COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-04-06


Disclaimer

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. The documentation that is provided is still in progress and not peer reviewed. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.

Moderation of forecast

[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with +). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data. And the world. [2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but it seems that our forecasts need slightly less frequent updating.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. Again: no other epidemiological data is used.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • We will probably revise or update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks.
  • Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecasted, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references, but remains preliminary. Also preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-07 to 2020-04-11

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-06 51608 578836 12297 20814 4794 4822 103374 4681 136675 2176 98010 5364 132547 18803 4413 11730 4057 7206 5865 21657
2020-04-07 57200 607000 12600 22100 4970 5040 108000 5060 142000 2360 112000 5800 137000 19800 4840 12400 4400 7620 6030 22400
2020-04-08 63700 639000 12900 23300 5200 5280 113000 5490 149000 2520 130000 6290 141000 20700 5320 13100 4840 8150 6210 23200
2020-04-09 70900 671000 13200 24600 5450 5520 118000 5960 155000 2700 152000 6810 145000 21700 5850 13900 5320 8710 6390 24100
2020-04-10 79000 704000 13500 26000 5700 5770 123000 6480 162000 2890 177000 7380 150000 22700 6430 14700 5850 9310 6570 25000
2020-04-11 88100 737000 13800 27400 5970 6020 129000 7030 169000 3100 208000 8000 154000 23800 7070 15500 6440 9960 6760 25900

Confirmed count forecast average (bold black line in graphs) 2020-04-07 to 2020-04-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-06 5797 12161 16563 60500 3793 3660 366614 16284 5172 6906 13621 7558 12262 14867 13837 17130 41090 130703 8384 1817408
2020-04-07 5940 13500 18300 63100 3960 3940 404000 17800 5530 7900 14800 8200 13500 16800 15200 19000 45300 143000 8900 1952000
2020-04-08 6120 15300 20300 66000 4140 4270 449000 19700 5930 9100 16200 8900 15000 19400 16700 21100 49800 158000 9400 2111000
2020-04-09 6290 17300 22600 69100 4330 4620 500000 21800 6350 10400 17700 9700 16600 22300 18300 23500 54700 175000 9900 2280000
2020-04-10 6470 19500 25200 72400 4520 5010 557000 24100 6800 12000 19300 10600 18400 25600 20100 26200 60000 194000 10500 2460000
2020-04-11 6650 22000 28100 75800 4730 5430 621000 26700 7280 13900 21000 11500 20300 29300 22000 29200 65800 215000 11100 2653000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-07 to 2020-04-11

DateUKEUATBEBSCZDEDKESFIFRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-04-06 51608 578836 12297 20814 4794 4822 103374 4681 136675 2176 98010 5364 132547 18803 4413 11730 4057 7206 5865 21657
2020-04-07 56800 607000 12600 22000 4950 5030 108000 5050 142000 2400 112000 5820 136000 19800 4800 12300 4310 7560 6020 22400
2020-04-08 62400 635000 12800 23100 5100 5250 112000 5430 148000 2640 126000 6300 140000 20800 5210 12900 4590 7970 6180 23100
2020-04-09 68600 663000 13000 24300 5260 5480 116000 5850 153000 2910 141000 6820 144000 21800 5650 13500 4870 8380 6330 23700
2020-04-10 75500 691000 13300 25500 5430 5710 120000 6290 159000 3200 157000 7380 149000 22900 6130 14100 5190 8820 6480 24500
2020-04-11 83200 720000 13500 26700 5600 5940 124000 6770 164000 3530 176000 7990 153000 24000 6650 14700 5520 9280 6640 25200

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-04-07 to 2020-04-11

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaIranMalaysiaPhilippinesUSUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-FLUS-GAUS-ILUS-LAUS-MAUS-MIUS-NJUS-NYUS-WAWorld
2020-04-06 5797 12161 16563 60500 3793 3660 366614 16284 5172 6906 13621 7558 12262 14867 13837 17130 41090 130703 8384 1817408
2020-04-07 5940 13400 17800 62800 3950 3860 400000 17700 5510 8200 14700 8100 13400 17000 15700 18800 44900 145000 8900 1970000
2020-04-08 6070 14700 19300 65100 4120 4120 435000 19100 5850 9700 15900 8800 14700 19500 17700 20500 49000 159000 9400 2119000
2020-04-09 6200 16000 21100 67400 4290 4370 473000 20700 6200 11500 17100 9400 16000 22000 19900 22500 53300 174000 9900 2276000
2020-04-10 6320 17600 23000 69800 4470 4630 514000 22400 6560 13600 18400 10100 17500 25000 22400 24600 57900 191000 10400 2439000
2020-04-11 6440 19200 25200 72300 4650 4900 559000 24300 6940 16100 19800 10800 19200 28300 25100 26800 62800 209000 11000 2613000

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed