COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2021-09-23


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2021-09-23

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-07-172021-07-272021-03-252021-03-212021-03-2212-182021-03-022021-04-192021-03-102021-07-262021-08-122021-04-112021-08-232021-04-132021-03-222021-08-212021-08-232021-07-152021-03-262021-07-202021-03-252021-04-132021-09-162021-08-182021-09-012021-09-07
Peak daily increment 43876 69532 3238 4734 3757 3824 12260 20854 1343 26571 760 41469 3336 2177 8670 1876 6581 9508 27926 3219 5691 6122 1000 76 1376 5004
Days since peak 68 58 182 186 185 279 205 157 197 59 42 165 31 163 185 33 31 70 181 65 182 163 7 36 22 16
Last total 7565867 37290000 730403 1231523 489423 550812 1687973 4183672 355944 4943855 138068 6810965 641022 396470 819547 380720 4649906 1991628 2900862 1064876 1172981 1148641 287278 405931 185330 831881
Last daily increment 35764 52982 1707 2287 1835 2687 525 10315 341 3031 474 5835 2101 1373 526 1354 4053 1823 974 885 7095 762 1011 949 721 1630
Last week 194566 265123 9948 11709 8646 11008 2538 46610 1876 14309 2253 32119 13708 6816 2388 8033 22207 10376 4263 4444 33476 3659 5591 4681 4135 8803
Previous peak date2021-01-0811-0611-1110-2811-1603-2710-2912-1612-182021-01-252021-03-1811-022021-04-0712-1211-292021-01-0811-1212-1811-242021-01-2311-172021-01-0510-292021-01-0311-1711-02
Previous peak daily increment 57011 209948 7102 16480 3440 275 12260 23909 3421 37838 701 51646 2956 3555 5428 5772 34934 11038 24706 12346 8601 8622 1744 2814 1196 8395
Low between peaks -2834 -206811 1324 1726 429 -1016 3514 7362 362 -30661 67 9751 363 312 1056 219 720 416 5006 344 2309 2589 28 24 165 78

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2021-09-23

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2021-09-172021-09-182021-04-122021-06-042021-06-262021-05-052021-07-152021-08-122021-08-112021-04-102021-09-202021-07-132021-07-022021-04-162021-09-07 --2021-08-262021-08-132021-08-262021-08-202021-09-132021-01-11 --2021-05-192021-09-202021-08-232021-08-29 --2021-09-022021-09-072021-09-07 --2021-09-142021-08-092021-01-102021-09-012021-04-142021-04-122021-04-102021-03-112021-08-23 --2021-09-132021-09-152021-04-022021-09-132021-01-132021-08-232021-09-142021-03-242021-09-16 --2021-08-2312-102021-09-062021-09-132021-09-072021-01-122021-09-132021-09-13 --2021-08-232021-08-26 --2021-09-13
Peak daily increment 1782 95712 8651 7273 29826 387083 47189 38197 18312 8699 20634 24497 19354 58966 168083 5826 2236 3829 15360 1914 2581 591 49355 9324 943 1023 3985 4042 4213 5922 5458 1141 454 7868 2115 57408 3766 6873 459 914 386 5865 888 1137 20372 7015 2372 10186 5159 457 15195 21848 1038 3653 3393 2000 525
Days since peak 6 5 164 111 89 141 70 42 43 166 3 72 83 160 16 28 41 28 34 10 255 127 3 31 25 21 16 16 9 45 256 22 162 164 166 196 31 10 8 174 10 253 31 9 183 7 31 287 17 10 16 254 10 10 31 28 10
Last total 93942 21308178 1602413 1649409 4946811 33563421 4201559 5493591 3608976 2170475 2434753 7248572 2892081 6960267 42669114 105450 781915 484426 1075876 4665894 658813 385950 60018 129597 3525735 1507794 74606 440653 248091 1608628 944708 402844 670075 732978 743030 523760 85871 1096184 693809 753632 481397 145000 1362917 127912 221235 115932 1140930 243246 415424 2391925 1373275 597833 318914 1397755 838079 142330 1155610 3994501 369764 846979 32347 635687 790569 228983 87351
Last daily increment 1764 24611 4624 859 1608 0 2881 16362 11808 1048 17334 21023 2783 27844 125604 1304 3366 1519 3013 6946 2056 592 169 631 0 4385 437 0 1344 3500 3588 34 4090 1516 1878 1405 721 0 2289 1976 2071 1174 6044 629 0 727 2280 717 1053 5052 7475 0 1807 5489 3199 585 3880 11403 986 3767 289 4070 3472 1477 757
Last week 9886 227959 25078 3006 9215 146031 16415 97578 55993 6095 110278 118327 15018 165597 675325 5492 17076 6838 14272 45348 10262 2916 1167 2633 0 27368 2469 12155 6835 18452 18104 5002 20393 7871 9345 6976 2550 15877 12711 9985 7984 5288 32678 2802 0 2350 12976 3343 5320 29373 37214 13440 9073 27508 18875 2374 24982 69365 5081 19782 1211 16595 18697 9544 3393
Previous peak date08-022021-03-242021-01-0706-062021-01-1609-152021-01-282021-04-1810-0508-022021-04-0212-222021-01-0612-102021-01-0912-052021-01-052021-01-062021-01-0312-1611-1804-202021-01-1012-062021-07-2311-0308-2711-1212-0811-0612-0511-232021-01-0911-1604-172021-01-092021-01-1311-2711-1911-142021-01-0811-182021-01-0212-0911-2612-1104-0811-2012-092021-01-0812-082021-01-0911-2704-092021-01-1311-1312-1411-0111-142021-01-172021-04-0112-0610-192021-01-0111-19
Previous peak daily increment 483 74829 7805 7360 17013 92142 12372 23864 23278 8364 10772 27996 17714 720227 239195 717 3862 2815 9265 43158 4983 1012 285 792 24737 22916 245 4364 1492 12552 6415 3322 3603 3876 2172 3015 579 7869 6769 5848 2963 1157 8240 2118 3013 793 4272 2334 2623 15822 17150 3935 1549 1625 4871 1359 7643 27059 2491 6324 192 3223 12274 1433 801
Low between peaks 5 16999 2897 1343 3453 11267 3789 8820 2152 1487 5189 8232 937 6214 11259 110 156 412 -611 374 72 124 -15702 277 38 64 207 240 108 239 -15 54 140 989 760 255 102 225 11 233 18 115 59 201 5685 230 131 424 82 6 48 9157 148 126 329 70 55

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-09-23 7565867 37290000 730403 1231523 489423 550812 1687973 4183672 355944 4943855 138068 6810965 641022 396470 819547 380720 4649906 1991628 2900862 1064876 1172981 1148641 287278 405931 185330 831881
2021-09-24 7597000 37351000 732900 1234000 491100 550900 1689000 4198000 356400 4952000 138800 6827000 643300 396900 819600 381900 4652000 1994000 2902000 1067000 1179000 1151000 287800 406900 186300 838000
2021-09-25 7634000 37402000 734500 1234000 491900 551700 1689000 4209000 356900 4956000 139200 6843000 645600 397600 819600 382700 4655000 1998000 2902000 1068000 1185000 1152000 288600 407800 186900 839500
2021-09-26 7667000 37434000 736100 1234000 492200 552500 1689000 4214000 357400 4958000 139600 6852000 646700 398100 819600 383700 4656000 2001000 2903000 1069000 1190000 1152000 289000 408500 187300 840200
2021-09-27 7698000 37469000 737200 1239000 494100 553100 1690000 4221000 357800 4965000 139700 6855000 648600 398200 820100 384800 4657000 2003000 2903000 1069000 1195000 1152000 289000 408800 188200 845100
2021-09-28 7729000 37520000 738300 1240000 496000 554800 1690000 4230000 358200 4970000 140400 6865000 652000 398900 820300 385900 4658000 2006000 2904000 1069000 1200000 1155000 290100 409600 188900 847300
2021-09-29 7759000 37566000 740400 1243000 497200 556700 1691000 4239000 358600 4973000 140900 6870000 654000 400600 820700 387100 4660000 2008000 2905000 1070000 1206000 1156000 291300 410700 189800 849900
2021-09-30 7789000 37620000 742000 1245000 498800 558900 1691000 4251000 359000 4978000 141300 6880000 656000 401600 821100 388200 4664000 2011000 2906000 1071000 1211000 1157000 292300 411500 190600 851300

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-23 93942 21308178 1602413 1649409 4946811 33563421 4201559 5493591 3608976 2170475 2434753 7248572 2892081 6960267 42669114 105450 781915 484426 1075876 4665894 658813 385950 60018 129597 1507794 74606 440653 248091 1608628 944708 402844 670075 732978 743030 523760 85871 1096184 693809 753632 481397 145000 1362917 127912 115932 1140930 243246 415424 2391925 1373275 597833 318914 1397755 838079 142330 1155610 3994501 369764 846979 32347 635687 790569 228983 87351
2021-09-24 94100 21317000 1607000 1650000 4949000 33571000 4213000 5515000 3619000 2171000 2458000 7267000 2895000 6985000 42939000 106400 787800 487200 1078000 4674000 661400 387200 60300 130000 1523000 75550 443300 249600 1616000 952700 408200 677900 736100 745400 524900 86320 1101000 695300 756700 485400 146100 1375000 128300 116300 1143000 244600 417600 2397000 1380000 607700 322500 1403000 847500 143000 1171000 4027000 371600 851100 32690 641400 791600 232300 87800
2021-09-25 95500 21356000 1608000 1650000 4951000 33578000 4221000 5528000 3631000 2172000 2480000 7285000 2896000 7008000 43025000 107300 792500 489300 1082000 4688000 661400 387200 60310 130500 1525000 76330 443300 250100 1616000 952700 408300 677900 736100 745400 526000 86740 1101000 695300 759000 486100 146100 1375000 128700 116300 1145000 244600 417600 2400000 1385000 609700 322700 1407000 849100 143000 1174000 4042000 371600 851100 32960 641600 791600 234900 87800
2021-09-26 96800 21366000 1609000 1651000 4953000 33585000 4225000 5545000 3645000 2173000 2499000 7304000 2897000 7032000 43065000 108200 794600 490200 1084000 4699000 661400 387200 60320 130900 1526000 76910 443300 250200 1616000 952700 408700 677900 736100 745400 526800 86740 1101000 695300 760300 486400 146200 1375000 128800 116300 1147000 244600 417600 2406000 1391000 610700 322700 1412000 849400 143000 1176000 4046000 371600 851100 33230 641700 791600 236900 87800
2021-09-27 98100 21366000 1616000 1651000 4954000 33592000 4229000 5563000 3650000 2174000 2517000 7321000 2897000 7056000 43271000 109200 796800 490800 1087000 4709000 666100 388200 60970 131200 1537000 77370 443300 251300 1624000 960000 411400 685100 736100 748600 527800 86740 1105000 696200 761300 489900 147600 1390000 128900 117000 1148000 245900 419600 2410000 1397000 612100 326000 1417000 862900 143400 1189000 4061000 373500 857700 33410 648400 791600 238200 88960
2021-09-28 99400 21366000 1620000 1651000 4956000 33599000 4232000 5579000 3663000 2174000 2533000 7337000 2898000 7081000 43402000 110200 800300 492200 1089000 4718000 667800 388900 61300 131500 1546000 77720 443800 253000 1628000 963900 411400 689400 738000 750300 528700 87100 1106000 700900 763100 491500 148800 1396000 129400 117300 1150000 246700 421000 2414000 1403000 615000 328000 1421000 865600 144100 1191000 4083000 374400 859800 33580 651900 791600 239900 89590
2021-09-29 100700 21393000 1624000 1651000 4958000 33606000 4234000 5595000 3674000 2175000 2547000 7355000 2899000 7107000 43539000 111200 803200 493600 1092000 4726000 669400 389300 61480 131700 1550000 77920 444900 254300 1632000 967600 414800 693900 740800 752100 529700 87770 1113000 703300 765100 492900 150200 1402000 130100 117700 1152000 247300 421900 2418000 1409000 615000 330200 1426000 867800 144700 1199000 4101000 375500 862800 33760 654400 792800 241800 90150
2021-09-30 102000 21420000 1628000 1652000 4959000 33613000 4236000 5611000 3684000 2176000 2565000 7374000 2902000 7133000 43677000 112200 806500 495100 1094000 4734000 671300 390000 61610 132200 1553000 78350 447200 255500 1635000 971400 414800 698100 742600 753600 530900 88380 1113000 705400 767100 495100 151200 1408000 130700 118300 1155000 247800 422900 2423000 1415000 615000 332000 1431000 871300 145300 1201000 4115000 376300 866600 33940 657700 797700 243300 90830

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2021-09-23 7565867 37290000 730403 1231523 489423 550812 1687973 4183672 355944 4943855 138068 6810965 641022 396470 819547 380720 4649906 1991628 2900862 1064876 1172981 1148641 287278 405931 185330 831881
2021-09-24 7597000 37326000 732500 1234000 490900 552600 1688000 4189000 356200 4947000 138500 6816000 643300 397700 819900 382000 4653000 1993000 2902000 1066000 1179000 1149000 288300 406900 186000 833700
2021-09-25 7622000 37348000 734200 1234000 491600 554100 1689000 4193000 356500 4948000 138700 6824000 645200 398800 820000 383100 4655000 1995000 2902000 1066000 1183000 1149000 289200 407500 186400 834500
2021-09-26 7647000 37363000 735700 1235000 492000 555200 1689000 4195000 356800 4949000 138900 6829000 646500 399700 820000 384200 4656000 1997000 2903000 1067000 1187000 1149000 289900 408100 186700 835000
2021-09-27 7673000 37379000 736800 1238000 493400 556100 1689000 4198000 357100 4953000 138900 6831000 648300 400300 820500 385300 4657000 1998000 2903000 1067000 1191000 1149000 290300 408500 187300 837100
2021-09-28 7697000 37406000 737900 1239000 494700 557700 1690000 4203000 357300 4956000 139300 6837000 651200 401200 820600 386500 4659000 2000000 2904000 1068000 1196000 1151000 291000 409100 187800 838300
2021-09-29 7722000 37430000 739600 1241000 495600 559300 1690000 4209000 357600 4960000 139600 6842000 653100 402300 820800 387700 4661000 2002000 2905000 1068000 1200000 1151000 291800 409800 188400 839900
2021-09-30 7747000 37460000 741100 1243000 496700 561000 1690000 4216000 357900 4963000 139800 6850000 655000 403300 821100 388900 4663000 2003000 2905000 1069000 1204000 1152000 292500 410400 188900 841400

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2021-09-24 to 2021-09-30

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2021-09-23 93942 21308178 1602413 1649409 4946811 33563421 4201559 5493591 3608976 2170475 2434753 7248572 2892081 6960267 42669114 105450 781915 484426 1075876 4665894 658813 385950 60018 129597 1507794 74606 440653 248091 1608628 944708 402844 670075 732978 743030 523760 85871 1096184 693809 753632 481397 145000 1362917 127912 115932 1140930 243246 415424 2391925 1373275 597833 318914 1397755 838079 142330 1155610 3994501 369764 846979 32347 635687 790569 228983 87351
2021-09-24 95500 21322000 1606000 1650000 4948000 33575000 4207000 5508000 3616000 2171000 2453000 7264000 2894000 6987000 42859000 106400 784700 485800 1078000 4672000 660800 386800 60150 130100 1514000 75190 442500 249500 1612000 948700 406700 674500 734300 744600 525200 86490 1101000 696100 755700 483300 146200 1371000 128500 116400 1143000 244000 416800 2397000 1380000 599800 320800 1403000 842100 142800 1162000 4009000 370900 850300 32570 639000 793600 230800 87890
2021-09-25 96700 21387000 1609000 1651000 4950000 33584000 4212000 5515000 3623000 2172000 2473000 7273000 2897000 7012000 42895000 107100 787400 487000 1081000 4678000 661000 387100 60160 130600 1515000 75780 443500 250400 1613000 950300 409700 676400 734300 744900 526100 86920 1101000 697200 757600 484000 146300 1371000 128900 116600 1145000 244000 417000 2401000 1385000 601400 321600 1407000 843500 142800 1165000 4015000 371400 851500 32750 639200 794100 232700 88060
2021-09-26 97900 21396000 1611000 1651000 4951000 33594000 4215000 5524000 3634000 2173000 2491000 7282000 2899000 7037000 42915000 107900 788600 487600 1083000 4683000 661200 387300 60170 131000 1516000 76320 444300 251100 1614000 951900 412700 678300 734300 745100 526800 87060 1102000 698300 759100 484700 146400 1371000 129200 116800 1147000 244000 417300 2406000 1388000 603000 322300 1411000 844500 142900 1167000 4016000 371900 852700 32950 639400 794600 234400 88220
2021-09-27 99000 21402000 1616000 1651000 4952000 33603000 4218000 5535000 3639000 2173000 2508000 7291000 2900000 7063000 43100000 108800 789900 488000 1085000 4688000 664700 388100 60600 131400 1524000 76780 445300 252200 1619000 957000 416300 683800 734800 747000 527600 87180 1106000 700000 760500 486800 147200 1385000 129500 117400 1149000 245000 419000 2411000 1392000 604900 324500 1415000 854300 143000 1178000 4025000 373300 857700 33070 643300 797300 235800 89130
2021-09-28 100300 21409000 1619000 1652000 4954000 33612000 4221000 5545000 3650000 2174000 2524000 7299000 2903000 7088000 43221000 109600 792000 488900 1087000 4692000 666000 388700 60860 131700 1532000 77190 446400 253600 1623000 960700 417700 687800 736600 748000 528200 87460 1107000 703300 762200 488300 148100 1393000 129900 117700 1150000 245700 420300 2415000 1396000 606700 326300 1419000 858800 143500 1184000 4038000 374300 860100 33180 646000 799500 237500 89670
2021-09-29 101600 21425000 1622000 1652000 4955000 33622000 4224000 5554000 3660000 2175000 2540000 7307000 2906000 7114000 43360000 110500 794200 490000 1089000 4696000 667400 389200 61000 132100 1537000 77590 448600 254800 1627000 964400 420200 692100 739400 749200 528900 87880 1112000 705500 764200 489800 148900 1400000 130500 118200 1153000 246200 421400 2419000 1401000 611200 328200 1423000 861500 144000 1190000 4054000 375300 862700 33310 648200 800700 239100 90170
2021-09-30 102800 21445000 1626000 1653000 4957000 33631000 4227000 5564000 3669000 2175000 2558000 7316000 2909000 7140000 43499000 111400 796600 491100 1092000 4700000 668800 389900 61160 132500 1542000 78040 450900 256000 1631000 968200 421600 696400 741200 750300 529700 88320 1112000 707500 766200 491700 149700 1406000 131000 118600 1155000 246800 422600 2424000 1405000 614000 330000 1428000 866100 144400 1195000 4067000 376400 865900 33520 650600 804200 240800 90740

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed