 16320 11380 36150 22970 10680 24900 12740 34550 13990 21830 34970 11880 16980 11220 15500 40590 19500 15670 13640 16120 44380 15710 14920 42210 20540 15070 9769 17500 6421 16110 27780 17130 15050 16190 41760 23100 69930 30090 43970 20410 134600 62580 9948 37210 15090 14600 19030 85970 35620 23620 7387 6787 97670 17450 40830 6424 13020 11450 27870 8186 9185 16430 24730 17850 26400 11680 38410 9689 10010 5458 25020 16970 16860 50930 18870 51620 23140 26510 17300 9075 14230 23980 15080 14030 56920 22940 7044 26800 34360 9900 15170 35440 45040 16520 54210 20790 9685 42690 622 20130 12610 16630 13960 32550 32110 30400 12780 26020 22770 48110 22770 12960 20070 27540 40790 10420 23710 6173 39700 12020 12750 9029 45250 16260 10740 17580 13890 4327 5395 46510 57120 13900 9486 15280 45900 12500 15310 88250 769 36570 24940 33560 16360 12700 9792 16110 15660 38790 7497 11280 17910 11570 46940 14200 11450 15150 17740 17260 16570 26420 34680 25480 39190 14110 20200 32410 19140 14310 11920 10540 48070 32870 40760 14710 12980 47440 11900 28670 19840 37990 29840 39240 12550 10950 12210 26180 18640 14620 10200 17430 13040 27560 16670 15490 14730 5718 45730 39730 13900 10970 18950 13770 57530 45910 39100 43230 35900 19550 14530 13750 16210 11190 16000 16920 4942 13620 17690 12050 24290 11180 17120 26100 57310 54950 14390 18960 47900 13590 20700 43260 12870 11940 20380 14430 22180 17440 13000 26270
2021-11-06 21390 22020 6938 14140 18240 10780 20160 17230 7129 34250 18680 20310 16930 27070 8931 33270 53870 45070 10770 28670 20880 18410 26300 26900 53160 35590 176700 16120 31030 23760 11600 12640 48600 9447 54240 15420 92470 19810 14620 45170 11840 22620 36040 71180 13870 42200 14810 15220 15860 17370 32560 29460 33670 13300 26750 15530 17360 54730 16810 24980 13690 19400 37360 5946 26580 25970 13120 18920 53400 49460 14170 12340 12400 18850 59340 7118 25030 1099 12750 9898 12020 60100 8510 85120 51590 7282 16090 52070 20430 17620 18020 11310 13140 38210 8356 27840 52780 35820 13030 50430 13240 21980 51730 16700 9329 14520 15450 11960 19420 16830 11340 11690 14080 45160 18340 22200 11990 17370 6321 17300 44950 20150 10960 16460 15120 19400 12570 12330 17410 42440 20240 13080 8975 11950 32960 18220 98660 16080 10970 17110 12740 36890 16400 11440 36220 23070 10730 24970 12800 34640 14050 21960 35080 11960 17010 11250 15590 40730 19590 15730 13720 16230 44510 15790 15040 42310 20620 15100 9793 17630 6460 16210 27850 17170 15080 16240 41880 23200 70190 30170 44020 20460 134900 62700 9993 37270 15130 14660 19130 86110 35740 23720 7429 6830 97850 17470 40950 6450 13140 11490 27950 8249 9252 16540 24800 17920 26480 11710 38580 9745 10090 5494 25170 17080 16930 51060 18960 51720 23250 26600 17340 9139 14300 24060 15160 14120 57050 23010 7086 27010 34520 9942 15220 35560 45200 16590 54310 20880 9724 42750 632 20180 12730 16680 14010 32660 32230 30520 12830 26100 22870 48240 22860 13020 20170 27590 40980 10470 23830 6208 39800 12090 12790 9061 45450 16330 10790 17660 13940 4352 5436 46600 57220 13970 9534 15390 46010 12560 15400 88470 772 36750 25020 33700 16460 12730 9833 16220 15740 39020 7548 11320 18020 11620 47060 14300 11510 15250 17820 17420 16640 26500 34850 25570 39240 14180 20330 32500 19210 14400 11970 10580 48260 32980 40920 14800 13090 47560 11980 28760 19900 38170 30010 39330 12600 11000 12280 26310 18700 14700 10320 17480 13090 27620 16730 15580 14840 5761 45810 39890 13980 11030 19100 13860 57690 46030 39190 43300 36040 19670 14580 13820 16280 11220 16040 17030 4987 13650 17750 12130 24400 11240 17210 26130 57450 55320 14510 19050 48010 13660 20840 43340 12950 12010 20450 14500 22280 17500 13080 26390

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2021-10-31 to 2021-11-06

DateAberdeen CityAberdeenshireAdurAllerdaleAmber ValleyAngusAntrim and NewtownabbeyArds and North DownArgyll and ButeArmagh City and Banbridge and CraigavonArunAshfieldAshfordAylesbury ValeBaberghBarking and DagenhamBarnetBarnsleyBarrow-in-FurnessBasildonBasingstoke and DeaneBassetlawBath and North East SomersetBedfordBelfastBexleyBirminghamBlabyBlackburn with DarwenBlackpoolBlaenau GwentBolsoverBoltonBostonBournemouth Christchurch and PooleBracknell ForestBradfordBraintreeBrecklandBrentBrentwoodBridgendBrighton and HoveBristolBroadlandBromleyBromsgroveBroxbourneBroxtoweBurnleyBuryCaerphillyCalderdaleCambridgeCamdenCannock ChaseCanterburyCardiffCarlisleCarmarthenshireCastle PointCauseway Coast and GlensCentral BedfordshireCeredigionCharnwoodChelmsfordCheltenhamCherwellCheshire EastCheshire West and ChesterChesterfieldChichesterChilternChorleyCity of EdinburghClackmannanshireColchesterComhairle nan Eilean SiarConwyCopelandCorbyCornwall and Isles of ScillyCotswoldCounty DurhamCoventryCravenCrawleyCroydonDacorumDarlingtonDartfordDaventryDenbighshireDerbyDerbyshire DalesDerry City and StrabaneDoncasterDorsetDoverDudleyDumfries and GallowayDundee CityEalingEast AyrshireEast CambridgeshireEast DevonEast DunbartonshireEast HampshireEast HertfordshireEast LindseyEast LothianEast NorthamptonshireEast RenfrewshireEast Riding of YorkshireEast StaffordshireEast SuffolkEastbourneEastleighEdenElmbridgeEnfieldEpping ForestEpsom and EwellErewashExeterFalkirkFarehamFenlandFermanagh and OmaghFifeFlintshireFolkestone and HytheForest of DeanFyldeGatesheadGedlingGlasgow CityGloucesterGosportGraveshamGreat YarmouthGreenwichGuildfordGwyneddHackneyHaltonHambletonHammersmith and FulhamHarboroughHaringeyHarlowHarrogateHarrowHartHartlepoolHastingsHavantHaveringHerefordshireHertsmereHigh PeakHighlandHillingdonHinckley and BosworthHorshamHounslowHuntingdonshireHyndburnInverclydeIpswichIsle of AngleseyIsle of WightIslingtonKensington and ChelseaKetteringKing's Lynn and West NorfolkKingston upon HullKingston upon ThamesKirkleesKnowsleyLambethLancasterLeedsLeicesterLewesLewishamLichfieldLincolnLisburn and CastlereaghLiverpoolLutonMaidstoneMaldonMalvern HillsManchesterMansfieldMedwayMeltonMendipMerthyr TydfilMertonMid DevonMid SuffolkMid SussexMid UlsterMid and East AntrimMiddlesbroughMidlothianMilton KeynesMole ValleyMonmouthshireMorayNeath Port TalbotNew ForestNewark and SherwoodNewcastle upon TyneNewcastle-under-LymeNewhamNewportNewry and Mourne and DownNorth AyrshireNorth DevonNorth East DerbyshireNorth East LincolnshireNorth HertfordshireNorth KestevenNorth LanarkshireNorth LincolnshireNorth NorfolkNorth SomersetNorth TynesideNorth WarwickshireNorth West LeicestershireNorthamptonNorthumberlandNorwichNottinghamNuneaton and BedworthOadby and WigstonOldhamOrkney IslandsOxfordPembrokeshirePendlePerth and KinrossPeterboroughPlymouthPortsmouthPowysPrestonReadingRedbridgeRedcar and ClevelandRedditchReigate and BansteadRenfrewshireRhondda Cynon TafRibble ValleyRichmond upon ThamesRichmondshireRochdaleRochfordRossendaleRotherRotherhamRugbyRunnymedeRushcliffeRushmoorRutlandRyedaleSalfordSandwellScarboroughScottish BordersSedgemoorSeftonSelbySevenoaksSheffieldShetland IslandsShropshireSloughSolihullSomerset West and TauntonSouth AyrshireSouth BucksSouth CambridgeshireSouth DerbyshireSouth GloucestershireSouth HamsSouth HollandSouth KestevenSouth LakelandSouth LanarkshireSouth NorfolkSouth NorthamptonshireSouth OxfordshireSouth RibbleSouth SomersetSouth StaffordshireSouth TynesideSouthamptonSouthend-on-SeaSouthwarkSpelthorneSt AlbansSt. HelensStaffordStaffordshire MoorlandsStevenageStirlingStockportStockton-on-TeesStoke-on-TrentStratford-on-AvonStroudSunderlandSurrey HeathSuttonSwaleSwanseaSwindonTamesideTamworthTandridgeTeignbridgeTelford and WrekinTendringTest ValleyTewkesburyThanetThree RiversThurrockTonbridge and MallingTorbayTorfaenTorridgeTower HamletsTraffordTunbridge WellsUttlesfordVale of GlamorganVale of White HorseWakefieldWalsallWaltham ForestWandsworthWarringtonWarwickWatfordWaverleyWealdenWellingboroughWelwyn HatfieldWest BerkshireWest DevonWest DunbartonshireWest LancashireWest LindseyWest LothianWest OxfordshireWest SuffolkWestminsterWiganWiltshireWinchesterWindsor and MaidenheadWirralWokingWokinghamWolverhamptonWorcesterWorthingWrexhamWychavonWycombeWyreWyre ForestYork
2021-10-30 20844 21153 6731 13614 17867 10442 19462 16547 6996 33086 17780 19905 16404 25809 8504 32839 51959 43635 10375 27885 19871 18004 24391 26128 51752 34934 173607 15720 30595 23102 11151 12132 47818 9188 52736 14875 90169 19171 14007 44513 11496 21856 34840 69127 13253 41342 14186 14862 15423 17120 31888 27866 33273 12958 26225 15162 16981 52094 16317 23892 13433 18766 35616 5605 25935 24837 12414 18260 50942 47707 13530 11976 11613 18128 58140 6846 24062 1061 12298 9400 11922 57142 7761 82949 50128 6965 15338 51181 19658 17031 17451 10738 12565 37779 7929 27352 51757 34803 12732 49033 12874 21461 50785 16218 8739 13933 15079 11813 18616 16141 11021 11380 13775 43727 17756 21118 11647 16399 6123 16556 44088 19760 10620 16022 14677 18769 12110 12164 16835 40959 19662 12847 8322 11643 32122 17692 97177 15338 10298 16551 12288 36220 15740 10909 35724 22258 10346 24522 12377 34000 13663 20941 34288 11383 16859 11001 14975 39654 18803 15230 13110 15545 43619 15220 14167 41182 19722 14836 9601 16540 6127 15408 27370 16812 14818 15572 41036 22467 68097 29570 43452 19958 131355 61662 9659 36711 14800 14287 18447 84763 34881 22824 7134 6537 96208 17341 40083 6256 12148 11120 27386 7749 8715 15796 24261 17397 25874 11493 37421 9340 9440 5221 23980 16348 16401 50299 18192 51045 22415 25860 16915 8688 13662 23509 14568 13430 55854 22421 6793 25117 33171 9625 14779 34307 43525 16054 53471 20079 9422 42036 552 19739 11785 16334 13569 31439 31049 29523 12127 25484 22052 47338 22183 12499 19415 27044 39394 10112 22908 5959 38852 11619 12458 8820 43918 15788 10416 16969 13487 4152 5144 45742 56119 13460 9184 14382 45005 12095 14746 86238 763 35338 24356 32676 15975 12427 9498 15424 15193 37339 7182 10882 17069 11157 46020 13439 10984 14453 17228 16182 16110 25970 33530 24934 38775 13690 19438 31611 18578 13710 11586 10169 46696 32255 39606 14087 12275 46514 11353 28157 19519 36695 28721 38342 12242 10662 11922 25307 18035 14078 9398 17174 12682 26962 16170 15021 13969 5412 45171 38534 13359 10581 17939 13146 56111 44872 38551 42475 34824 18746 14179 13154 15815 10925 15671 16269 4663 13393 17259 11476 23610 10748 16314 25667 56226 52556 13545 18309 46796 13031 19733 42438 12322 11540 19948 13843 21571 16766 12472 25514
2021-10-31 20930 21300 6763 13670 17930 10490 19560 16650 7026 33230 17910 19970 16480 25960 8560 32910 52160 43830 10430 28000 19990 18060 24600 26230 51890 35020 174000 15770 30650 23180 11230 12180 47930 9217 53000 14950 90460 19250 14080 44600 11530 21940 34980 69370 13350 41460 14250 14910 15480 17150 31990 28050 33380 13010 26290 15210 17030 52400 16380 24020 13490 18850 35870 5655 26020 24980 12470 18340 51190 47920 13620 12040 11710 18200 58320 6888 24190 1072 12340 9470 11960 57480 7858 83240 50320 7004 15420 51310 19770 17110 17540 10800 12620 37900 7977 27420 51920 35090 12770 49220 12920 21520 50910 16270 8818 14030 15130 11860 18720 16240 11070 11420 13810 43920 17840 21260 11690 16530 6153 16650 44200 19820 10660 16080 14740 18840 12200 12210 16910 41150 19740 12880 8409 11700 32250 17750 97340 15450 10380 16620 12340 36300 15810 10970 35790 22360 10400 24590 12430 34070 13720 21080 34370 11470 16920 11040 15050 39760 18900 15290 13170 15650 43740 15300 14280 41310 19840 14870 9627 16640 6158 15490 27430 16850 14860 15660 41160 22560 68330 29650 43530 20020 131800 61810 9708 36790 14850 14340 18530 84940 34990 22940 7171 6582 96400 17380 40200 6283 12270 11150 27460 7808 8783 15920 24330 17470 25950 11530 37580 9398 9510 5258 24090 16480 16460 50460 18270 51130 22550 25960 16960 8749 13750 23580 14650 13520 56040 22500 6841 25380 33390 9665 14830 34460 43740 16140 53580 20160 9461 42120 564 19790 11920 16370 13630 31600 31220 29660 12210 25570 22140 47460 22270 12560 19520 27100 39540 10170 23000 5989 38960 11680 12500 8849 44120 15860 10460 17050 13550 4174 5184 45830 56240 13520 9232 14480 45150 12150 14840 86540 766 35520 24450 32800 16080 12470 9544 15540 15260 37620 7232 10940 17170 11210 46160 13540 11050 14540 17300 16330 16170 26060 33690 25030 38840 13740 19580 31730 18670 13780 11640 10210 46900 32360 39730 14170 12390 46680 11430 28300 19600 36830 28930 38460 12280 10710 12010 25440 18130 14180 9560 17220 12740 27050 16250 15110 14060 5451 45240 38640 13430 10640 18080 13230 56280 45020 38630 42580 34970 18850 14240 13260 15910 10960 15720 16380 4709 13430 17320 11570 23720 10810 16430 25720 56380 52990 13630 18400 46950 13100 19860 42550 12380 11610 20010 13930 21680 16860 12550 25630
2021-11-01 21040 21470 6796 13750 18000 10550 19660 16750 7071 33390 18060 20030 16560 26160 8627 32980 52400 44070 10480 28140 20150 18130 24910 26370 52100 35110 174500 15830 30730 23280 11340 12260 48060 9259 53310 15040 90800 19340 14170 44720 11590 22060 35150 69710 13450 41600 14330 14960 15550 17200 32100 28300 33520 13060 26370 15280 17100 52840 16450 24170 13550 18950 36140 5711 26110 25140 12650 18420 51560 48180 13720 12130 11830 18290 58520 6932 24340 1079 12410 9550 12000 57920 7991 83590 50550 7053 15510 51440 19890 17210 17650 10890 12710 38030 8033 27480 52110 35440 12810 49460 12990 21600 51070 16340 8896 14150 15190 11950 18840 16350 11120 11480 13850 44110 17910 21440 11740 16680 6181 16750 44340 19890 10710 16160 