COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2021-09-23


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2021-09-23

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-1911-2612-1711-032021-04-0712-282021-03-092021-01-132021-01-1511-0412-212021-03-262021-09-042021-04-282021-03-312021-01-1912-012021-01-082021-04-132021-01-282021-06-082021-01-2012-042021-04-072021-04-2112-16
Peak daily increment 1259 3528 112 202 124 55 215 857 38 927 6 619 90 44 253 56 724 99 540 279 173 139 52 105 11 95
Days since peak 247 301 280 324 169 269 198 253 251 323 276 181 19 148 176 247 296 258 163 238 107 246 293 169 155 281
Last total 135803 763978 10943 25543 20350 7040 30448 93310 2638 86185 1062 114209 14606 8554 30145 5209 130551 18144 75537 17938 35964 14813 4521 12592 850 11034
Last daily increment 182 648 10 10 99 21 2 67 4 100 0 61 31 15 2 0 63 12 14 5 113 4 5 3 0 7
Last week 820 3288 61 46 395 121 21 382 16 402 10 286 212 73 22 30 318 37 64 43 605 38 29 23 9 35
Previous peak date04-1004-0404-0604-1512-02 --11-0404-1504-0403-3104-2104-0511-2912-1912-1104-2403-2904-0411-2704-1511-2704-21 -- -- --04-02
Previous peak daily increment 964 3092 20 328 142 207 226 15 957 30 933 101 76 164 167 781 153 492 31 164 101 57
Low between peaks 8 -751 0 -106 35 97 3 0 -1351 0 7 7 10 80 0 6 -6 204 3 50 1 0

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2021-09-23

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-08-172021-04-062021-01-162021-03-292021-06-252021-06-102021-07-312021-08-262021-06-012021-04-112021-08-21 --2021-07-212021-09-042021-01-152021-04-15 --12-142021-01-152021-02-2412-092021-01-112021-02-032021-07-302021-01-212021-01-252021-01-262021-04-03 --12-1012-162021-08-202021-06-0111-1608-202021-05-272021-03-0912-072021-03-092021-09-082021-09-132021-04-092021-08-1812-0912-0305-2906-252021-05-262021-08-242021-01-1412-162021-04-07 --2021-01-132021-09-132021-08-042021-06-112021-01-192021-06-252021-03-032021-01-0212-292021-07-282021-03-122021-01-07
Peak daily increment 3 2996 147 118 654 6246 1725 632 3098 813 228 390 267 3330 14 43 154 612 151 38 5 115 178 138 48 54 148 100 41 231 155 106 480 8 126 114 64 46 14 32 27 25 25 1566 94 22 191 194 1325 211 59 4 18 336 9 326 2 80 68 128 10
Days since peak 37 170 250 178 90 105 54 28 114 165 33 64 19 251 161 283 251 211 288 255 232 55 245 241 240 173 287 281 34 114 311 399 119 198 290 198 15 10 167 36 288 294 482 455 120 30 252 281 169 253 10 50 104 247 90 204 264 268 57 195 259
Last total 1208 592964 27636 37410 126032 446050 141114 118508 274139 199156 37405 197834 86655 62524 684311 488 13798 7548 19727 68342 7456 8480 1172 1942 36973 24491 733 6483 2719 24744 14864 5924 8466 13702 18515 10289 1009 21950 8049 11016 9395 1930 16012 1595 2230 1468 27288 4735 6983 54742 21591 8715 3661 29030 11957 2116 14505 63253 1920 12463 301 7431 8774 3492 955
Last daily increment 12 648 46 31 26 0 160 317 748 48 177 802 155 217 3119 7 133 20 69 103 15 -1 1 13 0 201 12 0 32 44 28 1 44 45 23 28 2 0 24 20 42 16 71 0 0 3 24 16 35 46 0 0 11 32 44 6 62 452 13 54 0 61 20 25 0
Last week 60 3391 215 92 206 1521 976 2072 3601 265 1077 4723 703 1384 11676 19 750 136 348 561 82 20 5 29 0 738 44 82 106 197 249 56 215 284 82 96 28 129 66 233 181 53 397 10 0 12 123 60 138 212 125 276 92 218 343 15 394 1695 45 221 5 233 71 122 37
Previous peak date09-0307-2104-2907-172021-01-2206-162021-01-2711-1810-0507-182021-04-09 --2021-01-142021-04-2704-132021-01-202021-02-0209-1507-2108-0604-2404-2004-2904-2708-0711-0310-2112-1112-1005-1205-022021-01-132021-03-1804-1404-2504-292021-01-0804-1412-112021-05-182021-01-142021-02-032021-02-02 --05-20 --04-2212-162021-01-1305-1804-232021-01-2912-1505-052021-02-0112-032021-02-0507-2712-1004-2204-0904-0112-082021-01-1309-02
Previous peak daily increment 35 1065 186 785 389 1662 310 473 1724 918 223 566 354 2233 13 134 124 78 139 72 105 11 13 175 354 6 313 21 112 99 209 353 64 459 56 21 137 63 71 45 27 96 40 317 31 41 3552 43 40 23 135 94 23 113 461 9 104 11 60 60 26 27
Low between peaks 0 371 3 37 96 92 131 71 175 95 84 43 33 528 0 10 6 41 2 1 0 -1 45 32 0 6 15 8 1 7 10 -1 5 1 6 8 -11 3 1 5 1 52 -85 3 7 12 1 12 1 0 5 70 1 9 0 6 -47 4 0

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-09-23 135803 763978 10943 25543 20350 7040 30448 93310 86185 114209 14606 8554 30145 5209 130551 18144 75537 17938 35964 14813 4521 12592 11034
2021-09-24 135900 764300 10950 25550 20420 7056 30450 93310 86310 114300 14640 8564 30150 5221 130600 18150 75540 17950 36060 14830 4526 12600 11040
2021-09-25 136100 764600 10950 25550 20420 7056 30450 93310 86340 114400 14690 8567 30150 5223 130700 18150 75540 17960 36130 14840 4531 12600 11040
2021-09-26 136100 764700 10950 25560 20450 7063 30450 93310 86350 114400 14740 8574 30150 5224 130700 18150 75540 17970 36210 14840 4536 12610 11040
2021-09-27 136200 765300 10950 25570 20570 7074 30450 93370 86460 114400 14780 8581 30160 5231 130700 18160 75540 17980 36290 14850 4541 12610 11050
2021-09-28 136300 765900 10950 25570 20630 7086 30450 93420 86570 114500 14820 8589 30160 5231 130800 18170 75550 17980 36380 14860 4546 12610 11060
2021-09-29 136500 766500 10960 25580 20670 7099 30450 93510 86660 114600 14850 8598 30160 5233 130900 18170 75570 17990 36460 14870 4551 12620 11060
2021-09-30 136700 767000 10970 25590 20740 7114 30460 93570 86750 114600 14890 8607 30170 5233 130900 18180 75580 18000 36550 14870 4556 12620 11070

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-23 1208 592964 27636 37410 126032 446050 141114 118508 274139 199156 37405 197834 86655 62524 684311 13798 7548 19727 68342 7456 8480 1942 24491 733 6483 2719 24744 14864 5924 8466 13702 18515 10289 1009 21950 8049 11016 9395 1930 16012 27288 4735 6983 54742 21591 8715 3661 29030 11957 14505 63253 1920 12463 7431 8774 3492 955
2021-09-24 1217 593300 27640 37450 126100 446100 141300 118800 274600 199200 37580 198600 87090 62760 685900 14020 7573 19730 68490 7474 8494 1945 24540 739 6493 2740 24790 14880 6006 8481 13780 18530 10290 1013 22000 8053 11020 9485 1937 16090 27290 4742 6996 54770 21600 8877 3705 29050 12040 14510 63450 1920 12490 7508 8795 3499 955
2021-09-25 1219 594100 27640 37480 126100 446300 142300 119200 275100 199200 37680 199300 87330 63050 686100 14190 7605 19780 68570 7474 8494 1945 24540 739 6497 2767 24790 14880 6006 8481 13780 18530 10300 1017 22000 8053 11020 9496 1937 16090 27300 4742 6996 54790 21610 8887 3709 29070 12040 14510 63690 1920 12490 7512 8795 3499 955
2021-09-26 1224 594300 27640 37510 126100 446400 142800 119600 275800 199300 37810 200100 87430 63310 686100 14280 7633 19790 68640 7474 8494 1945 24540 739 6502 2790 24790 14880 6006 8481 13780 18530 10300 1020 22000 8053 11020 9498 1937 16090 27300 4742 6996 54810 21620 8906 3710 29070 12040 14510 63760 1920 12490 7515 8795 3499 955
2021-09-27 1230 594500 27660 37530 126100 446500 143200 119900 276200 199300 37960 200800 87530 63550 687900 14360 7658 19790 68690 7494 8494 1945 24580 743 6507 2810 24850 14910 6008 8514 13810 18540 10300 1024 22010 8053 11020 9569 1937 16190 27310 4745 7014 54840 21630 8906 3734 29070 12130 14550 63840 1921 12490 7574 8803 3513 955
2021-09-28 1236 595000 27700 37550 126100 446600 143600 120200 277000 199300 38110 201500 87760 63790 689700 14490 7683 19840 68750 7510 8506 1945 24710 747 6513 2830 24870 14980 6008 8539 13870 18540 10310 1028 22010 8068 11140 9623 1937 16230 27340 4755 7045 54870 21630 8912 3767 29130 12200 14580 64070 1932 12510 7617 8817 3521 990
2021-09-29 1243 595700 27750 37560 126100 446800 143900 120600 277800 199400 38270 202300 87860 64020 692400 14580 7707 19900 68900 7525 8513 1945 24900 751 6529 2849 24920 15050 6020 8586 14000 18550 10340 1031 22090 8081 11170 9660 1937 16340 27360 4773 7075 54900 21640 8912 3801 29180 12280 14740 64450 1940 12530 7672 8842 3545 990
2021-09-30 1251 596300 27780 37600 126200 446900 144100 120900 278400 199400 38430 203000 88030 64240 695400 14580 7731 19950 69020 7536 8514 1945 25070 757 6545 2868 24950 15080 6020 8626 14040 18570 10360 1035 22090 8099 11190 9709 1941 16420 27380 4786 7107 54930 21650 8942 3810 29230 12310 14790 64850 1951 12560 7717 8861 3562 999

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKCH
2021-09-23 135803 763978 10943 25543 20350 7040 30448 93310 86185 114209 14606 8554 30145 5209 130551 18144 75537 17938 35964 14813 4521 12592 11034
2021-09-24 136000 764600 10950 25550 20420 7055 30450 93360 86250 114300 14640 8564 30150 5215 130600 18150 75550 17950 36060 14830 4526 12600 11040
2021-09-25 136100 765000 10960 25550 20460 7067 30450 93380 86270 114300 14680 8574 30150 5218 130700 18160 75550 17950 36110 14830 4531 12600 11040
2021-09-26 136200 765300 10960 25560 20510 7081 30450 93390 86300 114400 14720 8582 30150 5224 130700 18160 75560 17960 36170 14840 4535 12600 11050
2021-09-27 136300 765900 10970 25570 20610 7096 30450 93460 86360 114400 14750 8591 30160 5229 130700 18170 75560 17970 36230 14840 4539 12610 11060
2021-09-28 136400 766400 10970 25570 20670 7114 30450 93520 86440 114500 14790 8601 30160 5231 130800 18170 75570 17970 36280 14850 4544 12610 11060
2021-09-29 136600 767000 10980 25580 20720 7129 30460 93580 86510 114500 14830 8611 30170 5240 130900 18180 75580 17980 36330 14860 4548 12620 11070
2021-09-30 136700 767500 10990 25580 20790 7145 30460 93630 86590 114600 14870 8621 30170 5244 130900 18180 75590 17980 36380 14870 4553 12620 11070

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-23 1208 592964 27636 37410 126032 446050 141114 118508 274139 199156 37405 197834 86655 62524 684311 13798 7548 19727 68342 7456 8480 1942 24491 733 6483 2719 24744 14864 5924 8466 13702 18515 10289 1009 21950 8049 11016 9395 1930 16012 27288 4735 6983 54742 21591 8715 3661 29030 11957 14505 63253 1920 12463 7431 8774 3492 955
2021-09-24 1217 593400 27680 37430 126100 446200 141400 118800 274400 199200 37570 198600 86810 62760 686400 13950 7568 19770 68450 7477 8488 1946 24620 743 6491 2745 24790 14890 5964 8503 13750 18530 10310 1014 21990 8063 11040 9435 1939 16100 27300 4748 7008 54780 21610 8750 3682 29070 12030 14560 63630 1927 12500 7497 8792 3516 957
2021-09-25 1225 594100 27690 37450 126100 446500 141800 119000 274800 199200 37740 199300 86970 62990 686700 14040 7591 19820 68520 7483 8490 1947 24670 749 6495 2764 24800 14900 5974 8521 13760 18540 10320 1017 22000 8065 11060 9441 1940 16120 27310 4753 7012 54810 21630 8769 3692 29100 12050 14590 63900 1929 12510 7499 8792 3524 958
2021-09-26 1233 594300 27700 37460 126100 446700 142000 119200 275400 199300 37910 200100 87070 63220 686700 14110 7611 19840 68580 7489 8492 1947 24710 755 6499 2782 24810 14900 5982 8540 13780 18550 10330 1021 22010 8066 11080 9447 1942 16140 27310 4759 7016 54840 21650 8793 3701 29120 12080 14610 63980 1931 12530 7499 8792 3531 960
2021-09-27 1241 594600 27730 37470 126100 447000 142300 119400 275700 199300 38090 200800 87170 63440 687900 14160 7633 19860 68630 7509 8495 1948 24810 758 6503 2799 24870 14940 5995 8581 13810 18560 10340 1025 22030 8070 11090 9507 1946 16250 27320 4767 7039 54860 21670 8799 3722 29130 12150 14660 64050 1935 12550 7534 8797 3554 962
2021-09-28 1250 595100 27770 37480 126200 447200 142500 119600 276500 199300 38270 201500 87370 63670 689000 14240 7653 19900 68690 7524 8503 1949 24940 762 6507 2816 24900 15020 6002 8611 13850 18570 10350 1028 22050 8083 11150 9565 1951 16300 27330 4776 7066 54890 21680 8806 3752 29180 12220 14710 64240 1943 12570 7567 8804 3566 988
2021-09-29 1259 595600 27810 37490 126200 447500 142600 119700 277300 199400 38450 202200 87520 63890 690400 14320 7675 19940 68830 7539 8507 1950 25080 766 6526 2833 24940 15080 6018 8644 13940 18580 10370 1033 22090 8101 11190 9611 1956 16390 27340 4789 7090 54920 21700 8897 3787 29210 12290 14790 64560 1948 12590 7601 8815 3581 989
2021-09-30 1267 596100 27830 37510 126200 447700 142800 119900 277900 199400 38630 203000 87720 64110 692200 14400 7698 19970 68970 7550 8511 1951 25220 772 6536 2849 24990 15120 6029 8682 13980 18600 10380 1036 22100 8117 11210 9672 1961 16490 27350 4799 7117 54950 21720 8936 3804 29260 12340 14840 64880 1953 12610 7641 8826 3594 991

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths