COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2022-05-13


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2022-05-13

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-04-192022-01-272022-03-182022-01-242022-01-252022-02-052022-01-272022-03-242022-01-282022-01-172022-04-212022-04-052022-01-042022-01-182022-01-242022-03-212022-01-122022-02-072022-01-282022-03-252022-02-012022-01-252022-02-022022-02-102022-02-012022-01-24
Peak daily increment 37336 1226248 45852 49623 8686 19196 35043 233182 44590 139098 19311 141022 34255 8554 16049 7176 181768 321030 46977 25257 29129 40109 14275 22199 20182 36137
Days since peak 24 106 56 109 108 97 106 50 105 116 22 38 129 115 109 53 121 95 105 49 101 108 100 92 101 109
Last total 22180207 139153386 4205380 4116397 1161351 1878527 3915703 25723697 3127256 12127122 1069740 28334484 3384982 1130562 1909948 1535451 16993813 8151187 6002863 4015440 2902270 2504894 1018900 2538274 1429630 3649155
Last daily increment 6587 218393 4555 0 313 759 472 61859 765 68234 0 28550 4388 726 0 2680 39029 1264 469 0 588 0 602 378 277 0
Last week 66173 1204927 27452 28061 2201 5373 3342 427747 4517 118063 16973 187597 26398 3226 6748 13088 226040 9413 2646 79508 4012 1804 3444 2568 1674 12929
Previous peak date2022-01-31 --2021-11-192021-11-222021-10-252021-06-082021-11-302021-12-032021-08-182021-07-262022-01-112022-01-182021-06-052021-06-052021-11-222022-01-032021-08-212021-07-142021-11-302022-01-272021-10-202021-09-012021-11-112021-11-262021-09-032021-09-07
Previous peak daily increment 711183 13601 17433 4795 326 18453 59359 991 26576 8391 348862 893 178 10225 23008 6504 9508 23866 52990 14737 1245 3272 11187 1417 5638
Low between peaks 18032 1378 5917 1340 94 4084 27574 327 1518 1374 47730 385 67 1865 2841 2498 1257 11029 7039 301 534 1054 2782 410 792

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2022-05-13

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date (mm-dd)2022-03-312022-01-282022-04-132022-02-082022-01-152022-01-212022-02-172022-02-082022-04-072022-01-192022-01-162022-02-122021-12-122022-02-042022-01-142022-01-192022-01-162022-01-132022-03-312022-01-092022-01-102022-01-102022-04-122022-01-132022-05-062022-01-102022-05-042022-01-122022-01-242022-01-102022-01-172022-01-142022-01-182022-01-142022-01-102022-01-032022-02-152022-05-042022-01-242022-01-042022-01-032022-01-242022-01-182022-01-172022-02-282022-01-182022-04-102022-04-282022-01-192022-01-032022-01-152022-01-192022-01-182022-04-282022-01-182022-01-192022-01-182022-01-132022-01-182022-01-102022-03-032022-05-022022-04-082022-01-032022-01-18
Peak daily increment 57218 182433 40217 36050 30553 300525 54981 35342 21585 47146 33452 186181 20848 100070 792818 2786 27264 8269 4418 125165 24571 10476 466 3036 33879 46066 1573 7758 2780 32479 15103 13928 12332 15200 21044 13446 8196 3633 12535 12288 7895 2224 59694 2126 17642 7668 1897 237 16077 83161 33258 17515 9944 1751 19407 5132 15615 60465 13669 20181 10786 3935 668 5238 1601
Days since peak 43 105 30 94 118 112 85 94 36 114 117 90 152 98 119 114 117 120 43 124 123 123 31 120 7 123 9 121 109 123 116 119 115 119 123 130 87 9 109 129 130 109 115 116 74 115 33 15 114 130 118 114 115 15 115 114 115 120 115 123 71 11 35 130 115
Last total 6548368 30664739 3836099 3595968 6095316 43119112 6050211 7227428 5745652 3571516 3687748 17984104 3879434 15051761 82421624 255131 1304710 811249 2030925 9346491 1407276 777063 144675 266366 5999190 2439344 251759 768354 447913 3209251 1713834 781592 1330569 1177867 1655179 1051938 254385 2427781 1478208 1312762 799608 275113 2691805 242462 473334 312309 2309888 519369 717898 5279558 2724041 1043373 738830 2850343 1481975 238635 1950515 6792135 701563 1733188 126975 1527142 1639365 505528 157031
Last daily increment 51486 25609 7771 4871 0 2858 335 385 0 355 181 4832 8349 1534 95937 0 419 272 0 22939 1879 2374 732 588 0 0 0 0 373 8425 2566 2522 0 629 4629 2467 783 0 2914 328 0 515 0 723 0 598 6514 384 0 2355 0 0 1644 0 0 0 0 5898 0 3295 380 6327 2912 491 0
Last week 301894 106209 30183 19829 1671 16918 2007 2727 5972 2190 880 27632 43532 9862 563126 1579 2313 1204 5490 61629 17578 13211 2732 2867 0 8542 5649 3170 1057 40035 6749 2863 3958 3345 25666 12162 3744 27534 15065 2428 1686 515 18479 723 -4918 4037 27459 2183 3183 51095 15970 2144 9418 21316 4630 450 4539 21134 2914 17710 2258 22342 16278 2598 286
Previous peak date2022-01-122021-09-182021-12-292021-11-132021-06-262021-06-082021-07-152021-08-122022-01-192021-06-052021-09-102021-11-032021-07-03 --2021-08-302021-09-272021-08-262021-08-132022-01-172021-08-20 --2021-09-132021-12-272021-09-232021-12-312021-08-302022-01-192021-11-022021-09-292021-08-302021-08-302021-09-082021-09-012021-08-092021-06-052021-06-082021-06-062022-01-192021-06-052021-08-032021-08-162021-09-272021-09-132021-09-302021-09-252021-11-022022-01-062022-01-182021-09-13 --2021-09-162021-09-012021-08-232022-01-112021-09-062021-09-132021-09-102021-09-082021-11-152021-09-132021-11-292022-01-182022-01-172021-09-162021-09-20
Previous peak daily increment 109702 92852 40919 2476 29569 90762 47188 38196 43483 3719 20318 39289 19200 163957 1313 5166 2236 44245 15426 655 3465 466 107931 8907 4415 2877 1290 4100 5243 1581 4325 5922 190 106 58 32109 242 2608 3631 919 6936 598 33157 2331 30365 10240 1142 6892 4762 2270 27642 5397 461 8111 18451 1194 3687 1273 20947 55374 1847 555
Low between peaks 19600 2340 5057 968 1351 4447 143 1388 2342 60 -396 16444 96 70841 44 379 400 584 2886 310 -219 219 282 738 55 -448 236 1989 1567 742 1151 -8 43 47 11 514 64 851 83 88 1585 253 126 652 901 109 408 3348 -7 396 581 -39 175 957 3045 146 1215 52 131 318 318 43

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-14 to 2022-05-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-05-13 22180207 139153386 4205380 4116397 1161351 1878527 3915703 25723697 3127256 12127122 1069740 28334484 3384982 1130562 1909948 1535451 16993813 8151187 6002863 4015440 2902270 2504894 1018900 2538274 1429630 3649155
2022-05-14 22194000 139483000 4213000 4123000 1162000 1880000 3917000 25832000 3129000 12129000 1089000 28429000 3393000 1132000 1910000 1536000 17079000 8154000 6004000 4020000 2903000 2507000 1020000 2541000 1430000 3658000
2022-05-15 22204000 139677000 4219000 4125000 1162000 1881000 3919000 25877000 3130000 12130000 1095000 28496000 3399000 1132000 1911000 1536000 17135000 8158000 6005000 4020000 2904000 2507000 1021000 2543000 1430000 3660000
2022-05-16 22230000 139870000 4224000 4136000 1163000 1882000 3921000 25996000 3130000 12130000 1100000 28516000 3403000 1132000 1912000 1536000 17159000 8162000 6005000 4020000 2905000 2507000 1021000 2543000 1430000 3661000
2022-05-17 22250000 140189000 4229000 4141000 1163000 1884000 3923000 26094000 3131000 12183000 1107000 28563000 3409000 1133000 1913000 1536000 17212000 8167000 6006000 4041000 2906000 2507000 1022000 2544000 1430000 3678000
2022-05-18 22266000 140473000 4235000 4141000 1164000 1885000 3924000 26206000 3133000 12183000 1118000 28619000 3415000 1134000 1918000 1537000 17267000 8173000 6007000 4057000 2906000 2507000 1023000 2547000 1431000 3678000
2022-05-19 22282000 140695000 4240000 4154000 1164000 1886000 3925000 26270000 3133000 12183000 1143000 28653000 3419000 1135000 1918000 1538000 17304000 8179000 6007000 4079000 2907000 2507000 1024000 2547000 1431000 3678000
2022-05-20 22295000 140909000 4244000 4155000 1164000 1887000 3926000 26339000 3134000 12242000 1143000 28688000 3424000 1135000 1918000 1539000 17343000 8184000 6008000 4084000 2908000 2507000 1025000 2548000 1431000 3678000

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2022-05-14 to 2022-05-20

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-05-13 6548368 30664739 3836099 3595968 6095316 43119112 6050211 7227428 5745652 3571516 3687748 17984104 3879434 15051761 82421624 255131 1304710 811249 2030925 9346491 1407276 777063 144675 266366 2439344 251759 768354 447913 3209251 1713834 781592 1330569 1177867 1655179 1051938 254385 2427781 1478208 1312762 799608 275113 2691805 242462 312309 2309888 519369 717898 5279558 2724041 1043373 738830 2850343 1481975 238635 1950515 6792135 701563 1733188 126975 1527142 1639365 505528 157031
2022-05-14 6592000 30672000 3847000 3601000 6095000 43122000 6050000 7229000 5746000 3572000 3688000 17988000 3889000 15053000 82422000 255100 1305000 811200 2031000 9346000 1407000 777100 145400 266400 2439000 251800 768400 447900 3209000 1714000 785300 1331000 1179000 1655000 1052000 254900 2428000 1478000 1313000 799900 275700 2692000 243000 312300 2316000 519400 717900 5288000 2725000 1043000 738800 2853000 1483000 238600 1951000 6793000 701600 1733000 127200 1527000 1639000 505500 157200
2022-05-15 6615000 30674000 3853000 3604000 6095000 43124000 6051000 7230000 5746000 3573000 3688000 17993000 3895000 15054000 82422000 255100 1305000 811300 2031000 9346000 1407000 777100 145900 266400 2440000 251900 768400 447900 3209000 1714000 786600 1331000 1179000 1655000 1052000 254900 2428000 1478000 1313000 799900 276000 2692000 243400 312300 2321000 519400 717900 5292000 2725000 1044000 738800 2854000 1483000 238600 1951000 6793000 701600 1733000 127400 1527000 1639000 505500 157200
2022-05-16 6647000 30681000 3857000 3610000 6095000 43127000 6051000 7231000 5747000 3574000 3688000 17997000 3899000 15056000 82476000 255100 1305000 811300 2031000 9354000 1410000 778900 146400 266700 2440000 251900 768400 448000 3217000 1715000 788100 1335000 1180000 1660000 1052000 254900 2428000 1478000 1313000 800000 276300 2692000 243900 313700 2325000 519900 717900 5298000 2725000 1044000 740700 2856000 1484000 238600 1951000 6796000 701600 1736000 127700 1535000 1641000 505900 157200
2022-05-17 6683000 30699000 3863000 3613000 6095000 43129000 6051000 7231000 5748000 3575000 3688000 18001000 3906000 15057000 82532000 255100 1306000 811500 2031000 9370000 1411000 780600 147300 266900 2441000 251900 768400 448000 3221000 1715000 789700 1335000 1181000 1663000 1054000 255600 2428000 1481000 1314000 800100 276600 2693000 244300 314000 2330000 520200 718200 5304000 2726000 1045000 742100 2857000 1485000 238600 1951000 6799000 701700 1738000 128000 1536000 1642000 505900 157400
2022-05-18 6719000 30719000 3871000 3616000 6095000 43131000 6052000 7232000 5748000 3575000 3689000 18006000 3914000 15058000 82650000 256700 1306000 811600 2031000 9371000 1412000 782000 147600 266900 2451000 256600 772400 448300 3225000 1717000 791100 1335000 1182000 1666000 1056000 256200 2457000 1483000 1314000 800100 276800 2710000 244700 314500 2335000 520500 721300 5311000 2729000 1046000 743100 2864000 1487000 239000 1953000 6802000 701700 1740000 128200 1538000 1643000 506300 157500
2022-05-19 6759000 30740000 3876000 3622000 6096000 43133000 6052000 7232000 5748000 3576000 3689000 18010000 3923000 15060000 82748000 256700 1306000 811900 2031000 9378000 1412000 783800 148500 267600 2451000 256600 772400 448300 3230000 1717000 792600 1335000 1183000 1670000 1058000 257100 2457000 1486000 1314000 800100 277100 2710000 245100 315100 2340000 521100 721400 5319000 2729000 1049000 744800 2866000 1487000 239000 1953000 6806000 704000 1743000 128500 1539000 1645000 506800 157600
2022-05-20 6799000 30759000 3885000 3625000 6096000 43135000 6053000 7232000 5748000 3576000 3689000 18014000 3931000 15061000 82831000 256700 1307000 812100 2031000 9395000 1415000 785600 148700 268000 2454000 257900 773000 448600 3237000 1719000 793000 1335000 1183000 1675000 1060000 257800 2461000 1488000 1314000 800100 277300 2716000 245500 315600 2345000 521500 722400 5326000 2731000 1049000 746100 2866000 1487000 239000 1953000 6810000 704000 1745000 128800 1543000 1648000 507200 157600

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-14 to 2022-05-20

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
2022-05-13 22180207 139153386 4205380 4116397 1161351 1878527 3915703 25723697 3127256 12127122 1069740 28334484 3384982 1130562 1909948 1535451 16993813 8151187 6002863 4015440 2902270 2504894 1018900 2538274 1429630 3649155
2022-05-14 22181000 139266000 4210000 4117000 1162000 1879000 3916000 25729000 3128000 12132000 1070000 28370000 3389000 1131000 1910000 1537000 17034000 8154000 6004000 4024000 2902000 2505000 1020000 2538000 1430000 3651000
2022-05-15 22186000 139356000 4214000 4118000 1162000 1879000 3916000 25738000 3129000 12132000 1071000 28403000 3393000 1132000 1911000 1538000 17068000 8157000 6004000 4025000 2903000 2506000 1020000 2539000 1430000 3652000
2022-05-16 22212000 139492000 4217000 4128000 1162000 1879000 3917000 25827000 3129000 12132000 1072000 28410000 3396000 1132000 1912000 1539000 17080000 8162000 6004000 4025000 2904000 2506000 1020000 2539000 1430000 3653000
2022-05-17 22237000 139766000 4221000 4133000 1163000 1881000 3918000 25910000 3130000 12182000 1074000 28447000 3401000 1132000 1913000 1540000 17127000 8166000 6005000 4046000 2904000 2506000 1021000 2539000 1430000 3667000
2022-05-18 22253000 140019000 4227000 4134000 1163000 1882000 3919000 26024000 3131000 12182000 1075000 28490000 3407000 1133000 1916000 1541000 17180000 8171000 6005000 4061000 2905000 2506000 1022000 2541000 1431000 3667000
2022-05-19 22269000 140271000 4232000 4150000 1164000 1883000 3920000 26109000 3132000 12183000 1099000 28529000 3412000 1134000 1917000 1543000 17227000 8176000 6006000 4076000 2906000 2508000 1023000 2542000 1431000 3669000
2022-05-20 22283000 140508000 4237000 4151000 1164000 1884000 3921000 26183000 3132000 12236000 1099000 28562000 3418000 1135000 1918000 1544000 17272000 8182000 6006000 4087000 2907000 2509000 1023000 2543000 1431000 3671000

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2022-05-14 to 2022-05-20

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-VTUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2022-05-13 6548368 30664739 3836099 3595968 6095316 43119112 6050211 7227428 5745652 3571516 3687748 17984104 3879434 15051761 82421624 255131 1304710 811249 2030925 9346491 1407276 777063 144675 266366 2439344 251759 768354 447913 3209251 1713834 781592 1330569 1177867 1655179 1051938 254385 2427781 1478208 1312762 799608 275113 2691805 242462 312309 2309888 519369 717898 5279558 2724041 1043373 738830 2850343 1481975 238635 1950515 6792135 701563 1733188 126975 1527142 1639365 505528 157031
2022-05-14 6591000 30681000 3838000 3600000 6096000 43122000 6050000 7228000 5746000 3572000 3688000 17989000 3888000 15053000 82463000 255100 1305000 811400 2032000 9350000 1409000 777900 145100 266600 2440000 252000 768500 448000 3211000 1714000 782300 1331000 1178000 1656000 1053000 255400 2429000 1479000 1313000 799700 275300 2693000 242700 312500 2315000 519500 718000 5287000 2727000 1044000 739200 2853000 1482000 238600 1951000 6795000 701700 1734000 127100 1529000 1640000 505700 157100
2022-05-15 6625000 30685000 3840000 3601000 6096000 43125000 6051000 7228000 5746000 3573000 3688000 17993000 3893000 15054000 82471000 255300 1305000 811500 2032000 9351000 1410000 777900 145200 266600 2441000 252700 768600 448000 3212000 1714000 782500 1331000 1178000 1657000 1053000 255500 2431000 1479000 1313000 799700 275300 2694000 242700 312500 2318000 519500 718200 5292000 2728000 1044000 739300 2856000 1483000 238700 1951000 6796000 701800 1734000 127300 1529000 1641000 505700 157100
2022-05-16 6662000 30692000 3841000 3605000 6096000 43128000 6051000 7229000 5747000 3573000 3688000 17997000 3897000 15055000 82552000 255300 1306000 811600 2033000 9359000 1413000 780800 145300 267100 2441000 253500 768600 448200 3221000 1716000 782800 1336000 1179000 1663000 1054000 255700 2433000 1481000 1313000 800400 275400 2695000 242800 313900 2320000 520000 718500 5299000 2730000 1044000 741400 2859000 1483000 238700 1951000 6798000 701800 1738000 127800 1537000 1644000 506200 157100
2022-05-17 6701000 30712000 3846000 3607000 6096000 43131000 6051000 7229000 5747000 3574000 3688000 18001000 3903000 15057000 82619000 255400 1306000 811800 2033000 9375000 1415000 782300 145800 267300 2442000 254000 768700 448200 3225000 1716000 783200 1336000 1179000 1665000 1057000 256500 2435000 1484000 1314000 800500 275500 2697000 242900 314200 2324000 520300 718800 5307000 2732000 1044000 743000 2862000 1484000 238800 1951000 6801000 701900 1740000 128100 1538000 1646000 506300 157300
2022-05-18 6741000 30731000 3855000 3609000 6096000 43133000 6051000 7229000 5748000 3574000 3689000 18005000 3911000 15058000 82734000 256400 1306000 812000 2036000 9378000 1416000 783700 146000 267400 2446000 256600 771000 448400 3230000 1717000 783500 1336000 1180000 1668000 1059000 257300 2449000 1486000 1314000 800500 275600 2713000 243000 314700 2328000 520500 720400 5314000 2734000 1044000 744100 2867000 1486000 239100 1953000 6804000 701900 1742000 128500 1540000 1648000 506600 157300
2022-05-19 6781000 30748000 3861000 3612000 6097000 43136000 6052000 7230000 5748000 3575000 3689000 18009000 3918000 15059000 82810000 256800 1307000 812200 2036000 9385000 1420000 784900 146300 267900 2448000 257500 771000 448400 3234000 1717000 783800 1336000 1180000 1672000 1060000 258000 2452000 1488000 1314000 800500 275700 2713000 243200 315200 2332000 521000 720900 5323000 2740000 1046000 745600 2870000 1486000 239100 1953000 6808000 703600 1744000 128800 1540000 1651000 506900 157400
2022-05-20 6823000 30763000 3868000 3615000 6097000 43139000 6052000 7230000 5748000 3575000 3689000 18013000 3926000 15060000 82897000 257000 1307000 812300 2037000 9395000 1422000 786100 146400 268100 2449000 258300 771100 448700 3240000 1719000 785400 1336000 1181000 1676000 1061000 258800 2455000 1490000 1315000 800600 275900 2714000 243300 315700 2336000 521300 721300 5330000 2742000 1046000 746900 2872000 1487000 239100 1953000 6811000 703800 1746000 129200 1542000 1653000 507300 157400

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2021-04-29]The `legacy' download for areas of England is stuck at April 26, so we switched to the newer downloads. The results now include Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. The map, however, only shows England.
[2021-01-07]Slideshow of forecasts, errors, and actuals 2020-06-30 to 2021-01-02: how England lost the battle.
[2020-10-27]Statistical short-term forecasting of the COVID-19 Pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now published at the Journal of Clinical Immunology and Immunotherapy. open access
[2020-10-11]Short-term forecasting of the coronavirus pandemic (Jurgen Doornik, Jennie Castle, and David Hendry) is now in press at the International Journal of Forecasting. open access
[2020-10-10]Removed forecasts from the Chinese scenarios, while investigating possibility to use own history from the first wave.
Added information on the previous peak (if present) to the peak tables.
Local forecasts for England: now dropping last four observations.
[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed