COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-04-06


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2022-04-06

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-312022-01-272022-03-172022-01-242022-01-252022-02-052022-01-272022-03-312022-01-282022-01-172022-01-112022-03-302022-01-042022-01-182022-01-242022-03-212022-01-122022-02-072022-01-282022-03-252022-02-012022-01-252022-02-022022-02-102022-02-012022-01-24
Peak daily increment 711180 1226244 43507 49623 8686 19196 35043 311602 44590 139098 8391 143117 34255 8554 16049 6832 181768 321028 46977 17730 29129 41686 14275 22199 20182 36135
Days since peak 65 69 20 72 71 60 69 6 68 79 85 7 92 78 72 16 84 58 68 12 64 71 63 55 64 72
Last total 21461556 128557063 3933682 3881523 1143424 1818581 3850902 22303440 3075548 11551574 913476 25679132 3126856 1105315 1863039 1481171 15035943 8032250 5973557 3638788 2866793 2487852 980451 2474869 1412969 3528689
Last daily increment 51251 738075 21076 0 726 4767 5305 416714 3214 0 5690 149928 12265 1653 2880 4059 69885 13025 1559 10032 2320 0 2317 6057 1419 0
Last week 314131 2710186 102634 30475 4501 21607 28867 908693 16775 43265 29800 757971 96427 6139 11168 21746 393589 88857 10626 50012 13223 0 12342 31732 7009 31190
Previous peak date -- --2021-11-192021-11-222021-10-252021-06-082021-11-302021-12-032021-08-182021-07-26 --2022-01-182021-06-052021-06-052021-11-222022-01-032021-08-212021-07-142021-11-302022-01-272021-10-202021-01-052021-11-112021-11-262021-09-032021-09-07
Previous peak daily increment 13601 17433 4795 326 18453 59358 991 26576 348864 893 178 10225 23008 6504 9508 23866 52990 14737 7986 3272 11187 1417 5638
Low between peaks 1378 5917 1340 94 4084 27573 327 1518 47690 385 67 1865 2747 2498 1257 11029 7274 301 223 1054 2782 410 792

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2022-04-06

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-01-122022-01-282021-12-292022-02-082022-01-152022-01-212022-02-172022-02-082022-01-192022-01-192022-01-162022-02-122021-12-122022-02-042022-01-142022-01-192022-01-162022-01-132022-01-172022-01-092022-01-102022-01-102021-12-272022-01-132022-01-152022-01-102022-01-192022-01-122022-01-242022-01-102022-01-172022-01-142022-01-182022-01-142022-01-102022-01-032022-02-152022-01-192022-01-242022-01-042022-01-032022-01-242022-01-182022-01-172022-02-282022-01-182022-01-062022-01-182022-01-192022-03-242022-01-152022-01-122022-01-182022-01-112022-01-182022-01-192022-01-182022-01-132022-01-182022-01-102022-03-032022-01-182022-01-172022-01-032022-01-18
Peak daily increment 109700 182433 40920 36050 30553 300525 54981 35342 43483 47146 33452 186181 20848 100070 792732 2786 27264 8269 43614 125083 24571 10476 3465 3036 107323 46066 4415 7758 2780 32479 15103 13928 12332 15200 21044 13446 8196 32109 12535 12288 7895 2224 59694 2102 18308 7957 30365 10240 16077 3095 33879 16540 9944 27642 19407 5109 15608 60465 16316 20181 10786 20947 55374 5238 1799
Days since peak 84 68 98 57 81 75 48 57 77 77 80 53 115 61 82 77 80 83 79 87 86 86 100 83 81 86 77 84 72 86 79 82 78 82 86 93 50 77 72 92 93 72 78 79 37 78 90 78 77 13 81 84 78 85 78 77 78 83 78 86 34 78 79 93 78
Last total 4910819 30069094 3527882 3495889 6086811 43031958 6026324 7180008 5683288 3549511 3680244 17679300 3727208 14929905 80248986 247766 1296348 806497 2007180 9114348 1352128 736569 137603 259198 5882042 2412231 235797 759370 444523 3076448 1692248 770983 1313796 1168190 1562520 1014223 236972 2348903 1431217 1304416 795164 272796 2634007 239861 474226 295360 2204783 511996 707980 5016295 2672801 1033059 705817 2785346 1469706 237246 1936343 6666182 692303 1673486 116487 1461129 1587996 498235 156264
Last daily increment 62608 26822 9552 3927 327 1033 2400 4228 12144 483 261 14510 2031 10314 40176 932 219 109 0 1079 1408 469 717 95 0 541 1138 939 24 2187 374 12 0 190 1309 527 268 3714 361 201 0 69 876 0 0 0 1859 147 1208 4521 0 0 1302 859 0 137 1773 2521 0 1036 222 5970 741 131 0
Last week 337753 117424 37972 24953 1895 6183 13506 17788 23753 2815 1999 96189 8255 69345 146732 1458 1021 444 0 18686 5629 3408 717 471 0 2698 1138 939 594 8375 1425 207 3950 659 6752 2304 1187 5697 2446 504 939 241 4645 0 170 0 8293 840 1208 21163 0 0 1665 3993 1566 137 1773 2171 0 4595 868 9628 2736 466 152
Previous peak date --2021-09-18 --2021-11-132021-06-262021-06-082021-07-152021-08-122021-08-112021-06-052021-09-102021-11-032021-07-03 --2021-08-302021-09-272021-08-262021-08-132021-01-032021-08-20 --2021-09-132021-09-072021-09-232021-08-062021-08-302021-08-292021-11-022021-09-292021-08-302021-08-302021-09-082021-09-012021-08-092021-06-052021-06-082021-06-062021-07-102021-06-052021-08-032021-08-162021-09-272021-09-1311-132021-09-252021-11-02 -- --2021-09-132022-01-0312-082021-09-012021-08-232021-06-072021-09-0611-132021-09-102021-09-0811-142021-09-132021-11-292021-08-30 --2021-09-1611-15
Previous peak daily increment 92852 2476 29569 90762 47188 38196 18310 3719 20318 39289 19200 163955 1313 5166 2236 9349 15425 655 256 466 38680 8907 1001 2877 1290 4099 5243 1581 4325 5922 190 106 58 369 242 2608 3631 919 6936 1487 32380 2387 1142 83161 17562 5395 2270 521 5397 1348 8113 18451 2465 3687 1273 3420 1847 788
Low between peaks 2340 968 1351 4447 143 1388 617 60 -396 16444 96 70833 44 379 400 411 2886 310 30 219 -1058 738 56 -448 236 1989 1567 742 1151 -8 43 47 11 169 64 851 83 88 1585 12 204 651 408 1347 235 222 396 128 -39 8 958 3045 151 1215 52 772 318 57

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-04-07 to 2022-04-13

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKNOCH
2022-04-06 21461556 128557063 3933682 3881523 1143424 1818581 3850902 22303440 3075548 11551574 913476 25679132 3126856 1105315 1863039 1481171 15035943 8032250 5973557 3638788 2866793 980451 2474869 1412969 3528689
2022-04-07 21462000 129609000 3954000 3917000 1146000 1830000 3865000 22693000 3086000 11582000 927300 25830000 3161000 1108000 1865000 1487000 15114000 8051000 5978000 3655000 2873000 984800 2492000 1421000 3590000
2022-04-08 21513000 130183000 3981000 3919000 1148000 1838000 3874000 22836000 3093000 11641000 936600 25980000 3185000 1110000 1868000 1496000 15190000 8077000 5981000 3676000 2877000 987800 2504000 1426000 3622000
2022-04-09 21513000 130676000 4004000 3919000 1149000 1842000 3878000 23039000 3099000 11641000 936600 26126000 3202000 1111000 1868000 1503000 15259000 8100000 5981000 3676000 2880000 990600 2512000 1429000 3630000
2022-04-10 21513000 131006000 4024000 3919000 1149000 1845000 3881000 23157000 3102000 11641000 936600 26266000 3212000 1112000 1868000 1509000 15313000 8122000 5981000 3676000 2881000 991600 2517000 1431000 3630000
2022-04-11 21599000 131233000 4044000 3943000 1151000 1849000 3888000 23160000 3105000 11641000 950400 26319000 3233000 1112000 1869000 1515000 15343000 8143000 5982000 3676000 2883000 992500 2521000 1435000 3647000
2022-04-12 21653000 131812000 4062000 3943000 1152000 1853000 3894000 23328000 3109000 11658000 954800 26542000 3253000 1113000 1873000 1520000 15432000 8164000 5982000 3687000 2886000 996100 2527000 1438000 3664000
2022-04-13 21746000 132480000 4081000 3946000 1152000 1857000 3900000 23668000 3113000 11658000 961500 26665000 3267000 1115000 1876000 1525000 15498000 8184000 5984000 3692000 2889000 998600 2533000 1439000 3668000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-04-07 to 2022-04-13

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2022-04-06 4910819 30069094 3527882 3495889 6086811 43031958 6026324 7180008 5683288 3549511 3680244 17679300 3727208 14929905 80248986 247766 1296348 806497 9114348 1352128 736569 137603 259198 2412231 235797 759370 444523 3076448 1692248 770983 1313796 1168190 1562520 1014223 236972 2348903 1431217 1304416 795164 272796 2634007 2204783 511996 707980 5016295 705817 2785346 1469706 1936343 6666182 1673486 116487 1461129 1587996 498235
2022-04-07 4966000 30121000 3534000 3505000 6087000 43035000 6036000 7180000 5683000 3550000 3681000 17696000 3729000 14946000 80297000 247800 1297000 806600 9117000 1354000 736600 138300 259300 2414000 236500 759400 444900 3079000 1692000 771200 1318000 1168000 1563000 1015000 237100 2349000 1432000 1305000 795200 272800 2636000 2205000 512100 712600 5019000 707000 2786000 1470000 1936000 6678000 1674000 116600 1461000 1588000 498500
2022-04-08 5004000 30165000 3543000 3513000 6088000 43036000 6043000 7181000 5685000 3551000 3681000 17722000 3730000 14958000 80338000 248100 1297000 806700 9124000 1355000 737300 138700 259400 2415000 236800 759500 445500 3081000 1693000 771500 1319000 1168000 1563000 1015000 237400 2351000 1433000 1306000 795200 272900 2638000 2206000 512200 714900 5020000 707800 2787000 1470000 1936000 6684000 1675000 116800 1463000 1589000 498700
2022-04-09 5049000 30190000 3546000 3519000 6088000 43038000 6044000 7183000 5688000 3552000 3682000 17743000 3732000 14967000 80345000 248100 1297000 806800 9126000 1355000 737300 138900 259400 2416000 237200 759600 445500 3082000 1693000 771700 1320000 1168000 1563000 1016000 237700 2352000 1433000 1306000 795200 272900 2638000 2207000 512200 716800 5021000 708200 2787000 1470000 1937000 6688000 1675000 116800 1463000 1590000 498800
2022-04-10 5097000 30200000 3547000 3523000 6088000 43039000 6045000 7184000 5690000 3552000 3682000 17762000 3733000 14973000 80350000 248200 1298000 806900 9127000 1355000 737300 139200 259500 2416000 237700 759700 445600 3082000 1693000 771900 1320000 1168000 1563000 1016000 237700 2353000 1433000 1306000 795200 272900 2639000 2207000 512200 718000 5023000 708700 2787000 1470000 1937000 6689000 1675000 116900 1463000 1590000 498900
2022-04-11 5146000 30216000 3549000 3526000 6088000 43040000 6048000 7188000 5690000 3553000 3683000 17780000 3734000 14982000 80378000 248400 1298000 807000 9130000 1356000 738000 139500 259500 2418000 238200 759900 445600 3085000 1693000 772200 1322000 1169000 1565000 1016000 237800 2354000 1433000 1306000 795800 273000 2641000 2208000 512700 718800 5026000 709700 2788000 1471000 1937000 6689000 1677000 117300 1465000 1591000 499100
2022-04-12 5198000 30237000 3559000 3527000 6089000 43042000 6054000 7191000 5693000 3553000 3683000 17796000 3736000 14991000 80402000 248500 1299000 807100 9135000 1358000 738400 139800 259600 2419000 238700 760000 445600 3087000 1693000 772400 1322000 1169000 1566000 1017000 238400 2355000 1434000 1306000 795800 273000 2643000 2209000 512700 720000 5028000 710500 2789000 1473000 1937000 6689000 1677000 117400 1466000 1592000 499200
2022-04-13 5250000 30266000 3567000 3532000 6089000 43043000 6057000 7195000 5701000 3554000 3683000 17813000 3737000 15002000 80440000 249400 1300000 807100 9136000 1359000 738900 140100 259600 2421000 239200 761100 445700 3088000 1694000 772800 1322000 1169000 1567000 1017000 238700 2358000 1434000 1307000 795800 273100 2644000 2211000 512900 720500 5031000 710800 2789000 1473000 1938000 6690000 1678000 117700 1470000 1593000 499300

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-04-07 to 2022-04-13

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSISKNOCH
2022-04-06 21461556 128557063 3933682 3881523 1143424 1818581 3850902 22303440 3075548 11551574 913476 25679132 3126856 1105315 1863039 1481171 15035943 8032250 5973557 3638788 2866793 980451 2474869 1412969 3528689
2022-04-07 21513000 129449000 3949000 3913000 1144000 1824000 3858000 22706000 3079000 11547000 921400 25839000 3145000 1107000 1866000 1487000 15110000 8048000 5975000 3672000 2869000 983100 2483000 1415000 3539000
2022-04-08 21590000 130010000 3972000 3915000 1146000 1830000 3864000 22834000 3083000 11596000 929200 25972000 3165000 1108000 1868000 1494000 15185000 8070000 5978000 3700000 2872000 985800 2490000 1417000 3557000
2022-04-09 21592000 130494000 3990000 3915000 1146000 1833000 3867000 23027000 3085000 11596000 929500 26095000 3181000 1110000 1868000 1498000 15255000 8090000 5980000 3700000 2875000 988200 2496000 1417000 3559000
2022-04-10 21593000 130814000 4004000 3915000 1146000 1834000 3869000 23132000 3087000 11596000 930200 26203000 3192000 1110000 1868000 1502000 15309000 8110000 5981000 3700000 2876000 989200 2500000 1418000 3561000
2022-04-11 21757000 131082000 4021000 3940000 1147000 1840000 3876000 23168000 3090000 11597000 943500 26235000 3213000 1110000 1870000 1511000 15344000 8129000 5984000 3704000 2878000 990100 2503000 1420000 3585000
2022-04-12 21840000 131750000 4036000 3941000 1149000 1845000 3884000 23383000 3093000 11628000 946900 26398000 3235000 1111000 1874000 1518000 15434000 8151000 5987000 3711000 2882000 994300 2510000 1422000 3609000
2022-04-13 21937000 132460000 4058000 3946000 1150000 1851000 3891000 23650000 3097000 11633000 955700 26517000 3255000 1113000 1876000 1523000 15504000 8173000 5992000 3713000 2885000 997400 2518000 1423000 3629000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-04-07 to 2022-04-13

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-TNUS-TXUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WV
2022-04-06 4910819 30069094 3527882 3495889 6086811 43031958 6026324 7180008 5683288 3549511 3680244 17679300 3727208 14929905 80248986 247766 1296348 806497 9114348 1352128 736569 137603 259198 2412231 235797 759370 444523 3076448 1692248 770983 1313796 1168190 1562520 1014223 236972 2348903 1431217 1304416 795164 272796 2634007 2204783 511996 707980 5016295 705817 2785346 1469706 1936343 6666182 1673486 116487 1461129 1587996 498235
2022-04-07 4971000 30097000 3536000 3501000 6087000 43033000 6029000 7183000 5690000 3550000 3681000 17695000 3729000 14943000 80293000 247800 1297000 806600 9117000 1354000 736800 138000 259300 2414000 236100 759400 444500 3078000 1692000 771000 1316000 1168000 1564000 1015000 237200 2349000 1432000 1305000 795200 272800 2635000 2206000 512200 708700 5020000 706300 2786000 1470000 1937000 6669000 1674000 116700 1462000 1589000 498300
2022-04-08 5026000 30126000 3546000 3507000 6087000 43034000 6032000 7184000 5692000 3550000 3681000 17713000 3730000 14954000 80330000 248200 1297000 806700 9122000 1355000 737600 138200 259400 2415000 236200 759500 444800 3080000 1693000 771200 1317000 1168000 1565000 1015000 237500 2351000 1432000 1305000 795200 272900 2637000 2207000 512300 709600 5022000 706600 2787000 1470000 1937000 6672000 1675000 116900 1464000 1589000 498400
2022-04-09 5081000 30142000 3549000 3511000 6088000 43035000 6032000 7185000 5695000 3551000 3681000 17730000 3731000 14965000 80338000 248200 1297000 806800 9123000 1355000 737600 138200 259500 2415000 236200 759500 444900 3080000 1693000 771300 1317000 1168000 1565000 1015000 237800 2352000 1432000 1305000 795300 272900 2637000 2208000 512300 710300 5025000 706600 2787000 1470000 1937000 6674000 1675000 117000 1464000 1590000 498400
2022-04-10 5136000 30146000 3552000 3515000 6088000 43035000 6033000 7187000 5697000 3551000 3682000 17746000 3733000 14972000 80344000 248200 1297000 806900 9124000 1355000 737600 138300 259600 2415000 236300 759600 444900 3080000 1693000 771500 1318000 1168000 1565000 1016000 237900 2352000 1433000 1305000 795300 272900 2637000 2209000 512400 710600 5027000 706700 2788000 1470000 1937000 6675000 1675000 117000 1464000 1590000 498400
2022-04-11 5192000 30160000 3553000 3518000 6088000 43036000 6035000 7189000 5697000 3552000 3682000 17760000 3733000 14983000 80374000 248400 1298000 807000 9127000 1357000 738400 138400 259600 2417000 236400 759700 445100 3083000 1693000 771700 1321000 1169000 1567000 1016000 238000 2353000 1433000 1305000 795900 272900 2640000 2210000 512900 710800 5030000 706900 2788000 1471000 1937000 6676000 1677000 117300 1467000 1591000 498600
2022-04-12 5248000 30192000 3563000 3520000 6088000 43037000 6040000 7191000 5700000 3552000 3682000 17774000 3735000 14995000 80397000 248500 1298000 807100 9131000 1359000 738700 138600 259700 2418000 236500 759800 445400 3084000 1693000 771800 1322000 1169000 1568000 1016000 238500 2353000 1434000 1305000 796000 273000 2641000 2211000 513000 711100 5033000 707200 2789000 1472000 1937000 6678000 1677000 117500 1467000 1592000 498700
2022-04-13 5305000 30222000 3572000 3524000 6088000 43037000 6043000 7193000 5702000 3552000 3682000 17789000 3736000 15008000 80434000 249100 1299000 807200 9132000 1360000 739000 138800 259700 2420000 236900 760500 445500 3085000 1693000 772100 1322000 1169000 1569000 1016000 238900 2356000 1434000 1306000 796000 273000 2642000 2212000 513200 711600 5036000 707600 2789000 1472000 1937000 6681000 1678000 117800 1469000 1593000 498800

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed