COVID-19 short-term forecasts England

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in England 2020-10-25

	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
Peak date (mm-dd)	--	--	--	--	10-13	04-16	--	--	--	--	10-14	10-11	10-12	03-27	10-14	--	--	10-13	--	10-14	10-13	10-12	--	--	10-12	10-13	--	10-12	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	10-12	10-01	--	--	10-13	10-11	--	10-12	--	10-12	--	--	10-14	04-03	10-13	--	10-14	--	--	10-13	10-13	10-14	--	10-14	--	10-08	10-11	10-11	10-12	10-14	10-13	--	--	10-13	10-14	--	10-12	10-13	--	05-13	--	10-14	10-09	--	04-17	10-04	10-13	--	--	--	--	04-22	10-13	10-11	--	--	10-13	10-14	10-11	09-22	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-29	--	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	10-14	--	10-14	05-03	--	10-14	04-21	10-14	10-14	05-03	04-10	--	--	10-12	10-02	--	10-11	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	09-28	--	10-14	--	--	09-24	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	--	10-12	09-27	09-25	--	--	10-05	10-14	--	--	10-14	--	05-04	--	--	--	--	10-13	09-27	--	09-30	--	--	--	09-30	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	10-14	10-13	10-13	10-14	--	10-12	10-14	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	09-25	09-30	10-14	10-13	04-18	--	10-08	--	--	09-29	--	--	10-12	--	--	09-28	--	--	--	--	10-14	09-27	04-22	10-12	--	10-13	10-14	--	09-24	--	10-14	10-13	--	--	10-12	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	--	10-11	--	--	--	10-14	10-13	--	--	04-06	--	--	--	04-27	--	10-13	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	--	--	10-14	10-12	--	10-14	10-11	--	--	--	10-14	10-12	--	--	10-13	--	--	--	10-13	--	10-14	--	10-12	10-12	--	10-11
Peak daily increment					69	22					213	28	48	24	58			52		50	185	106			14	127		429	13						16				63	70			46	54		25		20			34	12	43		106			15	77	53		10		12	270	113	13	22	69			20	12		17	270		11		123	7		15	22	39					15	32	22			25	19	61	75			13											69				67									28				33		86	29		21	16	59	44	18	23			263	152		88						47	473		16			417				8					78			33	60	214			7	60			24		15					62	85		431				30								79	21	18	46	47		205	10								7	8	231	145	21		186			392			80			16					27	20	18	21		73	14		56		29	67			123																	21		23				18	45			6				15		237			90						18	22		5	82				71	345			31				101		19		24	71		93
Days since peak					12	192					11	14	13	212	11			12		11	12	13			13	12		13	12						12				13	24			12	14		13		13			11	205	12		11			12	12	11		11		17	14	14	13	11	12			12	11		13	12		165		11	16		191	21	12					186	12	14			12	11	14	33			167											26				13									12				11		11	175		11	187	11	11	175	198			13	23		14						11	27		11			31				11					11			13	28	30			20	11			11		174					12	28		25				25								11	11	12	12	11		13	11								30	25	11	12	190		17			26			13			27					11	28	186	13		12	11		31		11	12			13																	11		14				11	12			202				181		12			12						11	13		11	14				11	13			12				12		11		13	13		14
Last total	353	804	1458	716	1840	1632	1522	529	2145	4184	6029	1476	1788	1449	1598	1545	2254	2195	21313	1505	5834	3301	1074	9500	780	3432	853	17296	885	992	3656	732	2235	5755	717	3024	1290	857	2013	3025	5849	4222	1051	2181	1156	1195	1519	768	2223	3296	1423	844	1417	5673	5358	1394	633	770	2267	1479	680	752	2205	515	10971	4889	797	837	3623	1243	1865	1112	661	3624	665	6461	1807	962	3762	4428	384	659	891	1138	866	883	4398	1497	1431	730	903	521	1325	3306	1232	708	1536	1825	639	767	994	411	1511	4511	2046	1041	419	986	916	2251	1250	3279	984	2211	1011	2575	690	2130	2992	582	2113	375	706	2690	1414	1230	1403	3226	1282	977	3128	1435	2247	1082	599	1982	1589	1156	1181	3473	1903	9555	5966	3378	2913	20451	10194	636	2627	1101	1099	18017	3096	1082	300	562	18770	1340	1810	500	413	1937	406	582	1061	3266	1921	718	1074	1545	8278	1955	3694	334	1682	1678	833	783	2027	373	1816	3732	773	908	3149	4972	921	10669	1689	1290	8635	2040	2992	2593	1908	1739	4596	1510	3651	2335	891	1313	1246	1971	627	7584	552	1984	366	6463	1126	779	2131	1058	315	397	7851	5791	1212	728	7599	1135	802	16360	2960	1760	3252	879	687	882	1292	2400	326	1085	1222	1266	658	707	1127	2260	629	1502	3419	1924	1370	3212	820	1290	5274	1682	1072	634	6413	4199	3836	1214	599	6785	831	1909	1165	1976	6411	883	655	582	1782	1196	990	503	1269	904	1442	703	850	152	3078	5693	864	686	987	6765	4659	2710	3253	5363	1384	1192	1112	937	849	973	989	196	3035	733	950	1078	2288	9535	2898	981	1380	7564	860	1233	4005	941	753	1025	1175	2109	937	3479
Last daily increment	3	9	34	15	41	6	24	8	24	58	96	15	22	13	35	47	22	28	287	32	133	36	23	175	7	85	16	288	11	5	22	9	32	182	6	33	15	16	31	32	94	65	24	16	41	13	29	2	18	123	11	13	18	84	106	35	17	6	32	25	15	5	24	7	138	60	9	11	42	14	20	6	6	108	17	170	34	7	87	62	4	7	11	17	21	15	77	42	5	10	14	6	18	44	16	10	36	13	14	5	8	10	26	84	51	14	10	5	19	27	14	44	18	34	19	21	8	48	44	6	30	6	18	52	21	13	19	53	22	6	45	10	38	9	1	37	15	13	10	78	15	182	69	31	29	293	144	4	29	33	27	199	35	12	2	8	244	35	18	5	4	29	8	4	8	34	35	15	13	22	113	45	40	12	29	44	16	19	38	3	30	54	19	17	32	71	4	151	17	26	172	17	38	27	60	40	52	11	41	54	17	15	18	26	4	128	1	35	4	138	30	9	46	8	4	5	155	98	18	19	103	14	7	219	53	32	39	9	16	4	40	66	10	28	21	15	2	13	19	51	5	44	39	41	18	34	10	14	62	41	30	9	132	70	89	25	8	95	8	24	18	28	139	15	9	7	50	13	11	4	9	7	24	5	13	3	24	84	9	5	4	141	104	34	33	87	36	9	16	9	4	16	7	4	43	13	10	15	31	218	54	8	15	58	14	8	65	10	5	15	18	39	15	41
Last week	33	90	272	100	341	69	190	72	263	497	1009	140	230	137	302	351	153	272	2565	241	965	495	216	1319	75	681	109	2191	67	210	322	116	379	1480	68	336	136	134	310	295	845	729	185	252	274	133	223	81	184	759	144	63	209	704	650	312	106	86	362	218	85	45	238	71	1230	630	65	123	370	132	273	99	79	726	99	1387	346	50	655	621	32	94	84	142	197	102	760	240	118	63	164	79	144	432	146	81	299	144	107	72	54	61	216	631	402	107	77	95	125	264	168	332	148	335	133	344	61	315	307	77	258	39	99	361	150	148	213	446	169	83	433	80	336	104	41	304	201	90	71	650	287	1478	668	387	378	2637	1009	70	270	196	213	1832	304	95	28	67	2258	331	199	71	41	242	43	52	110	424	248	96	154	204	803	311	434	41	313	459	88	121	286	28	252	500	122	145	309	497	127	1221	203	137	1361	170	355	221	336	326	575	144	477	357	120	107	229	262	70	1073	57	360	29	1102	136	105	377	98	31	36	1285	830	113	102	861	157	85	2098	348	221	403	97	116	87	303	527	62	143	171	101	49	106	129	394	68	370	284	282	143	370	91	128	618	264	188	82	1017	729	667	155	69	750	66	201	166	220	998	165	65	88	326	81	109	47	126	93	245	70	147	22	441	867	56	59	96	1189	772	342	414	731	254	111	134	99	94	117	116	32	390	138	111	155	328	1840	389	131	165	710	91	131	562	130	79	124	122	346	107	437
Previous peak date	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-03	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-22	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-20	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	07-01	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-14	06-15	--	--	--	--	--	--	04-27	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	08-02	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	05-11	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Previous peak daily increment																												56																										40											68																																																												43																					75	79							24																															68																																																																														31
Low between peaks																												27																																					1																																																												1																													0																															7

Confirmed count forecast England (bold red line in graphs) 2020-10-26 to 2020-11-01

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-25	353	804	1458	716	1840	1632	1522	529	2145	4184	6029	1476	1788	1449	1598	1545	2254	2195	21313	1505	5834	3301	1074	9500	780	3432	853	17296	885	992	3656	732	2235	5755	717	3024	1290	857	2013	3025	5849	4222	1051	2181	1156	1195	1519	768	2223	3296	1423	844	1417	5673	5358	1394	633	770	2267	1479	680	752	2205	515	10971	4889	797	837	3623	1243	1865	1112	661	3624	665	6461	1807	962	3762	4428	384	659	891	1138	866	883	4398	1497	1431	730	903	521	1325	3306	1232	708	1536	1825	639	767	994	411	1511	4511	2046	1041	419	986	916	2251	1250	3279	984	2211	1011	2575	690	2130	2992	582	2113	375	706	2690	1414	1230	1403	3226	1282	977	3128	1435	2247	1082	599	1982	1589	1156	1181	3473	1903	9555	5966	3378	2913	20451	10194	636	2627	1101	1099	18017	3096	1082	300	562	18770	1340	1810	500	413	1937	406	582	1061	3266	1921	718	1074	1545	8278	1955	3694	334	1682	1678	833	783	2027	373	1816	3732	773	908	3149	4972	921	10669	1689	1290	8635	2040	2992	2593	1908	1739	4596	1510	3651	2335	891	1313	1246	1971	627	7584	552	1984	366	6463	1126	779	2131	1058	315	397	7851	5791	1212	728	7599	1135	802	16360	2960	1760	3252	879	687	882	1292	2400	326	1085	1222	1266	658	707	1127	2260	629	1502	3419	1924	1370	3212	820	1290	5274	1682	1072	634	6413	4199	3836	1214	599	6785	831	1909	1165	1976	6411	883	655	582	1782	1196	990	503	1269	904	1442	703	850	152	3078	5693	864	686	987	6765	4659	2710	3253	5363	1384	1192	1112	937	849	973	989	196	3035	733	950	1078	2288	9535	2898	981	1380	7564	860	1233	4005	941	753	1025	1175	2109	937	3479
2020-10-26	361	817	1505	716	1891	1641	1535	538	2168	4297	6271	1501	1799	1466	1645	1585	2263	2240	21730	1547	6017	3328	1113	9680	791	3432	867	17660	896	1001	3703	752	2312	6016	721	3038	1312	858	2068	3139	5985	4369	1076	2217	1213	1223	1557	781	2249	3433	1443	855	1467	5817	5459	1455	649	783	2292	1506	690	760	2275	525	11300	4931	809	854	3647	1262	1906	1112	667	3756	680	6780	1824	970	3784	4594	390	673	902	1157	925	896	4435	1546	1447	737	928	532	1360	3412	1253	713	1627	1859	654	792	1002	418	1544	4628	2106	1056	428	1021	921	2288	1277	3383	1004	2290	1034	2624	699	2174	3038	591	2167	386	724	2708	1435	1236	1432	3308	1311	987	3198	1448	2304	1099	604	2022	1589	1169	1191	3595	1954	9780	6208	3430	2990	20990	10240	654	2675	1133	1133	18340	3134	1095	316	576	19150	1418	1810	514	422	1978	413	588	1068	3329	1957	720	1100	1577	8394	1979	3813	341	1724	1809	847	800	2069	381	1859	3803	799	939	3193	5053	938	10800	1695	1320	8870	2067	3069	2594	1992	1771	4689	1531	3727	2388	906	1329	1280	2020	641	7743	557	2055	373	6715	1145	795	2258	1085	321	404	8050	5938	1228	728	7885	1165	813	16840	3011	1823	3312	896	703	901	1341	2481	336	1112	1247	1285	667	715	1144	2316	630	1563	3489	1943	1388	3229	832	1296	5426	1719	1104	641	6573	4306	3895	1236	604	6943	843	1938	1183	2012	6618	915	664	588	1911	1241	1005	510	1290	923	1452	713	870	155	3182	5810	878	696	1001	6824	4826	2795	3274	5485	1412	1208	1131	948	858	989	1002	201	3146	747	950	1112	2349	9960	2966	1004	1407	7776	877	1277	4087	970	765	1056	1195	2159	952	3597
2020-10-27	367	830	1549	729	1941	1649	1548	547	2216	4404	6450	1526	1812	1484	1692	1653	2296	2284	22170	1587	6168	3357	1153	9870	803	3472	881	18020	907	1016	3751	772	2402	6279	725	3051	1334	872	2128	3204	6125	4521	1100	2259	1269	1246	1594	793	2275	3566	1463	866	1503	5947	5559	1510	666	797	2318	1532	703	769	2328	535	11560	5024	822	872	3672	1280	1948	1115	682	3888	694	7024	1842	978	3894	4692	396	688	913	1186	962	910	4536	1594	1464	744	954	543	1397	3500	1273	718	1679	1894	670	816	1011	434	1577	4746	2165	1071	436	1053	928	2325	1319	3442	1024	2368	1057	2672	707	2243	3083	607	2225	396	740	2748	1455	1264	1461	3389	1340	996	3269	1462	2362	1116	609	2061	1617	1183	1200	3717	2006	10000	6358	3482	3064	21490	10370	670	2723	1164	1168	18530	3174	1108	322	590	19590	1489	1830	529	428	2019	420	595	1089	3394	1992	733	1127	1608	8506	2043	3898	347	1767	1897	861	816	2111	389	1903	3873	825	965	3236	5135	961	10930	1720	1349	9100	2096	3141	2618	2074	1830	4785	1552	3806	2439	921	1345	1314	2084	655	7898	562	2128	382	6946	1163	811	2342	1108	327	411	8269	6078	1245	742	8068	1196	825	17280	3062	1882	3371	910	718	923	1391	2560	345	1138	1273	1304	675	724	1160	2370	640	1628	3546	1987	1406	3247	844	1313	5547	1754	1135	649	6739	4413	3959	1258	608	7082	854	1965	1201	2048	6835	946	673	596	2014	1262	1020	517	1312	945	1463	722	890	158	3260	5944	893	706	1015	6884	4993	2866	3296	5610	1453	1225	1150	959	868	1004	1020	205	3212	763	963	1142	2404	10290	3032	1026	1433	7917	894	1317	4168	1002	778	1089	1215	2207	966	3687
2020-10-28	376	843	1593	751	1991	1658	1559	556	2261	4509	6652	1551	1825	1500	1737	1752	2326	2335	22600	1635	6338	3387	1192	10060	814	3527	895	18380	918	1027	3797	793	2482	6581	729	3062	1355	886	2177	3277	6268	4679	1123	2300	1326	1263	1632	805	2300	3704	1483	876	1535	6086	5658	1567	682	810	2345	1558	722	777	2390	545	11830	5128	834	891	3699	1299	1992	1125	700	4024	708	7291	1861	986	3989	4794	401	702	923	1213	1001	923	4654	1644	1480	751	979	553	1433	3574	1293	723	1729	1928	685	837	1019	442	1608	4864	2224	1085	445	1078	935	2364	1350	3510	1044	2449	1080	2721	715	2300	3128	618	2276	407	762	2775	1475	1288	1490	3474	1369	1006	3340	1475	2422	1133	614	2102	1640	1196	1209	3842	2059	10230	6497	3535	3123	22000	10510	687	2771	1194	1203	18710	3213	1120	328	603	20020	1544	1855	543	438	2059	426	601	1103	3458	2028	749	1153	1639	8618	2095	3978	354	1810	1983	878	833	2152	394	1946	3944	851	986	3278	5233	984	11050	1750	1378	9340	2124	3216	2643	2160	1890	4882	1573	3885	2491	936	1361	1347	2132	668	8052	568	2203	385	7191	1181	826	2424	1132	334	418	8467	6222	1260	754	8250	1229	837	17690	3114	1933	3430	925	733	939	1443	2642	355	1164	1298	1323	684	732	1176	2424	654	1695	3600	2046	1423	3266	856	1327	5667	1789	1167	657	6905	4519	4027	1279	616	7216	865	1993	1218	2085	7052	981	682	602	2119	1281	1034	524	1332	965	1474	732	910	160	3363	6075	907	716	1029	6953	5164	2947	3319	5736	1492	1241	1169	970	877	1020	1038	209	3291	778	973	1172	2472	10620	3099	1048	1472	8061	910	1348	4248	1026	790	1122	1235	2255	980	3786
2020-10-29	380	856	1637	764	2041	1666	1570	565	2301	4616	6829	1576	1839	1516	1782	1810	2348	2386	23040	1676	6491	3419	1233	10250	826	3595	908	18750	929	1039	3845	814	2550	6864	734	3073	1377	897	2232	3328	6414	4842	1147	2337	1385	1282	1669	817	2324	3840	1502	887	1563	6192	5756	1628	698	823	2372	1584	741	785	2447	555	12040	5230	846	909	3725	1318	2037	1135	712	4162	722	7518	1879	994	4083	4918	407	715	934	1234	1037	935	4755	1694	1496	758	1005	564	1470	3658	1312	728	1792	1963	700	856	1027	453	1640	4984	2283	1099	453	1099	942	2402	1376	3560	1063	2531	1103	2770	724	2353	3173	633	2318	417	780	2816	1495	1311	1519	3559	1397	1015	3413	1488	2482	1150	619	2142	1653	1209	1218	3970	2114	10480	6624	3588	3174	22480	10640	704	2819	1224	1237	18890	3253	1133	336	616	20380	1613	1873	558	448	2100	432	607	1120	3523	2064	768	1180	1670	8729	2145	4074	361	1853	2078	889	850	2193	398	1989	4014	878	1013	3320	5319	1020	11180	1775	1407	9590	2152	3269	2664	2247	1953	4981	1594	3966	2542	951	1376	1380	2172	681	8207	573	2282	388	7420	1199	840	2514	1150	340	424	8651	6347	1276	769	8400	1262	849	18040	3165	1986	3490	940	748	952	1496	2725	364	1190	1323	1342	692	740	1192	2478	664	1763	3644	2106	1441	3286	867	1342	5783	1823	1197	664	7075	4626	4094	1300	626	7332	876	2021	1236	2122	7243	1018	691	609	2226	1300	1049	531	1353	986	1485	741	930	163	3456	6192	921	725	1043	7021	5339	3012	3342	5866	1540	1257	1188	981	887	1035	1056	214	3372	794	981	1196	2518	10920	3166	1069	1511	8196	925	1379	4329	1051	802	1149	1255	2302	994	3874
2020-10-30	387	869	1681	779	2092	1674	1582	575	2350	4724	6976	1601	1853	1533	1829	1885	2367	2422	23490	1718	6650	3451	1275	10440	837	3641	922	19120	940	1052	3892	835	2620	7089	738	3085	1399	912	2277	3372	6562	5012	1170	2369	1446	1302	1707	829	2349	3979	1522	897	1596	6316	5855	1674	715	837	2399	1610	759	793	2502	565	12250	5309	858	928	3752	1336	2082	1140	720	4305	735	7754	1898	1002	4223	5024	413	730	944	1259	1077	948	4860	1745	1512	765	1031	575	1508	3728	1332	733	1840	2000	716	876	1036	462	1673	5107	2342	1114	462	1122	950	2442	1407	3612	1083	2615	1127	2820	732	2399	3218	646	2353	427	799	2853	1515	1334	1549	3647	1426	1023	3486	1502	2544	1168	624	2183	1672	1222	1227	4102	2171	10690	6723	3643	3225	22910	10760	721	2869	1254	1273	19040	3293	1146	340	629	20740	1681	1897	573	455	2141	439	614	1138	3590	2101	782	1207	1702	8840	2193	4160	367	1897	2175	899	867	2234	402	2033	4086	905	1050	3362	5396	1047	11310	1809	1437	9840	2180	3322	2682	2337	2000	5081	1615	4049	2594	965	1392	1413	2218	694	8362	578	2363	394	7650	1218	855	2587	1169	346	431	8849	6483	1292	782	8537	1296	861	18340	3218	2026	3549	956	763	965	1552	2810	373	1216	1349	1361	701	749	1208	2532	676	1834	3688	2159	1458	3305	879	1355	5874	1857	1229	672	7250	4734	4162	1322	632	7463	887	2049	1254	2159	7402	1052	700	617	2365	1310	1063	538	1374	994	1496	751	950	166	3542	6259	936	735	1057	7090	5519	3103	3365	5998	1585	1273	1207	992	896	1050	1075	218	3439	811	987	1212	2573	11250	3234	1089	1532	8290	941	1421	4411	1073	815	1175	1275	2350	1008	3948
2020-10-31	390	883	1725	795	2143	1683	1593	584	2383	4783	7105	1627	1867	1549	1876	1945	2383	2458	23950	1740	6781	3484	1317	10640	848	3653	935	19490	951	1064	3941	857	2674	7314	743	3096	1422	920	2311	3402	6713	5188	1194	2389	1510	1315	1746	841	2374	4122	1542	908	1613	6418	5955	1711	733	850	2427	1636	773	801	2540	576	12410	5377	870	947	3778	1355	2128	1144	731	4454	749	7937	1918	1010	4306	5095	419	744	954	1270	1108	962	4947	1798	1528	771	1057	585	1548	3785	1351	739	1887	2036	731	891	1045	473	1705	5234	2402	1128	471	1132	957	2482	1426	3655	1104	2702	1151	2870	740	2427	3263	660	2381	437	811	2864	1535	1349	1579	3736	1455	1032	3560	1515	2607	1185	629	2224	1682	1235	1236	4238	2230	10840	6804	3697	3255	23240	10850	738	2919	1285	1309	19060	3333	1159	343	641	20980	1732	1914	588	459	2183	445	620	1152	3657	2138	794	1235	1733	8952	2232	4215	374	1942	2248	905	884	2276	405	2078	4158	934	1066	3404	5457	1057	11440	1835	1468	10090	2208	3367	2682	2431	2037	5184	1636	4133	2646	980	1408	1447	2244	707	8519	584	2447	394	7842	1236	869	2645	1188	352	438	8975	6591	1309	790	8637	1331	874	18630	3272	2062	3610	971	779	975	1609	2899	383	1242	1375	1380	710	757	1224	2586	680	1909	3713	2201	1476	3325	891	1363	5970	1892	1260	680	7430	4844	4231	1343	638	7546	898	2076	1272	2197	7526	1083	709	624	2457	1318	1077	545	1395	1005	1508	760	970	168	3596	6315	951	744	1071	7160	5706	3165	3389	6134	1616	1290	1226	1004	906	1065	1087	223	3488	827	995	1222	2607	11490	3304	1110	1550	8387	956	1443	4493	1082	828	1198	1295	2398	1022	4003
2020-11-01	392	897	1770	811	2195	1691	1604	594	2411	4845	7230	1653	1881	1566	1923	1988	2401	2487	24420	1767	6917	3518	1361	10840	860	3735	949	19860	962	1077	3989	880	2684	7525	747	3108	1444	938	2344	3439	6868	5370	1218	2411	1577	1328	1784	852	2399	4269	1562	919	1635	6516	6056	1755	750	864	2455	1662	785	810	2556	586	12570	5442	883	966	3805	1374	2175	1152	738	4607	764	8152	1937	1017	4364	5177	425	758	965	1285	1136	975	5030	1852	1544	778	1084	596	1589	3835	1371	744	1935	2073	747	895	1051	482	1738	5364	2464	1143	480	1138	964	2523	1435	3701	1124	2792	1176	2920	749	2466	3308	668	2412	447	821	2916	1555	1361	1609	3828	1485	1040	3635	1528	2673	1203	634	2265	1698	1248	1245	4379	2290	11040	6891	3752	3288	23530	10960	756	2970	1315	1345	19240	3373	1171	344	654	21210	1774	1931	604	463	2225	451	627	1162	3725	2176	805	1263	1765	9065	2267	4265	380	1988	2319	919	901	2319	407	2123	4230	963	1081	3447	5518	1062	11580	1855	1499	10360	2236	3405	2706	2529	2077	5288	1657	4218	2698	995	1423	1481	2273	720	8677	589	2535	397	7960	1254	884	2682	1198	359	445	9135	6700	1325	812	8756	1367	886	18880	3326	2077	3670	987	794	981	1669	2991	393	1269	1401	1398	718	766	1240	2642	684	1986	3750	2239	1494	3345	902	1377	6040	1927	1293	688	7615	4955	4301	1365	646	7640	909	2104	1290	2236	7664	1097	718	632	2504	1331	1092	552	1416	1013	1519	770	991	171	3618	6391	966	754	1085	7231	5899	3204	3413	6273	1651	1306	1245	1015	916	1080	1096	227	3536	845	1006	1236	2644	11760	3375	1131	1566	8459	972	1449	4577	1093	841	1215	1316	2447	1036	4057

Confirmed count average forecast England (bold black line in graphs) 2020-10-26 to 2020-11-01

Date	Adur	Allerdale	Amber Valley	Arun	Ashfield	Ashford	Aylesbury Vale	Babergh	Barking and Dagenham	Barnet	Barnsley	Barrow-in-Furness	Basildon	Basingstoke and Deane	Bassetlaw	Bath and North East Somerset	Bedford	Bexley	Birmingham	Blaby	Blackburn with Darwen	Blackpool	Bolsover	Bolton	Boston	Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole	Bracknell Forest	Bradford	Braintree	Breckland	Brent	Brentwood	Brighton and Hove	Bristol	Broadland	Bromley	Bromsgrove	Broxbourne	Broxtowe	Burnley	Bury	Calderdale	Cambridge	Camden	Cannock Chase	Canterbury	Carlisle	Castle Point	Central Bedfordshire	Charnwood	Chelmsford	Cheltenham	Cherwell	Cheshire East	Cheshire West and Chester	Chesterfield	Chichester	Chiltern	Chorley	Colchester	Copeland	Corby	Cornwall and Isles of Scilly	Cotswold	County Durham	Coventry	Craven	Crawley	Croydon	Dacorum	Darlington	Dartford	Daventry	Derby	Derbyshire Dales	Doncaster	Dorset	Dover	Dudley	Ealing	East Cambridgeshire	East Devon	East Hampshire	East Hertfordshire	East Lindsey	East Northamptonshire	East Riding of Yorkshire	East Staffordshire	East Suffolk	Eastbourne	Eastleigh	Eden	Elmbridge	Enfield	Epping Forest	Epsom and Ewell	Erewash	Exeter	Fareham	Fenland	Folkestone and Hythe	Forest of Dean	Fylde	Gateshead	Gedling	Gloucester	Gosport	Gravesham	Great Yarmouth	Greenwich	Guildford	Halton	Hambleton	Hammersmith and Fulham	Harborough	Haringey	Harlow	Harrogate	Harrow	Hart	Hartlepool	Hastings	Havant	Havering	Herefordshire	Hertsmere	High Peak	Hillingdon	Hinckley and Bosworth	Horsham	Hounslow	Huntingdonshire	Hyndburn	Ipswich	Isle of Wight	Islington	Kensington and Chelsea	Kettering	King's Lynn and West Norfolk	Kingston upon Hull	Kingston upon Thames	Kirklees	Knowsley	Lambeth	Lancaster	Leeds	Leicester	Lewes	Lewisham	Lichfield	Lincoln	Liverpool	Luton	Maidstone	Maldon	Malvern Hills	Manchester	Mansfield	Medway	Melton	Mendip	Merton	Mid Devon	Mid Suffolk	Mid Sussex	Middlesbrough	Milton Keynes	Mole Valley	New Forest	Newark and Sherwood	Newcastle upon Tyne	Newcastle-under-Lyme	Newham	North Devon	North East Derbyshire	North East Lincolnshire	North Hertfordshire	North Kesteven	North Lincolnshire	North Norfolk	North Somerset	North Tyneside	North Warwickshire	North West Leicestershire	Northampton	Northumberland	Norwich	Nottingham	Nuneaton and Bedworth	Oadby and Wigston	Oldham	Oxford	Pendle	Peterborough	Plymouth	Portsmouth	Preston	Reading	Redbridge	Redcar and Cleveland	Redditch	Reigate and Banstead	Ribble Valley	Richmond upon Thames	Richmondshire	Rochdale	Rochford	Rossendale	Rother	Rotherham	Rugby	Runnymede	Rushcliffe	Rushmoor	Rutland	Ryedale	Salford	Sandwell	Scarborough	Sedgemoor	Sefton	Selby	Sevenoaks	Sheffield	Shropshire	Slough	Solihull	Somerset West and Taunton	South Bucks	South Cambridgeshire	South Derbyshire	South Gloucestershire	South Hams	South Holland	South Kesteven	South Lakeland	South Norfolk	South Northamptonshire	South Oxfordshire	South Ribble	South Somerset	South Staffordshire	South Tyneside	Southampton	Southend-on-Sea	Southwark	Spelthorne	St Albans	St. Helens	Stafford	Staffordshire Moorlands	Stevenage	Stockport	Stockton-on-Tees	Stoke-on-Trent	Stratford-on-Avon	Stroud	Sunderland	Surrey Heath	Sutton	Swale	Swindon	Tameside	Tamworth	Tandridge	Teignbridge	Telford and Wrekin	Tendring	Test Valley	Tewkesbury	Thanet	Three Rivers	Thurrock	Tonbridge and Malling	Torbay	Torridge	Tower Hamlets	Trafford	Tunbridge Wells	Uttlesford	Vale of White Horse	Wakefield	Walsall	Waltham Forest	Wandsworth	Warrington	Warwick	Watford	Waverley	Wealden	Wellingborough	Welwyn Hatfield	West Berkshire	West Devon	West Lancashire	West Lindsey	West Oxfordshire	West Suffolk	Westminster	Wigan	Wiltshire	Winchester	Windsor and Maidenhead	Wirral	Woking	Wokingham	Wolverhampton	Worcester	Worthing	Wychavon	Wycombe	Wyre	Wyre Forest	York
2020-10-25	353	804	1458	716	1840	1632	1522	529	2145	4184	6029	1476	1788	1449	1598	1545	2254	2195	21313	1505	5834	3301	1074	9500	780	3432	853	17296	885	992	3656	732	2235	5755	717	3024	1290	857	2013	3025	5849	4222	1051	2181	1156	1195	1519	768	2223	3296	1423	844	1417	5673	5358	1394	633	770	2267	1479	680	752	2205	515	10971	4889	797	837	3623	1243	1865	1112	661	3624	665	6461	1807	962	3762	4428	384	659	891	1138	866	883	4398	1497	1431	730	903	521	1325	3306	1232	708	1536	1825	639	767	994	411	1511	4511	2046	1041	419	986	916	2251	1250	3279	984	2211	1011	2575	690	2130	2992	582	2113	375	706	2690	1414	1230	1403	3226	1282	977	3128	1435	2247	1082	599	1982	1589	1156	1181	3473	1903	9555	5966	3378	2913	20451	10194	636	2627	1101	1099	18017	3096	1082	300	562	18770	1340	1810	500	413	1937	406	582	1061	3266	1921	718	1074	1545	8278	1955	3694	334	1682	1678	833	783	2027	373	1816	3732	773	908	3149	4972	921	10669	1689	1290	8635	2040	2992	2593	1908	1739	4596	1510	3651	2335	891	1313	1246	1971	627	7584	552	1984	366	6463	1126	779	2131	1058	315	397	7851	5791	1212	728	7599	1135	802	16360	2960	1760	3252	879	687	882	1292	2400	326	1085	1222	1266	658	707	1127	2260	629	1502	3419	1924	1370	3212	820	1290	5274	1682	1072	634	6413	4199	3836	1214	599	6785	831	1909	1165	1976	6411	883	655	582	1782	1196	990	503	1269	904	1442	703	850	152	3078	5693	864	686	987	6765	4659	2710	3253	5363	1384	1192	1112	937	849	973	989	196	3035	733	950	1078	2288	9535	2898	981	1380	7564	860	1233	4005	941	753	1025	1175	2109	937	3479
2020-10-26	359	818	1502	729	1909	1640	1551	540	2185	4285	6196	1498	1817	1469	1644	1601	2274	2235	21710	1541	6022	3372	1122	9740	791	3525	868	17630	895	1016	3699	751	2297	6026	727	3075	1312	878	2068	3083	6007	4341	1079	2229	1205	1214	1557	786	2253	3429	1442	855	1443	5796	5476	1441	648	782	2328	1508	694	759	2237	526	11190	4986	808	855	3671	1264	1909	1124	672	3742	682	6723	1859	969	3859	4562	389	675	904	1160	905	902	4520	1547	1448	741	928	535	1349	3379	1254	722	1603	1844	655	782	1003	421	1555	4604	2127	1056	431	1001	934	2292	1272	3334	1006	2271	1037	2625	699	2178	3048	593	2153	382	724	2759	1436	1247	1440	3310	1310	988	3190	1446	2298	1098	604	2024	1617	1169	1192	3573	1942	9830	6084	3446	2988	20930	10350	646	2673	1131	1135	18280	3140	1095	306	572	19110	1392	1844	510	420	1974	414	589	1076	3329	1958	733	1097	1583	8379	2004	3782	342	1732	1764	849	800	2080	378	1854	3825	794	942	3192	5053	939	10800	1722	1313	8870	2065	3081	2625	1974	1792	4698	1530	3715	2393	911	1330	1284	2024	636	7806	559	2076	373	6714	1149	794	2199	1082	320	404	8093	5930	1234	744	7761	1169	813	16720	3013	1799	3318	893	704	894	1355	2473	335	1110	1256	1284	667	725	1146	2336	636	1571	3462	1969	1389	3264	832	1307	5401	1736	1117	646	6572	4338	3944	1243	611	6924	844	1949	1189	2016	6595	911	665	590	1858	1221	1008	511	1291	916	1488	713	872	154	3170	5810	872	695	1004	6980	4784	2787	3315	5490	1428	1207	1130	954	860	991	1018	201	3135	751	964	1103	2336	9900	2963	1004	1407	7751	879	1264	4104	967	763	1044	1193	2160	952	3555
2020-10-27	363	831	1550	743	1975	1649	1581	550	2235	4375	6413	1523	1854	1496	1700	1665	2301	2277	22180	1579	6202	3472	1167	9990	804	3637	884	18010	906	1047	3753	770	2368	6321	738	3131	1335	904	2126	3145	6165	4486	1115	2280	1259	1235	1595	804	2281	3554	1467	865	1477	5921	5589	1495	662	797	2398	1543	705	768	2274	538	11450	5100	820	876	3724	1288	1961	1138	685	3861	697	7001	1921	978	3972	4679	394	690	919	1184	945	918	4639	1588	1469	748	958	554	1380	3463	1276	738	1664	1871	673	798	1012	433	1590	4706	2205	1072	443	1019	953	2335	1298	3389	1028	2336	1058	2684	709	2247	3102	606	2204	388	735	2830	1463	1271	1478	3389	1339	1002	3268	1460	2359	1116	610	2073	1658	1183	1203	3667	1994	10100	6219	3526	3080	21450	10510	658	2716	1162	1172	18600	3190	1107	312	581	19530	1454	1873	523	427	2016	419	598	1094	3411	1994	747	1125	1613	8477	2058	3868	348	1788	1862	865	821	2131	385	1897	3913	816	967	3242	5132	963	10940	1754	1338	9110	2093	3151	2662	2035	1857	4809	1554	3793	2461	929	1346	1328	2088	646	8009	569	2156	382	6937	1169	810	2280	1101	326	410	8351	6079	1253	760	7932	1202	827	17110	3066	1838	3389	908	724	912	1413	2556	346	1132	1294	1303	677	743	1167	2405	647	1643	3510	2011	1411	3321	844	1329	5519	1780	1153	657	6753	4460	4050	1269	621	7057	855	1982	1216	2051	6791	935	676	603	1923	1242	1024	518	1309	934	1538	723	902	158	3243	5953	881	705	1023	7198	4916	2846	3385	5623	1472	1225	1150	971	877	1010	1037	207	3197	771	983	1132	2395	10250	3022	1022	1433	7899	891	1295	4196	997	776	1065	1214	2224	969	3644
2020-10-28	370	843	1597	763	2042	1658	1613	561	2287	4465	6639	1546	1892	1521	1757	1758	2327	2320	22660	1619	6395	3573	1210	10250	817	3758	900	18390	917	1077	3808	789	2430	6656	750	3187	1359	927	2182	3211	6315	4633	1151	2333	1315	1255	1638	820	2311	3689	1490	876	1508	6050	5705	1550	677	812	2462	1579	719	777	2314	550	11720	5220	833	898	3780	1312	2019	1153	701	3983	713	7305	1984	986	4084	4800	400	705	934	1207	987	935	4766	1632	1489	757	990	572	1409	3546	1298	750	1725	1899	691	809	1020	442	1630	4819	2291	1088	455	1035	970	2379	1322	3446	1051	2404	1078	2742	719	2305	3149	617	2255	394	751	2887	1489	1292	1516	3474	1368	1013	3347	1473	2421	1133	616	2122	1694	1198	1213	3766	2049	10390	6344	3599	3156	22020	10690	671	2762	1193	1210	18930	3240	1126	319	592	19940	1517	1907	535	435	2058	426	606	1111	3497	2030	761	1154	1647	8574	2108	3951	354	1844	1961	882	841	2176	390	1936	3996	836	988	3291	5218	987	11100	1790	1364	9370	2123	3224	2697	2103	1924	4923	1579	3871	2530	950	1365	1377	2136	657	8205	578	2235	385	7168	1190	828	2362	1125	331	417	8594	6228	1274	775	8109	1231	841	17480	3120	1875	3462	922	746	926	1467	2640	356	1154	1319	1321	688	762	1190	2485	659	1706	3557	2063	1434	3392	856	1347	5639	1824	1187	668	6932	4605	4147	1296	634	7190	867	2014	1245	2093	6990	962	686	623	1989	1263	1040	526	1328	951	1578	733	929	161	3342	6099	890	715	1041	7423	5050	2913	3457	5761	1516	1244	1171	989	894	1029	1060	213	3272	791	1001	1163	2458	10610	3094	1042	1469	8047	908	1318	4296	1022	789	1086	1235	2290	983	3737
2020-10-29	374	856	1647	778	2107	1667	1644	572	2327	4558	6868	1570	1930	1536	1816	1818	2349	2363	23130	1657	6575	3674	1252	10490	830	3887	916	18780	929	1108	3864	808	2486	6993	761	3243	1382	952	2241	3267	6463	4778	1189	2383	1371	1274	1677	836	2342	3824	1512	887	1535	6169	5810	1607	691	826	2530	1619	734	786	2354	562	11950	5341	846	919	3836	1335	2070	1169	713	4109	728	7559	2051	995	4196	4936	405	721	944	1228	1028	948	4886	1677	1507	766	1017	589	1440	3633	1320	763	1792	1926	709	821	1028	453	1662	4923	2375	1104	466	1051	990	2424	1346	3501	1075	2472	1096	2800	729	2364	3191	630	2305	399	765	2953	1510	1314	1552	3563	1400	1023	3427	1487	2484	1151	622	2173	1729	1212	1222	3871	2103	10690	6466	3664	3225	22560	10850	683	2809	1225	1248	19260	3290	1142	326	606	20300	1584	1935	547	443	2101	433	615	1128	3575	2067	778	1183	1682	8671	2160	4046	360	1902	2062	895	862	2231	394	1979	4073	857	1012	3343	5298	1019	11250	1827	1390	9620	2151	3282	2731	2164	1995	5034	1604	3950	2592	968	1383	1424	2179	667	8395	588	2331	389	7385	1212	846	2447	1142	337	423	8831	6359	1291	791	8266	1262	856	17830	3175	1914	3536	937	766	940	1540	2727	366	1176	1348	1339	697	779	1208	2553	669	1772	3604	2121	1457	3452	868	1367	5757	1864	1226	680	7113	4750	4263	1324	647	7315	877	2054	1276	2131	7179	992	696	639	2055	1283	1057	533	1345	969	1620	743	954	164	3433	6244	899	724	1061	7635	5186	2970	3527	5909	1566	1262	1192	1003	911	1049	1081	218	3348	812	1016	1185	2518	10930	3158	1064	1505	8192	921	1341	4392	1049	802	1104	1256	2357	998	3828
2020-10-30	380	869	1696	791	2168	1677	1674	584	2370	4647	7100	1596	1969	1557	1876	1886	2370	2399	23610	1697	6756	3779	1299	10710	844	4001	932	19180	940	1141	3919	828	2539	7279	772	3288	1407	977	2294	3326	6611	4928	1223	2430	1431	1294	1721	848	2367	3965	1535	897	1563	6298	5916	1659	705	839	2591	1659	747	795	2392	573	12200	5446	859	934	3893	1352	2116	1183	722	4237	745	7814	2106	1004	4316	5050	411	734	953	1249	1070	967	4998	1719	1524	776	1046	604	1471	3722	1343	775	1852	1954	727	830	1036	462	1700	5016	2455	1120	477	1066	1011	2469	1370	3556	1097	2540	1117	2857	739	2413	3238	642	2355	405	777	3014	1529	1332	1585	3650	1428	1034	3508	1501	2549	1168	627	2225	1764	1226	1232	3960	2155	10950	6583	3720	3304	22960	11010	695	2850	1255	1287	19580	3342	1158	332	614	20640	1652	1965	559	451	2144	440	625	1144	3641	2105	791	1212	1713	8769	2209	4135	366	1959	2167	909	883	2277	400	2022	4147	879	1046	3393	5375	1044	11410	1860	1417	9870	2181	3337	2757	2226	2055	5142	1629	4030	2665	986	1401	1472	2230	678	8592	598	2409	395	7600	1231	865	2538	1158	343	430	9073	6494	1309	806	8424	1295	870	18150	3230	1946	3609	952	784	955	1583	2817	378	1198	1375	1358	707	795	1226	2611	680	1850	3652	2167	1480	3501	880	1386	5859	1900	1269	692	7299	4867	4371	1345	658	7447	891	2088	1304	2160	7352	1020	707	653	2125	1299	1074	541	1362	986	1665	753	977	167	3509	6364	908	733	1073	7821	5320	3042	3595	6040	1614	1281	1213	1020	929	1070	1101	222	3417	834	1028	1208	2580	11260	3224	1084	1529	8291	937	1368	4477	1071	815	1123	1277	2426	1013	3918
2020-10-31	384	882	1743	807	2225	1686	1702	595	2405	4693	7338	1618	2009	1572	1938	1938	2388	2439	24100	1735	6935	3884	1337	10940	857	4098	949	19590	949	1169	3973	846	2587	7578	783	3338	1425	999	2345	3374	6754	5074	1261	2470	1494	1313	1759	860	2391	4102	1557	908	1586	6416	6006	1715	716	851	2643	1696	760	805	2427	582	12400	5551	872	951	3948	1367	2167	1197	731	4366	761	8059	2166	1012	4423	5140	417	749	960	1264	1113	974	5106	1759	1541	781	1075	618	1502	3805	1366	787	1910	1984	746	836	1044	473	1730	5116	2530	1137	488	1078	1024	2510	1390	3611	1120	2605	1136	2914	748	2446	3271	654	2406	411	787	3054	1549	1353	1616	3721	1458	1043	3592	1515	2616	1185	633	2278	1799	1241	1240	4050	2209	11160	6698	3768	3363	23460	11150	704	2886	1285	1327	19880	3387	1169	339	624	20940	1722	1985	571	459	2189	446	633	1160	3715	2141	803	1243	1735	8869	2260	4212	372	2014	2279	922	905	2316	404	2065	4200	902	1061	3445	5447	1061	11550	1887	1444	10110	2209	3388	2775	2287	2121	5235	1655	4112	2729	1003	1418	1523	2253	689	8748	608	2479	397	7794	1248	881	2635	1175	349	436	9272	6604	1322	819	8574	1326	884	18470	3287	1979	3677	966	801	967	1622	2910	388	1221	1393	1376	716	813	1240	2671	689	1908	3698	2202	1503	3535	892	1400	5968	1937	1299	703	7490	4969	4460	1364	667	7558	901	2118	1329	2192	7519	1044	718	662	2187	1315	1088	548	1378	1003	1699	763	998	169	3557	6491	917	743	1083	7984	5460	3089	3659	6170	1654	1300	1234	1032	947	1087	1113	226	3470	856	1043	1223	2636	11540	3280	1101	1550	8383	949	1385	4554	1083	828	1139	1299	2498	1028	3998
2020-11-01	388	894	1791	819	2283	1695	1731	607	2447	4739	7583	1641	2049	1585	2002	1980	2406	2478	24580	1774	7106	3990	1376	11180	871	4219	966	20000	960	1198	4027	866	2617	7895	795	3395	1446	1025	2398	3426	6898	5231	1298	2511	1556	1331	1799	874	2417	4235	1581	918	1608	6539	6104	1772	729	865	2704	1734	771	814	2459	593	12600	5654	885	967	4006	1385	2208	1213	738	4500	776	8333	2233	1021	4523	5243	422	764	969	1280	1155	981	5202	1798	1559	789	1103	632	1534	3889	1390	800	1970	2013	765	841	1051	482	1767	5221	2605	1154	497	1091	1038	2553	1412	3667	1144	2666	1154	2966	757	2484	3304	666	2458	418	795	3109	1569	1371	1647	3795	1486	1053	3677	1529	2684	1203	639	2332	1832	1256	1247	4143	2266	11390	6822	3811	3425	23830	11280	714	2919	1317	1369	20210	3435	1181	345	632	21210	1792	1997	584	466	2234	452	642	1176	3788	2177	814	1273	1755	8971	2306	4294	378	2074	2382	937	927	2360	407	2105	4251	924	1078	3493	5513	1079	11700	1911	1472	10350	2237	3427	2805	2348	2179	5332	1681	4195	2797	1021	1435	1570	2284	699	8898	619	2556	401	7948	1266	895	2713	1189	355	442	9496	6714	1337	834	8738	1358	898	18800	3345	2006	3743	980	823	978	1675	3006	399	1245	1410	1395	726	829	1255	2738	697	1967	3745	2234	1527	3581	904	1414	6067	1974	1328	714	7680	5079	4557	1383	677	7678	910	2145	1360	2220	7697	1062	728	676	2236	1334	1102	555	1394	1020	1737	771	1019	172	3600	6627	926	752	1092	8165	5600	3128	3723	6297	1698	1319	1256	1041	965	1104	1127	230	3520	879	1056	1241	2693	11810	3330	1113	1574	8487	961	1395	4624	1096	842	1156	1322	2567	1042	4080

Data issues

There is an issue with the reported local authority data: the last few (usually three) observations show no change.

The following graph illustrates the issue for two districts:

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Districts_of_England_(2019).svg

Further information

We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
The forecasts are constructed as follows:
1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.

COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-10-25 lower tier local authorities of England (with more than 5 cases in the previous week).

General information

Forecasts for districts of England, one week ahead from 2020-10-25