14810 18930 12280 12300 16990 41420 19820 12920 8526 11770 32420 17820 97590 15580 10480 16690 12400 36390 15910 11070 35870 22470 10460 24650 12490 34160 13790 21240 34470 11560 16970 11090 15140 39890 19040 15370 13270 15770 43880 15380 14430 41490 19990 14910 9668 16780 6195 15610 27510 16910 14910 15780 41270 22680 68640 29740 43660 20090 132400 62030 9758 36870 14900 14400 18630 85180 35110 23090 7213 6633 96670 17430 40340 6312 12440 11210 27550 7891 8873 16030 24400 17540 26050 11560 37760 9465 9610 5299 24250 16630 16550 50620 18380 51240 22750 26060 17030 8815 13850 23670 14740 13630 56260 22590 6900 25710 33630 9713 14890 34650 44010 16250 53720 20270 9506 42250 579 19860 12080 16420 13700 31800 31410 29810 12330 25660 22270 47570 22380 12630 19630 27190 39770 10220 23160 6016 39120 11750 12560 8893 44390 15940 10520 17150 13620 4203 5230 45990 56400 13610 9285 14600 45320 12220 14940 86910 767 35730 24550 32950 16260 12520 9607 15650 15340 37910 7290 11000 17300 11270 46350 13680 11130 14670 17390 16540 16250 26140 33890 25130 38920 13810 19720 31870 18770 13880 11700 10280 47130 32480 39910 14270 12530 46850 11540 28450 19670 37030 29250 38630 12320 10770 12100 25600 18230 14300 9750 17260 12800 27160 16340 15190 14190 5499 45320 38820 13530 10710 18260 13330 56530 45220 38730 42710 35180 18990 14300 13370 16000 11010 15770 16540 4755 13480 17390 11680 23840 10880 16600 25800 56550 53550 13770 18510 47160 13180 20030 42680 12460 11680 20090 14030 21810 16970 12630 25770
2021-11-02 21130 21640 6827 13810 18070 10600 19770 16840 7126 33540 18210 20100 16640 26340 8686 33050 52620 44280 10530 28250 20290 18190 25180 26490 52310 35200 175000 15880 30790 23370 11430 12330 48170 9295 53590 15120 91110 19420 14260 44820 11640 22170 35310 69950 13540 41730 14400 15010 15610 17240 32210 28540 33640 13120 26440 15340 17160 53200 16510 24310 13610 19040 36400 5764 26190 25280 12790 18480 51850 48410 13810 12220 11940 18380 58730 6975 24480 1087 12480 9625 12040 58310 8106 83910 50770 7098 15590 51570 20010 17300 17750 10950 12780 38150 8082 27550 52280 35770 12860 49670 13050 21670 51210 16420 8973 14250 15250 12030 18950 16460 11170 11530 13890 44290 18000 21610 11790 16820 6209 16850 44460 19950 10760 16230 14870 19020 12360 12350 17070 41650 19900 12960 8629 11840 32570 17880 97820 15710 10580 16760 12460 36480 15990 11160 35940 22580 10510 24720 12540 34240 13850 21390 34560 11640 17020 11120 15230 40000 19150 15440 13350 15870 44010 15470 14550 41640 20120 14940 9698 16910 6229 15720 27580 16960 14970 15890 41380 22790 68910 29830 43750 20140 132900 62220 9807 36960 14950 14460 18720 85360 35220 23220 7252 6680 96910 17480 40480 6340 12590 11260 27630 7965 8955 16140 24470 17610 26140 11590 37940 9529 9690 5338 24400 16770 16610 50790 18470 51330 22930 26150 17090 8880 13940 23750 14830 13730 56440 22670 6946 25980 33850 9757 14940 34820 44270 16350 53840 20360 9549 42350 593 19910 12230 16470 13760 31960 31590 29950 12420 25750 22390 47690 22480 12700 19730 27270 39980 10270 23280 6044 39240 11820 12600 8931 44580 16010 10580 17250 13690 4229 5273 46090 56530 13690 9334 14710 45480 12280 15040 87260 769 35920 24640 33090 16410 12570 9661 15760 15410 38190 7343 11060 17420 11330 46500 13800 11190 14790 17470 16720 16320 26230 34080 25230 38980 13870 19860 31990 18850 13980 11750 10340 47340 32600 40040 14370 12670 47020 11620 28590 19740 37210 29530 38770 12360 10820 12190 25760 18330 14410 9910 17300 12870 27260 16430 15280 14310 5545 45390 38950 13620 10770 18410 13420 56690 45380 38830 42830 35350 19120 14360 13460 16080 11060 15820 16680 4799 13520 17450 11780 23960 10940 16730 25870 56690 54050 13890 18620 47340 13260 20170 42780 12520 11750 20160 14110 21930 17070 12710 25900
2021-11-03 21240 21790 6858 13880 18130 10650 19870 16940 7171 33680 18350 20150 16700 26520 8742 33120 52820 44470 10570 28380 20430 18250 25440 26600 52510 35280 175500 15940 30850 23460 11510 12390 48280 9331 53880 15200 91400 19500 14340 44930 11680 22280 35460 70220 13640 41860 14470 15070 15670 17280 32330 28760 33760 13170 26500 15410 17210 53560 16560 24430 13660 19120 36660 5815 26270 25410 12910 18550 52140 48640 13900 12310 12050 18460 58920 7020 24610 1096 12540 9698 12080 58680 8214 84280 50990 7141 15680 51690 20120 17380 17840 11010 12850 38270 8129 27610 52450 36090 12900 49880 13120 21750 51350 16490 9048 14350 15300 12090 19050 16550 11220 11570 13930 44470 18090 21760 11830 16960 6236 16940 44590 20020 10800 16290 14940 19100 12430 12400 17140 41850 19980 13000 8728 11900 32720 17940 98030 15830 10670 16830 12510 36560 16070 11230 36020 22670 10570 24790 12600 34320 13910 21520 34650 11730 17080 11170 15320 40100 19300 15510 13440 15960 44150 15550 14680 41780 20250 14970 9725 17030 6261 15830 27650 17000 15010 16000 41480 22890 69180 29920 43840 20200 133400 62390 9856 37040 14990 14510 18810 85550 35330 23350 7290 6726 97130 17530 40610 6368 12730 11300 27710 8038 9033 16250 24540 17660 26230 11620 38120 9591 9780 5379 24540 16910 16670 50950 18560 51430 23100 26240 17160 8945 14020 23820 14910 13820 56610 22750 7002 26240 34070 9800 14990 34970 44510 16440 53980 20450 9591 42450 607 19970 12370 16500 13820 32100 31780 30080 12520 25840 22500 47800 22570 12760 19830 27350 40170 10330 23400 6072 39380 11880 12650 8967 44800 16080 10640 17330 13760 4254 5316 46200 56630 13760 9384 14810 45650 12340 15140 87600 772 36100 24720 33230 16530 12610 9712 15880 15480 38460 7397 11120 17530 11380 46660 13900 11260 14900 17550 16880 16390 26320 34260 25320 39050 13930 20000 32120 18930 14070 11810 10380 47540 32720 40170 14470 12790 47190 11710 28720 19800 37390 29780 38920 12400 10870 12270 25910 18420 14520 10060 17350 12930 27350 16510 15370 14420 5590 45460 39090 13700 10840 18570 13510 56880 45540 38920 42950 35520 19240 14420 13550 16170 11100 15880 16810 4842 13560 17510 11870 24070 11010 16840 25940 56840 54520 14010 18720 47530 13320 20310 42880 12590 11820 20220 14190 22050 17160 12780 26030
2021-11-04 21310 21900 6891 13950 18190 10710 19980 17030 7206 33820 18490 20190 16780 26710 8795 33190 53030 44680 10620 28500 20580 18310 25720 26710 52710 35370 175900 16000 30920 23540 11600 12450 48400 9367 54180 15280 91680 19580 14420 45040 11720 22380 35620 70540 13730 41990 14540 15120 15730 17320 32440 28980 33890 13220 26570 15460 17270 53900 16620 24560 13720 19210 36900 5867 26350 25530 13080 18610 52450 48880 13990 12400 12150 18540 59090 7064 24750 1106 12600 9770 12120 59070 8317 84610 51200 7184 15770 51820 20240 17460 17930 11090 12930 38390 8174 27670 52620 36410 12940 50090 13180 21820 51490 16570 9122 14450 15360 12160 19150 16650 11260 11620 13970 44650 18180 21920 11880 17090 6264 17030 44710 20080 10850 16360 15010 19190 12500 12490 17210 42060 20060 13030 8844 11970 32870 17990 98260 15950 10760 16900 12560 36640 16140 11310 36090 22760 10630 24860 12650 34390 13980 21660 34730 11810 17130 11210 15410 40220 19440 15580 13520 16060 44280 15620 14800 41940 20370 15010 9749 17160 6295 15930 27730 17040 15070 16100 41590 23000 69430 30000 43940 20250 133900 62520 9906 37130 15040 14570 18900 85750 35440 23490 7328 6771 97370 17570 40750 6395 12870 11350 27800 8113 9108 16370 24600 17720 26320 11660 38300 9654 9860 5417 24670 17060 16730 51120 18660 51520 23260 26330 17230 9010 14100 23900 14990 13910 56790 22830 7052 26480 34290 9842 15030 35140 44760 16540 54120 20550 9632 42530 621 20030 12510 16540 13880 32270 31960 30210 12620 25920 22600 47900 22670 12820 19940 27430 40350 10380 23520 6101 39540 11940 12700 8999 45030 16150 10690 17420 13830 4277 5358 46330 56740 13830 9436 14880 45810 12400 15230 87930 774 36280 24810 33360 16660 12660 9769 15990 15550 38730 7455 11170 17650 11430 46820 14030 11320 15000 17630 17070 16460 26410 34450 25420 39120 13980 20150 32270 19030 14160 11860 10430 47750 32830 40340 14560 12900 47350 11800 28880 19870 37560 30030 39070 12450 10920 12350 26050 18500 14630 10210 17390 12990 27450 16600 15460 14530 5635 45540 39250 13790 10900 18730 13600 57100 45710 39010 43070 35690 19350 14480 13640 16260 11140 15930 16940 4886 13600 17560 11960 24180 11070 16970 26010 56960 54980 14140 18820 47710 13380 20450 42990 12670 11890 20300 14270 22170 17250 12850 26160
2021-11-05 21380 22020 6925 14010 18240 10760 20090 17120 7235 33960 18630 20240 16860 26890 8847 33260 53250 44860 10660 28610 20710 18370 25980 26820 52880 35450 176300 16060 30990 23630 11670 12500 48510 9399 54440 15360 91960 19650 14510 45140 11770 22480 35780 70910 13820 42120 14600 15170 15790 17350 32540 29200 34010 13270 26630 15520 17340 54300 16670 24690 13770 19300 37150 5918 26420 25650 13250 18670 52740 49120 14090 12490 12250 18610 59260 7107 24880 1117 12660 9843 12160 59430 8418 84930 51410 7226 15860 51940 20350 17550 18020 11150 13000 38510 8218 27730 52750 36740 12980 50290 13230 21900 51640 16650 9197 14550 15410 12250 19260 16740 11310 11670 14010 44830 18260 22060 11930 17220 6291 17120 44830 20150 10900 16420 15090 19280 12580 12550 17290 42270 20150 13070 8937 12030 33010 18040 98450 16070 10850 16960 12610 36720 16220 11380 36170 22850 10690 24920 12700 34470 14040 21810 34820 11880 17190 11240 15490 40330 19540 15640 13600 16160 44420 15700 14930 42090 20490 15040 9782 17260 6324 16030 27800 17090 15120 16210 41690 23100 69670 30090 44020 20300 134300 62660 9952 37210 15090 14630 18980 85940 35550 23620 7370 6817 97620 17620 40890 6423 13000 11390 27880 8179 9183 16480 24670 17780 26400 11700 38480 9716 9940 5450 24800 17190 16780 51290 18750 51620 23410 26420 17280 9075 14180 23970 15070 14000 56980 22900 7098 26710 34490 9884 15080 35310 45000 16630 54240 20630 9674 42620 635 20080 12650 16570 13940 32400 32140 30350 12700 26010 22700 48010 22770 12880 20040 27500 40550 10430 23640 6130 39660 12000 12750 9036 45260 16220 10740 17490 13900 4299 5405 46440 56840 13900 9488 14970 45950 12460 15320 88250 777 36470 24890 33500 16790 12710 9817 16100 15620 38990 7509 11230 17750 11480 46960 14140 11390 15130 17710 17240 16520 26500 34640 25520 39180 14040 20290 32400 19120 14260 11910 10490 47940 32940 40460 14650 13090 47510 11890 29010 19930 37720 30340 39200 12480 10970 12440 26200 18590 14740 10350 17430 13050 27540 16680 15540 14630 5673 45600 39370 13870 10960 18880 13690 57270 45870 39100 43190 35860 19470 14540 13720 16350 11190 15980 17110 4929 13640 17610 12050 24300 11130 17090 26070 57070 55430 14260 18920 47870 13450 20600 43090 12740 11960 20360 14350 22290 17340 12930 26290
2021-11-06 21450 22130 6955 14070 18290 10810 20200 17210 7270 34090 18770 20270 16930 27070 8898 33330 53420 45040 10710 28710 20840 18430 26220 26920 53040 35530 176700 16110 31050 23710 11750 12560 48610 9433 54690 15440 92240 19720 14580 45230 11810 22590 35920 71200 13910 42250 14650 15220 15850 17370 32620 29420 34110 13320 26690 15570 17400 54560 16710 24790 13820 19390 37390 5968 26490 25790 13400 18720 52980 49340 14180 12570 12350 18680 59410 7149 25000 1128 12720 9916 12190 59760 8518 85160 51590 7269 15930 52070 20460 17610 18110 11200 13060 38620 8262 27790 52890 37050 13020 50480 13280 21960 51770 16700 9272 14630 15460 12330 19350 16840 11360 11710 14050 45010 18340 22200 11960 17360 6319 17200 44950 20210 10940 16470 15160 19350 12650 12610 17360 42480 20230 13100 9027 12090 33150 18100 98630 16190 10950 17030 12660 36800 16280 11450 36250 22930 10750 24990 12750 34540 14100 21930 34910 11960 17240 11280 15570 40430 19630 15710 13670 16260 44550 15780 15050 42230 20600 15070 9809 17360 6352 16130 27880 17130 15170 16300 41790 23210 69930 30170 44080 20340 134800 62790 9997 37290 15140 14680 19070 86110 35650 23750 7406 6858 97820 17660 41010 6450 13140 11430 27960 8245 9258 16600 24740 17830 26480 11730 38660 9778 10010 5486 24940 17320 16830 51450 18830 51700 23570 26500 17340 9141 14260 24030 15140 14090 57140 22980 7135 26940 34660 9926 15120 35470 45220 16720 54360 20710 9716 42700 649 20130 12790 16610 14000 32510 32310 30470 12780 26100 22810 48120 22860 12940 20140 27570 40740 10480 23740 6159 39770 12060 12790 9064 45450 16290 10800 17580 13960 4323 5446 46540 56920 13970 9535 15050 46080 12520 15420 88550 780 36640 24970 33640 16920 12750 9864 16200 15690 39250 7559 11290 17850 11520 47090 14250 11450 15230 17790 17400 16570 26590 34810 25630 39240 14090 20440 32510 19190 14340 11970 10540 48130 33040 40550 14740 13210 47650 11970 29130 19990 37880 30580 39320 12510 11030 12520 26340 18670 14850 10490 17470 13110 27610 16760 15610 14740 5710 45650 39460 13960 11020 19020 13780 57390 46030 39190 43300 36000 19590 14590 13800 16440 11230 16030 17260 4972 13670 17650 12140 24400 11190 17210 26130 57160 55870 14380 19010 48020 13510 20730 43170 12800 12020 20420 14410 22400 17430 13000 26420

Data issues

    There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change. To handle this, we remove the last two observations. This then reflect the reporting delay of the data, but also implies that we cannot precisely distinguish between a count of zero cases and a delayed count.
    The forecasts from 2020-10-11 use a four day delay (so ignoring the last four days of reported cases), to reflect delays in reporting data in many areas. Otherwise we use a two day delay.

    The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.