COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-04


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-01-04

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd) --11-0611-1110-2811-1612-1710-2912-1712-1811-0212-0511-0211-1412-0412-04 --11-1212-2311-2411-1511-17 -- --2021-01-0111-1711-02
Peak daily increment 209945 7102 16478 3440 3695 12261 23451 3275 21266 462 51646 2611 3536 5670 34940 10917 24706 5999 8602 2847 1196 8396
Days since peak 59 54 68 49 18 67 18 17 63 30 63 51 31 31 53 12 41 50 48 3 48 63
Last total 2713563 15827391 367410 650887 204080 224504 746714 1796216 170787 1958844 36919 2655915 140526 213319 328851 107997 2166244 827726 1322947 431623 643559 437379 125858 188099 51245 461961
Last daily increment 58784 101086 1642 876 1029 2321 6233 12320 2076 30579 147 4022 427 361 856 6110 10798 6563 4385 4369 3130 0 772 636 529 9665
Last week 330698 714804 12058 9476 4589 17848 61512 104107 12340 65342 1499 85148 3550 6723 11280 19558 98757 49824 54313 31621 20493 8846 8553 17912 2967 19480
Previous peak date04-0604-1203-2604-1507-2403-2804-0303-2704-0403-3004-0404-1204-21 --04-1010-1803-2403-31 --04-1004-0906-19 -- --03-2603-27
Previous peak daily increment 5034 53765 808 1470 238 283 283 5664 316 8062 146 29746 86 105 1161 5642 1079 830 358 1075 240 1136
Low between peaks 3378 27 79 118 -1009 47 318 19 -6218 5 -1044 7 4 193 60 179 158 7 15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-01-04

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-0212-16 --06-0612-2909-1512-3111-2812-1008-0208-1012-25 --12-1012-1212-052021-01-01 -- --12-1611-1812-07 --12-06 --11-0308-2711-1212-0411-0612-0411-23 --11-16 --12-05 --11-2711-1911-1412-1611-1712-2612-0911-2612-1312-0511-2012-05 --12-08 --11-2712-04 --11-1312-1411-0111-14 -- --12-0610-192021-01-0111-19
Peak daily increment 483 45254 7361 12952 92139 7603 13615 10347 8364 4291 27834 710333 213011 741 3824 44453 4984 2550 794 22916 245 4364 1504 12548 6620 2774 3876 2679 7869 6769 5684 2090 1163 10383 2212 3013 782 4812 2334 2640 16904 1549 10015 1359 7421 27578 2491 3179 12274 1616 801
Days since peak 155 19 212 6 111 4 37 25 155 147 10 25 23 30 3 19 47 28 29 62 130 53 31 59 31 42 49 30 38 46 51 19 48 9 26 39 22 30 45 30 27 38 31 52 21 64 51 29 77 3 46
Last total 28517 7753752 616134 620641 1686131 10356844 772103 1249507 1455219 1019475 478761 3226758 1113349 2255607 20817140 48134 374095 232020 561523 2458100 343408 193933 29904 60193 1373614 666532 22092 285576 143299 984740 529688 234297 279142 321770 372969 287802 25964 518492 423211 383203 223677 82664 570101 93240 168322 46366 491969 143934 233032 1035104 727423 306315 118453 670039 325472 100643 578491 1829199 218587 367536 7865 255031 527871 91886 45257
Last daily increment 13 20006 10058 2450 10311 16375 6753 6073 6464 1376 954 23015 12601 13695 180477 262 2161 1194 5139 31170 2185 4497 140 848 11243 4858 75 1623 793 5058 3617 3983 2317 1121 4329 2483 379 5446 3108 1252 1616 283 5484 199 586 818 1078 920 1418 11242 5942 2703 708 5126 3803 111 3470 18879 1565 3771 80 1039 1626 828 382
Last week 136 190201 47327 16655 71309 111992 44981 37026 53690 10567 7235 152835 91898 77027 1305714 2261 22291 15486 54301 229768 15025 12616 1369 4139 84444 48251 912 7922 4776 37013 29406 14862 17651 17686 28738 16741 3068 17469 12523 16376 13645 2238 45823 1412 5782 4529 25429 7419 12908 84660 44853 22743 7226 42513 24870 2485 36547 99115 11789 27239 671 15600 14815 9113 1334
Previous peak date03-2808-0404-22 -- -- -- --04-0110-05 -- --05-0907-1604-14 -- --07-16 --07-0207-2004-2404-2005-0110-0207-1607-30 --08-2709-0909-04 --04-30 --07-1904-1705-0605-2204-06 -- --07-24 -- -- --05-0105-0104-0807-2307-1904-0104-19 -- --04-0907-1405-09 --07-16 --05-26 --07-18 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45353 1791 2860 23279 10922 12927 4816 1851 3570 9259 729 1011 190 417 12174 3329 1648 975 3969 303 2160 2243 1017 48 1627 1273 441 89 4272 286 1108 11252 994 1624 1922 148 9849 1075 847 50
Low between peaks 7 19229 1038 4836 4741 -703 881 3128 179 72 126 1239 723 283 1757 94 428 361 154 464 142 18 83 95 298 386 423 56 3766 398 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-05 to 2021-01-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-04 2713563 15827391 367410 650887 204080 224504 746714 1796216 170787 1958844 36919 2655915 140526 213319 328851 107997 2166244 827726 1322947 431623 643559 437379 125858 188099 51245 461961
2021-01-05 2766000 15963000 368100 654300 206500 229000 758200 1830000 171600 1963000 37150 2668000 140900 214000 330100 113600 2177000 836600 1331000 431600 644100 462100 127200 189800 51590 466600
2021-01-06 2822000 16130000 369600 656800 208100 233600 771100 1868000 172500 1978000 37380 2681000 141300 215100 331300 118100 2191000 845500 1342000 436600 646000 468700 129300 193000 52200 471200
2021-01-07 2884000 16277000 371400 658700 209200 236900 785000 1887000 173400 1994000 37610 2693000 141800 216700 332500 123100 2211000 854300 1354000 442500 647700 468700 131500 197900 52690 475300
2021-01-08 2940000 16382000 372600 660200 210000 240300 795200 1891000 174300 1996000 37840 2705000 142100 217300 333800 127800 2230000 863200 1363000 447500 649400 468900 133000 202100 53010 475700
2021-01-09 2997000 16448000 373600 661200 211100 242400 800900 1902000 175300 1996000 38070 2717000 142300 217300 335000 133100 2241000 872100 1370000 451100 649600 468900 133500 203600 53430 475900
2021-01-10 3052000 16511000 374300 662000 211300 243900 804500 1909000 176200 1996000 38300 2729000 142300 217300 336200 138300 2253000 881100 1374000 454100 649600 468900 134000 204800 53830 475900
2021-01-11 3110000 16597000 375600 662700 212200 246200 810700 1921000 177200 2024000 38530 2741000 142500 217300 337500 143100 2262000 890100 1378000 457500 651800 468900 134700 205400 54290 484800

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-05 to 2021-01-11

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-04 7753752 616134 620641 1686131 10356844 772103 1249507 1455219 1019475 478761 3226758 1113349 2255607 20817140 48134 374095 232020 561523 2458100 343408 193933 29904 60193 1373614 666532 22092 285576 143299 984740 529688 234297 279142 321770 372969 287802 25964 518492 423211 383203 223677 82664 570101 93240 168322 46366 491969 143934 233032 1035104 727423 306315 118453 670039 325472 100643 578491 1829199 218587 367536 7865 255031 527871 91886 45257
2021-01-05 7822000 626300 620900 1696000 10374000 777300 1255000 1468000 1021000 480000 3249000 1129000 2268000 21011000 48420 377800 233500 572900 2497000 344400 194800 30130 60820 1383000 670200 22130 287000 145000 990000 534000 237200 284200 323100 378900 290200 26310 521700 425700 385600 225000 83030 570600 93650 169400 47090 495900 145100 235000 1048000 734000 308900 119200 677000 329100 101100 584500 1844000 219200 369800 7985 255900 530100 92600 45480
2021-01-06 7869000 634100 623500 1706000 10389000 784600 1261000 1479000 1023000 481100 3271000 1148000 2279000 21202000 48700 382400 236400 582100 2536000 346100 196300 30340 61430 1393000 678500 22230 288600 146100 996000 538300 242900 287900 328400 384800 292500 26930 524700 428000 388000 227700 83380 577900 94030 170600 47760 499800 146200 236900 1061000 740500 313200 120200 684000 333300 101600 590400 1864000 221000 373400 8105 256700 532400 93900 45700
2021-01-07 7920000 641400 625800 1715000 10404000 791800 1267000 1490000 1025000 482300 3293000 1164000 2290000 21391000 48990 386700 239100 591600 2573000 348500 198200 30560 62040 1404000 688700 22380 290000 147100 1001000 542500 243200 291500 332000 389800 294700 27610 525100 430300 390300 230200 83730 583300 94290 171800 48470 503600 147300 238700 1075000 747000 318000 121500 690800 338100 102000 596100 1879000 223900 377900 8252 257800 534700 95100 45920
2021-01-08 7943000 647800 628500 1724000 10418000 799000 1272000 1500000 1026000 483500 3315000 1180000 2301000 21577000 49270 390800 242500 600800 2611000 350800 198400 30770 62650 1415000 697000 22600 291000 147200 1006000 546700 247800 294900 332300 391100 297000 28140 525300 432500 392600 232400 84080 585000 94560 172600 49130 507400 148400 240600 1090000 753400 320100 121700 697700 339500 102100 601800 1890000 224000 381200 8315 258600 536900 96800 46130
2021-01-09 7961000 653900 631200 1734000 10443000 806400 1278000 1505000 1028000 484700 3336000 1193000 2312000 21765000 49550 394000 244300 610100 2649000 352100 201400 30980 63260 1426000 702000 22730 291900 148000 1012000 550900 248400 298400 332300 395900 299300 28420 532300 434700 395000 233900 84430 600100 94700 173000 49800 511200 149500 242500 1103000 759800 324800 123600 704700 345300 102600 607600 1901000 227000 383900 8530 259400 539200 98400 46340
2021-01-10 7972000 659700 633400 1743000 10454000 812900 1284000 1510000 1029000 485900 3358000 1202000 2322000 21953000 49840 396000 245900 619600 2688000 353300 201400 31190 63870 1437000 706600 22850 292400 148100 1017000 555100 248400 301900 337100 397900 301500 28740 532300 436900 397300 235500 84780 605600 94850 173600 50470 515100 150600 244300 1114000 766300 332600 124800 711600 354200 103100 613400 1917000 228100 387600 8657 260200 541400 99700 46550
2021-01-11 7992000 665300 635400 1753000 10466000 818900 1289000 1516000 1031000 487100 3380000 1208000 2333000 22142000 50130 398100 247000 629200 2726000 355100 206800 31400 64480 1448000 710300 22930 293800 148900 1023000 559400 252200 305500 337900 398600 303800 29110 536400 439100 399600 236900 85130 610500 95000 174100 51140 518900 151700 246200 1125000 772800 334600 125500 718600 357100 103300 619300 1932000 229500 391200 8706 261100 543700 100500 46770

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-05 to 2021-01-11

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-04 2713563 15827391 367410 650887 204080 224504 746714 1796216 170787 1958844 36919 2655915 140526 213319 328851 107997 2166244 827726 1322947 431623 643559 437379 125858 188099 51245 461961
2021-01-05 2770000 15937000 368700 652100 205100 226100 756300 1811000 172500 1971000 37100 2665000 141100 213900 329800 112600 2176000 834600 1330000 434800 646400 461700 127200 190000 51830 465200
2021-01-06 2822000 16059000 370600 653900 206100 230800 769500 1835000 174500 1983000 37290 2677000 141700 215000 331400 115600 2187000 843100 1340000 439100 649700 468200 129000 192900 52380 468600
2021-01-07 2877000 16165000 372700 655400 206800 234300 783500 1850000 176500 1996000 37460 2689000 142300 216300 333300 118700 2203000 852000 1351000 443600 652800 469000 130700 196600 52850 471600
2021-01-08 2930000 16232000 374300 656700 207200 237800 794000 1855000 178500 2001000 37620 2700000 142800 217000 335200 121800 2218000 860100 1360000 447600 655700 469700 132200 200100 53210 472700
2021-01-09 2984000 16276000 375600 658100 208000 240300 800900 1867000 180600 2004000 37760 2711000 143200 217600 336500 124800 2224000 869700 1368000 450600 658200 470400 133100 202300 53610 474000
2021-01-10 3037000 16321000 376900 659200 208400 242500 805500 1876000 182700 2008000 37900 2722000 143500 218200 337800 128300 2230000 879200 1374000 454000 660900 470700 134100 204200 53980 475100
2021-01-11 3092000 16370000 378400 660500 208700 245300 811500 1888000 184800 2024000 38040 2733000 143900 218700 339000 131500 2235000 887200 1379000 457000 663700 470900 135100 205900 54400 480700

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-05 to 2021-01-11

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-04 7753752 616134 620641 1686131 10356844 772103 1249507 1455219 1019475 478761 3226758 1113349 2255607 20817140 48134 374095 232020 561523 2458100 343408 193933 29904 60193 1373614 666532 22092 285576 143299 984740 529688 234297 279142 321770 372969 287802 25964 518492 423211 383203 223677 82664 570101 93240 168322 46366 491969 143934 233032 1035104 727423 306315 118453 670039 325472 100643 578491 1829199 218587 367536 7865 255031 527871 91886 45257
2021-01-05 7805000 626200 622700 1697000 10371000 779100 1255000 1465000 1021000 479700 3246000 1126000 2269000 21014000 48440 377400 234100 570300 2491000 345000 195300 30120 60870 1386000 675300 22170 286800 144200 990000 533500 235400 282400 325000 376600 290000 26450 521400 425300 385200 225600 83030 575800 93420 169100 47210 495100 144900 235000 1047000 735700 309500 119500 675500 329700 101000 583500 1856000 220400 371600 7962 257500 530100 93200 45490
2021-01-06 7856000 632700 625200 1708000 10380000 786400 1259000 1475000 1022000 480700 3263000 1141000 2285000 21220000 48710 381400 236700 576600 2524000 347100 196900 30350 61450 1398000 683000 22280 288100 145000 995000 537500 238900 284900 329800 380800 292300 27000 524300 426800 387300 227900 83490 583100 93750 170100 47820 499100 146100 236900 1060000 741900 312300 120500 682300 332900 101400 588700 1874000 222000 375600 8038 259000 532300 94500 45680
2021-01-07 7910000 638800 627500 1720000 10387000 793700 1263000 1485000 1024000 481600 3280000 1155000 2301000 21427000 48970 385100 239100 582800 2554000 349600 198600 30540 62030 1409000 692400 22410 289300 145800 999000 541500 239700 287100 333100 385300 294600 27590 525100 428300 389400 230100 83830 588400 93990 171000 48440 503100 147300 238700 1072000 749400 315300 121600 689200 336400 101800 593600 1887000 224100 379900 8162 261300 534900 95800 45870
2021-01-08 7935000 642200 630300 1731000 10396000 801000 1266000 1495000 1025000 482500 3296000 1169000 2317000 21589000 49230 388700 242000 588800 2587000 352100 199600 30720 62610 1421000 700600 22600 290300 146400 1003000 545500 242400 289200 333700 386300 297000 28080 525700 429500 391500 232100 84090 589900 94240 171800 49050 507100 148400 240600 1086000 753200 317400 122400 695800 338400 101900 598100 1896000 224900 384000 8186 262400 536800 97400 46050
2021-01-09 7958000 646000 632800 1743000 10408000 808400 1270000 1502000 1027000 483400 3312000 1183000 2333000 21790000 49490 391300 243700 594800 2626000 353600 201700 30910 63200 1433000 705800 22720 291300 147100 1008000 549600 243200 292100 334100 390700 299100 28390 530700 431000 393600 233800 84440 604000 94380 172400 49670 511100 149400 242400 1098000 758700 320700 123600 702600 342600 102400 604100 1904000 227100 387700 8350 263600 538200 98900 46250
2021-01-10 7976000 653000 634600 1754000 10417000 815000 1273000 1509000 1028000 484300 3326000 1196000 2349000 21944000 49760 393300 245300 600700 2658000 355100 202600 31150 63800 1444000 710000 22830 292100 147700 1012000 553600 244100 294300 337000 393200 300800 28720 531400 432600 395800 235500 84790 608100 94730 173200 50300 515000 150200 244200 1110000 764200 324300 124700 709200 347400 102800 609000 1918000 228300 391800 8434 265800 539900 100100 46420
2021-01-11 7994000 657600 636500 1766000 10425000 821200 1276000 1516000 1029000 485200 3342000 1208000 2365000 22090000 50020 395100 246600 606600 2688000 356500 206300 31280 64400 1456000 714300 22930 293100 148600 1016000 557700 246800 296400 337800 395500 302600 29100 534900 434100 397900 237100 85060 611200 94910 173900 50940 518700 150900 245700 1122000 768700 326900 125600 715900 349900 103000 614300 1925000 229500 395900 8500 267100 541300 101100 46640

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (with Jennie Castle and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting.
[2020-10-10]Temporarily removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed