COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-05-27


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2022-05-27

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-04-192022-01-262022-03-172022-01-242022-01-252022-02-052022-01-272022-03-242022-01-282022-01-172022-04-212022-04-052022-01-042022-01-182022-01-242022-05-182022-01-122022-02-072022-01-282022-05-182022-02-012022-01-252022-02-022022-02-102022-02-012022-01-24
Peak daily increment 36823 1234089 45422 49623 8686 19196 35043 233181 44590 139098 19594 141022 34255 8554 16049 10767 181768 321029 46977 27196 29129 40109 14275 22199 20182 36137
Days since peak 38 121 71 123 122 111 120 64 119 130 36 52 143 129 123 9 135 109 119 9 115 122 114 106 115 123
Last total 22277696 141396705 4281585 4147568 1164526 1882407 3919600 26240639 3134910 12326264 1092193 28623271 3439773 1135874 1917777 1561632 17355119 8166056 6006809 4606051 2908018 2507948 1024219 2541986 1432687 3668054
Last daily increment 4656 186612 2631 0 168 108 256 39976 306 45919 0 4172 3727 325 0 0 21820 1959 262 61734 427 0 297 477 244 0
Last week 38983 760815 15123 13275 1209 1675 1536 196356 3958 91458 10968 60114 22160 1847 3080 9797 125856 6793 1373 183518 2159 1341 2254 1515 1454 8117
Previous peak date2022-01-31 --2021-11-202021-11-222021-10-252021-06-082021-11-302021-12-032021-08-182021-07-262022-01-112022-01-182021-06-052021-06-052021-11-222022-01-032021-08-212021-07-142021-11-302022-01-312021-10-202021-09-012021-11-112021-11-262021-09-032021-09-07
Previous peak daily increment 711183 13991 17433 4795 326 18453 59358 991 26576 8391 348863 893 178 10224 23008 6504 9508 23866 57881 14737 1245 3272 11187 1417 5638
Low between peaks 18233 2167 5917 1340 94 4084 27573 327 1518 1374 47730 385 67 1865 875 2498 1257 11029 8050 301 534 1054 2782 410 792

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2022-05-27

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-03-312022-01-282022-04-132022-02-082022-01-152022-01-212022-02-172022-02-082022-04-072022-01-192022-01-162022-02-122021-12-122022-02-042022-01-142022-01-192022-01-162022-01-132022-03-312022-01-092022-05-122022-05-162022-04-122022-05-162022-05-202022-01-102022-05-182022-01-122022-01-242022-05-162022-01-172022-01-142022-01-182022-01-142022-05-162022-04-132022-05-092022-05-112022-05-162022-01-042022-01-032022-01-242022-01-182022-01-172022-02-282022-01-182022-05-132022-01-182022-01-192022-05-162022-01-152022-01-192022-01-182022-05-182022-01-182022-01-192022-01-182022-01-132022-01-182022-01-102022-03-032022-01-182022-05-162022-01-032022-01-18
Peak daily increment 57217 182433 42056 36050 30553 300525 54981 35342 21585 47146 33452 186181 20848 100070 792830 2786 27264 8269 4418 125193 4971 6294 438 527 60142 46066 1331 7758 2780 5833 15103 13928 12332 15200 3724 645 688 4730 2085 12288 7895 2224 59694 2126 17291 7668 4959 10240 16077 10025 33258 17515 9944 10579 19407 5132 15649 60465 13669 20181 10786 20947 2292 5238 1601
Days since peak 57 119 44 108 132 126 99 108 50 128 131 104 166 112 133 128 131 134 57 138 15 11 45 11 7 137 9 135 123 11 130 133 129 133 11 44 18 16 11 143 144 123 129 130 88 129 14 129 128 11 132 128 129 9 129 128 129 134 129 137 85 129 11 144 129
Last total 7189926 30921145 3879660 3675085 6103455 43147530 6053894 7231284 5759773 3578364 3689865 18048085 3948119 15069034 83969313 259076 1312437 815281 2049627 9554033 1441342 803929 149271 273967 6098820 2463147 267602 776154 450957 3286298 1730761 786663 1345140 1188550 1702072 1083424 262070 2482698 1504145 1344227 805040 277497 2744935 244278 477210 320454 2378143 527082 728449 5413730 2763123 1047856 760803 2907324 1495762 239704 1965306 6850539 709854 1777813 129792 1570377 1669592 513953 157861
Last daily increment 32621 40633 5270 9223 0 0 224 185 0 457 209 4546 3274 940 132199 0 1056 375 0 41300 2567 1129 428 613 0 0 0 0 620 5675 2943 178 0 1043 3085 2677 512 0 2269 5993 0 1305 0 933 0 570 5194 790 0 9329 0 0 1925 0 0 0 0 5792 0 3628 0 7944 2572 648 0
Last week 240959 158732 17102 38092 4344 11159 1531 1543 7332 3073 1114 26084 21467 6641 705392 2022 4554 1937 11498 108112 22570 8815 2061 3588 0 13405 8821 3956 1694 36864 8784 3063 8127 5607 19921 15403 3046 25820 12117 8277 2558 1305 29139 933 2755 4291 28593 4520 6187 51512 19546 2443 11082 29664 8034 594 8614 29242 4517 22523 1511 21303 14784 4702 452
Previous peak date2022-01-122021-09-182021-12-292021-11-132021-06-262021-06-082021-07-152021-08-122022-01-192021-06-052021-09-102021-11-032021-07-03 --2021-08-302021-09-272021-08-262021-08-132022-01-172021-08-202022-01-102022-01-102021-12-272022-01-132022-01-152021-08-302022-01-192021-11-022021-09-292022-01-102021-08-302021-09-082021-09-012021-08-092022-01-102022-01-032022-02-152022-01-192022-01-242021-08-032021-08-162021-09-272021-09-132021-09-302021-09-252021-11-022022-01-06 --2021-09-132022-01-032021-09-162021-09-012021-08-232022-01-112021-09-062021-09-132021-09-102021-09-082021-11-152021-09-132021-11-292021-08-302022-01-172021-09-162021-09-20
Previous peak daily increment 109701 92852 40919 2476 29569 90762 47188 38196 43483 3719 20318 39289 19200 163957 1313 5166 2236 44245 15426 24571 10476 3465 3036 121255 8907 4415 2877 1290 32479 5243 1581 4325 5922 21044 13446 8195 32109 12535 2608 3631 919 6936 598 31640 2331 30365 1142 83161 6892 4762 2270 27643 5397 461 8111 18451 1194 3687 1273 3420 55374 1847 555
Low between peaks 19599 2340 5057 968 1351 4447 143 1388 2342 60 -396 16444 96 70841 44 379 400 584 2884 860 315 -219 -649 437 738 63 -448 236 986 1567 742 1151 -8 563 268 114 514 326 851 83 88 1585 253 172 652 901 408 1575 3348 -7 396 581 -39 175 957 3045 146 1215 52 772 318 318 43

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-28 to 2022-06-03

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-05-27 22277696 141396705 4281585 4147568 1164526 1882407 3919600 26240639 3134910 12326264 1092193 28623271 3439773 1135874 1917777 1561632 17355119 8166056 6006809 4606051 2908018 2507948 1024219 2541986 1432687 3668054
2022-05-28 22299000 141678000 4290000 4154000 1165000 1882000 3920000 26371000 3135000 12340000 1120000 28651000 3445000 1137000 1918000 1562000 17415000 8168000 6008000 4606000 2909000 2509000 1025000 2543000 1433000 3679000
2022-05-29 22306000 141805000 4296000 4156000 1165000 1883000 3921000 26431000 3135000 12340000 1125000 28660000 3448000 1137000 1919000 1563000 17454000 8172000 6008000 4606000 2909000 2509000 1026000 2543000 1433000 3685000
2022-05-30 22336000 141958000 4305000 4169000 1166000 1883000 3921000 26551000 3136000 12344000 1129000 28660000 3451000 1138000 1919000 1563000 17472000 8176000 6008000 4625000 2910000 2509000 1026000 2544000 1433000 3692000
2022-05-31 22349000 142175000 4309000 4169000 1166000 1884000 3922000 26654000 3136000 12357000 1129000 28660000 3457000 1138000 1920000 1564000 17513000 8180000 6009000 4658000 2910000 2509000 1027000 2544000 1434000 3719000
2022-06-01 22362000 142345000 4315000 4174000 1166000 1884000 3922000 26745000 3136000 12360000 1129000 28689000 3461000 1139000 1923000 1564000 17543000 8185000 6009000 4687000 2911000 2509000 1027000 2544000 1434000 3719000
2022-06-02 22369000 142448000 4320000 4177000 1166000 1884000 3923000 26790000 3137000 12385000 1133000 28706000 3465000 1139000 1923000 1565000 17562000 8190000 6009000 4697000 2911000 2510000 1028000 2544000 1434000 3723000
2022-06-03 22381000 142605000 4322000 4178000 1167000 1884000 3923000 26807000 3137000 12421000 1133000 28710000 3469000 1139000 1923000 1565000 17585000 8195000 6010000 4746000 2912000 2510000 1028000 2545000 1434000 3723000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-28 to 2022-06-03

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-05-27 7189926 30921145 3879660 3675085 6103455 43147530 6053894 7231284 5759773 3578364 3689865 18048085 3948119 15069034 83969313 259076 1312437 815281 2049627 9554033 1441342 803929 149271 273967 2463147 267602 776154 450957 3286298 1730761 786663 1345140 1188550 1702072 1083424 262070 2482698 1504145 1344227 805040 277497 2744935 244278 477210 320454 2378143 527082 728449 5413730 2763123 1047856 760803 2907324 1495762 239704 1965306 6850539 709854 1777813 129792 1570377 1669592 513953 157861
2022-05-28 7233000 30921000 3886000 3675000 6104000 43150000 6054000 7232000 5761000 3579000 3690000 18053000 3962000 15071000 83981000 259100 1314000 815300 2050000 9554000 1441000 804200 149600 274000 2464000 267600 776200 451000 3288000 1731000 786700 1346000 1189000 1705000 1083000 263100 2483000 1505000 1344000 805200 277500 2745000 245100 477200 320500 2384000 527100 728400 5423000 2769000 1049000 760800 2907000 1496000 239700 1965000 6851000 711100 1778000 130100 1570000 1671000 514000 157900
2022-05-29 7292000 30933000 3889000 3675000 6104000 43155000 6054000 7232000 5761000 3579000 3690000 18058000 3969000 15073000 83981000 259100 1315000 815300 2050000 9554000 1441000 804200 149600 274000 2464000 267600 776200 451000 3288000 1731000 786800 1346000 1189000 1706000 1083000 263200 2483000 1506000 1344000 805200 277600 2745000 245700 477200 320500 2388000 527100 728400 5433000 2773000 1050000 760800 2907000 1496000 239700 1965000 6852000 711100 1778000 130400 1570000 1671000 514000 157900
2022-05-30 7343000 30941000 3891000 3675000 6104000 43158000 6055000 7233000 5767000 3580000 3690000 18062000 3972000 15074000 84088000 259100 1316000 815300 2050000 9566000 1441000 807300 149600 275300 2464000 267600 776200 451200 3303000 1733000 786900 1349000 1190000 1714000 1084000 263800 2483000 1508000 1344000 807600 277600 2745000 246300 477800 322100 2391000 527300 728400 5442000 2777000 1050000 763700 2907000 1496000 239700 1965000 6855000 711100 1784000 130600 1577000 1673000 514700 157900
2022-05-31 7389000 30962000 3895000 3676000 6104000 43161000 6055000 7233000 5767000 3580000 3690000 18067000 3978000 15075000 84170000 259100 1317000 815600 2050000 9594000 1441000 808500 150000 275400 2465000 267600 776200 451200 3307000 1733000 787100 1351000 1191000 1717000 1090000 264700 2483000 1512000 1345000 807600 277700 2745000 246800 477800 322900 2395000 527400 728400 5451000 2782000 1051000 764800 2907000 1497000 239800 1965000 6858000 711100 1787000 130900 1577000 1678000 515300 158500
2022-06-01 7435000 30976000 3901000 3680000 6104000 43164000 6055000 7233000 5767000 3580000 3691000 18071000 3984000 15076000 84357000 260800 1318000 816000 2063000 9596000 1441000 810000 150300 275700 2471000 275800 779600 451700 3313000 1735000 789200 1351000 1192000 1720000 1091000 265400 2506000 1514000 1345000 807600 277800 2773000 247300 478400 323400 2400000 527800 735400 5459000 2788000 1052000 766700 2929000 1499000 240400 1969000 6862000 711200 1790000 131100 1581000 1680000 515600 158500
2022-06-02 7479000 30996000 3905000 3686000 6104000 43167000 6055000 7233000 5767000 3581000 3691000 18076000 3987000 15078000 84473000 260800 1319000 816300 2063000 9607000 1447000 811300 150800 276400 2471000 275800 779600 451700 3319000 1735000 789300 1351000 1193000 1724000 1094000 266000 2506000 1516000 1346000 807600 277800 2773000 247700 478400 324000 2405000 528300 735400 5468000 2812000 1056000 768400 2929000 1499000 240400 1970000 6868000 711200 1793000 131300 1582000 1683000 516300 158500
2022-06-03 7522000 31031000 3910000 3693000 6104000 43169000 6056000 7234000 5767000 3581000 3691000 18080000 3993000 15078000 84588000 260800 1320000 816600 2065000 9638000 1449000 812900 151200 276900 2472000 276200 780000 452200 3324000 1738000 790000 1351000 1194000 1727000 1096000 266600 2506000 1518000 1351000 807600 279300 2776000 248200 478400 324500 2410000 529000 736400 5477000 2812000 1056000 770000 2929000 1499000 240600 1970000 6873000 712100 1796000 131500 1589000 1685000 516800 158500

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-28 to 2022-06-03

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-05-27 22277696 141396705 4281585 4147568 1164526 1882407 3919600 26240639 3134910 12326264 1092193 28623271 3439773 1135874 1917777 1561632 17355119 8166056 6006809 4606051 2908018 2507948 1024219 2541986 1432687 3668054
2022-05-28 22277000 141483000 4283000 4148000 1165000 1882000 3920000 26242000 3135000 12358000 1095000 28634000 3443000 1136000 1918000 1562000 17374000 8168000 6007000 4627000 2908000 2508000 1024000 2542000 1433000 3670000
2022-05-29 22281000 141536000 4285000 4149000 1165000 1882000 3920000 26250000 3136000 12358000 1099000 28645000 3447000 1137000 1918000 1564000 17395000 8172000 6007000 4632000 2909000 2508000 1025000 2542000 1433000 3672000
2022-05-30 22308000 141646000 4289000 4159000 1165000 1882000 3920000 26306000 3136000 12362000 1102000 28645000 3449000 1137000 1919000 1565000 17404000 8176000 6007000 4654000 2909000 2509000 1025000 2543000 1433000 3674000
2022-05-31 22321000 141834000 4291000 4160000 1165000 1884000 3920000 26366000 3137000 12371000 1103000 28646000 3454000 1137000 1920000 1567000 17434000 8180000 6008000 4689000 2909000 2509000 1025000 2543000 1433000 3688000
2022-06-01 22332000 142019000 4294000 4163000 1166000 1884000 3921000 26422000 3138000 12379000 1103000 28680000 3458000 1137000 1922000 1570000 17473000 8185000 6008000 4713000 2910000 2509000 1026000 2543000 1434000 3688000
2022-06-02 22345000 142180000 4299000 4168000 1166000 1884000 3921000 26466000 3138000 12396000 1110000 28703000 3462000 1138000 1922000 1572000 17502000 8189000 6008000 4731000 2910000 2510000 1026000 2543000 1434000 3689000
2022-06-03 22358000 142351000 4302000 4169000 1166000 1884000 3921000 26501000 3139000 12417000 1111000 28716000 3466000 1138000 1922000 1573000 17530000 8194000 6009000 4762000 2911000 2511000 1027000 2544000 1434000 3690000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-28 to 2022-06-03

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-05-27 7189926 30921145 3879660 3675085 6103455 43147530 6053894 7231284 5759773 3578364 3689865 18048085 3948119 15069034 83969313 259076 1312437 815281 2049627 9554033 1441342 803929 149271 273967 2463147 267602 776154 450957 3286298 1730761 786663 1345140 1188550 1702072 1083424 262070 2482698 1504145 1344227 805040 277497 2744935 244278 477210 320454 2378143 527082 728449 5413730 2763123 1047856 760803 2907324 1495762 239704 1965306 6850539 709854 1777813 129792 1570377 1669592 513953 157861
2022-05-28 7232000 30933000 3880000 3682000 6104000 43149000 6054000 7231000 5760000 3579000 3690000 18053000 3953000 15071000 84007000 259100 1313000 815600 2051000 9562000 1443000 803300 149600 274100 2464000 268300 776200 451100 3286000 1731000 786700 1345000 1189000 1702000 1084000 262800 2483000 1504000 1345000 805100 277800 2745000 244500 477300 320500 2383000 527400 728600 5422000 2764000 1048000 761200 2910000 1496000 239700 1966000 6854000 710200 1778000 130000 1572000 1670000 514200 157900
2022-05-29 7282000 30949000 3881000 3686000 6104000 43152000 6054000 7232000 5760000 3579000 3690000 18057000 3957000 15072000 84017000 259100 1313000 815700 2052000 9563000 1444000 803300 149800 274100 2465000 269200 776300 451100 3286000 1731000 786800 1346000 1189000 1702000 1084000 262900 2483000 1504000 1345000 805200 277800 2747000 244600 477500 320600 2387000 527500 729100 5431000 2765000 1048000 761300 2912000 1496000 239800 1966000 6857000 710600 1778000 130200 1572000 1670000 514200 157900
2022-05-30 7330000 30959000 3882000 3689000 6104000 43154000 6054000 7232000 5766000 3580000 3690000 18061000 3959000 15073000 84132000 259200 1314000 815800 2052000 9578000 1448000 806100 149800 275400 2465000 270300 776400 451400 3299000 1733000 786800 1351000 1190000 1710000 1085000 263500 2484000 1506000 1345000 807400 277800 2750000 244800 478400 322100 2391000 528500 729600 5440000 2766000 1048000 764000 2915000 1497000 239800 1966000 6860000 711000 1785000 130500 1578000 1672000 515300 157900
2022-05-31 7375000 30979000 3884000 3692000 6104000 43155000 6055000 7232000 5766000 3580000 3690000 18065000 3963000 15074000 84224000 259200 1315000 816100 2053000 9607000 1449000 807300 150300 275600 2466000 271300 776600 451400 3303000 1733000 786900 1352000 1191000 1712000 1090000 264300 2484000 1510000 1345000 807400 277800 2752000 244900 478400 322900 2396000 528900 730100 5449000 2767000 1049000 765400 2917000 1500000 239800 1966000 6864000 711400 1788000 130600 1579000 1677000 515700 158300
2022-06-01 7421000 30990000 3889000 3697000 6104000 43157000 6055000 7233000 5766000 3580000 3691000 18069000 3969000 15075000 84411000 260700 1315000 816500 2059000 9611000 1452000 809600 150600 275900 2474000 275800 779800 451800 3309000 1735000 788300 1353000 1192000 1715000 1092000 265100 2506000 1512000 1346000 807400 277900 2767000 245000 478700 323400 2401000 529500 733700 5458000 2768000 1049000 767000 2937000 1502000 240400 1970000 6868000 711800 1791000 131000 1583000 1679000 516100 158300
2022-06-02 7466000 31003000 3894000 3703000 6105000 43159000 6055000 7233000 5766000 3581000 3691000 18073000 3973000 15076000 84529000 260800 1316000 816800 2060000 9624000 1457000 811900 151300 276600 2474000 277300 779900 451800 3316000 1735000 788400 1353000 1193000 1720000 1094000 265800 2507000 1515000 1347000 807400 277900 2771000 245200 478800 324200 2406000 530000 734400 5467000 2782000 1051000 768600 2938000 1503000 240400 1970000 6872000 713800 1794000 131500 1583000 1682000 516700 158400
2022-06-03 7511000 31028000 3900000 3709000 6105000 43161000 6055000 7233000 5767000 3581000 3691000 18077000 3983000 15077000 84656000 260800 1317000 817100 2061000 9642000 1459000 814600 151800 277300 2475000 278300 780100 452200 3322000 1738000 789200 1353000 1194000 1724000 1097000 266600 2508000 1517000 1351000 807400 278300 2773000 245500 478800 324500 2412000 530600 735000 5476000 2783000 1051000 770200 2938000 1504000 240400 1970000 6877000 714900 1798000 131700 1589000 1685000 517200 158400

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed