COVID-19 short-term forecasts Deaths 2022-05-13


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths in Europe 2022-05-13

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-04-062022-02-102022-04-222022-02-072021-11-082021-11-012021-12-252021-12-142022-03-042022-04-202022-04-282022-02-082022-01-312021-11-282021-12-062022-02-152022-02-012022-02-282021-12-212022-03-312021-10-292022-02-152021-11-222021-12-162022-03-172022-03-20
Peak daily increment 2213 2126 804 50 165 47 306 382 47 292 86 299 104 65 190 38 376 31 441 39 440 51 18 86 161 60
Days since peak 37 92 21 95 186 193 139 150 70 23 15 94 102 166 158 87 101 74 143 43 196 87 172 148 57 54
Last total 177252 1081300 18296 31613 37043 12757 40245 137492 6278 105444 4284 144048 29521 15920 46343 7203 165091 22313 116186 22528 65599 18897 6619 20018 3061 13781
Last daily increment 151 812 5 0 8 1 5 144 7 321 0 96 30 8 0 27 115 0 11 0 4 0 2 7 0 2
Last week 1040 3938 54 61 77 22 30 959 44 575 134 578 152 39 77 72 674 22 48 108 48 73 8 50 55 55
Previous peak date2022-02-01 --2021-12-032021-12-062021-07-05 --2021-06-08 --2021-12-212022-02-142021-12-312021-08-21 --2021-06-14 --2021-12-082021-06-082021-12-092021-06-082022-02-022021-06-292021-06-2212-052021-06-062021-12-152021-12-13
Previous peak daily increment 671 58 50 29 10 39 279 13 89 10 22 66 58 59 47 147 16 52 8 13 24
Low between peaks 84 10 17 3 -1 11 35 4 23 1 0 12 8 1 12 -2 0 0 0 3 10

Peak increase in estimated trend of Deaths 2022-05-13

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-04-012022-02-112022-04-132022-03-212021-06-272022-03-252022-03-042022-02-222022-02-032022-02-012021-08-222021-11-222022-01-062022-02-162022-05-042022-01-192022-01-282021-10-102022-05-042022-02-092022-05-032022-01-242021-02-072022-01-072022-03-182022-02-142021-09-232022-01-192021-10-012022-01-242022-04-012021-12-012022-03-172021-09-152022-01-242021-12-282022-04-122022-01-182021-12-062022-02-242022-01-312022-04-252022-05-0412-092022-04-0105-292022-01-242022-04-282022-04-132022-01-192022-01-122021-12-232022-04-122022-01-272022-02-012022-02-022022-02-232022-02-072022-01-052022-02-072022-03-032022-02-072022-01-312021-10-062021-11-30
Peak daily increment 230 885 144 9531 648 3572 300 222 499 207 222 1212 358 275 778 42 52 111 103 208 247 32 5 24 811 92 7 51 25 122 705 44 72 69 73 202 30 138 38 122 65 27 757 29 941 28 101 19 201 212 156 356 35 149 93 7 90 217 27 237 12 46 48 28 29
Days since peak 42 91 30 53 320 49 70 80 99 101 264 172 127 86 9 114 105 215 9 93 10 109 460 126 56 88 232 114 224 109 42 163 57 240 109 136 31 115 158 78 102 18 9 520 42 714 109 15 30 114 121 141 31 106 101 100 79 95 128 95 71 95 102 219 164
Last total 7769 665012 40268 57697 139821 524201 156448 141209 324465 213013 60455 369855 100744 98885 999518 1267 19628 11415 30230 90782 12513 10913 1340 2931 74060 36599 1422 9554 4933 33705 23613 8720 15734 17295 20371 14493 2335 35916 12559 18938 12454 3381 24588 2232 3449 2498 33537 7607 10798 68138 38545 14380 7560 44814 17869 2917 25678 88210 3043 20317 646 12785 14502 6893 1817
Last daily increment 51 138 90 17 0 11 10 8 0 13 3 103 114 7 393 0 5 0 0 136 1 31 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 7 6 28 0 4 10 4 3 0 12 1 0 3 0 0 0 1 8 7 0 24 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 14 0 7 0 21 2 0 0
Last week 260 651 451 68 12 137 77 44 131 80 16 619 228 48 2015 15 27 8 41 285 26 40 0 3 102 107 6 21 5 45 18 29 166 19 59 33 10 75 34 0 8 3 11 0 12 13 50 51 18 140 57 34 32 81 20 2 38 65 -1 37 6 75 38 13 3
Previous peak date2022-01-282021-06-152022-01-172021-10-072021-01-222021-06-102021-07-312021-08-262021-08-252021-07-112021-04-09 --2021-07-212021-09-042022-01-312021-10-192021-09-2109-152022-02-082021-09-132022-02-072021-09-2704-292021-07-302022-01-122021-09-202021-01-262021-10-2709-092021-09-2012-172021-08-202021-11-1911-162021-07-152021-10-132021-01-082021-06-07 --2021-12-022021-09-072021-02-032021-02-03 --05-20 -- --2021-12-172021-01-14 -- --2021-10-202021-11-152021-06-222021-09-2411-272021-12-222021-10-1312-092021-10-1204-092021-09-202021-07-282021-03-12 --
Previous peak daily increment 82 2009 162 166 387 4974 1725 630 731 548 241 390 271 2583 38 118 133 79 122 120 51 11 113 15341 123 50 26 20 38 100 41 141 149 14 17 22 29 1922 47 30 97 42 22 42 591 29 17 70 24 1778 878 9 44 13 43 68 119
Low between peaks 21 88 -220 -143 96 -82 5 22 106 26 82 17 90 369 0 7 -156 -6 54 -128 3 0 1 -556 23 0 9 1 18 3 4 19 3 3 -2 0 0 5 4 -1 -16 -5 4 3 -6 10 4 11 0 37 55 1 7 0 11 2 -116

Deaths count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-14 to 2022-05-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCH
2022-05-13 177252 1081300 18296 31613 37043 12757 40245 137492 6278 105444 4284 144048 29521 15920 46343 7203 165091 22313 116186 22528 65599 18897 20018 3061 13781
2022-05-14 177600 1082000 18660 31650 37040 12760 40250 137700 6287 105600 4332 144200 29550 15930 46360 7203 165300 22320 116200 22560 65610 18900 20020 3061 13790
2022-05-15 177700 1083000 18860 31660 37050 12780 40280 137700 6305 105700 4349 144300 29610 15930 46380 7204 165400 22320 116200 22560 65620 18900 20030 3063 13790
2022-05-16 177900 1084000 19000 31680 37060 12780 40290 138000 6319 105800 4360 144500 29650 15940 46410 7226 165500 22340 116200 22560 65630 18900 20030 3063 13790
2022-05-17 178200 1085000 19100 31700 37080 12790 40310 138200 6331 106100 4377 144600 29680 15950 46420 7233 165600 22340 116200 22600 65640 18910 20040 3063 13790
2022-05-18 178500 1085000 19160 31700 37090 12800 40320 138400 6342 106300 4402 144700 29710 15950 46470 7241 165800 22350 116300 22630 65650 18910 20040 3123 13810
2022-05-19 178700 1086000 19240 31730 37100 12800 40330 138600 6351 106300 4558 144800 29740 15960 46470 7249 165900 22350 116300 22650 65660 18970 20050 3123 13810
2022-05-20 178900 1087000 19240 31730 37110 12810 40340 138700 6360 106500 4558 144900 29770 15970 46480 7270 166000 22350 116300 22660 65670 18970 20050 3137 13820

Deaths count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-14 to 2022-05-20

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-KSUS-KYUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-NJUS-NMUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2022-05-13 7769 665012 40268 57697 524201 156448 141209 324465 213013 369855 100744 98885 999518 19628 30230 90782 12513 10913 74060 36599 9554 33705 8720 15734 20371 14493 35916 12559 33537 7607 68138 38545 14380 7560 44814 17869 25678 88210 20317 12785 14502
2022-05-14 7778 665100 40310 57730 524200 156500 141200 324500 213000 370000 100800 98890 1000000 19630 30250 90780 12530 10940 74090 36670 9554 33710 8720 15770 20370 14630 35940 12560 33540 7613 68140 38550 14440 7560 44830 17870 25680 88230 20320 12790 14520
2022-05-15 7781 665100 40320 57770 524300 156500 141200 324500 213000 370100 100800 98900 1000000 19630 30250 90780 12530 10950 74090 36670 9557 33710 8729 15780 20370 14710 35940 12560 33540 7616 68150 38550 14450 7560 44840 17870 25690 88240 20320 12790 14530
2022-05-16 7826 665200 40320 57810 524400 156500 141200 324500 213000 370200 100900 98910 1000000 19630 30260 90780 12540 10970 74090 36670 9559 33720 8734 15900 20370 14740 35950 12560 33550 7628 68160 38550 14460 7570 44840 17870 25690 88250 20330 12800 14550
2022-05-17 7878 665300 40380 57840 524400 156600 141300 324500 213100 370300 100900 98920 1001000 19640 30260 90850 12550 10990 74090 36680 9559 33730 8734 15970 20390 14770 35950 12560 33560 7638 68190 38560 14460 7574 44860 17870 25700 88260 20340 12800 14560
2022-05-18 7929 665500 40490 57880 524400 156600 141300 324500 213100 370400 101000 98930 1002000 19640 30270 90870 12560 11000 74090 36780 9574 33740 8734 16010 20400 14790 35990 12570 33570 7649 68210 38560 14460 7578 44900 17880 25700 88290 20350 12820 14570
2022-05-19 7970 665600 40640 57910 524500 156600 141300 324500 213100 370500 101000 98930 1002000 19650 30280 90890 12570 11010 74090 36780 9575 33750 8734 16030 20410 14790 36000 12570 33580 7658 68230 38560 14470 7585 44900 17880 25710 88300 20360 12820 14590
2022-05-20 8017 665700 40730 57930 524500 156600 141300 324500 213100 370600 101100 98940 1002000 19660 30280 91050 12590 11020 74090 36780 9583 33750 8768 16030 20420 14790 36010 12580 33590 7665 68250 38560 14470 7588 44910 17880 25710 88310 20370 12830 14590

Deaths count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-14 to 2022-05-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESKNOCH
2022-05-13 177252 1081300 18296 31613 37043 12757 40245 137492 6278 105444 4284 144048 29521 15920 46343 7203 165091 22313 116186 22528 65599 18897 20018 3061 13781
2022-05-14 177300 1082000 18350 31610 37050 12760 40250 137500 6286 105500 4283 144100 29550 15930 46350 7205 165200 22310 116200 22540 65600 18900 20030 3063 13780
2022-05-15 177300 1082000 18380 31620 37050 12770 40260 137500 6296 105500 4288 144100 29590 15930 46360 7206 165300 22310 116200 22550 65610 18900 20030 3070 13780
2022-05-16 177500 1083000 18410 31640 37070 12770 40270 137700 6305 105500 4292 144300 29620 15940 46380 7226 165400 22320 116200 22550 65610 18900 20040 3071 13790
2022-05-17 177800 1084000 18430 31650 37080 12780 40280 137900 6314 105800 4296 144400 29650 15950 46390 7232 165500 22330 116200 22590 65620 18900 20040 3072 13810
2022-05-18 178100 1084000 18450 31660 37090 12780 40290 138100 6323 105800 4302 144500 29680 15950 46440 7241 165600 22330 116200 22620 65630 18910 20050 3119 13820
2022-05-19 178400 1085000 18480 31710 37100 12790 40300 138300 6332 105800 4458 144600 29710 15960 46440 7249 165800 22330 116200 22640 65640 18960 20060 3120 13820
2022-05-20 178600 1086000 18500 31720 37110 12790 40310 138500 6340 106000 4463 144700 29740 15970 46450 7267 165900 22340 116200 22660 65650 18960 20060 3125 13830

Deaths count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-14 to 2022-05-20

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-ILUS-KSUS-KYUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-NJUS-NMUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-WAUS-WI
2022-05-13 7769 665012 40268 57697 524201 156448 141209 324465 213013 369855 100744 98885 999518 19628 30230 90782 12513 10913 74060 36599 9554 33705 8720 15734 20371 14493 35916 12559 33537 7607 68138 38545 14380 7560 44814 17869 25678 88210 20317 12785 14502
2022-05-14 7787 665100 40330 57720 524300 156500 141200 324500 213000 370000 100800 98890 1000000 19630 30230 90790 12510 10920 74070 36600 9553 33710 8710 15740 20370 14500 35920 12560 33540 7608 68150 38560 14390 7561 44820 17870 25680 88220 20320 12790 14510
2022-05-15 7793 665100 40340 57740 524300 156500 141200 324500 213000 370000 100800 98900 1000000 19630 30240 90790 12520 10920 74080 36610 9556 33710 8715 15740 20370 14540 35930 12560 33540 7608 68160 38570 14390 7562 44830 17870 25690 88230 20320 12790 14510
2022-05-16 7839 665100 40350 57760 524400 156500 141200 324500 213100 370100 100800 98910 1000000 19630 30250 90800 12530 10930 74090 36610 9557 33710 8717 15860 20380 14570 35940 12570 33550 7617 68180 38580 14400 7570 44830 17870 25690 88240 20320 12810 14520
2022-05-17 7892 665300 40400 57790 524400 156500 141200 324500 213100 370200 100800 98910 1000000 19640 30250 90900 12550 10930 74110 36620 9558 33720 8717 15880 20390 14600 35940 12570 33560 7627 68210 38580 14400 7574 44840 17870 25700 88250 20330 12810 14530
2022-05-18 7949 665400 40520 57830 524400 156600 141200 324600 213100 370300 100900 98920 1001000 19640 30310 90920 12560 10940 74130 36700 9576 33730 8718 15890 20400 14640 35990 12570 33570 7635 68230 38590 14400 7578 44880 17890 25710 88270 20340 12830 14540
2022-05-19 7986 665500 40670 57860 524500 156600 141300 324600 213100 370400 100900 98920 1002000 19650 30330 90980 12580 10940 74140 36720 9576 33740 8718 15900 20410 14660 35990 12580 33580 7645 68250 38600 14440 7581 44890 17900 25720 88290 20350 12830 14550
2022-05-20 8030 665600 40750 57890 524500 156600 141300 324600 213100 370500 100900 98930 1002000 19650 30350 91080 12600 10950 74160 36720 9579 33750 8759 15900 20430 14690 36000 12580 33590 7653 68260 38610 14440 7584 44900 17900 25720 88310 20360 12830 14560

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Deaths