COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-08-01


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-08-01

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-1507-2903-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-12 --07-1104-1004-1003-2403-31 --04-10 --06-0303-3104-1603-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4725 29657 810 1470 243 278 283 5662 316 8058 146 19786 84 105 1116 5649 1079 830 1337 52 49 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 38 18 38 131 15 22 25 28 27 22 43 114 20 27 30 25 28 88 18 28 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 130 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 118 23 21 20 19 23 82 21 34 18 17
Last total 303942 1444811 21212 69402 11836 10958 16699 211005 13789 288522 7443 213031 4587 5224 4526 26109 247832 54732 46346 51310 52111 80422 2171 2337 9253 35412
Last daily increment 761 4888 82 651 146 124 125 606 0 0 11 -62 110 85 21 44 295 431 658 238 1225 0 15 45 13 180
Last week 4516 53245 740 3376 1409 644 1375 4338 351 16101 50 6697 394 367 91 228 1714 1727 3281 1146 7313 1425 89 158 136 1000
Days since peak 116 121 128 108 3 126 120 127 117 124 119 111 21 113 113 130 123 113 59 123 107 128 127

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-08-01

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date -- --05-0306-0607-27 --07-0904-01 --07-27 --05-0907-1604-1407-25 --07-1607-2907-0107-2104-2404-2005-0104-2607-17 -- --07-1607-1805-12 --07-23 -- --04-24 --05-2204-06 -- -- -- --07-23 --05-0105-0104-0807-25 --03-3107-03 -- --04-0907-1605-09 --07-2007-16 --07-29 -- --04-21
Peak daily increment 1985 7346 11539 1892 2861 11379 10912 12402 4816 66879 1759 745 3555 9261 729 1012 190 197 11107 529 534 2693 461 3307 48 1624 1957 441 89 4272 286 9432 1665 1624 1815 148 9713 487 860 86
Days from 100 to peak 51 83 130 116 36 131 52 120 27 141 118 128 101 134 40 30 39 32 124 115 116 58 121 40 59 21 126 34 38 24 122 20 106 23 117 39 126 117 143 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 43 64 90 104 29 108 34 75 19 124 107 122 89 115 35 27 40 32 109 110 112 49 117 30 65 15 117 29 42 16 120 12 99 16 108 41 109 114 138 27
Last total 17269 2707877 118523 357658 306181 1750723 109936 306752 434193 407492 98232 843890 503290 231869 4620444 3136 86780 41618 177002 506613 47249 49567 12057 14656 479427 172457 2174 45288 21110 180414 67122 27592 30723 116270 117639 89365 3935 86904 55060 45767 59881 4081 124006 6602 26251 6613 181373 19531 49074 415767 92087 37706 18817 117468 90599 8867 102567 444738 32366 90801 57323 54002 6738 2769
Last daily increment -11 45392 242 1991 10673 54735 1560 2548 9556 0 12746 5429 10107 996 58406 146 1502 661 2992 6057 458 0 0 87 9611 3426 86 540 394 1646 968 228 572 0 432 1019 25 733 713 949 1134 116 1708 133 185 31 361 182 986 753 928 1250 325 681 1583 103 2310 6445 381 913 1706 1062 159 43
Last week 2334 288786 2734 11868 65386 315107 11158 15580 43677 31531 17784 32817 57857 5769 386521 611 9429 4395 14988 54325 2931 1013 277 553 56061 21080 514 2936 2932 9050 4750 2302 3644 8706 2422 5617 122 4635 4074 8392 7727 740 11069 726 1765 177 2717 1470 6231 4031 8014 6421 2059 5723 9400 472 14103 50654 2134 6234 4858 5175 849 294
Days since peak 90 56 5 23 122 5 84 16 109 7 16 3 31 11 99 103 92 97 15 16 14 81 9 99 71 117 9 92 92 115 7 123 29 114 16 84 12 16 3 102

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-02 to 2020-08-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-08-01 303942 1444811 21212 69402 11836 10958 16699 211005 13789 288522 213031 4587 5224 26109 247832 54732 46346 51310 52111 80422 35412
2020-08-02 304500 1445000 21330 69950 12000 11070 16910 211000 13830 290300 213500 4671 5351 26160 247900 55100 47360 51530 54000 80550 35580
2020-08-03 305100 1452000 21440 70460 12190 11170 17120 211000 13860 292000 214100 4746 5371 26200 248100 55420 48220 51740 55180 81090 35740
2020-08-04 305700 1458000 21550 70970 12460 11270 17330 211000 13900 293600 214900 4820 5406 26240 248300 55780 49160 51940 56540 81130 35890
2020-08-05 306400 1463000 21660 71460 12730 11370 17530 211200 13930 295100 215500 4890 5485 26270 248500 56130 50140 52150 58000 81420 36040
2020-08-06 307100 1473000 21770 71950 12990 11470 17750 211500 13970 296700 216100 4960 5567 26310 248800 56450 51120 52360 59590 81690 36190
2020-08-07 307900 1484000 21870 72440 13280 11580 17960 211900 14000 298200 216800 5030 5636 26340 249200 56760 52150 52560 61020 81950 36340
2020-08-08 308600 1487000 21980 72940 13430 11680 18170 212400 14040 299700 217400 5100 5722 26380 249400 57050 53170 52770 62730 81950 36490

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-02 to 2020-08-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-01 17269 2707877 118523 357658 306181 1750723 109936 306752 434193 407492 98232 843890 503290 231869 4620444 3136 86780 41618 177002 506613 47249 49567 12057 14656 479427 172457 2174 45288 21110 180414 67122 27592 30723 116270 117639 89365 86904 55060 45767 59881 4081 124006 6602 26251 181373 19531 49074 415767 92087 37706 18817 117468 90599 8867 102567 444738 32366 90801 57323 54002 6738 2769
2020-08-02 17400 2724000 119000 360300 316900 1835000 111200 309200 446800 411100 102800 849200 520800 232800 4685000 3316 88450 42340 179600 514500 47770 49820 12060 14750 489600 176900 2252 45920 21620 182100 68530 28110 31300 120400 118100 91200 87440 55720 46240 61630 4145 126100 6758 26400 181700 19790 50180 416400 93400 39280 19220 118000 92200 8937 104700 453500 33100 91790 58100 55790 7040 2814
2020-08-03 17560 2749000 119400 362400 327700 1904000 112800 311500 460100 414300 107800 854500 528500 233700 4740000 3435 90100 43060 182100 521600 48270 49980 12060 14840 499800 180700 2309 46240 22120 183800 70020 28660 31860 122600 118500 93000 87960 56360 47010 63450 4216 127900 6918 26540 182100 20050 51350 417100 94700 40710 19640 119100 93900 9004 106800 462200 33400 92760 58890 56810 7245 2858
2020-08-04 17700 2793000 119800 364000 338500 1983000 114400 313900 473500 417500 113200 859700 536100 234500 4802000 3554 91740 43760 184600 533500 48780 50140 12070 14940 509900 185800 2412 46470 22620 185400 71510 28880 32420 123900 118900 94700 88700 57000 48240 65300 4325 129700 7080 26690 182400 20310 52540 417800 96000 42570 20070 120100 95500 9070 108900 470900 33690 93720 59660 58100 7441 2902
2020-08-05 17860 2855000 120200 365500 349300 2062000 116500 316200 487800 420400 118900 864800 547300 235400 4869000 3671 93380 44460 187100 545700 49270 50290 12070 15020 520100 190900 2487 47090 23120 187000 73100 29380 32970 125700 119300 96200 89540 57630 49700 67220 4488 131400 7247 26830 182700 20570 53800 418400 97300 44170 20510 120900 97100 9134 111000 479600 33980 94670 60450 59390 7643 2945
2020-08-06 18010 2908000 120600 367600 360300 2145000 118300 318500 502400 423400 124900 869900 558700 236300 4935000 3777 95020 45170 189600 554200 49770 50440 12080 15110 530300 196500 2624 47730 23620 188500 74710 29730 33510 127500 119600 97900 90290 58250 51380 69200 4611 133400 7418 26980 183000 20830 55090 419000 98500 45890 20970 121700 98700 9199 113100 488300 34390 95630 61240 60860 7871 2989
2020-08-07 18170 2960000 121100 369800 371500 2235000 120200 320800 517600 426400 131300 875100 570100 237100 5001000 3901 96680 45880 192100 561800 50270 50590 12080 15200 540700 202200 2749 48260 24130 190100 76370 30210 34070 129300 120000 99900 91040 58890 52490 71240 4765 135300 7593 27120 183300 21090 56410 419700 99800 47400 21440 122700 100300 9264 115200 497200 34810 96590 62040 62220 8172 3033
2020-08-08 18330 3001000 121500 371700 382800 2320000 121800 323100 533100 429500 138000 880300 581400 238000 5058000 4054 98360 46600 194600 567600 50770 50750 12090 15290 551100 208100 2853 48750 24650 191700 78060 30490 34620 129400 120400 102000 91700 59520 53990 73330 4905 137100 7772 27270 183700 21360 57770 420300 101100 49040 21910 123400 102000 9329 117300 506100 35220 97560 62840 63770 8400 3077

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-02 to 2020-08-08

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSECH
2020-08-01 303942 1444811 21212 69402 11836 10958 16699 211005 13789 288522 213031 4587 5224 26109 247832 54732 46346 51310 52111 80422 35412
2020-08-02 304300 1448000 21320 69650 11960 11040 16840 211100 13820 289600 213300 4598 5273 26130 247800 54820 47170 51450 53580 80480 35490
2020-08-03 304900 1453000 21420 69980 12160 11120 17030 211200 13850 291400 213600 4608 5314 26150 247900 55010 48070 51610 55070 80750 35600
2020-08-04 305400 1458000 21520 70350 12410 11200 17250 211400 13890 293000 214000 4635 5363 26170 248000 55230 49050 51770 56740 80770 35710
2020-08-05 306000 1462000 21630 70780 12680 11340 17470 211700 13930 294600 214500 4662 5434 26200 248100 55480 50040 51940 58490 80910 35830
2020-08-06 306600 1467000 21740 71230 12940 11450 17680 212000 13960 296300 215000 4694 5512 26220 248200 55730 51050 52100 60320 81090 35950
2020-08-07 307200 1473000 21850 71690 13230 11570 17910 212200 14000 298100 215500 4732 5589 26240 248400 55980 52120 52260 62190 81260 36070
2020-08-08 307800 1476000 21950 72150 13450 11690 18110 212500 14040 299500 216000 4772 5671 26270 248500 56210 53230 52430 64350 81290 36190

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-02 to 2020-08-08

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-01 17269 2707877 118523 357658 306181 1750723 109936 306752 434193 407492 98232 843890 503290 231869 4620444 3136 86780 41618 177002 506613 47249 49567 12057 14656 479427 172457 2174 45288 21110 180414 67122 27592 30723 116270 117639 89365 86904 55060 45767 59881 4081 124006 6602 26251 181373 19531 49074 415767 92087 37706 18817 117468 90599 8867 102567 444738 32366 90801 57323 54002 6738 2769
2020-08-02 17590 2724000 118800 359600 315800 1819000 111300 308300 443800 409900 100100 847300 512800 232600 4667000 3236 88020 42320 178300 511100 47710 49670 12090 14750 488500 176000 2205 45680 21560 181500 68350 27870 31240 118600 117800 90700 87430 55630 46990 61490 4155 125400 6748 26430 181600 19750 50340 416300 93000 38860 19240 118100 92100 8914 104200 448000 32670 91720 57870 55230 6864 2809
2020-08-03 17920 2746000 119200 361600 326100 1887000 112900 310200 454900 413600 101900 851000 521600 233400 4713000 3352 89620 43030 180300 517000 48120 49780 12150 14840 498000 180100 2258 46070 22030 182800 69770 28350 31840 120900 118000 92700 88020 56300 48550 63450 4240 127200 6911 26690 181900 20010 51760 417000 94100 40160 19710 119100 93500 8972 106400 454200 33000 92750 58570 56380 7002 2857
2020-08-04 18210 2790000 119500 363200 336500 1963000 114600 312000 468000 416900 104400 854700 530200 234300 4766000 3469 91050 43770 182600 527400 48680 49890 12210 14940 507400 185500 2334 46420 22510 184200 71280 28660 32450 122700 118200 94600 88700 56970 50300 65460 4350 129000 7076 26960 182300 20270 53290 417600 95300 41590 20210 120100 95100 9036 108600 462100 33330 93770 59290 57720 7145 2907
2020-08-05 18710 2855000 119800 364600 347100 2043000 116600 313900 480600 420300 107600 858400 540700 235100 4825000 3588 92520 44510 184900 537900 49190 50010 12270 15030 517100 190900 2424 46960 23000 185600 72890 29120 33060 124800 118400 96400 89470 57640 52240 67540 4501 130700 7236 27220 182600 20550 54770 418200 96600 43000 20700 121000 96700 9121 110700 472500 33650 94800 59970 59060 7306 2954
2020-08-06 19110 2908000 120100 366300 358000 2126000 118500 315600 494400 423300 111000 862000 551800 236000 4883000 3708 94350 45280 187200 545600 49680 50130 12310 15130 527100 196800 2526 47510 23500 187000 74470 29510 33680 127100 118600 98200 90210 58310 54180 69680 4632 132700 7398 27490 182900 20830 56460 418900 98000 44450 21230 121800 98300 9180 113000 483500 34070 95840 60710 60540 7480 3004
2020-08-07 19400 2957000 120400 368500 369300 2217000 120300 317300 509000 426800 114500 865200 563600 236800 4943000 3838 96160 46060 189500 552700 50280 50250 12360 15220 537800 202900 2627 48050 24010 188600 76150 30010 34320 129300 118800 100400 90920 59000 56070 71890 4774 134900 7592 27760 183300 21120 58110 419500 99400 45900 21790 122700 100000 9251 115400 493000 34530 96890 61370 62130 7680 3056
2020-08-08 19780 3003000 120700 370400 380800 2307000 122000 318900 523600 430000 119000 868300 575500 237700 4994000 3973 97970 46840 191900 558500 50870 50380 12420 15320 548900 209200 2718 48530 24530 190000 77940 30430 34960 130600 119000 102900 91520 59700 58170 74180 4931 136900 7796 28040 183600 21410 59940 420100 100700 47450 22370 123500 101600 9328 117600 502200 34990 97950 62240 63750 7863 3106

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-08-02 to 2020-08-10

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSECHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-01 303942 1444811 21212 69402 11836 10958 16699 211005 13789 288522 213031 4587 5224 26109 247832 54732 46346 51310 52111 80422 35412 17269 2707877 118523 357658 306181 1750723 109936 306752 434193 407492 98232 843890 503290 231869 4620444 3136 86780 41618 177002 506613 47249 49567 12057 14656 479427 172457 2174 45288 21110 180414 67122 27592 30723 116270 117639 89365 86904 55060 45767 59881 4081 124006 6602 26251 181373 19531 49074 415767 92087 37706 18817 117468 90599 8867 102567 444738 32366 90801 57323 54002 6738 2769
2020-08-02 304500 1448000 21320 69900 12110 11050 16910 211600 13840 290200 214000 4623 5282 26150 248000 54920 47310 51480 53710 80640 35550 17900 2750000 118800 359400 317200 1803000 111400 313200 441700 415600 98230 846600 512300 232800 4722000 3240 88730 42530 178400 515500 47800 49730 12150 14760 488700 176700 2231 46140 21540 181300 68520 28160 31440 121300 117900 91200 87490 56180 47250 61900 4161 125500 6770 26580 181700 19890 50400 416400 93190 38670 19310 118400 92100 8899 104700 452100 32710 92700 58170 55280 6878 2820
2020-08-03 305100 1452000 21450 70630 12360 11150 17110 212300 13870 291800 214900 4673 5338 26190 248100 55230 48310 51640 55260 80730 35760 18250 2808000 119000 360900 330300 1867000 112700 317000 450200 423800 98230 851900 521200 233800 4786000 3343 90340 43340 180100 522700 48320 49890 12170 14870 496700 180300 2296 46820 21940 182400 69690 28490 32000 123500 118300 93000 88100 56940 48410 63610 4293 127000 6915 26930 181900 20260 51600 417100 94260 39720 19750 119200 93400 8968 106300 459300 33100 94010 58810 56400 7007 2873
2020-08-04 306000 1457000 21550 71100 12610 11230 17320 212900 13900 293200 215300 4730 5390 26230 248300 55450 48870 51730 56580 80830 35950 18660 2852000 119300 362600 340500 1924000 114100 318900 457500 428400 99310 857100 529200 234700 4852000 3437 92020 44180 181700 529300 48830 50050 12220 14960 504600 183600 2369 47240 22320 183000 70680 28830 32570 125600 118700 94500 88710 57520 49840 64990 4386 128600 7061 27240 182300 20530 52540 417800 95190 40570 20200 120200 94700 9034 108500 465300 33380 94710 59570 57450 7135 2927
2020-08-05 306800 1461000 21650 71640 12840 11290 17490 213500 13910 294900 216300 4762 5440 26270 248400 55610 49520 51830 57990 80900 36110 19020 2895000 119500 364000 347500 1968000 115400 321600 464800 434800 99310 862100 537200 235700 4906000 3517 93520 44930 183100 536200 49410 50220 12270 15040 511800 186900 2425 47580 22660 183400 71470 29090 33110 127200 119000 95800 89270 58170 50910 66690 4489 129700 7192 27560 182600 20800 53590 418400 96010 41330 20640 120900 96000 9089 110300 472200 33690 95650 60330 58490 7250 2980
2020-08-06 307500 1462000 21730 72190 13050 11340 17700 213900 13920 296000 217000 4768 5480 26310 248500 55720 50070 51970 59240 80970 36230 19310 2940000 119700 365300 360500 2017000 116500 322200 471700 434800 99310 866400 544200 236700 4940000 3592 95050 45680 184500 541100 49900 50400 12290 15120 518800 190400 2505 47760 22990 183600 71850 29390 33790 128200 119400 96500 89800 58600 52350 68040 4599 131000 7276 27870 182900 21030 54390 418900 96810 42310 21040 121800 97200 9143 112100 478900 33940 96240 60750 59420 7373 3036
2020-08-07 308100 1464000 21810 72720 13270 11370 17850 214100 13930 296600 217600 4771 5516 26330 248500 55750 50830 52080 60390 81020 36260 19480 2973000 119800 366500 369100 2054000 117500 322700 477100 437300 99310 870900 550600 237700 4981000 3670 96380 46210 185800 546800 50400 50550 12310 15200 525900 193200 2574 48010 23280 183700 72490 29670 34250 129800 119700 98200 90210 59180 53410 69170 4694 132000 7387 28090 183200 21230 55280 419400 97600 43220 21400 122400 98300 9190 113800 484900 34190 96860 60930 60330 7467 3090
2020-08-08 308600 1465000 21870 73160 13490 11410 18000 214200 13930 297000 218200 4777 5553 26330 248600 55750 51460 52260 61520 81080 36300 19830 3011000 119900 367600 376600 2091000 118400 323900 483300 440700 99310 873100 557300 238700 5003000 3755 97550 46900 186800 551600 50890 50700 12320 15280 531700 195800 2629 48090 23550 183900 73020 29930 34770 131100 120000 99300 90600 59330 54600 70330 4795 132800 7491 28240 183300 21430 55970 420000 98390 44130 21770 123000 99400 9221 115300 490200 34450 97530 61070 61150 7571 3145
2020-08-09 308900 1466000 21910 73350 13700 11490 18070 214400 13930 297000 218500 4793 5601 26330 248700 55750 52080 52430 62670 81110 36320 20030 3052000 120100 368600 387400 2133000 119300 323900 489000 445400 99310 874200 564000 239600 5047000 3824 98810 47640 188000 557500 51410 50870 12320 15360 537400 198900 2677 48470 23790 183900 73340 30150 35200 133000 120200 100200 90810 59350 55490 71510 4889 133900 7597 28370 183400 21590 56890 420300 98910 45010 22110 123100 100500 9249 116900 494700 34700 98580 61510 62040 7679 3200
2020-08-10 309100 1466000 21960 73520 13880 11560 18120 214700 13930 297000 218600 4794 5637 26330 248700 55750 52620 52580 63470 81140 36360 20180 3077000 120200 369300 394400 2176000 120100 323900 493700 448000 99310 875300 569300 240300 5058000 3892 99830 48240 188800 561600 51840 51030 12320 15420 543100 200900 2737 48590 24030 183900 73520 30320 35700 134400 120400 101200 91130 59510 56390 72420 4977 134700 7685 28430 183400 21780 57440 420800 99410 45720 22440 123400 101500 9274 118000 500900 34970 98920 61540 62700 7753 3253

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed