COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-01-13


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-01-13

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) --11-2612-1611-0412-022021-01-0411-04 -- --11-0412-1411-1611-2912-1712-1111-1812-0111-0411-27 --11-2712-1612-04 -- --12-14
Peak daily increment 3522 112 208 142 220 207 931 6 604 101 75 164 5 723 79 492 164 65 52 98
Days since peak 48 28 70 42 9 70 70 30 58 45 27 33 56 43 70 47 47 28 40 30
Last total 84767 411073 6868 20250 8349 3157 13656 44096 1660 52878 602 68660 5354 4472 10948 2460 80326 12685 32074 8236 16969 9834 3070 3163 509 8521
Last daily increment 1564 3910 49 56 70 55 171 1207 37 195 0 229 25 26 95 63 507 122 481 156 88 167 17 61 27 51
Last week 6259 20538 300 314 332 295 1035 5109 173 1203 18 2463 208 206 623 153 3035 601 1833 764 559 572 148 446 42 343
Previous peak date04-1004-0604-0604-1506-0504-1104-0804-1604-0403-3104-2104-07 -- --04-1904-2403-2904-0404-2504-0805-0304-12 -- -- --04-06
Previous peak daily increment 985 3074 20 322 5 7 10 221 18 945 30 933 13 167 781 153 23 31 25 98 60
Low between peaks -796 0 -105 2 -2 0 -1283 0 7 0 0 6 -6 6 10 -5 -50

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-01-13

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)09-0307-2212-2707-17 --09-12 --11-1810-0507-2309-14 -- --12-23 --12-12 --12-14 -- --12-0907-1312-2610-3012-1111-032021-01-0612-1112-1111-0612-15 -- --11-1608-2012-152021-01-0812-0712-1312-15 --11-21 --12-092021-01-0705-2906-2512-13 --11-1712-07 --12-13 -- --12-03 --12-23 --09-1512-2912-08 --12-09
Peak daily increment 35 1063 128 787 1159 473 1833 2944 159 252 6 43 151 9 4 8 100 358 6 311 18 244 80 147 106 43 22 126 65 61 12 27 56 26 1568 31 58 82 23 23 190 72 84 60 7
Days since peak 132 175 17 180 123 56 100 174 121 21 32 30 35 184 18 75 33 71 7 33 33 68 29 58 146 29 5 37 31 29 53 35 6 229 202 31 57 37 31 41 21 120 15 36 35
Last total 909 205964 17404 17204 47124 151727 24951 56457 136917 38399 9699 62463 35140 23325 384764 226 5760 4186 10673 31684 5285 6533 831 994 23396 11426 309 4232 1564 19617 8790 3343 2991 8022 13349 6348 453 14187 5774 5984 5315 1069 7745 1357 1796 885 20161 2807 3596 39942 9881 2848 1708 18412 5911 1604 7951 31277 1028 5552 3834 5679 1671 522
Last daily increment 0 1274 149 22 342 198 306 97 1235 64 145 555 806 173 3959 1 187 65 191 527 43 86 6 3 169 138 3 10 8 120 59 353 47 51 86 51 4 40 50 27 31 2 107 2 12 7 122 13 50 199 79 44 41 367 51 19 126 382 11 75 49 46 37 0
Last week 0 5466 809 291 2057 1157 1431 524 5886 474 343 2835 3331 1061 19440 3 680 260 932 3118 183 247 23 45 915 554 12 167 47 676 338 357 148 294 449 239 68 459 202 296 302 31 532 16 -13 59 515 127 257 1093 419 176 140 1239 250 60 633 1779 56 277 204 202 153 33
Previous peak date -- --05-06 --08-0306-16 --03-21 -- --07-12 --07-2204-1504-13 --09-1609-1507-2208-0704-2404-2004-2906-2308-0708-2210-2105-2109-0905-1205-0210-1504-1404-1404-2504-29 --04-1405-2904-3008-2609-19 -- --05-20 --04-2205-1308-1805-1804-2904-16 --05-0507-2907-29 --07-2707-3104-2204-01 -- --09-02
Previous peak daily increment 168 328 1662 144 90 381 120 2219 98 124 79 137 72 106 11 47 175 66 6 14 20 112 98 15 10 64 459 56 137 23 17 31 5 41 321 9 18 3562 76 7 167 44 2 459 4 105 59 27
Low between peaks 4 388 54 20 16 10 2 3 0 -3 45 25 0 3 3 15 5 10 -2 5 6 5 5 2 1 51 3 6 11 1 70 9 5 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-14 to 2021-01-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-13 84767 411073 6868 20250 8349 3157 13656 44096 1660 52878 68660 5354 4472 10948 2460 80326 12685 32074 8236 16969 9834 3070 3163 509 8521
2021-01-14 85870 413100 6914 20310 8442 3205 13830 44380 1712 52890 68770 5395 4507 11050 2497 80720 12740 32290 8373 17120 9860 3098 3254 509 8646
2021-01-15 87130 416600 6957 20360 8478 3253 14010 45230 1749 53030 69200 5436 4540 11150 2526 81250 12840 32590 8505 17200 9970 3125 3348 515 8689
2021-01-16 88080 418800 7002 20420 8492 3299 14180 45760 1780 53040 69370 5475 4573 11250 2556 81640 12940 32890 8638 17270 9980 3152 3445 521 8704
2021-01-17 88790 420500 7045 20470 8516 3345 14350 46110 1816 53040 69500 5516 4606 11350 2582 81940 12980 33020 8768 17330 9980 3178 3544 528 8716
2021-01-18 89270 423600 7089 20530 8623 3391 14520 46970 1851 53380 69850 5556 4639 11450 2608 82330 13030 33100 8901 17400 9980 3205 3646 534 8830
2021-01-19 90340 428300 7132 20580 8675 3437 14690 48090 1888 53760 70620 5597 4672 11560 2634 82920 13180 33390 9035 17530 10230 3232 3751 540 8931
2021-01-20 91870 431900 7176 20640 8742 3484 14860 49210 1925 53900 70820 5637 4704 11660 2659 83390 13310 33850 9172 17620 10360 3259 3859 547 8987

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-14 to 2021-01-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-13 205964 17404 17204 47124 151727 24951 56457 136917 38399 9699 62463 35140 23325 384764 5760 4186 10673 31684 5285 6533 831 994 23396 11426 4232 1564 19617 8790 3343 2991 8022 13349 6348 453 14187 5774 5984 5315 1069 7745 885 20161 2807 3596 39942 9881 2848 1708 18412 5911 1604 7951 31277 1028 5552 3834 5679 1671 522
2021-01-14 206500 17540 17260 47410 151900 25120 56550 136900 38420 9770 63150 35770 23490 386200 5894 4225 10820 32090 5360 6554 834 999 23420 11430 4257 1594 19830 8917 3343 3007 8037 13420 6388 468 14320 5833 6030 5315 1089 7745 898 20230 2857 3611 40110 9980 2875 1708 18650 5957 1619 8033 31290 1032 5555 3852 5727 1684 538
2021-01-15 207300 17670 17320 47770 152100 25350 56630 137500 38480 9830 63640 36360 23640 389500 6018 4261 10960 32470 5394 6578 838 1004 23550 11490 4280 1597 19960 8982 3366 3015 8105 13480 6438 472 14340 5855 6054 5380 1095 7829 910 20330 2883 3655 40260 10030 2895 1714 18870 5981 1626 8110 31800 1045 5594 3894 5755 1716 538
2021-01-16 208200 17800 17380 48120 152400 25550 56720 138100 38530 9900 64140 36940 23800 392300 6155 4297 11100 32860 5433 6601 841 1009 23710 11600 4305 1601 20070 9033 3366 3051 8109 13550 6468 478 14570 5895 6080 5414 1101 7941 924 20390 2902 3695 40410 10070 2930 1739 19080 6052 1638 8189 31950 1053 5649 3894 5776 1731 538
2021-01-17 208600 17920 17420 48420 152600 25760 56800 138400 38590 9960 64650 37510 23950 393900 6284 4332 11230 33220 5446 6601 845 1013 23800 11600 4329 1605 20150 9058 3366 3074 8146 13610 6493 478 14570 5936 6089 5439 1102 8034 930 20390 2918 3714 40560 10100 2950 1744 19290 6105 1649 8265 32080 1054 5653 3894 5777 1740 538
2021-01-18 209000 18050 17460 48730 152800 25960 56880 138500 38650 10020 65180 38080 24110 395700 6416 4368 11360 33590 5446 6686 848 1018 23930 11610 4353 1617 20230 9092 3378 3093 8188 13670 6514 478 14620 5939 6092 5450 1104 8047 930 20400 2935 3740 40710 10170 2960 1752 19500 6115 1650 8342 32160 1057 5660 3905 5785 1754 541
2021-01-19 210200 18170 17490 49050 153000 26240 56970 139500 38700 10080 65720 38650 24260 400000 6552 4404 11490 33950 5473 6715 852 1023 24060 11760 4377 1627 20350 9192 3413 3116 8238 13740 6554 485 14750 5951 6270 5550 1118 8105 940 20560 2958 3783 40850 10280 2986 1798 19710 6142 1650 8419 32440 1069 5734 3981 5851 1793 569
2021-01-20 211300 18300 17510 49360 153200 26500 57050 140700 38760 10140 66180 39220 24420 403600 6691 4440 11620 34320 5524 6777 855 1028 24210 11860 4401 1636 20480 9254 3656 3154 8284 13800 6603 490 14790 6007 6302 5579 1123 8199 950 20680 2980 3832 41000 10370 3030 1825 19930 6198 1663 8496 32770 1080 5796 4028 5900 1828 569

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-14 to 2021-01-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-13 84767 411073 6868 20250 8349 3157 13656 44096 1660 52878 68660 5354 4472 10948 2460 80326 12685 32074 8236 16969 9834 3070 3163 509 8521
2021-01-14 85940 414400 6915 20300 8398 3193 13830 45070 1694 53100 68880 5386 4505 11050 2494 80790 12780 32370 8375 17070 9980 3095 3241 516 8571
2021-01-15 86850 417600 6957 20340 8446 3247 13990 45880 1725 53220 69200 5422 4537 11140 2509 81290 12870 32650 8491 17150 10070 3121 3323 519 8618
2021-01-16 87720 420100 6998 20380 8481 3300 14150 46410 1756 53290 69430 5459 4570 11240 2523 81700 12970 32920 8607 17220 10100 3148 3386 522 8647
2021-01-17 88560 422300 7039 20410 8520 3327 14300 46790 1787 53350 69630 5495 4601 11330 2536 82040 13020 33110 8721 17290 10140 3175 3476 524 8675
2021-01-18 89380 424900 7076 20450 8606 3415 14460 47590 1819 53570 69940 5532 4635 11430 2549 82390 13060 33260 8837 17360 10170 3201 3605 528 8777
2021-01-19 90300 428800 7115 20500 8671 3486 14630 48550 1852 53780 70450 5569 4671 11530 2563 82950 13200 33540 8957 17460 10300 3229 3707 531 8873
2021-01-20 91280 432100 7161 20550 8736 3544 14790 49590 1885 53880 70700 5607 4704 11620 2576 83430 13330 33900 9079 17550 10380 3256 3802 539 8953

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-14 to 2021-01-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-13 205964 17404 17204 47124 151727 24951 56457 136917 38399 9699 62463 35140 23325 384764 5760 4186 10673 31684 5285 6533 831 994 23396 11426 4232 1564 19617 8790 3343 2991 8022 13349 6348 453 14187 5774 5984 5315 1069 7745 885 20161 2807 3596 39942 9881 2848 1708 18412 5911 1604 7951 31277 1028 5552 3834 5679 1671 522
2021-01-14 207300 17560 17270 47480 151900 25180 56520 138000 38450 9781 62960 35800 23490 388600 5892 4230 10850 32300 5331 6586 835 1000 23560 11530 4259 1587 19780 8859 3455 3019 8068 13420 6391 464 14290 5815 6035 5332 1081 7836 896 20250 2835 3644 40120 9960 2884 1732 18660 5958 1620 8057 31630 1041 5604 3872 5710 1702 543
2021-01-15 208000 17680 17310 47790 152100 25380 56560 138900 38500 9812 63380 36320 23660 391200 5957 4266 10980 32720 5365 6617 837 1005 23680 11590 4283 1592 19900 8923 3491 3036 8121 13490 6434 474 14340 5840 6063 5392 1088 7911 906 20310 2862 3687 40260 10000 2904 1739 18840 5988 1628 8144 32110 1051 5639 3908 5736 1730 545
2021-01-16 208800 17810 17360 48090 152300 25540 56600 139600 38530 9844 63800 36840 23820 393500 6028 4301 11120 33150 5403 6646 840 1010 23820 11670 4304 1598 20020 8976 3527 3068 8143 13550 6468 482 14510 5881 6095 5427 1095 8026 920 20350 2885 3725 40400 10030 2936 1757 19030 6042 1639 8231 32240 1058 5684 3914 5758 1748 547
2021-01-17 209300 17940 17400 48340 152500 25700 56640 140100 38560 9874 64230 37360 23990 394700 6092 4337 11250 33390 5425 6665 843 1014 23930 11690 4324 1602 20110 9000 3564 3092 8181 13620 6498 487 14550 5922 6118 5453 1099 8117 927 20360 2907 3748 40540 10040 2958 1763 19210 6090 1649 8317 32330 1063 5702 3917 5759 1761 550
2021-01-18 209700 18070 17430 48590 152700 25890 56680 140500 38610 9905 64680 37880 24160 395700 6154 4372 11380 33680 5442 6727 846 1018 24040 11720 4345 1614 20200 9034 3604 3115 8218 13680 6527 493 14620 5927 6138 5467 1102 8131 927 20360 2929 3771 40670 10100 2971 1772 19400 6113 1655 8406 32370 1068 5723 3924 5762 1778 555
2021-01-19 210600 18220 17460 48820 152900 26100 56720 141400 38640 9936 65130 38420 24320 398300 6216 4408 11520 34080 5476 6758 849 1023 24140 11800 4373 1626 20330 9160 3650 3141 8260 13750 6565 502 14750 5940 6238 5547 1118 8160 934 20430 2954 3804 40810 10200 2991 1800 19590 6140 1660 8499 32570 1076 5771 3977 5822 1809 575
2021-01-20 211500 18360 17480 49070 153100 26280 56760 142500 38670 9968 65540 38960 24490 400900 6286 4445 11660 34470 5526 6798 852 1027 24250 11860 4396 1637 20490 9244 3722 3171 8300 13810 6609 510 14820 6004 6275 5581 1129 8233 952 20490 2986 3854 40940 10300 3037 1810 19780 6195 1669 8593 32840 1084 5809 4025 5876 1838 578

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths