COVID-19 short-term forecasts Confirmed 2020-08-07


General information

  • Forecasts produced by Jennie Castle, Jurgen Doornik, and David Hendry, researchers at the University of Oxford. These are our forecasts, and should not be considered official forecasts from, or endorsed by, any of: University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Nuffield College, or Magdalen College.
  • These forecasts are short term time-series extrapolations of the data. They are not based on epidemiological modelling or simulations. All forecasts are uncertain: their success can only be determined afterwards. Many mitigation strategies are in place, which, if successful, invalidate our forecasts. An explanation of our methods is provided below.
  • A list of notes is below. The most recent note:
    [2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
    Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed in Europe 2020-08-07

UKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFIFRGRHRHUIEITNLPLPTROSESISKNOCH
Peak date04-0704-0203-2604-1507-2403-2804-0303-2704-0603-3004-0404-12 --07-1004-1004-1003-2403-31 --04-10 --06-0303-3104-1603-2603-27
Peak daily increment 4726 29652 810 1470 236 278 283 5662 316 8058 146 19786 86 105 1116 5649 1079 830 1337 52 49 240 1139
Days from 100 to peak 36 63 18 38 126 15 22 25 28 26 22 43 113 20 27 30 25 28 89 18 28 19 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 24 24 13 32 125 14 21 14 27 17 22 24 117 23 21 20 19 23 82 21 34 18 17
Last total 309005 1513970 21837 72784 13209 11440 18060 216196 14442 314362 7554 222477 5270 5466 4621 26470 249756 57501 50324 52351 59273 82323 2233 2523 9551 36269
Last daily increment 871 15398 141 768 195 72 329 1157 136 4507 22 3714 147 62 24 98 552 519 809 290 1378 356 10 43 83 161
Last week 5063 69159 625 3382 1373 482 1361 5191 653 25840 111 9446 683 242 95 361 1924 2769 3978 1041 7162 1901 62 186 298 857
Days since peak 122 127 134 114 14 132 126 133 123 130 125 117 28 119 119 136 129 119 65 129 113 134 133

Peak increase in estimated trend of Confirmed 2020-08-07

AustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MEUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NHUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
Peak date08-04 --05-0306-06 -- -- -- --08-0108-0208-0405-0907-1604-1407-1708-0207-16 --07-0707-2004-2404-2005-0104-2607-17 -- --07-1007-1805-12 -- --08-0108-0404-2405-0605-2204-0608-0208-0207-30 --07-18 --05-0105-0104-0807-2207-2403-3107-0308-0207-2404-0907-1605-0907-2807-1507-10 --07-1907-30 --04-21
Peak daily increment 643 1985 7347 6734 12662 4586 10914 12358 4816 66459 110 1770 3634 9198 729 1012 190 197 11116 531 532 2693 603 2118 3307 1017 48 1624 717 1283 1273 1949 441 89 4272 280 1093 9432 1788 945 334 1624 1813 148 2123 9616 499 844 906 86
Days from 100 to peak 147 51 83 136 137 141 52 119 27 130 125 117 107 132 40 30 39 32 123 109 115 58 131 141 40 48 59 21 135 133 131 121 34 38 24 119 126 20 106 131 126 23 117 39 132 120 111 133 134 22
Days from peak/2 to peak 141 43 64 114 113 124 34 75 19 116 129 107 95 114 35 27 40 32 109 104 112 49 125 134 30 41 65 15 128 127 124 112 29 42 16 117 118 12 98 125 124 16 108 41 123 104 108 128 128 27
Last total 20698 2962442 120903 368825 367204 2088611 121226 322567 469407 463875 122754 875378 545476 238450 4941755 3536 94827 46254 185053 546814 49875 50083 12589 15201 517415 190772 3092 48039 23920 190443 72254 30137 33796 128533 119875 93806 4014 90803 59059 51361 65436 4757 133337 7327 27962 6776 183408 20670 54533 419642 98675 42234 20635 122028 98219 9371 112860 491304 34464 97882 61419 58768 7452 3000
Last daily increment 426 50230 516 2154 9494 61537 2473 2450 6717 8466 3294 5191 7292 1185 58173 53 1425 959 1397 5475 457 72 71 76 7672 3944 201 483 524 2080 1239 520 542 1499 409 801 17 748 551 953 1036 155 1535 150 288 37 349 182 976 714 1204 839 411 781 1422 98 2377 7384 350 2015 696 989 174 47
Last week 2803 254565 2380 11167 61023 337888 11290 15815 35214 56383 24522 31488 42186 6581 321163 400 8047 4636 8051 40201 2626 516 384 545 37988 18315 918 2751 2810 10029 5132 2545 3073 12263 2236 4441 79 3899 3999 5594 5555 676 9331 725 1711 163 2035 1139 5459 3875 6588 4528 1818 4560 7620 504 10293 46566 2098 7081 4096 4766 714 231
Days since peak 3 96 62 6 5 3 90 22 115 21 5 22 31 18 105 109 98 103 21 28 20 87 6 3 105 93 77 123 5 5 8 20 98 98 121 16 14 129 35 5 14 120 22 90 10 23 28 19 8 108

Confirmed count forecast Europe (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-08 to 2020-08-14

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-08-07 309005 1513970 21837 72784 13209 11440 18060 216196 14442 314362 222477 5270 5466 26470 249756 57501 50324 52351 59273 82323 9551 36269
2020-08-08 309400 1530000 21950 73420 13440 11620 18220 216200 14550 316500 222500 5390 5620 26520 249800 57920 51540 52540 60380 82320 9607 36410
2020-08-09 310200 1545000 22060 74030 13540 11710 18360 216500 14640 318800 223200 5504 5650 26580 250100 58330 52620 52730 61460 82320 9660 36540
2020-08-10 311000 1559000 22170 74650 13730 11740 18500 217300 14740 321200 224100 5618 5664 26630 250200 58720 53670 52910 62360 82810 9712 36680
2020-08-11 311600 1573000 22280 75250 14000 11810 18630 217900 14840 323600 224900 5728 5690 26690 250400 59160 54880 53080 63520 82940 9761 36810
2020-08-12 312300 1586000 22390 75850 14290 11930 18770 218900 14930 326000 225800 5840 5758 26740 250700 59550 56050 53260 64750 83270 9810 36940
2020-08-13 313200 1600000 22500 76450 14560 12040 18900 219800 15030 328500 226700 5952 5788 26790 251100 60060 57310 53440 66070 83640 9859 37070
2020-08-14 313900 1614000 22610 77050 14790 12120 19040 220700 15120 330900 227500 6064 5842 26850 251600 60530 58630 53610 67400 83940 9909 37200

Confirmed count forecast (bold red line in graphs) 2020-08-08 to 2020-08-14

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-07 20698 2962442 120903 368825 367204 2088611 121226 322567 469407 463875 122754 875378 545476 238450 4941755 3536 94827 46254 185053 546814 49875 50083 12589 15201 517415 190772 3092 48039 23920 190443 72254 30137 33796 128533 119875 93806 90803 59059 51361 65436 4757 133337 7327 27962 183408 20670 54533 419642 98675 42234 20635 122028 98219 9371 112860 491304 34464 97882 61419 58768 7452 3000
2020-08-08 21140 3071000 121300 370800 381900 2143000 124300 325300 478800 470800 127000 880500 553200 239500 4987000 3687 96300 46850 190900 559900 50650 50250 12660 15300 523700 199200 3368 48610 24400 191600 72910 30530 34370 130600 120000 94610 91630 59730 52320 66580 5022 135900 7448 28240 183800 20840 55500 420300 99900 43120 21030 123200 100100 9449 114900 499200 34830 99500 62230 59890 7778 3043
2020-08-09 21560 3141000 121700 372500 395600 2196000 127400 327900 483600 477400 131100 885500 558400 240600 5015000 3826 97700 47450 192000 564600 51080 50360 12720 15390 529300 203900 3510 49020 24870 193000 73700 30780 34940 132500 120400 95420 92180 60390 52550 67720 5149 137200 7567 28500 184100 21010 56470 420900 101100 43990 21310 123700 101900 9523 116900 507100 35180 101000 63000 60760 7950 3085
2020-08-10 21990 3206000 122200 374000 408100 2249000 130600 330600 488200 484100 135300 890500 560500 241600 5043000 3895 99200 48140 192700 569700 51320 50450 12790 15490 535200 208300 3818 49220 25340 194300 74290 31320 35500 134300 120600 96200 92690 61040 53060 68840 5231 139000 7685 28770 184500 21180 57430 421500 102200 44850 21560 124600 103600 9598 118900 514900 35540 102500 63750 61190 8125 3126
2020-08-11 22420 3306000 122600 375300 420000 2301000 134000 333200 494500 490500 139400 895400 563800 242600 5083000 3959 100600 48890 194200 579400 51800 50540 12850 15580 540700 213700 3942 49490 25800 195400 75050 31620 36050 136100 121000 96980 93360 61680 53850 69970 5353 140300 7801 29030 184800 21340 58390 422100 103400 45720 21880 125400 105400 9669 120800 522800 35890 104000 64500 61940 8307 3168
2020-08-12 22850 3427000 123000 376700 432700 2354000 137500 335800 500200 497000 143700 900300 570700 243600 5125000 4018 102100 49660 196000 586000 52340 50640 12920 15670 546200 219000 4189 50090 26260 197000 75710 32090 36620 137900 121500 97770 94080 62320 54710 71110 5463 141600 7918 29290 185100 21500 59360 422700 104600 46590 22140 126200 107200 9741 122800 530600 36240 105400 65240 62770 8486 3210
2020-08-13 23290 3546000 123400 378300 448200 2408000 141100 338500 507100 503500 148000 905200 576800 244600 5166000 4069 103500 50400 197300 594700 52760 50730 12980 15760 551700 224500 4417 50760 26730 198800 76720 32430 37180 139800 121800 98570 94830 62970 55540 72260 5612 143400 8036 29550 185500 21670 60340 423400 105700 47470 22420 126900 108900 9813 124800 538600 36600 106900 65990 63660 8696 3252
2020-08-14 23730 3647000 123800 380300 463500 2462000 144700 341100 514000 510100 152300 910200 584600 245600 5224000 4138 105000 51270 199200 601100 53250 50820 13050 15850 557200 231500 4622 51230 27200 200700 77830 32920 37750 141600 122100 99360 95530 63620 56520 73420 5810 145000 8155 29810 185800 21830 61320 424000 106900 48360 22800 127700 110700 9886 126800 546600 36950 108400 66740 64560 8933 3295

Confirmed count average forecast Europe (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-08 to 2020-08-14

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCH
2020-08-07 309005 1513970 21837 72784 13209 11440 18060 216196 14442 314362 222477 5270 5466 26470 249756 57501 50324 52351 59273 82323 9551 36269
2020-08-08 309300 1517000 21910 73130 13370 11550 18200 216200 14480 316300 222500 5310 5514 26480 249800 57700 51280 52430 60400 82320 9564 36360
2020-08-09 309900 1521000 22000 73610 13510 11630 18340 216300 14530 319600 222700 5373 5551 26510 249800 58060 52350 52540 61630 82320 9581 36490
2020-08-10 310600 1528000 22080 74130 13710 11660 18540 216500 14590 323700 223000 5449 5580 26550 249900 58430 53410 52690 62790 82460 9604 36610
2020-08-11 311200 1536000 22170 74650 13950 11740 18770 216800 14650 327000 223300 5547 5612 26590 250000 58840 54540 52840 64090 82530 9632 36730
2020-08-12 311800 1542000 22270 75190 14220 11860 19000 217200 14720 330300 223600 5644 5673 26640 250100 59230 55670 52980 65440 82690 9661 36850
2020-08-13 312400 1549000 22370 75760 14470 11980 19230 217500 14800 333900 224200 5730 5728 26680 250300 59620 56860 53130 66830 82840 9691 36970
2020-08-14 313000 1557000 22470 76320 14710 12080 19460 217800 14870 338500 224900 5818 5788 26730 250400 60020 58090 53270 68230 82980 9717 37090

Confirmed count average forecast (bold black line in graphs) 2020-08-08 to 2020-08-14

DateAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-07 20698 2962442 120903 368825 367204 2088611 121226 322567 469407 463875 122754 875378 545476 238450 4941755 3536 94827 46254 185053 546814 49875 50083 12589 15201 517415 190772 3092 48039 23920 190443 72254 30137 33796 128533 119875 93806 90803 59059 51361 65436 4757 133337 7327 27962 183408 20670 54533 419642 98675 42234 20635 122028 98219 9371 112860 491304 34464 97882 61419 58768 7452 3000
2020-08-08 21150 3031000 121200 370500 379500 2138000 123700 324300 476700 467900 126600 878400 550800 239200 4978000 3613 96000 46790 187000 550200 50350 50160 12650 15290 521600 195400 3199 48370 24120 191600 72670 30350 34340 129000 120000 94630 91440 59700 52250 66450 4889 134900 7429 28190 183800 20790 55360 420100 99600 43090 20920 122700 99200 9436 114500 495900 34720 98300 62200 59680 7630 3041
2020-08-09 21570 3096000 121500 372300 393300 2193000 126500 326200 482300 473500 131000 881700 557300 240100 5011000 3714 97500 47450 188400 554000 50770 50250 12720 15380 527000 199900 3319 48760 24440 193100 73470 30640 34910 131300 120200 95420 91990 60380 53160 67530 5005 136100 7544 28470 184100 20960 56320 420700 100400 44010 21210 123300 100500 9511 116300 499600 35040 99400 62860 60520 7796 3081
2020-08-10 21980 3159000 121900 373900 407200 2250000 129400 328100 487900 479300 135500 884900 562400 241100 5044000 3809 98800 48170 189400 558500 51010 50330 12770 15470 532500 204100 3542 49070 24850 194600 74230 31080 35470 132800 120400 96210 92530 61050 54250 68560 5089 138000 7664 28750 184500 21100 57240 421300 101300 44930 21500 124200 101700 9578 118200 506700 35370 100400 63450 60900 7958 3124
2020-08-11 22480 3254000 122200 375300 421200 2308000 132700 330000 494400 485400 140100 888000 567800 242100 5087000 3905 99900 48950 191000 566700 51470 50410 12840 15560 538400 209400 3711 49420 25270 195900 75040 31390 36040 134900 120600 96940 93180 61730 55490 69710 5213 139300 7788 29030 184900 21280 58190 421900 102400 45870 21800 125000 103000 9646 120100 514800 35700 101500 64080 61630 8112 3168
2020-08-12 22980 3374000 122500 376900 436100 2366000 136100 331800 500500 491600 144700 891000 575100 243000 5135000 4002 101000 49720 192900 573400 52040 50500 12900 15650 544300 215000 3856 49940 25700 197500 75840 31830 36620 136700 120900 97690 93900 62420 56820 71030 5371 140600 7910 29300 185200 21520 59070 422500 103600 46830 22100 125800 104200 9733 122100 524600 36030 102600 64780 62530 8289 3211
2020-08-13 23450 3487000 122800 378900 452000 2431000 139400 333600 507400 498000 149600 893900 582600 244000 5181000 4102 102700 50510 194900 581400 52520 50580 12970 15750 550400 221000 4059 50490 26130 199200 76700 32210 37210 138400 121100 98480 94670 63110 58110 72240 5538 142700 8034 29590 185600 21730 60050 423100 105000 47810 22430 126700 105600 9809 124200 533000 36370 103600 65540 63570 8491 3255
2020-08-14 23880 3599000 123100 381000 468600 2496000 143100 335300 514800 504400 154500 896600 590600 245000 5234000 4206 104300 51330 197500 588000 53080 50670 13030 15840 556500 228100 4290 50960 26570 200900 77600 32670 37800 140300 121300 99430 95380 63820 59560 73420 5717 144600 8165 29870 186000 21920 61090 423700 106500 48800 22780 127600 106900 9890 126400 541700 36700 104700 66020 64490 8718 3301

Confirmed count scenario forecast (bold purple line in graphs) 2020-08-08 to 2020-08-16

DateUKEUATBEBGBSCZDEDKESFRGRHRIEITNLPLPTROSENOCHAustraliaBrazilCanadaChileColombiaIndiaIndonesiaIranMexicoPeruPhilippinesRussiaSouth AfricaTurkeyUSUS-AKUS-ALUS-ARUS-AZUS-CAUS-COUS-CTUS-DCUS-DEUS-FLUS-GAUS-HIUS-IAUS-IDUS-ILUS-INUS-KSUS-KYUS-LAUS-MAUS-MDUS-MIUS-MNUS-MOUS-MSUS-MTUS-NCUS-NDUS-NEUS-NJUS-NMUS-NVUS-NYUS-OHUS-OKUS-ORUS-PAUS-SCUS-SDUS-TNUS-TXUS-UTUS-VAUS-WAUS-WIUS-WVUS-WY
2020-08-07 309005 1513970 21837 72784 13209 11440 18060 216196 14442 314362 222477 5270 5466 26470 249756 57501 50324 52351 59273 82323 9551 36269 20698 2962442 120903 368825 367204 2088611 121226 322567 469407 463875 122754 875378 545476 238450 4941755 3536 94827 46254 185053 546814 49875 50083 12589 15201 517415 190772 3092 48039 23920 190443 72254 30137 33796 128533 119875 93806 90803 59059 51361 65436 4757 133337 7327 27962 183408 20670 54533 419642 98675 42234 20635 122028 98219 9371 112860 491304 34464 97882 61419 58768 7452 3000
2020-08-08 309600 1525000 21940 73310 13450 11550 18420 216600 14500 317000 222500 5329 5589 26490 249900 58070 51390 52540 60740 82320 9589 36400 21210 3026000 121300 370300 378800 2139000 123600 328300 477700 472800 128100 879500 551100 239400 4978000 3682 96200 47070 187100 555100 50840 50230 12660 15320 520800 194700 3233 48780 24100 191600 73540 30690 34590 131000 120200 94730 91480 60330 53020 66840 4849 134900 7463 28250 183900 20810 55440 420300 99700 43380 21030 123000 99300 9423 114400 496800 34750 99400 62070 59650 7600 3041
2020-08-09 310300 1537000 22050 73760 13640 11630 18710 217400 14590 320700 222500 5406 5664 26540 250300 58610 52030 52730 62050 82340 9635 36560 21630 3081000 121700 371700 392500 2207000 125200 335000 484500 479100 131800 884200 555800 240500 5025000 3790 97300 47720 188500 560200 51400 50330 12720 15420 524100 198900 3503 49470 24430 193200 74700 31080 35180 133200 120400 95470 92140 61230 54490 67470 4953 136300 7569 28530 184300 20940 56150 420900 100600 44280 21340 123800 100100 9510 115900 502900 35000 100900 62730 60310 7764 3078
2020-08-10 310900 1547000 22150 74260 13810 11720 18960 218100 14700 325300 223900 5487 5712 26590 250600 58940 52780 52900 63140 82430 9696 36730 21990 3130000 122000 372900 403700 2246000 127500 338400 489300 483500 134600 888800 560700 241500 5060000 3856 98400 48340 189900 566200 52060 50410 12780 15520 527800 202000 3685 50140 24780 194800 75700 31580 35790 134900 120800 96300 92780 62000 55470 68460 5044 137700 7705 28790 184700 21060 56800 421500 101400 45120 21720 124600 101000 9590 117300 508400 35270 102100 63340 61040 7881 3112
2020-08-11 311600 1555000 22250 74660 13970 11790 19160 218700 14770 328800 224800 5547 5782 26630 251100 59070 53530 53070 64500 82520 9741 36910 22340 3168000 122400 374000 413400 2297000 129000 340800 494300 491500 138700 893100 565000 242400 5090000 3927 99200 48960 191300 571600 52590 50480 12830 15620 530700 205100 3784 50560 25140 196100 76530 31780 36380 136800 121000 97110 93400 62590 56570 69350 5127 139000 7769 29040 185100 21160 57470 422100 102200 46020 21930 125400 101900 9661 118600 514100 35540 103000 63940 61720 7969 3148
2020-08-12 312200 1559000 22360 75050 14060 11880 19260 219600 14810 333700 225500 5560 5813 26670 251700 59300 53630 53190 65600 82590 9791 37090 22610 3216000 122800 374900 423900 2355000 131100 343000 500100 492100 143200 897000 569000 243300 5125000 3988 100200 49020 192500 576900 52800 50550 12890 15720 533700 208600 4083 50560 25440 197300 76910 31920 36940 138000 121300 97860 94000 63250 57830 70180 5215 140200 7791 29270 185500 21270 58040 422700 102900 46810 22140 126100 102700 9734 120000 518700 35730 103200 64460 62400 8108 3183
2020-08-13 312900 1564000 22480 75430 14130 11970 19540 220400 14810 336800 226100 5560 5867 26710 251900 59410 53660 53300 66640 82650 9838 37250 22820 3272000 123100 375600 433600 2397000 132700 343100 502000 492900 145600 901300 572400 244300 5156000 4032 101100 49210 193400 580800 53010 50600 12940 15830 535700 211200 4178 50850 25730 198600 77440 32080 37540 140100 121600 98360 94600 63440 58740 70760 5296 141300 7839 29520 185800 21370 58590 423100 103500 47550 22450 126700 103600 9793 121200 522900 35920 103300 64960 63070 8218 3214
2020-08-14 313600 1566000 22580 75640 14260 12050 19760 221200 14810 339100 226700 5562 5892 26760 252300 59570 53720 53420 67720 82730 9881 37470 23140 3308000 123500 376100 441300 2425000 134100 344300 505000 493100 147900 905000 575500 245200 5184000 4092 101800 49520 194200 586400 53010 50660 12990 15930 538200 214100 4442 51100 25960 199700 77830 32180 37990 142000 121800 98970 95180 63700 59810 71330 5382 142200 7893 29770 186100 21480 59080 423600 104000 48300 22630 127400 104200 9857 122200 527000 36110 103500 65400 63760 8289 3243
2020-08-15 314500 1569000 22690 75740 14340 12140 19900 222000 14810 341400 227100 5573 5927 26800 252600 59680 53720 53450 68680 82760 9921 37670 23340 3340000 123700 376500 450200 2465000 135400 344500 509300 493700 148800 908400 579000 245700 5215000 4156 102600 49740 194900 589300 53010 50670 13050 16040 541200 217000 4608 51100 26150 200800 77880 32290 38460 143600 122100 99380 95600 63860 60690 71790 5452 143400 7926 30020 186400 21600 59490 424100 104500 48970 22950 128200 104800 9922 123300 531000 36280 103600 65840 64300 8379 3269
2020-08-16 314700 1569000 22830 75930 14440 12230 20010 222700 14810 343800 227100 5589 5970 26820 252900 59760 53890 53460 69640 82840 9956 37880 23650 3380000 124000 377000 459900 2507000 136600 346200 509800 494900 149400 911700 582400 245800 5248000 4222 103200 50140 195800 593500 53010 50680 13100 16160 544400 219500 4734 51100 26370 201600 78180 32530 38880 145000 122300 99480 95970 64060 61510 72360 5511 144400 8005 30240 186600 21680 59790 424400 105000 49670 23090 128800 105400 9977 124500 534600 36420 104200 66260 64630 8453 3296

Further information

  • We believe these forecasts fill a useful gap in the short run. They give an indication of what is likely to happen in the next few days, removing some aspect of surprise. Moreover, a noticeable drop in comparison to the extrapolations could be an indication that the implemented policies are having some impact. It is difficult to understand exponential growth. We hope that these forecasts may help to convince viewers to adhere to the policies implemented by their respective governments, and keep all arguments factual and measured.
  • We use the data repository for the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Visual Dashboard operated by the Johns Hopkins University Center for Systems Science and Engineering. This is updated daily, but we tend to update our forecasts only every other day.
    US state data as of 2020-03-28 is courtesy of the New York Times.
  • We can only provide forecasts of what is measured. If confirmed cases are an underestimate of actual cases, then our forecasts will also be underestimates. No other epidemiological data is used. Data definition and collection differs between countries and may change over time.
  • We will update the methodology as we learn what is happening in the next few days or weeks. Once the number of cases levels off, there is no need to provide these forecasts anymore.
  • Countries where the counts are very low or stable have been omitted.
  • The graphs have dates on the horizontal axis (yyyy-mm-dd) and cumulative counts on the vertical axis. They show
    1. bold dark grey line (with circles): observed counts (Johns Hopkins CSSE);
    2. many light grey lines (with open circles): forecasts using different model settings and starting up to four periods back;
    3. red line (with open circles): single forecasts path using default model settings;
    4. black line (with crosses): average of all forecasts, recentered on the last observation;
    5. thin green lines: some indication of uncertainty around the red forecasts, but we do not know how reliable that is.
    Both the red line forecasts and the black lines are also given in the tables above. These forecasts differ, we are currently inclined to use the average forecasts.
  • The forecasts are constructed as follows:
    1. An overall `trend' is extracted by taking a window of the data at a time. In each window we draw `straight lines' which are selected using an automatic econometric procedure (`machine learning'). All straight lines are collected and averaged, giving the trend.
    2. Forecasts are made using the estimated trend, but we note that this must be done carefully, because simply extrapolating the flexible insample trend would lead to wildly fluctuating forecast. We use the `Cardt' method, which has been found to work well in other settings.
    3. Residuals from the trend are also forecast, and combined with trend forecasts into an overall forecast.
  • Scenario forecasts are constructed very differently: smooth versions of the Chinese experience are matched at different lag lengths with the path of each country. This probably works best from the peak, or the slowdown just before (but we include it for the UK nonetheless).
  • The forecast evaluation shows past forecasts, together with the outcomes (in the grey line with circles).
  • EU-BS is Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania together.
  • This paper describes the methodology and gives further references. Also available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06. Still preliminary is the documentation of the medium term forecasts.

Recent changes and notes

[2020-07-01] Modified the short-term model to allow for (slowly changing) seasonality. Many countries show clear seasonality after the initial period, likely caused by institutional factors regarding data collection. This seasonality was also getting in the way of peak detection. As a consequence estimates of the peak date may have changed for countries with strong seasonality.
Added forecasts of cumulative confirmed cases for lower tier local authorities of England. The data is available from 2020-07-02 including all tests (pillar one and two). Only authorities with more than 5 cases in the previous week are included.
[2020-06-29] Tables in April included the world, but not the world as we know it (double counting China and the US). So removed the world from those old tables.
Why short-term forecasts can be better than models for predicting how pandemics evolve just appeared at The Conversation.
Thursday 2 July webinar at the FGV EESP - São Paolo School of Economics. This starts at 16:00 UK time (UTC+01:00) and streamed here.
[2020-06-24] Research presentation on short-term COVID-19 forecasting on 26 June (14:00 UK time) at the Quarterly Forecasting Forum of the IIF UK Chapter.
[2020-06-06] Removed Brazil from yesterday's forecasts (only; last observation 2020-06-05).
[2020-06-04] Data issues with confirmed cases for France.
Added an appendix to the short term paper with further forecast comparisons for European and Latin American countries.
Both Sweden and Iran have lost their peak in confirmed cases. For Sweden the previous peak was on 24 April (daily peak of 656 cases), for Iran it was on 31 March (peak of 3116). For Iran this looks like a second wave, with increasing daily counts for the last four weeks. For Sweden this is a sudden jump in confirmed cases in the last two days, compared to a fairly steady weekly pattern over the previous six weeks.
[2020-05-20] Problem with UK confirmed cases: negative daily count. This makes the forecasts temporarily unreliable.
Updated the second paper.
[2020-05-18] Minor fixes to the improved version of scenario forecasting, backported to 2020-05-13.
[2020-05-13] We now omit countries with fewer than 200 confirmed cases in the last week (25 for deaths).
The short-term paper has some small updates, including further comparisons with other models.
Data for Ecuador are not reliable enough for forecasting.
Switched to an improved version of scenario forecasting.
[2020-05-06] The New York Times is in the process of redefining its US state data. Unfortunately, at the moment only the last observation has changed (e.g New York deaths jumped from 19645 on 2020-05-05 to 25956 a day later). This means the data is currently useless; however it does bring it close to the Johns Hopkins/CSSE count (25626 on 2020-05-06). The aggregate US count is based on JH/CSSE so unaffected. We now use Johns Hopkins/CSSE US state data, including all states with sufficient counts. So the new forecasts cannot be compared to those previously.
A minor change is that we show the graph without scenario forecast if no peak has been detected yet.
[2020-04-29] See our blog entry at the International Institute of Forecasters.
US history of death counts revised in Johns Hopkins/CSSE data.
UK death counts have been revised to include the deaths in care homes. In the Johns Hopkins/CSSE data set, which we use, the entire history has been revised. So forecasts made up to 2020-04-29 cannot be compared to later outcomes. In the ECDC data set only the last observation has changed, causing a jump in the series.
[2020-04-27] Our short-term COVID-19 forecasting paper is now available as Nuffield Economics Discussion Paper 2020-W06.
A small adjustment has been made to the scenario forecast methodology, and will be documented shortly.
[2020-04-24] A summary of our work on short-term COVID-19 forecasting appeared as a voxeu.
[2020-04-17] Bird and Nielsen look into nowcasting death counts in England.
[2020-04-16] Added scenario forecasts to all graphs now. This would now be the preferred forecast for most.
This is the first time with a peak in confirmed UK cases (also for deaths, but this is uncertain because it is at the same date).
[2020-04-10] Updated documentation with better description of short-term estimates and peak determination.
[2020-04-09] Added table with estimated peak dates (if happened) and dates to and since the peak. Note that this can be a local peak, and subsequent re-acceleration (or data revisions) can result in a new peak later.
[2020-04-08] Minor correction to peak estimates. Added table with scenario forecasts.
[2020-04-06] Added a post hoc estimate of the peak number of cases. This needs at least three confirmed observations (four for deaths) after the event. It is based on the averaged smooth trend, and can change later or be a local peak. It is marked with a vertical line with the date label, or a date with left arrow in the bottom left corner of the graph. This is backported to 2020-04-04.
[2020-04-02] Now including more US States, based on New York Times data.
[2020-03-31] Scenario forecasts, based on what happened in China earlier this year, are presented for several countries (line marked with x). Created more plausible 90% confidence bands (dotted line in same colour).
[2020-03-26] Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, only for Italy.
[2020-03-24] Our forecasts are starting to overestimate in some cases. This was always expected to happen when the increase starts to slow down. Scenario forecasts that are based on what happened in China earlier this year, but only for Italy and Spain sofar.

Initial visual evaluation of forecasts of Confirmed