COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-06-22


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Recent changes

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (last observation 2020-06-05).

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-23 to 2020-06-29

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-22 305289 1233926 60550 3984 10523 191768 12527 246504 191442 238720 49658 32227 39392 24291 58932
2020-06-23 306000 1237000 60600 4060 10600 192000 12500 247000 192000 239000 49700 32500 39700 24500 59400
2020-06-24 308000 1240000 60700 4140 10600 193000 12600 247000 192000 239000 49800 32800 40000 24800 60200
2020-06-25 309000 1242000 60800 4220 10700 193000 12600 248000 192000 239000 49900 33100 40300 25100 61100
2020-06-26 310000 1245000 60800 4310 10700 194000 12600 248000 192000 239000 50000 33300 40600 25400 62000
2020-06-27 311000 1247000 60900 4390 10800 194000 12700 248000 192000 239000 50100 33600 40900 25700 63000
2020-06-28 312000 1249000 61000 4480 10900 195000 12700 249000 192000 239000 50300 33900 41200 26000 63900
2020-06-29 313000 1250000 61100 4580 10900 195000 12800 249000 192000 240000 50400 34200 41500 26200 64900

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-06-23 to 2020-06-29

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-06-22 1106470 103418 246963 71367 440215 46845 207525 185122 257447 30682 591465 101590 188897 2312302 30031 15499 54599 184765 30689 45512 10058 10803 100098 60913 26138 4254 137167 42633 12428 13818 50231 106851 64603 63643 33147 16647 22329 53964 17776 169362 9831 13528 388488 45537 10734 7083 86576 14945 25666 6326 34696 117790 14630 58465 28834 25068 2551
2020-06-23 1132000 104000 252000 74000 459000 47800 210000 191000 259000 31000 599000 106000 190000 2331000 30500 16000 57500 190000 30900 45600 10100 10900 104000 61500 26300 4370 138000 42900 12500 13900 50500 107000 64900 63800 33400 17000 22600 55600 17900 170000 9900 13900 389000 45800 11100 7130 86800 15000 26700 6370 35200 122000 15100 58800 29400 25300 2580
2020-06-24 1163000 104000 258000 77700 480000 48800 212000 199000 261000 31500 607000 112000 191000 2356000 31100 16600 60900 197000 31000 45700 10100 10900 109000 62400 26600 4520 138000 43200 12600 14100 50900 107000 65300 64100 33700 17500 22900 57600 18000 170000 9900 14300 390000 46300 11500 7220 87200 15000 27900 6420 35700 128000 15500 59300 30200 25600 2610
2020-06-25 1194000 104000 265000 81700 502000 49800 215000 206000 263000 32100 614000 117000 192000 2381000 31800 17200 64400 204000 31200 45800 10200 11000 113000 63200 26900 4680 139000 43500 12700 14300 51300 107000 65600 64300 34000 17900 23300 59600 18200 170000 10000 14800 391000 46800 12000 7310 87600 15000 29100 6470 36300 133000 16100 59800 30900 25900 2640
2020-06-26 1227000 105000 272000 85900 526000 50900 217000 214000 265000 32600 622000 123000 193000 2405000 32400 17900 68100 210000 31400 45900 10200 11100 118000 64100 27100 4840 139000 43700 12900 14400 51700 108000 66000 64500 34300 18400 23800 61700 18300 171000 10100 15300 391000 47300 12400 7400 88000 15000 30400 6530 36900 139000 16600 60200 31700 26100 2670
2020-06-27 1260000 105000 279000 90300 550000 51900 220000 223000 267000 33200 630000 129000 194000 2430000 33000 18500 72000 217000 31600 45900 10200 11100 124000 65000 27400 5010 139000 44000 13000 14600 52100 108000 66300 64800 34700 18900 24400 63900 18400 171000 10200 15700 392000 47800 12900 7490 88400 15100 31700 6580 37500 145000 17100 60700 32500 26400 2700
2020-06-28 1295000 106000 287000 95000 576000 53000 222000 231000 270000 33800 638000 136000 195000 2454000 33700 19200 76200 224000 31800 46000 10300 11200 129000 66000 27700 5180 140000 44300 13200 14700 52500 108000 66600 65000 35000 19400 25000 66200 18600 171000 10300 16200 393000 48400 13400 7610 88800 15100 33100 6630 38100 152000 17700 61200 33400 26700 2730
2020-06-29 1331000 106000 295000 99900 603000 54200 225000 240000 273000 34400 646000 142000 197000 2479000 34300 19900 80500 232000 31900 46100 10300 11300 135000 66900 27900 5360 140000 44600 13300 14900 52900 108000 67000 65300 35300 19900 25700 68600 18700 172000 10400 16700 393000 48900 13900 7750 89200 15100 34600 6690 38800 158000 18300 61700 34200 27000 2760

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-23 to 2020-06-29

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSE
2020-06-22 305289 1233926 60550 3984 10523 191768 12527 246504 191442 238720 49658 32227 39392 24291 58932
2020-06-23 306000 1237000 60600 4060 10600 192000 12600 247000 192000 239000 49800 32500 39600 24600 59500
2020-06-24 308000 1240000 60700 4130 10600 193000 12600 247000 192000 239000 49800 32800 39900 24800 60000
2020-06-25 309000 1243000 60700 4210 10600 194000 12700 248000 192000 240000 49900 33000 40100 25100 60500
2020-06-26 310000 1246000 60800 4280 10700 194000 12800 248000 192000 240000 50000 33300 40400 25400 61100
2020-06-27 311000 1248000 60800 4360 10700 195000 12800 248000 192000 240000 50100 33500 40600 25700 61600
2020-06-28 312000 1250000 60900 4440 10800 195000 12900 249000 192000 240000 50200 33800 40900 25900 62200
2020-06-29 313000 1252000 61000 4520 10800 196000 12900 249000 193000 240000 50300 34100 41100 26200 62700

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-06-23 to 2020-06-29

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-06-22 1106470 103418 246963 71367 440215 46845 207525 185122 257447 30682 591465 101590 188897 2312302 30031 15499 54599 184765 30689 45512 10058 10803 100098 60913 26138 4254 137167 42633 12428 13818 50231 106851 64603 63643 33147 16647 22329 53964 17776 169362 9831 13528 388488 45537 10734 7083 86576 14945 25666 6326 34696 117790 14630 58465 28834 25068 2551
2020-06-23 1132000 104000 253000 74000 460000 47800 210000 192000 260000 31300 599000 106000 190000 2340000 30500 16300 58100 191000 30800 45600 10100 10900 103000 61700 26400 4440 138000 42900 12600 13900 50600 107000 64900 63900 33500 17200 22600 55600 17900 170000 9900 13800 389000 46100 11000 7160 87000 15000 26800 6370 35000 124000 15100 59000 29600 25300 2570
2020-06-24 1159000 104000 259000 77000 482000 48700 213000 199000 263000 31900 606000 112000 191000 2367000 31000 17200 61400 198000 31000 45700 10100 10900 107000 62700 26700 4630 138000 43100 12700 14000 51000 107000 65300 64100 33800 17700 23400 57300 18000 170000 10000 14200 390000 46700 11300 7340 87500 15100 27900 6420 35400 130000 15500 59400 30300 25600 2590
2020-06-25 1186000 104000 264000 80400 504000 49700 215000 206000 266000 32500 614000 117000 192000 2394000 31500 18000 64900 205000 31100 45700 10200 11000 110000 63600 27000 4830 139000 43400 12900 14100 51400 107000 65600 64300 34100 18100 24100 59000 18200 170000 10100 14600 391000 47200 11600 7510 88000 15200 29100 6470 35700 136000 16000 59900 31000 25900 2610
2020-06-26 1213000 105000 270000 83900 528000 50600 218000 214000 269000 33200 621000 122000 193000 2419000 32000 18900 68600 213000 31300 45800 10200 11100 114000 64600 27200 5030 139000 43600 13000 14200 51800 108000 65900 64600 34500 18600 24900 60900 18300 171000 10200 15000 391000 47800 11900 7690 88400 15300 30400 6520 36100 143000 16400 60400 31700 26200 2630
2020-06-27 1241000 105000 276000 87500 553000 51600 220000 222000 272000 33800 628000 128000 194000 2445000 32500 19900 72400 220000 31400 45900 10200 11100 118000 65600 27500 5240 140000 43900 13200 14300 52200 108000 66200 64800 34800 19100 25800 62800 18400 171000 10300 15400 392000 48300 12200 7870 88900 15400 31700 6560 36500 149000 16900 60800 32500 26400 2640
2020-06-28 1270000 105000 282000 91300 579000 52600 223000 231000 275000 34500 636000 134000 196000 2471000 33100 20900 76400 228000 31600 46000 10300 11200 122000 66600 27800 5450 140000 44100 13300 14400 52600 108000 66500 65000 35200 19700 26600 64800 18600 171000 10400 15800 393000 48900 12600 8060 89300 15500 33000 6610 36900 157000 17400 61300 33300 26700 2660
2020-06-29 1299000 106000 289000 95300 606000 53600 225000 240000 279000 35100 644000 141000 197000 2497000 33600 22000 80600 237000 31800 46000 10300 11300 126000 67500 28100 5680 140000 44400 13500 14500 53000 108000 66900 65300 35500 20200 27500 66800 18700 172000 10500 16200 393000 49500 12900 8250 89800 15600 34400 6660 37300 164000 17900 61800 34100 27000 2680

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-06-23 to 2020-07-01

DateUKEUBEBGCZDEDKESFRITNLPLPTROSEBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-06-22 305289 1233926 60550 3984 10523 191768 12527 246504 191442 238720 49658 32227 39392 24291 58932 1106470 103418 246963 71367 440215 46845 207525 185122 257447 30682 591465 101590 188897 2312302 30031 15499 54599 184765 30689 45512 10058 10803 100098 60913 26138 4254 137167 42633 12428 13818 50231 106851 64603 63643 33147 16647 22329 53964 17776 169362 9831 13528 388488 45537 10734 7083 86576 14945 25666 6326 34696 117790 14630 58465 28834 25068 2551
2020-06-23 306000 1238000 60700 4090 10600 192000 12500 247000 191000 239000 49700 32500 39700 24500 60100 1135000 104000 255000 73900 452000 48100 210000 190000 259000 31000 597000 106000 190000 2338000 30600 16000 57000 188000 30900 45600 10100 10900 104000 61900 26400 4330 138000 42800 12500 14000 50400 107000 64900 64000 33400 17100 22300 55600 17900 170000 9900 13900 389000 45900 11200 7080 86600 14900 26600 6370 35200 121000 15100 58900 29500 25300 2580
2020-06-24 307000 1240000 60700 4190 10600 193000 12600 247000 192000 239000 49800 32700 40000 24700 60800 1152000 104000 260000 76600 458000 49200 213000 192000 261000 31500 603000 110000 191000 2375000 31200 16400 59700 191000 31000 45700 10100 10900 105000 62900 26600 4360 138000 43000 12600 14100 50700 107000 65100 64400 33700 17300 22300 56700 18000 170000 10000 14200 389000 46400 11400 7220 86800 14900 27300 6410 35800 122000 15200 59400 29800 25500 2610
2020-06-25 307000 1243000 60800 4290 10700 194000 12600 247000 192000 239000 49800 32900 40200 24800 61300 1164000 104000 266000 80300 468000 50000 215000 195000 263000 31900 608000 114000 191000 2407000 31800 16700 62400 194000 31100 45700 10100 11000 107000 63800 26900 4400 139000 43200 12700 14200 50900 107000 65300 64800 33900 17500 22700 57800 18000 170000 10000 14500 390000 46900 11600 7340 86900 14900 27900 6440 36300 125000 15500 59800 30400 25700 2640
2020-06-26 307000 1245000 60800 4370 10800 194000 12600 248000 192000 239000 49800 33100 40500 25000 61900 1177000 105000 273000 84000 473000 50800 216000 197000 265000 32300 614000 119000 192000 2432000 32400 17100 64500 196000 31200 45700 10200 11000 109000 64700 27100 4440 139000 43300 12700 14400 51200 108000 65500 65100 34200 17700 23300 58600 18100 170000 10100 14700 390000 47300 11800 7490 86900 14900 28500 6480 36700 125000 15600 60300 30800 25900 2660
2020-06-27 307000 1246000 60800 4470 10800 195000 12600 248000 192000 239000 49800 33200 40700 25000 62500 1183000 105000 280000 88500 479000 51700 218000 198000 267000 32600 618000 122000 192000 2440000 33100 17500 66500 199000 31400 45800 10200 11100 109000 65300 27300 4450 139000 43400 12700 14500 51200 108000 65700 65300 34500 17700 23500 59600 18100 170000 10200 15000 390000 47600 12000 7510 86900 14900 29000 6510 37200 126000 15700 60700 30800 26000 2680
2020-06-28 307000 1247000 60900 4570 10900 195000 12700 248000 192000 239000 49800 33500 40800 25000 63100 1188000 105000 283000 91500 485000 52400 219000 199000 268000 32900 622000 125000 192000 2445000 33600 17800 68000 201000 31400 45800 10200 11100 109000 65900 27600 4450 140000 43400 12800 14500 51400 108000 65900 65500 34700 17700 23700 60200 18200 170000 10300 15100 390000 47900 12200 7750 86900 15000 29600 6540 37600 126000 15700 61000 30900 26100 2700
2020-06-29 307000 1248000 60900 4640 10900 196000 12700 248000 192000 239000 49800 33600 41100 25000 63700 1194000 105000 288000 93200 487000 53000 220000 200000 270000 33200 624000 128000 193000 2457000 34300 18100 69500 202000 31500 45800 10200 11100 110000 66300 27800 4450 140000 43400 12900 14600 51400 108000 66100 65500 34900 17700 24100 61000 18200 170000 10300 15200 390000 48100 12300 7890 87000 15000 30200 6550 38000 127000 15800 61400 31100 26300 2720
2020-06-30 307000 1248000 60900 4730 10900 196000 12700 248000 192000 240000 49800 33800 41200 25000 64200 1205000 105000 295000 94300 490000 53700 221000 203000 271000 33500 628000 132000 193000 2461000 34800 18200 71900 204000 31500 45900 10300 11100 111000 66700 28000 4450 140000 43500 12900 14600 51400 108000 66200 65600 35100 17700 24400 61700 18200 170000 10400 15300 390000 48300 12300 8080 87000 15100 30600 6570 38300 128000 15900 61600 31300 26400 2730
2020-07-01 308000 1248000 60900 4800 11000 197000 12700 248000 192000 240000 49800 34000 41400 25000 64600 1210000 105000 299000 95500 495000 54400 222000 205000 273000 33600 632000 134000 193000 2461000 35300 18400 74200 206000 31500 45900 10300 11100 112000 67000 28100 4450 141000 43600 12900 14600 51400 108000 66400 65600 35200 17700 24600 62300 18200 170000 10400 15400 390000 48300 12300 8200 87000 15100 31100 6590 38500 129000 16000 61900 31400 26400 2740

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-06-22

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-1004-1203-2604-1506-1803-2503-3104-0204-0303-3004-0604-1204-0203-2704-1004-1303-2104-0906-0704-0104-1106-0303-2703-23
Peak daily increment 5769 30088 887 1447 90 282 275 5959 327 8109 173 11812 93 74 122 961 5734 1161 485 847 384 1353 295 1184
Days from 100 to peak 36 49 18 39 91 11 18 32 25 28 24 42 22 8 20 30 27 34 84 19 28 88 21 18
Days from peak/2 to peak 22 33 13 31 94 10 17 20 24 17 24 27 25 12 22 24 17 28 81 14 25 82 20 12
Last total 305289 1233926 17380 60550 3984 7903 10523 191768 12527 246504 7144 191442 3287 2336 4102 25383 238720 49658 32227 39392 24291 58932 8751 31310
Last daily increment 958 2564 39 0 79 4 25 496 136 232 1 325 21 19 8 4 221 65 296 259 246 84 6 18
Last week 7153 23195 191 395 531 77 412 3516 277 2176 32 1847 139 81 25 49 1220 571 2032 2056 1876 5609 91 156
Days since peak 73 71 88 68 4 89 83 81 80 84 77 71 81 87 73 70 93 74 15 82 72 19 87 91

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-06-22

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-RIUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-2806-1904-2206-17 -- --06-1803-30 --05-3105-2905-07 --04-1104-0906-13 -- -- --04-2404-2205-0104-26 -- --05-02 --05-0304-2705-0505-0504-0404-2405-1905-2204-0405-22 -- -- --05-2105-0105-0104-0705-02 --04-0804-20 -- --04-0805-11 --05-0906-02 -- --05-26 --05-2905-24
Peak daily increment 407 33544 1883 19035 1088 3184 6759 779 11137 4649 32602 828 615 1192 201 245 588 2691 730 298 253 1725 3073 1188 59 1650 723 83 448 100 4453 172 10062 1091 1744 747 162 755 1216 500 52
Days from 100 to peak 18 97 42 93 95 33 75 76 51 23 36 85 40 34 40 32 40 48 37 42 42 19 42 61 60 18 63 52 33 37 23 38 30 32 22 47 39 76 68 72 56
Days from peak/2 to peak 14 71 33 60 87 27 53 67 31 17 20 79 35 29 40 31 34 40 33 40 41 13 30 54 64 13 56 57 29 41 15 39 19 27 15 40 41 71 59 69 61
Last total 7492 1106470 103418 246963 71367 440215 46845 207525 185122 257447 30682 591465 101590 188897 2312302 30031 15499 54599 184765 30689 45512 10058 10803 100098 60913 26138 4254 137167 42633 12428 13818 50231 106851 64603 2969 63643 33147 16647 22329 53964 3313 17776 5555 169362 9831 13528 388488 45537 10734 7083 86576 14945 25666 6326 34696 117790 14630 58465 28834 25068 2551
Last daily increment 18 23129 340 4608 2531 14933 954 2573 4577 6109 630 7586 4288 1212 31012 433 509 2008 6219 165 30 38 48 2925 1378 180 250 464 210 292 89 461 150 297 13 238 309 109 1688 1163 25 151 13 303 129 288 552 729 218 511 641 421 1005 29 450 4846 335 471 184 249 18
Last week 122 183281 2331 62514 18156 86150 6445 15086 30259 20291 3901 46740 25256 7599 174571 3507 2704 15414 25804 1262 503 240 416 20086 6081 1964 792 3688 1847 1017 1182 2918 1330 2194 153 1643 2320 1553 2177 8057 189 914 195 2077 609 1845 3913 3527 2089 985 2598 421 5676 360 3560 24221 2265 3134 2350 1870 211
Days since peak 86 3 61 5 4 84 22 24 46 72 74 9 59 61 52 57 51 50 56 48 48 79 59 34 31 79 31 32 52 52 76 51 75 63 75 42 44 20 27 24 29

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed