COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-01-13


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-01-13

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-01-0811-0611-1110-2811-1612-1610-2612-1612-17 --12-0511-0311-1412-1211-292021-01-1011-1212-1811-08 --11-172021-01-072021-01-09 --11-1711-02
Peak daily increment 61769 210456 7110 16471 3443 3762 12285 23975 3361 456 51954 2609 3710 5428 7546 34946 10908 24662 8604 6572 1829 1168 8404
Days since peak 5 68 63 77 58 28 79 28 27 39 71 60 32 45 3 62 26 66 57 6 4 57 72
Last total 3211576 17228740 385750 670249 210416 246405 855600 1993892 185159 2176089 39335 2824473 146688 222117 345710 159144 2319036 889221 1404905 507108 681392 512203 143679 215055 57282 490358
Last daily increment 47525 174093 1917 2927 535 2738 10801 25566 1358 38869 324 23703 668 1135 1358 3553 15773 6086 9126 10556 4424 5337 2092 3576 667 3001
Last week 322157 864990 11020 11594 3157 12512 60860 107331 8322 151185 1563 123258 3911 5269 10874 31487 98675 38431 48023 50575 22434 29919 9134 16871 3490 15594
Previous peak date04-0704-1203-2604-1507-2403-2804-0303-2704-0611-0204-0404-1204-21 --04-1004-1003-2403-31 --03-3104-0906-19 -- --03-2603-27
Previous peak daily increment 4730 54149 808 1470 238 278 283 5663 316 23747 147 30360 86 106 1118 5636 1079 967 358 1076 240 1140
Low between peaks 425 3422 27 79 118 -1029 47 318 19 5 -1069 7 4 9 193 60 158 129 7 15

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-01-13

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)08-02 --2021-01-1006-06 --09-15 --11-2812-1108-0208-1012-20 --12-10 --12-052021-01-08 -- --12-1611-18 -- --12-11 --11-0308-2711-1212-0811-0612-0511-162021-01-10 -- -- -- --11-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-17 --12-0911-2612-12 --11-2012-112021-01-0912-08 --11-2712-11 --11-1312-1311-01 -- -- -- --10-192021-01-1011-19
Peak daily increment 483 9926 7350 92143 13617 10566 8380 4292 27866 720128 695 4015 44707 4984 794 21992 245 4362 1493 12560 6415 3251 3949 7920 6763 5669 3649 1163 2132 3072 801 2333 2653 15838 17473 1537 10366 1362 7919 26264 12345 1491 800
Days since peak 164 3 221 120 46 33 164 156 24 34 39 5 28 56 33 71 139 62 36 68 39 58 3 47 55 60 5 57 35 48 32 54 33 4 36 47 33 61 31 73 86 3 55
Last total 28660 8256536 686211 652525 1831980 10512093 858043 1305339 1571901 1040231 492700 3434934 1278303 2355839 23077247 50604 410995 259339 641727 2843062 366744 219747 32600 67018 1514231 750644 23663 300241 152363 1045884 574119 252990 313281 355427 424841 314867 31124 547707 439925 407822 243899 87653 641069 95135 177891 53059 601216 155602 253985 1179235 799639 341249 129109 746002 365378 104195 628024 2040751 239527 412545 9360 279744 558020 104392 48289
Last daily increment 10 60899 7139 3390 15898 16946 11278 6317 15873 2881 1442 22544 18555 9554 238295 292 3147 2491 5628 38399 2437 3503 177 726 13933 8527 93 1847 1090 5854 3642 4344 4553 2898 5171 2516 814 3145 1536 2069 1942 576 5094 167 1510 1105 7886 1089 1143 14703 6701 3891 1329 8008 6021 452 4356 26106 3288 4598 121 2628 2771 1189 217
Last week 89 294863 46518 23349 94633 98676 60320 37076 78332 18213 10617 137101 107713 59737 1441756 1613 21765 16186 57142 266707 13848 17744 1850 4218 87656 57363 1052 7880 5190 37974 27620 14619 21852 17790 34258 18993 3501 17253 10798 15623 15664 2903 48769 979 5560 4795 35700 7183 13189 97379 46571 26318 8024 47997 27266 2063 29071 130660 12423 29866 965 17163 17512 8390 2121
Previous peak date03-2808-0405-03 -- -- -- --04-0110-05 -- --05-0907-1604-14 -- --07-16 --07-0207-2004-2404-2005-0110-0207-1607-30 --08-2709-0909-04 --04-30 --07-2004-1705-1905-2204-06 -- --07-24 -- -- --05-0105-0204-0707-2207-1904-0104-19 -- --04-0907-1408-2706-0207-15 --05-26 --07-18 --05-27 --
Previous peak daily increment 360 45272 1987 2860 22834 10924 12481 4816 1851 3571 9259 729 1209 190 409 11207 3327 1641 986 3932 303 2105 2171 1100 50 1624 1273 441 89 4368 286 1108 11249 1004 1624 1922 465 1079 9910 1077 847 51
Low between peaks 7 291 1048 4599 4742 -708 882 3131 179 126 1239 721 283 1766 95 153 463 142 19 95 298 584 386 422 232 468 3721 21

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-14 to 2021-01-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-13 3211576 17228740 385750 670249 210416 246405 855600 1993892 185159 2176089 39335 2824473 146688 222117 345710 159144 2319036 889221 1404905 507108 681392 512203 143679 215055 57282 490358
2021-01-14 3273000 17324000 388400 671900 212200 251800 866600 2024000 186200 2183000 39570 2839000 147400 224300 347600 167300 2332000 895200 1416000 515200 685500 520300 145500 217300 57860 496700
2021-01-15 3330000 17484000 390300 673800 212800 254200 879200 2036000 187200 2202000 39820 2852000 147900 225400 350000 174500 2350000 901000 1424000 522500 689700 524900 147300 220800 58410 498300
2021-01-16 3384000 17592000 392100 675200 213200 255900 888800 2053000 188200 2223000 40070 2867000 148500 226300 352000 179700 2366000 906800 1433000 529700 692700 524900 148500 223900 58960 498300
2021-01-17 3433000 17671000 393500 676300 213500 257500 897600 2057000 189200 2242000 40230 2880000 148800 227300 353300 186100 2381000 912400 1440000 536500 695200 524900 149500 226000 59500 498300
2021-01-18 3483000 17781000 394900 677100 214200 259000 900800 2069000 190200 2262000 40400 2894000 149300 227300 354300 192500 2392000 918100 1444000 543100 697300 525100 150000 226800 60040 505100
2021-01-19 3530000 17935000 396500 678800 215200 260200 910700 2091000 191300 2282000 40630 2908000 150000 228100 355000 197100 2406000 923800 1449000 549600 701100 547500 151900 229200 60580 508100
2021-01-20 3579000 18099000 398400 681700 215900 263300 922000 2117000 192300 2302000 40940 2922000 150700 229400 356500 202000 2422000 929500 1460000 556100 705500 551100 154100 233100 61120 511500

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-01-14 to 2021-01-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-13 8256536 686211 652525 1831980 10512093 858043 1305339 1571901 1040231 492700 3434934 1278303 2355839 23077247 50604 410995 259339 641727 2843062 366744 219747 32600 67018 1514231 750644 23663 300241 152363 1045884 574119 252990 313281 355427 424841 314867 31124 547707 439925 407822 243899 87653 641069 95135 177891 53059 601216 155602 253985 1179235 799639 341249 129109 746002 365378 104195 628024 2040751 239527 412545 9360 279744 558020 104392 48289
2021-01-14 8288000 693300 656100 1854000 10534000 867500 1311000 1575000 1040000 494000 3457000 1294000 2370000 23297000 50880 415200 261500 659500 2883000 369600 220800 32870 67710 1528000 754400 23760 301900 153500 1052000 579500 253000 316400 358700 429900 318600 31880 549800 441600 410300 245700 88100 644800 95520 178900 53800 608200 157100 256100 1191000 806700 342100 129500 753400 372600 104700 633500 2060000 241500 418800 9490 282000 560600 105600 48290
2021-01-15 8331000 700100 660000 1875000 10540000 878000 1317000 1588000 1043000 495300 3478000 1314000 2384000 23511000 51160 419800 264700 671300 2921000 372500 223000 33130 68400 1541000 765700 24030 303300 154100 1058000 585400 257400 319400 361000 434800 322300 32580 552100 443300 412700 248100 88520 652300 95760 179800 54520 614800 158600 258100 1209000 813700 345900 130600 760700 376500 105000 638800 2079000 243400 424100 9620 284200 564000 107500 48640
2021-01-16 8378000 707100 664000 1892000 10570000 887400 1323000 1600000 1043000 496600 3500000 1333000 2397000 23722000 51420 423600 267100 682800 2960000 374700 225400 33420 69070 1554000 774900 24220 304400 154900 1063000 590500 257500 322400 361100 439600 325900 33010 556600 445000 415100 250000 88950 665500 95840 180500 55240 621600 159800 260100 1224000 820700 350400 132400 767900 381700 105400 643900 2097000 245300 429100 9750 286500 566600 109100 48800
2021-01-17 8402000 713900 666700 1908000 10585000 895400 1328000 1608000 1044000 497800 3521000 1347000 2410000 23931000 51690 426000 269700 693400 2998000 376600 227700 33720 69740 1567000 780800 24370 304900 155300 1069000 594400 257500 325300 365900 444300 328900 33300 556600 446700 417400 251800 89360 672700 95970 181000 55950 627400 160800 262100 1237000 827600 356300 133600 775100 386900 105800 649000 2115000 247200 434500 9870 288700 568600 110400 48930
2021-01-18 8426000 720800 670200 1924000 10597000 902300 1334000 1615000 1050000 499100 3542000 1361000 2423000 24141000 51950 427900 270900 703700 3037000 378100 230100 33870 70410 1580000 786700 24470 306000 155900 1075000 597500 262500 328300 366900 449100 331800 33550 561000 448300 419800 253400 89780 677600 96100 181600 56660 632200 161500 264100 1250000 834500 359600 134400 782200 389600 105900 654100 2133000 249000 438800 9990 291000 570100 111300 49410
2021-01-19 8486000 727800 673000 1940000 10611000 910100 1340000 1628000 1052000 500300 3563000 1375000 2437000 24351000 52220 431900 274200 713800 3075000 379900 232500 34180 71080 1593000 795700 24560 307600 157100 1081000 600500 262500 331200 371500 453900 334400 34170 563900 450000 422200 254900 90190 683800 96240 182600 57370 638000 162400 266100 1263000 841500 361600 135400 789400 390300 106200 659100 2151000 250900 443300 10120 293200 573400 112300 49930
2021-01-20 8539000 734700 676300 1955000 10627000 917800 1346000 1642000 1054000 501600 3585000 1393000 2450000 24563000 52480 435400 276800 723900 3114000 382300 234900 34290 71760 1606000 802900 24650 309400 158100 1086000 604700 266700 334100 375400 458700 337100 34900 567200 451700 424600 257100 90610 689300 96450 184100 58090 645000 163600 268200 1277000 848500 365100 136500 796600 394800 106700 664200 2169000 252800 448200 10240 295500 576300 113600 50150

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-14 to 2021-01-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-01-13 3211576 17228740 385750 670249 210416 246405 855600 1993892 185159 2176089 39335 2824473 146688 222117 345710 159144 2319036 889221 1404905 507108 681392 512203 143679 215055 57282 490358
2021-01-14 3262000 17389000 388100 672400 211000 249200 870900 2022000 186300 2209000 39550 2839000 147300 223000 348000 164500 2336000 895200 1415000 515500 685600 517500 145700 217900 57970 493500
2021-01-15 3319000 17499000 389900 673900 211500 251700 882500 2032000 187700 2226000 39740 2857000 147900 223600 350500 172100 2351000 901200 1423000 523500 689500 521100 147300 221000 58520 495300
2021-01-16 3376000 17566000 391600 675300 211800 253400 890500 2045000 189000 2240000 39910 2869000 148400 224400 352500 179100 2362000 907000 1432000 531600 692600 522000 148500 223900 59040 496200
2021-01-17 3432000 17613000 393000 676400 212000 254800 897600 2050000 190300 2253000 40030 2881000 148800 225100 353800 186900 2372000 912600 1439000 539700 695500 522900 149800 226500 59510 497100
2021-01-18 3489000 17663000 394300 677500 212500 256600 900500 2059000 191600 2270000 40150 2892000 149300 225400 354700 194900 2377000 918100 1444000 547900 698000 523700 150800 228200 59950 501500
2021-01-19 3551000 17735000 395900 678700 213400 258100 907600 2072000 193000 2287000 40310 2904000 150000 226200 355400 203200 2384000 923600 1450000 556200 701500 538900 152200 230800 60560 504100
2021-01-20 3611000 17820000 398000 680400 214100 262100 921400 2089000 194500 2300000 40500 2918000 150700 227300 356800 211900 2394000 929000 1461000 564700 705900 541200 154100 234300 61160 507100

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-01-14 to 2021-01-20

DateBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-01-13 8256536 686211 652525 1831980 10512093 858043 1305339 1571901 1040231 492700 3434934 1278303 2355839 23077247 50604 410995 259339 641727 2843062 366744 219747 32600 67018 1514231 750644 23663 300241 152363 1045884 574119 252990 313281 355427 424841 314867 31124 547707 439925 407822 243899 87653 641069 95135 177891 53059 601216 155602 253985 1179235 799639 341249 129109 746002 365378 104195 628024 2040751 239527 412545 9360 279744 558020 104392 48289
2021-01-14 8333000 693000 656300 1848000 10522000 868300 1311000 1585000 1042000 494000 3453000 1296000 2363000 23329000 50860 415000 262200 650600 2886000 369600 223200 32840 67710 1529000 759700 23850 302000 153300 1053000 579400 253900 316800 359100 430600 317700 31800 550200 441500 410800 245100 88160 649300 95350 179000 53880 607700 157300 256300 1195000 808200 345100 130300 754600 370100 104600 633000 2063000 241900 417400 9540 282800 562100 105600 48610
2021-01-15 8373000 699900 660400 1863000 10524000 877700 1316000 1597000 1045000 495100 3468000 1315000 2372000 23546000 51140 418900 265100 659700 2919000 372400 225600 33050 68430 1542000 769700 24070 303300 154000 1060000 584700 256900 320100 361300 435200 320800 32390 552300 443300 413700 247700 88620 656400 95580 179900 54610 613300 158800 258600 1211000 814200 348900 131400 762600 374600 104800 638200 2079000 243900 422300 9670 285000 565000 107300 48900
2021-01-16 8415000 706900 664400 1877000 10541000 886800 1320000 1608000 1046000 496200 3480000 1334000 2381000 23780000 51420 422400 267500 668700 2961000 374600 227900 33260 69140 1557000 778300 24250 304500 154800 1066000 589700 257900 323700 362100 440300 323700 32840 556300 445000 416400 249800 89080 670400 95710 180700 55350 619000 160000 260800 1226000 821900 353100 132900 770300 379600 105200 643500 2095000 245900 427200 9830 287100 567300 108900 49120
2021-01-17 8438000 714000 667500 1891000 10548000 895400 1324000 1617000 1047000 497100 3492000 1351000 2391000 23970000 51700 424700 270100 677600 2995000 376400 230000 33480 69860 1569000 785300 24400 305300 155400 1071000 594100 258800 327000 365900 444700 325900 33230 556900 446800 418800 251800 89450 678000 95850 181300 56100 624300 160900 263000 1241000 827800 358100 134100 776600 384800 105600 648700 2110000 247800 432100 9970 288700 569100 110300 49340
2021-01-18 8457000 721900 670800 1904000 10555000 903100 1327000 1625000 1050000 498100 3504000 1367000 2405000 24131000 51990 426400 271700 686200 3023000 377800 233000 33650 70590 1580000 791600 24520 306500 156100 1076000 597800 261600 330000 367200 448500 327800 33640 560700 448600 420900 253700 89800 682300 95980 182000 56850 629100 161600 264600 1255000 833500 361500 135000 782900 389100 105700 653500 2122000 249500 436900 10070 291100 570000 111400 49670
2021-01-19 8498000 729800 673800 1918000 10565000 910800 1331000 1636000 1052000 499000 3515000 1384000 2417000 24330000 52270 429700 274300 694600 3051000 379900 235500 33850 71320 1594000 799500 24610 307800 157100 1082000 601600 263000 333100 370100 452200 329500 34180 563000 450400 423300 255800 90260 686800 96190 183000 57610 634600 162500 266800 1270000 839400 364300 136000 790300 392500 106000 658200 2144000 251600 441900 10210 293000 572400 112700 50000
2021-01-20 8545000 737400 677000 1932000 10575000 919100 1334000 1646000 1053000 499900 3525000 1404000 2428000 24555000 52560 433200 277200 702900 3081000 382300 237800 34030 72070 1609000 806700 24710 309400 158100 1088000 606400 266200 336800 374300 457000 331800 34780 566500 452200 425700 258500 90780 692700 96440 184200 58380 640400 163800 269000 1285000 845500 367700 137000 798000 397800 106500 663600 2163000 253700 446900 10330 294700 575200 114200 50230

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed