COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-07-04


Gnereal information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-07-04

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-15 --03-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-1204-21 --04-1004-1003-2403-3106-0804-10 --06-0303-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4724 29658 810 1470 278 283 5661 316 8057 146 19785 86 105 1116 5650 1079 423 830 1318 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 37 18 38 15 22 25 28 26 22 42 40 20 27 30 25 85 28 89 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 44 23 21 20 19 82 23 82 18 17
Last total 284900 1283345 18165 61838 5677 8300 12440 197198 12832 250545 7248 195546 3511 3094 4174 25509 241419 50335 35719 43569 28582 71419 8926 32198
Last daily increment 624 2191 115 111 180 34 121 418 0 0 6 -358 25 86 2 11 235 0 314 413 416 0 5 97
Last week 2197 25160 511 543 986 256 837 2505 157 1775 50 3117 135 403 32 70 1109 188 1812 1923 2269 6282 71 581
Days since peak 88 93 100 80 98 92 99 89 96 91 83 74 85 85 102 95 26 85 31 100 99

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-07-04

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
Peak date03-28 --05-0306-17 -- -- --06-04 --05-30 --05-09 --04-14 -- -- -- -- --04-2404-2005-0104-26 -- --05-01 --05-1205-01 -- -- --04-2405-0605-2204-0605-24 --06-22 --04-1805-0105-0104-08 -- --03-31 -- -- --04-09 --05-09 -- -- --05-26 -- -- --
Peak daily increment 359 1984 31260 2895 5882 10907 4816 729 1012 190 197 512 2692 668 3307 1017 48 1624 673 1161 94 441 89 4272 9432 1624 148 1076
Days from 100 to peak 18 51 93 100 72 52 27 40 30 39 32 39 58 41 40 48 59 21 65 93 19 33 38 24 20 23 39 68
Days from peak/2 to peak 15 43 48 93 53 34 19 35 27 40 32 34 49 37 30 41 65 15 58 86 23 29 41 16 12 16 41 60
Last total 8443 1577004 107185 291847 109793 673165 62142 237878 252165 299080 41830 673564 187977 204610 2839436 42359 22322 94567 252895 33849 46504 10447 11923 189851 86271 31045 7369 146565 47432 15911 16372 63282 109479 69341 3394 68201 37548 20942 30674 71670 3779 19661 5871 172354 12138 21575 396598 56183 15648 9930 93922 43386 7028 48341 192153 19808 65109 35162 31055 3205
Last daily increment 183 37923 223 3758 3401 24850 1447 2449 6914 3481 1494 6623 10853 1154 45283 997 483 2695 2381 254 0 12 69 11444 3184 589 377 861 517 252 0 0 211 380 26 395 0 383 990 1408 57 161 16 270 286 857 726 926 579 294 530 1854 50 1275 6562 512 716 501 738 79
Last week 679 232861 1992 19865 17798 124847 8132 15209 35313 19661 6375 40001 49843 7371 290142 7395 3216 20648 37408 1559 452 199 727 48919 15850 2531 2048 4871 2502 2064 1142 7057 1162 2564 208 2643 2081 2438 4782 9422 284 935 126 1823 1228 4415 4059 5874 2701 1589 4059 10066 347 9181 42001 2705 3373 3461 3312 373
Days since peak 98 62 17 30 35 56 81 71 75 64 69 64 53 64 71 59 43 89 41 12 77 64 64 87 95 86 56 39

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-05 to 2020-07-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRHRITPLPTROSECH
2020-07-04 284900 1283345 18165 61838 5677 8300 12440 197198 250545 195546 3094 241419 35719 43569 28582 71419 32198
2020-07-05 285300 1288000 18250 61930 5677 8338 12610 197600 251000 196000 3197 241800 36000 43900 29230 72430 32300
2020-07-06 285800 1291000 18340 62010 5827 8374 12780 198000 251300 196300 3301 241900 36270 44230 29810 74080 32400
2020-07-07 286100 1295000 18420 62090 6023 8410 12950 198300 251700 196600 3408 242100 36540 44550 30460 75040 32490
2020-07-08 286300 1299000 18500 62170 6216 8446 13110 198600 252000 197000 3519 242300 36800 44870 31170 76210 32580
2020-07-09 286500 1302000 18570 62260 6437 8481 13280 199100 252300 197300 3632 242600 37060 45190 31910 77280 32670
2020-07-10 286900 1306000 18650 62340 6645 8517 13450 199500 252600 197700 3750 242800 37320 45500 32670 78240 32760
2020-07-11 287400 1310000 18730 62420 6891 8552 13620 199800 252900 198000 3872 243000 37590 45830 33470 78390 32850

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-07-05 to 2020-07-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-04 8443 1577004 107185 291847 109793 673165 62142 237878 252165 299080 41830 673564 187977 204610 2839436 42359 22322 94567 252895 33849 46504 11923 189851 86271 31045 7369 146565 47432 15911 16372 63282 109479 69341 3394 68201 37548 20942 30674 71670 3779 19661 172354 12138 21575 396598 56183 15648 9930 93922 43386 7028 48341 192153 19808 65109 35162 31055 3205
2020-07-05 8596 1635000 107500 292900 119100 703000 63820 240400 261000 301700 43100 680100 198600 205800 2914000 43750 22850 99000 264600 34180 46580 11950 201400 88600 31400 7930 147300 47620 16100 16850 66970 109800 69720 3425 68320 37880 21150 31170 73650 3816 19810 172600 12600 22480 397200 57590 16290 10230 93920 45540 7083 49180 198500 20450 65650 35750 32070 3278
2020-07-06 8734 1685000 107800 294500 121900 731900 65660 242800 270400 304300 44400 686500 208900 207100 2993000 45180 23370 101900 276100 34500 46660 11980 213600 91000 31740 8400 148000 47930 16620 17240 69560 109900 70070 3455 68620 38210 21660 32040 75590 3849 19960 172900 12990 23400 397900 58810 16630 10540 94480 47470 7137 51520 205700 21130 66170 36360 32810 3350
2020-07-07 8880 1751000 108100 296300 125300 761700 67730 245200 279900 306900 45760 692900 219100 208300 3072000 46660 23890 107500 287800 34810 46740 12010 226300 95700 32090 8900 148600 48270 16930 17630 72370 110000 70440 3485 69040 38550 22190 32860 77240 3884 20100 173100 13350 24360 398500 60160 17290 10880 95120 49640 7192 53700 213000 21820 66680 37180 33760 3414
2020-07-08 9018 1831000 108400 298200 128400 793400 70040 247600 290000 309500 47170 699100 231500 209500 3157000 48200 24400 112700 298900 35120 46810 12030 239600 99600 32430 9410 149300 48570 17520 18040 76170 110100 70790 3515 69350 38890 22340 33630 79500 3916 20250 173400 13810 25340 399100 61610 17880 11220 95640 51810 7246 56130 221300 22540 67180 37860 34780 3515
2020-07-09 9156 1913000 108700 300100 133800 827200 72490 250000 300500 312200 48610 705400 244500 210700 3245000 49790 24920 117400 311200 35420 46890 12060 253800 103200 32770 9960 150000 49010 17830 18450 79000 110400 71140 3544 69720 39230 22940 34520 81030 3949 20390 173700 14280 26360 399700 63210 18410 11580 96270 54400 7300 58660 228800 23280 67690 38850 35770 3620
2020-07-10 9295 1999000 109000 301900 139800 863600 74790 252400 311400 314800 50110 711800 258000 211900 3334000 51430 25450 122900 319800 35730 46960 12080 268800 107700 33120 10530 150600 49480 18580 18880 82570 110600 71490 3574 70120 39580 23440 35430 83560 3982 20540 173900 14770 27420 400300 64940 19080 11940 97020 56940 7354 61610 236100 24050 68190 39700 36770 3718
2020-07-11 9434 2079000 109300 303800 145400 904500 77160 254900 322700 317400 51640 718200 273300 213100 3425000 53130 25980 125700 328100 36040 47040 12110 284700 111900 33460 11140 151300 49930 19050 19320 82680 110900 71850 3604 70470 39930 24100 36200 86170 4015 20680 174200 15160 28510 400900 66690 19810 12320 97490 59520 7409 63220 243100 24850 68700 40590 37870 3818

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-05 to 2020-07-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRHRITPLPTROSECH
2020-07-04 284900 1283345 18165 61838 5677 8300 12440 197198 250545 195546 3094 241419 35719 43569 28582 71419 32198
2020-07-05 285100 1286000 18190 61880 5712 8319 12620 197400 250800 195600 3174 241500 35890 43800 29130 71480 32260
2020-07-06 285500 1288000 18230 61950 5871 8343 12790 197500 251200 195900 3273 241600 36120 44120 29730 72820 32330
2020-07-07 285800 1291000 18260 62030 6076 8375 12950 197700 251500 196200 3373 241600 36370 44440 30430 73590 32400
2020-07-08 286000 1293000 18320 62110 6284 8407 13090 197900 251800 196400 3463 241800 36630 44750 31140 74530 32470
2020-07-09 286200 1296000 18370 62190 6512 8440 13240 198200 252100 196600 3563 241900 36880 45070 31910 75430 32540
2020-07-10 286600 1298000 18420 62270 6704 8468 13420 198400 252500 196900 3669 242000 37100 45390 32710 76420 32610
2020-07-11 286900 1300000 18470 62340 6901 8505 13610 198700 252800 197100 3778 242100 37360 45710 33520 76720 32690

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-07-05 to 2020-07-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-04 8443 1577004 107185 291847 109793 673165 62142 237878 252165 299080 41830 673564 187977 204610 2839436 42359 22322 94567 252895 33849 46504 11923 189851 86271 31045 7369 146565 47432 15911 16372 63282 109479 69341 3394 68201 37548 20942 30674 71670 3779 19661 172354 12138 21575 396598 56183 15648 9930 93922 43386 7028 48341 192153 19808 65109 35162 31055 3205
2020-07-05 8487 1618000 107400 293600 115100 700700 63690 240100 259700 301000 42800 678100 195900 205800 2907000 43160 22820 97200 259400 34070 46550 11970 198100 87900 31270 7690 147000 47560 16240 16660 64800 109600 69480 3424 68390 37840 21390 30830 73570 3793 19750 172500 12410 22330 396900 57290 16180 10210 94130 45150 7071 49460 197200 20320 65450 35800 31770 3279
2020-07-06 8534 1668000 107600 296500 119700 730400 65430 242400 267900 303500 44140 683900 205900 207000 2997000 44790 23370 100200 270600 34300 46630 12030 209200 90400 31600 8080 147700 47860 16760 17050 66520 109700 69800 3455 68690 38200 22000 31330 75770 3812 19890 172700 12700 23280 397500 58630 16700 10510 94580 47040 7120 51250 204800 20920 65980 36550 32510 3353
2020-07-07 8586 1738000 107900 299500 124600 761200 67420 244600 277600 306400 45560 689700 216200 208300 3091000 46080 23930 104600 282100 34530 46700 12090 220800 94800 31980 8480 148400 48210 17190 17450 68450 109800 70120 3488 69040 38570 22630 32000 77880 3842 20030 172900 13010 24210 398100 60200 17310 10820 95190 49110 7172 53060 212400 21540 66520 37420 33380 3423
2020-07-08 8644 1815000 108100 302500 129600 793600 69580 246800 287700 309400 46970 695400 227500 209500 3193000 47490 24510 109100 292800 34790 46770 12170 233100 98700 32350 8920 149000 48550 17760 17860 71020 109900 70470 3522 69390 38940 23130 32670 80410 3876 20170 173100 13330 25170 398700 61890 17920 11160 95730 51240 7242 55040 221800 22200 67060 38220 34330 3516
2020-07-09 8705 1894000 108300 305400 135300 828100 71880 249100 298900 312400 48310 701200 239300 210700 3295000 49170 25120 113100 304200 35050 46840 12240 246000 102300 32740 9390 149700 48910 18240 18280 72770 110000 70840 3554 69780 39310 23780 33430 82540 3909 20310 173300 13690 26110 399200 63650 18540 11540 96280 53500 7300 56990 230300 22880 67600 39160 35210 3612
2020-07-10 8761 1988000 108500 308100 141600 865800 74070 251300 310000 315400 49950 706500 251800 212000 3402000 50880 25750 117600 313400 35320 46920 12320 259700 106400 33130 9880 150400 49280 18830 18720 74960 110200 71190 3590 70140 39690 24440 34140 85620 3940 20460 173500 14080 27090 399800 65530 19210 11930 96860 55960 7364 59200 238900 23630 68150 40050 36060 3705
2020-07-11 8836 2070000 108700 312700 147900 906800 76370 253500 320700 318600 51550 711700 265100 213200 3509000 52400 26370 121700 323200 35570 46990 12400 274100 109900 33520 10410 151000 49640 19360 19160 76350 110300 71530 3626 70510 40070 25160 34760 88740 3975 20610 173800 14420 28410 400400 67460 19910 12320 97340 58550 7431 60920 247900 24350 68710 40980 37080 3800

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-07-05 to 2020-07-13

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEESFRHRITPLPTROSECHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2020-07-04 284900 1283345 18165 61838 5677 8300 12440 197198 250545 195546 3094 241419 35719 43569 28582 71419 32198 8443 1577004 107185 291847 109793 673165 62142 237878 252165 299080 41830 673564 187977 204610 2839436 42359 22322 94567 252895 33849 46504 11923 189851 86271 31045 7369 146565 47432 15911 16372 63282 109479 69341 3394 68201 37548 20942 30674 71670 3779 19661 172354 12138 21575 396598 56183 15648 9930 93922 43386 7028 48341 192153 19808 65109 35162 31055 3205
2020-07-05 284900 1287000 18230 61840 5781 8348 12700 197700 250900 195800 3206 241500 36360 43850 29300 72850 32280 8493 1618000 107400 294300 113900 690300 63630 240200 258200 301300 42530 677000 194500 205700 2901000 43090 22830 97800 262300 34110 46610 12010 197400 87950 31180 7644 147000 47490 16290 16810 65550 109600 69570 3417 68570 37980 21430 31350 73390 3779 19750 172600 12350 22260 397200 57260 16150 10140 94430 44670 7065 49320 199000 20240 65370 36010 31800 3278
2020-07-06 284900 1290000 18340 61890 5888 8396 12870 198200 251300 196100 3275 241600 36880 44180 29670 73470 32390 8629 1647000 107600 296600 116200 704000 64550 242300 262100 303600 43210 682000 202700 206500 2946000 43910 23230 100600 265700 34370 46650 12090 205900 89440 31560 7918 147600 47790 16600 17060 66600 109700 69830 3441 69080 38280 21870 32150 74660 3810 19850 172800 12570 22610 397900 58350 16520 10310 94950 45430 7107 50210 203700 20530 65840 36540 32280 3317
2020-07-07 285000 1293000 18440 61910 5978 8449 13020 198600 251700 196300 3355 241700 37480 44480 30070 74070 32490 8808 1670000 107800 298400 118800 718200 65490 244400 265300 305600 44040 686200 213000 207200 2992000 44680 23710 103100 270500 34600 46690 12130 217200 90910 31840 8158 148200 48030 16950 17360 67820 109800 70070 3463 69640 38570 22240 32870 75650 3842 19940 173100 12790 23090 398700 59490 16820 10450 95530 46470 7144 50850 207900 20890 66160 37060 32780 3371
2020-07-08 285100 1296000 18550 61930 6060 8501 13160 199000 252000 196600 3474 241900 37540 44790 30380 74830 32570 8954 1691000 107900 299600 120700 728400 66020 246100 268200 307800 44710 690300 220600 207600 3032000 45310 24080 105200 274100 34720 46710 12200 227600 91750 32140 8372 148800 48270 17170 17480 68780 109900 70320 3482 70180 38780 22380 33580 76560 3863 20020 173400 12910 23380 399300 60740 17060 10550 96090 47180 7186 51340 211700 21160 66500 37330 33420 3395
2020-07-09 285100 1298000 18650 61950 6125 8565 13310 199300 252100 196800 3571 242000 37810 45030 30610 75230 32670 9150 1710000 108100 300400 121500 736000 66720 247900 269100 309900 44840 693600 228400 207700 3068000 45970 24420 107500 274900 34850 46720 12240 237100 92300 32330 8511 149300 48490 17380 17530 69250 110000 70520 3499 70740 38950 22810 34450 76850 3875 20090 173700 13160 23570 399900 61470 17210 10640 96610 47720 7224 51390 214900 21400 66830 37670 33930 3413
2020-07-10 285100 1300000 18740 61980 6191 8620 13450 199700 252300 197000 3662 242100 37810 45270 31150 75790 32750 9334 1727000 108100 301400 122200 741600 66990 249300 270500 311700 45150 696900 235700 207700 3084000 46770 24700 110000 276300 34880 46730 12240 244600 92470 32450 8674 149800 48610 17550 17710 69300 110100 70690 3519 71260 39170 23250 35230 77050 3883 20120 174000 13320 23630 400400 62190 17360 10730 97250 48230 7256 51660 217000 21630 67120 38090 34110 3425
2020-07-11 285100 1301000 18830 62010 6240 8676 13560 200100 252500 197100 3794 242200 37810 45440 31240 76250 32790 9525 1741000 108200 302200 123500 750200 68280 250700 271800 312900 45490 699500 242600 207700 3115000 47290 25020 113000 277400 34920 46730 12260 255200 92890 32590 8779 150200 48690 17710 17790 69530 110200 70810 3531 71670 39360 23250 36010 77280 3895 20140 174300 13390 23800 400900 62910 17500 10750 97910 48920 7285 51920 219000 21760 67360 38460 34290 3438
2020-07-12 285100 1302000 18940 62030 6308 8732 13640 200500 252600 197200 3918 242300 37810 45630 31340 76640 32820 9717 1752000 108300 303400 125200 759400 68320 252000 273600 313900 45850 701200 247800 207700 3134000 47810 25330 114100 280800 34920 46740 12280 262700 93650 32740 8882 150400 48720 17950 17910 70020 110200 70920 3543 72130 39520 23250 36930 77850 3907 20140 174600 13460 24070 401300 63780 17770 10860 98530 49610 7313 52310 222200 21930 67580 38670 34290 3469
2020-07-13 285100 1303000 19030 62030 6359 8758 13750 200900 252700 197300 3996 242400 37810 45770 31340 76920 32830 9898 1764000 108400 303400 126300 765000 68650 253100 275800 314800 46140 704200 254400 207700 3134000 48580 25450 115800 282600 34920 46740 12310 267700 93900 32750 9025 150400 48740 18120 17980 70130 110200 70960 3555 72500 39660 23250 37590 78150 3916 20140 174800 13500 24180 401700 63890 17960 10960 99010 50040 7337 52510 225000 22130 67770 38750 34340 3474

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed